The Bum's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 1

August 25, 2014


The Pac-12 kicks off another season, and the same old faces will be in contention with Oregon, Stanford, and to a lesser extent, Washington, contending in the North Division, while UCLA and Arizona State battle it out in the South Division. Southern California is also trying to get back into the mix in the South. Last season, we also saw some upward mobility from Washington State, as head coach Mike Leach's system was a nice fit for the high-flying Pac-12. The Cougars will be a team to watch, especially for 'over' bettors. California and Colorado remain the dregs of the league, although both should be a little better.

2013 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 8-5 4-5 6-7 5-8

Arizona State 10-4 8-1 7-7 9-5

California 1-11 0-9 2-10 5-6-1

Colorado 4-8 1-8 7-5 8-4

Oregon 11-2 7-2 8-5 7-6

Oregon State 7-6 4-5 7-6 7-6

Southern California 10-4 6-3 7-7 4-9-1

Stanford 11-3 7-2 7-7 6-8

UCLA 10-3 6-3 9-4 6-7

Utah 5-7 2-7 6-6 5-7

Washington 9-4 5-4 7-6 6-7

Washington State 6-7 4-5 9-4 7-5-1

Rutgers at Washington State (Thursday - FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m. ET)
The high-octane offense of WaZu will be on display Thursday night, and QB Connor Halliday is back to post big-time numbers again. Rutgers is just 2-5 ATS in the past seven non-conference tilts, while Washington State is 3-1-1 ATS stepping outside of the Pac-12. This one could be a shootout on the Palouse. Remember, last season Rutgers opened on the road with a 52-51 overtime thriller at Fresno State.

Colorado State vs Colorado (Friday - FOX Sports 1, 9:00p.m. ET)
These Rocky Mountain State rivals do not like each other, and this is a big game in the state of Colorado. It is usually fairly close, too, with the underdog covering in 13 of the past 18 meetings in this series. Colorado State has covered just twice in the past seven installments of this series. Lately, it has been a defensive battle, too, with the 'under' cashing in five of the past six meetings.

UNLV at Arizona (Friday, ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Arizona is better than a three-touchdown favorite against Vegas. In the past seven non-conference games for Arizona, the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS. For the Rebels, they are 2-5-2 ATS in the past nine non-conference tilts while managing an awful 12-37-4 ATS mark over the past 53 road games. UNLV is a team which is deficient in Acadamic Progress Rate (APR), and they will be ineligible for a bowl in 2014. It will be interesting to see how motivated this team is this season. Arizona could get out to a slow start, as QB B.J. Denker and RB Ka'Deem Carey have moved on.

UCLA at Virginia (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
UCLA QB Brett Hundley put off the NFL for one more season, returning to Pasadena with unfinished business. He should get things off on a good foot in Charlottesville, as the Cavaliers are 2-9-1 ATS in their past 12 non-conference games, and just 7-15-2 ATS over the past two season. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their past four forays outside of the Pac-12. UCLA is also 17-10 ATS over the past two seasons. The bright spot for UVA is RB Kevin Parks, who ran for 1,031 yards and 11 scores, but he might be a non-factor if UCLA builds a big lead as expected. They're better than a three-touchdown favorite.

California at Northwestern (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
Cal has been horrid against the spread over the past two seasons, going just 5-19 ATS. They're a 10-1/2 point underdog in Evanston. They have managed a 1-6 ATS record in their past seven non-conference battles, and they're just 1-11 ATS in the past 12 on a grass surface. Northwestern is 7-2 ATS in the past nine non-conference tilts, and that includes last season's 44-30 road win in Berkeley.

Fresno State at Southern California (FOX, 7:30 p.m.)
USC kicks off the Steve Sarkisian era as a three-touchdown favorite against visiting Fresno. The Trojans have managed a 2-7 ATS mark in their past nine non-conference games, while Fresno State is 13-6 ATS in their past 19 road outings. However, the Bulldogs are also 2-6 ATS in the past eight against Pac-12 foes. The total for this game is set at 58, and that bears watching. The 'under' is 9-17-1 for USC over the past two seasons.

Washington at Hawaii (CBS Sports Network, 10:30 p.m.)
Washington hits the road for Hawaii to begin the Chris Petersen era. QB Jeff Lindquist will be the team's starting quarterback. RB Deontae Cooper also must fill big shoes vacated by RB Bishop Sankey, who is now playing on Sundays. Lindquist will be aided by a strong corps of receivers, including WR Kasen Williams (leg) who is back from a broken leg. Offensive genius Norm Chow has yet to work his magic for Hawaii, as they're just 4-20 SU over the past two years. However, they're 5-6 ATS in the past 11 at home, and 3-0 ATS over the past two seasons against Pac-12 teams.

Other Pac-12 teams in action

Idaho State at Utah (*Thursday, Pac-12 Network, 7:30 p.m.)

Weber State at Arizona State (*Thursday, Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)

Portland State at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m.)

UC Davis at Stanford (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m.)

South Dakota at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 1

August 25, 2014


The Atlantic Coast Conference kicks off the season with a new member, the Louisville Cardinals replacing the departed Maryland Terrapins. Wake Forest will kick things off with a trip to Louisiana-Monroe Thursday night.

2013 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 7-6 4-4 7-6 8-5

Clemson 11-2 7-1 7-6 8-5

Duke 10-4 6-2 11-3 6-8

Florida State 14-0 8-0 11-3 10-4

Georgia Tech 7-6 5-3 5-7-1 8-5

Louisville 12-1 7-1 (in AAC) 6-7 3-10

Miami (Fla.) 9-4 5-3 5-8 7-6

North Carolina 7-6 4-4 8-5 4-9

North Carolina State 3-9 0-8 4-8 6-6

Virginia 2-10 0-8 5-6-1 9-3

Virginia Tech 8-5 5-3 4-8-1 5-7-1

Wake Forest 4-8 2-6 5-7 3-9

Wake Forest at Louisiana-Monroe (Thursday - ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
These two teams met in Winston-Salem last year, with ULM coming away with a 21-19 SU win and cover. Both teams will be breaking in new quarterbacks. Wake's front seven is decimated by graduation, where they are replacing five starters. ULM, on the other hand, allowed 426.8 yards per game last season, but they have key pieces back. The slight edge on defense might go to the WarHawks. This game could feature some sloppy offensive production early as inexperienced players get their feet wet. The 'under' is 16-7 over the past two seasons for Wake.

UCLA at Virginia (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
UCLA QB Brett Hundley put off the NFL for one more season, returning to Pasadena with unfinished business. He should get things off on a good foot in Charlottesville, as the Cavaliers are 2-9-1 ATS in their past 12 non-conference games, and just 7-15-2 ATS over the past two season. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their past four forays outside of the Pac-12. The bright spot for UVA is RB Kevin Parks, who ran for 1,031 yards and 11 scores, but he might be a non-factor if UCLA builds a big lead as expected. They're better than a three-touchdown favorite.

Clemson at Georgia (ESPN, 5:30p.m. ET)
One of the two marquee games of the weekend in the ACC takes place in Athens, and if it is half as entertaining as last season's 38-35 Clemson win in Death Valley, then everyone will be happy. Head coach Dabo Swinney turns to QB Col Stoudt, who takes over for departed QB Tajh Boyd. WR Sammy Watkins is also gone, so it will be interesting to see how offensive coordinator Chad Morris uses his news parts. The Tigers are 8-3 ATS over the past 11 road games, but that was with an experienced offensive core. UGA is 10-4-1 ATS over its past 15 against ACC opponents, including last year's battle. UGA was just 2-3-1 ATS in six games at home last season, and they too break in a new QB after Aaron Murray left for the NFL. Covering seven-and-a-hook might be daunting task. The 'under' is also 5-1 in Clemson's past six against SEC foes.

Florida State vs Oklahoma State (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The other marquee game of the weeekend in the ACC will kick off in AT&T Stadium in Dallas, with defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and the national champion Seminoles meeting Oklahoma State. These two sides haven't met since the 1985 season. FSU is a healthy favorite, but they'll need to figure out how to replace departed WR Kelvin Benjamin. FSU is favored by at least 17 points across the board, and they seem to rise to the occasion in neutral-site games. They're 12-3-1 ATS on a neutral field over their past 16. The 'under' is also 6-0 in FSU's past six neutral-site battles, including last season's ACC Championship and national title game.

Miami, Fla. at Louisville (Monday - ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
These two sides met in the Russell Athletic Bowl last season, with the Cardinals embarrassing the Canes by a 36-9 score. Both teams are replacing long-time starting QBs, and this is now an official conference game, too. True freshman QB Brad Kaaya takes the reins under center for Miami, while head coach Bobby Petrino turns to QB Will Gardner. The new Cards QB has the benefit of WR DeVante Parker (foot) in the receiving game, although he suffered a foot injury last week and that's worth keeping an eye on. The Cards are a field-goal favorite, and they're 13-3 ATS in their past 16 conference games while Miami is 1-6 ATS in their past seven in conference.

Other ACC teams in action

Villanova at Syracuse (*Friday - 7:30 p.m. ET )

Delaware at Pittsburgh (12:00 p.m. ET)

Wofford at Georgia Tech (12:30 p.m. ET)

William & Mary at Virginia Tech (ESPNews, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Elon at Duke (6:00 p.m. ET)

Liberty at North Carolina (6:00 p.m. ET)

[StarDust Bum]

2014 Big Ten Predictions

August 26, 2014


Skinny:

Ohio State was the favorite to win the Big Ten until senior quarterback Braxton Miller went down with a season-ending shoulder injury less than two weeks before the season opener. Since then, Michigan State and Wisconsin have been tabbed as the +240 co-favorites at Sportsbook.ag.

Ohio State now has 3/1 odds to win the conference. Urban Meyer's team saw its future odds to win the national title move from 10/1 to 40/1. Some shops previously had them at 11/1 or 12/1 and there are books currently showing the Buckeyes at 50/1.

At least in terms of its Week 1 opener, oddsmakers have determined that Miller is a six-point difference maker in the line. Ohio State was favored by 17.5 vs. Navy (in Baltimore), and that number moved all the way down to 12. However, it's back up to 14 and even 14.5 at a few shops.

Kenny Guiton filled in remarkably well when Miller was injured last season, throwing 14 touchdowns passes compared to only two interceptions. But Meyer can't turn to a senior this time around. Instead, redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett has been named the starter. Barrett sustained a season-ending injury in his senior year of high school, so he'll be seeing his first game action since early October of 2012 when he takes his first collegiate snap against the Midshipmen.

The loss of Miller, who was the Big Ten's Offensive Player of the Year in 2013, also prompted an adjustment in the team's season win total. That number has gone from 10.5 (with an expensive price to take the 'over') to 10 shaded to the 'under' at a -160 price tag.

After winning the first 24 games of Meyer's tenure, Ohio State followed up the loss to Michigan St. with an Orange Bowl defeat against Clemson. From that team that finished 12-2 straight up and 7-7 against the spread, the Buckeyes bring back four starters on offense and seven on defense.

Even without Miller, gamblers can't count Ohio St. out as a contender because of its super-soft schedule. The Bucks don't face any of the top four teams (Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern) from the West Division, and they get their toughest non-conference test at home against Va. Tech.

Michigan State went 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS in 2013, posting a third double-digit win season in the last four years. The Spartans return seven starters on offense and five on defense.

The only blemish on Sparty's record last season was a 17-13 loss to Notre Dame in South Bend. After beating Ohio State, Mark Dantonio's team made another statement by taking out Stanford 24-20 as a 6.5-point underdog at the Rose Bowl.

Junior QB Connor Cook rapidly improved as he got more playing time last year, and there's no reason to think he won't have another big season. Cook threw for 2,755 yards with a stellar 22/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Cook has one of the Big Ten's top running backs in Jeremy Langford, who rushed for 1,422 yards and 18 TDs while averaging 4.9 yards per carry last season.

Sparty's defense was absolutely nasty last year, surrendering just 13.2 points per game. This until held six opponents to six points or less. Junior DE Shilique Calhoun returns after earning third-team All-American honors thanks to 7.5 sacks, 18 QB hurries and one interception. Free safety Kurtis Drummond (91 tackles, four interceptions) and cornerback Trae Waynes (50 tackles, three INTs) give the MSU 'D' three legit All-American candidates.

After winning 11 games in his first year on campus, Brady Hoke has won just 15 games combined in the last two seasons. This development makes it a crucial campaign in Ann Arbor, where 7-6 ledgers (like LY - both SU and ATS) are unacceptable.

Michigan brings back seven starters on offense and eight on defense. The most important returnee is QB Devin Gardner, who had 11 rushing scores and a 21/11 TD-INT ratio.

The schedule has four daunting road assignments, including division games at Ohio St. and Michigan St. (at Notre Dame and at Northwestern are the others). In addition, Michigan hosts Appalachian St. and Utah, both of whom have come to The Big House and come away with victories recently.

Maryland is off a 7-6 season both SU and ATS in the ACC, but we have to note that its two best players (WRs Stefon Diggs and Deon Long) were lost in October to season-ending injuries. Also, QB C.J. Brown missed a pair of games after sustaining a concussion in a blowout loss at FSU.

This trio is back and that alone gives Randy Edsall's team hope, as it takes a slight step up in class by switching conferences. Brown rushed for 12 TDs and produced a 13/7 TD-INT ratio, while Diggs had 34 catches for 587 yards and four TDs in the seven games prior to tearing his ACL. Long had 32 receptions for 489 yards and one TD.

The Terps get a tough draw from the other division with a home game vs. Iowa and a brutal trip to Camp Randall to face Wisconsin. Even the non-conference slate is challenging with a pair of road games at South Florida (in Tampa's mid-September heat) and at Syracuse. They also play at Michigan in the frigid conditions of late November.

Maryland returns eight starters on offense and nine on defense. The Terps have a win total of 6.5 ('under' -130, even money for the 'over'). They have 33/1 odds to win the Big Ten.

Penn State lost Bill O'Brien after he gave the school two solid years (15-9 SU, 14-10 ATS) under tumultuous circumstance. Considering the fact that PSU was always going to have to worry about him bolting to the NFL, it is probably better off in the long run with new coach James Franklin, who is almost certainly in for the long haul and is a spectacular coach.

