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Total Notes - Week 5
September 26, 2014
Week 4 Recap
Once again there was a great balance in the totals market last weekend as the ‘under’ produced a 24-20 record in FBS matchups. Through four weeks of the regular season, FBS teams are averaging 31.6 points per game, which is a record pace yet. When you see those total results and glaring offensive numbers, it shows you how good the oddsmakers really are.
For those of you following the action live this past Saturday, I hope you take advantage of the many options, which include second-half wagering and in-game wagering or what most shops call “Live Betting.”
As part of our weekly column, VegasInsider.com total expert James Manos returns with his weekly thoughts and advice on playing halves.
Manos explained, “I do believe that betting into the totals market on second halves and "Live Betting" offer better chances at winning than playing second-half or live sides. When playing second-half totals you really have to be cognizant of how many plays you expect to be run and what "end of game" situation you expect to see.
For instance, Team A is a power running, control offense, B+ and above level defensive team and they are playing Team B which is a up-tempo, high play count, passing team with a C defense, the total score of the game at halftime may have less to do with the preferred second-half total bet than the halftime scoring differential does. If it's a close game, does Team A continue to play its game or intentionally try to shorten the game even more by playing slow? If Team A leads by double-digits can they control the clock or does that help Team B play even faster? Obviously, also, you should be very aware of who will receive the 2nd half kickoff and how that will affect the game. If Team A receives the kickoff and goes on an 11 play drive that lasts 8 minutes and result in a FG, you're 2nd half over bet could be toast before it even starts.
Live betting can be a different animal. Lots of outfits say they offer "in game" betting and then make it virtually impossible to get wagers in. Others offer live wagering but make the limits low and juice high, rendering it worthless. Live wagering can be advantageous though as the programs they use to create the "in game totals" often don't account for actual gameplay, allowing an aware bettor to take advantage.
In addition, LARGE middles can be created when lulls or sudden swings occur in games. An increase in live wagering is on the horizon and it's the marketplace of the future but I still prefer to play full game totals over any other options due to higher betting limits and the length of the game minimizing randomness. Fumble return for a TD in your UNDER 48 full game wager, you can survive. Fumble return for a TD in your 2nd half UNDER 23.5 wager, uhhh ohhh.”
Big Five (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
The ACC watched the ‘under’ go 6-4 last week and one of those winners included the Maryland-Syracuse game, which in most cases should’ve gone ‘over’ the number. The total closed at 54 ½ at most books and the Terrapins opened a 31-13 lead at halftime but only 10 combined points were scored in the second-half.
Only three games featured Big 12 opponents last week and the ‘under’ produced a 2-1 record.
Despite watching Michigan State (73), Penn State (48) and Wisconsin (68) explode offensively last weekend, the ‘under’ went 6-5 in the Big Ten.
The Pac-12 almost watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 in Week 5 but that was before the Arizona-California matchup saw an eye-opening 50 points scored in the fourth quarter last Saturday. The Golden Bears lead 31-13 heading into the final quarter and ‘over’ bettors (70) needed help. The Wildcats outscored Cal 36-14 in the last 15 minutes, which include a Hail Mary touchdown to capture a 49-45 win. Those playing Live Betting on this late-night tilt must’ve had a blast.
The ‘over’ went 6-2 in the SEC last week and this could be a reoccurring theme with this group. We asked Manos his thoughts on the conference and the new offensive identity and he wasn’t buying the high-scoring approach, just yet.
Manos answered, “Increase in scoring in the SEC this season is a bit of a fluke. Lower level teams like Kentucky and Vanderbilt will still struggle to score against the premium powers. However, the Big 12 crossovers, Texas A&M and Missouri have brought a more wide open approach to the league. I do believe that eventually it will be those schools that have to adjust to the SEC and not the other way around. Texas A&M is doomed to become the Oregon Ducks of the SEC, they will score a ton of points, play entertaining games, and produce tons of quality skill position players but they will never win a National Title or consistently defeat the more physical teams in the league until THEY change. Oregon doesn't defeat SEC squads for a reason, Alabama is good every year for a reason, the SEC's overall defensive talent is vastly superior to any other conference's……and it's not even close. You have to adjust to that before you can truly advance.
