Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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LATE GAMES:

SEA at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI +3.5
O 40.0

CLE at OAK
CLE +2.5
U 44.5

NO at NYG 04:25 PM
NO -3.5
U 51.5

SF at LAC 04:25 PM
SF +10.5
O 46.0

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NFL Today, Week 4
September 30, 2018
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Oct. 1

Kansas City at Denver, 8:15 p.m. The Chiefs have won five straight in the series following seven straight losses. Patrick Mahomes has an NFL-record 13 TDs through three games and zero interceptions, and will go up against a Broncos defense that ranks 22nd against the pass. Meanwhile, Case Keenum has struggled to start the season for the Broncos with three TDs and five INTs while completing just 61 percent of his passes.

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STARS

Passing

- Mitchell Trubisky, Bears, threw a career-high six touchdown passes - one shy of the NFL record - to lift Chicago to a 48-10 rout of Tampa Bay.

- Deshaun Watson, Texans, was 29 of 42 with 375 yards, two touchdown passes and one interception, and also rushed six times for 41 yards and his first rushing score of the season in Houston's 37-34 OT win at Indianapolis.

- Blake Bortles, Jaguars, passed for a career-high 388 yards with two TDs and an INT to help Jacksonville to a 31-12 win over the New York Jets.

- Derek Carr, Raiders, threw four TD passes and a game-tying 2-point conversion with 30 seconds left in regulation, helping Oakland top Cleveland 45-42 in overtime.

- Tom Brady, Patriots, threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns and New England handed Miami its first loss of the season in a 38-7 rout.

- Andrew Luck, Colts, was 40 of 62 for a career-high 464 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in Indianapolis' 37-34 overtime loss to Houston.

- Matt Ryan, Falcons, had 419 yards passing and three touchdowns in Atlanta's 37-36 loss to Cincinnati.

- Philip Rivers, Chargers, threw for three touchdowns and helped Los Angeles rally for a 29-27 victory over San Francisco.

- Joe Flacco, Ravens, passed for a career-high 363 yards with two touchdowns in Baltimore's 26-14 win at Pittsburgh.

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Rushing

- Alvin Kamara, Saints, ran for three second-half touchdowns and finished with 134 yards on 19 carries in New Orleans' 33-18 victory over the New York Giants.

- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, had a career-high 240 all-purpose yards, with 152 yards rushing on a season-high 25 carries and 88 receiving - highlighted by a 38-yard touchdown on a screen in the second quarter - in Dallas' 26-24 win over Detroit.

- Sony Michel, Patriots, rushed 25 times for 112 yards and his first career touchdown to help New England beat Miami 38-7.

- Mike Davis, Seahawks, ran for 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 21 carries to help Seattle to a 20-17 victory at Arizona.

- Marshawn Lynch, Raiders, ran for 130 yards for his most productive game in four years as Oakland topped Cleveland 45-42 in overtime.

- Giovani Bernard, Bengals, had two touchdown runs in Cincinnati's 37-36 win at Atlanta.

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Receiving

- Golden Tate, Lions, caught two touchdown passes and finished with eight receptions for 132 yards in Detroit's 26-24 loss at Dallas.

- DeAndre Hopkins, and Keke Coutee, Texans. Hopkins had eight catches for 134 yards and a touchdown, while Coutee had 11 receptions for 109 yards in Houston's 37-34 overtime win at Indianapolis.

- Corey Davis, Titans, had nine receptions for 161 yards, including a winning 10-yard catch in overtime to lift Tennessee to a 26-20 victory over Philadelphia.

- Julio Jones, Falcons, caught nine passes for 173 yards in Atlanta's 37-36 loss to Cincinnati.

- Dede Westbrook, Jaguars, had nine receptions for 130 yards to help lift Jacksonville to a 31-12 win over the New York Jets.

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Special Teams

- Adam Vinatieri, Colts, became the league's career leader in field goals when he made a 42-yarder with 2 seconds left in the first half of Indianapolis' 37-34 overtime loss to Houston and extended the mark to 567 with a 44-yarder in the extra period.

- Brett Maher, Cowboys, kicked a 38-yard field goal - his fourth kick of the game - as time expired, lifting Dallas to a 26-24 victory over Detroit.

- Ka'imi Fairbairn, Texans, took advantage of his second chance on a 37-yard field goal attempt, making it as time expired in overtime to give Houston a 37-34 victory over Indianapolis. He had missed the first kick wide left, just after Indy called timeout.

- Sebastian Janikowski, Seahawks, kicked a 52-yard field goal as time expired to give Seattle a 20-17 victory over Arizona.

- Keith Tandy, Falcons, blocked Kevin Huber's punt on Cincinnati's first drive of the second half in Atlanta's 37-36 loss.

- Wil Lutz, Saints, matched his career high with four field goals in New Orleans' 33-18 win over the New York Giants.

- Justin Tucker, Ravens, booted four second-half field goals in Baltimore's 26-14 victory at Pittsburgh.

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Defense

- Demarcus Lawrence, Cowboys, matched his career high with three sacks in Dallas' 26-24 win over Detroit, and has at least half a sack in all four games.

- Jadeveon Clowney, Texans, recovered a botched snap in the end zone for a touchdown and had two sacks in Houston's 37-34 overtime win at Indianapolis.

- Antone Exum, 49ers, put San Francisco on the board 57 seconds into the game when he picked off Philip Rivers' pass intended for Keenan Allen and returned it 38 yards for a touchdown in a 29-27 loss to the Chargers.

- Kyler Fackrell, Packers, had three of Green Bay's seven sacks in a 22-0 victory over Buffalo.

- Gareon Conley, Raiders, returned his first interception 36 yards for a touchdown in Oakland's 45-42 overtime win over Cleveland.

- Takkarist McKinley, Falcons, had three sacks in Atlanta's 37-36 loss to Cincinnati.

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MILESTONES

Adam Vinatieri became the league's career leader in field goals when he made a 42-yarder with 2 seconds left in the first half of Indianapolis' 37-34 overtime loss and extended the mark to 567 with a 44-yarder to give the Colts a 34-31 lead in the extra period. The 45-year-old kicker moved past Hall of Famer Morten Andersen, who had 565 career field goals. ... Andrew Luck broke the Colts' single-game franchise record for attempts (62), tied the franchise mark for completions (40), wound up second in franchise history for single-game yards (464) and came within a whisker of tying the franchise's largest regular-season comeback (21). ... Miami's Frank Gore became the eighth running back in NFL history to appear in 200 NFL games. ... Philip Rivers passed for 250 yards in the Los Angeles Chargers' 29-27 win over San Francisco, giving him 51,504 for his career and passing John Elway (51,475) for eighth on the NFL's all-time list.

