The bum's nfl november's best bets,trends, stats, news etc !

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Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 10 line moves

Believe it or not, Week 10 of the NFL season is this week. With the playoff races taking shape and teams turning up the intensity, bettors are tipping their hand as to which teams they have faith in.

We talk to Scott Kaminsky of TheGreek.com about the biggest line adjustments to the Week 10 odds and where those spread and totals could end up come kickoff:

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys – Open: OTB

Most books are keeping odds for this London, England showcase off the board until more is known about the status of Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, who traveled to the UK despite a broken back. The Cowboys will be favorites in this neutral-site game at Wembley Stadium, but by how many points will depend on Romo.

“Dallas -10 with him and -5 without him,” Kaminsky tells Covers. “Myself, I would lay about Dallas -7 with the fact that early reports sound like (Romo’s) going to play. I would take a flyer on him playing. But I think if he plays, its should probably be about nine points.”

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -1, Move: Pick, Move: +1.5

This NFC South matchup could be the nail in the coffin for Falcons head coach Mike Smith. This line has jumped the fence at some markets, with money on Atlanta banking on the Falcons to come to their coach’s rescue off a bye week – a good spot for Smith, who is 5-1 SU off the bye in his tenure in Atlanta.

“I don’t know if I buy into (the Falcons playing for Smith),” says Kaminsky. “They should be motivated anyways. It should take something like that to motivate your team. I don’t even know how much they really like the guy.”

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -3.5, Move: -4.5

Action has bumped the spread for one of Sunday’s marquee matchups a full point at some books, with money coming in on New Orleans at home. The Saints are a completely different team inside the Superdome, where they’ve gone 35-16 ATS – 68 percent – in their last 51 home dates.

“Early money likes the Saints but we’re pretty even on this game,” says Kaminsky. “The first bet out of the box was on the dog but we moved to -4.5 even though some took +4, thinking this game will close at 4.5 or higher. I think 4.5 is about right.”

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers – Open: 52, Move: 53

The total is ticking upwards for this NFC North rivalry. Chicago’s defense has been miserable and now faces a high-powered Packers attack in Lambeau Field, where the early forecasts are calling for a chance of snow and temperatures dipping into the 20s.

“We opened 52 and less than an hour after posting it we went to 52.5,” says Kaminsky. “I was thinking they’d bet the Over and they did, so we’re at 53. I’m going to look at it again and will probably go up to 53.5. It seems like this year all these games that should go Over, are all going Over.”

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NFL

Thursday, November 6


Lots of weather in forecast for Thursday Night Football

The Cleveland Browns visit the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10's edition of Thursday Night Football and there is some weather on tap you should be aware of before placing your bets for this AFC North showdown.

It's going to be a cool, wet night in Cincinnati with temperatures around 40 degrees and a 52 percent chance of rain during the game. There will also be a strong 13 mile per hour wind blowing from west to east throughout the game.

The Bengals are currently listed as 6-point home favorites with the total sitting at 44.5.


Faves dominant under Thursday night lights

Thursday night action has taken some abuse for being blow out this season, but lost in the shuffle of the mismatches is the dominant faves play. Through nine Thursday night games, the favorites are 7-2 against the spread.

The Cincinnati Bengals are currently 6.5-point home faves against the Cleveland Browns Thursday.


Bengals coach Lewis says Bernard won't play Thursday

Cincinnati Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis said running back Giovanni Bernard will not play Thursday night against the Cleveland Browns.

Lewis told SiriusXM NFL Radio that Bernard would not suit for the Bengals tonight after missing last weeks game against Jacksonville with a hip injury. Bernard is officially listed as doubtful on the injury report.

The Bengals are currently listed as 6-point home favorites and will turn to rookie Jeremy Hill to take over the starters duties once again. Hill ran for a career high 154 yards and two touchdowns last week.

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Sharp Moves - Week 10

November 6, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 10!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.

(Rotation #259) Tennessee +10 – Not only is this a sharp spot because of the quantity of points which the Titans are getting, but it is sharp due to the circumstances surrounding the game as well. Tennessee is clearly in its best shape at the quarterback position now that QB Zach Mettenberger is getting his chance to shine, and the team is coming off of a bye week, which means that the rookie has had two full weeks of first-team reps after getting virtually no first-team reps prior to three weeks ago in his career. On top of that, the Ravens have played nine games in nine weeks already, and they are coming off of their most physical battle of the year against the Steelers last Sunday night. Tennessee could legitimately sneak up on the Ravens, who have to be looking forward to their bye week next week.

