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**StarDust Bum** · 11-03-2013, 01:31 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 9

November 2, 2013

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

The Saints are 14-0 ATS since November 24, 2008 after a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Raiders are 0-11 ATS since October 07, 2001 at home when facing a team that has averaged less than 28:12 of possession time season-to-date.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

Tony Romo is 0-10 OU since December 2007 after a game where he threw no more than 40 passes for less than 260 yards, and completed no more than 59% of them.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Colts are 0-11 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since December 2002 after a game where they scored less than 45 points and their opponent committed at least 11 penalties.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

Teams that scored at least 27 points while gaining less than 255 yards last game are 77-52-6 OU. Active on Minnesota and New England.

NFL O/U TREND:

The Rams are 11-0 OU since September 25, 2005 at home after a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

We often hear how the NFL is a quarterback driven league and in an effort to protect one of its biggest assets, they have rewritten the book on player safety with strict rules about how, when and where a QB can be hit. Occasionally the walls still come crumbling down and for teams like Miami (4.4), Oakland (4.3) and Pittsburgh (3.9), the league’s offensive leaders in QB sacks per game, it happens more often than they would like to admit.

One trend we are seeing this season for teams after watching their QB get trampled is the ability for play callers to make adjustments. With the right conditions it’s produced a highly profitable situation for bettors and so far in Week 9 the Dolphins have already padded this profile’s stats with their 22-20 win over Cincinnati.

Home teams playing immediately off a loss where their QB was sacked four times (or more) have a 15-6 straight-up record, covering the spread at a rate of 80-percent (16-4-1 ATS).

The favorites are 8-1-1 ATS on an average line of -5.5 while home dogs have cashed eight of 11 tickets, two of the losses thanks to Jacksonville and one of those being a neutral site game in London. Buffalo (+3) and the Jets (+6) are “live” this Sunday with tough matchups against undefeated Kansas City and NFC super power New Orleans. Consider this angle as one part of your handicapping process and good luck.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-03-2013, 01:33 AM

Week 9 Tip Sheet

November 2, 2013

Falcons at Panthers (-7 ½, 45) - 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS
Carolina: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS

Last week's results: The Falcons put together probably their worst performance of the season in a 27-13 defeat at Arizona as short road underdogs. Matt Ryan tossed four interceptions, while the Falcons rushed for just 27 yards. The Panthers won their third game in a row by dominating Tampa Bay, 31-13, the third consecutive contest breaking the 30-point plateau.

Previous meeting result: The two teams split both meetings last season, but Carolina managed to cover each time. The Falcons held off the Panthers at the Georgia Dome last September, 30-28 as seven-point favorites, while Carolina took care of Atlanta in Charlotte two months later, 30-20. Both matchups finished 'over' the total.

Betting notes: Last week's 'under' in Arizona snapped a five-game 'over' run by Atlanta, even though four of those 'overs' came at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have put together a dreadful 1-4 SU/ATS record in their last five road divisional contests, while the Panthers are 6-3 ATS the previous nine games inside the NFC South.

Saints (-6 ½, 46) at Jets - 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS
New York: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS

Last week's results: The Saints came off the bye week with a resounding home victory over the Bills, 35-17 as 10 ½-point favorites. New Orleans has won and covered all four games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season, while winning its last three home contests by double-digits. The Jets continued their roller-coaster season by getting destroyed at Cincinnati, 49-9 as six-point away 'dogs. New York has scored one touchdown in less in five of eight games this season.

Previous meeting result: New Orleans cruised past New York, 24-10 in 2009 at the Superdome to end the Jets' early 3-0 start to the season. For as little as history means pertaining to this series, the Saints have won five of the last six matchups with the Jets since 1989, including a 3-0 mark in New Jersey.

Betting notes: The Saints have owned AFC opponents at the Superdome since 2007, by putting together a 7-2 SU/ATS record. The Jets have struggled as a road underdog since the start of last season, compiling a 5-9 ATS mark.

Chargers at Redskins (PK, 51) - 1:00 PM EST

San Diego: 4-3 SU, 5-1-1 ATS
Washington: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS

Last week's results: The Redskins' defense was torched in the fourth quarter of a 45-21 defeat at Denver by allowing 31 points in the final 15 minutes. Washington has allowed a whooping 117 points in the last three games, while failing to cover for the fifth time in seven contests. The Chargers head east for the fourth time this season as San Diego is coming off the bye week. San Diego basically had the bye two weeks ago as the Lightning Bolts destroyed the Jaguars, 24-6, while limiting their last two opponents to a total of 15 points.

Previous meeting result: The Chargers knocked off the Redskins in the season finale of the 2009 season, 23-20 as three-point home favorites. In San Diego's last visit to the Nation's Capital in 2005, the Bolts rallied from a 17-7 deficit to stun the Redskins in overtime, 23-17.

Betting notes: The two victories over NFC opponents for the Chargers this season improved San Diego's mark to 2-7 SU the last nine interconference contests. The Redskins have played high-scoring games against the AFC recently, posting a 6-2 mark to the 'over' since 2011.

Ravens (-2 ½, 41) at Browns - 4:25 PM EST

Baltimore: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Cleveland: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS

Last week's results: Both these teams look to end losing streaks on Sunday, as the Ravens have lost their last two games by a combined five points to the Packers and Steelers. Cleveland has gone backwards following a three-game winning streak by dropping its last three contests, while scoring 17 points or less in each defeat.

Previous meeting result: The Ravens have owned the Browns with 10 straight wins in the series dating back to 2008. The last six matchups have finished 'under' the total, including a season sweep by Baltimore in 2012, while limiting Cleveland to just 21 points in the two victories.

Betting notes: Since hitting the 'over' in the opener at Denver, the Ravens have cashed the 'under' in five of the past six games. Under John Harbaugh, Baltimore owns a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record off the bye. The Browns have cashed in the home underdog role in five of their last eight opportunities since the start of last season.

Steelers at Patriots (-6, 44) - 4:25 PM EST

Pittsburgh: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS
New England: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS

Last week's results: The Steelers fell behind early as short road favorites in last Sunday's 21-18 defeat at Oakland. Pittsburgh has scored 19 points or less in each of the past three games, while falling behind 21-3 to the Raiders before putting up 15 points in the fourth quarter. The Patriots overcame a 14-point halftime deficit to top the Dolphins, 27-17 to cash as 6 ½-point favorites. New England has now alternated wins and losses in each of the last five weeks.

Previous meeting result: Pittsburgh knocked off New England as three-point home underdogs in 2011 with a 25-17 triumph. Ben Roethlisberger torched the Patriots' defense for 365 yards and two touchdowns, while the Patriots were limited to 213 yards on offense. Since 2003, the Pats and Steelers have split a pair of meetings at Gillette Stadium.

Betting notes: The Patriots have covered seven of their last 10 as a home favorite, including a 3-1 ATS mark this season at Gillette Stadium. The Steelers have seen success since 2008 on the road against AFC East opponents by winning each of the last five.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:20 AM

Inside the Stats

November 6, 2013

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings…

Puttin’ on the Stats

With Halloween now in the rear view mirror, it’s on to the best time of the college football season – the month of November!

That’s because the combination of stats and angles combine to bring us the best winning edges of the year.

Our “Puttin’ On The Stats” theory is a dandy, and best of all it’s simple and it wins.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date.

Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, here’s this year’s list of ‘Play On’ (as underdog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2013 season:

Play On Dogs

*Arizona State
*Baylor
*BYU
Cincinnati
East Carolina
*Florida State
Georgia
Louisville
*Michigan State
Northern Illinois
Ohio State
Oklahoma
*Oregon
Virginia Tech
*Western Kentucky

Play Against Favorites

Central Michigan
Connecticut
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
Idaho
Kansas
*Miami-Ohio
New Mexico State
Purdue
Southern Miss
Temple
UMass
USF
UTEP

Important: An *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% -or- 0% ITS this season. Once an underdog loses the stats a second time, or a favorite wins the stats for the second time during the season, they immediately come off the list.

There you have it. Now pass the gravy and let the November feast begin.

Show Me The Money

It’s all about the money when it comes to betting the games.

Heading into this week’s action here is a list of the top money-makers and money-breakers and their ATS records in College Football (versus FBS foes) and the NFL this season:

College Best Dogs: South Alabama (4-0), Auburn (3-0), Houston (3-0), Georgia State (5-1), and Temple (5-1).

College Worst Dogs: UTEP (0-6), Eastern Michigan (1-7), Arkansas (1-5) and Southern Miss (1-5).

College Best Favorites: Wisconsin (5-0), Buffalo (4-0), Minnesota (3-0), Oregon (6-1), Baylor (5-1) and North Texas (5-1).

