The Bum's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

[Kaptain]

gl my BRUDDDDDDDDDDDDAA........Lock & Load.........thanks once again

[StarDust Bum]

Hope you didn't miss the early action:




NCAAF Eastern Michigan 14 Michigan State -44 500 WON +500
Michigan State 73

NCAAF Tulane 13 Duke -16.5 500 WON +500
Duke 47

NCAAF Maryland 34 Maryland +2.5 500 WON +500
Syracuse 20

NCAAF Iowa 24 Iowa +7 500 WON +500
Pittsburgh 20

NCAAF Old Dominion 45 Old Dominion +6.5 500 WON +500
Rice 42

NCAAF Georgia Tech 27 Georgia Tech +7.5 500 WON +500
Virginia Tech 24

NCAAF Bowling Green 17 Wisconsin -27 500 WON +500
Wisconsin 68

NCAAF Troy 0 Troy +41 500 LOSS -550
Georgia 66

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Rated Plays and Opinions:


Northern Illinois - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas -13 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Arkansas -

Mississippi State - 7:00 PM ET Mississippi State +7 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Louisiana State -

Idaho - 7:00 PM ET Ohio -12.5 500
Ohio -

Middle Tennessee - 7:00 PM ET Memphis -13 500
Memphis -

Utah State - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas State -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Arkansas State -

Miami (Ohio) - 7:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +29 500 *****
Cincinnati -

Appalachian State - 7:00 PM ET Appalachian State -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Southern Mississippi -

Ball State - 7:00 PM ET Ball State +13.5 500
Toledo -

Georgia Southern - 7:30 PM ET Georgia Southern -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
South Alabama -

South Carolina - 7:30 PM ET South Carolina -23 500 LIGHTS OUT
Vanderbilt -

Oklahoma - 7:30 PM ET West Virginia +7.5 500 *****
West Virginia -

Clemson - 8:00 PM ET Florida State -10.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Florida State -

UNLV - 8:00 PM ET UNLV +21 500
Houston -

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami +7.5 500 *****
Nebraska -

New Mexico - 8:00 PM ET New Mexico -3.5 500
New Mexico State -

California - 10:00 PM ET California +8 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Arizona -

San Diego State - 10:30 PM ET Oregon State -10 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Oregon State -

Oregon - 10:30 PM ET Washington State +23 500
Washington State -

UL Lafayette - 10:30 PM ET UL Lafayette +17.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Boise State -

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------6 - 4

Double Plays--------------------------6 - 2

Triple Plays---------------------------4 - 3

LIGHTS OUT.....................................1 - 2

Saturdays Total on Rated Plays..........17 - 11 60.71 %

Overall Rated Plays

34- 24.....................................*****

23 - 17.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

18 - 13 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

6 - 8 ....................................LIGHTS OUT

81 - 62.................56.64%



Over all picks Opinions and Rated Games

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/20/14 22-*22-*0 50.00% -*1100 Detail

09/19/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

09/18/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

09/13/14 34-*21-*0 61.82% +*5450 Detail

09/12/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/11/14 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail

09/06/14 31-*34-*0 47.69% -*3200 Detail

09/05/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

09/01/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 95-*89-*0 51.63% -*1450

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.....

13) Florida State 23, Clemson 17 OT-- Sean Maguire was 21-39/305 in his first college start, tossing a 74-yard TD pass that tied the game in the fourth quarter. On Monday he goes back to the bench, until Jameis Winston's next incident. This was a bad loss for Clemson, which missed a 22-yard FG, fumbled in the last 2:00 when the game was tied and they were in easy FG range.

Great night for Jimbo Fisher, who did some serious coaching this week.

12) Utah 26, Michigan 10-- Speculation will now run rampant about Brady Hoke's job status. Jim Harbaugh, Les Miles. There was lot of bad weather in the midwest; three Big 14 home games were delayed by weather yesterday.

11) Rough day for the MAC:
Michigan State 73, Eastern Michigan 14
Wisconsin 68, Bowling Green 17
Penn State 48, UMass 7
Arkansas 52, Northern Illinois 14

MAC's only non-league I-A win Saturday was Ohio 36, Idaho 24. Oy.

10) Arizona 49, Cal 45-- Wildcats trailed 45-30 with 4:00 left, scored three TDs to pull a miraculous comeback, winning on a 47-yard Hail Mary at the gun. Cal led by 28-6 at half, 31-13 after three quarters yet somehow lost.

9) Alabama 42, Florida 21-- Total yardage was 645-200 Bama; Sims passed for 445 yards in his fourth college start. If this season finishes up with Lane Kiffin getting another head coaching job, the only way it can be justified is if he replaces Charlie Weis at Kansas (hey, the Jayhawks beat Central Michigan!!!).

8) East Carolina 70, North Carolina 41-- Tar Heels have an awful defense; they're in lousy shape, they can't tackle, simply terrible.

That said, my least favorite football rule is the stupid rule that you have to leave the game if your helmet comes off. It should be if you intentionally take it off, then you have to leave for a play. The current rule is nonsensical.

7) Southern Mississippi 31, Appalachian State 30-- ASU scored a TD with 0:06 left, then had the tying PAT blocked. With six seconds left. In a 31-30 game.

6) South Florida 17, UConn 14-- Huskies' first TD on a rainy night was a classic Football Follies play: USF is up 14-0 near end of the half, they throw a pass on sideline, right to a receiver, but he bobbles it into the hands of a UConn defender who runs for an unlikely TD. Huskies had six first downs the whole night; this was a terrible game.

5) South Carolina 48, Vanderbilt 34-- Commodores ran two kicks back for TDs, and still lost by 14 points. James Franklin was smart getting out of town. Vandy is a very difficult job to win at. Spurrier won by two TDs and was miserable after.

4) Wake Forest 24, Army 21-- Over last decade, Army is 0-7 as a road favorite.

3) New Mexico 38, New Mexico State 35-- Lobos completed only eight passes in this game, but four different players completed at least one. State had 507-499 edge in total yardage; Lobos ran ball for 432 yards, needed TD with 0:27 left to win.

2) Georgia Tech 27, Virginia Tech 24-- Yellow Jackets scored ten points in last 2:03, handing Hokies their second straight home loss after winning at Ohio State.

1) Oregon 38, Washington State 31-- #21 on Wazzu is River Cracraft, who has great hands in the Wes Welker-mold. Ducks were challenged in this game, but Coogs are little bit talent-shy on defensive side of ball.

[StarDust Bum]

Here is my Rated Plays in College Football on Thursdays & Friday Nights ( For Those Who Are Interested In These Nights )


Thursdays Night Games:

08/28.........South Carolina - 9.5 ***** ( Loser ) 28 - 52

08/28........ Tulsa - 6 Double Play ( Winner ) 28 - 21

08/28........ Ole Miss - 10 ***** ( Winner ) Boise St. Over 51.5 ***** 35 - 13

08/28........ Temple + 11.0 ***** ( Winner ) 37 - 7

08/28........ Rutgers + 7.5 ***** ( Winner ) 41 - 38


09/04....... Arizona - 7 Triple Play ( Loser ) Texas S.A. Under 54.5 Triple Play ( Winner ) 26 - 23

09/11....... North Texas - 3.5 Double Play ( Loser ) Louisiana Tech Over 48.0 Double Play ( Winner ) 21 - 42

09/11........ Houston + 17.0 ***** ( Winner ) BYU Under 53.5 ***** ( Winner ) 25 - 33

09/18........ Kansas St. + 7 ***** ( Winner ) Auburn Over 64 ***** ( Loser )_ 14 - 20


*****............... 7 - 3

Double Play......... 2 - 1

Triple Play........... 1 - 0

Lights Out........... 0 - 0

Rated Totals........10 - 4...........71.42 %

Sides..................6 - 3

Total..................3 - 2


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday Night Games


08/29..................BYU - 15.5 ***** ( Winner ) UCONN Under 54.5 ***** ( Winner ) 35 -10