Opening Line: Tennessee +10.5
Current Line: Tennessee +10
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Baltimore

(Rotation #262) New York +4.5 – Bad teams tend to be sharp all the time, and the Jets are once again sharp in this game. The spot though, is a pretty good one, as this is the first time that the Steelers have had to go on the road in a month after three straight home games. The Jets have at least looked like they are fighting hard at times this year, and it wasn't for a lack of effort that they were beaten by the Chiefs last weekend. They had their opportunities to get in front of the number, but consistently electing to go for touchdowns instead of field goals didn't help the cause any. We don't exactly have much confidence right now in what New York is doing, but this line just feels awfully, awfully low. Some lines just look sharper than others. This is one of them.

Opening Line: New York +4.5
Current Line: New York +4
Public Betting Percentage: 77% on Pittsburgh

(Rotation #267) St. Louis +7 – The Rams are only mildly sharp this week, and we would understand any trepidation about playing them, knowing that they are coming off of a tremendously emotional win last week in which they held the 49ers on the goal line with virtually no time left in the game. Arizona is starting to get a little public for our tastes. It was a good run for the Cardinals, but that run is going to come to a halt at some point. The pass rush for St. Louis is finally starting to pick it up, and that could be a bad sign for the rest of the teams in the NFC West, including the Cards. Could the seemingly lowly Rams really clinch at least a .500 record in the toughest division in the league? Don't discount the possibility.

Opening Line: St. Louis +7 (-120)
Current Line: St. Louis +7 (-115)
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Arizona

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Browns at Bengals

November 5, 2014

All four teams in the AFC North have won at least five games this season. To put that in perspective, not one club in the NFC South has more than four victories. Two of the AFC North’s oldest rivals meet up in Cincinnati on Thursday night to kick off the Week 10 card, as the Bengals look to keep up their winning ways at Paul Brown Stadium.

Cincinnati (5-2-1) jumped out to a 3-0 start, but a winless three week stretch bumped the Bengals out of first place in the AFC North. Marvin Lewis’ team has rebounded of late with consecutive home victories over the Ravens and Jaguars to take back the lead in the division by percentage points over the Steelers (who Cincinnati hasn’t played yet). In this past Sunday’s 33-23 triumph over Jacksonville as 10-point favorites, the Bengals were in control for most of the way until the Jaguars trimmed the deficit to three points with eight minutes remaining. Jeremy Hill broke off a 60-yard touchdown run on the next play from scrimmage to give Cincinnati the 10-point advantage to improve to 4-0-1 at home.

The expectations on the Browns were once again to be in the cellar of this competitive division, but first-year head coach Mike Pettine has Cleveland in the thick of the race at 5-3. Looking deeper into the schedule, some may claim that the Browns have cleaned up on some of the league’s garbage, beating the Titans, Raiders, and Buccaneers over the last month, while getting tripped up by the previously winless Jaguars three weeks ago as a road favorite.

Cleveland held off Tampa Bay last Sunday, 22-17, but failed to cash as seven-point home favorites. These two clubs went back-and-forth as the Bucs held a 17-16 advantage in the third quarter, but the Browns went ahead for good in the fourth quarter on a Brian Hoyer touchdown pass to Taylor Gabriel. Cleveland rushed for just 50 yards against Tampa Bay, a slight improvement after putting up 39 yards on the ground in the previous victory over Oakland.

The home team has won eight of the past nine meetings in this series since 2009, as the Browns and Bengals split their two matchups last season. Cleveland tripped up Cincinnati as 3 ½-point underdogs, 17-6 last September, as Hoyer tossed a pair of touchdowns and threw for 269 yards in the win.

The Bengals returned the favor in the next matchup at Paul Brown Stadium in November by delivering a 41-21 thumping to cash as 4 ½-point favorites. Cleveland jumped out to a 13-0 lead, but Cincinnati responded with a 31-point spot in the second quarter, which included a defensive score and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Andy Dalton didn’t even reach triple-digits in yards (97), but threw three touchdown passes as the Bengals have won five straight home contests with the Browns since 2009.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson said this game can be won on the ground, “In terms of rushing yards allowed per game Cleveland and Cincinnati rank 30th and 31st respectively in the league as it seems likely that both teams will aim to attack on the ground Thursday night.” In Cincinnati’s two losses, the Bengals gave up 220 yards to the Patriots and yielded 171 yards at Indianapolis.

Nelson highlights Cleveland’s easy slate so far, but there is plenty of work to do for the postseason, “The Browns have not exactly played a difficult schedule at this point in the season as four of the last five games have come against teams that are 2-6 or worse, but the Browns will have winnable games the next three weeks (Houston, Atlanta, Buffalo) as well as this could really be a playoff team.”

