The bum's nfl november's best bets,trends, stats, news etc !

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 13

November 25, 2014

THURSDAY, NOV. 27

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CHICAGO at DETROIT...Lions had lost nine straight on Thanksgiving prior to LY. Detroit 2-5 last 7 vs. line TY and "under" 9-1-1. Trestman "over" 10-4 last 14 away. Slight to Lions, based on series trends.

PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS ...Dallas has won and covered 3 of last 4 vs. Birds. But Cowboys no covers last three on Thanksgiving. Dallas also only 2-4 vs. line at home TY. Birds "over" last four TY and "over" 10-4-1 last 15 reg. season since late 2013. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO...Seahawks 4-0-1 vs. line last five meetings. "Unders" 5-1 last six meetings. 49ers 1-4 vs. line at home TY. "Under" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and series trends.


SUNDAY, NOV. 30

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WASHINGTON at INDIANAPOLIS...Skins 9-18 vs. line since LY. Indy "over" 9-3-1 last 13. Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON...Titans 2-8 vs. line last ten TY. Texans 6-1 vs. line last seven meetings. Texans, based on team trends.

CLEVELAND at BUFFALO...Prior to Jets, Bills only 2-6 vs. line last eight TY and no covers last four at home. Buffalo also "under" 8-2 this season, "under' 6-1 last seven. "Under" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

SAN DIEGO at BALTIMORE...Bolts 12-5-1 last 18 as dog but have now dropped six straight vs. spread. Ravens have covered four straight at home. Ravens, based on recent trends.

NY GIANTS at JACKSONVILLE...G-Men "over" 4-1 on road. Jags 3-10-1 last 14 on board. Slight to Giants, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at TAMPA BAY...Bucs 0-5 vs. spread as host TY, no covers last six at home since late LY. Bengals, based on Bucs home woes.

OAKLAND at ST. LOUIS...Rams 2-3 v. line at home TY, Oakland has covered last 2 on road and 3 of last 4 overall. Raiders, based on team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at PITTSBURGH...Steel "over" last 5 and 8 of last 9 at Heinz Field. Saints "over" 9-2 this season. Host has covered last six Steelers games. "Over" and Steelers, based on "totals" and team trends.

CAROLINA at MINNESOTA...Cam no covers last three TY and 3-6 last nine. Panthers also "over" last four away TY. Vikes 4-1 vs. spread last four TY. Vikings and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at ATLANTA...Cards are 15-4-1 vs. line since mid 2013. Falcs "under" 6-1 last 7. Cards and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NEW ENGLAND at GREEN BAY...Pats "over" 7-1 last 7 TY and 52-22-1 since beginning of 2010. Pack "over" 9-2 this season and 12-2 last 14 in reg, season since late 2013. Belichick 6-4-1 as dog since 2006. "Over" and Patriots, if dog, based on "totals" and team trends.

DENVER at KANSAS CITY...Broncos are "under" 7-1 last eight vs. Chiefs. Broncos have covered 3 of last 4 at Arrowhead. Slight to "under" and Broncos, based on "totals" and trends.


MONDAY, DEC. 1

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MIAMI at NY JETS...Road team has covered five straight in this series. Jets 1-5 vs. line as host this season. Dolphins 6-1-1vs. points last eight in 2014. Dolphins, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Thanksgiving

November 26, 2014


Thanksgiving Day is upon us which means NFL total bettors have three opportunities to cash tickets this Thursday. The past two years, we’ve seen the ‘over’ go 6-0 and five of those games had 50 or more combined points posted. Will the pendulum swing back this season? I’ll try to help answer that question below but make a note that all three matchups this year are divisional battles and I like to believe that familiarity favors defense.

Be sure to check back this weekend as I’ll recap Week 12 and preview the remainder of Week 13. For now, let’s break down the games.

Chicago at Detroit (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)

In the last eight regular season matchups between these teams, the ‘over/under’ has gone 4-4. At Ford Field, the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 during this span.

Last season, the totals were 48 and 52 points. I bring that up because this year’s number opened at 46 ½ and you can see that the oddsmakers have adjusted to both teams, especially the Lions. The Lions have watched the ‘under’ go 9-2 this season and that includes a 5-1 mark at home.

Despite getting humbled at New England last Sunday, Detroit’s defense is allowing 17.3 points per game, which is ranked first in the NFL. Offensively, the Lions have been banged up with key injuries (Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush) all season and the production (17.9 PPG) has seriously dropped. The Lions averaged 24.7 PPG in 2013 and 23.2 PPG in 2012.

Detroit might be able to get things going this week as they face Chicago, who is allowing 27.5 PPG and that number gets worse on the road (31.5 PPG). Also, make a note that the Bears unit had three starters get hurt last Sunday and they’re all listed as ‘questionable’ for Thursday. INJURY REPORT

Chicago enters this game with two straight wins and even though the defense only allowed 13 points in each contest, neither of those victories (Vikings, Bucs) were impressive. Prior to those wins, Chicago gave up 51 and 55 points.

The difference? Brady and Rodgers vs. Bridgewater and McCown. The Lions’ Matthew Stafford falls somewhere in between that quartet and you can also put Jay Cutler into that “middle of the pack” group too.

As many bettors know, Cutler is hit or miss. However, the Bears are averaging more points on the road (23.8 PPG) than at home (18.6 PPG) this season. Those offensive numbers have helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 in Chicago’s first six games on the road.

Philadelphia at Dallas (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Of the three games slated for the holiday, this is the expected shootout. The total opened 54 and has jumped to 55 at most shops and will probably rise more at kickoff.

The Eagles (8-3) and Cowboys (6-4-1) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and those results can be attributed to the offensive units. Philadelphia is averaging 31.1 PPG, ranked third in the league. The Eagles are averaging 72.9 plays per game, which is the fastest pace in the league. Dallas doesn’t push the tempo like Philadelphia (63.3 plays per game) but it’s still averaging 26.5 PPG.

Defensively, Philadelphia is the worst of the two units. The Eagles are allowing 25 PPG and that number creeps up to 30.2 PPG on the road. The pace of the offense doesn’t help the defense at all and neither do the mistakes by the offense. Philadelphia has coughed up the ball a league-worst 27 times this season, which makes you wonder how this team is 8-3. As much as you hear the praise for QB Mark Sanchez, it should be noted that he’s been picked off six times in the four games he’s played.

Turnovers can be either good or bad for total bettors and something you can’t handicap. However, the Eagles’ tendencies make you believe you’ll see at least one on Thursday.

If you look at how Dallas has performed on Thanksgiving Day, it’s certainly hard to make a case for the ‘under’ in this matchup.

Last season the ‘under’ went 2-0 in the two regular season matchups, which included the Eagles’ 24-22 win in Week 17 over the Cowboys. For those of you who forgot, QB Tony Romo sat out that game.

Seattle at San Francisco (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

The NFL really outdid itself by scheduling a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship on Thanksgiving and they’re hoping they can get a repeat performance of that drama-filled matchup. Seattle earned a 23-17 win over San Francisco and the game barely went ‘under’ (40.5) the closing total. The two regular season matchups between the pair also cashed ‘under’ tickets.

CG Technology in Las Vegas opened this week’s matchup at 42 and the pros gobbled (pun intended) that number up and bet it down to 40 quickly. As of Wednesday, the number fell to 39 ½ at some shops.

Playing the ‘under’ in this matchup doesn’t leave you with much wiggle room and if that’s the direction you’re leaning, be prepared to sweat out the full 60 minutes.

Current form is a big part of my handicapping and all signs point to a defensive slugfest. In their last three games, both Seattle (14.7 PPG) and San Francisco (15.7 PPG) have been very solid defensively.

The Seahawks offense is a completely different team on the road (21.4 PPG) than at home (28.7 PPG) this season. San Francisco has been held to 17 points or less in four of its last five games and two of those results came at home. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 at the 49ers new home of Levi’s Stadium.

This will be the ninth season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving. In the first eight matchups, total bettors have seen a stalemate at 4-4. For those wondering, home teams have gone 6-2 during this span.

The Seahawks haven’t played on the holiday since 2008 when they lost 34-9 at Dallas. In 2011, the 49ers lost 16-6 at Baltimore.

