Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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Jaguars: 4 players detained over bill restitution in London
October 27, 2018
By The Associated Press

LONDON (AP) The Jacksonville Jaguars say four players were detained over restitution of a bill in London.

The Jaguars (3-4) play Philadelphia (3-4) at Wembley Stadium on Sunday. The incident reportedly happened early Saturday following what typically is an off night for players.

The teams says ''we are aware that four of our players were detained over restitution of a bill. The matter is being resolved and the players are with the team. Any discipline will be handled internally.''

The Jaguars did not say which players were detained. The London-based Sun reported that the players were accused of trying to leave the London Reign Showclub, which features burlesque and circus performers, without paying their tab.

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 8
October 26, 2018
By Micah Roberts

Week 8 of the NFL is a bizarre looking schedule with lots of possible pitfalls for Nevada sports books who come into the week still reeling from a Week 7 loss.

"There are a lot of big numbers out there this week and its kind of scared the public away on the most popular teams they like to bet weekly like the Rams, Chiefs, and Patriots," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "I'm sure they'll take them on the day of the game, but right now not much."

The 7-0 Rams are 8.5-point home favorites against the Packers, the Chiefs are 9.5-point home favorites against the Broncos, and the Patriots are -14 at Buffalo on Monday night.

"Sharp money took the Packers +9 earlier in the week against the Rams," said Simbal who has one of the three -8.5's in town. Most books like the Westgate SuperBook, William Hill, Station Casinos and Mirage are -9. The Stratosphere is protecting against expected public parlay and teaser play and has the Rams -9.5.

Despite being undefeated, the number has been catching up with the Rams who are the highest rated team in the NFL. They covered the spread with 39-10 win at San Francisco last week ending a 0-3 ATS run. The Packers have been beaten soundly in both their road games, 31-17 at Washington and 31-23 at Detroit.

While there has been a pause on the popular public teams, for now, the public is still firing away on some teams reinvesting all the cash they won last week.

"What we are seeing from the public so far is them keying on the bad teams and betting against them," said Simbal. "They're betting the Colts, but I think it's more about them betting against the Raiders. That's the same thing with the Redskins who they're betting a lot because they're betting against the Giants."

The 2-5 Colts are 3-point favorites at Oakland and there's a perception that the 1-5 Raiders are already surrendering and building for the future (Las Vegas).

"We did have some sharp money play the Colts, but I think that was more about a bad opening number," said Simbal. "We opened -1 and they laid it as well as -2 and -2.5, but nothing at -3."

The 1-6 Giants are getting +1 at home against the NFC East-leading Redskins (4-2) who hit the road for the third time this season. They were blown out 43-19 at New Orleans four weeks ago and won Week 1, 24-6, at Arizona.

CG Tech books are one of two books in Las Vegas to have the Bears -8 at home against the Jets while the rest of the town is -7.5.

"Yeah, we had some sharp play on the Bears early on," said Simbal, who opened the Bears - 6.5. "They had some early intel about two (Jets) wide receivers being out and most of the secondary being banged up as well."

Simbal said the Eagles, Buccaneers, and Ravens have also attracted sharp money. The Eagles are -3 (-120) against the Jaguars in London. Blake Bortles will start at QB, but he'll be on a short leash just like last week when he replaced by Cody Kessler in a 20-7 home loss to Houston. The Jags have lost their last three games, failing to cover all three, and the big deal this week is three of their cornerbacks being Out.

The Bengals opened as 6-point home favorites against the Buccaneers and are down to as low as -3.5 at Wynn and SuperBook. CG Tech books are at -4. The reason for the wagers is because the Bengals have the 31st ranked defense allowing 29 ppg and 429 ypg and they've lost their last two.

The Ravens opened -1 at Carolina and it's been bet up -2.5 (-120) at CG Tech books. Wynn and the Mirage are already at -3 EVEN. The South Point is still at -2.5 and they're usually the best indicator in these 2.5/3 situations. The Ravens have all of their corners banged up.

"One of our sharpest bettor who consistently does well, a guy who is given half limits at most other places in town, played the Broncos-Chiefs total Under 54 and we're at 53.5 now," Simbal said.

While the inflated spreads have been no issue for the Chiefs to cover, the inflated totals have seen them stay Under in three of their last four despite having highest scoring offense at 37 ppg and the worst defense in the NFL allowing 435 ypg. The Chiefs won 27-23 at Denver in Week 4 staying Under 53.5. The Chiefs have now stayed Under in seven of their last eight when posted as the favorite.

Simbal also shared some other large wagers from sharps on totals of other games.

"They bet the Giants-Redskins Over 42 pushing us to 43.5 and took the 49ers-Cardinals game Under 42.5 and we're at 42 now," he said. "We had a couple plays on the Rams and Packers Under 57.5, but public money has been betting the Over since we went to 56.5."

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Gridiron Angles - Week 8
October 27, 2018
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 10-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since Jan 01, 2017 coming off a win where they allowed fewer points than expected.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Broncos are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since Dec 10, 2006 as a road dog of more than three points where they allowed less than 300 passing yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Teams are 0-10 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since Dec 13, 2015 coming off a loss where Alshon Jeffery had at least 75 receiving yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Jets are 0-10-1 OU (-4.6 ppg) since Nov 17, 2011 on the road off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Colts are 10-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since Nov 22, 2007 as a favorite off a game as a home favorite.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Colts are 13-0 ATS (+12.19 ppg) as a FG-plus road favorite over a team that is less than 500 and has a seasonto-date average rushing attempts per game of fewer than 25.

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Total Talk - Week 8
October 27, 2018
By Chris David

The ‘under’ produced an eye-opening 10-4 record in Week 7 and that’s the most lopsided total results we’ve seen in a week this season. The New Orleans-Baltimore 24-23 final could’ve and probably should’ve gone ‘over’ (49 ½) if it wasn’t for a missed extra point by Ravens kicker Justin Tucker but to be fair, that was a 10-7 game at halftime and ‘under’ bettors were on the right side. Late-night ‘over’ bettors on Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and Bengals could have a gripe too as KC pulled off the gas late but we’ve certainly seen that movie before.

Through seven weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 55-52 (51%) mark and the oddsmakers should be applauded with their adjustments.

2018 RESULTS - OTHER

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 7 4-1 0-3 1-2 0-0

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 17-12 13-16 13-7 5-2
Keep an Eye On

-- Teams off the ‘bye’ have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their following game and the one ‘under’ was the Saints-Ravens outcome mentioned above. Along with New Orleans, Detroit also won last Sunday with rest so teams playing off the bye improved to 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread on the season. The four teams playing with rest this weekend include the Packers, Raiders, Steelers and Seahawks.

-- The ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in the NFL International Series matchups played at London this season. The Jaguars and Eagles will meet this weekend from Wembley Stadium (9:30 a.m. ET). The final international game will take place on Nov. 19 from Mexico City when the Chiefs and Rams square off in a possible Super Bowl preview at Estadio Azteca. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

-- A trio (Packers, Buccaneers, Lions) of old-school NFC Central (Google it) teams have been the best ‘over’ teams (5-1) so far. Four clubs (Cowboys, Bills, Ravens, Titans) have all watched the ‘under’ go 5-2.

-- Two systems I noted last week both came up as losers and while the final scores seemed close to ‘over’ tickets, the ‘under’ was the right side in both games. The “Thursday Night Total” system sits at 5-1 and the angle applies to the San Francisco-Arizona game this Sunday, since the Cardinals played at home on Thursday in Week 7. The “Road Total System” sits at 0-2 this season and will be in play for the final time when the Saints play their third straight road game at Carolina in Week 15.

