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  • #46
    Seahawks lose DT Mebane for season

    November 11, 2014

    RENTON, Wash. (AP) - Defensive tackle Brandon Mebane will miss the rest of the season for the Seattle Seahawks after being placed on injured reserve following a hamstring injury in a win over the New York Giants.

    The roster move was announced Tuesday. Fox Sports first reported that Mebane suffered a torn hamstring. Seattle coach Pete Carroll said Monday that Mebane's injury was really ''legit'' but the team was waiting for additional test results.

    Mebane was hurt during the first half of Seattle's 38-17 win.

    Mebane's loss is a blow to Seattle's run defense, which ranks fourth in the league at 79.8 yards per game. While his stats don't jump out, Mebane's ability to clog running lanes and control blockers has allowed Seattle's linebackers to step up and stop ball carries.

    -----------------------------------------

    Dolphins not biting over quote by Bills

    November 11, 2014

    DAVIE, Fla. (AP) - The Miami Dolphins are taking the high road following comments by Buffalo cornerback Leodis McKelvin, who says he is certain the Bills will win when the teams play Thursday night.

    Some of Miami's players said they were unaware when asked about McKelvin's comments that he ''ain't going to lose no sleep, man. I'm just going to take (myself) home, put myself to sleep and get ready to play the Dolphins and beat (them), point blank, period.''

    Wide receiver Mike Wallace cracked a smile and acknowledged that he heard about the comments.

    ''We've got to line up Thursday anyway, man, so whatever you say it is what is,'' said Wallace, who leads the Dolphins with 40 receptions for 519 yards and six touchdowns. ''We'll be out there on Thursday night. I ain't got no time for that. ... We're not worried about that, man. That's lightweight. We're not worried about that.''

    But when he was asked to rate the Bills secondary, Wallace kept the compliments to a minimum.

    ''They're all right,'' he said. ''They're cool. They've got some fast guys, physical safeties but we'll be all right.''

    Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was aware of what McKelvin said, but insisted he didn't see a need to trade words through the media.

    And center Samson Satele hinted that McKelvin's words probably got Wallace and the other receivers ''more geeked up.''

    ''You don't want to hear that,'' Satele said. ''I don't get too much into it but if a defensive tackle said that I wouldn't like that at all, so it's a challenge and I think Mike Wallace and Brian (Hartline) and (Jarvis Landry) and Rishard (Matthews), they're up for it. I can't wait to watch that matchup.''

    Buffalo has won four of the past five games between the division rivals, including a 29-10 at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 2. Tannehill said he's tired of losing to the Bills.

    ''We didn't put it up on the board or anything but we're aware of what's been said,'' Tannehill said. ''It's just a matter of going out and playing well. At the end of the day it doesn't matter what you say during the week, it matters how you play in this case on Thursday.''

    ---------------------------------------------
    Small wide receivers making big impact

    November 11, 2014

    PITTSBURGH (AP) - The NFL's leading receiver - the one taken in the sixth round of the 2010 draft as an unknown, undersized project - would like to have a word.

    ''I'm not a little guy,'' Antonio Brown says.

    Point out that at 5-foot-10 and 180 pounds the frenetic Pittsburgh Steelers star is hardly considered an NFL prototype, and Brown shrugs.

    ''I'm not a little guy,'' he repeats.

    And the scouts who figured he was a fringe prospect at best four years ago, favoring the likes of Marcus Easley, Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe, all 6-2 or taller, all no longer in the league?

    ''They made a mistake,'' Brown said with a smile.

    You think?

    Freed by a crackdown on illegal contact in the secondary, bolstered by creative sets designed to get him in open space and emboldened by a chip on his shoulder that never seems to go away, Brown is spearheading a mini-revolution at his position.

    Scooch over Calvin Johnson. Make room Julio Jones. Hold up there A.J. Green and Dez Bryant, you've got company.

    Midway through 2014, the NFL's most electric playmakers are the guys whose modest frames belie big-time numbers.

    After 10 weeks of play, Brown's 70 receptions and 1,070 yards receiving are tops in the league and his eight touchdowns are tied for fourth. Brown's childhood buddy T.Y. Hilton of the Indianapolis Colts - generously listed at 5-9 - is third in yards and sixth in yards per catch.

    They're not alone. Seven of the top 11 players in yards receiving are under 6 feet tall.

    Emmanuel Sanders (5-11) is developing into Peyton Manning's favorite target in Denver. Golden Tate (5-10) has become so explosive the Lions are soaring even with Johnson - Megatron himself - struggling to stay healthy. Julian Edelman (5-10) is Wes Welker version 2.0 in New England. The Redskins are a hot mess but DeSean Jackson (5-10) and his not-a-typo 21.8 yards per reception offer the beleaguered franchise and quarterback Robert Griffin III a glimmer of hope.

    In Baltimore, a rejuvenated 35-year-old Steve Smith is the old-school boss in the midst of a late-career renaissance. The 5-9 veteran already has four 100-yard receiving games at a time when most guys at his position have evolved into part-time role players if they even have a job at all.

    ''The little guys are coming back to rule the world,'' Smith said with laugh. ''We're coming back (and) we're here to stay. That's the bottom line. That's what it's about. The big guys, you can throw it up to them but at the end of the day when you want to move the sticks you have to throw it to the little guys. We move the needle.''

    They're doing more than that. They're finding the end zone with the same frequency as their larger - and largely higher profile - colleagues.

    The 26-year-old Brown may be the most dangerous player in the league, turning every slant or quick screen into a showcase for his roadrunner footwork regardless of where the Steelers are at on the field. While brawny tight ends like Rob Gronkowski and supersized wideouts like Demaryius Thomas remain matchup issues in tight spaces, Brown and his buddies are making an impact from goal line to goal line.

    Brown, Sanders and Green Bay's Randall Cobb are in the top 10 in red zone receptions, a tribute to their uncanny ability to wiggle free when opposing cornerbacks try to get physical and the NFL's increased policing of the pushing and shoving that goes on downfield.

    ''I think it's helping receivers in general,'' Cobb said. ''But definitely with our quickness and being able to get separation from the DB at the top of routes, and them not being able to grab has definitely helped.''

    Steelers cornerback Ike Taylor has spent a dozen seasons chasing receivers while watching fads come and go. Witnessing Brown's evolution from raw talent to unstoppable force is symbolic of the NFL's shifting the balance of power to the offense.

    ''Coordinators are putting small guys off the line, making sure you're not able to get your hands on them, using stacked positions, putting a receiver behind a tight end,'' Taylor said. ''They're finding ways to maneuver these small guys and it's been working.''

    The inability to bump players like Smith or Brown before they get to full speed can make for a miserable four quarters.

    ''You give a guy like that some space, I'm not even talking about a lot of space, I'm talking about `man in the phone booth' kind of space, he's going to take off,'' Taylor said.

    Clearly, there's still a place for receivers built like small forwards. Pittsburgh's offense didn't truly take off until 6-4 rookie Martavis Bryant was inserted into the lineup last month as the lanky yin to Brown's quicksilver yang.

    Even facing constant double teams, Brown is on pace to set single-season team records in every major statistical receiving category, though he's barely ahead of Hilton, a former youth football teammate when the two were growing up in Florida.

    Hilton and Andrew Luck are building the same rapport in Indianapolis that Brown shares with Ben Roethlisberger. Last Monday against the Giants, Luck floated a pass toward Hilton in the end zone that Hilton wrestled away from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, a taller cornerback, for a TD.

    The catch is a fitting symbol to the tenacity of smaller receivers who've spent most of their lives trying to carve out their own space in a sport that can't seem to get big enough fast enough.

    That trumps any rules, Steelers wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey said.

    ''I just think it's the dog in them,'' Heyward-Bey said. ''I think they have the mindset that even though they're shorter, they think they're 6-3, 6-4 and they can go out there and make plays.'

    -----------------------------------------------------

    Jags place WR Robinson on IR

    November 11, 2014

    JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Jacksonville's most productive rookie is done for the season.

    The Jaguars placed receiver Allen Robinson on injured reserve Tuesday with a broken right foot. He initially hurt his foot against Miami on Oct. 26, and the pain kept getting worse. Tests Monday revealed a stress fracture.