Fearless Predictions

As I’ve said before on this holiday, if you’re reading this piece, then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Chicago-Detroit 47

Best Under: Seattle-San Francisco 39 ½

Best Team Total: Under 20 San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 38 Chicago-Detroit
Under 64 Philadelphia-Dallas
Under 48 ½ Seattle-San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Action

November 26, 2014


CHICAGO BEARS (5-6) at DETROIT LIONS (7-4)

TV/Time:CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Detroit -7, Total: 47

The Bears look to win their third straight game when they visit the struggling Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Chicago is coming off a 21-13 home victory over the Buccaneers, which marked its second straight 21-13 win after topping the Vikings by that same score in Week 11. Detroit, meanwhile, has scored just 15 points during a two-game losing skid, falling 34-9 at New England last week. The team is now 1-4 ATS in its past five contests.

Last season, the Lions won-and-covered in both meetings with the Bears, and are 4-2 SU (but only 2-4 ATS) as the host in this series since 2008. This matchup features a Detroit defense that is top-10 in the league at defending the pass going up against Chicago QB Jay Cutler, who can be a turnover machine when he is thrown off his game.

The Lions are 1-10 ATS off a non-conference game over the past three seasons, but get to face a Bears team that is 0-7 ATS after having won two out of its previous three games in the past two seasons.

Chicago is dealing with a slew of defensive injuries with CB Kyle Fuller (knee), LB Lance Briggs (groin), DE Trevor Scott (knee) and LB Darryl Sharpton (hamstring) all listed as questionable for Thursday. After sitting out last week, RB Reggie Bush (ankle) is expected to give it a go for the Lions in this one, but OLs Larry Warford and Riley Reiff are not likely to play due to knee injuries.

The Bears have won two straight games and still have a small chance of making the playoffs, but they’ll need to beat the Lions on Thursday. One player who will need to play well in this game is QB Jay Cutler (2,825 pass yards, 22 TD, 12 INT), who has been excellent against the Lions in recent years. Over the past five seasons, Cutler is 7-4 SU with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions in 11 meetings with the Lions. In his past five trips to Detroit, he has thrown for 266.6 yards per game with nine total touchdowns and just three interceptions. As long as he can limit mistakes, the Bears will have a chance to pull off the upset.

WR Alshon Jeffery (58 rec, 783 yards, 5 TD) has been Cutler’s go-to-guy in recent weeks. Over the past three games, Jeffery has 19 catches for 220 yards and two touchdowns. He should be able to make some plays against a defense that really struggled with the Patriots on Sunday. RB Matt Forte (822 rush yards, 5 TD) has been this team’s best player all season long. Over the past two weeks, he has rushed for 206 yards and two touchdowns while catching 11 passes for 81 yards. The Lions do, however, have the best rushing defense in football and could really give him some trouble on Thursday.

The Lions have really struggled recently and are coming off of an embarrassing 34-9 road loss to the Patriots. This Lions offense has not scored a touchdown in two weeks and will really need QB Matthew Stafford (2,943 pass yards, 13 TD, 10 INT) to break out of his slump. Over the past two weeks, Stafford has thrown two interceptions while not being able to find the end zone.

WR Calvin Johnson (38 rec, 578 yards, 3 TD) has caught just nine passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns during the two-game losing skid. Stafford and Johnson will need to regain the magic they once had in this division game or they could be in danger of missing the playoffs after an impressive start to this season. RB Reggie Bush (191 rush yards, 1 TD) should return for this game, and will add some much-needed explosiveness to this offense. Bush rushed for more than 100 yards in each of the Lions’ two victories over the Bears last season.

Chicago has trouble dealing with his shiftiness and the Lions could really use him back. Defensively this team is still one of the best in the league, but has been lit up for 655 passing yards during the two-game losing skid. Detroit will need to do a better job defending the pass against Chicago.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (8-3)

TV/Time: FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -3, Total: 54.5

Two rivals will fight for the top spot in the NFC East on Thursday when the Eagles visit the Cowboys.

Philadelphia is coming off of a 43-24 victory over the Titans as an 11-point home favorite, making the team 5-2 (SU and ATS) in the past seven games. Meanwhile, Dallas is only 1-3 ATS in its past four contests, but picked up a crucial SU road win over the 4-point underdog Giants last week by a 31-28 score.

These division rivals have not met this season, but the Cowboys have won three of the past four meetings (SU and ATS), with the lone loss coming at home on Dec. 29 last season. Dallas is 3-0 ATS after a road victory and 2-0 ATS after a win by six or less points this season, but is just 14-18 ATS when facing a conference opponent over the past three seasons. Philadelphia has been even worse in the NFC, going 12-19 ATS versus conference opponents in the same span. The Eagles are, however, 23-10 ATS versus excellent offenses (6+ yards per play) in the second half of the season since 1992.

The only new injury for either team is Cowboys DB Tyler Patmon (knee), who is considered questionable for Thursday.

The Eagles are coming off of a blowout victory and RB LeSean McCoy (859 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 3 TD) finally had a breakout game, rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. McCoy had rushed for 88 yards against the Packers the game before and is finally running the ball close to the level he did last season when he led the NFL with 1,607 rushing yards. He should be able to find some holes against this Cowboys defense that he has gained 872 total yards against over nine career meetings.

QB Mark Sanchez (1,187 pass yards, 7 TD, 6 INT) threw for 307 yards and a touchdown against the Titans, but he continues to turn the ball over at an alarming rate. He threw two interceptions in the game and has now tossed six picks in his four games quarterbacking the Eagles. He’ll need to limit his mistakes going forward or he’ll really hold this team back. WR Jordan Matthews (50 rec, 635 yards, 6 TD) is Sanchez’s favorite receiver. He’s been targeted at least eight times in all three of Sanchez’s starts and has delivered with 18 receptions for 322 yards and three touchdowns in those games.

The Eagles’ defense forced three turnovers in the game and also had a kick return touchdown to take a 7-0 lead in the first quarter. Philly has allowed 375.3 total yards per game this season (26th in NFL), including surrendering 266.3 passing YPG (30th in league).

The Cowboys are fresh off a big victory over the Giants and now turn their attention to Thursday's game with huge playoff implications. QB Tony Romo (2,519 pass yards, 22 TD, 6 INT) had one of his best games of the year, throwing for 275 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also led the Cowboys on a game-winning drive, where he connected with WR Dez Bryant (63 rec, 879 yards, 10 TD) on a 13-yard TD pass with just over a minute to go. Bryant finished with seven receptions for 86 yards and two touchdowns in the game, but Romo is the real story for this team as he has now thrown for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in two games since returning from a back injury. Romo has played well in this rivalry, going 8-5 SU as a starter in this series, while throwing for 3,069 yards (236 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 19 TD and 13 INT. Bryant has given the Eagles all kinds of trouble in the past two seasons, as he has caught 25 passes for 394 yards and 4 TD in those four meetings.

Romo and Bryant have lifted this team recently and are providing the touchdowns that the NFL's leading rusher, RB DeMarco Murray (1,354 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 7 TD) is missing in recent weeks. Murray hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7, but he has rushed for at least 100 yards in 10 of 11 games this season. He has not run very well in the past two seasons of this series, gaining only 131 yards on 40 carries (3.3 YPC) with one touchdown and one lost fumble.

This Dallas defense was miserable in the first half against the Giants, allowing 21 points, but the unit did regroup and hold New York to just seven points in the second half. The Cowboys have forced at least one turnover in 10 straight games, and will be looking to force Mark Sanchez into some low percentage throws on Thursday, But they have also allowed 278 passing YPG in the past four games and 7.4 net yards per passing attempt this season (26th in NFL). The run defense has played very well recently though, holding five of the past six opponents to less than 105 rushing yards.

[StarDust Bum]

Thanksgiving Tip Sheet

November 26, 2014

Bears at Lions (-7, 47) – 12:30 PM EST

For the first time since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, no AFC teams are playing on Thanksgiving. The Lions are a staple on Turkey Day, but Detroit has struggled in this showcase contest for a very long time. From 2004-2012, the Lions couldn’t buy a victory on Thanksgiving, losing nine straight times, including eight by double-digits. However, Detroit snapped that dubious skid last November by routing Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, 40-10. Now, the Lions are favored on consecutive Thanksgivings since 1999 and 2000.

Detroit (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) enters Thursday’s action one game behind Green Bay in the NFC North race, as the Lions are coming off consecutive defeats at Arizona and New England. How bad has Detroit’s offense been recently? The Lions haven’t reached the end zone in the past two games, settling for five field goals, while quarterback Matthew Stafford has been intercepted twice with no touchdowns. In last week’s loss to the Patriots, the stout Detroit defense allowed 439 yards, while Tom Brady torched the secondary for 349 yards and two touchdowns.

