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Auburn at Kansas State

September 16, 2014


In what will be the last week of mostly non-conference action, the Thursday night college football game this week presents an enticing matchup between Auburn and Kansas State. Gus Malzahn has enjoyed a legendary start to his coaching career while Bill Snyder is one of the all-time greats as two coaches that are tough to go-against, face off to kick off the fourth week of the season.

Match-up: Auburn Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Auburn -8½
Last Meeting: 2007, Auburn (-13½) 24-13 at Auburn

This will be a challenging wagering matchup as both coaches generally receive tremendous respect. Gus Malzahn and Auburn have now covered in 13 consecutive games and in two-plus seasons as a head coach at Arkansas State and now at Auburn, Malzahn is 23-5 S/U and 22-6 ATS. It has not been without some close calls as Auburn had more than a few fortunate wins last season and even the opening win over Arkansas this season featured a misleading 45-21 final as the game was tied at halftime. Many projected a bit of a step-back season for Auburn this year not due to a lack of talent, but due to a daunting schedule that features five challenging road games, with this week’s non-conference game being the first of those big tests.

Kansas State is 2-0 S/U this season but 0-2 ATS, actually needing an incredible comeback in the last game to beat Iowa State on the road. Bill Snyder is one of the most respected head coaches in the business with 180 victories in now 22+ seasons and since he returned to the sidelines in 2009 Kansas State is 43-21 S/U and an impressive 38-24-1 ATS. As an underdog, Snyder and Kansas State are on a 20-8 ATS run since 2009, including going 7-3 ATS as a home underdog. The Kansas State program consistently seems to outperform expectations and seasoned bettors generally need a very good reason to try to beat the Wildcats in a wager.

In an age of college football where most big non-conference matches have been shipped out to NFL stadiums for bigger payouts, this will be a rare chance for a home crowd to help its team spring a major upset. In the new era of the playoff system, the comparisons between conferences will be more important and in many ways this matchup is just as much Big XII vs. SEC as it is Kansas State vs. Auburn.

Many feel that the Big XII is vulnerable to being left out of the equation at the end of the year as it is a very difficult league to navigate undefeated with a nine-game conference schedule where everyone plays everyone and the league lacks a conference championship game for a late boost for the champion. A win by Kansas State here could go a long way for the selection committee at the end of the season, even if it is not Kansas State as the team reaping the benefit. A win by Auburn could help solidify the popular belief that the SEC will deserve two of the four teams in the playoff field.

Kansas State expects a record crowd and while Snyder Stadium is much smaller than most of the SEC venues (around 53,000 will be expected) where Auburn routinely plays, but it is recognized as one of the toughest places to play in the Big XII. Kansas State did lose S/U at home three times last season, but Snyder is 130-31-1 S/U at home since 1990.

It is no secret that for both teams running the ball is the key to success. Auburn has played a little bit tougher schedule through two games and has averaged 6.7 yards per rush while posting 330 yard per game. Kansas State has averaged 5.1 yards per rush for 236 yards per game. Both teams have been stout defensively against the run with Kansas State allowing just 3.0 yards per rush and Auburn allowing only 2.9 yards per rush. Whichever team controls the line of scrimmage and the ground game should emerge victorious.

Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters has already rushed for 193 yards this season after rushing for just 312 yards last season. His passing numbers are on a nearly identical pace to last season as he has completed 61 percent with a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but his numbers were far better against Stephen F. Austin than they were against Iowa State. Malzahn sent a clear message to his team as quarterback Nick Marshall did not play in the first half of the opener for disciplinary reasons, even with Auburn struggling to pull away from Arkansas. Marshall rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and he has just 14 completions so far in 2014 as Auburn has not been in many passing situations.

Kansas State was only a home underdog once last season, hosting Baylor in a game which Kansas State lost by 10 but covered the 17-point underdog spread. Prior to that, the Wildcats had not been a home underdog since 2011 and they are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2011, winning outright three times. Auburn was 2-0 as a road favorite last season winning and covering in that role at Arkansas and at Tennessee last season.

These teams did face off in 2007 to open the season with Auburn winning 23-13 at home, although Kansas State covered the spread just short of two touchdowns. That game featured Ron Prince coaching Kansas State and Tommy Tuberville coaching Auburn in what seems like ancient history. NFL stars Ben Tate and Jordy Nelson matched up for the offenses in that game as well.

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Big Ten Report - Week 4


September 18, 2014


GAME OF THE WEEK

Miami (Fla.) at Nebraska (-7) - 8:00 p.m. ET
The Huskers did an excellent job of not letting the trip to Fresno State become a "trap game" a week before Saturday's big matchup with Miami. Nebraska scored two long touchdowns in the first three minutes of the game to set the tone en route to 562 total yards and 55 points. The Huskers had six touchdowns of 20+ yards, including an 86-yard punt return for TD. RB Abdullah had another solid outing as he tallied 110 rush yards on 19 carries with a touchdown. We know Fresno is a bit down this year, but it was a promising performance for the Huskers on the road. Next up Nebraska's 5th ranked offense will get its first real test against the Hurricanes, who rank 10th in total defense. Miami has had two big home wins over FCS Florida A&M and Arkansas State the last two weeks after losing @Louisville to open the season. Freshman QB Brad Kaaya threw for 342 yards and 4 TD in last week's victory, but he's still prone to making the occasional freshman mistake as he already has 5 INT through three games. It helps that he has one of the nation's top RB's, Duke Johnson, sharing the backfield. Johnson has 277 rush yards (6.4 YPC) and two scores this season. Miami's defense vs. Nebraska's offense will be fun to watch. Miami surrenders just 92 rush yards per game on a measly 2.2 YPC. Abdullah will have to work to find space against this Miami front seven. The series is tied 5-5 between these two historical programs, with the last meeting coming in 2001. The Huskers are 51-4 SU hosting their last 55 non-conference opponents, but they are just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 non-conference games against Power Five conference opponents. Miami is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference road games as an underdog - including 0-4 SU & ATS as an underdog of seven points or more.

BEST OF THE REST

Utah at Michigan (-5) - 3:30 PM ET
After getting embarrassed against rival Notre Dame, the last thing Michigan needed was a scare from a Miami (OH) team that had lost 18 straight games. The Wolverines struggled for the better part of two quarters before pulling away late, 34-10. Despite letting the Redhawks hang around entirely too long, the Wolves still had +262 yards and +15 first downs. They held Miami to just 33 rush yards on 24 carries (1.4 YPC) and forced Redhawk QB Hendrix into just 12-of-26 passing for 165 yards. Michigan's RB Derrick Green led Michigan with 137 rush yards and 2 TD on 22 carries. QB Gardner was had an efficient day, completing 13-of-20 passes for 184 yards and 2 scores. We still have yet to see Michigan put it all together against a quality opponent; but this week's matchup with Pac-12 Utah will be another opportunity for the Wolves. Utah had last week off to prepare for this, their first road trip of the season. The Utes easily dispatched FCS Idaho state, 56-14, in week one and Fresno State, 59-27, in week two. Starting QB Wilson has been very good through two games - 446 pass yards, 6 TD, and 0 INT on 11.7 YPA - albeit against two sub par defenses. Wilson has two top playmakers on offense: RB Devontae Booker (20 carries for 145 yards and 2 TD) and WR Anderson, who is one of the top deep threats in the nation (18.7 YPC in 2013, 27.9 YPC so far this season). These two have only met twice in their history, both in Ann Arbor with both games decided by a total of five points (last meeting was 2008). Utah covered both of those games and is 4-0 ATS against Big Ten squads dating back to 2000. Michigan is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games hosting non-conference opponents. Utah is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 as an underdog of five points or more.