College Worst Favorites: Troy (0-4), Georgia (1-6-1), Fresno State (1-5-1) and Tulsa (1-5).

NFL Best Dogs: Dallas (4-0) and Indianapolis (3-0).

NFL Worst Dogs: Atlanta (0-4), Pittsburgh (0-3) and Jacksonville (1-7).

NFL Best Favorites: San Francisco (6-1).

NFL Worst Favorites: Houston (0-3).

Vinegar And Oil

While they gone the way of 8-track players and typewriters of late, our ‘leaking oil’ theory (playing against favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games) finds the following teams going out as creaky chalk this week:

NCAAFB: Boston College, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico

NFL: Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.

These plays now stand at 13-16 ATS overall this season, including 9-11 in CFB and 4-5 in the NFL.

Over Powering

There have been 72 ‘OVERS’, 58 ‘UNDERS’ and 2 TIES this season in the NFL.

On the heels of another commanding 4-0 performance last week, non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) have been solid gold. These games have gone 31-11 OVER (73%).

This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be:

Oakland at NY Giants
St. Louis at Indianapolis
Houston at Arizona
Miami at Tampa Bay

Stat Of The Week

Alabama has outscored opponents, 151-0, in the first half of its last six games.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:23 AM

Tech Trends - Week 10

November 6, 2013

Sunday, Nov. 10 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Jags not within single digits of anyone yet this season and 1-7 vs. spread. Although Jax has covered 4 of last 5 vs. Titans. Tennessee also last SU Jags victim (24-19 LY). Titans, based on Jag woes.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers Pack 3-0 S1 and vs. line at Lambeau TY, now 15-5 vs. line at home reg. season since 2011, 19-6 last 25 as host. Eagles 3-5 vs. line TY, also "over" 11-4 last 15 since mid 2012. Birds 4-1 vs. line away this season. "Over" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and Lambeau trends.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers Home teams are 7-2 vs. line in Bills games this season. Steel "under" 16-4 last 20 reg.-season games at Heinz Field. Slight to "under," based on Steelers' recent home "totals" marks.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants Oakland "under" 6-2 TY and 12-3 last 15 since mid 2012. G-Men have now covered three in a row TY. Raiders 4-6 as road dog for Dennis Allen. "Under" and Giants, based on "totals" and recent team trends.

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts Rams only 1-3 as road dog TY after 7-1 mark in role LY. Indy 8-4 vs. line last 12 at home. Colts, base don recent trends.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons Pete Carroll 3-2 vs. line away TY, 8-2 last 10 away from home. Seahawks 13-6 vs. points last 19 on board. Falcs 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Seattle "over" 12-5 last 17 reg.-season games, Falcs "over" six straight at Georgia Dome. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Baltimore has won 4 of last 5 SU in series, including three straight at M&T Bank Stadium. Cincy 1-4-1 last six vs. line as visitor. Ravens 3-0 vs. line as host TY. Ravens, based on team trends.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Lions have now covered last three in series, and six of last seven vs. Bears. Bears "over" 8-2 last ten since late 2012, Lions "over" 5-3 TY, 37-20-1 since last 2009. "Over" and Lions, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Nov. 10 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers Cam has won and covered 5 of last 6 TY, also "over" last four. But Niners have covered last five TY, and Harbaugh "over" 12-3 last 15 since late 2012. "Over" and 49ers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals Texans 1-7 vs. line TY, 1-9 last ten reg.-season games. Kubiak "under" 7-3 last 10 as reg.-season visitor. Cards 3-1 vs. line at home for Arians. Cards and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers Mike McCoy vs. former employer. Looks like jack Del Rio will be interim HC for Denver while John Fox recuperates. Broncs have won last two in SD. Denver "over" 8-0 TY, now "over" 44-18-1 since late in 2009 season. "Over" also 4-1 last five in series. "Over" and slight to Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.
Sunday, Nov. 10 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints Dallas 7-2 vs. line TY and 4-0 as dog but Saints have now won and covered last 13 at Superdome with Sean Payton on sidelines. Saints also "over" 13-8 last 21 as host. Saints and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Monday, Nov. 11 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Bucs still winless SU this season and 2-6 vs. line, now 3-10-1 vs. spread last 14 since late in 2012 season. Also "under" 8-4 last 12. Dolphins 0-1 as road chalk for Philbin, have not covered in role since 2010 at Buffalo. Dolphins and slight to "under," based on Bucs trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:24 AM

Sunday's Top Action

November 8, 2013

DENVER BRONCOS (7-1) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -7 & 59
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -7 & 58

The Broncos are well-rested coming off a bye week, but will not have head coach John Fox when they visit the Chargers on Sunday.

Fox is recovering from heart surgery and will be replaced by defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. San Diego lost 30-24 in overtime at Washington last week, but is 3-0 ATS at home this year. This game features the AFC’s top two quarterbacks in Denver’s Peyton Manning (2,919 pass yards, 29 TD, 6 INT) and Chargers QB Philip Rivers (2,473 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT). Manning threw for 579 yards, 6 TD and 2 INT in last year’s sweep of the Chargers, while Rivers struggled with just 499 yards, 4 TD and 6 INT. However, Rivers won't have to worry about Denver's top CB Champ Bailey, who is out with a foot injury. The only other significant injury in this game is Broncos TE Julius Thomas, who left the last game with a sprained ankle, but is expected to be ready for Sunday. Denver has been a great bet coming off a bye, going 14-1 ATS when playing with 2+ weeks of rest since 1992, but San Diego has a huge trend in its favor too, as any team after five straight games of forcing one or less turnovers facing an opponent after a game where they committed 3+ turnovers are a robust 43-15 ATS (74%) since 1983.

The Broncos' offense leads the NFL in most major categories, including scoring (42.9 PPG), total offense (466.4 YPG), yards per play (6.4), passing offense (358.5 YPG), third down conversions (50.5%) and red zone efficiency (78.4%). They have been able to do this with a hurry-up attack that has been on the field for only 30:34 (14th in NFL). The only negative of this offense is a ground game averaging a mere 3.7 yards per carry (25th in league) and 107.8 YPG (17th in league). RB Knowshon Moreno has rushed for less than 50 yards in three straight games, but has contributed heavily as a receiver during this span with 160 yards through the air, having been targeted a whopping 22 times by QB Peyton Manning. The veteran signal caller has thrown for at least 295 yards and two touchdowns in all eight games this season, and has done so with a near equal distribution of targets to his top three wide receivers with 71 to Wes Welker (555 rec. yards, 9 TD), 70 to Eric Decker (669 rec. yards, 3 TD) and 68 to Demaryius Thomas (685 rec. yards, 6 TD). TE Julius Thomas has also had a breakout season with 451 receiving yards and 8 TD and despite spraining his ankle in the last game, it appears that he will play on Sunday. When it comes to stopping the run, the Denver defense has been outstanding, allowing a mere 81.5 yards per game (3rd in NFL) on 3.4 yards per carry (2nd in league). But defending the pass has been a different story with the Broncos surrendering 299.1 YPG (3rd-most in NFL). They did produce four interceptions against the Redskins in the last game, which was quite surprising considering they had only three picks in the previous five contests combined. But the secondary will have to step up because the Chargers also have an excellent passing game.

San Diego has thrown for 300 YPG (4th in NFL) on a hefty 8.4 yards per attempt (3rd in league) as QB Philip Rivers has already eclipsed 400 passing yards three times this season. Despite being without his two starting wide receivers (Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd) for the majority of the season, Rivers has been able to complete more than 25 passes to five different players. TE Antonio Gates leads the team with 550 receiving yards, RB Danny Woodhead has a team-high 49 catches and WR Eddie Royal leads the club with seven touchdowns. But recently, it's been rookie WR Keenan Allen who has emerged as the top target, pulling in 31 catches for 497 yards and 3 TD over the past five games. The Chargers' run game has been inconsistent over the past four weeks with rushing totals of 32, 147, 158 and 69 yards. Top RB Ryan Mathews had back-to-back 100-yard games in two straight wins, but carried the football just seven times in last week's OT loss. But even though the Broncos' run defense has been pretty strong in recent years, Mathews has always had big performances against them with 503 rushing yards (4.6 YPC) and 3 TD in five career meetings. While the offense is in good shape, the San Diego defense has been pretty terrible all year in both defending the pass (8.5 YPA, 2nd-worst in NFL) and the run (4.9 YPC, 3rd-worst in league). The Chargers have also allowed opponents to convert 42.3% of third downs (27th in NFL), but surrender only 21.8 PPG (T-11th in league) because they are on the field for just 28:20 (6th-fewest in NFL). This defense has to start making plays though, with 0-to-1 takeaways in all eight games this season. The pass rush has also been weak with 0-to-2 sacks in five of eight contests, and if Peyton Manning doesn't see a lot of pressure, he will pick this team apart.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (6-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Francisco -6.5 (-115) & 43.5
Opening Line & Total: 49ers -7 (-105) & 42.5

The NFL’s two hottest teams go toe-to-toe Sunday when the Panthers visit the 49ers on Sunday afternoon.

