The Bum's NFL November's POD'S Stats-News Etc. !

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday........

13) Panthers 31, Buccaneers 13 (Thursday)-- Carolina had 16-yard edge in field position, outrushed hapless Bucs 129-48. You could make an argument that the Buccaneers are in the tank, and I won't argue.

12) 49ers 42, Jaguars 10-- What should be the most exciting year of his life is turning into a nightmare for first-year Jags' coach Gus Bradley. He had to bury his dad this week (our condolences) and his job isn't going well either, as Jacksonville lost its first eight games, all by double figures.

11) Lions 31, Cowboys 30-- Stafford threw for 488 yards, 329 of which went to Calvin Johnson but Detroit was -4 in turnovers, so they needed an 80-yard drive in 0:50 to pull this exciting game out with 0:12 left. This was the second time in last 55 games an NFL team was -4 or worse in turnovers and won.

10) Giants 15, Eagles 7-- Vick felt his hamstring "pop" which could finish him for the year. This was the first time the Giants won without scoring a TD since a 9-6 win over Seattle on Sept. 22, 2002. Josh Brown kicked five FGs in what was a dreadful game.

9) Chiefs 23, Browns 17-- KC outrushed Browns 136-57, converted 10-19 on third down and are now 8-0 halfway thru their schedule. Campbell threw ball for 283 yards (7.6 ypa) in his first '13 start, but Browns were 3-12 on third down. Chiefs are now 5-13 in last 18 games as a home favorite.

8) Saints 35, Bills 17-- Buffalo turned ball over three times (-3), had 16-yard deficit in field position- this was first time this year Bills scored less than 20 points in a game. Brees completed 26-34 passes, was sharp off his bye.

7) Patriots 27, Dolphins 17-- Miami lost 4th game in a row after being up 17-3 at half; Fish were -3 in turnovers, lost despite holding Brady to only 116 yards passing and 2-10 on 3rd down conversions. Brady was just 12-22, only fifth time in eight games he completed more than half his passes.

6) Red Sox 4, Cardinals 2-- Last night's game ended on an obstruction call, this game ends on a pickoff at first when St Louis was down two runs. Jonny Gomes was the man for Boston, hitting a game-winning three-run homer. Red Sox used Lackey to to pitch 8th inning, his first relief stint since 2004.

5) Bengals 49, Jets 9-- Jet offense ran 65 plays Sunday; they were outscored 14-9 by Bengal defense on those 65 plays, with Cincy ran two INTs back for TDs. Dalton averaged 10.4 yards/pass attempts in this one-sided game.

4) Raiders 21, Steelers 18-- Pitt native Pryor ran 93 yards for TD on first play of the game, the longest run ever by a QB, as Oakland won its first post-bye game since 2002. Suisham missed two FGs under 40 yards and Steelers ran ball for only 35 yards-- hard to win that way.

3) Broncos 45, Redskins 21-- Washington led 21-7 with with 11:35 left in the third quarter, then the roof fell in-- Redskins threw picks on their last four possessions, while Denver gained 266 yards from that point on and scored a defensive TD against Washington's backup QB Cousins. This was a sloppy game, with nine turnovers-- seven INTs.

2) Cardinals 27, Falcons 13-- Atlanta ran ball for only 27 yards; in last two games, they've run ball 32 times for 45 yards- without Julio Jones, Ryan can't just throw it on every play and put enough points on board. Cardinals get to their bye 4-4, showing progress under first-year coach Arians.

1) Packers 44, Vikings 31-- RB Lacy gives Green Bay balance on offense that offsets all the injuries their WR/TE's have had. Both teams had a special teams TD in this game. Vikings need to decide on a starting QB.

[StarDust Bum]

Close Calls - Week 8

October 29, 2013


NFL games often go down to the wire, especially relative to the spread. Here are close calls from week 8 of the NFL season, recapping the spread-changing plays from the fourth quarters around the league. Each week there are several key plays late in games that can change the result or create a misleading final score, get the details in this weekly column.

Detroit Lions (-3) 31, Dallas Cowboys: While those on the underdog Cowboys still held on in the wild fourth quarter in Detroit, those that played the Cowboys on the money-line (+140) or those on the ‘under’ had a rude finish. Detroit had huge yardage in the game but turnovers were costly and Dallas led just 13-7 entering the fourth quarter. With a 50-yard touchdown pass Dallas took a 27-17 lead with less than seven minutes to go in the game but Detroit would climb within three with a touchdown run with just over three minutes to go, a score that pushed the total ‘over’ as there eventually would be 41 points scored in the fourth quarter. Dallas settled for a field goal playing conservatively to lead by six with a minute to go in the game but Matthew Stafford and the Lions rallied to score with the gutsy final play to steal the win in the final seconds.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) 23, Cleveland Browns 17: The Chiefs led 13-0 and 20-7 early in this game but the Browns climbed within 10 right before halftime and then scored five minutes into the third quarter to get within three. There was no scoring for nearly 25 minutes of game clock until the Chiefs added a field goal with 17 seconds left after minimally threatening to score at all in the second half.

New Orleans Saints (-10) 35, Buffalo Bills 17: This line was at -12 early in the week before falling late in the week and while the Saints were in control the Bills were within range of the spread most of the way. New Orleans led 28-10 entering the fourth quarter but the Bills punched in a touchdown to get within 11 early in the final frame. The Saints hit another big play after a Buffalo interception to go up 35-17 and while the Bills threatened to add points on the last two possessions, they could not deliver.

New England Patriots (-6½) 27, Miami Dolphins 17: The Dolphins led 17-3 at the half but New England took over in the third quarter, taking a 20-17 lead aided by a missed field goal and a fumble deep in Miami territory. The Patriots got past the spread early in the fourth but Miami appeared to be in position to climb back within at least seven, where the line was most of the week, however a short field goal attempt was blocked. Miami would get another possession but the threat ended with another turnover.

Denver Broncos (-11) 45, Washington Redskins 21: The Redskins led 21-7 well into the third quarter after an interception return touchdown, appearing en route to a major upset. Denver found the end zone to get within seven before the start of the fourth quarter and the Broncos tied the game just four seconds into the final quarter. It would snowball from there as the Broncos scored 24 more points in the fourth quarter, the last score came on a 75-yard interception return touchdown as the Redskins could not cover with a double-digit spread despite the double-digit second half lead.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 9

October 29, 2013

Thursday, Oct. 31 - NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins "Overs" are 6-2 in Thursday games this season. Miami "over" 5-2 this season, Cincy "over" 3-1 away. Miami no covers last 4 TY. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


Sunday, Nov. 3 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Panthers have won and covered last 3 TY, "over" in each of those. Carolina 8-3 last 11 on board since late LY, covered both vs. Atlanta LY but had dropped previous four vs. line in series. Cam 4-6 as chalk since LY (2-2 TY). "Over" and Panthers, based on team and "totals" trends.


Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys Cowboys 7-1 vs. line TY and 4-0 vs. spread as host, reversing recent spread woes in Arlington. Vikes "over" 7-2 last 9 reg. season since late 2012, also 8-5 as dog since LY (2-2 TY). Cowboys and slight to "over," based on recent trends.


New Orleans Saints at New York Jets Saints 17-7 last 24 vs. spread with Sean Payton as coach. Slight to Saints, based on Payton mark.


Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams Rams 3-5 vs. line TY, also 3-5 last 7 vs. spread as host, and "over" 6-2 in 2013. Tenn. 3-0 vs. spread away in 2013. Slight to Titans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Chiefs 8-0 SU and 5-3 vs. line. Andy Reid "under" 6-1-1 TY. Bills 4-0 vs. line as host for Marrone TY, also "over" 5-2. Slight to Bills, based on recent trends.


San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins Redskins 9-5 last 14 reg.-season on board. Bolts 5-1-1 vs. line TY also "under" 4 of last 5. Slight to Skins, based on extended trends.


Sunday, Nov. 3 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders Birds 5-2 vs. line last 7 away. Raiders "under" 6-1 TY, 12-2 last 14 since mid 2012. "Under," based on "totals" trends.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks Bucs no covers last 5 TY and 1-6 vs. line in 2013, also 2-11-1 last 14 on board since mid 2012. Bucs also "over" last 3 TY. Pete Carroll 11-3 vs. line last 14 as host. Seahawks "over" 12-7 last 19 since mid 2012. Seahawks and "over," based on team and "totals" trends .


Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Brownies have not beaten Ravens SU in 11 straight games (last win a 33-30 OT win in 2007). Balt. 8-3 SU in those games. But Ravens just 1-3 as visitor TY. Last six also "under" in series, and Brownies "under" 26-13 since 2011. "Under," based on "totals" trends.


Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Steel "under" 30-16 in reg. season since mid 2010, pats "over" 4141-20-1 since late 2009. Tomlin 0-2 as dog TY after 12-6 reg.-season mark in role since 2008. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


Sunday, Nov. 3 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Home team has won and covered last six meetings. But Texans 1-6 vs. line TY and Colts 4-1 vs. line last 5 TY. "Unders" last five in series, Colts "under" last six away. "Under" and slight to Colts, based on "totals" and recent trends.


Monday, Nov. 4 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Bears "over" 6-1 TY, "over" 8-1 last 9 since late 2012. Though "unders" 5-1 last 6 in series. Pack has covered last 4 and won SU last 5 in series. Bears haven't won SU at Lambeau since 2007. Bears 3-7-1 as road dog since 2011. Pack 22-7 last 29 vs. line as reg. season host. Packers and "over," based on series, team, and "totals" trends.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Books limp into Week 9

Sportsbooks in Nevada limp into Week 9 of the NFL schedule after taking a beating from the betting public this Sunday.

NFL Week 8 favorites are 8-4 ATS, heading into the Monday nighter, serving books their worst week of the 2013 football season, according to media sources in Las Vegas. On top of that, the Over hit in eight of those 12 games, another popular parlay pick of the public.

“The public is 7-1 and going for the throat (Monday) with residual parlays overflowing to Seattle,” Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook, told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

That rough weekend may or may not prompt sportsbooks to inflate the spreads for Week 9’s action. Favorites are 63-53-3 (54.31%) on the year, with home chalk boasting a profitable 42-31-3 record (57.53%) heading into Monday.

“I preach it every week, ‘Jack up those favorites’,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “I tell them every week, stick a number out there and if you start taking money on it, move it. Get to that number where you’re getting money on the underdog.”

“The thing is, a lot of places are too worried about getting middled. That rarely happens,” Korner says. “They’re afraid to put the favorites too high. They’re afraid of money on the underdog. I say get as much money on the underdog as you can before the weekend.”

Korner is pointing at next Monday’s game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, which his oddsmakers sent out with Green Bay as an 11-point favorite.

Korner believes the injury to Chicago QB Jay Cutler will push this line higher and says books only have to look to this Monday’s game between Seattle and St. Louis as an example. That spread has climbed as high as Rams +14 with QB Sam Bradford out for the season.

“It’s basically a good team versus a bad team,” Korner says of the Green Bay-Chicago matchup. “On Monday, books should jack up the favorite and the total. Be higher than the guy next to you.”

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (Pick, 51)

Robert Griffin III is the big “What if?” in this matchup. The Redskins QB left Sunday’s game against Denver with a knee injury in the fourth quarter but told the media his knee was fine and that the team held him out as a precaution.

Korner says his stable of oddsmakers brought spreads from Washington -2 to a pick’em to the table, settling on Redskins -2 with the expectation that RG3 would be in action versus San Diego.

“They’re playing much better and should be the favorite if he’s in,” Korner says of Griffin and the Redskins. “San Diego is a good team and we do respect them, but San Diego is in double trouble being in the AFC West, with Denver and Kansas City heading to the playoffs and everyone else - besides division leaders - fighting for one spot.”


Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+1, 45)

The Texans and Colts both come off a bye week, heading into this Sunday Night Football matchup. Korner says some of his oddsmakers had Houston as a favorite, however, they sent out Colts -1.

“I had to fight for this one,” he says. “I didn’t yield to the other guys.”

Korner is interested to see how Houston’s QB situation impacts the line. Matt Schaub is questionable to return from a leg injury in Week 9, leaving third-stringer Case Keenum as the starter. Keenum was impressive in his first NFL start versus Kansas City in Week 7, passing for 271 yards a score in a close loss to the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.

“He looked good and confident,” Korner says of Keenum. “As bad as Schaub was playing, there’s not much of a drop off here. Now, perception wise there is. We did this (spread) with Keenum playing. We’ll see if the line moves if Schaub comes back.”


Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7, 44)

A few years ago, this matchup would be a possible AFC Championship preview. But, with the Steelers stumbling and Tom Brady and the Patriots looking less like contenders every week, this AFC showdown has lost its luster.

Korner sent out this game at New England -7.5 but had some of his oddsmakers bring a spread as high as Patriots -9 to the table. Most books opened with the spread at a touchdown.

“This is now just an average game,” says Korner. “And where New England is playing better, it warrants more than a touchdown. It’s a boring game really. New England is the better team and I think (the spread) goes a little higher.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 31

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CINCINNATI (6 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 4) - 10/31/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 3

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ATLANTA (2 - 5) at CAROLINA (4 - 3) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 69-38 ATS (+27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
ATLANTA is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (1 - 6) at DALLAS (4 - 4) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (6 - 1) at NY JETS (4 - 4) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (3 - 4) at ST LOUIS (3 - 4) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 131-167 ATS (-52.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 131-167 ATS (-52.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 64-93 ATS (-38.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (8 - 0) at BUFFALO (3 - 5) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-33 ATS (-23.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 3) at WASHINGTON (2 - 5) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 5) at OAKLAND (3 - 4) - 11/3/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 37-67 ATS (-36.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 31-66 ATS (-41.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (0 - 7) at SEATTLE (6 - 1) - 11/3/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (3 - 4) at CLEVELAND (3 - 5) - 11/3/2013, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) - 11/3/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 155-117 ATS (+26.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 5) - 11/3/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 4

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CHICAGO (4 - 3) at GREEN BAY (5 - 2) - 11/4/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 31

8:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. MIAMI
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games


Sunday, November 3

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games ,
St. Louis is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games ,at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. NY JETS
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DALLAS
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Seattle
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

4:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. OAKLAND
Philadelphia is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games

4:25 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games

4:25 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NEW ENGLAND
Pittsburgh is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Pittsburgh is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
Indianapolis is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games when playing Indianapolis


Monday, November 4

8:40 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
Chicago is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Green Bay's last 11 games when playing Chicago

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Cincinnati at Miami
The Bengals look to follow up their 49-9 win over the Jets and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Cincinnati is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31

Game 303-304: Cincinnati at Miami (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 139.022; Miami 131.940
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2); Under


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3

Game 401-402: Atlanta at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 127.435; Carolina 139.723
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 12 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Carolina by 7 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-7 1/2); Over

Game 403-404: Minnesota at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.754; Dallas 139.883
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 20; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10); Over

Game 405-406: New Orleans at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.634; NY Jets 126.818
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 14; 43
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-5 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Tennessee at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 130.554; St. Louis 131.206
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 409-410: Kansas City at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 138.402; Buffalo 131.608
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 7; 36
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Under

Game 411-412: San Diego at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.227; Washington 129.361
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 55
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1; 51
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-1); Over

Game 413-414: Philadelphia at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 125.408; Oakland 131.191
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 6; 41
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 415-416: Tampa Bay at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 122.479; Seattle 141.973
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 19 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Seattle by 16 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-16 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Baltimore at Cleveland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.014; Cleveland 130.867
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 37
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-2 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Pittsburgh at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 129.189; New England 141.125
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Over

Game 421-422: Indianapolis at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.088; Houston 126.179
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 13; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4

Game 423-424: Chicago at Green Bay (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.477; Green Bay 142.590
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13; 46
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-10 1/2); Under

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 31

Cincinnati at Miami, 8:25 ET
Cincinnati: 9-1 ATS after a win by 10 or more points
Miami: 50-73 ATS in home games after the first month of the season


Sunday, November 3

Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 10-2 ATS away off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more
Carolina: 19-5 Under off a road win against a division rival

Minnesota at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 11-4 under as dogs of 7 or more points
Dallas: 7-1 ATS favorites of 7 or more points

New Orleans at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 10-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more
NY Jets: 1-10 ATS after playing over in their last game

Tennessee at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 40-21 ATS in non-conference games
St. Louis: 9-1 Over against AFC South division opponents

Kansas City at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 46-16 ATS off back-to-back home wins
Buffalo: 8-0 ATS off a road loss over

San Diego at Washington, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 10-2 ATS away against NFC East division opponents
Washington: 7-0 Over home vs. non-conference opponents

Philadelphia at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 OVER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
Oakland: 3-14 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog

Tampa Bay at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Tamap Bay: 14-4 Over after playing a game at home
Seattle: 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season

Baltimore at Cleveland, 4:25 ET
Baltimore: 26-13 Over after a loss by 3 or less points
Cleveland: 16-6 ATS after SU loss and ATS win

Pittsburgh at New England, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 19-9 Under after the first month of the season
New England: 10-2 ATS off a win against a division opponent

Indianapolis at Houston, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 12-4 ATS after the first month of the season
Houston: 13-3 OVER home after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games
NFL Betting Trends for Monday, November 4


Monday, November 4

Chicago at Green Bay, 8:40 ET
Chicago: 9-2 Over in road games
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's game

Bengals (6-2) @ Dolphins (3-4)—Miami lost 4th game in row last week in Foxboro, blowing 17-3 halftime lead; Fish lost last two home games by total of five points- their three home games this year were decided by total of nine points. Bengals won last four games (3-1 vs spread) but are 2-2 on road, with both wins by 27-24 score; three of their four road games were decided by exactly three points- they’re 0-2 as road favorites this year, after being 6-1-1 in 2011-12. Last three weeks, Cincy passing game averaged 7.4/10.4/10.4 yards/pass attempt- very explosive; they’ve scored eight TDs on last ten drives into red zone. This is Bengals first visit to Miami since ’07, second since ’91. AFC North non-divisional road favorites are 1-3 vs spread (11-9-1 in all games); AFC East teams are 7-2 in non-divisional home games, 4-1 as home dogs. Dolphins are 15-5 in this series, winning 11 of last 13 meetings- they won 17-13 at Cincinnati LY. Five of last six Miami games and last three Bengal games went over the total.


