The Bum's NFL November's POD'S Stats-News Etc. !

[StarDust Bum]

AFC-NFC Over Trend (76%)

November 10, 2013


Trending Over

VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence brought this trend to our attention in his weekly "Inside the Stats" pieces on VegasInsider.com. We've kept a tally of the trend and it's been very profitable this season.
Including Sunday's results, there have been 45 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 34-11 (76%) in those games, which includes a 10-0 record the past three weeks.

In Week 10, the first three matchups saw the 'over' cash.

Oakland at N.Y. Giants – Over 41

St. Louis at Indianapolis -- Over 43

Houston at Arizona - Over 42

The last AFC-NFC matchup takes place on Monday when Tampa Bay hosts Miami.

Chris David, who provides a weekly Total Talk column on VegasInsider.com, offered up his quick thoughts on the hot trend.

He said, “I’m amazed the non-conference trend hit again this past week. I’m very pleased that Marc (Lawrence) published the trend and I really hope that bettors have been taking advantage of it because you don’t see 76% streaks this often, especially with a sample size of nearly 50 games. Looking ahead, I usually believe all things balance out but there aren’t many non-conference matchups remaining with the regular season schedule back-loaded with divisional games.”

David explained how he would handicap the Miami-Tampa Bay, which also fits the AFC-NFC matchup.

“Everybody is well aware of the mess in Miami since it’s been well documented. Personally, I take emotion out of handicapping. It’s a no-win situation and I can offer up plenty of examples of how it works or doesn’t work. For instance, many believed the Vikings would rally around Vikings running back Adrian Peterson after his son died in September while plenty of others thought the tragedy would hurt the team. I don’t like to play that angle either way and try to base my opinion on other factors.”

“If I had to play this total I would lean ‘over’ for a couple reasons. For starters, the Buccaneers have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight games and the defense, which was thought to be solid, has been anything but lately. I’m also aware of the Seattle-Trend this season and how teams have played in their next game. More importantly, the defensive units have been shredded.”

“I’m fully aware that Miami isn’t great offensively or defensively but both units have shown the ability to make plays. Based on their last seven games, the Dolphins have seen at least 40-plus combined points scored in all of them.”

“Two issues that could keep this game ‘under’ would be the Buccaneers inability to score at home this season and the ‘under’ has cashed the last four weeks on MNF.”

[StarDust Bum]

2013 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS

1 Philadelphia at Washington -4, 52 33-27 Underdog-Over

1 Houston at San Diego -5, 44 31-28 Underdog-Over

2 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -7, 40 20-10 Favorite-Under

3 Oakland at Denver -16, 48 ½ 37-21 Push-Over

4 Miami at New Orleans -7, 50 38-17 Favorite-Over

5 N.Y. Jets at Atlanta -10, 45 30-28 Underdog-Over

6 Indianapolis at San Diego -1 ½, 51 19-9 Underdog-Under

7 Minnesota at N.Y. Giants -4, 47 ½ 23-7 Favorite-Under

8 Seattle at St. Louis -12, 43 ½ 14-9 Underdog-Under

9 Chicago at Green Bay +10 ½, 51 ½ 27-20 Underdog-Under

10 Miami at Tampa Bay - -

11 New England at Carolina - - -

12 San Francisco at Washington - - -

13 New Orleans at Seattle - - -

14 Dallas at Chicago - - -

15 Baltimore at Detroit - - -

16 Atlanta at San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, November 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Miami - 8:40 PM ET Tampa Bay +1 500 POD # 1


Tampa Bay - Under 39.5 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Tuesday

November 12, 2013


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Wizards are 10-0-2 ATS (6.54 ppg) since Mar 13, 2012 on the road when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Heat are 10-0 OU (10.15 ppg) since Nov 05, 2012 with at least one day of rest when their DPA was at least plus 15 points in their previous game.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Warriors are 11-0 ATS (6.27 ppg) since Apr 03, 2013 after Stephen Curry was the Warriors’ high scorer.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Wizards are 0-10 OU (-14.95 ppg) since Apr 18, 2007 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Pistons are 7-0 ATS (2.14 ppg) since Mar 13, 2013 on the road after Charlie Villanueva scored fewer than 10 points.
-- The Wizards are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.89 ppg) since Mar 24, 2010 off an overtime loss.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, November 12