Carolina has won four in a row (SU and ATS) by an average score of 33 to 12, while San Francisco has won five straight (SU and ATS) by an average score of 35 to 12. Both teams have scored at least 30 points in all the wins and both have at least an even turnover margin for each contest during their win streaks as well. Sunday will be the first time this series features either mobile QB Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick, but the Panthers have owned the Niners since entering the NFL, going 14-3 SU (10-7 ATS), including 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at Candlestick Park. While both clubs are relatively free of injuries, the well-rested Niners are in better shape coming off a bye week and with the probable additions of both WR Mario Manningham (knee) and DE/LB Aldon Smith (19.5 sacks last year) returning from a suspension. Both of these clubs have extremely favorable betting trends, as Carolina is 8-0 ATS after allowing 99 rushing yards or less in two straight games since the start of 2012, while San Francisco is 14-5 ATS (74%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past three years.

Panthers QB Cam Newton has played outstanding football during his team's win surge, completing 72.3% of his passes for 916 yards (8.2 YPA), 7 TD and 2 INT, while rushing for 128 yards and three more touchdowns. Carolina's ground game has been productive all season (130.1 YPG, 8th in NFL) and is even stronger with RB Jonathan Stewart back healthy. He made his season debut last week and picked up 43 yards on nine carries (4.8 YPC) plus another 22 yards on three receptions. He and top RB DeAngelo Williams (519 rush yards, 4.1 YPC, 1 TD) should continue to share carries for this team. But there's no big change in the passing game with Newton spreading the wealth to his top three wide receivers (Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn) and top TE Greg Olsen. Each of these four pass catchers has gained more than 350 yards through the air with at least two touchdown grabs. Carolina's excellent ground game, lack of turnovers and outstanding third-down conversion rate (47%, 3rd in NFL) has led to an NFC-best 34:01 time of possession. Not being on the field very long has really helped this Carolina defense which ranks second in the NFL in scoring (13.3 PPG allowed) and third in total defense (299.9 YPG). The Panthers have also been very stingy in the red zone (39% efficiency, 3rd in NFL) because they stop the run so effectively with 79.1 rushing YPG allowed (2nd in league). Carolina has also shown the ability to make plays with at least one takeaway in all eight contests, including 3+ forced turnovers in four of the past six games, including four last week.

The Niners offense has really clicked since its 27-7 loss to the Colts in Week 3, scoring 35, 34, 32, 31 and 42 points. QB Colin Kaepernick has been the catalyst of the offensive surge in these five wins both with his arm (8.6 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) and his legs (165 rush yards, 6.4 YPC, 3 TD). Speaking of rushing, long-time Niners RB Frank Gore has also run extremely well for his team, picking up 476 yards on 4.5 YPC and 6 TD during the win streak. San Francisco now leads the NFL in rushing (153 YPG), which has set up the passing game nicely (7.6 net YPA, 6th in league). The addition of WR Mario Manningham should help free up top targets WR Anquan Boldin (551 rec. yards, 2 TD) and TE Vernon Davis (518 rec. yards, 7 TD) even more. The return of pass-rushing monster DE/LB Aldon Smith makes this already monstrous defense (4.99 yards per play, 6th in NFL) more ferocious. Smith's constant quarterback pressures will keep the passing yards (220.5 YPG allowed, 8th in NFL) to a minimum. San Francisco's defense has really struggled in the red zone (64%, 5th-worst in NFL), but it has given up just 18.1 PPG (4th-fewest in league) due in large part to a stingy 33% third-down efficiency rate (3rd in NFL). The Niners have also done a nice job forcing turnovers with 13 takeaways during the five-game win surge.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -1 & 47
Opening Line & Total: Packers -2.5 & 47

After a record-setting performance on the road last week, Eagles QB Nick Foles will try to stay hot on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field against a Packers team that will be missing star QB Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers broke his collarbone in Monday night’s home loss to Chicago and will miss the next 4-to-6 weeks of action. Backup Seneca Wallace will get the start in his place. The Eagles are in much better shape under center with Foles matching an NFL record last week with seven touchdown passes, while throwing just six incomplete passes, in a 49-20 rout in Oakland. With Wallace struggling in relief of Rodgers last week, Green Bay may try to keep the ball on the ground with Eddie Lacy and James Starks after the team rushed for 199 yards on 6.9 YPC versus the Bears. Despite missing Rodgers, the Packers should have a key player returning this week in pass-rushing OLB Clay Matthews who hasn't played since Week 5 because of a broken thumb. Since 2003, these clubs have met eight times, with the final margin of victory being a touchdown or less in six of these contests. Philadelphia won the first five games during this span, but Green Bay has prevailed three straight times (SU and ATS) with wins by 3, 7 and 5 points. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS versus incredible offenses (29+ PPG) in the second half of the season since 1992, but the Packers are 12-2 ATS after and ATS loss in the past three seasons.

Eagles QB Nick Foles has been unbelievable on the road this season, completing 63-of-88 passes (72%) for 948 yards (10.8 YPA), 13 TD and 0 INT. He has led the team to three straight victories away from home (SU and ATS) where they have scored 36, 31 and 49 points. WR DeSean Jackson has been the top target with 50 catches for 823 yards and 6 TD, but it was No. 2 WR Riley Cooper who exploded last week for 139 yards on five catches (27.8 avg.), including three touchdown grabs. While Philly is now averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt (6th in NFL), the ground game has been even better this season with 147.9 rushing YPG (4th in league) on 5.0 YPC (3rd in NFL). But RB LeSean McCoy (777 rush yards, 3rd in NFL) has been struggling to run the football in the past three weeks with just 49.0 rushing YPG on a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. The faced-past Eagles offense ranks last in the league in time of possession (25:06), but has still racked up 413.2 total YPG (4th in NFL). However, this has not really helped the defense that has surrendered 419.3 total YPG, 307.8 passing YPG and 24.3 first downs per game, which all rank last in the NFL. Philly has helped itself out with 10 forced turnovers in the past five games, but it needs a more consistent pass rush, generating a mere 10 sacks over the past six contests. Look for the Eagles to install some more blitz packages to try to rattle Seneca Wallace on Sunday.

Although QB Seneca Wallace is 33 years old, he has logged just 21 NFL starts, going 6-15. Since 2009, he is 1-8 as a starter with a mere 5.98 yards per pass attempt, 9 TD and 7 INT. Even with the Bears stacking the box in Monday's game, Wallace managed only 114 yards on 11-of-19 passing with 0 TD and 1 INT. This is unacceptable considering how talented his wide receivers are, led by Jordy Nelson (716 rec. yards, 7 TD), and the now-healthy James Jones who returned to action last week after missing two games with an injured knee. Jones logged just 28 snaps against the Bears, but he'll likely see a lot more playing time on Sunday. But there's no need to force the issue through the air with rookie RB Eddie Lacy playing so well. Lacy has rushed for more than 80 yards in each of his past five games, totaling 545 yards on 4.6 YPC with three touchdowns. RB James Starks gives the team a nice change-of-pace option, as he's averaged a hefty 6.0 YPC on his 47 attempts this season with touchdown runs in each of the past two weeks. A bigger commitment to the run should also help the club improve its poor red-zone efficiency (48.4%), which ranks tied for 23rd in the NFL. The Packers are even worse in red zone defense with a 68.0% rate, which ties them with the Browns for last in the league. But the unit will certainly benefit from the return of OLB Clay Matthews (45.5 sacks in 62 career games), as the Packers have recorded just seven sacks over the past three games, and have intercepted only three passes all season. In the past five contests, Green Bay has totaled two takeaways, and if it doesn't force more Eagles mistakes on Sunday, it could be a long afternoon.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:26 AM

Total Talk - Week 10

November 9, 2013

Week 9 Recap

The ‘over’ produced a 7-6 record in Week 9 and those results were helped with the last five games played on Sunday. All four of the late-afternoon games went ‘over’ the number, which included New England’s 55-31 win over Pittsburgh. The 55 points were the most scored in an NFL game by a team this season and also the most ever against the Steelers. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 71-59-2.

