The Bum's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday's games
Third straight road game for Louisiana Tech, which allowed 852 yards in splitting first two games; Tech is 9-4 vs spread in last 13 games as a road underdog, 2-0 this year- they lost 28-13 (+3) at home to North Texas LY, getting outrushed 165-37. North Texas hammered SMU 43-6 last week after getting waxed at Texas; Mean Green covered eight of ten as a home favorite under McCarney. UNT has only nine starters back from LY- both teams have new QBs this season.

BYU (-10) won 47-46 at Houston LY, ringing up 41 first downs while outgaining Coogs 681-483. BYU scored 76 points in opening road wins at Cincy/Texas- they have 453 rushing yards in two games. Houston got upset at home by UTSA in opener when they had six turnovers, then whacked a I-AA team last week; they're 13-7 as road dogs since '05, 4-1 under Levine. BYU is 14-8 as home favorites last four years; they have junior QB with 17 starts. Houston's soph QB has 13 starts.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 11

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Game of the Day: Houston at BYU
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Houston Cougars at BYU Cougars (-18.5, 58.5)

Houston doesn't have a lot of time to prepare for its trip to Brigham Young on Thursday, so coach Tony Levine is going to refer back to last year's hard-fought 47-46 loss to BYU. "It'll be a physical game," Levine said Saturday. "It certainly was last year and (BYU) is a physical program. They are always one of the top defenses in the nation. It is about us and how we feel we can play. We have got to do a great job with turnovers and turnover margin and we've got to fly around and tackle on defense and get those guys on the ground." Houston felt pretty good Saturday after a 47-0 beating of Grambling State, forcing six turnovers and scoring a defensive touchdown.

Houston will try to keep BYU's defense - which has been impressive in two lopsided victories - off-balance by using different personnel in the backfield. John O'Korn showed improvements between the first and second week and the club has used receivers Greg Ward Jr. and Daniel Spencer at quarterback in special packages. BYU quarterback Taysom Hill has accounted for 685 total yards, five rushing touchdowns and three scoring passes on the way to back-to-back FBS Independent Offensive Player of the Week honors.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened BYU -18 and most are now offering -18.5. The total opened 57 and is now up to 58.5.

INJURY REPORT: BYU - WR Nick Kurtz (Indefinitely, foot).

WEATHER FORECAST: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with clear skies and wind blowing to the south endzone at 9 mph.

ABOUT HOUSTON (1-1): O'Korn has completed 52.2 percent of his passes for 404 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions while Ward Jr. (five carries for 22 yards and a score) and Spencer (two carries for minus-1 yard) have mostly been used on running plays. Kenneth Farrow leads the ground game with 151 yards after a career-high 130 against Grambling State. Houston is allowing 342.5 yards and has forced a turnover in 25 straight games - the third-longest active streak in the country.

ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (2-0): BYU is allowing 8.5 points and just 76.5 yards rushing after road wins over Connecticut (35-10) and Texas (41-7). Hill has completed 73 percent of his passes and is averaging 5.4 yards per run while Jamaal Williams rushed for 89 yards against Texas. Linebacker Bronson Kaufusi, who had two sacks against UConn, left the Texas game with an ankle injury and his status is unknown.

TRENDS:

* BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games.
* Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Houston's last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-0 in BYU's last four Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 71 percent of wagers are backing BYU.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 11


Houston-BYU to be playing in high winds

The all-Cougars clash between Houston and BYU could be getting a little windy. At kickoff there is expected to be wind gusts upwards of 12 miles per hour, with it slowly decreasing through the game.

BYU is currently 17.5-home faves over Houston Thursday.


Bulldogs/Mean Green to see winds, thundershowers

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs certainly did not take good weather with them to Apogee Stadium. Leading into the clash between the Bulldogs and the North Texas Mean Green there is a 20 percent chance of thundershowers, but by the fourth quarter the chances raise to 60 percent.