Cincinnati’s domination at home extends back to 2013, as the Bengals have won 12 of their past 13 regular season contests. The lone blemish wasn’t even a loss, instead a 37-37 tie against Carolina back in Week 6, as Cincinnati owns a terrific 11-1-1 ATS record in this span. Obviously this is a key division battle, but if the Bengals can win, they would improve to 3-0 inside the AFC North as Cincinnati faces Pittsburgh twice in the final four weeks of the season.

Cleveland has taken care of business at home with a 4-1 record, but has struggled on the highway by dropping two of three road contests. The Browns fell behind the Steelers in the season opener, 27-3 at halftime before rallying to tie the game at 27-27 in the fourth. Pittsburgh eventually kicked the game-winning field goal, but the Browns managed a cover as 5 ½-point underdogs. The Browns needed to dig out of another major hole at Tennessee four weeks later, erasing a 28-3 deficit to shock the Titans, 29-28 in the biggest regular season road comeback in NFL history.

From a totals perspective, there is no advantage either way as both Cleveland and Cincinnati are each 4-4 to the ‘over.’ Five of the past six meetings have gone ‘over’ the total, including three straight at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati started the season with three consecutive ‘unders,’ but the Bengals are currently on a 4-1 run to the ‘over.’ The Browns have been streaky in the totals department, cashing four straight ‘unders’ to begin the season, followed by four consecutive ‘overs.’

The Bengals are currently listed as six-point home favorites at most books, with several 6 ½’s hanging out there. The total is set at 44 ½, as temperatures are expected to be in the mid 40’s with a 30% chance of showers. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM and can be seen on the NFL Network.

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RATED PLAYS:

1 - 3 ......................................*****

2 - 4 ......................................DOUBLE PLAY

3 - 0 ......................................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 1 ......................................THE HAMMER


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/03/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

11/02/14 11-*10-*1 52.38% 0 Detail

Totals 12-*11-*1 52.17% -*50

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RATED PLAYS:

1 - 3 ......................................*****

2 - 4 ......................................DOUBLE PLAY

3 - 0 ......................................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 1 ......................................THE HAMMER


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/03/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

11/02/14 11-*10-*1 52.38% 0 Detail

Totals 12-*11-*1 52.17% -*50


Thursday, November 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 8:25 PM ET Cleveland +6.5 500 THE HAMMER

Cincinnati - Over 45 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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RATED PLAYS:

1 - 3 ......................................*****

2 - 4 ......................................DOUBLE PLAY

3 - 0 ......................................TRIPLE PLAY

3 - 1 ......................................THE HAMMER



Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/06/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

11/03/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

11/02/14 11-*10-*1 52.38% 0 Detail

Totals 13-*12-*1 52.00% -*100

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Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 10 line moves

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys – Open: OTB

Most books are keeping odds for this London, England showcase off the board until more is known about the status of Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, who traveled to the UK despite a broken back. The Cowboys will be favorites in this neutral-site game at Wembley Stadium, but by how many points will depend on Romo.

“Dallas -10 with him and -5 without him,” Kaminsky tells Covers. “Myself, I would lay about Dallas -7 with the fact that early reports sound like (Romo’s) going to play. I would take a flyer on him playing. But I think if he plays, its should probably be about nine points.”

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -1, Move: Pick, Move: +1.5

This NFC South matchup could be the nail in the coffin for Falcons head coach Mike Smith. This line has jumped the fence at some markets, with money on Atlanta banking on the Falcons to come to their coach’s rescue off a bye week – a good spot for Smith, who is 5-1 SU off the bye in his tenure in Atlanta.

“I don’t know if I buy into (the Falcons playing for Smith),” says Kaminsky. “They should be motivated anyways. It should take something like that to motivate your team. I don’t even know how much they really like the guy.”

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -3.5, Move: -4.5

Action has bumped the spread for one of Sunday’s marquee matchups a full point at some books, with money coming in on New Orleans at home. The Saints are a completely different team inside the Superdome, where they’ve gone 35-16 ATS – 68 percent – in their last 51 home dates.

“Early money likes the Saints but we’re pretty even on this game,” says Kaminsky. “The first bet out of the box was on the dog but we moved to -4.5 even though some took +4, thinking this game will close at 4.5 or higher. I think 4.5 is about right.”

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers – Open: 52, Move: 53

The total is ticking upwards for this NFC North rivalry. Chicago’s defense has been miserable and now faces a high-powered Packers attack in Lambeau Field, where the early forecasts are calling for a chance of snow and temperatures dipping into the 20s.

“We opened 52 and less than an hour after posting it we went to 52.5,” says Kaminsky. “I was thinking they’d bet the Over and they did, so we’re at 53. I’m going to look at it again and will probably go up to 53.5. It seems like this year all these games that should go Over, are all going Over.”