    Robinson hasn't decided whether or not to have surgery.

    ''It's disappointing just because I wanted to be out there with my teammates, out there competing and doing what I love,'' Robinson said. ''It's something that had been bothering me for a week or two. I didn't think it was that bad.''

    A second-round draft pick from Penn State, Robinson has been one of Jacksonville's bright spots on offense this season. He had 48 receptions for 548 yards and two touchdowns, outperforming veteran Cecil Shorts III and fellow rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns. Robinson was on pace to break Justin Blackmon's team record for receptions by a rookie (64).

    ''I thought it was pretty productive,'' Robinson said. ''At times, I think I could have played a lot better. At times, I could have come down with some passes in some games that could have changed the games a little bit. I've just got to improve on what I did this season and just get better at what I didn't do well and just kind of improve on what I did.''

    Without Robinson, Lee is expected to get more opportunities alongside Shorts and Hurns.

    Lee, also a second-round draft pick, has 13 receptions for 141 yards. He missed chunks of time because of nagging hamstring injuries.

    ''It went from the right to the left,'' Lee said. ''It was big. When it comes down to the coaches and the decisions, it's based on how you feel. One thing that's big for a receiver is your hamstrings and legs. If you have a situation with those, it becomes a problem as far as putting you out there and giving you the ability to do the things you need to do with those types of injuries. It just takes one vertical for you to pull up and mess it up again.''

    And when was on the field, he looked lost at times.

    ''I'm much more prepared,'' he said. ''I've got a great understanding and won't be surprised in certain looks. I was surprised by certain things, didn't feel like I fully had it. I'm still going through the process and working hard in practice. I'm working and I think I'll be OK.''

    Jacksonville also expects tight end Marcedes Lewis to return following the bye week. Lewis has missed the past eight games with a high ankle sprain. He is scheduled to be activated off the injured reserve/designated for return list and expected to start at Indianapolis.

    The Jaguars waived linebacker Dekoda Watson and activated rookie cornerback Aaron Colvin off the reserve/non-football injury list.

    The team also claimed cornerback Teddy Williams off waivers from Chicago and waived cornerback Peyton Thompson.

    Watson signed a three-year contract worth $6.25 million in free agency to be a starting outside linebacker. The deal included $1.5 million guaranteed.

    But Watson never really fit in. He had groin surgery in the offseason, missed much of the preseason and made one start. He had eight tackles in nine games.

    Colvin, a standout at Oklahoma, was a fourth-round draft pick. He tore a knee ligament during a Senior Bowl practice and has been recovering since. Bradley said Colvin will play some in nickel situations against the Colts.


    ------------------------------------------------------
    49ers LB Patrick Willis out for season

    November 11, 2014

    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Patrick Willis so hoped he would be able to withstand the pain in his troublesome toe and play on this season, and ultimately help lead the San Francisco 49ers to another playoff run.

    Instead, Willis will miss the remainder of the season and require surgery for a strained muscle in his left big toe. He was placed on the season-ending injured reserve list Tuesday after getting hurt in the third quarter at St. Louis on Oct. 13.

    ''It's very frustrating,'' Willis said. ''My teammates mean everything to me and I want to be out there experiencing all the good times and all the rough times with them.''

    A Pro Bowler in his first seven NFL seasons, Willis had missed six games in his career before this latest injury sidelined him for the final 10 games of 2014 for San Francisco (5-4). He had 34 tackles and an interception this season for the Niners.

    Willis is a captain and leader of a 49ers team that has reached the NFC championship game in each of the past three seasons.

    ''We haven't lost him in the locker room,'' linebacker Michael Wilhoite said. ''We're still all together here. It hurts but at same time we need to keep going out and win games.''

    Willis had hoped the injury wasn't so serious to sideline him long term. He missed practice last week after returning in a limited role the previous week.

    ''This is something I have been dealing with for a long time now,'' Willis said. ''I want to get it done so I can get back to rehabbing and get back to form.''

    Willis indicated his toe has been bothering him for several years and that he continued to play as long as he could stand the pain.

    ''I always think I can do more than I'm supposed to and tried to compensate,'' Willis said. ''Sometimes guys are hurting, and hurting bad, and still go out and play. You could say I should have done this earlier, before I hurt it worse against the Rams.''

    After resting through the Oct. 26 bye, Willis was back as part of the 49ers' full active squad on the field for the start of practice Oct. 29, but he had been limited primarily to individual work.

    ''I felt, maybe just give it a couple of weeks but it just didn't get better,'' Willis said. ''I feel like I have five or six years left in my body so I have to think about the big picture. I promise you when I come back I will be bigger and better than I was.''

    This is a big loss to one of the NFL's leading defenses, though the 49ers are expected to have Aldon Smith back Sunday on the road against the New York Giants.

    ''Hopefully I can get in there and play as much as I have,'' Smith said. ''I want to stay strong, keep my eyes on the prize and I'm ready to do that.''

    Smith is set to begin practicing this week after serving his nine-game suspension by the NFL for violations of the league's substance-abuse and personal-conduct policies.

    ''I did everything that was necessary,'' Smith said. ''I've learned a lot and ready to move forward.''

    In addition, 2013 All-Pro NaVorro Bowman could be cleared to begin practice this week, opening a 21-day window for the team to activate him or place him on IR.

    Bowman is recovering from surgery on his left knee after he tore the anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments in a devastating injury in the NFC championship game loss at Seattle last January.

    Rookie Chris Borland has filled in for Willis and been spectacular, recording 18 tackles in a loss to the Rams two weeks ago then 17 more tackles in an overtime win at New Orleans on Sunday.

    ''I'm truly proud of the way he's playing,'' Willis said. ''He's gone out and held down that position.''

    The NFL Network first reported Willis would need toe surgery.

    The Niners signed running back Alfonso Smith to replace Willis on the roster and added linebacker Shayne Skov to the practice squad.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #47
      Inside the Stats - Week 11

      November 11, 2014


      Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

      The college football playoff poll continues to be shuffled like a deck of cards with each passing week. All that really matters, though, is which teams will make the ‘New Year’s Six’ and which four teams will make the playoffs? We’ll know in a month.

      Until then we continue to review teams and their season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

      Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, November 10th, unless noted otherwise.

      PASS THE OIL

      Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

      We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

      NCAAFB: Bowling Green, Middle Tennessee State, North Carolina, NC Sate, Rutgers, South Florida, Texas A&M and Western Kentucky.

      NFL: Carolina, Chicago and San Diego.

      PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

      Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that still quality on ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list.

      What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

      As we head toward Thanksgiving, here’s are list of – of ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

      Play On Dogs: Alabama, Auburn, Baylor, Boise State, *East Carolina, Georgia Tech, *Marshall, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, *Ohio State, TCU, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.

      Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, *Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, North Carolina, *SMU, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

      he Important: An *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

      This week we find Auburn and Georgia Tech in the ‘Play On’ dog list, while North Carolina appears on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.

      GOING INSIDE THE STATS

      These are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Note – there are no plays in the NFL.

      NCAAFB: Georgia Southern and Texas A&M.

      On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

      NCAAFB: Auburn, Pittsburgh and Texas Sate.

      HOT TRENDS

      From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my well-intended database:

      The Chicago Bears are 6-0 ATS at home off back-to-back SU losses when hosting the Minnesota Vikings.

      The Cleveland Browns are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS with a winning record in games off a double-digit victory.

      The Denver Broncos are 8-0 SU and ATS away off an away game.

      The New England Patriots are 7-0 ATS in its last seven away games on Sunday nights.

      The Pittsburgh Steelers are 9-0 SU and ATS away with revenge off a SU away loss.

      The Seattle Seahawks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when seeking double revenge exact (from a pair of SU losses against today’s opponent).

      New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS at home off a SU loss since 2008, including 10-0 SU and ATS in non-division games.

      STAT OF THE WEEK

      The Indianapolis Colts are 1-14 ATS as home favorites versus New England.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #48
        Fins look to solve Bills

        November 12, 2014


        BUFFALO BILLS (5-4) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-4)
        Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Miami -5, Total: 42

        Division rivals clash in a crucial game on Thursday night when the Bills head south to take on the Dolphins.