Indiana (+13) at Missouri - 4:00 PM ET
Hopes were high for a bowl run this year, but after a deflating loss to Bowling Green last week, it appears that the Hoosiers still aren't quite ready for primetime. There were 10 lead changes and 87 total points last week, with BG scoring the final touchdown with nine seconds remaining give the Falcons the win. Much like last year, Indiana's offense will have no problem putting up yards and points, but the defense will continue to hold them back. The Hoosiers rushed for 235 yards (6.4 YPC), passed for 347 yards, and were +1 in turnover ratio against BG last week. Unfortunately the defense allowed 571 yards and 39 first downs, including 395 pass yards and 3 pass TD to BG's 2nd string QB. IU goes on the road again this week to face an SEC school off to a hot start. Missouri is off to a 3-0 start and has won each of those games by 20+ points. On the offensive side, QB Maty Mauk is on a torrid pace as he already has 12 pass TD. RB's Hansbrough & Murphy each have 200+ rush yards on an identical 5.5 YPC average. They've picked up right where they left off in 2013, when they averaged 39 PPG and 471 YPG. Defensively the Tigers put together a solid performance against UCF last week, allowing just 299 yards and forcing four turnovers. UCF only managed 90 rush yards on 2.3 YPC. The Tigers will have to avoid looking ahead to next week as they visit South Carolina in a rematch of a double-overtime loss in 2013 - the only team to beat Mizzou in the regular season. These two met last season in Indiana. The game was tied 14-14 midway through the 2nd quarter, but two quick Mizzou scores prior to halftime - including a 49-yard INT return TD - allowing the Tigers to pull away (45-28 Missouri win). Missouri tallied 623 yards on offense and intercepted IU's Sudfeld three times. Indiana is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games as a double-digit underdog. Missouri is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games as a double-digit favorite.

Iowa (+6.5) at Pittsburgh - 12:00N ET
Iowa's mediocre play was enough to overcome FCS Northern Iowa in week one (8-point win) and Ball State in week two (4-point win), but it came back to bite the Hawkeyes last week against bitter-rival Iowa State. Iowa continued to struggled running the football (129 yards on 2.9 YPC) and the Hawks now rank 95th in rushing after three weeks. QB Jake Rudock is not good enough to lead the Hawks to victory on his own - 146 yards and an INT last Saturday - and Iowa will need to figure out its rushing woes if it wants to contend in the Big Ten. Defensively the Hawkeyes were stout against the run vs. ISU, allowing just 82 yards on 26 carries (3.2 YPC), but ISU QB Richardson had a big day. He completed 25-of-37 passes for 255 yards and 2 scores, leading ISU to the three-point win. Iowa will have its hands full when it visits Pitt this weekend. The Panthers come in averaging 344.3 rush yards per game (5th nationally) and 44.7 PPG (18th nationally). Iowa will want to limit Pitt's rushing attack and make sophomore QB Voytik make plays. Voytik has 5 TD and 2 INT so far, but is completing just 58% for 95 YPG through in his first year as a starter. Pitt HC Paul Chryst was formerly the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin, so he has a good idea of what he'll be facing this weekend when Iowa comes to town. These two last met in 2011. Pitt held a 27-10 lead @Iowa, but the Hawkeyes scored the final 21 points in a 31-27 win. Iowa is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine road games against non-Big Ten schools. Iowa is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 road games as an underdog of five points or more.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State (-45.5) - 12:00N ET
Michigan State had last week off after its deflating loss at Oregon in week two. For the better part of two quarters, Michigan State looked like the superior team to Oregon, leading 27-18 midway through the 3rd quarter. The wheels came off after that as Oregon scored the final 28 points of the game in the 46-27 win. MSU QB Cook completed just 29-of-47 passes and had 2 costly INT's while the rushing attack never really got going (123 yards on 3.4 YPC). The defense was good for a while, but Oregon's up-tempo pace clearly exhausted the Spartans in the 90+ degree temperatures. MSU allowed Oregon's Heisman candidate QB Mariota to throw for 318 yards and 3 scores while the Ducks added 173 rush yards. The 46 points allowed by MSU was the most under Dantonio since allowing 49 to #7 Penn State in 2008. Sparty is expecting a big bounce back win and the oddsmakers agree, slotting them as a 45.5-point favorite - the largest spread for MSU against a FBS school under Dantonio. Eastern Michigan takes to the road for the third time in three weeks after losing @Florida (0-65) and @Old Dominion (3-17). There's not a lot of good things to say about EMU. The Eagles rank 124th in yards per game (243.7) and 125th in points per game (11.3). Things aren't much better on defensive side of the ball as they allow 500 YPG and 36.7 PPG. They have a revolving door at QB as neither Brogan Roback nor Reginald Bell have seized the position. Former PSU QB Rob Bolden (17 career starts) led EMU on their lone scoring drive last week and coach Creighton said that Bolden could get the start this week. MSU is 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since 1993 against Eastern Michigan, winning by an average of 36.6 PPG. Eastern Michigan is 0-17 SU & 6-11 ATS since 1998 against Big Ten schools.

Massachusetts at Penn State (-26.5) - 4:00 PM ET
The Nittany Lions received news last week that they are allowed to go to a bowl game this year and after the win at Rutgers, they're halfway to eligibility. It definitely wasn't easy for the Nittany Lions against Rutgers. They had to battle back from a 10-0 halftime deficit and didn't take the lead until 1:13 remaining in the 4th quarter. PSU, once again, had trouble rushing the football, tallying just 64 yards on 33 carries (1.9 YPC). QB Hackenberg yet again had to lead the Lions to victory with a gritty performance (25-of-44 for 309 yards). Credit the defense for holding the Scarlet Knights to just 294 yards and 15 first downs, while also forcing five interceptions. PSU isn't bulletproof, but an opportunistic defense and a clutch QB will work wonders for a team. If they can figure out their offensive line/rushing issues, the Nittany Lions will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten. They'll have a chance to work on things as they take on Massachusetts this weekend. UMass is 0-3, but credit the Minutemen for playing hard for 60 minutes in all three losses. They were down 13-0 in the 3rd quarter against Boston College (L 7-30), had a chance to upset Colorado (L 38-41), and led the entire game @Vanderbilt before the Commodores took a lead with 1:08 remaining (L 31-34). If those three games are any indication, then UMass will not be a pushover here against the Nittany Lions. Penn State is just 4-8 ATS its last 12 games as a favorite of 20 points or more. Since becoming an FBS school in 2012, the Minutemen are 2-25 SU & 11-16 ATS. They are 5-10 ATS in the last 15 as an underdog of 15 points or more.

Bowling Green at Wisconsin (-27) - 12:00N ET
The Badgers were off Saturday but probably gained a bit more respect for their next opponent, as Bowling Green upset Indiana. In UW's last game, it wasn't easy to watch as the Badgers struggled to just a 9-3 halftime lead against FCS Western Illinois, but credit the Badgers for coming out hot in the 2nd half and racing to a 37-3 victory. Western Illinois stacked the box against the Badgers, limiting star RB Gordon to just 38 yards on 17 carries. QB McEvoy, who looked helpless in the week one loss to LSU, finally showed why he won the starting job. McEvoy completed 23-of-28 passes, including 17 straight at one point - for 283 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. It was a promising sight as McEvoy shined and the defense held Western Illinois to just 162 total yards and 11 first downs. Wisconsin will try to get Gordon back on track against this BG defense that allowed 235 rush yards to Indiana last week and ranks 125th nationally in yards allowed. Wisconsin has a better defense than IU and Bowling Green will have a difficult time moving the ball as easily as they did last week against the Hoosiers (571 total yards). The Falcons have been hit hard by the injury bug. They've already lost their starting QB and a starting WR to season-ending injuries and now they could be without four starters on defense for this game. Despite Bowling Green's solid win over Indiana, the oddsmakers aren't giving the Falcons much of a chance this weekend. The line on this game opened with Wisconsin favored by -21 and as of Wednesday morning it had already risen to -27. The Badgers are 61-7 SU at home over the last 10 years - 29-0 SU against non-conference opponents. Wisconsin is 7-3 in its last 10 home games as a favorite of 20 points or more. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 20 points or more.

