Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/15/2018 3-0-1 100.00% +15.00
12/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/10/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/09/2018 11-13-0 45.83% -16.50
12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............31-27-0.....53.44%.....+6.50

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Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

12/15/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................2 - 0................+10.00.........+15.00
12/13/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-0.50
12/10/2018............0 - 1.................-5.50.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-11.00
12/09/2018............3 - 3.................-1.50.......................5 - 6.................-3.00.............-4.50
12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals.....................10 - 8...............+6.00....................9 - 11...............-10.50..............-4.50

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

Top 6 picks for Week 15 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest:

1) Indianapolis Colts -3 (999)

2) Tennessee Titans +2.5 (911)

3) Seattle Seahawks -4.5 (877)

4) New England Patriots -2.5 (865)

5) Green Bay Packers +6 (743)

6) Cleveland Browns +3 (701)- W

Season record: 44-38-3

Las Vegas Fact of the Day
“Alcohol can be detrimental to anyone hoping to beat the house.”
C. Trent Rosencrans, explaining why casinos sometimes give out free drinks

Sunday’s quiz
Where is Baylor University located?

Saturday’s quiz
Los Angeles Rams’ owner Stan Kroenke also owns the Denver Nuggets in the NBA and the Colorado Avalanche in the NHL.

Friday’s quiz
Philip Rivers played his college football at NC State.

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Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

Noon-2pm:
— Kansas 74, Villanova 71— Villanova’s bench (3 guys) scored zero points, was 0-4 from floor in 29 combined minutes. Wildcats were 8-28 on the arc, still hung tough but fell short.
— Tennessee 102, Memphis 92— Vols were 39-46 on foul line, Memphis 16-22.
— SMU 81, Georgetown 73— Patrick Ewing in his 2nd year as the Hoyas’ coach; they lost seven of last nine games LY, finished 15-15. Georgetown is 7-3 now, vs schedule #255- this loss ain’t going to look good on Selection Sunday. Coach Ewing needs a big guy like Ewing the player.
— Tulane 41, Louisiana 24- First bowl of the season is the Cure Bowl in Orlando. Shouldn’t these teams be playing in Shreveport or New Orleans? Green Wave banks its first bowl win since 2002; good win for the AAC.

2pm-4pm:
— Notre Dame 88, Purdue 80— Boilermakers lost for fifth time in last seven games.
— Seton Hall 72, Rutgers 66— Underrated rivalry from the Garden State. Rutgers lost its 4th game in a row; they were outscored 21-10 on foul line.
— Utah State 52, North Texas 13— Utah State plays New Mexico every year, every other year in this stadium; Aggies lost their coach to Texas Tech, sometimes teams like that don’t react well in this situation, but Utah State led 38-7 at halftime in a commanding performance, showing that they really did deserve to be in a better bowl.

4pm-6pm:
— Indiana 71, Butler 68— Hoosiers were holding ball for last shot and kind of screwed things up, so kid jacks a 35-footer at the buzzer and drains it. Not the play anyone drew up, but it was a game-winner. Exciting ballgame.
— Kentucky 88, Utah 61— Pac-12 is really struggling so far this season.
— Belmont 74, UCLA 72— UCLA went 9-24 on foul line in second half.
— Texans 29, Jets 22— Houston scored 10 points in last 2:15 of game

6pm-8pm:
— Arizona State 76, Georgia 74— Sun Devils were down 47-33 at halftime.
— North Carolina 103. Gonzaga 90— Probably Zags’ last loss until March.
— Fresno State 31, Arizona State 20— Herm Edwards finishes his first year at ASU 7-6. I went to Las Vegas Bowl few years ago and damn near froze my butt off; had to move around stadium and stay in sun. Didn’t dress warm enough.
— Georgia Southern 23, Eastern Michigan 21— Georgia Southern ran ball for 331 yards.

8pm-10pm:
— If you like college basketball, I recommend you get ESPN+; its only $5 a month, and you get ton of games in mid-major and low-major leagues, so that is fun. I have it and will cancel it as soon as basketball season is over, then get it again next winter.
— Mississippi State 70, Cincinnati 59— 9-1 Bulldogs made 12-23 on arc; Cincy was 3-14.
— Oklahoma 81, USC 70— Trojans shot 34.8% from floor, turned ball over 18 times.
— Browns 17, Broncos 16— Cleveland has won four of its last five games. If you want to be an NFL head coach, I’m guessing John Elway will be accepting applications soon.

10pm-midnight:
— Appalachian State 45, Middle Tennessee State 13— How would you like to be the coach in charge of bed checks at the New Orleans Bowl? Good luck there.
— UNLV 92, BYU 90 OT— Rebels blew a 17-point halftime lead, needed a 3-pointer at buzzer in OT to pull out this win at T-Mobile Arena.
— Thunder 110, Clippers 104— Clippers lost five of their last six games.
— Carson Wentz (back) is definitely out for the Eagles’ game in LA Sunday night.

Elsewhere……
6) Upsets of the Day:
— Oral Roberts (+11) 59, Richmond 52
— Old Dominion (+10.5) 68, Syracuse 62
— Belmont (+7.5) 74, UCLA 72
— Charleston (+7) 83, VCU 79
— Mississippi State (+5) 70, Cincinnati 59
— Notre Dame (+4.5) 88, Purdue 80
— SMU (+4.5) 81, Georgetown 73

5) Boston Red Sox went $40M over the tax threshold, so they owe $11,951,091 in luxury tax for going so far over the limit. Only other team that owes money is the Washington Nationals, who didn’t make the playoffs last year, but still owe $2,386,097, Whoops.

If you have to pay a luxury tax and still miss the playoffs, either the GM or manager (or both) should be fired, right? Somebody screwed up.

Boston’s top draft pick in June’s amateur draft also got dropped ten spots as a penalty.

4) This was the first time in 16 years the Bronx Bombers finished under the tax threshold; seeing the Red Sox lift the World Series trophy this past October will probably spur Bronx to spend ridiculous amounts of money this coming season.

3) Providence freshman guard AJ Reeves, the Friars’ 2nd-leading scorer, will miss four to six weeks because of a foot injury.

2) Former ESPN guy Charlie Steiner signed a 3-year extension to continue as the Dodgers’ radio voice. Do yourself a favor, go to YouTube and look up “Charlie Steiner outtakes” when he gets laughing and can’t stop several times while doing SportsCenter. Good stuff.

