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Titans look to pull upset

November 14, 2014


PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-4) at TENNESSEE TITANS (2-7)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Pittsburgh -6, Total: 46.5

The Steelers look to bounce back from a humiliating loss when they visit the struggling Titans on Monday night.

Pittsburgh is coming off a 20-13 defeat to a Jets team that was on an eight-game losing skid. The Steelers trailed the entire game before ultimately falling, which snapped a three-game win streak (SU and ATS). Tennessee dropped its third straight contest in a 21-7 defeat in Baltimore, and fell to 1-6-1 ATS over its past eight games. But the Titans have gotten the best of the Steelers recently, winning-and-covering the last two years. They are also 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) when hosting in this matchup since 1997. Pittsburgh will likely attack on the ground in this game, as Tennessee is allowing 136.6 rushing yards per game. Titans rookie QB Zach Mettenberger has been rather unimpressive as a starter this season, leading his team to a paltry 23 combined points in his two starts.

The Steelers are 13-5 ATS after the first month of the season over the past two years and are up against a team that is 0-6 ATS in home games after the first month of the season in that time. However, Tennessee is 13-4 ATS in home games after scoring nine points or less in its previous game since 1992. DB Troy Polamalu (knee) and LB Ryan Shazier (ankle) are both doubtful for Pittsburgh in this one while S Shamarko Thomas (hamstring) is questionable). The Titans will likely be without starting TE Delanie Walker (concussion).

The Steelers are angry after losing to the lowly Jets a week ago. QB Ben Roethlisberger (3,063 pass yards, 23 TD, 5 INT) threw for 343 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the loss to New York and will need to take much better care of the football to pick up a big road win on Monday night. RB Le’Veon Bell (747 rush yards, 1 TD) could be in for a big game in this one, as the Titans are allowing 136.6 rushing yards per game (29th in NFL) and Bell will get a ton of carries. If Bell is running the ball well, it should open up the field for top WR Antonio Brown (79 rec, 1,070 yards, 8 TD) to make plays. Brown had eight catches for 74 yards in the loss to the Jets, and has now caught eight or more passes in each of the past four games.

Pittsburgh’s defense will be the deciding factor in this game, as they are allowing just 107.5 rushing yards per game (12th in NFL) and 239.5 passing yards per game (15th NFL). This is a rock-solid unit and they’ll need to be aggressive in trying to make the Titans’ rookie quarterback turn the football over. If they can apply constant pressure on Zach Mettenberger, they should be able to win this game pretty easily.

The Titans will be playing with some fire when they host the Steelers in this game as well. They should be pumped up for a chance to defeat an AFC team, but they’ll need improved play from QB Zach Mettenberger (495 pass yards, 3 TD, 3 INT) in order to do that. Mettenberger has a cannon for an arm, but he must limit his mistakes and throw the ball more accurately on shorter routes. He’s up against a good defense and a coach that will really make this game difficult on him. One guy who could really help Mettenberger is rookie RB Bishop Sankey (357 rush yards, 1 TD).

Sankey has seen an increase in carries recently, but he has not yet exploded for a 100-yard game. He’s got to make more out of his touches going forward and the Titans will need to do a better job of getting him involved in the passing game as well. Defensively, this team has not been bad against the pass. They’re allowing just 232.1 passing yards per game (11th in NFL) and they’ll need to keep that up with their matchup against one of the hottest quarterbacks in football. Stopping the run has likely been their focus during the practice week, however, as they’re facing an elite rusher in Le’Veon Bell.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 11

November 15, 2014


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Eagles are 11-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since 1991 as a road dog after scoring 34+ points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The 49ers are 0-11-1 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since 2003 when they are off a game in which they led by at least a TD after the first quarter, but allowed 20-plus points.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since October 28, 2012 at home after a game in which Brandon Marshall had at least 6 receptions.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-8 ATS when facing a divisional opponent with the same number of wins and losses as them.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams coming off a win as more than a three-point dog where they forced at least four turnovers are 105-145-4 OU. Active on Cleveland.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-16 OU (-10.8 ppg) since December 25, 2006 when they scored more than 15 points more than expected last game.

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SuperContest Picks - Week 11

November 15, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 11 Picks (# of Selections)

1) New England +3 (498)
2) Kansas City -1.5 (418)
3) Green Bay -6 (397)
4) Cleveland -3 (395)
5) Detroit +2.5 (380)

Week 10 Results

1) Detroit -2.5 (551) WIN
2) Green Bay -7 (443) WIN
3) New Orleans -5 (423) LOSS
4) Kansas City -2 (396) WIN
5) N.Y. Jets +5 (394) WIN

Week 9 Results

1) Arizona (+3.5) - WIN
2) San Diego (+1.5) - LOSS
3) Philadelphia (-2) - WIN
4) New England (+3) - WIN
5) Baltimore (-1) - LOSS

Week 8 Results

1) Indianapolis (-3) - LOSS
2) Kansas City (-6.5) - WIN
3) Houston (-2) - WIN
4) Baltimore (+1) - LOSS
5) New Orleans (-1.5) - WIN

Week 7 Results

1) Kansas City (+4.5) - WIN
2) Indianapolis (-3) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants (+6.5) - LOSS
4) Seattle (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (-6.5) - WIN

Week 6 Results

1) Miami (+3.5) - WIN
2) N.Y. Giants (+3) - LOSS
3) Buffalo (+3) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-7) - LOSS
5) Denver (-8.5) - WIN

Week 5 Results

1) Denver (-7) - WIN
2) Baltimore (+3.5) - LOSS
3) Cincinnati (-1) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-6.5) - WIN
5) Chicago (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay (-1.5) - WIN
2) Kansas City (+3.5) - WIN
3) Atlanta (-3) - LOSS
4) Philadelphia (+5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SUPERCONTEST WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 3-2 13-7 65%
5 2-3 15-10 60%
6 2-3 17-13 57%
7 3-2 20-15 57%
8 3-2 23-17 58%
9 3-2 26-19 57%
10 4-1 30-20 60%
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

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Total Talk - Week 11

November 15, 2014

Week 10 Recap

Last week in the NFL was your typical roller coaster ride for total bettors. Including Thursday’s outcome between the Browns and Bengals, the ‘under’ produced a 6-2 mark in the first eight games. For arguments sake, it could’ve been 8-0 if the Jaguars don’t punch in a meaningless score against the Cowboys and the Saints-49ers game avoids overtime.

