Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday. December 13

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LA CHARGERS (10 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 2) - 12/13/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 123-91 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 123-91 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 99-71 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday. December 15

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HOUSTON (9 - 4) at NY JETS (4 - 9) - 12/15/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (5 - 7 - 1) at DENVER (6 - 7) - 12/15/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday. December 16

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MIAMI (7 - 6) at MINNESOTA (6 - 5 - 1) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (3 - 10) at CINCINNATI (5 - 8) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 51-84 ATS (-41.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-61 ATS (-31.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 39-81 ATS (-50.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 34-58 ATS (-29.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (5 - 8) at BALTIMORE (7 - 6) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (8 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 6) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (5 - 8) at BUFFALO (4 - 9) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (5 - 7 - 1) at CHICAGO (9 - 4) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 192-137 ATS (+41.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 63-39 ATS (+20.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CHICAGO is 52-79 ATS (-34.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (7 - 6) at NY GIANTS (5 - 8) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 52-28 ATS (+21.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (6 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 9) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 10) at ATLANTA (4 - 9) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
ATLANTA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (7 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 10) - 12/16/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 69-40 ATS (+25.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (9 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 5 - 1) - 12/16/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (6 - 7) at LA RAMS (11 - 2) - 12/16/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 189-238 ATS (-72.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 189-238 ATS (-72.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 135-188 ATS (-71.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 146-189 ATS (-61.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 66-101 ATS (-45.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday. December 17

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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 2) at CAROLINA (6 - 7) - 12/17/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 116-86 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday. December 13

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 12 games on the road
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games
Kansas City is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 11 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers



Saturday. December 15

Houston Texans
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games
Houston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Houston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Jets's last 10 games
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
NY Jets is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
NY Jets is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 5-19-1 SU in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Cleveland's last 21 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Denver is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Cleveland



Sunday. December 16

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games
Green Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Green Bay is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay's last 18 games on the road
Green Bay is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games
Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Green Bay
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
Miami is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games
Minnesota is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Minnesota is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Buffalo's last 22 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Arizona's last 24 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Arizona
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games
Oakland is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Oakland's last 20 games
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing Oakland
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
NY Giants is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Giants's last 18 games at home
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

Washington Redskins
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 1-6-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Jacksonville is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Jacksonville is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 22 games
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 10 games on the road
Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indianapolis's last 19 games at home
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Dallas

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 13 games on the road
Seattle is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games at home
San Francisco is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games at home
San Francisco is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Francisco's last 12 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle

New England Patriots
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
New England is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
New England is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games on the road
New England is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Pittsburgh is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games at home
Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing New England
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Rams is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
LA Rams is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
LA Rams is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia



Monday. December 17

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New Orleans's last 15 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina's last 15 games when playing at home against New Orleans

[StarDust Bum]

Week 15

Thursday

Chargers (10-3) @ Chiefs (11-2)— First place in AFC West is at stake here; Chiefs won last nine series games, winning last four played here, by 12-7-6-13 points. KC won first meeting this year 38-28 (+3.5) in Week 1, even though Bolts outgained them 541-362- Rivers threw for 418 yards, but LA was -2 in turnovers (0-2). Chargers won nine of their last ten games, are 6-0 outside of LA this season; they’re 25-13-1 vs spread in last 39 games as road underdogs, 2-1 this year. Chiefs won six of last seven games; they scored 40-51 points in their two LOSSES this year. KC is 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorites (0-3 this year)- they were outscored in second half of their last our games. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Charger games, four of last five KC games went over.

Saturday

Texans (9-4) @ Jets (4-9)— Houston had its 9-game win streak snapped at home by Indy LW; Texans won their last four road games, three by either 2-3 points- they’re 4-3 vs spread in last seven games as a road favorite (0-2 this year). Texans are +6 in turnovers their last three games, with no giveaways. Jets snapped a 6-game losing skid with win at Buffalo LW; they’re 2-4 at home, with all four losses by 8+ points. Under Bowles, Gang Green is 10-6-1 as home underdog, but 0-2 this year. Houston won last two series games, 23-17/24-17, after losing previous five meetings; Texans lost three of four series games played here. Three of last four Jet games went over the total; six of last nine Houston games stayed under.

Browns (5-7-1) @ Broncos (6-7)— Cleveland won three of last four games; Gregg Williams is making strong case to be Browns’ coach in ’19. Browns are 1-5 SU on road, 2-3-1 as AU; last four years, they’re 10-19-1 as road dogs. Broncos won three of last four games but lost at 49ers LW, a bad loss; they’re +9 in turnovers in those four games, with only one giveaway. Denver is 3-3 SU at home, 0-2-1 as home favorite- under Joseph, Broncos are 1-5-1 vs spread as AU. Denver won last seven series games, winning last meeting 26-23 in OT three years ago. Browns lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 21+ points. Three of last four Cleveland games stayed under; last six Denver games also stayed under the total.

Sunday

Dolphins (7-6) @ Vikings (6-6-1)— Minnesota lost four of its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home this year- under Zimmer, they’re 21-7 vs spread as home favorites, 4-2 this year. Vikings scored 10-7 points in last two games, scoring only two TD’s on last 23 drives. Dolphins won last two games to get back in playoff race; they lost their last five road games, with four losses by 10+ points; under Gase, Fish are 7-13 as road underdogs, 2-4 this year. Miami is 8-4 in series, winning last three meetings by 4-4-2 points; five of last six series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Dolphins lost three of last four visits here; they’ll be glad there’s a dome. Five of last six Minnesota games stayed under total; under is 3-1-1 in last five Miami games.

Raiders (3-10) @ Bengals (5-8)— Not much to see here; Oakland split its last four games after a 1-8 start; they’re 1-6 away from home this year, 2-4 vs spread as road underdogs. Raiders are 3-9-1 vs spread in last 13 games as AU- they fired their GM Monday. Bengals are 0-5 since their bye (2-3 vs spread); Cincy is 3-4 at home, 1-3 as home favorite- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as HF. Bengals held Chargers to 288 TY in 26-21 loss LW, so neither side has quit trying. Cincy won three of last four series games; Raiders lost last two visits here by 24-17 points- their last win here was in ’95. Three of last four Oakland games, four of last six Bengal games went over the total, but both Driskel starts stayed under.

Buccaneers (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6)— Ravens’ QB Jackson (3-1 as starter) sprained ankle late in LW’s OT loss; check status for this- Flacco should be active to play if Jackson doesn’t. Ravens won three of last four games; they’re 4-2 SU at home, 3-3 as HF- last three years, they’re 10-9 as HF. Tampa Bay let Saints slip away LW after leading 14-3 at half; Bucs lost five of last seven games- they led last three at half. Tampa lost last five road games after winning opener in New Orleans- they’re 2-3-1 as AU this year, 3-6-1 last two years. Baltimore won last three series games, by 17-7-31 points; Bucs split their two visits here. Over is 3-1 in Jackson’s starts; four of last five Tampa Bay games stayed under. Ravens are tied for #6 seed in AFC.

Cowboys (8-5) @ Colts (7-6)— Two hot clubs; Dallas won/covered its last five games, Colts won six of last seven. Cowboys are 2-4 SU on road, winning last two- under Garrett, they’re 24-17 vs spread as road underdogs, 3-3 this year. In their last five games, Dallas ran ball for 138.2 ypg. Indy is 4-2 SU at home, 2-3-1 as HF; last four years, Colts are 9-10-1 as HF. lots are -4 in turnovers last three games and ran ball for only 41-50 yards last two weeks; three of their last four wins were by exactly three points. Dallas won last three series games, by 7-3-35 points, winning 42-7 in last meeting in ’14. Cowboys won 38-35 in OT in last visit here, in ’10. Four of last six Dallas games went over total; under is 3-0-1 in Colts’ last four games.