Seriously, does anyone think that the game's greatest like Meyer, Nick Saban or Steve Spurrier could've won more game than Franklin did at Vanderbilt the last three years? The Commodores had been to one bowl game since 1982 before Franklin arrived as a relative unknown.

On Franklin's watch, Vandy went to three consecutive bowl games, won 18 combined games in 2012 and 2013 and became a shocking force on the recruiting trail. Speaking of recruiting, Franklin is killing it for Penn St., which is currently in the top five of every publication's team rankings for the 2015 class.

PSU brings back five starters on offense and seven on defense. Most important, sophomore QB Christian Hackenberg returns after a banner freshman campaign. Hackenberg completed 58.9 percent of his passes for 2,955 yards with a 20/10 TD-INT ratio. Although Allen Robinson (97 catches for 1,432 yards) is off to the NFL, Hackenburg probably has the country's best trio of tight ends, and three of the top four recruits in this year's freshman class are WRs.

Hackenburg has a pair of quality RBs in Zach Zwinak and Bill Belton. Zwinak rushed for 989 yards and 12 TDs in 2013, while Belton had 803 rushing yards and five TDs.

Penn State should be favored in four of its first five games (it is currently a short 'dog for the opener vs. UCF in Dublin, Ireland), and it then gets an open date before an Oct. 11 trip to The Big House. Next, another off week precedes a monster home game vs. Ohio St.

In the fourth season of Kevin Wilson's tenure, Indiana has an excellent chance to get to a bowl game for the first time since 2007. The Hoosiers return eight starters from an offense that averaged 38.4 PPG. They have nine starters back on defense from a team that finished 5-7 both SU and ATS.

With Tre Roberson transferring, QB Nate Sudfeld will get all the snaps. The junior has a career 28/10 TD-INT ratio. Sudfeld lost his favorite target Cody Latimer to the NFL, but he has one of the Big Ten's best RBs to lean on. Tevin Coleman rushed for 958 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 7.3 YPC last year.

Senior WR Shane Wynn is poised for a monster year after hauling in 46 catches for 633 yards and a team-high 11 TDs in 2013. The Hoosiers are looking for an instant impact from its top recruit in freshman WR Dominique Booth.

The defense has been horrible under Wilson, allowing an average of more than 35 PPG each season. The hope is that former Wake Forest DC Brian Knoor can help this unit improve on its abysmal 38.8 PPG average from last season.

Rutgers joins Maryland as new members of the Big Ten, giving the league a presence in huge metropolitan areas of Washington D.C. and New York City. RU has gone bowling in both seasons under Kyle Flood, but a 6-7 SU record last year and the presence of former coach Greg Schiano on the free-agent market makes this a crucial campaign for Flood.

Rutgers has nine starters back on offense and seven on defense. QB Gary Nova enters his senior season with 28 career starts under his belt. Nova had an 18/14 TD-INT ratio last year and for his career, those numbers are 51/39.

Paul James was one of the nation's leading rushers before getting injured last October. Although James missed four games, he still ran for a team-high 881 yards and nine TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC. The Scarlet Knights have experienced depth behind him with Justin Goodwin and Savon Huggins, who is 'doubtful' for opener at Washington St. due to a shoulder injury.

Junior WR Tyler Kroft was a first-team All-AAC selection after making 43 catches for 573 yards and four TDs. RU has experience at this position as well, but we should note that Ruhann Peele (28 catches, 281 yards) is 'doubtful' at Wazzu with an upper-body ailment. Junior WR Leonte Carroo had a team-high nine TD catches last year.

Since 2006, RU owns a 17-8 spread record as a road underdog. The Scarlet Knights will face at least five such spots this season and possibly a sixth (at Navy). The schedule isn't doing any favors for Flood's chances of being back in 2015.

Wisconsin went 9-4 both SU and ATS in its first season under Gary Andersen, who replaced Bret Beilema after a nice run at Utah St. This space has always been a big fan of Andersen, but that won't prevent us from taking more shots at him for completely blowing last season's game at Arizona St. with an atrocious clock-management decision.

UW brings back seven starters on offense and three on defense. Nearly the entire front seven from the 'D' has to be replaced, which doesn't bode well for the season opener against an LSU team that has an excellent o-line and terrific trio of running backs.

Andersen announced a shocker last week when he named Tanner McEvoy as the starting QB over Joel Stave, who started all 13 games last year and six as a freshman in 2012. McEvoy made 27 tackles and had an interception as a safety last season. He suits Andersen's offense better because of his mobility (think Chuckie Keeton at Utah St.).

Junior RB Melvin Gordon is a legit Heisman candidate who had 1,609 rushing yards and 12 TDs last year. Gordon averaged 7.8 YPC en route to earning fourth-team All-American honors. The Badgers are hurting at the WR position after losing their top four pass catchers, including Jared Abbrederis, the school's second all-time leading receiver.

Wisconsin doesn't have to play Michigan St. or Ohio St. from the other division, but it has to face West rivals Iowa and Northwestern on the road. Nevertheless, the Badgers are the team to beat in the Big Ten West.

Iowa has one of the easiest schedules you'll ever see for a team from a Big Five conference. The Hawkeyes only play one team (Wisconsin) that's certain to be ranked and it gets to face the West's best (Wisconsin, Northwestern and Nebraska) at home . They might be favored in their first 10 games unless they are 'dogs at Maryland or at Minnesota.

Kirk Ferentz's squad finished 8-5 both SU and ATS in 2013, dropping a 21-14 decision to LSU at the Outback Bowl. Iowa brings back eight starters on offense and five on defense.

Junior QB Jake Rudock should be improved as a fourth-year junior after making his first 13 career starts as a sophomore. Rudock had an 18/13 TD-INT ratio and has nearly off all of his skill players back, in addition to OT Brandon Scherff, a second-team All-American choice last season.

RB Mark Weisman returns after rushing for 975 yards and eight TDs to earn third-team All Big-Ten honors. The Hawks are deep in the backfield with three back-ups that combined to rush for more than 1,000 yards.

If Iowa can win at Pitt and at Maryland, it's going to be a big year in Iowa City.

Northwestern couldn't buy a break last year, losing four one-possession games and it should've been five actually. The fifth was perhaps the biggest ATS heartbreaker in college football history when the Wildcats lost 40-30 as 6.5-point home underdogs to Ohio St. They were literally ahead of the number for every second of the 60-minute game, but on the final play a series of laterals resulted in a crazy deflection that sent the ball backwards about 20 yards into the end zone where the Buckeyes recovered for a TD.

Pat Fitzgerald's team went 10-3 SU and 11-1-1 ATS just two years ago. It won its first four games in 2013 and led Ohio St. outright for most of the first three quarters. But a crucial interception deep in its own territory and a terrible spot by an official on a fourth-and-inches play in the second half proved to be too much to overcome.

With a 4-1 record, Northwestern lost star RB and special-teams ace Venric Mark to a season-ending injury. Things unraveled from there with the Wildcats losing in overtime at Iowa and in triple OT vs. Michigan. Between those OT setbacks, they lost at Nebraska on a Hail Mary as time expired.

Northwestern returns eight starters on both offense and defense, but bad luck has already struck again here in August. Mark was issued a two-game suspension and then decided to transfer to West Texas A&M. Within 24 hours of that news coming out, WR Christian Jones tore his ACL and was lost for the year. Jones was coming off a 54-reception campaign for a team-best 668 yards and four TDs.

There are still reasons for optimism, however. The defense has several candidates for All Big Ten honors, including safety Ibraheim Campbell, LB Chi Chi Ariguzo (106 tackles, 4 interceptions and two sacks), DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (5.5 sacks) and DE Dean Lowry (4.5 sacks and two INTs).

The 'Cats have only missed the postseason twice in Fitzgerald's first eight seasons, and they'll almost certainly be bowling again this year. They get Wisconsin and Nebraska at home and also have an open date ahead of a key road game at Iowa.

Nebraska has won at least nine games in Bo Pelini's first six seasons, yet the coach's mercurial and explosive personality seem to consistently keep him teetering close to hot-seat status. The Cornhuskers went out in style with a 24-19 win over Georgia at the Gator Bowl, avenging a postseason loss to the Bulldogs from the previous year.

Nebraska returns five starters on both sides of the ball. Injuries in August have taken a toll on the defense. LB Michael Rose is out for the year after recording 66 tackles (six for losses) as a redshirt freshman. Valuable reserves LeRoy Alexander (34 tackles, 1 INT) and Aaron Curry (26 tackles, two sacks) are also out for the season.

The good news in Lincoln is that the three best players on the roster are back. Junior DE Randy Gregory earned first-team All Big Ten honors in 2013 thanks to 66 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 18 QB hurries. RB Ameer Abdullah rushed for 1,690 yards and nine TDs and also had 26 catches and a pair of TD grabs. WR Kenny Bell had 52 receptions for 577 yards and four TDs.

QB Tommy Armstrong could be the most important player, though. He made eight starts as a redshirt freshman, so his average numbers will most likely improve. Armstrong completed just 51.9 percent of his throws with a 9/8 TD-INT ratio.

The schedule featured a pair of challenging non-conference contests. In Week 3, Nebraska has to go West and face Fresno St. on the road. Next, the Cornhuskers play host to Miami. They have four tough road assignments at Michigan St., Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa.

Minnesota is off its best season in a more than a decade, going 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS. The year ended on a down note, though, as the Gophers lost a 21-17 decision to Syracuse as 4.5-point favorites at the Texas Bowl.

Jerry Kill's team returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense. The catalyst will be senior RB David Cobb, who was third-team All Big Ten selection after rushing for 1,202 yards and seven TDs. After starting four games as a freshman, Mitch Leidner will be the starting QB. Leidner rushed for 407 yards and seven TDs, while also throwing for 619 yards with a 3/1 TD-INT ratio.

The 'D' is led by junior DE Theiren Cockran, who had seven sacks and earned second-team All Big Ten honors as a sophomore. The Gophers should be solid on defense again, losing just four starters from a unit that allowed only 22.2 PPG.

Illinois and Purdue are going to struggle mightily again in 2014. The Illini have won just six games in two seasons under Tim Beckman, who is on the hot seat after a 4-8 campaign. Beckman's squad returns six starters on offense and eight on defense.

Purdue went 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS in its first season with Darrell Hazell on the sidelines. The Boilermakers bring back eight starters on offense and seven on defense.

Fearless Predictions

2014 Win-Loss Projections

School Record Win Total (5Dimes) Bowl Projection

East Division

Michigan State 12-1 9 College Football Playoff #3 vs. #2 Oklahoma

Ohio State 10-2 10 Fiesta Bowl vs. UCLA

Penn State 9-3 7.5 N/A

Michigan 8-4 7.5 Holiday Bowl vs. Michigan

Maryland 6-6 6.5 Heart of Dallas Bowl vs. TBD

Indiana 6-6 5.5 Detroit Bowl vs. TBD

Rutgers 3-9 4.5 N/A


West Division

Wisconsin 10-3 9.5 Peach Bowl vs. Georgia

Iowa 9-3 8 Capital One vs. Ole Miss

Nebraska 8-4 8 Outback Bowl vs. Nebraska

Northwestern 7-5 7.5 Fight Hunger Bowl vs. Oregon St.

Minnesota 7-5 6.5 Pinstripe vs. Miami

Illinois 4-8 4.5 N/A

Purdue 3-9 3.5 N/A


**Players to Watch**

1. Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin RB) - He can take it to the house on any given touch and he's got a strong offensive line in front of him.

2. Connor Cook (Michigan St. QB) - Cook improved with every start last year. He still has talent galore around him and a nasty defense.

3. Stefon Diggs (Maryland WR) - A recent video that went viral proved that he's 100 percent recovered from a torn ACL. I expect him to have another big year and then be a first-round pick next spring.

4. J.T. Barrett (Ohio St. QB) - Barrett was ranked as the 11th-best dual-threat QB coming out of high school in the 2013 class. Although he hasn't seen game action since early October of 2012, Barrett has clearly earned the confidence of his head coach. We'll see what he can do.

5. Devin Gardner (Michigan QB) - Like a hot 3-point shooter in basketball, Gardner can get you a nice lead with his explosive plays but, by the same token, he can allow opponents back in games with his inconsistency and propensity for turnovers. He must cut down on his interceptions for Michigan to thrive and Hoke to keep his job.

**Games to Watch**

1. Ohio St. at Michigan St. - Big revenge game for the Buckeyes, who suffered their first loss on Meyer's watch when Sparty took it to them in a 34-24 win as a five-point underdog at the Big Ten Championship Game. These teams are in the same division now and this showdown in East Lansing will go a long way towards deciding who plays for the conference title.

2. Wisconsin at Iowa - The guess here is that this game will determine the Big Ten West. Last year's game in Iowa City had a very misleading final, with Wisconsin prevailing by a 28-9 count. But the Hawkeyes led 6-0 with less than two minutes remaining in the first half, and they should've easily been ahead by double digits at that point. The Badgers pulled away by extending a 14-9 fourth-quarter lead thanks to a pair of Iowa turnovers deep in its own territory.

3. Michigan St. at Penn State - PSU can play the spoiler role as a home underdog in its regular-season finale. Something tells me James Franklin will have the Nittany Lions fired up for this one.

4. Michigan at Ohio State - If Hoke's job security is in question, he can undoubtedly retain his job by orchestrating a win at The 'Shoe.

5. Ohio State at Maryland - Can C.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs and Deon Long make enough big plays to orchestrate a major upset as a home underdog?

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Consensus Picks

August 25, 2014

The first season of the four-team playoff in college football will keep things wide-open heading into January. We polled our stable of handicappers looking for their views on who will make the inaugural “Final Four,” as defending champion Florida State and Alabama are two of the front-runners to win the National Championship. However, the Seminoles and Crimson Tide weren’t the overwhelming favorites among the panel, as Pac-12 favorites Oregon and UCLA were selected by several handicappers to win it all.

Who will raise the AFCA National Championship trophy in January? A handful of VegasInsider.com’s handicappers give their opinion on who will win the title, starting with the defending champions from Tallahassee.