The bookmakers couldn’t have been happy with those backdoor results and they certainly could’ve been smiling with the final five games in Week 10.

The ‘over’ cashed in all five and the favorites covered the number in each game as well, which is never a good thing for the fellas on the other side of the counter. Through 10 weeks of the season, the ‘over’ has gone 77-69-1.

Streaks to Watch

I’ve learned that you should never bet against a hot streak and have been told on occasion that you should ride them until they lose. With that being said, we have nine teams with solid total streaks pending for Sunday.

The only matchup where something will have to give is the Houston-Cleveland game where pending results collide.

Broncos: OVER 6-0
Packers: OVER 6-0
Patriots: OVER 6-0
Chiefs: UNDER 5-0
Falcons: UNDER 5-0
Browns: UNDER 5-0
Texans: OVER 4-0
Buccaneers: UNDER 3-0
Giants: OVER 3-0

Broncos fit Road Angle

In last week’s Total Talk installment, I touched on a total system that has produced solid profits for bettors for past seasons and it’s very simple to follow.

Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

Last Sunday, the Rams were playing their third straight game as visitors when they visited Cardinals. I thought St. Louis would be able to score and it did hold a 14-10 lead at halftime. Unfortunately the offense was jammed up in the second-half but the Arizona defense answered the bell with 14 late points. The Cardinals won 31-14 and the game went ‘over’ the closing number of 43.

Including last week’s result, this angle has seen the ‘over’ go 37-15-2 (71%) the past 10 seasons and that includes a 2-0 record this season. The first result occurred in Week 5 between the Buccaneers and Saints.

This week, Denver will be playing its third straight road game when it visits St. Louis. This total is hovering between 50 and 51 points and it’s safe to say that we all know what the Broncos can do offensively. However, the Rams will be starting Shaun Hill at quarterback on Sunday and he’s not a quality NFL quarterback.

This system will come into play one more time in Week 13 when Cincinnati visits Tampa Bay.

Divisional Games

Only three divisional matchups on tap this week and two of them will have teams meeting for the first time.


Minnesota at Chicago: The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Atlanta at Carolina: The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season but was on a 3-0 run prior to those results.

Oakland at San Diego: In Week 6, the Raiders played arguably their best game of the season and still lost to the Chargers 31-28 at home. The game easily went ‘over’ (44) the number yet this week’s total is in the same neighborhood. That right there tells me to come back with the ‘under’ and I expect a better effort from the Chargers. Since winning that game, San Diego has gone 0-3 while getting outscored 95-41. Bolts are off the bye and they should be prepared for this game.

Big Easy System

For the fifth consecutive week, the “Thursday Night” total system connected and last week’s outcome was just as easy as the previous two weeks.

What’s the system?

All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

In Week 9, Carolina hosted New Orleans at home on Thursday. This past Monday, the Panthers visited the Eagles and the system called for a lean on the ‘over’ (48). Philadelphia captured a 45-21 win and those playing the ‘over’ were all smiles – again.

Dating back to last season, the ‘over’ has gone 22-3-1 (88%) in these situations and that includes a 7-1 (88%) record this season.

This week the angle takes us to the “Big Easy” as Cincinnati meets New Orleans from the Superdome since the Bengals played the Browns last Thursday at home.

I thought this total (50 ½) would be a little higher based on some key injuries to both defensive units and the Saints have the ability to light up anybody at home.

However, Cincinnati’s offensive line is banged up and the loss of RB Giovani Bernard is apparently a bigger loss than expected. Also, it’s hard to ignore the fact that QB Andy Dalton has managed to only score 40 points in three road games this season.

It should be noted that this will be the first of three straight games against AFC North opponents for New Orleans. The Saints have watched the ‘over’ go 5-0 in their last five non-conference matchups, which includes a 26-24 loss (Over 49) at Cleveland in Week 2.

Under the Lights

Just when I thought that we would see some ‘under’ tickets begin to cash, the Sunday and Monday night outcomes saw the scoreboard get lit up respectively for 69 and 66 points in Week 10.

Including Thursday’s ‘under’ result between the Dolphins and Bills, the ‘over’ has gone 24-8 (75%) in night games this season. The best outcome has occurred on SNF with a 9-1 (90%) mark and another shootout is expected in this spot on Sunday.

New England at Indianapolis: Oddsmakers opened this game 56 and it’s already spiked as high as 58 at some betting shops, which is the highest total posted this season. The last five meetings between these teams have gone ‘over’ and since QB Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis, the Patriots have blasted the Colts 59-24 in 2012 and 43-22 in last year’s playoffs, both games played in New England. The Colts are at home for this game and their offense is ranked first in points (32.2 PPG) and yards (451.2). New England isn’t far behind in either category (31.2 PPG, 367 YPG). If these attacks show up and their current form continues, I don’t see the ‘over’ losing. However, Indy’s defense is only allowing 15 PPG at home this season and New England’s pass defense keeps everything in front of them. It’s a high number and while doable, it’s still a pass for me.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee: This total is hovering between 46 and 47 points and it’s hard to justify a play on the ‘over’ when you look at the Titans. Offensively, they look lost and last week’s 7-point effort against Baltimore was tied for the lowest of the season. The one stat that could have me leaning ‘over’ in this spot is Pittsburgh’s performances in late games. The Steelers have gone 4-1 both SU and ATS in contests not played at 1:00 p.m. ET and they’ve scored 37, 30, 51 and 43 points. For whatever reason, Big Ben and company like the spotlight. Despite not being in the same division, these teams have met the last six seasons and the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3. Last year, Tennessee dropped Pittsburgh 16-9 as a six-point road underdog in Week 1.