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STREAKS & STATS

Chicago's Khalil Mack had a strip-sack in the first half of the Bears' 48-10 win over Tampa Bay, making him the first player with a sack and forced fumble in four straight games since Robert Mathis for Indianapolis in 2005. ... New England's Tom Brady improved to 15-1 as a starter against Miami with a 38-7 rout. ... Since 2002, the Patriots are 7-0 after back-to-back losses. ... Cordarrelle Patterson became the 70th player to catch a touchdown pass from Brady. It tied Brady with Vinny Testaverde for the most players with a touchdown reception from a single quarterback in NFL history. ... Green Bay dominated Buffalo 22-0 for its first shutout since a 9-0 win over the Jets in 2010. ... Cleveland's Nick Chubb had just three carries in a 45-42 OT loss at Oakland, but the first went for a 63-yard score in the second quarter and the last went for 41 yards and another TD. He finished with for 105 yards. ... Joe Flacco's 3-yard TD pass to Alex Collins in the first quarter of Baltimore's 26-14 victory at Pittsburgh marked the 13th straight red-zone trip by the Ravens that ended with a touchdown, the longest streak to start a season in NFL history. Baltimore's 14th red-zone trip ended with a fumble by Collins that was recovered by Pittsburgh safety Terrell Edmunds.

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BONUS FOOTBALL

At least one game has gone to overtime in each of the first four weeks of the season, joining the 1979, `83 and 2002 seasons as the only campaigns to feature at least one OT game in each of its first four weeks. On Sunday, Houston beat Indianapolis 37-34, Tennessee topped Philadelphia 26-23, and Oakland edged Cleveland 45-42.

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TRU DOMINANCE

Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky threw six touchdown passes in a 48-10 win over Tampa Bay, finishing one TD pass short of the NFL and franchise marks. Sid Luckman set the Bears record against the New York Giants in 1943, and is tied with seven others in NFL history to throw seven TD passes in a game. Trubisky had never thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game, but he threw for five in the first half alone as Chicago grabbed a 38-3 lead. The only other player with more in a single half since 1991 was Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers with six in the first two quarters against the Bears in a romp at Lambeau Field in November 2014. The Bears also racked up 483 yards in this one, nearly matching their record of 488 in that same game, on the way to their highest point total since 51-20 victory over Tennessee in 2012.

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STARTS

Miami was denied its first 4-0 start since Hall of Fame coach Don Shula's last season in 1995 with a 38-7 drubbing at New England. ... The Arizona Cardinals are 0-4 for the first time since 1986, two years before they moved from St. Louis.

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BOLD CALL

Instead of punting on fourth-and-4 from his 43-yard line and settling for a tie, Indianapolis coach Frank Reich called for a short, seemingly safe pass from Andrew Luck to Chester Rogers. But Luck's pass bounced short, the Texans got a 24-yard completion on the next play and Ka'imi Fairbairn made a 37-yard field goal as time expired to give the Houston Texans a 37-34 overtime victory.

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INJURY AND INSULT

Seattle's Earl Thomas was carted to the locker room with a broken left leg in the fourth quarter of the Seahawks' 20-17 win at Arizona. Thomas, who's embroiled in a contract dispute with the team, raised his middle finger toward the Seattle side of the field as he was being carted off. The six-time Pro Bowler held out of training camp while seeking a contract extension and joined the Seahawks a week before the season despite having a contract that expires at the end of this season.

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HELLO, MR. PRESIDENT

Former President Jimmy Carter was presented a No. 39 Falcons jersey, as the 39th U.S. president, before Atlanta's 37-36 loss to Cincinnati. In a pregame ceremony, Carter was given a birthday cake by team owner Arthur Blank one day before Carter's 94th birthday. Carter also rang the pregame train horn and yelled ''Rise Up'' to Falcons fans.

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GORDON DEBUTS

New England wide receiver Josh Gordon made his debut with the team Sunday, finishing with two catches for 32 yards in a 38-7 win over Miami. It was his first playing time in New England since his trade from the Cleveland Browns on Sept. 17. He made his first reception at the 7:27 mark of the first quarter, hauling in a 13-yard grab. Gordon was inactive in Week 3 in New England's loss to Detroit with a hamstring injury and was limited in practice this week.

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TITANIC WIN

Marcus Mariota hit Corey Davis with a 10-yard touchdown pass just before the end of overtime, rallying Tennessee from a 14-point deficit in the third quarter for a 26-23 win over Philadelphia. The Titans also trailed 23-20 in overtime before coming back again behind Mariota, who in his first start since being knocked out of the season opener with an injured elbow threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns while also running for a score. On the winning drive, the Titans converted three fourth downs, one by penalty. Mariota hit Taywan Taylor with a 19-yarder on fourth-and-15, and Mariota found a wide-open Dion Lewis on fourth-and-2 for a 17-yard gain. Facing third-and-goal and the clock running out, Mariota found Davis for the receiver's first TD catch in the regular season.

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SWING AND A MISS

Caleb Sturgis missed two extra-point attempts in the Chargers' 29-27 win over San Francisco. Los Angeles has missed eight PATs since the start of last season, the most in the league. The Chargers have missed 10 extra points since the kick was moved back in 2015, and are one of eight teams in the league to have missed 10 or more.

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SPOILED FIRST START

Baker Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick, threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns to put Cleveland in position to win, but also committed four turnovers, losing two fumbles and throwing two interceptions in the Browns' 45-42 overtime loss at Oakland. The Browns were seeking their first back-to-back wins since November 2014. Mayfield's first start got off to a rough start when his pass on the second play of Cleveland's second drive deflected off Antonio Callaway and went right to Gareon Conley, who returned his first career interception 36 yards for a TD

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BENGALS ROAR

Andy Dalton threw a 13-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Green with 7 seconds remaining, lifting the Cincinnati Bengals to a 37-36 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Dalton moved the Bengals 75 yards in about four minutes. He completed two passes on fourth down to Tyler Boyd, who had 11 catches for 100 yards, to keep the drive alive. Green made a diving catch in the right side of the end zone to cap the drive.

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SIDELINED

Seattle safety Earl Thomas left the Seahawks' 20-17 win at Arizona on a cart with a broken left leg. Angry over his contract situation, Thomas was injured in the fourth quarter while defending Arizona's Chad Williams, who caught a tying touchdown pass. Thomas, who wanted contract security beyond this season or a trade, made an obscene gesture toward the Seattle side of the field as he was being carted off. The Seahawks also lost starting tight end Will Dissly, who was carted to the locker room in the first quarter with a knee injury. ... Cincinnati also lost its tight end, with Tyler Eifert suffering a gruesome lower right leg injury early in the third quarter of the Bengals' 37-36 victory over Atlanta. ... Rob Gronkowski departed New England's 38-7 victory over Miami in the third quarter with a right ankle problem and did not return. ... Indianapolis' T.Y. Hilton left the Colts' loss to Houston with a chest injury, returned, and then left again with a hamstring injury. The Texans' Will Fuller V caught a TD pass but left with a hamstring injury late in the first half.