Milwaukee at Miami, 7:35 ET
Milwaukee: 13-26 ATS against Southeast division opponents
Miami: 35-21 ATS after playing a home game

Washington at Dallas, 8:35 ET
Washington: 41-22 ATS off a close road loss of 3 points or less
Dallas: 22-11 OVER as a home favorite

Detroit at Golden State, 10:35 ET
Detroit: 18-8 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more
Golden State: 19-35 ATS in home games after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games

New Orleans at LA Lakers, 10:35 ET
New Orleans: 9-22 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
LA Lakers: 23-12 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

New Orleans at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to take advantage of a New Orleans team that is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games. LA is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 12

Game 501-502: Milwaukee at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 115.275; Miami 127.377
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 12; 214
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 503-504: Washington at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.032; Dallas 125.951
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 14; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Under

Game 505-506: Detroit at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.790; Golden State 128.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 13; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 9; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-9); Under

Game 507-508: New Orleans at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.887; LA Lakers 118.206
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, November 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (2 - 3) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/12/2013, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-5 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (2 - 4) at DALLAS (4 - 3) - 11/12/2013, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 84-121 ATS (-49.1 Units) in November games since 1996.
DALLAS is 51-37 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 133-99 ATS (+24.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
DALLAS is 259-211 ATS (+26.9 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 50-37 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (2 - 4) at GOLDEN STATE (4 - 3) - 11/12/2013, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 3-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) at LA LAKERS (3 - 5) - 11/12/2013, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 38-55 ATS (-22.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 122-160 ATS (-54.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, November 12

Hot teams
-- Heat won three of last four games, are 1-3 as home favorites.
-- Mavericks are 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 9-12-19 points.
-- Golden State is only 4-3, but they're 2-0 as home favorites, winning by 31-11 points.

Cold teams
-- Bucks are 2-3 this season, but covered both games as road dogs.
-- Washington is 1-3 on road, losing by 11-10-1 points- they're 2-1 as a road underdog.
-- Pistons lost their last three games by 8-9-6 games.
-- Lakers lost five of their last seven games. Pelicans are 1-2 on road; underdogs won all three games.

Series records
-- Bucks lost six in row vs Miami, all by 11+ points.
-- Dallas won last six games vs Washington, but Wizards covered five of last seven series games.
-- Golden State won last four games with Detroit; underdogs covered last five series games.
-- Lakers lost by 11 in New Orleans Friday, its first loss to Pelicans in last ten meetings; New Orleans lost last five games at the Lakers.

Totals
-- Five of seven Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of six Washington games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total; four of last five Golden State games stayed under.
-- Last three New Orleans games stayed under the total.




NBA

Tuesday, November 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:30 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Miami
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 12 games

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
Washington is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington

10:30 PM
DETROIT vs. GOLDEN STATE
Detroit is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Golden State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Detroit

10:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. LA LAKERS
New Orleans is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games on the road
LA Lakers are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games
LA Lakers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing New Orleans


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Tuesday, November 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA betting: Three ATS slam dunks for bettors
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With the NBA season now two weeks old, it has been an interesting start as we have seen some good teams play poorly and some bad teams play very well. But as the league moves into its third week let's take a look at who some of the best teams have been when it comes to covering the spread.


Phoenix Suns (6-0-1 ATS)

No one in the NBA has had a hotter start to the season than the Phoenix Suns. The Suns lead the Pacific Division with a 5-2 SU record and are the only team in the NBA without a loss ATS. The Suns have been successful this season by being stingy on defense and efficient on offense. At the defensive end of the court the Suns are ranked in the top 10 in ppg, field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage. On offense the Suns are scoring 100.3 ppg which puts them 13th in the league and are shooting at a clip of 46.5 percent from the floor, which ranks ninth. The Suns next four opponents have a combined record of 10-14 ATS.


