The Bum's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, Aug. 30

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PENN STATE vs. UCF (at Dublin, Ireland)...Franklin PSU debut. Franklin 25-14 vs. line at Vandy past three years. But Nittany Lions 1-4 vs. line last five away. UCF won at Happy Valley LY and O'Leary has won and covered last four openers. Slight to UCF, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE at NAVY (at Baltimore)...Mids 5-1 as dog LY and covered 7 of last 8. Navy 6-3 as DD dog since 2009 and 18-8 overall as dog since 2009. Urban Meyer only 7-10 as DD chalk the past two years and 3-5 as chalk away from Big Horseshoe, and 4-5 vs. line non-league. Navy, based on team trends.

UCLA at VIRGINIA...Mike London in trouble, Cavs 7-16-3 vs. line since late 2011. UVa 2-5-1 last 8 as home dog, 4-5-1 as DD dog past two years. Also 2-9-1 last 12 vs. non-ACC foes. Mora 6-2 as DD chalk past two years. UCLA, based on UVa woes.

APP STATE at MICHIGAN...Remember 2007! Hoke 7-5 as home chalk past two years, 6-3 laying DD (4-1 in role in 2012), but 3-6 last nine vs. non-conference. Slight to App, based on Hoke non-Big 10 marks.

TROY at UAB...Clark UAB debut. Troy has won SU last 3 and 4 of last 5 years vs. UAB. Blazers 3-8 vs. SU at home since 2012. Blakeney 8-4-1 vs. line away since 2012. Troy, based on team trends.

CAL at NORTHWESTERN...After 12-1 spread mark in 2012, NU slipped to 3-9 LY and ended season dropping 9 of last 10 vs. number, many in brutal fashion. But Cats did win and cover at Cal in opener and Fitzgerald has won SU in all 8 of his openers. NU 12-6 vs. line last 18 vs. non-Big 10. Fitz only 10-18 as Evanston chalk since 2006. Cal also only 3-9 LY in Dykes debut and also 1-11 SU, Cal 6-19 last 25 vs. spread since late 2011 and 2-8 last 10 as dog away from Berkeley. Dykes on 3-14 spread run last 17 dating to end of La Tech tenure. NU, based on recent Cal/Dykes negatives.

GA SOUTHERN at NC STATE...Eagles have been on spread once in each of last four years and covered all! Fritz debut at GSU. Doeren awful debut LY at NCS, 1-7 vs. line last 8 and a winless SU ACC mark. GSU, based on recent NCS negatives.

FAU at NEBRASKA...Would have been Pelini vs. Pelini LY, now it is Partridge FAU debut. Owls 14-4 as dog since 2012 (post-Schnellenberger) and 10-1 as DD dog past two years. Also 17-5 last 22 vs. line overall. Pelini 5-1 laying 20 or more since 2012 but only 7-9 last 16 overall on board since late 2012. FAU, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at UMASS...Game is actually closer to BC campus than UMass. Whipple debut (or re-debut) UMass. Minutemen 7-13 as DD dog past two years for Molnar, and so-so 5-6 vs. line as "host" in Foxborough. Eagles only 6-17 as road chalk since 2004 (1-3 past two years) and no covers last four openers. Also 2-10 vs. line away past two years. Slight to UMass, based on extended BC road chalk negatives.

MARSHALL at MIAMI-OHIO...Martin Miami debut. Herd romped 52-14 LY but must note 1-5 visiting chalk mark LY and 1-8-1 in role since Doc Holliday took over in 2010. Can we trust RedHawks? Miami 2-9-1 vs. line LY and 6-17-1 since 2012, also 2-10 as DD dog since 2012. Slight to Marshall, based on Miami-O woes.

RICE at NOTRE DAME...Owls 6-1 as visiting dog since 2012, also 17-10-1 last 28 on board. Brian Kelly only 8-10-1 as home chalk since 2010 and Irish 14-27-1 last 42 in role since late 2005. Irish 4-8 as DD chalk past two years. Rice, based on team trends.

ALABAMA vs. WEST VIRGINIA (at Atlanta)...Holgorsen just 11-26 vs. spread last 37 on board for WVU. Though Mounties are 4-3 as a DD dog for Holgorsen. Nick Saban 13-7 vs. line last 20 away from Tuscaloosa, 27-15 as DD chalk since 2010, 18-11 last 29 laying 20 or more. Nick has also won SU all seven openers at Bama and covered the last six opening games as well. Bama, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at AUBURN...Malzahn 3-1 as DD chalk LY and 4-2 as home chalk. Auburn covered its last 11 games a year ago, though note that it has failed to cover last four openers. Bielema's Wiscy dog marks did not translate to Ark LY, as Hogs were 3-6 as short, but were 3-2 as DD dog in 2013. Ark 6-17 vs. line since 2012 (counts John L's year). Auburn, based on recent team trends.

CLEMSON at GEORGIA...Revenge for Richt after last year's 38-35 loss at Death Valley. Richt only 3-9-1 vs. line LY but in the past has often bounced back strongly from subpar spread records. UGa only 3-7 vs. line against non-SEC past two years and is 5-9 last 14 as home chalk. Dabo 10-6 last 16 as dog and 5-1 as visiting dog since 2009. Clemson, based on team trends.

OHIO at KENT STATE...Kent State has owned this series, winning 4 of last 5 SU and covering all of those five. Solich 1-6 as visiting dog past three seasons. Flashes 11-5 vs. line at Dix Stadium since 2011 (though just 2-3 in Paul Haynes' debut LY). Kent State 5-0 as 3-pt. or less chalk since 2011. Kent State, based on series trends.

LA TECH at OKLAHOMA...Skip Holtz on quite a spread slide, 4-8 LY, 8-24-1 last 33 since early 2011 at USF & LT. Bulldogs also on 4-14 spread slide since mid 2012. Skip 1-3 as DD dog LY and 1-5 overall as dog, as his long ago solid marks in that role seem just a memory. Stoops only 9-9 laying 20 or more the past four seasons and only 34-31 vs. line past five seasons. OU, based on recent La Tech/Skip shortcomings.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at PURDUE...Purdue was real horseshoe LY with 1-11 SU and 4-8 spread records as Hazell rep took a beating. WMU not any better in Fleck debut, also 1-11 SU and 4-8 vs. line. Broncos 3-4 as DD dog but were 4-2 as road dog and covered both tries vs. Big Ten foes LY. Slight to WMU, based on Purdue negatives.

IDAHO at FLORIDA...Florida not really testing itself in opener. Muschamp just 1-4 as home chalk LY and 3-8 in role since 2012, also 1-5 laying 20 or more past two seasons. Muschamp 4-13-1 vs. line last 18 on board. But Paul Petrino only 3-9 vs. line in his Idaho debut LY and 2-6 as DD dog (2-5 getting 20 or more). Slight to Idaho based on extended Florida/Muschamp woes.

FRESNO STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Sarkisian SC debut. Also rematch of Las Vegas Bowl won by Trojans 45-20. Note Sarkisian was 4-1 laying 20 or more with Washington past two years and Huskies were 8-4 as home chalk past three seasons. But SC only 11-19 laying DD since 2009 and 4-9 laying 20 or more. DeRuyter 7-3-1 vs. line as visitor since 2012 through Fresno just 4-9-1 vs. line last 14 on board. Fresno 18-10 since 2004 as visiting dog, extending to the Pat Hill years. Fresno, based on extended trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...USM 6-18 vs. line post-Fedora, 5-10 as DD dog, 3-10 as visiting dog, 2-6 non-C-USA. Bad. Dan Mullen covered last 5 in 2013 and 9 of last 12 a year ago. MSU 7-3 as Starkville chalk since 2012, 12-6 since 2010, and 2-1 laying 20 or more since 2012. MSU, based on USM woes.