Florida State

James Manos - Their ACC schedule is very manageable as they get a young Clemson team at home in week 4 and FSU is off a bye. They must play Louisville on the road on a Thursday but get a bye prior to that game as well. The ‘Noles play Florida and Notre Dame but get both those games at home and the Seminoles have the stifling defense to contain both of those mediocre offenses. FSU has a confident leader in quarterback Jameis Winston and the best combination of offensive line and defensive line in the country. They could conceivably, with their hype, high preseason ranking, and Heisman trophy candidate, lose to Notre Dame and still garner a playoff spot.

Oregon

Joe Nelson - With the Pac-12 playing nine-conference games plus a conference championship game, even a one-loss champion in the conference appears to be a safe bet for inclusion in the four-team playoff field. Oregon has failed as the conference favorite the past two seasons, but this is an elite program that gets most of its toughest games at home this season. If Oregon beats Michigan State early in the season, they would have a big trump card in comparisons with the potential Big Ten champion if the resumes are similar and Oregon could even make a strong case for inclusion as the Pac-12 champion with two losses in some scenarios if there are few undefeated teams nationwide. The toughest road game for Oregon is at UCLA this season and a loss in that game could potentially be avenged in the conference championship which could also provide a boost for the case for the Ducks.

Alabama

Stephen Nover - Defense and running back depth are enough for the Crimson Tide. Finding another game manager to replace A.J McCarron won't be that difficult especially given the weapons Alabama has. The last time the Crimson Tide ended a season with consecutive losses under Nick Saban was 2008. The following year they went undefeated and won the national championship.

UCLA

Greg Smith - QB Brett Hundley might win the Heisman. They have 18 returning starters and will have one of the top offenses in the country. But most importantly, the Bruins defense could be their strongest asset. Bringing back almost the entire defensive line, opponents will have their work cut out. Also, their schedule seems very nice this year, with three of their toughest games, Oregon, USC and Stanford...all at home. I believe Jim Mora will out-coach teams in the playoffs and win the National Championship.

2015 National Championship Odds

Florida State 18/5

Alabama 6/1

Oregon 7/1

Auburn 10/1

Oklahoma 12/1

Georgia 13/1

UCLA 14/1

Ohio State 20/1

South Carolina 23/1

LSU 25/1

USC 28/1

Michigan State 30/1

Baylor 30/1

Wisconsin 30/1

Florida 35/1

Ole Miss 45/1

Michigan 50/1

Stanford 65/1

Notre Dame 75/1

Clemson 80/1



NCAA Football Playoff Predictions

Playoff team #1 Playoff team #2 Playoff team #3 Playoff team #4 Champion

Andy Iskoe Oregon Florida State Wisconsin Auburn Oregon

Antony Dinero Florida State Alabama Oregon Oklahoma Florida State

ASA Florida State South Carolina Oklahoma Alabama Florida State

Brian Edwards Oklahoma Florida State Michigan State Alabama Oklahoma

Dave Cokin Michigan State Oklahoma Alabama UCLA UCLA

Greg Smith Florida State Alabama UCLA Michigan State UCLA

James Manos Florida State Alabama Oklahoma Wisconsin Florida State

Jimmy Boyd Florida State Alabama Oregon Oklahoma Alabama

Joe Nelson Florida State Alabama Oregon Oklahoma Oregon

Joe Williams Oregon Florida State Alabama Baylor Oregon

John Fisher Florida State UCLA Baylor South Carolina Florida State

Kevin Rogers Florida State Michigan State Alabama UCLA Michigan State

Kyle Hunter Florida State Alabama UCLA Georgia Alabama

Marc Lawrence Alabama Florida State Oregon Oklahoma Oregon

Mark Franco Florida State Alabama Michigan State Oregon Alabama

Mike Rose Florida State Alabama Michigan State Wisconsin Alabama

Pat Hawkins Florida State Oregon LSU Alabama Alabama

Scott Pritchard Florida State Alabama Oregon Ohio State Florida State

Stephen Nover Oregon Michigan State Baylor Alabama Alabama

The Prez Alabama Clemson UCLA Oklahoma Alabama

The SportsBoss Florida State Oregon South Carolina Baylor Florida State

Tony Stoffo South Carolina Oregon Florida State Oklahoma South Carolina

Vince Akins Florida State Alabama Oregon Georgia Alabama

[jcindaville]

Thanks Stardust

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet

August 27, 2014


**Brigham Young at Connecticut**

-- As of early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had BYU installed as a 16.5-point road favorite with a total of 51. Gamblers can take the Huskies to win outright for a +550 return (risk $100 to win $550).

-- BYU is coming off a season in which it went 8-5 straight up and 6-7 against the spread. The Cougars dropped a 31-16 decision to Washington at the Fight Hunger Bowl. BYU's other defeats came at Virginia (19-16), vs. Utah (20-13), at Wisconsin (27-17) and at Notre Dame (23-13). The highlight of the year was a 40-21 home win over Texas as a seven-point underdog. The Cougars also won 31-14 at Utah State and trashed Georgia Tech 38-20 as seven-point home 'chalk.'

-- Bronco Mendenhall's team returns eight starters on offense and six on defense. This is his 10th season as head coach. Junior QB Taysom Hill is the star of this squad and for those unfamiliar, he might remind you of Tim Tebow. Hill is a bruising runner who has speed but does some of his best work between the tackles. He rushed for a team-high 1,344 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Hill's passing numbers improved as the year went on, and he finished with 2,938 passing yards and a 19/14 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

-- BYU junior running back Jamaal Williams won't play Friday night due to a one-game suspension. Williams rushed for 1,233 yards and seven TDs last year, averaging 5.7 YPC. Also, WR Devon Blackmon and starting nose tackle Marques Johnson will serve one-game suspensions. Blackmon, a Juco transfer who initially signed with Oregon and played three games for the Ducks in 2012, was the prize recruit in the Cougars' 2014 class. Johnson made 31 tackles last season.

-- BYU senior LB Alani Fua is 'questionable' with a strained hip flexor. Fua was the Cougars' sixth-leading tackler in 2013 when he was in on 63 stops. He had three sacks, 10 passes broken up, two tackles for loss and a pair of QB hurries.

-- UConn went 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS last season, prompting the school to send Paul Pasqualoni packing. On the bright side, the Huskies ended the year on a three-game winning streak. They return seven starters on offense and six on defense.

-- Bob Diaco takes over as the new head coach after spending the last five years (four at Notre Dame, one at Cincinnati) as Brian Kelly's defensive coordinator. Diaco, who is a first-time head coach, hired Mike Cummings as his offensive coordinator. Cummings held the same post at Central Michigan the last four years. The co-DCs are Anthony Poindexter (former DBs coach at Virginia) and former New England Patriot Vincent Brown, who was also on the UVA staff for the last four seasons.

-- UConn will go with sophomore Casey Cochran as its starting QB. Cochran started the last four games of 2013. He played eight games last year, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,293 yards with an 11/4 TD-INT ratio.

-- UConn has nearly of its WRs back. Geremy Davis is one of the AAC's top wideouts and is coming off a year in which he hauled in 71 catches for 1,085 yards and three TDs. -- UConn's Lyle McCombs rushed for a team-high 670 yards and five TDs while averaging 4.2 YPC in 2013. However, in a recent development, McCombs elected to transfer to Rhode Island.

-- Since 2005, UConn has posted an incredible 19-4 spread record in 23 games as a home underdog. Only four of those contests had the Huskies catching a double-digit number, and they went 3-1 in those spots.

-- BYU owns a 15-16 spread record as a road favorite during Mendenhall's tenure. The Cougars went 0-3

-- Kick-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**UNLV at Arizona**

-- As of early Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing Arizona as a 24-point favorite with a total of 60. Most offshore shops opened UA at 23 or 23.5 and started the total at 57. When most of the Vegas books put up 60, the offshores instantly made the three-point adjustment. Bettors can back the Rebels on the money line for a +1350 payout at 5Dimes (risk $100 to win $1,350).

-- Arizona has gone 8-5 and won bowl games in back-to-back seasons since Rich Rodriguez took over as head coach. The Wildcats, who were 7-6 ATS last year, blasted Boston College 42-19 as seven-point 'chalk' at the AdvoCare V100 Bowl.

-- R-Rod's squad returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. UA has to replace its all-time leading rusher in Ka'Deem Carey, who had 1,885 rushing yards and 19 TDs in 2013. The Wildcats must also replace QB B.J. Denker, who rushed for 949 yards and 13 TDs last season. Denker also had 2,516 passing yards with a 16/7 TD-INT ratio.

-- Rodriguez is turning to a redshirt freshman, Anu Solomon, to take over for Denker as the starting QB. Solomon is a native of Las Vegas who attended prep powerhouse Bishop Gorman High School and was heavily recruited by UNLV. He will be the first Arizona freshman to start a season opener since Willie Tuitama in 2005. Rodriguez told the media, "I thought he deserved the right to start the first game. I don't know who the next guy is, but I told all four to be ready to play, because all four could play. He's playing the best of the four quarterbacks. He has a good feel for the game, and he did things better on a more consistent basis."

-- After winning only six games in the first three seasons of Bobby Hauck's tenure, UNLV won seven of its last 10 regular-season games to garner its first bowl bid since 2000. The Rebels, who finished 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS, won outright as underdogs in their last two games to become eligible for the postseason. However, the year ended on a down note when they got spanked by a 36-14 count as 6.5-point 'dogs to North Texas at the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

-- UNLV returns seven starters on offense and six on defense, but it must replace its top two offensive weapons. Tim Cornett, the school's all-time leading rusher with 3,733 career rushing yards, is gone after rushing for 15 TDs in 2013. Also, QB Caleb Herring isn't around following a season in which he threw for 2,718 yards with a stellar 24/5 TD-INT ratio.

-- Blake Decker beat out Nick Sherry for UNLV's starting QB job. Decker, who grew up in the Tempe area as an Arizona State fan, has always thought of Arizona as the enemy. Decker, a 23-year-old junior who began his career at BYU and went on a two-year Mormon mission, was one of the nation's best QBs in the Juco ranks in 2013. He threw for 4,241 yards and 47 TDs for Scottsdale (Az.) Community College.

-- UNLV compiled an abysmal 1-11 spread record in its first 12 games as a road underdog on Hauck's watch. However, the Rebels have gone 3-1 ATS as road 'dogs in back-to-back seasons.

-- Arizona is 5-6 ATS as a home favorite on R-Rod's watch. The Wildcats are 5-4 ATS in nine games as double-digit favorites (whether at home or away).

-- Arizona has won 13 consecutive home openers by an average margin of 26 points per game. The Wildcats haven't lost a home opener going all the way back to 1987.

-- When these schools met at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas last year, Arizona raced out to a 45-6 halftime lead en route to a 58-13 win as a 10.5-point road 'chalk.'

--ESPN will have the broadcast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas A&M at South Carolina

August 25, 2014


College football is back and the Thursday night schedule opens up with several big games. The SEC headlines the opening night slate with a matchup of two prominent programs as Texas A&M visits South Carolina. Mississippi and Vanderbilt are also in action for the SEC in later matchups on Thursday’s six-game slate.

Match-up: Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina (grass)
Date: Thursday, August 28, 2014
Time/TV: 6:00 PM ET – SEC Network
Line: South Carolina -10.5, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: None

The impact of Jonny Manziel at Texas A&M has been huge and it will be a great challenge for the Aggies to maintain its position among the elite teams in the SEC. While the Aggies did not win a championship in either of the past two seasons, Texas A&M went 20-6 with two bowl wins to wipe away mostly mediocre results in the past two decades. Most expected Texas A&M to struggle in the move to the SEC, but so far it has been a great success and the university is reaping the rewards in many ways, including another great recruiting class for Kevin Sumlin.

While Texas A&M will play a soft non-conference schedule in 2014, they draw one of the tougher overall schedules in the conference. There are no easy outs in the West division and the draw from the East features last year’s top two teams, with Missouri in November and this challenging opening game with South Carolina. The Aggies also have daunting travel with five of the first eight games of the season away from home and in addition to this visit to Columbia, the Aggies are playing on the road against both Alabama and Auburn this season.

Sophomore Kenny Hill has been named the starter for Texas A&M, beating out freshman Kyle Allen who many had projected to win the job. Hill did see the field last season, completing 16 passes while also rushing for 37 yards. He fits the bill as a dual-threat player that has some of the mobility that was so valuable for Manziel, and he is not much bigger than Manziel at just 6’1”.

Just as pressing as the loss at quarterback is, the loss of NFL draft pick Mike Evans who had monster numbers for the Aggies last season with nearly 1,400 receiving yards, while importantly bailing Manziel out on some of his wild scrambles. The Aggies have four receivers on the roster that had receptions last season, but the offense is very young at the skill positions. Even with the loss of several higher profile offensive linemen in recent years, the Aggies will still have an experienced unit that could be one of the best lines in the SEC, which should help the transition considerably.

While Manziel was the most talked about player at the NFL draft this spring, the #1 pick in the draft was South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. While Clowney did not have huge statistics last season, he certainly took a lot of attention from opposing teams. South Carolina actually took a substantial step back defensively in its 2013 statistics compared with 2012, though it marked a third consecutive season that South Carolina has finished 11-2 with a bowl win over a Big Ten team under Steve Spurrier, now in his 10th season with the program. It will be interesting to see if South Carolina can maintain its strong defensive reputation with a lot of new players in key spots this season.

South Carolina also lost its starting quarterback from last season in Connor Shaw, who ironically is with Manziel on the Cleveland Browns roster, at least for the time being. Shaw had a great college career also playing as a dual-threat quarterback though injuries kept him from having as consistent success. Missing some time has allowed Dylan Thompson, now a senior in the starting role to gain plenty of experience. Thompson threw for 783 yards last season including starting two games and he also started a game in the 2012 season. Thompson is much more of a pocket passer than Shaw so the Gamecocks will lean on the running backs this season.

Mike Davis is the lead running back for South Carolina and he averaged 5.8 yards per carry last season en route to a nearly 1,200 yard season. Davis had an injury scare earlier this month and has missed some practice with a rib injury, but he is expected to be a full participant for the opener. It is a position where South Carolina has some depth so it will be a committee approach for most of the season and especially in the opener as Texas A&M allowed 222 yards per game on the ground last season.