Indiana Pacers (5-2 ATS)

If not for a meaningless last second dunk by the Raptors Terrance Ross when the Pacers beat the Toronto 91-84 last Saturday, the Pacers would have covered and be 6-1 ATS to start the season. Indy is off to its hottest start in franchise history by going 7-0 SU and are the NBA's only remaining undefeated team. The Pacers are led by Paul George, who does everything. He is scoring 25.1 points per game, shooting almost 47 percent from the field to go along with 7.9 rebounds, 4 assists and 1.7 steals per game. But the Pacers do most of their damage at the defensive end of the court, where they rank first in points allowed per game, first in field goal percentage, sixth in rebounds and ninth in 3-point percentage. The Pacers next four opponents have a combined 7-15 record ATS.


Minnesota Timberwolves (5-2)

The Timberwolves have had a strong start to the season going 5-2 straight up and have covered the spread in five of their last six games. The Wolves have been able to do this because of their work on the offensive glass. They are currently seventh in the league in offensive rebounding and that is creating a lot of second chance opportunities for the Wolves who are averaging a league high 88.4 field goal attempts per game. Kevin Love seems to have regained his old form after an injury riddled 2012-13 campaign. Love is second in the league in ppg with 26.9 and leads the league in rpg with 14.4. The Wolves next four opponents have a combined 12-14 record ATS.


**All stats and numbers prior to Monday's action.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, November 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Milwaukee - 7:30 PM ET Milwaukee +13.5 500

Miami - Over 196.5 500 POD # 2

Washington - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -5.5 500

Dallas - Over 206 500 POD # 4

Detroit - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -9 500 POD # 1

Golden State - Over 202.5 500

New Orleans - 10:30 PM ET New Orleans -3 500

L.A. Lakers - Under 200.5 500 POD # 3

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Patience required for Chicago backers

Spread to bet now

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

Steelers' fans should consider jumping on their team right away. This line opened at +3, quickly dropped to 2.5, with 1.5's and 1's now starting to predominate.

The Lions would hold on for a 21-19 win in Chicago last week while the Steelers would bounce back from back-to-back losses to beat the Bills 23-10.

As brutally as Pittsburgh started the season, at 3-6 entering Week 11, it still mathematically has a shot at catching the division leading Bengals who are 6-4. A cold day at Heinz Field in mid-November is just what the doctor ordered for Pittsburgh to continue its winning ways.

Expect bettors to hit the undervalued home side throughout the week and for this number to inch closer and closer to the "pick em" range.


Spread to wait on

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-3)

Bears' backers be warned! I'd recommend waiting a little closer to kickoff before jumping on your team this week.

This lined opened at -3 and as of printing, I do in fact see a couple of 2.5's on the board (Pinnacle, 5Dimes), and I suspect that we'll start to see more and more as the week goes on.

Chicago coach Mark Trestman has said that QB Jay Cutler suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week's 21-19 loss to the Lions and has been ruled out vs. Baltimore. Josh McCown will now get the start for 'Da Bears under center this week.

The defending champs have looked brilliant at times this season and pretty pedestrian in others, but their 20-17 win over rival Cincinnati has them once again firmly in the mix for the division title this year. Cutler's injury will force bettors hands into backing the visitors this week.


Total to watch

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (46)

Under bettors would be wise to get down on this one immediately.

This line opened at 46, and while for the most part that is still the predominating number as of printing, there are now a few 45.5's on the board as well. I think it could drop even lower.

Over the Vikes nine games this year, the total is 7-2; 5-0 at home but just 2-2 on the road. The Seahawks O/U to date is 5-5, dead even at 2-2 at home and 3-3 away from friendly confines.

A wet, blustery week leading up to kickoff in Seattle seems like conducive conditions for each club putting an added emphasis on running and protecting the ball in this game.