Also, Auburn's offense seems to have come back to the pack a bit as SEC defensive coordinators get more film to look at and game experience to evaluate that will happen with Texas A&M as well. I don't see the fundamental shift in nature in the SEC that I saw in the Big 12 five years ago. That conference shifted when the offensive talent at most of its schools started to far outweigh the defensive talent and it has simply never shifted back as schools like Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech became successful simply playing "video game" football.
The fundamental nature of the SEC won't switch until a school figures out how to beat Alabama and LSU on a regular basis. There must be a power shift to promote a philosophy shift and not the other way around.”
Streaks to Watch
Four schools in action on Saturday have a chance to extend their total streaks to 5-0.
Over (4-0)
Tulane at Rutgers
Louisiana Tech at Auburn
Under (4-0)
Navy vs. Western Kentucky
Wyoming at Michigan State
Line Moves
In a previous Total Notes piece, Manos touched on how he analyzes line movements in the totals market and divided the shifts into four categories.
Listed below are examples of each category for Week 5.
1) Correct sharp movement - Maryland/Indiana OVER
2) Incorrect sharp movement - Duke/Miami OVER
3) Public movement - Notre Dame/Syracuse OVER
4) Market manipulation - Texas State/Tulsa OVER
Listed below are all of the total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday evening.
Week 5 Moves
Rotation Open Current
Minnesota at Michigan 46.5 42.5
Maryland at Indiana 64.5 70
Baylor at Iowa State 66 71.5
Temple at UConn 48 45
Akron at Pittsburgh 47.5 51
Vanderbilt at Kentucky 53.5 48.5
Wake Forest 44.5 41.5
Texas State at Tulsa 64 67
Bowling Green at UMass 64.5 71.5
TCU at SMU 51 48
Oregon State 51.5 55.5
Texas at Kansas 44.5 41
Duke at Miami, Fl. 55.5 61.5
South Alabama at Idaho 55 59
Nevada at San Jose State 56 53
September 26, 2014
Week 4 Recap
Once again there was a great balance in the totals market last weekend as the ‘under’ produced a 24-20 record in FBS matchups. Through four weeks of the regular season, FBS teams are averaging 31.6 points per game, which is a record pace yet. When you see those total results and glaring offensive numbers, it shows you how good the oddsmakers really are.
For those of you following the action live this past Saturday, I hope you take advantage of the many options, which include second-half wagering and in-game wagering or what most shops call “Live Betting.”
As part of our weekly column, VegasInsider.com total expert James Manos returns with his weekly thoughts and advice on playing halves.
Manos explained, “I do believe that betting into the totals market on second halves and "Live Betting" offer better chances at winning than playing second-half or live sides. When playing second-half totals you really have to be cognizant of how many plays you expect to be run and what "end of game" situation you expect to see.
For instance, Team A is a power running, control offense, B+ and above level defensive team and they are playing Team B which is a up-tempo, high play count, passing team with a C defense, the total score of the game at halftime may have less to do with the preferred second-half total bet than the halftime scoring differential does. If it's a close game, does Team A continue to play its game or intentionally try to shorten the game even more by playing slow? If Team A leads by double-digits can they control the clock or does that help Team B play even faster? Obviously, also, you should be very aware of who will receive the 2nd half kickoff and how that will affect the game. If Team A receives the kickoff and goes on an 11 play drive that lasts 8 minutes and result in a FG, you're 2nd half over bet could be toast before it even starts.
Live betting can be a different animal. Lots of outfits say they offer "in game" betting and then make it virtually impossible to get wagers in. Others offer live wagering but make the limits low and juice high, rendering it worthless. Live wagering can be advantageous though as the programs they use to create the "in game totals" often don't account for actual gameplay, allowing an aware bettor to take advantage.
In addition, LARGE middles can be created when lulls or sudden swings occur in games. An increase in live wagering is on the horizon and it's the marketplace of the future but I still prefer to play full game totals over any other options due to higher betting limits and the length of the game minimizing randomness. Fumble return for a TD in your UNDER 48 full game wager, you can survive. Fumble return for a TD in your 2nd half UNDER 23.5 wager, uhhh ohhh.”