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SPEAKING

''We should fire every person that was on that field today, starting with me. That was horrific.'' - Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter after the Buccaneers were routed by Chicago 48-10 on Sunday.

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''I'm tired of growing pains. I think we can do those things better. Those things hadn't reared their ugly head until now. We can do better. Baker can do better. Our offense can do better. Special teams can do better, defense can do better. So, we've got to play better. - Cleveland coach Hue Jackson, whose Browns blew a 14-point second-half lead and lost 45-42 to Oakland in overtime after snapping a 19-game winless streak last week.

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''It feels like my first win in 100 years. It's great to be back.'' - Oakland's Jon Gruden, who won his first game since returning to coaching from the TV broadcasting booth, a span of 3,591 days.

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SuperContest Picks - Week 4
September 30, 2018

Week 4

1) Oakland -2.5 (1,110) WIN
2) Cincinnati +5 (952) WIN
3) Denver +5 (863)
4) N.Y. Giants +3.5 (846) LOSS
5) Indianapolis -1 (813) LOSS

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Minnesota (+7) 413 L.A. Rams (-7) 201
Miami (+6.5) 428 New England (-6.5) 681
Houston (+1) 547 Indianapolis (-1) 813
Cincinnati (+5) 952 Atlanta (-5) 268
Buffalo (+9.5) 231 Green Bay (-9.5) 405
Detroit (+3) 567 Dallas (-3) 488
N.Y. Jets (+7.5) 250 Jacksonville (-7.5) 455
Tampa Bay (+3) 402 Chicago (-3) 595
Philadelphia (-4) 545 Tennessee (+4) 488
Seattle (-3) 740 Arizona (+3) 268
Cleveland (+2.5) 376 Oakland (-2.5) 1110
San Francisco ( +10) 189 L.A. Chargers (-10) 556
New Orleans (-3.5) 441 N.Y. Giants (+3.5) 846
Baltimore (+3) 516 Pittsburgh (-3) 407
Kansas City (-5) 559 Denver (+5) 863
Consensus Results - 2017 | 2016

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 0-5 4-6 40%
3 3-2 7-8 47%

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NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/30/2018 12-14-0 46.15% -17.00
09/27/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/23/2018 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/16/2018 17-8-0 68.00% +41.00
09/13/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/09/2018 15-10-1 60.00% +20.00
09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals...............61-47-1.....55.96%.....+46.50


NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

09/30/2018.............5 - 3...................+8.50....................6 - 5...............+2.50..............+11.00
09/27/2018.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
09/23/2018.............6 - 4...................+8.00....................2 - 4...............-12.00..............-4.00
09/20/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1...............-5.50................-11.00
09/16/2018.............5 - 2..................+14.00...................3 - 2...............+4.00..............+18.00
09/13/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1................-5.50...............-11.00
09/09/2018.............4 - 4...................-2.00.....................8 - 3...............+23.50............+21.50
09/06/2018.............1 - 0..................+5.00.....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00

Totals....................22 - 15................+27.50..................21 - 16..............+17.00............+44.50

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Monday’s six-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 4 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Raiders -2.5 (1,110)- W

2) Bengals +5 (952)- W

3) Broncos +5 (863)

4) Giants +3.5 (846)- L

5) Colts -1 (813)- L

6) Seahawks -3 (740)- T

Season record: 11-10-2

Quote of the Day
“If you want to play, make me play you. Make it so that I’m an idiot if I don’t have you on the court.”
Gregg Popovich

Monday’s quiz
Tom Brady tied an NFL record Sunday, throwing a TD pass to his 70th receiver; who does he share this record with? (Hint: He is retired)

Sunday’s quiz
Saints’ coach Sean Payton was a QB for the Chicago Bears in the strike replacement games they had during the 1987 season.

Saturday’s quiz
Jimmy Butler played his college basketball at Marquette.


Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Bengals 37, Falcons 36— Atlanta is first team since ’66 Giants to score 35+ points two weeks in a row, and lose both games (Giants lost 72-41 @ Washington, 49-40 @ Cleveland in consecutive games, going 1-12-1 after a 6-0 preseason). Falcons’ defense is really bad.

Cincy scored on a 13-yard pass to AJ Green with 0:07 left for the win, ending a 16-play, 75-yard drive. Bengals lost TE Eifert in 3rd quarter, with what looked like a broken ankle.

Texans 37, Colts 34— Coaching Malpractice 101- With 0:27 left in OT, Houston had 4th and 4 on its own 43-yard line. You punt the ball and take the tie, right? It is still early in the season.

Colts went for it, threw an incomplete pass, and three plays later, Houston kicked field goal to win the game. This is Grade A stupidity; in a 16-game season, you can’t give a game away!!!! There is a proper time to be conservative- this was it.

Bright spot for Indy was Andrew Luck, who led a 9-play, 85-yard drive that tied game 31-all with 0:45 left in regulation. Luck passed for 464 yards; Colts shouldn’t have lost this game.

Titans 26, Eagles 23 OT— Tennessee scored on a 10-yard pass with 0:05 left in OT to pull out a game they trailed 17-3 early in third quarter. Titans are 3-1, with three consecutive wins, all by three points.

Eagles in red zone; four drives, one TD, three FG’s
Titans in red zone: four drives, three TD’s, one FG

Why did the NFL shorten overtimes to 10:00? OT football is fun, ties not so much.

Cowboys 26, Lions 24— Dallas drove 55 yards in nine plays and kicked winning FG at gun; they are 2-0 at home, 0-2 on road. Dallas led 20-10 after third quarter, but Lions scored two TD’s in 4th quarter. Rookie kicker Maher kicked four FG’s for the Cowboys.

Dallas had five plays of 20+ yards, more than they had (4) in first three games combined.

Patriots 38, Dolphins 7— Miami coach Adam Gase has some serious coaching to do this week, after his 3-0 team came north and got their butts kicked very soundly. Dolphins have now lost ten games in a row in Foxboro. Patriots are 25-11 vs spread coming off a loss.

Tom Brady tied an NFL record by throwing a TD pass to his 70th different receiver (Cordarrelle Patterson). Check the quiz on this site if you know who the other guy is.

Packers 22, Bills 0— Total yardage was 423-145, which sums it up; sometimes when play a rookie QB on the road, bad things happen. Hey, Jared Goff was 0-7 as a starter two years ago, and he’s doing pretty well now. Since 2008. Bills are 22-39-2 vs spread coming off a win.