1) The line in my neighborhood deli was out the door at noontime Saturday, so good for them, its a terrific place (Pellegrino’s on Central Ave) but I’m not a fan of waiting on line, so had to go elsewhere for lunch. Too bad, they have terrific subs.

[Udog]

NFL WEATHER ALERT

Lions at Bills
A cold drizzle is expected throughout today's game. Temps expected slightly above freezing (34 degrees) with very little wind (2-3 MPH).
Pointspread: Bills -2.5
Total: 40


Bucs at Ravens
Light rain expected throughout the game with air temps around 40 degrees (wind chill in the low 30's). An 11-12 MPH wind is in the forecast blowing end zone-to-end zone.
Pointspread: Ravens -8.5
Total: 46


Titans at Giants
Light rain expected throughout the game with air temps around 39-40 degrees (wind chill in the low 30's). An 12-13 MPH wind is in the forecast blowing end zone-to-end zone.
Pointspread: Titans -1
Total: 43

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 16
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at CHI 01:00 PM
CHI -5.0
O 46.5

ARI at ATL 01:00 PM
ARI +8.5
O 43.5

MIA at MIN 01:00 PM
MIA +7.5
O 45.0

WAS at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC -7.5
U 36.5

OAK at CIN 01:00 PM
OAK +3.0
O 46.0

TB at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -8.5
U 45.5

DET at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -2.5
U 39.5

TEN at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG +1.0
U 43.0

DAL at IND 01:00 PM
IND -3.0
U 46.5

SEA at SF 04:05 PM
SF +3.5
U 44.5

NE at PIT 04:25 PM
NE -2.5
U 54.0

PHI at LAR 08:20 PM
LAR -13.0
U 52.0

[Udog]

Bettors backing Patriots' odds for NFL Week 15 battle vs. Steelers
Patrick Everson

Antonio Brown and the Steelers are on an ill-timed three-game SU and ATS skid. As such, Pittsburgh is a home underdog to New England in Week 15, and Patriots play has pushed this line up.

NFL Week 15 Sunday is a bit abbreviated with 12 games, since there were two Saturday matchups this week. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for four of those dozen contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5; Move: +2

New England absorbed one of the most unlikely losses of the season in Week 14. Leading 33-28 in the final seconds, the Patriots (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) gave up a 69-yard touchdown pass that included two laterals, losing to Miami 34-33 as 9.5-point favorites.

Pittsburgh was also dealt an upset loss as a hefty Week 14 road favorite. The Steelers (7-5-1 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) let Oakland hang around throughout, allowing a last-minute touchdown in tumbling 24-21 laying 10.5 points for their third consecutive SU and ATS setback.

“A lot of support for the Patriots this week has pushed this number up from Patriots -1 to -2.5 (-120),” Murray said of this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, which saw the line dip to 2 Saturday night. “The tickets are more than 3/1 on the Patriots, and the Steelers are setting up to be our biggest need on Sunday. We also will be rooting for the Under, as the liability is building up on the Over. That’s not a big surprise for such a high-profile game.”

The SuperBook opened the total at 52 and reached 54 by Saturday morning.


Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -3; Move: None

Dallas put its season back together by winning and cashing five in a row. In Week 14, the Cowboys (8-5 SU and ATS) had to work overtime against Philadelphia, but came away with a 29-23 victory as 3.5-point home faves.

Indianapolis is in the midst of a solid second half of the season, as well, going 6-1 SU in its last seven games. The Colts (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) beat Houston 24-21 as 4-point road underdogs in Week 14.

The SuperBook stuck at Indy -3 all week, only making adjustments to the juice for this 1 p.m. ET start.

“The majority of the tickets have come in on the Cowboys, but sharp action has moved the number from Colts -3 (even) to Colts -3 (-120),” Murray said. “This is a tough spot for the Cowboys. They basically locked up the NFC East with their win over the Eagles, and the Colts have been playing very well lately, with the exception of the game in Jacksonville two weeks ago.

“The Colts need this game to stay in the thick of the competitive AFC South race.”


Tennessee Titans at New York Giants – Open: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -1; Move: Pick; Move: +1

Tennessee wouldn’t be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but could still possibly land a postseason berth. The Titans (7-6 SU and ATS) followed a two-game skid with two victories, including last week’s 30-9 rout of Jacksonville giving 5.5 points in the Thursday nighter.

New York is technically not eliminated from playoff contention yet, but would need an unlikely share of help to get there. The Giants (5-8 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five outings, blowing out Washington 40-16 as 3-point road favorites in Week 14.

“There’s been a lot of sharp action on the Titans, moving this line from Titans +2.5 to Titans -1,” Murray said of another 1 p.m. ET meeting. “I’ve said this a few times the last few weeks: If you’re a Giants fan, you should be worried about them winning too many games and talking themselves into another season of Eli. The Giants are better off losing. The Titans are still in the AFC playoff mix.”


Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -8.5; Move: -9; Move: -10; Move: -9.5; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -11.5; Move: -12; Move: -12.5; Move: -13

Los Angeles had the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed in its hands heading into the Week 14 Sunday nighter, but the offense froze up in frigid Chicago. The Rams (11-2 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) netted just two first-half field goals in a 15-6 setback as 3-point faves.

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is on the brink of elimination from postseason consideration. In Week 14, the Eagles (6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS) got a late touchdown to force overtime at Dallas, but never saw the ball in the extra frame and lost 29-23 as 3.5-point pups.

The Eagles will be without quarterback Carson Wentz, who has a back injury, which helped impact the big movement in this contest.

“We have been staying ahead of the market in this game and have actually taken mostly money on the Eagles, despite the line moving up to -13,” Murray said of the Sunday nighter, an 8:20 p.m. ET kick. “There will be a lot of moneyline parlay and teaser bets closing with the Rams.”

[StarDust Bum]

Bills missing running backs McCoy and Ivory
December 16, 2018
By The Associated Press

Bills starting running back LeSean McCoy and his backup, Chris Ivory, are both inactive for Buffalo's home game against the Detroit Lions.

McCoy is out after hurting his left hamstring and Ivory hurt his left shoulder in a 27-23 loss to the New York Jets last weekend. The injuries leave Buffalo with two healthy running backs in rookies Marcus Murphy and Keith Ford, who was promoted from the practice squad this week.

Bills kicker Stephen Hauschka is active despite nursing a hip injury.

For the Lions, quarterback Matthew Stafford will make his 126th consecutive start despite being listed as questionable due to a back injury. Running back Kerryon Johnson will miss his fourth consecutive game with a knee injury.

