The Bum's NFL November's POD'S Stats-News Etc. !

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NFL

Monday, November 18

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Monday Night Football betting: Patriots at Panthers
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New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46)

Cam Newton made a splashy entrance on the NFL scene, posting spectacular numbers that did not translate into wins for the Carolina Panthers and the former No. 1 overall pick. Newton may not be putting up head-spinning stats, but the victories keep piling up for the Panthers, who will go for their sixth consecutive win when they host the New England Patriots on Monday night. The Patriots had a bye week to prepare for Carolina following a 55-31 demolition of Pittsburgh on Nov. 3.

Although the Panthers scored at least 30 points in four straight games prior to last week's 10-9 win at San Francisco, they have been dominant on the other side of the ball, ranking second in the league in points allowed at 12.8 per game. "They're one of the best defenses in the league," New England quarterback Tom Brady said. "We have to play really well. I think our execution has to be at its best." The Patriots hold a two-game lead in the AFC East while Carolina is a game behind New Orleans in the NFC South.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: The Panthers opened at -1 and have been bet to -3. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet up to 46.

WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the low-50s with a 10 percent chance of rain.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-2): New England is coming off its best offensive performance of the season in the mauling of the Steelers, getting 432 yards and
four touchdown passes from Brady and 100-yard games from tight end Rob Gronkowski and wideouts Danny Amendola and rookie Aaron Dobson. Stevan Ridley complemented the aerial attack with 115 yards rushing and two TDs as the Patriots amassed 610 yards of total offense. The Patriots' defense has been rocked by season-ending injuries to Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork and middle linebacker Jerod Mayo, but could get back star cornerback Aqib Talib, who has been sidelined the past three games by a hip injury.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (6-3): Carolina's defense, led by tackling machine Luke Kuechly at linebacker, has surrendered 11.4 points during the winning streak
and limited San Francisco to three field goals and 151 total yards last week. Defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy have combined for 13.5 sacks
- "We take what we want," Hardy said of a unit that ranks second overall (283.3 yards) and tied for fourth against the pass (201.3). Newton has not thrown for more than 249 yards during the five-game run, but he has seven scoring passes and three TD runs in that span while directing a ball-control offense that averages 127.8 yards on the ground.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 5-0 in their last five Monday Night games.
* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Patriots last five Monday Night games.
* Over is 13-3-2 in Panthers last 18 versus a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady is 13-4 on Monday night for the Patriots, who outlasted Carolina 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

2. Second-year LB Kuechly is averaging a shade under 10 tackles in 25 career games.

3. New England has forced a turnover in 36 straight games, the longest active streak in the league.

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NFL

Monday, November 18

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Tale of the Tape: New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
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Tom Brady and the rejuvenated New England Patriots offense face their toughest test of the season Monday night when they travel to Carolina for a date with the Panthers.

Brady looked like his old self in the Patriots' last game, throwing for 432 yards and four touchdowns as New England blasted the Pittsburgh Steelers 55-31 before enjoying a much-needed bye week. The Panthers are red-hot in their own right, riding a five-game winning streak while limiting opponents to just 57 total points over that stretch.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Brady and the Patriots scuffled through the first half of the season - dealing with injuries to Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen - but still managed to reel off eight victories in their first 10 games. New England comes into Week 11 sitting 20th overall in passing yardage (2,088), but has thrown just six interceptions against 13 touchdowns. The Patriots have excelled in the run game so far, ranked eighth in total yardage (1,162) while racking up 10 scores.

Third-year quarterback Cam Newton has had an uneven season to date; the Panthers rank fourth from the bottom in total passing yardage (1,762), but Newton has completed nearly 63 percent of his passes and ranks 11th in QB rating (88.3). He has thrown 13 touchdown passes but has been intercepted eight times. The run game has looked ordinary, ranked 10th overall in yardage (1,150) with 10 touchdowns but averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.

Edge: New England


Defense

The Patriots have had to deal with a litany of injuries on the defense corps - but it's difficult to tell by looking at the numbers. New England has allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards so far (2,095) while limiting opponents to 13 touchdowns and hauling in 12 interceptions. The run defense has been less effective - teams are averaging better than 128 yards per game versus the Patriots but New England has only surrendered four touchdowns on the ground.

No team in football does a better job of limiting opposition yardage than the Panthers. Carolina has clamped down on opponents' pass attacks, allowing the fourth-fewest yards through the air (1,812) while giving up just seven touchdowns and intercepting 13 passes - tied for the most in the NFL entering Week 11. The run defense has been even more impressive, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards (738) on 3.8 yards per carry while permitting only two scores.

Edge: Carolina


Special Teams

The Patriots have had an up-and-down return game so far, ranked 24th in average kickoff return (21.9 yards) and ninth in average punt return (11.5). They've been stingy when it comes to special teams defense, allowing the fifth-lowest kick-return average (20.5) while limiting opponents to 9.3 yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Steven Gostkowski has been one of the top kickers in the league yet again, converting 22-of-23 field-goal opportunities.

Carolina ranks 20th in the league in kick-return average (22.4) and 16th in punt-return average (8.7). That results in a modest special teams net loss, as the Panthers are allowing opponents to average 23.4 yards per kick return and 9.4 yards per punt return. Panthers placekicker Graham Gano has been solid to date, making 13-of-14 field-goal attempts; he hit from 53 yards out but missed a 48-yarder in last week's victory over San Francisco.

Edge: Patriots


Notable Quotable

"(The Panthers have) a problem on their hands. Shane is a playmaker out of the backfield. Whether it's on the ground or through the air, he does it well. I'm excited to have him back out there, and I know he's ready to play. He was hungry coming into this year and started out hot." - Patriots RB Stevan Ridley on teammate Vereen, who will suit up for the first time since suffering a wrist injury in Week 1

"We're relevant right now. But we can't just stop and say, 'Hey, let's pop bottles. Let's celebrate, order some hot wings and pizza. We're just halfway through the season. We just have to continue doing the things that's putting this feeling in our hearts because it's becoming a special thing to watch." - Newton

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Monday, November 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 8:40 PM ET New England +3 500 POD # 1

Carolina - Over 46 500 POD # 2



Remember now This is a DBAB Game........AS last night was DBAP_ game.....when they are the only game on the BIG STAGE Don't bet aganist Brady And Peyton .....


GOOD LUCK

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Saints at Falcons

November 20, 2013


The Falcons were within one touchdown of making the Super Bowl last season, but Atlanta is just two wins above zero nearing Thanksgiving this season. Atlanta sits at the bottom of the NFC South with a 2-8 record, while being listed as a heavy home underdog against the division-leading Saints on Thursday night, as New Orleans is looking to set itself up for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.

The Saints start a stretch with four of the next five games away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, while heading to Seattle for an epic showdown in 11 days which may decide the top-seed in the NFC. Sean Payton's team picked up an important conference victory last Sunday against San Francisco, who suffered its second crushing defeat in New Orleans since February's Super Bowl defeat to Baltimore. The Niners were in line to grab the road win with a 20-17 lead late in the fourth quarter as San Francisco LB Ahmad Brooks sacked Saints' quarterback Drew Brees and caused a fumble. In spite of San Francisco recovering the fumble, Brooks was flagged for a personal foul and negating the turnover, even though the linebacker never hit Brees with his head.

New Orleans took advantage of the second chance by driving down to kick the game-tying field goal with two minutes remaining, then Garrett Hartley drilled the game-winner from 31 yards out to give the Saints a 23-20 triumph. The 49ers managed to cover as 3 ½-point road underdogs, but San Francisco backers felt like this team should have cashed outright. The two teams combined for just one touchdown in the second half, as the 'under' of 50 hit with little pressure.

It seems like each week the Falcons are hitting rock-bottom with every defeat, but Atlanta allowed a season-high 41 points to Tampa Bay this past Sunday. The Buccaneers picked up only their second victory of the season, equaling the Falcons in the win department with a 41-28 rout that wasn't even that close. Tampa Bay built a 38-6 lead in the third quarter, as Atlanta scored two late touchdowns to make the score closer, while Bobby Rainey rushed for a career-best 163 yards and two scores.

The Falcons have lost four straight games for the first time in the Mike Smith era, as the last skid of this length came back in 2007. Atlanta has yielded at least 27 points in its previous seven defeats, while the least amount of points given up by the Falcons in a loss came in the season-opening defeat at New Orleans.

The Saints rallied for a 23-17 home triumph to kick off the season at the Superdome, overcoming an early 10-0 deficit to the Falcons. Brees torched the Atlanta defense for 357 yards and two touchdowns, while Falcons' quarterback Matt Ryan put together the first of five 300-yard games on the season. New Orleans has won eight of the last 10 meetings with Atlanta since 2008, as the Saints are 3-1 the last four visits to the Georgia Dome.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says Atlanta won't give up in spite of its struggles, "You're starting to hear vocal support for Coach Smith from both management and key players, which means the Falcons haven't quit on him despite this nightmare season. Seeing that materialize on the field would help, too, especially on the heels of losing to Tampa. Atlanta would get up for playing New Orleans in two-hand touch at a company picnic, so if nothing else, you'll see a strong effort. The Saints can't afford to just show up, especially since they must overcome missing pieces on defense against a capable Ryan. This might wind up a blowout, but going in expecting the Falcons to just roll over against their primary NFC South rival would be a mistake."

From a totals perspective, the Saints have hit the 'over' in five of the last seven games, while Atlanta has eclipsed the 'over' in four of five home contests. The Falcons are involved in their second game with a total higher than 50 this season, as the opener at New Orleans went 'under' the total of 54 ½. The Saints are 2-2 to the 'over' in totals above 50, while scoring at least 26 points three times in this total range.

The Saints are listed as 9 ½-point road favorites, while the total is set between 53 and 53 ½. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from the Georgia Dome and can be seen on the NFL Network.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six NFL trends with Week 12 around the corner.......

-- Falcons are 2-7-1 vs spread in last ten divisional games.

-- Carolina covered nine of last twelve road games.

-- Houston didn't cover any of its last six home games.

-- Patriots covered seven of last nine at home.

-- 49ers covered six of their last seven games as a road favorite.

-- Steelers are 6-15 vs spread in their last 21 road games.


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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud

13) Early line on next week’s Iron Bowl, which has become even bigger than normal given Auburn’s terrific season; Alabama -15.5.

12) New kickoff rules in NFL have created a lot more touchbacks than there used to be, so lot more drives start 80+ yards from the goal line; which teams are the best at long drives? Which teams have had the most/least long drives? That’s why I’m here, to inform you on such things.

11) You watch Alex Smith play and wonder how on God’s green earth the Chiefs are 9-1. Well, he doesn’t make mistakes, and the Chiefs rarely give their opponent a short field. In ten games, KC has started 46 drives (2nd-least in NFL) at their own 20 or worse field position; their opponents have started 81 (most in NFL).

Chiefs win because they’ve forced opponents to play on a longer field. They lost to the Broncos because Denver has an offense that can drive 80+ yards with no problem, and the Chiefs’ offense couldn’t keep up.

10) On flip side, Falcons/Redskins are both -22, meaning they’ve both started 22 more drives 80+ yards from the goal line than their opponents have. Atlanta has the 4th-best ppp on long drives, but they’ve seldom had a short field this season.

9) When you look at points/possession on those long drives, five teams are averaging 2+ points/possession on long drives: Panthers (2.60), Broncos (2.56), Seattle (2.15), Atlanta (2.04) and the Bears (2.00).

Have to credit Chicago coach Marc Trestman for the job he’s done coaching backup Josh McCown while starting QB Cutler has been out injured.

8) Which teams are worst at driving from their own 20? Jaguars (0.74), Browns (0.90), Jets/Raiders (both 0.97) are the four worst in this category.

7) Besides the Chiefs, which teams have won the field position battle? Answer is: the winning teams. Denver (+23), Patriots (+22), Carolina (+21), Seattle (+20) are the next four teams in this category, behind the Chiefs’ +35.

6) Carlos Ruiz gets three years, $26M to stay in Philly, hit cheap homers for my fantasy team; Tim Hudson gets $23M for two years to go back to the Bay Area, this time on the wrong (SF) side of the bay.

5) Golfer Peter Uihlein is the first American to win Rookie of the Year on the European Tour. Lot of these golfers have well-worn passports; they go all over the world to play. Think the European Tour allows appearance fees, which are obviously very attractive. As Don Henley once sang, “……the lure of easy money has a very strong appeal.”

4) ESPN is wasting whatever money it pays refereeing analyst Gerry Austin; he gagged bigtime commenting on the non-call at the end of the Patriot-Carolina game Monday night.

If you’re not going to criticize when the refs screw up, then don’t take money for being a officiating analyst. The refs fouled up, Austin wouldn’t say they were wrong, and he made ESPN look bad in the process.

3) If you’re the Patriots and Tom Brady is coming down to the end of a tremendous career, how do you not get him better receivers? Seriously, besides Brady, who gets paid a ton on this team? Its ridiculous how New England basically had to do on-the-job training with its receivers. Some of it was losing Aaron Hernandez and Gronkowski being hurt, but they’re TE’s anyway. Belichick the coach is better than Belichick the personnel guy.

2) Worst part of the Monday night game ending the way it did was that it obscured what a terrific game it was, with an all-time great QB doing matching plays against a future great QB.

Imagine if Carolina played Denver in the Super Bowl? Think former Panther coach John Fox would be busy on Media Day?

1) Super Bowl is in 74 days, Winter Olympics start four days later, pitchers/catchers report in the week after that. Before you know it, it’ll be spring!!! Well, not quite, but time seems to fly as I get older.

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NFL Week 12 opening line report: Manning has more than Brady

Manning vs. Brady treats NFL bettors to football’s version of Frazier vs. Ali in Week 12. However, this time, Frazier (Manning) is swinging a set of cement gloves while Ali (Brady) is throwing around a pair of down pillows.

(We tab Brady as Ali simply because he’s had Manning’s number more often than not and is the more decorated of the two QBs. Please let us know if you have a better sports analogy for this one.)

Oddsmakers have set Brady and the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs hosting Manning and the Broncos Sunday night, but one Las Vegas oddsmakers doesn’t think the line is high enough given the supporting cast surrounding both star quarterbacks.

“I just don’t think (New England has) the talent to beat Denver,” Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. Korner says he brought a spread of Denver -3.5 to the table and sent out -3. However, books are dealing this game as low as New England +1.

“It just looks low,” Korner says of the current spread. “The Broncos bring a lot more to the table. Manning didn’t have great success in these big games as a Colt but in Denver he has so much around him. Denver, by far, has the better talent. I don’t think the Pats have enough this year to make it an easy game.”

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+9.5, 53)

This NFC South showdown has been reduced to a dud Thursday nighter, thanks to the Falcons’ fall from grace.

The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened this game Atlanta -4 when it released its "Game of the Year" odds back in May – a near two-TD swing when compared to what books are dealing now. Some offshores opened as low as a touchdown but took instant action on the Saints, something Korner believes books should be prepared for.

“Atlanta is not going to get well here,” he says. “New Orleans need this win and it’s just asking for money on the favorite and Over. Atlanta just isn’t the same team it was last year and why would you expect something different? Because it’s not going to be. Why would (books) screw around and hope for something that hasn’t been there all season? Keep the Saints high.”


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Most markets are waiting on word of Aaron Rodgers’ status for Sunday’s divisional matchup with Minnesota. But it looks like Cheese Heads may have to grind out one more week before Green Bay’s QB is back from a broken collarbone.

“Not much to say. Rodgers doesn’t figure to be back, so Green Bay -4 on this on,” says Korner, who believes the line would jump to -8 or 8.5 is Rodgers is upgraded to probable. “(The Packers) weren’t blowing people away when he was in, but Minnesota just doesn’t have it. They both need this game. These are the best games to book because they’re the hardest games to pick.”


Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5, 46.5)

The Giants have risen from the depths of the NFC East and appear to be one of the hottest teams in the conference, winning four in a row after a 0-6 start. Dallas, on the other hand, comes off the bye week which followed an embarrassing loss to New Orleans in Week 10.

“They’re right back in the mix,” Korner says of New York, which he sent out as a 2.5-point home favorite. “The Giants are the ones who are peaking now and money will be on New York. This spread could go up to -3 but I don’t think it’ll go much farther. Dallas has its big following. It’s a much bigger game than it was three weeks ago.”

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NFL line watch: Lookahead looms for Lions vs. Bucs

Spread to bet now

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) at Detroit Lions

There are a couple of 10's out there, but this line is dropping fast. As of writing, a 10 is still available but for the most part 9.5's, 9's and even a couple of 8.5's predominate. Sharps were quick to jump on the double-digit spread.

The once 0-8 Bucs are off back-to-back victories, scoring a whopping 63 combined points in the process. The Lions are coming off a disappointing 37-27 loss in Pittsburgh in which they scored all of their points in the second quarter and would allow the Steelers to post 17 unanswered in the second half.

With the lowly Buccaneers on deck and a game versus division rival Green Bay next week, this sets up as a classic lookahead spot for the home side Sunday.


Spread to wait on

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals lead the AFC North with a 7-4 record. The Steelers, Browns and defending champion Ravens are all tied at 4-6. To say this is a big game for both teams would be an understatement.

The loser of this divisional contest will be eliminated from contention. This is the first contest between the clubs this season (they play again at Heinz Field on the final week) and the stakes simply couldn't be higher.

Back-to-back victories for the Steelers, in which they've scored a combined 60 points, has the Black and Gold right back in the conversation. Conversely, the up-and-down Browns have lost four of their last five, including last week's disturbing 41-20 effort at Cincinnati.

It appears bettors believe that Pittsburgh has turned a corner, so if you think that Cleveland has something up its sleeve, I'd recommend waiting a little closer to kickoff before getting down with the Browns.


Total to watch

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (56)

This much-anticipated game will be played on a blustery Sunday night in late November in New England. Unlike the U.S. mail service, Denver QB Peyton Manning isn't quite at his best in rain, sleet, snow and hail.

After eclipsing the number in eight straight contests, the Bronco's high-flying offense has slowed down a bit with both games versus the Chargers and Chiefs falling below the posted number. The Patriots' patchwork offense has been a work in progress all season, looking brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others.

This total opened at 56 and for the most part that number predominates. However, there are a few 55.5's starting to make an appearance now as well. This is definitely one total to keep our eyes on as the week progresses.

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NFL Week 12 opening line report: Manning has more than Brady

Manning vs. Brady treats NFL bettors to football’s version of Frazier vs. Ali in Week 12. However, this time, Frazier (Manning) is swinging a set of cement gloves while Ali (Brady) is throwing around a pair of down pillows.

(We tab Brady as Ali simply because he’s had Manning’s number more often than not and is the more decorated of the two QBs. Please let us know if you have a better sports analogy for this one.)

Oddsmakers have set Brady and the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs hosting Manning and the Broncos Sunday night, but one Las Vegas oddsmakers doesn’t think the line is high enough given the supporting cast surrounding both star quarterbacks.

“I just don’t think (New England has) the talent to beat Denver,” Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. Korner says he brought a spread of Denver -3.5 to the table and sent out -3. However, books are dealing this game as low as New England +1.

“It just looks low,” Korner says of the current spread. “The Broncos bring a lot more to the table. Manning didn’t have great success in these big games as a Colt but in Denver he has so much around him. Denver, by far, has the better talent. I don’t think the Pats have enough this year to make it an easy game.”

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+9.5, 53)

This NFC South showdown has been reduced to a dud Thursday nighter, thanks to the Falcons’ fall from grace.

The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened this game Atlanta -4 when it released its "Game of the Year" odds back in May – a near two-TD swing when compared to what books are dealing now. Some offshores opened as low as a touchdown but took instant action on the Saints, something Korner believes books should be prepared for.

“Atlanta is not going to get well here,” he says. “New Orleans need this win and it’s just asking for money on the favorite and Over. Atlanta just isn’t the same team it was last year and why would you expect something different? Because it’s not going to be. Why would (books) screw around and hope for something that hasn’t been there all season? Keep the Saints high.”


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Most markets are waiting on word of Aaron Rodgers’ status for Sunday’s divisional matchup with Minnesota. But it looks like Cheese Heads may have to grind out one more week before Green Bay’s QB is back from a broken collarbone.

“Not much to say. Rodgers doesn’t figure to be back, so Green Bay -4 on this on,” says Korner, who believes the line would jump to -8 or 8.5 is Rodgers is upgraded to probable. “(The Packers) weren’t blowing people away when he was in, but Minnesota just doesn’t have it. They both need this game. These are the best games to book because they’re the hardest games to pick.”


Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5, 46.5)

The Giants have risen from the depths of the NFC East and appear to be one of the hottest teams in the conference, winning four in a row after a 0-6 start. Dallas, on the other hand, comes off the bye week which followed an embarrassing loss to New Orleans in Week 10.

“They’re right back in the mix,” Korner says of New York, which he sent out as a 2.5-point home favorite. “The Giants are the ones who are peaking now and money will be on New York. This spread could go up to -3 but I don’t think it’ll go much farther. Dallas has its big following. It’s a much bigger game than it was three weeks ago.”

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NFL Top 3: NFC long shots with a fighting chance

The NFC playoff picture is looking messier the turf at Soldier Field.

With several teams still in contention heading into the final six weeks of the season, every game becomes especially pivotal. And while roster composition and health will go a long way in deciding who gets in and who doesn't, the biggest deciding factor could be strength of schedule - particularly where dark-horse teams are concerned.

Here are three teams on the periphery of the playoff race that could rally late in the season (Super Bowl odds courtesy TopBet.eu):

New York Giants (+2,500)

The Giants' odds to win it all have dropped dramatically since Eli Manning and Co. opened the campaign with six consecutive losses. A four-game winning streak hasn't exactly made New York a Super Bowl favorite, but with the NFC East in shambles and the Giants just a game and a half back of division-leading Philadelphia, hope remains alive. Winning back-to-back division games against Dallas and Washington, and surviving a visit from Seattle, are critical, but with Manning playing better and the defense looking strong, the Giants have a shot.


Green Bay Packers (+4,000)

The Packers have gone into a tailspin, losing three consecutive games as they've struggled to make do without injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay was the top team in the NFC North before he broke his collarbone and there's no reason to think they can't be when he returns. Green Bay has several winnable games remaining - Minnesota, Atlanta and Pittsburgh among them - and a healthy Rogers should have little trouble generating plenty of offense against weak pass defenses in Detroit and Dallas.


Arizona Cardinals (+10,000)

Few suspected the Cardinals would find themselves in position to challenge for a wildcard berth this late into the season. But here they are, tied with San Francisco for second spot in the NFC West. With the Seattle Seahawks a good bet to win the division title, the Cardinals and 49ers will likely duke it out for the chance to secure one of two wildcard spots. Arizona has a difficult closing stretch, finishing up with games against the Seahawks and Niners. But with four winnable games leading into that (vs. Indianapolis, at Philadelphia, vs. St. Louis, at Tennessee), the Cardinals could surprise.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

New Orleans at Atlanta
The Saints look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 5 games against the Falcons. New Orleans is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Game 107-108: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.250; Atlanta 124.251
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 16; 57
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9; 53
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9); Over


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 24

Game 209-210: Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.582; Detroit 135.111
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 9 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+9 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.849; Houston 126.937
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+10); Over

Game 213-214: Minnesota at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 122.954; Green Bay 136.887
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 40
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 4 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-4 1/2); Under

Game 215-216: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 129.549; Kansas City 139.034
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Carolina at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 138.175; Miami 136.625
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+4 1/2); Over

Game 219-220: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 126.408; Cleveland 133.629
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 44
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 40
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Over

Game 221-222: Chicago at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.228; St. Louis 130.116
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4; 41
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2); Under

Game 223-224: NY Jets at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.784; Baltimore 130.646
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 4; 39
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+4); Over

Game 225-226: Tennessee at Oakland (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.678; Oakland 128.715
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 37
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-1); Under

Game 227-228: Indianapolis at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 136.034; Arizona 135.246
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+2 1/2); Under

Game 229-230: Dallas at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.833; NY Giants 134.716
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4; 52
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Over

Game 231-232: Denver at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 140.509; New England 141.251
Dunkel Line: New England by 1; 60
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Game 233-234: San Francisco at Washington (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.796; Washington 129.253
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 21

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NEW ORLEANS (8 - 2) at ATLANTA (2 - 8) - 11/21/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 24

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 8) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 9) at HOUSTON (2 - 8) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
HOUSTON is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 8) at GREEN BAY (5 - 5) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 154-111 ATS (+31.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (9 - 1) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (7 - 3) at MIAMI (5 - 5) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 6) at CLEVELAND (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (6 - 4) at ST LOUIS (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 95-131 ATS (-49.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (5 - 5) at BALTIMORE (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (4 - 6) at OAKLAND (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 37-68 ATS (-37.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-67 ATS (-40.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 3) at ARIZONA (6 - 4) - 11/24/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (5 - 5) at NY GIANTS (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 30-54 ATS (-29.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (9 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) - 11/24/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 79-46 ATS (+28.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 156-117 ATS (+27.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DENVER is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 25

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SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 7) - 11/25/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 21

8:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans


Sunday, November 24

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego
Kansas City is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against San Diego

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games on the road
NY Jets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Baltimore is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 12 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing Chicago
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games

4:05 PM
TENNESSEE vs. OAKLAND
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Tennessee

4:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. ARIZONA
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
Dallas is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the NY Giants last 9 games when playing Dallas

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 15 games when playing New England
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home


Monday, November 25

8:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. WASHINGTON
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Washington is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's game

Saints (8-2) @ Falcons (2-8)—Normally you’d look at this as trap game with Saints in between games with NFC powers 49ers/Seattle, but Atlanta is Saints’ biggest rival; they’ve beaten Falcons seven of last eight games, nipping them 23-17 (-3) in season opener when Atlanta couldn’t score in last minute from inside Saints’ 10-yard line. Can’t look at any Falcon trends this year, they’ve been so bad past trends don’t matter; Atlanta lost last four games and seven of last eight- they were outscored 47-9 in first half of last two games and appear disinterested. Saints are only 2-2 on road, with wins by 2-8 points, but those games were outdoors; this is controlled climate of dome- NO is scoring 33 ppg in domes this year, 22.3 outdoors- they won five of last seven visits to Peachtree Street, and won five of six second matches with Atlanta when they won first meeting that season. Saints have nine TDs on last 11 red zone drives; Falcons have four TDs on last eight. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 9-8-1 vs spread. Seven of last nine Atlanta games, four of last five Saint games went over the total.




NFL

Thursday, November 21

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Saints at Falcons: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+10, 53)

The New Orleans Saints are riding high after another comeback victory, and they hope to continue that momentum as they travel to Atlanta to face the struggling Falcons on Thursday. The Saints booted three fourth-quarter field goals to edge San Francisco 23-20 on Sunday and maintain their NFC South lead. They might not need a late rally against the Falcons - the Saints have won five of the last six meetings and 12 of the last 15, including a 23-17 home victory in Week 1.

The Falcons have lost four straight for the first time since 2007 - also the last time they finished with a losing record - but coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff received a vote of confidence from owner Arthur Blank after Sunday's 41-28 loss to Tampa Bay. "It's a tough business. We've had a lot of injuries, and issues on top of the injuries," Blank told reporters. "These guys are proven leaders and proven by success. … They'll do the work that has to be done with my full support." A win over the Saints would go a long way in backing up that faith, but that's a long shot against a New Orleans team that ranks in the top five in the NFL in total yards and scoring on both sides of the ball.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The line opened with the Falcons as +7 home dogs and have been bet to +10. The total has been steady at 53.

WEATHER: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-6.0) + Atlanta (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = New Orleans -8.5

ABOUT THE SAINTS (8-2, 6-4 ATS): New Orleans might be the most complete team in the league with Drew Brees directing the potent pass-heavy attack and
defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's revamped unit continuing to play well. Injuries are mounting on the defensive side, though, with cornerback Jabari Greer suffering a gruesome knee injury Sunday and rookie safety Kenny Vaccaro still questionable after missing the past two games. The Saints are far more susceptible on the road, where they've lost to New England and the New York Jets and survived close contests at Tampa Bay and Chicago.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (2-8, 2-8 ATS): Atlanta's defense was shredded by a rookie quarterback and a running back making his first NFL start versus Tampa Bay, so the Falcons might be in big trouble against Brees and the Saints' high-powered attack. The offense has been far too one-dimensional, ranking 31st at 73.1 rushing yards per game, which doesn't bode well against the Saints' third-ranked pass defense. Atlanta's defense is getting closer to full strength with linebacker Sean Weatherspoon back, but the unit continues to struggle and has allowed more than 400 total yards in two straight games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees (49,288) needs 38 passing yards to move past Warren Moon for fifth in NFL history. John Elway is fourth at 51,475.

2. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan's 14 interceptions match his career high set in 2009 and tied last season, and his 89.2 rating is his lowest since an 80.9 mark in 2009.

3. The Falcons are the only team since 2009 to hold Brees without a touchdown pass, as he threw five interceptions without a TD in a 23-13 loss at Atlanta last season


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NFL

Thursday, November 21

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Tale of the Tape: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
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The New Orleans Saints look to add to the misery of a division rival as they face the host Atlanta Falcons in the Week 12 Thursday nighter.

New Orleans has reeled off back-to-back victories to remain one game ahead of the hard-charging Carolina Panthers in the NFC South. The Falcons are immersed in their own position battle - specifically, looking to stay out of the division basement as they bring a six-game losing streak into this one.

Read the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Saints continue rolling along on the offensive side of the football, sitting third in total yards (4,191) on the strength of a passing game that ranks behind only the Denver Broncos in terms of efficiency. Quarterback Drew Brees is on pace for his fourth career 5,000-yard passing campaign, with 26 touchdown throws against just eight interceptions. The rushing game hasn't been nearly as effective, ranked 23rd in the NFL at 97.2 yards per game with just seven TDs.

Atlanta was built to compete offensively with a team like the Saints, but injuries have limited its ability to do that in 2013. Quarterback Matt Ryan has had to do without top receivers Julio Jones (foot, out for season) and Roddy White (hamstring) for major chunks of the season, resulting in the Atlanta passing offense ranking eighth in total yards after going into the year as a consensus top-3 unit. The running game is dreadful, recording the second-fewest yards in the NFL.

Edge: New Orleans


Defense

New Orleans hasn't traditionally been equated with shut-down defense, but times have changed. New Orleans comes into Thursday's game having allowed the second-fewest passing yards in football (1,914) - behind only the Houston Texans - and its 11 passing touchdowns against is tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. New Orleans is allowing 4.9 yards per carry, but has faced just 234 attempts - third-fewest in the NFL - as teams try to keep up with its pass offense.

The Falcons' punchless offense isn't doing its defensive unit any favors. Atlanta ranks 21st in passing yards against (2,492) with 21 touchdowns against - third-most in football - and just six interceptions. Teams have also run at will against the Falcons, racking up the third most opponent yards in the league (1,327) while scoring eight touchdowns; the Falcons are the only team in football ranked 30th or lower in both offensive and defensive rushing yardage per game.

Edge: New Orleans


Special Teams

The Saints have fared well on kick returns so far in 2013, averaging the ninth-best rate in the league (24.5 yards); things haven't been as good on punt returns, where they're just 30th (6.4). New Orleans is allowing the sixth-highest kick-return average (25.2) but has limited opponents to 6.7 yards per punt-return attempt. Kicker Garrett Hartley had made just two of his previous six field-goal attempts entering Week 11, but went 3-for-3 in the win over San Francisco.

Atlanta's kick-return game has been solid, as it's averaging 24.3 yards per attempt - one spot behind New Orleans in the rankings. It sits 24th in punt-return average (7.3). Opponents have had virtually identical numbers against the Falcons, averaging 24.1 yards per kick-return attempt and 7.6 yards per punt-return try. Kicker Matt Bryant has been as good as they come this season, connecting on 13-of-14 field goal attempts - including two in last week's loss to Tampa Bay.

Edge: Atlanta


Notable Quotable

"We're equal-opportunity. Whoever's getting open, whoever's got the matchup, whoever's got the hot hand. We kind of feel that and see that as the game is going on. Guys kind of know that if it's not this week or next week, it might be the following week." - Brees

"There's times when it's going to be humbling. You learn from everything, the good the bad - and sometimes more from the bad than the good. I think everybody's trying to learn from it, apply it to themselves, find ways to get better, find ways to use it as motivation and just keep going forward." - Ryan

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 21

New Orleans at Atlanta, 8:25 ET
New Orleans: 22-11 ATS as a favorite
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS as an underdog


Sun, Nov. 24

Tampa Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 6-0 ATS in November games
Detroit: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 1-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Houston: 21-8 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Minnesota at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 8-2 OVER in all games
Green Bay: 15-6 ATS as a home favorite

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 14-5 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders
Kansas City: 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Carolina at Miami, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins
Miami: 20-38 ATS off a upset win as an underdog

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 6-15 ATS in road games
Cleveland: 25-8 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Chicago at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 2-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
St Louis: 12-4 OVER in dome games

New York at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
New York: 0-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
Baltimore: 24-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Tennessee at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Tennessee: 9-21 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Oakland: 16-32 ATS off a upset win as an underdog

Indianapolis at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Indianapolis: 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Arizona: 3-13 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins

Dallas at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
Dallas: 30-15 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points
NY Giants: 6-0 UNDER after a win by 14 or more points

Denver at New England, 8:30 ET
Denver: 8-2 OVER as a favorite
New England: 20-8 ATS as a home underdog


Mon, Nov. 25

San Francisco at Washington, 8:40 ET
San Francisco: 27-9 ATS when playing on Monday night
Washington: 26-47 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

[StarDust Bum]

Falcons look for an upset

November 21, 2013


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-2) at ATLANTA FALCONS (2-8)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New Orleans -10 & 53.5
Opening Line & Total: Saints -8 & 53.5

The Falcons try to end a long losing skid when they host the division rival Saints on Thursday night.