One thing about Green Bay; Aaron Rodgers obviously has an injured knee, but in last 5:00 of this game, Rodgers was in game, throwing ball and scrambling. Why? Nothing good can come from that— thats where the coach has to step in and either run the ball on every play or sub Rodgers out for the backup.

Jaguars 31, Jets 12— Total yardage was 503-178; Jaguars averaged 9.4 yards per pass play. I mean, Jacksonville was -3 in turnovers, still won by three TD’s. That doesn’t happen much.

Pains me to type this, but New England outscored the rest of the AFC East (Miami, Jets, Bills) Sunday, 38-19.

Bears 48, Buccaneers 10— Ryan Fitzpatrick era came to a crushing end; Bucs were down 38-3 at the half and Jameis Winston played the whole second half. Chicago averaged 12.7 yards per pass attempt; when was last time they did THAT? Bears are already +6 in turnover margin.

Mitchell Trubisky is first Bears’ QB to throw 5+ TD’s in a game since Johnny Lujack threw six on December 11, 1949, against the Chicago Cardinals at Wrigley Field.

Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17— In a game in a dome where both teams missed two FG’s, Seattle K Janikowski nailed a 52-yarder at the gun to even Seattle’s record at 2-2, while Arizona drops to 0-4, losing Josh Rosen’s first NFL start. Not often a road team wins while going 0-10 on 3rd down conversions; Seattle ran ball for 171 yards, had 9-yard advantage in field position. Total yardage was 331-263, Seahawks.

Home side is now 0-7-1 in last eight series games; Seattle is 5-0-1 in last six visits here; Arizona is 12-6-1 in last 19 games as home underdogs.

Raiders 45, Browns 42 OT— Gruden gets his first win in decade in game his team trailed 28-14 in 3rd quarter; Oakland tied game with 0:30 left in regulation, won it on 29-yard FG in OT.

Browns aren’t a joke anymore; Mayfield threw for 295 yards in his first NFL start, but Cleveland turned ball over four times (-2)- they’ve had a very interesting month, with two brutal losses and a tie, wrapped around a win over the Jets.

Saints 33, Giants 18— New Orleans was in red zone four times in 2nd quarter, kicked four FG’s, leaving door open for Giants, but Saints scored TDs on both 2nd half drives and had 389-299 edge in yardage for game, holding Beckham to 7 catches for 60 yards.

Saints wore throwback uniforms, the kind Charlton Heston wore in the 1969 movie Number One, when he played an aging Saints’ QB. I’ve tried to find the movie to watch it, but have seen on the Interweb that Heston didn’t like the movie and tried his best to squelch its distribution- he broke a rib filming the football scenes.

Chargers 29, 49ers 27— Think about this, the 49ers were -1 in turnovers, lost field position by 19 yards (an awful lot), scored only 13 points on four red zone drives, and only lost by two points!!!

49ers scored a defensive TD; yardage was 368-364, so they hung in with backup QB Beathard as a 10-point underdog, averaging 7.6 yards/pass attempt- thats bad news for the Chargers. LA is now 2-8 vs spread last ten times they laid double digits. Over is 4-0 in Charger games this year.

Ravens 26, Ravens 14— Baltimore led 14-0 early, fumbled on goal line when it looked like it would be 21-0, then Steelers tied game in 2nd quarter, before Ravens outscored them 12-0 in 2nd half, with Tucker booting four FG’s, second week in row Steelers didn’t score in 2nd half.

Ravens are 8-2-1 vs spread in last 11 divisional road games; they outgained Steelers 451-284, had 16-yard edge in field position, were 8-17 on third down (Steelers were 2-12). When was last time Steelers had a game where they ran ball 11 times for 19 yards?

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Chiefs at Broncos
September 30, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Chiefs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) have put together the most impressive start through three weeks of the season by beating the Chargers, Steelers, and 49ers. Kansas City’s offense continued to click in last Sunday’s 38-27 victory over San Francisco as the Chiefs topped the 38-point for the third time this season. Patrick Mahomes tossed three touchdown passes in the second quarter alone for Kansas City, while moving his season total to 13 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions.

Mahomes is leading this Kansas City squad to plenty of touchdowns (16), while the Chiefs have kicked only two field goals in their three wins. Last year’s rookie sensation Kareem Hunt has struggled to rack up yards through three games (173), but the running back found the end zone twice against San Francisco. Kansas City covered each of the first two weeks in the underdog role, while cashing as a 5 ½-point favorite against San Francisco for the club’s second consecutive season with a 3-0 start.

The Broncos (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season at Baltimore after picking up consecutive home wins over Seattle and Oakland. Denver scored 14 quick points in the first quarter but was held scoreless in the final three quarters in a 27-14 setback in rainy Baltimore as a 5 ½-point underdog.

Quarterback Case Keenum put together an unimpressive effort in his third start with the Broncos by throwing for 192 yards, while getting intercepted once. Emmanuel Sanders rushed for a 35-yard touchdown to give the Broncos a 14-7 advantage, but couldn’t post another score for the final 53 minutes. The loss was the eighth in nine tries on the road since Vance Joseph took over as head coach in 2017.

MILE HIGH TIMES

If the Broncos are playing at home in the first four weeks of the season, you can pretty much mark down a “W.” Dating back to 2013, Denver has won 15 consecutive games at home in games during the first four weeks, including the early victories this season against Seattle and Oakland. The Broncos have covered 11 times in this stretch as several of the non-covers came as heavy favorites when Peyton Manning was the man under center. This is the third time the Broncos are listed as an underdog in this situation, winning outright against the Panthers in 2016 and over the Cowboys in 2017.

REID IT AND WEAP

Under head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs have been a fantastic team to back on the road against AFC West foes. Since 2015, Kansas City owns a 9-1 record in this situation, including an opening week victory over Los Angeles. The only loss in this stretch came at Oakland last season on the final play of a 31-30 setback, but the Chiefs have compiled a 5-1 ATS mark as a favorite.

SERIES HISTORY

The Broncos won five consecutive meetings with the Chiefs from 2013 through 2015, capped off by the famous Thursday night comeback at Arrowhead Stadium in which Denver scored two late touchdowns to stun Kansas City. However, the Chiefs have turned the tide in the series by capturing five straight matchups, including sweeps the last two seasons.

The Chiefs cruised past the Broncos in a Monday night affair last October at Arrowhead, 29-19 to cash as seven-point favorites. Denver turned the ball over five times, while Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker booted five field goals in the victory. Kansas City held off Denver in Week 17 at Mile High, 27-24 in Mahomes’ first NFL start, playing in place of the resting Alex Smith. Although Mahomes didn’t throw a touchdown pass, the Chiefs posted 379 yards of offense, while grabbing their third straight victory in Denver.