Jaguars running back Carlos Hyde is a healthy scratch against Washington, a clear sign his days in Jacksonville are done. The Jags traded a fifth-round pick to Cleveland for Hyde in October. He is due to make $4.75 million in 2019, a salary Jacksonville seems unwilling to pay for a backup.

Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton is active despite missing all three days of practice this week with an injured ankle.

In other Week 15 lineup news around the league:

-Falcons receiver Julio Jones is active after missing practice one day this week with flu-like symptoms. Atlanta is still without running back Devonta Freeman and has the NFL's worst rushing attack. Tight end Austin Hooper is active despite a sore knee he hurt last week at Green Bay.

-Arizona running back David Johnson is playing despite a sore quadriceps, so Chase Edmonds should get plenty of chances. The Cardinals have placed 16 players on injured reserve this season. Arizona has the league's worst scoring offense and has placed six offensive linemen on IR.

-The Green Bay Packers will be without right tackle Bryan Bulaga and defensive lineman Kenny Clark for their game against the Chicago Bears. Bulaga is out with a knee injury. Jason Spriggs is expected to replace Bulaga at right tackle for the second straight week. Clark is out with an elbow injury.

-Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, whose seven interceptions are tied for the league lead, missed his second straight game because of a knee injury. Minkah Fitzpatrick moved into the starting lineup in his place.

-Giants rookie QB Kyle Lauletta is back to being No. 3 after ugly debut in fourth quarter last week. Alex Tanney the backup to Eli Manning this week.

-Indy's starting center Ryan Kelly returns to the lineup after missing the previous three games with a sprained MCL in his left knee. Right guard Mark Glowinski was ruled out Friday with an injured ankle and Joe Haeg replaces him in the lineup.

-Cowboys guard Zack Martin will miss the first game of his five-year career, and his first chance to play in front of his hometown fans, because of a sprained MCL in his left knee. He will be replaced by Connor Williams and Xavier Su'a Filo replaces Williams at left guard.

-With Ravens QB Joe Flacco off the inactive list for the first time since Nov. 18, Robert Griffin III will be inactive for Baltimore.

-The Buccaneers will be without WR DeSean Jackson (thumb), who ranks third on the team with 40 catches and has scored 5 TDs.

-Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict is inactive for the second straight game with a concussion.

-The Raiders are missing left tackle Kelechi Osemele, sidelined for the second straight game with a toe injury. Right tackle Gabe Jackson is playing despite an elbow injury.

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Here's the full list of inactives for the eary-afternoon games:

TENNESSEE-NEW YORK GIANTS

Titans: OLB Brian Orakpo, RB David Fluellen, TE Cole Wick, G Aaron Stinnie, OL Austin Pasztor, DE Matt Dickerson, RB Jeremy McNichols.

Giants: QB Kyle Lauletta, WR Odell Beckham Jr., DB Tony Lippett, S Kamrin Moore, C Evan Brown, TE Garrett Dickerson and DT John Jenkins.

GREEN BAY-CHICAGO

Packers: QB Tim Boyle, CB Natrell Jamerson, G Nico Siragusa, T Bryan Bulaga, G/T Adam Pankey, LB Kendall Donnerson, DL Kenny Clark.

Bears: QB Tyler Bray, WR Kevin White, FB Michael Burton, LB Kylie Fitts, OL Rashaad Coward, WR Javon Wims, DT Nick Williams.

DETROIT-BUFFALO

Lions: RB Kerryon Johnson (knee), WR Bruce Ellington (hamstring), DE Da'Shawn Hand (knee), OT Rick Wagner (concussion), S Charles Washington (hamstring), CB Marcus Cooper (back), FB Nick Bellore (ankle).

Bills: RBs LeSean McCoy (left hamstring) and Chris Ivory (left shoulder), S Dean Marlow, CB Ryan Lewis (concussion), OL Vladimir Ducasse, TE Logan Thomas (hamstring), QB Derek Anderson.

TAMPA BAY-BALTIMORE

Buccaneers: S Justin Evans (toe), WR DeSean Jackson (thumb), QB Ryan Griffin, CB David Rivers, LB Adarius Taylor, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, TE Tanner Hudson.

Ravens: OL Alex Lewis (shoulder), QB Robert Griffin III, WR Jordan Lasley, LB Tim Williams, RB Ty Montgomery, FB/DL Patrick Ricard, OL Zach Sieler.

ARIZONA-ATLANTA

Cardinals: WR Chad Williams, CB Quinten Rollins, CB Dontae Johnson, LB Jonathan Anderson, DE Vontarrius Dora, LT Zack Golditch, TE Darrell Daniels.

Falcons: K Giorgio Tavecchio, FB Ricky Ortiz, CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, S Ryan Neal, RT Matt Gono, DT Justin Zimmer, DT Terrell McClain.

OAKLAND-CINCINNATI

Raiders: DE Kony Ealy, G Gabe Jackson, WR Keon Hatcher, CB Montrel Meander, OT Justin Murray, OL Kelechi Osemele, LB Kyle Wilber.

Bengals: CB KeiVarae Russell, CB Davontae Harris, LB Vontaze Burfict, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, WR Josh Malone, TE Jordan Franks, DE Kasim Edebali.

DALLAS-INDIANAPOLIS

Cowboys: QB Mike White, WR Tavon Austin, LB Chris Covington, G Zack Martin, TE Geoff Swaim, DT David Irving, DE Taco Charlton.

Colts: C Josh Andrews, WR Daurice Fountain, G Mark Glowinski, S Mike Mitchell, LB Skai Moore, DT Hassan Ridgeway, RB Jonathan Williams.

MIAMI-MINNESOTA

Dolphins: QB David Fales, CB Xavien Howard, C/G Hroniss Grasu, G Isaac Asiata, T Zach Sterup, DE Jonathan Woodard, WR Isaiah Ford.

Vikings: QB Kyle Sloter, WR Chad Beebe, RB Mike Boone, LB Devante Downs, C Brett Jones, DE Tashawn Bower.

WASHINGTON-JACKSONVILLE

Redskins: QB Colt McCoy, RB Samaje Perine, CB Greg Stroman, LB Ryan Anderson, OL Kyle Fuller, OL Tony Bergstrom, TE Jordan Reed.

Jaguars: WR DJ Chark, RT Jermey Parnell, PK Josh Lambo, LB Martrell Spaight, RB Carlos Hyde, CB Tyler Patmon, DT Eli Ankou.