Lions (5-8) @ Bills (4-9)— Detroit coach Patricia worked for Patriots, so he is familiar with trips to western NY. Lions lost five of their last seven games; they’re 2-4 SU on road, 2-2 as AU; they are 14-20 vs spread in last 34 games as AU. Bills lost six of last eight games; their last three were all decided by 4 or fewer points. Buffalo is 2-4 at home, with wins by 1-3 points; they’re 9-4-1 in last 14 games as home favorite- LW was first time this season they were favored. In their last four games, Bills ran ball for 183 yards/game. Buffalo won four of last five series games; last three were all decided by 3 or fewer points. Detroit lost its last three visits here, by 9-7-2 points. Four of last five Buffalo games went over total; six of last seven Detroit games stayed under.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL (PROFESSIONAL)

SATURDAY DECEMBER 15, 2018

Houston
@
NY Jets
Game 303-304
December 15, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating: Houston
135.618
NY Jets
122.991
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Houston
by 12 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Houston
by 6
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston
(-6); Over

Cleveland
@
Denver
Game 305-306
December 15, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating: Cleveland
131.972
Denver
131.846
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Cleveland
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Denver
by 3
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland
(+3); Under

SUNDAY DECEMBER 16, 2018

Miami
@
Minnesota
Game 307-308
December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Miami
124.305
Minnesota
136.757
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Minnesota
by 2 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Minnesota
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota
(-7); Under

Oakland
@
Cincinnati
Game 309-310
December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Oakland
125.127
Cincinnati
126.002
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Cincinnati
by 1
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Cincinnati
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland
(+3 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay
@
Baltimore
Game 311-312
December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Tampa Bay
125.134
Baltimore
139.811
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Baltimore
by 14 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Baltimore
by 8
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore
(-8); Under

Dallas
@
Indianapolis
Game 313-314
December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Dallas
136.159
Indianapolis
134.330
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Dallas
by 2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Indianapolis
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick: Dallas
(+3); Under

Detroit
@
Buffalo
Game 315-316
December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Detroit
124.772
Buffalo
128.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Buffalo
by 4
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Buffalo
by 2
38
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo
(-2); Over

Green Bay
@
Chicago
Game 317-318
December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Green Bay
130.826
Chicago
138.749
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Chicago
by 8 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Chicago
by 5 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago
(-5 1/2); Over

Tennessee
@
NY Giants
Game 319-320
December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Tennessee
132.817
NY Giants
132.250
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Tennessee
by 1
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: NY Giants
by 2 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee
(+2 1/2); Over

Washington
@
Jacksonville
Game 321-322
December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Washington
121.957
Jacksonville
125.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Jacksonville
by 7 1/2
36
Dunkel Pick: Washington
(+7 1/2); Under

Arizona
@
Atlanta
Game 323-324
December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Arizona
121.504
Atlanta
126.404
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Atlanta
by 5
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Atlanta
by 9
44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona
(+9); Over

Seattle
@
San Francisco
Game 325-326
December 16, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating: Seattle
132.337
San Francisco
128.976
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Seattle
by 3 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Seattle
by 6 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco
(+6 1/2); Over

New England
@
Pittsburgh
Game 327-328
December 16, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating: New England
00.000
Pittsburgh
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: New England

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: New England

Dunkel Pick: New England
( );

Philadelphia
@
LA Rams
Game 329-330
December 16, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating: Philadelphia
130.231
LA Rams
136.938
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: LA Rams
by 6 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: LA Rams
by 9 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia
(+9 1/2); Over

MONDAY DECEMBER 17, 2018

New Orleans
@
Carolina
Game 331-332
December 17, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating: New Orleans
138.483
Carolina
134.573
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: New Orleans
by 4
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: New Orleans
by 6 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick: Carolina
(+6 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 15
December 11, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, DEC. 13

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs have owned this series, won last 9 SU vs. Bolts, and KC 8-2 vs. spread last ten in series. Bolts are 5-1 vs. spread as visitor TY (not counting London vs. Titans) and 3-0 as dog, and Chiefs only one cover last six in 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on series trends.

SATURDAY, DEC. 15

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at N.Y. JETS (NFL, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Texans have won nine of last ten last SU and are 5-2 vs. spread last seven TY. Jets 2-5 last 7 and 4-8 last 12 vs. line TY, no covers last three at home.
Tech Edge: Texans, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at DENVER (NFL, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Denver 6-2 last eight vs. spread in 2018. Broncos also “under” 10-3 TY and 13-4 last 17 since late 2017. Browns 7-4 as dog this season.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on recent “totals” trends.

SUNDAY, DEC. 16

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Miami only 2-4 vs. spread away TY but is 8-5 overall vs. number and has covered last three. Tannehill 5-2 vs. spread in games he has started. Also “under” 6-1 last seven away. Vikings “under” 5 of last 6 TY and “under” 8-1 last nine at home in reg season.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Dolphins, based on “totals” and trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy on 1-7 SU and 2-6 spread slide. Oakland 5-8 vs. line TY, on 7-17-3 spread skid since early last season, though has covered three of last four. Raiders “over” thre eof last four TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Raiders and “over”, based on recent team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens have covered last three with Lamar Jackson in lineup. Bucs on 9-5 “over” run since late 2017 though “under” last three.
Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at INDIANAPOLIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dallas has now won and covered last five in 2018 and has covered 3 of last 4 on road. Colts however 6-1 SU last seven TY “under” last 4.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Cowboys, based on recent “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions 2-5 vs. spread last seven in 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Pack 0-8 SU, 1-6-1 vs. line last 8 away since last LY. Though they have won 8 straight at Soldier Field dating to 2010 NFC title game. Bears 7-1 SU and vs. line at home since late 2017. Last four “over” in series.
Tech Edge: Bears and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at N.Y. GIANTS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli 4-0-1 vs. line last five TY, though only 1-4-1 vs. spread at MetLife. Titans snapped 3-game spread skid with win over Jags but only 2-4 vs. spread as visitor TY (not counting London game).
Tech Edge: Giants, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 1-9 SU and 1-6-2 vs. line last nine TY, but they are 3-2-1 vs. spread at home. Jags “under” 4-1 last five at home. Skins “under” 6-2 last 8 away since late LY.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards 6-4-1 last eleven vs. spread TY, 3-1-1 last five away. Falcs only 3-10 vs. line in 2018. Atlanta no covers last five, 1-4 last five vs. points at Mercedes-Benz.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Hawks 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 in 2018, covered last four away. Niners 2-5 last seven vs. line. Hawks have won last ten in series and 8-2 vs. spread in those.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Belichick has won last five and six of last seven SU vs. Tomlin, 5-1-1 vs. line. Steelers no SU wins last three or covers last four TY (0-3-1). Belichick “under” 12-6 in reg season since mid 2017. Steel however “over” 7-1 last eight at Heinz Field.
Tech Edge: Patriots, based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at L.A. RAMS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Rams surprisingly only 2 covers last ten TY (2-6-2), no covers last four at Coliseum (0-2-2). Birds 4-9 vs. line TY, 4-11-1 last 16 reg season. After 6-2 as dog LY, Eagles 0-2 TY. Birds “under” 10-5 last 15 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Eagles and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MONDAY, DEC. 17

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Saints won all three meetings LY (2-1 vs. line including wild card round) and have covered last four at Charlotte. Brees 10-1 vs. spread last ten TY, Cam no wins or covers last five. “Overs” 7-1 last eight meetings.
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Close Calls - Week 14
December 11, 2018
By Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 14 of the NFL regular season with one of the wilder NFL Sundays in recent memory.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6½) 27, Baltimore Ravens 24 (49): The AFC-leading Chiefs led by seven at halftime with a spread that slipped from -7½ to -6 or -6½ by kickoff. Baltimore tied the game late in the third quarter following a Patrick Mahomes interception. A big punt return put the Ravens in position for the upset and with just over four minutes to go Lamar Jackson found John Brown to give the underdog Ravens a seven-point edge. Mahomes cemented his MVP case with a great drive that included a pair of 4th down conversions, the second of which resulted in the game-tying touchdown in the final minute. That score also put the scoring at 48 on a total that reached as high as 53 before settling at 51 and dropping to 49 by kickoff. The Ravens had some time on the clock but disaster struck as a sack led to a fumble and the Chiefs had the ball in field goal range. Harrison Butker would miss from 43 yards at time expired however. Kansas City had the ball first and survived a fumble inside the red zone, ultimately giving Butker another opportunity and he was good from 35 yards. Baltimore crossed midfield but went backwards with a penalty and a sack that saw Jackson exit the game. Robert Griffin III entered and made a good throw on 4th-and-22 but Willie Snead couldn’t come up with it to extend the game. Baltimore still cashed underdog tickets and there were likely mixed results on the total.