The Bears (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) were left for dead after getting trounced at New England and Green Bay in back-to-back blowouts, getting outscored, 106-37 to fall to 3-6. However, Chicago has rebounded at home with victories over Minnesota and Tampa Bay to creep closer to the .500 mark. Both wins came by a 21-13 margin at Soldier Field, as Chicago erased a 10-0 deficit in last Sunday’s triumph over Tampa Bay. The Bears racked up just 204 yards of offense, but a pair of Matt Forte touchdowns in the second half gave Chicago only its second two-game winning streak of the season.

Last season, the Lions swept the season series from the Bears for the first time since 2007. Detroit outlasted Chicago in the first matchup last September, 40-32 as three-point home favorites, while Jay Cutler threw a pair of touchdown passes in the final four minutes to make the final look closer. The Lions forced four turnovers, while kicking four field goals and scoring a defensive touchdown.

The second matchup at Soldier Field in November saw less points, as Detroit held on for a 21-19 win as one-point road favorites. Stafford threw three touchdown passes, while Reggie Bush rushed for over 100 yards for the second straight time against Chicago. Bush missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but is listed as questionable for Thursday’s contest.

Coming home is a positive thing for the Lions, who own a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record at Ford Field this season. The lone loss came to the Bills in Week 5 after Detroit blew a 14-0 lead in a 17-14 setback. Since beating the Giants and Packers by double-digits, the last three home games for the Lions have been decided by a total of eight points, including close victories over the Saints and Dolphins.

Chicago began the season not being able to win at home and looking unstoppable on the road. However, those roles have flipped as Marc Trestman’s team has lost three of its past four games on the highway since September wins over the 49ers and Jets. In three road games with totals listed below 50, the Bears have gone ‘over’ each time, while posting a 5-1 ‘over’ record away from Soldier Field this season.

Eagles at Cowboys (-3 ½, 55 ½) – 4:30 PM EST

The two top teams in the NFC East meet for the first time this season with plenty of important circumstances on the line. Philadelphia makes its first trip to Dallas on Thanksgiving since 1989, when the Eagles shut out the Cowboys, 27-0. The Eagles look to make another big impression on Turkey Day with first place on the line as there is no guarantee of this division getting two teams in the playoffs.

Entering Thursday’s action, both the Eagles and Cowboys are 8-3, but the winner of the Seattle/San Francisco matchup improves to 8-4, as the Niners have beaten both Philadelphia and Dallas this season, which is important for tie-breaker purposes. However, Dallas won at Seattle last month, while Philadelphia and Seattle meet in Week 14 at Lincoln Financial Field.

Philadelphia (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) picked up its sixth home win in six tries last Sunday, routing Tennessee, 43-24 as 11-point favorites. Mark Sanchez improved to 2-1 in the starting role since taking over for the injured Nick Foles at quarterback, as the former USC standout threw for 307 yards, but was intercepted twice by the Titans. LeSean McCoy broke the 100-yard rushing mark for only the third time this season with 130 yards and just his third touchdown on the ground.

The Cowboys (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) return home for the first time in nearly four weeks following a blowout of Jacksonville in London, then rallying past the Giants last Sunday night, 31-28. Most fans would only remember rookie Odell Beckham’s amazing one-hand touchdown catch to give New York a 14-3 lead, but Dallas outscored the Giants, 21-7 late, capped off by Tony Romo’s second touchdown connection of the night with Dez Bryant. Dallas swept the season series from New York, while improving to 2-1 in the division, but failed to cover for the first time in four games away from Cowboys Stadium.

Since 2006, the Cowboys have won six of eight games on Thanksgiving, including last season’s 31-24 victory over the Raiders as 10-point favorites. Dallas looks to turn around its luck at home after losing a pair of games in Arlington to Washington and Arizona, while Romo sat out the Cardinals defeat in Week 9 with a back injury.

Last season, the road team won each meeting, as the Eagles knocked off the Cowboys, 24-22 last December. Dallas covered as 7 ½-point home ‘dogs with a late Bryant touchdown catch, as both starting quarterbacks in that game (Foles and Kyle Orton) aren’t playing this time around. The Eagles have won three of the past four visits to the Lone Star State, but Philadelphia is just 2-3 on the road this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Seahawks, 49ers battle

November 25, 2014


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-4) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (7-4)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Even, Total: 40

In a rematch of last year's NFC Championship, two teams that are in the thick of the playoff race will clash Thursday night when the 49ers host the Seahawks.

Seattle beat the Cardinals 19-3 last week to improve to 4-1 SU (2-3 ATS) in its past five games, while San Francisco escaped past the Redskins 17-13 at home to win its third straight contest (2-1 ATS). Both of these teams will be desperate for a victory in this game, as they’re both competing for what could be the same spot in the playoffs. The Seahawks have gotten the best of the 49ers recently, winning three of the past four meetings SU and covering in all of them, including the 23-17 win in the NFC title game in January. Seattle has also covered in six straight in this series. However, San Francisco has won five straight home meetings in this series dating back to 2009.

This matchup should be low scoring as both teams are top-10 in scoring defense. The Seahawks are 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons and 15-6 ATS off a home win in that timeframe. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 15-6 ATS after playing a game at home over the past three seasons and 18-7 ATS versus good offenses (350+ YPG) under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Seattle could be thin up front with C Max Unger (knee) and G James Carpenter (ankle) both questionable, while NT Glenn Dorsey (arm), CB Tramaine Brock (hamstring) and OT Anthony Davis (concussion) are all listed as questionable for the 49ers.

The Seahawks picked up a big victory over the Cardinals on Sunday and their defense really stepped it up in that game, by not allowing a touchdown and holding the Cardinals to just 204 total yards. They are now allowing just 208.5 passing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and 88.4 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL). They’ll need to be prepared to stop the run against this 49ers team, but they’ve been very sound doing so in recent weeks. Offensively, QB Russell Wilson (2,230 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT) will need to throw the ball well against this San Francisco defense. Wilson threw for 211 yards and a touchdown on 17-of-22 passing in the win over Arizona. He was very efficient and made the throws he needed to in order to win the game. He also rushed for 73 yards on just 10 carries. If Wilson is playing that well then this team is extremely tough to beat.

One guy who wasn’t very productive against the Cardinals was RB Marshawn Lynch (852 yards, 9 TD). Lynch had been on a tear heading into the game, but rushed for just 39 yards on 15 carries against what is one of the better rushing defenses in the league. This 49ers team is equally as tough against the run, but Lynch galloped for 109 yards on 22 carries (5.0 YPC) and 1 TD in the NFC Championship Game and scored five total touchdowns in the three meetings with San Francisco last year.

The 49ers have had their rough patches this season, but they’ve now won three straight after hanging on to beat the Redskins last week. This defense has been a handful to play against this season, allowing just 207.2 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and 92.9 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL). Last week, this unit held the Redskins to just 213 total yards, and this game has the makings of a defensive slugfest. One player who stepped up in a big way offensively was WR Anquan Boldin (65 rec, 825 yards, 4 TD). People continue to rule the 34-year-old out because of his age, but he has not stopped producing this season. He had nine catches for 137 yards and a touchdown last week, and had a team-high 53 receiving yards and touchdown in the NFC title game loss in Seattle.

QB Colin Kaepernick (2,615 pass yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) has been finding Boldin all over the field, but he’ll need to do a better job of spreading it around against Seattle’s zone-based defense. In the Jan. 19 defeat in this series, he threw for only 153 yards (6.4 YPC) and a pair of interceptions. Anything he can add on the ground will help his team as well, but he may need to do a lot more than planned if RB Frank Gore (684 rush yards, 2 TD) isn’t running the ball effectively again. Gore rushed for just 36 yards on 12 carries against the Redskins and also lost a fumble in the game. The 49ers will likely give him a big chance to redeem himself as long as he’s 100 percent recovered from his banged up knee. Gore found no running room in the NFC Championship loss, carrying the football 11 times for a pathetic 14 yards.

[StarDust Bum]

Sharp Moves - Week 13

November 26, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 13!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.

(Rotation #457) San Diego +5.5 – You just get the feeling that the Chargers are going to win this game just to spite square bettors. The Bolts have a history of playing well on the East Coast, and they are going to be up against it here in Baltimore against the Ravens, who are coming off of the biggest win of the season in New Orleans on Monday Night Football. QB Philip Rivers hasn't played well, and about the only thing that is keeping this team going is its running game and its defense. That defense came up with the play of the season last week when it managed to get an interception on the goal line to preserve a win against the St. Louis Rams. This could be another close one, and sharp bettors know it.