[StarDust Bum]

Close Calls - Week 10

November 12, 2013

NFL games often go down to the wire, especially relative to the spread. Here are close calls from Week 10 of the NFL season, recapping the spread-changing plays from the fourth quarters around the league. Each week there are several key plays late in games that can change the result or create a misleading final score, get the details in this weekly column.

Minnesota Vikings (+1) 34, Washington Redskins 27: The Redskins opened up a 27-14 lead well into the third quarter, but Minnesota would battle back, scoring two touchdowns in less than four minutes to lead by one entering the fourth quarter. Quarterback Christian Ponder was injured just before the second touchdown as the Vikings held a slim margin on the scoreboard in a game where the outright winner was almost certain to cover as well. Washington's offense disappeared in the fourth quarter with two drives with almost no yards gained, while Minnesota behind Matt Cassel was able to add two field goals to lead by seven with less than four minutes to go. Playing with some urgency, the Redskins made it down to the Minnesota 4-yard line, but in the final minute, the final three throws from RGIII went incomplete as the Vikings held on.

New York Giants (-7) 24, Oakland Raiders 20: There were big plays early in this game as a fumble set up a Raiders touchdown in the first minute and the Giants tied the game with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Late in the second quarter, Oakland had an interception return touchdown to give them a halftime lead. By the start of the fourth quarter, the Giants had taken a 21-20 lead but the Giants burned nearly seven minutes of the final frame only to settle for a 23-yard field goal, unable to get past the spread with a four-point lead. After an exchange of punts, Oakland approached midfield, but Terrelle Pryor was sacked and the Giants recovered a fumble in Oakland territory. The Giants were able to pick up two first downs as Oakland used its timeouts and there was no need to add further scoring, though the Giants took a knee well within field goal range, leaving Oakland to hold on for the underdog cover.

Baltimore Ravens (-2) 20, Cincinnati Bengals 17: The Bengals were a slight road favorite most of the week, but this line flipped on game day as Baltimore went off as a slight favorite. The Ravens appeared worthy of the move with a 17-0 lead at halftime. Cincinnati climbed back into the game with a field goal in the third quarter and then a touchdown with eight minutes to go in the fourth after a Joe Flacco interception. After taking the 17-0 lead, Baltimore's drives consisted of six punts and two turnovers with a total of just 70 yards, but what appeared to be a costly midfield fumble was wiped out with an Andy Dalton interception a few plays later as the Ravens took over with less than two minutes to go and a seven-point lead. Cincinnati had all three timeouts and after three Baltimore runs fell short, the Bengals got the ball back with over a minute to go. It was a not a pretty two-minute drill as the Bengals gained nine yards in six plays, only to have one final shot from midfield. Cincinnati got the miracle it needed as the Hail Mary attempt deflected up and landed smoothly into A.J. Green's hands for the tying score. With momentum, the Bengals got the ball first and moved the ball well, getting to the Baltimore 33-yard line and on fourth and two, the Bengals went for it. The move backfired with an 11-yard loss as Giovani Benard tried to make something out of nothing, giving Baltimore great field position. The Ravens were able to get two first downs and they put the game away with a 46-yard field goal, earning the narrow cover in the process.

Detroit Lions (-1 ½) 21, Chicago Bears 19: The look-ahead line on this game had Detroit as a 3 ½-point favorite, but with Jay Cutler being announced as the starter, the game fell to a pick for most of the week before a slight climb Sunday with the Lions closing as a slim favorite. Detroit took a 14-7 lead in the third quarter and they still held a one-point lead after the Bears had to settle for two short field goals. Up one in the fourth quarter, Detroit missed a makeable field goal with about six minutes to go, but the Bears did nothing with the great opportunity. Detroit's next chance paid out with the Lions going 74 yards for a touchdown to lead by eight with just over two minutes to go. Josh McCown was in the game at quarterback for the Bears and he did a nice job to lead Chicago to a touchdown with just 40 seconds to go. Needing the two-point conversion, the Bears failed on a pass attempt, but a Detroit penalty gave Chicago a on that drive as the Lions held on.