        Both teams saw win streaks end in Week 10, as Buffalo hosted the Chiefs on Sunday and was unable to come away with a third straight victory, falling 17-13 as a 2.5-point favorite. Miami, meanwhile, lost 20-16 in Detroit as a 3-point road underdog, which ended its three-game win streak (SU and ATS).

        The Dolphins have been dominated by the Bills recently, going 1-4 (SU and ATS) in the past five meetings, including a 29-10 defeat in Buffalo earlier in the season. Last season, the Bills forced three turnovers in a 23-21 victory in Miami as 5.5-point road underdogs.

        Prior to that meeting, however, the Dolphins were 4-1 (SU and ATS) the previous five times they hosted in this series. Since 1992, the Bills are 42-24 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their previous six games, but are just 4-13 ATS after playing a home game over the past three seasons.

        While Buffalo is pretty healthy with only CB Ron Brooks (groin) and WRs Marcus Easley (knee) and Marquise Goodwin (ribs) on the questionable list, Miami will lost starting LT Branden Albert (knee) for the rest of the season last week, and have five other key players all questionable for Thursday in G Daryn Colledge (back), TE Dion Sims (toe), CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle) and LBs Koa Misi (back) and Kelvin Sheppard (hip).

        The Bills had a great chance to move to 6-3 coming off their bye week, but they were unable to beat the Chiefs and must now win in Miami to put themselves in a better position in the AFC playoff race. QB Kyle Orton (1,387 pass yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) threw for 259 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions in the loss to the Chiefs, but completed only 29-of-48 passes (60%) in the game.

        Top WR Sammy Watkins (42 rec, 617 yards, 5 TD) had just four catches for 27 yards in the loss. Orton and Watkins will need to get back on track against the Dolphins, who Watkins caught eight passes for 117 yards and a touchdown against in the first meeting in Week 2. Miami, however, allows just 210.8 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and has held its past three opponents to 33 points combined.

        Buffalo’s defense is what will keep this team in the game no matter how the offense plays. The Bills are allowing a mere 224.6 passing yards per game (7th in NFL) and 96.1 rushing yards per game (8th in NFL) thanks to a league-high 34 sacks.

        The Dolphins were unable to come away with a victory in Detroit, and now must beat a Bills team that really gave them a beating earlier in the season. QB Ryan Tannehill (2,114 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT) struggled in that game, going just 31-of-49 with 241 yards (4.9 YPA), one touchdown and one interception.

        That drops him to 1-4 in his career in this matchup where he's completed only 52% of his passes for 788 yards (158 per game), 4.8 YPA, 7 TD and 5 INT. Top WR Mike Wallace (40 rec, 519 yards, 6 TD) was his top target in the Week 2 defeat, hauling in five passes for 56 yards and a touchdown.

        One guy who will really determine how this team does in the game is RB Lamar Miller (528 yards, 5 TD). Miller got just four carries for 10 yards in the loss to the Lions, as he is dealing with a banged up shoulder and will have to get himself healthy in order to run the way he has been all season (4.8 YPC). The Dolphins will have little chance of winning this game without a successful ground attack.

        Although the Bills hammered this defense early in the season, Miami has really played well defensively in recent weeks. Despite losing to the Lions, the Dolphins did hold an offense that contains a ton of firepower to just 20 points, marking the fourth straight game where they held opponents to 20 points or less. A big reason for this success has been due to 11 takeaways in these four contests. They should be able to put major pressure on Kyle Orton on Thursday.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #49
          Tech Trends - Week 11

          November 11, 2014

          THURSDAY, NOV. 13

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

          BUFFALO at MIAMI...Bills have won and covered three straight in series and four of five after 29-10 win Sept. 14. Buffalo also 3-1 vs. line away TY. "Unders" 4-0-1 last five meetings, Bills "under" 7-2 TY. "Under" and slight to Bills, based on series trends.


          SUNDAY, NOV. 16

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

          HOUSTON at CLEVELAND...Browns 6-3 vs. line TY but only 2-2 as chalk. Browns also "under" five in a row after Cincy win. Slight to "under," based on recent Browns "totals" trends.

          MINNESOTA at CHICAGO...Bears 1-5 SU and vs. line last six in 2014, also 0-3 SU and vs. line as host, 1-7-1 last nine vs. number at Solider Field. Vikes have covered last three meetings. Bears "over" 17-7-1 since Trestman arrived LY. Vikings and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

          PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY...Pack is "over" 8-1 this season and "over" 11-1 last 11 reg. season games. Pack 4-1-1 vs. line last six TY. "Over" and Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

          SEATTLE at KANSAS CITY...KC 8-0 vs. line last eight TY. Hawks 1-3 vs. spread away in 2014 and 1-4 last five vs. line. Chiefs have won and covered last three as host by DD margins. Chiefs "under" 4-1 last five at home. Chiefs and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

          ATLANTA at CAROLINA...Cam "under" 8-3 last 11 at home, but Carolina 1-6-1 SU last eight this season. Resurgent Atlanta has covered two straight. Slight to "under" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

          CINCINNATI at NEW ORLEANS...Saints 20-1 SU, 18-2-1 vs. line at Superdome with Sean Payton on sidelines since 2011. Cincy 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Saints "over" 7-2-1 last ten reg. season. Saints and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

          TAMPA BAY at WASHINGTON...Bucs have covered three straight on road. Skins 1-5 vs. line last six TY, 1-4 last five as favorite. Bucs "over" 4-1 last five away. Bucs and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

          DENVER at ST. LOUIS...Broncos "over" last six and 27-14 reg season since 2012, 51-26-1 dating to late 2009. Also 27-14 vs. spread in reg season since Manning arrived in 2012. Broncos 11-5 as road chalk since 2012. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.

          SAN FRANCISCO at NY GIANTS...Eli only 5-9 as dog since LY, and first five G-Men losses in 2014 by DD margins. Streaky NYG also no covers last three TY. Harbaugh 3-5 vs. line in his worst season yet for SF. Slight to 49ers, based on recent trends.

          OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO...Bolts no SU wins last three or covers last four TY. That was preceded by 10-1 spread run stretching to late 2013. No team has swept spread decisions in season series between these two since 2010, and Oak covered first game on Oct. 12. Raiders 2-2 vs. line for Sparano. Slight to Raiders, based on recent trends.

          DETROIT at ARIZONA...Cards have covered last 4 and 6 of 8 this season, now 13-3-1 last 17 on board for Arians. Lions only 2-2 vs. line away from home TY, 8-16-1 vs. spread last 25 on road. Lions "under" 9-1-1 last 11 since late 2013, Big Red "under" 5-2-1 TY. "Under" and Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.

          NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS...Belichick "over" last six TY, now "over" 51-21-1 in reg season since 2010. Last three "over" vs. Indy since 2011. Colts "over" 7-2-1 since late 2013. Belichick crushed Indy past two seasons (2013 playoff game). If Belichick a dog note 2-0 mark TY in role and 15-4-1 as reg seas dog since 2006. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


          MONDAY, NOV. 17

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

          PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE ...Titans on 1-7 spread run last eight TY and 0-4 vs. line at home, Titans 0-9-1 vs. spread last 10 at Nashville. Steel "over" 9-5 last 14 since late 2013. Steel and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


          TEAMS ON BYE - WEEK 11

          Baltimore Ravens Dallas Cowboys Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #50
            NFL line watch: Raiders-Chargers a feast for Over bettors

            Spread to bet now

            New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

            The Patriots (7-2) have risen to the top of many power rankings but really don’t have a signature road win. Getting this one would be a huge boost, especially with post-Thanksgiving games at Green Bay and San Diego still to come. Both the Pats and Colts (6-3) are coming off their bye week and should be rested and prepared. The line opened at Indy -2.5 and figures to sit there barring any news involving Tom Brady or Andrew Luck. Two things to look for here are New England’s inability to run the ball effectively since Stevan Ridley went down, and the Colts’ propensity to turn the ball over. Unless some sharps throw in some last money, this line should set in cement, so bet it now whichever way you want to go.