Fearless Predictions

Does luck play a factor in sports betting? After watching Arizona’s defense score back-to-back touchdowns in the final minutes of their win last week, I’d answer yes. Those 14 points helped me cash ‘over’ tickets and finally, yes finally, put me in the black ($70). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Tennessee 47

Best Under: Oakland-San Diego 45

Best Team Total: Saints Over 29

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Bengals-Saints 42.5
Under Raiders-Chargers 54
Under Patriots-Colts 66.5

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Week 11 Tip Sheet

November 15, 2014

Texans at Browns (-3 ½, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 10 Recap:
-- Houston went through the bye week after falling short at home in Week 9 to Philadelphia, 31-21 as 1 ½-point underdogs. The Texans have dropped four of their past five games following a 2-1 start, as Houston’s defense allowed nearly 500 yards to Philadelphia.
-- The Browns put together a dominating performance in front of a nationally televised audience last Thursday night, ripping the rival Bengals, 24-3 as 6 ½-point underdogs for their third straight win. During this hot streak, Cleveland has allowed just 23 points, as the Browns yielded 165 yards to the Bengals in their first win at Paul Brown Stadium since 2008.

Previous meeting: These teams last hooked up in 2011 as the Texans cruised past the Browns, 30-12 as 10 ½-point home favorites. Houston rushed for 261 yards in that victory, including 124 yards and a touchdown from Arian Foster, who will sit out Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury.

What to watch for: Both clubs are going in different directions as far as totals runs go, as the Texans are riding a four-game ‘over’ streak, while the Browns have hit the ‘under’ in five straight contests. Cleveland is 4-1 at home this season, but the Browns are just 2-2-1 ATS in the favorite role.

Seahawks at Chiefs (-1, 42) – 1:00 PM EST

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Week 10 Recap:
-- Seattle has rebounded from a brief two-game skid as the defending champs have won three straight contests. The Seahawks rallied to beat the Giants, 38-17 behind four rushing touchdowns from Marshawn Lynch as Seattle cashed as nine-point favorites. Pete Carroll’s team covered for the first time in five games, in spite of Russell Wilson throwing two interceptions in the victory.
-- The Chiefs won their fourth straight contest and put an 0-2 start in the rear view mirror. Kansas City erased a 13-3 deficit to shock Buffalo, 17-13 with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns. Andy Reid’s club is the hottest ATS team in the league, covering in seven of the past eight games since an opening week loss to Tennessee.

Previous meeting: Kansas City dominated Seattle at CenturyLink Field 42-24 in November of 2010, as Jamaal Charles rushed for 173 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks are making their first trip to Arrowhead Stadium since 2006, when the Chiefs won 35-28 as four-point favorites.

What to watch for: The Chiefs’ defense has stepped up during this hot stretch, cashing five straight ‘unders,’ while limiting opponents to 30 points in the past three games combined. The Seahawks have covered just once in four games away from the Pacific Northwest this season, as Seattle is listed as a road favorite for the first time since last December at San Francisco in a two-point loss.

Bengals at Saints (-7, 50 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 10 Recap:
-- The Bengals have gone backwards since a 3-0 start, stumbling to a 2-3-1 record in the past six games. Cincinnati was run out quickly at home by Cleveland last Thursday, 24-3, falling to 1-4-1 ATS during this cold stretch, as Andy Dalton threw three interceptions in the defeat.
-- The Saints are coming off their first home loss since 2012, dropping a 27-24 overtime decision to the 49ers as six-point favorites. Drew Brees tossed three touchdown passes in the defeat, as New Orleans had its 11-game winning streak at the Superdome snapped.

Previous meeting: New Orleans won at Cincinnati in 2010 by a 34-30 count as 6 ½-point underdogs. Brees hooked up with Marques Colston for the game-winning touchdown in the final minute, as the Saints blew a 20-6 lead before coming out with the victory. The last time the Bengals visited the Superdome, Cincinnati came out with a 31-16 in 2006 as Brees threw for a career-high 510 yards in the defeat.

What to watch for: All three losses for the Bengals this season have come by at least 21 points, meaning if you like the Saints to win, chances are Cincinnati won’t keep it within the number. The Saints are riding a 5-1 ‘over’ stretch, while winning 10 straight games at home off a loss dating back to 2012.

Lions at Cardinals (-1, 41) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 10 Recap:
-- The Lions managed a last-minute home victory over the Dolphins, 20-16 to barely cover as three-point favorites. Detroit snapped a two-game ATS skid with the cover, as both Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate picked up over 100 yards receiving to give the Lions their third straight win.
Arizona improved to 8-1 with a 31-14 triumph over St. Louis. The Cardinals cashed as seven-point home favorites thanks to a pair of defensive touchdowns in the final five minutes, while Drew Stanton relieved the injured Carson Palmer and hooked up with rookie John Brown for the go-ahead 48-yard touchdown strike.

Previous meeting: Last September, the Cardinals knocked off the Lions as short home underdogs, 25-21. Rashard Mendenhall rushed in the winning touchdown for Arizona with two minutes remaining, while the Cardinals overcame two touchdowns from Johnson, who hauled in 116 yards in the loss.

What to watch for: Life without Palmer begins on Sunday after the former top pick tore his ACL in last week’s win. Stanton won two of three starts in relief of Palmer, including a Week 3 home victory over San Francisco. The Lions have won three straight road games since falling at Carolina in Week 2, while hitting the ‘under’ in seven of the past eight contests.

Eagles at Packers (-5 ½, 54 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 10 Recap:
-- Philadelphia scored a season-high 45 points in a 24-point blowout over Carolina on Monday night. The Eagles improved to 5-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, while Mark Sanchez filled in admirably for the injured Nick Foles by throwing for 332 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The Packers ran out the Bears for the second time this season, 55-14 at Lambeau Field as 9 ½-point favorites. Green Bay cruised to a 42-0 halftime advantage, while Aaron Rodgers burned the Chicago defense for six touchdowns and 315 yards.