Line Moves

The professionals took advantage of some soft openers last week, which resulted in a 3-2 record but some bettors could’ve gone 1-4 if they got in late. The Atlanta-Carolina matchup opened at 41 ½ and closed at 47, which set up a great middle opportunity. The Falcons won 34-10, which set up winners on both sides. The Dallas-Minnesota affair was similar with the opener sent out at 47. The number closed 51 and the Cowboys earned a 27-23 victory, which also set up the possibility of two-way winners. On the season, the line moves have gone 27-18-1 (60%) this season. Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

Oakland at N.Y. Giants: Line opened 42 and jumped to 43 ½
Cincinnati at Baltimore: Line opened 42 and jumped to 44 ½
Houston at Arizona: Line opened 40 and jumped to 42

The Philadelphia-Green Bay and Detroit-Chicago matchups also received some early movement, which was due to quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers ‘out’ for the Packers and Jay Cutler in for the Bears.

Non-Conference Overs

I’m still waiting for this trend to crash and burn but that hasn’t been the case. There have been 42 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 31-11 (73%) in those games, which includes a 7-0 record the past two weeks. On Sunday, we have four games that fit this year’s hottest total trend.

Oakland at N.Y. Giants – Prior to last week’s blowout loss and ‘over’ ticket to the Eagles, the Raiders had watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 in their previous seven games.

St. Louis at Indianapolis – Rams have watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 overall and the Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 at home this season.

Houston at Arizona – Playing the ‘over’ in games played in the desert was once a good lean but the Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 this season.

Miami at Tampa Bay – The Bucs watched their first four games go ‘under’ the number. After its bye week in early October, the Tampa Bay defense has given up 31, 31, 31 and 27 points in their last four games, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-0.

Divisional Battles

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 in the last four encounters between this pair but the two ‘over’ winners came in Tennessee, where the Titans put up 38 and 23 points.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series. In the last two meetings played in Baltimore, the Ravens put up 31 and 44 points.

Denver at San Diego: Last season, the Broncos swept the Chargers with 35-24 and 30-23 victories. The ‘over’ cashed in both games with totals of 47 ½ and 48. This week’s number is hovering between 57 and 58 points. Denver has watched the ‘over’ go 8-0 this season while the Chargers have watched their totals go 4-4. A lot of bettors are expecting a shootout here but be aware that San Diego’s defense has been a very tough out at home. In the last two games against the Cowboys and Colts, the Chargers defensive unit gave up 23 combined points to those talented squads.

Under the Lights

Even though the ‘under’ went 2-1 in the three primetime games last week and it could’ve been 3-0 to the ‘over’ or 3-0 to the ‘under.’ This past Thursday, the Vikings beat the Redskins 34-27 and the ‘over’ (49) cashed in the third quarter. If it wasn’t for the infamous overtime ‘under’ in the Miami-Cincinnati two weeks ago, the ‘over’ would be on a 7-0 run in games played on Thursday. On the season, the ‘over’ is 18-13 in primetime games.

Dallas at New Orleans: Despite the total being inflated (54), it’s hard to hard lean ‘under’ when you look at the matchups and recent history. The Saints beat the Cowboys 34-31 last season and 30-27 in 2010, both victories occurring in Arlington. This week the game is in the Superdome where New Orleans has scored 28 or more points in eight of the last 10 games played at this venue. What may be surprising is that Dallas owns the better scoring offense (28.6 PPG) this season between the pair, however most of that damage has come at home. Outside of a 30-point performance at Detroit, the ‘Boys offense have been held in check (16, 14, 17) in their three other road trips. This season, the SNF matchup has watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 and that includes the last three weeks.

Miami at Tampa Bay: Everybody is well aware of the mess in Miami since it’s been well documented but I personally take emotion out of handicapping. It’s a no-win situation and I can offer up plenty of examples of how it works or doesn’t work. For instance, many believed the Vikings would rally around Adrian Peterson after his son died in September while others thought the tragedy would hurt the team. Just toss it out the window and look at the numbers. As mentioned above, the Bucs have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight games and the defense, which was thought to be solid, has been anything but lately. Miami isn’t great offensively or defensively but both units have shown the ability to make plays. Based on their last seven games, the Dolphins have seen at least 40-plus combined points scored in all of them. The total for Monday’s matchup is 41. Make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 the last four weeks on MNF and three of those outcomes were never in doubt.

Fearless Predictions

Decent week (3-1, +190) and could’ve been better if the Redskins could run out the clock against the Chargers. That’s life in the NFL and our fictitious bankroll, which is still down ($290) after eight weeks.
As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: St. Louis-Indianapolis 43 ½

Best Under: Carolina-San Francisco 43 ½

Best Team Total: Under 24 ½ San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 34 ½ St. Louis-Indianapolis
Under 66 ½ Denver-San Diego
Over 33 Houston-Arizona

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:28 AM

Week 10 Tips

November 7, 2013

Eagles at Packers - 1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
Green Bay: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS

Last week's results: The Packers were dealt a major blow as Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken left collarbone in Monday's 27-20 home loss to the Bears. Rodgers left the game in the first quarter and is expected to miss at least four weeks, which will hurt Green Bay in this tight NFC North race. The Eagles are trying to string together some wins and started with a bang in last Sunday's 49-20 rout of the Raiders as a one-point underdog. Nick Foles tossed seven touchdown passes, as Philadelphia rebounded after scoring just 10 points in its previous two games combined.

Previous meeting results: The Packers eliminated the Eagles from the playoffs in the 2010 Wild Card round, 21-16 as one-point road underdogs. Philadelphia is visiting Lambeau Field for just the second time since 2004, as six of the last seven meetings have finished 'under' the total.

Betting notes: The last time the Packers failed to cover in successive home games came back in 2008, as Green Bay has won 10 consecutive games at Lambeau Field off a loss. The Eagles have won four of five road contests this season, while owning a modest 2-1 ATS record as an underdog.

Seahawks at Falcons - 1:00 PM EST

Seattle: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS
Atlanta: 2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS

Last week's results: The Seahawks rallied from a 21-0 deficit to stun the Buccaneers, 24-21, but Seattle didn't cover as heavy home favorites. Seattle has now won 12 straight home contests, while maintaining the top record in the NFC. The Falcons stumbled again on the road, falling at Carolina, 34-10 as 10-point underdogs. Atlanta has been outscored, 61-23 in its last two losses, while losing five of its past six overall.

Previous meeting results: The Falcons held off the Seahawks in last season's epic NFC Divisional Playoff contest, 30-28. Atlanta built a 20-0 halftime lead, but Seattle came all the way back to grab a 28-27 lead with 30 seconds remaining. The Falcons kicked a 49-yard field goal for the win, but failed to cover as three-point favorites.

Betting notes: The Seahawks own a solid 4-1 record away from home this season, while covering three times in the favorite role. The Falcons are 2-2 SU/ATS at the Georgia Dome, while winning and covering 11 straight home games coming off a loss.

Lions at Bears - 1:00 PM EST

Detroit: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Chicago: 5-3, 2-5-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Bears picked up a key divisional road victory on Monday by knocking off the Packers, 27-20 as 10-point road underdogs. Josh McCown threw two touchdown passes in place of the injured Jay Cutler, while Matt Forte rushed for 125 yards and a score. The Lions are fresh off the bye, as Detroit is still in good spirits after stealing a victory from the Cowboys two weeks ago, 31-30. Detroit failed to cover as three-point favorites, as the Lions have alternated wins and losses in their last five games.

Previous meeting results: The Lions jumped out to a 30-13 halftime edge, as Detroit held off Chicago, 40-32 to cash as three-point home favorites in Week 4. Chicago turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions from Cutler. The Bears have won five straight home meetings with the Lions, but Detroit has covered in three of the last five visits to Soldier Field.

Betting notes: The Lions have cashed the 'over' in four of the last five games overall, but Detroit is 3-1 to the 'under' on the highway this season. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Bears are just 2-7 ATS against NFC North opponents.

Panthers at 49ers - 4:05 PM EST

Carolina: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
San Francisco: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS

Last week's results: The Panthers stayed hot by winning their fourth straight game, a 34-10 rout of the rival Falcons. Carolina has scored at least 30 points in each of its last four victories, while limiting its last four opponents to 15 points or fewer. The 49ers have won five consecutive games, while coming off the bye after trouncing the Jaguars in London two weeks ago, 42-10.

Previous meeting results: These teams haven't met since 2010, when the Panthers slipped past the Niners, 23-20 as short home underdogs. Carolina hasn't visited Candlestick Park since 2004, as the Panthers knocked off San Francisco, 37-27.

Betting notes: The Panthers have hit the 'over' in three of four road games this season, while posting a 6-0 ATS record as a road underdog since the start of 2012. San Francisco has covered five straight games, while going 'over' the total four times during this hot streak. The Niners have won seven of their last eight games at Candlestick since tying the Rams last November, as San Francisco has cashed six times in this stretch at home.