Opening Line: San Diego +5.5
Current Line: San Diego +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Baltimore

(Rotation #462) Tampa Bay +3.5 – It feels like teams like the Bucs are sharp every week, especially when they are at home and are getting just a few points against playoff teams. This week, matters are made worse for Tampa Bay because it is in the NFC South playing against an AFC North team. The NFC South is just 1-10-1 this year in these intra-conference games, but the good news is that Tampa Bay has the one win, and the Bengals are responsible for the one tie. The Bengals could get caught looking ahead in this game; they have a ton of big games in the last month of the season, and this is supposed to be the de facto "bye week" of the bunch.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +4
Current Line: Tampa Bay +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 78% on Cincinnati

(Rotation #476) New York +6 – The Jets are playing at home on Monday Night Football this week, and they get a Miami team which is coming off of a heartbreaking loss on the road to the Denver Broncos. The question in our mind is whether the Fins are going to get off of the mat and get up for the Jets, who probably have the worst team in the NFL. We know that quarterback play isn't going to help out New York all that much; the team is switching back to QB Geno Smith in favor of QB Michael Vick, and Smith has already proven to us that he isn't a starting quarterback. That said, for the most part, if the Jets don't get their doors blown off in the first half, they tend to stick around in games. This could be another one of those outings against a Miami team which just isn't built to blow people away.

Opening Line: New York +6
Current Line: New York +6
Public Betting Percentage: 72% on Miami

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats - Week 13

November 25, 2014


Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

With the Alabama Tide high and rolling atop the playoff committee poll, and the final full week of college football games on tap this week, it’s crunch time for many tams looking to earn the best bowl bid possible.

Until the final results are in, let’s review teams and their season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, November 24th, unless noted otherwise.

OIL AND VINEGAR

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We affectionately refer to them as ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

College Football: Texas San Antonio and Utah.

NFL: St. Louis

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that still quality on ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, and with the list shortening by the week, here’s this year’s current list.

ALERT: ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

Play On Dogs: Baylor, Boise State, East Carolina, Georgia Tech, *Marshall, Mississippi State, *Ohio State, TCU and Western Michigan.

Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, *SMU, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

This week we find Georgia Tech in the ‘Play On’ dog list, with no teams appearing on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

These are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week includes:

College Football: Arizona State

NFL: Chicago Bears

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

College Football: Washington State

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TRENDING THIS WEEK

The Washington Redskins are 11-0 ATS in their seventh away game of the season.

Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians is 7-0 SU and ATS in non-division games in his NFL career when his team is off a SU loss.

The New Orleans Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games after playing on Monday night.

The New England Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS as underdogs this season.

The Denver Broncos are 0-7 ATS in Sunday night games against an opponent off a SU and ATS loss.

The Miami Dolphins are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five Monday Night games.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 29-0 SU and 21-8 ATS as a non-division favorite, including 5-0 SU and ATS versus AFC West opponents.

[StarDust Bum]

Seahawks, 49ers meet for 1st time

November 26, 2014

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - Richard Sherman's leaping deflection of a pass headed for Michael Crabtree in the corner of the end zone was the defining moment to seal last January's NFC championship game that sent the Seattle Seahawks on their way to a Super Bowl win.

The tip landed right in the hands of Malcolm Smith for the interception.

Sherman's mouthy response afterward - along with a choking gesture toward Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers bench - will certainly fuel San Francisco as the NFC West rivals face off Thursday night for the first of two important matchups in a three-week span.

''It was cool just to clinch the game like that,'' defensive end Cliff Avril said. ''No better person to do it than Sherm and Malcolm getting it.''

Sherman made the play, then patted Crabtree on the backside while extending his hand for a shake, prompting the 49ers wideout to shove the brash cornerback in the face.

After that 23-17 victory at CenturyLink Field, Sherman took it much further.

''I was making sure everybody knew Crabtree was a mediocre receiver,'' Sherman said. ''And when you try the best corner in the game with a mediocre receiver that's what happens.''

Sherman was later fined for unsportsmanlike conduct and taunting.

''Obviously you want to win that game, but it's in the past now,'' Kaepernick said. ''We know we've been through this before. But it's a different year, a different season.''

It's all still plenty fresh as the rivals play another meaningful game merely 10 months later, this time between a pair of 7-4 teams trying to stay alive in the playoff race with a chance to catch first-place Arizona (9-2).

''I remember just the feeling after we got that interception and sealing our trip to the Super Bowl,'' Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner said. ''All that is in the past. They're trying to make it to the playoffs this year, just like we're trying to.''

Kaepernick isn't about to get involved in any kind of back and forth with the emotional defensive back. He expects Crabtree to be focused, too.

''It's another game for him. I don't think he's worried about anything else,'' Kaepernick said.

Here are some things to watch for in the first of two matchups between the rivals in the next three weeks:

TWO GAMES IN THREE WEEKS: Seattle coach Pete Carroll is embracing how the schedule worked out, with two late-season matchups against the rival Niners in a three-week span.

Two teams that have captured the past three NFC West crowns need to keep winning, though Carroll insists these games are intense regardless of records or standings.

''We'd still be playing these games as championship games the way we look at it,'' Carroll said. ''If we were here and our record was different than it is, we would play every one of these games like it's the last game we get to play all year.

''That's how we do it. ... We would never look for some cushy way into the playoffs. We don't want to be a playoff team, we want to be a division champion. So we're going to continue to fight for that as long as there's hope.''

BEAST MODE BOUNCE BACK?: Marshawn Lynch managed just 39 yards on 15 carries in a 19-3 win against Arizona on Sunday, and needs to get his body healed up in a hurry. Quarterback Russell Wilson outgained him.

His troublesome sore back has hindered him this season.

Lynch ran for 124 yards the previous week facing the Chiefs and 140 the game before that against the Giants.

49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, for one, is counting on Lynch's best.

''`Beast Mode,' I've heard him referred to that complimentary,'' Harbaugh said. ''Hard. Aggressive. Tough runner. Talented.''

BOLDIN'S HANDS: Anquan Boldin has 86 receptions for 1,091 yards and three touchdowns in 14 games against Seattle, including the playoffs.

Seattle's secondary will have its hands full.

Boldin has at least five catches in each of his past six games, and had nine for 137 yards in last week's win against Washington.

BOWMAN NO GO: NaVorro Bowman certainly hoped to be back by now, in time to face Seattle again. He went down with a devastating left knee injury in the NFC title game and needed surgery.

While his 21-day window to be activated is into its second week, Harbaugh said the 2013 All-Pro still wasn't ready to practice and would continue with his rehab.

''I wouldn't say disappointing is the word. Obviously we want to have him back on the field, but it has to be when he's ready, when he's healthy,'' Kaepernick said.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

Seattle at San Francisco
The Seahawks head to San Francisco tonight and come into the contest with a 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 road games. San Francisco is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-1). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27

Game 305-306: Chicago at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 124.727; Detroit 145.053
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 20 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-7); Under

Game 307-308: Philadelphia at Dallas (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 135.152; Dallas 135.391
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: Seattle at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 133.562; San Francisco 136.679
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-1); Under


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30

Game 451-452: Washington at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.318; Indianapolis 133.877
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 10; 51
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+10); Over

Game 453-454: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 121.198; Houston 134.540
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Under

Game 455-456: Cleveland at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 133.174; Buffalo 133.238
Dunkel Line: Even; 37
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under

Game 457-458: San Diego at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 132.563; Baltimore 135.937
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+6 1/2); Over

Game 459-460: NY Giants at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 126.080; Jacksonville 121.699
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Over

Game 461-462: Cincinnati at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.276; Tampa Bay 129.426
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+4); Over

Game 463-464: Oakland at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.428; St. 133.944
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 8 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 6 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-6 1/2); Over

Game 465-466: New Orleans at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 128.495; Pittsburgh 135.027
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 53
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4); Under

Game 467-468: Carolina at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.098; Minnesota 125.275
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over

Game 469-470: Arizona at Atlanta (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 131.067; Atlanta 132.698
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 471-472: New England at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.802; Green Bay 147.025
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6; 62
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 58
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Over

Game 473-474: Denver at Kansas City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 137.722; Kansas City 137.957
Dunkel Line: Even; 53
Vegas Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2 1/2); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 1

Game 475-476: Miami at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 136.985; NY Jets 127.670
Dunkel Line: Miami by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Miami by 6 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Bears (5-6) @ Lions (7-4)—Detroit lost four of last five Turkey Day games but favorite covered all five; Lions won 40-10 LY, over Rodgers-less Pack. Detroit lost last two weeks on road, with no TDs, seven FGA on 21 drives; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, with last three home games decided by total of eight points. Chicago lost three of last four road games after winning first two; they’re 3-3 as road underdogs, and won four of last six visits to Motor City, but got swept 40-32/21-19 by Lions LY, after having won nine of previous 10 series games. Chicago won last two games, both 21-13, after losing five of previous six. Last ten Detroit games stayed under the total; average total in last three games of this series is 54.0.