Winds could cause a problem as well gusting between six and 11 miles per hour.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------7 - 5

Double Plays--------------------------5 - 8

Triple Plays---------------------------3 - 6

LIGHTS OUT.....................................2 - 1

Overall Rated Plays

17 - 13......................................*****

9 - 13.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

7 - 9 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

4 - 2 ....................................LIGHTS OUT


Thursday, September 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisiana Tech - 8:00 PM ET North Texas -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
North Texas - Over 48 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Houston - 9:00 PM ET Houston +17 500 *****
Brigham Young - Under 59.5 500 *****

[Udog]

Good luck tonight, Bum! I took your advice and flipped a coin on Houston/BYU! Came up with Houston.

[StarDust Bum]

Nice Flip..............see it works...........lolol

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------2 - 0

Double Plays--------------------------1 - 1

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

19 - 13......................................*****

10 - 14.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

7 - 9 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

4 - 2 ....................................LIGHTS OUT

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 11

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Games of the Day: College football Doubleheader
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Toledo Rockets at Cincinnati Bearcats (-9.5, 58)

Cincinnati finally get its season going Friday night when it hosts in-state foe Toledo in a non-conference game. While the rest of the nation has been playing for a week or two, the Bearcats have been forced to grind through extra practice, a task that has been difficult for the coaching staff. "We've had to be very imaginative the last few weeks trying to keep our guys focused on what they are doing, trying to get better," coach Tommy Tuberville told reporters Tuesday.

Tuberville - in his first season with Cincinnati last year - guided the Bearcats to a third-place finish in their inaugural American Athletic Conference campaign and a berth in the Belk Bowl. Toledo has already played a pair of games, first topping New Hampshire before a rough first half led to a 49-24 loss at home to No. 22 Missouri last Saturday in a game that saw quarterback Phillip Ely suffering a season-ending ACL tear. Cincinnati leads the series 4-3 but the Rockets have won the last three meetings, including a 29-23 triumph in 2012.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE HISTORY: Cincinnati opened as 11-point favorites, but have been bet down to -9.5. The total opened at 59.5 had has moved down a point to sit at 58.5.

INJURY REPORT: Toledo - QB Phillip Ely (out for season, knee), OL Nate Jeppesen (out indefinitely, leg). Cincinnati - QB Munchie Legaux (questionable Friday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is an eight percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low 70s at gametime. There will also be a six mil per hour wind blowing towards the southwest endzone.

ABOUT TOLEDO (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Ely will be replaced by Logan Woodside, who took over against Missouri following the injury and was 6-for-10 for 52 yards. Woodside, a sophomore, saw sporadic action last season, going 21-for-41 for 240 yards and a touchdown. His inexperience should allow the Bearcats to give their attention to running back Kareem Hunt, who ran for 148 yards and three touchdowns last weekend and is averaging 8.1 yards per carry through his first two games.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (2013: 9-4, 6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Bearcats are also breaking in an inexperienced, albeit highly touted, quarterback in sophomore transfer Gunner Kiel, who was the nation's top quarterback prospect coming out of high school before redshirting at Notre Dame. Tuberville said that while Kiel is the No. 1 guy and has impressed in preseason practice, others could see action against Toledo under center. One of those options is senior Munchie Legaux, who is coming back from a knee injury that ended his 2013 campaign after two games.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
* Bearcats are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games.
* Under is 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in the Bearcats last 5 home games.

CONSENSUS: Almost 60 percent of wagers are backing the Bearcats at -9.5.


Baylor Bears at Buffalo Bulls (+34.5, 69.5)

Quarterback Bryce Petty returns to the lineup when No. 7 Baylor and its high-flying offense travel to Buffalo on Friday. "He's healthy. He's in good shape,'' Bears coach Art Briles told reporters before Tuesday's practice about Petty, who missed last week's 70-6 victory over FCS member Northwestern State with a back injury. Briles, though, said it is unlikely that wide receivers Corey Coleman (hamstring) and Antwan Goodwin will play.

Baylor didn't seem to miss its Heisman Trophy-hopeful quarterback or its top four receivers last week as backup Seth Russell and a host of freshmen playmakers racked up 720 yards. The Baylor defense has been equally dominant, allowing a total of six points and 269 yards to Northwestern State and Southern Methodist. The Bulls scored in bunches - getting five second-half touchdown passes from Joe Licata - as a late rally fell short in a 47-39 loss to Army.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Baylor as huge 34-point favorites and it now sits at Bears -34.5. The total has been bet up two points after opening at 67.5 and now sits at 69.5.