Previous meeting: The Eagles dominated the Packers at Lambeau last November, 27-13 as one-point favorites. Rodgers sat out with a broken collarbone as LeSean McCoy ran for 155 yards for Philadelphia, while Riley Cooper hauled in a pair of touchdowns.

What to watch for: Green Bay is 8-1 to the ‘over’ this season, including six straight ‘overs.’ The Packers have won all four home games this season, while scoring at least 31 points in each victory. Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles own an 8-4 record away from Lincoln Financial Field, but the Eagles have compiled a 3-3 ATS record as a road underdog since 2013.

[jt4545]

Thanks and Good Luck

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MNF - Steelers at Titans

November 16, 2014

The AFC playoff race took some wild turns in Week 11 with the Bengals and Chargers bouncing back from losses to pick up key wins, while Kansas City won its fifth in a row to improve to 7-3. The Steelers fell flat against the Jets last week following three consecutive home victories as Pittsburgh tries to stay in the mix with another potential trap at Tennessee on Monday night.

Going back to late in the first half of a Week 7 Monday night matchup against Houston, the Steelers trailed 13-3 and looked lifeless on offense. Something happened in the final 90 seconds of the second quarter, as Pittsburgh found the end zone three times to take a 24-13 lead and held on for a 30-23 victory.

All of the sudden, the offense was energized, as Ben Roethlisberger threw for a career-best 522 yards and six touchdowns the following week in a 51-34 blowout of the Colts as five-point home underdogs. Big Ben followed that effort up with another six-touchdown performance against the rival Ravens in Week 9, as Pittsburgh aired it out in a 43-23 triumph to even their record at 2-2 in the division and improve to 6-3.

Then, the anticipated letdown came last Sunday against of all teams, the Jets. The same Jets that entered play with eight consecutive defeats. New York’s anemic offense jumped out to a 17-0 advantage behind a pair of touchdown passes by Michael Vick, while the Jets’ defense intercepted Roethlisberger twice in a 20-13 upset. Pittsburgh’s running game didn’t do much for the second straight week, piling up just 36 yards on 17 carries.

The Titans seemed destined for big things under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt with an opening week blowout of the Chiefs. Since that 16-point upset, Tennessee has won just once in the past eight games, and that victory wasn’t very impressive, holding off the one-win Jaguars in Week 6 by a 16-14 count. There were several close calls along the way, including the monumental meltdown to the Browns in Week 5, as Tennessee threw away a 28-3 lead in a 29-28 loss to Cleveland.

Last week, Tennessee’s offense produced just one touchdown, a Leon Washington reception from Zach Mettenberger (in what could be a record for letters in a last name TD connection in NFL history) in the first quarter at Baltimore. The Ravens grinded out a 21-7 victory to cash as 10-point home favorites, as the Titans were limited to 210 yards of offense. In two starts, Mettenberger has thrown three touchdown passes and two interceptions, but two of those touchdowns came in a blowout loss to Houston.

The Titans and Steelers opened up the 2013 season at Heinz Field, as Tennessee held off Pittsburgh in a defensive battle, 16-9. Following a safety on the opening kickoff, the Steelers didn’t score again until the fourth quarter. In between, Tennessee kicked three field goals and received a three-yard touchdown run from Jackie Battle to build a 16-2 lead prior to a late Roethlisberger touchdown pass to cut the final deficit to seven. The Titans cashed as six-point underdogs, while snapping Pittsburgh’s 10-game winning streak in home openers.

Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t shined on the highway like it has at Heinz Field, scoring 17 points or less in four of five road games. The only offensive explosion away from the Steel City came in a Week 3 blowout of Carolina, but the Steelers scored 28 of their 37 points in the second half. In fact, Mike Tomlin’s squad has accumulated just 28 total points in the first half of five road games, but scored just one touchdown and kicked seven field goals. The first half total on Monday is listed at 23 ½, which could be a strong look at the ‘under’ considering Tennessee’s offensive troubles along with Pittsburgh’s opening half struggles.

Since the start of last season, the Titans own a dreadful 0-5-1 ATS record as a home underdog, which includes the loss to Houston in Week 8 and a push in the Week 5 meltdown to the Browns as one-point ‘dogs. The last time the Titans covered in the home ‘dog role coincidentally came against the Steelers back in 2012, as Tennessee rallied late to stun Pittsburgh 26-23 in a Thursday night battle as 5 ½-point ‘dogs.

From a totals standpoint, the Steelers have cashed the ‘under’ in four of five road games, while the Titans are 6-3 to the ‘under’ overall this season. Only twice in nine contests has Tennessee eclipsed the 17-point mark, while the Titans have been outgained in six straight games.

Favorites have cashed in five of the past six Monday night games, while road favorites own a 3-1 SU/ATS record in Monday contests this season. The ‘over’ has hit in four of the last five Monday games, as the winning team scored 31 points or more in the four ‘overs.’

The Steelers are listed as six-point favorites at most books, while several outfits have Pittsburgh as 5 ½-point road chalk. The total is hovering between 45 ½ and 46 ½, as game-time temperatures are expected to be in the low 30’s with a 30% chance of snow. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

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Betting Recap - Week 11

November 17, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL WEEK 11 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 5-8
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 7-6
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-10

NFL OVERALL RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 105-54-1
Against the Spread 78-76-4
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 91-66-1
Against the Spread 77-78-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 79-78-3

Biggest Favorite to Cash

In a day where underdogs dominated, Green Bay (-4.5) helped bettors chasing in the late games. The Packers walloped the Eagles 53-20 in wire-to-wire fashion. Bookmakers have been getting beaten up by the infamous Green Bay-Over at Lambeau Field. This combination has gone 4-0-1 this season for bettors.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

The Bengals (+8.5) defeated New Orleans 27-10 as road underdogs. Even though the Saints were 4-5 entering this game, they received a lot of public and sharp support. Cincinnati led 13-3 at halftime and outscored New Orleans 14-3 in the final two quarters. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton took a lot of heat in Week 10 after the club was embarrassed 24-3 at home. In this week’s win, Dalton was 16-of-22 for 220 yards and three touchdowns. Cincinnati was a 3/1 underdog on the money-line.