The Aggies do have a lot of experience on defense, including most of the key players on the defensive line returning to action, but statistically Texas A&M was the worst rush defense in the SEC season in 2013. Expect the Aggies to attempt to bottle up the run in this game and force Thompson to make some throws, but the Gamecocks also possess a veteran receiving corps that lost only one key player from last season’s rotation.

South Carolina is undefeated at home the past two seasons with consecutive 7-0 campaigns in Columbia, but there have been a few close calls with three wins by seven or fewer points in that span, all coming against SEC opponents. Texas A&M is actually 7-2 on the road under Sumlin and the most famous win for the program in this era came in a pretty tough venue in Tuscaloosa. This will be the biggest underdog spread for the Aggies since that 29-24 win over Alabama in 2012. The Aggies were twice a road underdog last season but they came up short in both instances.

Line Movement: The line opened at -11 before dropping to 10 and climbing back to 10.5 at most outlets. The total has climbed from 57 to 58.

Last Meeting: This is the first ever meeting between Texas A&M and South Carolina

Texas A&M Historical Trends: This program has not performed well away from home going just 66-93-3 ATS in road games since 1980 and the more recent numbers are no better with a 25-45-1 ATS record since 1999. Texas A&M is just 2-6 the last three years as an underdog and 25-41-1 ATS as an underdog going back to 2000. Texas A&M is 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points going back to 1982.

South Carolina Historical Trends: South Carolina is 32-3 S/U and 21-13 ATS at home since 2009. Under Spurrier South Carolina is 8-1 S/U but just 5-4 ATS in home openers, winning each of the last seven home openers S/U with covers in five of the last six. Under Spurrier, South Carolina is 25-17-2 ATS as a home favorite, losing outright just three times in those 44 games.

There are five additional games on the Thursday night opening slate – here is a quick look at two of the other prominent games:

Mississippi vs. Boise State (ESPN)
Line: Mississippi -10, Over/Under 54

This game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, one of two games this weekend in the building as Alabama and West Virginia will face off Saturday in Atlanta. The Broncos have played in a number of big national openers against high profile teams, featuring mixed results including an ugly loss last season against Washington. After eight impressive seasons in Boise, Chris Petersen left for the Washington opening as a new era opens. Last season, Boise State fell to 8-5 for its worst season in over a decade but that was incredibly inexperienced team. This year’s team should be better as one of the favorites in the Mountain West though this is a tough opening draw for Bryan Harsin, who takes over after just one season at Arkansas State. After a 2-10 season in 2011, Hugh Freeze has led two successful seasons for the Rebels with bowl wins. The next step is competing for a SEC title and there is a lot of experience on this team, even though the Rebels are often forgotten in the loaded SEC West. With veteran QB and nine starters back on a very talented defense, Ole Miss could be a sleeper in the West division and the SEC as a whole. Both teams have great recent records in neutral site games with Mississippi going 17-5-1 ATS since 1985 and Boise State going 10-3 ATS since 2000.

Rutgers vs. Washington State (FOX1)
Line: Washington State -8, Over/Under 61

This game is a neutral site game in Seattle at CenturyLink Field. In the opening game last season on the road, Washington State out-gained Auburn in a tough 31-24 loss. Little did anyone know that Auburn would wind up playing for a national championship at the end of the season. While there were several ugly losses along the way, Washington State wound up back in the postseason in just the second season for Mike Leach in Pullman, though the season ended with a stunning bowl loss.

The Cougars allowed 458 yards per game last season, but the offense returns quarterback Connor Halliday and nearly the entire receiving corps as this will again be a very productive offensive team. Washington State has lost by combined score of 150-64 in the last three Seattle games, but there will be much more of a home-field edge this time around given the long travel for Rutgers.

Rutgers is pegged to be one of the bottom teams in its first season in the Big Ten, but the schedule is a huge factor in the lack of optimism. This is an experienced team and Kyle Flood has done a nice job in two seasons as Rutgers has made back-to-back bowl trips, exceeding most expectations. The strength of the Knights has been stopping the run in recent seasons and that won’t be much of an issue in this matchup, but Rutgers does have veteran lines that should allow the team to compete in this game if they can cash in on offensive opportunities to keep up with the high scoring Cougars. Rutgers has been a great team to back as an underdog in the last decade, going 46-22-2 ATS when getting points since 2002. Washington State is just 17-24 ATS as a favorite since 2003 and the Cougars are just 4-11 ATS in neutral site games since 2001.

[StarDust Bum]

College football opening line report: "Right number" in marquee game

College football is finally going to have a playoff this year – sort of, with four teams getting a shot at the national title come season’s end.

A few teams that expect to be in the mix will get things rolling when the 2014 campaign kicks off this week, led by Thursday night’s clash between No. 21 Texas A&M and No. 9 South Carolina.

The host Gamecocks opened as 12-point chalk one month ago, with the number now at 10.5 as Aggies bettors have moved the needle a little bit, despite losing star quarterback Johnny Manziel to the NFL.

But South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro says his place hasn’t seen any line shift.

“We painted the game at -11 and have never moved off of it,” Vaccaro said. “This is a great way to start off the season, with two name-recognition teams. But there’s been nothing to make us move the line either way.”


Clemson Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5)

This border battle was also the season opener for both teams last year, with Clemson winning a shootout 38-35 as a 1.5-point home underdog. The Bulldogs are ranked 12th in the preseason, and the Tigers enter Saturday’s game at No. 16. Vaccaro said the South Point opened the game at Georgia -8.5, but a $2,000 bet on Clemson tightened it a notch to 8.

“In a game like this, there will be plenty of support for both sides – both are marquee teams,” he said. “I feel like there’s a buzz with Georgia, with (coach) Mark Richt in a make-or-break season. It’s the right number, right where it should be.”


Florida State Seminoles (-17.5) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Defending national champion Florida State is coming off a 14-0 season, and with Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston back at QB, the Seminoles are a consensus No. 1 in the preseason polls.

The game is Saturday night at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.

“We have the game at -18. It’s all small stuff. If the number goes up any higher, the smarts will get on Oklahoma State,” Vaccaro said, noting he indeed expects the number to jump. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the game went to -20.”

Despite the Cowboys playing not too far from home?

“I’ll bet a ham sandwich that there are as many Florida State fans in the stadium as Oklahoma State fans,” Vaccaro said.


Wisconsin Badgers vs. Louisiana State Tigers (-4)

It’s another neutral-site game, with both squads traveling to Houston’s NRG Stadium, home of the NFL’s Texans. And it’s another top-25 battle, with LSU ranked 13th and Wisconsin 14th.

“There’s not that much play on the game yet,” Vaccaro said. “Once again, it’s a great game, and it will draw plenty of attention, with a great time slot (9 p.m. Eastern kickoff). I’m gonna guess it closes at LSU -3.5. There will be plenty of Wisconsin money on game day.”


Ohio State Buckeyes (-14) at Navy Midshipmen

Ohio State opened as 19-point favorites for this quasi-neutral-site game, at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium. But that was before the Buckeyes lost superstar QB Braxton Miller for the entire season due to a shoulder injury.

“We opened at 17.5, went to 18, saw the injury report and went back to 12.5, and now we’re back to 14,” Vaccaro said. “I don’t know where this one’s going. If it goes up anymore, then you’re saying Miller is only worth 2 to 3 points. I would consider him worth more than that.”

[StarDust Bum]

The easiest and hardest opening schedules in college football

One of the most discussed aspects of college football is scheduling and, more specifically, how a teams' schedule can have a great impact on their season.

Let's take a look at some teams that will take it easy at the beginning of the season and some that will jump right into it...

Easiest Schedules

Arizona State

Opponents: Weber State, at New Mexico, at Colorado

The Sun Devils' opponents combined to go 9-27 last season. The game to watch from a betting perspective is the Colorado game because the Buffs will be better than last year and ASU may be looking forward to their next opponent, UCLA.

Mississippi State

Opponents: Southern Miss, UAB, at South Alabama

These teams also combined to go 9-27 with Southern Miss and UAB splitting just three wins between them. The game to watch is South Alabama because it's on the road and the Jaguars tend to play their opponents close, only losing one game by double digits in 2013.

Duke

Opponents: vs Elon, at Troy, vs Kansas

With this opening schedule, the loss of offensive coordinator Kurt Roper will be minimized as his replacement will have time to ease into position. Keep an eye on the Troy game as they played the Blue Devils close in 2013, only losing by seven in Durham.


Hardest Schedules

Clemson

Opponents: at Georgia, South Carolina State, at FSU

Even though there is a cupcake stuck in the middle, it doesn't get much tougher than this. Florida State has won the last three games in this series in Tallahassee against Clemson. Georgia will be looking to return the favor from last year when the Tigers won by three in Death Valley. From a betting perspective, remember that Georgia is 2-7-2 ATS in it's last 11 games and both Clemson and Georgia have a recent history of going over on points.

Georgia

Opponents: vs Clemson, at South Carolina, vs Troy

The opener against Clemson will have a potential impact on the college football playoff and the last two times Georgia traveled to Columbia to play South Carolina they came up short. One thing to keep in mind is that Georgia gets a week off after the Clemson game while the Gamecocks will host East Carolina.

South Carolina

Opponents: vs Texas A&M, vs East Carolina, vs Georgia

One thing Carolina's first three opponents have in common is that they can score points in a hurry and that will be something to watch with the Gamecocks losing Connor Shaw this year. Another thing to watch is the ECU game as it's a classic trap game stuffed in between two conference games with one of those being a rivalry game. Don't forget that ECU beat two ACC teams last year and only lost to Virginia Tech by five.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 1

Thur, Aug. 28

TEXAS A&M at S CAROLINA, 6:00 PM ET
TEXAS A&M: 12-30 ATS as road dogs
S CAROLINA: 11-4 Under on Thursdays

WAKE FOREST at LA MONROE, 7:00 PM ET
WAKE FOREST: 22-39 ATS in non-conference games
LA MONROE: 42-25 Over as underdogs

TULANE at TULSA, 8:00 PM ET
TULANE: 6-0 ATS as dogs of 3.5-10 points
TULSA: 5-12 Under in first two weeks of the season

OLE MISS vs. at BOISE ST, 8:00 PM - Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA ET
OLE MISS: 14-5 ATS on turf
BOISE ST: 5-1 ATS dogs on neutral field

TEMPLE at VANDERBILT, 9:15 PM ET
TEMPLE: 8-1 ATS as an underdog
VANDERBILT: 21-12 Under in first month of season

RUTGERS vs. at WASHINGTON ST, 10:00 PM - CenturyLink Field - Seattle, WA ET
RUTGERS: 29-15 ATS away in non-conference games
WASHINGTON ST: 5-1 Over favorites on a neutral field


Fri, Aug. 29

BYU at CONNECTICUT, 7:00 PM ET
BYU: 64-42 Under in first half of the season
CONNECTICUT: 23-9 ATS as a home underdog

BOWLING GREEN at W KENTUCKY, 7:30 PM ET
BOWLING GREEN: 13-4 Under as favorites
W KENTUCKY: 10-2 ATS in first half of the season

COLORADO ST vs. at COLORADO, 9:00 PM - Sports Authority Field - Denver, CO ET
COLORADO ST.: 4-8 ATS vs Pac-12 teams
COLORADO: 30-16 Over on the road vs non-conference opponents

UTSA at HOUSTON, 9:00 PM ET
UTSA: 6-0 Under in road games
HOUSTON: 8-3 ATS at home when total is 52-56 points

UNLV at ARIZONA, 10:30 PM ET
UNLV: 5-1 Over in first month of the season
ARIZONA: 46-75 ATS as favorites


Sat, Aug. 30

PENN ST vs. at UCF, 8:30 AM - Croke Park - Dublin Ireland ET
PENN ST: 34-15 Under in first month of the season
UCF: 16-6 ATS in first two weeks of the season

OHIO ST at NAVY, 12:00 PM - M&T Bank Stadium - Baltimore, MD ET
OHIO ST: 46-28 ATS as road favorites
NAVY: 8-1 Under at home

UCLA at VIRGINIA, 12:00 PM ET
UCLA: 24-11 ATS in first two weeks of the season
VIRGINIA: 3-10 ATS in first half of the season

APPALACHIAN ST at MICHIGAN, 12:00 PM ET
APPALACHIAN ST: N/A
MICHIGAN: 4-1 Over at home when total is 49.5-56 points

TROY at UAB, 12:00 PM ET
TROY: 31-11 Over in non-conference games
UAB: 22-10 ATS as home dogs

CALIFORNIA at NORTHWESTERN, 3:30 PM ET
CALIFORNIA: 15-4 Over in first two weeks of the season
NORTHWESTERN: 5-1 ATST in August games

GA SOUTHERN at NC STATE, 12:30 PM ET
GA SOUTHERN: N/A
NC STATE: 9-1 Under as favorites

FLA ATLANTIC at NEBRASKA, 3:30 PM ET
FLA ATLANTIC: 10-2 ATS as road dogs
NEBRASKA: 4-0 Over first two weeks of the season

BOSTON COLLEGE at MASSACHUSETTS, 3:00 PM ET
BOSTON COLLEGE: 2-10 ATS in road games
MASSACHUSETTS: N/A

MARSHALL at MIAMI OHIO, 3:30 PM ET
MARSHALL: 16-7 Over in all games
MIAMI OHIO: 5-15 ATS as underdogs

RICE at NOTRE DAME, 3:30 PM ET
RICE: 39-19 Over in road games
NOTRE DAME: 44-65 ATS as home favorites

ALABAMA vs. at W VIRGINIA, 3:30 PM - Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA ET
ALABAMA: 5-1 Over in games on turf
W VIRGINIA: 5-15 ATS on neutral field

ARKANSAS at AUBURN, 4:00 PM ET
ARKANSAS: 33-14 Over as road dogs
AUBURN: 8-1 ATS in non-conference games

CLEMSON at GEORGIA, 5:30 PM ET
CLEMSON: 27-13 ATS dogs of 3.5-10 points
GEORGIA: 7-0 Over in first month of the season