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[Udog]

MNF - Saints at Panthers
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Saints (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) rebounded from a loss in Week 13 at Dallas that snapped a 10-game winning streak to knock off the Buccaneers, 28-14 to cash as 10-point road favorites. Not only did New Orleans avenge a season-opening loss to Tampa Bay in which it allowed 48 points, but the Saints shut out the Buccaneers in the second half, 25-0 to overcome a 14-3 halftime deficit.

Drew Brees spearheaded the rally behind a touchdown pass and a touchdown run, while the Saints’ defense limited the Bucs to under 300 yards after allowing 529 yards in the first matchup in Week 1. The Saints gave up 17 points or less for the fifth consecutive week, while Brees busted the 200-yard passing mark (barely with 201) for the first time in three games. With the victory, the Saints improved to 6-1 SU/ATS away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Panthers (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) have gone through a free-fall at the absolute worst time. Carolina suffered its fifth consecutive loss in last Sunday’s 26-20 setback at Cleveland as short favorites. The schedule-makers weren’t kind to Carolina, who was playing its fourth road game in five weeks, but the Panthers couldn’t hold onto a pair of touchdown leads in the first half as well as a three-point advantage heading into the fourth quarter.

Cam Newton failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 1 against Dallas, as the Panthers’ quarterback totaled 265 yards through the air and an interception. The Panthers trailed by six in the final minutes and reached the three-yard line, but Carolina came up short on three plays to take the lead, including a pair of incomplete passes by Newton. Carolina was limited to 21 points or fewer for the fourth time during this skid, as the Panthers topped the 31-point mark in four of six wins this season.

ROAD IS WHERE THE HEART IS

It’s well-known how much of a home-field advantage the Saints own, but the road numbers for New Orleans are staggering. Sean Payton’s squad has won six of seven on the highway, including an impressive 4-1 SU/ATS mark in the road favorite role. It’s been a nice bounce-back for New Orleans, who closed out last season with four straight away defeats and a 1-3 ATS record. The UNDER has cashed in five of seven road games, while allowing 20 points or less five times.

BACK TO THE BANK

Carolina hasn’t been able to put things together on the road at 1-6 this season. But, the Panthers are a different team (like everyone else) playing at home as Ron Rivera’s team owns a 5-1 mark at Bank of America Stadium. The lone home defeat came in their last home appearance back in Week 12 against Seattle in a 30-27 setback in the final seconds. Prior to that loss, Carolina strung together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark in Charlotte, which included four games that eclipsed the OVER.

TOTAL TALK

The Saints are currently on a four-game UNDER streak, as New Orleans is seeing a total below 50 for the first time since Week 7 at Baltimore (49). The Panthers have finished UNDER the total three times in the last four contests, but have gone OVER the total in five straight home games.

TRIPLE REVENGE

Not only does Carolina want to end its drought, but the Panthers look to avenge three losses to their division rivals from last season. New Orleans dominated Carolina at Bank of America Stadium, 34-13 as five-point underdogs, highlighted by three interceptions of Newton. The Saints took care of the Panthers at the Superdome in early December, 31-21 to cash as six-point favorites for the season sweep.

What about the third matchup? The two teams hooked up in the Big Easy for an NFC Wild Card showdown that looked to be a blowout as New Orleans led Carolina, 21-6. The Panthers crept back to make it 24-19 as 6 ½-point underdogs, but Alvin Kamara’s two-yard touchdown run with five minutes remaining gave the Saints back a 12-point advantage. However, the Panthers marched right down the field and Christian McCaffrey capped off the drive with a 56-yard touchdown reception from Newton to pick up the cover in a 31-26 defeat.

The Saints are favored at Carolina for the first time since 2014 when New Orleans pulled off a 28-10 rout as three-point chalk. New Orleans has covered in each of its past four visits to Bank of America Stadium, while the two teams have split those matchups.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

New Orleans is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season, as the Saints routed the Redskins, 43-19 in Week 5 at home. However, the Saints own a 2-4 record in their last six Monday night contests since 2014 with the last road win coming at Chicago in December 2014 as a short favorite. The Panthers have won three of their last four Monday night games since 2015, while making their first appearance in 2018.

GAME PROPS – Courtesy of Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Drew Brees
OVER 259 ½ (-110)
UNDER 259 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Drew Brees
OVER 2 (-130)
UNDER 2 (+110)

Will Michael Thomas score a touchdown?
YES +105
NO -125

Total Completions – Cam Newton
OVER 23 ½ (-110)
UNDER 23 (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Cam Newton
OVER 1 ½ (-130)
UNDER 1 ½ (+110)

Total Rushing + Receiving Yards – Christian McCaffrey
OVER 112 ½ (-110)
UNDER 112 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Saints opened up as 6 ½-point road favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that line has slightly dropped to 6 at many sports books. The total opened at 52, but has quickly fallen to 49 ½ at many locales, as this is the second-highest total Carolina has seen at home this season (55 ½ vs. Tampa Bay in Week 9).

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Colts 23, Cowboys 0— Indy won for 7th time in its last eight games; Dallas had their five-game win streak snapped. Cowboys are 2-5 on road this season; they had ball twice in red zone, turned it over both times, and had a 47-yard FG blocked on their first drive of the game.

Colts are tied with Ravens/Titans for #6 seed in AFC with two weeks left; they ran ball for 178 yards in this game. Andrew Luck has to be Comeback Player of the Year, yes?

Vikings 41, Dolphins 17— Minnesota went right down field first three times they had ball, scoring on TD drives of 76-60-70 yards, then Cousins threw a pick-6 on 4th drive and things got a little dicey, but Vikings pulled away late.

Vikings had nine sacks; Miami had 12 first downs and only 37 net passing yards. Yardage in this game was 418-193. Minnesota is 5-2 as a home favorite this year, 22-7 under Zimmer. Miami is 7-14 as road underdogs under Gase- they lost their last six road games.

Bengals 30, Raiders 16— 1:00 games were lackluster Sunday; 14 of the 18 teams stayed under their team total for the game. Bengals out rushed Oakland 171-68; two of their three TD drives were less than 50 yards (45-21 yards)- they scored 30 points but gained only 294 yards.

Bengals snapped a 5-game losing streak with this win; they won their home finale the last seven years. Oakland heads home for what is likely their last-ever game in Oakland next Sunday. Cincy QB Driskel gets his first NFL win as a starting QB. Over is 5-2 in Bengals’ last seven games.

Ravens 20, Buccaneers 12— Lamar Jackson is now 4-1 as a starting QB; Ravens ran ball for 242 yards, running 27 more plays (74-47) than Tampa Bay on a rainy day in Maryland. Tampa Bay went for two after its first TD and failed, then never scored another TD all day.