WASHINGTON at HAWAII...Petersen UW debut. Petersen 2-2 SU and vs. line his last four at Aloha Stadium with Boise Broncos (including 2007 Hawaii Bowl) vs. ECU). Petersen was 22-9 as visiting chalk with Boise the past six seasons. Norm Chow 10-6 vs. line last 16 since late in 2012 season and covered 4 of 5 as DD dog LY. Slight to Hawaii, based on recent trends.

FLORIDA STATE vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington)...FSU 11-2-1 vs. line LY, 6-1-1 laying DD. Jimbo, however, had not been an overwhelming spread winner prior to 2013. Jimbo is 13-6 vs. line against non-ACC foes, however. OSU hasn't been a DD dog since 2008 but is just 5-7 vs. line away from Stillwater the past two seasons. Gundy 25-14 vs. line the past three years. FSU, based on recent trends.

NORTH TEXAS at TEXAS...Strong Texas debut. At 'Ville note that his teams were only 5-13-1 as DD chalk. Mack was only 11-16 vs. line in Austin in his last five years as Horns coach. Texas also just one cover last five openers. McCarney 5-1 getting 20 or more since 2011, and Mean Green 11-3 last 14 on board. UNT, based on team trends.

UTEP at NEW MEXICO...Bob Davie 4-1 as home chalk the past two seasons with Lobos and Davie 3-1 vs. line at home vs. non-MW that span. UTEP awful 2-10 vs. line LY in Kugler debut and 0-6 as road dog in 2013. New Mexico, based on UTEP negatives.

LSU vs. WISCONSIN (at Houston)...Wiscy 9-4-1 as dog since 2009 and Gary Andersen 9-1 last 10 as dog with Badgers & Utah State. Andersen 20-6 vs. line since 2012 at USU & Wiscy. Les Miles 2-6 as chalk away from Baton Rouge the past two seasons. Wisconsin, based on Gary Andersen marks.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's SEC Action

August 29, 2014


WISCONSIN BADGERS vs. LSU TIGERS
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: LSU -5.5 & 50

The marquee non-conference Week 1 college football game takes place at NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday night as No. 13 Wisconsin takes on No. 14 LSU.

The staple of the Badgers the past few seasons has been their rushing game, and in Gary Andersen's first year as head coach in 2013, that trend continued. The Badgers ranked eighth in the country in rushing (283.8 YPG), and once again have the makings of one of the best ground games in the nation. Melvin Gordon (1,609 rush yards, 7.8 YPC, 12 TD) is one of the elite running backs in the country, and last year, he was splitting carries with James White, who rushed for 1,444 yards himself.

With White gone, a 2,000-yard season is a definite possibility. However, if the Badgers (9-3 ATS, 8-5 UNDER) are going to contend for a Big Ten title, they will have to get much stronger play in the passing game. Junior Tanner McEvoy, who played receiver and safety for the Badgers last season, will get the nod here. Joel Stave (2,294 pass yds, 22 TD, 13 INT) was the starter last season, but was inconsistent at times and allowed the defenses to focus on the running game. At 6-foot-6, 222 pounds, McEvoy is a prototypical quarterback who has a strong arm. The ability to throw it deep will play a huge role this season, as the play-action fake could open things up even more for a rushing game that has four starters back on the offensive line.

Unlike the Badgers, the Tigers are bringing in a lot of young players on the offense, but there is a ton of talent. All of the talk in Baton Rouge this offseason has been about incoming freshman RB Leonard Fournette, who is already being heralded as the best player ever from the state of Louisiana, even before he plays a game at LSU. At 6-foot-1, 224 pounds, Fournette is a rare combination of size and speed for the running back position. The ground game of the Tigers (5-7 ATS, 8-4 OVER) will be key as the team has very little experience at the quarterback position. Sophomore QB Anthony Jennings and freshman QB Brandon Harris are both players with a lot of talent, but have very little experience. Both teams are going to rely on the rushing game, while also playing terrific defense. The Badgers benefit from underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first two weeks of the year coming off a bowl season and two straight defeats going 34-10 ATS (77%) since 1992, but the Tigers are 6-0 ATS on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in this same timeframe. Neither team has any significant injuries, but LSU will be without suspended S Jalen Mills.

Wisconsin is going to heavily rely on Gordon in the ground game, because of a new quarterback and a team that is missing its top four receivers from last season. Sophomore WR Alex Erickson (nine catches, 127 yards) has some potential to be a very good player, but it is still yet to be known if he is ready to be a No. 1 receiver on a conference championship contender. The passing game ranked 96th in the country last season (197.1 yards), and that was with much more experienced receivers. McEvoy is an intriguing prospect because of his size and the ability to throw the deep ball, but he will be tested on Saturday night as the Tigers could put eight, or even nine men in the box. The defense of the Badgers was very good last year, (6th in FBS in points allowed, 16.3 PPG) and will be counted upon to carry the team, especially early. Marcus Trotter (23 tackles) did not see the field a lot last season, but he will be taking over the middle linebacker spot for Chris Borland, who is currently with the San Francisco 49ers. The secondary should be a strength of the team, with three starters coming back. Safety Michael Caputo (63 tackles) is the leading returner on the defense, and brings that nasty mentality you want to see from the safety position. In this game, he may be playing in the box a lot more than usual, as the LSU Tigers do not figure to be throwing the ball down field a ton.

Last season, the Tigers were blessed to have Zac Mettenberger at the quarterback position, as he had one of the biggest arms in all of college football. The Tigers averaged 35.8 PPG on offense last year (26th in FBS), while finishing 29th in rushing (202.3 YPG). While Fournette has gotten all the talk, senior RB Terrence Magee (759 rush yards, 9 TD) will also get a lot of carries as well. In Les Miles’ tenure at LSU, his best teams have been able to use two or three different running backs to get the job done. This will be especially important this season, as the Tigers are in the same boat as the Badgers, losing some serious receiving talent. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry were one of the best receiving duos in all of the country last season.

Travin Dural (seven catches, 145 yards, 2 TD) is the top guy returning. The sophomore is 6-foot-2, and has many of the same talents that Landry and Beckham have. There are a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, but if the Tigers are going to make some noise this year, it will be because of their defense. The unit ranked 21st in the country last season, allowing 22.0 PPG. The back seven has the chance to be as good as any in the country, but the defensive line is where the question marks remain. Jermauria Rasco (56 tackles and four sacks) is a talented player returning from a defense that ranked third in the SEC against the run, but this unit will need to be strong. Tre’Davious White (55 tackles, 2 INT) and Rashard Robinson (16 tackles, 1 INT) have a chance to be the best secondary duo in the country. LSU has been known as the DBU in recent years with Patrick Peterson and Morris Claiborne making it to the next level, but this duo has a chance to be just as special.

