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NFL Opening Line Report: Books careful with Lions-Patriots in Week 12
Week 12 of the NFL season pits the top team in the AFC against one of the better teams in the NFC, with the New England Patriots playing host to the Detroit Lions.
New England (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is on a tear, winning six in a row SU while cashing in five of those contests. On Sunday night, the Patriots went into Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs and emerged with a 42-20 beatdown victory. Of the six wins during their current run, five have been by at least 15 points.
Meanwhile, Detroit (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) couldn’t get its offense on track at Arizona, losing 14-6 as a 1-point road favorite, ending a four-game SU win streak and a 6-1 SU surge.
John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, said he and his staff were hesitant to quickly release the point spread for this game Monday morning, eventually putting New England up as a 7-point favorite in the afternoon.
“When the Pats are running this hot, we’re going to have a lot of one-sided action on their games,” Lester said before opening the spread at a touchdown. “I’d like to open this at the key number or higher, but I’m getting a little resistance from the room, so we will see where the dust settles. The Lions are a little bit of fool’s gold, but I do like what they’ve been able to accomplish defensively. Jim Caldwell is no stranger to game-planning for New England either.”
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Red-hot Arizona has a chance to put a stranglehold on the NFC West. The Cardinals (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) have won six in a row SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 14-6 home victory as a 1-point pup against a solid Detroit Lions squad.
Seattle (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) is in a tight spot, needing to pile up wins if it hopes for a return playoff trip and a chance to defend its Super Bowl title. The Seahawks fell short at Kansas City 24-20 laying one point Sunday.
“I never would’ve thought going into this season that the Cardinals could lose this game and still be well in control of first place in the NFC West,” Lester said. “Let’s not forget that they came to Seattle last year and won. We know that the Seahawks are struggling to find their identity, and I think Arizona can keep it close in a low-scoring affair.”
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-8)
After bouncing from New England to Oakland to St. Louis, the Broncos (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) finally return home, but in worse shape than when they left. Denver was the top team in the AFC a month ago, then went 1-2 SU and ATS the past three weeks, including Sunday’s stunning 22-7 loss at St. Louis as an 8-point favorite – with the Broncos suffering key injuries (Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders).
Miami (6-4 SU and ATS) enters with a little extra rest and in the thick of the AFC playoff chase, after a 22-9 victory over Buffalo as 4-point home chalk Thursday night. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five outings.
“We probably should have opened this at a touchdown because sharps gobbled up the -8 quickly,” Lester said. “As is the case almost every week, squares will be lining up to tease down Denver, and they’ll be eager to try and get some back after last Sunday’s upset. I’m still in the camp that doesn’t completely trust (Dolphins quarterback) Ryan Tannehill to not make the big mistake.”
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Both these teams need to start racking up wins, with Baltimore in the middle of a tight AFC North race and New Orleans leading a pack of the pathetic in the NFC South, where every team has a losing record.
The Saints, (4-6 SU and ATS), 8.5-point home chalk against Cincinnati, were dealt a stunning 27-10 loss Sunday. The Ravens (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 21-7 win over Tennessee laying 10.5 points at home.
This game wraps up Week 12, under the Monday night spotlight.
“I haven’t been sold on Baltimore from the get-go, and I’m still not,” Lester said. “Despite New Orleans’ struggles, I wanted to make this number a point higher. When the bright lights of prime time come on, the Saints always seem to show up. I expect the total to elevate; we can’t set these nationally-televised games high enough.”
Week 12 of the NFL season pits the top team in the AFC against one of the better teams in the NFC, with the New England Patriots playing host to the Detroit Lions.
New England (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is on a tear, winning six in a row SU while cashing in five of those contests. On Sunday night, the Patriots went into Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs and emerged with a 42-20 beatdown victory. Of the six wins during their current run, five have been by at least 15 points.
Meanwhile, Detroit (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) couldn’t get its offense on track at Arizona, losing 14-6 as a 1-point road favorite, ending a four-game SU win streak and a 6-1 SU surge.
John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, said he and his staff were hesitant to quickly release the point spread for this game Monday morning, eventually putting New England up as a 7-point favorite in the afternoon.
“When the Pats are running this hot, we’re going to have a lot of one-sided action on their games,” Lester said before opening the spread at a touchdown. “I’d like to open this at the key number or higher, but I’m getting a little resistance from the room, so we will see where the dust settles. The Lions are a little bit of fool’s gold, but I do like what they’ve been able to accomplish defensively. Jim Caldwell is no stranger to game-planning for New England either.”
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Red-hot Arizona has a chance to put a stranglehold on the NFC West. The Cardinals (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) have won six in a row SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 14-6 home victory as a 1-point pup against a solid Detroit Lions squad.
Seattle (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) is in a tight spot, needing to pile up wins if it hopes for a return playoff trip and a chance to defend its Super Bowl title. The Seahawks fell short at Kansas City 24-20 laying one point Sunday.
“I never would’ve thought going into this season that the Cardinals could lose this game and still be well in control of first place in the NFC West,” Lester said. “Let’s not forget that they came to Seattle last year and won. We know that the Seahawks are struggling to find their identity, and I think Arizona can keep it close in a low-scoring affair.”
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-8)
After bouncing from New England to Oakland to St. Louis, the Broncos (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) finally return home, but in worse shape than when they left. Denver was the top team in the AFC a month ago, then went 1-2 SU and ATS the past three weeks, including Sunday’s stunning 22-7 loss at St. Louis as an 8-point favorite – with the Broncos suffering key injuries (Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders).
Miami (6-4 SU and ATS) enters with a little extra rest and in the thick of the AFC playoff chase, after a 22-9 victory over Buffalo as 4-point home chalk Thursday night. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five outings.
“We probably should have opened this at a touchdown because sharps gobbled up the -8 quickly,” Lester said. “As is the case almost every week, squares will be lining up to tease down Denver, and they’ll be eager to try and get some back after last Sunday’s upset. I’m still in the camp that doesn’t completely trust (Dolphins quarterback) Ryan Tannehill to not make the big mistake.”
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Both these teams need to start racking up wins, with Baltimore in the middle of a tight AFC North race and New Orleans leading a pack of the pathetic in the NFC South, where every team has a losing record.
The Saints, (4-6 SU and ATS), 8.5-point home chalk against Cincinnati, were dealt a stunning 27-10 loss Sunday. The Ravens (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 21-7 win over Tennessee laying 10.5 points at home.
This game wraps up Week 12, under the Monday night spotlight.
“I haven’t been sold on Baltimore from the get-go, and I’m still not,” Lester said. “Despite New Orleans’ struggles, I wanted to make this number a point higher. When the bright lights of prime time come on, the Saints always seem to show up. I expect the total to elevate; we can’t set these nationally-televised games high enough.”
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