TOTAL TALK

Heading into Week 3, only four teams cashed the OVER in each of the first three games. The Chiefs were among that group, while the Broncos have finished UNDER the total in back-to-back contests since their high-scoring affair against the Seahawks. Dating back to 2015, the OVER has hit in five of six meetings between Kansas City and Denver, but none of those games saw a total above 42.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Chiefs opened up as 4 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that number has dropped to four at several books and even down to 3 ½ at offshore outfit 5Dimes. The total sits at a whopping 54 ½, the highest total for Denver since finishing UNDER 50 at New Orleans in 2016.

GAME PROPS – Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards - Patrick Mahomes
OVER 295 ½ (-110)
UNDER 295 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 2 ½ (+115)
UNDER 2 ½ (-135)

Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill
OVER 74 ½ (-110)
UNDER 74 ½ (-110)

Total Completions – Case Keenum
OVER 23 (-110)
UNDER 23 (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Case Keenum
OVER 1 ½ (-110)
UNDER 1 ½ (-110)

Will Royce Freeman score a touchdown?
YES (EVEN)
NO (-120)

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in on this AFC West matchup and says that the ground game will be critical for a win, “Despite playing with a lead nearly the entire season, the Chiefs have only 310 rushing yards on 3.9 yards per carry as Denver can expect an edge on the ground in this matchup. The Broncos are fifth in the NFL with 5.2 yards per carry and third in the NFL with 153 rushing yards per game. The Broncos also have allowed just 3.3 yards per rush on the season for the second best run defense in the NFL with Kansas City 30th in yards per rush allowed at 5.2.”

From the turnover perspective, Nelson points out that the Chiefs in spite of their undefeated mark are not forcing many takeaways, “The Chiefs had one of the best turnover margins in the NFL last season at +15, but are just +1 this season while the Broncos have managed to start 2-1 despite five turnovers this season with a -2 margin after being second worst in the NFL last season at -17. The Broncos have a suspect resume with -9 scoring differential on the season as they won a pair of very close games at home to start the season including a great comeback vs. Oakland.”

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Best Bet
September 28, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 4 MNF Betting Preview

Kansas City vs Denver

The Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the better stories in the NFL through three weeks as nobody can seemingly stop their high-powered attack, and QB Patrick Mahomes is the real deal in the eyes of many. There is no denying that Mahomes has had a historic start to his career as a starter (13 TD to 0 INT) , but it's still only been three weeks so maybe we should all just pump the breaks on putting him in the HOF already.

Mahomes and this KC attack have yet to really face a team with any sort of elite pass rush(er), and none of the teams they've beaten come into Week 4 with a winning record.

Neither of those are the case this week under the bright MNF lights as the 2-1 SU Denver Broncos welcome Mahomes and the Chiefs to town, with Von Miller and the rest of that Broncos pass rush ready to try and make an example out of Mahomes for everyone to see. Can the Broncos get it done?

YouWager.eu Odds: Kansas City (-4.5); Total set at 54.5

With fantasy football as big as it is these days, the numbers Mahomes has put up so far this year is the gasoline on the fire of all the love he's received so far. A 13-to-0 TD/INT ratio to start a career is absurd without question, but how much better can it really get?

It's not like he's got the track record of someone like Brady or Rodgers you can fall back on when suggesting there won't be a fall off for Mahomes, nor can you really believe Mahomes and the Chiefs attack will continue to be as good/lucky in terms of not turning the ball over. The only other team not to throw an INT yet is Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, and I don't think we can put Mahomes in Brees' category just yet.

Now all that isn't to say that Mahomes may be as good as advertised long-term and might not experience a fall off in production immediately, but the more film opposing defenses have to study on this guy, the chances only increase of the production drop off happening. Last week we saw a 49ers defense – that was torched to the tune of 35 first half points allowed – make great adjustments at half and hold the Chiefs to just three points in the final 30 minutes.

You'd better believe the Broncos defense has made notes on what SF did there, and with Denver having a much better front seven, and an all-world pass rusher like Von Miller to boot, I'm expecting this Denver defense to step up on national television and be the first to make this KC attack look human.

Yet, taking the points with the home dog here while intriguing, is not the best way to attack this game if you ask me. Denver has yet to cover a spread this season and if Kansas City experiences only a slight drop off in offensive production, I've got a tough time trusting QB Case Keenum and the Broncos offense to keep up. I don't believe it will get to be that style of game, but it's a thought that's kept me off the Broncos as of now.

However, what I can trust Case Keenum to do is be that journeyman, dink-and-dunk, game manager QB that he's been for the bulk of his career and keep KC's offense on the sidelines for as long as possible. That's how Minnesota found so much success with Keenum last season – sustain long drives and let the defense carry the workload – and that's the strategy I see Denver employing here. The Chargers, Steelers, and 49ers were all forced to get involved in shootouts with the Chiefs after KC exploded early, but if Denver can slow the game down to a crawl right from the start their chances of getting a SU win greatly increase.

Therefore, I'm looking at going 'under' the total in this spot as this run of KC 'overs' that the books have been getting killed on for three weeks is bound to end soon, and if the Broncos do have success in slowing the game down, there simply won't be enough possessions for either side to even get this game above a big mid-50's number like we've got.

Denver has yet to even play a game that finished with more than 51 total points scored, and with their last two outings finishing with an average of 40 points per game, even two TD's more than that still cashes an 'under' ticket here. With this being the last game of Week 4 and the majority of bettors typically already liking favorites and 'overs' already in MNF contests, you know the books are going to be cheering for a low-scoring Denver win/cover and I'll be with them at least in terms of this total.

Odds per - YouWager.eu

Best Bet: Under 54.5 points

[StarDust Bum]

Chiefs (3-0) @ Broncos (2-1)— Mahomes has 13 TD passes in three games, averaging 9.6 yds/pass attempt; KC scored 38-42-38 points in winning/covering all three games, which all went over. Chiefs allowed 418/442 PY in their two road games; under Reid, they’re 8-5 as road faves. Denver won both its home games by total of four points; they’ve been bad in red zone, scoring only 3.88 pts/drive- hard to beat prolific Chiefs kicking FG’s. Broncos covered five of last seven tries as home underdogs. Chiefs won last five series games, winning last three visits to Mile High City, by 16-3-3 points. Denver does have 18 plays of 20+ yards and Chiefs have given up 20, so if weather cooperates, this could be an entertaining Monday night shootout.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 27-33-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 33-27-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 33-31

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bengals (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 37-36
Ravens (+3, ML +140) at Steelers, 26-14
Titans (+3, ML +130) vs. Eagles, 26-23 (OT)

The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-9) vs. Bills, 22-0
Jaguars (-7.5) vs. Jets, 31-12
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dolphins, 38-7

May Day Mayfield

-- The Cleveland Browns probably should have come away with a 42-34 win against the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, as it appeared from every angle on the telecast that RB Carlos Hyde converted a first down which would have meant the Browns could simply take a knee. It's uncertain where the officials saw conclusive evidence, but they overturned the first-down call on the field and it brought up fourth down, giving the Raiders a chance. They picked up a touchdown and game-tying two-point conversion to force OT, winning it with a field goal, 45-42. Lost in the review controversy was Mayfield, who had two touchdowns in his first NFL start, but he also had two interceptions and two lost fumbles. Since 2002, quarterbacks who were No. 1 overall picks making the first NFL start are now 0-11 SU/ATS. Houston's David Carr is the last to successfully win and cover in his debut. It's ironic his brother, Derek, extended that streak by rallying to beat Mayfield.