Broncos at Chargers - 4:25 PM EST

Denver: 7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
San Diego: 4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS

Last week's results: Denver is fresh off the bye week, while dropping 31 fourth quarter points in its previous game against Washington, a 45-21 triumph as 11-point favorites. The Broncos snapped a three-game ATS slide in the win over the Redskins, as Peyton Manning tossed four touchdowns and three interceptions. The Chargers also played the Redskins in their last game, but San Diego fell in overtime to Washington, 30-24. The Bolts were making their third trip to the East Coast already this season, while allowing their most points since Week 2 at Philadelphia.

Previous meeting results: Last season, the Broncos swept the season series from the Chargers, which included a remarkable comeback in San Diego. On a Monday night in October 2012, Denver erased a 24-0 halftime deficit to stun San Diego with 35 unanswered points in the second half of a 35-24 triumph. The Chargers have lost three of the last four home meetings with the Broncos.

Betting notes: The Broncos have cashed the 'over' in all eight contests this season, while scoring at least 33 points in each contest. The Chargers haven't lost consecutive games this season, putting together a 3-0 SU/ATS record off a defeat.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:29 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Jaguars (0-8) @ Titans (4-4)—First road game in four weeks for hideous Jags, who lost star WR Blackmon (drugs) for season, as their year from hell continues; Jax is 1-7 vs spread this year, with only cover as 27-point dogs in Denver- their road losses are by 10-28-14-16 points. 19-9 loss at Oakland in Week 2 is their only loss this year by less than 14 points, as they make run at being worst NFL team of all-time. Tennessee snapped 3-game skid last week in St Louis, running ball for 198 yards against host playing on short week with backup QB; Titans lost last two home games, after winning first two by 3-25 points- they’re 1-0-1 as home faves, but are -3 in turnovers in last four games, after being +9 in first four. Tennessee is 8-5 in last 13 series games, with three of last four decided by 6 or less points. Jags lost four of last five visits here, losing by 7-17-6-18 points. NFL-wide, home favorites are 17-9 vs spread in divisional games; double digit favorites are 8-10 vs spread this season. Three of last four Jax games, four of last five Titan games went over the total.

Eagles (4-5) @ Packers (5-3)—On one ill-fated play at end of its first drive Monday nite, Packers went from one of NFC’s favorites to an underdog to make playoffs; with Rodgers out at least three weeks (hairline fracture/clavicle), Pack has no decent backup (expected to sign Flynn Tuesday). One Vegas pundit said spread would drop 8 points with Rodgers out, one of biggest drops with any injury in NFL. Green Bay becomes a running team while Eagles are feast/famine offense; in their last five games, Philly scored 36-31-3-7-49 points, and they didn’t even try to score in 4th quarter at Oakland. Pack allowed 27+ points in all three of its losses; they’re 4-0 when allowing 20 or less points. Preparing a career backup to start and getting a new backup for him in place on short work week is tough duty. Eagle defense has played better of late; inflated numbers last week were partially because of big lead they had. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread, 2-6-1 at home; NFC East road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last five Packer games stayed under total; six of nine Eagle games went over.

Bills (3-6) @ Steelers (2-6)—Would expect stronger effort from Pitt after CBS’ Phil Simms inferred they quit in 4th quarter at Foxboro (they did). Buffalo is expected to get #1 QB Manuel back here; they were 2-2 in his starts, losing 27-20 at Jets in his only road start (outgained 513-328)- remember, he is a rookie. Steelers are 0-5 when they allow more than 16 points, a number Bills had hit every week until 23-13 home loss to unbeaten Chiefs last week, when they held KC without offensive TD but gave up two scores Chiefs’ defense. Buffalo outgained KC 470-210 but lost by 10 in first NFL start for undrafted rookie QB Tuel, Bills’ #3 QB. After being -11 in turnovers in first four games, Pitt was even in last four; Bills are -6 in last two games. Steelers won eight of last nine games in this series; Bills lost nine of last 11 visits here, losing 26-3 in ’07 in only visit since ’96. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-6 vs spread, 3-2 at home. AFC East road underdogs are 2-6 vs spread. Six of last eight Buffalo games went over total; three of last four Steeler games stayed under.

Raiders (3-5) @ Giants (2-6)—First road game in five weeks for Oakland squad that was torched by Eagles’ Foles last week (7 TD passes in less than three Q’s); if Foles did that much damage vs Raider defense, what will Manning do off bye week? Giants won last five post-bye games (3-2 vs spread); they won last two games before their bye, holding Freeman/Foles to one offensive TDs on 23 drives after starting season 0-6. Raiders are 0-3 away from home, losing by 4-16-17 points, but those three opponents are combined 22-3 this year. Giants gave up 77 points in losing first two home games (Denver/Philly) before shutting down Vikings 23-7; they won last two series meetings 30-21/44-7; Raiders are 3-2 playing Giants in Swamp. Oakland QB Pryor tweaked his knee last week, isn’t thought to be serious injury, but if it were, major dropoff to backup McGloin. AFC West teams are 16-9 vs spread outside their division, 6-2 as underdogs, 3-1 on road. NFC East favorites are 6-6, 4-4 at home. Under is 5-2-1 in Oakland games this season, 4-2 in Giants’ last six games.

Rams (3-6) @ Colts (6-2)—St Louis has seldom gone in tank in first 25 games under Fisher, but with career backup Clemens at QB, they’re not capable of beating good teams. Rams lost last three games by 15-5-7 points; they’re 1-3 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 7-24-15 points, with win at struggling Houston. Colts are 3-1 at home, scoring 73 points in last two home tilts, upset wins over Seattle/Denver- underdogs covered all four of their home games (0-2 as HF). Indy is in second game off its bye; Rams haven’t had theirs yet- Colts looked lost in passing game in first half in Houston last week (Luck was 6-20 at one point), as star WR Wayne missed his first game since 2001, but they rallied late and escaped Texas with a win. Fisher was 3-13 in last 16 games vs Colts when he was coaching the Titans. NFC West teams are 13-9 vs spread outside the division, 5-5 as underdogs, 3-4 on road. AFC South non-divisional home teams are 6-4, 3-2 when favored. Double digit dogs are 10-8 vs spread, league-wide. Five of last six St Louis games, three of last four Indy games went over the total.

Seahawks (8-1) @ Falcons (2-6)—Seattle barely escaped Rams/Bucs last two weeks, falling behind Tampa 21-0 at home last week; those are only two teams Atlanta has beaten this year (combined 3-14 record). Seahawks are 4-1 on road, with two wins by 5 and another by three points- they lost last four games with Atlanta, losing 30-28 in LY’s playoffs, which seem like long time ago now. Average total in last four series games is 63.3. Seahawks are 4-3 in Atlanta, but lost last two visits here by combined total of five points. Falcons lost five of last six games- they allowed 27+ points in last five losses and are -7 in turnovers last five games, throwing seven picks in last two. OL is banged up, so running ball is an issue (49 ypg in last five games) and with star WR Jones gone for year, Atlanta scored only two TDs on its last 22 drives, with nine 3/outs. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-4 vs spread, 3-1 on road. NFC South underdogs are 4-6, 1-2 at home. Six of last seven Falcon games, five of last seven Seattle games went over the total. This is Seattle’s fifth dome game out of six road games.

Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (3-5)—Cincy is -2/-2/-3 in turnovers in three losses, 6-0 in other games, four of which they were even in turnovers, so unless they give game away, teams haven’t been beating them. Clubs coming off Thursday night game are 12-4 vs spread in their next game, with 10 days’ prep; teams that lost the Thursday night game are 7-1 vs spread in their next game. Bengals had 4-game win streak snapped when they gave up safety in OT at Miami, just third team ever to lose that way. Baltimore lost to Browns last week for first time in six years; they’ve lost last three games, scoring 17 ppg (5 TDs on 32 drives)won four of last five series games; Bengals lost last three visits here, by 6-7-31 points. Cincy was held to 5.2 yards/pass attempt in Miami, after averaging 10+ yards in each of previous two games. In their last three games, Ravens ran ball 69 times for 184 yards (2.7/carry). NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-6 vs spread. Five of last seven Baltimore games stayed under total; three of last four Bengal games went over.

Lions (5-3) @ Bears (5-3)— Cutler has been cleared to come back for this game after missing 1.5 games; Bears are on short week after upsetting Packers on road Monday night. Rodgers’ injury makes this game a real battle for top spot in NFC Central, since Pack figures to fade in his absence. Lions (-3) raced out to 30-13 lead, held Bears off 40-32 back in Week 4, in game with seven turnovers (Det +1) where Detroit scored a defensive TD and had two other TD drives of 2-22 yards, just Lions’ second win in last 11 series games- should they win this game and sweep season series, they would basically have 2-game lead over Chicago in division race. Detroit lost its last five visits here, losing by 4-24-5-24-6 points. Chicago is 3-1 at home, winning by 3-1-6 points; underdogs are 3-0-1 vs spread in their home games. Bears ran ball for 311 yards in last two games, stayed afloat with backup QB McCown playing- they’ve scored 24+ points in seven of eight games. Lions’ last two games were decided by total of four points; they’re 2-3 in last five post-bye games.

Panthers (5-3) @ 49ers (6-2)—Two hot teams collide here; Carolina won/covered last four games behind defense that’s allowed only one first half TD this year- they’ve outscored opponents 96-33 in first half and covered two of three as a dog, with only non-cover 12-7 home loss to Seattle in Week 1. 49ers are 2-7 vs spread, 2-6-1 SU in last nine post-bye games, but they’ve won/covered last five games, winning by average score of 35-12, with 13 takeaways (+8) in those five games. Niners covered three of four home games, losing 27-7 to Colts in Week 3, which is also last game they lost anywhere. Panthers have 19 takeaways (+8) in last six games; they’ve won last three series games but teams haven’t played since Harbaugh became coach of Niners- Panthers won five of last seven visits here. SF allowed 172 rushing yards to Seattle, in its only game vs QB who runs well this year. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 4-6 vs spread, 3-4 on road; NFC West favorites are 8-4, 5-3 at home. Last four Carolina games and four of last five 49er games went over the total.

Texans (2-6) @ Cardinals (4-4)—Tough week for Houston, dealing with its coach having mini-stroke at halftime Sunday night; they’ve now lost six games in row and are playing rookie QB without its QB guru/play caller coach- thought they mismanaged clock at end of Indy game, punting down 3 with 2:05 left when they had only had two timeouts left, so game management also an issue with an interim coach. Texans scored 20 ppg (4 TDs/22 drives, only three 3/outs) in Keenum’s first two starts, after scoring 11.3 ppg in four games before that; Keenum has made more of effort to find star Johnson, while Schaub leaned on his TEs a lot. Arizona lost five of last six post-bye games; they’re 5-11-2 in last 18 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year. Redbirds are 3-1 SU at home, losing only on a Thursday night to Seattle. Home side won both series meetings; Texans lost 28-21 in only visit here in ’09. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-4 vs spread. Five of last seven Arizona games, three of four Houston road games stayed under the total.

Broncos (7-1) @ Chargers (4-4)—Denver’s first game without Coach Fox, who had heart valve surgery Tuesday; think this situation is less disruptive than Houston’s, where Kubiak is play caller and mentor for rookie QB. Manning still runs Denver offense, so that remains unchanged; #18 won/covered his last seven post-bye games, scoring average of 34.6 ppg. Broncos won last three series games by 3-11-7 points; they’ve won three of last four visits to Qualcomm, winning by 11-3-11 points. San Diego lost OT game in Maryland last week, when Woodhead missed crossing goal line for winning TD by inches in last minute of regulation; Chargers are 2-1 at home, losing only by FG to Texans in Week 1, when people thought Houston was good- they’ve beaten Dallas/Colts at home. Denver scored 41.7 ppg in winning two of three on road, losing last road trip at Indy, winning 51-48 at Dallas, 41-23 at Giants before that. Broncos scored 38 points in second half of their last game, rallying from 21-7 down to beat Redskins. All eight Denver games went over the total.

Cowboys (5-4) @ Saints (6-2)—New Orleans is 4-0 as home favorite this year, winning by average score of 32-15; Payton covered his last 12 regular season home games- Saints are 17-7 in game following their last 24 losses. Saints turned ball over twice in all three of their losses (-3), only three times (+9) in their five wins. Rob Ryan coached Dallas defense LY, so he has to have at least a little advantage here, vs Cowboy squad that is 1-3 on road, with losses by 1-1-9 points, with a 17-3 win at Philly (KO’d Foles after he had only 80 PY in over a half). Home team lost last five games in this series, with Saints winning seven of last eight (30-27/34-31 last two)- this is just second trip to Superdome for Dallas in last decade. Cowboys have 11 takeaways (+7) in last four games; tey ran ball only nine times last week, dropped back to pass 54 times- they won’t win shootout in this dome. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-6, 4-4 on road; NFC South home favorites are 5-2. Four of last five Saint games, four of last six Dallas games went over the total.

Dolphins (4-4) @ Buccaneers (0-8)—Not much to choose from here; winless Tampa led 21-0 last week in Seattle, still found way to lose- their four home losses are by 2-3-11-18 points. Bucs were outscored 80-26 in second half of last six games. Miami lost starting LT/LG after hazing debacle, Dolphin coaches are under fire, losing four of last five games after 3-0 start; they’ve been outscored 84-36 in second half of last five games. Fish ran ball for 156-157 yards in last two games, but now LG Incognito (suspended) is also out, so whole squad has had week full of distractions. Teams coming off Thursday night games are 12-4 vs spread in next game, 5-3 if they won the Thursday game. Home teams won four of last five series games; Dolphins lost three of four visits here, with win back in ’88. In eight games, covering 16 drives for both sides, Bucs have been outscored 27-3 on first drive of each half, so Tampa coaches are being outcoached. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 19-14 vs spread. Last four Buccaneer games and five of last seven Miami games went over the total.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:30 AM

NFL mid-week line moves: Sharps like Rams on road in Indy

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants – Open: -5.5, Move: -7.5

The Raiders were early 5.5-point road underdogs in New York but after their one-sided squash versus Philadelphia, bettors have driven this line past the key number of the touchdown.

“A couple hours after we opened, we got wiseguy play on Giants -5.5, so we moved to current number of -7.5,” says Perry. “Expect us to stay on this number until kickoff with 63 percent of the money on the Raiders.”

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons – Open: +7, Move: +6

Atlanta isn’t the contender it was last season but Seattle’s unimpressive outings have action on the home underdog, moving this line off a TD and as low as Falcons +6 at some markets.

“Sunday night, we took a sharp play on Falcons +7, so moved to the present number of +6.5,” says Perry. “About 69 percent of money is on Seattle.”

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears – Open: +2.5, Move: +1

Is Jay Cutler in or out? The early money was banking on a return from the Bears No. 1 QB, and it looks like Cutler will be under center after being cleared to play Sunday.

“Earlier today got a sharp play on Chicago +2, so moved to +1.5,” says Perry. “It appears the Bears are in good hands no matter who starts at quarterback. About 75 percent of the cash is on the Lions.”

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts – Open: +12, Move: +9.5

The Rams bring their feared pass rush to Indianapolis and it appears wiseguys like Jeff Fisher’s squad on the road in Week 10, bumping this spread as many as two points past the key number of 10 with 75 percent of the action on St. Louis.

“St. Louis is a very popular play with sharps,” says Perry. “On Monday, they went from +12 to +10 and on Tuesday made another move in their favor to the current number.”

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers – Open: 56, Move: 59

Sharps haven’t stepped into the fray for this AFC West shootout, but the public is pushing this total as high as three points with 83 percent of wagers on the Over.

“A heavy majority is playing the Over, so on Wednesday we moved from 58 to 59,” says Perry.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:31 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 10:

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5, 44)

Rams’ pass rush vs. Colts’ scrambled offense

Somewhere in the Hoosier State, Andrew Luck is staring longingly at a wallet-worn picture of injured WR Reggie Wayne. Luck looked lost without his favorite target against Houston last week. His timing was terrible, he overlooked open receivers and tried to squeeze the ball into coverage, something he could get away with when Wayne was running routes.

The biggest problem coming out of this is that Luck is slower getting the ball out without his safety net on the field. The Colts offensive line gave up four sacks to Houston, which has team owner Jim Irsay spitting hot fire on Twitter again, bashing his team’s protection which has allowed the third-most QB hits this season. The offensive line better take those tweets to heart, because here comes the Rams’ rush that has 29 sacks on the year. St. Louis’ defensive line can singlehandedly win games – that’s how good it is.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 41.5)

Texans’ Kubiak-less offense vs. Cardinals’ chaotic defense

The Texans got a scare last week when head coach Gary Kubiak suffered a stroke at halftime of their loss to Indianapolis. Kubiak is home recovering in Week 10, leaving the Texans in the hands of interim coach Wade Phillips. Kubiak is the mastermind behind this offense and has also been the mentor for second-year QB Case Keenum, spending the team’s entire bye week with him. Offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will instead be calling the plays against an Arizona defense that thrives on chaos.

The Cardinals have one of the fastest front sevens in the NFL and talented ball hawks behind them in the secondary. Arizona is a blitz-happy stop unit and loves to bring the pressure, smelling blood in the water with Keenum on deck. Without Kubiak’s keen eye, Dennison could fail to make the necessary adjustments and provided the comfort level Keenum needs to survive this road test. Arizona has 23 sacks and 12 interceptions this season.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7, 58)

Broncos’ third-down offense vs. Chargers’ third-down defense

Getting Peyton Manning off the field is hard work. The Broncos have kept the chains moving on more than half of their third-down tries and average a league-high 6.4 third-down conversions per game. Those numbers have helped Denver top the NFL in first downs per contest which in turn has sparked an offense scoring almost 0.6 points per play. It’s no surprise the Broncos are 8-0 over/under on the year.

San Diego isn’t that shabby on third downs either, ranked second to Denver with a 47.92 percent success rate on third down. Stopping opponents on third down, however, is a completely different ballgame for the Bolts. The Chargers are allowing opponents to convert on 42.27 percent of their third downs – putting them in the same league as Jacksonville and Minnesota. San Diego watched Washington convert 12 third downs in last week’s overtime loss, including a crucial third-and-8 in the added frame.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7, 54)

Cowboys’ small secondary vs. Saints’ towering TE Jimmy Graham

Jimmy Graham would be a mismatch for most defenses, unless Shaquille O’Neal was playing safety. But the Saints' talented tight end is looking like fantasy fire heading into this Sunday night’s showdown with Dallas. Graham has four touchdown catches in the past two games – and he’s playing on one foot. On the year, the 6-foot-7 behemoth has 49 receptions for 746 yards and 10 TD catches – tops in the NFL.

The Cowboys secondary, which tops out at 6-foot-2, has been bullied by big receivers all season. They gave up 66 yards and a TD to Giants TE Brandon Myers, 56 yards and a score to KC hefty WR Dwayne Bowe, a score to Rams’ 6-foot-3 WR Austin Pettis, 136 yards and a TD to San Diego TE Antonio Gates, 122 yards and two TDs vs. Denver TE Julius Thomas, a TD to Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph, and a season’s worth of yardage, six points and their first-born sons to Calvin Johnson. Expect a few football to get dunk over the upright in the Big Easy Sunday night.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:31 AM

NFL

Monday, November 11

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Sunday's NFL Week 10 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)

The Cincinnati Bengals will have had nine full days to stew over a difficult loss when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday for a big AFC North matchup. A safety in overtime was the difference in Cincinnati's 22-20 loss at Miami on Halloween night, a setback that also saw the Bengals lose another starter on defense in standout tackle Geno Atkins to an ACL tear. The Ravens can close within a game in the loss column with a victory on Sunday.

However, the defending Super Bowl champs have been sinking since a 3-2 start, dropping three in a row, including a 24-18 decision at Cleveland last Sunday. It marked the fifth time this season that Baltimore - which ranked 10th in the league in scoring last year - has been held to 20 points or fewer. This contest begins a string in which the Ravens play four of five games at home, where they have won 18 of their last 21 games dating back to 2010.

LINE: The Bengals have held steady as a one-point dog, with the total currently 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 13 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-3.5) + Baltimore (+3.0) - home field (-3.0) = Bengals -3.5

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on fieldturf.
* Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Under is 10-1 in Baltimore's last 11 games after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous outing.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (PICK, 52.5)

Detroit stars Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson put on quite a display against the Dallas Cowboys last week, with the former passing for 488 yards and the latter accounting for a team-record 329 of them. Johnson fell seven yards shy of the NFL's single-game record set on Nov. 26, 1989, by Flipper Anderson. Stafford reached the 15,000-yard plateau faster than any quarterback in league history, doing so in his 53rd career game.

The Bears received some surprising news Thursday as quarterback Jay Cutler declared himself fit to play, improving what has already been a potent and versatile offense. Running back Matt Forte has scored nine touchdowns - six rushing - in 11 games against the Lions. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall enters Sunday's contest with a streak of five straight home games with a touchdown.

LINE: The Bears opened as a 2.5-point dog, but the line has since been bet up to a pick. The total is 52.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 5 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.5) - Chicago (-2.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -4

TRENDS:

* Lions are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 Week 10 games.
* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1, 47)

Eagles quarterback Foles, who threw for an NFL record-tying seven touchdowns last week, has 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 777 rushing yards, but he has run for 60 yards or fewer in four of his last five games. The Eagles’ defense has recovered from a rough start to the season, as Philadelphia has yielded 21 points or fewer in five straight games.

A collarbone injury has shelved Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers for at least four weeks. Fortunately, the Packers finally have a running game they can depend on. Rookie bruiser Eddie Lacy has rushed for 545 yards since Oct. 1 – the highest total in the NFL - including a career-high 150 yards last week. Green Bay expects to have Clay Matthews back on Sunday after the All-Pro linebacker missed the last four games with a thumb injury.

LINE: Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point fave, but the line has moved to -1. The total has slipped from 48 to 47.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NW at 9 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+1.5) + Green Bay (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -5.5

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
* Packers are 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings.

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 44)

The Colts posted their second consecutive victory in stirring fashion, overcoming an 18-point third-quarter deficit to post a 27-24 triumph over Houston last week. T.Y. Hilton made his presence known with veteran wideout Reggie Wayne sidelined with a torn ACL by reeling in a career-best seven catches for 121 yards and franchise-tying three receiving touchdowns against the Texans.

Indianapolis leads the AFC South by two games over Tennessee, which handed St. Louis its third straight loss last week and faces the Colts on Thursday. With quarterback Sam Bradford's season also felled by a torn ACL, the Rams have shifted their focus toward Zac Stacy. The rookie followed up his 134-yard performance in a 14-9 loss to Seattle on Oct. 28 by rushing for his first two career touchdowns to highlight his 27-carry, 127-yard effort versus the Titans.

LINE: Indy opened -10.5 and is now -10. The total opened at 43 and is up to 44.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+6.0) + Indianapolis (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -13

TRENDS:

* Rams are 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
* Colts are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-3 in St. Louis' last 10 games following an SU loss.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+4, 45)

Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch is excelling after racking up a season-high 125 yards against Tampa Bay to move up to second in the NFL with 726 rushing yards. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of the past five games and is also doing damage with his feet (375 rushing yards). Cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas are tied for the NFL lead with four interceptions.

Standout receiver Roddy White (hamstring, ankle) could be back after a three-game absence to help alleviate Ryan’s troubles. White has just 14 receptions for 129 yards in an injury-prone campaign after six consecutive seasons of more than 80 catches and 1,200 yards. Atlanta could use some help from a defense that has allowed at least 23 points in each game.

LINE: Seattle opened as a 5.5-point fave and is now -4. The total opened 44 and is up to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-6.0) + Atlanta (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
* Falcons are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous outing.
* Under is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 games in November.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7, 44)

Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor leads the team in rushing with 485 yards and is 45 yards shy of passing Rich Gannon for the club record for a quarterback. Where Pryor struggles is in the passing game, with four interceptions and no touchdowns in the past two contests, and he could have his running attempts limited due to a knee sprain.

One of the reasons the New York defense was able to be so effective the last two games is because Eli Manning and the offense weren’t putting it into bad positions with turnovers. The former Super Bowl MVP threw 15 interceptions in the first six weeks but was not picked off in either of the two victories while focusing on shorter passing attempts.

LINE: New York has held firm as a 9.5-point fave, with the total up half a point to 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) - New York (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
* Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in Week 10.
* The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-13, 41)

Jacksonville comes out of its bye week with little room for optimism. The offense averages a pitiful 10.8 points per game, and what small glimmer of success the Jaguars have enjoyed was wiped out when receiver Justin Blackmon was suspended indefinitely for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The defense hasn't been much better and ranks last in the league against the run, allowing 161.8 yards per game.

Tennessee struggled through a three-game losing streak against tough competition in October, but two of those defeats came with quarterback Jake Locker on the shelf. Locker has been solid when healthy, completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,232 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. The Titans have been strong against the pass but have a tough time stopping the run, so grabbing an early lead will be key.
LINE: Tennessee opened -13. The total has remained at 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 6 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+10.0) - Tennessee (0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -13

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
* Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC foes.
* Under is 10-2-1 in Jacksonville's last 13 games against the AFC South.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5)

Buffalo is in last place in the AFC East after falling to Kansas City 23-13 last week. The Bills held a surprising 10-3 lead at the half but surrendered a pair of back-breaking defensive scores after the break. Rookie Jeff Tuel was picked off in the end zone and Sean Smith returned the interception 100 yards to tie the game and the Bills lost a contest that they had totally dominated statistically.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is on pace to throw for the most yards of his career but that's a testament to a team that has been playing from behind all season. The once-proud Steeler defense allowed New England's Tom Brady to break out of a major slump to throw for 432 yards and four touchdowns last week. Pittsburgh has also been gouged on the ground all season long allowing 131.3 yards a game which ranks 31st in the league.

LINE: The Steelers opened -3.5 and are now -3. The total opened at 43 and is up to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 10 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - Pittsburgh (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -3

TRENDS:

* Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an SU loss.
* Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 10-2 in Pittsburgh's last 12 home games vs. teams with losing road records.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:32 AM

NFL

Monday, November 11

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Sunday's NFL Week 10 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 43)

Carolina's offense has flourished of late, topping 30 points in four straight games and five of the past six. Cam Newton has returned to the dynamic form he showed as a rookie, completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 1,801 yards and 13 TDs and rushing for 251 yards and four scores. The defense has provided a big assist, though, as the Panthers have forced at least one turnover in every game and have recorded three or more takeaways four times.

The defending NFC champions had a couple of early stumbles in ugly losses to Seattle and Indianapolis, but they've been nothing short of dominant while winning five straight. The 49ers rank last in the league in passing, but they've rolled up an NFL-best 153 yards per game on the ground and have limited their mistakes during the winning streak. The defense has been solid against the run and the pass and has forced 13 turnovers the past five games.
LINE: The 49ers opened -6.5 but are now-5.5. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-2.0) + San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -7.5

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* 49ers are 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 games on grass.
* Over is 12-3 in San Francisco's last 15 games.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 42)

Houston was enduring a disappointing season on the field before it began to worry about its head coach, and squandering a 24-6 lead with 4:25 left in the third quarter of last week's loss to Indianapolis represented a new low point. The Texans rank first in the NFL in passing defense, surrendering an average of 158 yards, but allowed three passing touchdowns in the final 15:05 to watch its lead evaporate.

Arizona went into its bye week on a high note with a 27-13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. The Cardinals were most effective against the Falcons in the secondary, intercepting Matt Ryan four times, and got a strong October from rookie safety Tyrann Mathieu, who was named the NFC’s defensive Rookie of the Month. Mathieu and Rashad Johnson combined for three picks from the free safety position against Atlanta.

LINE: The Cardinals are 3-point faves after opening -3.5. The total opened 43 and is up to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+3.5) - Arizona (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -4

TRENDS:

* Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
* Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 30-11 in Arizona's last 41 games after finishing with fewer than 150 passing yards in their previous outing.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7, 58)

The bye week did not provide a much-needed respite for the Denver Broncos, who lost their head coach for perhaps the rest of the season when John Fox underwent a surgical procedure to repair a heart valve. Quarterback Peyton Manning, who's often been likened to a coach on the field, has thrown for 2,919 yards and 29 touchdown passes so Denver is not expecting a dip in its offensive efficiency in Fox's absence.

Philip Rivers is experience a career revival in Mike McCoy's offense following a pair a pair of turnover-riddled seasons, throwing for 17 TDs against seven interceptions and posting a 106.5 passer rating - third best in the league. Ryan Mathews had back-to-back 100-yard games, but he was limited to 34 on seven carries at Washington and San Diego failed to score from the 1-yard line on three tries in the final seconds of regulation.

LINE: The Broncos opened as 7-point road faves. The total opened at 56 and is up to 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 4 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.0) - San Diego (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -4

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC West opponents.
* Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an SU loss.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:33 AM

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

The second half of the NFL season is in full swing and news of a few key players that could return from injury has odds on the move:

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: -3.5, Move: -2.5

News that EJ Manuel gets the start for the Bills had bettors backing Buffalo. But can the rook turn the Bills' season around? The AFC East cellar dwellers were 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS with Manuel under center this season.

"The 3.5 opener didn’t last long before being a juiced 3," Black tells Covers. "Pittsburgh struggles against the run, and with RB’s CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson coming at them, the Steelers' defense may struggle with the run again this week. Action so far is split down the middle."

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons - Open: +6, Move: +4.5

The Seahawks narrowly escaped their last two games with victories. They required a comeback to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and barely beat the St. Louis Rams. They have won four-straight games, but are 1-4 ATS in their last five.

"Atlanta WR Roddy White is upgraded to probable, and that has moved the line, but the line was already moving before that," confirms Black. "The running game has been one of the main pillars of Seattle's success, but injuries to the offensive line are causing concern for those looking to back them away from home at a desperate Falcons team. Action still likes the Seahawks at about a 2-to-1 clip ATS, but SU sees a little more on the Falcons."

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears - Open: +1, Move: Pick

Another player set to make a return is Bears QB Jay Cutler. News of such an upgrade had bettors backing the Bears, but injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball have them treading lightly.

"The line has bounced back and forth from small-fave Detroit to small-fave Chicago, but it should end up as a Pick or slight Bears fave," says Black. "Action likes the Bears at a 2-to-1 clip."

Black also confirms that bettors like the Over in this matchup. The total opened 52 and has been bet up to 52.5.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:33 AM

NFL betting: This week's top 5 key injuries

The quarterback position continues to be a merry-go-round for several teams heading into Week 10 of the NFL season.

The Buffalo Bills welcome back their electrifying rookie signal caller, while the Green Bay Packers face their first full game without their starting QB. Other teams face shortages at key positions - including the Seahawks, who are still waiting for their prized free-agent acquisition to make his Seattle debut.

Here are five key injuries entering a busy Sunday:

Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (out, hip)

The hype over Harvin possibly returning in Week 7 or 8 has given way to a more realistic assessment. After suffering a minor setback in his return from a major offseason hip injury, the 25-year-old still hasn't been added to the Seattle roster and isn't practicing with the team yet. As badly as Harvin might like to return for the Seahawks' Week 11 tilt with his old team, the Minnesota Vikings, it's likely the speedy wideout will remain on the sidelines beyond the team's Week 12 bye with an eye on returning the following week against New Orleans.

Seattle is installed as a 4-point favorite for Sunday's showdown with host Atlanta. The total is 45.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (out, collarbone)

The Packers' postseason hopes took a major hit after Rodgers suffered a fractured collarbone in Monday night's 27-20 loss to the Chicago Bears. The team has placed a 4-to-6-week timetable on Rodgers' return to the lineup, though historical precedent would suggest that Rodgers probably won't be back in four weeks' time. Veteran Seneca Wallace, who went 11-for-19 for 114 yards and an interception, will be under center - and judging by the nine-point swing in this week's line, bettors don't have much faith in his abilities.

The Packers are a one-point underdog vs. the visiting Philadelphia Eagles, with the total at 47.

Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (out, back)

Foster won't give up on returning this season despite reports he's dealing with a significant disc problem in his back that may require surgery. The fifth-year running back is considered week-to-week, but is reportedly seeking other medical opinions in an effort to be cleared to return as soon as possible. His absence leaves a major hole in Houston's already mediocre offense, with the underwhelming Ben Tate expected to see the bulk of the carries. Dennis Johnson, signed late last month, will back him up.

The Texans go into Arizona as a 3-point underdog against the Cardinals. The total is set at 42.

Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (questionable, hamstring)

Falcons fans will be ecstatic to know that White will finally return to the field in an attempt to salvage what has been his worst season to date. The 32-year-old has been dealing with a hamstring issue that has kept him out the last three games, but he reportedly looked spry in practice and has declared himself good to go. White will instantly boost a Falcons' passing game that has been decimated by the loss of Julio Jones (foot). White's presence gives Matt Ryan another reliable option in the passing game to complement Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas.

Atlanta is installed as a 4-point underdog against visiting Seattle, with the total at 45.

E.J. Manuel, QB, Buffalo Bills (probable, knee)

Manuel has exceeded even the most recent timetable; despite not being expected back until next week, the first-year QB looked good in practice and will get the start Sunday barring any setbacks. Manuel hasn't played since Week 5 after suffering a sprained LCL in a 37-24 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Bills have already used three different quarterbacks this season, so the return of Manuel not only gives them the best chance to win - it also means some much-needed stability for what has been a beleaguered pass offense.

Buffalo enters Sunday's game in Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog, with the total set at 43.5.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2013, 11:34 AM

NFL betting weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)
Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 15 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Pick, 53)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the low-40s. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (+1, 47)
Temperatures will be in the low-40s and wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7.5, 44)
Temperatures will be in the high-50s and wind will blow across the field at 15 mph.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-13, 41)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-50s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 6 mph.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5)
Wind will blow across the field at 16 mph and temperatures will be in the mid-40s.

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 43)
Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7, 58)
Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 6 mph. Temperatures will be in the high-60s.

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