OHIO U at KENT ST, 6:00 PM ET
OHIO U: 6-0 Under in first half of the season
KENT ST: 1-5 ATS home when total is 49.5-52 points

LOUISIANA TECH at OKLAHOMA, 7:00 PM ET
LOUISIANA TECH: 9-2 Under in last 11 games
OKLAHOMA: 8-1 ATS when total is 49.5-56 points

W MICHIGAN at PURDUE, 12:00 PM ET
W MICHIGAN: 6-16 ATS on Saturday
PURDUE: 83-59 Under of grass field

IDAHO at FLORIDA, 7:00 PM ET
IDAHO: 6-15 ATS as underdogs
FLORIDA: 15-6 Under on grass field

FRESNO ST at USC, 7:30 PM ET
FRESNO ST: 16-6 ATS on Saturday
USC: 12-3 Under at home in first two weeks of season

SOUTHERN MISS at MISSISSIPPI ST, 7:30 PM ET
SOUTHERN MISS: 14-5 Over as underdogs
MISSISSIPPI ST: 0-7 ATS in August games

WASHINGTON at HAWAII, 10:30 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 5-1 ATS as road favorites of 14.5 or more points
HAWAII: 26-12 Over as home dogs

FLORIDA ST vs. at OKLAHOMA ST, 8:00 PM - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX ET
FLORIDA ST: 14-4 Under as neutral site favorite
OKLAHOMA ST: 35-20 ATS when total is 63 or more points

NORTH TEXAS at TEXAS, 8:00 PM ET
NORTH TEXAS: 12-1 ATS when total is 49.5-56 points
TEXAS: 5-1 Under when total is 49.5-56 points

UTEP at NEW MEXICO, 8:00 PM ET
UTEP: 0-9 ATS as underdogs
NEW MEXICO: 8-3 Over in home games

LSU vs. at WISCONSIN, 9:00 PM - Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX ET
LSU: 6-0 ATS on neutral field with total 49.5-56 points
WISCONSIN: N/A


Sun, Aug. 31

UTAH ST at TENNESSEE, 7:00 PM ET
UTAH ST: 20-6 ATS in all games last 3 years
TENNESSEE: 8-1 Over in first half of the season

SMU at BAYLOR, 7:30 PM ET
SMU: 28-46 ATS in first month of the season
BAYLOR: 21-9 Over as home favorites


Mon, Sept. 1

MIAMI at LOUISVILLE, 8:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 35-15 Under when total is 49.5-56 points
LOUISVILLE: 15-4 Under as home favorite of 7 or less points

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF line watch: Trojans backers should act fast

Spread to bet now

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. USC Trojans (-21)

Southern Cal opened as 22-point home favorites, but the line has come down to a favorable number to back the Trojans. These two teams closed last season by playing in the Las Vegas Bowl and USC cruised to a 45-20 win. Fresno State lost QB Derek Carr to graduation along with five other offensive starters. With their best team in over a decade (11-2), the Bulldogs were no match for the Trojans.

USC has a new head coach in Steve Sarkisian, and reports out of Los Angeles say the team is focused and motivated for the upcoming season. The Trojans have a wealth of talent on hand, and their defense will be outstanding. This is a big statement game for the Trojans, and it comes against a team they simply dominate at every position. Lay the three touchdowns now before the sharp bettors take out the good number.


Spread to wait on

Arkansas Razorbacks (+20.5) at Auburn Tigers

Auburn is currently a 20.5-point home favorite over Arkansas, but this line is likely to go higher as we get closer to kickoff. Public bettors often remember what they last saw, and that was Auburn a minute away from winning the National Championship last season.

Arkansas slogged through a miserable 3-9 season last year; the Razorbacks were 0-8 in SEC play, including a 35-17 home loss to Auburn. But in their second year under head coach Bret Bielema, Arkansas will be a much improved team. We expect this line to reach the important number of 21, and at that price and preferably with another half point, we suggest taking Arkansas in this game.


Total to watch

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (57.5)

This total opened at 58, and early money has come in on the Under. Clemson has to replace a lot of their potent offense of a season ago (40.4 points per game), and they will be starting an inexperienced QB under center. Clemson’s defense returns seven starters from a unit that only gave up 22.2 points per game in 2013.

Georgia’s offense is also an unknown commodity, and that unit has been fighting nagging injuries during camp. The Bulldogs’ defense has the potential to be one of the best in the country, and they should limit Clemson’s production in this game. This total is quite high considering the makeup of both teams, and it will likely continue to drop as we get closer to game day.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday's games
Two new starting QBs in A&M-South Carolina game, but Gamercocks have senior QB Thompson who has started three times, played in 14, so he has edge in experience. Post-Manziel era starts with no experience at QB for Aggies- they're 5-10-1 vs spread as road underdog since '07. SC is 13-8 as home favorite since '11. Both teams have four starters back on offensive line.

ULM (+2.5) won 21-19 at Wake Forest LY, outgaining Deacons by 99 yards; not often a BCS school visits the Sun Belt. Warhawks may use transfer Thomas at QB- he played against Wake LY when he was at NC State. U:M is 14-12 as dog under Berry, 2-2 at home. Wake Forest has a new coach, is starting true freshman QB; they're 6-8 as road favorite over last decade.

Tulsa won eight of last nine games with Tulane, winning last four here, all by 28+ points., but Green Wave upset them 14-7 (+3) LY. Tulsa was 3-9 LY after being 29-11 the three years before that- they're 17-14 as a home favorite since '08, have 10 starters back on defense. Tulane has lot of options at QB, including Joe Montana's son; they're 13-6-1 as a dog under Johnson, 5-4-1 at home.

Boise State is 112-18 over last 10 years, 61-3 on blue turf, but they have new coach (8-5 in one year at Arkansas St); Broncos are home dog for first time since '05- they were 4-3 as road dog under Petersen. Long road trip for Ole Miss, which has SEC opener vs Vandy next; Rebels have a senior QB with 26 starts, nine starters back on defense- they covered 8 of last 10 non-SEC tilts. Boise has senior QB with only 5 career starts.

Temple-Vanderbilt haven't met since '06. Owls were 2-10 LY but 7-1 vs spread as an underdog- they've got 8 starters back on defense but lost 4 of 5 starters on OL. Vandy has new coach (from Stanford), four starters back on OL, soph QB has 3 career starts. Temple is 15-6 as road dogs since '08. Commodores were 9-3 as home favorites in last three years under Franklin (now at Penn St).

Third year at Washington State should yield results for Mike Leach, who has OL that weighs 20 pounds more per man than LY. Coogs have senior QB with 19 starts, but no senior starters on OL- they're 5-3 in last eight games as home favorite. Long road trip for Rutgers; they're 7-3 in last 10 tries as road dog. Knights have senior QB with 18 starts, all five starters back on OL, three of whom are seniors.


Friday's games
BYU lost its first road game the last four years and were favored in last two; Cougars have junior QB with 15 career starts- they're 8-12 as road favorites since '08, were 0-3 LY. Dogs covered 12 of their last 16 games on road. UConn has new coach, three QBs back from LY who all threw 125+ passes LY- since '04, they're 19-4 vs spread as home underdogs. Dogs covered 16 of UConn's last 20 home games.

Bowling Green-Western Kentucky haven't met since '07; both clubs have new coaches. Hilltoppers are on 3rd coach in three years. WKU is 9-4 as a home underdog since '09; they covered 12 of last 14 tries as underdogs, but lost 7 starters on defense, have senior QB with eleven career starts. Falcons are 12-3 as road faves since '07; they have 7 starters back on defense, 3 on OL and junior QB with 13 starts.

Colorado won eight of last 11 games vs Colorado State; dogs are 10-6 vs spread in series, but Buffs' last four series wins are all by 14+ points. In LY's game, Buffs outgained State by 214 yards- they're 3-0 as favorites under MacIntyre, have soph QB with 7 starts. Rams have senior QB; he has 22 starts, led State to first bowl in five years LY (won 48-45). CSU lost 4 starters on OL, is 6-7 as an underdog under McElwain.

Tex-San Antonio is coached by Larry Coker, old Miami coach; they are 7-5 as road underdogs last two years; this is only their 4th year as team. Roadrunners have 10 starters back on both sides of ball, but their QB has not started yet. Houston (-2) beat UTSA 59-28 LY; Coogs had +5 ratio in turnovers, yardage was even. Houston is 20-7 as home favorites since '07, 6-4 under Levine- their soph QB started 11 games last year.

Arizona (-10) pounded UNLV 58-13 LY, running ball for 397 yards, but RichRod has been complaining this summer about lack of QB. Wildcats have four starters back on OL to protect whoever new QB is- they're 5-6 as home favorites under Rodriguez. Rebels got to first bowl in 13 years LY; they've got 13 starters back, junior QB with 15 starts, 4 starters are back on OL- they are 6-2 as road dog last two years.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Texas A&M at South Carolina
The Gamecocks kick off the 2014 season Thursday night with conference battle against a Texas A&M team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Thursday games. South Carolina is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Gamecocks favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-10). Here are all of this week's games.

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27

Game 301-302: Abilene Christian at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Abilene Christian 51.889; Georgia State 64.659
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 12 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


THURSDAY, AUGUST 28

Game 133-134: Texas A&M at South Carolina (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 99.153; South Carolina 114.054
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 15; 62
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 10; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-10); Over

Game 135-136: Wake Forest at UL-Monroe (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 78.614; UL-Monroe 79.966
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+2 1/2); Under

Game 137-138: Tulane at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 77.476; Tulsa 68.809
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 8 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 5; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+5); Over

Game 139-140: Boise State vs. Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 87.464; Mississippi 100.444
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 13; 62
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 10; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-10); Over

Game 141-142: Temple at Vanderbilt (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 81.614; Vanderbilt 100.447
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 19; 47
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 14; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-14); Under

Game 143-144: Rutgers at Washington State (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 82.319; Washington State 88.474
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 6; 55
Vegas Line: Washington State by 8 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+8 1/2); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Game 303-304: Eastern Illinois at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 86.194; Minnesota 95.596
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 305-306: Howard at Akron (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Howard 52.988; Akron 77.207
Dunkel Line: Akron by 24 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 307-308: Presbyterian at Northern Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Presbyterian 39.602; Northern Illinois 93.029
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 53 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 309-310: Chattanooga at Central Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 66.348; Central Michigan 78.674
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 12 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 311-312: Idaho State at Utah (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 44.567; Utah 93.337
Dunkel Line: Utah by 49; 72
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 313-314: Cal Poly at New Mexico State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 76.408; New Mexico State 60.995
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 15 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 315-316: North Dakota at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 49.880; San Jose State 84.665
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 35; 53
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 317-318: Weber State at Arizona State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 53.161; Arizona State 101.846
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 48 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


FRIDAY, AUGUST 29

Game 145-146: BYU at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 99.185; Connecticut 79.643
Dunkel Line: BYU by 19 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: BYU by 16 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-16 1/2); Under

Game 147-148: Bowling Green at Western Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 93.821; Western Kentucky 88.864
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 5; 62
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 8; 56
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+8); Over

Game 149-150: Colorado State vs. Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 93.271; Colorado 79.881
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 13 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3; 65
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+3); Over

Game 151-152: TX-San Antonio at Houston (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 82.286; Houston 96.308
Dunkel Line: Houston by 14; 61
Vegas Line: Houston by 11; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-11); Over

Game 153-154: UNLV at Arizona (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 74.926; Arizona 101.600
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 26 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona by 23 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-23 1/2); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Game 319-320: Villanova at Syracuse (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 72.235; Syracuse 92.956
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 20 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 321-322: Jacksonville State at Michigan State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 78.628; Michigan State 116.502
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 38; 65
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


SATURDAY, AUGUST 30

Game 155-156: Penn State vs. Central Florida (8:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 97.129; Central Florida 95.683
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+2); Over

Game 157-158: Ohio State vs. Navy (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 103.518; Navy 93.255
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 10 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 14; 63
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+14); Under

Game 159-160: UCLA at Virginia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 112.451; Virginia 75.518
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 37; 53
Vegas Line: UCLA by 21 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-21 1/2); Under

Game 161-162: Appalachian State at Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 64.119; Michigan 101.598
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 37 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Michigan by 34; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-34); Over

Game 163-164: Troy at UAB (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 64.974; UAB 67.818
Dunkel Line: UAB by 3; 61
Vegas Line: Troy by 1; 66
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+1); Under

Game 165-166: California at Northwestern (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 69.851; Northwestern 89.082
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 19; 57
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 10 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-10 1/2); Under

Game 167-168: Georgia Southern at North Carolina State (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 72.651; North Carolina State 78.883
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 6; 59
Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 22 1.2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+22 1/2); Over

Game 169-170: Florida Atlantic at Nebraska (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 74.235; Nebraska 100.184
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 26; 47
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 23; 51
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-23); Under

Game 171-172: Boston College at Massachusetts (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 80.455; Massachusetts 68.683
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 12; 46
Vegas Line: Boston College by 15; 49
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+15); Under

Game 173-174: Marshall at Miami (OH) (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 89.810; Miami (OH) 54.604
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 35; 56
Vegas Line: Marshall by 23 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-23 1/2); Under

Game 175-176: Rice at Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 84.848; Notre Dame 100.579
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 15 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 21; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+21); Under

Game 177-178: West Virginia vs. Alabama (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 79.888; Alabama 109.775
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 30; 51
Vegas Line: Alabama by 26; 55
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-26); Under

Game 179-180: Arkansas at Auburn (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 90.408; Auburn 107.763
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 17 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: Auburn by 21 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+21 1/2); Over

Game 181-182: Clemson at Georgia (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 97.729; Georgia 107.908
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 10; 63
Vegas Line: Georgia by 7 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-7 1/2); Over

Game 183-184: Ohio at Kent State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 76.881; Kent State 75.519
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 1 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Kent State by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+3); Over

Game 185-186: Louisiana Tech at Oklahoma (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 64.045; Oklahoma 116.205
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 52; 58
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 38; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-38); Over

Game 187-188: Western Michigan at Purdue (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 63.747; Purdue 72.840
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Purdue by 12 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+12 1/2); Under