Cleveland Browns (+1) 26, Carolina Panthers 20 (48): The scoring pace in this game was hot early with a 17-17 halftime score as the Panthers and Browns traded scores. Cleveland fumbled on its first play of the second half but Carolina didn’t take advantage of the field position to add points and only later in the frame added a field goal to lead by three as slight road favorite entering the fourth quarter. Early in the fourth Nick Chubb put the Browns in front but the PAT was missed for just a three-point edge. Cleveland added a field goal a few minutes later but up by just six, all results were still in play. Carolina reached 1st-and-goal with about four minutes remaining but Cam Newton’s eventual 4th down throw sailed high. The Panthers would get another shot but Newton threw an interception on 1st down with a minute to go as the Browns and the ‘under’ held on.

Green Bay Packers (-4) 34, Atlanta Falcons 20 (50½): Despite only managing 300 total yards in the game the Packers pulled away with a 34-7 lead late in the third quarter. Atlanta scored early in the fourth to put the total scoring at 48, just below the closing total. The Falcons reached the Green Bay 8-yard-line with about seven minutes remaining but a fumble kept points off the board. In the final minutes Atlanta kept a meaningless drive going with a 4th down conversion and then with 14 seconds to go hit a 19-yard touchdown pass on another 4th down play to bail out those on the ‘over’.

New Orleans Saints (-9½) 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (55½): The Buccaneers led 14-3 at the half as they looked to sweep the season series with the Saints. The game seemed to swing on a blocked punt late in the third quarter as New Orleans got back in the game with a short-field touchdown. Early in the fourth New Orleans scored on 4th-and-goal with a Drew Brees reach to put New Orleans up by four and suddenly the hefty underdog cover was in danger for the home team. Another 3-and-out gave the Saints the ball back in good field position and New Orleans again scored to make the margin 11 points. The Buccaneers again had to punt and the Saints added a field goal to lead by 14 with just over a minute to go. A touchdown would still put the Buccaneers in position to cover however and Tampa Bay reached the New Orleans 26-yard-line in the final seconds before a holding call and an eventual interception in the end zone.

New York Jets (+4½) 27, Buffalo Bills 23 (37): The Bills led 20-13 early in the third quarter after a short field goal after the Jets fumbled on the halftime kickoff. The Bills didn’t add points after another Jets turnover and then early in the fourth New York managed to tie the game. Buffalo missed a field goal on its next possession but after forcing a quick punt managed three points after a 62-yard drive, leading by three with just over two minutes to go on a spread that sat at -3½ before reaching -4 or -4½. Sam Darnold led a great late drive with the Jets rushing into the end zone on 4th-and-goal to take the lead for the first time in the game. Josh Allen would get intercepted to end the game for the Bills.

Miami Dolphins (+9) 34, New England Patriots 33 (50½): The Patriots led 30-28 late in the fourth quarter but couldn’t quite burn off the remaining clock and didn’t find the end zone, ultimately kicking a 22-yard field goal with 16 seconds remaining to lead by five when a touchdown could have put New England by nine on a spread that bounced around between -7 and -9. The Dolphins returned the kickoff to the 31 and had one play left, it turned out to be a play that will be remembered for a long time as a two laterals after a Ryan Tannehill completion left Kenyan Drake with room to maneuver, eventually going the distance for a 69-yard game-winning score.

Los Angeles Chargers (-16½) 26, Cincinnati Bengals 21 (48): The Bengals were never out of position to cover the massive underdog spread in this game but their late bid to tie the game had a huge impact on the total. The ‘under’ felt safe with just 32 points into the fourth quarter and matching field goals didn’t change that trajectory. Cincinnati would complete a touchdown drive just after the two-minute warning and lined up for a two-point conversion that would have tied the game. The attempt was not a success as the Chargers led 23-21 and the total sat just ‘under’. After holding the on-side kick attempt the Chargers added a late field goal to secure the win and put the scoring at 46, just below the closing figure of 48 after an opener at 47.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) 29, Philadelphia Eagles 23 (45): Eagles backers had a right to be fuming early in Sunday’s big afternoon showcase game in the NFC East with a Dallas fumble on the opening kickoff handed back to the Cowboys on a simply unimaginable replay review decision. From there just 15 points were scored through three quarters and the underdog Eagles tied the game at just 9-9 early in the fourth quarter. These rivals scored four touchdowns in the final eight minutes for a 23-23 tie to incredibly hit the ‘over’ when the ‘under’ appeared to be in a very safe position most of the way. Dallas was in position to have a game-winning field goal attempt at the end of regulation but had a fumble and then a sack to cost the team 15 yards. In overtime Dallas again appeared to stall in field goal range but opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 from the 19-yard-line rather than kicking a relatively sure field goal. The Cowboys got the conversion and then on 3rd-and-8 connected for a game-winning and spread-covering touchdown on a lucky bounce as a deflected pass wound up in Amari Cooper’s hands.

Oakland Raiders (+10) 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 21 (51): The heavy underdog Raiders came to play in this old rivalry as the double-digit underdog was in position to cover the entire way. The ‘under’ also seemed safe with a 14-10 score through three quarters which held until the Raiders took the lead 17-14 with a touchdown with just over five minutes remaining in the game. Both teams would score again for a 24-21 Oakland edge in the final seconds. The Steelers picked up a huge gain on a lateral play to set-up a game-tying field goal that would have put those on the ‘over’ miraculously back in play but Chris Boswell’s plant foot slipped and his 40-yard attempt failed as the ‘under’ held on.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) 21, Minnesota Vikings 7 (45½): Both defenses were tough in this Monday NFC showdown with a 3-0 lead for Seattle through three quarters after Minnesota failed going for it on 4th-and-1 across midfield. In good field position Seattle got the biggest play of the game to that point with a 31-yard pass interference call on the first play of the 4th quarter, a play with minimal contact on a debatably catchable pass. That put Seattle at 1st-and-goal and Seattle got past the home favorite spread with a field goal to lead 6-0. Minnesota would go right down the field on its next possession but stalled inside the 2-yard-line and threw incomplete on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard-line. Minnesota’s defense forced a 3-and-out and returned to Seattle territory, opting for a 47-yard field goal try. Bobby Wagner blocked the kick but was flagged for pushing off teammates to leap over a gap, a new rule emphasized this season. Without explanation the flag was picked up as for the second time in the game a clear 15-yard penalty on Wagner was missed after he got away with a facemask in the 1st quarter. With the block Seattle took over downs near midfield when the penalty would have given Minnesota 1st down at the Seattle 14-yard-line in an egregious officiating mistake that created a huge swing in the potential result of the game. A big Russell Wilson scramble put the game away for the Seahawks who would also add a late score on defense before Minnesota avoided the shutout with a garbage-time touchdown for a very misleading final score.

[StarDust Bum]

Top Total Plays - Week 15
December 11, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

NFL Football Odds - Top Totals Plays Of Week 15

The scores in Week 14 came way down, as the offenses in the NFL got cold with the weather. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues throughout December games, and what kind of adjustments oddsmakers will make to the scoring totals.

There is a lot to look out for as Week 15 of the regular season approaches. Teams are getting banged up which is also accounting for some scoring issues. Gamblers must determine if this was a one-week blip or if all the prolific scoring we saw early in the year will disappear completely moving forward.

As always, some games are going to go “over” their projected total and plenty of others “under” in Week 15. The successful bettors will determine which side will hit on certain games, and here is a good guide to get you started in NFL gambling.

Odds Analysis - per BookMaker.eu

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers have two of the better offenses in the AFC. They are facing off in Kansas City, where it could be cold. The Chiefs are dealing with injuries to their key skill players and were not as explosive last time out against the Ravens. Even so, the scoring total of 53.5 seems much too low. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Los Angeles’ Philip Rivers are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and this could be a shootout.

The Cleveland Browns’ offense has been clicking lately under new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens. Rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield has looked good but he has a tough road matchup next time out against the Denver Broncos. The scoring total in this one is 45.5 points but that is too high. Mayfield is not going to have as much success against a talented foe.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on the road to face the Baltimore Ravens. Tampa Bay has a solid passing game but a lot of yards don’t always translate into points. The Ravens have a good defense and are playing at home. Rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson seems likely to get another start. If so, the “under” on 47 points is the right call. If Joe Flacco starts for the Ravens, this is a much tougher call on the scoring total.