Rutgers (+6) at Navy - 3:30 PM ET
Rutgers put together 58 minutes of excellent defense against Penn State last week, keeping the Nittany Lions out of the endzone and preserving a 10-6 lead. PSU went on a 80 yard drive that ended in a touchdown with just 1:49 left to take the lead & seal the victory. A lot of the blame can go square on the shoulders of QB Gary Nova, who had an absolutely abysmal game. Nova completed just 15-of-30 passes for 192 yards with 0 TD and 5 INT. Other than the performance by Nova, there's a lot of positives to take away from the loss. They surrendered just 64 rush yards on 33 carries and held star QB Hackenberg to just 25-of-44 passing with 0 TD and 1 INT. Next up the Scarlet Knights have to prepare for the unique triple-option attack as they travel to Navy to take on the Midshipmen. After losing in week one against Ohio State, Navy has put together back-to-back quality road wins at Temple and Texas State. (2-0 ATS). Their option attack has them 1st nationally in rush yards per game (403 rush YPG) as five players already have 140+ rush yards. They rushed it 57 times for 352 yards against Texas State last week despite not having the services of QB Keenan Reynolds (knee bruise). Reynolds was back at practice during the week and expects to start this game. Navy is just 3-8 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 10 points. The Midshipmen are just 2-6 ATS in the last eight against B1G teams, including a loss to Ohio State in week one. Rutgers is 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 as a road underdog, including a SU win over Washington State in week one.

Maryland (+1) at Syracuse - 12:30 PM ET
The Terrapins, like Rutgers, let one get away last week. Saturday's 40-37 home loss to West Virginia featured all kinds of drama and wild momentum swings that ended with a WVU 47-yard field goal at the buzzer, giving the Mountaineers the victory. Maryland's defense was overmatched by the up-tempo WVU attack. The Terps allowed 694 total yards and 33 first downs, including 511 passing yards and 4 pass TD to WVU QB Trickett. Maryland QB Brown did all that he could to keep the Terps afloat (241 pass yards, 161 rush yards), but the defense couldn't make plays when it counted. The Terps should be concerned that QB Brown accounted for 161 of their 163 rush yards, and their leading RB rusher has just 142 yards through three games. Maryland will travel to Syracuse this weekend in a rematch of an ACC matchup last year. The Terps tallied just 292 yards and 3 points in last year's home loss to the Orange. Syracuse has been sort of "Jekyll and Hyde" through their first two games. The Orange barely beat FCS Villanova in week one (W 27-26 in OT) but a blowout win over Central Michigan last week (W 40-3) got them back on track. Syracuse had +247 yards and +11 first downs over the Chippewas. QB Hunt had a breakout performance as he accounted for 267 yards and 4 TD. The Orange defense allowed just 34 rush yards on 23 carries (1.5 YPC) and held CMU to just 1-for-10 on 3rd down. With 15 starters returning from last year's team that finished 7-6, we have to believe that the arrow is pointing up for this team. Syracuse is 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games. Maryland is just 1-5 ATS in the week following the West Virginia rivalry game.

Texas State at Illinois (-14) - 4:00 PM ET
The Illini looked completely outmatched in their trip to Washington last week. Two early Illinois turnovers were returned for TD and that allowed the Huskies to go into halftime with a 38-12 lead. Illinois didn't put up much of a fight in the 2nd half as the Huskies coasted to a 44-19 victory. Illinois managed just 15 first downs (1-for-11 on 3rd down) and rushed for just 72 yards on 26 carries (2.8 YPC) despite playing a Washington defense that looked very vulnerable through its first two games. It's beginning to be a worrisome trend for Illinois - along with a number of other Big Ten squads - that they can't muster much of a rushing attack. The Illini have failed to exceed 78 rush yards in a game through three weeks. This weekend's opponent, Texas State, ranks 116th against the rush, so if Illinois can't get a rushing attack going this weekend, then it's really time to panic. The Bobcats defeated FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff in week one and lost to Navy last week. This will be their first road trip of the season and only their 2nd game ever against a Big Ten school (42-0 loss to Minnesota in 2002). Texas State has had three games against Power 5 schools over the past three years - all against Texas Tech. They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS, losing by an average of 38 PPG. Illinois is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games as a double-digit home favorite.

San Jose State vs. Minnesota (-8.5) - 4:00 PM ET
Minnesota didn't put up much of a fight in its trip to TCU last week. The Horned Frogs jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 30-7 victory. It became very apparent that the Gophers won't be able to contend in the Big Ten this year with their current passing attack. QB Leidner, who is a strong runner, isn't going to get it done through the air. He completed just 12-of-26 passes for 151 yards with 0 TD and 3 INT. His lack of progress last week repeatedly killed drives (Minnesota was 3-for-16 on 3rd down). Granted, he was a bit hobbled by a leg injury, but he was healthy enough to start. Through the first two weeks, Minnesota's rushing attack was solid enough to offset their passing deficiency. Against TCU, they were held to just 99 rush yards (2.5 YPC) and the 120th ranked passing attack couldn't lift them up. Next up they host San Jose State for the second consecutive year. Last year Minnesota held just a 20-17 halftime lead. The Gophers scored the first 23 points in the 2nd half and outgained SJSU 193-30 in that span. San Jose State was blown out by Auburn in their last game two weeks ago. The Spartans allowed Auburn to gain 358 rush yards and 26 first downs in the 59-13 rout. Minnesota is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 when favored by a touchdown or more. San Jose State is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games, but one of those losses was last year at Minnesota.

Western Illinois at Northwestern (no line) - 12:00N ET
Northwestern has dropped nine of its last 10 games, dating back to last season. They're 0-2 this year, but appear to be a solid bet to notch their first win against FCS Western Illinois this weekend. They had last week off after losing at home to Northern Illinois on September 6th. Northwestern continues to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Five of their seven losses in 2013 were by 10 points or fewer and they've already dropped two such games this season. Northern Illinois came into Evanston and handed Northwestern a 23-15 loss. NIU rushed for 221 yards on 4.0 YPC while QB Hare tossed 2 TD on just 10 attempts. Northwestern was stalled on offense as they totaled just 72 rush yards on 37 carries (1.9 YPC). To make matters worse, QB Siemian left in the 4th quarter with a leg injury. Siemian is back and will start on Saturday. Western Illinois traveled to Camp Randall to take on fellow Big Ten member Wisconsin on September 6th. They managed just 162 yards and 11 first downs in the 37-3 loss. Northwestern has won seven straight against FCS opponents by an average of 27 points per game.

Southern Illinois at Purdue (no line) - 12:00N ET
Purdue had a solid effort last week as a 30-point underdog against Notre Dame. The Boilermakers played on par with the Irish for the better part of two quarters before ND pulled away for the 30-14 win. It was a bit of a "moral victory" after Purdue got blown out by Central Michigan on September 6th - the same Central Michigan that just lost to Syracuse by 37 points. QB Etling had a solid outing as he completed 27-of-40 passes for 234 yards with 2 TD along with 2 INT. Purdue's defense had no answer for ND QB Golson, who accounted for 315 total yards and 3 TD. Purdue still appears to be one of the bottom-feeders in the Big Ten, and after this week against FCS Southern Illinois, they'll likely be the underdog in every game. Southern Illinois is ranked 13th in the FCS and has outscored its opponents 133-44. We'll find out Saturday if Purdue is better than the 13th ranked FCS program.

Ohio State - Bye Week
The Buckeyes' offense finally broke out against Kent State last week to the tune of 66 points, 33 first downs, and 628 yards. QB J.T. Barrett tossed for 312 yards and 6 TD, gaining some much-needed confidence as the Buckeyes inch closer to conference play. The defense was outstanding as well, holding Kent State to just 126 yards and 10 first downs while pitching a shutout. We know that it was against a lowly MAC program, but it was a much needed dominant performance after the home loss to VA Tech on September 6th. The Buckeyes will take this week off before they face Cincinnati on Sept. 27.