The Rams (+8) also deserve attention too as they dominated the Broncos 22-7 at home. St. Louis harassed Peyton Manning all day long, sacking him twice and forcing two interceptions. Money-line backers cashed St. Louis as high as plus-375 underdogs.

Home/Away

In the early games, home teams went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS. The lone hosts to cash tickets in the early games were the Bears, Chiefs and Rams.

Despite losing 19-17 at home to Atlanta, the Panthers managed to cover as 2 ½-point home underdogs.

Late games watched the host bounce back with a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark.

Including Thursday’s result, home teams went 7-6 both SU and ATS in the first 13 games.

Not so Sharp

Minnesota received plenty of attention on Sunday morning in its matchup against Chicago. The Vikings opened as four-point road underdogs earlier this week and closed as low as one-point ‘dogs at some shops. Chicago captured a 21-13 win at home.

No Carson, No Problem

Arizona improved to 9-1 on Sunday with a 14-6 win against Detroit. The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS and have covered six straight games for bettors. The loss for Detroit snapped its four-game winning streak.

Hot ant Not

The Chiefs started the season 0-2 and were decimated with injuries. Since the rough start, Kansas City has gone 7-1 both SU and ATS, which includes its 24-20 win over Seattle this week.

Coincidentally, the last team to beat New England was Kansas City. Since that setback, the Patriots have won six in a row (5-1 ATS) and five of those victories came by double digits. The Giants have dropped five straight, both SU and ATS. New York lost 16-10 on Sunday to San Francisco, which was the first setback during this skid that wasn’t decided by double digits.

Dirty South

Atlanta improved to 4-6 on Sunday with a 19-17 road win over Carolina. The Falcons are far from a great team but they are in first place in the NFC South. Atlanta only has four wins but all four came in the division, which is obviously the worst group in the league.

Northern Powers

While the NFC South is horrible, the AFC North could arguably be the best.

Cincinnati 6-3-1
Baltimore 6-4
Pittsburgh 6-4 (Plays Monday at Titans)
Cleveland 6-4

Even though the Bengals are in first, they play four of their final six games on the road.

Still Winless

Oakland fell to 0-10 on Sunday after losing to San Diego 13-6. The Raiders did manage to cover as 10-point road underdogs.

Looking at the schedule, it’s very probably that the Raiders will go 0-16. With three of the final six at home, Oakland will need solid efforts to beat Kansas City, San Francisco or Buffalo.

Totals

The ‘under’ went 7-1 in the first eight games on Sunday afternoon and all of the results were clear cut winners. The late games watched the ‘under’ go 2-1. Including the Bills-Dolphins outcome, the ‘under’ 10-2 in Week 12.

Notable streaks that were extended listed below.

The Browns have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last six games.

Atlanta has seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in its last six.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight for Tampa Bay.

Green Bay has seen the ‘over’ go 9-1 this season, seventh straight ticket cashing this weekend.

The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 in their last seven games. The New England offense is averaging 36.5 PPG during this stretch.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the more interesting college football games this weekend........

-- K-State @ West Virginia-- Better than average Thursday night game.

-- Minnesota @ Nebraska-- Huskers are 11-point favorite that allowed Badgers to run for 581 yards last week; what do you think their practices are like this week?

-- Wisconsin @ Iowa-- Can QB Stave hit some big passes against Hawkeye defense that undoubtedly will focus on RB Gordon.

-- Ole Miss @ Arkansas-- Bielema got SEC monkey off his back last week, now the Rebels come to town with a better offense than LSU's. Interesting game.

-- Arizona @ Utah-- Wildcats find way to win every week; their kicker used to be the manager of the womens' soccer team. He won the Washington game Saturday.

-- USC @ UCLA-- Mora's third year with Bruins, third different USC head coach he is going up against in this rivalry game.

**********


Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Our bottom 5, top 8 in NFL....

32) Raiders-- Oakland has now lost 16 games in row, but are 5-5 vs spread this year. Their last win was at Houston, last home win against the Steelers.

31) Jaguars-- Outscored 46-13 in the first half of last three games; they had bye this week, are 3-1 in last four post-bye games.

30) Jets-- Were outscored 65-21 in last two post-bye games; have winnable game this week in Buffalo. Jets are 3-8-1 in last 12 games as divisional road underdog.

29) Titans-- Only win since season opener was 16-14 over Jaguars. Mettenberger is promising, but three of bottom four on this list are playing rookie QBs.

28) Redskins-- When the head coach starts criticizing the starting QB in the media, there are problems. Either that, or he's not going to be the starter much longer. Making it dicier is fact that they traded a boatload of draft picks to take RGIII. Whoops.

8) Cowboys-- Do broken backs heal in two weeks? Didn't think so. Four of their last six games are divisional games- they also play the Colts. Dallas lost three of its last four post-bye games.

7) Chiefs-- Won last five games, three by 4 or less points. Scored 30.8 ppg in winning last four home games, after losing season opener to Tennessee.

6) Colts-- Got pushed around by Patriots Sunday night; they're only 6-4, one game up on the Texans in AFC South. Finish with three road games in last four weeks.

5) Seahawks-- You get feeling they're not enjoying their season too much; Pat Riley calls it "The Disease of Me" when everyone takes credit for the team's success, when it shouldn't matter who gets the credit. They need Marshawn Lynch, but he seems like a royal pain in the butt at times.

4) Broncos-- Averaging 34.6 ppg at home, where they play this week for first time in four weeks. They brought Richie Incognito in for a reason; they need help on the OL to protect their QB, who is immobile. they didn't sign him, but it was a signal they're not comfortable with their OL.

3) Packers-- On serious roll right now; they're crushing teams at home. Their game in two weeks with New England could be interesting; later they visit Buffalo/Tampa in consecutive weeks, an interesting weather contrast.