Arizona Cardinals (-4) 27, Houston Texans 24: With the season the Texans have had, this game could not have started out any worse as Arizona had a 7-0 lead 14 seconds in with a fumble return touchdown. The Texans kept their composure, however, and actually took a 17-14 halftime lead. Two short field goals gave Arizona a 20-17 lead going into the fourth quarter. The spread on this game was -2 ½ most of the week so the three-point margin was going to be enough for many on the home favorite but the line did climb to -3 over the weekend and then Sunday afternoon, shot up to -3 ½ or even -4 at a few outlets in the hour or two before kickoff. Arizona appeared to make it a non-issue with a touchdown score with less than seven minutes to go to take a 10-point lead. Houston punted on its next possession and the Cardinals appeared that they would be able to run out most of the clock. However, on the first down play, Rashard Mendenhall fumbled which set the Texans up at the 5-yard line. Case Keenum hit Andre Johnson for a touchdown on a third down play that withstood review as Houston was able to get within three. Both teams would have the ball again, but no additional scoring was added as those on Arizona early won, while those on the Cardinals late lost, though many pushed in between.

Denver Broncos (-7) 28, San Diego Chargers 20: The Broncos took a 28-6 lead in this AFC West clash early in the third quarter, but the Chargers would battle back, cutting the lead to just 28-20 with over 10 minutes to go. Momentum had swung as the Broncos had to punt back to San Diego on the next possession and San Diego picked up two first downs to approach midfield. The Chargers went backwards from there and facing fourth and long, they punted with two timeouts left and over three minutes to go. Denver quickly made two first downs and a key penalty burned the Chargers as they did not see the ball again and fell just a point short of the spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2 ½) 22, Miami Dolphins 19: Looking for its first win of the season, Tampa Bay stormed out to a 15-0 lead against Miami Monday night, though they did lose running back Mike James to injury. In a difficult week, the Dolphins battled back and had a 16-15 lead late in the third quarter, though they missed on the two-point conversion. A familiar feeling sunk in for the Buccaneers as down one, Mike Glennon was intercepted to give Miami the ball right back at the Tampa Bay seven-yard line. The Tampa Bay defense held as the Dolphins settled for a short kick to lead by four, past the spread but leaving the Buccaneers still in the game heading into the fourth quarter. It all started to work again for the Tampa Bay offense as they Buccaneers went 80 yards in nine plays to take a 22-19 lead. Miami had the ball twice more in the game, but the Tampa Bay defense stepped up with several big plays to seal the first win of the season.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 11

November 12, 2013

Thursday, Nov. 14 - NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans Colts 7-3 vs. line last 10 as reg.-season visitor and covers after last 7 SU losses. Tennessee "over" 5-1 last six at home. Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Sunday, Nov. 17 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Falcons no covers last three or 6 of last 7 TY. Falcons 0-4 vs. line away TY, also "over" 7-4 last 11 since late 2012. Bucs 3-6 vs. line TY and 4-10-1 last 15 on board, though covers in last two. Bucs "over" last five in 2013. Slight to Bucs and "over," based on Falcons' woes and "totals" trends.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Jets have won 7 of last 8 SU vs. Bills and 6-2 vs. line in those games. Bills 4-1 vs. line TY at Orchard Park. "Overs" 5-2 last seven in series. "Over" and slight to Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers Steel 3-6 vs. line TY, 4-9 last 13 since late 2012. Steel also "under" 13-2 last 15 at Heinz Field. "Under" and slight to Lions, based on recent Steeler trends.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles Birds "over" 11-5 last 16 since mid 2012. Shan "over" 10-4 in reg.-season games last 14 since mid 2013. Birds no covers last 12 at Linc! Redskins and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears Bears "over" 7-3 TY, "over" 9-3 since late 2012. Bears 0-4-1 vs. line at Soldier Field TY. Ravens only 1-6 vs. line last seven as reg.-season visitor (1-4 TY). Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals Brownies 5-2 vs. line last 7 TY. Bengals have covered last five at Paul Brown Stadium since late LY. Cleveland 6-2-1 vs. line last 9 in series. Slight to Browns, based on team trends.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans Texans 1-7 vs. line TY, 0-4 at home, also 4-0 "over" at Reliant Stadium TY. Raiders "under" 12-4 since mid 2012. Slight to "over," based on recent Texans' home "totals" trends.