Big Five (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
The ACC watched the ‘under’ go 6-4 last week and one of those winners included the Maryland-Syracuse game, which in most cases should’ve gone ‘over’ the number. The total closed at 54 ½ at most books and the Terrapins opened a 31-13 lead at halftime but only 10 combined points were scored in the second-half.
Only three games featured Big 12 opponents last week and the ‘under’ produced a 2-1 record.
Despite watching Michigan State (73), Penn State (48) and Wisconsin (68) explode offensively last weekend, the ‘under’ went 6-5 in the Big Ten.
The Pac-12 almost watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 in Week 5 but that was before the Arizona-California matchup saw an eye-opening 50 points scored in the fourth quarter last Saturday. The Golden Bears lead 31-13 heading into the final quarter and ‘over’ bettors (70) needed help. The Wildcats outscored Cal 36-14 in the last 15 minutes, which include a Hail Mary touchdown to capture a 49-45 win. Those playing Live Betting on this late-night tilt must’ve had a blast.
The ‘over’ went 6-2 in the SEC last week and this could be a reoccurring theme with this group. We asked Manos his thoughts on the conference and the new offensive identity and he wasn’t buying the high-scoring approach, just yet.
Manos answered, “Increase in scoring in the SEC this season is a bit of a fluke. Lower level teams like Kentucky and Vanderbilt will still struggle to score against the premium powers. However, the Big 12 crossovers, Texas A&M and Missouri have brought a more wide open approach to the league. I do believe that eventually it will be those schools that have to adjust to the SEC and not the other way around. Texas A&M is doomed to become the Oregon Ducks of the SEC, they will score a ton of points, play entertaining games, and produce tons of quality skill position players but they will never win a National Title or consistently defeat the more physical teams in the league until THEY change. Oregon doesn't defeat SEC squads for a reason, Alabama is good every year for a reason, the SEC's overall defensive talent is vastly superior to any other conference's……and it's not even close. You have to adjust to that before you can truly advance.
Also, Auburn's offense seems to have come back to the pack a bit as SEC defensive coordinators get more film to look at and game experience to evaluate that will happen with Texas A&M as well. I don't see the fundamental shift in nature in the SEC that I saw in the Big 12 five years ago. That conference shifted when the offensive talent at most of its schools started to far outweigh the defensive talent and it has simply never shifted back as schools like Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech became successful simply playing "video game" football.
The fundamental nature of the SEC won't switch until a school figures out how to beat Alabama and LSU on a regular basis. There must be a power shift to promote a philosophy shift and not the other way around.”
Streaks to Watch
Four schools in action on Saturday have a chance to extend their total streaks to 5-0.
Over (4-0)
Tulane at Rutgers
Louisiana Tech at Auburn
Under (4-0)
Navy vs. Western Kentucky
Wyoming at Michigan State
Line Moves
In a previous Total Notes piece, Manos touched on how he analyzes line movements in the totals market and divided the shifts into four categories.
Listed below are examples of each category for Week 5.
1) Correct sharp movement - Maryland/Indiana OVER
2) Incorrect sharp movement - Duke/Miami OVER
3) Public movement - Notre Dame/Syracuse OVER
4) Market manipulation - Texas State/Tulsa OVER
Listed below are all of the total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday evening.
Week 5 Moves
Rotation Open Current
Minnesota at Michigan 46.5 42.5
Maryland at Indiana 64.5 70
Baylor at Iowa State 66 71.5
Temple at UConn 48 45
Akron at Pittsburgh 47.5 51
Vanderbilt at Kentucky 53.5 48.5
Wake Forest 44.5 41.5
Texas State at Tulsa 64 67
Bowling Green at UMass 64.5 71.5
TCU at SMU 51 48
Oregon State 51.5 55.5
Texas at Kansas 44.5 41
Duke at Miami, Fl. 55.5 61.5
South Alabama at Idaho 55 59
Nevada at San Jose State 56 53
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