CLEMSON TIGERS at GEORGIA BULLDOGS
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total Georgia -7.5 & 54.5

For the second consecutive year, No. 16 Clemson and No. 12 Georgia will meet for their season opener when they do battle at Sanford Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Clemson was tremendous last year with an 11-2 record, but could not beat out Florida State for the first spot in the division. The ACC was a fairly weak conference besides FSU and Duke, so their performance does not stand out quite as much, and the team lost the bulk of their key offensive players with QB Tajh Boyd and WRs Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant all heading to the NFL. The program has been very successful lately with double-digit wins in each of the past three seasons, but with the losses of all this offensive talent, Clemson is supposed to take a step back this season. On the flip side, Georgia played well below expectations last year as they came into the season ranked fifth in the nation and finished the year 8-5 overall (5-3 in the SEC). A loss to Clemson to start of the season really got things off on the wrong foot, as the team was defeated 38-35 as a 1.5-point favorite on the road.

Georgia is yet another team that lost a longtime starter from their program with four-year starter QB Aaron Murray graduating and being drafted in the fifth round of the NFL draft. Picking up his slack will be a tough task as he put together four consecutive seasons with 3,000+ yards and at least 24 touchdowns. As mentioned previously, the Tigers won the last meeting between these two teams and that was their only victory when facing the Bulldogs since 1992 as they were 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) previously. As far as trends are concerned, Clemson is 27-13 ATS (68%) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 while the Bulldogs are an impressive 22-9 ATS (71%) against ACC opponents in that same timeframe.

With the losses of their signal caller and top two receivers, it is tough to imagine that the Tigers will be able to replicate what was a great offensive season last year in which they ranked eighth in scoring (40.2 PPG) and 10th in total offense (507.7 YPG). With Boyd out of the picture, it will be up to QB Cole Stoudt to pick up the slack. In three seasons as a backup, he is 86-for-119 (72%) for 742 yards (6.2 YPA) with 8 TD and only 1 INT. He threw double-digit attempts just twice last year, but should be able to catch on quick with the offense after being with the team for three full seasons now. Aiding him in the backfield will be HB D.J. Howard who is a senior that had 57 attempts in 2013, where he gained a meager 213 yards (3.7 YPC) with two touchdowns. He was an asset in the passing game as well with eight catches for 123 yards (15.4 YPC) and a touchdown. WR Adam Humphries is the best ball catcher coming back this year and he totaled 483 yards on 41 catches (11.8 avg.) while scoring two touchdowns; both of which came in the same contest at Syracuse. DE Vic Beasley (13 sacks, 40 tackles) is expected to be a very high pick in next year’s NFL Draft and he hopes to help the team improve on a defense that was solid last year, allowing opponents to score 22.2 PPG (24th in FBS) while keeping the other team’s quarterbacks yardage down to 201.0 YPG (16th in nation).

Georgia’s subpar 2013 season was not due to a lack of offense as the club scored 36.7 PPG (21st in the nation) and passed for a very solid 314.2 YPG (15th in FBS). Much of this production came at the hands of standout QB Aaron Murray who is no longer part of the team after four tremendous seasons. The torch will be passed to QB Hutson Mason who did well last year as Murray’s backup, throwing for 968 yards (8.8 YPA) with 5 TD and 3 INT. His transition into the role as starter should be much smoother knowing that HB Todd Gurley is still in the mix. The dynamic player ran for 989 yards (6.0 YPC) with 10 TD last year while adding 441 receiving yards (11.9 avg.) and 6 TD through the air. His best game coincidentally enough came in the season opener against Clemson when he popped off for 154 yards on just 12 carries (12.8 YPC) and added two touchdowns in the loss, including a 75-yard TD scamper. The receiving part of his game occurred late in the season, as 26 of his 37 receptions came in the final four games; meaning Gurley should have a more prominent role in the passing game in 2014.

The teams’ top two receivers, Chris Conley (651 rec. yds, 4 TD) and Michael Bennett (538 rec. yds, 4 TD), are both back with the team and should provide more solid experience for Mason in the passing game. Where the program faltered most in 2013 was on the defensive side of the ball. The Bulldogs allowed opponents to score 29.0 PPG against them (79th in nation), but there are many positives going into this year as the core of ILB Ramik Wilson (133 tackles, 4 sacks) and OLB Jordan Jenkins (5 sacks, 45 tackles) make their cases to be early picks in next year’s draft.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Tip Sheet

August 28, 2014


**Clemson at Georgia**

-- As of late Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Georgia listed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 55. Gamblers can back the Tigers on the money line for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250). The number for the side opened at 8.5, while the 'over/under' started at 58 before steadily coming down.

-- Georgia's 2013 season was marred by injuries and ended with a disappointing 24-19 loss to Nebraska at the Gator Bowl. The Bulldogs finished 8-5 straight up and they were horrible for our purposes, finished with an abysmal 3-9-1 spread record. Four of UGA's losses were one-possession games, and three of its defeats were gut-wrenching heartbreakers.

-- The first back-breaking setback came at Clemson in the opener. The Tigers won a 38-35 decision and UGA failed to convert a short field goal in the fourth quarter when the holder couldn't handle a snap. When Mark Richt's team went to Nashville, it let a lead get away at crunch time in a 31-27 loss to Vanderbilt. On the Plains in November, a terrific second-half comeback was wasted when Auburn hit a bomb for a touchdown on a fourth-and-long play after a pair of UGA defenders deflected the pass directly into the hands of a streaking wide receiver.

-- Senior QB Hutson Mason finally gets his chance as the starter after backing up the departed Aaron Murray, who threw for a school-record 13,166 career passing yards. When Murray tore his ACL in a home win over Kentucky in late November, Mason got a pair of starting assignments. In his first on The Flats, UGA trailed Georgia Tech by 13 at intermission before Mason orchestrated a rally. He threw for 299 yards and a pair of TDs in a 41-34 double-overtime victory. In the loss to Nebraska, Mason threw for 320 yards but a third-quarter interception gave the Cornhuskers a short field and proved to be costly.

-- UGA returns six starters on offense and eight on defense. RB Todd Gurley is healthy after battling a nagging ankle injury that forced him to miss three full games and a good chunk of a win over LSU. Nevertheless, Gurley still ran for 989 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The Dawgs have the country's best 1-2 combo of RBs now that Keith Marshall is also healthy. Marshall went down with a torn ACL in a win at Tennessee in early October. Marshall ran for 759 yards (6.5 YPC) as a true freshman in 2012.

-- UGA senior WR Malcolm Mitchell saw his 2013 campaign end in the opener at Clemson when he was injured in an end-zone celebration. Bad luck hit Mitchell again when he got hurt at the first practice in August. The knee injury has him listed as 'doubtful' on Saturday. Also, WR Justin Scott-Wesley is suspended.

-- Clemson returns five starters on offense and seven on defense from a team that went 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS. The defection on offense are crucial, though. The Tigers must replace the school's all-time leader in passing yards (Tajh Boyd) and receiving yards (Sammy Watkins). Boyd blew up Charlie Whitehurst's career numbers early in his senior year in which he posted a 34/11 TD-INT ratio. The production of Watkins (101 catches, 1,464 yards and 12 TDs in 2013) will be impossible to replace.

-- Clemson's only losses last season came to top-five teams (vs. FSU and at South Carolina), but we should note that its only regular-season victory over a ranked foe came in the opener vs. UGA. With that said, the Tigers probably had their best performance in their last time out when they captured a 40-35 win over Ohio State as 2.5-point underdogs at the Orange Bowl.

-- Senior QB Cole Stoudt takes over as the starter under center. He has a stellar 8/1 TD-INT ratio but has never really seen meaningful playing time. In 2013, Stoudt completed 47-of-59 throws (79.7%) for 415 yards and five TDs without being intercepted. True freshman Deshaun Watson, the prize of Clemson's 2014 recruiting class, could see some playing time.