New Orleans remained perfect at home with a 23-20 win over the 49ers Sunday, but is just 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) on the road this year. But Atlanta has been drilled in four straight games, losing by an average of 18.5 PPG. The Falcons were three yards away from a Week 1 road win over the Saints, but QB Matt Ryan was intercepted in the end zone in the game’s final minute of a 23-17 defeat.

Although QB Drew Brees is 12-3 with 4,635 passing yards and 31 TD in this series since arriving in New Orleans, he threw 5 INT in last year’s visit to Atlanta, resulting in a 23-13 loss. However, since the start of 2011, the Saints are 20-7 ATS (74%) in dome games, and 15-3 ATS (83%) versus poor passing defenses (235+ passing YPG allowed). Although the Falcons are 0-6 ATS as an underdog this year, they are 11-3 ATS (79%) when coming off a double-digit loss under head coach Mike Smith.

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, as New Orleans could be without RB Darren Sproles (ankle) and S Kenny Vaccaro (concussion), while Atlanta star TE Tony Gonzalez (toe) and backup RB Jason Snelling (legal problems) are also listed as questionable.

Saints QB Drew Brees is in the midst of another tremendous season, ranking second in the NFL (behind only Peyton Manning) in passing yards (3,369) and passing touchdowns (26), while throwing just 8 INT on his 406 pass attempts. He has done this by targeting four receivers at least 55 times -- TE Jimmy Graham (846 rec. yards, 10 TD), WR Marques Colston (529 rec. yards, 2 TD) and RBs Darren Sproles (463 rec. yards, 2 TD) and Pierre Thomas (349 rec. yards, 3 TD). All four of these players caught at least four passes in the Week 1 win over Atlanta, with Graham and Colston scoring touchdowns.

The ground game has shown signs of life in the past two weeks with 334 rushing yards, but it still ranks 23rd in the NFL in both rushing yards (97.2 YPG) and yards per carry (3.9 YPC). RB Mark Ingram has rushed for 189 yards on 7.9 YPC since his return from a toe injury, but he was held to 11 yards on nine carries in the Week 1 meeting with the Falcons.

The Saints defense set an NFL record for futility last year with 440 total YPG allowed, but they have cut that number down to 305 YPG this season, which ranks 4th in the NFL. They also rank third in the league in passing defense (191.4 YPG), but they continue to have a hard time stopping the run, allowing an NFL-worst 4.9 yards per carry this season. New Orleans gives up just 18.3 PPG (5th in league) due in large part to an NFL-low 26:15 time of possession. This has occurred not only due to a great offense, but also because the defense is preventing long drives with a 33% conversion rate defense on third down (3rd in NFL). The Saints need to force more mistakes though, tallying 0-to-1 takeaways in five of their past six games.

Falcons QB Matt Ryan has seen a huge drop in numbers this year, throwing for 7.1 YPA, 18 TD and 12 INT compared to 7.7 YPA, 32 TD and 14 INT from last season. His decline can be attributed largely to an injured receiving corps with WR Julio Jones (1,198 rec. yards, 10 TD last year) out for the season and WR Roddy White (1,351 rec. yards, 7 TD in 2012) compiling just 185 yards and 1 TD this year due to various ailments. But their injuries have allowed WR Harry Douglas (749 rec. yards) to emerge as Ryan's top target, especially over the past five games where Douglas has caught 35 passes for 535 yards and two scores. This includes a game-high 93 receiving yards in the Week 1 loss to New Orleans.

Douglas' emergence has also helped make up for a dreadful ground game that has the second-fewest rushing yards in the league (73.1 YPG). There was one bright spot to the rushing attack in last week's 41-28 loss to Tampa Bay though. RB Antone Smith, who entered the game with two career carries, gained 88 yards on just two rushes against the Bucs with a 50-yard touchdown and then a 38-yard gain, both in the fourth quarter.

As disappointing as the offense has been, it's really the Atlanta defense that is mostly to blame for this lost season. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most points (29.2 PPG) and fourth-most yards per play (6.1) in the NFL, ranking 30th against the run (132.7 YPG) and 22nd against the pass (249.2 YPG). They have the 2nd-worst defense on third downs (46% conversions) and have also been gashed in the red zone (64% efficiency, 28th in NFL). Forcing mistakes has also been a weak spot for this team, as Atlanta has amassed a mere four takeaways in the past seven games combined.