Buccaneers lost their last six road games; they’re 2-4-1 as road underdogs. Ravens are 5-2 SU at home- they’re tied with Colts/Titans for last playoff spot in AFC.

Bills 14, Lions 13— Buffalo is 3-2 in its last five games; they scored winning TD with 10:26 left and now they’re now- their win total for season is 6.5, so they’d have to win in Foxboro next week to have a shot at going over and that ain’t happening. Buffalo actually ran out of running backs in this game; all their active RB’s got hurt.

Detroit lost six of its last eight games; they scored 15.5 ppg the last four games. How is a team that pays its QB $28M a year this bad on offense? They have same offensive coaches they had last year; was Golden Tate that important a player for them? Seven of Lions’ last eight games stayed under the total.

Bears 24, Packers 17— Just third win in last 17 series games for Chicago, as Bears clinch the NFC North for first time since 2010, going 7-1 at home for first time since ’05. Chicago is 10-0 this year when they allow less than 24 points. Chicago had a 10-yard edge in field position.

Packers lost six of their last eight games- they’re 0-7 on road, 1-3-1 as road underdogs. Interesting to see with Packers eliminated, if Aaron Rodgers plays the last two games.

Titans 17, Giants 0— Tennessee ran ball for 215 yards on a rainy, dismal day in Swamp Stadium. Titans have now won three games in row; this was only second loss in last six games for Giants.

This was the Titans’ first shutout since a Christmas Day win over Dallas in 2000. Tennessee is tied for last playoff spot; those two 1-point losses back in October have to sting now. Titns are 8-6; this was only 4th time the season they led at halftime.

Redskins 16, Jaguars 13— Josh Johnson’s last NFL start was December 4, 2011, a 38-19 loss for Tampa Bay against the Panthers. Seven years later, he gets his first win (1-5) as an NFL starter, and the Redskins are still alive in the playoff race.- they’re half-game behind Minnesota for the #6 seed. Washington is 7-0 when they allow 17 or fewer points, 0-7 when they allow more.

Jacksonville had 20 net passing yards in this game, averaging 0.9 yards per attempt. Jaguars lost nine of their last ten games; they’ve scored one TD on their last 30 drives, and stayed under their team total in eight of last ten games. They should draft Kyler Murray.

Falcons 40, Cardinals 7— Atlanta took out its frustrations on the Cardinals as they snapped a 5-game losing skid; Falcons ran ball for 215 yards, outgained Arizona 435-253 and were +3 in turnovers. Atlanta also scored a defensive TD in breaking its 5-game losing streak.

Redbirds are 5-11 in last 16 games as road underdogs, 3-4 this year; they’ve lost by 10-33 points in their two games on artificial turf this season.

49ers 26, Seahawks 23 OT— Seattle went right down field and scored on their first drive, then missed PAT, 49ers ran kickoff back for a TD and Seahawks never led again. Seattle was flagged 14 times for 148 yards. Loss ends Seattle’s 4-game win streak.

49ers are 3-3 with Mullens at QB; do they keep him this winter, or get a pretty good draft pick for him in a trade? Seattle is now 3-8-1 in last dozen games as a road favorite.

Steelers 17, Patriots 10— New England finishes 3-5 on road, and were favored in all eight games; right now, they’re game behind Houston for #2 seed and first round bye in playoffs.

Patriots had ball in red zone on their last three drives, but scored total of 3 points, coming up empty on last two drives. Steelers snapped a 3-game skid with this win, stay ahead of Ravens in the AFC North. Six of last seven Patriot games, four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

Eagles 30, Rams 23:
— Philly hangs on for dear life, evens it record at 7-7.
— Eagles are half-game behind Minnesota for last playoff spot in NFC.
— Someone at The Mirage in Las Vegas bet $180,000 on the Rams’ money line; there was a $115,000 bet made on over 26 points in the first half. Neither bet won.
— Rams turned ball over nine times in three games since their bye; they’ll need to win out to get the #2 seed and the first round bye in the playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/16/2018 11-12-1 47.83% -11.00
12/15/2018 3-0-1 100.00% +15.00
12/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/10/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/09/2018 11-13-0 45.83% -16.50
12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............42-39-0.....51.85%.....-4.50

********************

Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

12/16/2018............2 - 5................-17.50......................5 - 2................+14.00..........-3.50
12/15/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................2 - 0................+10.00.........+15.00
12/13/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-0.50
12/10/2018............0 - 1.................-5.50.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-11.00
12/09/2018............3 - 3.................-1.50.......................5 - 6.................-3.00.............-4.50
12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals.....................12 - 13..............-11.50....................14 - 13.............+3.50..............-8.00

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Colts 23, Cowboys 0— Indy won for 7th time in its last eight games; Dallas had their five-game win streak snapped. Cowboys are 2-5 on road this season; they had ball twice in red zone, turned it over both times, and had a 47-yard FG blocked on their first drive of the game.

Colts are tied with Ravens/Titans for #6 seed in AFC with two weeks left; they ran ball for 178 yards in this game. Andrew Luck has to be Comeback Player of the Year, yes?

Vikings 41, Dolphins 17— Minnesota went right down field first three times they had ball, scoring on TD drives of 76-60-70 yards, then Cousins threw a pick-6 on 4th drive and things got a little dicey, but Vikings pulled away late.

Vikings had nine sacks; Miami had 12 first downs and only 37 net passing yards. Yardage in this game was 418-193. Minnesota is 5-2 as a home favorite this year, 22-7 under Zimmer. Miami is 7-14 as road underdogs under Gase- they lost their last six road games.

Bengals 30, Raiders 16— 1:00 games were lackluster Sunday; 14 of the 18 teams stayed under their team total for the game. Bengals out rushed Oakland 171-68; two of their three TD drives were less than 50 yards (45-21 yards)- they scored 30 points but gained only 294 yards.

Bengals snapped a 5-game losing streak with this win; they won their home finale the last seven years. Oakland heads home for what is likely their last-ever game in Oakland next Sunday. Cincy QB Driskel gets his first NFL win as a starting QB. Over is 5-2 in Bengals’ last seven games.

Ravens 20, Buccaneers 12— Lamar Jackson is now 4-1 as a starting QB; Ravens ran ball for 242 yards, running 27 more plays (74-47) than Tampa Bay on a rainy day in Maryland. Tampa Bay went for two after its first TD and failed, then never scored another TD all day.