Second-Half Ravens

-- The Baltimore Ravens blanked the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second half at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football, and they have now outscored their opponents 49-9 in the second half through four games in 2018. It was another 'under' result on Sunday night, too, as underdogs and the under are now 4-1 in five SNF games so far this season.

Total Recall

-- The two lowest totals on the board (40), N.Y. Jets-Jacksonville and Seattle-Arizona, split 1-1. The Jags nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 31 points. 'Over' bettors were hoping for overtime in the Seahawks game, but Sebastian Janikowski banged home a long field goal at the buzzer to sink the Cardinals and save 'under' bettors. In the Philadelphia-Tennessee (41.5) game, it was OT which saved over bettors. A flurry of points in the fourth quarter had the Eagles and Titans tied 20-20. The Eagles struck first with a field goal, but WR Corey Davis walked it off with a touchdown in the 26-23 win.

-- The highest total on the board in Week 4 was Cincinnati-Atlanta (52.5), and that game featured the most points outside of the Cleveland-Oakland tilt. The Bengals ralled for a 37-36 win to sink the Falcons, who have yielded 79 points over their past two home games, thanks largely in part to several key defensive season-ending injuries during the early going. The next three highest totals on the board, New Orleans-N.Y. Giants (52), Baltimore-Pittsburgh (51.5) and Miami-New England (50.5) each cashed under.

-- The 'over' has now cashed in all four games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers are the only two teams in the AFC with a 4-0 'over' mark so far, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to join the club on Monday against the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, the under is 4-0 for the Arizona Cardinals so far this season, while the Dallas Cowboys saw their first 'over' result after a 3-0 'under' run to start 2018.

-- There are two primetime games in the books so far in Week 4, with the 'over/under' 1-1 with the MNF game pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 5-7 (41.7%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bengals TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending broken ankle in Sunday's 37-36 win in Atlanta.

-- Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard (knee) left the blowout loss in Chicago and he will have an MRI on Monday, although head coach Dirk Koetter seemed optimistic that the injury isn't that bad.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) suffered a hamstring injury in the team's OT loss against the Texans and head coach Frank Reich said after the game that Hilton's outlook isn't good for the quick turnaround Thursday in New England.

-- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) returned from a hamstring injury, but aggravated the ailment and was back on the shelf by mid-game.

-- Patrioits TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) left with an ankle injury and he did not return. However, with a lopsided score on the board, he might have simply been held out as a precaution.

-- Seahawks S Earl Thomas (knee) suffered a broken leg in Sunday's game in Arizona, but nothing was wrong with his finger. TE Will Dissly (knee) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending injury, too.

-- Texans WR Will Fuller (hamstring) left the team's game in the third quarter and he was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns host the Ravens in AFC North action. The Ravens have won and covered five in a row in this series, and the 'under' has connected in three consecutive meetings. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland. The last time the Browns won at home against the Ravens came back on Nov. 3, 2013, a 24-18 win and cover.

-- The Lions return home to face the Packers at Ford Field. The home team is just 3-4 SU in the past seven meetings in this NFC North battle. The 'over' has connected in five straight meetings, and three in a row at Ford Field. The Lions swept this series and covered both games in 2017.

-- The Raiders will travel to the Los Angeles area to battle the Chargers, and they should have plenty of fans travelling with them. The Chargers franchise is 4-2 SU over the past six home games, and 9-4 SU in the past 13 battles in L.A./San Diego. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine home games against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in L.A./San Diego, and 10-2-1 in the past 13 battles in Southern California.

-- The Cardinals travel to meet the 49ers in Santa Clara, and San Francisco is looking to snap a six-game losing skid in the series. They're also 1-3 ATS in their past four home games against Arizona, while the 'under' is 3-1 in the past four in the Bay Area and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/30/2018 12-14-0 46.15% -17.00
09/27/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/23/2018 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/16/2018 17-8-0 68.00% +41.00
09/13/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/09/2018 15-10-1 60.00% +20.00
09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals...............61-47-1.....55.96%.....+46.50


NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

09/30/2018.............5 - 3...................+8.50....................6 - 5...............+2.50..............+11.00
09/27/2018.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
09/23/2018.............6 - 4...................+8.00....................2 - 4...............-12.00..............-4.00
09/20/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1...............-5.50................-11.00
09/16/2018.............5 - 2..................+14.00...................3 - 2...............+4.00..............+18.00
09/13/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1................-5.50...............-11.00
09/09/2018.............4 - 4...................-2.00.....................8 - 3...............+23.50............+21.50
09/06/2018.............1 - 0..................+5.00.....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00

Totals....................22 - 15................+27.50..................21 - 16..............+17.00............+44.50


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MONDAY, OCTOBER 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

KC at DEN 08:15 PM

KC -3.5

U 53.5

[StarDust Bum]

Mahomes rallies Chiefs past Broncos, 27-23
October 1, 2018

DENVER (AP) Patrick Mahomes rallied the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs back from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter for a 27-23 win over the Denver Broncos on Monday night.

The Chiefs (4-0) took a two-game lead over the Broncos (2-2) in the AFC West with their sixth straight win over their rivals.

Down 23-13, Mahomes directed a 12-play, 75-yard drive that ate up more than six minutes and culminated with a 2-yard TD toss to tight end Travis Kelce, then added a 60-yard touchdown drive, handing off to Kareem Hunt for the 4-yard score with 1:39 remaining.

It was the first time since 2004 that the Broncos blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead at home.

In between Kansas City's scoring drives, the Broncos, who had run roughshod over the Chiefs all night - a 7.2-yard average per run - suddenly abandoned their ground game in favor of three-wide receiver sets that resulted in a quick three-and-out.

Then, struggling punter Marquette King shanked a 35-yarder out of bounds, giving the Chiefs the ball at their 40 with 4:35 left.