2) Patriots-- Healthy Gronkowski turned their offense into a steamroller; in their last three games, they scored 51-43-42 points. Right now they'd be #1 seed in AFC- only team within game of New England are the Chiefs, who own tie-breakers with Pats.

1) Cardinals-- How in God's name is this team getting 6.5 points in Seattle this week, when they're 9-1? Stanton is as good as Palmer, but public perception is against them because they're not a popular team. This should be a good game.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Opening Line Report: Books careful with Lions-Patriots in Week 12

Week 12 of the NFL season pits the top team in the AFC against one of the better teams in the NFC, with the New England Patriots playing host to the Detroit Lions.

New England (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is on a tear, winning six in a row SU while cashing in five of those contests. On Sunday night, the Patriots went into Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs and emerged with a 42-20 beatdown victory. Of the six wins during their current run, five have been by at least 15 points.

Meanwhile, Detroit (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) couldn’t get its offense on track at Arizona, losing 14-6 as a 1-point road favorite, ending a four-game SU win streak and a 6-1 SU surge.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, said he and his staff were hesitant to quickly release the point spread for this game Monday morning, eventually putting New England up as a 7-point favorite in the afternoon.

“When the Pats are running this hot, we’re going to have a lot of one-sided action on their games,” Lester said before opening the spread at a touchdown. “I’d like to open this at the key number or higher, but I’m getting a little resistance from the room, so we will see where the dust settles. The Lions are a little bit of fool’s gold, but I do like what they’ve been able to accomplish defensively. Jim Caldwell is no stranger to game-planning for New England either.”

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Red-hot Arizona has a chance to put a stranglehold on the NFC West. The Cardinals (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) have won six in a row SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 14-6 home victory as a 1-point pup against a solid Detroit Lions squad.

Seattle (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) is in a tight spot, needing to pile up wins if it hopes for a return playoff trip and a chance to defend its Super Bowl title. The Seahawks fell short at Kansas City 24-20 laying one point Sunday.

“I never would’ve thought going into this season that the Cardinals could lose this game and still be well in control of first place in the NFC West,” Lester said. “Let’s not forget that they came to Seattle last year and won. We know that the Seahawks are struggling to find their identity, and I think Arizona can keep it close in a low-scoring affair.”

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-8)

After bouncing from New England to Oakland to St. Louis, the Broncos (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) finally return home, but in worse shape than when they left. Denver was the top team in the AFC a month ago, then went 1-2 SU and ATS the past three weeks, including Sunday’s stunning 22-7 loss at St. Louis as an 8-point favorite – with the Broncos suffering key injuries (Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders).

Miami (6-4 SU and ATS) enters with a little extra rest and in the thick of the AFC playoff chase, after a 22-9 victory over Buffalo as 4-point home chalk Thursday night. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five outings.

“We probably should have opened this at a touchdown because sharps gobbled up the -8 quickly,” Lester said. “As is the case almost every week, squares will be lining up to tease down Denver, and they’ll be eager to try and get some back after last Sunday’s upset. I’m still in the camp that doesn’t completely trust (Dolphins quarterback) Ryan Tannehill to not make the big mistake.”

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Both these teams need to start racking up wins, with Baltimore in the middle of a tight AFC North race and New Orleans leading a pack of the pathetic in the NFC South, where every team has a losing record.

The Saints, (4-6 SU and ATS), 8.5-point home chalk against Cincinnati, were dealt a stunning 27-10 loss Sunday. The Ravens (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 21-7 win over Tennessee laying 10.5 points at home.

This game wraps up Week 12, under the Monday night spotlight.

“I haven’t been sold on Baltimore from the get-go, and I’m still not,” Lester said. “Despite New Orleans’ struggles, I wanted to make this number a point higher. When the bright lights of prime time come on, the Saints always seem to show up. I expect the total to elevate; we can’t set these nationally-televised games high enough.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Wait until closer to kickoff before backing Bills

Spread to bet now

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants

Die hard football Giants fans are dreaming of yet another November-December run to the playoffs. They look at a schedule that after this game includes four straight against teams with losing records and wonder if Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have any magic beans left in their pockets. That's unlikely, and the Cowboys will probably deliver the wooden stake in the Giants' hearts this Sunday in East Rutherford. The ‘Boys, who are the only undefeated (4-0) team on the road this season, opened at -3 and the public has been jumping on them in early betting. It’s doubtful that the sharps will come in late on this one even if the number moves to 3.5. Dallas needs this one to keep pace with Philadelphia in the NFC East.

Spread to wait on

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4.5)

The Jets are long gone and out of things, but they haven’t packed it in as evidenced by their unlikely win over the white-hot Steelers a week ago. New York forced four turnovers in that game, and has had a week off to get ready for the 5-5 Bills. The extra half-point in this one makes it a hard swallow for backers on the Bills. Buffalo crushed the Jets in late October, but the Bills haven’t won since then, losing twice (KC, Miami) in five days. It’s in the Jets’ interest to turn this one into a taffy pull, so the fraction of a point could be very important. Hang on to see if the number changes before pulling the trigger.

Total to watch

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (50)

Think Peyton Manning will want to fire the ball all over Mile High after being on the road for the last month, getting stuffed by a mediocre St. Louis team and taking two losses in the last three games? And if all that’s not bad enough, say hello to the Chiefs, who have tied the Broncos in the AFC West at 7-3 and get Denver at home on Nov. 30. Denver’s defense has been exposed over the last three weeks, and the Dolphins themselves aren’t half bad when they have the ball. Looks like a lot of points on the way here as the last thing Denver wants to do is grind it out and give Miami a chance to make it a fourth quarter game.

[StarDust Bum]

Chiefs, Pats help bettors

November 17, 2014

LAS VEGAS – When the Denver Broncos lose straight-up as one of the biggest favorites on the betting board, and three underdogs become chalk but do not cover the closing numbers, it should be a good day for the sportsbooks. But at The Wynn, all it took was big losses on two games to negate most of the rest of the wins in Sunday’s Week 11 NFL action.