            Spread to wait on

            Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3)

            The Browns are in the conversation again for the first time in decades, and the Dog Pound is giddy at the thought that Cleveland could actually win the AFC North. The line in this one opened at Browns -3 and bettors have been pounding Cleveland over a Houston team that has lost four of its last five. The Texans have won twice on the road, but they came at Oakland (season opener) and at Tennessee. If the money remains on Cleveland through mid-week, books may be forced to move it to 3.5 to balance things out. So if you like Houston at 3.5, hang on a bit and you might get your wish by Thursday or Friday. Or perhaps even a few hours before kickoff.

            Total to watch

            Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (44)

            The Chargers have had a week off to think about that embarrassing 37-0 defeat in Miami, and figure to have spent some time working on their offense. Right on cue the winless Oakland Raiders come to down, fresh off their own 41-17 loss to the Broncos this past Sunday. Rest assured San Diego won’t be shut out for a second straight game. In fact, at minimum the Chargers should be in the mid- to high-30s against an Oakland team that is on the fast track to an 0-16 season. This one should be a feast for over players, assuming the Raiders can reach the end zone once or twice.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #51
              NFL
              Dunkel

              [B]Week 11/B]

              Buffalo at Miami
              The Bills (3-1 SU on the road) head to Miami on Thursday night to face a Dolphins team that is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Miami is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Dolphins favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

              THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13

              Game 309-310: Buffalo at Miami (8:25 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 131.783; Miami 139.312
              Dunkel Line: Miami by 7 1/2; 38
              Vegas Line: Miami by 5; 42
              Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5); Under


              SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16

              Game 451-452: Houston at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Houston 128.648; Cleveland 137.022
              Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 46
              Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 41 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3); Over

              Game 453-454: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.309; Chicago 123.689
              Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 43
              Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 46 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Under

              Game 455-456: Philadelphia at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.542; Green Bay 143.011
              Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 8 1/2; 58
              Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 54 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-5 1/2); Over

              Game 457-458: Seattle at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.105; Kansas City 142.477
              Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 7 1/2; 39
              Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 42 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Under

              Game 459-460:Atlanta at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 127.468; Carolina 126.238
              Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 49
              Vegas Line: Carolina by 2; 46
              Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2); Over

              Game 461-462: Cincinnati at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.695; New Orleans 137.678
              Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10; 55
              Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 50 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Over

              Game 463-464: Tampa Bay at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 124.050; Washington 128.630
              Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 41
              Vegas Line: Washington by 7 1/2; 45 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+7 1/2); Under

              Game 465-466: Denver at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.264; St. Louis 129.449
              Dunkel Line: Denver by 12; 54
              Vegas Line: Denver by 9; 50 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Denver (-9); Over

              Game 467-468: San Francisco at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 132.885; NY Giants 130.673
              Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 40
              Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 44 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+4 1/2); Under

              Game 469-470: Oakland at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.438; San Diego 139.575
              Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13; 51
              Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 44 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Over

              Game 471-472: Detroit at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 136.575; Arizona 134.439
              Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 38
              Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 41 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2 1/2); Under

              Game 473-474: New England at Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: New England 143.932; Indianapolis 141.392
              Dunkel Line: New England by 2 1/2; 60
              Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 57 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); Over


              MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17

              Game 475-476: Pittsburgh at Tennessee (8:30 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.419; Tennessee 124.067
              Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8 1/2; 44
              Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 47
              Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Under
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #52
                NFL
                Long Sheet

                Week 11

                Thursday, November 13

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                BUFFALO (5 - 4) at MIAMI (5 - 4) - 11/13/2014, 8:25 PM
                There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                BUFFALO is 4-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
                BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
                4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                Sunday, November 16

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                HOUSTON (4 - 5) at CLEVELAND (6 - 3) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
                There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                MINNESOTA (4 - 5) at CHICAGO (3 - 6) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
                CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
                CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
                CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
                3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                PHILADELPHIA (6 - 2) at GREEN BAY (6 - 3) - 11/16/2014, 4:25 PM
                There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
                PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
                1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                SEATTLE (6 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 3) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                KANSAS CITY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
                KANSAS CITY is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
                SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
                SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
                SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
                SEATTLE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                ATLANTA (3 - 6) at CAROLINA (3 - 5 - 1) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
                There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
                CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
                2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                CINCINNATI (5 - 3 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 5) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                CINCINNATI is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
                NEW ORLEANS is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                TAMPA BAY (1 - 8) at WASHINGTON (3 - 6) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                TAMPA BAY is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
                TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
                WASHINGTON is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
                WASHINGTON is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                WASHINGTON is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                WASHINGTON is 54-84 ATS (-38.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
                WASHINGTON is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
                WASHINGTON is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
                WASHINGTON is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
                WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
                WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
                WASHINGTON is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
                WASHINGTON is 17-40 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
                WASHINGTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
                WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
                1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                DENVER (7 - 2) at ST LOUIS (3 - 6) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
                DENVER is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
                DENVER is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
                ST LOUIS is 139-177 ATS (-55.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
                ST LOUIS is 139-177 ATS (-55.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
                ST LOUIS is 108-140 ATS (-46.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
                ST LOUIS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 4) at NY GIANTS (3 - 6) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                SAN FRANCISCO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
                NY GIANTS are 30-57 ATS (-32.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
                NY GIANTS are 29-52 ATS (-28.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
                NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
                1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                OAKLAND (0 - 9) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 4) - 11/16/2014, 4:05 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                OAKLAND is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
                OAKLAND is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
                OAKLAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
                SAN DIEGO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
                SAN DIEGO is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
                3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                DETROIT (7 - 2) at ARIZONA (8 - 1) - 11/16/2014, 4:25 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                DETROIT is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
                DETROIT is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
                DETROIT is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
                DETROIT is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
                DETROIT is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
                DETROIT is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
                ARIZONA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                ARIZONA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
                ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
                ARIZONA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
                ARIZONA is 2-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
                1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 3) - 11/16/2014, 8:30 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                INDIANAPOLIS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
                INDIANAPOLIS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
                INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
                INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
                INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
                INDIANAPOLIS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
                INDIANAPOLIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
                INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
                INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
                NEW ENGLAND is 83-48 ATS (+30.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
                NEW ENGLAND is 163-125 ATS (+25.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
                NEW ENGLAND is 101-72 ATS (+21.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
                NEW ENGLAND is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
                NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
                2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                Monday, November 17

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                PITTSBURGH (6 - 4) at TENNESSEE (2 - 7) - 11/17/2014, 8:30 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                PITTSBURGH is 93-64 ATS (+22.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
                TENNESSEE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
                TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
                TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
                TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
                1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #53
                  NFL
                  Short Sheet

                  Week 11

                  Thursday, Nov. 13

                  Buffalo at Miami, 8:25 ET
                  Buffalo: 4-13 ATS coming off a home game
                  Miami: 19-8 UNDER against conference opponents


                  Sunday, Nov. 16

                  Houston at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
                  Houston: 18-5 UNDER in road games off a non-conference game
                  Cleveland: 27-9 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

                  Minnesota at Chicago, 1:00 ET
                  Minnesota: 3-13 ATS in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less
                  Chicago: 13-4 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses

                  Philadelphia at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
                  Philadelphia: 10-2 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better
                  Green Bay: 8-1 OVER in all games

                  Seattle at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
                  Seattle: 6-18 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more
                  Kansas City: 30-14 ATS in home games in non-conference games

                  Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
                  Atlanta: 46-28 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points
                  Carolina: 29-15 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games

                  Cincinnati at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
                  Cincinnati: 22-10 UNDER in road games after a loss by 14 or more points
                  New Orleans: 6-17 ATS against AFC North division opponents

                  Tampa Bay at Washington, 1:00 ET
                  Tampa Bay: 5-13 ATS against conference opponents
                  Washington: 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

                  Denver at St Louis, 1:00 ET
                  Denver: 26-12 ATS as a favorite
                  St Louis: 36-55 ATS off a road loss

                  San Francisco at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
                  San Francisco: 11-3 ATS as a road favorite
                  NY Giants: 0-6 ATS off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more