Mahomes overcame a couple of flags that put Kansas City in a second-and-30 hole from their 31 and completed a 35-yard pass to Demetrius Harris down to the Broncos' 11 at the 2-minute warning.

The play should never have counted because the play clock expired before the snap, but referee Craig Wrolstad's crew missed it.

After the Chiefs took the lead, the Broncos reached the Kansas City 28, but Case Keenum overthrew an open Demaryius Thomas near the goal line racing down the right sideline. Then rookie Courtland Sutton caught a first-down pass but overhanded it back on a failed hook-and-ladder that resulted in a turnover on downs with 5 seconds left.

Phillip Lindsay's 1-yard TD run broke a 13-all tie late in the third quarter, and Brandon McManus extended the lead to 10 with a 46-yard field goal.

Kelce's TD catch got the Chiefs within three with 6:27 remaining. Denver's three-and-out and shanked punt gave the Chiefs the ball at their 40 and brought the Broncos' exhausted defenders right back onto the field with 4 1/2 minutes remaining.

The officials had another big blunder when Mahomes was about 1 1/2 yards past the line of scrimmage when he scrambled and hit Kelce for a 29-yard catch to the 3 early in the second half. Broncos coach Vance Joseph appeared to be reaching for his red challenge flag but never threw it.

Denver's defense bailed out its coach by forcing the Chiefs to settle for Harrison Butker's chip-shot field goal tied it up at 13.

On Denver's first drive of the second half, Keenum threw a 25-yard pass to tight end Jeff Heuerman, but Chiefs defensive back Eric Murray wrested the ball away as they tumbled out of bounds. Heuerman was starting in place of Jake Butt, who sustained his third ACL tear of his career while practicing special teams on Thursday, ending his season.

It was Keenum's sixth interception with Denver, one fewer than he had all of last season in Minnesota.

The Broncos averaged a whopping 8.5 yards per carry in the first half but kept stopping themselves with pass plays even though Keenum had completed 14 of 19 throws at the half.

Royce Freeman took a toss from Keenum and slipped seven tackles on his way to a 14-yard touchdown in which he dragged linebacker Anthony Hitchens across the goal line to tie it at 10. The big play of the drive was a 42-yard catch by Sutton.

The Chiefs also had a big play on their first touchdown drive as Hunt rumbled 45 yards, setting up Mahomes' 8-yard keeper to put the Chiefs on top 10-3.

Denver led 13-10 at halftime.

NATIONAL ANTHEM

Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and linebacker Brandon Marshall both stood with their teammates during the national anthem. Since the preseason, both players had been retreating to the tunnel nearest their bench during the singing of ''The Star-Spangled Banner.''

INJURIES

Chiefs: Wide receiver Sammy Watkins pulled a hamstring in the second quarter and didn't return. Linebacker Dee Ford (groin) left in the fourth quarter.

Broncos: Right tackle Jared Veldheer left in the first quarter with a knee injury and was replaced by Billy Turner.

UP NEXT

Chiefs: Host Jacksonville on Sunday to begin a stretch of three home games in four weeks.

Broncos: Visit the Jets on Sunday, the first of three road games in four weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/30/2018 12-14-0 46.15% -17.00
09/27/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/23/2018 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/16/2018 17-8-0 68.00% +41.00
09/13/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/09/2018 15-10-1 60.00% +20.00
09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50


NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/01/2018.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
09/30/2018.............5 - 3...................+8.50....................6 - 5...............+2.50..............+11.00
09/27/2018.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
09/23/2018.............6 - 4...................+8.00....................2 - 4...............-12.00..............-4.00
09/20/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1...............-5.50................-11.00
09/16/2018.............5 - 2..................+14.00...................3 - 2...............+4.00..............+18.00
09/13/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1................-5.50...............-11.00
09/09/2018.............4 - 4...................-2.00.....................8 - 3...............+23.50............+21.50
09/06/2018.............1 - 0..................+5.00.....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s six-pack

Major league teams with best attendance this season:

1) LA Dodgers 47,033 per game

2) Bronx 42,998

3) St Louis 42,019

4) San Francisco 38,965

5) Chicago Cubs 38,798

6) LA Angels 37,286

Quote of the Day
“We were terrible on offense. I don’t think it made a difference for the offense. That’s what it was. It was as bad as we’ve played on offense with that many yards in a long time.”
Aaron Rodgers

Tuesday’s quiz
Which current NFL player played for the Amsterdam Admirals, in 1996?

Monday’s quiz
Tom Brady tied an NFL record Sunday, throwing a TD pass to his 70th receiver; he shares this record with Vinny Testaverde.

Sunday’s quiz
Saints’ coach Sean Payton was a QB for the Chicago Bears in the strike replacement games they had during the 1987 season.


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Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) You don’t think pro football players are tough? Vikings’ long snapper Kevin McDermott lost the tip off of his left pinky Thursday, when it got caught in a player’s helmet. He didn’t just lose his fingernail, he lost the tip of his finger, and later on, he came back into the game, missing only one punt snap while they bandaged up the finger.

12) Bad beat from late Saturday night: USC was -3.5 over Arizona, and led 24-14 in the last 2:00. Wildcats had 4th-and-goal inside the 10-yard line, but instead of kicking the easy FG to make the game a one-score game, Kevin Sumlin goes for it and Arizona scores a TD with 1:40 left.

Now all they all have to do to cover the spread is make the extra poi— you got it, they missed, and USC won 24-20, covering by half a point.

11) UMass football coach Mark Whipple was suspended without pay for one week by the school, after he drew an analogy to rape while discussing a sequence in his team’s game.

On UMass’ radio broadcast after the Minutemen’s 58-42 loss at Ohio U, Whipple referred to a play on which he believed the Bobcats should have been called for pass interference, saying, “We had a chance there … and they rape us, and (the referee) picks up the flag.”

No bueno. Choose your words better, coach.

10) Billy McKinney is a 24-year old OF for the Blue Jays who was a first round pick of the Oakland A’s five years ago. Weird thing is, he’s already been traded three times:

— July 5, 2014, A’s traded him to the Cubs as part of the Jeff Samardzija/Addison Russell swap.
— July 25, 2016, Cubs traded him to New York as part of the Aroldis Chapman trade.
— July 26, 2018, New York traded him to Toronto as part of the JA Happ swap.

9) After a 56-27 loss to Notre Dame last week, Wake Forest fired defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel; their defense scored two TD’s Saturday in a 56-24 win over Rice. Obviously Rice isn’t close to being as good as Notre Dame, but did the coaching change make a difference?

8) With Sam Bradford the #3 QB in Arizona now, he loses an active roster bonus of $312,500 per game, not that he is hurting for money. Bradford banked $65M in the five years he played for the Rams, so he should be OK financially.

7) The grandfather of Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp was an offensive lineman in the NFL for 11 years; he played for the Saints in their early days, where he blocked for Archie Manning.