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ACC Report - Week 4
September 18, 2014

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 2-1 0-1 2-1 1-1-1

Clemson 1-1 0-0 1-1 2-0

Duke 3-0 0-0 1-1-1 0-2

Florida State 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

Georgia Tech 3-0 0-0 1-2 3-0

Louisville 2-1 1-1 2-1 1-2

Miami (Fla.) 2-1 0-1 1-2 1-2

North Carolina 2-0 0-0 0-2 0-1

North Carolina State 3-0 0-0 1-2 2-1

Pittsburgh 3-0 1-0 2-1 2-0-1

Syracuse 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1

Virginia 2-1 1-0 3-0 1-2

Virginia Tech 2-1 0-0 2-1 1-1

Wake Forest 1-2 0-0 1-2 1-2


Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Sometimes we can get a little carried away with past trends. For instance, Georgia Tech is 1-3-1 ATS in its past five road games, and 2-8-1 in its past 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. They're also 0-7 ATS in its past seven against a team with a winning mark. Virginia Tech is also 6-1 ATS in its past seven home games against a team with a winning road record. The Hokies were tripped up at home last week by East Carolina, though, which was a team with an 0-1 record on the road. The head-to-head trends seem to favor the Yellow Jackets in a big way, as Georgia Tech is 4-0 ATS in its past four trips to Blacksburg. The road team is also 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series, and the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the past eight.

Iowa at Pittsburgh (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Iowa hits the road after a setback at home to Iowa State on a last-second FG. That performance followed up an uninspiring win against Ball State. While the Hawkeyes are one of eight teams in FBS which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown, that will be put to the test against the Panthers, who are averaging 344.3 rushing yards and 44.7 points per game. RB James Conner is averaging 181.3 rushing yards per game, and will be a key contributor in this one. He needs just 21 yards to supplant former Pitt Heisman Trophy winner Tony Dorsett for the most rushing yards in school history through the first four games. Pitt has not started out 4-0 since 2000, but as a favorite by nearly a touchdown, they're expected to do just that.

Maryland at Syracuse (ESPN3, 12:30p.m. ET)

Maryland is now a Big Ten member, but these two were conference mates in the ACC just last year. The Terps have covered just seven of their past 22 against ACC foes, while the Orange is 8-3-1 ATS in its past 12 home games, 9-2 ATS in the past 11 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning overall record. As far as the total is concerned, most signs point to the over. The over is 8-2 in Maryland's past 10 against the ACC, 5-2 in their past seven on the road, and 5-2 in their past seven non-conference tilts. The over is 9-4-1 in the past 14 non-conference battles for 'Cuse, and 7-2 in their past nine in the month of September. However, a closer look shows the over barely cashed in the home opener for the Orange, a double-overtime thriller over Villanova, and the under cashed in last week's 40-3 win at Central Michigan.

Tulane at Duke (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Duke went to the ACC title game last season, and they have been to bowl games in back-to-back years. But they haven't started a season 4-0 in 20 years. They're favored by 17 points Saturday, and expected to remain unbeaten. If they wish to keep their record unblemished, they'll have to shut down Tulane frosh RB Sherman Badie, who ranks fifth in the land with 9.4 yards per carry. Duke's defense has been stout, allowing just 11.0 points per game, including just three in last week's lopsided win over Kansas. The 'under' is 2-0 for the Blue Devils this season.

North Carolina at East Carolina (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)

The total is set at 67 for this in-state battle in Greenville, so the scoreboard operator at Dowdy-Ficklen better be ready. After last week's surprising road win in Blacksburg, the Tar Heels better be ready, too. The Pirates likely will offer no quarter. ECU is a two-point favorite here, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. However, UNC has generally been favored in this series, and the Heels are 6-1 ATS in the past seven encounters. UNC leads the all-time series 12-3-1, winning two of the three battles in Greenville. However, UNC is just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 road games, while ECU has covered each of its past five at home, and their past four against ACC foes. However, East Carolina is just 3-13 ATS in the past 16 against a team with a winning overall record. Don't look too much into that, however, as they have consecutive covers against Virginia Tech and South Carolina, teams which have overall winning marks.

Louisville at Florida International (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)

The Golden Panthers can't do much worse than last season's meeting in Louisville, when the Cardinals carved up the Golden Panthers 72-0. While FIU looks for revenge, they'll be playing an angry Cards' team which lost its ACC road opener by a 23-21 count at Virginia last weekend. FIU rushed out to a 16-0 lead at home against Pitt only to fall behind and lose 42-25. Louisville has won 13 consecutive games against non-conference opponents, and they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven against a team with a losing record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five on the road against a team with a losing home mark. While FIU has been pretty terrible over the past couple of seasons, they have covered four straight, including last weekend's game vs Pitt, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five at home.

Virginia at Brigham Young (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)

Virginia has struggled against the number in recent seasons, but not this year. The Cavaliers enter this game 3-0 ATS in three games this season. BYU is favored by two touchdowns, and they are 2-1 ATS overall this season. However, while they won 33-25 last weekend against Houston in their home opener, the Cougars failed to cover. If UVA wants to be successful, they'll need to shut down BYU's red-hot red zone offense. They have managed 10 touchdowns and three field goals in 14 trips inside the opponent 20 this season. UVA has scored 44 points off turnovers while posting just 13 off teams' miscues last season. The under is 2-1 for both teams this season.

Miami (Fla.) at Nebraska (ESPN2, 8:00 p.m.)

These two rivals renew acquaintances at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln for the first time since 2002. If Miami is to pull the upset, they'll need a much better road performance from freshman QB Brad Kaaya, who lost his first road start at Louisville in a 31-13 setback. Miami has rebounded for wins against Florida A&M and Arkansas State, but the competition will be turned way back up this weekend. Nebraska struggled at home against McNeese State two weeks ago, barely scratching out a 31-24 victory in the final minute. However, they hit the road last week and humbled Fresno State 55-19. UM is 2-9 ATS in the past 11 overall, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning record. They're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road. Nebraska is 1-4 ATS in the past five at home, but 4-1 ATS in the past five against non-conference foes, including last week's win.

Clemson at Florida State (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)

Clemson heads to Tallahassee with revenge on their mind after getting thrashed soundly at Death Valley last season. Florida State will play the first two quarters with QB Jameis Winston on the bench after head coach Jimbo Fisher suspended him for shouting an obscenity on campus in public earlier this week. QB Sean Maguire is expected to take the reins of the offense. Clemson has already played one game on the road against a quality opponent, and they failed in that test, losing at Georgia 45-21 when they could not shut down RB Todd Gurley. They came back to throttle South Carolina State 73-7 before the bye last week. FSU opened with a shaky win and non-cover against Oklahoma State, 37-31, in a neutral-site game before winning just 37-12 against The Citadel two weeks ago despite being favored by more than eight touchdowns. FSU is favored by 17 points in this game despite being 0-2 ATS this season, and that's likely due to their 51-14 dismantling of Clemson on the road last season.

Other ACC teams in action

Maine at Boston College (ESPN3, 1:00 p.m.)

Army at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

Presbyterian at North Carolina State (6:00 p.m.)

