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**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 03:22 AM

Inside the Stats - Week 10

November 5, 2014

The college football playoff has released its second poll of the season and with it the debate continues. Which teams will make the ‘New Year’s Six’ and which four teams will enter the playoffs? Stay tuned.

From now until then we continue to review teams and their season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, November 3rd, unless noted otherwise.

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that still quality on ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, here’s this year’s list of ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

Play On Dogs: Alabama, Auburn, Baylor, Boise State, *East Carolina, Georgia Tech, *Marshall, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, *Ohio State, TCU, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.

Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, *Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, North Carolina, *SMU, Texas State, Troy, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

This week we find Notre Dame and Ohio State in the ‘Play On’ dog list; Connecticut and Troy appear on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.

PENNZOIL PLAYS

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

College Football: Akron, Connecticut, Duke, Troy and Western Kentucky.

NFL: Atlanta (if favored).

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week include:

College Football: Connecticut, Duke, New Mexico, Temple, Texas A&M, Texas State, and UTEP.

NFL: None.

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

College Football: Louisiana Monroe, Minnesota, New Mexico State, Southern Mississippi and UNLV.

NFL: None.

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Miami Dolphins are 5-0 SU and ATS away versus NFC North opponents.

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS as a starter against the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 11-3 SU and ATS as a starter in the NFL against the Chicago Bears.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Kyle Orton is 1-6 SU and ATS as a starter in the NFL against AFC West opponents.

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in his NFL career in games off a SU loss of 7 or more points, and 6-0 SU and ATS in this role when playing at home.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 7-1 ATS in his NFL career versus AFC East opponents.

New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton is 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS at home during the regular season in games versus non-division opponents who own a .500 or greater record.

STAT OF THE WEEK

NFL home teams who won SU in London (Detroit Lions) are 0-7 ATS at home in the following game.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 03:24 AM

Public backs Dallas and loses

November 3, 2014

LAS VEGAS – Unlike other sportsbooks around town, The Wynn did not want to put up last Sunday’s Week 9 NFL game between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals until the status of Dallas quarterback Tony Romo was confirmed. As it turned out, maybe The Wynn should not have waited.

According to The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations Johnny Avello, bettors ended up backing the Cowboys despite Romo being declared out with a back injury, pushing the line on them against the Arizona Cardinals from an opener of -1 to -2. The Cardinals won the game 28-17 on the road to improve to an NFC-best 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 against the spread.

“I didn’t put that game up the entire week because my feelings were that if the Cowboys didn’t have Romo, then the worst-case scenario would be Pick, probably Arizona 1,” Avello said. “I didn’t put it up because Romo was worth all of 6 points, so it could have been (Dallas) 6, could have been Pick, and I don’t want to guess. So I waited, and Saturday night I put up Cowboys 1, I thought he was out at that point. The money came on the Cowboys Sunday morning, which was a little surprising to me, so we ended up going off with Cowboys 2. We did good on that game.”

Of course the biggest game on Sunday from a betting perspective had the New England Patriots closing as 3-point home underdogs against the Denver Broncos. New England continued to thrive as a home dog, pounding the Broncos 43-21 to improve to 10-1 ATS and 9-2 SU under that scenario dating back to 2001.

The Wynn lost a little bit on the Patriots in a game that attracted more volume than any other Sunday, with New England’s Tom Brady going head-to-head with Denver’s Peyton Manning for the 16th time. Brady improved to 11-5 vs. Manning, but Avello was only somewhat impressed with the latest outcome.

“I’m impressed with the Patriots system, I think it’s phenomenal,” Avello said. “The team’s got (Rob) Gronkowski and Brady and a coach. How they look so impressive on offense at times, my hat’s off to the organization. Am I impressed with the win over the Broncos? Somewhat. The Broncos were forced to do things they don’t want to do, like throw the ball every down. And when you’re forced to throw the ball every down, the defense really has an advantage.

“(The Patriots) up three touchdowns the whole game. That’s the difference between Brady and the Patriots and other teams. Other teams would try to sit on that lead, and the Broncos would have gotten back in it. But that’s not what the Patriots do. The Patriots kept coming and every time it was down to two touchdowns, they made it three touchdowns. Basically gave Peyton Manning no shot to win it.”

