Tweet
NCAAF opening line report: Rested Seminoles big home faves versus Clemson
Florida State hasn’t lost since Week 13 of the 2012 season, when the Seminoles tumbled to in-state rival Florida 37-26 as a 7-point home favorite.
Since then, Jimbo Fisher’s troops have peeled off 18-straight victories, including last year’s national championship game.
But they haven’t been awe-inspiring so far this season. The ‘Noles barely held off Oklahoma State 37-31 as a hefty 18-point neutral-site fave in Week 1, then beat the Citadel 37-12 while laying a whopping 58.5 points at home in Week 2.
Now, top-ranked Florida State hosts No. 22 Clemson, as a 19-point favorite, with both teams rested and the Tigers (1-1 SU and ATS) surely still smarting from a 51-14 home shellacking last year at the hands of the Seminoles.
But John Lester, lines manager at bookmaker.eu, leans toward Florida State.
“It’s a matchup where both teams are coming off byes, which both needed in order to mend wounds,” Lester said. “We all remember the dismantling of Clemson by FSU last year, and this one is at Tallahassee. There are some concerns with the ‘Noles defense, particularly the health of the front seven, but I don’t see the Tigers being able to keep enough points off the board.”
Auburn Tigers (-8.5) at Kansas State Wildcats
It’s a Thursday night contest featuring two ranked teams in No. 5 Auburn (2-0 SU and ATS) and No. 20 Kansas State (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS), and Lester said there’s some value in the home underdog.
“It’s a couple of teams coming off idle weeks, and it’s a juicy matchup of two different option systems,” Lester said. “I have the utmost respect for Kansas State coach Bill Snyder. He’s familiar with Auburn coach Gus Malzahn and quarterback Nick Marshall, because he wanted both at his program.
“The public will be backing the sexy top-5 squad, but my money would be on the home dog.”
Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide (-15.5)
The second-ranked Crimson Tide have gotten off to a 3-0 SU start this year, but they’ve failed to cash in any of those games, laying huge numbers – 22 in a 33-23 home win over West Virginia, 42 in a 41-0 shutout of Florida Atlantic, and a 52-12 rout giving 47 points to visiting Southern Mississippi.
Florida (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) is coming off a 36-30 home victory over Kentucky, falling well short as 17.5-point chalk.
“Do you get the feeling that ‘Bama is sleep-walking through this season thus far?” Lester said, showing concern with the two-quarterback system of Blake Sims and Jake Coker. “At the very least, it’s unsettling that they are experimenting with two guys under center. As the old adage goes, ‘If you have two quarterbacks, you don’t really have one.’ The Tide haven’t covered in a while (0-6-1 ATS last seven), so maybe they’re due, maybe not. Sharps will like the under in this one.”
Oklahoma Sooners (-11.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers
The fourth-ranked Sooners (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) leave their home state for the first time this season, and the Mountaineers (2-1 SU) have cashed in all three of their games this year, with their only SU loss coming in a 33-23 Week 1 setback catching 22 points at Alabama.
“Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight and the offense get a lot of pub, but this is a really good OU defense. I love that they’ve switched to the 3-4, and (defensive tackle) Jordan Phillips is an absolute beast on the inside,” Lester said. “We mostly saw Sooner money in the Tennessee game (a 34-10 win with Oklahoma a 21-point fave), so people are drinking the Kool-Aid. Keep that in mind.”
Florida State hasn’t lost since Week 13 of the 2012 season, when the Seminoles tumbled to in-state rival Florida 37-26 as a 7-point home favorite.
Since then, Jimbo Fisher’s troops have peeled off 18-straight victories, including last year’s national championship game.
But they haven’t been awe-inspiring so far this season. The ‘Noles barely held off Oklahoma State 37-31 as a hefty 18-point neutral-site fave in Week 1, then beat the Citadel 37-12 while laying a whopping 58.5 points at home in Week 2.
Now, top-ranked Florida State hosts No. 22 Clemson, as a 19-point favorite, with both teams rested and the Tigers (1-1 SU and ATS) surely still smarting from a 51-14 home shellacking last year at the hands of the Seminoles.
But John Lester, lines manager at bookmaker.eu, leans toward Florida State.
“It’s a matchup where both teams are coming off byes, which both needed in order to mend wounds,” Lester said. “We all remember the dismantling of Clemson by FSU last year, and this one is at Tallahassee. There are some concerns with the ‘Noles defense, particularly the health of the front seven, but I don’t see the Tigers being able to keep enough points off the board.”
Auburn Tigers (-8.5) at Kansas State Wildcats
It’s a Thursday night contest featuring two ranked teams in No. 5 Auburn (2-0 SU and ATS) and No. 20 Kansas State (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS), and Lester said there’s some value in the home underdog.
“It’s a couple of teams coming off idle weeks, and it’s a juicy matchup of two different option systems,” Lester said. “I have the utmost respect for Kansas State coach Bill Snyder. He’s familiar with Auburn coach Gus Malzahn and quarterback Nick Marshall, because he wanted both at his program.
“The public will be backing the sexy top-5 squad, but my money would be on the home dog.”
Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide (-15.5)
The second-ranked Crimson Tide have gotten off to a 3-0 SU start this year, but they’ve failed to cash in any of those games, laying huge numbers – 22 in a 33-23 home win over West Virginia, 42 in a 41-0 shutout of Florida Atlantic, and a 52-12 rout giving 47 points to visiting Southern Mississippi.
Florida (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) is coming off a 36-30 home victory over Kentucky, falling well short as 17.5-point chalk.
“Do you get the feeling that ‘Bama is sleep-walking through this season thus far?” Lester said, showing concern with the two-quarterback system of Blake Sims and Jake Coker. “At the very least, it’s unsettling that they are experimenting with two guys under center. As the old adage goes, ‘If you have two quarterbacks, you don’t really have one.’ The Tide haven’t covered in a while (0-6-1 ATS last seven), so maybe they’re due, maybe not. Sharps will like the under in this one.”
Oklahoma Sooners (-11.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers
The fourth-ranked Sooners (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) leave their home state for the first time this season, and the Mountaineers (2-1 SU) have cashed in all three of their games this year, with their only SU loss coming in a 33-23 Week 1 setback catching 22 points at Alabama.
“Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight and the offense get a lot of pub, but this is a really good OU defense. I love that they’ve switched to the 3-4, and (defensive tackle) Jordan Phillips is an absolute beast on the inside,” Lester said. “We mostly saw Sooner money in the Tennessee game (a 34-10 win with Oklahoma a 21-point fave), so people are drinking the Kool-Aid. Keep that in mind.”
Comment