Eagles (8-3) @ Cowboys (8-3)—Dallas scored 26+ points in seven of eight wins; they are 1-3 when scoring less than that. Cowboys are 1-3 as home favorites this year, 7-23 overall as HFs under Garrett. Three Sanchez starts were all one-sided affairs won by home team. Eagles are lost three of last four road games; they’re 0-2-1 in last three tries as road underdogs. Philly has ten non-offensive TDs this year; they won 30-27 at Indy in Week 2 in only other game on carpet this season. Home side lost six of last eight series games, with each team 3-1 in last four visits to others’ building. Divisional home favorites are 15-15 vs spread this year, 1-3 in NFC East games. Last four Philly games, six of last nine Dallas games went over total.

Seahawks (7-4) @ 49ers (7-4)—Defending champs are 2-3 on road, beating Redskins, Panthers; they’re 6-0 when allowing 20 or less points, 1-4 when allowing 21+. 49ers won last three games, allowing 23 points (two TDs/24 drives) last two games, but their red zone offense is worst in NFL; they scored 17 or less points in four of last five games, are 0-5 as home favorites (3-2 SU), losing to Bears/Rams. How does team with such a mobile QB have a poor red zone offense? Seattle won three of last four series games, beating Niners in playoffs LY, but Hawks lost last five visits to Candlestick, in series where home side won 10 of last 11 series games. Five of last seven Seattle games went over total; all five 49er home games stayed under.




NFL

Thursday, November 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Thanksgiving Day betting preview
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7, 47)

The Detroit Lions are rapidly losing ground in the NFC North and will try to avoid a third straight loss when they host the Chicago Bears in the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday. The Lions had the misfortune of playing a pair of division leaders in back-to-back weeks and had no answers on offense against the Arizona Cardinals or New England Patriots. The Bears are pulling out of their own funk with back-to-back wins as they try to get back into the race.

Detroit has been leaning heavily on its defense all season but showed some cracks in the unit while getting blasted 34-9 by the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Patriots steered away from the Lions’ strength along the defensive line with a series of quick passes – a strategy Chicago has the personnel to employ. The Bears' defense was a big question mark after surrendering a combined 106 points in back-to-back losses to New England and Green Bay but held Minnesota and Tampa Bay to a total of 26 in the last two contests.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw the Lions favored by 6.5, before jumping to Detroit -7 Monday. An opening total of 46.5 has since jumped as high as 47 before resting at 47 on Wednesday.

INJURY REPORT: Bears - LB Lance Briggs (Ques-Groin), CB Kyle Fuller (Doub-Knee) Lions - RB Reggie Bush (Prob-Ankle), WR Calvin Johnson (Prob-Ankle), T Riley Reiff (Ques-Leg), LB Ashlee Palmer (Ques-Concussion)

ABOUT THE BEARS (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U): Chicago’s offense has been under some scrutiny and it generated only 68 yards while going scoreless in the first half on Sunday before taking advantage of some Tampa Bay turnovers to put up 21 third-quarter points in the 21-13 triumph. “Win or loss, we’re always trying to improve on offense,” quarterback Jay Cutler said on his radio show on ESPN 1000 on Monday. “We’re always looking at what we did wrong. This week’s a little bit different because we’ve got to move on.” The most consistent part of the offense has been running back Matt Forte, who could become a bigger part of the passing game this week as the Bears take on the NFL’s top-ranked rush defense.

ABOUT THE LIONS (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 2-9 O/U): Matthew Stafford went 18-of-46 for a career-worst 39.1 completion percentage against New England but only some of that can be blamed on poor throws, as Detroit's receivers had several notable drops in the red zone. “We’ve got to keep working at it, we’ve got to keep concentrating on it,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell told reporters of the drops. “Those are the things that stop drives and they certainly did stop some drives for us and kept us from getting a couple of scores.” Star receiver Calvin Johnson was targeted a total of 22 time in the last two games but only made nine catches for 117 yards.

TRENDS:

*Bears are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC North.
*Under is 13-3 in Lions last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
*Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Detroit.

CONSENSUS: 59.32 percent of users are backing the Lions -7 with 60.8 percent on the over.



Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 54.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have a pretty short turnaround after playing the late game on the road Sunday but should not lack energy when they take on the visiting Philadelphia Eagles in the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday. The Cowboys and the Eagles enter the weekend tied for first in the NFC East and both are coming off impressive victories. Dallas had the luxury of a bye in Week 11 before the grind of two games in five days.

The Cowboys had to battle back from a 21-10 halftime deficit and earned a 31-28 win at the New York Giants on Sunday when Tony Romo found Dez Bryant in the end zone with 1:01 left. “It’s our job as coaches to make sure we understand the physical burden that they’ve been under,” Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters. “…But having said that we’ve got to get their minds forward and get ready for this next challenge.” The Eagles, who lead the NFC in total offense, will represent the biggest challenge for the Cowboys defense, which is surrendering an average of 355 yards.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Neither the opening line of Cowboys -3 or opening total of 54.5 have moved.

INJURY REPORT: Eagles - LB Emmanuel Acho (Ques-Thurs) Cowboys - DT Josh Brent (Ques-Conditioning)

ABOUT THE EAGLES (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 O/U): Philadelphia fell on its face in a 53-20 loss at Green Bay on Nov. 16 but bounced right back on Sunday as LeSean McCoy ran for 130 yards and a score in a 43-24 win over the Tennessee Titans. The Eagles are undefeated within the division and earned a 24-22 win at Dallas in the final week of the regular season to lock up the NFC East crown in 2013. "We're not talking about first-place games because they don't crown a champion after Thursday's game," Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly told reporters. "We're just excited about the opportunity to go play against a really good team."

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-4-1 O/U): Romo missed that Week 17 loss to the Eagles last season after undergoing back surgery but is rounding into health after another back scare a few weeks ago and threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants. Romo was on the field with most of his teammates for Monday’s walk-through as the team accelerates it usual practice week. Taking some pressure off Romo is running back DeMarco Murray, who had his 10th 100-yard game of the season on Sunday and leads the league in rushing

TRENDS:

*Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
*Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Cowboys -3 have 52.07 percent of users, with the over seeing a huge 74.7 percent.



Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1, 39.5)

The stakes are certainly not as high as when Seattle knocked off San Francisco in last season's NFC Championship game, but Thursday's outcome figures to have some major playoff ramifications when the 49ers host the Seahawks in a matchup of bitter NFC West rivals. With both teams trailing division-leading Arizona by two games and a rematch in Seattle looming in 17 days, the loser will face an uphill climb in the crowded NFC. “It’s a big game for us," San Francisco safety Antoine Bethea said. "It’s our next game.”

The 49ers are riding a three-game winning streak - the victories coming by a combined 12 points - while the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks have won four of five to surge back into playoff contention. While the teams have split the past four meetings, the home side prevailing in each, Seattle outlasted San Francisco 23-17 in the NFC title game as cornerback Richard Sherman knocked away a pass in the end zone and promptly ripped 49ers wideout Michael Crabtree in a postgame interview. "We're going to have to play great football," Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson said. "Play lights out, that's it."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The game originally opened as a pick'em before shifting to San Farncisco -1 late Tuesday. The total opened at 41 before being pushed down to 39.5 Tuesday.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - G James Carpenter (Ques-Ankle), DB Marcus Burley (Ques-Hamstring), C Max Unger (Ques-Ankle) 49ers - T Anthony Davis (Ques-Concussion), TE Vance McDonald (Ques-Hip)

WEATHER REPORT: Skies are expected to be partly cloudy with a game time temperature around 66°F. Winds will gust as high 10 mph towards the northwest.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): Running back Marshawn Lynch has been a walking soap opera for Seattle, ranging from being fined for refusing to speak to the media to speculation about his future with the club and recurring back issues that forced him to briefly leave last week's 19-3 win over the Cardinals. The spotlight will remain on Lynch, who rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown in last season's playoff victory and has run for five touchdowns in the past five meetings (postseason included). Wilson has not passed for more than 211 yards during the current 4-1 stretch, but he been a dangerous threat out of the backfield with three 100-yard rushing games this season. The return of middle linebacker Bobby Wagner from injury provided a boost to the defense, which limited Arizona to 204 total yards last week.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U): San Francisco was teetering at .500 after back-to-back defeats against Denver and St. Louis, but showed its mettle by rebounding with an overtime victory at New Orleans before giving up a combined 23 points in narrow wins over the New York Giants and Washington. “You make a deposit in the toughness account and you’ll be able to make withdrawals from that later down the road," coach Jim Harbaugh said. "We want to keep making those deposits.” Wideout Anquan Boldin, the epitome of that toughness, is coming off a nine-catch, 137-yard outing but Colin Kaepernick has thrown for only one scoring pass in each of the past five contests while running back Frank Gore has not cracked 100 yards since Oct. 5. Linebacker Aldon Smith had two sacks in his second game back from suspension and has six in his last six contests versus Seattle.