The team that cost The Wynn the most on Sunday was the Pittsburgh Steelers, who closed as 2.5-point home favorites against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers opened -1 at The Wynn, but early money came in on the Ravens to make them 1.5-point chalk before coming back. Pittsburgh routed Baltimore 43-23 in an AFC North rivalry game that also sailed OVER the 47-point closing total, the highest number ever for a meeting between the teams.

“The Steelers game, we got beat up pretty good on that,” Avello said. “I opened up the Steelers the favorite, we went to the other side. I tried to move that game slowly going the other way, but then coming back we doubled what we took going the other way. I kind of had a good feeling about the Steelers yesterday. The move going the opposite way was a surprise to me. I don’t know why the early bets came on Baltimore.”

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 03:25 AM

Cardinals could be 1st to play SB at home

November 4, 2014

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) - Through 48 Super Bowls, no team has played the game at home.

The Arizona Cardinals, for so long the laughingstock of the NFL, have their sights set on being the first.

Halfway through the season, the idea is no joke. Arizona, at 7-1, has the best record in the NFL. If this keeps up, the Cardinals could conceivably move through the playoffs and onto the game's biggest stage without ever leaving Arizona.

It's a heady thought for a franchise that from 1985 through 2007 had one winning season.

That changed when Kurt Warner directed a 9-7 Arizona team on a stunning run to the 2009 Super Bowl, where the Cardinals came within a whisker of beating Pittsburgh. The offensive coordinator for the Steelers that day was Bruce Arians, the man who this season has Arizona off to its best start through eight games in 40 years.

Back at the start of offseason workouts, when everyone figured the Cardinals would be looking up at Seattle and San Francisco in the NFC West, Arians offered his players a simple goal.

''Put a ring on your finger,'' he said, ''and don't let anybody dress in your locker in February.''

Arians said making it to the Super Bowl and winning it is always the goal.

''That wouldn't change just because it's at home and no one has done it,'' he said.

Oddsmakers didn't think much of the Cardinals' chances in the preseason. They were a 40-to-1 longshot to win the Super Bowl before the season began. This week, after Arizona's 28-17 win at Dallas on Sunday, those odds are down to 12-to-1. Only Denver (13-to-4), Seattle (15-to-2), New England (6-to-1) and Green Bay (9-to-1) are considered better bets.

''Walking into your home stadium for a Super Bowl, it's something that everybody definitely has thought about,'' Arizona cornerback Jerraud Powers said. ''If we're blessed enough to continue to play like we're playing and winning games and get there, it would be something magical.''

Only the Miami Dolphins have had much of a chance of playing the Super Bowl at home. They made the playoffs four times in seasons that the game was played in their stadium, but never made it past the divisional round. Their most recent chance came in 1998.

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones made no secret of his fervent desire to have his team play in the 2011 Super Bowl in his gigantic, opulent new AT&T Stadium. They finished 6-10.

The big game will be played for the third time in the state of Arizona, the second since the construction of University of Phoenix Stadium, which sits like some giant silver space ship in suburban west Phoenix, its natural grass field kept outdoors in the sunshine until it's rolled inside on game day.

It was the site of the New York Giants' memorable upset of then-unbeaten New England in 2008 - a year before the Cardinals made their unexpected Super Bowl run.

Arizona went on to make the playoffs again in the 2009 season, then Warner retired and the team fell on hard times again, leading to the firing of coach Ken Whisenhunt after consecutive 5-11 seasons in 2011 and 2012. Enter Arians, hired at age 60 after a long career as a top NFL assistant and a portion of one season as interim coach at Indianapolis.

Although Arians has his team believing it can beat anyone, veteran inside linebacker Larry Foote doesn't want to get carried away with the Super Bowl-at-home talk with so much football still to be played.

''I'm not giving the Super Bowl too much thought to be honest with you,'' Foote said. ''I've been there three times. In December if we're 12-and-whatever or something like that I might start thinking about it, but we're just trying to win the West. That's all we can control right now.''

Defensive end Calais Campbell said he just wants ''to play in the Super Bowl period.''

''For it to be in your home just gives you a little bit of extra motivation because you want to do it for your fans,'' he said. ''But that's so far away. We just want to try and win the division and get in the playoffs first. From there, anything's possible.''

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:57 PM

AFC North heats up

November 5, 2014

CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-3) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-2-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Cincinnati -6, Total: 45

The Browns look to win their fifth game in six weeks when they visit the rival Bengals on Thursday night.

Cleveland has been one of the hottest teams in football, winning four of its past five games SU (2-2-1 ATS). Last week, the club prevailed 22-17 in Tampa Bay but failed to cover the 7-point spread. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been playing very well in recent weeks also, beating the Jaguars 33-23 at home, and pushed as 10-point favorites, last week for its second victory in a row SU.

The Browns have won-and-covered in two of the past three games against the Bengals, but were just 4-14 SU in the previous 18 meetings between these in-state rivals. Last season, both clubs won-and-covered against one another when playing at home, making Cincinnati 9-1 SU over the past 10 games where it has hosted this clash of AFC North foes.

However, the Bengals are just 2-11 ATS at home versus excellent passing teams (7.5+ YPA) under head coach Marvin Lewis. The Browns, meanwhile, are 0-6 ATS in the past three years after having won three of their previous four games.

Both clubs could be missing key offensive players, as TE Jordan Cameron (concussion) is doubtful and WR Andrew Hawkins (knee) is listed as questionable for Cleveland, while RB Giovani Bernard (hip) is doubtful to play for the Bengals while OT Andre Smith (ankle) is listed as questionable. Cincinnati could also be missing CBs Leon Hall (head) and Darqueze Dennard (hamstring), who are both questionable to suit up on Thursday.

The Browns have been playing some great football as of late, and it starts on the defensive end. Cleveland is allowing just 15.0 PPG over the past two weeks, and hasn’t allowed 70 or more rushing yards to an opponent in the past three games. QB Brian Hoyer (2,014 pass yards, 10 TD, 4 INT) has bounced back since that awful game in Jacksonville three weeks ago. He threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Tampa Bay, but he also tossed two picks.

He’ll need to protect the ball against a ball-hawking Cincinnati secondary with 10 interceptions this season (T-4th in NFL). One player who has really stepped up as a playmaker for Hoyer is WR Travis Gabriel (21 rec, 404 yards, 1 TD). Gabriel caught five passes for 87 yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers last week that followed up a game in which he had 60 receiving yards on just two catches against the Raiders.

The Browns’ running game, however, has been a serious issue for the team. RBs Ben Tate (308 rush yards, 3 TD) and Terrance West (302 rush yards, 2 TD) combined for only 51 yards on 25 carries versus Tampa Bay. Hoyer is not a good enough quarterback to win games solely with his arm, so this team will need to run the ball better going forward.

The Bengals looked awful in a 27-0 loss in Indianapolis on Oct. 19, but have responded with two solid victories in a row. With top RB Giovani Bernard (446 rush yards, 5 TD) missing last week's win over the Jaguars, RB Jeremy Hill (349 rush yards, 5 TD) rushed for 154 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. Hill will likely get another huge workload with Bernard doubtful to return from his hip injury on a short week, but has to face a Browns defense that has been relentless against opposing running backs over the past three weeks.

Should the ground game falter, QB Andy Dalton (1,874 pass yards, 8 TD, 6 INT) will need to be on top of his game against the Browns. He was 19-of-31 with 233 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Jaguars. He is turning the ball over far too often (5 INT in past 4 games) and will need to limit his mistakes against this Cleveland defense. In this division matchup over his career, Dalton is 4-2 SU with 225 passing YPG (7.0 YPA), 11 TD and 7 INT, but six of those picks have come in the past three meetings.

It does help Dalton to have top WR A.J. Green (20 rec, 358 yards, 3 TD) back from his toe injury, but Green was held to a mere 58 yards on nine catches in two meetings with Cleveland last year. Cincinnati will need Green to have a big game against a good secondary, but if the Browns lock down on him, No. 2 WR Mohamed Sanu (39 rec, 628 yards, 4 TD) is in the midst of a breakout third season.

The Bengals defense continues to struggle, allowing 139.6 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL) and 255.3 passing yards per game (22nd in NFL). They’ll need to correct their issues before this big division matchup.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:59 PM

Inside the Stats - Week 10

November 5, 2014

The college football playoff has released its second poll of the season and with it the debate continues. Which teams will make the ‘New Year’s Six’ and which four teams will enter the playoffs? Stay tuned.

From now until then we continue to review teams and their season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, November 3rd, unless noted otherwise.

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that still quality on ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, here’s this year’s list of ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

Play On Dogs: Alabama, Auburn, Baylor, Boise State, *East Carolina, Georgia Tech, *Marshall, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, *Ohio State, TCU, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.

Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, *Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, North Carolina, *SMU, Texas State, Troy, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

This week we find Notre Dame and Ohio State in the ‘Play On’ dog list; Connecticut and Troy appear on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.

PENNZOIL PLAYS

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

College Football: Akron, Connecticut, Duke, Troy and Western Kentucky.

NFL: Atlanta (if favored).

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week include:

College Football: Connecticut, Duke, New Mexico, Temple, Texas A&M, Texas State, and UTEP.

NFL: None.

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

College Football: Louisiana Monroe, Minnesota, New Mexico State, Southern Mississippi and UNLV.

NFL: None.

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Miami Dolphins are 5-0 SU and ATS away versus NFC North opponents.

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS as a starter against the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 11-3 SU and ATS as a starter in the NFL against the Chicago Bears.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Kyle Orton is 1-6 SU and ATS as a starter in the NFL against AFC West opponents.

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in his NFL career in games off a SU loss of 7 or more points, and 6-0 SU and ATS in this role when playing at home.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 7-1 ATS in his NFL career versus AFC East opponents.

New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton is 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS at home during the regular season in games versus non-division opponents who own a .500 or greater record.

STAT OF THE WEEK

NFL home teams who won SU in London (Detroit Lions) are 0-7 ATS at home in the following game.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 03:02 PM

Tech Trends - Week 10

November 5, 2014

THURSDAY, NOV. 6

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI...Bengals 1-3-1 vs. line last five in series, 1-4 vs. line last 5 TY. Browns 3-1 as dog in 2014. "Overs" 5-1 last six meetings. Browns and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

SUNDAY, NOV. 9

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

DALLAS vs. JACKSONVILLE (at Wembley Stadium, London)...Dallas no wins or covers last two TY, Jags have covered 3 of last 4 after 0-5 start vs. spread. Slight to Jags, based on team trends.

MIAMI at DETROIT...Dolphins 4-0-1 vs. line last four TY and have covered three straight on road. Philbin 10-3 last 13 as dog. Lions no covers last 2 or 3 of last 4 TY Lions "under" 4-1-1 TY, 7-1-1 last 9 since late 2013. Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO...Chiefs have covered last seven in 2014. Andy Reid now 11-1 vs. line as reg.-season visitor since LY. KC "under" 6-2 TY, Bills "under" 6-2 in 2014. Chiefs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS...Sean Payton now 20-0 SU and 18-1-1 vs. line since 2011 at Superdome (tie vs. SF LY). Harbaugh 6-4-1 as dog with Niners since 2011. Saints "over" 5-2-1 TY. Saints and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

TENNESSEE at BALTIMORE...Ravens 3-1 vs. line at home TY and 10-4 last 14 vs. spread at M&T Bank Stadium. Titans on 1-6 spread skid, Ravens, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at NY JETS...Rexy no SU wins last eight TY and just 2-7 vs. spread overall. Jets also 0-5 vs. line at MetLife this season. Steel has won and covered comfortably vs. Rex the past two seasons by 17 and 13-point margins. Steel 5-2 last seven vs. line away. Steelers, based on team trends.

ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY...Bucs 0-4 SU and vs. line at home TY, no covers last 5 at home. Bucs lost 56-14 at Falcs on Sept. 18 (Atlanta's last SU win). Falcs 0-5 SU, 1-4 vs. line last five TY. Slight to Falcs, based on Bucs' home woes.

DENVER at OAKLAND...Broncos "over" last five TY, now "over" 50-26-1 in reg season since late in 2009. Seven of last nine "over" in series. Denver has won and covered last five vs. Raiders. Oakland 5-12 vs. spread last 17 at Coliseum. Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ST. LOUIS at ARIZONA...Arians 13-3-1 vs. spread last 16 on board since mid 2013 for Big Red. Arians 9-3-1 vs. line in Glendale since LY. Rams 4-7-1 as road dog since LY. Cards, based on team trends.

NY GIANTS at SEATTLE...Seahawks no covers last four TY, longest spread skid since Pete Carroll arrived in 2010. Giants, based on recent trends.
.
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY...Bipolar Bears 1-4 vs. line last five TY, though 3-2 SU away. Cutler finally won at Green Bay LY after Bears had lost four in a row SU at Lambeau. Pack 7-1 vs. line last eight meetings. Bears "over" 4-0 away TY and "over" last six away. Pack "over" first 3 at home TY and "over" 5-1 last six at Lambeau. Pack and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

MONDAY, NOV. 10

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CAROLINA at PHILADELPHIA...Cam very erratic TY, but remember Panthers entered TY on 7-1 run as road dog, now 9-3 last 12 in role. Birds 4-1-1 vs. line last six at Linc. Slight to Panthers, based on extended road dog trend.

TEAMS ON BYE - WEEK 10

Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Minnesota Vikings New England Patriots San Diego Chargers Washington Redskins

**StarDust Bum** · 11-06-2014, 02:28 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Saints favored in crucial Week 10 matchup

Week 10 of the NFL season features several contests among teams normally in the playoff hunt. But almost all those teams need to start winning games in a hurry to keep it going this year. San Francisco and New Orleans are both definitely in that boat for their Sunday meeting in the Big Easy.

The 49ers, who have reached three straight NFC championship games and advanced to the Super Bowl two seasons ago, are a lackluster 4-4 SU and ATS. San Fran was dealt a stunning home loss Sunday to St. Louis, tumbling 13-10 as a hefty 10.5-point favorite.

The Saints (4-4 SU and ATS) have been perennial NFC contenders with Drew Brees, but are plodding along in the mediocre NFC South this year. New Orleans comes in with a little more rest, having dispatched Carolina 28-10 last Thursday as a 3-point road fave.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, made the Saints a 3.5-point favorite.

“New Orleans’ home-field edge is akin to Seattle's. It’s not worth as much, but it’s close,” Lester said. “With the extra prep time and the added pressure that they can’t afford to lose many more games, if any, the Saints had to be favored. However, I expect the Niners to give a huge effort here.”

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

New York won the Super Bowl three seasons ago. Seattle won it all last year. Both teams have some serious work to do just to get to the playoffs, let alone entertain Super Bowl thoughts.

The Seahawks (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) had to battle to hold off Oakland on Sunday, winning 30-24 but falling well short as a 13.5-point home chalk. The Giants (3-4 SU and ATS) still have some work to do, capping off the Week 9 schedule as a 3-point underdog against visiting Indianapolis in the Monday night game.

“It’s a short week with lengthy travel for the Giants,” Lester said. “The Seahawks somewhat found their footing against Oakland. If New York beats Indy on Monday night, we’ll put the line somewhere north of a touchdown. If not, Seattle will be close to double-digit chalk.”

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7)

Green Bay (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) is coming off its bye week, after getting flattened at New Orleans 44-23 catching two points on Oct. 26. That setback ended a stout 4-0 SU and ATS streak that began with a 38-17 blowout of Chicago as a 2-point road fave.

The Bears’ loss in that contest started their current 1-4 SU and ATS tailspin. Like the Pack, Chicago (3-5 SU and ATS) is coming off a bye following a blowout loss – the Bears got boatraced 51-23 at New England as 5.5-point dogs on Oct. 26.

“I don’t know if a bye week was enough to quell all of Chicago’s internal problems,” Lester said. “Meanwhile, the Packers have been stewing over that Saints loss for two weeks. I expect to see a motivated, and healthier, Green Bay bunch cruise in this one. We’re expecting to move past the key number at some point.”

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)

Philadelphia’s solid season may be in some jeopardy after quarterback Nick Foles suffered an injury to his left (non-throwing) shoulder Sunday at Houston. Foles left late in the first quarter, but the Eagles (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) went on to a 31-21 victory laying 1.5 points.

Meanwhile, the Panthers (3-5-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) have dumped three in a row SU (1-2 ATS), including last Thursday’s 28-10 home loss to New Orleans as a 3-point pup.

“The difference between Foles and Mark Sanchez is somewhat significant, but in this offense, it won’t affect the numbers much," Lester said. "Carolina is having all kinds of problems offensively right now, and they might not be able to keep up here.”

**StarDust Bum** · 11-06-2014, 02:29 PM

NFL line watch: Niners' return to run gives value to Under

Spread to bet now

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Another Falcons season is circling the toilet and the only thing fans in Atlanta have to look forward to is the inevitable firing of coach Mike Smith. Smith had it going for a few seasons, but Atlanta has won just six of its last 24 games, and no coach can survive that kind of record in this zero-sum business.

The Falcons are 0-4 on the road this season and haven’t really been in a position to win any of its games away from home. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been competitive in most of its games and its points for/points against numbers are skewed by a couple of blowout losses – including one at Atlanta.

With the Bucs sitting at 1-7 and still a 1-point favorite, the line says more about the Falcons than it does about the Buccaneers. Eat the point here in basically a pick’em game.

Spread to wait on

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+1)

The Bills never seem to get much love from bettors and this game is no different. Early money has been solidly on the Chiefs, getting a point on the road, perhaps because Kansas City might have new life in the AFC West after the Chiefs gained a full game when they beat the Jets and the Broncos lost at New England Sunday.

The 5-3 Bills, though, are coming off their bye week and should be rested and ready for what could be a rare run to the playoffs. If money keeps coming in on the Chiefs the way it has early in the week, the line could melt to a pick and create a solid opportunity for Bills backers.

At any rate, the number is not likely to move to 1.5 or 2, so there’s no penalty in waiting this one out until at least later in the week.

Total to watch

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (50)

All of a sudden the 49ers can’t run the ball and the players are starting to snipe at each other. The Niners still have one of the best defenses in the league, but sit at 4-4 halfway into the season and three full games behind Arizona in the NFC West. There are also tons of questions about whether Colin Kaepernick is indeed the guy.

With all that in the mix, the last thing San Francisco needs is a shootout in New Orleans this Sunday. Expect the Niners to work all week on getting their running game back in order (they have just 142 yards on the ground in the last two games combined), which should help grease the skids for an Under play in this one.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-06-2014, 02:30 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 10

Cleveland at Cincinnati
The Browns head to Cincinnati on Thursday night to face a Bengals team that is coming off a 32-22 win over the Jaguars on Sunday and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Cleveland is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6

Game 109-110: Cleveland at Cincinnati (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 129.807; Cincinnati 133.410
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6 1/2); Over

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 9

Game 251-252: Dallas vs. Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.584; Jacksonville 122.394
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10; 42
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under

Game 253-254: Miami at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.014; Detroit 136.631
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Over

Game 255-256: Kansas City at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 135.150; Buffalo 135.109
Dunkel Line: Even; 38
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+2 1/2); Under

Game 257-258: San Francisco at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 130.583; New Orleans 140.516
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4 1/2); Over

Game 259-260: Tennessee at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 124.461; Baltimore 132.098
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+10); Under

Game 261-262: Pittsburgh at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.865; NY Jets 126.557
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4 1/2); Under

Game 263-264: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 126.873; Tampa Bay 123.345
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1 1/2); Over

Game 265-266: Denver at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.251; Oakland 128.722
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Denver by 12 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+12 1/2);

Game 267-268: St. Louis at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 130.971; Arizona 134.836
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Arizona by 7 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7 1/2); Over

Game 269-270: NY Giants at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 125.497; Seattle 137.427
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 9; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-9); Under

Game 271-272: Chicago at Green Bay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 124.022; Green Bay 137.678
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10

Game 273-274: Carolina at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 129.712; Philadelphia 133.867
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 52
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 6; 48
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+6); Over

**StarDust Bum** · 11-06-2014, 02:31 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (5 - 3) at CINCINNATI (5 - 2 - 1) - 11/6/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (6 - 3) vs. JACKSONVILLE (1 - 8) - 11/9/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (5 - 3) at DETROIT (6 - 2) - 11/9/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 50-75 ATS (-32.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (5 - 3) at BUFFALO (5 - 3) - 11/9/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
BUFFALO is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 4) - 11/9/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (2 - 6) at BALTIMORE (5 - 4) - 11/9/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (6 - 3) at NY JETS (1 - 8) - 11/9/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 93-63 ATS (+23.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NY JETS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (2 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 7) - 11/9/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (6 - 2) at OAKLAND (0 - 8) - 11/9/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (3 - 5) at ARIZONA (7 - 1) - 11/9/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 139-176 ATS (-54.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 139-176 ATS (-54.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 101-138 ATS (-50.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ARIZONA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (3 - 4) at SEATTLE (5 - 3) - 11/9/2014, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (3 - 5) at GREEN BAY (5 - 3) - 11/9/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 159-114 ATS (+33.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 5 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 2) - 11/10/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 159-125 ATS (+21.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 11-06-2014, 02:32 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, Nov. 6

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 8:25 ET
Cleveland: 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Cincinnati: 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) versus division opponents

Sunday, Nov. 9

Dallas at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 9-2 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Jacksonville: 1-8 ATS in non-conference games

Miami at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Miami: 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game
Detroit: 50-75 ATS (-32.5 Units) as a favorite