Buccaneers lost their last six road games; they’re 2-4-1 as road underdogs. Ravens are 5-2 SU at home- they’re tied with Colts/Titans for last playoff spot in AFC.

Bills 14, Lions 13— Buffalo is 3-2 in its last five games; they scored winning TD with 10:26 left and now they’re now- their win total for season is 6.5, so they’d have to win in Foxboro next week to have a shot at going over and that ain’t happening. Buffalo actually ran out of running backs in this game; all their active RB’s got hurt.

Detroit lost six of its last eight games; they scored 15.5 ppg the last four games. How is a team that pays its QB $28M a year this bad on offense? They have same offensive coaches they had last year; was Golden Tate that important a player for them? Seven of Lions’ last eight games stayed under the total.

Bears 24, Packers 17— Just third win in last 17 series games for Chicago, as Bears clinch the NFC North for first time since 2010, going 7-1 at home for first time since ’05. Chicago is 10-0 this year when they allow less than 24 points. Chicago had a 10-yard edge in field position.

Packers lost six of their last eight games- they’re 0-7 on road, 1-3-1 as road underdogs. Interesting to see with Packers eliminated, if Aaron Rodgers plays the last two games.

Titans 17, Giants 0— Tennessee ran ball for 215 yards on a rainy, dismal day in Swamp Stadium. Titans have now won three games in row; this was only second loss in last six games for Giants.

This was the Titans’ first shutout since a Christmas Day win over Dallas in 2000. Tennessee is tied for last playoff spot; those two 1-point losses back in October have to sting now. Titns are 8-6; this was only 4th time the season they led at halftime.

Redskins 16, Jaguars 13— Josh Johnson’s last NFL start was December 4, 2011, a 38-19 loss for Tampa Bay against the Panthers. Seven years later, he gets his first win (1-5) as an NFL starter, and the Redskins are still alive in the playoff race.- they’re half-game behind Minnesota for the #6 seed. Washington is 7-0 when they allow 17 or fewer points, 0-7 when they allow more.

Jacksonville had 20 net passing yards in this game, averaging 0.9 yards per attempt. Jaguars lost nine of their last ten games; they’ve scored one TD on their last 30 drives, and stayed under their team total in eight of last ten games. They should draft Kyler Murray.

Falcons 40, Cardinals 7— Atlanta took out its frustrations on the Cardinals as they snapped a 5-game losing skid; Falcons ran ball for 215 yards, outgained Arizona 435-253 and were +3 in turnovers. Atlanta also scored a defensive TD in breaking its 5-game losing streak.

Redbirds are 5-11 in last 16 games as road underdogs, 3-4 this year; they’ve lost by 10-33 points in their two games on artificial turf this season.

49ers 26, Seahawks 23 OT— Seattle went right down field and scored on their first drive, then missed PAT, 49ers ran kickoff back for a TD and Seahawks never led again. Seattle was flagged 14 times for 148 yards. Loss ends Seattle’s 4-game win streak.

49ers are 3-3 with Mullens at QB; do they keep him this winter, or get a pretty good draft pick for him in a trade? Seattle is now 3-8-1 in last dozen games as a road favorite.

Steelers 17, Patriots 10— New England finishes 3-5 on road, and were favored in all eight games; right now, they’re game behind Houston for #2 seed and first round bye in playoffs.

Patriots had ball in red zone on their last three drives, but scored total of 3 points, coming up empty on last two drives. Steelers snapped a 3-game skid with this win, stay ahead of Ravens in the AFC North. Six of last seven Patriot games, four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

Eagles 30, Rams 23:
— Philly hangs on for dear life, evens it record at 7-7.
— Eagles are half-game behind Minnesota for last playoff spot in NFC.
— Someone at The Mirage in Las Vegas bet $180,000 on the Rams’ money line; there was a $115,000 bet made on over 26 points in the first half. Neither bet won.
— Rams turned ball over nine times in three games since their bye; they’ll need to win out to get the #2 seed and the first round bye in the playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 17
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NO at CAR 08:15 PM

CAR +6.0

U 50.5

[StarDust Bum]

Saints' D puts clamps on Newton in 12-9 win over Panthers
December 17, 2018
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CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) New Orleans put the clamps on Cam Newton, and the Saints beat the Carolina Panthers 12-9 on Monday night to take a big step toward locking up home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.

The Saints' defense, which has been among the best in the league the last six weeks, held the former MVP to 131 yards passing, sacked him four times and forced two turnovers on a night when Drew Brees and the offense couldn't get much going.

Alvin Kamara had 103 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, and Brees had 203 yards passing for the Saints (12-2), who took a one-game lead in the NFC over the Rams. The Saints close the season at home against Pittsburgh and Carolina; the Rams visit Arizona and host San Francisco.

Carolina's only scores came off a trick play on fourth down - a 50-yard touchdown pass from running back Christian McCaffrey to tight end Chris Manhertz - and an interception return by Donte Jackson on a 2-point conversion attempt.

The Saints limited Carolina (6-8) to 247 yards and 13 first downs as Newton struggled throwing the ball more than 10 yards down the field with a sore right shoulder.

The Panthers have lost six straight and are all but eliminated from playoff contention. They're 1 1/2 games behind the Vikings and one game behind the Eagles and Redskins for the second NFC wild card spot with two games remaining.

The Panthers struck first after offensive coordinator Norv Turner dug into his bag of tricks.

On a fourth-and-2 from midfield, McCaffrey got a handoff, took a step toward the line, then stepped back and lofted a perfect pass over the middle to Manhertz, who was 15 yards behind the defense. Manhertz trotted into the end zone for a 50-yard touchdown and a 7-0 lead.

It was McCaffrey's first career pass attempt, although he threw two TD passes while at Stanford. He became the first non-QB to throw a TD pass in Panthers history.

The Saints responded with two field goals by Wil Lutz and appeared on the verge of taking the lead before halftime, but James Bradberry intercepted Brees' tipped pass and returned it to Saints territory. Carolina's subsequent drive ended when Eli Apple intercepted Newton in the end zone with 10 seconds left in the half.

The Panthers held the Saints in check for most of the third quarter, but the game changed when Panthers receiver D.J. Moore fumbled on an inside handoff. The Saints pounced, capping an 84-yard drive with a 16-yard TD run by Kamara to make it 12-7 early in the fourth quarter. The Saints went for 2, but Brees' toss was intercepted by Jackson, who took it back nearly 100 yards.