                  Oakland at San Diego, 4:05 ET
                  Oakland: 48-71 ATS off a division game
                  San Diego: 19-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

                  Detroit at Arizona, 4:25 ET
                  Detroit: 31-50 ATS off a home win
                  Arizona: 6-0 ATS against conference opponents

                  New England at Indianapolis, 8:30 ET
                  New England: 15-5 OVER off a home win
                  Indianapolis: 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games


                  Monday, Nov. 17

                  Pittsburgh at Tennessee, 8:30 ET
                  Pittsburgh: 93-64 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
                  Tennessee: 1-8 ATS off a road game
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    NFL

                    Week 11

                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Trend Report
                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                    Thursday, November 13

                    8:25 PM
                    BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
                    Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
                    Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
                    Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games


                    Sunday, November 16

                    1:00 PM
                    CINCINNATI vs. NEW ORLEANS
                    Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
                    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
                    New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

                    1:00 PM
                    SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY GIANTS
                    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing NY Giants
                    San Francisco is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
                    NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games

                    1:00 PM
                    TAMPA BAY vs. WASHINGTON
                    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
                    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
                    Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

                    1:00 PM
                    MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Chicago
                    Minnesota is 2-11-1 SU in its last 14 games ,on the road
                    Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
                    Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

                    1:00 PM
                    ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
                    Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
                    Carolina is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
                    Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

                    1:00 PM
                    DENVER vs. ST. LOUIS
                    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
                    Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
                    St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
                    The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Denver

                    1:00 PM
                    HOUSTON vs. CLEVELAND
                    Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
                    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
                    Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
                    Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

                    1:00 PM
                    SEATTLE vs. KANSAS CITY
                    Seattle is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
                    Seattle is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Kansas City
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
                    Kansas City is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home

                    4:05 PM
                    OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
                    Oakland is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against San Diego
                    San Diego is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Oakland
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

                    4:25 PM
                    DETROIT vs. ARIZONA
                    Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
                    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 11 games when playing Arizona
                    Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
                    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 11 games when playing Detroit

                    4:25 PM
                    PHILADELPHIA vs. GREEN BAY
                    Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
                    Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
                    Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

                    8:30 PM
                    NEW ENGLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
                    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
                    New England is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
                    Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
                    Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home


                    Monday, November 17

                    8:30 PM
                    PITTSBURGH vs. TENNESSEE
                    Pittsburgh is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
                    Pittsburgh is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
                    Tennessee is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
                    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      NFL
                      Armadillo's Write-Up

                      Week 11

                      Thursday
                      Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (5-4)-- Bills (-1) won first meeting 29-10 in Week 2, running a kick back for TD and two takeaways leading to 22-yard edge in field poistion. Season series has been split three of last five years; Bills lost four of last six visits here, with all four losses by 9+ points. In last four games, Bills have been -3/-4/+6/-2 in turnover ratio; they've won three of four road games (dog in all four) with only loss at Houston, 23-17. Miami won four of last six games, with all four wins by 13+ points; they're 2-2 SU at home, 1-1 as HFs. Dolphins won field position in last seven games, are 5-1 when they get 2+ takeaways, 0-3 otherwise. Bills have 13 giveaways (-3) in last three games. Under is 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games, 4-0 in Miami's last four. Losing LT Albert is very bad news for Miami offense.




                      NFL

                      Thursday, November 13

                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Thursday Night Football betting preview: Bills at Dolphins
                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 42)

                      After suffering heart-breaking setbacks in their last outings, the Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills battle for playoff survival when they meet in Miami on Thursday night. The Dolphins dropped a narrow decision to Detroit on Sunday when Matt Stafford threw a touchdown pass with 29 seconds to play. The Bills blew a fourth-quarter lead of their own after a muffed a punt proved costly in a 17-13 loss to the Chiefs.

                      It is a crucial affair as both teams trail New England by two games in the AFC East standings. Including a 29-10 decision in Week 2, the Dolphins have lost three straight to the Bills, their longest losing streak since going 0-4 from 2006-07. Points could be tough to come by as Miami ranks fifth and Buffalo is seventh in total defense.

                      TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL.

                      LINE HISTORY: After opening the Dolphins at -5, the line has jumped back and forth between that number and -5.5, where it currently sits. The total opened at 42.5 and has moved down slightly to 42.

                      INJURY REPORT: Bills - WR Marcus Easley (questionable Thursday, knee), CB Ron Brooks (questionable Thursday, groin), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable Thursday, ribs). Dolphins - G Billy Turner (questionable Thursday, foot), CB Cortland Finnegan (questionable Thursday, neck), G Darren Colledge (questionable Thursday, back), TE Dion Sims (questionable Thursday, toe), LB Kelvin Sheppard (questionable Thursday, hip), LB Koa Misi (questionable Thursday, back).

                      WEATHER REPORT: There is a 20 percent chance of rain at game time with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the low 70's with a five mile per hour wind blowing across the field.

                      POWER RANKINGS: Bills (-0.75) - Dolphins (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Dolphins -5.78

                      ABOUT THE BILLS (5-4, 4-5 ATS, 2-7 O/U): Hampered by groin injuries running back Fred Jackson returned from a two-game absence and totaled 49 yards from scrimmage and rookie sensation Sammy Watkins struggled against the Chiefs on Sunday. Watkins hauled in just 4-of-10 targets for 27 yards after amassing 279 yards his prior two games and he totaled 117 yards and a score in the team's first meeting. E.J. Manuel was under center for Buffalo when the Bills beat the Dolphins earlier in the season but Kyle Orton has completed 65.6 percent of his passes and is 3-2 since taking over.

                      ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (5-4, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U): Miami lost Knowshon Moreno to a season-ending ACL injury in the third week of the season. Since then Lamar Miller has excelled but he entered last week's game battling a shoulder injury and had five only touches for six total yards in the contest. Miller says he'll play on Thursday which will take some of the burden off improving quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has thrown 15 scoring passes and also become a threat with his legs rushing for 245 yards on the season.

                      TRENDS:

                      * Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
                      * Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
                      * Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
                      * Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

                      CONSENSUS: Almost 58 percent of wagers are backing the Dolphins as 5.5-point favorites.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Bills at Dolphins

                        November 12, 2014

                        Week 11 of the NFL begins in South Florida on Thursday night with a pseudo-playoff game inside the AFC between the Dolphins and Bills. Even though there is still seven games to go in the regular season, the loser of this game takes a major step back in the AFC Wild Card race, as neither of these teams will likely catch New England in the AFC East.

                        Both Miami and Buffalo enter play at 5-4 on the season as each team lost last week after holding a fourth quarter lead. The Dolphins’ offense didn’t do much against a terrific Detroit defense, as their lone touchdown came one play following a blocked field goal return to set up Miami inside the 5-yard line. Miami allowed a late Matthew Stafford touchdown in a 20-16 defeat, snapping a three-game straight-up and against the spread winning streak.

                        The Bills built a 13-3 lead heading into the final quarter against the Chiefs last Sunday, but Kansas City found the end zone twice in a 17-13 victory to cash as two-point road underdogs. Following a Kyle Orton touchdown pass to Chris Hogan in the first quarter, the Buffalo offense stalled, kicking two short field goals, while fumbling out of the end zone on a potential touchdown run in the third quarter. Buffalo’s defense limited Kansas City to 278 yards, but the Bills dropped to 1-4 ATS at home this season.

                        The roller-coaster ride known as the Miami Dolphins franchise has stayed true this season, starting 3-2 prior to a three-game hot streak, following by a tough road loss. The good news for Joe Philbin’s team is two of their four losses have come to NFC foes, which doesn’t hurt the conference record (4-2) as much. The bad news heading into Thursday (and the rest of the season) for the Dolphins is the loss of top offensive tackle Branden Albert, who suffered a torn ACL and MCL in last week’s defeat at Detroit. Miami ranks seventh in the league in rushing yards per game (127.6), but racked up just 50 yards on the ground against the Lions.

                        This series has been owned recently by Buffalo, who is 3-1 against Ryan Tannehill and Miami since 2012. The Bills swept the Dolphins last season, which included a 19-0 shutout at home in Week 16 to put a major damper on Miami’s playoff hopes. When these teams hooked up back in Week 2 in western New York, the Bills took care of business as 1 ½-point home favorites, 29-10. Miami’s ground game was limited to 80 yards, while Buffalo put the game out of reach with an E.J. Manuel touchdown pass to rookie standout Sammy Watkins to give the Bills a commanding 13-point third quarter lead.

