The bum's nfl november's best bets,trends, stats, news etc !

[StarDust Bum]

Week 12 Tip Sheet

November 22, 2014

Browns at Falcons (-3, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 11 Recap:
-- Cleveland’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt in a 24-7 home loss to Houston as 4 ½-point favorites. The Browns have failed to cover back-to-back games since Week 1 and Week 2, while Cleveland was held to single-digits for just the second this season.
-- Following a 2-6 start, the Falcons have won two in a row and are in the thick of the wide-open NFC South race. Atlanta edged Carolina, 19-17 to improve to 4-0 in division play, but failed to cover as 2 ½-point road favorites. The Falcons won consecutive games for the first time since December 2012, while finishing ‘under’ the total for the sixth straight contest.

Previous meeting: It wasn’t pretty, but the Falcons held off the Browns in 2010 by a 20-10 count in Cleveland. Atlanta sealed the victory with a late interception return for a touchdown, while Roddy White hauled in 101 yards and a touchdown in the win. The Browns are making their first visit to the Georgia Dome since 2006 when Cleveland escaped with a 17-13 triumph.

What to watch for: Not only are the Falcons on a monster ‘under’ streak, but the Browns are riding a six-game ‘under’ stretch, coming off four straight ‘overs’ to start the season. Cleveland has been a strong underdog all season, posting a 3-0-1 ATS record when receiving points, while four of its six wins are against below .500 competition.

Lions at Patriots (-7, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 11 Recap:
-- The Lions saw their four-game winning streak melt in the desert at Arizona in a 14-6 defeat, putting up their lowest point total of the season. Detroit’s stout defense allowed a pair of first quarter touchdowns, while the offense couldn’t get going by racking up just 262 yards in their second road loss of 2014.
-- New England stayed on fire by picking up its sixth consecutive victory in a 42-20 rout of Indianapolis as three-point road underdogs. Jonas Gray rushed for 201 yards and four touchdowns for the Pats, who have now beaten Andrew Luck all three times since he entered the league in 2012.

Previous meeting: The Patriots ripped up the Lions on Thanksgiving back in 2010 at Ford Field, 45-24 as six-point favorites. Tom Brady carved up the Detroit defense for four touchdowns, as the Pats scored the final 28 points of the game after trailing 24-17.

What to watch for: The Lions are 8-1 to the ‘under’ the last nine games, including a 5-0 ‘under’ mark away from Ford Field. New England is riding a seven-game ‘over’ streak, but Bill Belichick’s team is just 2-4 ATS this season in the favorite role.

Bengals at Texans (-1 ½, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 11 Recap:
-- Cincinnati rebounded from an ugly home loss to Cleveland, as the Bengals dominated the Saints as 8 ½-point road underdogs, 27-10. The Bengals won on the road for the first time since opening day at Baltimore, as Andy Dalton threw for three touchdowns and former LSU standout Jeremy Hill rushed for 152 yards in his first game against his hometown Saints in his career.
-- The Texans won for just the second time since the start of October, knocking off the Browns as 4 ½-point underdogs, 23-7. Ryan Mallett made his first start for Houston, throwing a pair of touchdowns, while the Texans ground game performed well in spite of Arian Foster sitting out as Houston rushed for 213 yards to even their mark at 5-5.

Previous meeting: Dalton hasn’t had much luck in his home state of Texas in his short career, losing twice at Houston, both in the playoffs. Houston eliminated Cincinnati in the Wild Card round of the 2012 playoffs, 19-13 as four-point home favorites, as Dalton completed just 14-of-30 passes for 127 yards and an interception. The Texans have won five straight games in the series with the last Cincinnati victory coming back in 2005.

What to watch for: Houston’s four-game ‘over’ streak came to a halt in last week’s ‘under’ at Cleveland, while the Texans own a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record as a favorite this season. Since 2012, the Bengals are 7-1 SU/ATS off a road victory, while posting a 6-3 ATS record in its past nine opportunities as an away underdog.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-7, 41) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 11 Recap:
-- Arizona just keeps winning, no matter the fashion. With Carson Palmer sidelined due to a knee injury, Drew Stanton stepped in and tossed a pair of touchdown passes in a 14-6 win over Detroit to improve to an NFL best 9-1 on the season. The Cardinals also covered for the eighth time in 10 games, as Bruce Arians’ club is now 4-1 ATS in the underdog role.
-- Seattle may have to settle for a Wild Card berth in the bunched up NFC at 6-4 following a 24-20 loss at Kansas City. The Seahawks fell to 2-3 on the road in spite of allowing 298 yards to the Chiefs, as Pete Carroll’s club lost a grand total of three games last season en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title.

Previous meeting: Arizona went into Seattle and snapped the Seahawks’ 14-game home winning streak last December, 17-10 as nine-point underdogs. The Cards won despite four interceptions by Palmer, as Arizona controlled the clock by holding the ball for nearly 37 minutes. These two teams have split the last 10 meetings dating back to 2009.

What to watch for: The Cardinals are playing their first divisional road game of the season, as Arizona has lost five of its past six away contests within the NFC West. The Seahawks have struggled recently in the favorite role by going 1-5 ATS in the last six tries when laying points, while going 2-4 ATS dating back to last season in the previous six as a home favorite of a touchdown or more.

Dolphins at Broncos (-6 ½, 48) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 11 Recap:
-- Miami has won six games this season, all by 13 points or more. The Dolphins fell behind the Bills last Thursday night, 9-3, but scored the final 19 points to beat Buffalo, 22-9 to cash as four-point favorites and avoid the season sweep. Ryan Tannehill threw two touchdown passes, while snapping a personal three-game losing streak to the Bills.
-- The Broncos return home after a shocking loss to the Rams as eight-point road favorites, 22-7. St. Louis jumped out to a 13-0 lead and never looked back, while the Broncos scored the fewest points with Peyton Manning under center since his arrival in Denver back in 2012.