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thurs, Sept. 18

Auburn at Kansas State, 7:30 ET
Auburn: 9-0 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Kansas State: 47-29 OVER after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers


Fri, Sept. 19

Connecticut at South Florida, 8:00 ET
Connecticut: 1-8 ATS after playing a non-conference game
South Florida: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite


Sat, Sept. 20

Indiana at Missouri, 4:00 ET
Indiana: 14-30 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs
Missouri: 13-4 ATS in all lined games

Massachusetts at Penn State, 4:00 ET
Massachusetts: 4-0 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive overs
Penn State: 18-7 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49

Marshall at Akron, 2:00 ET
Marshall: 7-18 ATS in road games off a home win by 17 points or more
Akron: 13-4 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers

Iowa at Pittsburgh, 12:00 ET
Iowa: 22-8 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards
Pittsburgh: 27-45 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers

Ball State at Toledo, 7:00 ET
Ball State: 19-7 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game
Toledo: 7-0 OVER in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses ATS

Maryland at Syracuse, 12:30 ET
Maryland: 23-10 ATS after being outgained by 225 or more total yds in their previous game
Syracuse: 0-9 ATS after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers

Idaho at Ohio, 12:00 ET
Idaho: 24-11 OVER in road games after playing a game at home
Ohio: 0-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Central Michigan at Kansas, 3:30 ET
Central Michigan: 10-1 ATS in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards
Kansas: 24-43 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses ATS

Troy at Georgia, 12:00 ET
Troy: 26-12 OVER as a road underdog
Georgia: 11-3 OVER after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored

Bowling Green at Wisconsin, 12:00 ET
Bowling Green: 6-0 UNDER as a road underdog
Wisconsin: 12-2 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs

Tulane at Duke, 12:30 ET
Tulane: 20-39 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins ATS
Duke: 13-4 ATS in all lined games

Army at Wake Forest, 3:30 ET
Army: 1-11 ATS as a road favorite
Wake Forest: 32-16 UNDER in non-conference games

North Carolina at East Carolina, 3:30 ET
North Carolina: 29-12 UNDER after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game
East Carolina: 3-13 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight non-conference games

San Jose State at Minnesota, 4:00 ET
San Jose State: 35-20 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game
Minnesota: 17-5 OVER in home games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game

Utah at Michigan, 3:30 ET
Utah: 0-7 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Michigan: 16-6 ATS after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, 12:00 ET
E Michigan: 15-37 ATS in non-conference games
Michigan State: 22-9 OVER after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games

South Carolina at Vanderbilt, 7:30 ET
S Carolina: 12-3 ATS in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers
Vanderbilt: 37-57 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Florida Atlantic at Wyoming, 4:00 ET
Florida Atlantic: 10-1 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
Wyoming: 2-11 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive unders

Hawaii at Colorado, 2:00 ET
Hawaii: 7-0 ATS in non-conference games
Colorado: 36-16 OVER after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game

MID Tennessee State at Memphis, 7:00 ET
Mid Tenn State: 6-0 UNDER off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival
Memphis: 33-16 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins ATS

Georgia State at Washington, 6:00 ET
Georgia State: 8-1 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games
Washington: 6-0 OVER after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

Appalachian State at Southern Miss, 7:00 ET
Appalachian St: 1-0 UNDER when the total is between 56.5 and 63
S Miss: 7-20 ATS in all games

Georgia Southen at South Alabama, 7:30 ET
Georgia S: 1-2 UNDER after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
S Alabama: 12-5 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest

Texas AM at SMU, 3:30 ET
Texas AM: 60-37 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS
SMU: 7-21 ATS off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more

Rutgers at Navy, 3:30 ET
Rutgers: 25-9 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56
Navy: 4-13 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins

Florida at Alabama, 3:30 ET
Florida: 52-30 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games
Alabama: 11-28 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers

UNLV at Houston, 8:00 ET
UNLV: 17-6 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
Houston: 30-16 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech, 12:00 ET
Georgia Tech: 7-22 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Virginia Tech: 58-35 ATS after playing a non-conference game

Oregon at Washington State, 10:30 ET
Oregon: 21-9 ATS in road games after playing a non-conference game
Washington St: 15-4 OVER in home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game

Clemson at Florida State, 8:00 ET
Clemson: 22-10 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game
Florida St: 38-20 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game

Virginia at BYU, 3:30 ET
Virginia: 5-15 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
BYU: 1-9 ATS off a home win

Texas State at Illinois, 4:00 ET
Texas St: 7-3 UNDER as a road underdog
Illinois: 53-77 ATS in home games

Old Dominion at Rice, 12:00 ET
Old Dominion: 0-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Rice: 66-40 ATS in home lined games

Louisville at Florida International, 3:30 ET
Louisville: 15-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Florida INT: 15-5 UNDER after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game

Miami Ohio at Cincinnati, 7:00 ET
Miami Ohio: 8-18 ATS in all lined games
Cincinnati: 6-16 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game

San Diego State at Oregon State, 10:30 ET
San Diego St: 20-8 ATS in road games off a road loss
Oregon St: 22-40 ATS in the first month of the season

Mississippi State at LSU, 7:00 ET
Mississippi St: 10-2 ATS in road games after playing 2 straight non-conference games
LSU: 22-39 ATS in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game

Northern Illinois at Arkansas, 7:00 ET
N Illinois: 57-36 ATS in road games
Arkansas: 60-40 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Utah State at Arkansas State, 7:00 ET
Utah St: 20-9 ATS in all games
Arkansas St: 16-6 UNDER after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game

New Mexico at New Mexico St, 8:00 ET
New Mexico: 8-1 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
New Mexico St: 0-6 ATS after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game

Miami Florida at Nebraska, 8:00 ET
Miami FL: 18-36 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Nebraska: 34-53 ATS after a win by 28 or more points

Oklahoma at West Virginia, 7:30 ET
Oklahoma: 19-42 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
West Virginia: 23-9 OVER in home games off 1 or more straight overs

California at Arizona, 10:00 ET
California: 4-14 ATS against conference opponents
Arizona: 16-32 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

UL - Lafayette at Boise State, 10:30 ET
UL Lafayette: 0-6 ATS in road games when playing on a Saturday
Boise St: 47-25 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

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NCAAF

Thursday, September 18

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Game of the Day: Auburn at Kansas State
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Auburn Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats (+8.5, 65.5)

As a member of the Southeastern Conference, Auburn faces plenty of elite opponents - both at home and on the road. However, the Tigers tend to play it safe when it comes to their non-conference schedule, as Thursday's matchup against Kansas State will mark the first time since 2002 that Auburn is playing a true road game against a ranked, non-conference opponent. The fifth-ranked Tigers have put up 104 points through two games thanks to a dominant rushing attack, while the 20th-ranked Wildcats know they need to improve upon their performance in Week 2.

“It’s going to take a heck of a lot of work,” Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters said, “and a heck of a lot of preparation and going out and executing (to beat Auburn). It is going to be a tough game, no matter what. We will be fortunate to come out on top. If we do, it will be a game that puts a stamp on the start of the season, but we have a lot of work still to do.” The Wildcats needed 19 unanswered points to defeat Iowa State 32-28 their last time out, while the Tigers dismantled San Jose State 59-13 but will have their work cut out for them against coach Bill Snyder's crew. "That's one of the toughest places to play," Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. "They've got an outstanding coach who's a legend. You can just watch them on film and they're very, very good at what they do. ... This will be our first road test. We're going on the road to a top 20 team, and any time you go on the road (against) a top 20, you better have your 'A' game. That's our challenge."

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as 9-point road faves and have been bet as high as -10, but have settled back down below the opening number and are now listed at Auburn -8.5. The Total opened at 66 and is down slightly to 65.5.

INJURY REPORT: Auburn - WR Sammie Coats (questionable Thursday, leg). Kansas State - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with a 17 percent chance of rain and temperatures will be in the mid 70s around kickoff. There will also be an eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from east to west.

POWER RANKINGS: Auburn (-23.5) - Kansas State (-14) + home field (-3) = Kansas State (+6.5)

ABOUT AUBURN (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U): The Tigers had 358 rushing yards against San Jose State and rank seventh nationally with 330 per game while running for at least 200 in 13 consecutive contests. Quarterback Nick Marshall has not had to do much through the first two weeks, but he still has guided Auburn to 12 straight games of at least 30 points - a school record. Defensively, the Tigers registered 10 tackles for loss against San Jose State, including three by defensive tackle Montravius Adams.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (2-0, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Following a 39-point win over Stephen F. Austin in Week 1, the Wildcats needed a second-half rally that included two rushing touchdowns by Waters - who finished with a career-high 138 yards on the ground - to defeat the Cyclones. Charles Jones also ran for a pair of scores as Kansas State recorded its first come-from-behind victory since 2011. The Wildcats continue to receive strong play from senior wideout Tyler Lockett, who racked up 136 receiving yards against Iowa State and needs one more 100-yard effort to break the school record of 10 that he currently shares with Jordy Nelson (2005-07) and Quincy Morgan (1999-2000).

TRENDS:

* Auburn is 11-0 in its last 11 games following an ATS win.
* Kansas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 6-1 in Auburn's last seven games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Kansas State's last 11 games following a bye week.

CONSENSUS: Almost 59 percent of wagers are backing Auburn at -8.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 18


Auburn red-hot ATS after covering in previous game

The No. 5 ranked Auburn Tigers visit No. 20 Kansas State to kick off Week 4 college football action Thursday evening.

After covering the spread in their last matchup - a 59-13 pounding of San Jose State in Week 2 - trends are pointing in a positive direction for spread bettors backing Auburn again this week.

In their last 11 games following an ATS win, the Tigers are a perfect 11-0 against the spread. Auburn is currently 8.5-point road faves with a total of 64.5 for the matchup.


Tigers a boon for Over bettors

The Auburn Tigers have had no problem putting plenty of points on the board as of late. The Over is a sizzling 6-1 in the Tigers' last seven games.

Week 4's first NCAAF matchup sees Auburn visit Kansas State Thursday evening. The Tigers are presently -8.5 favorites with the total set at 64.5.

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NCAAF

Week 4


Connecticut-USF have history of going Under

When Connecticut and South Florida get together for Friday night college football action, there's one particular trend bettors need to pay attention to.

In the last four meetings between the two schools, the Under is a perfect 4-0. USF is currently 2-point home faves with a total of 46.


UConn has had problems covering in September

The month of September has not been kind to spread bettors backing the University of Connecticut. The Huskies are a paltry 1-6 against the spread in their last seven September games.

Connecticut faces off against South Florida in the Sunshine State Friday, where the Huskies are currently listed as 2-point road dogs with a total of 46.


This trend favors FSU over Clemson

Florida State has had no problem coming through on the big stage, an opportunity they'll have against the Clemson Tigers in Week 4 NCAAF action.

College GameDay will be in Tallahassee Saturday, which is a good omen for the school. According to a tweet from @JeffGrantSports, the Seminoles have won their last five games when the broadcast team visits campus. The 'Noles have won by an average of 17 points over those five contests.

Florida State will be without reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston for the first half of the game for his use of 'vulgar language' in the student union Tuesday.

FSU is currently 17-point home faves with a total of 60.5 for the matchup.


Jameis Winston's first half benching causes line move

Florida State Seminoles Heisman-winning quarterback Jameis Winston will be on the bench for the first half of Saturday’s game against the Clemson Tigers, forcing most sportsbooks to pull the odds off the board Wednesday afternoon.

Florida State opened as a 20-point home favorite and moved to -17 before news of Winston’s punishment was made public.

“We have it closed right now, but the line has gone from -20 to -17 (-105),” says a spokesman for GTBets.eu. “No first-half line for that game at the moment.”

"For the full game, Winston has to be worth four points against most teams," says the spokesman.

"After the news of Winston's first half benching broke, we took the line off the board at -19.5 and re-posted it at -16.5 shortly after," says Jeff Sherman of the Westgate LV SuperBook.

"We opened the Seminoles as 19.5-point favorites and have since move them to 16.5-point home faves," says Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag. "So far the action on Florida State is all on the moneyline at 82 percent while the the spread is seeing all Tigers action as Clemson is getting 94 percent to cover."

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NCAAF

Thursday, September 18


Auburn on sizzling ATS run

The Auburn Tigers hit the road Thursday night to take on the Kansas State Wildcats, as they look to extend their red-hot run of covering the spread.

Auburn has covered the spread in 13 consecutive games, covering by an average of almost 12 points per game.

The Tigers are currently nine-point point favorites against the Kansas State.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, September 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Auburn 0 0th Kansas State +7 500 *****

Kansas State 0 Over 64 500 *****

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Pac-12 Report - Week 4

September 19, 2014

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2

Arizona State 3-0 1-0 1-2 1-2

California 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Colorado 1-2 0-1 1-2 1-2

Oregon 3-0 0-0 1-2 2-1

Oregon State 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

Southern California 2-1 1-0 2-1 2-1

Stanford 2-1 0-1 2-1 0-2

UCLA 3-0 0-0 0-3 1-2

Utah 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0

Washington 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2

Washington State 1-2 0-0 1-2 2-1


Hawaii at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Colorado played well last week in a two-touchdown loss to Arizona State, covering the spread in the process. The Buffaloes are not quite back yet, but a resounding win against Hawaii as an eight-point favorite would be a nice start. It won't be easy, though, as the Warriors have covered each of its first two against Pac-12 teams this season, narrowly losing to Washington Aug. 30 by a 17-16 score (17-point dog), while dropping a 38-30 decision to Oregon State (10-point dog). In fact, Hawaii is 3-0 ATS this season, they have covered five straight, and they are 8-0 ATS in its past eight non-conference affairs. Bettors might look to the total, as the under is 2-1 for both teams this season. The under is 4-1 in Hawaii's past five against Pac-12 foes, and the under is 7-2 in Colorado's past nine against Mountain West opponents, including their opener against Colorado State.


Utah at Michigan (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30p.m. ET)
Utah packs up and heads east to meeting Michigan in the Big House, and Vegas has the Wolverines as a favorite by just over a field goal in most shops. While Utah is 4-0 ATS in the past four against Big Ten foes, and 35-17-2 ATS in their past 54 non-conference tilts, their 2-6 ATS record in the past eight road games is rather glaring. Consider Michigan is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 home games, and the home team could be a very popular play. Don't forget, though, that Michigan has failed to cover in its past seven against Pac-12 opponents, they're just 1-5 ATS in the past six against non-conference opponents, and the Wolverines have managed to cover just two of their past seven against teams with a winning record. Maybe the over is the better targeted play. Utah is 5-1 in the past six non-conference battles, and 4-1 in their past five overall - including both games this season. The under has cashed in each of Michigan's past two, though, and that includes last week's lackluster 34-10 win against Miami (Ohio).

California at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m.)
The way Cal played last season, it is hard to believe they would come into this game unbeaten, but they have played extremely well and appear to be trending upward in a big way. Still, this will be a big test for a team which is 3-11 ATS in its past 14 games against a team with a winning record and 2-12 ATS in the past 14 Pac-12 games. Cal is also just 2-6 ATS in the past eight on the road. However, one of those covers came in their opener at Northwestern. Arizona hasn't exactly shredded the spread, either, going 1-4 ATS in the past five conference tilts, and 3-9 ATS in the past 12 against a team with a winning overall mark. And trends are conflicting in this series, with the home team going 6-1 ATS in the past seven, but Cal covered four of the past five. Where the trends are in agreement is the under, which has cashed in six of the past eight meetings. The under is also 6-2-1 in Cal's past nine conference games, 5-1 in their past six road games (including Aug. 30 at Northwestern), and 7-3-1 in the past 11 overall. The under is 7-1 in Arizona's past eight at home, and 19-6-1 in their past 26 home games against a team with a winning road record.

San Diego State at Oregon State (FOX Sports 1, 10:30 p.m.)
The Aztecs nearly pulled up a huge upset on the road two weeks ago in Chapel Hill, falling short against North Carolina. They have had two weeks to think about Oregon State, a team they also frittered away a fourth-quarter lead against last season. San Diego State appeared primed for an upset because Oregon State somehow found a way to pick up a 34-30 win. The Aztecs come in rested and with plenty of motivation. They're a 10-point underdog, but that might be a bit much considering Oregon State is 0-2 ATS so far this season, while SDSU has covered six of its past seven, including 2-0 ATS this season.

Oregon at Washington State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
For whatever reason, the Ducks just haven't seemed to have a lot of luck in Pullman over the years. They head into this one 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings with the Cougars, and 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to the Palouse. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. That might scare many off the 23-point number, but Oregon is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 road games, and 33-16-2 ATS in the past 51 against a team with a losing record. Washington State has done next to nothing this season, losing at home to Rutgers and tumbling on the road at Nevada before taking their frustrations out on poor Portland State in a 59-21 win last weekend to finally cover for the first time. The over is 2-1 for the Cougs, and that might be the play here, even at 75 points. Oregon has scored 46 or more points in each of their three games, including against Michigan State's vaunted defense, and the over is 2-1 in their three outings, too. The over has connected in five of the past six in this series, and five of the past six meetings in Pullman.

Other Pac-12 team in action
Georgia State at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)

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Bad Company - Week 4

September 18, 2014

Three weeks into the college football and there are several teams that have shown they are national championship contenders and others that are just trying to stay competitive. A handful of clubs are the “sacrificial lamb” as they are receiving many points and hope to cover to help out pointspread backers. This week, we’ll take a look at five teams that are huge underdogs and look to hang around with superior foes.

Troy (+41) at Georgia – 12:00 PM EST

The Trojans finished last season at 6-6, so this isn’t a team with a history of losing. However, Troy is 0-3 out of the gate, capped off by an embarrassing 38-35 defeat to Abilene Christian last week as 11-point home favorites. Troy blew a 21-7 lead in that setback to an FCS school, while allowing Abilene nearly 500 yards of offense.

Maybe it was a sign of a bad season for Troy after it was routed in the season opener at UAB, 48-10, as the Blazers won just two games last season. Troy normally schedules SEC schools at least once a year (or SEC schools schedule the Trojans) as last season, Troy failed to cover in blowout losses at Mississippi State (62-7) and Mississippi (51-21). Georgia is coming off last week’s loss at South Carolina, while hosting Tennessee next week, so the Bulldogs will try to be on cruise control this Saturday. UGA is 0-3 ATS in its last three home games against non-conference foes, failing to cover against Buffalo, FAU, and North Texas.

Eastern Michigan (+45) at Michigan State – 12:00 PM EST

This is plenty of points of swallow if you back the Spartans, as Michigan State is taking the field for the first time since getting blown out at Oregon two weeks ago. The Spartans allowed 46 points to the Ducks, as MSU hadn’t given up more than 28 points in any game during the 2012 and 2013 seasons. However, backing the Spartans may be a tough proposition this week as they own a 3-11 ATS record since 2012 at Spartan Stadium as a home favorite.

Eastern Michigan squeezed past Morgan State in its opener before getting routed at Florida as 40 ½-point underdogs, 65-0. The Eagles managed a cover as 20 ½-point ‘dogs in last week’s 17-3 setback at Old Dominion, while limiting the Monarchs to 187 yards passing. EMU owns a 4-9 ATS record in its past 13 games in the road underdog role since 2012, which includes a 23-7 loss in East Lansing as 31 ½-point ‘dogs in 2012.

SMU (+33 ½) vs. Texas A&M – 3:30 PM EST

The Mustangs have turned in a pair of ugly efforts in losses to Baylor and North Texas in the first two games of the season. Head coach June Jones resigned days after the 43-6 drubbing at North Texas, as the Mustangs have been outscored 88-6 through the 0-2 start. Now, SMU plays its home opener against a Texas A&M squad that has put up a whopping 163 points in three victories over South Carolina, Lamar, and Rice.

For what it’s worth, the Mustangs have covered five of their past seven games as a home underdog since 2012. However, SMU has lost three straight meetings to Texas A&M in blowout fashion (46-14 in 2011, 48-3 in 2012, and 42-13 in 2013), as the Aggies easily cashed each time. The Aggies failed to cover in three opportunities as a road favorite last season, while going 0-3 ATS under Kevin Sumlin on the road off a home victory.

Georgia State (+34 ½) at Washington – 6:00 PM EST

It was a long first season for Georgia State in 2013, moving from the FCS level to the FBS. The Panthers compiled an 0-12 record last season, but found a way to cover in seven of nine lined games. This season, the Panthers were actually listed as favorites in its first two contests against Abilene Christian and New Mexico State, but failed to cash. Georgia State staved off Abilene in the opener, 38-37, while losing a three-point decision to New Mexico State. However, the Panthers grabbed a pointspread win in a 48-38 home loss to Air Force as 12-point ‘dogs.

Now, Georgia State hits the road for the first time to take on a Washington club that finally covered after ATS losses to Hawaii and Eastern Washington. The Huskies crushed Illinois last Saturday, 44-19 as 13-point favorites, while jumping out to a 35-5 lead in the second quarter. Washington may be in a look-ahead spot here, hosting Stanford next week in the Pac-12 opener. In 2013, the Huskies posted a 1-4 ATS record following an ATS win, so keep an eye on Washington winning and potentially not covering.

Miami-Ohio (+28) at Cincinnati – 7:00 PM EST

The Redhawks were part of this feature last week as they managed to hang with Michigan at the Big House as 31-point underdogs. The Wolverines eventually cruised to victory, but Miami covered in a 34-10 defeat after trailing 17-10 midway through the third quarter. Miami has lost 15 straight games since the start of 2013, but they have cashed twice as heavy ‘dogs this season, including the opener at Marshall.

Does Miami keep it up this week with a battle against cross-state rival Cincinnati? The Bearcats blanked the Redhawks last season, 14-0, as Miami easily covered as 24 ½-point underdogs. Cincinnati jumped out to a 34-0 second quarter lead in its opener last Friday against Toledo, but the Rockets rallied back to cut the deficit to seven in the fourth. The Bearcats opened things up late and covered as 9 ½-point favorites, 58-34, as UC hopes to avoid a look-ahead with a trip to Columbus next week to face Ohio State.

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Huskies, Bulls open AAC play

September 17, 2014


UConn Huskies (1-2) at South Florida Bulls (1-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: South Florida -1.5, Total: 47.5

Two struggling teams square off in an American Athletic Conference battle on Friday when UConn travels to South Florida.

The Huskies have looked very poor in the early going of the 2014 season, as they have taken losses against both BYU and Boise State, while their only win was a three-point victory (19-16) against Stony Brook, which is an FCS club. Their game against Boise State last week was actually quite close though, as Connecticut cut the deficit to three points just before the final quarter, but could not hold off the Broncos, allowing two late touchdowns while failing to cover the 15-point spread. The Huskies managed 290 yards of offense with a meager 48 coming from the running game.

The Bulls are coming off of a 2-10 season and are not looking to have improved much in 2014. Just like its opponent, USF’s one win came against an FCS team, Western Carolina, in the opening week by a score of 36-31. Since then, the Bulls have averaged just 17.0 PPG in their two losses and really took a beating (49-17) at the hands of NC State as 2.5-point underdogs most recently. South Florida gained a putrid 159 yards of offense in the matchup as they turned the ball over three times and gave up 589 total yards to the Wolfpack.

Last season’s installment of this matchup was extremely ugly, as the Bulls went on the road and won 13-10 as 3.5-point underdogs despite connecting on only 8-of-28 passes for 106 yards. Connecticut holds a slight 5-4 SU edge (4-4 ATS) between these programs since 2007 and has won SU in its past two visits to South Florida.

The Bulls have not done well at all as a favorite with a 0-8 ATS record since the start of 2012 while the Huskies have gone just 2-11 ATS in the first half of the year in the same timeframe.