INJURY REPORT: Baylor - QB Bryce Petty (probable Friday, spine), WR Antwan Goodley (doubtful Friday, leg), WR Corey Coleman (doubtful Friday, hamstring), RB Devin Chafin (out Friday, ankle). Buffalo - DB Marqus Baker (doubtful Friday, illness).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 50s and an eight percent chance of rain. There will also be a five mile per hour wind blowing the southwest corner of the south endzone.

ABOUT BAYLOR (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Freshman speedster KD Cannon is sixth nationally with 141 receiving yards per game and has four touchdowns after scoring on 50-, 81- and 42-yard plays last week. Freshman Davion Hall has 11 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown this season and freshman Johnny Jefferson is one of three Bears - joining Shock Linwood and Silas Nacita - with more than 120 rushing yards through two games. The Baylor defense, which has not allowed a touchdown, is ranked third nationally in scoring (three points allowed per game), first in rushing defense (27 yards per game), second in total defense (134.5 yards) and tied for first with six sacks per game.

ABOUT BUFFALO (1-1, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Licata is 60-of-86 for 699 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Ron Willoughby (187 receiving yards), Marcus McGill (168 receiving yards) and Devin Campbell (67 receiving, 78 rushing) each have two touchdown catches. The Bulls, who lost at Baylor 70-13 last year, are tied for 110th among the 124 FBS teams in points allowed (37.5) and 90th in yards allowed (419.5).

TRENDS:

* Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Over is 10-2 in the Bears in their last 12 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-0 in the Bulls last seven non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: Just over 72 percent of wagers are on Baylor at -34.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Six best bets in college football you didn't know about

There are 31 college football teams that are 2-0 ATS in the first two weeks, but just six of those programs have covered as an underdog in both games. Let's take a look at those underrated sides and grade their possible value on ATS heat meter:

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Bulldogs backdoored bettors by outscoring Oklahoma 13-7 in the fourth quarter after the game was long over in Week 1’s loss to the Sooners. They were big underdogs in Week 2 against Louisiana-Lafayette but won out right by 28 points.

Next Game: at North Texas (-3.5) Thursday

The Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games but just 6-13 in their last 19 games overall. North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games. The Mean Green got rocked by 31 points at Texas and then turned around and destroyed SMU by 37. Neither of these teams has shown any sort of consistency through two weeks.

ATS heat meter: Mild


Hawaii Warriors (0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS)

Hawaii has two close losses to Pac-12 opponents. The Warriors played Washington close throughout and scored the only points of the second half in Week 1. They rallied furiously in the fourth quarter and covered the spread with just 1:35 left in the game versus Oregon State in Week 2.

Next game: vs. Northern Iowa (-5) Saturday

Northern Iowa’s only game was a close loss to in-state rival Iowa. Travel will factor into the game as the Panthers have a 15-hour trip and the game also kicks off at 6 p.m. local time/midnight ET (which would be 11 p.m. in Iowa).

ATS heat meter: Hot


Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Roadrunners beat Houston outright and then hung with Arizona throughout their game and scored in the middle of the fourth quarter to cover the spread.

Next Game: at Oklahoma State (+15) Saturday

The Roadrunners are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall games, 9-1 in their last 10 non-conference games and 8-1 in their last nine road games. The last time they suffered a double-digit loss was to Marshall last season but that same UTSA team also lost to Arizona by 25.

ATS heat meter: Sriracha


UAB Blazers (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Blazers beat Troy big in week one and then hung around Mississippi State for the majority of their game. Alabama-Birmingham can put up points, ranked 31st in the nation (41 ppg), which always gives a team chances to covering.

Next game: vs. Alabama A&M (-36) Saturday

This is quite a large spread for a team like UAB but they did beat their only 2013 FCS opponent by 24 and appear to be quite a bit better this season under first-year head coach Bill Clark.

ATS heat meter: Jalapeno


New Mexico State Aggies/UTEP Miners (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS/1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

These two 2-0 ATS programs meet on Saturday. New Mexico State beat Cal-Poly with a solid performance in Week 1 and then scored with 15 seconds left to beat (and cover) against Georgia State the following game. UTEP jumped on New Mexico early and held on late and then they went wire-to-wire with Texas Tech.

Next game: UTEP -11 Saturday

UTEP has been the more dependable team so far and they also have playmakers in Aaron Jones and Jameill Showers.

ATS heat meter: Five-alarm

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet

September 10, 2014


**Toledo at Cincinnati**

-- As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Cincinnati (0-0 straight up, 0-0 against the spread) installed as an 11-point home favorite with a total of 59.5. Bettors can back the Rockets on the money line for a +330 return (risk $100 to win $330).

-- Tommy Tuberville's team went 9-4 both SU and ATS in his first season at the helm after replacing Butch Jones. The Bearcats won nine of their first 11 games, but they lost a 31-24 decision to Louisville as three-point home underdogs in overtime to close the regular season. Then at the Belk Bowl, Cincy got thumped 39-17 by North Carolina as a 2.5-point 'dog.

-- Cincy returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. QB Brendon Kay is gone and Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel has been named the starter for the opener. Kiel, who was an original oral commitment to LSU before changing his mind on Signing Day, was considered the nation's No. 1 prep signal caller in the 2012 class. Things didn't work out in South Bend and we'll see how it goes at Cincy. If Kiel is ineffective, Tuberville has another experienced option in Munchie Legaux, who has 13 career starts and offers a scrambling dynamic. Legaux suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2013 but has recovered and is ready to go Friday if needed.

-- Cincy posted a 3-2 spread record in five games as a home favorite last season. In six games as a double-digit 'chalk' whether at home or on the road, the Bearcats went 3-3 ATS.

-- Cincy returns its top three rushers and one of the AAC's top wide receivers in Shaq Washington, who had 999 all-purpose yards in 2013. Washington had 78 receptions for 783 yards. The Bearcats have one of the league's best pass rushers in junior DE Silverberry Mouhon, who was a second-team All-AAC selection after recording 9.5 sacks and seven QB hurries.

-- Toledo (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) won its opener by a 54-20 count over New Hampshire as an 11-point home favorite. QB Phillip Ely, a transfer from Alabama, completed 24-of-34 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Kareem Hunt rushed for 136 yards and two scores on 20 carries.

-- Missouri came to The Glass Bowl last week and the oddsmakers gave Toledo plenty of respect, listing it as just a 3.5-point home underdog. This was a bad line, however, and I jumped all over it. Missouri raced out to an early lead and coasted to a 49-24 victory and easy spread cover. The Rockets defense gave up 502 yards of total offense and allowed Maty Mauk to throw five TD passes. On the bright side, Hunt was productive once again, rushing for 148 yards and three TDs on just 15 carries.

-- The biggest downer coming out of the loss to Missouri was the season-ending injury to Ely, who tore his ACL. The starting job now goes to true sophomore Logan Woodside, who started one game as a freshman when he completed 21-of-41 passes for 240 yards and one TD without an interception. In the second half against the Tigers, Woodside connected on 6-of-10 throws for 52 yards. With Woodside at QB, look for a heavy dose of Hunt, who is averaging 8.1 yards per carry.

-- Toledo has thrived as a road underdog on Matt Campbell's watch, going 7-1 ATS. Whether at home or away or on a neutral field, the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in five games as double-digit 'dogs during Campbell's tenure.

-- The 'over' has hit in both of Toledo's games with scoring outputs of 74 and 73 combined points.

-- These schools squared off at The Glass Bowl two seasons ago, with Toledo capturing a 29-23 win as a six-point home underdog. The Rockets got the victory thanks to a long pick-six and a Bernard Reedy kickoff return for a TD.

-- Cincy's Nipper Stadium is undergoing expansion and renovation this year, so the Bearcats' home games will be played at the home of the Bengals, Paul Brown Stadium.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

**Baylor at Buffalo**

-- As of Wednesday morning, most spots had Baylor (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) installed as a 34-point favorite with a total of 67.5. -- After missing a chance to pad his stats in an easy Week 2 win, Baylor senior QB Bryce Petty has been upgraded to 'probable' and will start against the Bulls. In a 45-0 season-opening home win over SMU, Petty sustained a pair of cracked bones in his lower back. He only played in the first half, connecting on a pair of TD passes and running for another score.

-- Without Petty, Art Briles' squad cruised to a 70-6 home win over Northwestern State as a 47-point home favorite. Baylor raced out to a 49-3 advantage by halftime. Seth Russell was outstanding in Petty's place, throwing for 438 yards and five TDs without an interception. He also had a rushing score. True freshman WR K.D. Cannon, the prize of the program's 2014 recruiting haul, exploded with six receptions for 223 yards and three TDs. Johnny Jefferson rushed for a team-high 107 yards and one TD, while Silas Nacita had 104 rushing yards and a pair of TDs.

-- In the win over the Demons, Baylor played without Petty, WR Antwan Goodley, WR Levi Norwood, WR Corey Coleman and WR Clay Fuller. Along with Petty, Coleman has been upgraded to 'probable' for Friday night. However, Goodley (leg) remains 'doubtful,' while Norwood and Fuller are 'out.'

-- During Briles's seven-year tenure, Baylor is 3-6 ATS in nine games as a road favorite. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in its last seven such spots going back to 2011.

-- Buffalo (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) failed to cover the spread in a 38-28 Week 1 victory over Duquesne as a 28.5-point home favorite. Joe Licata completed 25-of-36 passes for 298 yards and three TDs, while Anthone Taylor ran for 115 yards and two TDs. Ron Willoughby had 10 receptions for 132 yards and two TDs.

-- Buffalo lost a 47-39 decision at Army as a three-point underdog last weekend. The Bulls trailed 28-3 midway through the third quarter, but Licata nearly brought them all the way back. The junior signal caller was intercepted three times, which obviously helped create the deficit. However, Licata ended up throwing for 401 yards and five TDs, pulling his team to within eight points with 2:42 remaining on a TD pass and another throw into the end zone to convert a two-point conversion. Marcus McGill had seven catches for 128 yards and two TDs.

-- Buffalo owns a 5-6 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Jeff Quinn's tenure.

-- When these teams met in Waco last year, Baylor rolled to a 70-13 win as a 27.5-point road 'chalk.' The Bears had 781 yards of total offense with Petty passing for 338 yards and a pair of TDs without an interception.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Bad Company - Week 3

September 11, 2014

Each week during the college football season, we’ll take a look at the worst of the worst teams on the gridiron and who to avoid placing your money on, even if the high number is enticing. Heading into the third week of the campaign, three of these squads come from the Mid-American Conference, starting with a club looking for its first victory since October of 2012.

Miami-Ohio (+31) at Michigan – 3:30 PM EST

The days of Ben Roethlisberger under center for Miami-Ohio are long gone as the Redhawks are currently riding an 18-game losing streak. In 2013, the Redhawks finished 0-12 straight-up and 3-9 against the spread, which included seven defeats by at least 25 points. Miami managed a cover in its season opener against Marshall as 24-point home underdogs in a 42-27 setback, but tripped on itself as a six-point home favorite against Eastern Kentucky in a 17-10 loss.

Now, Miami heads to the Big House to take on a Michigan squad that was humiliated at Notre Dame last Saturday. The Redhawks own a dreadful 2-10-1 ATS record the last two seasons as road underdogs, while Michigan has covered six of its past seven games as a double-digit home favorite.

Kent State (+32) at Ohio State – 12:00 PM EST

Another case of a MAC school going on the road to take on a Big Ten squad coming off an embarrassing loss. The Golden Flashes have compiled a 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS record since the 2012 season in which Kent State made it all the way to the MAC title game. The offense has been offensive so far for the Flashes, who have scored a total of 27 points in two losses to Ohio and South Alabama.

One positive to note with Kent State is the 2-1 ATS record last season as a double-digit road underdog, which including covers at LSU and Ball State. However, it seems like a nearly impossible task for Kent State headed to the Horseshoe on Saturday to come out with a win as the Buckeyes last lost to an in-state school in football back in 1921. Since 2009, OSU has put together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record against Ohio schools, as four of those victories came by at least 36 points.

Purdue (+27) vs. Notre Dame (in Indianapolis) – 7:30 PM EST

The Boilermakers owned one of the worst defenses in college football last season en route to a dreadful 1-11 season in which the lone win came against FCS Indiana State. Purdue allowed at least 31 points in eight games in 2013, while the Boilermakers kept that trend alive in the first two contests of 2014 by yielding 34 points to Western Michigan and 38 points to Central Michigan. Now, Purdue gets a major step-up in class against Notre Dame, who has scored 79 points in its first two wins over Rice and Michigan.

The good news for Purdue heading into this neutral-site matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium is the two covers against Notre Dame the last two seasons, a 20-17 defeat in South Bend as 14-point ‘dogs in 2012, followed by a 31-24 home setback in 2013 as 17-point ‘dogs. However, the Boilermakers put together a 3-6 ATS record last season as a double-digit underdog, which included six losses of at least 24 points.

Eastern Michigan (+18) at Old Dominion – 6:00 PM EST

Back to the MAC with the Eagles of Eastern Michigan, who were blown out at Florida last Saturday, 65-0 as 40 ½-point underdogs. How bad was it for EMU? The Eagles were outgained by the Gators, 655-125, while EMU racked up only seven first downs (compared to 27 by UF). Eastern Michigan has won only two games in three of the past four seasons, so its prospects of an improved campaign are highly unlikely in 2014. Now, the Eagles are playing the second of four straight road games, taking on an Old Dominion team who is participating in its first season at the FBS level.

Eastern Michigan is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as a road underdog, while ODU blew an 11-point lead in last week’s 46-34 setback at North Carolina State as a 15 ½-point ‘dog. EMU better strap up defensively after giving up a mind-blowing 42 points or more in nine of the past 12 games.

FIU (+26) vs. Pittsburgh – 12:00 PM EST

The only home underdog on this list is the Golden Panthers, taking on the Pitt Panthers in this obvious mismatch. FIU has split a pair of games against FCS schools Bethune-Cookman and Wagner, while allowing 17 points so far. There isn’t much to get excited about offensively with FIU, who scored 13 points or less 10 times in 2013. Since 2012, the Golden Panthers have lost 12 of their past 13 home games with the lone victory coming against Wagner last week.

Pittsburgh’s largest road win under Paul Chryst is a 24-point margin against USF back in 2012, as the Panthers split six games away from Heinz Field last season. Pitt is seeking back-to-back road wins for the first time since 2008.

Favorite fade:

Vanderbilt (-16) vs. Massachusetts – 12:00 PM EST

Vandy has put together two horrible efforts so far in losses to Temple and Ole Miss. The Commodores have been outscored by a massive margin (78-10), while allowing 547 yards to Ole Miss last week. UMass may not have a lot of talent, but the Minutemen hung around with Colorado as a 17-point home ‘dog in last Saturday’s 41-38 defeat. Last season, UMass compiled a 2-4 ATS record as a road underdog, while covering as 29-point ‘dogs in a 24-7 loss at Vanderbilt.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------2 - 0

Double Plays--------------------------1 - 1

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

19 - 13......................................*****

10 - 14.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

7 - 9 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

4 - 2 ....................................LIGHTS OUT


Friday, September 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toledo - 7:00 PM ET Cincinnati -9.5 500 *****

Cincinnati - Under 58 500 DOUBLE PLAY




Baylor - 8:00 PM ET Baylor -32 500 LIGHTS OUT

Buffalo - Under 69 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------1 - 0

Double Plays--------------------------0 - 1

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 1

LIGHTS OUT.....................................1 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

20 - 13......................................*****

10 - 15.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

7 - 10 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

5 - 2 ....................................LIGHTS OUT

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 3

September 12, 2014

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 1-1 0-1 1-1 0-1-1

Clemson 1-1 0-0 1-1 2-0

Duke 2-0 0-0 0-1-1 0-1

Florida State 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

Georgia Tech 2-0 0-0 1-1 2-0

Louisville 2-0 1-0 2-0 1-1

Miami (Fla.) 1-1 0-1 0-2 0-2

North Carolina 2-0 0-0 0-2 0-1

North Carolina State 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

Virginia 1-1 0-0 2-0 1-1

Virginia Tech 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-0

Wake Forest 1-1 0-0 0-2 0-2


East Carolina at Virginia Tech (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
After Virginia Tech's huge win on the road last week at Ohio State, will they come down to Earth and have a hangover game, or will they carry over the momentum and thrash the visiting Pirates? We'll find out a lot about the Hokies this weekend against a tough non-conference opponent. Over the past five years, Virginia Tech is 5-3 in games following a victory agaisnt an opponent in the AP Top 25. The Hokies are favored by 11 points in this one, and they have won each of the past four meetings in the series, allowing 10 or fewer points in three games during the span. For ECU, they're coming off a 33-23 loss at South Carolina, but they did cover for the second straight week. In fact, both teams are 2-0 ATS this season, so something's gotta give.