A fumble by Tommylee Lewis near the goal line turned into a touchback and gave Carolina one last chance to tie the game with 1:44 remaining. But the Panthers couldn't move the ball and turned it over on downs.

NATIONAL ANTHEM

Panthers safety Eric Reid continued to kneel during the national anthem to protect social and racial injustice.

McCAFFREY SETS MARK

McCaffrey broke DeAngelo Williams' single-season franchise record of 1,636 yards from scrimmage with a rush in the first quarter. He finished with 110 yards rushing and receiving.

DUBIOUS STREAK

The loss extended the Panthers' streak of never having posted back-to-back winning seasons since joining the NFL in 1995.

CAM'S CLEATS

During pregame warmups, Newton wore cleats that advertised a North Carolina winery and a picture of a broom snapped in half. Newton received a bottle of ''Jordan'' wine from Saints defensive end Cam Jordan and a broom from someone on the Saints after New Orleans swept Carolina in three games last season. Whatever message he intended to send didn't work out so well.

OLSEN UPDATE

Panthers tight end Greg Olsen had surgery on his right foot Monday, his second procedure on the foot in the last 16 months. Olsen wrote on Instagram that ''surgery went well and I am on my way towards a full recovery.''

INJURY UPDATE

Saints: Center Max Unger left the game in the first half after being evaluated for a concussion and did not return. He was replaced by Cameron Tom.

Panthers: Newton struggled with his shoulder throughout the game, forcing him to throw short passes - many of which were off the mark - even when the Panthers needed to take shots down the field. Despite the injury, coach Ron Rivera said he is not considering sitting down Newton next week.

UP NEXT

Saints: Host the Steelers on Sunday.

Panthers: Host the Falcons on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Teams in betting rotation who get highest %age of their points on 3’s:
44.9%- Citadel
43.5%- Detroit
43.1%- Dartmouth
42.3%- Purdue
41.9%- Eastern Washington
41.9%- Creighton

Quote of the Day
“I ain’t worried about nobody but myself.”
Jaguars’ CB Jalen Ramsey, when asked about his coach’s job status

Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Jason Witten play his college football?

Monday’s quiz
The old TV show Homicide was set in Baltimore.

Sunday’s quiz
Baylor University is located in Waco, TX


Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Before the NFL season started, a courageous gambler wagered $70,000 on the Cleveland Browns to go over 5.5 wins this season. Now that person can put his/her feet up and relax for the last two weeks of the season with a winning ticket in pocket.

Well done, but wonder how often a team has fired its coach during the season and still went over its win total for the season?

12) My nomination for most underrated sports achievement of the last 20 years; Butler playing for the national title in college basketball two years in a row. Bulldogs are in the Big East now, but they were in the freakin’ Horizon League back then.

In seven years since Butler played for the national title, Horizon League teams are 0-7 in the NCAA tournament, 2-5 vs spread and they were the underdog in all seven games.

Brad Stevens coached Butler back then; now obviously, he is doing well in the NBA in Boston.

11) From Rick Gosselin: The Bill Vinovich officiating crew has called the fewest penalties in the NFL this season. The Vinovich crew also has worked five Sunday night prime-time games. The NFL prefers its primetime games not to have a lot of penalties called.

10) This is pretty cool: Drew Brees sent a customized game ball and a personalized letter to anybody that caught a pass from him or started on the offensive line during his career for their contributions to his all-time NFL passing yardage record.

9) From The Athletic: Since 2014, Houston Texans are 30-1 when leading at halftime; Dallas is 32-11, the Browns are 10-12.

8) Teams leading at halftime have won 76.3% of NFL playoff games since the league expanded to a 12-team playoff field in 1990.

7) Notre Dame’s Rex Pflueger will miss the remainder of this basketball season with a torn ACL; very big loss for a young Fighting Irish team (#282 in experience) that is 7-3.

6) Texas Tech is the only college basketball team in country that still hasn’t allowed more than a point per possession in a game this season; they play Duke Thursday night.

5) Cincinnati Reds sent 61 employees to Las Vegas for the winter meetings; they have all kinds of meetings/trade shows at the winter meetings, from front office people to trainers to souvenir sales. Plus its a reward for lot of hard work during the season.

4) If you’re in a dynasty league in fantasy baseball and you have Daniel Palka on your team, the Yonder Alonso trade is bad for you, because now Palka either plays LF or comes off the bench, with Jose Abreu/Alonso slotted to man the White Sox’ DH/first base spots.

3) Jeurys Familia got $31M from the Mets for three years, and another $1M if he gets traded; is this a great country or what?

2) Big money college sports claimed another casualty last weekend; the seven-year old Hy-Vee Classic, an annual doubleheader with Iowa’s four Division I hoop programs, is done after this week because the Big 14 is going to a 20-game conference schedule. God forbid Iowa play a non-conference team they could actually lose to.

Basically, Iowa is afraid of playing Drake and Northern Iowa every other year; imagine that?

1) Saints 12, Panthers 9— Cam Newton threw an INT in end zone near end of first half, then Carolina fumbled after a long run in Saints territory. Panthers’ defense played their hearts out, but Newton looks terrible, not sure if he is injured or not. He throws like his arm hurts.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot & Not Report
December 17, 2018
By YouWager.eu

Who's Hot and Who's Not

Week of Dec 17th

In last week's piece I touched on a few different runs going on in the NFL and Week 15's results came with a mixed bag regarding those scenarios.

Home underdogs in the NFL continued their hot stretch of play, as they went 2-0-1 ATS vs the closing line so far in Week 15, with the Steelers and 49ers winning outright. Only Carolina has yet to play in that role this week, and they'll need to stretch out the now 11-7 SU run home underdogs are on the last three weeks to essentially keep their season alive.

The Panthers also resided in the “Not” part of last week's piece as a former NFC Super Bowl representative, and the two franchises grouped in with them managed to snap significant poor runs in Week 15.

Atlanta blew out the Cardinals basically from start to finish, while the Eagles went out to LA again and beat the Rams outright with Nick Foles back under center. It's still just a 3-16 ATS run – with Carolina on MNF pending – for these past Super Bowl representatives from the NFC, but with two of the three (Carolina, Philadelphia) still clinging onto playoff hopes this year, it will be interesting to see how those two squads finish the campaign.

It's on to things we can potentially use one way or another for this upcoming week, so let's get right to it:

Who's Hot

NFL Divisional games 'Over' the total: 7-3 O/U last two weeks

This streak puts tonight's New Orleans/Carolina game in it as well, but for those that prefer to look to 'unders' in division games, it hasn't been a good couple of weeks in that regard.