The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills have the lowest scoring total of any game this week. The game, which is in Buffalo, has an over/under of only 38 points. That number seems low considering that the Bills were able to find a decent groove offensively last time out against the Jets. The Lions have lost a lot of talent at the skill positions but still have a standout quarterback in Matthew Stafford who should make enough plays with his arm for the “over” to hit in this game.

Free NFL ATS Picks

These other scoring totals are intriguing, but there is one game that stands out above the rest this week. The Green Bay Packers are hitting the road to face off against the Chicago Bears, and the total is listed at 45.5 points. Based on how Chicago looked last time out in a dominant defensive performance against the Rams, the public will likely hit the “under.”

However, Aaron Rodgers is an elite player and he will be able to move the ball in a must-win game for Green Bay. Chicago’s offense is underrated and should also score some points. The “over” is the correct call in this crucial NFC Central showdown.

While the Bears are known for their defense this season and the Packers have struggled on offense, neither will be true in a game which is going to turn into a shootout in NFL odds.

NFL ATS Pick: Take “over” 45.5 points between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers

[StarDust Bum]

Teams to Watch - Week 15
December 11, 2018
By YouWager.eu


NFL: Games to Watch on Week 15

Week 14 in the NFL proved to be another surprising one, with some of the bigger teams falling rather unexpectedly. The Steelers lost to the Raiders, the Rams were bested by the Bears, and the New England Patriots somehow managed to lose a game to Miami after the Dolphins lateraled the ball a bunch of times before scoring a TD on the final kick-off.

It was a strange week, to be sure, but there is even more to look forward to this coming weekend.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the biggest games on the NFL Week 15 schedule with all the odds, props and futures for it sponsored by YouWager.eu.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3½ -115) at Kansas City Chiefs (-3½ -105)

We don’t have to wait very long for the great games to start, as this one is scheduled for Thursday night in primetime. The AFC West is a 2-horse race between these teams, with the winner of this one getting a stranglehold on the division. Perhaps more importantly, though, the winner here would become a very good bet to be a first round bye in the playoffs. Two of the best offenses on the league will be on display, so perhaps expect some fireworks. It will likely be the team that makes the biggest defensive plays that wins this one, and I like the Chiefs to do it.

Green Bay Packers (+5½ -110) at Chicago Bears (-5½ -110)

The Chicago Bears put in one of the best defensive performances of the season in their Week 14 win over the LA Rams, but this is no time for them to rest on their laurels. They can clinch the NFC North with the win here, which would allow them to relax a little in the final two weeks of the season. That’s no easy task, though, as the Packers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a win over Atlanta last weekend. The Packers really need to win out to have any shot at getting in, but I don’t see them getting the win they need this weekend.

The Best NFL Action is at YouWager.eu, Join Now and get a 50% Bonus up to $1000

Dallas Cowboys (+3 -120) at Indianapolis Colts (-3 +100)

The Dallas Cowboys looked dead in the water a month ago, but the arrival of Amari Cooper seems to have given this team new life, as they have now won all 5 games that he has started. The Cowboys are in a playoff spot now and in prime position to win the NFC East, but they need at least one more win to seal the deal. They will head to Indianapolis to face a Colts team that is still knocking on the door of the playoffs after a big win last weekend. This looks to be one of the more entertaining games on the schedule, but it’s tough to see beyond the Cowboys and the run that they are on right now.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Even with the stunning loss to the Miami Dolphins last weekend, the Patriots still appear to be in very good shape in the division, as well as in the playoff race. The same cannot be said for the Steelers, who have now gassed leads in their last 2 games, and all while losing 3 in a row. They blew a great opportunity to go a game and a half up on the Ravens in the division with just 3 weeks left with their loss to the Raiders, and the pressure is now on in a big way. The Steelers always have a tough time with the Patriots, and I see that trend continuing this weekend.

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil


MIXED MESSAGES FROM THE CHIEFS

It was a confusing day if you’re a Tyreek Hill fan or fantasy owner. First, reports surfaced on Monday that Hill told reporters "my foot's bad”, making it seem like he would be doubtful for Thursday. Later, however, reports stated that his heel injury wasn’t as severe as originally thought. Hill missed practice on Monday but coach Andy Reid said he expects Hill to be in uniform for the Chiefs' game against the Chargers.

Spencer Ware also missed practice with shoulder and hamstring issues but is also expected to play in Week 15.

We’re assuming Hill will be in uniform for what is the biggest game of the year so far in the AFC and it looks like he might have a nice matchup ahead of him. The Chargers are generally tough against the pass, ranked ninth in DVOA, but really seem to struggle against the opponent’s top wideout, with a rank of 30th in DVOA to the position (as highlighted by Antonio Brown’s Week 13 performance of 10-154-1).

As for Hill's injury, it didn’t seem to bother him too much on Sunday against Baltimore as he produced most of his 8-139 stat line after briefly leaving the game to get his foot wrapped up. Monitoring his status over the next couple of days will be key but as of Tuesday, we’re leaning towards backing the Over for Hill’s receiving yards total, assuming he’s on the field.


EKELER IN PROTOCOL

Chargers running back Austin Ekeler is looking like a long shot for Thursday night as he has now been placed in the league’s concussion protocol in addition to the neck injury he suffered on Sunday. Melvin Gordon (knee) also remained on the sideline at practice on Monday, though reports said he “could play” against the Chiefs.

For now, both are looking doubtful, meaning the Chargers will roll into their biggest game of the season with rookies Justin Jackson and Detrez Newsome as their healthy backs.

If Ekeler and Gordon both sit, Jackson would handle the bulk of the work in a very nice matchup against a Chiefs defense that is ranked dead last in DVOA against the run. K.C. allowed 198 rushing yards on Sunday to Baltimore and gives up 127.8 yards on 25.2 carries per game.

Jackson came crashing down to earth last week with 1.7 yards per carry after averaging eight yards per attempt on 15 carries in the two prior weeks. It was a bit discouraging that he couldn’t find holes against a Bengals rush defense (28th in rushing DVOA) that is almost as bad as the Chiefs’, but he’ll have a great chance to rebound with a ton of volume and a great spot on TNF. We’ll be looking to take the Over on his rushing yards total if Ekeler and Gordon both sit.
Sharps take early shot at Chargers' odds for NFL Week 15 clash vs. Chiefs


HARBAUGH TALKS QBs

John Harbaugh had an interesting media session on Monday as he made it sound like Joe Flacco (hip) will be healthy enough to play for the Ravens in Week 15 against Tampa Bay, but stopped short at committing to him as the starter. He also suggested that Lamar Jackson will be fine after getting hurt late in overtime against the Chiefs.

"We have a plan," Harbaugh told the media. "We have to talk to the guys about it. Whether we share that publicly, we'll have to decide as the week goes on."

Baltimore’s quarterback situation is messy and it sounds as if the players don’t even know what is happening upon Flacco’s return. Jackson played decently in his absence with a 3-1 record but all four games were cupcake matchups and with just 600 passing yards on 89 attempts, he certainly didn’t do enough to seize the starting job.

It’s possible that we see the Ravens move forward with packages for both quarterbacks, assuming both are healthy. From a betting and fantasy standpoint, this is going to be a situation to avoid (unless either Flacco or Jackson are ruled out) until we get more clarity.


TANNEHILL ‘SORE’

Speaking to the media on Monday, Dolphins coach Ryan Gase said that quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s ankle was “sore” but that he was “walking around.” Tannehill was forced out of Sunday’s game against New England but managed to return. As of Tuesday, it sounds as if Gase expects Tannehill to be on the field when the Dolphins visit the Vikings on Sunday.

Here’s a crazy stat: Tannehill currently ranks sixth in the NFL in passer rating behind only Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Matt Ryan. Did you ever expect to see Tannehill on a list with those names?

Regardless, on Sunday he’s going to be hobbled and facing a defense that just held Wilson to 10-of-20 passing for 72 yards and an interception. The Dolphins are also going to review tape from the Monday nighter and see that the Vikings are vulnerable to the run after the Seahawks piled up 214 rushing yards.