-- Dabo Swinney probably has the best combo of coordinators in the country with OC Chad Morris and DC Brent Venables. The latter has done a tremendous job in his two years since coming to Clemson after 13 seasons at Oklahoma, and his 'D' in 2014 should be the Tigers' best in at least a decade. This unit is led by DE Vic Beasley, who earned first-team All-American honors as a junior by registering 13 sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 12 QB hurries.

-- As a road underdog during Swinney's tenure, Clemson owns a 6-3 spread record.

-- Since 2004, UGA has struggled as a home favorite with a 24-32-2 ATS ledger.

--ESPN will have the broadcast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Florida State vs. Oklahoma State**

-- As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had FSU listed as an 18-point favorite with a total of 63.5. Bettors can take the Cowboys to win outright for a +650 payout (risk $100 to win $650).

-- FSU is set to defend the school's third national title when it makes its first appearance at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. The Seminoles have won 16 in a row and haven't tasted defeat since Florida won by a 37-27 count in Tallahassee in late November of 2012.

-- Jameis Winston led FSU to a 14-0 SU record and an 11-2-1 ATS mark. He shredded defenses for 4,057 passing yards with a 40/10 TD-INT ratio. Winston also ran for four scores.

-- Jimbo Fisher's team brings back seven starters on offense and six on defense. The defense lost five of its top six tacklers, while the offense lost leading rusher Devonta Freeman (14 rushing TDs) and WRs Kelvin Benjamin (15 TD catches) and Kenny Shaw (54 receptions, 933 yards & six TDs).

-- Despite the departures of Benjamin and Shaw, Winston has a pair of All-American candidates to target in WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O'Leary. Green had a team-high 76 receptions for 1,128 yards and nine TDs last season, while O'Leary hauled in 33 catches for 557 yards and seven TDs.

-- FSU went 10-2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite last season.

-- Oklahoma State has lost a lot of talent from a 2013 squad that finished 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS. The Cowboys lost by nine at West Virginia, by nine against Oklahoma and by 10 against Missouri at the Cotton Bowl. However, all three of those games were much closer than the final score indicated and OSU was in position to win all three of those contests midway through the fourth quarter.

-- Mike Gundy's team returns just eight total starters (four on each side of the ball). Junior QB J.W. Walsh is the starting QB after Clint Chelf departed. Walsh has eight career starts and a 22/8 career TD-INT ratio. Chelf has last year's leading rusher Desmond Roland back in the mix. Roland ran for 811 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 4.6 YPC. Gundy will have a new weapon at his disposal in prize recruit Tyreek Hill, a world-class sprinter who will play both WR and RB and might even get touches out of a Wildcat-type formation. OSU fans can look for Hill to make a lot of explosive plays, and the Cowboys will need several Saturday night if they're thinking upset.

-- Oklahoma State lost eight of its top nine tacklers from one of its best defenses during Gundy's tenure. The unit allowed only 21.6 PPG but must replace a slew of key players.

-- This is the richest underdog spot for Oklahoma State since a 36-10 loss at Texas as an 18-point 'dog way back in 2006.

-- Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

**Wisconsin vs. LSU**

-- This meeting of SEC and Big Ten powers will take place in Houston. Then in 2015, LSU will travel to Lambeau Field in Green Bay to face Wisconsin.

-- As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had LSU installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 50 for 'over/under' wagers. The Tigers are -200 on the money line, while the Badgers are +170 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $170).

-- Les Miles's team went 10-3 SU and 6-7 ATS in 2013. The Tigers dropped a pair of heartbreakers on the road at Georgia (44-41) and at Ole Miss (27-24). They closed the season with a 21-14 non-covering win over Iowa as 7.5-point 'chalk' at the Outback Bowl.

-- LSU returns five starters on offense and seven on defense. It lost its top four offensive players to the NFL Draft, including QB Zach Mettenberger, RB Jeremy Hill, WR Jarvis Landry and WR Odell Beckham Jr. Nevertheless, the Tigers have a solid offensive line and an outstanding trio of RBs. Despite backing up Hill, Terrence Magee rushed for 626 yards and eight TDs while averaging 7.3 YPC. Kenny Hilliard, who was the MVP of the 2011 SEC Championship Game as a freshman, had seven rushing scores last season and averaged 4.6 YPC. Miles also landed the nation's No. 1 RB in the 2014 class, Leonard Fournette. If Fournette is 'as advertised,' LSU fans can count on an eighth double-digit win season in the 10th year of Miles's tenure.

-- LSU is expected to play both of its QBs against Wisconsin. Anthony Jennings got one start last season against Iowa, but he didn't look sharp in the winning effort. To his credit, however, Jennings replaced an injured Mettenberger in a tie game and threw a game-winning TD pass to beat Arkansas in the regular-season finale. Brandon Harris was more impressive in the spring game, though, as Jennings threw a pair of pick-sixes.

-- Wisconsin brings back seven starters on offense and three on defense from a team that went 9-4 both SU and ATS. The Badgers lost three one-possession games last season and dropped a 34-24 decision to South Carolina at the Capital One Bowl. One of those defeats, a 32-30 setback at Arizona State, can be blamed on Gary Andersen, who made a knucklehead clock-management decision that prevented his team from being able to attempt a short field goal for the win. They basically lost their entire front seven, including All-American LB Chris Borland, so inexperience on defense is a concern.

-- Wisconsin's Joel Stave started all 13 games at QB last year and six as a redshirt freshman in 2012. But Andersen named Tanner McEvoy as the starter vs. LSU last week. McEvoy provides more of a scrambling dynamic, but he played safety for the Badgers last season. Andersen clearly wants a more mobile QB in the mold of his signal caller Chuckie Keeton at Utah St.

-- The catalyst for UW is junior RB Melvin Gordon, who is a legit Heisman candidate. Gordon rushed for 1,609 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 7.8 YPC in 2013. Those numbers earned the speedster third-team All-American honors. Gordon will run behind an offensive line that's ranked tops in the Big Ten by Phil Steele.

-- UW lost its top four pass catchers, including perennial All Big Ten selection Jared Abbrederis.

--ESPN will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

Week 1 of the college football season has been taking action for while now. Depending on where you bet – online or in Nevada – some of Saturday’s games have been on the board since the spring.

We take a look at some of the biggest line moves on the college football board heading into the weekend, and get the inside scoop on the action from Jay Rood, president of race and sports at MGM in Las Vegas, and Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag:

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Central Florida Knights (in Dublin) – Open: +1, Move: -2

This overseas affair will have hardcore college cappers up early Saturday morning, with kickoff in Ireland scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET – 5:30 a.m. in Las Vegas. Books opened this game as big as PSU -1, but it looks like the departure of QB Blake Bortles isn’t scaring money away from UCF.

“On August 12, we got a sharp play on UCF +1,” says Perry. “However, 66 percent of the cash and 69 percent of bets are on Penn State.”

UCLA Bruins at Virginia Cavaliers – Open: +23, Move: +20.5

Action on the Bruins has pushed this spread past the key number of 21 at some markets, tempting bettors to buy back the Cavaliers. However, most spots are dealing UCLA -21 and are waiting for more money to show once the public has its say.

“We’ve taken some small bets on the dog,” says Rood. “UCLA has been a very popular bet for the futures book but dog is the play for the sharps in this one. The Bruins are seeing all the action, on straight bets and parlays. Like, 20/1 parlay action on UCLA.”