Late in the year when the weather turns and teams have a substantial amount of film on opponents – especially familiar division foes – the prevailing thought is to expect lower-scoring games as the defenses have a beat on what they need to do. A lot of the times these are return matches too between division foes since they met earlier in the year, and having first hand experience against someone never hurts. However, that hasn't been the case the past two weeks, as division matchups are on a 7-3 O/U run, with OT needed in two of those seven 'overs.'

The extra session didn't account for why those 'overs' hit, but it does hint at how tight these games tend to be between rivals down the stretch. These 10 division games have been averaging 49.5 points per contest, but for those bettors that aren't shy about playing halves, we do see more scoring coming in the final two frames (and OT) with these 10 division games averaging 25.3 points during those final 30 minutes. In the 4th quarters alone we are seeing 14.8 points scored total between division rivals, as these teams aren't scared at all about pulling out all the stops late.

So I wouldn't be shy about pulling the trigger on some second half 'over' plays when division rivals are involved, especially with six divisional matchups upcoming in Week 16.

Who's Not

NFL Non-Conference games 'Over' the total: 1-9 O/U last three weeks

For years earlier this decade, NFL games pitting an AFC team vs a NFC team always attracted 'over' money and they tended to hit at a high rate. Logically, there is less intensity and hatred in these non-conference matchups, and when games play out in that fashion, defenses tend to “let up” some for a variety of reasons. Lack of hatred is one, but so is the lack of familiarity of what the offensive opponents would run, and typically it was the offenses that had the better day.

But during the past three weeks that hasn't been the case at all with 'unders' in non-conference games cashing at a 90% clip. The Miami/Minnesota game on Sunday was the only one to sail 'over' their respective number on a day where non-conference games in Week 15 finished with a 1-5 O/U record. Those games averaged a measly 31 points per game, as only the Tampa/Baltimore game eclipsed that average by finishing with 32 total points. Take out that Minnesota game and you've got a very anaemic average of just 25.6 points per game between non-conference foes in Week 15.

The offensive futility didn't start there though, as Week 14 and Week 13 went a combined 0-4 O/U in non-conference games with their average point totals coming in at just 39 points per game. Add it all up, and over the course of the last three weeks, non-conference games have averaged just 34.2 points per game during these past three weeks.

This is one streak that may see some regression to the mean during the final week of the season (Week 17 is all division games) as there are six different non-conference games on tap in Week 16. A few of them feature some dynamic offenses like Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Houston and Kansas City, so chances are that average of 34.2 points goes up quite a bit. Whether or not it's enough to get off 'under' plays in these games remains to be seen though.

[StarDust Bum]

Early bettors like Saints' odds for key NFL Week 16 battle vs. Steelers
Patrick Everson

Stevan Ridley and Pittsburgh got a much-needed win over New England in Week 15. But the Steelers opened as 6.5-point Week 16 'dogs at New Orleans, with the Saints snaring some early money.

The NFL season is down to its final two weeks, with plenty of teams still playing meaningful games. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of Week 16 contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

After a three-game SU and ATS slide, Pittsburgh needed to right the ship in Week 15 and did so as a home underdog. The Steelers (8-5-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) were catching 2.5 points against New England and won outright 17-10.

Thanks to the Rams’ stunning home loss to the Eagles in the Sunday nighter, New Orleans now stands alone atop the NFC, although it still has Week 15 work to do in the Monday nighter at Carolina. The Saints (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) own the best pointspread record in the league.

“The Steelers had to beat the Patriots with this trip to New Orleans looming, and they got it done,” Murray said. “They face an uphill battle in terms of getting a bye and are clinging to the division lead. The Saints need a win too, as they are vying for home-field advantage in the NFC. This will be the most heavily bet game of the week, other than the Sunday night game (Chiefs-Seahawks).”

Murray said some early money came in on the Saints, but nothing sharp, and the line was still at New Orleans -6.5 late Sunday night.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

Los Angeles is in the prime-time spotlight for a second straight week, this time on Saturday, after a surprising comeback victory in the Week 15 Thursday nighter. The Chargers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied from a 28-14 fourth-quarter deficit, scoring a touchdown in the waning seconds, then getting a successful 2-point conversion to win 29-28.

Baltimore won four of its last five to gain ground on Pittsburgh and make things interesting in the AFC North. In Week 15, the Ravens (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) topped Tampa Bay 20-12, falling just short of cashing as 8.5-point home favorites.

“Both teams are in the thick of the AFC playoff race,” Murray said. “The Chargers are coming off a great win at Kansas City and can still secure home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. This is exactly the kind of game the Chargers have historically lost with Philip Rivers at quarterback.”

Although this line dipped to Chargers -4.5 shortly after opening, Murray said The SuperBook was moving with the market, not on money.

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

Kansas City is still the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but could’ve been in much better position if it hadn’t blown a 14-point fourth quarter lead Thursday night. The Chiefs (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) took a 28-14 lead with 8:15 remaining against the Los Angeles Chargers, then gave up two TDs. The second of those, with four seconds remaining, was followed by a 2-point conversion and K.C. fell 29-28 as 3.5-point home chalk.

Seattle was certainly trending in the right direction in making a late playoff push, but stubbed its toe in Week 15. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) were 3.5-point favorites at San Francisco, but lost outright 26-23 in overtime.

As noted above, Murray expects this Sunday night clash to be the biggest-bet game of the week.

“We opened the Chiefs -2.5, and I won’t be surprised to see this line go up during the week, especially if the Chargers beat the Ravens on Saturday night,” Murray said. “The pressure will be on the Chiefs to hold serve in the AFC West race. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are likely the No. 5 5 seed in the NFC, even with their loss today to the 49ers.”

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10)

Despite working with its fourth starting quarterback this season in Josh Johnson, Washington is currently just a game out of the NFC playoff picture. The Redskins (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied in the fourth quarter to beat Jacksonville 16-13 as 7.5-point road pups in Week 15.

Tennessee is still in the postseason hunt, too, though like Washington is on the outside looking in. The Titans (8-6 SU and ATS) blanked the New York Giants 17-0 laying 2.5 points on the road in Week 15.

“We saw money come in right away on the Titans -10, and I cans see why,” Murray said, though he added it wasn’t enough to move off the opening number. “It’s hard to picture the Redskins’ offense with Josh Johnson at QB putting up points on the road against the Titans. Both teams are technically still in the playoff race. Expect a lot of moneyline parlays to start with Tennessee this week.”