                        That was the last game that Manuel would win under center, as Orton took over at quarterback in Week 5 for the former Florida State signal-caller. Orton rallied the Bills from a 14-0 deficit in his first start at Detroit, as Buffalo pulled off a 17-14 victory as 4 ½-point road underdogs. Under Orton, Buffalo has put together a 3-2 record, which includes an away divisional rout of the Jets in Week 8.

                        The Dolphins have had their ups and downs at Sun Life Stadium this season, splitting four games. Miami erased an early 10-point deficit to shock New England in the season opener, 33-20, while destroying San Diego, 37-0 in Week 9 as three-point favorites. However, the Dolphins slipped up in a 34-15 setback to Kansas City in Week 3, while giving up a touchdown in the final seconds to Green Bay in Week 6, which could be a loss that can haunt the Dolphins in the competitive AFC Wild Card race.

                        How important is this game within the AFC playoff picture? Assuming New England, Indianapolis, and Denver win their respective divisions, three spots are left up for grabs with eight teams sitting above .500 fighting for those positions. All four clubs in the AFC North have a winning percentage above .600, while Kansas City has the head-to-head tiebreaker against Miami and Buffalo. The biggest detriment for the Bills is their 2-4 record within the AFC, as wins over the Bears, Lions, and Vikings out of conference may not be helpful in this logjam.

                        Miami is riding a four-game ‘under’ streak, as the Dolphins have given up just five touchdowns during this stretch. Buffalo is one of the top ‘under’ teams in the league at 7-2 overall, while going ‘under’ in three of four games away from Ralph Wilson Stadium. However, the Bills are 4-2 to the ‘over’ in their past six contests against division opponents since last season.

                        VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his spin on this matchup, "The yardage numbers are fairly similar for these teams with Miami having small edges on both sides of the ball, but also through a slightly weaker schedule. Buffalo has moved the ball well since moving to Orton at quarterback, but the scoring has not always added up, settling for field goals far too often in several games this season. While the winner will still have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs, the loser is almost certainly out of the picture as this should be a tense battle between two of the better defensive teams in the league."

                        The primetime ‘over’ run seems like a broken record, but it needs to be mentioned when showcasing night matchups. Through 31 games under the lights this season, the ‘over’ has hit 24 times, which equals a 77% clips. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in each of the past two Thursday contests between New Orleans/Carolina and Cleveland/Cincinnati.

                        The Dolphins are currently a 5 ½-point favorite at most books, while total sits at 42. Weather will not be issue with temperatures in the mid 70’s and no rain, as things get going at Sun Life Stadium at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Sunday's Top Action

                          November 14, 2014


                          SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-3) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-3)
                          Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Kansas City -2, Total: 42

                          Two of the league’s best defensive teams clash on Sunday when the Chiefs host the Seahawks.

                          Seattle has put together three straight victories, including a 38-17 home beatdown of the Giants last week when the club gained 510 yards, including 350 on the ground. Kansas City is also red-hot, having won-and-covered in six of the past seven games, including four in a row. Its defense is allowing just 10.0 PPG over the past three contests. The Chiefs won 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites when these teams last met on Nov. 28, 2010, but Kansas City has dominated this former division rival at Arrowhead Stadium since 1992, going 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS. Over the past three seasons, the Seahawks are 15-4 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game, and 9-1 ATS as an underdog. Kansas City, however, is 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive Unders this season and 30-14 ATS in non-conference home games since 1992.

                          Both teams are dealing with a wealth of injuries, with the most notable names being Seahawks questionable defenders LB Malcolm Smith (groin) and S Kam Chancellor (groin), while K.C. has six key players unlikely to suit up with RB Cyrus Gray (IR, knee), TE Anthony Fasano (knee), WRs Donnie Avery (groin) and A.J. Jenkins (shoulder), as well as CBs Chris Owens (knee) and Jamell Fleming (hamstring).

                          The Seahawks have won three straight games and five of the past seven despite struggling a little early in the year. This defense is still a force to be reckoned with, allowing just 227.2 passing yards per game (8th in NFL) and 79.8 rushing yards (4th in league). Offensively, QB Russell Wilson (1,841 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has really struggled passing the ball recently at 27-of-52 with 351 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT in the past two weeks. But Wilson rushed for 107 yards and a touchdown in the win over New York, showing that he's a true dual-threat for defenses to plan against. But he’ll need to pass the ball better if this team is going to go anywhere.

                          Fortunately for Seattle, RB Marshawn Lynch (689 rush yards, 9 TD) has been on a tear the past two weeks. Lynch rushed for 67 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders two weeks ago and followed it up with 140 yards and 4 TD against the Giants last week. The Seahawks are going to pound away with the run game in this one, as Kansas City is most vulnerable defending the run. They’re allowing 115.6 rushing yards per game this season (20th in NFL) on 4.7 yards per carry (30th in league).

                          The Chiefs went into Buffalo last week and came away with a 17-13 victory. This is one of the top defensive teams in the NFL, allowing just 205.3 passing yards per game (1st in NFL) and 16.8 points per game (2nd in league). Their impermeable secondary will look to capitalize on any mistakes that Russell Wilson makes in the game. On offense, this team goes as far as RB Jamaal Charles (533 rush yards, 6 TD) takes them. The Chiefs’ superstar rushed for 89 yards and a touchdown against the Bills, giving him five touchdowns over the past four weeks. As has been the case his entire career, QB Alex Smith (1,869 pass yards, 11 TD, 4 INT) does just enough for this team to win games. Smith does not turn the ball over and makes all the throws he needs to make to keep the Chiefs in nearly every game. He has not thrown an interception since Week 5 against the 49ers. One guy who is starting to play well for this team is WR Dwayne Bowe (39 rec, 491 yards). He has not had a receiving touchdown this season, but has at least five receptions in each of the past four weeks. Bowe had eight catches for 93 yards in the win over Buffalo and it’s only a matter of time before he finds the end zone.

                          PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (7-2) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3)
                          Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -6, Total: 54.5

                          Two of the NFC’s top teams clash on Sunday when the Eagles visit the Packers. Green Bay is 5-1 (SU and ATS) in its past six games, while Philadelphia is 4-1 (SU and ATS) in its past five contests.

                          Packers QB Aaron Rodgers threw for six touchdowns in the first half of a 55-14 win over the Bears on Sunday night, and will now lead his team into a matchup with the Eagles, who are a bottom-10 team when defending the pass. However, Philadelphia is coming off of a dominant 45-21 victory over the Panthers where it forced five Carolina turnovers. Last season, the Eagles beat Green Bay 27-13 as 1.5-point road favorites. Rodgers was injured that game, which left Seneca Wallace and Scott Tolzien as the only quarterbacks on the Packers roster. Green Bay is 5-3 SU, but 3-5 ATS, when hosting the Eagles since 1992. Twelve of the 16 games played between these teams in that time have gone Under the total.

                          The Eagles are 5-2 ATS this season when playing on a grass field and 4-1 ATS after having winning two of their previous three games. Green Bay, meanwhile, is 25-12 ATS after gaining 7+ yards per play in its previous game since 1992. The injury list is pretty small for both teams with the only recent injuries being Philly G Todd Herremans (bicep) and LB DeMeco Ryans (Achilles) both landing on IR early this week, while the only new Packers injury is to seldom-used WR Kevin Dorsey (foot), who is considered questionable.

                          Philadelphia is coming off an excellent performance in all facets against the Panthers, winning 45-21. The Eagles defense forced five turnovers in the game, while allowing just 317 total yards. They’ll need to at least somewhat slow down Aaron Rodgers and company if they’re going to win this game. In the Week 10 win over Carolina, QB Mark Sanchez (534 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT) played very well in his first game as the Eagles’ starter filling in for injured QB Nick Foles (collarbone). Sanchez was 20-of-37 with 332 yards and two touchdowns, and showed some instant chemistry with rookie WR Jordan Matthews (39 rec, 451 yards, 5 TD) who caught seven passes for 138 yards and two touchdowns.