Western Michigan Broncos at Purdue Boilermakers – Open: -13, Move: -10

This isn’t the sexiest game on the Week 1 slate, however, books have seen sharps snatch up WMU with both hands, pushing this spread to the key number of 10. According to Perry, sharp money took the Broncos +13 – forcing the move – but it’s been all money on Purdue since, with 75 percent of bets looking to “Boiler Up!”

“I’ve seen a couple guys in the newspapers, the talking heads and handicappers, touting Purdue in this game,” says Rood. “It’s odd that those haven’t come in. We took some early limit plays on the dog in this ($5,000). The play for a lot of those guys (wiseguys) is Purdue but they haven’t shown up yet.”

Boston College Eagles at UMass Minutemen – Open: +14.5, Move: +17.5

This Massachusetts matchup has moved an entire field goal with nothing but Boston College money. Both sharps and public bettors are taking the Eagles, according to bookmakers.

“We’ll need the Minutemen to show up. This (line) won’t slow down,” says Rood. “We have nothing on UMass and any buyback will come at +17.5, if they want to wait and try to catch a middle.”

Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers – Open: -22.5, Move: -18

One of the marquee matchups of Week 1 has seen a lot of line juggling since opening. Wiseguys are going against Auburn, expecting a drop-off from the Tigers after their incredible 2013. Books online and in Nevada have seen early sharp money on the Razorbacks but do expect the public to side with the favorite Saturday.

“Sharp plays came in on Arkansas +22.5 back on August 1 at +21.5 the next day,” says Perry. “Seventy-three percent of the cash is on Arkansas and 65 percent of bets are on Hogs.”

Washington Huskies at Hawaii Warriors – Open: +15, Move: +17.5

This 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff is the last game on the board Saturday, or as Rood calls it “The get even or get even deep game”. It’s been all money on Washington heading into the weekend and with this being the final game, it will be a big decider for sportsbooks when it comes to an overall win or loss in the first Saturday of the season.

“The new Washington coach (Chris Petersen) is kind of known for not pulling his horses too early, so this could get ugly if Hawaii can’t put up a fight,” says Rood. “People are going to play this game either way, and you’ve got to imagine they’re all going to fall on Washington.”

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, August 28

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Game of the Day: Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Florida State Seminoles vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (+18, 63)

Florida State's title defense begins with a stern test Saturday, as the national champion Seminoles open against Oklahoma State in Dallas. The Seminoles return 15 starters from last year's championship squad, including reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston at quarterback, but they aren't easing into the defense of their crown. The Cowboys have won six straight season openers and have knocked off four top-10 foes under coach Mike Gundy, though they've never beaten a No. 1 team.

Florida State's 16-game winning streak dating to the 2012 season is one shy of the school record set from 1999-2000. The Seminoles' retooled defense gets a good early test against an Oklahoma State team that has been one of the nation's most prolific on offense during Gundy's tenture. "They are very diverse, they are very athletic, and they are very well-coached," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher told reporters. "They keep you off-balanced, and they are not scored to do things. They are very aggressive with how they play."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Florida State -17.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Seminoles opened as 17.5-point road favorites and now sit at -18. The total has held steady at 63.

INJURY REPORT: Florida State: LB Delvin Purifoy - out for season (ankle). Oklahoma State: N//A.

POWER RANKINGS: Florida State (-24) - Oklahoma State (-10.5) + home field (-3) = Oklahoma State +10.5

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (14-0, 11-3 ATS): The Seminoles return a number of key players from an offense that has put up 30 or more points in 15 straight games, but the receiving corps is thin on experience with starting receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw gone after combining for 108 receptions and 21 touchdowns a year ago. New defensive coordinator Charles Kelly inherits a unit that returns six starters and is especially strong against the pass, with returners having combined for 16 interceptions in 2013. Like they did a year ago, the Seminoles figure to have an advantage on special teams with the return of record-breaking kicker Roberto Aguayo and return specialist Kermit Whitfield.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (10-3, 8-5 ATS): The Cowboys appear to be headed for a rebuilding year, as they're picked to finish fifth in the Big 12 and don't return much star power. Only six players on the roster have more than 10 career starts, and only one — receiver Jhajuan Seales — plays an offensive skill position. Quarterback J.W. Walsh isn't on that list — he has started only eight games — but could be poised for a breakout year after passing for 22 touchdowns and rushing for 10 while splitting time under center the past two seasons.

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 10-4 in the Seminoles last 14 games overall.
* Over is 7-2 in the Cowboys last nine non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: Just over 53 percent of the wagers are on Oklahoma State at +18. Almost 70 percent of wagers are on the over at 63.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Saturday's action
Top 13 games
Central Florida (+4.5) won 34-31 at Penn State LY, running ball for 219 yards; total yardage was 507-455, but UCF has new QB, 3 new starters on OL. Lions have new HC in former Vandy mentor Franklin. Penn State lost 4 starters on OL; they're 2-4 in last six neutral field games; its soph QB had 12 starts LY. UCF covered four of last six on neutral field. This game is being played in Ireland, for some reason.

Ohio State lost senior QB Miller for season, a damaging blow; they beat Navy 31-27 (-22) in last meeting five years ago. Buckeyes are 5-8-1 vs spread in last 14 games as road favorite; they lost 4 starters on OL from LY. Middies have 15 starters back and junior QB with 21 starts- they're 20-9 as an underdog under coach Niumatololo. Buckeyes are in trouble at QB, experience-wise- they had 12 days to prep new QB to start.

UCLA has 17 starters back, a QB with 27 starts, an NFL HC and is 5-2 in last seven tries as road favorites; they covered seven of last eight out of conference games. Virginia is 4-8-1 in last 13 games as home dog; they have 3 starters back on OL, soph QB with 7 starts, are just 3-9-1 in last 13 non-ACC games. Long road trip for Bruins, who don't play Texas for two weeks, shouldn't be looking past Cavaliers.

Troy won four of last five games with UAB, with three of last four won by 3 or less points; Trojans are 2-3 in last five visits here, with underdog 3-2 vs spread in those games. Blazers have new coach, new QB, but also has 15 oiher starters back- they're 4-12 vs spread in last 16 games when favored. Troy has new QB, 6 starters back on both sides of ball- they are 5-2-1 in last 8 games as dogs. Average total last four series games, 61.8.

Northwestern (-5.5) won 44-30 at Berkeley in LY's opener, running ball for 209 yards. Wildcats were 5-0 as home favorites LY, after being 5-18 as HFs under Fitzgerald before that. NW has all five starters back on OL, but has senior QB with only 3 career starts. Cal has 4 starters back on OL; they're 2-7 in last nine games as road dogs. Bears have a soph QB with 12 starts- they had 460 passing yards in LY's game.

Notre Dame gets mobile QB Golson back after he was suspended LY; he led Irish to national title game in 2012. Irish have 3 starters back on OL, are 8-11-3 as home favorites under Kelly, 27-48 overall when favored in last decade. Rice covered six of last seven games as road underdog- they have 3 starters back on OL, junior QB is making only 2nd start. Notre Dame plays Michigan next week, figure to hold back a little here.

Alabama didn't name #1 QB this week; they've got three starters back on OL. Tide is 17-11 as road favorites under Saban, covering eight of last 10 on neutral fields, but are just 6-8 vs spread out of SEC last three seasons. West Virginia is 7-7 as underdogs under Holgorsen; they've got senior QB (9 starts) but only two starters back on OL. WVa is 8-16 vs spread in last 24 non-conference games.