Game 189-190: Idaho at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 54.164; Florida 92.427
Dunkel Line: Florida by 38 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Florida by 34 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-34 1/2); Under

Game 191-192: Fresno State at USC (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 89.047; USC 104.750
Dunkel Line: USC by 15 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: USC by 22; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+22); Over

Game 193-194: Southern Mississippi at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 65.789; Mississippi State 103.935
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 38; 59
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 30 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-30 1/2); Over

Game 195-196: Washington at Hawaii (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 97.851; Hawaii 84.021
Dunkel Line: Washington by 14; 66
Vegas Line: Washington by 16 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+16 1/2); Over

Game 197-198: Florida State vs. Oklahoma State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 123.656; Oklahoma State 101.941
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 21 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: Florida State by 17 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-17 1/2); Over

Game 199-200: North Texas at Texas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 82.333; Texas 96.833
Dunkel Line: Texas by 14 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Texas by 24 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+24 1/2); Over

Game 201-202: UTEP at New Mexico (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 74.217; New Mexico 73.094
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 1; 61
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 7 1/2; 66
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+7 1/2); Under

Game 203-204: Wisconsin vs. LSU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 100.536; LSU 107.407
Dunkel Line: LSU by 7; 54
Vegas Line: LSU by 4; 50
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-4); Over

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Game 323-324: North Dakota State at Iowa State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 103.550; Iowa State 88.324
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 15; 47
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 325-326: Delaware at Pittsburgh (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 64.374; Pittsburgh 92.162
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 28; 57
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 327-328: Tennessee Martin at Kentucky (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Martin 61.439; Kentucky 79.163
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 17 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 329-330: Youngstown State at Illinois (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 66.022; Illinois 83.904
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 18; 57
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 331-332: Indiana State at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 46.519; Indiana 90.216
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 43 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 333-334: Northern Iowa at Iowa (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 74.407; Iowa 103.301
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 29; 60
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 335-336: James Madison at Maryland (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 62.371; Maryland 88.754
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 26 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 337-338: Wofford at Georgia Tech (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 56.106; Georgia Tech 96.524
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 40; 54
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 339-340: Colgate at Ball State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colgate 41.301; Ball State 86.420
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 45; 77
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 341-342: Nicholls State at Air Force (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nicholls State 50.621; Air Force 65.820
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 15; 55
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 343-344: Southern Utah at Nevada (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 58.141; Nevada 84.266
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 26; 52
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 345-346: William & Mary at Virginia Tech (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 66.459; Virginia Tech 89.770
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 23 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 347-348: Duquesne at Buffalo (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 50.956; Buffalo 80.387
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 29 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 349-350: South Dakota State at Missouri (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 73.863; Missouri 113.234
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 39 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 351-352: Montana at Wyoming (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 70.946; Wyoming 69.697
Dunkel Line: Montana by 1 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 353-354: Portland State at Oregon State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 64.245; Oregon State 97.801
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 33 1/2; 73
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 355-356: UC Davis at Stanford (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis 68.729; Stanford 118.086
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 49 1/2; 73
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 357-358: Elon at Duke (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 50.764; Duke 97.687
Dunkel Line: Duke by 47; 51
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 359-360: Liberty at North Carolina (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Liberty 69.590; North Carolina 103.207
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 33 1/2; 74
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 361-362: Morgan State at Eastern Michigan (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 47.793; Eastern Michigan 54.331
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 6 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 363-364: Austin Peay at Memphis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 34.636; Memphis 69.232
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 34 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 365-366: Western Carolina at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 48.330; South Florida 71.280
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 23; 68
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 367-368: Samford at TCU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 56.130; TCU 94.506
Dunkel Line: TCU by 38 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 369-370: Central Arkansas at Texas Tech (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Arkansas 67.370; Texas Tech 98.756
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 31 1/2; 77
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 371-372: New Hampshire at Toledo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Hampshire 77.953; Toledo 85.241
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 7 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 373-374: Northern Arizona at San Diego State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 67.690; San Diego State 88.545
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 21; 62
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 375-376: Montana State at Arkansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 62.407; Arkansas State 84.714
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 22 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 377-378: Southern at UL-Lafayette (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern 48.441; UL-Lafayette 77.246
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 29; 75
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 379-380: AR-Pine Bluff at Texas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Pine Bluff 35.698; Texas State 67.145
Dunkel Line: Texas State by 31 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 381-382: Bethune-Cookman at Florida International (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bethune-Cookman 58.531; Florida International 56.760
Dunkel Line: Bethune-Cookman by 2; 45
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 383-384: Savannah State at Middle Tennessee State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 30.283; Middle Tennessee State 80.375
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 50; 74
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 385-386: Hampton at Old Dominion (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 47.550; Old Dominion 66.778
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 19; 82
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 387-388: Stephen F. Austin at Kansas State (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 48.228; Kansas State 102.676
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 54 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 389-390: NC Central at East Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC Central 43.392; East Carolina 86.149
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 43; 78
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 391-392: South Dakota at Oregon (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 62.286; Oregon 106.764
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 44 1/2; 73
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


SUNDAY, AUGUST 31

Game 205-206: Utah State at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 96.112; Tennessee 89.997
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 6; 47
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+6 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: SMU at Baylor (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 79.813; Baylor 115.745
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 36; 70
Vegas Line: Baylor by 32 1/2; 75
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-32 1/2); Under


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

Game 209-210: Miami (FL) at Louisville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 92.311; Louisville 97.730
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 5 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3); Over

[StarDust Bum]

Five college football teams on upset alert in Week 1

Every year we see upsets during the first week of the season. Here are five games to keep on upset alert during the opening week of the college football season.

Portland State Vikings at Oregon State Beavers (-31)

If history is any indication, then Oregon State is in trouble in their opener. Last season, the Beavers lost to Eastern Washington 49-46. In 2011, they fell to Sacramento State 29-28. Portland State lost four games last season but did play Cal close (lost 37-30) and their biggest loss from 2013 was 28 points so even if they don't pull the upset, they could cover the spread.

Likelihood of upset: Small


Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5)

With the exception of 2012, under Brian Kelly, the Irish have been bitten by the upset bug. In 2010 it was Navy and Tulsa. In 2011 it was USF. In 2013 it was Pitt. Notre Dame is in the midst of an internal investigation into academic misconduct and you have to wonder if their attention will be elsewhere when they face off with the defending Conference USA Champions.

Likelihood of upset: Medium


California Golden Bears at Northwestern Wildcats (-10)

In 2013, Cal was flat out awful. Last year, Cal lost over 50 starters to injury, they broke in a new QB and they had a coaching change so they had to adjust to a change in schemes. On the flip side, Northwestern just found out that their top receiver, Christian Jones, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Both of these teams are coming off of very disappointing 2013 seasons and it was be an interesting game to watch.

Likelihood of upset: Medium


Utah State Aggies at Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)

The Vols lost every player on their offensive and defensive line. They also just named Justin Worley their starting quarterback, which seems like a disappointment based on his past performance. Can talent at RB and WR overcome the question-marks the Vols have? Another big factor in this game will be Utah State's star quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who will be returning from injury.

Likelihood of upset: XL


Youngstown State at Illinois (-10)

Tim Beckman's era at Illinois has been a huge disappointment through two years. The Illini have gone 6-18 overall and 1-15 in Big Ten play. In Illinois only game against an FCS opponent in 2013, they won by just eight points. Youngstown State went 8-4 last season and isn't a team to be taken lightly. Remember 2012 when the Penguins went to Pitt and came away with a 31-17 victory?

Likelihood of upset: Jumbo

[StarDust Bum]

125 key betting notes for 125 college football teams

College football is almost here. And, if you spent most of your summer partying like a college kid instead of studying like one, you could be feeling the crunch as you prepare your Week 1 wagers.

AAC

Central Florida Knights (2013: 12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Yes, the Knights lose significant talent from last year's squad, including QB Blake Bortles. But the cupboard is by no means bare. George O'Leary has built this program to last,and the Knights should find themselves at the top of the AAC heap if everything goes according to plan in 2014.

Cincinnati Bearcats (2013: 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The schedule should allow for that with three of their first four games coming at home, against beatable opponents (the lone road game comes at Ohio State). Expectations aren't all that high this year and that could be a good thing.

Connecticut Huskies (2013: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Forty-one year old Bob Diaco takes over the team and things can only get better, right? After finishing last season on a high note, and with plenty of returning talent, the Huskies could make some noise - provided they can catch a few breaks here in 2014.

Houston Cougars (2013: 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Simply put, the Cougars were one of the best bets in the entire nation last year - a feat that teams are rarely able to repeat. The betting marketplace will likely catch up with Houston in 2014. Will the offense be able to mix things up enough to keep defenses honest?

Tulane Green Wave (2013: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Losing WR Ryan Grant hurts immensely. Not only is Grant gone, but there's no sure thing at quarterback. Defensively, the Green Wave always seem to be facing an uphill battle and 2014 should be no different.

Memphis Tigers (2013: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

There are too many question marks on offense, not just at the quarterback position, but all over the field. Maybe this is the year we start to see progress. But I believe too much is going to be asked of the Tigers ground game and they simply don't have the horses to thrive in that regard.

East Carolina Pirates (2013: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)

For those that have followed this program in recent years, it should come as no surprise that the offense will once again pave the way to any success. The duo of QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy will be one to watch throughout the 2014 campaign.

South Florida Bulls (2013: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Don't be fooled by last year's poor record, this is a program that is headed in the right direction under the guidance of Willie Taggart. The Bulls played their best football near the end of last season and have a roster loaded with players ready to take a big leap forward in 2014.

SMU Mustangs (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

After a truly mediocre 2013 campaign, the Mustangs aren't going to grab much attention from bettors, and that's not a bad thing. June Jones has the personnel in place to get the offense humming again, even with the departure of QB Garrett Gilbert.

Temple Owls (2013: 2-10 SU, 8-4 ATS)

I hate to oversimplify things, but the bottom line is that the Owls aren’t going to win many games. If you like hoping and praying for backdoor covers, by all means, get behind the Owls. But expectations are low for a reason again this year.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2013: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)

After going through some serious growing pains in 2013, there's no reason to expect an immediate rebound in 2014. Losing three offensive linemen and two running backs will further stall the progress of this unit and ultimately keep the Hurricane from breaking through.


ACC

Florida State Seminoles (2013: 14-0 SU, 11-3 ATS)

The two-time defending ACC champions are the odds on favorite to win a third straight title, and for good reason. Even after winning a national title, the sky is still the limit for this program. They’re loaded with returning talent – including Heisman winner QB Jameis Winston - and the rest of the ACC should be at least a step behind.

Louisville Cardinals (2013: 12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The winning pedigree is firmly entrenched in this program and it enters the new season with a big chip on its shoulder, as it certainly draws its share of critics. The cupboard is never bare at Louisville and new head coach Bobby Petrino will have his squad motivated.

Pittsburgh Panthers (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Is there enough talent on board to compete with the big boys? The Panthers are at least a year away from making a big splash. Putting points on the board consistently could be an issue against the conference’s better defenses.

North Carolina State Wolfpack (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Things are looking up for the Wolfpack and they should have an upset or two in them once ACC play begins. Injuries played a big role in their struggles a year ago. But as long as they can stay healthy, they can make a major leap and quite possibly win five or six games.

Syracuse Orange (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Most are down on the Orange, even after they’ve reached a Bowl game in three of the last four years. The program will be a little more settled in the second year of the post-Doug Marrone era and another winning ATS mark is well within reach under the guidance of the underrated Scott Shafer.

Boston College Eagles (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Few were paying much attention, but the Eagles enjoyed a nice bounce-back campaign a year ago and are poised to take another step forward in Steve Addazio’s second year at the helm. How many bettors will be interested in supporting the Eagles without star RB Andre Williams? The lighter the bandwagon, the more value we’ll likely see.

Clemson Tigers (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

If Florida State slips up, Clemson will be right there to take over the ACC throne. The Tigers will once again field an elite squad, thanks to stellar recruiting in recent years. With a number of key pieces moving on to greener pastures, bettors might not be so quick to back the Tigers this year, providing some early season value.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2013: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)

This is still a program that has its work cut out for it personnel wise. Any success this year would be considered a bonus, as the Deacons are probably looking at another two or three years before they can make any sort of splash in an extremely tough conference.

Virginia Cavaliers (2013: 2-10 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

There’s no question the Cavaliers are going to be an ACC bottom feeder this year, and probably next year as well. If you don’t have a high pain threshold, you’ll probably want to steer clear of a team that won’t put many points on the board on a weekly basis.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2013: 7-6 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

This is a year for the Yellow Jackets to make a move, as the schedule affords them such an opportunity. Of their first 10 contests, only two will come against Top 30 teams from a year ago. I don’t mind supporting teams that bettors aren’t all that high on and Georgia Tech falls into that category in 2014.

Duke Blue Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 11-3 ATS)

Duke’s schedule starts rather light, with four very winnable games right off the bat. In fact, it never really reached a fever pitch, meaning the potential is there for the Blue Devils to repeat last year’s 10-win performance. The offense should continue to roll along, with continuity where they need it most.

North Carolina Tar Heels (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

North Carolina’s defense remains a weakness and that’s a problem in the ACC. While the offense will be explosive, it isn’t without a few question marks. After an extended run of success, opponents will most definitely gunning for the Tar Heels in 2014.

Miami Hurricanes (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)

The Hurricanes have seen their win total improve in each of the last three years. Turning that trick for a fourth consecutive season is a tall task to be sure. The quarterback position needs to be settled - never a good thing. Neither is replacing a pair of anchors on the offensive line.

Virginia Tech Hokies (2013: 8-5 SU, 4-8-1 ATS)

The Hokies have the element of surprise working for them coming off two bad seasons (by Blacksburg standards). Even without a proven quarterback, Virginia Tech is still capable of contending for the Coastal Division title. The defense could be downright nasty and if the Hokies catch a few breaks, they could shake up the ACC.


Big 12

Oklahoma Sooners (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)

The overwhelming favorites to win the conference are also legitimate National Championship contenders. Oklahoma gets all of its toughest games at home this season, and have the best defense in the Big 12 - one of the best stop units in all of college football.