08/29..................Jacksonville St. + 14.5 ***** ( Loser ) 7 - 45

08/29..................Bowling Green - 6.5 Double Play ( Loser ) 31 - 59

08/29..................Colorado - 2.5 Triple Play ( Loser ) 17 - 31

08/29..................Houston 1 10 Lights Out ( Winner ) 7 - 27

08/29..................UNLV + 23.5 Double Play ( Loser ) 13 - 58

09/05..................Pittsburgh - 5.5 Triple Play ( Winner ) Boston College Under 49.5 Triple Play 30 -20

09/05..................Washingtone St. - 3.0 ***** ( Loser ) Nevada Over 47.0 Double Play 13 - 24

09/12..................Baylor - 32.0 Lights Out ( Winner ) Buffalo Under 69.0 Triple Play ( Winner ) 63 - 21

09/12..................Cincy - 9.5 ***** ( Winner ) Toledo Under 58.0 Double play ( Loser ) 58 - 34

09/19..................UConn + 2.5 Double Play ( Loser ) S. Florida Over 43.5 ***** ( Loser ) 14 - 17

09/26..................???????????????????????


*****..................................3 - 3

Double Play ...........................0 - 5

Triple Play..............................1 - 3

Lights Out..............................2 - 0

Rated Games.........................6 - 11...........35.29 %


Sides.............5 - 6

Totals............1 - 5

[StarDust Bum]

College Betting Recap - Week 4

September 21, 2014


College Football Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 43-11

Against the Spread 31-23

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 37-17

Against the Spread 33-21


Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 20-24

The largest underdog to cash
Northwestern State (+23, ML +1250) at Louisiana Tech, 30-27

The largest favorite to cash
Michigan State (-43.5) vs Eastern Michigan, 73-14

Top 25 Notes

-- All eyes were on Tallahassee with top-ranked Florida State suspending QB Jameis Winston for spewing an offensive obscenity earlier this week on campus. It didn't go too well early on, with Clemson holding a 10-3 lead at half. They had the ball with less than two minutes left in regulation, tied 17-17. However, they coughed it up deep in FSU territory, and the Seminoles recovered. That was a seminal moment, as they held for OT, stopped the Tigers on their initial drive and finished off their ACC rivals with a TD.

-- Stashed away in Pullman, and supposedly playing in a game they should easily have won, Oregon had a close shave in Pullman against Washington State. The Ducks survived 38-31, but the Cougars definitely earned their respect.

-- Alabama looked to be on upset alert for a while, but they ended up pulling away from pesky Florida, and actually doubled them up 42-21. For a while, though, it was much closer than that score might indicate.

-- One SEC heavyweight wasn't as lucky at home. Louisiana State was this weekend's Top 10 victim, losing in Death Valley to Mississippi State by a 34-29 count. The Bulldogs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS on the road.

-- The weekend kicked off with Auburn hitting the road for Manhattan and a date with Kansas State. Auburn's 12-game cover streak came to an end with a late K-State score, but the Tigers survived a road game against a quality opponent, 20-14.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Lately things haven't been too great for the Big Ten, but this was actually a very good week for the conference. The Big Ten went 12-1 SU, with Michigan the only conference member with an 'L'. They were dropped at home by Utah and head coach Brady Hoke is now 1-6 in non-conference games against Power 5 conference. The heat is definitely getting turned up in Ann Arbor on his seat. The Jekyll and Hyde of the conference, Iowa, picked up a nice road win at previously unbeaten Pittsburgh, and Indiana dropped SEC representative Missouri in Columbia for an early-afternoon stunner.

-- The Big 12 had a rather quiet weekend. As mentioned, K-State lost at home Thursday. There were just three other conference members in action Saturday, and two played each other in Morgantown. West Virginia gave Indiana look-a-like Oklahoma a scare, but the Sooners eventually prevailed and covered, 45-33.

-- As mentioned, it wasn't great for the SEC Saturday. LSU and Mizzou lost outright at home as favorites, and South Carolina scratched out an uninspired win at Vanderbilt. However, it wasn't all bad, as Georgia throttled Troy 66-0, and Arkansas looked pretty impressive, as did Texas A&M. And don't overlook Bama's passing of their first test. That was a quality win.

-- In the ACC, Duke spanked Tulane to open the season 4-0 for the first time in 20 years. They'll put their unblemished record on the line in Miami next weekend. The Hurricanes were dropped in Nebraska 41-31, and will be angry. ... Another stunner happened in Blacksburg, as Virginia Tech has lost back-to-back home games since their big upset at Ohio State. Head coach Frank Beamer lost for just the fourth time in 23 conference home openers, as Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson beat the Hokies for just the second time since 2008. And North Carolina embarrassed the conference at East Carolina, having a 70-spot hung on them at Dowdy-Ficklen.

-- And in case you missed it late night, words can't really describe what happened in Tucson, but we'll try. California led 45-42 with one play to go. Arizona QB Anu Solomon had his prayers answered on a Hail Mary with no time remaining, stunning the Bears 49-45. While that was amazing, the game featured 44 total points in the first 45 minutes, and 50 points in the final quarter.

Mid-Major Report

-- The Sun Belt Conference had a difficult weekend, at least straight up. The league went just 2-8 SU, but ended up a respectable 6-4 ATS. Don't sleep on Georgia Southern, as the Eagles squared their record at 2-2 while posting a 4-0 ATS mark. Remember, they nearly took out N.C. State on opening weekend, losing in Raleigh 24-23.

-- How about a little love for the AAC? We haven't discussed them much this season, but East Carolina certainly carried the flag well, drumming UNC at home. UCF isn't the same this season, but they pounded an inferior FCS foe and covered, as did Temple. Memphis is off to a 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS start, and Cincinnati is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS.

-- Rough week for Conference USA. What happened in Ruston? Louisiana Tech entered as a 23-point favorite against FCS opponent Northwestern State, but they fell 30-27 at home. The Bulldogs entered 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS, including a dominating road win last time out at North Texas Sept. 11. ... To make matters worse, Florida Atlantic stumbled late against Wyoming, as a field goal with :15 left sunk them 20-19. And Florida International? They took it on the chin again, losing 34-3 at home to Louisville. They've been outscored by the Cardinals 106-3 in the past two seasons.

-- Independents went 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, with Brigham Young as the only Indy to pick up a straight-up win over Virginia.

Bad Beats

-- If you had Cal on the moneyline, condolences. No one deserves that kind of punishment. See above.

-- It wasn't quite as painful as the Cal loss, but Clemson moneyline bettors likely said their fair share of bad words to make what Jameis Winston said earlier in the week look 'G' rated. The Tigers had this one in the bag, and then let it out.

-- Anyone who had 'over' (55.5) in Rutgers-Navy was left shaking their head. The Scarlet Knights led 31-17 heading into the fourth quarter, and then the offensive spigot was shut off. The final period was the lowest scoring of the game, with just one Navy TD at 5:26. Losing by a half-point or 40 points still counts the same, but it hurts WAY more.

-- It was a slight bad beat if you had the 'under' (61.5) in Texas State-Illinois. It was 32-28 with 3:08 left before the teams combined for 17 points in the final 188 seconds. However, Illinois (-10.5) side bettors thought they had a late cover when the home team went up 42-28 on an interception return for TD, only to have Texas State drive the field for a late score with 72 seconds left in regulation for the backdoor cover. It's like losing twice.

-- Speaking of like losing twice, 'over' (46) bettors were given a second chance when Utah State-Arkansas went to overtime. But the Red Wolves outscored the Aggies 7-0 for an anti-climactic extra session. Hope dashed.