Arkansas won four of last six games with Auburn; underdogs are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 series games, 5-2 in last seven here, with Hogs winning three of last four visits here. Marshalll will play but won't start at QB for Tigers after weed bust this spring. Auburn has 4 starters back on OL, is 22-12 vs spread in SEC last four years. Arkansas is 5-12 vs spread in last 17 games as underdog, 3-8 in last 11 games as a road dog.

Clemson (+2.5) beat Georgia 38-35 LY, first renewal since '03 of an old intense rivalry; Dawgs had 545-467 yardage edge LY, 222-197 running ball. Both sides have new QB; Georgia's QB is senior who made couple starts LY, including bowl loss to Nebraska. Dawgs are 5-8 as favorite at home since '12, 10-15 in non-league tilts since '09. Tigers are 6-3 as road underdogs under Swinney, 14-10 vs spread overall on foreign soil.

Kent State won four of last five games with Ohio U; underdogs covered three of last four. Bobcats lost last two visits here, both by an identical 28-6 score. Ohio is 1-6 as road underdogs since 2011; they've got a new QB but have 3 starters back on OL. Kent has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they're 10-6 as home favorites since '09, 1-1 under Haynes, in his first year at Kent.

Purdue (-1.5) beat Western Michigan 37-32 in last meeting three years ago; Boilermakers have soph QB (7 starts), three new starters on OL, no senior starters on OL but are 5-4 in last nine tries as home favorite- they have 15 starters back overall. Western was 1-11 in Fleck's first year as HC; they're 8-6 as roads underdogs since '11. Broncos could go with a freshman QB, as new coaches usually prefer their own recruits.

Florida State returns Heisman winner Winston at QB, has four starters back on OL (5 senior starters) and has covered 12 of last 15 games on a neutral field. Seminoles are 13-11 vs spread away from home with Fisher as coach. Oklahoma State has junior QB (8 starts) but lost 3 starters on OL; they're 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as underdogs. OSU lost 7 starters on both sides of ball from last year.

LSU will use two QBs, but Jennings played in Outback Bowl win over Iowa LY; Tigers have 4 starters back on OL, are 7-6 in last 13 games as road favorites, 11-17 vs spread in last 28 non-SEC games. Wisconsin will use more mobile QB rather than experienced (19 starts) returning starter Stave. Badgers covered five of last seven games as underdogs, are 8-5-1 vs spread in last 14 games on neutral fields.

Notes on other Saturday games
-- Michigan is 11-7 as home favorites under Hoke, 6-3 in its last nine as a double digit favorite.
-- NC State is 11-4 as home favorites since 2010, but 5-9 in last 14 non-league games.
-- Florida Atlantic fired Bo Pelini’s brother as HC LY. You think Nebraska will run it up, if they can.
-- Boston College is 5-11 in last 16 non-league games, 3-13 as road favorite since 2006.

-- Marshall is 1-8-1 in its last ten games as a road favorite.
-- Louisiana Tech covered only four of last 18 games. Oklahoma covered nine of last 12 out of conference.
-- Florida is just 3-8 as a home favorite the last two seasons.
-- USC is 10-6 in last 16 games as a home favorite; they beat Fresno State 45-20 in Las Vegas Bowl last December.

-- Southern Miss is 6-18 vs spread since Fedora bolted for Chapel Hill; they’re 3-10 in last 13 tries as a road dog.
-- North Texas covered 11 of last 14 games; this is their Super Bowl, playing the Longhorns. First game at Texas for Charlie Strong, who has tossed seven players already.
-- New Mexico covered four of last five games as a home favorite

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, August 30

Wind, chance of storms at this stadium Saturday

The Big House could be in store for some less-than-ideal weather conditions Saturday.

The Michigan Wolverines host the Appalachian State Mountaineers from Michigan Stadium and forecasts are calling for a 56 percent possibility of thunderstorms.

Furthermore, wind could play a factor as gusts are expected to hover around 12-to-15 mph, blowing toward the north endzone.

The Wolverines are currently 34-point home favorites for the matchup. The total is 54.5.


Over a hot bet when this school plays MAC teams

The Over is 4-0 in the last four games when the Purdue Boilermakers take on teams from the Mid-American Conference.

The Boilermakers will host the Western Michigan Broncos from Ross-Ade Stadium Saturday afternoon.

Purdue and the MAC's Northern Illinois Huskies played over the closing total of 59.5 last year with the Huskies prevailing 55-24.

The LV Superbook has tabbed the game with a total of 53.


This opening number too high for totals bettors

Despite being the top Over play last season, the opening number appears to be simply too high for the Troy Trojans' first game of the season versus UAB.

Offshore books posted a total of 67 to start with, but that has been in free-fall mode ever since, with most shops dealing a 63, the same number the LV Superbook opened with earlier this morning.

The Trojans were a spectacular 11-1 Over/Under last season, including a 34-31 victory over the Blazers in Week 1 last year. The 64 points finished over the closing total of 62.5.


Bruins cashing tickets outside of conference

The UCLA Bruins, lead by Heisman-hopeful Brett Hundley, open the season on the other side of the country Saturday, but they more prove to fruitful for bettors.

The Bruins are 4-0 against the spread in their last four non-conference games and are currently 20-point road faves at the Virginia Cavaliers of the ACC Saturday.

Bruins backers will hope for a start the new season reminiscent of last season, when UCLA began the season 5-0 ATS in their opening five games.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Night Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------2 - 0

Double Plays--------------------------0 - 1

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 1

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 1

Overall Rated Plays

5 - 2......................................*****

1 - 1.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

0 - 1 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

0 - 1 ....................................LIGHTS OUT


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS

NCAAF Contest - Records by Date

CNOTES

Member Since: Nov 2004

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/29/14 5-*7-*0 41.67% -*1350 Detail

08/28/14 7-*5-*0 58.33% +*750 Detail

Totals 12-*12-*0 50.00% -*600

Saturday, August 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Penn State 10 3rd 10:44 Central Florida -2 500
Central Florida 3


Georgia Southern - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina State -20.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
North Carolina State -


Boston College - 3:00 PM ET Boston College -17 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Massachusetts -


Florida Atlantic - 3:30 PM ET Nebraska -21.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Nebraska -


Marshall - 3:30 PM ET Marshall -24 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Miami (Ohio) -


Louisiana Tech - 7:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech +35 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Oklahoma -


North Texas - 8:00 PM ET North Texas +26 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Texas -


Washington - 10:30 PM ET Hawaii +17 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Hawaii

[StarDust Bum]

GAMES UP TO 12:30 PACIFIC TIME


Saturday, August 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Troy - 12:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham -2.5 500 *****
Alabama-Birmingham -

Appalachian State - 12:00 PM ET Michigan -34 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Michigan -

Western Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Purdue -8.5 500 *****
Purdue -

UCLA - 12:00 PM ET Virginia +20 500 *****
Virginia -

Ohio State - 12:00 PM ET Navy +14.5 500 *****
Navy -

California - 3:30 PM ET California +10 500 *****
Northwestern -

Rice - 3:30 PM ET Notre Dame -20.5 500 *****
Notre Dame -

West Virginia - 3:30 PM ET Alabama -26 500 *****
Alabama -

[StarDust Bum]

The Rest of todays games:


Clemson - 5:30 PM ET Clemson +10.5 500 *****
Georgia -

Ohio - 6:00 PM ET Kent State -3 500
Kent State -

Elon University - 6:00 PM ET Duke -38 500
Duke -

Liberty - 6:00 PM ET North Carolina -29 500 TRIPLE PLAY
North Carolina -

Morgan State - 6:00 PM ET Morgan State +16.5 500
Eastern Michigan -

Northern Arizona - 7:00 PM ET San Diego State -18.5 500 *****
San Diego State -

Western Carolina - 7:00 PM ET South Florida -26 500
South Florida -

Austin Peay - 7:00 PM ET Austin Peay +38.5 500
Memphis -

Southern - 7:00 PM ET Southern +35.5 500
UL Lafayette -

Arkansas-Pine Bluff - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas-Pine Bluff +29.5 500
Texas State -

Montana State - 7:00 PM ET Montana State +11 500
Arkansas State -

Bethune Cookman - 7:00 PM ET Bethune Cookman -3 500
Florida International -

Savannah State - 7:00 PM ET Savannah State +41 500 *****
Middle Tennessee -

New Hampshire - 7:00 PM ET Toledo -11 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Toledo -

Idaho - 7:00 PM ET Florida -37.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Florida -

Samford - 7:00 PM ET Samford +33.5 500
Texas Christian -

Central Arkansas - 7:00 PM ET Central Arkansas +32 500
Texas Tech -

Stephen F. Austin - 7:10 PM ET Stephen F. Austin +41.5 500
Kansas State -

Fresno State - 7:30 PM ET Fresno State +18.5 500 *****
Southern California -

Southern Mississippi - 7:30 PM ET Southern Mississippi +31 500
Mississippi State -

Texas El Paso - 8:00 PM ET Texas El Paso +8.5 500
New Mexico -

Florida State - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma State +19 500 *****
Oklahoma State -

North Carolina Central - 8:00 PM ET North Carolina Central +39.5 500
East Carolina -

Wisconsin - 9:00 PM ET Louisiana State -3.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Louisiana State -

South Dakota - 10:30 PM ET Oregon -52 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Oregon -

[StarDust Bum]

Team to Watch - Utah State

August 30, 2014


It was fair to expect some drop-off last year at Utah State (2013 SU 9-5, ATS 9-5) after program reconstruction wizard Gary Andersen left Logan to succeed Bret Bielema at Wisconsin. After all, 11-2 football seasons happened about as often in the Cache Valley as Jay-Z and Beyonce' stop by for a visit. And the Aggies were going to be upgrading their conference affiliation as they joined the Mountain West after a decade-long stint in the disintegrating WAC.

But no one expected the floor to collapse beneath the Utags, either, as there was some continuity between the regimes of 2012 & '13 thanks to new HC Matt Wells, promoted from offensive coordinator. Some of the Andersen staff, and almost all of the terminology, also remained from 2012. And the roster returned 15 starters from a Potato Bowl-winning side.

What no one, including new HC Wells, was expecting was for star QB Chuckie Keeton, who had generated some fringe Heisman Trophy chatter entering last season, to go down with a knee injury in early October, or for USU to start three different QBs during the season. So when the smoke finally cleared and the Utags had pipped favored Boise State to win the Mountain half of the loop and then upset one-time BCS contender Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl, there was not much discussion about what sort of hands the program was in, post-Andersen. Utag AD Scott Barnes (once upon a time a hoops PF for some of Boyd Grant's better Fresno State teams in the early '80s) was impressed enough with Wells' work to offer his coach a contract extension after the season.

Now, it's time to talk about an encore in 2014. Only this time Wells will have to proceed with less than half as many returning starters (just seven) as he had a year ago. Fortunately for Wells, the electric Keeton is back in the fold. Better yet, just in case Keeton goes down again, Wells has an experienced pilot in reserve in soph Darrell Garretson, who eventually took over the QB chores last season and helped the offense to five single season school records while winning 6 of 7 starts, saving a campaign that was teetering at 3-4 in mid-October.

Which also begs the question how Utah State could nab two such ringers at QB, when other schools west of the Rockies, including several in the higher-profile Pac-12, can't seem to find one capable QB.

But as long as Keeton is fully recovered from his knee injury (which also kept him out of spring drills), he remains the focal point on the attack end. As he should; prior to the knee injury vs. BYU, Chuckie had completed 136 of 198 throws for 1388 YP and 18 TDs, to go along with just two interceptions, after passing for 3373 yards and 27 TDs last and adding another 619 yards and 8 rush TDs during a full season of work in 2012. Just in case Keeton isn't ready, or goes down again, Garretson is available in the bullpen after passing for 1444 yards and 10 TDs in half-a-season's worth of work in 2013.

The offensive returning starter number (three) deceives further when realizing it also doesn't include RB Joe Hill, who was playing with the first string and had gained 252 yards and almost 5 ypc before going down with his own knee injury last September. Hill will be ready in the fall, although Wells and co-o.c.'s Kevin McGiven and Luke Wells are legitimately concerned about Hill's durability, as his 5'11, 190-lb. frame is not designed for heavy-duty work as have been some other recent featured Aggie runners, including muscle-bound Robert Turbin, now a member of the Super Bowl champ Seahawks. Wells also moved some of this better athletes to WR positions in spring, hoping to find a complement for highlight-reel JoJo Nelson, a 5'7, 151-lb. electron who caught 59 passes a year ago and was the only player in the country last season to record multiple TDs via rushing (three), receiving (two), and returns (two punt returns). The kicking game appears in good hands (or feet, we suppose) with sr. PK Nick Diaz, who nailed 17 of 23 FG attempts a year ago.

Where the returning starter angle might cause concern is along the OL, as only one regular (the deceivingly-named LT Kevin Whimpey) returns from 2013. Wells, however, was encouraged with what he saw in spring work. "Our guys are talented," said Wells of his new-look OL. "They're just youthful and inexperienced." Still, MW sources indicate that replacing key C Tyler Larsen (in the Miami Dolphins' camp this summer) could be a tall order.

The real legacy left behind in Logan by Andersen was a defensive monster that was his creation and passed on to new d.c. Todd Orlando a year ago. The Orlando version of the 3-4 "D" posted similar impressive numbers, including top ten national rankings in scoring (7th at 17.1 ppg) and rushing (8th at 107 ypg). The returning starter number (four) for this platoon deceives as well, with several holdovers having rotated in and out of the lineup a year ago.

Still, there are some potential areas of concern, including up front, where DE B.J. Larsen is the only returning starter on the line, and the secondary, which graduated four starters. The D-backs still have an upper-class look about them however, with three seniors in the projected starter mix, with FS Brian Suite the most familiar with live action. The strength of the platoon again figures to be an active LB corps featuring a pair of All-MW selections, OLB Kyler Fackwell and ILB Zach Vigil.

For our purposes, especially noteworthy about the Ags has been their pointspread prowess, with both Andersen and Wells, covering 20 of 27 chances the past two seasons. Being hidden in Cache County is apparently preventing the oddsmakers from placing too much of a premium on this notorious overachiever vs. the number.

The 2014 schedule is fairly intriguing, with an opening game at Tennessee, a rare visit to Logan by an ACC school (Wake Forest), and trips to Arkansas State and BYU. The Utags also trek to Colorado State and Boise in MW Mountain showdowns, but miss what figures to be the top three teams (Fresno, Nevada, and San Diego State) from the Western half of the loop. Anything less than another bowl bid would be a major letdown, and a repeat of last fall's Mountain Division title (which the Utags won in 2013, essentially without Keeton) would come as no surprise.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------5 - 6

Double Plays--------------------------3 - 1

Triple Plays---------------------------3 - 2

LIGHTS OUT.....................................2 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

10 - 8......................................*****

4 - 2.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

3 - 3 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 1 ....................................LIGHTS OUT

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Jake Peavy threw seven no-hit innings as the Giants won their fifth game in a row, 3-1 over Milwaukee.