-- It took a while but we’re starting to see the defenses catch up with the offenses. There were four totals that closed in the fifties last week and the ‘under’ went 4-0 in those games. Through seven weeks, the ‘under’ owns a 13-12 mark in games that closed at 50 or higher. We’ll find out if last week was an anomaly with five games in Week 7 having totals listed in the fifties.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 8 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville: 41 to 43
N.Y. Jets at Chicago: 46 to 44
Denver at Kansas City: 55 ½ to 53 ½
San Francisco at Arizona: 43 ½ to 41 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 8 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

New Orleans at Minnesota: Over 93%
Philadelphia at Jacksonville: Over 90%
Indianapolis at Oakland: Over 90%
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Under 88%
New England at Buffalo: Over 84%

Divisional Matchups

The ‘under’ went 3-0 in the divisional games last week and the low side is 16-13 in these contests on the season. This week’s batch has three rematches on tap.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The pair played to a 21-21 tie in Week 1 and the late rally by the Browns helped the ‘over’ (41) connect. The high side is now 3-1 in the last four meetings. While rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield has shown some flashes, the offense (16.3 PPG) has looked pedestrian the last three weeks while the Steelers have scored 41 and 28 points in their last two wins and they’re coming off the bye.

Denver at Kansas City: The Chiefs captured a 27-23 win at the Broncos in Week 4 and the ‘under’ (53 ½) slid in. Prior to that result, the ‘over’ was on a 5-0-1 run in this series. Denver exploded for 45 points last week at Arizona but two of the scores came from the defense. The Broncos had success running the football (159 yards) in the first meeting and I would expect them to push that game-plan again, especially against if you want to keep the league’s top scoring offense in the Chiefs (37.1 PPG) off the field. Even though KC has lit up the scoreboard, the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight and four of the last five in this series. Knowing that the Redskins have been winning games with their run offense and run defense this season, it’s hard to imagine a shootout here. Especially, when you factor in the Giants offense that is averaging 15.3 PPG at home. Washington (4-2) and New York (4-3) have both leaned to the ‘under’ this season.

San Francisco at Arizona: A lot of heavy money has already come in on the ‘under’ in this game and it’s hard to disagree with the move based on the form for both clubs. Arizona captured a 28-18 win at SF in their Week 5 encounter and the ‘over’ (40 ½) connected, thanks to 26 combined points in the fourth quarter. Prior to that lucky result, the ‘under’ had cashed in the three previous meetings. We haven’t seen much from the Cardinals (13.1 PPG) offensively yet they have seen the ‘over’ cash in three straight games.

New England at Buffalo: (See Below)

Under the Lights

After watching the Thursday Night matchup go ‘over’ in Week 7, the ‘under’ connected in the Sunday and Monday matchups. Including this past TNF outcome between the Dolphins and Texans, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge (12-11) through 23 games played at night. Make a note that we’ve seen the ‘over’ cash in five straight TNF matchups and the high side is 6-2 (75%) on the season in the midweek game.

New Orleans at Minnesota: The rematch of the ‘Minnesota Miracle’ is easily the top game of the weekend and bettors are expecting the Saints (-2) to get revenge over the Vikings, who have some key injuries all over the field. The total (53) seems a tad inflated when you consider the two meetings last season (Week 1, Playoffs) closed at 46 ½ and 47 ½. The Viking have improved offensively with QB Kirk Cousins but he’s been sloppy at home this season and against weaker opponents. The Saints offense (34 PPG) remains a machine under QB Drew Brees and even though the defense (27.2 PPG) is still suspect, the unit has been a tad better on the road.

New England at Buffalo: When the Patriots went 16-0 in the 2007 regular season, they were listed as 16-point road favorites over the Bills and destroyed them 56-10. Fast forward to this Monday and New England is once again a double-digit road favorite (-13 ½) at Orchard Park. While this Patriots team isn’t on the same level of the 2007 squad, Buffalo could be worse. The Bills (11.6 PPG) can’t move the football and the QB situation is a mess. Even though New England has scored 38-plus points in four straight games, this is the lowest total (44) that it has seen this season and it’s hard to imagine Buffalo helping the cause. I expect a business trip for the Patriots with a lot of ground and pound action, especially with a tougher test (Green Bay) on deck next week at home.

Fearless Predictions

As we all know, catching breaks is a big part of the business and the missed PAT in the Ravens game kept our deficit ($10) to a minimum. Through seven weeks and 28 wagers, we remain up on the season ($340). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Green Bay-L.A. Rams 56 ½
Best Under: N.Y. Jets-Chicago 44
Best Team Total: Over 28 ½ Steelers

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 41 Seattle-Detroit
Under 51 Washington-N.Y. Giants
Over 45 ½ New Orleans-Minnesota

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Sunday Blitz - Week 8
October 27, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Browns at Steelers (-8, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

When these two AFC North rivals met in the season opener in Cleveland, Pittsburgh jumped out to a 21-7 lead. The Browns (2-4-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) rallied to force overtime, but couldn’t pick up the win. However, Cleveland didn’t lose either as the two teams finished in a 21-21 tie, the first of four overtime contests for the Browns this season. Now, the Browns look to end a 14-game losing streak at Heinz Field as Cleveland last won in Pittsburgh back in 2003.

The Steelers (3-2-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) are slowly creeping back into the AFC North race following consecutive wins over the Falcons and Bengals. Pittsburgh finally picked up its first divisional victory in a Week 7 triumph at Cincinnati, 28-21 as Ben Roethlisberger hit Antonio Brown for a 31-yard touchdown and its fifth straight win at Paul Brown Stadium. The Steelers are still without running back Le’Veon Bell due to his holdout, but James Conner is coming off his second straight two-touchdown, 100+ yard rushing performance.

Cleveland is one of three teams in the NFL that has covered at least five games this season (Kansas City and Detroit the others), while all three of its road losses have come by exactly three points each time. Top pick Baker Mayfield is facing the Steelers for the first time after Tyrod Taylor got the start in the opener, throwing a touchdown pass and rushing for another score. Cleveland caused six Pittsburgh turnovers in the Week 1 tie, but the Steelers have committed only four turnovers in the past five games.

Best Bet: Steelers 27, Browns 20

Buccaneers at Bengals (-4, 54 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay covered in each of the first two victories of the season against New Orleans and Philadelphia, but the Buccaneers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) have failed to cash in the past four games. The Bucs squandered a 14-point lead last Sunday against the Browns, but Tampa Bay came through with a 26-23 overtime triumph on Chandler Catanzaro’s 59-yard field goal. Although Tampa Bay snapped a three-game losing streak and won for the first time with Jameis Winston starting at quarterback this season, the Bucs failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites.

The Bengals (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) were on their way to being part of the AFC elite following a 4-1 start. But, Cincinnati was humbled quickly in a last-minute loss to Pittsburgh, followed by a 45-10 drubbing at Kansas City last Sunday night to fall into second place in the AFC North. Cincinnati has been outgained by over 200 yards in each of those defeats, while falling to 0-3 this season when scoring 21 points or less.

Will Tampa Bay’s defense turn things around on the road? The Bucs have yielded 40, 48, and 34 points in three contests away from Raymond James Stadium, while Tampa Bay hit its first UNDER of the season in last week’s win over Cleveland. Cincinnati started the season on a 4-0 OVER run, but have gone the other way the last three weeks with three UNDERS, while hitting the OVER in both contests against NFC South foes.

Best Bet: Bengals 31, Buccaneers 28

Packers at Rams (-9 ½, 56 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

One undefeated team remains in the NFL as Los Angeles (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) looks to stay perfect as the Rams return home this Sunday. The Rams picked up a three-game road sweep against the Seahawks, Broncos, and 49ers, but failed to cover in close victories at Seattle and Denver. L.A. rolled past San Francisco last Sunday, 39-10 to easily cash as 8 ½-point favorites, as Todd Gurley rushed for two touchdowns to move to 14 total touchdowns on the season which ranks tops in the NFL.