The Vikings are facing a must-win at home and we expect Tannehill to come crashing back to earth on Sunday. We’re taking the Under on Tannehill’s passing yards total for Week 15.


CLEMENT’S SEASON FINISHED?

Philadelphia plucked running back Boston Scott from New Orleans’ practice squad on Monday, suggesting that Corey Clement’s knee injury that he suffered on Sunday could be serious. Scott’s signing shouldn’t have much effect on Week 15 as he still needs to learn the offense, but Clement’s absence should create a few more touches for Josh Adams.

The Eagles ran the ball just 14 times for 34 yards against Dallas on Sunday but that was likely due to game script (falling behind 9-0) and the fact that the Cowboys feature a stout rush defense. For what it’s worth, Adams had 36 yards on the ground on seven carries, while the rest of the backfield accounted for negative yardage on seven carries.

Philly heads to L.A. in Week 15 to play the Rams on Sunday Night Football as a nine-point underdog, which isn’t ideal for a running back, but Philly will need to run to keep Jared Goff and the high-octane Rams’ offense off the field. It also helps that L.A. ranks 25th in rushing DVOA and are allowing 124.2 rushing yards per game (23rd in the NFL). We’re backing the Over for Adams’ rushing yards total on Sunday.

[Udog]

NFL's Best ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Saints 10-3 ATS
2. Bears 9-4 ATS
3. Seahawks 8-3-2 ATS
4. Chiefs 8-4-1 ATS
t5. Pats 8-5 ATS
t5. Cowboys
t5. Dolphins
t5. Browns


NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

32. Falcons 3-10 ATS
t30. Niners 4-9 ATS
t30. Eagles
29. Jaguars 4-7-2 ATS
t25. Raiders 5-8 ATS
t25. Jets
t25. Bills
t25. Panthers


NFL Top OVER Teams (based on Over %)

1. Chiefs 8-4-1
t2. Bears 8-5
t2. Bengals
t2. Jets
t2. Bucs
t6. Falcons 7-6
t6. Panthers
t6. Packers
t6. Chargers
t6. Giants
t6. Steelers
t6. Niners


NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 9-3-1
t2. Cardinals 8-5
t2. Texans 8-5
t2. Vikings 8-5
t2. Pats 8-5
t2. Saints 8-5
t2. Eagles 8-5

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report

Week of December 10th

With the college basketball world on a bit of a hiatus as winter exams have arrived, last week's dissection of two of the sports conferences can be put on hold. The West Coast Conference is still loaded with ATS money makers, as the worst ATS record for anyone in that conference is just one game below the .500 mark.

The SEC continued to struggle covering spreads as well, as they continue to be a top candidate to be a victim of their own success/depth in the betting markets of non-conference play. With so many good teams it will be interesting to see how conference play shakes out in January/February, and it won't be until then that I'll come back and take a snapshot of the entire CBB betting landscape again.

Today, it's back to the football world as the NFL has hit the stretch drive and the playoff picture should start to get clearer each week. Motivational angles should be considered more often in December, but with some division leaders recently struggling, it's time to look at betting scenarios that have been quite streaky one way or another of late.

Who's Hot

Home Underdogs – 10-5 ATS last two weeks, including 9-6 SU

It's been a good two-week run for backing home underdogs – especially on the ML – as they've cashed at a 67% rate. Home underdogs tend to be spots bettors should naturally gravitate towards when the scenario/situation fits, and over the past two weeks with some very prominent teams laying road chalk, it's those favorites that have got burned in all sorts of ways.

There have been the offensive powerhouses like the Rams and Saints losing SU and ATS to home underdogs that pride themselves on great defensive play (Dallas, Chicago). Chicago was actually a team that got caught the week before knocking off L.A in the road chalk role, as the New York Giants beat up on the Bears for most of the game and managed to not fully blow it by getting the win in OT.

This past week we had a couple of “miracle” comebacks in the final minute by the likes of Miami and Oakland to pull off SU and ATS wins as sizable home underdogs against the Patriots and Steelers respectively. Considering New England and Pittsburgh meet in Pittsburgh this weekend, it's pretty safe to say in retrospect that both organizations likely had one eye already on Week 15.

All of that stuff matters in December, and when bad teams are at home, knowing their season is done in a few weeks, and they get to host a playoff-caliber squad, those games become like “playoff” games for the home underdog, and so far they've performed up to the challenge in recent weeks. Whether or not that continues remains to be seen, but it looks like we've got just four candidates to consider in the home 'dog role for Week 15.

The New York Jets (+6.5 vs Houston), San Francisco (+6 vs Seattle), Carolina (+6.5 vs New Orleans), and likely Pittsburgh (+2 range vs New England), are this week's candidates in that role. You can make cases for fading all four of their opponents for various reasons, but don't be surprised to see one of these home underdogs win outright in Week 15. At least one home underdog has won outright in every week this season from Week 2 on, so getting behind the Jets, 49ers, or Panthers (and probably Steelers) should be making everyone's handicapping short list as the week goes on.

Who's Not

NFC Super Bowl representatives from the last three years – 1-14 ATS last five weeks combined

Carolina, Atlanta, and Philadelphia have all been hit hard by injuries at various points of the year, and it's looking like those injuries combined with some poor overall play will have all three of these franchises on their couches watching playoff football.

Atlanta already knows they'll have a long off-season ahead of them, as their last shot at staying relevant was a few weeks ago back in New Orleans when turnovers and sloppiness officially did them in. Having gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, the Falcons have shown little to no heart down the stretch. You've got to wonder if big organizational changes are coming to Atlanta this spring, but with Arizona, Carolina, and Tampa Bay left to play out the string, backing this uninspired Falcons team is not high on the “To-Do list” the rest of the year.

Carolina and Philadelphia still have a shot at getting into the playoffs, although the two of them (along with Minnesota) are basically fighting it out for one spot now. Considering Carolina is on a 0-5 SU and ATS run right now, and Philly is 3-7 ATS in their last 10, Week 15 might be the final curtain call for both organizations in 2018 when you consider who they are up against respectively.

Philadelphia heads to LA to take on the Rams on SNF, with what is basically their season on the line. The Eagles nearly fought all the way back to beat Dallas last week to stay in the NFC East hunt, but that loss all bunk sunk them in that regard, and they are likely to have a tough time picking themselves back up after a game like that. The Eagles are catching nearly double-digits against a Rams team that was somewhat exposed by Chicago, but you've got to have a great defense like the Bears to take advantage of that. The Eagles secondary has been obliterated by injuries all year long, and even if they were healthy, their defense just doesn't compare to Chicago's.

The Panthers at least have the added benefit of being at home this week, but hosting the Saints on MNF is no picnic with their season on the line. Carolina is already officially out of their division chase so it's just a Wildcard berth to fall back on, but they don't have a defense like the one the Cowboys possess when they shut down New Orleans a few weeks ago. The Saints are still out there playing for 1st seed in the NFC, so there isn't likely to be any post-division clinch letdown, especially when it's a prime time game to conclude the week.

Should Philadelphia and Carolina lose SU this week, you can add them to the list with Atlanta of teams I would not look to back the rest of the way. All three of these recent Super Bowl participants had much higher expectations for 2018, and to come up as short as they are puts them in the role of being “lame duck” teams that should be great fades as they all look to preserve their health for 2019 and beyond.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

— Penn 78, Villanova 75— Villanova’s 25-game Big Five win streak ends.

— Colorado 78, New Mexico 75— Buffs were down 17, improve to 8-1.

— New Mexico gets 6-10 Kansas transfer Carlton Bragg eligible Sunday

— Spurs 111, Suns 86— Popovich moves into 4th place on all-time win list.

— Orioles hired Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde as their new manager.

— Texas Rangers hired former P Brandon McCarthy to help out in aspects of pitching development in the major and minor leagues.

Quote of the Day
“Sometimes it makes it worse when it’s right there. If you get blown out it doesn’t seem to hurt as bad as when you have a chance.’’
Ben Roethlisberger

Wednesday’s quiz
The Clippers were in San Diego before they played in LA; what was the team’s name before they moved to San Diego?
(Hint: They had 2 or 3 really good/well-known players)

Tuesday’s quiz
Wayne Fontes was Lions’ coach in 1991, last time Detroit won a playoff game.