-- Orioles acquired Kelly Johnson and Alejandro DeAza in separate deals, as they try and fortify their roster for the stretch run.

-- Miguel Cabrera left the nightcap of Detroit's twinbill with an ankle injury; not sure how serious it is, but the Tigers need Cabrera healthy the next four weeks.

-- Florida-Idaho game was postponed after one play due to lightning; long way for the Vandals to come and then not play. Wonder if they still got that paycheck?

-- Former Charlotte coach Bobby Lutz interviewed for the Charleston job; if they have half a brain, they hire Lutz-- he's a good coach.

-- Team USA beat Finland 114-55, covering the spread by over 20 points. Not sure why NBA teams let their guys play in this, but they do.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football weekend

13) LSU trailed Wisconsin 24-7 with 10:20 left in third quarter, before a successful fake punt led to a field goal that started a 21-0 run that gave the Bayou Bengals an unlikely 28-24 win over the Badgers in Houston Saturday night.

Wisconsin changed QBs this year because they wanted a more mobile QB, but the new QB was 8-24/50 passing and that ain't good enough to win at this level.

12) Florida State 37, Oklahoma State 31-- Somebody better teach Jimbo Fisher about game management; with 3:58 left, FSU scored to go up 36-24 and didn't go for two points to make it 38-24. At that point, 36-24 is the same as 37-24, so they had to go for two to protect against two late Oklahoma State TD's- OSU almost got the ball back down 37-31, which would've made for some nervous Seminoles.

11) Arizona kicker Casey Skowron was studnt manager of the woman's soccer team at Arizona, before he joined the football team-- he kicked three field goals in Friday's game, including a 49-yarder.

10) Texas A&M 52, South Carolina 28-- Kenny Hill was 44-60/511 in his first start as a college QB. Kevin Sumlin's teams score a lot of points.

9) Penn State 26, Central Florida 24-- People in Ireland saw a terrific game, with Lions kicking a 36-yard FG at the gun for the win. Penn State avenged last year's loss at home to the Golden Knights.

8) Ohio State 34, Navy 17-- Middies led 14-13 at half, but gave up a defensive TD early in third quarter. JT Barrett was 12-15/226 passing, but he didn't run the ball real well. This game was closer than the final score indicates.

7) What genius at ESPN decided to replace Brent Musburger with Chris Fowler on the main primetime game each week? This is blatant age discrimination; anyone who thinks Fowler is better than Musburger is a nitwit, plain and simple.

6) UL-Monroe 17, Wake Forest 10-- ULM beat Wake for the second year in a row, as Deacons are 3rd-youngest team in country and are playing a true freshman at the most important position on the field, quarterback. Wake had 5 first downs-- 5.

5) UCLA 28, Virginia 20-- Bruins led 21-10 at half, but all three TDs were scored by the UCLA defense. Bruins had trouble protecting their QB.

4) Western Kentucky 59, Bowling Green 31-- Hilltopper QB Brandon Doughty was 46-56/569 passing, with six TDs- thats a full day's work.

3) North Dakota State 34, Iowa State 14-- Bison have now won five games in a row vs I-A opponents-- why would a I-A schedule this I-AA titan? This is a really bad loss for the Cyclones, by three TDs to a I-AA team.

2) Syracuse and NC State both beat I-AA opponents by one point, not a good omen as they head towards ACC play. Villanova went for a 2-point play and the win in OT in the Carrier Dome, but they didn't make it and the Orangemen escaped.

1) Temple (+14.5), Texas-San Antonio (+12.5) were the biggest pointspread underdogs to win straight up this weekend.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Sunday's games
Utah State is 26-9 vs spread as a road underdog since '07; their senior QB Keeton has made 27 starts, though he missed most of last year with an injury. Aggies have four new starters on OL; they're 20-7 SU the last two years, beating MAC teams in bowls both years. Tennessee is only team in country without a returning starter on either line- Jones is 4th HC in last seven years; Vols are 2-8 as home favorites last two years- they have five starters back on both sides of ball, but do have QB with 10 career starts.

Baylor opens its new stadium here, vs SMU squad that is 5-11 as road dogs since 2010. Mustangs lost 59-24 here two years ago; they have six starters back on both sides of the ball, with two new starters on the OL. Bears covered 13 of last 15 tries as a home favorite in their old stadium- they're 16-9 as home favorites in Briles era. Baylor lost seven starters on defense; this is their toughest September game, as they break in lot of new players, but QB Petty threw 32 TDs LY, with only three INTs.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Sunday, August 31

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Game of the Day: SMU at Baylor
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Southern Methodist Mustangs at Baylor Bears (-33, 74.5)

Tenth-ranked Baylor feels like it still has something to prove when it opens its new $266 million on-campus McLane Stadium on Sunday against visiting Southern Methodist. The reigning Big 12 champion set an NCAA record by scoring 52.4 points per game and led the nation with 618.8 yards in 2013 but finished 2-2 - including a 52-42 loss to Central Florida in the Fiesta Bowl. The Bears' high-flying offense has to replace two running backs and a key lineman but senior quarterback Bryce Petty has lots of targets returning.

"Our offense is going to be unbelievable - faster, stronger and more physical," the Heisman hopeful told the media earlier this month. "We have more athletes than we've had in a long time." Sophomore Neal Burcham won the job to replace SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert and the Mustangs need an improved defense to aid the transition. SMU's June Jones has never had back-to-back losing seasons in his 15 years as a coach.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: A large portion of offshores opened the Bears as 31.5-point home faves, but that line is now Baylor -33. The total is currently 74.5.

INJURY REPORT: Mustangs - DB J.R. Richardson (Questionable, illness). Bears - WR Corey Coleman (Questionable, hamstring), WR Clay Fuller (Out indefinitely, collarbone).

WEATHER REPORT: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-90s with wind blowing from the south at 13 mph.

ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS): Burcham started the final two games in place of injured Gilbert and finished the year completing 58.7 percent of his passes for 556 yards and two touchdowns. Junior receiver Darius Joseph (808 yards, five touchdowns) was ranked second in the American Athletic Conference last year with 103 catches and linebacker-turned-running back Kevin Pope will give the Mustangs depth in the backfield. SMU has three defensive line starters and linebacker Stephon Sanders (86 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss) returning to a defense that allowed 412.6 yards and 33.3 points last year.

ABOUT BAYLOR (2013: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS): Petty (62 percent completions for 4,200 yards, 32 touchdowns, three interceptions) and the Bears have five of their top six receivers back, including Antwan Goodley (71 catches, 1,339 yards, 13 scores) and Levi Norwood (47, 733, eight), who is on a 27-game reception streak. Shock Linwood will be the primary back after rushing for 881 yards and eight touchdowns last year behind departed 1,000-yard rusher Lache Seastrunk. Linebacker Bryce Hager (71 tackles in nine games before a season-ending injury) and safety Terrell Burt (61 tackles, two interceptions) return to lead a young defense.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Over is 4-0 in Bears last four non-conference games.
* Over is 21-5-1 in Bears last 27 home games.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-five percent of Consensus bets are backing Baylor.