The Packers (3-2-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) also faced the 49ers in their last game, coming back in Week 6 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay was on the verge of defeat before Aaron Rodgers pulled off another rally by leading the Packers to 10 points in the final two minutes of a 33-30 victory to move above the .500 mark. Although Green Bay didn’t cash tickets as a nine-point home favorite, Rodgers eclipsed the 400-yard passing mark for the second straight game, while improving his touchdown to interception ratio to 12/1 on the season.

The last time the Packers were this large of an underdog with Rodgers starting came in the 2014 NFC championship at Seattle. Green Bay fell in overtime, 28-22 but cashed as 8 ½-point underdogs, as the Pack hasn’t been listed as higher than a two-point ‘dog this season. The Rams’ offense has been nearly unstoppable at the Coliseum this season by scoring 34, 35, and 38 points, while putting up at least 30 points in all but one game this season.

Best Bet: Rams 34, Packers 28

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (2-3 last week, 19-14-2 on season)
Browns +8
Chiefs -10
Redskins PK
Buccaneers +4 ½
Packers +9 ½

Chris David (3-2 last week, 21-13-1 on season)
Broncos -10
Seahawks +3
Raiders +3
Cardinals +1
Patriots -13.5

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (6-1)
Bears over Jets

Chris David (6-1)
Patriots over Bills

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 50 ½ - Colts at Raiders

Indianapolis has scored 34 and 37 points the last two weeks, but the Colts put up their strongest defensive effort by allowing five points to the Bills last Sunday. Granted, Buffalo is down to backup quarterbacks, but the Colts’ defense has yielded only two touchdowns the past two games since giving up 38 points at New England.

The Raiders put up 45 points on Cleveland in Week 4, but Oakland has scored a combined 13 points the last two games. Also, the Raiders are losing offensive weapons by the week as running back Marshawn Lynch is sidelined due to injury and wide receiver Amari Cooper was dealt to the Cowboys. Oakland has been limited to 20 points or fewer in five of six games and it’s hard to think the Raiders will get the offense going this week.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Giants are a tough team to trust. However, Big Blue can be worth a look on Sunday as New York hosts Washington, who last won three consecutive games in 2016. The Redskins held off the Panthers two weeks ago, followed by a three-point victory over the Cowboys last Sunday. The Giants picked up a late cover in last Monday’s 23-20 setback at Atlanta, as New York has yet to cover consecutive games this season. New York has won four of the past five home matchups with Washington, while the Redskins put together their worst offensive performance in their lone favorite opportunity this season against the Colts in Week 2.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

In the most anticipated matchup of Week 8, the Saints return to Minnesota looking to avenge the divisional playoff loss to the Vikings last season. Minnesota opened up as a 1 ½-point home favorite at the Westgate Superbook, but that line has flipped late in the week. New Orleans is now favored as the Saints sit at -1 ½ at Westgate, while seeking their sixth consecutive win. When these teams met in the second round in January, Minnesota closed as five-point favorites and failed to cover in spite of the Stefon Diggs walk-off touchdown, 29-24.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Ravens are back in the road favorite role for the third straight time as they visit Carolina. The Panthers rallied from a 17-0 hole to shock the Eagles last Sunday as Carolina looks to improve on a 3-0 home record. Since 2014, the Panthers compiled a 5-2 ATS record as a home underdog, including outright victories over Atlanta and Minnesota last season.

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SuperContest Picks - Week 8
October 27, 2018
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7

Week 8

1) Green Bay +9.5 (1229)

2) Philadelphia -3 (957)

3) Washington PK (933)

4) Seattle +3 (889)

5) Chicago -7 (852)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 8 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Miami (+7.5) 191 Houston (-7.5) 148
Philadelphia (-3) 957 Jacksonville (+3) 294
Cleveland (+8) 424 Pittsburgh (-8) 494
Denver (+10) 488 Kansas City (-10) 454
N.Y. Jets (+7) 209 Chicago (-7) 852
Washington (PK) 933 N.Y. Giants (PK) 373
Seattle (+3) 889 Detroit (-3) 576
Tampa Bay (+4.5) 424 Cincinnati (-4.5) 709
Baltimore (-2) 606 Carolina (+2) 702
Indianapolis (-3) 844 Oakland (+3) 295
San Francisco (-1) 663 Arizona (+1) 306
Green Bay (+9.5) 1229 L.A. Rams (-9.5) 257
New Orleans (PK) 658 Minnesota (PK) 796
New England (-13.5) 578 Buffalo (+13.5) 166

Consensus Results - 2017 | 2016

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 0-5 4-6 40%
3 3-2 7-8 47%
4 3-2 10-10 50%
5 1-4 11-14 44%
6 1-4 12-18 40%
7 4-1 16-19 46%

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Public pounding underdog Packers' odds in NFL Week 8 clash vs. Rams
Patrick Everson

Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and the Packers face a huge road test Sunday against the unbeaten Rams. However, Green Bay money has lowered Los Angeles from 9.5-point favorites to -8.

NFL Week 8 has several intriguing matchups, and bettors are engaged on a few of those fronts. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for four games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas, and Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Vegas Strip.

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -8.5; Move: -9.5; Move: -9; Move: -9.5; Move: -9; Move: -9.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -8

Green Bay doesn’t have the perfect record, and in fact is only a tick above .500, but is getting plenty of support for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. The Packers (3-2-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 33-30 shootout home victory over San Francisco as a 9-point home favorite in Week 6.

Los Angeles is the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, sitting at 7-0 SU (4-3 ATS). The Rams are also coming off a win over San Francisco, though in much easier fashion, 39-10 as 8-point faves last week.

“The public is all over the underdog Packers in this game,” Murray said. “If the betting holds up, we will actually want to see the Rams cover as a big favorite.”

The Mirage and other MGM sportsbooks opened L.A. -9.5 and were down to -8 by Saturday morning.

“This one is kind of surprising, because we’re getting a lot of Packers money,” Shelton said. “There are twice as many Packers tickets as Rams tickets. I thought it would be the exact opposite.”


New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -1.5; Move: -1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: +1.5

New Orleans is looking to exact a little revenge, after the well-documented wild play that cost it a win in last season’s NFC divisional playoff round. The Saints (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) have won five in a row SU and four in a row ATS, edging Baltimore 24-23 as 2.5-point road underdogs last week when the Ravens missed an extra point off the upright.

Minnesota got out of the gate a bit bumpy at 1-2-1 SU through four weeks, but has since strung together three consecutive wins. The Vikings (4-2-1 SU and ATS) thumped the New York Jets 37-17 laying 3.5 points on the road last week.

“That game is a complete flip,” Shelton said, noting a large NFL bettor who’s hitting MGM books regularly this season is on New Orleans in this 8:20 p.m. ET start. “The big bettor is once again on the Saints. He’s got +1.5 and +1. Right now, we’re a six-figure loser on the Saints. But the ticket count is really close. I expect we’ll get some Vikings money (today).”


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -9; Move: -10; Move: -9.5

Kansas City looks to beat AFC West rival Denver for the second time this month, after opening October with a Monday night road win. The Chiefs (6-1 SU) have cashed every week this season, boatracing Cincinnati 45-10 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 7.

Denver had perhaps its best showing of the year in Week 7, albeit against a lackluster opponent. The Broncos (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) also won by a 45-10 count, giving 1 point at Arizona in the Thursday nighter.

“Sharp money on the Broncos at +10, but the public is all over the Chiefs, and we will need the Broncos big,” Murray said of this 1 p.m. ET contest.


Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders – Open: +1.5; Move: +1: Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5; Move: +3

Oakland seems intent to start planning for next season, after trading wideout Amari Cooper to Dallas in the past week. The Raiders (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 27-3 home loss to Seattle getting 3 points in Week 6.

Indianapolis isn’t much better at 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS), but bettors seem to think Andrew Luck and Co. are the play this week. The Colts enter this 4:05 p.m. ET matchup off a 37-5 blasting of Buffalo as 7-point home faves in Week 7.

“Everyone is on the Colts in this game,” Murray said. “The perception of the Raiders is that they are starting their rebuild this week. We will need Oakland.”

MGM books also opened Indy -1.5 and moved to -3 in short order.

“Our big bettor is on the Colts, pointspread and moneyline, and the public is all over the Colts too,” Shelton said. “That could get really ugly for us.”

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Essentials - Week 8
Tony Mejia

Sunday
Philadelphia (-4/44.5) at Jacksonville in London, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFLN: It’s premature to say seasons are on the line today, though it’s definitely fair to say that the loser of this one will be stuck in a 3-5 nightmare at the season’s halfway point. Even though they’re in divisions that no other team is running away with, there will be little room for error for whatever team is traveling back to the States having packed that ‘L.’ Jags QB Blake Bortles has been impressive in London, coming in with a 3-0 record in games played overseas, but he’s turned the ball over 11 times in the last three games and was benched in favor of backup Cody Kessler in last week’s loss to Houston.

Counterpart Carson Wentz is coming off a rocky performance in last week’s loss to Carolina, which saw the Eagles blow a 17-0 lead in finishing with their lowest scoring total of the season. With defensive regulars Corey Graham and Sidney Jones missing from the secondary, Wentz will have to pick up his level of play in taking advantage of the Jaguars’ issues in the defensive backfield. They have had just one sack in the last three games.

Jacksonville’s Jalen Ramsey got into a war of words with Kansas City Tyreek Hill, ran more than he ever has in a football game trying to cover and stay with him in a 30-14 loss at Arrowhead and then hasn’t been the same since in losses to Dallas and Houston, physically looking less formidable. He’s been playing through an ankle injury that has been a major issue that could be magnified here since so much of the Jags’ secondary is injured. A.J. Bouye (calf), D.J. Hayden (toe) and Tyler Patmon (neck) have been ruled out and a defense that has surrendered 30 points per game during their losing streak is counting on Tre Herndon (hamstring) stepping up to help cover an Eagles receiving corps led by a now healthy Alshon Jeffery. Barry Church, Ronnie Harrison, Jarrod Wilson and the injured Hayden were detained for nine hours by British authorities over a bar tab and a fight with bouncers at 4 a.m. Showers are expected in the London area, but shouldn’t hang around long enough to play a large role at Wembley. RB Carlos Hyde will debut for the Jags alongside T.J. Yeldon in attempting to replace Leonard Fournette, who is still out with a hamstring issue.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-8.5/48), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Week 1 meeting was played in wet conditions and went to overtime, producing a tie after multiple missed field goals in regulation and the OT. Tyrod Taylor started that opener for Cleveland, which has since moved on in the kicking department too. All but one of the Browns’ games have been decided by more than four points and they’ve played four extra sessions, so if nothing else, the team trying to rise up from doormat status has proven to be competitive. Pittsburgh has had more time to prepare for Cleveland, who it should know well since it studied its personnel all preseason in preparation for Week 1 and have now had an extra week to examine.

The Browns lead the NFL with 20 takeaways and 31 sacks but still rank 28th in total defense since Gregg Williams relies so heavily on the blitz, which creates opportunities for big plays. The Steelers are second in the NFL in sacks with 22, which could pose problems for Baker Mayfield, who can be accused of holding the ball too long in the infancy of his pro career. This will be his first look at the Pittsburgh defense. The Browns have covered the last three meetings but will be looking to snap a 24-game road losing streak despite coming in 3-0 ATS this season, covering in three separate three-point OT losses. The week off allowed Steelers safety Morgan Burnett to get healthy so he’ll be back today, but tackle Marcus Gilbert (knee) won’t play. RB Le’Veon Bell remains away. The second half of this game may be affected by weather with heavy rain and winds in the forecast.

Denver at Kansas City (-9.5/53), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Broncos QB Case Keenum missed on what would’ve been a touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter of a 27-23 loss to the Chiefs at home on Oct. 1 that would’ve handed them a loss that would have made the AFC West race much closer than it currently is. The Broncos have been difficult to figure out but have been extremely competitive against the NFL’s top teams, losing one-possession games against the Chiefs and Rams. They also come off a 45-10 rout of Arizona in Week 7’s Thursday night game so they’ll be well-rested for this one and know what to expect from Kansas City, which will put its perfect record against the spread on the line but need a double-digit win to extend it to 8-0.

Chiefs LB Justin Houston, one of the NFL’s top pass-rushers, is dealing with an hamstring injury and will again be absent. Center Mitch Morse and safety Eric Berry will miss another contest but weren’t missed at all in last week’s rout of Cincinnati. The Broncos were only able to sack Mahomes once in their Oct. 1 defeat at home against the Chiefs, so it’s great news that Von Miller will be able to play through an ankle injury that had his status in question earlier in the week. Corner Adam Jones (thigh) and safety Dymonte Thomas should play, but LB Shane Ray and safety Darian Stewart are out again. With perfect weather expected outside of some mild wind gusts, we should be able to see whether Kansas City’s offense can be slowed down the second time around. The Chiefs are perfect in their last eight divisional home games, while the Broncos have won only one of their last six AFC road games (1-5 ATS).

Baltimore (-2.5/44) at Carolina, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Panthers QB Cam Newton has been dealing with an injured shoulder but was never going to sit this one out, relishing the challenge of squaring off against such a respected, effective defense. Baltimore hadn’t surrendered a second-half touchdown before being caught from behind last weekend by Drew Brees and the Saints. The Ravens have surrendered just 8.0 points per game in victories and are first in the NFL in points allowed (14.4).

Joe Flacco will look to become the fourth passer in five games to throw for over 300 yards against the Panthers defense, which has clamped down against the run but has been middle-of-the road against aerial attacks, giving up 260.3 passing yards (17th) and 11 TD passes (15th)

Indianapolis (-3/51) at Oakland, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: The Raiders traded Amari Cooper to Dallas and will likely deal a few more pieces before the trade deadline as the pre-Vegas fire sale continues. Jon Gruden audibled to a complete rebuild pretty quickly after the franchise’s financial woes contributed to moving on from Khalil Mack. That can’t be lost on the team’s veterans. While we should see plenty of guys engaged and ready to play coming off a bye week following an embarrassing loss in London, there will be some who will remain stuck in ‘off’ mode.

Marshawn Lynch was placed on IR with a groin injury, so he won’t be a factor going forward. Doug Martin and Jalen Richard will handle backfield duties while Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant will be Derek Carr’s top receiving targets alongside tight end Jared Cook. There are enough playmakers to do damage with if Carr gets time and finds a rhythm, so even the trading of a former No. 4 pick and reports of a “fractured” locker room can’t be considered deal breakers for a 1-5 football team if the offensive line holds up. Centers Rodney Hudson and Jon Feliciano, guards Gabe Jackson and Denver Kirkland, and tackle Kolton Miller were all limited in practice this week, which is bad news considering the team will be back in action on Thursday night for a Bay area battle with the 49ers. Indianapolis has gotten healthier with RB Marlon Mack and TE Jack Doyle upgrading the offensive talent with their return, but there are issues in the secondary with Malik Hooker (hip) and Clayton Geathers (concussion) questionable. If neither plays, Indy will be quite vulnerable. The Colts are 1-3 in outdoor road games this season.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at DET 01:00 PM
DET -3.0
U 48.5

CLE at PIT 01:00 PM
PIT -8.5
O 48.0

NYJ at CHI 01:00 PM
NYJ +8.5
U 42.0

TB at CIN 01:00 PM
TB +3.5
O 54.5

BAL at CAR 01:00 PM
BAL -2.5
O 44.0

WAS at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG +1.0
U 44.0

DEN at KC 01:00 PM
KC -8.5

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IND at OAK 04:05 PM
IND -3.0
O 51.0

GB at LAR 04:25 PM
LAR -7.5
U 57.0

SF at ARI 04:25 PM
SF -2.0
O 41.0

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

NO at MIN 08:20 PM

NO -2.5

O 53.5

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 8
October 28, 2018
By The Associated Press

Monday, Oct. 29

New England at Buffalo, 8:15 p.m. The Patriots are 31-4 in their past 35 matchups against the Bills, and Tom Brady holds the NFL career wins record by a quarterback against one opponent at 28-3. With 575 TD throws in the regular season and playoffs, Brady is four short of matching the NFL record held by Peyton Manning. Veteran Derek Anderson will start his second straight game for Buffalo, which is 0-7 against New England in night games.