The injury to QB Casey Cochran (concussion) is a blow to the Connecticut club, as he will be out for the entire season, while bettors should keep an eye on whether or not playmaking WR Andre Davis (sternum) suits up for USF, since he is listed as questionable.

UConn has one of the worst run games in the nation, ranking seventh-worst among FBS schools in rushing yards (76 YPG) while doing slightly better in the passing game (223 YPG) and scoring 16.7 PPG (9th-lowest in nation). With Casey Cochran out for the season, QB Chandler Whitmer (464 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has taken over under center. He has not done well over the past two seasons with the program, throwing 14 TD and 22 INT, and is completing less than 50 percent of his passes in 2014.

Unfortunately, the team will be relying on him heavily to guide them, as their running game does little to nothing as HB Max DeLorenzo leads the sad group with 104 yards (3.6 YPC). The one true bright spot on this club is WR Geremy Davis who has 256 receiving yards (16.0 avg) and two touchdowns this year, and was the key to their one win as he grabbed six balls for 113 yards (18.8 avg) and a touchdown.

The Huskies defense has given up 406.5 YPG to opponents in FBS play thus far, and hope that a strong secondary led by senior DB Byron Jones (12 tackles) can help turn things around.

South Florida is similar to its Friday opponent, in that the offense has been poor in 2014, averaging 371 YPG with just 182.5 YPG of that coming from the passing attack. QB Mike White (275 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) has been very unimpressive while completing 32.6% of his attempts that have gone for a low 6.4 YPA. Last week NC State baffled White as he completed 4-of-16 attempts for 82 yards and a TD.

Freshman HB Marlon Mack (399 yards, 4 TD) has been a great surprise for the Bulls, but had most of his production come in the opening win against Western Carolina when he rushed for 275 yards (11.5 avg) and four touchdowns. The receivers on this team will not impress anyone with WR Rodney Adams (116 yards) leading the team, while WR Deonte Welch (76 yards) has the most receptions (seven) and WR Reyshene Bronson (80 yards) has the lone touchdown.

The defense for the Bulls had its worst game last week, but will look to turn things around behind leader LB Reshard Cliett (7 tackles, 2 sacks).

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Can NCAAF heavyweights continue with championship dreams crushed?

Some title contenders have already had their national championship dreams shattered, and we’re only four weeks into the college football season.

Often times, programs with high hopes come crashing down after a crushing loss and lack motivation for the rest of the year, making them a play-against selection for football bettors.

We look at five teams that suffered a major blow to their playoff hopes and if they can recover before it’s too late:

Georgia Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Next game: -41 vs. Troy

Georgia's loss came at the hands of South Carolina last weekend. Georgia scored 35 points and lost by just three points. While there were some issues with offensive playcalling in key spots and the missed field goals loom large, the big issues are on defense. A lack of a pass rush against the Gamecocks exposed the secondary.

Georgia has just two ranked teams left on the schedule (Missouri and Auburn) and if it can figure out those issues on defense the Bulldogs can be a real contender for the College Football Playoff. Georgia should rebound and it could get back to the SEC Championship Game but it’s tough to see UGA making it through the rest of the scheduled unscathed.


Michigan State Spartans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Next game: -45.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

After looking like they had the Oregon game in hand, the Spartans fell victim to a second-half avalanche of scoring from the Ducks to lose big. A number of factors went into the loss, including Michigan State's offensive line not performing well in the second half and the Spartans defense giving up two blown coverage touchdowns – all of which can come down to fatigue after trying to play at Oregon’s pace for four quarters.

The Big Ten has had a rough start to the season and that will have a big impact on the Spartans’ chances to get into the playoff. Michigan State still plays two Top 25 teams but those opponents are currently ranked No. 24 and No. 25. The Spartans have the ability to run the table on the rest of their schedule but even if they do they will most likely be left on the outside looking in.


Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

Next game: vs. Cincinnati (Sept 27)

Without Braxton Miller, the Buckeyes got controlled in their loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2. A bigger factor than the loss of Miller was the Buckeyes’ inability to get any production from the running back position.

Ohio State has just one game remaining with a Top 25 team (Michigan State). I see the Buckeyes with a least one more loss once the season ends.


South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Next game: -22 at Vanderbilt

The Gamecocks started out the season getting embarrassed by Texas A&M. It was a bad matchup and they simply weren't prepared to play. But they rebounded by pulling off an upset of rival Georgia last Saturday.

The Gamecocks have games left against Auburn, Clemson and Missouri and have a legit shot at getting back into the College Football Playoff, but the Gamecocks will likely lose at least one more game which will leave them on the playoff chopping block.


USC Trojans (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

Next game: vs. Oregon State (Sept 27)

After beating Stanford, the Trojans fell to Boston College by six points on the road. They simply had no answer to the Eagles’ rushing attack as they finished with 452 yards rushing.

Southern Cal has three games left against Top 15 opponents and out of all five of these teams, USC probably has the lowest chance to rebound and make the College Football Playoff. The Trojans do have the benefit of not playing Oregon but it’s possible they drop another three or four games if last weekend was any indication.

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NCAAF

Friday, September 19

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Game of the Day: Connecticut at South Florida
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Connecticut Huskies at South Florida Bulls (-2, 45)

Very little went right for South Florida in its first season under then-rookie coach Willie Taggart, with one of the few exceptions being how it played at the start of its conference schedule. The Bulls on Friday look to win their American Athletic Conference opener for the second straight season when they host Connecticut. South Florida went 2-10 in 2013 – the worst campaign in its 17-year football history – but managed to defeat Cincinnati and the Huskies to begin league play last October.

The Bulls did not score an offensive touchdown in either victory and have only tallied one in each of their last two losses since freshman Marlon Mack rushed for four by himself in a season-opening win over Western Carolina. Connecticut also secured its only victory against an FCS foe in Stony Brook, although it was able to frustrate undefeated Brigham Young in its opener and played Boise State tight through three-plus quarters last Saturday. The Huskies and Bulls have met every year since 2005 and each of the former Big East rivals’ last seven meetings has been decided by seven points or fewer.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: South Florida opened as 3.5-point home faves, but have been bet down to -2. The total opened at 47.5 points and has also been bet down to 45.

INJURY REPORT: Connecticut - N/A. South Florida - OL Thor Jozwiak (probable Friday, arm), WR Andre Davis (questionable Friday, sternum).

WEATHER REPORT: The is supposed to be a thunderstorm in the region and an 80 pecent chance of rain at game time. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s, with humidity reaching as high as 84 percent.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (1-2, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): First-year coach Bob Diaco was pleased with his defense despite giving up 38 points last week as it held Boise State 245 yards below its season average in total offense and limited Broncos’ running back Jay Ajayi 113 yards under his season rushing average. "The defense, playing basically the same system they played in week one, looked nothing like it looked in week one. I'm proud of the way that they played today," Diaco said. Chandler Whitmer became the eighth player in program history to surpass 4,000 passing yards after throwing for a season-high 209 last week.

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): The Bulls have played eight freshmen this season and two have already left a mark on the offensive end, including Mack’s AAC-record 275 yards rushing yards in the opener. In last weekend’s 49-17 loss to North Carolina State, it was Ryeshene Bronson’s turn as the freshman receiver collected two catches for 80 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown reception early in the first quarter. Andre Davis, who led South Florida with 49 catches and 735 yards last season, remains questionable after suffering a bruised sternum against Western Carolina.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 7-0 in South Florida's last seven games versus a team with a losing record.

CONSENSUS: Just over 65 percent of wagers are backing South Florida at -2.

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Thursday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------1 - 1

Double Plays--------------------------0 - 0

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

20 - 14......................................*****

10 - 14.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

7 - 9 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

4 - 2 ....................................LIGHTS OUT


Friday, September 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Connecticut - 8:00 PM ET Connecticut +2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

South Florida - Over 43.5 500 ******