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+1.5, 41)

Chiefs’ third-down defense vs. Bills’ third-down offense

Keeping the chains moving will make the difference if this game is as tight as the spread indicates. And doing so may be tough for the Bills, who haven’t had much success on third down this season.

Buffalo has converted just under 36 percent of its third downs, including a dismal 3 for 12 on third down versus the Jets two weeks ago. Making life tougher on those key downs is the lack of a running game to keep the defense honest. The Bills are without third-down back C.J. Spiller and fellow RB Fred Jackson is questionable with a groin injury. Add to that rookie WR Sammy Watkins injured his groin in practice and Buffalo could be dealing with plenty of three-and-outs Sunday.

Kansas City is among the best in the league at turning away opponents on third down, with foes converting just under 33 percent of those tries. The Chiefs have been especially stingy in those spots the previous three games, holding teams to a 30.3 percent conversion rate on third down and just 3.3 third downs per game in that stretch.

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 43.5)

Dolphins' kicking woes vs. Lions' red-zone defense

Miami is marching on a three-game SU and ATS winning streak and getting points in Motown Sunday afternoon. The Dolphins defense is playing well, the offense has erupted for 91 points the last three games – and only something as silly as kicking could throw a banana peel in front of the Fins.

Miami kicker Caleb Sturgis has been a sore spot in recent weeks. Sturgis, who ranks 23rd in accuracy going 16 for 20 on field goal attempts, has shanked three kicks in his last 10 attempts including a 45-yarder that went unnoticed in the blowout win over San Diego last Sunday. Sturgis was chewed out by head coach Joe Philbin for missing two FGs in Week 7 and Miami can’t afford to be missing points against one of the tougher stop units in the league.

Detroit ranks tops in the NFL in yards allowed, budging for only 290.4 yards a game. Things get even tighter when opponents actually fight their way inside the 20-yard line. The Lions have given up only 2.6 red-zone opportunities per game and have held foes out of the end zone on 47.62 percent of those chances. Detroit’s defense could force the Dolphins to turn to the shaky leg of Sturgis more than it would like Sunday.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 43)

Rams’ wretched second halves vs. Cardinals’ closing ability

Arizona backers are used to sweating through the first half of games this season, with the Cardinals waiting until late to turn it on. Arizona has won four in a row SU and ATS thanks to its ability to land KO blows late in the game.

The Cardinals average just under two touchdowns per second half and 8.8 points per fourth quarter – third best in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, Arizona is giving up an average of only 4.2 points in the final frame and coming through big for bettors.

St. Louis has shown a tendency to start strong in recent games, then fizzle out as its lack of talent takes over. The Rams score 11.2 points in the first 30 minutes then drop off to 7.4 in the last two chapters. Things get even uglier on defense in the second half. St. Louis is handing out 16.8 points per second half – most in the NFL – including an average of more than eight points in the fourth quarter.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 52.5)

Bears’ grounded game plan vs. Packers’ poor run defense

When you think about Marc Trestman’s offense in Chicago, you think pass. A lot. The Bears have thrown the ball on 62.92 percent of their offensive snaps this season – fourth most in the league. But, against the rival Packers, Trestman defies convention and hits the ground running with a rush-heavy playbook.

In Trestman’s three games as Bears head coach versus Green Bay, Chicago has totaled 527 rushing yards on 98 carries – an average of 5.4 yards per run. The Bears have handed the ball off only 209 total times through eight games this season – an average of 26 runs per game – for just 4.2 yards per carry.

The Packers rank dead last in the league at defending the turf, getting bulldozed for 153.4 rushing yards per game. The Cheese Heads gave up 193 yards on the ground versus the Saints – not known for their rushing prowess – on Sunday Night Football in Week 8. Chicago is hoping to eat up as much clock as possible with the run game and leave Aaron Rodgers “Discount Double Checking” his watch on the sidelines.

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Cowboys' Romo practices in London

November 6, 2014

LONDON (AP) - Tony Romo practiced Thursday for the first time since arriving in London, and the Dallas Cowboys' quarterback says his injured back is getting better.

Romo missed last Sunday's loss to the Arizona Cardinals because of his third back injury in 18 months. He skipped Wednesday's practice following the team's arrival Tuesday.

''We'll keep taking it day by day and just see what happens,'' Romo said. ''It's improving each day and I think we did some things today that were positive. Just keep going in that direction, I think we'll have a good chance (of playing Sunday).''

The Cowboys (6-3) play the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) at Wembley Stadium in the last of three regular-season games in London this year. They have lost their last two games, however, with backup Brandon Weeden playing last weekend.

Romo has fractures in two small bones in his back. The injury is unrelated to a herniated disk last year or to offseason surgery to remove a cyst earlier in 2013.

The quarterback said Thursday he was still a little sore, but called it ''normal stuff'' and said his back loosened up during practice.

''If you're always waiting to feel great to play in every game you play in, you're only going to play a couple of games a year,'' he said. ''The best players are the guys who are able to play at the same level with stuff going on.''

Even though Romo practiced, Dallas coach Jason Garrett is still not sure who will start.

''We would never put a player in harm's way. Obviously it's a very physical sport that we play,'' Garrett said. ''He (Romo) has to be functional. He has to be able to protect himself.''

Against the Cardinals, Weeden threw two interceptions and had one late touchdown. So for the Cowboys, who have a bye next week, getting Romo on the field is a priority if they want to end the two-game losing streak.

Even if he is in a little pain.

''No one cares once you actually step on the field on Sunday whether you're banged up or not,'' Romo said. ''It's just about what you do when you're out there.

''Each day you just get incrementally better, you improve. I'm feeling better. I think it's getting to a point where you can manage it.''

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones watched practice and said Romo had a comfortable flight to London.

''I'm anticipating him playing,'' he said. ''Have no reason to think that he won't.''

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LVS FORMERLY THE HILTON CONTEST REPORT

The LVS formerly Hilton Hotel Sportsbook still runs the most prestigious s
ports handicapping contest in Las Vegas. Every week will post the top five selections in
the contest by number of handicappers. After week three we will also post the leaders selections

This weeks top five picks by number of handicappers.

#5 Jets -5 394 Handicappers

#4 Chiefs -2 396 Handicappers

#3 Saints -5 423 Handicappers

#2 Packer -7 443 Handicappers

#1 Lions -2 1/2 551 Handicappers

The bengals and Browns were the two least used teams this week.
In Sunday's games the Jags are the least used team

The Hilton top five is a respectable 26 and 20 for the year and were
3 and 2 last weekend.

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SuperContest Picks - Week 10

November 8, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 10 Picks (# of Selections)

1) Detroit -2.5 (551)
2) Green Bay -7 (443)
3) New Orleans -5 (423)
4) Kansas City -2 (396)
5) N.Y. Jets +5 (394)

Week 9 Results

1) Arizona (+3.5) - WIN
2) San Diego (+1.5) - LOSS
3) Philadelphia (-2) - WIN
4) New England (+3) - WIN
5) Baltimore (-1) - LOSS

Week 8 Results

1) Indianapolis (-3) - LOSS
2) Kansas City (-6.5) - WIN
3) Houston (-2) - WIN
4) Baltimore (+1) - LOSS
5) New Orleans (-1.5) - WIN

Week 7 Results

1) Kansas City (+4.5) - WIN
2) Indianapolis (-3) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants (+6.5) - LOSS
4) Seattle (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (-6.5) - WIN

Week 6 Results

1) Miami (+3.5) - WIN
2) N.Y. Giants (+3) - LOSS
3) Buffalo (+3) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-7) - LOSS
5) Denver (-8.5) - WIN

Week 5 Results

1) Denver (-7) - WIN
2) Baltimore (+3.5) - LOSS
3) Cincinnati (-1) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-6.5) - WIN
5) Chicago (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay (-1.5) - WIN
2) Kansas City (+3.5) - WIN
3) Atlanta (-3) - LOSS
4) Philadelphia (+5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SUPERCONTEST WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 3-2 13-7 65%
5 2-3 15-10 60%
6 2-3 17-13 57%
7 3-2 20-15 57%
8 3-2 23-17 58%
9 3-2 26-19 57%
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

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Gridiron Angles - Week 10

November 8, 2014

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Saints are 13-0-1 ATS (14.9 ppg) since October 23, 2011 as a home favorite when they won their last two home games.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-13 ATS (-12.2 ppg) since November 1993 as a road favorite of more than four points when they won their last two road games.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The 49ers are 10-0-1 ATS (10.5 ppg) since November 22, 2009 on the road after a home game in which Vernon Davis had fewer than 25 receiving yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS as a dog when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.

NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- Duke is 14-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since 2000 on the road when not more than a TD dog, if they are not undefeated this season.

NCAA PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Fresno State is 0-12-1 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since 2002 as a favorite between weeks 5 and 14 of the season after a game where they allowed at least 45 points.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 10-0-1 ATS (7.9 ppg) since October 30, 2011 when facing a team whose defense recorded 4-plus sacks in their last game.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams are 42-32-1 ATS facing a team they lost to by at least 38 points last time they faced this team. Active on Tampa Bay.

NCAA O/U TREND:

-- Ohio State is 0-9 OU (-13.4 ppg) since 2008 as an underdog of no more than a TD.

NCAA SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that won last game to snap a 4+ game losing streak are 90-120-3 OU. Active on UConn and NC State.

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Total Talk - Week 10

November 8, 2014

Be sure to follow us on Twitter for weekly NFL Betting Updates!

Week 9 Recap

The ‘over’ went 7-5-1 in Week 9 and four of those winning tickets were helped with some healthy second-half surges.

Jaguars-Bengals: 41 points
Redskins-Vikings: 38 points
Ravens-Steelers: 34 points (all in 4th quarter)
Colts-Giants: 45 points

We apologize to bettors that had the ‘under’ in those games and congratulate the winners.

Through nine weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 70-63-1.

Back to London

Since 2007, the NFL has had 10 regular season games played at Wembley Stadium from London.

NFL INTERNATIONAL SERIES HISTORY (2007-2014)
Year Matchup Total Result
2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10 Under 48
2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 Over 45.5
2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Under 45
2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16 Under 41.5
2011 Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 Under 44
2012 New England 45 St. Louis 7 Over 46
2013 Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 Over 41
2013 San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10 Over 41
2014 Miami Dolphins 38 Oakland Raiders 14 Over 41.5
2014 Detroit Lions 22 Atlanta Falcons 21 Under 45
2014 Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -

Looking above, you can see that the ‘over/under’ has produced a 5-5 record.

Sunday’s matchup between Dallas and Jacksonville has a total hovering between 45 points and this is a tough game to handicap. Quarterback Tony Romo is listed as ‘probable’ for the Cowboys but he’s obviously not 100 percent. The Jaguars defense has been inconsistent this season and Dallas has only managed to score 17 points in its last two games. Jacksonville still has a rookie QB but he’ll be facing a depleted Cowboys defensive unit in this matchup.

Road System Returns

This angle is a great look and I’ve been following it for a long time.

Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

According to my records on Total Talk, this angle has produced a 36-15-2 (71%) record the past 10 seasons in the NFL, which includes a 1-0 record this season.

In Week 5, the Buccaneers lost to the Saints 37-31 in overtime from New Orleans and the ‘over’ (48) connected with some nice back-and-forth action in the final two quarters. This was the third consecutive road game for Tampa Bay.

In Week 10, this angle takes us to the desert as the Cardinals host the Rams, who will be playing their third straight game as visitors. St. Louis lost at Kansas City 34-7 in Week 8 before rebounding with a 13-10 upset at San Francisco last Sunday.

The total on this game is hovering around 43 points and you could be weary of playing the ‘over’ since Arizona has leaned to the ‘under’ 5-2-1 this season, especially at home (3-1).

Even though the ‘under’ has produced a 7-3 record the past 10 head-to-head meetings, I believe the Rams have a shot to score points in this spot. Arizona’s pass defense is ranked last in total yards and they have no pass rush, accumulating eight sacks in eight games. The Cardinals continue to get press but I expect a dogfight here with both teams getting at least four scores, hopefully more touchdowns than field goals.

Thursday System heads to MNF

I’m running out of adjectives to describe the “Thursday Night Total” system but after watching New England and Denver combine for 64 points last week, I think unreal sums it up.

Including the Broncos-Patriots outcome, this system is now 21-3-1 (88%) dating back to last season.

What’s the system?

All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Since Carolina hosted New Orleans last Thursday, the betting angle applies to the Panthers-Eagles matchup on MNF. Personally, I’m not buying the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ in this situation.

For starters, this system has gone 6-1 this season but the one loss came on MNF in Week 5 when the Seahawks and Redskins went ‘under’ (45). I hate to play the due factor but ‘under’ tickets will eventually start to show up more in these primetime games.

Another factor that is scaring me away from the ‘over’ is the QB play for both Carolina and Philadelphia. I don’t know if Cam Newton is hurt but he’s not the same guy for the Panthers this season.

On the other side of the ball is Mark Sanchez, who was put on a pedestal after filling in for Nick Foles and helping the Eagles beat the Texans 31-20 last Sunday.

Do you really trust Sanchez? His numbers were decent but he did have two interceptions and that’s never a good thing.

I hope it hits if you play the ‘over’ but please keep in mind that these trends and systems aren’t always automatic and they should be used as part of your handicapping.

Those looking ahead to Week 11 can begin to handicap the Saints-Bengals matchup since Cincinnati just hosted Cleveland this past Thursday.

Rematch Battles

I’m touching on this angle again because it’s been perfect so far. We’ve had four divisional matchups this season where the teams have completed their two-game series.

Through the first four rematches, the opposite total result occurred in the second encounter:

Steelers-Browns
Week 1 – Pittsburgh 30 Cleveland 27 (Over 41)
Week 6 – Cleveland 31 Pittsburgh 10 (Under 46.5)

Ravens-Bengals
Week 1 – Cincinnati 23 Baltimore 16 (Under 43.5)
Week 8 – Cincinnati 27 Baltimore 24 (Over 44.5)

49ers-Rams
Week 6 – San Francisco 31 St. Louis 17 (Over 44)
Week 9 – San Francisco 13 St. Louis 10 (Under 44)

Ravens-Steelers
Week 2 – Pittsburgh 6 Baltimore 26 (Under 44)
Week 9 – Pittsburgh 43 Baltimore 23 (Over 47)

Still early, but you can also see that three of the four teams managed to earn a season split, with Baltimore being the only club to get swept.

We have two more matchups pending this Sunday.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: In Week 3, the Falcons blasted the Buccaneers 56-14 in a nationally televised Thursday matchup and the ‘over’ (47) cashed early in the third quarter. Since then, Atlanta has dropped five straight and the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 during that losing skid behind an offense averaging 17.8 PPG. Tampa Bay has been a mess at home offensively (15.3 PPG), which has led to a 3-1 ‘under’ mark. Josh McCown is back at QB for Tampa Bay and he wasn’t great during his first go ‘round with the starting unit. The ‘over’ has cashed in the last three encounters between the pair. This total opened 47 ½ and was knocked down quickly to 46.

Chicago at Green Bay: These teams met in Week 4 and the Packers earned a 38-17 road win over the Bears. Green Bay led 21-17 at halftime and outscored Chicago 21-0 in the final two quarters as the ‘over’ (51) cashed. It’s hard to advise playing the ‘under’ in a Packers game, since they’ve seen the ‘over’ 7-1 this season. However, this week’s total (53) seems inflated based on Green Bay’s tendencies this season. Since the game is being played at night, I believe weather will play a serious factor. It should also be noted that the ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the pair in games played at Lambeau Field and only one outcome during this span has had more than 53 points scored.

Under the Lights

Slowly but surely, we’re starting to see ‘under’ tickets getting cashed at the betting counter. The ‘over’ started 20-4 but the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in the last five primetime games.

The breakdown for each night listed below:
Sunday (8-1)
Thursday (7-3)
Monday (7-3)

Chicago at Green Bay: (See Above)

Carolina at Philadelphia: (See Above)

Fearless Predictions

One user emailed me last week and asked me why I don’t use the Thursday Total System as my “Best Over” selection each week. To answer him and others, I feel like it would be a disservice to this fictitious section and I’m a little superstitious. Hopefully you’re cashing because my deficit is now $330 through nine weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: St. Louis-Arizona 43

Best Under: Kansas City-Buffalo 42

Best Team Total: Steelers Under 25

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 34 St. Louis-Arizona
Under 55 Atlanta-Tampa Bay
Over 34 ½ Miami-Detroit

[StarDust Bum]

Week 10 Tip Sheet

November 8, 2014

Dolphins at Lions (-2 ½, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 9 Recap:
-- The Dolphins have bounced back nicely after a loss in the final seconds to the Packers, as Miami is riding a three-game winning streak. Joe Philbin’s team destroyed the Chargers as three-point home favorites, 37-0 in by far their most dominating effort of the season. Ryan Tannehill tossed three touchdown passes, while the Dolphins defense intercepted Philip Rivers three times in the win.
-- The Lions had the week off following their dramatic comeback victory in London over the struggling Falcons, 22-21. Detroit failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites, as the Lions haven’t cashed in their past three tries in the favorite role.

Previous meeting: The Lions used several big plays in the fourth quarter to knock off the Dolphins, 34-27 as 9 ½-point underdogs back in 2010. Detroit converted a 53-yard swing pass from Shaun Hill to Jahvid Best to spur a late rally capped off by an interception return for a touchdown by DeAndre Levy in the final minutes. The Dolphins are making their first trip to Ford Field since Thanksgiving 2006 when Miami routed Detroit, 27-10 as three-point favorites.

What to watch for: Miami is riding a three-game ‘under’ streak, while allowing just 27 points during this current hot stretch. Detroit is also in the midst of a solid run to the ‘under,’ hitting in six of the past seven games. However, the Lions own a 3-7 ATS record in their previous 10 tries as a home favorite. Detroit is expected to get several offensive weapons back as running back Reggie Bush and wide receiver Calvin Johnson will be active this week.

Chiefs (-1 ½, 42) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

Week 9 Recap:
-- The 0-2 start for Kansas City seems like a distant memory, as Andy Reid’s club has won five of its past six games to move to 5-3. The Chiefs beat up the hapless Jets last Sunday, 24-10 as 9 ½-point favorites, the third straight home win by double-digits. Kansas City and New York combined for just three points in the second half, but two first half touchdown passes by Alex Smith helped the Chiefs jump the Chargers for second place in the AFC West.
-- The Bills are still in the playoff mix at 5-3, sitting out last week after also blowing out the Jets in their last game back in Week 7 by a 43-23 count. Since Kyle Orton took over at quarterback, the Bills have won three of four games, as the former Purdue standout threw four touchdowns at New York on just 10 completions.