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STARS

Passing

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, passed for 303 yards for his franchise-record seventh consecutive 300-yard performance and had four touchdowns to lift Kansas City to a 30-23 victory Denver.

- Carson Wentz, Eagles, threw three touchdown passes in Philadelphia's 24-18 win over Jacksonville at Wembley Stadium.

- Russell Wilson, Seahawks, went 14 of 17 for 248 yards and three touchdowns, leading to a perfect quarterback rating in Seattle's 28-14 win at Detroit.

- Cam Newton, Panthers, completed 21 of 29 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 52 yards and another score against the NFL's No. 1-ranked defense in a 36-21 victory over Baltimore.

- Andrew Luck, Colts, threw three touchdown passes in Indianapolis' 42-28 win at Oakland.

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Rushing

- Adrian Peterson, Redskins, had a season-high 149 yards rushing, including a 64-yard TD, on 26 carries and caught a 7-yard touchdown pass in Washington's 20-13 victory over the Giants.

- James Conner, Steelers, ran for 146 yards and a touchdown in Pittsburgh's 33-18 win over Cleveland.

- Marlon Mack, Colts, had a career-high 132 yards rushing and two TDs on 25 attempts as Indianapolis beat Oakland 42-28.

- Joe Mixon, Bengals, rushed for 123 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries to help Cincinnati top Tampa Bay 37-34.

- Todd Gurley, Rams, ran for 114 yards and caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown, reaching the end zone for a franchise record-tying 11th straight game as Los Angeles edged Green Bay 29-27.

- Chris Carson, Seahawks, had 105 yards rushing and a TD in Seattle's 28-14 win at Detroit.

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Receiving

- Tyler Boyd, Bengals, caught nine passes for 138 yards and a touchdown to help Cincinnati defeat Tampa Bay 37-34.

- Sammy Watkins, Chiefs, had eight catches for 107 yards and two touchdowns in Kansas City's 30-23 victory over Denver.

- Marvin Jones, Lions, had seven receptions for 117 yards and two TDs in Detroit's 28-14 loss to Seattle.

- Mike Evans, Buccaneers, had 179 yards receiving and a touchdown on six catches in a losing cause as Tampa Bay fell 37-34 at Cincinnati.

- Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, caught eight passes for 102 yards and a TD to help Arizona edge San Francisco 18-15.

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Special Teams

- Adam Vinatieri, Colts, set the NFL's career scoring record with two field goals and four extra points in Indianapolis' 42-28 victory at Oakland.

- Randy Bullock, Bengals, kicked a 44-yard field goal on the final play to lift Cincinnati over Tampa Bay 37-34.

- Graham Gano, Panthers, had field goals of 54, 44 and 30 yards in Carolina's 36-21 win against Baltimore.

- Josh Lambo, Jaguars, booted four field goals, including a career-best 57-yarder, in Jacksonville's 24-18 loss to Philadelphia in London.

- Greg Zuerlein and Ramik Wilson, Rams. Zuerlein hit a 34-yard field goal with 2:05 left and Wilson forced and recovered Ty Montgomery's fumble on the ensuing kickoff return in Los Angeles' 29-27 victory over Green Bay.

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Defense

- Jessie Bates, Bengals, returned Jameis Winston's fourth interception for a touchdown to help Cincinnati top Tampa Bay 37-34.

- Dee Ford, Chiefs, had three sacks and two forced fumbles in Kansas City's 30-23 victory over Denver.

- D.J. Swearinger and Matt Ioannidis, Redskins. Swearinger intercepted two passes in Washington's 20-13 win over the Giants, and Ioannidis had 2+ sacks.

- Jason Pierre-Paul, Buccaneers, had two sacks in Tampa Bay's 37-34 loss at Cincinnati to give him at least one in six straight games, tied for the longest streak in franchise history.

- P.J. Williams, Saints, returned an interception 45 yards for a TD to help fuel New Orleans' 30-20 victory at Minnesota.

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MILESTONES

Indianapolis' Adam Vinatieri set the record as the NFL's top all-time scorer in the first half of the Colts' 42-28 win at Oakland. He kicked a 26-yard field goal in the first quarter to tie Morten Andersen with 2,544 points and then added a 25-yarder late in the second to set the record. Vinatieri scored three more points, giving him 2,550 for his career. ... Ben Roethlisberger's second TD pass to Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh's 33-18 win over Cleveland moved him past Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton (342) on the career list. Eli Manning (346) is seventh. Peyton Manning holds the record with 539 TD passes. Roethlisberger and Brown have combined for 67 TDs, tied for seventh-most in league history. Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne also had 67 scores. ... Kansas City's 30-23 win over Denver gave coach Andy Reid his 201st victory, tying Dan Reeves for eighth-most in NFL history. ... Tampa Bay's DeSean Jackson caught a 60-yard touchdown pass in a 37-34 loss at Cincinnati, moving him ahead of Jerry Rice for the NFL record. He has 24 TDs of at least 60 yards. It also was Jackson's 29th career TD of at least 50 yards, tying Randy Moss for second-most since the 1970 merger behind Rice's 36. ... Larry Fitzgerald's 112th career touchdown catch, coming in Arizona's 18-15 win over San Francisco, moved him past Tony Gonzalez alone into seventh on the NFL career list. ... Minnesota's Adam Thielen had 103 yards receiving and a touchdown in the Vikings' 30-20 loss to New Orleans, tying Calvin Johnson's all-time NFL record of eight straight 100-yard receiving games, set in 2012 with Detroit. He also matched Patrick Jeffers with a fifth consecutive game with 100-plus yards and at least one touchdown, a mark set in 1999 for Carolina.

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STREAKS & STATS

Cleveland has lost 25 consecutive road games, one shy of the NFL record held by the Detroit Lions (2007-10). ... Carolina's Graham Gano extended his streak to 39 consecutive field goals made at home - and 28 straight overall - after connecting from 54, 44 and 30 yards in the Panthers' 36-21 win over Baltimore. ... Kansas City failed to score on its initial drive for the first time all season, but went on to beat Denver 30-23. ... Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker had a streak of 61 consecutive PATs snapped in the first half of Kansas City's win. ... Tampa Bay's Jason Pierre-Paul had a pair of sacks in the Buccaneers' 37-34 loss at Cincinnati, giving him at least one in six straight games to tie Simeon Rice for the most consecutive games with a sack in team history. ... Oakland's Derek Carr scored on a 1-yard sneak on fourth down in the third quarter of a 42-28 loss to Indianapolis. It was his first career touchdown run, and Oakland hadn't had a quarterback run for a TD since Terrelle Pryor scored on a 93-yard run against Pittsburgh on Oct. 27, 2013. Only the Chargers had gone longer without a TD run for a QB.

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STARTS

The Los Angeles Rams remained the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 8-0 with a 29-27 win against Green Bay to extend their best start to a season since 1969. ... Washington defeated the New York Giants 20-13 to improve to 5-2, its best start since 2008.

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SOMBER DAY

The Steelers overcame a slow start and their own mistakes to win their 15th straight at Heinz Field over the Cleveland Browns, 33-18 on Sunday. The victory delivered a few hours of comfort to Pittsburgh's fans and Western Pennsylvania still in shock a day after a gunman stormed into the Tree of Life Synagogue and killed 11 people. A moment of silence was observed before the game and several signs with the Steelers' helmet logo - inlaid with a Star of David - were displayed by fans. The shooting was felt by all Pittsburghers, and was close to the Steelers. Michele Rosenthal, the team's former community relations manager, had two brothers, Cecil and David, killed in the attack.

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STILL GOING STRONG

Washington's Adrian Peterson had 149 yards rushing and two touchdowns - one rushing, one receiving - in the Redskins' 20-13 win against the New York Giants. At 33 years and 221 days old, Peterson is the oldest player in NFL history to record at least 100 yards rushing and both a rushing and receiving touchdown in a single game. With a 64-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, Peterson joined Steve Bono (76 yards, 1995), Rocky Bleier (70, 1979) and Jim Thorpe (80, 1921) as the only players to run for a TD run of at least 60 yards at 33 or older. He's also the fourth player with at least 140 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in a single game at 33 or older, joining John Henry Johnson (200 yards, three TDs, 1964), John Riggins (140, one TD, 1984) and DeAngelo Williams (143, two TDs, 2016).

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IN THE CARDS

Arizona's Josh Rosen threw a 9-yard touchdown pass to fellow rookie Christian Kirk with 34 seconds to play to rally the Cardinals to an 18-15 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in a matchup of teams with two of the worst records in the NFL. The Cardinals (2-6) beat the 49ers (1-7) for the eighth straight time and second time in three weeks. Arizona got two fourth-quarter touchdown passes from Rosen after the 49ers had built a 15-3 lead. Rosen's 13-yard pass to Larry Fitzgerald cut the lead to 15-10 with 11:06 to play. Fitzgerald also caught a 2-point conversion pass after Kirk's TD.

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LAST IN LONDON

Philadelphia's 24-18 win over Jacksonville, played before a record, pro-Eagles crowd of 85,870 fans, was the last of three played at Wembley this season. The Jaguars, who have played at the venue since 2013, have a contract to hold one game there annually through the 2020 season.

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SLINGIN' IT

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes became the fourth player in NFL history to throw at least four touchdown passes in three consecutive games, joining New Orleans' Drew Brees (three straight in 2011), Indianapolis' Peyton Manning (five, 2004) and Miami's Dan Marino (four, 1984). Mahomes also joined Indianapolis' Andrew Luck (eight straight in 2014) and Brees (seven, 2011) as the only player with seven consecutive games with at least 300 passing yards in a single season.

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SEATTLE SURPRISE

To seal Seattle's 28-14 victory at Detroit, punter Michael Dickson ran out of his end zone and gained 9 yards on a fourth-and-8 from the Seattle 3 on a play that was designed for him to take a safety. ''He went against all traditions and everything, but he saw the situation and he took advantage of it,'' coach Pete Carroll said. ''It was truly a surprise.''

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WINSTON'S WAYWARD THROWS

Jameis Winston was benched in Tampa Bay's 37-34 loss at Cincinnati after matching his career high with four interceptions, the third time he's thrown so many in his career. He has thrown 10 interceptions, one fewer than all last season. ''I'm definitely the reason we came up short with this game, and I know that I have to fix it,'' said Winston, who was 18 of 35 for 276 yards with five sacks. Winston went to the bench, and Ryan Fitzpatrick pulled Tampa Bay even with a 72-yard touchdown to Mike Evans , his fifth TD pass of at least 50 yards this season - most in the NFL, and an 18-yard TD to O.J. Howard and completing another pass for the conversion with 1:05 left. Winston has thrown at least two interceptions in five straight games, tied for the most since 1990. His 13 interceptions over that span are tied with Fitzpatrick for the most in a five-game stretch over the past five seasons.

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SHIELDS SHINES

Sam Shields made several big plays for the Los Angeles Rams against his former team. The veteran defensive back caught a pass from Johnny Hekker on a fake punt, and he later downed a punt at the Green Bay 1 to set up the Rams' defense for its safety in a 29-27 win. Shields played seven seasons with the Packers before his fourth concussion in 2016 nearly ended his career, but he returned to the NFL with the Rams this season.

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SHOWING SUPPORT

Demonstrators gathered outside the Panthers' stadium in support of Carolina safety Eric Reid and his protest against social and racial injustice. The organization, known as Serve The People-Charlotte, held signs and chanted on a sidewalk near the stadium before the game against the visiting Ravens, then gathered at a nearby street to take a knee just before kickoff. About 50 people participated in the protest outside the stadium, while Reid was taking a knee on the Carolina sideline inside during the national anthem.

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SIDELINED

Philadelphia offensive tackle Lane Johnson injured his left knee on the Eagles' opening drive and did not return to the team's 24-18 win over the Jaguars in London on Sunday. Cornerback Jalen Mills injured his foot a minute into the third quarter and missed the rest of the game. ... Kansas City wide receiver Tyreek Hill appeared to tweak his groin on a long catch early in the game and he left late in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs' 30-23 win over Denver. ... Chicago guard Kyle Long had to be helped off the field in the closing minutes with an injured right foot, putting a damper on a 24-10 victory over the New York Jets. ... Bengals guard Clint Boling hurt his back late in the first half and defensive end Carl Lawson hurt his right knee in Cincinnati's 37-34 win over Tampa Bay. Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones II suffered a hamstring injury in the second half. ... The 49ers lost two important defensive players in their 18-15 loss to the Cardinals: Linebacker Reuben Foster left early with a hamstring injury and safety Jaquiski Tartt was knocked out with a shoulder injury. ... Washington offensive tackle Trent Williams left the Redskins' 20-13 win over the New York Giants with a dislocated thumb.

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SPEAKING

''We're thankful for a victory, but we also understand that there are bigger things. There's life. I'm glad that we could give people maybe three hours of a break of maybe not thinking about it all the time, and that's what sports does sometimes is it helps you to kind of heal. But it's over and people are going to celebrate and enjoy this, but reality still sets in for a lot of people.'' - Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger after a 33-18 win over the Cleveland Browns brought temporary comfort to Pittsburgh's fans and Western Pennsylvania still in shock a day after a gunman stormed into the Tree of Life Synagogue and killed 11 people.

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''I had a heavy heart today. My oldest son Devin didn't want to come to the game today. My feelings were a little hurt. So I was carrying that around all day so when I got in there (the end zone), I kind of let it out. So all the kids that are watching, I'm sorry, I set a bad example today.'' - Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald on spiking the football after his 2-point conversion in the Cardinals' 18-15 win over San Francisco. His son went to a state fair instead of his game.

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''When we're clicking and spreading the ball around, we're really tough to stop.'' - Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes after he had a franchise-record seventh consecutive 300-yard performance in the Chiefs' 30-23 victory over Denver.

[StarDust Bum]

Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/28/2018 12-9-0 57.14% +10.50
10/25/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/22/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/21/2018 9-9-0 50.00% -4.50
10/18/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/15/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/14/2018 15-9-1 62.50% +25.50
10/11/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/08/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/07/2018 14-10-0 58.33% +15.00
10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total............60-43-1.........58.25%.....+63.50

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Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/28/2018..............3 - 5.................-12.50...................5 - 2...............+24.00.............+11.50
10/25/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00...............+10.00
10/22/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0...............+5.00................-0.50
10/21/2018..............4 - 4..................-2.00....................4 - 4................-2.00................-4.00
10/18/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................0 - 1................-5.50................-0.50
10/15/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................-5.50................-0.50
10/14/2018..............5 - 4.................+3.00....................4 - 6................-13.00..............-10.00
10/11/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
10/08/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
10/07/2018..............4 - 5..................-7.50....................6 - 4................+8.00...............+0.50
10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals...................20 - 21..................-10.50.................25 - 20...............+25.50.............+15.00

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 8 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Packers, +9.5 (1,229)- W
2) Eagles, -3 (957)- W
3) Redskins, even (933)- W
4) Seaahawks, +3 (889)- W
5) Bears, -7 (852)- W
6) Colts, -3 (844)- W

Season record: 25-20-3 (big week for popular opinion)

Tweet of the Day
“There’s a fiery competitor that’s the head coach side, but there’s an extremely normal, next-door neighbor side. I don’t know anyone who doesn’t like Jeff Brohm. He’s the kind of guy that everyone likes.”
Todd Stewart, Western Kentucky’s athletic director

Saturday’s quiz
Before this year, who was the Red Sox’ manager the last time they won a World Series?

Sunday’s quiz
Tennessee Volunteers play their home football games in Neyland Stadium.

Saturday’s quiz
Utah is known as the Beehive State.

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Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Eagles 24, Jaguars 18— 4th straight loss for Jaguars, who had four players involved late Friday night in an incident in a London club- something about an unpaid $45,000 bar tab. Yikes.

Jaguars have on-field problems, too; they’ve scored only five TD’s on their last 42 drives.

Eagles lost T Lane Johnson with a torn MCL; the severity of the injury is still unclear.

Have I mentioned how much I dislike 9:30am kickoffs for these London games?

Steelers 33, Browns 18— Forbes Magazine lists the Browns as worth $1.95B; if you owned a ball club worth roughly $2B, and the coach of that team was 3-36-1 in 2.5 years of coaching that team, would he still have a job? He sure as hell wouldn’t if I owned the team.

Seems like Cleveland has a good GM, decent talent on defense, a young QB it can build around, but do they have a head coach who can do the building? Browns have lost 25 straight road games; they’re 8-18-1 AGAINST THE SPREAD in last 26 road games. No bueno.

Steelers are heating up; they’ve scored 41-38-33 points in winning their last three games.

Chiefs 30, Broncos 23— Before the season, Patrick Mahomes’ over/under for TD passes this season was 23.5; he threw his 24th TD pass in the first half of this game, his 8th this year, so if you bet the under, you can toss your ticket.

Broncos lost five of last six games overall; they’ve lost seven in a row vs the Chiefs; they haven’t had consecutive losing seasons since the early 70’s, but they’re 3-5 now and under Joseph, the Broncos are 2-9 vs spread in true road games, 1-6 as road underdogs, which shows that they’re not competitive on the road.

Bears 24, Jets 10— Jets scored 34+ points in their three wins, 17 or fewer in five losses; they went 3/out 29-60 (48.3%) times in their losses, 9-35 (25.7%) times in their wins- they went 3/out six times in 10 drives in this game.

Yardage was 395-207 Bears, who held Gang Green to 12 first downs, 3-14 on third down. Even though this was a methodical Chicago win, seems like something is lacking with young QB Trubisky, who isn’t as accurate a passer as you might like.

Redskins 20, Giants 13— For a team with Saquon Barkley to have a total of only 14 rushes for 37 yards, that not good; Barkley caught nine passes for 73 yards, Beckham caught eight balls for 136 yards but a 1-7 team with two guys like Barkley/Beckham is unthinkable.

In their five wins, Redskins ran for 130+ yards in all five games; they were held to 65-39 in their losses. Considering that the Giants traded off two defensive starters LW, including run-stopping Harrison, you had to figure Redskins would have their way running the ball.

Seahawks 28, Lions 14— Seattle has quietly won four of its last five games after an 0-2 start; they were punting from their own EZ with about 2:30 left- punter Dickson was told to take an intentional safety, but when he saw that Detroit had no defenders on the right side, he took matters into his own hands and ran for a first down instead- game over.

Seahawks ran ball for 176 yards, averaged 12.5 yards/pass attempt on only 17 throws and they were +3 in turnovers. That combination of numbers doesn’t lose very often.

Bengals 37, Buccaneers 34— Cincinnati led 21-0 early, 34-16 after 3rd quarter, but found itself tied 34-all after Bucs benched QB Winston and backup Fitzpatrick rallied Tampa on 78, 88-yard TD drives. Bucs gained a franchise-record 576 yards, but still lost and now they probably have to bench their franchise QB, who was also suspended for Weeks 1-3 this season.

Tampa Bay fired DC Mike Smith couple weeks ago, so they can’t blame him for this mess, which was 27-9 at halftime. Bucs allowed an average of 39.8 ppg in their four road games- they’re 3-6-1 in last ten games as road underdogs. This is a team with talent but a messed-up QB situation; will Dirk Koetter get to clean it up?

The two head coaches in this game both went to college at Idaho State; Marvin Lewis worked for Koetter’s dad for a while when he was at ISU. Small world.

Panthers 36, Ravens 21— There is a reason that when Troy Aikman got inducted into the Hall of Fame, the guy who introduced him was Norv Turner; he’s that good an offensive coordinator, and now Cam Newton is benefitting from Turner’s expertise.

Carolina won four of its last five games; they’re 4-0 at home- they’re 17-8-1 in last 26 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Ron Rivera is a very good coach.

Ravens are 0-3 when they allow more than 14 points.

Colts 42, Raiders 28— Oakland lost its last four games; in their six losses, they were outscored 112-41 in 2nd half- just like the Giants, when you trade off starters for draft picks, it sends the message that the coaches/front office quit on this season.

In their last three games, Raiders allowed opponents to convert 25-39 third down plays; they lost field position by 14-22-10 yards in those games.

Colts scored 34-37-42 points in their last three games; Andrew Luck looks sharp.

Cardinals 18, 49ers 15— Niners led 15-3 with 12:00 left, but Rosen led TD drives of 62-78 yards as Arizona scored winning TD with 0:34 left. Cardinals have two wins this season, both against the 49ers. In its last three games, Arizona lost field position by 11-14-10 yards.

This was Arizona’s 8th win in a row against the 49ers, who didn’t turn the ball over here after being -12 in turnovers their previous three games.

Rams 29, Packers 27—
— How in God’s name did the 49ers score 30 against Green Bay?
— Packers were very aggressive with blitzes and disrupted the Rams’ offense; LA didn’t score a TD on its first five drives (29 plays, 89 yards)- that doesn’t happen much.
— Rams were 8-18 on third down, Green Bay only 2-8.
— It is zero fun rooting against Aaron Rodgers for 3.5 hours.
— Rams took a 29-27 in last minute, but when they kicked off, the Packers’ returner ran the ball out of the EZ and fumbled when he was hit, depriving Rodgers of a chance for a last drive.
— That is on the Green Bay coaches; Rodgers has to get a chance to win the game.
— This game ended with Todd Gurley refusing to score a TD to make the score 36-27 in the last minute; he simply took a knee once he had the first down, and that was that. it affected both the point spread and the total, not to mention a ton of fantasy leagues. Oh well.

Saints 30, Vikings 20— Minnesota led 13-10 in last 2:00 before halftime, and had ball in red zone, but they fumbled and Saints scored TD before the half- they pulled away in second half, scoring four of last six times they had the ball.

NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978; since then, Vikings have NEVER had the same QB start all 16 games in consecutive seasons- thats hard to believe.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Patriots at Bills
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Patriots (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) are back in control of the AFC East after holding off the Bears, 38-31. New England was able to score a pair of non-offensive touchdowns as Cordarrelle Patterson returned a kickoff 95 yards for a score and Kyle Van Noy picked up a blocked punt and brought it back for the tie-breaking touchdown in the third.

Tom Brady did his thing for the Patriots for throwing three touchdown passes, the fourth time this season the future Hall-of-Famer has posted a trio of touchdown tosses. Running back James White hauled in a pair of touchdowns from Brady, while recently acquired Josh Gordon picked up his first 100-yard game since joining New England in Week 4. Tight end Rob Gronkowski missed the victory with a back injury but is expected to suit up on Monday.