6) NHL’s Carolina Hurricanes will wear Hartford Whaler throwback uniforms for their December 23 home game; very cool green uniforms with the great Whaler logo. Hurricanes were the Hartford Whalers from 1972-97, before moving from Hartford to Raleigh.

5) Tony Parker looks weird in a Charlotte Hornets’ uniform; he played 17 years for the Spurs. Some things you just get used to.

4) There is a US Senator from Rhode Island named Sheldon Whitehouse; if you’re a politician and your last name is Whitehouse, don’t you have to run for President?

3) Brewers 3, Cubs 1……….Dodgers 5, Rockies 2

Colorado visits Wrigley Field tonight in the NL Wild Card game.

2) Last week, a psychology professor at the University of Toronto started showing a presentation to his class of 500 students, but instead of his presentation showing on the screen, a hard core porn movie appeared. Whoops.

1) Last three games the Pittsburgh Steelers played at home, they allowed 37.7 ppg. Atlanta is coming to Steel City this coming Sunday; Falcons’ defense is a mess, too.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 27-33-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 33-27-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 33-31

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bengals (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 37-36
Ravens (+3, ML +140) at Steelers, 26-14
Titans (+3, ML +130) vs. Eagles, 26-23 (OT)

The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-9) vs. Bills, 22-0
Jaguars (-7.5) vs. Jets, 31-12
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dolphins, 38-7

May Day Mayfield

-- The Cleveland Browns probably should have come away with a 42-34 win against the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, as it appeared from every angle on the telecast that RB Carlos Hyde converted a first down which would have meant the Browns could simply take a knee. It's uncertain where the officials saw conclusive evidence, but they overturned the first-down call on the field and it brought up fourth down, giving the Raiders a chance. They picked up a touchdown and game-tying two-point conversion to force OT, winning it with a field goal, 45-42. Lost in the review controversy was Mayfield, who had two touchdowns in his first NFL start, but he also had two interceptions and two lost fumbles. Since 2002, quarterbacks who were No. 1 overall picks making the first NFL start are now 0-11 SU/ATS. Houston's David Carr is the last to successfully win and cover in his debut. It's ironic his brother, Derek, extended that streak by rallying to beat Mayfield.

Second-Half Ravens

-- The Baltimore Ravens blanked the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second half at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football, and they have now outscored their opponents 49-9 in the second half through four games in 2018. It was another 'under' result on Sunday night, too, as underdogs and the under are now 4-1 in five SNF games so far this season.

Total Recall

-- The two lowest totals on the board (40), N.Y. Jets-Jacksonville and Seattle-Arizona, split 1-1. The Jags nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 31 points. 'Over' bettors were hoping for overtime in the Seahawks game, but Sebastian Janikowski banged home a long field goal at the buzzer to sink the Cardinals and save 'under' bettors. In the Philadelphia-Tennessee (41.5) game, it was OT which saved over bettors. A flurry of points in the fourth quarter had the Eagles and Titans tied 20-20. The Eagles struck first with a field goal, but WR Corey Davis walked it off with a touchdown in the 26-23 win.

-- The highest total on the board in Week 4 was Cincinnati-Atlanta (52.5), and that game featured the most points outside of the Cleveland-Oakland tilt. The Bengals ralled for a 37-36 win to sink the Falcons, who have yielded 79 points over their past two home games, thanks largely in part to several key defensive season-ending injuries during the early going. The next three highest totals on the board, New Orleans-N.Y. Giants (52), Baltimore-Pittsburgh (51.5) and Miami-New England (50.5) each cashed under.

-- The 'over' has now cashed in all four games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers are the only two teams in the AFC with a 4-0 'over' mark so far, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to join the club on Monday against the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, the under is 4-0 for the Arizona Cardinals so far this season, while the Dallas Cowboys saw their first 'over' result after a 3-0 'under' run to start 2018.

-- There are two primetime games in the books so far in Week 4, with the 'over/under' 1-1 with the MNF game pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 5-7 (41.7%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bengals TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending broken ankle in Sunday's 37-36 win in Atlanta.

-- Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard (knee) left the blowout loss in Chicago and he will have an MRI on Monday, although head coach Dirk Koetter seemed optimistic that the injury isn't that bad.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) suffered a hamstring injury in the team's OT loss against the Texans and head coach Frank Reich said after the game that Hilton's outlook isn't good for the quick turnaround Thursday in New England.

-- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) returned from a hamstring injury, but aggravated the ailment and was back on the shelf by mid-game.

-- Patrioits TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) left with an ankle injury and he did not return. However, with a lopsided score on the board, he might have simply been held out as a precaution.

-- Seahawks S Earl Thomas (knee) suffered a broken leg in Sunday's game in Arizona, but nothing was wrong with his finger. TE Will Dissly (knee) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending injury, too.

-- Texans WR Will Fuller (hamstring) left the team's game in the third quarter and he was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns host the Ravens in AFC North action. The Ravens have won and covered five in a row in this series, and the 'under' has connected in three consecutive meetings. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland. The last time the Browns won at home against the Ravens came back on Nov. 3, 2013, a 24-18 win and cover.

-- The Lions return home to face the Packers at Ford Field. The home team is just 3-4 SU in the past seven meetings in this NFC North battle. The 'over' has connected in five straight meetings, and three in a row at Ford Field. The Lions swept this series and covered both games in 2017.

-- The Raiders will travel to the Los Angeles area to battle the Chargers, and they should have plenty of fans travelling with them. The Chargers franchise is 4-2 SU over the past six home games, and 9-4 SU in the past 13 battles in L.A./San Diego. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine home games against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in L.A./San Diego, and 10-2-1 in the past 13 battles in Southern California.

-- The Cardinals travel to meet the 49ers in Santa Clara, and San Francisco is looking to snap a six-game losing skid in the series. They're also 1-3 ATS in their past four home games against Arizona, while the 'under' is 3-1 in the past four in the Bay Area and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday. October 4

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) - 10/4/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday. October 7

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BALTIMORE (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 2 - 1) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (3 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 114-147 ATS (-47.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (1 - 3) at CAROLINA (2 - 1) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 158-123 ATS (+22.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 83-50 ATS (+28.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 2 - 1) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 68-43 ATS (+20.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (2 - 1 - 1) at DETROIT (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (3 - 1) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (1 - 3) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 2) - 10/7/2018, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (0 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (1 - 2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) - 10/7/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA RAMS (4 - 0) at SEATTLE (2 - 2) - 10/7/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 87-121 ATS (-46.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 133-183 ATS (-68.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
SEATTLE is 35-61 ATS (-32.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 42-67 ATS (-31.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday. October 8

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WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) - 10/8/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons