The Bum's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

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Friday's Tip Sheet

September 3, 2014


**Pittsburgh at Boston College**

-- As of early Wednesday, most books had Pittsburgh (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) installed as a four or 4.5-point road favorite for both school's ACC opener. The total was in the 49-50 range. Gamblers can take the Eagles on the money line for a +170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

-- Pitt cruised to a 62-0 win over Delaware as a 24-point home favorite in Saturday's opener. The Panthers, who won by the widest margin since 1913, produced 501 yards of total offense and limited the Fightin' Blue Hens to merely 57 total yards. They led 42-0 at intermission and coasted to the easy win. Sophomore RB James Conner was the catalyst with 153 rushing yards and four touchdowns on just 14 carries. Chad Voytik completed 10-of-13 passes for 84 yards and two TDs without an interception.

-- Pitt sophomore WR Tyler Boyd, a first-team Freshman All-American and a second-team All-ACC selection in 2013, suffered a finger injury in last week's opener. Boyd had two receptions for 18 yards and one TD against Delaware. He also had two carries for 17 yards and three punt returns for 72 yards before leaving the game early. Boyd has been upgraded to 'probable' this week after practicing Tuesday with some wrap on his hand. As a true freshman last season, Boyd had 85 receptions for 1,174 yards and seven TDs.

-- Boston College (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) captured a 30-7 win as a 17-point road favorite in last week's season opener at Massachusetts. Florida transfer Tyler Murphy was excellent in his BC debut, completing 17-of-24 throws for 173 yards with one TD and one interception. Murphy rushed 13 times for a team-high 118 yards and one TD, becoming the first BC quarterback to rush for more than 100 yards since Doug Flutie in 1984.

-- With RB Andre Williams taking his 2,177 rushing yards from 2013 to the NFL this year, the bulk of the carries will be split by Myles Willis and Tyler Rouse. Willis rushed for 57 yards and one TD on 16 carries, while Rouse finished with 19 totes for 87 yards.

-- Since 2004, BC owns a 10-6 spread record as a home underdog. The Eagles are 2-0 ATS as home 'dog on Steve Addazio's watch.

-- Pitt has been a road favorite five times during Paul Chryst's tenure, posting a 2-3 spread record.

-- These former Big East rivals haven't faced each other in a decade. They squared off every season from 1993 to 2004. Four of the last eight head-to-head meetings were decided by four points or fewer, with two of the last three contests going to overtime.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Washington State at Nevada**

-- As of Wednesday, most spots had Washington State (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 66. Bettors can take the Wolf Pack to win outright for a +155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).

-- Nevada (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) won a 28-19 decision over Southern Utah in its opener, but it failed to cover the number as a 24.5-point favorite. The Wolf Pack took a 28-6 advantage early in the fourth quarter and appeared as if it might hook up its supporters. However, the Thunderbirds answered with a TD drive and then got an 85-yard pick-six with 1:59 remaining to make the final score look more respectable.

-- Nevada senior QB Cody Fajardo was sharp against Southern Utah, connecting on 30-of-41 throws for 303 passing yards with one TD and one interception. Fajardo ran 15 times for 68 yards, including an 11-yard TD scamper. For his career, Fajardo has a 40/19 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 2,504 rushing yards.

-- Washington State is in a must-win situation here after dropping a 41-38 decision to Rutgers as a 7.5-point home favorite last Thursday (note that Nevada played Saturday, so Wazzu has had two extra days of preparation). After trailing 21-17 at intermission, the Cougars took a 31-24 lead going into the fourth quarter. They went ahead 38-34 with 8:13 remaining on a five-yard TD pass from Connor Halliday to Rickey Galvin. However, RU's Paul James scored on a three-yard TD run with 3:24 left and the Scarlet Knights held off Washington St.'s last-gasp effort to escape Pullman with the upset victory.

-- Halliday had a tremendous performance, completing 40-of-56 passes for 532 yards and five TDs compared to only one interception. But he got zero help from a ground attack that produced just six rushing yards on 14 attempts. Vince Mayle had a team-high 12 receptions for 124 yards and one TD, while Isiah Myer had six catches for 94 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Nevada was a home underdog twice in Brian Polian's first season as head coach in 2013, compiling a 2-0 spread record. The Wolf Pack beat San Jose St. outright as a seven-point 'dog and comfortably took the cash in a 28-23 loss to BYU as a 15.5-point puppy.

-- Nevada is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games (all on the road) against Pac-12 foes over the last three seasons. The last time the Wolf Pack faced a Pac-12 opponent at home in Reno was in 2010 when it blasted California by a 52-31 count as a 2.5-point underdog.

-- This is just the third time Wazzu has been a road 'chalk' on Mike Leach's watch. The Cougars are 1-1 ATS in the two previous situations.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

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Thursday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------o - 0

Double Plays--------------------------2 - 0

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

10 - 8......................................*****

6 - 3.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

4 - 3 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 1 ....................................LIGHTS OUT

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Mississippi faces familiar foe Vanderbilt

September 4, 2014


A look at things to watch in Week 2 of the Southeastern Conference football season:

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 15 Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt at LP Field in Nashville, Tennessee: It's slim pickings in the SEC this week, with several teams stepping outside of conference to face lower-level opponents. This matchup is one of the few exceptions. Though the Rebels will be favored at the NFL Titans' home field on Saturday, Vanderbilt has won five of the last seven in the series. Ole Miss struggled early before pulling away in a season-opening 35-13 win over Boise State. A convincing win over Vanderbilt would help justify the program's highest ranking since 2009.

BEST MATCHUP: East Carolina QB Shane Carden vs. South Carolina's defense. Carden is in his third season as the starter and has put up big numbers during his time with the Pirates. Now he gets to go against a South Carolina secondary that was torched by Texas A&M quarterback Kenny Hill last week.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Tennessee played 21 true freshmen Sunday in a season-opening 38-7 victory over Utah State. That represented a school record for a season opener and the highest total of true freshmen to play for any Football Bowl Subdivision program in the first week of the 2014 campaign. In total, 32 players from that game - 45 percent of the Vols who saw action - were making their Tennessee debuts.

LONG SHOT: Toledo opened its 2013 season by losing back-to-back road games against SEC teams - 24-6 to Florida and 38-23 to Missouri. Now the Rockets get to host an SEC school this week when Missouri comes to town. Missouri coach Gary Pinkel coached Toledo from 1991-2000. Pinkel isn't Toledo's only SEC connection. The Rockets are quarterbacked by Alabama transfer Phillip Ely, who threw for 337 yards and four touchdowns to lead Toledo to a 54-20 victory over New Hampshire in his first game with his new team. ''He has a lot of poise,'' Pinkel said. ''He knows what he's doing. He doesn't sit in the pocket too long and he gets rid of the ball. He's got a very experienced offensive line in front of him, and a lot of other players around him that can play.''

IMPACT PLAYER: Lightning prevented Florida from playing its scheduled season opener with Idaho on Saturday, so this week's game with Eastern Michigan represents QB Jeff Driskel's first game since he broke his right leg against Tennessee last September. Florida's chances of rebounding from a 4-8 season are largely dependent on Driskel's ability to make a successful comeback and thrive in new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper's scheme.

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Trojans, Cardinal on tap in Week 2

September 4, 2014


Things to watch in Week 2 of Pac-12 play, including the first conference game:

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 14 Southern California at No. 13 Stanford. There will be no easing into the conference season for the Trojans and Cardinal. The games between cross-division rivals are almost always tight and usually have national implications. Three of the past four games between USC and Stanford were either decided by last-second field goals or in triple overtime. The Trojans derailed the Cardinal's national-title hopes with a victory last season and Stanford took down USC when it was ranked No. 2 in 2012. The Cardinal are the two-time Pac-12 champions and USC appears to be back to its high-octane offensive form under new coach Steve Sarkisian. Should be a good one.

BEST MATCHUP: Oregon's offense against Michigan State's defense. The third-ranked Ducks have become the standard bearers for up-tempo offenses, running teams ragged while piling up yards and points. They'll face one of the nation's stingiest defenses against the seventh-ranked Spartans in a game that will be a head-to-head battle of strengths. One of the nation's best non-conference games, one that could have playoff implications, and it comes in the second week of the season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Pac-12 went 10-2 in the opening week, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 478-213. Six Pac-12 teams scored at least 45 points in their opener. ... The Pac-12 had three of the top 10 offensive performances of Week 1. Arizona led the nation with a school-record 787 total yards against UNLV, USC was fourth with 701 against Fresno State and Oregon was No. 7 with 673 against South Dakota. ... The conference had plenty of new faces in Week 1, with 75 freshmen seeing action. USC had the most with 11, followed by the 10 each who played for Oregon and Utah.

LONG SHOT: New Mexico against No. 17 Arizona State. The Lobos have one of the nation's best running games and a hard-to-defend triple option, but their defense is not on the same level as the offense. That doesn't bode well against an explosive offensive team like the Sun Devils, who are 25-point favorites.

IMPACT PLAYER: Connor Halliday, Washington State. The Cougars' quarterback got his season off to a rousing start, throwing for 532 yards - second-best nationally - and five TDs, though his team lost to Rutgers. This week's game against Nevada could be another offensive show.

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Big 12 league play begins in Week 2

September 4, 2014


Things to watch in Week 2 of Big 12 play, including the first conference game:

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 20 Kansas State at Iowa State in the season's first game that counts in the Big 12 standings. Iowa State opened with a 34-14 loss to North Dakota State, the FCS champion that also beat Kansas State in the 2013 season opener. Cyclones coach Paul Rhoads said having the conference opener after a disappointing loss is ''really good for our focus and concentration.'' K-State is playing its earliest league opener since being in the very first Big 12 game the opening week of the 1996 season. ''Normally, you would like for (conference games) to start later on. That would be my feeling,'' Wildcats coach Bill Snyder said. ''Ask me probably about 4 o'clock in the afternoon Saturday, and I'll probably have a better answer for you one way or another.'' The last time Iowa State played a Big 12 game so early was the second game in 2002, also its last win in a conference opener.

BEST MATCHUP: Dual-threat QBs Jake Waters and Sam Richardson. Iowa native Waters was 19-of-28 passing for 223 yards and two touchdowns, and ran 17 times for 55 yards and two more scores in K-State's opener. Richardson accounted for 209 of Iowa State's 253 total yards (20-of-31 passing for 151 yards, with 15 carries for 58 yards).

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Texas is home Saturday against BYU, whose school-record 550 yards rushing last year were the most ever given up by the Longhorns. The Cougars now have two freshmen listed as offensive line starters. The Texas OL has changed just since last week, with a season-ending injury to the center and both tackles being suspended. ... Texas Tech QB Davis Webb completed 39 of 52 passes for 452 yards with four TDs in a tougher-than-expected 42-35 win over Central Arkansas. Bradley Marquez had 11 catches for 184 yards with two fourth-quarter TDs (70 and 27 yards). While Webb has multiple TD passes in eight of his last nine games, Marquez had averaged three catches for 36 yards his previous 29 career games. On top of that, Red Raiders RB DeAndre Washington is the Big 12 rushing leader after his 104-yard opener.

LONG SHOT: Towson at West Virginia. While the Big 12 has first-week losses to FCS national champion North Dakota State two seasons in a row, 2013 FCS runner-up Towson lost eight returning offensive starters and was upset at home by Central Connecticut in its season opener. The Mountaineers play their home opener after a 33-23 loss to No. 2 Alabama in which they felt they missed several opportunities.

IMPACT PLAYER: Baylor defensive line. The defensive front accounted for seven of the Bears' school record-tying nine sacks in the season-opening 45-0 win over SMU, which was held to only 67 total yards on 64 plays.

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BYU romp still hangs over Texas

September 4, 2014


AUSTIN, Texas (AP) - It was the stuff of Texas nightmares: BYU quarterback Taysom Hill and the Cougars ripping the Longhorns for 550 yards rushing last season in a crushing and embarrassing loss.

It's also a nightmare the Longhorns have had to live over and over again. BYU's romp through the Texas defense featured heavily in the low-lights film new coach Charlie Strong and his staff subjected their new players to shortly after they got to campus.

The reminders won't stop until BYU (1-0) and Texas (1-0) play again Saturday night in Austin.

''We still hear about it. That's just how these (coaches) are,'' Texas senior cornerback Quandre Diggs said. ''They are going to continue to rub it in our face and that's what they want to do.''

Last season's loss was galling on several levels for Texas. Coach Mack Brown had been promoting his team as worthy of a return to national prominence after three sub-par seasons. Instead, a national television audience saw Texas get pushed around like a high school team.

Brown fumed on the flight back to Austin and fired defensive coordinator Manny Diaz the next day in a desperate attempt to save his season. But the fire under Brown had been lit and he was gone in December after 16 seasons.

And while the defense was embarrassed, the offense was beaten up in ways that are still affecting the Longhorns. Quarterback David Ash suffered his first concussion against BYU last season and has played only six quarters of football since.

Ash started Texas' win over North Texas last week, but experienced headaches and dizziness shortly after the game and on Monday was ruled out against BYU. Sophomore Tyrone Swoopes will get his first career start and it will come behind a patchwork offensive line with three starters out for injury (center Dominic Espinosa) or suspensions (tackles Desmond Harrison and Kennedy Estelle).

Texas officials have set no timetable for Ash's return, but his injury history suggests it could be a long time - if ever.

A year ago, Ash threw a pair of touchdowns but Texas didn't score again after he was hurt in the second half. The romp began when Hill sprinted 68 yards for BYU's first touchdown. Texas never came close to stopping BYU's option after that and Hill scored twice more on long runs.

''It was surreal. It was like I was able to see a childhood dream come true,'' Hill said. ''We just had so much fun.''

BYU finished with a school record for yards rushing. Texas set a record for most yards allowed.

Diggs called the defensive collapse ''probably the most embarrassed I've ever been.''

New Longhorns defensive coordinator Vance Bedford, who played at Texas, was at Louisville with Strong last season. He watched the game on television and was shocked by what he saw.

''I grew up in a wishbone era - Oklahoma, Alabama - and 300 yards rushing back in those days was something special,'' Bedford said.

The rematch will be a big test to see just how far Strong has taken his new team with his disciplinarian approach. The Longhorns returned most of their defensive starters from a year ago and held North Texas to just 94 total yards last week.

But Hill and the Cougars are something different altogether. Hill ran for 97 yards and two touchdowns and passed for three more TDs last week in a season-opening win at Connecticut.

Texas will be eager to avenge their embarrassment, Hill said, and the Cougars will be ready.

''I'm sure they've had an intense week of practice,'' he said. ''We're prepared to come and match their energy.''

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Thursday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------o - 0

Double Plays--------------------------2 - 0

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

10 - 8......................................*****

6 - 3.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

4 - 3 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 1 ....................................LIGHTS OUT

[StarDust Bum]

Six NCAAF teams that impressed the oddsmakers the most

You never get a second chance to make a first impression - and boy did these programs turn some heads in their Week 1 debuts. So much so, oddsmakers were forced to recognize those opening efforts and seriously adjust their odds to win the college football national championship.

Here are six of the most impressive squads from Week 1 and how they look going into their next meeting:

Georgia Bulldogs (18/1 to 10/1 to win national title)

After playing Clemson to a tie in the first half, Georgia made some halftime adjustments, the defense played lights out and the running game systematically took apart the Clemson defense.

Up next: -3 at South Carolina (Sept. 13)

This game is in Columbia and the Gamecocks have won the last two tilts at Williams-Brice Stadium. I expect Steve Spurrier to have his squad ready to go but keep an eye on the health of RB Mike Davis, as he could be the difference in this game.


Louisville Cardinals (300/1 to 100/1)

Louisville's debut in the ACC was very successful, beating Miami by 18 points (- 5.5). New quarterback Will Gardner played very well (20 for 28 for 206 with two TDs) as did RB Dominique Brown (33 carries for 143 yards and one TD).

Up next: -36.5 vs. Murray State

FCS Murray State is the next opponent on a short week for Louisville but keep an eye on the Week 3 game at Virginia. The Cavs played very well against UCLA and could be a tougher matchup than bettors thought before the season started.


LSU Tigers (20/1 to 15/1)

The Tigers didn't look particularly great against Wisconsin but they showed a lot of heart by coming back from a large deficit. Louisiana State is very young and should get better each week.

Up next: -34 vs. Sam Houston State

Another FCS matchup on the board and then the Tigers have a date with Louisiana-Monroe, who knocked off Wake Forest in Week 1. That one has the ability to be closer than anticipated.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish (100/1 to 60/1)

Everett Golson is back and looks like the type of player that could put the Irish on his back. He threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns while adding three rushing touchdowns versus Rice. With Golson, they are a completely different team.

Up next: -3.5 vs. Michigan

The line has actually moved down from at 5.5 the past week. The last time these two teams played in South Bend, the Irish won 13-6. A lot of action seems to be going the way of Michigan right now. But loyal Golden Domers will come in strong Saturday morning.


Texas A&M Aggies (100/1 to 20/1)

Johnny Who? Kenny Hill had a breakout game for Texas A&M and Kevin Sumlin, as the Aggies shocked South Carolina in Week 1.

Up next: -49 vs. Lamar

The Aggies schedule sets up very nicely for them as they play Rice and SMU after they dispatch of Lamar and then ease into the SEC West schedule with Arkansas. With the amount of talent the Aggies have on offense they will face some lofty spreads the next three weeks.


USC Trojans (30/1 to 20/1)

Despite the distractions prior to the game, the Trojans came out and ran roughshod over Fresno State.

Up next: +2.5 at Stanford

Since last week the line has moved in favor of USC. Bettors may want to pump the breaks on USC a little bit in this game. The Trojans haven't been Stanford on the road since 2008 and are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine clashes with the Cardinal.

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Upset alert: Five potential college football Week 2 shockers

College football Week 2 is packed with upset potential. We breakdown five matchups and ring the outright upset alarm, rankings just how probable these stunners could be Saturday.

Old Dominion Monarchs at North Carolina State Wolfpack (-17)

Moneyline odds: Old Dominion +875/NC State -850

North Carolina State struggled mightily against Georgia Southern in Week 1 but did rally in the fourth quarter for the win. With senior Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, the Monarchs can flat out score points and that's an area that the Wolfpack struggled in with new quarterback Jacoby Brissett.

Likelihood of upset: Small


Gardner-Webb Bulldogs at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-22)

Moneyline odds: Gardner-Webb +975/Wake Forest -1,975

The Demon Deacons gained just 94 yards in their season opener and scored 10 points against UL Monroe. Now they’re a 24.5-point favorite in Week 2. Gardner-Webb lost by 10 to Furman. Keep in mind that Wake's biggest victory from 2013 was 24 points (over Presbyterian and Maryland) and that they only scored more than 24 points four times in 2013. This feeling is less about confidence in Gardner-Webb and more about a lack of confidence in Wake's offense.

Likelihood of upset: Medium


Northern Illinois Huskies at Northwestern Wildcats (-7)

Moneyline odds: Northern Illinois +243/Northwestern -285

In Week 1, NIU won by 52 over Presbyterian while Northwestern lost to Cal by seven. Northern Illinois may not have Jordan Lynch anymore but it has a fantastic running attack and Northwestern will struggle to stop it. All of the offseason hoopla about Northwestern unionizing may have divided the team and interrupted its focus. We will likely find that out after this game.

Likelihood of upset: Large


Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos (-10.5)

Moneyline odds: Colorado State +330/Boise State -410

The Broncos fell flat against Ole Miss in Week 1. They hung in for three quarters and then got blown out in the fourth. Colorado State beat in-state rival Colorado behind an aggressive running game that featured former Alabama RB Dee Hart and Treyous Jarrells (both ran for over 100 yards).

Likelihood of upset: XL


Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Illinois Fighting Illini (-6)

Moneyline odds: Western Kentucky +195/Illinois -235

No Bobby Petrino, no problem for WKU in Week 1 as the Hilltoppers led the FBS in passing yards with 569 in a 59-31 rout of Bowling Green (the 2013 MAC Champions). Illinois struggled to get past Youngstown State, needing 21 points in the fourth quarter to win by 11. A lot of pressure is on new Illini quarterback Wes Lunt to put the team on his back.

Likelihood of upset: Jumbo

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NCAAF

Friday, September 5

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Game of the Day: Pittsburgh at Boston College
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Pittsburgh Panthers at Boston College Eagles (+4, 49)

Pittsburgh and Boston College used rushing performances that connected them to their glorious pasts en route to easy season-opening wins last weekend. The former Big East rivals try to do the same Friday when they face each other for the first time as ACC foes as BC hosts the Panthers. Florida transfer Tyler Murphy threw for 173 yards and rushed for 118 versus Massachusetts, becoming the first Eagles quarterback since Doug Flutie in 1984 to rush for more than 100 yards.

The Eagles generated 338 of their 511 total yards on the ground in a 30-7 triumph – their first game since the graduation of Heisman Trophy finalist Andre Williams, who became only the 16th player in NCAA history to rush for more than 2,000 yards last year. Pittsburgh’s own bruising back – 250-pound James Conner – ripped FCS Delaware for 153 yards and four touchdowns in one half during a 62-0 victory, part of 409-yard rushing effort that was the most for the school since the 1976 national championship season. The Eagles and Panthers, who met every year from 1993-2004, resume their rivalry after a 10-year break.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Boston College opened as 4.5-point home dogs and have been bet to +4. The total has held steady at 49.

INJURY REPORT: Pittsburgh - WR Tyler Boyd probable Friday (finger). Boston College - OL Harris Williams out Friday (ankle).

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (1-0, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U): In addition to posting their biggest margin of victory since 1913, the Panthers outgained the Blue Hens 501-57 en route to their first shutout in nine years. However, not all the news was positive for Pittsburgh as receiver Tyler Boyd, who set school freshman records for receptions and receiving yards last fall, left in the second quarter after dislocating a finger on his left hand on a punt return. Boyd’s probable status for Friday means more of the offensive load could fall on sophomore quarterback Chad Voytik, who went 10-for-13 for 84 yards and two TDs in his first career start.

ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (1-0, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): The Eagles were slightly less proficient on the ground (338 yards on 61 attempts) than the Panthers last week, but turned to Murphy as well as running backs Tyler Rouse (87 yards) and Myles Willis (57) to replace the production Williams usually accounted for last season. "We're not just one back anymore. All of us are coming and the quarterback's running, too,” Willis told the Boston Herald. Josh Bordner, who served as the backup quarterback over the last three seasons, fared well in his debut as a receiver, finishing with four catches for 81 yards and a touchdown.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-0 in the Eagles last five home games.

CONSENSUS: Almost 62 percent of wagers are backing Pittsburgh at -4.5, with almost 61 percent of total bets on the under 49.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder for Week 1 (all records are ATS):
-- Patriots are 18-8-2 as divisional road favorites.

-- Bengals covered once in last seven divisional road games.

-- Jets covered six of their last eight home games.

-- Chiefs are 2-10 in last dozen games as home favorite.

-- 49ers covered eight of last nine as road favorites.

-- Arizona is 11-2-1 in last 14 non-divisional games.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend......

13) There are three home underdogs in the NFL this weekend: Falcons-Dolphins-Cowboys. Which one has the best chance of winning? I’d say Atlanta, based on Siants’ struggles away from the Superdome in recent years.

12) Michigan State-Oregon is a statement game for conference supremacy, which is more important now, with the 4-team playoff looming for the first time. Spartans have had a very good defense recently; it gets a huge test this week in Eugene.

11) Buccaneers (4-12 last year) are 2-point favorites over Carolina (12-4 last year); was Lovie Smith that much of an upgrade over Greg Schiano, the last Tampa coach? (yes) Bucs' defense will force more turnovers under Lovie Smith.

10) Stanford-USC is Steve Sarkisian’s first Pac-12 game with the Trojans, as both teams step way up in class after dismantling inferior opponents last week. Cardinal has won five of last seven series games.

9) Since 1990, only 25% of NFL teams who lost their opener made it to the playoffs; keep that in mind while your favorite team plays Sunday.

8) Notre Dame-Michigan are playing for the last time in the foreseeable future, as Irish will be playing more ACC teams as payment for that league letting Notre Dame play basketball in the ACC, thereby siphoning off some of their NCAA tournament money. One thing about Notre Dame, they make a lot of money.

7) Giants were 5-0 this preseason, but no one thought they played well- their subs pulled some games out at the end and they won ‘em all this summer. Now comes the opener in Detroit; Lions have better talent, but Coughlin vs Caldwell is an epic coaching mismatch.

6) BYU ran the football for 550 yards in a 41-20 dismantling of Texas last year. 550 yards. You think the Texas conditioning coach mentioned that once or twice during conditioning drills this winter? 5) Oakland’s Derek Carr is the only rookie QB starting this week, while Jets start 2nd-year QB Geno Smith. Big difference between playing for Fresno State and starting in the NFL, but Carr beat out Matt Schaub—we’ll see how he does.

4) Texas A&M’s offense treated South Carolina like a piñata last week, scoring 52 points in Columbia; how do the Gamecocks bounce back as a double digit favorite over an East Carolina squad with experienced QB Shane Carden running the show? Pirates have historically played their BCS opponents pretty tough.

3) How much will Peyton Manning miss Wes Welker and which Bronco will step up and make the plays Welker would’ve?

2) Oakland A’s need to right their ship this weekend against Houston; 23 games left, they need to play pretty good ball to make the playoffs. A’s were terrific for four months, then dreadful in August; September needs to be a better month.

1) How will Shaun Hill do against Minnesota, in his first NFL start since 2010? He has a 13-13 record as an NFL starter. Will the Rams be improved? How will Matt Cassel do in Norv Turner’s offense?

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Pac-12 Report - Week 2

September 5, 2014


The Pac-12 kicked off the Week 2 schedule a little early, with Arizona narrowly escaping an upset at Texas-San Antonio by a 26-23 score. It was an interesting finish, too, in case you missed it. First off, the game started off with an 85-yard touchdown pass from Arizona just 18 seconds into the game, making 'under' bettors really unhappy. But defenses did take over, and it came down to the very end. On the final play in regulation, with Arizona (-7) up 26-23 and the total at 56, an UTSA receiver tried to lateral the ball to a teammate. An Arizona player scooped it up and scored with no time left on the clock. It appeared the Wildcats might have covered, and made the total push for many, but a flag for an illegal forward pass ended the game on the spot. If the rest of the games are nailbiters for bettors, it is going to be an interesting week.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1

Arizona State 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

California 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1

Colorado 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1

Oregon 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0

Oregon State 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

Southern California 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Stanford 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-0

UCLA 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

Utah 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Washington 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

Washington State 0-1 0-0 0-1 1-0


Washington State at Nevada (Friday - ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
The Cougars hit the road for the first time this season, and you know head coach Mike Leach was working them hard after last weekend's setback in Seattle against Rutgers. The over has cashed in eight of WaZu's past 11 non-conference games, and is 20-6-1 in their past 27 appearances on field turf. In addition, the over is 5-0 in their past five against Mountain West Conference foes. For Nevada, it's rather surprising that the under has hit in seven straight games dating back, obviously, to last season. And the under is 10-1 in their past 11 field turf games. Still, the over is 6-1 in their past seven against Pac-12 opponents, and 4-1 in their past five appearances on Friday.

Fresno State at Utah (Pac-12 Network, 3:00p.m. ET)
Fresno State was absolutely fileted last week at USC, falling 52-13 while giving up 701 yards in the process. QBs Brian Burrell, and former Duke QB Brandon Connette, split reps and are expected to do the same Saturday. It was shocking how much different this team looked than with Derek Carr under center. Utah looked solid with Travis Wilson back under center, and they pounded Idaho State 56-14 in their initial outing of the season. To make matters worse for Fresno, PK Colin McGuire left the team due to personal reasons, leaving the kicking chores to walk-on Kody Kroening. And, CB Justin Thomas returns for Utah after missing the opener due to an unspecified reason.

Southern California at Stanford (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Despite some turmoil leading up to the season opener, USC put it behind them and spanked Fresno State 52-13, looking like a focused and talented club. However, hitting the road and playing a quality opponent might be a totally different thing in Week 2. USC is just 2-11 ATS in its past 13 road games, and 0-8 ATS in the past eight road games against a team with a winning home mark. Stanford creamed UC-Davis, posting a shutout. They will obviously be challenged more against an FBS offense. The Cardinal is 4-1 ATS in the past five at home, and 36-17-1 ATS in their past 54 overall. While the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series, USC is just 2-5 ATS during the same span. And if you were thinking about the total, the 'over' is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Palo Alto, and 13-5 in the past 18 in the series overall.

Michigan State at Oregon (FOX, 6:30 p.m.)
In the second marquee matchup in the conference, Oregon hosts a good Michigan State team. Sparty is actually 3-0-1 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts, and 10-1 ATS in their past 11 on field turf. Michigan State is also an impressive 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 road games, and 19-7-1 ATS in their past 27 against a team with a winning record. On the flip side, Oregon is just 1-4 ATS in the past five home games, but 12-5 ATS in the past 17 against a team with a winning record, and 5-1 ATS in the past six against a non-conference opponent. The total might actually be the play here, as the under is 6-2 in the past eight road games for MSU, and 7-3-1 in their past 11 non-conference tilts. The under is 4-1 in Oregon's past five against a team with a winning record, but most other trends point to the over.

Arizona State at New Mexico (CBS Sports Network, 7:00 p.m.)
Arizona State paddled Weber State 45-14 in their opener, and with QB Taylor Kelly, RB D.J. Foster and WR Jaelen Strong each looking very good. The Sun Devils haven't fallen to the Lobos since 1942, and as a 24-1/2 point favorite, it looks like the streak will continue. New Mexico is expected to be without its starting QB Cole Gautsche due to a hamstring injury, and it's hard to imagine how UNM will topple AZ State after they couldn't even slay UTEP at home last weekend, falling 31-24. While the spread is pretty high here, it might be prudent to lay the points on the road given the circumstances.

Memphis at UCLA (Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m.)
Memphis will be making its third-ever trip to the state of California. In the previous two forays, they won. The Tigers pounded Austin Peay by a 63-0 count last weekend in Tennessee, while UCLA was fumbling its way to an uninspiring 28-20 win at Virginia. QB Brett Hundley returned to finish what he started, but he was nothing short of awful last weekend in Charlottesville, getting a potential Heisman campaign off to a shaky start. The running game was even worse, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. UCLA is heavily favored here, and they could look mighty different at home, rather than a 9am PT kick.

Oregon State at Hawaii (CBS Sports Network, 10:30 p.m.)
Hawaii played Washington down to the wire, falling just one point short in a 17-16 game. It was unimpressive for Washington, but very solid for Hawaii. Now, another Pac-12 team strolls into the islands for a battle. Hawaii is just 5-9 in 14 games against Pac-12 teams since the 2005 season, and that includes a 33-14 loss to Oregon State last season. If the Beavers are to extend its winning streak to four over the Warriors, they'll need to be much more crisp than they were last week against Portland State. OSU actually trailed at halftime, and eventually scratched out an unimpressive 29-14 win. Given the results of last week, and some question marks on offensive for both sides, the total of 59 looks to be a bit high.

Other Pac-12 teams in action
Colorado at Massachusetts (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m.)
Sacramento State at California (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m.)
Eastern Washington at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 3:05 p.m.)

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ACC Report - Week 2

September 5, 2014

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1

Clemson 0-1 0-0 0-1 1-0

Duke 1-0 0-0 0-0-1 0-0

Florida State 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0

Georgia Tech 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0

Louisville 1-0 1-0 1-0 0-1

Miami (Fla.) 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-1

North Carolina 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-0

North Carolina State 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

Virginia 0-1 0-0 1-0 0-1

Virginia Tech 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-0

Wake Forest 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1


Pittsburgh at Boston College (Friday - ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
One thing is for certain - Joey Public loves the Panthers in this game. At a nearly two-to-one margin, the public appears to be on Pittsburgh laying the points. The Panthers throttled Delaware last week, but there is a small concern. WR Tyler Boyd (finger) dislocated a finger and left in the first half. It appears he is expected to play, but if he is limited, that would be a major playmaker down for Pitt. BC has a stable of running backs to compete, but obviously they'll need to keep it close or have the lead to have those backs be very useful. They rolled up 338 rushing yards against Massachusetts last week in a 30-7 win and cover.

Georgia Tech at Tulane (ESPNews, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Georgia Tech stumbled out of the chute early against Wofford last weekend, but eventually got it together and doubled up the Terriers 38-19, using a balanced offensive attack. It's something we haven't seen in recent years in Atlanta, as the Ramblin' Wreck has been almost exclusively all about the run. QB Justin Thomas made his first career starts, and tossed a pair of touchdowns. Tulane never trailed in regulation at Tulsa, and they did not trail in the first overtime, either. A late missed field goal from just 21 yards away with 1:46 left in regulation was a bitter pill to swallow for bettors getting 6-1/2 points. This is the first meeting in this series since 1982.

Old Dominion at N.C. State (ESPN3, 6:00p.m. ET)
Old Dominion wasn't that impressive in their opening game 41-28 win over Tidewater rival Hampton last week. Speaking of not that impressive, I attended the Georgia Southern-NC State game with my two boys, and saw first hand that the Wolfpack has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball. They scratched out a 24-23 lead, and actually never held the lead until 1:37 remaining in the game. Old Dominion is more than a two-touchdown underdog in this one, and with QB Taylor Heinicke, RB Gerard Johnson and WR Zach Pascal in a high-octane offense, it will be interesting to see if the Monarchs can do what Georgia Southern was unable to do - finish off an upset bid at Carter-Finley Stadium. The way NC State played in Week 1, they have no business being favored by 16 points against anyone.

Duke at Troy (ESPN3, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The hand wringers were out in full force when LB Kelby Brown (knee) went down with a season-ending injury. How will Duke recovery? Well, granted, they only played FCS foe Elon in the first game, but they thumped them 52-13. The defensive replacements looked good, and QB Anthony Boone was efficient, as was WR Jamison Crowder. Troy was smoked 48-10 by UAB last weekend on the road, and they return home for their home opener. They are 22-1 in home openers under head coach Larry Blakeney, but find themselves a decisive 19-point dog at home. If anything, this one should be a high-scoring affair. Last season Duke nipped Troy 38-31 at Wallace Wade Stadium in September. Defense doesn't exactly rule the day for either side.

San Diego State at North Carolina (ESPNews, 8:00 p.m.)
It took a while for North Carolina to shake free of FCS foe Liberty last weekend, and they actually trailed 22-21 at one point. The Tar Heels racked up 208 yards on the ground and 235 yards through the air while posting 56 total points. Liberty was able to move the ball on UNC, and that has to be a concern for head coach Larry Fedora. The Aztecs of San Diego State posted 38 points with 194 rushing yards and 205 passing yards in a 38-7 win over Northern Arizona, so they can move the ball with aplomb. If UNC hasn't shored up its defense from last week, this won could be a high-scoring game.

Virginia Tech at Ohio State (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Last week we had a pair of marquee games in the ACC. This weekend there is really just one standout game, and this is it. Virginia Tech was sluggish in a 34-9 win against William & Mary last week, but RB Shai McKenzie shined with 109 rushing yards and a pair of scores to earn ACC rookie of the week honors. Ohio State took Navy's best punch, picked themselves up and then pulled away from the Middies in the second half. Not only did the Buckeyes win 34-17, but they covered when it appeared there was no way that was happening in the first half. Ohio State has won 25 straight regular season games, and they haven't lost a home opener since 1978. Interestingly, this is Virginia Tech's first-ever game against a Big Ten team in a regular season matchup.

Other ACC teams in action
South Carolina State at Clemson (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m.)
Richmond at Virginia (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
Gardner-Webb at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 6:30 p.m.)
Florida A&M at Miami, Fla. (ESPN3, 7:00 p.m.)
Murray State at Louisville (ESPN3, 7:00 p.m.)
The Citadel at Florida State (ACC Network, 7:30 p.m.)

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Big Ten Report - Week 2

September 3, 2014


GAME OF THE WEEK

Michigan State (+12) @ Oregon - 6:30 PM EST
There was a moment when the Spartans' season flashed before their eyes as QB Connor Cook took a scary hit to the knee in the 1st half against FCS Jacksonville State. Luckily, Cook returned unscathed and finished 12-of-13 passing for 285 yards and 3 TD in the 45-7 drubbing over the Gamecocks. MSU coasted to a victory behind Cook, 211 rush yards, and a dominating defensive performance. The degree of difficulty goes up dramatically this week at Oregon, the fourth-ranked team in the nation and one of the toughest venues to play in. Oregon had an easy victory in week one over FCS South Dakota. Heisman candidate QB Marcus Mariota led the way with 267 pass yards, 43 rush yards, and four total TD's in the 62-13 win. The Ducks rushed for 293 yards on 7.7 YPC en route to a +303 yard advantage over the outmatched Coyotes. It will be a true matchup of strength vs. strength on Saturday as Oregon's fast-paced offense takes on an MSU defense that has ranked at or near the top of the nation over the past few seasons. Oregon depends on its rushing attack averaged 274 YPG on 6.3 YPC last year, while MSU allowed just 86 rush YPG on 2.8 YPC. MSU's defense hasn't allowed an opponent to reach exceed 28 points since 2011. If they can hold Oregon to 30 points or less, they have a great shot at covering considering that Oregon is just 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS when scoring fewer than 30 points since the beginning of the 2009 season. The Ducks are just 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 at home as a favorite of 10 points or more. They are also 0-7 ATS their last seven as a home favorite between 10 and 20 points. Michigan State is 3-1 since 2006 as an underdog of 10 points or more. They are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 regular season road games against non-Big Ten teams.

BEST OF THE REST

Ohio State (-11) vs. Virginia Tech - 8:00 PM EST
The J.T. Barrett era in Buckeye land didn't exactly get off to a flying start against Navy last week. OSU was losing 14-13 midway through the third quarter before a 80-yard touchdown pass from Barrett to WR Devin Smith gave OSU the lead for good. Navy is no pushover, and we give Barrett and co. credit for getting through a rough start and coming alive down the stretch, giving the Buckeyes a comfortable 17-point win. Navy's vaunted triple-option rushing attack gave OSU's defense some trouble, tallying 370 rush yards on 5.9 YPC, giving up a number of big plays. The Bucks buckled down in the second half, forcing and returning a fumble for a TD in the third quarter and allowing just 36 rush yards in the 4th quarter. OSU now takes a step up in competition as they host the Hokies of Virginia Tech this Saturday. VA Tech had a ho-hum 34-9 victory over FCS William & Mary last week. The Hokies had +295 yards, +12 first downs, and didn't allow the Tribe to reach the end zone. New QB Michael Brewer completed 23-of-30 passes for 251 yards and freshman RB Shai McKenzie had 109 rush yards on just nine attempts. A stout defense has always been a staple in Blacksburg under head coach Frank Beamer and this year should be no different, presenting the first difficult task for OSU's QB Barrett. The redshirt freshman will have to shake off the jitters as this game will be in prime time broadcasted by ESPN. The good news is that OSU is playing at the Horseshoe, where the Bucks are 15-0 under Urban Meyer. They are also 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 home games against non-conference foes. VA Tech has been a double-digit underdog just six times since 2000 and is 4-2 ATS in those situations. The Hokies are just 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 road games against non-conference opponents. This is the first ever meeting between these two schools.

Michigan (+3.5) at Notre Dame - 7:30 PM EST
The Wolverines were clearly ready for their "rematch" with Appalachian State after the famous loss to the FCS program in 2007. Michigan jumped to a 35-0 halftime lead behind three TD passes to WR Devin Funchess. QB Gardner finished 13-of-14 for 173 yards and 3 TD while RB's Green and Smith combined for 285 rush yards on 22 carries and three touchdowns. Sure, it was against an FCS opponent, but it was a promising start for a team that has struggled with offensive consistency over the past few seasons. This week they travel to South Bend for a meeting with rival Notre Dame. The Irish got QB Everett Golson back from his 2013 suspension and his presence cannot be understated. Golson led the Irish to the 2012 BCS championship and is 11-1 overall as a starter. He showed his worth last week with 295 pass yards, 41 rush yards, and 5 total TD in the 48-17 win over Rice. Notre Dame will be without three preseason starters for this matchup after dismissals to DT Ishaq Williams, WR DaVaris Daniels, and CB KeiVarae Russell, among others, for an academic scandal. Michigan will get starting center Graham Glasglow back this week after he served his suspension sitting out against Appalachian State. Motivation will not be lacking for either side here as this is the final scheduled meeting between the two rivals (have met every year since 2002 and 28 times since 1980). Michigan is 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight meetings with the Golden Domers, but both of the losses were in South Bend. The Wolverines are just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS the last two years against ranked opponents - the one SU win was at home against Notre Dame last year. The underdog has won seven of the last 10 meetings outright.

Penn State (-14) vs. Akron - 12:00 PM EST
The James Franklin era got started off with a bang as PSU survived Central Florida in Ireland last week. In a game that went back-and-forth, UCF took a lead with 1:13 remaining on a TD run by QB Justin Holman. PSU QB Hackenberg took the Nittany Lions down the field and put them in position for a 36-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. It would've been a devastating loss for PSU considering they dominated the stat book. PSU had a +265 yard advantage and +13 first downs. UCF's stout defense was able to hold PSU to just 57 yards on 2.0 YPC. Hackenberg was able to lead the way for PSU as he completed 32-of-47 passes for 454 yards. The defense also had a great day, holding UCF to just 24 rush yards on 29 carries (0.8 YPC). PSU had a difficult travel schedule as they return from Ireland (10+ hour flight) to prepare for the Zips of Akron. Akron finished just 5-7 last year, but returned nearly every key position player and have been tabbed as a contender for the MAC title this season. They got off to a promising start last week in a 41-0 win over FCS Howard. Talented Jr. QB Pohl tossed for 304 yards and 4 scores and the defense held Howard to just 216 total yards and 3-of-18 on 3rd down. James Franklin will have to fight off jet-lag and avoid a letdown performance here because this version of Akron has enough talent to pull off an upset. The Zips are 0-4 all-time against PSU, including a 31-7 loss the last time here (2009). They've dropped 20 straight road openers by an average of 28 PPG and they are 0-17 since 1998 against Big Ten squads. PSU is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 home games as a double-digit favorite against non-conference opponents.

Iowa (-17) vs. Ball State - 3:30 PM EST
The Hawkeyes knew they were going to get a fight against Northern Iowa; but for a team that has aspirations of a Big Ten West title, getting outgained by an FCS program and barely holding them off is a bit concerning. Still, a win's a win and Iowa did a lot of things right. QB Rudocks was 31-of-41 for 250 yards with 2 scores and 0 INT, the stable of RB's pounded for 151 yards on 4.2 YPC, and the defense held the Panthers to just 25 rush yards and 13 total first downs. The renovated defense will have to work on limiting the big plays after UNI QB Kollmorgen (380 pass yards) hooked up with WR Johnson (205 rec. yards) for a couple of big gains. Next up is a battle with MAC member Ball State. BSU finished 10-3 last year but lost top QB Wenning (35 TD, 7 INT in 2013) and WR Snead (106 rec, 15 TD) so the offense that averaged 38.5 PPG in 2013 is expected to take a bit of a step back. The Cards looked good last week, albeit against FCS Colgate, so take it with a grain of salt. BSU tallied 514 yards and 29 first downs in the 30-10 win. RB's Banks and Edwards combined for 243 rush yards on 35 carries, helping ease along QB Ozzie Mann who made his first career start. Iowa and BSU have met twice previously. The Cardinals have dropped both prior meetings (2005 & 2010) by a combined score of 101-0. Ball State is 2-16 SU in its last 18 road openers including 5 straight by an average of 16 PPG. They are 7-3 ATS since 2006 against Big Ten schools, including three SU wins (all against Indiana). Iowa is just 7-20 ATS since 2006 as a favorite of 14 points or more. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 SU but 0-4 ATS the last four games preceding their annual rivalry matchup with Iowa State.

Maryland (-12.5) at South Florida - 3:30 PM EST
There isn't too much to be learned about Maryland from a 52-7 blowout of James Madison last week, though Maryland will surely be looking for more efficiency from its passing attack after C.J. Brown completed just 11 of 24 attempts. He offset his poor passing performance with three rushing scores as the Terps gashed the Dukes for 285 rushing yards. WR's Stefon Diggs and Deon Long returned to the field for the first times since each suffered a season ending injury early in 2013. They combined for seven receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown (Diggs also returned a kickoff for 59 yards). Defensively the Terps forced three turnovers and held JMU to just 4-for-19 on 3rd down. Next up they travel to Tampa for their first road game of the year at South Florida. USF just just 5-19 over the past two seasons, but there was reason for optimism considering the Bulls return 10 starters on offense. The Bulls didn't exactly look much improved in their debut against FCS Western Carolina last week. Western Carolina jumped out to a 14-3 lead before USF woke up (won 36-31). Western Carolina had +14 first downs and tallied 454 yards against USF, holding the TOP advantage by +15 minutes. USF QB White completed just 9-of-26 passes for 181 yards and an INT. Freshman RB Marlon Mack burst onto the scene with 275 rush yards (11.4 YPC) and 4 TD. Maryland is just 2-4 SU & ATS in the last six non-conference road games. The Terps are just 4-8 ATS in the last 12 as a double-digit road favorite (first time since 2008). The Bulls are 12-6 ATS in the last 18 as a double-digit underdog, including 4-2 ATS in 2013.

Minnesota (-16) vs. Middle Tennessee State - 3:30 PM EST
The Gophers took their time getting started offensively against FCS Eastern Illinois last week, scoring just before halftime to take a 14-0 lead against the Panthers. They ended up winning 42-20, but the Gophers were outgained by 71 yards and had 9 fewer first downs. Many still question the passing ability of QB Leidner after a 9-of-17, 144 yard performance against EIU. Leidner did rush for two scores, but it doesn't appear that he'll put much fear into opposing secondaries this season. Leidner's shortcomings in the passing game allow opposing defenses to load the box against Minnesota's rushing attack - the strength of this team. As a result, the Gophers had just 182 rush yards on 40 carries (4.5 YPC) - that includes a 42-yard TD scamper by RB Edwards. Eastern Illinois exposed some flaws, and Middle Tennessee State will try to take advantage this weekend. MTSU put up 61 points in the victory over FCS Savannah State last week, scoring six rush TD, one pass TD, one defensive TD, and one special teams TD. We're not putting too much stock in that performance considering Savannah State is one of the worst FCS programs. Still, it was a promising start for Blue Raiders QB Grammer, who completed 15-of-17 passes for 250 yards and 1 TD in his starting debut. MTSU has some familiarity with the Big Ten, losing to Minnesota by just seven points in 2010, and Purdue by just 3 points in 2011. Eleven of MTSU's last 15 road openers have come against Big Five conference schools. The Raiders are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in those 11 games. The Gophers are 13-7 ATS in the last 20 games as a favorite of 14 points or more - though they're on an 0-4 run at home in that situation.

Northwestern (-7) vs. Northern Illinois - 3:30 PM EST
After a disastrous end to last season and some tumultuous news from training camp this offseason, the nightmare continued for Northwestern in a seven-point loss to Cal to kick off the 2014 season. A loss to a team coming off a 1-11 campaign isn't a step in the right direction for the Wildcats and now there's a hint of desperation in the Evanston air. Northwestern QB Siemian was an inefficient 23-of-44 for 229 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT and the rushing attacked mustered just 108 yards on 36 carries (3.0 YPC). The defense did all it could to hold a potent Cal offense, but the Bears still gained 414 yards and achieved 23 first downs. Northern Illinois has gone an impressive 46-10 over the last four seasons, winning two bowl games and even earning an invite to the 2012 Orange Bowl. Star QB Lynch is gone, but the Huskies still return 14 starters, including nine on offense. They got off to a strong start with a 55-3 win over Presbyterian. NIU outgained the FCS foe by a staggering 508 yards and had +30 more first downs. The Huskies have one of the better rushing attacks in the nation and Northwestern will have its hands full this weekend. The Wildcats are on a 0-5 SU run at home and 0-7 ATS run at home. They are on an extended run of 17-34 ATS as a home favorite. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog. NIU has won four of the last seven against the Big Ten and they are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 against the B1G.

Illinois (-6) vs. Western Kentucky - 12:00 PM EST
Illinois definitely made it interesting against FCS Youngstown State last Saturday. The Illini looked absolutely abysmal for the first three-and-a-half quarters before a TD with 8:50 remaining gave them the advantage for good. The Illini were outgained, had fewer first downs, and had 20 fewer minutes TOP. The good news for Illinois is that new starting QB Wes Lunt looked very good in his debut. Lunt completed 24-of-38 passes for 285 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT. The bad news is that Illinois gained just 78 rush yards on 3.5 YPC and the defense allowed 203 rush yards. There's still a lot of work to do before Illinois is even considered as a contender in the Big Ten West. If they play like they did last week against Western Kentucky this week, they'll be ripe for an upset. WKU looked very good in its debut against Bowling Green last week. BGU was tabbed to be one of the better teams in the MAC this season and the Hilltoppers absolutely destroyed them. WKU jumped out to a 38-10 lead and coasted to a 59-31 victory. The 'Toppers gained 708 total yards and 40 first downs. QB Doughty was extremely efficient, completing 46-of-56 passes for 569 yards with six TD's and 0 INT. WKU allowed 466 yards on defense, but if they can replicate that offensive performance like the one against Bowling Green, the Illini will have problems keeping pace. Illinois is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite. Western Kentucky is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.

Purdue (-3) vs. Central Michigan - 12:00 PM EST
The Boilermakers quickly matched their win total from 2013 with a win over Western Michigan last week. The 43 points scored exceeded any Purdue total from 2013 - it also represented 24% of 2013's point total. QB Etling tossed for 181 yards on 50% completions with 2 TD and 0 INT. RB's Mostert and Hunt combined for 224 yards on 37 carries and 2 TD. There are some causes for concern starting with the defense. The Boilers allowed 456 yards and 24 first downs to Western Michigan - a middle-of-the-pack MAC offense. WMU RB Franklin rushed for 163 yards and 3 scores, repeatedly gashing this Purdue defensive front. The Boilers came away with a W, and ow they've got a chance to build a little momentum and confidence against another directional Michigan. Central Michigan opened its season with a narrow victory against FCS Chattanooga. Chattanooga actually had a 16-0 lead before CMU went on a 20-0 run to close it out. It wasn't a sharp performance by any means, but the Chippewas churned out 150 rush yards and had an efficient day from QB Rush (15-of-26 for 173 yards and 2 TD) and that was enough to get the W. Central Michigan is 3-19 in its last 22 against the Big Ten - playing at least one school every season. They are on a 6-3 ATS run against Big Ten schools, earning 3 SU wins in the process (Indiana in 2008, Michigan State in 2009, and Iowa in 2012). Purdue is just 3-9 ATS in the last 12 home games.

Nebraska vs. McNeese State - 12:00 PM EST
Nebraska put together the most complete performance of any Big Ten team in week one. Florida Atlantic was overmatched in almost every way as the Huskers dominated their way to a 55-7 win. The Huskers gained 784 yards of offense and achieved 35 first downs. They rumbled for 498 rush yards and five rushing touchdowns behind 232 rush yards by star RB Abdullah. QB Armstrong Jr. added 271 pass yards and two scores. Defensively they held the Owls to just 200 yards and 13 first downs. FAU QB's Johnson and Hankerson struggled against this Huskers pass defense, completing just 11-of-30 passes for 95 yards. This week they get McNeese State, who finished 10-3 last year and has upset an FBS school in each of the past two seasons (Middle Tennessee State in 2012 and South Florida in 2013).

Wisconsin vs. Western Illinois - 12:00 PM EST
The loss to LSU won't affect Wisconsin's ability to win the conference, but the complete letdown in the 2nd half and the utter lack of a passing attack certainly presented some red flags. Wisconsin built a 24-3 lead and appeared to be in complete control of the game. LSU mounted a comeback in the 2nd half and took away Wisconsin's rushing attack. QB McEvoy couldn't capitalize as he finished just 8-of-24 for 50 yards and 2 2nd half INT's. Coach Gary Anderson has stated that backup QB Stave (2013's starter) has some issues and is not available to play, so McEvoy's job is not in jeopardy at the moment. Star RB Gordon finished with 140 rush yards, but had just four attempts in the 2nd half - after the game the coaches cited a hip injury being the reason for that. Gordon won't miss any time, but the Badgers need to put together more of a passing attack if they want to compete for a Big Ten title. This week they get a refresher against FCS Western Illinois at Camp Randall, where they've won 18 straight home openers by an average of 20 PPG.

Rutgers vs. Howard - 12:00 PM EST
The Scarlet Knights made a memorable debut of their 2013 season, going across the country and winning at Washington State, 41-38. Rutgers scored a TD with 3:24 left to take the lead, then held off WSU for the final minutes to seal the victory. QB Nova completed 16-of-27 passes for 281 yards and two scores (1 INT) while RB James churned out 173 rush yards and 3 scores. Defensively they took their lumps against Mike Leach's aerial attack as WSU completed 40-of-56 passes for 532 yards and five scores. Credit the Knights for winning the shootout and starting off their inaugural season in the B1G with a win. This week they get FCS Howard at home. Howard was shut-out by Akron last week, 41-0.

Indiana - Bye Week
Indiana has one of the better offensive line units in the nation and they used it to perfection last week against FCS Indiana State. The Hoosiers ran the ball 69 times for 455 yards (6.6 YPC) and four scores. RB's Coleman and Roberts combined for 376 of those rush yards and QB Sudfeld only had to attempt 18 passes. If Indiana has successfully instilled a rushing presence into its offensive arsenal - they could be a serious sleeper in the Big Ten. The defense also had a promising effort, albeit against an FCS program, as it allowed just 170 total yards and 10 first downs. They get a bye week before traveling to Bowling Green next week.

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Michigan State at Oregon

September 5, 2014


Matchup: Michigan State at Oregon
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Date: Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014
Time/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: Oregon -12, Over/Under 56

The marquee matchup of Week 2 will take place at Autzen Stadium in Eugene where Oregon (1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) will play host to Michigan State. This is a great opportunity for both schools to get a resume-building victory, while the loser will have plenty of time to recover and can still get to the College Football Playoff.

As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Oregon favored by 12 or 12.5 with a total of 56. Gamblers can take the Spartans on the money line for a +350 return (risk $100 to win $350).

Mark Helfrich's team rolled to a 62-13 season-opening win over South Dakota last week, but the Ducks failed to cover the enormous 52-point spread. The 75 combined points went 'over' the 71.5-point total with 9:21 remaining.

Marcus Mariota completed 14-of-20 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. The Heisman Trophy candidate ran six times for 43 yards and another score. Byron Marshall had eight carries for 90 yards while also catching eight balls for 132 yards and a pair of TDs. Royce Freeman, the Ducks' top recruit in the 2014 class, had 10 carries for 75 yards and a pair of TDs, including a 26-yard TD scamper midway through the second quarter.

Michigan State (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) cruised past Jacksonville St. by a 45-7 count as a 34-point home 'chalk' in its opener last Friday (note the extra day of rest that should compensate for the day of travel). Connor Cook connected on 12-of-13 throws for 285 yards and three TDs without an interception. Nick Hill rushed for a pair of scores and Tony Lippett finished with four catches for 167 yards and two TDs.

This is the 15th straight game in which Oregon has been favored by a double-digit margin. The Ducks cashed tickets at an 8-5 ATS clip last season.

Michigan St. owns a 10-6 spread record as a road underdog during Mark Dantonio's eight-year tenure. The last time the Spartans were double-digit 'dogs was at Notre Dame in 2009, when they covered the number in a nail-biting 33-30 loss to the Fighting Irish as 10-point puppies. Sparty owns a 2-1 ATS ledger in three games as a double-digit 'dog on Dantonio's watch.

Whether at home or on the road or at a neutral site, Michigan St. has taken the cash in eight consecutive underdog situations, winning outright in five of those spots. Going back to October of 2011, the Spartans are 10-1 ATS with six outright victories in their last 11 games as 'dogs.

Both teams will play without a pair of expected starters. Oregon's Bralon Addison, who had 61 receptions for 890 yards and seven TDs, remains out after tearing his ACL in the spring. Addison was a second-team All Pac-12 selection last year. Another All Pac-12 second-teamer, OT Tyler Johnstone, was lost to a season-ending ACL tear in August.

Sparty won't have nose tackle Damon Knox or OG Connor Kruse.

Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Cook has a 26/7 career TD-INT ratio.

-- Baylor WR Levi Norwood is out for at least three weeks after suffering a wrist injury that will require surgery. Norwood, who had 47 receptions for 733 yards and eight TDs in 2013, hopes to return for the Bears' next tough game -- at Texas on Oct. 4. Baylor will also be without Antwan Goodley (quad) this week against Northwestern St. Goodley had a team-high 71 catches for 1,339 yards and 13 TDs last season.

-- Most spots have South Carolina favored by 16.5 over East Carolina. The Gamecocks are 26-20 ATS as home favorites during Steve Spurrier's tenure, while the Pirates are 5-10 ATS as road underdogs under Ruffin McNeill.

-- East Carolina QB Shane Carden has a 59/20 career TD-INT ratio. He's poised to overtake David Garrard as ECU's all-time leader in passing yards later this year. Carden has a big-time WR in Justin Hardy, who is already the Pirates' all-time leader in receiving yards. This combo will pose another tough challenge for a South Carolina secondary that got torched by Texas A&M last week.

-- A pair of former Gator QBs led their new teams to victories last weekend. Boston College's Tyler Murphy completed 17-of-24 passes for 173 yards with one TD and one interception. He also rushed 13 times for 118 yards and one score in the Eagles' 30-7 win at Massachusetts as 17-point road favorites. Jacoby Brissett, who sat out last season after transferring from Florida, sparked North Carolina St. to a 24-23 come-from-behind win over Ga. Southern. Brissett connected on 28-of-40 throws for 291 yards with a 3/1 TD-INT ratio.

-- One of the biggest stars of Week 1 was Rutgers RB Paul James, who looked like a beast in the Scarlet Knights' 41-38 win at Washington St. James produced 173 rushing yards and three TDs on 29 totes in what was a huge win for Kyle Flood's team.

-- Western Kentucky QB Brandon Doughty was a turnover machine in a blowout loss at Tennessee last year. But in last week's 59-31 win over Bowling Green, Doughty completed 46-of-56 passes for 569 yards and six TDs without a pick.

-- Speaking of the Falcons, they won't have QB Matt Johnson for the rest of the season after he sustained a hip injury in the loss. Johnson threw for 3,467 yards with a 25/7 TD-INT ratio while leading Bowling Green to 10 wins in 2013.

-- As if Northwestern hadn't caught enough bad breaks over the last 12 months, piss-poor news struck again Thursday when Tony Jones was declared 'out' of Saturday's home game vs. No. Illinois. Jones had a team-high 55 receptions last season and had team-bests in catches (seven) and yards (64) in last week's 31-24 home loss to California. The Wildcats are already without their other best WR Christian Jones, who tore his ACL in August.