TRENDS:

*Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
*Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games on grass.
*Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 53.20 percent of users are behind the Seahawks +1, with 50.9 percent taking the over.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Thursday, November 27


Seahawks' Lynch will play vs. 49ers

Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch, who has been hampered by injuries and illness the past two weeks, will play against the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday, coach Pete Carroll said Wednesday.


Lions one of the top under plays in NFL

The Detroit Lions top ranked defense has made them one of the top under plays this season. The Lions are 2-9 over/under this season, thanks to the defense holding opponents to a mere 17.3 points per game.

It also helps the under that the Lions offense has averaged a poor 17.9 ppg.

The Lions and Chicago Bears current total is set at 47 for Thursday.


Poor secondary play could hurt Bears

The Chicago Bears' secondary have been leaking like a siv this season. Since their bye week, the Bears have allowed 818 passing yards and eight touchdowns.

"The Bears rank 30th in the NFL allowing 27.5 points per game and have the 29th-ranked pass defense," Scott Kaminsky from TheGreek.com tells Covers.


Offense and turnovers leading to Eagles going over

The Philadelphia Eagles have once again become one of the hottest offensive teams in the NFL causing them to be a hot over play. All four of Philly's past four contests have gone over.

You can certainly thank an offense that has averaged 34.8 points per game during that span, as well as Mark Sanchez throwing six interceptions in those starts.

The Eagles and Cowboys current total is 55.


Seahawks dominate the 49ers against the spread

NFC West competition is brutal, but the Seattle Seahawks have been dominating the San Francisco 49ers at the window. In the past five meetings between the two rivals, the Seahawks are a perfect 5-0 against the spread.

Seattle has covered by an average of 10.5 points per game, but two of those five games were only covered by 0.5 points.

The Seahawks are currently 1.5-point road dogs Thursday.


Seahawks rushing defense could be key

The Seattle Seahawks have been solid stopping the run this season, allowing just 88.4 yards per game. The continued strength of rushing defense could go a long way to topping the San Francisco 49ers according to Scott Kaminsky of The Greek.com.

"The Seahawks gave up 130 rushing yards to Kaepernick in [the NFC Championship game]," Kaminsky says. "But have only allowed 72 rushing yards to QB's this entire season."

Seattle will also need to worry about Frank Gore, who has torched the Seahawks for 6.9 yards per carry in San Francisco.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Thanksgiving

November 26, 2014


Thanksgiving Day is upon us which means NFL total bettors have three opportunities to cash tickets this Thursday. The past two years, we’ve seen the ‘over’ go 6-0 and five of those games had 50 or more combined points posted. Will the pendulum swing back this season? I’ll try to help answer that question below but make a note that all three matchups this year are divisional battles and I like to believe that familiarity favors defense.

Be sure to check back this weekend as I’ll recap Week 12 and preview the remainder of Week 13. For now, let’s break down the games.

Chicago at Detroit (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)

In the last eight regular season matchups between these teams, the ‘over/under’ has gone 4-4. At Ford Field, the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 during this span.

Last season, the totals were 48 and 52 points. I bring that up because this year’s number opened at 46 ½ and you can see that the oddsmakers have adjusted to both teams, especially the Lions. The Lions have watched the ‘under’ go 9-2 this season and that includes a 5-1 mark at home.

Despite getting humbled at New England last Sunday, Detroit’s defense is allowing 17.3 points per game, which is ranked first in the NFL. Offensively, the Lions have been banged up with key injuries (Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush) all season and the production (17.9 PPG) has seriously dropped. The Lions averaged 24.7 PPG in 2013 and 23.2 PPG in 2012.

Detroit might be able to get things going this week as they face Chicago, who is allowing 27.5 PPG and that number gets worse on the road (31.5 PPG). Also, make a note that the Bears unit had three starters get hurt last Sunday and they’re all listed as ‘questionable’ for Thursday. INJURY REPORT

Chicago enters this game with two straight wins and even though the defense only allowed 13 points in each contest, neither of those victories (Vikings, Bucs) were impressive. Prior to those wins, Chicago gave up 51 and 55 points.

The difference? Brady and Rodgers vs. Bridgewater and McCown. The Lions’ Matthew Stafford falls somewhere in between that quartet and you can also put Jay Cutler into that “middle of the pack” group too.

As many bettors know, Cutler is hit or miss. However, the Bears are averaging more points on the road (23.8 PPG) than at home (18.6 PPG) this season. Those offensive numbers have helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 in Chicago’s first six games on the road.

Philadelphia at Dallas (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Of the three games slated for the holiday, this is the expected shootout. The total opened 54 and has jumped to 55 at most shops and will probably rise more at kickoff.

The Eagles (8-3) and Cowboys (6-4-1) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and those results can be attributed to the offensive units. Philadelphia is averaging 31.1 PPG, ranked third in the league. The Eagles are averaging 72.9 plays per game, which is the fastest pace in the league. Dallas doesn’t push the tempo like Philadelphia (63.3 plays per game) but it’s still averaging 26.5 PPG.

Defensively, Philadelphia is the worst of the two units. The Eagles are allowing 25 PPG and that number creeps up to 30.2 PPG on the road. The pace of the offense doesn’t help the defense at all and neither do the mistakes by the offense. Philadelphia has coughed up the ball a league-worst 27 times this season, which makes you wonder how this team is 8-3. As much as you hear the praise for QB Mark Sanchez, it should be noted that he’s been picked off six times in the four games he’s played.

Turnovers can be either good or bad for total bettors and something you can’t handicap. However, the Eagles’ tendencies make you believe you’ll see at least one on Thursday.

If you look at how Dallas has performed on Thanksgiving Day, it’s certainly hard to make a case for the ‘under’ in this matchup.

Last season the ‘under’ went 2-0 in the two regular season matchups, which included the Eagles’ 24-22 win in Week 17 over the Cowboys. For those of you who forgot, QB Tony Romo sat out that game.

Seattle at San Francisco (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

The NFL really outdid itself by scheduling a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship on Thanksgiving and they’re hoping they can get a repeat performance of that drama-filled matchup. Seattle earned a 23-17 win over San Francisco and the game barely went ‘under’ (40.5) the closing total. The two regular season matchups between the pair also cashed ‘under’ tickets.

CG Technology in Las Vegas opened this week’s matchup at 42 and the pros gobbled (pun intended) that number up and bet it down to 40 quickly. As of Wednesday, the number fell to 39 ½ at some shops.

Playing the ‘under’ in this matchup doesn’t leave you with much wiggle room and if that’s the direction you’re leaning, be prepared to sweat out the full 60 minutes.

Current form is a big part of my handicapping and all signs point to a defensive slugfest. In their last three games, both Seattle (14.7 PPG) and San Francisco (15.7 PPG) have been very solid defensively.

The Seahawks offense is a completely different team on the road (21.4 PPG) than at home (28.7 PPG) this season. San Francisco has been held to 17 points or less in four of its last five games and two of those results came at home. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 at the 49ers new home of Levi’s Stadium.

This will be the ninth season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving. In the first eight matchups, total bettors have seen a stalemate at 4-4. For those wondering, home teams have gone 6-2 during this span.

The Seahawks haven’t played on the holiday since 2008 when they lost 34-9 at Dallas. In 2011, the 49ers lost 16-6 at Baltimore.