Monday’s quiz
Matt Prater (then with the Broncos) holds the record for the longest FG in NFL history (64 yards); he kicked it against the Tennessee Titans.

************************

Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

13) Things you don’t see much; Dallas ran 93 plays Sunday, Philly only 48.

Cannot remember last time an NFL team ran 93 plays in a game. Cowboys had only done it once before EVER, running 94 plays in a 1978 win over Green Bay.

Does being on the field for 93 plays have a hangover effect this week, when the Eagles visit the Rams in Los Angeles?

12) Very few NFL games get butchered the way New England butchered their loss in Miami last week; Brady took a sack at the end of the first half when Patriots were out of timeouts and in the red zone, costing his team three points, a horrible mistake that was a lot like Russell Wilson’s INT at the end of the first half Monday night.

Then Miami scoring on a 69-yard desperation play to get the walk-off win; why is Gronkowski on the field for that play? Play started on the Miami 31; Tannehill ain’t throwing a Hail Mary pass 70+ yards. I’m guessing the Patriots’ flight home and defensive meetings Monday couldn’t have been very pleasant.

11) Minnesota Vikings fired OC John DeFilippo Tuesday, after the Vikings got whacked 21-7 by the Seahawks Monday night. Mike Zimmer has gone thru lot of QB’s/OC’s in his tenure as the Vikings’ coach.

10) Royals signed free agent OF Billy Hamilton, who runs really fast but as my dad often said, “He can’t steal first base.” When your on-base% is under .300, that not good.

9) More baseball dealings:
— Phillies gave Andrew McCutchen $16.7M a year for three years.
— Blue Jays released oft-injured SS Troy Tulowitzki, who is still owed $38M.
— White Sox acquired P Ivan Nova from Pittsburgh.

8) Steph Curry is going to host a PGA Tour event at Lake Merced Golf Club in Daly City, CA, starting in the 2019-20 season. The tournament doesn’t have a sponsor yet; the golf course is going to get $3.6M in upgrades before then.

7) Memphis Grizzlies equipment assistant Brianè Miller was offered $100,000 for the sneakers LeBron James gave her over the weekend, but she says she has no interest in selling them.

6) ESPN released 11 Sunday night telecasts for 2019; what a surprise- five Red Sox games, four Bronx games, three Dodger games, zero Astros games. And they wonder why the sport isn’t as popular as it used to be? Houston is the 4th-biggest city in the country and they are one of the best teams— put their young stars on TV!!!!

This doesn’t even need to be stated, but A’s/Rays aren’t on the list. Both won 90+ games LY.

5) MLB Network is great this week, watching stuff from Winter Meetings every day, but then they put this guy Charlie Montoyo on Tuesday at 6pm, and I had no idea he was Toronto’s new manager. He worked for Kevin Cash in Tampa for four years, so thats a good thing these days, working with another successful manager.

4) So its 4am Monday night/Tuesday morning and I’m winding down getting ready for bed, then I hear trucks outside, and they start jackhammering the road across street from me, digging this big hole. Seven feet deep, 25-30 feet long. It is freakin’ 4am!!!!

So much for sleep……or water. Must’ve been a leak in the pipes.

Water came back on 11 hours later, the road looks like it is a war zone, kind of killed the day, though not having water to take a shower forced me to get some sleep. Feel bad for guys who are outside at 4am in 15-degree weather fixing plumbing.

3) City of Oakland is suing the Raiders, making it evident that this will be the Raiders’ last year playing home games in Oakland- they’re moving to Las Vegas in 2020.

2) Football coaches are nomads: Ole Miss hired former Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre as its new defensive coordinator, which will make their defense a lot better. Ole Miss will have two new coordinators next year; their OC Phil Longo is off to the same job at North Carolina.

Former Bowling Green coach Mike Jinks is the new running backs coach at USC; no offense to the fine folks at Bowling Green, but thats a promotion- RB coach at USC is a better job than HC at Bowling Green- what a storied history of RB’s the Trojans have had.

1) Former Tennessee football coach Butch Jones was hired this week by Maryland as an assistant to new head coach Mike Locksley; both guys were assistants at Alabama this season.

Colin Kaepernick should go be an assistant coach at Alabama; maybe he could get a job in the NFL then. Every other Saban assistant gets a new job fairly quickly.

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



VIKINGS FIRE OC

The Vikings acted quickly after an embarrasing offensive performance on primetime, firing offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and promoting quarterbacks coach Kevin Stefanski to OC. Former Vikings OC Pat Shurmur tried to take Stefanski with him when he accepted the Giants head coaching job over the summer, but Minnesota blocked the interview request. The organization obviously thinks very highly of the man now tasked with making the Kick Cousins $84 million investment look like money well spent.

It remains to be seen what kind of changes Stefanski will implement, but it can reasonably be assumed that he’ll incorporate more running plays as Minnesota ranks 31st in rushing attempts at 21.1 per game. The Vikings currently sit third-last in total rushing yards and are 25th in rushing yards per attempt. Running plays will be on the menu in Week 15 as the Vikings matchup with the Dolphins.

Miami isn’t the best matchup for running backs, ranking 17th in DVOA, but they are giving up 139.5 rushing yards per game, the third-highest total in the league. We expect a renewed focus on the running game will lead to a big game from Dalvin Cook on Sunday and we’ll be backing the Over on his rushing yards total.


BIG BEN EXPECTS TO PLAY

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger expects to suit up for Sunday’s clash with New England after he was knocked out of Sunday’s game with a rib injury. Big Ben did return to the game late in the fourth quarter, with coach Mike Tomlin telling reporters that Roethlisberger was waiting for the painkillers to kick in before getting back on the field.

Roethlisberger and the Steelers host Tom Brady and the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in one of the premier games of Week 15. Big Ben tends to play well at home and he has thrown for 300-plus yards in five of his last six against New England (he threw for 281 in the other).

The Pats rank 19th in passing DVOA but are significantly worse at defending the pass away from Gillette Stadium as they are giving up 293.4 passing yards on the road, as compared to 248 at home. The road struggle was in full effect last week as they allowed 265 passing yards on just 19 attempts to Ryan Tannehill. Take the Over for Roethlisberger’s passing yards total.


CROWELL IN BOOT

Jets running back Isaiah Crowell was seen sporting a walking boot on his injured foot on Tuesday, which obviously isn’t a great signal for his availability when New York hosts Houston on Saturday.

The Jets were actually without their top three running backs at practice on Tuesday as Elijah McGuire and Trenton Cannon also sat out with injuries. The Jets might be forced to make a roster move before the weekend, but it’s a bad situation regardless.

The Jets were likely to throw a lot against the Texans anyway, as Houston ranks third in rushing DVOA but 16th against the pass. Sam Darnold threw just 24 passes last week in his first game back from injury, but will be forced into a lot more on Saturday.

Andrew Luck threw 41 passes against the Texans last week and Baker Mayfield had 43 attempts against them the week before that. With no healthy running backs and going against a very tough rush defense, we expect Darnold to do quite a bit of throwing as well. Take the Over on his number of pass attempts.


BENJAMIN A NON-FACTOR?

Even with Sammy Watkins out and Tyreek Hill banged up, beat writers in Kansas City don’t expect Kelvin Benjamin to play extended snaps on Thursday when the Chiefs host the Chargers. In fact, the team hasn’t even confirmed whether he’ll suit up. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as Benjamin has only been with the team for less than a week.

Last week, under similar circumstances, we expected Chris Conley to play a role but he had just two catches for 13 yards. Instead Demarcus Robinson contributed with five receptions for 42 yards.

Picking whoever gets involved as the Chiefs' WR2 on a week-by-week basis seems like a coin flip, so we’ll turn to the ever-consistent Travis Kelce, who got us a winner with Over 6.5 receptions last week. Kelce has posted five or more receptions in every game this season except Week 1 when he caught just one pass for seven yards against the Chargers.

We’re labeling that performance as an anomaly, however, as the Chargers haven’t been particularly good against tight ends this season, ranking 19th in DVOA against the position and are giving up eight passes and 56.7 yards per game.