-- Lastly, how about Old Dominion? In a C-USA game with Rice, they allowed a game-tying touchdown with 65 seconds left, making it 42-42. But the Monarchs booted a game-winning 25-yard field goal with zeroes on the clock to win 45-42. ODU is now 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS, but 2-0 ATS on the road.

[StarDust Bum]

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 4

September 21, 2014


Week 4 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Florida State (W-L vs. Clemson 23-17)
The Noles looked like nothing more than an average team without Jameis Winston against Clemson.

2) Alabama (W-W vs. Florida 42-21)
Had the Tide not turned the ball over four times, they would have beaten Florida by 40.

3) Oregon (W-L vs. Washington State 38-31)
The Oregon defense came up big at the end when it needed to, but Marcus Mariota had another fantastic day and is clearly the Heisman frontrunner.

4) Oklahoma (W-W vs. West Virginia 45-33)
Four TDs for Samaje Perine along with 242 yards shows that the Sooners have a new big time back in their backfield.

5) Auburn (W-L vs. Kansas State 20-14)
Auburn was the first of the Top 5 teams to struggle this week after winning by just six at KSU.

6) Baylor (Bye)

7) Texas A&M (W-W vs. SMU 58-6)
The real competition begins next week for the Aggies in the SEC.

8) LSU (L-L vs. Mississippi State 34-29)
The Tigers tried to rally, but they fell into too much of a hole against MSU.

9) Notre Dame (Bye)

10) UCLA (Bye)

11) Michigan State (W-W vs. Eastern Michigan 73-14)
Scoring double digits in all four quarters is a rarity for Michigan State. Giving up double digits in all four quarters is nothing new for Eastern Michigan.

12) Ole Miss (Bye)

13) Arizona State (Bye)

14) Georgia (W-W vs. Troy 66-0)
UGA really needed an easy one after the dismal performance against South Carolina two weeks ago.

15) Stanford (Bye)

16) South Carolina (W-L vs. Vanderbilt 48-24)
There were some scary moments when it was 14-0 early, but the Gamecocks rallied to outscore Vandy 48-20 down the stretch.

17) Wisconsin (W-W vs. Bowling Green 68-17)
The Badgers rumbled for a Big Ten record 644 yards against a hapless BGSU team.

18) Ohio State (Bye)

19) Missouri (L-L vs. Indiana 31-27)
Shame on the Tigers for not being able to put away a bad Indiana team.

20) Kansas State (L-W vs. Auburn 20-14)
K-State felt as though it had its sign stolen against Auburn, and that's why it was beaten.

21) USC (Bye)

22) Nebraska (W-W vs. Miami 41-31)
Take away the McNeese State game, and the Huskers have legitimately been a Top 10 type of team.

23) BYU (W-L vs. Virginia 41-33)
Could the Cougs be on the warpath to the college football playoff?

24) Clemson (L-W vs. Florida State 23-17)
The Tigers will long kick themselves in a game where they absolutely were better than the No. 1 team in the land.

25) North Carolina (L-L vs. East Carolina 70-41)
There's never an excuse to allow over 700 yards of offense in any game against any team.

[StarDust Bum]

AP Expanded Top 25

September 21, 2014


The Top Twenty Five teams in The Associated Press expanded college football poll, with first-place votes in parentheses, records through Sept. 20, points based on 25 points for a first place vote through one point for a 25th place vote, previous ranking, record vs. top 25 teams at time of game, record of opponents played, and extra points:


Record Pts Pv T25 Rec. Extra Points

1. Florida St. (34) 3-0 1,439 1 1-0 3-3 Winston watched from bench

2. Oregon (12) 4-0 1,400 2 1-0 8-3 Won a squeaker in Pullman

3. Alabama (6) 4-0 1,377 3 0-0 7-4 Sims 445 yds passing vs. Fla

4. Oklahoma (4) 4-0 1,343 4 0-0 7-3 RB Perine 242 yards, 4 TDs

5. Auburn 3-0 1,268 5 1-0 6-1 11-0-1 vs. La. Tech

6. Texas A&M (4) 4-0 1,232 6 1-0 6-4 2-3 in SEC plays vs. Backs

7. Baylor 3-0 1,143 7 0-0 4-4 6-6 vs. Cyclones

8. Notre Dame 3-0 967 9 0-0 4-4 3-3 vs. Orangemen

9. Michigan St. 2-1 905 11 0-1 6-2 73: Most points since 1989

10. Mississippi 3-0 889 10 0-0 5-4 18-2 at home vs. Tigers

11. UCLA 3-0 806 12 0-0 5-2 Who's the QB vs. Sun Devils?

12. Georgia 2-1 789 13 0-1 3-5 10-4 vs. Vols since 2000

13. South Carolina 3-1 764 14 1-1 9-2 2-2 vs. Mizzou

14. Mississippi St. 4-0 706 NR 1-0 8-2 Held off LSU rally for upset

15. Arizona St. 3-0 702 15 0-0 3-5 11-18-1 vs. Bruins

16. Stanford 2-1 564 16 0-1 3-3 7-3 last 10 vs. Huskies

17. LSU 3-1 541 8 1-0 8-2 Gave up 570 yards vs. MSU

18. Southern Cal 2-1 459 17 1-0 5-3 Next: OSU & ASU at home

19. Wisconsin 2-1 451 19 0-1 6-3 Record 644 yards rushing

20. BYU 4-0 376 21 0-0 6-5 Best start since 2008

21. Nebraska 4-0 296 24 0-0 5-5 8-2-1 vs. Illini

22. Ohio St. 2-1 196 23 0-0 3-5 13-2 vs. Bearcats

23. East Carolina 3-1 180 NR 1-1 7-4 Last ranking: 9-21-08

24. Oklahoma St. 2-1 132 25 0-1 6-1 10-8 at home vs. Red Raiders

25. Kansas St. 2-1 131 20 0-1 6-1 1-1 vs. Miners

Others receiving votes: Duke 86, Penn St. 81, Clemson 48, TCU 35, Marshall 33, Utah 31, Washington 30, Georgia Tech 22, Boston College 19, West Virginia 15, Cincinnati 11, Arizona 9, Arkansas 9, Missouri 5, Oregon St. 5, N. Dakota St. 3, Indiana 1, Pittsburgh 1.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF line watch: Grab Arkansas closer to kickoff

Spread to bet now

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville Cardinals (-20.5)

Louisville was featured in this space last week, and the Cardinals warrant the ink again this week. Louisville waxed Florida International 34-3 last Saturday, so they return home with momentum. Louisville opened as 21-point favorites over Wake Forest, so lay the three touchdowns now before the line goes up.

Wake Forest is a team in transition. The Demon Deacons are in their first year under head coach Dave Clawson, and he’s installing his pass-heavy schemes. They’ve been competitive thus far, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule. Louisville has too much offense, and with head coach Bobby Petrino’s knack for running up scores, bettors should play this game now in order to get the best of the number.


Spread to wait on

Arkansas Razorbacks (+8.5) at Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M opened as 10-point home favorites, and the initial money has come in on Arkansas, driving the line down to the current price of 8.5 and 9 in some spots. However, when the recreational bettors get involved later this week, this line is likely to tick upward.

Arkansas is remembered for last year’s miserable 3-9 SU season, so public bettors are reluctant to back the Razorbacks. That will be true in this game against No. 7 Texas A&M who is known for their high-scoring offense. The Aggies have won their four games by a combined score of 221-47 this season, so the betting public will be all over the Aggies as a single digit favorite. Wait this game out, and take Arkansas closer to kick off.


Total to watch

Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions

Northwestern’s offense has disappointed thus far; the Wildcats have only scored 24, 15, and 24 points in their three games. They’ve played all three of their games at home, and the pressure to perform has been too much. In their first road game, we can expect a looser and more aggressive approach.