Kansas City at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games off 3 or more consecutive unders
Buffalo: 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after allowing 150 or less passing yards in 2 straight games

San Francisco at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games

Tennessee at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Baltimore: 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Pittsburgh at New York Jets, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
NY Jets: 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games

Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after 4 or more consecutive losses
Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents

Denver at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Denver: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Oakland: 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games off a road loss

St Louis at Arizona, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Arizona: 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents

New York Giants at Seattle, 4:25 ET
NY Giants: 40-22 UNDER (+15.8 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs
Seattle: 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a home win

Chicago at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Chicago: 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games
Green Bay: 104-69 ATS (+28.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road

Monday, Nov. 10

Carolina at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
Carolina: 80-55 ATS (+19.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Philadelphia: 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points

**StarDust Bum** · 11-06-2014, 02:33 PM

NFL

Week 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 6

8:25 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
Cleveland is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Sunday, November 9

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BUFFALO
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. BALTIMORE
Tennessee is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. JACKSONVILLE
Dallas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the NY Jets last 14 games when playing Pittsburgh
NY Jets are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Francisco is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Francisco's last 11 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:05 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. SEATTLE
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
NY Giants are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games at home
Seattle is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home

4:25 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Arizona is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing St. Louis

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Chicago is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Monday, November 10

8:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Carolina's last 19 games
Carolina is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games ,
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

**StarDust Bum** · 11-06-2014, 02:34 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Thursday
Browns (5-3) @ Bengals (5-2-1)—Cincy is 12-1-1 vs spread in last 14 home games, 9-1-1 in last 11 as home favorite; they won five of last seven series games, with home side winning last five. Browns lost last five visits here, losing by 9-2-3-7-21 points. Bengals scored 27-33 points in winning last two games; they’ve scored 20+ points in second half in three of last four games. Browns are 4-1 since their bye, 2-0 as road underdogs; only one of their three losses was by more than a FG. NFL-wide, home favorites in divisional games are 9-13 vs spread; dogs are 4-2 in AFC North games this season. Cleveland has eight takeaways (+8) in its last three games. Four of last five Bengal games went over total; last four Cleveland games stayed under.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-06-2014, 02:34 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Browns at Bengals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 44.5)

Unbeaten at home, the Cincinnati Bengals look to maintain their grip on the AFC North Division lead when they host the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night. Cincinnati got back wide receiver A.J. Green in its win over Jacksonville last week and the receiver paid immediate dividends by snaring a touchdown catch. The Bengals are 13-0-1 at home in a streak that has spanned three seasons.

Despite a rushing game that has struggled mightily of late, the Browns have won two straight and four of their last five games and are in the thick of the division race. Cleveland, however, will have to break a long skid on road if it wants to climb into a tie atop the division as it has lost its last 17 AFC North games on the road. In fact, the last time the Browns won a division game away from home was in 2008 at Cincinnati.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Bengals -6. They have spent some time -6.5, but most books are dealing -6 again. The total has held at 44.5.

INJURY REPORT: Browns - WR Andrew Hawkins (Questionable, knee), TE Jordan Cameron (Questionable, concussion). Bengals - RB Gio Bernard (Questionable, hip), CB Leon Hall (Questionable, head), LB Vontaze Burfict (Out indefinitely, knee).

WEATHER: There is a 60 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-40s.

POWER RANKINGS: Browns (+2.75) + Bengals (-0.75) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -6.5

ABOUT THE BENGALS (5-2-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Green caught three passes for 44 yards and had another touchdown nullified by penalty in his first game in a month since suffering a toe injury. Running back Giovani Bernard (ribs, shoulder) is questionable but his replacement, Jeremy Hill, rushed for 154 yards and a pair of scores last week. It will be an emotional night for defensive tackle Devon Still, whose daughter drew headlines with her battle with cancer and is expected to attend Thursday's game.

ABOUT THE BROWNS (5-3 SU, 4-2-2 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Lead back Ben Tate has rushed for just 65 yards in his past three games, prompting the Browns to re-evaluate its backfield roles. Terrance West actually had more touches than Tate last week and scored on a short pass in Cleveland's narrow win over Tampa Bay. The Browns have not recovered from the loss of center Alex Mack to a broken leg, but Brian Hoyer has continued to impress and threw for 300 yards and two scores against the Bucs.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Underdog is 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
* Bengals are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.
* Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 62 percent of bets on this matchup are backing the Bengals.

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