Kelce is priced extremely high this week, with a receptions total of 7.5 and a receiving yards total of 85.5, but the best value might be in backing him to get into the end zone — something he has done four times in the past three games. We’re taking the Over 0.5 on his touchdown receptions total (-128).


D-JAX REMAINS DOUBTFUL

Buccaneers receiver DeSean Jackson hasn’t called it a season yet but remains unable to squeeze a football due to a thumb injury. He’s looking very doubtful for Week 15 when Tampa Bay travels to Baltimore, meaning the Bucs will move forward with Chris Godwin on the perimeter behind Mike Evans and Adam Humphries in the slot.

We backed Godwin last week in what was a plus matchup but he was a bust with just one catch for 13 yards. This week, he's in a tough spot against a defense that ranks fourth in DVOA to both WR1 and WR2.

The Bucs passing game as a whole will be challenged on Sunday, but Humphries might be the best bet as the Ravens rank 14th against inside wide receivers and are allowing 6.3 passes for 45.5 yards per game. Humphries posted four receptions in Week 14 but had six and seven in the two games prior. We like his chances of getting back to five or more catches and we’re taking the Over on his receptions total.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Looking at teams who allowed highest %age of 20+-yard plays on 1st down:

— Patriots have allowed 56 plays plays of 20+ yards; 37 on 1st down (66.1%)

— Chargers 32 of 52 plays (61.5%)

— Jets 42 of 71 plays (59.2%)

— Buccaneers 37 of 65 plays (56.9%)

— Steelers 30 of 55 plays (54.5%)

— Eagles 34 of 64 plays (53.1%)

— Lowest %age: Dallas 11 of 40 plays (27.5%)

Quote of the Day
“He’s good at basketball. I get asked that every day. I don’t know how to answer that anymore. Nothing he does surprises me.’’
Steve Kerr, talking about Steph Curry

Thursday’s quiz
Where did Steph Curry play his college basketball?

Wednesday’s quiz
The Clippers were in San Diego before they played in LA; they were the Buffalo Braves before they moved to San Diego, with Bob McAdoo, Jim McMillian, Randy Smith, Ernie DeGregorio.

Tuesday’s quiz
Wayne Fontes was Lions’ coach in 1991, last time Detroit won a playoff game.

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Thursday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) If you were a college football player, which bowl would you NOT want to play in? There are a ton of bowls, 39 if I counted right. We’ll talk about this later on this month, but no way would I want to go somewhere cold, like Boise or the Bronx or Detroit. Bowl games should be warm; at least the game in Detroit is indoors.

Anyway, did you know players get swag bags at bowl games? Here are three of some of the best swag collections EVERY player gets at these games………

12) New Mexico Bowl North Texas vs. Utah State
— Oakley Jupiter Squared sunglasses
— Oakley 5 Speed backpack
— Bluetooth speaker
— water bottle
— beanie
— Montgomery pen
— Pacific Headwear trucker’s cap

11) Valero Alamo Bowl Iowa State vs. Washington State
— $425 Amazon gift card— Every kid gets $425, a good deal for the scrubs
— Fossil watch
— mini helmet
— team panoramic photo

10) AutoZone Liberty Bowl Missouri vs. Oklahoma State ¦
— Shopping trip to Memphis’ Bass Pro Shops
— Bose SoundLink micro Bluetooth speaker;
— Bulova watch
— Nike athletic shoes
— sport sandals
— backpack and sunglasses
— football

9) Minnesota QB coach Kevin Stefanski will take over as the new offensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings, after John DeFilippo was fired Tuesday. Here’s an idea; let your QB call his own damn plays— he makes $28M a year, I’m guessing he could do it.

8) We mentioned the other day how Mike MacIntyre got fired as the head coach at Colorado and is now the DC at Ole Miss. Turns out that MacIntyre will now be making over $1M more per year than he was at Colorado, and he’s not even the head coach.

7) I have the NBA Full Court package on DirecTV; I enjoy watching good basketball, but I read the stuff about the Chicago Bulls revolting against their new coach and not wanting to practice the day after a 56-point loss and it makes me want to cancel my subscription.

Not sure what the solution is, but the league has a problem on its hands.

6) The sport that loses the most in transition from in person to on TV is hockey. If you’ve never gone to a college or pro hockey game, you should— it is great fun. Watch the officials; they’re such great skaters.

5) I think Bob Uecker should’ve gotten an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for his role as Indians’ radio announcer Harry Doyle in the fine baseball movie Major League.

4) As recently as 1999, Vice-President Mike Pence was a radio talkshow host in Indiana. The guy’s head has to be spinning; his every move now is fodder for late-night comedians.

You have any idea how hard it is to just sit there with no emotion or no motion like he did in the Oval Office Tuesday? Someone on the Interweb compared him to the dead guy in Weekend at Bernie’s, and it didn’t seem like that big a stretch to agree with him.

3) Tampa Bay Rays’ plans for a new ballpark in Ybor City officially died this week when owner Stu Sternberg had a press conference at the Winter Meetings. Sounds like the Rays might be locked into the Trop now, until 2027- they could easily wind up in Montreal eventually.

2) The Heisman Trophy that Tim Brown won in 1987 sold for $435,763 at a public auction recently. Lot of money for a trophy.

1) Pretty cool that the Blue Jays will be paying Troy Tulowitzki $18.4M a year for the next two years, while he probably plays 2B for the A’s, who will be paying him the big league minimum. Now if he can only stay healthy…….

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Chargers at Chiefs
Tony Mejia

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (-3.5, 53.5), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

The Chiefs have been ahead of the Chargers since winning their Week 1 showdown, but must take them down again to open Week 15 in order to avoid being tied atop the AFC West.

With just three regular-season games remaining, this Thursday night clash represents the best matchup we’ll see all week. That’s truly saying something since there’s also action on Saturday in addition to a fully Sunday and a quality Monday night game between the Panthers and Saints.

Nothing will top L.A. at Kansas City in terms of importance, so hopefully the on-field product will rise up and match the magnitude of this game’s implications.

The difference between being able to coast through its final weeks of the season and ensure itself homefield advantage as long as Kansas City is alive into the conference championship game rides on being able to extend dominant streaks over the Chargers and at Arrowhead this season. The Chiefs have won nine straight against L.A. and are a perfect 6-0 on their home turf, winning four of the games by double-digits.

Baltimore was able to push the Chiefs for four quarters on Sunday, leading into the final minute of action and requiring Patrick Mahomes to convert on a pair of fourth downs. With 1:29 left, Kansas City’s quarterback rolled to his right and bought himself just enough time to throw across his body and connect with Tyreek Hill for 48 yards on a 4th-and-9 conversion that may go down as one of the most impactful plays this NFL season if the Chiefs are able to hold serve on Thursday night. Kansas City was able to tie the Ravens and ended up with a 27-24 overtime win.

They enter this showdown with L.A. with their third-string running back set to get a heavy workload after registering the game-tying score on a five-yard pass from Mahomes with 53 seconds left. Kareem Hunt was cut following video of his confrontation with a woman being released by TMZ on Nov. 30 and his backup, Spencer Ware, is doubtful due to a shoulder injury. That leaves Damien Williams as tonight’s likely starter with rookie Darrel Williams and veteran Charcandrick West also available for carries.

The Chargers also have a complicated situation at running back entering this one since Melvin Gordon is doing his best to return early from a knee injury that has kept him out of the lineup. My expectation is that he won’t look like his usual self if he does make it back out on to the field, but the magnitude of this game is so great that it’s understandable he wants to make every effort to get back out there since competent backup Austin Ekeler has already been ruled out after suffering a stinger. Rookies Justin Jackson and Detrez Newsome would be called upon if Gordon can’t go. Read up on this matchup’s other injury-related concerns below.

Given all the attrition at running back, everyone should expect that the arms of Mahomes and veteran Philip Rivers will ultimately decide matters, but there’s a possibility that we’ll see rain in the second half of this one. It’s also expected to be a windy night with gusts rising into the high teens, which makes Mahomes’ stronger arm a weapon. Snow that was originally expected to be part of the festivities is now unlikely to materialize, but temperatures should be in the high-30s.