The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots are to blame for an “okay” day, according to Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations. The Chiefs opened as 1.5-point home favorites and closed -1.5 at The Wynn while other sportsbooks around town made them 1-point underdogs against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who lost the game, 24-20.

“We were just buried with Kansas City money,” Avello said. “That’s two weeks in a row where Kansas City’s really hurt me. Last week, they played Buffalo and it didn’t kick the field goal, and this week Pete Carroll didn’t kick the field goal. Both times they escaped, and it cost me.”

The other game was the Sunday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots have been money as underdogs lately and came through yet again against the Colts, improving to 4-0 against the spread in that situation this season with a 42-20 victory. Indianapolis opened -2.5 (-120) at The Wynn and closed -3 (-105), with bettors backing New England.

“That absolutely killed,” Avello said of the Patriots covering the spread. “Those two games really hurt us a lot. We won some games too, but those two games were our two biggest decisions, and we lost them both. The Cleveland game was good for us, the Bear game was good for us and the Packer game was good for us. But those two games were really bad. We won three, lost two big ones, and then the others we just kind of ground out some money like the Bronco game, we killed some teasers there.

“It could have been a lot better. We got absolutely buried on two games.”

To make matters worse for Avello, the total went OVER in the Sunday Night Football game for the 10th time in 11 weeks. The public generally likes playing primetime games OVER, and Sunday was no different. “We closed that game 59 last night, (opened) 57.5 to 59, that was more insult to injury already,” Avello said. “If it would have stayed under, it wouldn’t have been as bad. We’re adjusting, (but) you open up a total at 57.5 on Sunday night between these two teams, that’s about as high as you can go.”

One team that actually helped The Wynn was the NFC-leading Arizona Cardinals, who defeated the Detroit Lions 14-6 despite closing as 1.5-point home underdogs. The Cardinals had opened -1.5, but bettors put their money on the Lions thinking Arizona’s luck might run out with Drew Stanton back starting at quarterback after Carson Palmer suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Still, Avello was not overly impressed with Stanton’s performance and thinks the Cardinals have a tough road ahead of them. They visit the Seahawks in Week 12, starting a very difficult stretch of four road games over the final six weeks of the regular season, which also includes trips to Atlanta, St. Louis and San Francisco.

“The Arizona team is perfect at home at 6-0,” Avello said. “(But) I still have a lot of questions marks about them with Stanton at quarterback. The first two possessions he was real good, but then after that he was dead. If they win that game at Seattle, I will be a true believer at that point even though Seattle’s not the same team. They could lose their next six, it’s very possible.

“As a matter of fact, I’ll say out of those next six games, they’re going to lose four. Every game they’re going to play for the rest of the year, (for) the team they’re playing, it’s going to really mean something.”

[StarDust Bum]

Raiders look for 1st win

November 19, 2014


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-3) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (0-10)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Kansas City -7, Total: 43

The Raiders look to earn their first victory of the season when they host the red-hot Chiefs on Thursday night.

Kansas City outlasted the Seahawks 24-20 last week as a 1-point home favorite, giving the club five straight victories (SU and ATS) and seven wins in the past eight contests (SU and ATS). Meanwhile Oakland failed to score more than 17 points for the fourth time in five games in a 13-6 loss at San Diego, but did cover the spread as a 10-point underdog.

The last time the Chiefs visited Oakland, Jamaal Charles racked up 215 yards from scrimmage and five total touchdowns in a 56-31 victory. Kansas City is 9-2 SU and ATS in its past 11 meetings in Oakland. In fact, the road team is 18-4 ATS in this head-to-head series dating back to the start of the 2003 season.

While the Chiefs are one of only two NFL teams allowing an average of 17.5 or fewer points per game, the Raiders are one of only three offenses in the league scoring an average of 17 or fewer points per contest. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game over the last two years and 11-3 ATS in road games during that span. They are, however, just 8-26 ATS in road games after gaining 175+ rushing yards in their previous game since 1992.

Both teams have several players on the injury list, with the most notables being WR Donnie Avery (groin), WR A.J. Jenkins (shoulder), TE Anthony Fasano (knee), CB Chris Owens (knee) and CB Jamell Fleming (hamstring), who are is questionable for Kansas City.

For Oakland, four questionable players that stand out are CB Carlos Rogers (knee), S Jonathan Dowling (back), TE David Ausberry (foot) and G Gabe Jackson (knee). The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams and football and it’s largely due to the play of their defense. They are the best team in the league at defending air attacks, allowing just 201.6 passing yards per game. They should have no trouble making things extremely difficult on Derek Carr.

Offensively, QB Alex Smith (1,977 pass yards, 11 TD, 4 INT) continues to win games despite not having the arm that many other quarterbacks in this league have. Smith is a game manager and does an excellent job of doing just that. It’ll take an extremely poor performance for him to allow his team to lose this game to a winless Raiders team.

RB Jamaal Charles (692 rush yards, 8 TD) has been in a groove recently, rushing for seven touchdowns in the past five games. He rushed 20 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Seattle last week and should be able to do something similar against an Oakland defense that is allowing 129.8 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL) this year.

The Raiders went into San Diego last game and kept it close, but they were unable to move the ball against a Chargers defense that is far from being anything special. QB Derek Carr (2,075 pass yards, 13 TD, 9 INT) threw for 172 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in the game, but he did lose a fumble. He’ll need to take care of the ball against a Chiefs defense that will be constantly trying to force turnovers.

The Raiders are really lacking in talent on the offensive side of the ball. TE Mychal Rivera (37 rec, 326 yards, 3 TD) has been their best weapon in the passing game in recent weeks, catching 24 passes for 225 yards and three touchdowns over the past four games. He had three catches for 40 yards on five targets in the loss to San Diego.