Baylor Bears (2013: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Baylor’s offense is dynamic and virtually unstoppable. Quarterback Bryce Petty returns as do most of the skill players from last year’s nation-leading offense that averaged 52.4 points and 618.8 yards per game. Baylor head coach Art Briles has led the Bears to a 30-10 record over the last three seasons.

Texas Longhorns (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The Mack Brown era is over as Charlie Strong comes over from Louisville. Texas was stale under Brown and the coaching change is definitely a positive. With 15 returning starters, Strong has the pieces to make Texas relevant again this season. The Longhorns’ defense will keep them competitive in every game.

Kansas State Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Kansas State has a lot of momentum after winning six of its last seven games to closeout 2013. The Wildcats will have a potent offense with QB Jake Waters and all of the playmakers returning. Bill Snyder rarely gets out-coached and with lesser expectations this season, Kansas State will surprise.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

The team returns just eight total starters and its road schedule is brutal in conference play. Trips to TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma will prove to be too much for the Cowboys to overcome, especially late in the season when injuries and fatigue take their toll.

TCU Horned Frogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

TCU’s defense returns nine starters from a unit that was one of the best in the Big 12 last season. The Horned Frogs will be even better this season with experience, especially since their best players return. Despite eight losses in 2013, TCU was competitive in six of those games while losing by 10 points or less.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Texas Tech closed the 2013 regular season by losing five straight games. The defense allowed 38 points or more in every one of those games. The defensive line is inexperienced with JuCo transfers and the overall youth on defense will limit Texas Tech’s season.

West Virginia Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS)

West Virginia plays one of the toughest schedules in the country and it’s going to be extremely difficult for WVU to finish with a winning record. The Mountaineers open with Alabama in Atlanta and then face Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, Texas, and Kansas State over a 10-week stretch.

Iowa State Cyclones (2013: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Iowa State has a lot of positives working in its favor. Expectations are extremely low in Ames, so the Cyclones may catch some teams by surprise. The offense is in “remodeling mode” according to new coordinator Mark Mangino. Iowa State has 15 returning starters and its toughest games are at home. Five of its nine losses last season came by eight points or less.

Kansas Jayhawks (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

The Jayhawks have been embarrassingly bad on offense the last two years. They averaged just 18.3 points per game in 2012 and 15.3 points per game in 2013. The Big 12 has some strong defensive teams and unless Kansas’ offense improves dramatically, they’ll finish in the cellar once again in 2014.


Big Ten

Illinois Fighting Illini (2013: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Illini lost three key receivers, so they are not riddled with veterans who can help Lunt ease into his new role. On the defensive side of the ball, Illinois recorded a total of 15 sacks last season. The unit returns eight starters, but that might not be a good thing.

Indiana Hoosiers (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

The Hoosiers are consistently a juggernaut on offense and nothing short of a disaster on defense. They allowed more than 38 points and 500 yards per game last season. A new defensive coordinator is obviously a wise move, but a transition to a 3-4 scheme may take some time. Indiana has only six home games after having eight in 2013.

Iowa Hawkeyes (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Iowa is on the rise after a four-win improvement to 8-5 last season. The team returns quarterback Jake Rudock, leading rusher Mark Weisman, leading receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley, and stud left tackle Brandon Scherff. The Hawkeyes do not have Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State on the 2014 schedule.

Maryland Terrapins (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

The ACC was bad last season outside of national champion Florida State, which may explain Maryland’s win total but also could leave the team unprepared for the spike in both competition and ruggedness in the Big Ten. The offensive line is somewhat depleted and the schedule includes dates with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan.

Michigan Wolverines (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Head coach Brady Hoke managed to hire offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier away from Alabama. Nussmeier will have Devin Gardner back in action for the quarterback’s last hurrah in Ann Arbor. On defense, the Wolverines return all three starting linebackers and welcome prized cornerback recruit Jabrill Peppers.

Michigan State Spartans (2013: 13-1 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)

Michigan State is coming off a dream season in which it won the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl. Quarterback Connor Cook (MVP of both the conference champion and the bowl game) is back, as is running back Jeremy Langford. The Spartans also boast one of the best duos of defensive ends in the nation.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (2013: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Philip Nelson transferred and quarterback Mitch Leidner has minimal starting experience. Wide receiver is likely to be a problem following the departure of Derrick Engel. Kill’s health issues are also a concern. Minnesota has to play Michigan and Ohio State from the Big Ten East.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Quarterback Tommy Armstrong has a year of experience under his belt and he has two of the top skill players in the conference at his disposal in running back Ameer Abdullah and receiver Kenny Bell. Defensive end Randy Gregory led the Big Ten in sacks last season.

Northwestern Wildcats (2013: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Northwestern went just 5-7 last season, but it lost two games in overtime and dropped two more by three points each. Seven starters return on defense and the offense once again features QB Trevor Siemian and RB Venric Mark. The Big Ten schedule lacks both Michigan State and Ohio State.

Ohio State Buckeyes (2013: 12-2 SU, 6-7-1 ATS)

Braxton Miller is just the one person this team cannot lose and feel that they will not struggle to win 10 games this season. Their schedule is still favorable but it will be difficult for them to win four Big 10 road games without the two-time offensive conference players of the year.

Penn State Nittany Lions (2013: 7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Penn State is still under NCAA sanctions, so depth is a problem and the team is not eligible for the postseason. Franklin has a tough job ahead of him for those two reasons. The Nittany Lions also have only one healthy returning starter on the offensive line.

Purdue Boilermakers (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

The Boilermakers were a horrendous 1-11 in their first year under head coach Darrell Hazell. Purdue’s best player in 2013 was punter Cody Webster. The offensive line remains a huge concern.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2013: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

The Scarlet Knights will be making a tough transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big Ten. There is already a quarterback controversy with Gary Nova and Chris Laviano. Rutgers’ defense was historically bad last season (it also has a new coordinator on that side of the ball) and the schedule is the toughest in school history.

Wisconsin Badgers (2013: 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)

With four starters on the offensive line returning and Melvin Gordon at running back, Wisconsin should boast one of the best ground games in the nation. The schedule is phenomenal. The Badgers’ toughest road game is at Iowa and they won’t face either Ohio State or Michigan State.


Conference USA

Marshall Thundering Herd (2013: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS)

Marshall is the clear-cut favorite in C-USA East this season, and the favorites to win the overall conference championship. The Thundering Herd return 14 starters, including quarterback Rakeem Cato. They play an extremely easy schedule and there’s a real possibility they go undefeated in 2014.

UTSA Roadrunners (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

UTSA returns one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 starters coming back. The Roadrunners have won 15 games over the last two seasons and they are set to breakout in 2014. Head coach Larry Coker won a national championship at Miami and has a great shot of getting the Roadrunners to the C-USA title game.

North Texas Mean Green (2013: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)

The team had a breakout season in 2013 when it went 9-4 and won the Heart of Dallas Bowl. But North Texas will be hard-pressed to repeat last year’s success as it returns just nine starters while playing a tough schedule with five of its final eight games on the road.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Offense. MTU returns just five starters on offense and the quarterback situation is up for grabs. Head coach Rick Stockstill said he won’t name a starter until the Friday before the season opener and that doesn’t show much confidence in the players battling for the job.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2013: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS)

The team is in flux right now with their third new head coach in three years and moving from the Sun Belt to C-USA. The defense also figures to regress sharply with just four starters returning. Western Kentucky lost conference players of the year on both offense and defense to graduation. That leaves the Hilltoppers without their best players on both sides of the ball.

Rice Owls (2013: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Rice won the C-USA title last season, so it comes into 2014 with a lot of momentum. The Owls return only 12 starters but they have an experienced roster overall. Rice’s best attribute is its running game and its ability to possess the ball and control the clock make the Owls very competitive in this conference.

Florida Atlantic Owls (2013: 6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS)

The team showed a tremendous amount of resiliency after its head coach and defensive coordinator quit midseason. Florida Atlantic won its last four games, so that was positive momentum heading into the offseason. Only 11 starters return, but the Owls could surprise in 2014.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Louisiana Tech should improve in its second year under head coach Skip Holtz. The Bulldogs also have a new defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, who did good things at Texas and Mississippi State. The stop unit projects to be very good this year and that makes Louisiana Tech a sleeper in C-USA.

Old Dominion Monarchs (2013: 8-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)

Old Dominion is making the jump from FCS to FBS this season. The Monarchs return 17 starters from their eight-win team of 2013, so a successful transition isn’t out of the question, especially since they possess a potent offense that has averaged 36.7 points per game or more over the last three seasons.

UTEP Miners (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

There’s still a lot of work ahead of UTEP, especially its implemented 4-2-5 defensive scheme. The defensive line is a key element for that type of defense, but the Miners will have three new starters along the line. The schedule will be difficult to navigate and while UTEP is better than last year, it may not be reflected in the win/loss column.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

There’s nowhere to go but up for Southern Miss in 2014 and big improvement is expected. The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and they will be in the second year of head coach Todd Monken’s system. Injuries decimated this team last season but if they stay healthy, they could pull a big upset or two.

UAB Blazers (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS)

UAB has won three games or less in each of the last three seasons. With new head coach Bill Clark short on experience (Jackson State last year), expectations are extremely low for the Blazers once again. Unless the defense shows significant improvement, UAB will repeat what it’s done over the last three years.

Florida International Golden Panthers (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Florida International was embarrassingly bad in head coach Ron Turner’s first season. However, with 17 returning starters, the Panthers have the experience to improve in 2014. The early schedule is favorable with their first four games at home, including a pair of FCS opponents to begin the season.


Independents

Army Black Knights (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Army went 7-6 in 2010 for its only winning season since 1996. It has won a grand total of eight games the past three years and in 13 of its last 16 campaigns it has won no more than three games. A dreadful defense in 2013 gave up at least 21 points in all nine of the Black Knights’ losses, including at least 33 points in seven of the nine. The coaching regime changed, which should be a good thing in the long run but does not bode well for the immediate future as the program looks to establish a new identity.

Brigham Young Cougars (2013: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Their experienced backfield notwithstanding, the Cougars have some rebuilding - or reloading - to do. The top three wide receivers from 2013, including all-time leading receiver Cody Hoffman, graduated. Mitch Mathews (23 catches, 397 yards) is their top returnee in that department. On the defensive side of the ball, BYU lost starting linebackers Uani Unga, Tyler Beck and second-round NFL Draft pick Kyle Van Noy. As for the schedule, the Cougars will pay visits to Texas, Central Florida, Boise State, and California.

Navy Midshipmen (2013: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Navy has been one of the most consistent programs in college football, with 10 winning seasons in its last 11 campaigns and borderline domination of its fellow service academies during this stretch. The team’s triple-option offense racked up 33.5 points and 411.3 yards per game last year and returns most of its key pieces, including quarterback Keenan Reynolds. A rising junior, Reynolds is well on his way to becoming one of Navy’s greats. This is the Midshipmen’s final season as independents before moving to the American Athletic Conference in 2015. They will want to send a message to their new foes before joining the fray.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Golson is a year removed from competition and Zaire is obviously unproven at the college level. Even so, quarterback is nowhere near Notre Dame’s biggest question mark. The team will have to overcome a plethora of big losses. In addition to Rees, defensive tackles Louis Nix III and Stephon Tuitt, offensive linemen Zack Martin, inside linebacker Carlo Calabrese, and tight end Troy Niklas -to name just some - are all gone. The Irish once again have a tough schedule with few “gimme” games. Among the tests are vs. Michigan, Stanford, North Carolina, and Louisville, and at Florida State, Navy, and Southern Cal.


Mid-American

Akron Zips (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Zips won only six games combined in the four years prior to last season, when they suddenly improved enough for a five-win campaign. Quarterback Kyle Pohl and running back Jawon Chisholm are an experienced duo. The defensive will be inexperienced, but it’s hard to bet against veteran coordinator Chuck Amato.

Ball State Cardinals (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Four-year starting quarterback Keith Wenning is gone. So too are three of the Cardinals’ top four receivers. Willie Snead (106 catches, 1,516 yards, 15 TDs) left for the NFL after his junior campaign. Only one starter on the defensive line is returning.

Bowling Green Falcons (2013: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS)

Dino Babers is in as head coach after being at the helm of the leading offense in the FCS last season (Eastern Illinois averaged 589.5 YPG and 48.2 PPG). Junior quarterback Matt Johnson (3,467 passing yards, 25 touchdowns in 2013) should be one of the beneficiaries. Bowling Green’s defense led the MAC in fewest points allowed last season.

Buffalo Bulls (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Buffalo must try to replace MAC Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack and the school’s all-time leading rusher, Branden Oliver. Even beyond Mack, the front seven is depleted. Under head coach Jeff Quinn, the Bulls are 4-27 SU and 8-22-1 ATS against opponents with winning percentages greater than .250.

Central Michigan Chippewas (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Chippewas open with a weak schedule that includes real opportunities for major-conference wins (vs. Purdue and Kansas). Quarterback Cody Kater is back after missing most of 2013 with a broken collarbone. Wide receiver Titus Davis opted against the NFL. A total of 18 starters return.

Eastern Michigan Eagles (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

A new coaching regime is in, which could be a good thing in the long run but will signal a transition period right now. The Eagles gave up an average of 510.8 yards and 45.2 points per game in 2013. They have recorded only one winning season since 1990 (6-5 in 1995).

Kent State Golden Flashes (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Kent State went 11-3 in 2012 under Darrell Hazell but compiled a 4-8 mark in Paul Haynes’ first year at the helm. The Golden Flashes are one of only two MAC teams, along with UMass, without an FCS opponent on the schedule. On defense, the line will need almost a complete overhaul.

Massachusetts Minutemen (2013: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Massachusetts is coming off back-to-back 1-11 campaigns in which the one win came against a team that went winless in the MAC. The defensive line is in shambles and there’s no depth to speak of aside from maybe at quarterback.

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (2013: 0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Miami (Ohio) has posted three losing seasons in a row, including a bagel last year. Don Treadwell is out, so the Redhawks will have to adjust to a new coaching staff. The 2013 team was dead last in the nation in red-zone offense, second worst in third-down conversions, and third worst in sacks allowed.