Previous meeting: These teams haven’t hooked up since 2011, when the Broncos erased a 15-0 deficit to stun the Dolphins in overtime, 18-15. And yes, that was the beginning of the Tim Tebow revolution, who led the Broncos to a pair of touchdowns in the final three minutes to force overtime. The Dolphins are making their first trip to Denver since 2008, when Miami pulled off a 26-17 victory as four-point ‘dogs.

What to watch for: Miami is coming off five straight ‘unders,’ including three straight away from Sun Life Stadium. Denver’s six-game ‘over’ streak came to an end in last week’s clunker at St. Louis, while the Broncos are 7-1 SU/ATS since 2012 coming off a loss.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top Action

November 21, 2014


DETROIT LIONS (7-3) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -7, Total: 47.5

The Lions look to bounce back from last week’s loss with a tough road trip versus the sizzling-hot Patriots.

Detroit fell 14-6 in Arizona last week, which snapped a four-game winning streak for the team. Meanwhile, New England dominated the Colts 42-20 in Indianapolis to win its sixth straight contest (5-1 ATS). These teams have met just three times since 2002, with the Patriots winning all three meetings and covering in two of them.

RB Jonas Gray rushed for 201 yards and four touchdowns against Indy last week, but now faces a Lions defense that is allowing just 68.8 rushing yards per game. New England, meanwhile, has held two of the best offenses in football (Denver and Indianapolis) to just 20.5 PPG over the past two weeks.

The Patriots are just 12-26 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992, but are also 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less in the past two years. They are up against a Detroit team that is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won four of its past five games since 1992.

With both RBs Reggie Bush (ankle) and Joique Bell (ankle) listed as probable for the Lions, the only players considered questionable are a pair of linemen, DE Jason Jones (personal) and OT LaAdrian Waddle (ankle). For New England, the only new injury to report is OL Cameron Fleming, who is questionable after suffering a leg injury last week.

The Lions are head to New England after their offense was non-existent in a loss to the Cardinals. QB Matthew Stafford (2,679 pass yards, 13 TD, 9 INT) really struggled in the game, throwing for just 183 yards with no touchdowns and 1 INT. He is going to need to take better care of the football, as he’s now tossed five interceptions in the past four weeks. A good first step for Stafford would be to get the ball into the hands of WR Calvin Johnson (34 rec, 520 yards, 3 TD). Johnson was targeted 12 times against the Cardinals, but had just five catches for 59 yards.

The Lions will need to run some shorter routes just to get the two on the same page again. RB Joique Bell (442 rush yards, 3 TD) ran extremely well against the Cardinals, gaining 85 yards on just 14 carries (6.1 YPC). He also caught three passes for 30 yards. The Lions will need to do a better job of getting him touches, as he’s been extremely productive with the ball in his hands. They’d also be better suited to run the ball more against a solid Patriots pass defense.

Reggie Bush (191 yards, 1 TD), who has missed three of the past five games, including last week, with injuries, could add some much-needed explosiveness to this team. The Lions defense continues to play well, allowing an NFL-best 15.6 PPG and league-best marks in both rushing defense (68.8 YPG) and yards per carry allowed (3.0).

The Patriots are the hottest team in football and they’ve been winning against some of the league’s elite teams. Rookie RB Jonas Gray (332 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 4 TD) was the story of last game, finding the end zone four times and carving up the Colts’ run defense. He will likely get plenty of touches against the Lions, but their run defense is a whole different animal when compared to Indianapolis’.

QB Tom Brady (2,649 pass yards, 24 TD, 5 INT) threw for 257 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the win over the Colts. Brady’s two interceptions were the most he’s had since the Patriots were blown out in Kansas City in Week 4. He should be able to bounce back against the Lions, as he is 2-0 SU against this team in the past five years. In those games, he’s thrown for 323.0 yards per game with four total touchdowns and just one interception.

TE Rob Gronkowski (53 rec, 734 yards, 9 TD) caught four passes for 71 yards and a touchdown against the Colts last Sunday night, giving him five touchdowns over the past three games. He should be targeted early and often against Detroit, as he is a mismatch for any defense when he's healthy.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-1) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Seattle -6.5, Total: 41

The Seahawks look to cool down the Cardinals when the two clash Sunday at CenturyLink Field.

Arizona picked up its sixth straight victory (SU and ATS) by a 14-6 score over the Lions last week, and now face a Seattle team that saw its three-game win streak end with last week's 24-20 loss at Kansas City. The Cardinals actually won last year’s road meeting in this series by a 17-10 score as 8-point road underdogs. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson had some problems in that game, throwing for just 108 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.

Arizona has covered in three of its past six trips to CenturyLink Field, but Seattle is 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) in the past 10 games hosting Arizona, which includes a 58-0 laugher in 2012. But the Cardinals are 7-0 ATS against conference opponents this season and 7-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game over the past two years. Seattle, however, is 8-0 ATS in the past three years as a home favorite of seven points or less.

Arizona star WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee) is likely to play in this one, but both teams have key defensive players listed as questionable with Cardinals LB Desmond Bishop (hamstring) and DE Ed Stinson (toe), as well as Seattle LBs Bobby Wagner (toe) and Brock Coyle (gluteus).

The Cardinals have won their six games by an impressive 10.2 PPG margin, and it doesn’t seem to matter who is playing under center. Last week QB Drew Stanton (920 pass yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) threw for 306 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Lions, who are one of the best defenses in the league. He is not as talented as injured QB Carson Palmer (1,626 pass yards, 11 TD, 3 INT), but he has not backed down from the challenge of being the signal caller for the team with the NFL’s best record.

RB Andre Ellington (624 rush yards, 3 TD) is one guy who will really need to step up his game. Over the past two weeks, Ellington has rushed for just 65 yards on 37 carries (1.8 YPC) and 1 TD. Arizona has done a nice job using him as a receiver out of the backfield, as Ellington ranks third among all NFL running backs with 41 receptions. WR Larry Fitzgerald (46 rec, 658 yards, 2 TD) had just two catches and 33 yards last week, and since he is dealing with a sprained MCL, it could be WR Michael Floyd (26 rec, 454 yards, 4 TD) who takes on a bigger role in this offense. Floyd displayed some serious chemistry with Stanton last game, catching two passes for 54 yards and two touchdowns.

This Arizona defense has been tremendous all season, ranking second in the NFL in scoring defense (17.6 PPG allowed) and third in rushing defense (80.5 YPG allowed), and has been extremely stingy in the past three weeks with only 12.3 PPG and 257.3 total YPG allowed. The Cardinals will need to keep Russell Wilson in the pocket in this game, as he is a nightmare to contain when he starts running well.

The Seahawks went into Kansas City and fell short of picking up a gigantic road victory. QB Russell Wilson (2,019 pass yards, 13 TD, 5 INT) has really struggled in recent weeks, throwing for less than 200 yards in four straight games now. He has just three touchdowns and three interceptions during that span and Seattle will need him to be more effective as a passer and not just a runner.

RB Marshawn Lynch (813 rush yards, 9 TD) has been the guy who has really kept this team afloat offensively. Lynch carried the football 24 times for 124 yards in the loss to Kansas City and although he didn’t find the end zone, he does have six touchdowns over the past three games. Lynch is also useful as a pass catcher, where he’s caught 24 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns this season.

The Cardinals have one of the best run defenses in football, but Lynch should be able to use his physicality to wear them down throughout the course of the game. WR Doug Baldwin (44 rec, 485 yards, 2 TD) was Wilson’s top target against the Chiefs. He caught six of his nine targets for 45 yards and a touchdown in the game. Seattle will need him to be far more consistent going forward. Defensively, the Seahawks allowed Jamaal Charles to do whatever he wanted last game, allowing the Chiefs back to run for 159 yards on just 20 carries (8.0 YPC). Andre Ellington is a very similar type of runner, so they’d be wise to figure out how to stop a talented outside runner in this one.

For the season, Seattle ranks third in the NFL in total defense (306.1 YPG allowed), third in passing defense (215.3 YPG allowed) and seventh in rushing defense (90.8 YPG allowed). The Seahawks also have multiple takeaways in four straight contests.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-4) at DENVER BRONCOS (7-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -7, Total: 47.5

The Broncos look to bounce back from miserable loss to the Rams when they host the surging Dolphins on Sunday.

Miami is coming off a dominant 22-9 win at home over the Bills last Thursday, when it held Buffalo to just 237 yards of total offense. That makes the team 4-1 (SU and ATS) in its past five games where all five opponents have scored 20 points or less.

Denver not only fell 22-7 in St. Louis against a Shaun Hill-led offense last week, but lost three key players to injuries -- RB Montee Ball (groin, out) and WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion, questionable) and TE Julius Thomas (ankle, questionable).

The Dolphins and Broncos have met just five times in the thin air since 1992, and the Fish are 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in those visits. Miami, however, has not seen Peyton Manning in a Broncos jersey just yet. He is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) with 283.7 passing yards per game, 5 TD and 1 INT in his three meetings with the Dolphins since 2009.

Some key betting trends for this matchup include Miami going 38-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents, and 38-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two out of its previous three games since 1992. The Broncos, however, are 9-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game, and 20-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past three seasons.

Miami placed CB Will Davis (knee) on IR last week and will likely be missing CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle, doubtful) as well, which doesn't bode well facing such a potent passing offense. In addition to Ball, Sanders and Thomas, Denver is also missing RB Ronnie Hillman (foot) indefinitely and LB Nate Irving (knee, IR).

The Dolphins picked up a big division win over the Bills on Thursday and now have a chance to kick the Broncos while they’re already down. QB Ryan Tannehill (2,354 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT) was excellent in the win over Buffalo, throwing for 240 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Over the past three weeks, Tannehill has thrown for 6 TD and just 1 INT. The quarterback has struggled as a road underdog though, throwing for an average of just 216.0 yards per game with 15 TD and 17 INT in 16 such games in his career.

WR Jarvis Landry (42 rec, 400 yards, 3 TD) has really come on strong for the Dolphins recently, catching five or more passes in each of the past three games and has two touchdowns over the course of that streak. He’s a much-needed safety blanket over the middle and perfectly complements the boom-or-bust play of speedy WR Mike Wallace (44 rec, 557 yards, 6 TD).

RB Lamar Miller (614 rush yards, 5 TD) ran extremely well last game, gaining 86 yards on 15 carries despite playing with an injured shoulder. The Dolphins will need him to run just as hard if they’re going to have a chance of beating Denver.

Miami’s defense is allowing just 10.5 PPG over the past four weeks, and has forced three or more turnovers in four of the past seven contests.

Peyton Manning (3,301 pass yards, 30 TD, 9 INT) had an off-day in a loss to St. Louis last week with two interceptions, but he still completed 34-of-54 passes (63%) for 389 yards and a touchdown. Manning will need to be smarter with his passes and take much better care of the football against a Miami secondary that is second in the league in passing defense.

With RBs Montee Ball (groin) and Ronnie Hillman (foot) both out, RB C.J. Anderson (201 rush yards) will continue to get a good amount of touches in this offense. Anderson rushed for only 29 yards against the Rams, but he did catch eight passes for 86 yards in that game. Anderson does, however, need to do a better job in pass protection in order to keep Peyton Manning from taking too many hits.

If WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion, probable) is unable to play, WR Wes Welker (30 rec, 264 yards, 1 TD) could see a major increase in playing time. Welker has not been a big part of this offense since being suspended earlier in the season, but has had plenty of success versus the Dolphins in his career with 95 receptions (6 TD) and 1,178 receiving yards in 11 meetings (107 per game). Denver’s defense was an issue against the Rams and will need to do better against a well-balanced Dolphins team.

The Broncos could not get stops when they needed to get off the field, allowing the Rams to go 6-for-17 on third-down conversions. They also failed to force a turnover for the first time since Week 5. If Denver's defense does not step it up, it could have a lot of trouble against Miami.

[StarDust Bum]

Washington +9.5 500 BLOW OUT ( MY NFL GOY )

[baseballdave]

good luck buddy !!! like it myself !!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football: Jets vs. Bills, Ravens at Saints
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 41.5)

With historic levels of snow blanketing Western New York, the Buffalo Bills were forced to switch the date and venue for Sunday's scheduled home game against the New York Jets. The NFL announced Thursday that the matchup between the AFC East rivals will be moved to Detroit on Monday night after nearly six feet of snow pounded Buffalo - with another two-plus feet expected before the weekend. It will be the second trip to Detroit this season for the Bills, who beat the Lions 17-14 on Oct. 5.

The Jets are searching for their first road victory and went into the bye week with some positive momentum after snapping an eight-game skid with a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Nov. 9. Both Buffalo and New York have made quarterback changes this season, and Michael Vick’s turnover-free performance against the Steelers gave the Jets something around which to build. “I don't want to let my teammates down, I don't want to let myself down,” Vick told ESPN New York of the opportunity to start again. “I set high expectations for myself and I'm just trying to fulfill that and have fun doing it as the same time."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, CBS (New York, Buffalo markets only).

LINE HISTORY: When lines for this rescheduled game came out, oddsmakers had the Bills -2.5 but they are now -1.5. The total opened 41.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Jets (+5.0) + Bills (-1.0) = Bills -6.0

ABOUT THE JETS (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Vick got a chance in relief against Buffalo on Oct. 26 and went 18-for-36 with an interception and a pair of lost fumbles in a 43-23 setback. The former No. 1 overall pick was better in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs the following week before breaking out with a pair of touchdown passes as New York ended its eight-game slide against Pittsburgh. “Everything that goes along with this position is difficult and I think I just like the challenge,” Vick told ESPN New York. “I look forward to each and every day I get up, and one thing I'll never do is never take it for granted again."

ABOUT THE BILLS (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 2-8 O/U): Buffalo had to estimate its injury report on Wednesday due to practice being canceled, and quarterback Kyle Orton was estimated to be a limited participant with a toe injury. The rest of the Bills were busy taking to social media with their snow experiences, hoping to ease the sting of back-to-back losses in which the team managed a total of 22 points. Orton, who is not expected to miss the game, is completing under 60 percent of his passes in the last two games and has just one scoring pass in that span after tossing four TDs in the win over the Jets on Oct. 26.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in Bills last six Monday games.
* Underdog is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
* Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC.



Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3, 50.5)

The New Orleans Saints have appeared to be the most talented team in the muddled NFC South Division. However, after consecutive losses at the Superdome, the Saints are fortunate to find themselves in a tie for first place with the Atlanta Falcons. New Orleans can't afford to let any more home games slip away when it hosts the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night.

The Ravens are also locked in a playoff battle in the tight AFC North. Currently in third place, Baltimore snapped a two-game slide by beating Tennessee last time out. The Ravens hope their bye last week will help recharge their bodies for the stretch run and they've beaten the Saints in four of their five all-time meetings, but New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees has won his last six Monday night games.

TV: 8:30 p.m ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened -3.5, briefly went to -4 and are currently -3. The total opened 49.5 and is up to 50.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-2.75) + Saints (+0.75) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -0.5

ABOUT THE RAVENS (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U): After a blazing start Joe Flacco has struggled recently, throwing five touchdown passes and five interceptions over the past four games. Running back Justin Forsett continues to have a breakout season with 721 yards rushing, ranking a surprising seventh in the NFL. Teams from the the AFC North are 8-1-1 against their counterparts from the NFC South this season.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Rookie receiver Brandin Cooks (53, receptions, 530 yards) was lost for the season after undergoing thumb surgery during the week. The sure-handed Cooks' loss will be felt by Brees, who leads the league completing 69.55 percent of his passes. New Orleans, which ranks third in passing offense, hasn't lost three straight games at home since it dropped six in a row in 2005.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, November 24


Bills carry red-hot Under record into MNF

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the best Under plays in the NFL this season, evidenced by the Under going 2-8 in their first 10 contests.

Buffalo plays a "home game" against the New York Jets in Detroit Monday evening due to the disastrous weather conditions that have hit Western New York.

The total for the game is sitting at 41.5. Oddsmakers have the Bills listed as 1.5-point favorites for the AFC East affair.


Trend shows Ravens covering in clashes with Saints

History is showing that when the Baltimore Ravens and the New Orleans Saints get together, it's the Ravens who have been cashing spread tickets.

Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Saints. Drew Brees' club welcome Joe Flacco and the Ravens in the Bayou State in Monday Night Football.

New Orleans is currently 3-point home favorites with an O/U of 50.5.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Ravens at Saints

November 23, 2014

Heading towards Thanksgiving week, NFL fans receive a major treat with a pair of games on Monday night to close out Week 12. Granted, one of the games involves the Jets, but it’s just another contest to bet on against the Bills in Detroit. We’ll take a look at that AFC East battle, while Baltimore and New Orleans is the showcase game down in the Big Easy.

Ravens at Saints (-3, 50) – 8:30 PM EST

New Orleans didn’t lose a home game in 2013 and started 2014 with a 3-0 record at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. However, the Saints stumbled in back-to-back home losses to the 49ers and Bengals to drop to 4-6 on the season, but are still somehow in first place of the NFC South after the Falcons were tripped up by the Browns on Sunday.

The Saints put up their lowest point total of the season in a 27-10 defeat to Cincinnati as 8 ½-point home favorites, while allowing Andy Dalton to torch the New Orleans defense for three touchdowns. Drew Brees didn’t a throw an interception for just the third time in 10 games this season, while going three straight contests without eclipsing the 300-yard mark.

The Ravens are fresh off the bye week, as John Harbaugh’s team is right in the thick of the tight AFC North race. Baltimore begins Monday’s action in last place behind Cincinnati (7-3-1), Pittsburgh (7-4), and Cleveland (7-4), but to be fair, the Ravens own a solid 6-4 record and will be a half-game behind the Bengals with a win at New Orleans.

The last time the Ravens took the field, Baltimore held off Tennessee in Week 10 as 10 ½-point home favorites, 21-7. Justin Forsett rushed for a pair of touchdowns in the win for the Ravens, while Baltimore’s defense limited Tennessee to 210 yards. Baltimore has won four straight home games since losing the season opener to Cincinnati, while snapping a two-game skid following losses to the Steelers and Bengals.

Since 2013, the Saints own a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home off a loss, as the only defeat in this situation came last week to the Bengals. However, New Orleans is just 3-6 ATS this season in the role of a favorite, while going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight times as a home favorite of 3 ½ points or less dating back to 2011.

These teams last met in 2010 in Baltimore when the Ravens knocked off the Saints, 30-24 as one-point favorites. New Orleans racked up just 269 yards, as Brees threw three touchdown passes in the loss. Baltimore won its previous visit to the Big Easy back in 2006, blowing out New Orleans, 35-22, as the Ravens returned two interceptions for touchdowns, as the Saints scored two late touchdowns to make the score look closer.

The Ravens have lost in each of their two opportunities as a road underdog this season, falling at Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, while not covering each time. Baltimore is playing on Monday night for the first time since last December, when the Ravens outlasted the Lions, 18-16. The Saints are in the Monday spotlight for the first time this season, while splitting games against the Dolphins and Seahawks in 2013.

Jets vs. Bills (-2 ½, 42) – 7:05 PM EST

Due to most of western New York being snowed in for nearly a week, this AFC East matchup needed to be moved to Detroit’s Ford Field. The Bills barely were able to practice this week due to the conditions, as Buffalo makes its second trip to Detroit this season, beating the Lions, 17-14 in Week 5. Now, Buffalo hopes not to get tripped up by a Jets’ team with nothing to lose.

New York picked up just its second win of the season in a Week 10 home upset of Pittsburgh, 20-13. The Jets snapped an eight-game losing streak as Rex Ryan’s club jumped out to a 17-0 lead behind a pair of Michael Vick touchdown passes. New York managed just 275 yards, but it was enough to pick up its first victory since Week 1 against Oakland, while forcing four Pittsburgh turnovers.

The Bills grabbed a 9-3 third quarter advantage at Miami last Thursday night, but the Dolphins scored the final 19 points in a 22-9 victory. Buffalo was held to 54 yards on the ground, while losing to Miami for the first time in the past four meetings. Doug Marrone’s team dropped to 5-5 on the season, putting a major nail in Buffalo’s playoff coffin with six teams ahead of them for two Wild Card spots in the AFC.

The last time the Bills saw the Jets in Week 8 at Met Life Stadium, Buffalo dominated New York, 42-23 as three-point underdogs. Kyle Orton completed just 10 passes, but four of those went for touchdowns as the former Purdue standout connected with four different receivers for scores. The Jets turned the ball over six times, including four interceptions of Vick and Geno Smith. After losing six straight meetings to the Jets, the Bills have grabbed three of the past four matchups.

Where does the advantage lie in this contest, being played at a neutral site? When the Vikings and Giants met in Detroit back in 2010 after the Metrodome roof collapsed, New York routed Minnesota, 21-3 as 4 ½-point favorites. Granted, that’s just a one-game sample size, but it’s hard to imagine the advantage lies with the Bills after all the uncertainty and lack of practice all week.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 12

November 23, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL WEEK 12 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 5-7
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 7-5
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-7

NFL OVERALL RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 114-57-1
Against the Spread 83-83-4
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 100-69-1
Against the Spread 84-83-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 84-85-3

Biggest Favorite to Cash

Indianapolis (-13.5) led Jacksonville at halftime, 6-3, but the Colts exploded for 17 points in the second half to cover in a 20-3 victory. The Colts improved to 4-0 inside the AFC South, but they weren't the only double-digit favorite to cash.

Philadelphia (-11) jumped out to a 17-0 advantage over Tennessee before the Titans cut the deficit to 27-17 at halftime. The Eagles opened things up in the second half with three field goals in the fourth quarter to knock off the Titans, 43-24, while sweeping the AFC South.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

The Redskins (+9.5) haven't had the best luck against the number this season, but managed to cover at San Francisco in a 17-13 setback. Washington actually led, 13-10 in the fourth quarter before San Francisco pulled ahead for good. The Redskins entered this matchup at 1-6 ATS the prior seven games, as the lone cover in this stretch came as a 9.5-point underdog at Dallas in a Week 8 overtime triumph.

The Vikings (+7.5) scored a late touchdown for the backdoor cover against the rival Packers in a 24-21 home loss. Despite the defeat, Minnesota managed to hang with a Green Bay team that blew out the Vikings in Week 5 at Lambeau Field, 42-10.

Home/Away

In the early games, home teams went 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS. The Falcons and Texans each lost as a favorite, while the Vikings were the lone underdog to cash in a loss.

Late games watched the hosts put together a 4-0 SU and 1-3 ATS mark. The Seahawks (-7.5) took advantage of a beat-up Cardinals' offense in a 19-3 win to become the only favorite in these late kicks to cover. The Chargers, Broncos, and 49ers all won by four points or less in non-covers.

Including Thursday’s result, home teams went 9-3 SU and 5-7 ATS in the first 12 games.

Lacking a Charge

San Diego (-5) managed a 27-24 victory over a feisty St. Louis team at home, but the Chargers haven't covered in their last six games. The Lightning Bolts were ATS darlings to start the season by posting a 5-0 ATS mark, but the six-game ATS skid is currently the worst stretch in the league.

Patriot Games

New England won its seventh straight game by disposing of Detroit, 34-9 as seven-point home favorites. How hot are the Patriots? New England has covered six times during this hot streak and have won six times by 15 points or more in this stretch to improve to an AFC-best 9-2 on the season.

Chicago Fire

The Bears looked like one of the biggest disasters in the league following blowout losses to New England and Green Bay. Chicago rebounded with back-to-back home victories over Minnesota and Tampa Bay. On Sunday, the Bears overcame a 10-0 deficit to beat the Bucs, 21-13 as 4.5-point home favorites to move their mark to 5-6 as they head to Detroit on Thanksgiving afternoon.

About Time

Oakland finally broke into the win column on Thursday night following an 0-10 start by holding off Kansas City, 24-20. The Raiders covered consecutive games for the first time this season, while cashing at +260 on the money-line.

Who Wants It?

The NFC South may not have an above .500 team make the postseason.

New Orleans 4-6 (Plays Monday vs. Baltimore)
Atlanta 4-7
Carolina 3-7-1
Tampa Bay 2-8

The Falcons have been terrific in divisional play, winning all four games against the NFC South.

Totals

The ‘under’ went 5-2 in the first seven games on Sunday afternoon. Six of the results were clear-cut, while the Browns needed a late field goal at Atlanta to go 'over' the total of 48.5 in a 26-24 victory. The 'over' went 2-2 in the late games, as the Broncos rallied past the Dolphins, 39-36 (47 total) in by far the highest-scoring contest of the day.

Notable streaks that were extended and came to a close are listed below.

The Redskins have hit the 'under' in four of their past five games.

Philadelphia has seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 in its last four.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight for Tampa Bay.

Green Bay finished 'under' the total for the first eight games.

The Patriots finally went 'under' following a seven-game streak of 'overs.' The New England offense has scored 34 points or more during all seven wins in this hot streak.

[StarDust Bum]

nfl ( RATED PLAYS )

NFL RATED PICKS

*****..................................4 - 7

DOUBLE PLAYS......................8 - 8

TRIPLE PLAYS........................16 - 6

BLOW OUTS..........................8 - 3


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/23/14 19-*5-*0 79.17% +*6750 Detail
11/20/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/17/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/16/14 15-*9-*0 62.50% +*2550 Detail
11/13/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
11/10/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/09/14 10-*12-*0 45.45% -*1600 Detail
11/06/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/03/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/02/14 11-*10-*1 52.38% 0 Detail
Totals 62-*41-*1 60.19% +8450

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest are 3-1 this week, 39-31 so far this season, with Jets/Ravens pending tonight.

-- Red Sox offered Pablo Sandoval $95M for five years; no answer yet.

-- West Virginia 78, UConn 68-- Mountaineers win Puerto Rico Classic.

-- Miami 77, Charlotte 58-- Hurricanes win Charleston Classic.

-- Providence 75, Notre Dame 74-- Ed Cooley doing good work with Friars.

-- Three Thanksgiving Day NFL games, six NFC teams. Very unusual.

**********


Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up Week 12 in NFL.........

13) Raiders 24, Chiefs 20-- First win in over a year for Oakland. Chiefs were 2-12 on third down. Raiders ran ball for 179 yards.

12) Browns 26, Falcons 24-- Atlanta is now 0-7 out of division, 4-0 inside it; AFC North teams are 9-1-1 against NFC South. Hoyer threw three picks, Browns had ball in red zone six times, scored one TD, four FGs; despite all that, Browns won.

11) Eagles 43, Titans 24-- Josh Huff ran opening kick back 107 yards for a TD and things went downhill from there for Titans, who were travelling on short week after Monday night home game. Eagles now have ten return TDs this season.

10) Patriots 34, Lions 9-- Detroit didn't score TD on 21 drives on this two-game road trip, losses in Arizona/Foxboro. Jonas Gray was on cover of Sports Illustrated after he ran for 199 yards last week. He didn't play this week.

9) Packers 24, Vikings 21-- Two of three Packer TDs came on drives of less than 55 yards. Green Baay's offense is way better at Lambeau than on the road.

Comment that has nothing to do with this game: college football is better officiated than NFL games; too much micro-managing of officials by higher-ups. They want the refs to pick out a culprit when there is a skirmish. Ridiculous idea.

8) Colts 23, Jaguars 3-- Indy is now 14-0-1 vs spread under Pagano/Arians in game following a loss. Jacksonville is awful; say they wanted to move to LA; why would anyone in LA buy season tickets to watch such an awful team? Not like the fanbase in southern California is known for its loyalty.

7) Bengals, Bears and Seattle all won field position by 10+ yards Sunday, making those teams 57-1 SU this season. In other words, its important to get first downs and move the chains to help create longer fields for your opponents.

6) Bengals 22, Texans 13-- Cincinnati is really erratic, even by NFL standards. Andy Dalton gave a signed jersey from this game to his dad for his 55th birthday. Only TD Houston scored was by their defense, one of three defensive TDs scored league-wide; other two were scored by Rams-Chargers in same game.

5) Bears 21, Buccaneers 13-- Tampa led 10-0 at half and looked like they'd get their coach a win in his return to the Windy City, but they turned ball over three times in third quarter and Bears scored three TDs in a 7:31 span to get their second win in a row. Total yardage in this game: 367-204, Tampa.

4) Seahawks 19, Cardinals 3-- Arizona still leads NFC West by two games, but of their last five games, which are they winning? @ Atlanta, Chiefs, @ Rams on a short week, Seattle, @ 49ers. If they finished 10-6 it wouldn't be a shock.

3) Chargers 27, Rams 24-- You can't win in the NFL without a decent QB. You can't win in the NFL without a decent QB. You can't win in the NFL without a decent QB. You can't win in the NFL without a decent QB. You can't win in the NFL without a decent QB. You can't win in the NFL without a decent QB.

In case you're wondering, my living room wasn't a happy place at 7:15 last night.

2) 49ers 17, Redskins 13-- Added note from the Ram game; Ronde Barber sucks as an analyst. His comment after Shaun Hill threw a brutal INT on the goal line at the end of the game: "He played a great game".

My ass he did. Rams scored two TDs on offense, one was a 21-yard drive; Hill was picked on the Rams' second series, handing San Diego a FG, he fumbled when sacked, giving them a TD, then the last fateful pick. Gutty effort, not a great game.

1) Cowboys 31, Giants 28-- Question for you readers out there; your team has the ball on its own 20-yard line, down three points, 2:00 left-- what current QB do you want leading your team? Send me your answer at [email protected]

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Opening Line Report: Early action jumps on Patriots-Packers opener

It’s getting close to crunch time in the NFL, and Week 13 will feature several key matchups, particularly in divisional games. But the most intriguing contest just might be a Super Bowl preview, with the scorching-hot New England Patriots traveling to Lambeau Field to face the surging Green Bay Packers.

New England opened as high as +3.5 but early action has this spread settling at the touchdown at most books.

“Most think this is a preview of the Super Bowl, we opened the Packers at -3(-115) and saw mostly Patriot money come in on the +3,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag, tells Covers. “Since we think this is a solid number for this matchup we have adjusted the juice to (-105) hoping to attract some Packers money.”

The Pats (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) aren’t just winning, they are pummeling opponents. Since getting whitewashed 41-14 at Kansas City in Week 4, New England has gone 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS and has scored 34 points or more six times. On Sunday, the Patriots rolled visiting Detroit 34-9 as a 7.5-point favorite.

The Packers (8-3 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) have won seven of their last eight (6-2 ATS), though they had to hang on for a win Sunday at Minnesota, 24-21 giving 7.5 points.

“So far, we are long on the Patriots with 86 percent of the action on them to cover the three points,” says Stewart. “We do, however, believe we will start to see Packer money come in the closer we get to game time.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Both teams will come in off a short week for this Thanksgiving Day NFC East Division showdown.

“Game 2 of the Thanksgiving triple header, this battle for the NFC East will go a long way to determine the winner of the division,” says Stewart. “We opened the Cowboys -3 and have seen good two-way action at that number.”

Philly is finding a way to get it done without starting quarterback Nick Foles (collarbone), with Mark Sanchez keeping the Eagles on track. Philadelphia (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) thumped Tennessee 43-24 as an 11-point home fave Sunday.

Dallas (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) had a bye week to prep for its roady against the New York Giants, but still found itself losing 21-10 at halftime Sunday night. But the Cowboys got it together in the second half to eke out a 31-28 victory, failing to cash as a 4-point chalk.

“Where we are seeing the most lopsided action on this game is on the total,” says Stewart. “We opened the total at 54 and it was quickly bet up to 54.5. And with the action pouring in on the Over still, we have moved to 55 with 98 percent of the action on the Over. I could see us moving this to 56 or even higher as we get closer to game time.”

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

It’s an NFC West clash that both teams need in order to stay in the thick of the playoff chase, and they’ll both be on short rest as they play Thanksgiving night.

“We opened the 49ers as 1-point faves and took some good action on that number moving us to -2 where we had a few sharp wagers come in on the Seahawks at +2 moving us back to 49ers-1 and eventually to a pick’em,” says Stewart. “With the public backing the home team in this game, we have moved back to 49ers -1 with a good split of action on the side, 45 to 55 percent.”

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) got its playoff hopes back on track, cooling off first-place division rival Arizona 19-3 as a 7.5-point home favorite. San Francisco, meanwhile, needed a late touchdown at home to fend off lackluster Washington 17-13, failing to cash as a hefty 9-point chalk.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Denver hardly looks like a team that went to the Super Bowl last season, struggling to get anything done the past month. The Broncos (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS), coming off an outright loss at St. Louis, needed a 22-point second half to hold off Miami 39-37 laying 6.5 points at home.

“We opened the Broncos as 1-point favorites,” Stewart says. “And after their performance running the ball this past weekend, we took nothing but Broncos action. We moved to -1.5 and still the Broncos action continues to come in, so we have moved to -2 and are still long on the Broncos with 82 percent of the action on the Broncos to cover.”

Kansas City (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) had won five in a row SU and ATS before suffering a 24-20 loss at previously winless Oakland as a 7.5-point chalk last Thursday night.

“Going into one of the toughest places in the league to play, Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense are going to have to find a way to handle the noise at Arrowhead and the pass rush of the Chiefs,” says Stewart

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: No respect for underrated Rams in Week 13

Spread to bet on now

Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams (-7)

If any losing team deserves a pat on the back this season, it’s the Rams. Given up for dead after Sam Bradford was lost for the season, St. Louis has resisted the urge to cut and run and may have the best 4-7 record in NFL history, with wins over Denver, San Francisco (road) and Seattle.

And the Rams were one possession away from victories over San Diego, Dallas and Philadelphia. So with a lot of luck they could be 7-4 and still in the hunt in the NFC West.

Playing at home, the Rams are clearly more than a TD better than Oakland on the road and, unless something strange happens, St. Louis should cover the seven.

Spread to wait on

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

If this game was scheduled for Week 10 and not Week 12, the Lions would have been laying 12 or 13. But much has happened since then – all good for the Bears (two straight wins) and all bad for the Lions.

Detroit simply can’t score anymore, and no one seems to be able to figure out why. Eight quarters without a touchdown have raised concerns about whether the Lions are even playoff material, let alone Super Bowl contenders.

Not only that, but now offensive lineman Dominic Raiola is taking heat after admitting that he intentionally tried to injure a Patriots player late in the Lions’ loss at New England. It might be a good idea to see what kind of attitude the Lions bring to practice this week before laying down any cash on this Thanksgiving Day game either way.

Total to watch

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (58)

The Packers are scoring a ton of points at home – 108 in the last two at Lambeau Field, and averaging nearly 44. New England’s offense appears just as unstoppable, with weapons seemingly everywhere. The two best quarterbacks in the league are also on display Sunday.

It all adds up to a ridiculously high college-like total. But it’s doubtful that Bill Belichick has any interest in getting involved in an up-and-down-the-field game, so bettors might want to take a hard look at an Under play.

Books like this as a field-goal game anyway, so if this is close at halftime, conservative playcalling late in the game might tend to keep this one from getting completely out of hand.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (5 - 6) at DETROIT (7 - 4) - 11/27/2014, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 51-76 ATS (-32.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 35-58 ATS (-28.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 32-53 ATS (-26.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (8 - 3) at DALLAS (8 - 3) - 11/27/2014, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (7 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 4) - 11/27/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 58-85 ATS (-35.5 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (3 - 8) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (2 - 9) at HOUSTON (5 - 6) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (7 - 4) at BUFFALO (6 - 5) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (7 - 4) at BALTIMORE (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (3 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 10) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 31-58 ATS (-32.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 30-53 ATS (-28.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (7 - 3 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 9) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (1 - 10) at ST LOUIS (4 - 7) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 33-70 ATS (-44.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-38 ATS (-23.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 72-99 ATS (-36.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (4 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 7 - 1) at MINNESOTA (4 - 7) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 72-40 ATS (+28.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 48-23 ATS (+22.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (9 - 2) at ATLANTA (4 - 7) - 11/30/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (9 - 2) at GREEN BAY (8 - 3) - 11/30/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 82-57 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 84-48 ATS (+31.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 103-72 ATS (+23.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 71-45 ATS (+21.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (8 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (6 - 5) at NY JETS (2 - 9) - 12/1/2014, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, Nov. 27

Chicago at Detroit, 12:30 ET
Chicago: 3-12 ATS versus division opponents
Detroit: 29-14 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points

Philadelphia at Dallas, 4:30 ET
Philadelphia: 6-15 ATS after playing a game at home
Dallas: 6-0 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Seattle at San Francisco, 8:30 ET
Seattle: 9-1 ATS as an underdog
San Francisco: 54-35 OVER in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points


Sunday, Nov. 30

Washington at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Washington: 4-13 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Indianapolis: 17-7 ATS as a favorite

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 2-11 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 16-5 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game

Cleveland at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 81-57 UNDER after playing their last game on the road
Buffalo: 30-16 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

San Diego at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 16-6 UNDER against conference opponents
Baltimore: 9-1 UNDER after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

NY Giants at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
New York: 49-30 ATS in road games off a division game
Jacksonville: 4-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Tampa Bay: 19-8 UNDER against AFC North division opponents

Oakland at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 34-19 OVER after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game
St Louis: 9-1 OVER off a non-conference game

New Orleans at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 6-19 ATS against AFC North division opponents
Pittsburgh: 44-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Carolina at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-1 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Minnesota: 4-13 ATS off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival

Arizona at Atlanta, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Atlanta: 16-32 ATS in home games after playing a game at home

New England at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
New England: 15-5 OVER after gaining 375 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games
Green Bay: 10-2 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

Denver at Kansas City, 8:30 ET
Denver: 26-14 ATS as a favorite
Kansas City: 36-58 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games


Monday, Dec. 1

Miami at New York Jets, 8:30 ET
Miami: 11-2 UNDER versus division opponents
New York: 2-10 ATS off a division game

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 27

12:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chicago

4:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Francisco's last 14 games


Sunday, November 30

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. ST. LOUIS
Oakland is 1-16 SU in its last 17 games
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games
St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. PITTSBURGH
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BUFFALO
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Cleveland is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. BALTIMORE
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. MINNESOTA
Carolina is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. JACKSONVILLE
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. GREEN BAY
New England is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Denver's last 24 games on the road
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


Monday, December 1

8:30 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 7-13-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home