Fearless Predictions

As I’ve said before on this holiday, if you’re reading this piece, then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Chicago-Detroit 47

Best Under: Seattle-San Francisco 39 ½

Best Team Total: Under 20 San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 38 Chicago-Detroit
Under 64 Philadelphia-Dallas
Under 48 ½ Seattle-San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 13

November 29, 2014

Week 12 Recap

There was a nice mix in the totals market last weekend as the ‘under’ produced an 8-7 record and the majority of those results were never in doubt. Thirteen of the 15 outcomes had the same total result for both the first-half and the game.

The two outliers were the Patriots-Lions and Rams-Chargers matchups. New England led Detroit 24-6 but only 13 points were scored in the second-half and the ‘under’ (47) hit. In the late game, St. Louis led San Diego 10-6 at the break but the Chargers outscored the Rams 21-14 in the final two quarters to help ‘over’ (43.5) bettors cash.

On the season, the ‘over’ has gone 88-87-1 through 12 weeks. Thursday’s three-game holiday card watched the ‘under’ go 2-1.

Back on Track

I didn’t feel strong about last week’s “Thursday Night Total” situation and sure enough, the Broncos and Dolphins combined for 75 points and hit the ‘over’ (47.5) early in the fourth quarter.

For those new to VI and this weekly piece, all you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Including last week’s result between Denver and Miami, this betting angle is 8-2 (80%) this year and 23-4-1 (85%) dating back to last season.

Since Oakland played at home last Thursday in Week 12, the situation calls for an ‘over’ play in the Raiders-Rams matchup on Sunday. I can honestly say that I don’t feel strong about this matchup (maybe a good thing) either

The total opened 43 and has been bet down to 42. Oakland is averaging 13.3 points per game on the road this season, which is ranked second worst in the league. St. Louis isn’t a juggernaut on offense (19 PPG) either and its defense has improved in the second-half of the season.

I’ll have to check with the originator (A86) of this angle and see what’s in play for Week 14 since we had six teams playing this past Thursday.

Road Block

In Week 11, a solid total angle was pointed at the ‘over’ in the Denver-St. Louis matchup. Unfortunately for those that followed along, the ‘under’ was never in doubt as the Rams stifled the Broncos 22-7 at home.

The angle is simple to follow and it's been profitable.

Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

Even though the Week 11 game didn’t connect, the system has still produced a 2-1 (67%) record this season and its 37-16-1 (70%) over the last 10 seasons.

This situation takes place again this Sunday when the Bengals visit the Buccaneers since this will be third consecutive road game for Cincinnati.

North vs. South

Last week the Elias Sports Bureau noted that the AFC North is the first division in NFL history to have all of its teams at least three games over .500 at the same time.

Pardon the expression “Along with the good comes the bad” but that’s the case here. The AFC North does have four teams at 7-4 or better but the NFC South, their common opponent this season, has four teams at 4-7 or worse.

In 12 head-to-head games this season, the North has gone 10-1-1 versus the South.

From a total perspective, the North has dominated the South offensively and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 8-4 in these games.

Baltimore – 38, 48, 29, 34
Cleveland – 26, 22, 26
Pittsburgh – 37, 24
Cincinnati – 24, 37, 27

Looking at the points scored by the four teams and doing the quick math, the AFC North has averaged 31 PPG in their 12 games versus the NFC South.

This week we have two more North-South matchups.

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay: Even though the Buccaneers have seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight games, QB Josh McCown has started to sling it the last few weeks (5 TDs, 930 yards) and rookie WR Mike Evans is showing why he was so coveted. The Bengals are on a 3-0 run to the ‘under’ and the defense has stepped up during this run, allowing 15.6 PPG. It does fit the road system (see above) but I'm not all in on this one.

New Orleans at Pittsburgh: If you handicap this game based on the Saints’ road struggles and current form, Pittsburgh seems like a no-brainer but we all know it’s never that easy. Pittsburgh is rested and it should be known that the Steelers have won their last six games off a bye and the defense has allowed 9.8 PPG in these victories. I do believe the total is inflated for this matchup and I just can’t ignore Pittsburgh’s tendencies in the early games (1:00 p.m. ET). For whatever reason, the Steelers have come out flat in these spots and that will keep me on the sidelines.

Game of the Week – Patriots at Packers

I believe this total is too high and if gets north of 60, I would advise you to take the ‘under’ just on principal. The Patriots (32.5 PPG) and Packers (32.2 PPG) are the two highest scoring teams in the league but they both have solid defensive units that go unnoticed. The last three weeks, New England (16.7 PPG) and Green Bay (18.3 PPG) have stifled opponents defensively. It doesn’t sound right saying this but I believe both defensive units match up well with the attacks in this game. I’m assuming both coaches will try to run the football and attempt to keep the other team off the field, which will bleed the clock. Weather could be a factor with temperatures expected to in the low twenties with wind gusts as high as 20 MPH.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s holiday ‘under’ between the Seahawks and 49ers, the ‘over’ has gone 29-9 (76%) in games played at night this season. The Sunday night matchup has been the best ‘over’ (11-1) look all season. Also, it should be noted that the SNF and MNF games the last two weeks has watched the Underdog-Over combination cash in all four games.

Denver at Kansas City: In Week 2, the Broncos held off the Chiefs for a 24-17 win as the ‘under’ (49) cashed. Last season, the pair played to a a similar outcome (27-17) in Denver before having a shootout (35-28) in Kansas City. The total is in the same neighborhood (49.5) for the rematch and I’m a little hesitant to back the ‘over’ due to Denver’s offense on the road. Against quality defensive units (Seahawks, Patriots, Rams), the Broncos scored a combined 48 points. Kansas City has had extra time to prepare for this all-important matchup and its defense has been stellar at home (15.4 PPG). The Chiefs are averaging 26.6 PPG at home this season.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: Looking at all of the numbers, it’s hard to argue against the ‘under’ (42) in this matchup. Six of the last seven encounters have gone ‘under’ and the most combined points scored during this span was 43. Defensively, the Dolphins (315 YPG) and Jets (324 YPG) are ranked fifth and seventh in yards allowed. The problem with New York is turnovers and that leads to short tracks for the opposition. Part of that issue for the Jets has been the play of QB Geno Smith, who will be under center again this Monday.

Fearless Predictions

I’m starting to believe that I should stop offering up Team Total and Teaser picks and focus on the Best Bets each week. After dropping 10 cents, the bankroll fell to $50 after 12 ½ weeks but a perfect holiday has us nearing five units ($450) of profit. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Denver-Kansas City 49

Best Under: Washington-Indianapolis 51

Best Team Total: Over 20 ½ Buccaneers

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 40 Denver-Kansas City
Under 67 New England-Green Bay
Under 51 Miami-N.Y. Jets

[StarDust Bum]

Week 13 Tip Sheet

November 29, 2014

Browns at Bills (-3, 42) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 12 Recap:
-- Cleveland stayed in the mix of the wild AFC North race with a late field goal to top the Falcons, 26-24 as three-point road underdogs. The Browns overcame three interceptions from Brian Hoyer as Isaiah Crowell rushed for two touchdowns and Josh Gordon hauled in 120 yards in his season debut. Cleveland hasn’t lost consecutive games yet this season, going 4-0 SU/ATS off a defeat.
-- The Bills snapped a two-game skid in Monday’s 38-3 blowout of the Jets at Ford Field in Detroit, as the game was moved from Buffalo due to the inclement conditions in western New York. Buffalo scored a total of 81 points against New York in two victories, while Kyle Orton tossed a pair of touchdowns, moving his total to six TD’s versus the Jets this season.

Previous meeting: The Browns outlasted the Bills, 37-24 last October in a Thursday night battle. Cleveland cashed as 3 ½-point home favorites, as the Browns scored a pair of non-offensive touchdowns in the win in spite of racking up 290 yards of offense. The Browns host the Bills for the first time since 2010 when Buffalo held on for a 13-6 victory.

What to watch for: Cleveland’s six-game ‘under’ streak came to an end in last week’s win at Atlanta, while it seeks consecutive covers for the first time since the first two weeks of the season. The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their past four games at Ralph Wilson Stadium, all as a favorite, while Buffalo is one of the top ‘under’ teams in the league with a 9-2 mark.

Chargers at Ravens (-6, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 12 Recap:
-- The Chargers head to the East Coast following a pair of home victories to improve to 7-4. San Diego held off St. Louis, 27-24, but failed to cover for the sixth straight game as the Bolts allowed a late touchdown as four-point favorites. Philip Rivers threw for 291 yards and a touchdown, the fifth consecutive contest the Chargers’ quarterback has thrown for less than 300 yards.
-- The Ravens return home following a solid Monday night triumph at struggling New Orleans, 34-27 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs. Baltimore pulled off a four-game sweep of the NFC South, as its four-highest scoring outputs of the season have come against that division. Justin Forsett ran all over the Saints’ defense for 182 yards and two touchdowns, as the Ravens won a road game for the first time since Week 6 at Tampa Bay.