The Bills (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) have been an utter disaster at times this season, as Buffalo seemed to be moving in the right direction with rookie quarterback Josh Allen. However, the former Wyoming standout suffered an elbow injury in a 20-13 loss at Houston in Week 7. So Buffalo had to turn to journeyman quarterback Derek Anderson against Indianapolis, who was intercepted three times in a 37-5 drubbing to the Colts.

Running back LeSean McCoy left early after only two carries for one yard due to a head injury, but should play on Monday. Since scoring 27 points in a rout of Minnesota in Week 3, the Bills have scored a total of 31 points in the last four games, while ranking last in the NFL with 81 points on the season.

UNDER THUNDER

Due to Buffalo’s lack of offense, the Bills are turning into a solid team to back on the UNDER on a weekly basis. The Bills are currently on a five-game UNDER streak as none of those contests have closed with a total of higher than 43 ½, while not busting the 13-point mark in each of the past four weeks.

The last OVER for the Bills cashed in Week 2 at home against the Chargers in a 31-20 loss on a 41 ½ total. Monday’s total will be the highest for the Bills this season at 44 ½, while this is the lowest total for New England since Week 2 against Jacksonville (also 44 ½).

PATS GOING TO PAT

Although New England is currently on a three-game OVER streak, the Patriots have lit up the scoreboard since a 1-2 start. After getting blasted at Detroit in Week 3, the Patriots have scored 38, 38, 43, and 38 points the past four weeks. To put this scoring run in perspective, New England never scored 38 points or more in four consecutive games back in their undefeated regular season run of 2007, a year that they finished with the second-most points in a season in NFL history with 589.

SERIES HISTORY

Since getting shut out at Buffalo in the 2003 season opener, the Patriots have won 13 of the past 14 matchups at New Era Field. Buffalo’s last home win against New England came in 2011 as a seven-point underdog, 34-31. Since that upset, the margin of victory for the Patriots in western New York has been 24, 2, 15, 8, 16, and 20. Last season, the Pats blasted the Bills as 7 ½-point road favorites, 23-3.

The Bills have dropped five of the past six meetings overall with the Patriots since 2015 as the lone victory came in 2016 at Gillette Stadium, 16-0*. Yes, there is an asterisk next to that score as Brady was serving the final game of his Deflategate suspension. In the next meeting in Buffalo, the Patriots ripped the Bills, 41-25 behind four touchdown passes from Brady.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Patriots have appeared on Monday Night Football once in each of the past five seasons, compiling a 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark. All three losses have come on the road at Miami (2017), Kansas City (2014), and Carolina (2013), as New England’s last Monday night away victory came in the 2011 opener at Miami.

New England and Buffalo last met on a Monday night at Gillette Stadium in 2015 as the Patriots held off the Bills, 20-13 as seven-point favorites. The Bills are 0-5 on Mondays since 2007, but Buffalo has compiled a 2-1-1 ATS mark as an underdog, while hosting a Monday game for the first time since 2008 against Cleveland.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Expert Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on this AFC East matchup. As mentioned earlier, the Bills’ offense has continued to struggle, but Nelson notes that Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been too bad, “Buffalo has held four of the last five opponents to 22 or fewer points as the defense has been capable. Buffalo is third in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed surrendering only 6.7 yards per attempt to only trail Baltimore and Jacksonville in that category. Buffalo has allowed 13 passing touchdowns, but has 19 sacks and five interceptions. Buffalo’s offense has given away 16 turnovers however including a league-high 12 interceptions from a trio of marginal quarterbacks.”

The Bills are a heavy underdog as expected, but Buffalo has history on its side according to Nelson, “Since 2007, NFL home underdogs of 10 or more points are 40-20 ATS including going 4-0 ATS (and 2-2 SU) last season. The past six NFL home underdogs of 14 or more points have all covered as well going back to November of 2009. The Patriots have been a double-digit road favorite 11 times under Belichick going 5-6 ATS including losing SU twice in the past four attempts since 2016, both times in Miami.”

LINE MOVEMENT

The Patriots opened up as 14-point road favorites at the Westgate Superbook last week. There hasn’t been much movement on the side as the Westgate has New England at -13 ½, while many books have kept the Pats at -14. The total has also been steady at 44 ½, the lowest between these teams with Brady starting since 2015, won by the Patriots, 40-32 in Buffalo.

[StarDust Bum]

Early bettors hit Patriots' odds, but line stable for NFL Week 9 battle vs. Packers
Patrick Everson

Josh Gordon, Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots still have their Week 8 game Monday night at Buffalo. But New England was installed as a 6.5-point home favorite vs. Green Bay in Week 9.

Week 9 of the NFL season features a battle between two of the best quarterbacks ever to play. We check in on the opening lines and early action for that clash and three other contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Green Bay gave the undefeated Los Angeles Rams all they could handle, but came up just short in a big Week 8 matchup. The Packers (3-3-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) led 27-26, gave up a field goal with 2:05 remaining, then fumbled the ensuing kickoff in a 29-27 loss as 7.5-point road underdogs.

New England still has Week 8 work to do, playing at Buffalo in the Monday nighter. The Patriots (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) have won four in a row, cashing three times, including in a 38-31 Week 7 victory at Chicago as 1-point road favorites.

“We took some bets on the Patriots, but left the number at -6.5 so far,” Murray said of next week’s Sunday night game. “The public will be all over Aaron Rodgers as a ‘dog again.”

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (+1)

Los Angeles took a few punches in Week 8, but escaped with its perfect record still intact. The Rams (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) got a late field goal to pull ahead of Green Bay, then forced a fumble on the kickoff and ran out the clock for a 29-27 victory laying 7.5 points at home.

New Orleans lost in Week 1, but hasn’t been beaten since, grabbing six consecutive SU wins while cashing in its last five games. The Saints (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) went to Minnesota as 2.5-point faves and emerged with a 30-20 Week 8 victory.

“We opened this game Rams -1 and immediately saw money come in on L.A. and push the line to -2.5,” Murray said. “The Rams finally looked beatable, and now they have arguably their toughest game of the year on the road at the Saints.”

Per The SuperBook’s policy, the line on Rams-Saints was only on the board until kickoff of the Saints-Vikings game. It will be reposted Monday morning.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Pittsburgh might just be putting things together, despite the continued holdout of stud running back Le’Veon Bell. The Steelers (4-2-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) have won and cashed four of their last five, including a 33-18 victory over Cleveland giving 8.5 points at home in Week 8.

On the flip side, Baltimore has lost three of its last four SU and ATS while dropping back to .500. The Ravens (4-4 SU and ATS) tumbled to Carolina 36-21 as 2.5-point road pups in Week 8.

These AFC North rivals met in Week 4, with Baltimore nabbing a 26-14 victory as a 3-point ‘dog at Pittsburgh.

“We took a couple bets on the Steelers +3 right when we opened the game, but so far, we haven’t moved the number,” Murray said. “This is a must-win game for Baltimore, after losses to the Saints and Panthers, and we expect the Ravens to respond accordingly.”
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (Pick)

Houston is one of the hotter teams going right now, with five straight victories after an 0-3 start. The Texans (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) kept rolling in the Week 8 Thursday nighter, pounding Miami 42-23 as 7.5-point home favorites.

Denver won its first two games, but has just one victory since then. In Week 8, the Broncos (3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) couldn’t keep up with high-powered Kansas City, although they did cash as 8.5-point road underdogs in a 30-23 setback.

“Not much action on this game,” Murray said. “I do expect the public to heavily back the Texans, who are on a five-game winning streak and will have three extra days to prepare for this game.”

That said, the Broncos actually moved to -2.5 later Sunday night at The SuperBook, but it was a market-driven move, as there were no significant bets on the game.