Northern Illinois Huskies (2013: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Northern Illinois is loaded at running back with Cameron Stingily and Akeem Daniels. The Huskies also boast a talented receiver duo in Da’Ron Brown and Tommylee Lewis. They are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Ohio Bobcats (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Ohio will need an overhaul on offense following the departure of a star quarterback, two top rushers, five of the top six receivers, and three offensive linemen. Quarterback Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship were the team’s undisputed leaders the past few years but are now gone.

Toledo Rockets (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)

Sixteen starters - including six all-MAC performers - are returning. The Rockets should be dominant in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Kicker Jeremiah Detmer, a Lou Groza Award finalist last season, has converted 36 of 37 field goal attempts over the past two years.

Western Michigan Broncos (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Western Michigan won only one game last season and it came via a 31-30 decision after Massachusetts botched a two-point conversion attempt. Freshmen are expected to compete for just about every single starting position on the offensive side of the ball.


Mountain West

Air Force Falcons (2013: 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS)

The overall talent level just isn’t on par with the rest of the Mountain West. It’s quite simply an uphill battle for the Falcons and you might not want to be along for the ride. Size and speed are an issue, particularly on the defensive side of the football.

Boise State Broncos (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The sky isn’t falling in Boise. Sure, there’s a change at the helm and the Broncos are coming off back-to-back down years. But things are looking up heading into 2014 with a wealth of returning talent, not to mention the fact that the Mountain West is wide open. Defense could turn out to be the biggest difference-maker for the Broncos this season.

Colorado State Rams (2013: 8-6 SU, 10-4 ATS)

There could be major problems in the trenches with the Rams losing key cogs on both the offensive and defensive lines. That’s not to mention a gaping hole that needs to be filled in the backfield. How those positions are filled could determine whether Colorado State takes a step forward or shows regression.

New Mexico Lobos (2013: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

It’s not easy to work out the kinks in a conference as tough as the Mountain West. If the passing game struggles and the offense remains completely one-dimensional, reaching a Bowl game will be nothing more than a pipe dream. There are areas where the defense is stout, but not enough talent across the board.

Utah State Aggies (2013: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS)

Two words: Chuckie Keeton. He’s quite simply one of the biggest game breakers in college football, and he’s back after suffering a devastating injury last season. Getting running back Joe Hill back on the field is another major plus.

Wyoming Cowboys (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

This is still going to be a transition year for the Cowboys, and with a difficult schedule, outright wins will be few and far between. Last year’s team had a better offense and still only managed to go 5-7 ATS. The defense will need to be a lot better, and while Bohl will make a difference, a complete turnaround will take a lot of time.

Fresno State Bulldogs (2013: 11-2 SU, 5-8 ATS)

If Fresno State can ‘survive’ a brutal three-game stretch to open the season, they could flourish the rest of the way, with a very manageable nine-game slate. This team plays extremely fast – on both sides of the ball, and with expectations at a reasonable level, they could over-achieve.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2013: 1-11 SU, 7-5 ATS)

The Warriors are probably staring at a pretty long rebuilding phase, and likely at least a year away from what they hope is a return to contention, if not for an unlikely conference title, at least for a Bowl berth. You have to wonder where the Warriors heads are at after suffering through two seasons that couldn’t have gone much worse.

Nevada Wolf Pack (2013: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Fajardo won’t have an envious job given his lacking supporting cast. Nevada’s defensive line got flat-out bullied from start to finish a year ago, and without an infusion of size and strength, a similar story could unfold in 2014.

San Diego State Aztecs (2013: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)

The Aztecs have recruited as well as any team in the conference over the last few years, and they’re likely to reap the rewards again this season. You won’t find many weaknesses on the Aztecs roster, with just enough returning, not to mention young talent. Another Bowl bid is a virtual lock.

San Jose State Spartans (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

We’ve seen the Spartans evolve into a Bowl contender on a seemingly yearly basis, but they’ll be in bounce-back position after a .500 campaign in 2013. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. This is a team that seems to perform better when it has a chip on its shoulder, and I expect that to hold true this year.

UNLV Rebels (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

We could see the defense get pushed around up front, putting a little too much pressure on the secondary to carry the load. Even with a wealth of talent at wide receiver, the offense will only go as far as the quarterback position can carry it and that’s an issue with the personnel available under center.


Pac-12

Arizona Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Rich Rodriguez has guided the Wildcats to two straight 8-5 campaigns and is now dealing primarily with his players who are familiar with his system. Wide receiver Austin Hill will be back from a knee injury and the defense was vastly improved in RichRod’s second season.

Arizona State Sun Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Although the offensive line is somewhat depleted, the main concern -by a mile - is defense. Nine of 11 starters are gone, including third-round draft pick Will Sutton (defensive tackle) and outside linebacker Carl Bradford. Arizona State’s defense already was not very good.

California Golden Bears (2013: 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Still, Goff is a freshman and may not make a smooth transition to the college ranks without much help around him. The Golden Bears also have a new defensive coordinator, so this is obviously a transition period. Six of their opponents finished the 2013 season in the AP top 25.

Colorado Buffaloes (2013: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Wide receiver Paul Richardson (83 catches, 1343 yards, 10 TDs) left early and was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. The Buffaloes are still young and lacking depth. They are likely a year away from bowl contention, which will come when MacIntyre really has his own players in place.

Oregon Ducks (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Somewhat unexpectedly, quarterback Marcus Mariota is back for another season. A legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, Mariota will once again be supported by a loaded backfield. The Ducks now have a year of experience under head coach Mark Helfrich and they get to play both Michigan State and Stanford at home.

Oregon State Beavers (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Oregon State will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Danny Langsdorf left for a role with the New York Giants) and must deal with the loss of receiver Brandin Cooks (first-round pick of the New Orleans Saints). Defensive end Scott Crichton also left early and only one starter on the d-line returns.

Stanford Cardinal (2013: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Running backs Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson graduated and a whole host of stalwarts on Stanford’s heralded offensive line are also gone. Shaw may be back, but the Cardinal saw their coordinators and various staff members raided by other programs. The schedule is brutal, with road dates at Notre Dame, Oregon, and UCLA.

UCLA Bruins (2013: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS)

UCLA beat just about everyone it was supposed to last year, aside from a home loss to Arizona State, and is coming off a 42-12 drubbing of Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl. Do-it-all quarterback Brett Hundley is back for his junior campaign. The Bruins entertain Oregon, USC, and Stanford all at home.

USC Trojans (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Lane Kiffin is out. It’s hard to say that is not a good thing. Steve Sarksian is in. The jury is still out, of course, but he at least has ties to USC (coach from 2005-2008) and did well there in the past. Quarterback Cody Kessler is back in an attempt to soften the blow of receiver Marqise Lee’s departure to the NFL.

Utah Utes (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Utah should be in good shape at both running back and receiver. Bubba Poole will once again anchor the backfield and Devontae Booker was explosive in spring practice. Dres Anderson was the Pac-12’s leading receiver last season. The Utes will host both USC and Oregon.

Washington Huskies (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Quarterback Keith Price is gone and it’s not clear who’s going to be taking over for Washington. The defense has major question marks in the secondary. Petersen may be a proven coach, but is some kind of transition period necessary before his program really takes off?

Washington State Cougars (2013: 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS)

The Cougars won nine total games in the four years prior to Mike Leach’s arrival. In just two seasons under the offensive mastermind, they have already matched that number. Leach has the program on the rise and it could continue with experience at two of the positions Leach loves most: QB (senior Connor Halliday) and wide receiver.


SEC

Alabama Crimson Tide (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Alabama will be a motivated team after failing to get to the National Championship Game last season. The Crimson Tide has the most talented team in the country and they’ll be ready to play from the get-go after losing the Sugar Bowl to finish a disappointing 2013 season.

LSU Tigers (2013: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)

LSU has a strong team every year and 2014 will be no different. The Tigers have an easy path early on this season and they could very well be undefeated when they host Alabama in November. Their offensive line is one of the best in the country and they’ll pave the way for one of the top rushing attacks in the nation.

South Carolina Gamecocks (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

South Carolina has gone 11-2 in each of the last three years, so it’s been an ultra-consistent team. The Gamecocks return 14 starters and a quarterback (Dylan Thompson) that has plenty of playing experience.

Auburn Tigers (2013: 12-2 SU, 12-2 ATS)

Auburn’s run in 2013 was a big surprise and it will be hard pressed to catch any team off guard this season. The Tigers won six games by eight points or less last season and will be tough to win all the close games this year. Auburn’s road schedule is brutal and it’s likely to regress in 2014.

Georgia Bulldogs (2013: 8-5 SU, 3-9-1 ATS)

Georgia was besieged with injuries in 2013 and it simply did not have a fair season. The Bulldogs’ defense will be tremendous and they will be an overall improved team in 2014. Despite losing quarterback Aaron Murray, Georgia will be led by sophomore Hutson Matson, who gained valuable experience when playing as a true freshman last year.

Mississippi Rebels (2013: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Mississippi will be a very good team this season. It returns a loaded team that includes 15 starters. Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford and his teams improve as the years go on. The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball and they are a true dark-horse contender in the SEC in 2014.

Florida Gators (2013: 4-8 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

Florida had a dismal 2013 but signs are pointing up for the Gators in 2014. Injuries played a major role in their losing season, but a reversal of health figures to grace the Gators. Half of Florida’s losses last year came by six points or less, so it was competitive despite playing with an undermanned team.

Tennessee Volunteers (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

They are the only team in the country that lost all of their starters along the offensive and defensive lines. Tennessee also needs a quarterback to step in and lead the offense. This will be another rebuilding season for the Volunteers and they’ll be on the border of the six-win mark in 2014.

Missouri Tigers (2013: 12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS)

The team returns only eight starters and off their best season in years, it’s unlikely they can repeat that success. Missouri’s defense will have the spotlight on it but after losing some key pieces, it’s a stretch to think they can match last year’s numbers when they allowed only 23.1 points per game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Mississippi State has had a winning record in four consecutive years and with 16 returning starters, 2014 should be another successful campaign. The Bulldogs play a favorable schedule and their defense will be a stout unit.

Texas A&M Aggies (2013: 9-4 SU, 4-9 ATS)

Quarterback Johnny Manziel is gone along with big playmaker Mike Evans. Texas A&M’s defense does return nine starters, but that unit allowed an ugly 32.2 points per game last season. They also play six road games this season compared to playing just four away games last year.

Arkansas Razorbacks (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Arkansas holds value this season after going 3-9 in 2013. The Razorbacks will be much improved in the second year under head coach Bret Bielema. With 14 returning starters and two bye weeks on a tough schedule, Arkansas will pull an upset or two this season.

Kentucky Wildcats (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Coming off back-to-back 2-10 seasons, Kentucky should be a much better team in 2014, especially with the return of 15 starters. The Wildcats will be in their second year under head coach Mark Stoops and will have a solid defense that will keep them competitive in 2014.

Vanderbilt Commodores (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Head coach James Franklin left for Penn State and his departure will have a major impact on Vanderbilt’s future. The Commodores only return 10 starters and they lost five all-conference players. Vanderbilt will likely regress significantly in 2014.


Sun Belt

UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)

UL Lafayette is the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season. The Ragin’ Cajuns return 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway, who put up big numbers last season. The offense will be potent once again after averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013. Their defense improved last season and they will move forward once again.

South Alabama Jaguars (2013: 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS)

South Alabama was much better than its 6-6 record last year. The Jaguars were a competitive bunch with five of their six losses coming by seven points or less. With 15 returning starters, South Alabama should have good fortune and win the close games. The Jaguars improved on both sides of the ball in 2013, so this team is on the upswing.

UL Monroe Warhawks (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

The loss of quarterback Kolton Browning to graduation leaves UL Monroe with a big hole to fill in 2014. The schedule doesn’t help either as the Warhawks play three road games at SEC opponents and close the season by playing four of their last five games on the road.

Arkansas State Red Wolves (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The Red Wolves return just four starters on offense and they will be playing for their fifth new coach in five years. Blake Anderson moves from offensive coordinator to head coach - a position he’s never held before. At some point, the coaching turnover has to catch up to Arkansas State and 2014 might be the year.

Troy Trojans (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Troy’s offense projects to be explosive this season and as long as it gets consistent play from the quarterback position, the Trojans will be competitive. Their conference schedule is very kind and Troy should be able to take advantage of that, making its a sleeper in the Sun Belt.

Texas State Bobcats (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

The Texas State defense returns only four starters and the coaching situation has set it back. Coordinator John Thompson has coached at big-name schools, but he was hired just one week before spring practice. He will implement a 4-2-5 scheme but with inexperienced players, the Bobcats will struggle to stop opponents in 2014.

Georgia Southern Eagles (2013: 7-4 SU, 1-0 ATS)

There’s a lot of change going on with Georgia Southern in 2014. Willie Fritz is the new head coach and he’s looking to open up the Eagles’ run-based offense. Depth is also an issue for Georgia Southern as it only has 63 scholarship players (FCS rules) compared to the 85 allowed for FBS teams. The Eagles also play seven of their 12 games on the road this season.

Idaho Vandals (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Idaho is taking a step down in class by joining the Sun Belt. The Vandals can only improve off their one-win season and the return of 17 starters is definitely a plus. The lesser competition will give Idaho a major boost and it will be a much improved team in 2014.

New Mexico State Aggies (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS)

New Mexico State will benefit from playing in the Sun Belt conference. Its schedule was brutal in head coach Doug Martin’s first season. But this year, the Aggies have manageable games that are winnable. The offense will surprise teams and the ability to score points will make New Mexico State better in 2014.

Appalachian State Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 1-0 ATS)

The team is moving up from FCS to FBS and it is a young and inexperienced team. Head coach Scott Satterfield is in just his second season and he has little experience as well. Facing better competition every week will prove to be too much for the Mountaineers in their first season in FBS.

Georgia State Panthers (2013: 0-12 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Georgia State hopes its second year in FBS play will be better. But with only nine returning starters, expectations are extremely low. The Panthers have a weak offense and a terrible defense and anything more than two wins would be considered a successful season in Atlanta.