Previous meeting: The final win during an incredible 9-0 run for the Chiefs last season came at Buffalo, 23-13. Buffalo led 10-3 at the half, but a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown by Kansas City’s Sean Smith got the Chiefs back in the game, while Tamba Hali took back a fumble return for a touchdown to put Kansas City on top for good.

What to watch for: The Chiefs have been pointspread gold since dropping the season opener to the Titans, covering six of the past seven games. Kansas City is riding an ‘under’ streak of three games, while going ‘under’ in three of four tries away from Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills are listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, as Buffalo put together an impressive 5-1 ATS record in this role in 2013.

49ers at Saints (-5 ½, 49) – 1:00 PM EST


Week 9 Recap:
-- The 49ers need to get back on the winning track after dropping consecutive games to the Broncos and Rams to fall to 4-4. Last week’s loss to St. Louis as 10 ½-point home favorites was especially disappointing, as Colin Kaepernick couldn’t sneak in the go-ahead touchdown from the one-yard line in the final seconds of a 13-10 setback. It was the second divisional loss for the Niners this season, as San Francisco could be in danger of missing the playoffs after making the conference title game each of the past three years.
-- The Saints finally broke through on the road, beating the Panthers convincingly as three-point favorites, 28-10 for their first away win of the season. New Orleans has clawed back to the .500 mark following a 1-3 start, while outgaining their opponents in each of the past four contests.

Previous meeting: San Francisco is visiting the Superdome for the third straight season, as the Saints held off the Niners last November, 23-20. The 49ers cashed as 3 ½-point underdogs in spite of gaining just 196 yards. Kaepernick’s first road start came in the Big Easy in 2012, leading the Niners to a 31-21 victory as one-point favorites.

What to watch for: Since the start of 2012, the Niners have been a coin-flip proposition as a road underdog, posting a 4-4 ATS record. The Saints continue their dominance at home, winning all three games this season and owning an 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS record since the beginning of the 2013 campaign at the Superdome.

Broncos (-11, 50) at Raiders – 4:05 PM EST

Week 9 Recap:
-- Denver saw its four-game winning streak go up in smoke, falling at New England, 43-21 as three-point favorites. The Broncos allowed 24 points in the second quarter, as the Patriots put the game away by halftime. Peyton Manning threw for 438 yards in the loss, but the Broncos rushed for just 43 yards.
-- The Raiders continue to be the lone winless team in the league at 0-8, but Oakland managed a cover as 13 ½-point underdogs, 30-24 at Seattle. Oakland improved to 3-0 ATS as a ‘dog of at least seven points, as the best efforts for the Silver and Black this season have come against teams that overlook the Raiders.

Previous meeting: Denver has dominated Oakland in all four matchups since Manning arrived with the Broncos in 2012. Last season, the Broncos won each time by at least 16 points, including a 34-14 blowout at the Coliseum as 10-point favorites. The last time the Raiders beat the Broncos came in the opener of the 2011 season in Denver.

What to watch for: The Broncos look to extend their ‘over’ streak to six on Sunday, while Denver has won 14 of the previous 15 matchups against division foes. The Raiders have lost seven straight games at the Black Hole since last October, as the last home victory came against Pittsburgh in Week 8 of 2013 as 2 ½-point underdogs, 21-18.

Giants at Seahawks (-9, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 9 Recap:
-- New York suffered its third consecutive double-digit loss, falling to Indianapolis on Monday night, 40-24 as three-point home underdogs. The Giants allowed Andrew Luck to throw four touchdown passes as New York has been outgained in four consecutive contests.
-- The Seahawks are definitely going through a Super Bowl hangover at 5-3, as Seattle didn’t lose its third game last season until Week 16. Pete Carroll’s club held off the winless Raiders, 30-24, scoring the most points since the season-opener against the Packers. However, Seattle didn’t cover as double-digit favorites, failing to cover for the fourth straight game.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks traveled to Met Life Stadium last December and blanked the Giants, 23-0 as 9 ½-point favorites. Seattle’s defense intercepted Eli Manning five times in the shutout, while New York gained just 181 yards of offense. The Giants are making their first visit to Seattle since blowing out the Seahawks in 2010 by a 41-7 count.

What to watch for: New York has covered just once in four tries as a road underdog this season, while the ‘over’ has cashed in three of four away contests. Seattle looks to improve on a 20-2 SU and 15-7 ATS record at CenturyLink Field since the start of 2013, as six of the ATS losses came as a double-digit favorite.