Penn State’s defense has been stout so far this season, but the Nittany Lions have played an awful slate of opposing offenses. Penn State’s offense finally broke out with 48 points last week versus Massachusetts after facing strong opposing defenses earlier this month. Northwestern’s defense is poor, so expect another good offensive game from Penn State. The seasonal numbers will skew the oddsmakers total on this game, so it might be set lower than it should be.

[StarDust Bum]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 4

September 22, 2014


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fourth college football weekend. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Auburn (-7) 20, Kansas State 14: Thursday night featured one of the biggest games of the week and while it was a very competitive game it was not a pretty sight with sloppy play and both teams really struggling on offense most of the way. Kansas State took a 7-3 lead late in the second quarter after missing a few scoring chances early but Auburn was able to answer before the half with a 40-yard pass play for a touchdown to lead 10-7 at the break. With no scoring in the third quarter the underdog cover looked promising on a spread that dropped substantially Thursday. Early in the fourth Auburn completed a 15-play 80-yard drive to go up by 10 and an interception allowed the Tigers to add a field goal to go up 20-7 with less than seven minutes to go. Kansas State was able to punch in a touchdown quickly to get back into the game and within the spread but the Wildcats did not get the ball back with Auburn successfully running out the clock and ending the game in Kansas State territory after the Wildcats exhausted their timeouts.

Iowa (+6½) 24, Pittsburgh 20: Pittsburgh led 17-7 at the half with Iowa left for dead with an anemic offense so far this season. To start the third quarter Iowa delivered a 94-yard touchdown drive to get back in the game and then the Iowa defense held Pittsburgh to a short field goal to stay within six-points and within the underdog spread. Iowa connected on a 52-yard field goal to cut that margin in half in the final minute of the third quarter. Despite Pittsburgh having a substantial yardage edge for the game it was Iowa that connected for the go-ahead touchdown with about seven minutes to go in the game. Pittsburgh twice got into the Iowa territory in on the final two drives but the Hawkeyes held on defense for a minor upset.

Toledo (-14) 34, Ball State 23: The Rockets were in control most of the way in this game, up 20-3 after the first quarter but Ball State would climb back under the two-touchdown spread. Entering the fourth quarter Toledo led by just 11 but they went up by 18 with a touchdown with 10 minutes to go. Ball State answered to get back within 11 with six minutes to go for the backdoor cover and Toledo took a knee in the final seconds from the Ball State five-yard line with those on the Rockets shaking their heads.

Ohio (-10½) 36, Idaho 24: The middle was there for the taking on this game as Ohio dropped from a 14-point favorite down to just -10½ at kickoff in this non-conference clash Saturday night. It looked like the rout was on early with the Bobcats storming out to a 17-0 lead but by the start of the fourth quarter the Vandals had closed the deficit to just three points. With a field goal and a touchdown Ohio went up 29-17 but then failed going for two after scoring on a five-yard drive after a turnover, leaving the unusual 12-point margin. Idaho answered with a big pass play just a minute later to get within five but Ohio burned much of the remaining time on the clock with a nine-play drive resulting in a touchdown and Idaho’s final possession did not go anywhere.

Kansas (-5) 24, Central Michigan 10: The final score looks like a relatively comfortable win for Kansas but Central Michigan put up a strong fight and the game was tied 10-10 entering the fourth quarter as the Chippewas looked for their second major conference win of the season. With limited offensive success all night for both teams Kansas finally connected on a big play with a 60-yard touchdown pass to take a 17-10 lead early in the final frame and Central Michigan had three straight punts as the Kansas defense held. With less than two minutes on the clock Kansas connected for another touchdown pass of 30 yards to put the game away.

Duke (-16½) 47, Tulane 13: The Blue Devils were in control against Tulane but Duke led just 26-13 late in the third quarter before turnovers really started to burn the Wave. On Tulane’s next drive they were down to the Duke 24 yard line but came up a yard short going for it on 4th and 8. Tulane forced a Duke punt to get the ball back but the returner fumbled the ball to hand Duke great field position that got even better after a 1st down facemask penalty. Duke punched in a touchdown in the final seconds of the third quarter to take a 20-point lead into the fourth, just past the spread. With Duke down to the Tulane 12-yard line early in the fourth quarter, Tulane backers seemed to get the break they needed with a Duke fumble but four plays later the Blue Devils were in the end zone with an interception returned for a touchdown. The next Tulane drive ended with the same result with another pick-6 as Duke pulled away in a game in which the yardage was pretty even and Tulane had a 28-23 edge in first downs.

Wake Forest (+2½) 24, Army 21: Backing the Knights seemed popular in many circles with the line swinging several points and Army led 21-14 entering the fourth quarter. A Wake Forest offense that had done little all season played a great final quarter with a 15-play 70-yard drive for a field goal and a 11-play 84-yard touchdown drive to take the win. Army had a missed field goal right before halftime and had two second half fumbles to lose despite a huge rushing edge.

Michigan State (-43½) 73, Eastern Michigan 14: Michigan State led by 52 entering the fourth quarter but an interception set the Eagles up for a touchdown, trimming the margin to just 45 points and near the spread that was as high as +46 during the week before dropping late. Those with the courage to rely on the scrubs for the Spartans to put up meaningless points were rewarded with two late touchdowns, a 29-yard drive after the fifth of six Eastern Michigan turnovers and then an 80-yard run from reserve running back Delton Williams.

Memphis (-12) 36, Middle Tennessee State 17: Memphis dominated the rushing yards in this rivalry game but the Tigers had a bit of trouble pulling away. Middle Tennessee State had a field goal late in the third quarter to put the margin right on the closing spread at 12 as this line jumped from -7½ up to -13 before settling back at -12. In the fourth quarter two big plays allowed the Tigers to cover with a 50-yard pass play for a touchdown and a 59-yard fumble return touchdown as a late score from Middle Tennessee State would not be enough.

Southern Mississippi (+3) 21, Appalachian State 20: FBS newcomer Appalachian State had a massive yardage edge and nearly twice as many first downs but the Mountaineers had to dig out of a 14-0 deficit in this game. After the teams went scoreless for the first 24-plus minutes of the second half there were three touchdowns in the final 5:08. Appalachian State tied the game only to have Southern Miss answer with a 31-yard passing touchdown to lead by seven with just over two minutes to go. Appalachian State would manage to find the end zone with just six seconds on the clock but oddly the coaching staff decided not to go for the win and the two-point conversion on the road. The cowardly move was punished as the extra-point attempt was blocked adding to a nightmare day for kicker Zach Matics who went 0-3 on field goals in the game. The spread on this game shifted dramatically as Southern Miss opened as a 4-point favorite before the game eventually featured a full touchdown move. Appalachian State was still the winning side for those that played the game up until Friday night before the Mountaineers became the favorite.

Alabama (-14) 42, Florida 21: This huge SEC clash looked like a close game on the scoreboard most of the way despite Alabama featuring a more than 3:1 yardage edge. It was a tie game at 21-21 early in the fourth quarter but Florida had a defensive touchdown and the two offensive touchdowns came on very short drives after turnovers as well. Alabama scored twice late in the third quarter to pull away though it took a fourth quarter touchdown for the Tide to get past the spread and confirm a deserved cover in a game that they dominated statistically but had 11 penalties and four turnovers for some uncharacteristic sloppy play.

Houston (-20) 47, UNLV 14: Houston only led 30-14 entering the fourth quarter but the Cougars scored three touchdowns in the span of less than five minutes early in the final frame to earn the heavy favorite cover. The final two touchdowns came on a three-play drive and a one-play drive as the statistics were not overwhelming despite the lopsided win for the host.

BYU (-17) 41, Virginia 33: The spread on this game was -14 of -14½ much of the week before a late move right before kickoff. Despite trailing at halftime BYU led 27-16 entering the fourth quarter even though it was Virginia putting up far more yardage. After a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown halfway through the fourth quarter BYU was up by 15 points and past the favorite spread for many but with less than two minutes on the clock Virginia completed a 98-yard scoring drive to assure the underdog win.