Mahomes beat the Chargers in the season opener by throwing four touchdown passes, two of which went to Tyreek Hill, who also opened the scoring with a 91-yard punt return less than two minutes in. Rivers threw for three scores in a game where the Chargers came up well short despite 541 yards of offense, turning it over twice. In many ways, from losing the battle of time of possession by nearly 10 full minutes to getting lit up in yardage despite winning handily, the Chiefs showed us very early how they were going to do things this season. It would therefore not be surprising to see more chunk plays and home run balls from Kansas City in this rematch.

Only Week 5’s contest against the Jaguars saw the Chiefs favored by fewer points at home than oddsmakers have saddled them with for this one, which is in part a nod to L.A.’s excellence in opposing stadiums. Because they’re awaiting Los Angeles Stadium at Hollywood Park that they’ll be sharing with the Rams to open the 2020 season to finish being built, the Chargers have been playing “home” games in Carson’s soccer stadium, the StubHub Center. The L.A. Galaxy consider that a great place to play. The Chargers, understandably, do not.

The joke can be made that the Chargers will be playing their 14th road game of the season here since support for them is so scarce in Carson that their own fans are often drowned out by those from the visiting team. Players have commented that not having a true homefield edge has toughened up and contributed to their success in true road games since they’ve only lost once, falling to the Rams 35-23 back on Sept. 23.

Indeed, the Bolts are perfect outside of L.A. See, it’s funny.

The Chargers’ most recent road conquest came in a 33-30 upset of the Steelers to open December, moving them to 3-1 SU and ATS as a road underdog. They struggled some in a 26-21 win over Cincinnati as a 16-point favorite but were clearly playing not to lose as opposed to putting their foot on the gas. That shouldn’t factor in here given that there’s a division on the line.

Ironically, winning would put the Chargers in line for homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, which would at least mean they could sleep in their own beds and come out of the same locker room for a few rounds of the playoffs, so defeating the Chiefs would have value despite the team’s lack of a true edge at home. To win, they’ll need Rivers to play his best in a big game, which has certainly been an issue in the past. He’ll be facing a Kansas City defense that ranks last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (281.8) and 27th in points allowed (27.0), so it’s important that he takes advantage as long as Mother Nature allows him to. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams will try and wreak havoc against a secondary that gets back a familiar face at the perfect time.

Read on below for line movement from Week 14 to Thursday’s numbers, total talk, injury analysis, recent series history and next week’s numbers.

Los Angeles Chargers
Season win total: 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win AFC West: 4/1 to 6/1
Odds to win AFC: 4/1 to 7/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 9/1 to 8/1

Kansas City Chiefs
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +115, Under -135)
Odds to win AFC West: 1/7 to 1/9
Odds to win AFC: 2/1 to 7/5
Odds to win Super Bowl: 9/2 to 9/2

LINE MOVEMENT

Both teams have already surpassed their projected win totals and opened the season with longer Super Bowl odds at Westgate LV Superbook than they have to date. Kansas City was 15-to-1 to win the AFC and 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, so anyone holding on to one of those tickets is going to be looking great if the Chiefs are able to secure homefield advantage. The Chargers opened the season 6-to-1 to win the AFC and 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.

When the season began, L.A. was a 6-to-5 favorite to win the division, while the Chiefs were projected second at 11-to-4. The Broncos and Raiders brought up the rear in terms of expectations at 4/1. If you like L.A. outright tonight, there's certainly value in getting in on this week's divisional odds given the remaining schedule for both teams. They'll each cash playoff props for backers with Kansas City paying out +140 and the Chargers a far less lucrative -160.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Chiefs were a 4-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced and opened at the 3.5-point spread that is most widely available as of Thursday morning. Westgate had a spread set at -3 with juice of -120 earlier this week but has again parked its number at 3.5.

Kansas City is in the -190 range on the money line. If you like the road 'dog outright, a payout on the Chargers win will get you +160 to +170 depending on where you wager.

INJURY CONCERNS

Hill is arguably the most important Chiefs player outside of Mahomes and has continued making plays despite a heel injury. He’s averaging 17 yards per reception and makes the offense go thanks to his explosive speed commanding so much attention. With Sammy Watkins out with a foot injury and the team digging deep into the depth chart at running back, it’s vital that Hill stays out there for most snaps, even if he’s just playing decoy.

Eric Berry returns for his 2018 debut after missing 29 straight games following a ruptured Achilles suffered in the ’17 season opener. His importance as an emotional leader can’t be overstated, but it remains to be seen how he’ll look out on the field given how much rust he’s got to knock off. Kansas City’s other major injury concern comes up front, where they’ve already had to deviate some in replacing Laurent Duvernay-Tardif when he tore his fibula in October. Left guard Cam Erving is doubtful to play after suffering a knee injury against Baltimore. Jeff Allen should start and Kansas City has to cross its fingers that center Mitch Morse, who returned from a concussion, stays healthy given its lack of depth.

The Chargers’ top concern surrounds Gordon, but DT Brandon Mebane, an elite run stuffer, is also unlikely to participate since he’s dealing with a family emergency after his new daughter was born with a heart defect. Corner Trevor Williams and backup tight end Sean Culkin have been ruled out.

TOTAL TALK

The total opened 56 ½ for this matchup and the number has dropped to 53 ½ as of Thursday morning. Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this AFC West matchup:

This isn’t an easy total to handicap since the game has serious playoff implications and if you’re buying that narrative, you could argue that both teams will be a little bit tighter especially on a short week.

When the pair met in Week 1, Kansas City stopped the Chargers 38-28 from Los Angeles and the ‘over’ (48 ½) connected early in the fourth quarter. What stood out in this game is that the Bolts outgained the Chiefs (541-362) but they lost the turnover battle (2-0) and settled for two early field goals.

Kansas City (8-5) and Los Angeles (7-6) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and they enter this matchup on a roll. The Chiefs (39.3 PPG) and Chargers (34.7 PPG) have put up some crooked numbers in their last three games and that’s resulted in 3-0 and 2-1 ‘over’ records respectively.

The Chiefs (32.7 PPG) haven’t been as explosive at home but their defensive numbers (18.7 PPG) at Arrowhead Stadium compared to allowing 34.1 PPG on the road.

This will be the fifth primetime game of the season for the Chiefs and they’ve seen their total results (2-2) split so far but three of those contests were on the road. Los Angeles just played on Sunday Night a couple weeks ago as it rallied from an impressive 33-30 win over the Steelers.

Despite allowing 30 to Pittsburgh in that contest, the Chargers have allowed 16.7 PPG in their last nine games and that’s resulted in a 6-3 ‘under’ mark.

This series has been dominated by the Chiefs, winners in the last nine encounters and even though the Week 1 matchup went ‘over’ the number, the ‘under’ has cashed in six of the previous eight between the pair. Make a note that Chargers QB Philip Rivers hasn’t had much success in his last four trips (0-4) to Arrowhead and the Bolts only scored 7, 3, 27 and 13 points in those games, all losses.

Road teams (2-12 SU) have struggled in the NFL midweek matchup this season and a lot of the results were blowouts. Only three of the games were decided by four points or less and the ‘under’ went 2-1 in those games. I believe this game will be played within that margin and I would lean to the ‘under’ (53 ½) here.

RECENT MEETINGS (Kansas City 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS last nine; UNDER 6-3)

9/9/18 Kansas City 38-28 at Los Angeles (KC +3.5, 48)
12/16/17 Kansas City 30-13 vs. Los Angeles (KC -1, 47)
9/24/17 Kansas City 24-10 at Los Angeles (KC -3, 47.5)
1/1/17 Kansas City 37-27 at San Diego (KC -5.5, 45)
9/11/16 Kansas City 33-27 OT vs. San Diego (SD +6.5, 45.5)
12/13/15 Kansas City 10-3 vs. San Diego (KC -10.5, 44)
11/22/15 Kansas City 33-3 at San Diego (KC -3, 45)
12/28/14 Kansas City 19-7 vs. San Diego (KC -2.5, 42.5)
10/19/14 Kansas City 23-20 at San Diego (KC +3, 46)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 16 currently has the Chargers listed as a 5-point favorite against the Ravens, who will likely come into Carson with Lamar Jackson as their starting QB unless he struggles against Tampa Bay this week. The Chiefs will be back home in prime time as they visit playoff hopeful Seattle, which has been made an early 1-point home favorite.