NFL

Thursday, October 31

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Thursday Night Football betting: Bengals at Dolphins
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Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+2.5, 43)

The Cincinnati Bengals are threatening to turn the AFC North into a runaway and will go for their fifth straight win when they visit the skidding Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. Cincinnati is coming off a superb performance, getting a career-high five touchdown passes from Andy Dalton in a 49-9 mauling of the New York Jets. "This is one of the first games we were able to finish because we jumped on them early," Bengals defensive end Carlos Dunlap said. "This was just a statement game."

Miami, meanwhile, is in the midst of a major spiral, dropping its fourth straight game after blowing a 14-point halftime lead in a 27-17 defeat at New England on Sunday. So instead of thrusting themselves back into the AFC East race, the Dolphins are approaching must-win territory if they hope to remain in postseason contention. "If we don’t get wins in these next (few) games, I feel like (the season) could slip away,” middle linebacker Dannell Ellerbe said.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: This game opened at a pick'em and has since moved to Bengals -2.5. The total has climbed from 41.5 to 43.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing east at 7 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-4.0) + Miami (+3.0) + Home Field (-3.0) = Miami +4.0

ABOUT THE BENGALS (6-2, 5-2-1 ATS): One of Cincinnati's concerns has been its reliance on the combination of Dalton to standout wide receiver A.J. Green, but fellow wideout Marvin Jones went a long way to allaying those worries by hauling in a franchise-record four scoring catches in Sunday's onslaught. Dalton has rebounded from a pair of middling efforts against Cleveland and New England to throw for 1,034 yards with 11 TDs and two interceptions in his last three. The Bengals are also getting it done on defense, tied for fifth in the league with 18.0 points allowed per game, but will likely be without linebacker Rey Maualuga (knee) for at least three weeks.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-4, 3-4 ATS): Losing streak aside, Miami has to deal with additional fallout from Sunday's defeat. Wide receiver Brandon Gibson suffered a season-ending knee injury in in the loss and, following the game, center Mike Pouncey was served with a grand jury subpoena in connection with the murder investigation of former Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez. The Dolphins churned out a season-high 156 yards rushing but still have not been able to protect quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has been sacked a league-worst 32 times.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The away team has won the last three meetings, including the Dolphins' 17-13 win in Week 5 last season.

2. Cincinnati had two interception returns for TDs versus the Jets, the first time that's happened for the Bengals since December 1984.

3. Miami has had losing streaks of at least four games in five of the last 10 seasons.



NFL

Thursday, October 31

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Tale of the Tape: Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
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The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the hottest teams in the NFL - and they'll look to keep the good times rolling at Raymond James Stadium Thursday.

Winners of four straight, the 6-2 Bengals visit Miami for what can only be described as a must-win game for the 3-4 Dolphins. Miami has dropped four straight games following a 3-0 start, and now has to contend with a Bengals team that lit up the New York Jets for 49 points in a one-sided victory last weekend.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Bengals struggled with consistency on the offensive end through the first five weeks but have hit their stride of late, averaging better than 34 points over their last three games. Andy Dalton has the passing game ranked seventh in the NFL in yards per game (269.9) thanks to a 325-yard performance in Sunday's 40-point rout of the Jets. The running game remains a work in progress, ranked 15th in total yardage but just tied for 26th in yards per attempt (3.6).

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill has improved in his second season, vaulting Miami into the middle of the pack in passing yards per game (222). He has thrown 11 touchdown passes against nine interceptions, and has thrown for a score in every game this season. The two-headed rush attack of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas combined for 136 yards in last week's loss to New England but Miami averages just 89 per game - good for 23rd in the league.

Edge: Cincinnati


Defense

Cincinnati is building off the defensive momentum it created last year, ranked 11th in the NFL in passing yards against (225.3) and eighth in opposition rushing yards (97.3). The Bengals were at their stingiest against the Jets, limiting them to 147 yards in the air. One area Cincinnati has struggled is on third-down defense; the Bengals have allowed opposing teams to convert nearly 42 percent of their chances, the seventh-worst mark in the NFL.

Miami's pass defense has been slightly below average when it comes to yards per game allowed (245, 20th) but has surrendered just nine touchdowns while racking up eight interceptions. The Dolphins are also near the middle of the pack on the pass rush, accumulating 20 sacks for 125 yards. The Miami run defense has been somewhat successful to date, surrendering seven touchdowns but limiting opponents to 109.9 yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry.

Edge: Cincinnati


Special Teams

Cincinnati has had a decent return game in 2013, ranked seventh in kick-return average (26.3) and 21st in punt-return yardage (7.1). The Bengals are allowing opponents to gain 23.2 yards per kickoff return - the 12th-best mark in the NFL - and 7.3 yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Mike Nugent, who settled for seven extra points in last week's drubbing, is just 10-for-13 in field-goal attempts on the season.

While Miami's kick-return game is solid (24.9 ypa, 11th), it has managed to compile just 62 yards on 12 punt-return attempts for a 5.2 ypa average - good for 27th in the league. Miami is allowing more yards to opponents on both fronts - 26 yards per kickoff attempt and 9.1 yards per punt return. Kicker Caleb Sturgis has connected on just 11 of 15 field-goal chances in 2013, and missed a pair in last Sunday's loss to the Patriots.

Edge: Cincinnati


Notable Quotable

"It's a lot of fun to come out and play the way we've been doing. It has been a lot of fun for the fans and everybody that's in Cincinnati that is rooting for us. If we can keep delivering and we can keep playing like we have been, I think there will be a lot of happy people." - Dalton

"I understand that there are probably four right tackles in the NFL that can block Elvis Dumervil and Mario Williams consistently one-on-one. At this point in my career, it doesn't appear that I'm one of them." - Dolphins OL Tyson Clabo, who was benched last week after allowing eight sacks in six games

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Bengals at Dolphins

October 30, 2013

The Chiefs and Broncos have taken plenty of the headlines in the AFC through the first half of the season. However, the Bengals aren't too far behind with a 6-2 record, while holding on to a comfortable lead in the AFC North heading into Week 9. Cincinnati travels down to Miami looking to extend a four-game winning streak, while the Dolphins have dropped four straight games after a 3-0 start.

The Bengals' offense put up their biggest output since 2009 in Sunday's 49-9 drubbing of the Jets, as Andy Dalton threw a career-high five touchdown passes. Cincinnati easily covered as six-point home favorites, while not allowing a touchdown at Paul Brown Stadium in the last nine quarters. Dalton connected with second-year wideout Marvin Jones for four scores, while the Bengals' defense returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns.

The Dolphins last won a game on September 22, a last-minute triumph against the Falcons at home. Since that 3-0 beginning to the season, Miami has stumbled for four consecutive defeats, including a blown 14-point lead in this past Sunday's 27-17 setback at New England. The Dolphins jumped out to a 17-3 halftime advantage, but Joe Philbin's club didn't score a point in the second half, while allowing 24 points to the division-leading Patriots. Miami failed to cover as 6 ½-point road underdogs, the fourth straight ATS defeat for the Dolphins since cashing in its first three victories.

Dalton and the Bengals look to avenge a home loss to the Dolphins last season, 17-13 as three-point favorites. Miami rushed for just 68 yards on 35 carries, but Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush each scored a touchdown on the ground, while Ryan Tannehill threw for 223 yards. Dalton was intercepted twice by the Miami defense, but connected with A.J. Green on a touchdown strike in the fourth quarter to cut the deficit to four points. The Dolphins held on for the underdog win, while beating the Bengals in each of the last two matchups (won at Cincinnati in 2010).

Cincinnati has split four games from an ATS standpoint as a favorite, which includes non-covers at Cleveland and Buffalo. The Bengals managed to knock off the Bills in overtime, but couldn't cash as six-point road 'chalk.' Since Dalton arrived as quarterback in 2011, the Bengals own a 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS when laying points on the highway, with four of those victories coming by double-digits.

Since 2010, the Dolphins have won just 11 of their last 27 games at Sun Life Stadium, which includes losses this season to the Ravens and Bills. Under Philbin, Miami has covered three of four times in the home underdog role (all last season), including an upset of Seattle as three-point 'dogs, 27-24 last November. Also, Miami has lost seven consecutive home games to AFC North opponents, with that streak starting in a 38-25 defeat to Cincinnati to close the 2007 season.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says this game can be a make-or-break for the Dolphins, "Considering both teams enter Week 9 with aspirations of lasting past Week 17, this contest at the halfway point means everything, momentum-wise. Can Dalton continue to sizzle as he has the past few weeks, further developing in-game chemistry with a formidable young receiving corps? If the Bengals continue to pile up passing yardage, it will be imperative that Tannehill find a suitable replacement for the injured Brandon Gibson, especially since Mike Wallace's transition has gone so poorly. Expect the team who does the most damage through the aerial attack to prevail on Thursday night."

Gibson tore his ACL in Sunday's loss to the Patriots, as the receiver is tied with Charles Clay for the team lead in touchdowns with three. The Dolphins will likely be without left tackle Jonathan Martin, who is listed as doubtful with an illness.

From a totals perspective, the Dolphins saw their five-game streak to the 'over' end in the loss at New England, as Miami has hit the 'over' in five of seven contests this season. The Bengals are riding a three-game 'over' streak, while posting the 'over' in three of four games away from Paul Brown Stadium this season.

The Bengals are listed as three-point road favorites at most outlets, while the total is set at 43. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13.......

32) Jaguars—Its not good when a team’s best week of the season is their bye week, but…….

31) Buccaneers—Tampa to Seattle is a long plane trip to get spanked. Bucs are 17-point dogs this week, and Seattle’s offense was putrid Monday night. Good luck there.

30) Vikings—Please decide on a QB; one of these three, or Bob Lee or Joe Kapp or Gary Cuozzo. Just pick one and let him play.

29) Eagles—Wonder if Chip Kelly has called his agent and asked, “When does the NCAA’s show cause order against me run out?”

28) Steelers—You can’t allow the longest run by a QB in NFL history on the first play of the game. Worse yet, it was obvious Pryor was scoring when he crossed his own 25-yard line. Be ready to play—they weren’t in Oakland.

8) Bengals—Averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt in each of last two games--- that doesn't happen much.

7) Colts—This week will be first game Reggie Wayne has missed since '01.

6) Packers—RB Lacy gives their offense excellent balance; when they get some WRs back from injury, will be even better on offense.

5) 49ers—Bully team; they whack the weak sisters, but got beat pretty good by Seahawks/Colts.

4) Chiefs—Buffalo, then bye week, then Denver twice in three weeks, with division rival Chargers in between. What a great year they’re having.

3) Seahawks—As a Ram fan, makes me sick losing that game Monday nite. There is no way Seattle beats the Saints in January if the game is on Bourbon Street-- game might not be there, though.

2) Saints—On a neutral field, think Saints are NFC’s best, but if they have to go to Seattle in January, can they win there?

1) Broncos—What percentage of our nation’s football fans know who Peyton Manning’s backup is? Hint: He played in college at Arizona State.

[StarDust Bum]

Dolphins, Bengals hook up

October 31, 2013

CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-2) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Cincinnati -3 & 43.5
Opening Line & Total: Bengals -1 & 42.5

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet Thursday night when the Bengals put their four-game win streak on the line versus the Dolphins, losers of four straight (SU and ATS).

Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has been on fire in the past three games with 1,034 passing yards and 11 TD, including four scoring throws to WR Marvin Jones in Sunday's 49-9 rout of the Jets. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has been awful during his team's losing skid, completing just 54.5% of his passes with seven interceptions and 18 sacks taken. This includes absorbing six sacks in Sunday's 27-17 loss at New England in a game the Dolphins led 17-3 at half. Miami beat the Bengals 17-13 in a defensive struggle last year, as the clubs combined for five turnovers and just 148 rushing yards (2.7 YPC). Neither Tannehill (223 pass yards, 0 TD, 0 INT) nor Dalton (234 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) were very effective in that 2012 meeting.

Both teams have some favorable betting trends to consider for Thursday. The Bengals are 9-1 ATS after a double-digit win over the past three seasons and are 6-0 ATS on the road after gaining 400+ yards in two straight games under head coach Marvin Lewis. However, Miami benefits from Lewis going 7-16 ATS (30%) versus AFC East opponents and that the Bengals are 10-23 ATS (30%) when facing a marginal losing team (40% to 49% win pct.) since 1992. Both teams announced season-ending injuries to key players this past week with news that Cincinnati DBs Leon Hall (Achilles) and Taylor Mays (shoulder), and Dolphins WR Brandon Gibson (knee) are all done for the year.

As well as the Bengals have played during their four-game surge, they are just 1-2-1 ATS on the road this year with a pedestrian 20.2 PPG and 87 rushing YPG on 3.5 yards per carry. RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard comprise a mediocre ground game (99.8 rush YPG) that has averaged a mere 3.6 yards per rush (26th in NFL). That has prompted the Bengals to take to the air with QB Andy Dalton, whose recent hot streak puts him fourth in the NFL in passing yards (2,249) and seventh in passer rating (8.1 YPA, 16 TD, 7 INT). In addition to Marvin Jones' four-score heroics last week, Dalton continues to rely on top WR A.J. Green who leads the AFC with 734 receiving yards and ranks among the top-10 wideouts in the NFL in both catches (46) and TD receptions (five).

The offense is also helped by Bengals defense that allows just 4.8 yards per play (4th in NFL) and 18.0 PPG (T-5th in league). The run defense has given up just two 100-yard games all year, holding the past two opponents to 85.0 rushing YPG on 3.5 YPC. Cincinnati has generated 20 sacks over the past six contests and 12 takeaways on the year. Exploiting the shaky Dolphins offensive line with a consistent pass rush will be key with the injuries in the secondary to CB Leon Hall and SS Taylor Mays. Also, DT Devon Still (elbow) is questionable for this game while LB Rey Maualuga remains out indefinitely with a knee injury.

Miami's offense has been subpar in all facets this year with 311 total YPG (28th in NFL), 89.1 rushing YPG (23rd in league) and 5.95 passing yards per attempt (24th in NFL). But despite the struggles of QB Ryan Tannehill in recent weeks, the ground game has been excellent over the past two games with 276 yards on 4.9 YPC. Top RB Lamar Miller racked up 112 total yards in last week's loss to the Patriots, and did not get a carry against the Bengals last year. No. 2 RB Daniel Thomas rushed for a touchdown in that win in Cincinnati but finished with only 29 yards on 10 carries. But in the past two games, Thomas has exploded for 107 yards on 21 attempts (5.1 YPC) and remains in a near timeshare with Miller.

With slot WR Brandon Gibson out for the season, second-year pro Rishard Matthews will fill his spot, coming off a three-catch, 30-yard performance when he was targeted a season-high six times last week. But Tannehill will still look mostly to consistent WR Brian Hartline (3+ catches in all seven games) and mercurial deep threat WR Mike Wallace who hauled in just three of 10 targets last week. The Miami defense ranks 20th in the NFL versus the pass (245 YPG) and 19th against the run (110 YPG), but a lot of that is due to being on the field for 31:27 (8th-most in NFL). The Dolphins have given up 23+ points in each of the past five games, but with DE Cameron Wake (15 sacks last year) nearly 100 percent recovered from his knee injury, the pass rush has been much better since the bye week, tallying seven sacks in two games. Miami's defense has also forced at least one turnover in every game this season, totaling 11 over their seven contests.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS

1 Baltimore at Denver -7.5, 48.5 49-27 Favorite-Over

2 N.Y. Jets at New England -11, 43 13-10 Underdog-Under

3 Kansas City at Philadelphia -3, 51 26-16 Underdog-Under

4 San Francisco at St. Louis -3.5, 43 35-11 Favorite-Over

5 Buffalo at Cleveland -3.5, 41 37-24 Favorite-Over

6 N.Y. Giants at Chicago -8, 47 27-21 Underdog-Over

7 Seattle at Arizona -5, 41 34-22 Favorite-Over

8 Carolina at Tampa Bay -7, 39 31-13 Favorite-Over

9 Cincinnati at Miami - - -

10 Washington at Minnesota - - -

11 Indianapolis at Tennessee - - -

12 New Orleans at Atlanta - - -

13 Pittsburgh at Baltimore - - -

14 Houston at Jacksonville - - -

15 San Diego at Denver - - -

16 Miami at Buffalo

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 8:25 PM ET Miami +3 500 POD # 1

Miami - Under 43 500 POD # 2

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Sunday's Top Action

November 1, 2013


PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-5) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -7 & 43.5
Opening Line & Total: Patriots -6.5 & 44

Two struggling offenses collide when the Patriots host the Steelers on Sunday.

Pittsburgh has failed to reach 20 points in each of its past three contests while averaging only 297 total YPG in this span. New England QB Tom Brady has had a horrible four-game stretch (52% completion pct., 5.4 YPA, 2 TD, 4 INT), as his team has alternated wins and losses. Brady's offense has been saved by his team's defense that has allowed just 4.9 yards per play this season (6th in NFL). The Steelers' defense has also stood tall recently, allowing just 14.3 PPG and 278 total YPG over the past three contests. But the unit has not been able to figure out Brady, who has a 6-2 record, 276 passing YPG, 16 TD and only 3 INT in his career versus Pittsburgh. However, the Steelers have won two of the past three meetings, including a 33-10 rout in their most recent visit to Foxboro in 2008. They also benefit from the fact that NFL road underdogs off a road loss in November games are 50-18 ATS (74%) over the past 10 seasons. But New England, which is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) at home this year, usually bounces back strong after a poor passing game, going 23-6 ATS (79%) after failing to surpass 150 passing yards in a game since Bill Belichick took over as head coach.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is in the midst of his worst season since 2008, based on his 87.2 passer rating. He's thrown for 1,930 yards (276 YPG, 7.4 YPA), but has just 8 TD passes and 11 turnovers (7 INT, 4 lost fumbles). Although he's just 3-4 in his career versus New England, he has still thrown for 1,756 yards (251 YPG), 14 TD and 6 INT in these seven meetings. What has also hurt him this season is a dreadful ground game that averages only 68.7 rushing YPG (3rd-worst in NFL) and 3.3 yards per carry (4th-worst in league). Injuries to virtually every starting offensive lineman have certainly taken its toll. The team has scored a meager 17.9 PPG (5th-worst in NFL) due largely to a horrible red-zone efficiency of just 40% (3rd-worst in league). While the defense has stepped up recently, its lack of big plays has certainly hurt, as Pittsburgh has failed to force a turnover in five of its seven contests this year. However, the team still ranks fourth in the NFL in total defense (303 YPG allowed), fourth in first downs allowed (17.1 per game) and second in passing defense (181 YPG).

Despite the well-chronicled problems of the passing offense for the Patriots (5.5 passing YPA, 2nd-worst in league), they have actually been effective moving the football on the ground with 120.6 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC, both categories which rank 12th in the NFL. RB Stevan Ridley has rushed for a touchdown in three straight games, averaging 5.0 YPC over this stretch. But New England has not been able to punch the ball in with any consistency, ranking second-to-last in the league in Goal to Go efficiency (46.7%). The loss of RT Sebastian Vollmer (broken leg) last week will certainly hurt too. The good news for QB Tom Brady is that all of his receivers have been healthy all week during practice, and his timing with WR Danny Amendola and TE Rob Gronkowski, who have both missed the majority of the season, should improve. The defense is a battered mess with DT Vince Wilfork (ankle) and LB Jerod Mayo (pectoral) both done for the season, and DT Tommy Kelly (knee), CB Aqib Talib (hip) and CB Kyle Arrington (groin) all questionable to play. But the unit continues to hold strong, especially with its excellent red-zone defense (44%, 5th-best in NFL), which has led to 18.0 PPG allowed (5th-best in NFL). New England is also doing a great job of forcing turnovers, with at least one in every game and 16 total takeaways this season.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-6) at DALLAS COWBOYS (4-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -10.5 & 48.5
Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -10.5 & 48

The Vikings are still looking for their first win on American soil when they visit a Cowboys team eager to erase last week’s stunning loss.

Since Minnesota beat the Steelers in London, the club has lost three straight games by a combined 54 points, making it 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) in U.S.-based games. Dallas led by 10 points with four minutes left in Detroit last week, but allowed an 80-yard TD drive in the -final minute to lose 31-30. But the team still managed to cover the spread for the fourth game in a row and improved to 7-1 ATS on the season. The Vikings have gained just 246 YPG during their losing skid, while the Cowboys have forced 11 turnovers during their four-game ATS win streak. Minnesota is 7-1 (SU and ATS) in its past eight meetings with Dallas, but the one loss was the most recent visit to Big D in 2007 when the Cowboys prevailed 24-14. The Vikings have a few trends in their favor including the fact that all NFL teams after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers are 134-79 ATS (63%) over the past 10 seasons. But Dallas is 23-10 ATS (70%) after allowing 300+ passing yards in its last game since 1992. Both teams have a slew of injuries, as Minnesota's secondary could be thin with S Harrison Smith (toe) out, and both CB Chris Cook (hip) and S Jamarca Sanford (groin) questionable. The Cowboys expect to get top RB DeMarco Murray (knee) back in action, but they could be without three key players in WR Miles Austin (hamstring), DE DeMarcus Ware (quad) and CB Morris Claiborne (hamstring).

Minnesota has not announced whether Christian Ponder or Josh Freeman will start under center, but Ponder has been taking most of the first-team reps all week and is expected to start. Both signal callers have had subpar seasons, with Ponder throwing for just two touchdowns and five picks over four games while Freeman has completed a pathetic 42.9% of his passes with 2 TD and 4 INT in his four games. The lack of a consistent quarterback and true go-to receiver (nobody has reached 30 receptions) has led to a mere 306 total YPG (4th-fewest in NFL) and 203 passing YPG (6th-fewest in league) for the Vikings, but they have still scored 23.3 PPG, which ranks 16th in the NFL. Although the ground game has generated only 103.3 rushing YPG (18th in league), its 4.6 yards per carry is sixth-best in the NFL. RB Adrian Peterson is averaging 81.6 rushing YPG, but that number is way down from his 131.1 rushing YPG from his 2,000-yard campaign in 2012. But he has been much more effective over his past four contests with a 4.9 YPC rate compared to his 4.1 YPC rate in the first three weeks of the season. Peterson has rushed for 136 yards (3.8 YPC) and 2 TD in two career games versus Dallas. The Minnesota defense has played poorly all season, but has been on the field for a whopping 35:07, which is the most in the NFL. This has led to 402 total YPG allowed (3rd-most in league), but it's not all the fault of the offense, as the defensive unit has allowed 51% conversions on third down leading to 24.1 first downs per game, which are both the worst defensive rates in the NFL. The Vikings started out the season with 12 forced turnovers in four games, but they have just one takeaway over the past three contests. With such a talented defensive line, there's no reason this team shouldn't have more than the 14 sacks they have generated in 2013 (five sacks over past three games).

Dallas was supposed to run the football more this year with new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan calling the plays, but the team currently ranks 27th in the league in rushing offense (80.6 YPG) with 3.7 YPC (24th in NFL). Top RB DeMarco Murray has been inactive the past two games with a knee injury though, and he should return Sunday to try to keep up his strong 4.7 YPC this season. The Cowboys have thrived through the air in 2013 with 261.3 passing YPG (8th in NFL). QB Tony Romo ranks among the top-7 quarterbacks in the NFL in passer rating (101.7), pass attempts (295), completions (195), completion percentage (66.1%), passing yards (2,216) and passing touchdowns (18), while tossing just five interceptions. His top WR Dez Bryant had an outburst on the sidelines during last week's loss in protest of his season-low-tying six targets, but he still has 20 more targets than any of his teammates this year, which has resulted in 45 catches for 641 yards and 8 TD. With WR Miles Austin still bothered by a bad hamstring, rookie WR Terrance Williams has stepped up with 384 receiving yards and 4 TD over the past five games. The Dallas defense was torched last week for 623 total yards, including 480 through the air. But that wasn't a huge surprise considering the unit ranks last in the NFL in both total defense (422.5 YPG) and passing defense (315.4 YPG), while allowing the league's second-most first downs (23.9 per game). A weak pass rush (eight sacks over past five games) hasn't helped the cause, but the Cowboys have done a great job in forcing turnovers with 2+ takeaways in each of the past four games and 19 forced turnovers this year.

ATLANTA FALCONS (2-5) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Carolina -8 & 45
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -6.5 & 43.5

The sizzling-hot Panthers seek a fourth straight win when they host the slumping Falcons on Sunday.

Atlanta suffered its worst loss of the season with Matt Ryan’s 4 INT resulting in a 27-13 defeat in Arizona. Meanwhile, Carolina has zero turnovers during its three-game win streak (SU and ATS), in which it has won by a combined score of 96 to 38. QB Cam Newton has completed 77.3% of his passes for 667 yards and 6 TD during the surge. The Falcons have rushed for a pathetic 41.8 YPG in the past four weeks, while the Panthers rank second in the NFL with 79.3 rushing YPG allowed. Atlanta is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in the past six meetings with Carolina, but the teams split their two contests last year with both home teams winning straight-up, while the Panthers covered in both meetings thanks to 394 rushing yards in the two games. Both teams have significant offensive injuries, as the Falcons are without WR Julio Jones (foot) for the season, and could also be missing WR Roddy White (hamstring), OT Sam Baker (knee) and RB Jason Snelling (ankle) who are all questionable. Carolina's top rusher, RB DeAngelo Williams, has been slowed by a quad injury, but RB Jonathan Stewart (ankles) expects to make his season debut in this game. Atlanta doesn't usually have two bad games in a row under head coach Mike Smith, going 11-0 ATS after a double-digit loss and 12-1 ATS after scoring 14 points or less. But the Panthers are 13-2 ATS after three straight games with a positive turnover margin since 1992, and 7-0 ATS when allowing less than 100 rushing yards in two straight games over the past two seasons.

Despite the Falcons having the NFL's worst ground game (62.4 rushing YPG) that has gained a mere 3.4 yards per carry (6th-fewest in NFL), they continue to move the football through the air with 300.4 passing YPG (4th in NFL). Despite not having his top two receivers, QB Matt Ryan has still thrown for 2,223 yards (5th in NFL) with 14 TD (T-8th in league) and just seven interceptions. However, four of those picks came last week on the road, where Atlanta is now 0-3 (SU and ATS) with a mere 17.7 PPG and eight turnovers (minus-4 TO margin). Ryan has a great chance to bounce back though, as he has had huge career success versus the Panthers with a 7-3 record, 2,518 passing YPG, 17 TD and 6 INT in 10 meetings. He'll look mostly to WR Harry Douglas, who has blossomed with a larger role in the passing game with 19 catches (on 25 targets) for 270 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks. But both of the club's top running backs have really struggled with RB Steven Jackson gaining a career-low 3.3 yards per carry and RB Jacquizz Rodgers even lower at 3.2 YPC. Defensively, the Falcons rank 27th out of 32 NFL teams in a number of categories, including yards per pass attempt (7.3), yards per carry (4.6) and third-down conversion rate (44.1%). But the biggest problem could be the team's lack of takeaways, as it has generated multiple turnovers just once all season. This doesn't bode well against a Carolina team that has made no big mistakes during its win streak.

Panthers QB Cam Newton has been rolling in his past three games, but those wins have come versus Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay, which have a combined 4-18 record this season. The recent surge puts him seventh in the NFL in passer rating (97.6), due to his 7.7 YPA, 12 TD and just 5 INT this year. Newton also played very well in last year's series with Atlanta, completing 64.4% of his passes for 502 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT, plus burning them on the ground for 202 yards on 18 carries (11.2 YPC) with two more scores. With both of his top rushers less than 100 percent, Newton will likely carry the football a lot more on Sunday. The Panthers' offense has ground up a 33:39 time of possession (2nd in NFL) and Newton has also done a great job delivering when it matters most, ranking among the top five NFL teams in converting third downs (45.3%), red-zone efficiency (65.2%) and Goal to Go efficiency (81.8%). Newton has also spread the wealth among his receivers, as five Panthers have multiple touchdown receptions this year and four have surpassed 275 receiving yards. Defensively, Carolina has been fierce, especially against the run where it has held each of the past five opponents to 90 yards or less, allowing just 67.2 rushing YPG on 3.7 YPC over this span. The unit has stayed fresh all season with just 26:16 time of possession, leading to 301.4 total YPG allowed (3rd in NFL). The defense has also held strong in the red zone (37.5% efficiency, 4th in league) that has led to its paltry 13.7 PPG allowed (2nd in NFL). The Panthers have also shown the ability to make plays with at least one takeaway in all seven contests, including three forced turnovers in three of the past five games.