Previous meeting: Baltimore edged San Diego in overtime back in 2013 at Qualcomm Stadium, 16-13 as one-point road favorites. Justin Tucker kicked the game-tying field goal at the end of regulation, then won it in the extra session, as the Ravens erased a 10-0 halftime deficit. The Chargers are traveling to Baltimore for the first time since 2006, as San Diego also lost by that exact 16-13 score.

What to watch for: The Lightning Bolts began the season covering each of their first three games as an underdog, but have failed in the last two in blowout losses at Denver and Miami. The Ravens are just 3-4 against AFC opponents, which doesn’t bode well in Wild Card tiebreaker situations, but Baltimore has won and covered in each of its past four home contests.

Saints at Steelers (-5, 54) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 12 Recap:
-- In spite of suffering a rare three-game losing streak at home and slipping to 4-7, the Saints are still tied for first place in the awful NFC South. New Orleans couldn’t hold on to a 17-14 halftime lead in a 34-27 defeat to Baltimore last Monday night, the third straight game the Saints have allowed at least 27 points at the Superdome. Drew Brees threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, as the Saints dropped their third straight for the first time since 2012.
-- Pittsburgh is back following the bye week, as the Steelers rallied past the Titans to close out Week 11 with a 27-24 victory as seven-point road favorites. Le’Veon Bell rushed for a career-best 204 yards in the win for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh improved to 5-1 in games played past 1:00 this season.

Previous meeting: On Halloween night in 2010 at the Superdome, the Saints came away with a 20-10 triumph over the Steelers as 1 ½-point favorites. Following three field goals kicked by the two teams in the first half, Brees tossed a pair of touchdowns in the second half, as the Saints won in spite of rushing for just 30 yards. The Saints are making their first trip to the Steel City since 2006, when the Steelers came away with a 38-31 win.

What to watch for: New Orleans is listed as an underdog for just the second time this season, as it covered in its first try in this role at Detroit in a one-point setback in Week 7. The Steelers have played just two 1:00 games at Heinz Field this season, failing to cover both times against Cleveland and Tampa Bay, while posting a 1-3 ATS record as a favorite of five points or more.

Cardinals (-2, 44 ½) at Falcons – 4:05 PM EST

Week 12 Recap:
-- Arizona’s six-game winning streak came to a halt in a 19-3 setback at Seattle, as the offense couldn’t get going with Larry Fitzgerald sidelined due to a knee injury. The Cardinals’ defense did a decent job by keeping Seattle out of the end zone until the third quarter, as both Arizona losses this season came to each team that played in the Super Bowl last season.
The Falcons are unbeaten in NFC South play at 4-0, but dropped to 0-7 outside of the division following a last-second loss to the Browns, 26-24 as three-point favorites. Atlanta hasn’t won at the Georgia Dome since Week 3 against Tampa Bay, as the Falcons’ defense gave up 475 yards to Cleveland in spite of picking off the Browns three times.

Previous meeting: The home team has won each of the past seven matchups in the series since 2004, as the Cardinals dominated the Falcons last October, 27-13 as 2 ½-point favorites. Arizona intercepted Matt Ryan four times in the win, while the Falcons rushed for just 27 yards on 14 carries.

What to watch for: Atlanta’s six-game ‘under’ streak came to a halt in last week’s loss to Cleveland, while the Falcons have been outgained in six consecutive contests. The Cardinals own an 8-3 ATS record this season, as each of their three road victories have come by double-digits. Fitzgerald is listed as questionable for the Cardinals, looking to avoid missing consecutive games since 2006.

Patriots at Packers (-3, 58 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 12 Recap:
-- New England keeps rolling along by picking up its seventh straight victory in a 34-9 blowout of Detroit to easily cash as 7 ½-point favorites. Tom Brady has thrown multiple touchdown passes throughout this hot streak, while putting up 349 yards against the Lions, as the Patriots have eclipsed the 34-point mark six times during this stretch.
Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFC, going 7-1 in the past eight games after slipping past Minnesota as 7 ½-point road favorites, 24-21. The Vikings scored a late touchdown to pick up the backdoor cover, but Aaron Rodgers reached the 30-touchdown mark by throwing for two scores, while getting intercepted just three times the entire season.

Previous meeting: The Patriots held off the Packers as 14-point home favorites in December 2010 in a 31-27 victory. Rodgers missed the game due to injury, but Matt Flynn threw three touchdown passes for Green Bay to give them the cover. This is the third time Brady is facing the Packers in his career, but it’s the first time Brady and Rodgers will face off, as the Patriots rolled in their previous visit to Lambeau Field in 2006 by blanking the Packers, 35-0.

What to watch for: This is the most anticipated matchup of the season with many people believing this can be a Super Bowl preview. The Patriots saw their seven-game ‘over’ streak end in last week’s win over the Lions, while New England has looked impressive in all three underdog opportunities this season in convincing victories over Cincinnati, Denver, and Indianapolis. Green Bay’s seven-game ‘over’ stretch also concluded against Minnesota, but the Packers are a perfect 5-0 to the ‘over’ at Lambeau Field this season. The Packers have won 15 straight regular season games started and finished by Rodgers dating back to 2012.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 13

November 29, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 13 Picks (# of Selections)

1) Arizona -2.5 (373)
2) N.Y. Giants -2.5 (358)
3) Baltimore -5.5 (348)
4) Cincinnati -3.5 (340)
5) Buffalo -2.5 (340)

Week 12 Results

1) Seattle (-6.5) WIN
2) Dallas (-3.5) LOSS
3) New England (-7) WIN
4) N.Y. Jets (+4.5) LOSS
5) Baltimore (+3.5) WIN

Week 11 Results

1) New England (+3) - WIN
2) Kansas City (-1.5) - WIN
3) Green Bay (-6) - WIN
4) Cleveland (-3) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 10 Results

1) Detroit (-2.5) - WIN
2) Green Bay (-7) - WIN
3) New Orleans (-5) - LOSS
4) Kansas City (-2) - WIN
5) N.Y. Jets (+5) - WIN

Week 9 Results

1) Arizona (+3.5) - WIN
2) San Diego (+1.5) - LOSS
3) Philadelphia (-2) - WIN
4) New England (+3) - WIN
5) Baltimore (-1) - LOSS

Week 8 Results

1) Indianapolis (-3) - LOSS
2) Kansas City (-6.5) - WIN
3) Houston (-2) - WIN
4) Baltimore (+1) - LOSS
5) New Orleans (-1.5) - WIN

Week 7 Results

1) Kansas City (+4.5) - WIN
2) Indianapolis (-3) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants (+6.5) - LOSS
4) Seattle (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (-6.5) - WIN

Week 6 Results

1) Miami (+3.5) - WIN
2) N.Y. Giants (+3) - LOSS
3) Buffalo (+3) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-7) - LOSS
5) Denver (-8.5) - WIN

Week 5 Results

1) Denver (-7) - WIN
2) Baltimore (+3.5) - LOSS
3) Cincinnati (-1) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-6.5) - WIN
5) Chicago (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay (-1.5) - WIN
2) Kansas City (+3.5) - WIN
3) Atlanta (-3) - LOSS
4) Philadelphia (+5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SUPERCONTEST WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 3-2 13-7 65%
5 2-3 15-10 60%
6 2-3 17-13 57%
7 3-2 20-15 57%
8 3-2 23-17 58%
9 3-2 26-19 57%
10 4-1 30-20 60%
11 3-2 33-22 60%
12 3-2 36-24 60%
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 13

November 29, 2014


NFL USER TREND:

-- Underdogs coming off an away loss as at least a TD favorite are 16-1 ATS in database history. Active on Kansas City.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Patriots are 16-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since 1993 during the regular season after week 12 when they are off a game in which they committed fewer than two turnovers and held their opponent to more than ten points fewer than expected.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-11-1 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since December 6, 2009 on the road after a game in which a receiver had more than 100 receiving yards.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 11-0 OU (11.0 ppg) since October 7, 2012 with less than 14 days rest after a win in which Rob Gronkowski had at least 5 receptions.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS as a home dog when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams coming off four straight double-digit wins are 39-55-4 ATS. Active against New England.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Browns are 0-11 OU (-13.0 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after a win versus any team with fewer wins.