Arkansas State (-2½) 21, Utah State 14: Utah State backers have had back-to-back tough beats as the Aggies lost in overtime as an underdog in this non-conference road game despite holding a substantial yardage edge. Utah State led 14-7 well into the fourth quarter but Arkansas State was able to equalize with about five minutes to go. Utah State drove in position for a game winning field goal in the final seconds but the kick was blocked. Arkansas State scored on the first play of overtime and then held on defense to escape with a win in a game where the Red Wolves have four turnovers and also had a missed field goal.

New Mexico (-5) 38, New Mexico State 35: The Aggies had a great opportunity to win in this series as they took a 35-31 lead with less than five minutes left on the clock. New Mexico seemed to stall but the Lobos were bailed out by a big pass interference call to set up the go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute on the clock. New Mexico was favored by just three much of the week before the line climbed late, so many wound up with a push.

[StarDust Bum]

Bad Company - Week 5

September 23, 2014

Heading into Week 5 of the college football season, there are plenty of play-against teams to keep an eye on. Several of these squads are still heavy underdogs, but some of them aren’t receiving as many points but are still poor clubs to back. This week, we’ll take a look at six squads who continue to underachieve and are strong looks to bet against.

Vanderbilt (+17) at Kentucky – 12:00 PM EST

The Commodores managed their first cover of the season in last week’s 48-34 home defeat to South Carolina as 23-point underdogs. Vandy grabbed an early 14-0 lead, but the Gamecocks scored 48 points in the final three quarters, while two touchdowns by the Commodores came on kickoff returns. Now, the Commodores hit the road for the first time following a 1-3 start, while allowing at least 31 points in each of the first four games.

Vanderbilt put together a 3-1 ATS record as a road underdog last season, heading to Lexington to battle a rested Wildcats’ team. Kentucky cashed as 17 ½-point ‘dogs in a triple-overtime setback at Florida two weeks ago, while easily covering in home blowouts of Tennessee-Martin and Ohio. The Wildcats have lost three straight games to Vanderbilt since 2011, as these teams normally face each other in November. Kentucky is favored for the first time in conference action since 2010, when the Wildcats last beat Vandy, 38-20 as 17-point ‘chalk.’

Tulane (+11 ½) at Rutgers – 12:00 PM EST

The Scarlet Knights are coming off a strong effort in last Saturday’s 31-24 victory at Navy as six-point underdogs after their heartbreaking loss to Penn State. Rutgers hosts a Tulane squad that hung with Duke last week before the Blue Devils outscored the Green Wave, 28-6 in the second half, capped off by a pair of interception returns for touchdowns.

The Green Wave hits the highway again this Saturday, as Tulane has allowed at least 38 points in each of its three losses. Last season, Tulane posted a 7-2 ATS record as an underdog, but the Wave isn’t having the same luck this season with an 0-3 ATS mark when receiving points. Rutgers has covered in three of its four contests, but all three ATS victories have come in the underdog role. The lone non-cover for the Scarlet Knights came in 38-25 win over Howard as heavy 38-point favorites.

SMU (+32 ½) vs. TCU – 12:00 PM EST

How many points is too many points to lay against SMU? To review, the Mustangs were 31 ½-point underdogs in a 45-0 shutout at Baylor to open the season. SMU followed up that dreadful performance with a 43-6 drubbing at North Texas as 2 ½-point ‘dogs, then were wiped out at home by Texas A&M as 33 ½-point ‘dogs, 58-6. Now, the Mustangs will try to hang around with their Metroplex rival, as SMU has put up just one touchdown in 12 quarters, which came on the final play of the loss at North Texas.

The Horned Frogs have gone through each of their two bye weeks already, while owning a 2-0 SU/ATS record. TCU struggled last season with a 4-8 record, but has picked up blowout victories over Samford and Minnesota to start this season. Prior history doesn’t mean much with SMU’s horrible start, but TCU has won six of the past seven meetings in this series, while the Mustangs have covered five times as a double-digit underdog.

Akron (+20) at Pittsburgh – 1:30 PM EST

The Zips began the season with some promise by blowing out Howard, 41-0 as 25-point favorites. Then Akron stepped up in class and dropped a pair of games to Penn State (21-3) and Marshall (48-17), while not covering either contest as a double-digit underdog. Both of Akron’s touchdowns last week against Marshall came in the fourth quarter, as the Zips snapped a seven-quarter streak of being held out of the end zone.

Pittsburgh suffered its first loss of the season in a 24-20 home defeat to Iowa, as the Panthers blew a 17-7 lead. The Panthers outgained the Hawkeyes, 435-311, as Pitt has out-yarded each of its four opponents by at least 120 yards. Since 2012, Pittsburgh has covered six of its past nine games as a favorite at Heinz Field, while putting together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record in its previous five home contests off a loss.

Kent State (+23 ½) at Virginia – 3:30 PM EST

The Cavaliers were the worst team in the ACC last season, but have put together two solid performances the last two weeks against Louisville and BYU. UVA upset Louisville as a short four-point home underdog, while covering as 14 ½-point ‘dogs in a 41-33 defeat at BYU to improve to 4-0 ATS this season.

Kent State has been anything but flashy this season, coming off a 66-0 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State two weeks ago. The Golden Flashes have just 27 points in three losses, while dropping eight of their past 10 games since last October. How bad has it been for Kent State on the road against non-conference opponents since the start of 2013? Opponents have outscored the Golden Flashes, 183-34, as Kent State lost to LSU, Penn State, South Alabama, and Ohio State, while covering just once.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Tip Sheet

September 23, 2014


The Thursday night college football schedule features three games this week highlighted by key matchups in the Big XII and Pac-12. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State face off in an opening conference game for both teams after 2-1 starts to the season and this will be a key game in the conference pecking order for two programs expected to slide a bit downward this season despite great success in the last decade.

Matchup: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma
Date: Thursday, September 25, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: Oklahoma State -14
Last Meeting: 2013, Oklahoma State (PK) 52-34 at Texas Tech

Both teams were ranked in the top 18 of the polls last season when Oklahoma State visited the then 7-1 Red Raiders last season. Texas Tech had just suffered its first loss of the season to Oklahoma in a tight game and Oklahoma State stormed out to a 21-0 lead before Texas Tech crept within four by halftime with the help of a defensive touchdown. Ultimately the balanced offense for Oklahoma State was too much as the Cowboys pulled away in a game where Texas Tech had more yards.

That loss wound up being the second of five straight losses to close the regular season for Texas Tech after a 7-0 start but the Red Raiders did get a redeeming Holiday Bowl win over Arizona State. Oklahoma State wound up with a 10-2 regular season but they surrendered the Big XII title and a possible BCS bowl spot losing to Oklahoma in the season finale and then wound up losing to Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. With the season opening loss to Florida State this year it marked the first time since Mike Gundy’s first season in 2005 that the program had lost three consecutive games.

With very few starters back from last season’s team most have projected a fall for Oklahoma State this season and the Cowboys were a heavy underdog in the opening week game with Florida State in Arlington. Oklahoma State lost but earned a lot of respect in the defeat, taking the defending national champions down to the wire in a 37-31 game, rallying back from an early 17-0 deficit. Oklahoma State responded with wins in the next two weeks, although the 40-23 win over FCS Missouri State was not thoroughly impressive. The 43-13 win over Texas San Antonio was much more credible however as the Roadrunners have a strong veteran team that beat Houston and took Arizona to a three-point game in their other contests.