                          Sanchez will need to do a better job of getting top WR Jeremy Maclin (48 rec, 828 yards, 8 TD) involved. Maclin had 150+ receiving yards in the two games prior to Sanchez becoming the starter. RB LeSean McCoy (641 rush yards, 2 TD) rushed for just 19 yards in the win over Carolina, but did find the end zone in garbage time. He also ran all over the Packers in last year's meeting with 155 yards on 25 carries (6.2 YPC). The Eagles will likely go back to featuring McCoy heavily against a Packers defense that is allowing 142.6 rushing yards per game (30th in NFL).

                          Green Bay hosted the Bears on Sunday night and completely shredded its division rival for 451 total yards in a 55-14 blowout. QB Aaron Rodgers (2,407 pass yards, 25 TD, 3 INT) threw for 315 yards and six touchdowns in the game and did pretty much all of that in one half of action. Rodgers now gets to face an Eagles defense that is allowing 251.7 passing yards per game (22nd in NFL). WRs Jordy Nelson (56 rec, 889 yards, 8 TD) and Randall Cobb (44 rec, 650 yards, 10 TD) combined for 10 receptions, 224 yards and three touchdowns in the win over the Bears. The two of them should be able to keep their momentum heading into a matchup with this porous Eagles secondary.

                          One player who has really stepped his game up in recent weeks is RB Eddie Lacy (478 rush yards, 4 TD). After a disastrous start to the season, Lacy is now up to 4.0 yards per carry on the year. He was a force against the Bears, rushing for 50 yards while also catching three passes for 68 yards and a touchdown. He ran poorly in this meeting last year (73 yards on 24 carries, 3.0 YPC), but if Lacy can get himself going against this Philadelphia team, then the Packers will have plenty more room to throw the football.

                          DETROIT LIONS (7-2) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (8-1)
                          Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Arizona -1, Total: 41

                          NFC powerhouses clash Sunday when the 7-2 Lions head to the desert to take on the 8-1 Cardinals.

                          Detroit got WR Calvin Johnson (29 rec, 461 yards, 3 TD) back from an ankle injury last week and the superstar caught seven passes for 113 yards and a touchdown in a 20-16 victory over Atlanta, giving the team its fourth straight SU win. Arizona won its fifth straight game (SU and ATS) by a 31-14 score against the Rams, but starting QB Carson Palmer tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season. The Cardinals have dominated this series recently, going 10-5 SU (9-6 ATS) versus the Lions since 1992, which includes a 7-1 mark (SU and ATS) at home. Eight of the past 10 games played between these teams have gone Over the total. Since 1992, the Detroit is 38-21 ATS versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or less rushing yards per game, while Arizona is 10-1 ATS versus defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse over the past two years.

                          RB Reggie Bush (ankle) and TEs Joseph Fauria (ankle) and Eric Ebron (hamstring) are listed as questionable for the Lions, while two offensive linemen are considered doubtful due to knee injuries, G Larry Warford and OT LaAdrian Waddle. In addition to Palmer's injury, the Cardinals have two players considered questionable in RB Stepfan Taylor (calf) and LB Desmond Bishop (hamstring).

                          The injury-riddled Lions have rarely been at full strength this season, but the team has found a way to gut out victories. QB Matthew Stafford (2,496 pass yards, 13 TD, 8 INT) threw for 280 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the Lions’ victory over the Dolphins one week ago. Last season, Stafford threw for 278 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in a 25-21 loss in Arizona. His main target, WR Calvin Johnson (461 rec yards, 3 TD in 6 games) could have a tough game coming for him. Johnson will see plenty of time matched up against CB Patrick Peterson (2 INT), who is one of the best cover corners in football. If Johnson is not able to get open, then WR Golden Tate (66 rec, 909 yards, 3 TD) will likely be in for a huge game.

                          Detroit is going to need to get its ground game going, which is why they could really miss RB Reggie Bush (191 rush yards, 1 TD) if he's unable to play. RB Joique Bell (357 rush yards, 3 TD) has rushed for just 131 yards on 42 carries (3.1 YPC) over the past three weeks. He is a good between-the-tackles runner, but the Lions are missing the explosiveness of Bush on the outside. This Detroit defense continues to dominate opponents, allowing just 212.1 passing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and 71.3 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL).

                          With Carson Palmer out for the season, QB Drew Stanton (614 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) is now starting under center for the Cardinals. Stanton played well in Palmer’s absence earlier in the season, most noticeably throwing for 244 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in a win over the 49ers. With Stanton at quarterback, the Cardinals will heavily feature RB Andre Ellington (582 rush yards, 3 TD). Ellington rushed for just 23 yards on 18 carries in the Cardinals’ win over St. Louis in the last game, but he did find the end zone once and also added five receptions for 19 yards through the air. It’s going to be a struggle for him to run against this Lions defensive front, but he’ll need to get it going if Arizona is going to win this game at home.

                          WR Larry Fitzgerald (44 rec, 625 yards, 2 TD) had been heating up before Carson Palmer went down, but he’ll look to stay the course with Stanton under center. Fitzgerald had nine catches for 112 yards in the win over the Rams, and it was his second game with 100+ yards in the past three weeks. The Cardinals will keep targeting him in the offense, as he has been their most consistent receiver in recent weeks. Arizona’s defense is allowing only 78.6 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL) but also a miserable 274.2 passing yards per game (30th in NFL). That is not a good combination as it faces a pass-heavy Lions team.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Sharp Moves - Week 11

                            November 13, 2014


                            We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 11!

                            All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.

                            (Rotation #466) St. Louis +9 – This isn't really particularly shocking that the Rams are sharp. They have changed quarterbacks once again back to QB Shaun Hill, and we aren't all that sure what that is going to do to the rest of the team. What we do know is that QB Peyton Manning has a history of destroying teams like this, and in a strange twist, he might be more comfortable playing here on the road at the Edward Jones Dome than he is playing in his own stadium in the elements. However, we have already seen the Rams take down the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks this year. Could the Broncos end up being next in line?

                            Opening Line: St. Louis +9.5
                            Current Line: St. Louis +9
                            Public Betting Percentage: 74% on Denver

                            (Rotation #474) Indianapolis -3 – What is this? A favored home team actually being sharp on Sunday Night Football? It's a rarity for sure, especially when you consider the fact that this is an Indianapolis team which has a history of being very square. That said, the "more square" team is New England in this game for sure. QB Tom Brady and the Pats have made virtually no mistakes over the course of the last month of the season, including beating the Broncos at home. That said, if you take away that one game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indy has been pretty darn flawless, too. QB Andrew Luck should be in for another 300+ yard game against a New England secondary that just allowed 438 yards to the Broncos.

                            Opening Line: Indianapolis -2.5
                            Current Line: Indianapolis -3
                            Public Betting Percentage: 57% on New England

                            (Rotation #476) Tennessee +5.5 – This is far less of a stunner. The Titans are perceived to be a tremendously inferior team to the Steelers, and even though this game is played in Nashville, public bettors don't really seem to care. QB Ben Roethlisberger just hasn't played well on the road this year. Pittsburgh has fewer touchdowns on the road in five games than Roethlisberger had all by himself in those two games where he threw six touchdowns in each. The Titans are two weeks removed from their bye, and they are destined to get a heck of a lot better as QB Zach Mettenberger continues getting his practice time in. Keep in mind as well that Pittsburgh's linebackers and safeties are all sorts of banged up at the moment. If there is a coach who could exploit these injuries, it is Ken Whisenhunt. An upset could be in the making.

                            Opening Line: Tennessee +5.5
                            Current Line: Tennessee +5.5
                            Public Betting Percentage: 74% on Pittsburgh
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              SNF - Patriots at Colts

                              November 14, 2014


                              NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-2) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-3)

                              Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
                              Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 57.5

                              The Patriots look to win their sixth straight game when they visit the Colts on Sunday night.