Somebody will need to step their game up if this team is going to beat anybody this season, and that somebody will likely be RB Darren McFadden (393 rush yards, 2 TD). McFadden has rushed for just 35 yards on 15 carries over the past two weeks and just doesn’t seem to have any explosiveness this season. Still, the Raiders will need to get their ground game going and he is the only one with a chance of producing there. This defense will need to be ready to stop the run against Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats - Week 12

November 18, 2014

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

With Mississippi State knocked off its perch, the frenzy continues in the drive to stay alive in this year’s college football playoff poll. And with it the question begs: Will a 2-loss team somehow make the playoffs? We’ll know more in a few weeks.

Until then let’s review teams and their season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, November 17th, unless noted otherwise.

OIL AND VINEGAR

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NCAAFB: Hawaii and Utah

NFL: Atlanta and Kansas City

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that still quality on ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, and with the list shortening by the week, here’s this year’s current list.

ALERT – of ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

Play On Dogs: Baylor, Boise State, East Carolina, Georgia Tech, *Marshall, Mississippi State, *Ohio State, TCU, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.

Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, *Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, North Carolina, *SMU, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

Important: An *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

This week we find Western Michigan in the ‘Play On’ dog list, with no teams appearing on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.

GOING INSIDE THE STATS

These are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Note – there are no plays in the NFL.

This week includes:

NCAAFB: Hawaii

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NCAAFB: San Jose State

FYI: There is one game on the college card this week that finds one team off an ‘inside-out’ SU win/Stat loss taking on a foe off a SU loss/Stat win – Duke versus North Carolina.

TRENDING IN THE NFL THIS WEEK

The Atlanta Falcons are 1-10 SU and ATS in the first of back-to-back home games versus a winning opponent.

The Baltimore Ravens are 7-1 SU and ATS on Monday Nights versus NFC opponents.

Dallas is 0-6 SU and ATS when favored versus a division opponents playing with triple revenge-exact (from losses in last three meetings), and also 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on Sunday nights versus an opponent off a pair of SU losses.

The Houston Texans are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five meetings with the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-11 ATS as favorites in the first of back-to-back division games.

The New York Giants are 8-1 SU and ATS on Sunday nights off a pair of SU losses.

STAT OF THE WEEK

The Buffalo Bills are 2-17 SU and 1-18 ATS in games after playing the Miami Dolphins when facing an opponent off a SU win.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 12

November 19, 2014


THURSDAY, NOV. 20

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND...KC 9-0 vs. line last nine TY and Andy Reid now 12-1 vs. spread as reg season visitor since arriving at Chiefs LY. KC 9-2 vs. number last 11 at Oakland. "Unders" 5-1-1 last seven meetings. Chiefs and "under," based on team and series trends.


SUNDAY, NOV. 23

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CLEVELAND at ATLANTA...Browns 3-1 vs. line away TY and five straight "unders" TY. Falcs haven't played at home since Oct. 12. They're 4-2 vs. line last six as host. Slight to "under," based on recent Browns "totals" trends.

TENNESSEE at PHILADELPHIA...Even after cover vs. Steelers last Monday, Titans just 2-7 vs. spread last nine on board since opening win at Chiefs. Birds 3-0-1 vs. line at Linc TY, 5-0-1 vs. spread last six reg season at Linc. Eagles, based on team trends.

DETROIT at NEW ENGLAND..."Totals" clash as Lions "under" 8-1-1 in 2014 and 12-1-1 last 14 since late 2013. But Patriots "over" last seven TY and "over" 52-21-1 in reg season since beginning of 2010. Lions 2-3 vs. line away, 8-17-1 vs. line last 26 away. Belichick 10-4 vs. spread last 14 at Gillette Stadium. "Over" and slight to Patriots, based on Belichick trends.

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA...Last three and seven of last eight in series with Minnesota as host have gone "over." Pack "over" 9-1 TY, now "over" 12-1 last 13 reg. season games. "Over," based on series and Pack "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS...Indy has won and covered big last four meetings, no win by fewer than 17. Indy "over" 9-2-1 last 12 on board. Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

CINCINNATI at HOUSTON...Bengals 2-5 vs. line last seven TY and 4-8-1 vs. spread last 13 away from Paul Brown since 2012 wild card game here at Houston. Slight to Texans, based on recent trends.

NY JETS at BUFFALO...Bills on 2-6 spread run after loss to Dolphins. Bills "under" 8-2 TY though first meeting went way "over" at MetLife. "Under" and Jets, based on bills 'totals" trends.

TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO...Bucs covers last 4 on road, and visiting team 9-1 vs. line in TB games this season. Bears 2-10-2 vs. line last 14 as host. Trestman "over" 17-8-1 since LY. Bucs and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
ARIZONA at SEATTLE...Cards 15-3-1 vs. line since mid 2013. Hawks 1-5 vs. line last six. Arians 9-4 as dog with Cards. Cards, based on recent trends.

ST. LOUIS at SAN DIEGO...Rams only 2-5-1 vs. line last eight away. Also 8-12-1 last 21 as dog. No back-to-back covers TY. Bolts no covers last 5 TY but were 10-1 vs. line in previous 11. Slight to Chargers, based on extended trends.

MIAMI at DENVER...Broncos 27-15 vs. line in reg season since 2012. Also "over" 6-1 last 7 TY and "over" 51-27-1 since late in 2009. Dolphins 4-1-1 vs. line last six TY. Broncos and "over," based on Bronco trends.

WASHINGTON at SAN FRANCISCO...Skins 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY, 8-18 last 26 on board. Niners "under" last three at home and "under' 8-3 last 11 as host. Tech edge-49ers and "under," based on team and "totals" trends. "Over," based on "totals"
trends.

DALLAS at NY GIANTS...Dallas has won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series. "Overs" last four meetings. NYG no covers last 4 as home dog. Dallas 4-0 vs. line away TY. Cowboys and "over," based on team and series trend.



MONDAY, NOV. 24

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BALTIMORE at NEW ORLEANS ...Saints just 1-3 vs. line last four at Superdome. But Ravens no covers last three away, and 2-6-1 last nine vs. spread as visitor. Saints "over" 6-3-1 this season. Saints and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


TEAMS ON BYE - WEEK 12

Carolina Panthers Pittsburgh Steelers