Louisville at Virginia (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Louisville has come to the ACC and ascended to the top of the standings. Now, they take their show on the road for the first time this season. Virginia played UVA very tough, and then stomped in-state rival Richmond last weekend. The Cavaliers haven't been very good against the spread in recent years, but they're 2-0 ATS this season. Since 1979, UVA has dropped each of their past six facing an ACC member for the first time in conference play. Louisville is a six-point favorite on the road, and they're 14-2 ATS in their past 16 conference games dating back to the Big East. They're also 19-7 ATS in the past 26 road contests. UVA is still 5-11-1 ATS in the past 17 conference games.

North Carolina State at South Florida (CBSSN, 3:30p.m. ET)
N.C. State has found a way to win its first two non-conference tilts, but their opponent covered in each game. Now, they hit the road for the first time in 2014. The road wasn't very kind to the Wolfpack last season, as they were 0-4 with a 153 points allowed (39.0 PPG). South Florida QB Mike White (forearm) suffered a compressive fracture to his non-throwing left forearm in last week's loss to Maryland, but he still might be able to play. N.C. State is 2-9-1 ATS in their past 12 road games, and 1-4 in the past five non-conference games, and they have failed to cover in seven straight. USF hasn't been much better, going 5-20-1 ATS in the past 26 home games, and 10-24-1 ATS in the past 35 overall.

Kansas at Duke (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m. ET)
This game opened with Duke as a nearly three-touchdown favorite, and has quickly gone down to Duke -14. The Blue Devils have rattled off eight straight victories at home against non-conference teams dating back to the 2011 season. They're coming off an impressive 34-17 win at Troy last week, but Duke is 0-1-1 ATS so far through two contests. Kansas made its season debut last weekend, but had an uninspiring 34-28 win against Southeast Missouri State. They'll look for better results in Durham.

Wake Forest at Utah State (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m.)
Wake picked itself up off the mat after getting dropped at Louisiana-Monroe in their opener. They took out their frustrations on Gardner-Webb, winning 23-7 last weekend. Wake has averaged just 16.5 points per game on offense, and allowed a total of 24 points. The 'under' has cashed in each of the first two games for the Deacons. Utah State was humbled in its opener on the road at Tennessee, losing 38-7, and they rebounded for a 40-20 win over Idaho State las week. Both of these teams are 0-2 ATS so far this season.

Southern California at Boston College (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
With Clemson and Florida State on byes, and the other games lacking quality, this is the de facto marquee game in the Atlantic Coast Conference this week. This one could get away from BC in a hurry if they play like they did last weekend against Pittsburgh, however. The Eagles were trampled 30-20 by the Panthers, and the score doesn't indicate how lopsided the game was. BC scored a late touchdown, and then had an onside kick and an opportunity to make it even close. They didn't, and now sit at 1-1 SU/ATS on the season. The under is also 0-1-1, as total bettors had to settle for a push after last weekend's late touchdown. USC has fired out of the game for two wins and covers, including an impressive 13-10 road win at Stanford. USC has allowed just 11.5 PPG on defense, and the Trojans D might be too challenging for QB Tyler Murphy and the young Eagles. USC enters as a 17-point favorite.

Other ACC teams in action

Pittsburgh at Florida International (FS1, 12:00 p.m.)

Syracuse at Central Michigan (ESPNews, 12:00 p.m.)

Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m.)