                              Both teams should be well-rested after having their byes last week that followed five straight wins (4-1 ATS) for New England, and six wins in the past seven contests (6-1 ATS) for Indianapolis. The Patriots have won four straight meetings with the Colts SU, covering in two of those four. All of those games were, however, played in Foxboro. New England has dropped its past two games SU in Indianapolis, but did cover the spread in both, making the club 12-3 ATS on the road in this series since 1992.

                              This matchup will be tough for Colts QB Andrew Luck, as he’s facing a New England team that is allowing just 235.1 passing yards per game. He is 0-2 (SU and ATS) against the Patriots in his career, throwing for 332.5 yards per game, but only four touchdowns with seven interceptions. New England QB Tom Brady is 11-4 SU in 15 career starts versus Indy with 3,604 passing yards (7.6 YPA), 27 TD and 12 INT. Over the past three seasons, the Colts are 13-1 ATS at home where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. They are also 6-0 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium after scoring 30+ points in their previous game in that span. However, the Pats are 44-22 ATS (67%) when playing as an underdog since Bill Belichick was hired as the head coach.

                              New England is one of the hottest teams in football and that all begins with the magnificent play of QB Tom Brady (2,392 pass yards, 22 TD, 3 INT). During the team's five straight wins, Brady has completed 68% of his passes for 1,601 yards (320.2 per game), 8.1 YPA, 18 TD and only 1 INT. He should keep that going against a Colts defense that is prone to giving up big passing games. TE Rob Gronkowski (49 rec, 663 yards, 8 TD) has been on a tear recently, surpassing 100 receiving yards in each of the past two games with four total touchdowns in those contests. Gronkowski should be able to get himself open across the middle against this Indianapolis defense, and Brady will surely find him if he does.

                              This defense will ultimately decide whether or not the Patriots have a chance to steal a big victory on the road. New England has done well against Andrew Luck in the past, but he is a different quarterback than the guy they faced last year. Darrelle Revis (2 INT) will need to lock down T.Y. Hilton in order for Luck to have an off-game.

                              The Colts have won six of their past seven games and that has plenty to do with the play of their superstar QB Andrew Luck (3,085 pass yards, 26 TD, 9 INT). Luck is an MVP candidate at this point in the season and is coming off a game in which he threw for 354 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs against the Giants. Luck has thrown for 300+ yards in eight of the nine games his team has played this year and will look to keep that up against a rock-solid Patriots secondary. Top WR T.Y. Hilton (56 rec, 937 yards, 3 TD) has been his go-to-guy all season long and has now caught touchdowns in three of the past four games. He had racked up at least 100 receiving yards in three straight games before having just three catches for 71 yards and a touchdown in the blowout win over the Giants.

                              The Colts’ defensive play is where they can really run into trouble. Indianapolis is allowing only 98.1 rushing yards per game (9th in NFL), but the Patriots are not a team that beats you on the ground. They’re going to throw the ball early and often against this Indy defense that is allowing 263.6 passing yards per game (27th in NFL). The Colts will need to be prepared to slow down the Patriots’ passing game and if they do that they could pick up their second straight win.
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • #60
                                Vegas Line Moves - Week 11

                                November 14, 2014

                                LAS VEGAS – How bad did the Carolina Panthers look in a 45-21 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football? So bad that The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas opened Carolina as a 1.5-point favorite hosting the Atlanta Falcons, who are now 1-point chalk for Sunday’s Week 11 NFC South matchup.

                                The betting public seems to believe the 3-6 Falcons have a better shot to challenge the 4-5 New Orleans Saints for the division title than the 3-6-1 Panthers even though two of Atlanta’s wins came against the 1-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That just goes to show how much public perception impacts the odds, with bettors always remembering what they saw last more than the big picture and moving the lines accordingly.

                                While Carolina quarterback Cam Newton still managed to put up some solid fantasy football numbers at the end of the loss at Philadelphia, finishing with 306 yards and touchdowns to go along with three interceptions, he is clearly hurting right now. Newton was sacked a career-high nine times, and conflicting reports came out this week regarding whether or not he is really injured.

                                Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, tends to side with bettors on this line move. Avello said the Falcons have more of a shot to win the NFC South despite a similar record because they have already beaten the Saints once and play an easier schedule down the stretch.

                                “I’ll tell you what, he’s looked awful, hasn’t he?” Avello said of Newton. “This division was kind of opened up for anybody to take it. At the beginning of the year, you looked at it and said New Orleans was going to win this division easily. It doesn’t look to me like Carolina’s going to get there. So maybe Atlanta’s going to be the team that’s going to rally and make a run at it.

                                “This is a huge game for them right now. This is a game that keeps them in the hunt.”

                                Another game that has seen the home team move down close to a Pick’em in Vegas has the Detroit Lions visiting the Arizona Cardinals in a key NFC matchup between division leaders. The NFC North-leading Lions opened as 1.5-point underdogs at The Wynn but were +1 Friday afternoon and Pick’em at some sportsbooks offshore. Of course the NFC West-leading Cardinals will be without starting QB Carson Palmer, who suffered a torn ACL in their 35-14 win over the St. Louis Rams last week.

                                However, Avello said he likes backup Drew Stanton taking over for Palmer after going 2-1 in his place earlier this season due to a shoulder injury. Arizona brings an NFL-best five-game winning streak and 8-1 record into this game against the Lions, who are 7-2 after earning a victory in each of their last four. The Cardinals have also covered five straight along with seven of their past eight, and they have won the previous five meetings with Detroit, going 4-1 against the spread.

                                “Stanton gives the team a different look, and to be honest with you, in my opinion, it’s a better look,” Avello said. “What he lacks though is experience, experience in big games. The team’s done great, they’ve covered the spread a lot this year. But they did beat a lot of weak teams in there. They finish out their season with a much tougher schedule. They’re going to be a dog possibly four times.”

                                Two other NFL games on Sunday figure to get a lot of action from bettors, according to Avello. Both come later in the day and feature the highest totals on the board. The first kicks off at 4:25 p.m. (ET), with the Green Bay Packers opening as 5-point home favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Packers have since been bet up to -5.5, with the total surprisingly going down from an opener of 57 down to 55 as of late Friday afternoon. Keep in mind, both teams combined for 100 points last week.

                                “Green Bay-Philly is going to be a good betting game, one of your better betting games of the weekend, I would think,” said Avello.

                                But the Sunday Night Football matchup between two more division leaders figures to be the biggest game of the week. The AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts host the AFC East-leading New England Patriots after both of them were on byes last week. The Colts opened -2.5 (-120) at The Wynn and have since moved to -3 while the total has gone from 57.5 up to 58 for the highest number in Week 11. The OVER is 9-1 in Sunday Night Football games this season, cashing the past four weeks.

                                “I think the Colts game is probably going to get close to 60 by the time it’s all said and done,” Avello said. “Because when the crowd comes in to bet that game on Sunday night, there’s nobody betting that game under. Let’s put it that way. I could see that total even going higher. It seems like there’s been a lot of isolated games this year that have gone over – quite a few.”

                                LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK - WEEK 11 BETTING MOVES

                                Rotation Team Open Current Move

                                451 TEXANS - - -
                                452 BROWNS 3 3 0

                                453 VIKINGS - - -
                                454 BEARS 5 3 -2

                                455 EAGLES - - -
                                456 PACKERS 5.5 5.5 0

                                457 SEAHAWKS 2.5 - -4.5
                                458 CHIEFS - 2 -

                                459 FALCONS - 1 -
                                460 PANTHERS 3 - -4

                                461 BENGALS - - -
                                462 SAINTS 6.5 7 0.5

                                463 BUCCANEERS - - -
                                464 REDSKINS 6.5 7 0.5

                                465 BRONCOS 9.5 9.5 0
                                466 RAMS - - -

                                467 49ERS 3 3.5 0.5
                                468 GIANTS - - -

                                469 RAIDERS - - -
                                470 CHARGERS 9.5 10 0.5

                                471 LIONS - - -
                                472 CARDINALS 3 1 -2

                                473 PATRIOTS - - -
                                474 COLTS 2.5 3 0.5

                                475 STEELERS 4 6 2
                                476 TITANS - - -


                                Per Bettingmoves, Nov. 14 - 6:00 p.m. ET
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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