Junior quarterback J.W. Walsh was given a shot to start for the Cowboys last season but he eventually conceded the lead role to Clint Chelf. After a strong opening game this season Walsh unfortunately injured his foot in the game versus Missouri State, leaving junior Daxx Garman in charge of the Cowboys offense. Garman has filled in admirably with 559 passing yards and no interceptions but he is nowhere near the rushing threat that Walsh was and the competition will escalate in Big XII play.

Oklahoma State will face a Texas Tech defense that has allowed nearly 37 points per game this season despite a reasonably favorable schedule. Allowing 49 points against Arkansas is one thing but UTEP posted 26 points and Central Arkansas posted 35 points in narrow wins for the Red Raiders. The defensive staff is in flux right now as defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt resigned last week with speculation that the move was related to substance abuse rather than performance. Outside linebackers coach Mike Smith has taken over the defense for the rest of the season under second year head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

Texas Tech still possesses one of the great passing offenses in the nation and sophomore quarterback Davis Webb has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards in three games. He does have four interceptions already this season and he did struggle with less than 55 percent completions in his lone road start this season. The Red Raiders are aiming to be a bit more balanced offensively this season so far rushing for over 170 yards per game after averaging fewer than 120 yards per game on the ground last season.

For both teams the strength of the team and the coaching staff are on offense and both teams returned very few key experienced players on defense this season. Over the last three seasons this matchup has averaged nearly 80 points per game with Oklahoma State now having won and covered in five straight seasons in this series and another higher scoring game seems likely to kick off the college football weekend.

Line Movement: The line opened at -15 before falling to -13 and bouncing back to -14.

Texas Tech Historical Trends: Texas Tech has lost S/U & ATS in five straight meetings in this series while going 1-8 ATS vs. Oklahoma State since 2005. The Red Raiders are 6-13 ATS as a road underdog since 2005 and 4-12 ATS coming off a S/U loss since 2011. The Red Raiders are just 3-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2010.

Oklahoma State Historical Trends: Oklahoma State is 85-62-1 ATS at home since 2002 and 41-18 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2002. In that span Oklahoma State is impressively 29-10 ATS as a double-digit home favorite. The Cowboys are 4-0 S/U & ATS in the last four home meetings with Texas Tech going back to 2005.

There are two additional Thursday night games this week:

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ET (ESPNU)
Line: Georgia Southern -16

These FBS newcomers played regularly as Southern Conference members at the FCS level. Georgia Southern is the heavy favorite this week and this is a team that has made some noise already this season with a 2-2 start including a 28-6 win at South Alabama last week while also giving great scares to both NC State and Georgia Tech in narrow losses.

It is Appalachian State that has won the last three meetings between these programs however, including a 38-14 win last season with the Mountaineers posting 515 yards against the Eagles team that would eventually upset Florida late last season. Appalachian State is 1-2 this season with only a win over lowly FCS Campbell. In the hyped opening game with Michigan the Mountaineers did not compete well and last week with a great opportunity for a win the Mountaineers fell 21-20 against Southern Miss on the road. That was a game where Appalachian State had significant yardage edges and many great scoring opportunities but wound up missing three field goals. Despite the kicking woes the Mountaineers went for the tie upon scoring late and the cowardly move was punished with a blocked extra point to seal the defeat.

Georgia Southern is rushing for 357 yards per game this season, the second best mark nationally at this point in the season and this is even with the loss of running back Jerick McKinnon to the NFL. Appalachian State has been a bit more balanced and last week highly regarded redshirt freshman quarterback Taylor Lamb got his first start and played the full game, leading a productive attack but one that failed to cash in on several opportunities.


UCLA at Arizona State 10:00 PM ET (FOX1)
Line: UCLA -5½

Two undefeated Pac-12 South contenders face off Thursday night in what should be one of the bigger games of the Pac-12 season but injuries have soured the appeal of the game. UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has been banged up with an elbow issue but is expected to play but senior Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly has been ruled out with a foot injury. Kelly had a brilliant season leading the Sun Devils to the division title last season and he will be replaced by senior Mike Bercovici who has played sparingly.

Last season Arizona State won 38-33 at UCLA in a matchup of top 20 teams late in the season in a game that clinched the division title for the Sun Devils. Arizona State had a modest yardage edge but benefitted from a defensive touchdown to build a 35-13 lead at halftime before UCLA made a valiant comeback that fell just short. UCLA opened the season projected as a national title contender but in a 3-0 S/U and 0-3 ATS start the Bruins have had underwhelming offensive numbers. The schedule has featured quality opposition but more was expected of a team with great experience coming off last season’s 10-3 campaign highlighted by blowout wins over USC and Virginia Tech to close the year.

Outside of Kelly the Sun Devils have one of the least experienced teams in the conference but Todd Graham did pull in some quality transfers to boost the squad. Arizona State is 3-0 but the schedule has been weak and the defense has looked vulnerable against questionable competition. UCLA has covered in eight of the last 11 meetings in this series but Arizona State has won S/U in four of the last seven meetings and the Bruins are just 25-37 ATS as a road favorite since 1988.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 5

September 23, 2014

Thursday, September 27

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


APP STATE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN
App has won this game SU the past three seasons. But GSU quick 4-0 vs. line from gate in 2014.
GSU, based on recent trends.


TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA STATE
Red Raiders have now dropped eight straight vs. line in reg. season. They've also lost and failed to cover last five vs. OSU. Gundy 36-18-1 vs. line since 2010, 16-7 as Stillwater chalk that span.
OSU, based on team and series trends.


UCLA at ARIZONA STATE
Bruins 0-3 vs. line TY. Todd Graham 9-5 vs. line as Tempe chalk since 2012, 6-3 as Pac-12 home chalk.
Slight to ASU, based on recent trends.


Friday, September 26

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at OLD DOMINION
MTSU 3-1 vs. line in 2014 including 2-0 on road. ODU 0-1 as chalk TY.
MTSU, based on team trends.


FRESNO STATE at NEW MEXICO
FSU now 5-12-1 last 18 on board since late 2012. But Bulldogs did win and cover last two years vs. Lobos and dropped 69-point bomb on Davie last season. UNM no covers last four as home dog.
Fresno, based on series trends.


Saturday, September 27

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


WYOMING at MICHIGAN STATE
Dantonio just 5-10 last 15 as East Lansing chalk and 2-5 last 7 vs. number hosting non-Big 10 foes. Wyo 18-6 as visiting dog since 2009 (1-0 TY for Bohl).
Wyo, based on team trends.


MINNESOTA at MICHIGAN
Little Brown Jug. Hoke has won and covered big vs. Kill past three years, all wins by 22 or more. Gophers 6-3 last nine as dog.
Slight to Michigan, based on recent series trends.


MARYLAND at INDIANA
IU just 4-6 vs. line last 10 at Bloomington. Terps 8-5 vs. mark last 12 as visitor.
Maryland, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at IOWA STATE
Bears 3-0 SU and vs. line TY, also 1-0 as road chalk, a role that had been tough previous for Briles (1-6 previous three years). Baylor now 29-12 last 41 on board. Home team has won and covered last five meetings since 2008 (no game in 2010).
Baylor, based on team trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at WISCONSIN
As bad as USF was last season in Taggart Tampa debut, Bulls still covered 4 of 5 as road dog. Andersen 6-3 as DD chalk with Badgers since 2013 but only 1-4 last five vs. line overall.
Slight to USF, based on road dog numbers.


KENT STATE at VIRGINIA
KSU 5-12 vs. number last 17 on board since late 2012. Cavs have covered first four this season, though Mike London only 3-8-1 last 12 as Charlottesville chalk.
Slight to Virginia, based on recent trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at VIRGINIA TECH
Beamer 6-13-1 last 20 as home chalk and 14-29-1 last 44 on board. Also 4-13-1 last 18 as DD chalk. WMU 6-2 as visiting dog for P.J. Fleck since LY.
WMU, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at UCONN
Temple 6-1 vs. spread away for Rhule (6-0 as dog and 0-1 as chalk). Huskies 0-4 vs. line in Diaco debut, 0-2 as home dog after 19-4 mark in role 2005-13.
Temple, based on team trends.


AKRON at PITT
Panthers 6-3 as home chalk for Paul Chryst, Zips 2-4 last six as DD dog for Bowden.
Pitt, based on recent trends.


IOWA at PURDUE
Note that road team has won and covered last three years in series. Purdue 2-7 vs. line at Ross-Ade since Hazell arrived LY. Hawkeyes 3-0 as road chalk since 2013.
Iowa, based on team trends.


TULANE at RUTGERS
Wave 10-7 vs. spread since 2013. Gers 2-7 last 9 as home chalk.
Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.


NORTHWESTERN at PENN STATE
James Franklin 3-1 vs. line at PSU, 28-15 vs. spread since 2011 with Vandy & Nittany Lions but lost to Pat Fitz and NU in 2012. Franklin teams are 10-3 as home chalk that span. PSU has won and covered last five in series dating to 2006 (including last three years). Cats on 1-11 spread slump.
Penn State, based on series and James Franklin trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at TOLEDO
Rockets have won and covered last four years vs. Chips, and UT 5-1 last six as Glass Bowl chalk. CMU, however, has covered five straight on road.
Toledo, based on series trends.


VANDERBILT at KENTUCKY
Dismissing Vandy's James Franklin numbers, also downplaying Vandy's three straight wins and covers vs. UK, which is 3-0 vs. line in 2014.
Kentucky, based on current trends.


WAKE FOREST at LOUISVILLE
Petrino 2-0 vs. line at home in 2014, Deacs 9-16 last 25 as road dog.
Louisville, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at BOSTON COLLEGE
CSU 5-2 last seven as dog away from home for McElwain, also 15-5 last 20 on board since late 2012. BC 6-1 as home chalk since 2012.
CSU, based on extended trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at BUFFALO
Bulls 1-5 vs. line last six since late 2013. Buffalo won over Miami 44-7 LY but RedHawks had covered three previous meetings. Miami 3-1 vs. line early TY.
Miami-Ohio, based on recent trends.


TEXAS STATE at TULSA
Tulsa 4-11 vs. line since 2013, 1-4 last five as home chalk.
Texas State, based on team trends.


UTEP at KANSAS STATE
Bill Snyder 27-14-1 vs. line since 2011. Also 11-5 last 16 vs. mark at Manhattan. UTEP 1-6 as DD dog since 2013 for Kugler (but 1-0 TY).
K-State, based on team trends.


LA TECH at AUBURN
Malzahn had covered 13 straight prior to K-State. But La Tech now 3-0 vs. line for Skip Holtz as road dog TY.
Slight to Auburn, based on recent trends.


BOWLING GREEN at UMASS
This game on UMass campus at McGuirk Stadium. BGSU 6-1 last 7 as visiting chalk (but 0-1 for Babes).
Slight to BGSU, based on team trends.


COLORADO at CAL
Cal 3-0 vs. line TY after 2-10 spread mark in 2013. Bears 1-0 as Berkeley chalk TY after 0-4 mark previous. MacIntyre teams 16-7 last 23 as dog at SJSU & CU (1-0 TY).
Slight to Cal, based on recent trends.


TCU at SMU
Ponies 0-3 SU and vs. line TY Frogs 0-4 as visiting chalk since 2012 but have covered four straight overall since late 2013.
TCU, based on recent trends.


RICE at SOUTHERN MISS
Rice 9-5 vs. line last 14 as visitor (1-1 TY), Bailiff also 14-8 as chalk since 2008. USM on 7-21 spread slump (and 3-25 SU) since Larry Fedora left town after 2011.
Rice, based on team trends.


MISSOURI at SOUTH CAROLINA
Only Tiger home loss LY inflicted by Spurrier. SC has won and covered both meetings since 2012, but Pinkel has covered last five and 8 of last 9 as visitor, however.
Slight to Mizzou, based in recent Pinkel road marks.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at NAVY
Home team has covered first three WKU games TY (Tops 0-2 away). Navy looks to avenge LY's 19-7 loss on road. Mids on 12-5 spread run since 2013 and have covered 7 of last 10 as chalk.
Navy, based on recent trends.


NOTRE DAME vs. SYRACUSE (at Meadowlands)
Irish just 3-6 vs. spread last nine away from South Bend. Cuse 5-2-1 last eight as dog.
Syracuse, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
Sumlin 2-0 SU, 1-1 vs. line against Hogs. Bielema has covered 3 of last 4 away from home all at tough sites.
Slight to Arkansas, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at SOUTHERN CAL
Note that Sark ran up 69-27 score on Riley LY. But Beavers are 7-0 as visiting dog the past two seasons. Trojans 2-1 vs. line TY but 12-18 since 2012.
OSU, based on Riley road dog trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON
Teams haven't met since 2011. Heels 0-4 as visiting dog past two seasons and are 2-8 vs. points as visitor since 2012.
Slight to Clemson, based on recent trends.


STANFORD at WASHINGTON
Huskies have covered the past two vs. Tree and won SU in 2012 at Seahawks stadium. David Shaw 13-4 vs. spread as visitor since 2011, however, and Chris Petersen 1-3 as dog with Boise LY. Huskies also 1-3 as dog in 2013.
Stanford, based on Shaw road marks.


TEXAS at KANSAS
Weis covered last two years vs. Mack. Horns 1-3 last four as visiting chalk. Weis though just 3-7 last nine vs. line at home and covers just one of last five since late 2013.
Slight to Texas, based on Weis woes.


TENNESSEE at GEORGIA
Vols have covered last two years in series, but Butch Jones just 6-9 vs. line with Vols and UT 14-25 vs. line since 2011.
Slight to Georgia, based on recent series trends.


DUKE at MIAMI-FLORIDA
Al Golden 2-10 last 12 on board. Cutcliffe 13-4-1 vs. spread since LY and 6-2 last 8 as dog.
Duke, based on recent trends.


FLORIDA STATE at NC STATE
FSU 0-3 vs. line TY. Last year, NCS was one of only two Nole spread Ls in regular season. Wolfpack has actually covered 8 of last 9 meetings!
NCS, based on extended series trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA at IDAHO
Jags have covered 5 of last 7 away from Mobile. Vandals 2-9 vs. line last 11 at Kibbie.
USA, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI at OHIO STATE
Tuberville 2-0 as road dog LY but he was only 5-10 as dog previous three years at Texas Tech.
Slight to OSU, based on extended Tuberville dog marks.


FIU at UAB
FIU 3-1 vs. line and UAB 2-1 vs. line in 2014, but FIU 2-4 as road dog or Turner.
Slight to UAB, based on recent FIU road dog marks.


MEMPHIS at OLE MISS
Nearby foes. Tigers 3-0 vs. line TY but Ole Miss also 3-0, pushing Hugh Freeze spread numbers to 30-11 since 2011 at Ark State. Freeze 6-2 as DD chalk with Rebs.
Ole Miss, based on Freeze marks.


UTSA at FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Coker 13-6 last 19 on board with UTSA. And 10-4 last 14 vs. line as visitor. But FAU 19-6 last 25 overall vs. spread.
Slight to UTSA, based on Coker road marks.


TROY at UL-MONROE
ULM has won and covered last three meetings , but 3-7 as home chalk since 2012.
Slight to ULM, based on series trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at UTAH
Leach was 5-0 as visiting dog LY, though home team has covered last three in series. Utes 3-0 SU and vs. spread in 2014.
Slight to WSU, based on recent Leach road dog mark.


BOISE STATE at AIR FORCE
Force 5-17 vs. line last 22 at Falcon Stadium. Harsin teams at Ark State & Boise are 10-2 last ten vs. line since late 2013, and Broncs 23-9 as visiting chalk since 2008.
Boise, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at LSU
Hat only 6-9 last 15 laying 20 or more and 4-6-1 last 11 vs. line hosting non-SEC. But Ags only 8-19 last 27 getting 20 or more and are 2-9-1 since 2012 as road dog.
LSU, based on NMSU negatives

ILLINOIS at NEBRASKA
Bo Pelini won and covered 39-19 LY. Huskers 11-6 last 16 as Lincoln chalk, also 9-5 overall last 14 laying DD. Illini 1-8 as road dog for Beckman since 2012.
Nebraska, based on team trends.


UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE
Hauck has covered last two in series but Rebs just 7-21 vs. spread away from Sam Boyd since Bobby arrived in 2010. Rocky Long 5-8 as DD chalk since 2011 but 8-3-1 last 12 on board.
SDSU, based on UNLV road woes.


NEVADA at SAN JOSE STATE
SJSU 3-4 vs. line at home since Pack 4-1 vs. line last five since late LY.
Nevada, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Quarterly Report

September 24, 2014


As we move into Week 5, it's time to take inventory of what's transpired during the 2014 college football season so far.

Let's examine a few of the top contenders (in no particular order) to get started.

**Contenders**

1. Alabama -- Most pundits, including this one, felt like Florida State transfer Jacob Coker would win the starting quarterback job. However, Blake Sims has clearly become the man after leading 'Bama to four consecutive wins, including a 42-21 thrashing of Florida this past weekend. Sims threw for 446 yards and he's feeding the nation's leading receiver (Amari Cooper) like the 'hoss' (Southern term) that he is. As we suggested all summer, Alabama's path to the College Football Playoff is easier -- scheduling-wise -- than any other SEC squad's.

2. Florida State -- The Seminoles are fortunate to still be unbeaten and you get the sense that it's just a matter of time. Jimbo Fisher's team got all it wanted and more from Oklahoma St. in the season opener at AT&T Stadium, escaping with a 37-31 win. Then this past weekend with its star QB suspended for yet another knucklehead off-the-field decision, FSU needed overtime (and a short missed field goal by Clemson in regulation) to slip past its ACC adversary, 23-17, at Doak Campbell Stadium. Jimbo Fisher's team falls into a letdown spot this week in Raleigh, where it has lost outright in three of its last four visits.

3. Auburn -- Speaking of good fortune, Gus Malzahn's team got plenty of it in the form of three missed field goals and a dropped TD pass that turned into an interception in last Thursday's 20-14 win at Kansas St. Whatever the case, one of five daunting road assignments is in the books for Auburn, which still has road games at Mississippi St., Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. Malzahn is one quirky dude, but he can damn sure coach. Even though the schedule looks like a killer, AU can't be counted out.

4. Oregon -- Marcus Mariota has been nothing short of sensational and that has been mandatory for the Ducks to remain unbeaten. Mariota guided Oregon to 28 unanswered points after trailing Michigan St. 27-18 with five minutes left in the third quarter in Eugene. Then last Saturday, Mariota had to throw five TD passes without being intercepted for his team to escape Pullman with a 38-31 win over Wazzu. The Pac-12 is deep this year and there's only one lay-up (vs. Colorado on Nov. 22) left on the slate.

5. Oklahoma -- Bob Stoops's squad faces its toughest road game of the season on Oct. 4 at TCU. The Sooners have looked good and if they survive the Horned Frogs, somebody is going to have to beat them in Norman to keep them out of the College Football Playoff.

6. Baylor -- The Bears have the nation's No. 1 offense despite missing a slew of key skill players in their first three games. The catch? They've played absolutely nobody. The bright side? The injured players are on their way back and regardless of the opponents, they have looked nasty enough to beat anybody.

7. Texas A&M -- This just in: Kevin Sumlin can coach. Kenny Hill would probably finish second if a Heisman vote was counted today. The Dallas Southlake High School product has a 13/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Check out this looming four-week stretch: vs. Arkansas (in Arlington), at Mississippi St., vs. Ole Miss and at Alabama. The defense is still a question mark and this unit will find out about its run defense Saturday against the Razorbacks.

Other teams most likely to be in the mix come early November: Georgia, Michigan State and Stanford.

**Pretenders**

1. Notre Dame - Trust me, it isn't happening. I'm not even sure the Irish will win nine games.

2. USC - The fan base got a big boost when Stanford beat itself (over and over and over again...) in Palo Alto earlier this month. However, the optimism was crushed at Boston College the following week. The depth just isn't there and although the schedule doesn't look overly daunting, the Trojans have at least two more losses left on the regular-season slate.

3. Nebraska - The Cornhuskers have, to their credit, taken advantage of the easy schedule here early on, but their comeuppance awaits in East Lansing on Oct. 4. They'll lose at Camp Randall on Nov. 15, too. They could sweep a pair of road games at Northwestern and at Iowa, but a split is more likely.

**What to make of this trio?**

1. East Carolina - If QB Shane Carden isn't careful, he's going to end up in New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist. He has the country's most underrated set of wide receivers, including the school's all-time leading receiver in Justin Hardy. ECU lost a tight game at South Carolina, but it has responded by winning at Va. Tech and blasting North Carolina for a second straight year. The Pirates put a 70-spot up on UNC's face and has scored 125 points against the Tar Heels in back-to-back wins the last two years.

2. BYU - The Cougars might be favored in the rest of their games, although we're not implying that it's ever easy to win on the smurf turf in Boise. UCF looked terrible in a loss at Missouri two weeks ago, but a cross-country trip to Orlando on a short week won't be easy, either. BYU has to go on the road to face an improved California team in the regular-season finale, too. With that said, Taysom Hill and Co. might go undefeated and if they do, it might sneak into the College Football Playoff if multiple contenders go down in upset fashion in November.

3. Mississippi State - My best 'over' (7.5) season win total is looking good early, especially after winning at LSU last weekend for the first time since 1991. QB Dak Prescott has been as advertised, but he'll have to play without his starting center (Dillon Day, 38 career starts, one-game suspension from SEC) next week against Texas A&M in Starkville. If the Bulldogs can split back-to-back home games (after an open date) vs. the Aggies and Auburn, they'll have a great shot at being 8-1 going into Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15.

**We're about to find out**

1. Ole Miss: vs. Alabama (Oct. 4).

2. Arkansas: vs. Texas A&M in Arlington on Saturday.

3. TCU: vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 4).

4. Duke: at Miami on Saturday, at Ga. Tech on Oct. 11.

5. Cincinnati: at Ohio St. on Saturday.

6. South Carolina: vs. Missouri on Saturday.

**Disappointments**

1. Michigan - Brady Hoke is in big trouble. Michigan took cream-cheese treatment at Notre Dame. It has the worst turnover margin (-10) in the country. The Wolverines lost outright -- this time by double digits -- to Utah at The Big House for the second time in a decade. It's all entirely too much for the locals in Ann Arbor to handle. The new coaching search is unofficially underway.

2. Ohio State - Sure, expectations went way down when Braxton Miller's shoulder gave out, but still, look at what's happened to Va. Tech since it went to Columbus and won by double digits. The Buckeyes are basically done in September and that just wasn't a good look from the head coach on HBO's 'Real Sports' last night.

3. UCLA - Has an undefeated preseason top-10 team ever looked so shaky? The Bruins are lucky that Arizona St. star QB Taylor Kelly is injured for Thursday's showdown in Tempe. Nevertheless, with QB Brett Hundley and LB/RB Myles Jack banged up, UCLA will still be on upset alert against the Sun Devils.

4. Miami, Fl. - The former players want Al Golden out in Coral Gables. The 'Canes still haven't gone to an ACC Championship Game. They might lose at home to Duke this weekend. If they do, sign up for a one-day follow of those UM/NFL alums on twitter if you're looking for amusement.