Arkansas State at Miami, Fla. (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 3

September 12, 2014

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1

Arizona State 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1

California 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Colorado 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1

Oregon 2-0 0-0 1-1 2-0

Oregon State 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

Southern California 2-0 1-0 2-0 1-1

Stanford 1-1 0-1 1-1 0-1

UCLA 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

Utah 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0

Washington 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

Washington State 0-2 0-0 0-2 1-1


Wyoming at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Oregon throttled Michigan State in a marquee battle last weekend, now they'll look to beat back an attack from Wyoming in a potential hangover game. The Cowboys are coming off a thrilling 17-13 win against Air Force, getting a touchdown with 58 seconds left to stay perfect at 2-0. However, Montana and USAFA have nothing on the Ducks, as far as offense is concerned. The Ducks are 51-18-1 all-time against Mountain West teams, but this is the first-ever meetings with Wyoming. The Cowboys have managed to score 17 points in each of their first two games, and it will obviously take quite a bit more against Heisman candidate Marcus Mariota and the Ducks. The 43-point spread is the highest-ever against a Wyoming opponent.

Illinois at Washington (FOX, 4:00p.m. ET)
Illinois heads to Seattle for its first road game of the season, and they look to keep the offense rolling. QB Wes Lunt and company piled up 42 points in a win against Western Kentucky last week, while the Huskies held off a challenge from Eastern Washington, winning 59-52. With a total of just 64.5 points, 'over' bettors might be on the lookout. Illinois has averaged 31.0 PPG on offense, and allowed 25.5 PPG on defense. Last season's game went to the Huskies, winning 34-24 in Champaign. Both teams look to be quite improved offensively.

Southern California at Boston College (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
This one could get away from BC in a hurry if they play like they did last weekend against Pittsburgh, however. The Eagles were trampled 30-20 by the Panthers, and the score doesn't indicate how lopsided the game was. BC scored a late touchdown, and then had an onside kick and an opportunity to make it even close. They didn't, and now sit at 1-1 SU/ATS on the season. The under is also 0-1-1, as total bettors had to settle for a push after last weekend's late touchdown. USC has fired out of the game for two wins and covers, including an impressive 13-10 road win at Stanford. USC has allowed just 11.5 PPG on defense, and the Trojans D might be too challenging for QB Tyler Murphy and the young Eagles. USC enters as a 17-point favorite.

UCLA vs Texas (FOX, 8:15 p.m.)
The Bruins hit the road for a neutral-field game against the Longhorns in Arlington, Texas. UCLA finds itself 2-0 on the season, with a road win at Virginia and a home win against Memphis, but neither showing has been particularly impressive. They're 0-2 ATS so far, but at least the offense got on track last week after a sluggish start in Charlottesville. Speaking of sluggish, the Longhorns were manhandled at home by Brigham Young last week, scoring just six points in a 41-6 rout. QB Terrell Swoopes will make a second straight start with QB David Ash (concussion) sidelined. UCLA is favored by just eight points, and given Texas' woes on offense, that might be kind of attractive to some.

Arizona State at Colorado (ESPNU, 10:00 p.m.)
The Sun Devils will take their powerful offense to Boulder for their first conference game of the season. AZ State picked up an impressive 58-23 road win at New Mexico, and the over hit after missing by nearly a touchdown in their opener against Weber State. Colorado has been porous on defense, allowing 34.5 PPG, and that's not good news facing an Arizona State offense which has totaled 103 points in its first two games. Colorado is 0-2 ATS in two games this season, and they are a 15-point underdog in Boulder Saturday night.

Nevada at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 11:00 p.m.)
Both teams are off to promising 2-0 starts, and had nice victories last weekend. Arizona took down Texas-San Antonio on the road last Thursday, while Nevada slowed Washington State's high-flying offense to a crawl in a 24-13 win. Now, can the Wolf Pack do it again against Arizona, which ranks third overall in total offense? Well, Nevada is 3-8 ATS in their past 11 road games. However, Arizona is also 3-8 ATS in their past 11 against a team with a winning record. Bettors might find interest in the total. The under has connected in eight straight for Nevada, and each of their past five against teams with a winning record. The under is also 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts. The under is 6-1 in Arizona's past seven home games, although the over hit in their home opener against UNLV two weeks ago.

Other Pac-12 teams in action

Army at Stanford (Pac-12 Network, 5:00 p.m.)

Portland State at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)