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars Jags 2-7 vs. line TY and "under" 10-2 last 12 as host. Big Red 6-3-1 last 10 on board since late LY. "Under" and Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.


Sunday, Nov. 17 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins Bolts "over" only 2-3 away TY but "over" 16-7 last 23 away. Miami 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Slight to "over," based on Bolts "totals" trends.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks Pete Carroll 2-4 vs. line last 6 TY after 16-4-1 vs. line previous 21 games. Seahawks also "over" 14-7 last 21 since early 2012. Seattle still 9-3 vs. spread last 12 at home despite non-covers last two as host. Vikes "over" 7-1 TY and 8-1 last nine reg.-season games. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and extended team trends.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints Saints have won and covered last 13 at home with Sean Payton on sidelines (2011, '13). But Harbaugh 30-14-2 vs. line with SF since 2011, also won and covered last two years vs. New Orleans (playoff thriller in 2011). Niners also "over" 12-3 last 15 since late LY. Saints "over" 9-5 last 14 at Superdome. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants G-Men have covered three of last four TY and have also won and covered last two vs. Pack. GB 1-5 vs. line last six away. Giants, based on team trends.


Sunday, Nov. 17 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Broncos "over" 8-1 TY, now "over" 44-19 last 63 since late 2009. Although last five "under" vs. Chiefs and Andy Reid "under" 7-2 TY. Chiefs 4-0 vs. line away in 2013. "Over," based on Broncos' "totals" trends.


Monday, Nov. 18 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers Belichick has won and covered last two and three of last four TY, although Carolina on 5-0 SU and spread run. Belichick "over" 3-1 last 4 as Patriots reignited "over" trend that temporarily disappeared at start of season when "under"4-1 first five. Pats now "over" 42-20-1 since late in 2009. "Over," based on extended Pats "totals" trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats

November 13, 2013

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings…

As The Noose Tightens

November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race. College Football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Basketball tip off new campaigns. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value aplenty abounds.

Our focus in the world of College Football begins to center around postseason bowl games during turkey month. In particular, we like to zero in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.

This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated college football teams playing on the regular season road from “Game 10” on out are 99-34-1 SU and 57-67-2 ATS. Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season nearly one-third of the time. A warning signal has been sounded for Alabama and Ohio State this week.

Pair them up against an under the radar opponent who won 8 or fewer games last season and watch them immediately play down to the level of the opposition as they dip to 6-21 ATS. Bring these same guys in off a win of 20 or more points and they have a difficult time getting their head through the door, going just 3-19 ATS.

Both the Crimson Tide and the Buckeyes look to meet their financial maker this week.

Alabama at Mississippi State
Ohio State at Illinois

Down The Stretch

Its stretch-run time in college football and with it a list of teams that have been either moneymakers or money breakers at this stage of the season.

From my powerful database, here is how various teams have fared of late from Game Ten out during the regular season heading in to this year. As usual, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) with a minimum five occurrences.

Best Dogs: Arizona 11-1, Boston College 7-1, Memphis 7-1, San Jose State 6-0, Virginia Tech 6-1 and West Virginia 9-1.

Worst Dogs: Air Force 0-8, Michigan 0-5-1, Middle Tennessee State 1-9, Oklahoma State 1-10-1 and Texas Tech 1-5.

Best Favorites: Arkansas 7-0, Arkansas State 5-0, Baylor 5-0, Kansas 6-1, Middle Tennessee State 9-1, Oregon State 5-1, Troy 7-0 and UCLA 5-1.

Worst Favorites: Arizona 1-11, Boise State 0-8, Florida State 1-6, Navy 0-5, Louisville 1-5, Oklahoma 1-5, UAB 1-5 and Utah 0-5.

Note: See our ‘Stat Of The Week’ below for the crème de la crème of this study.

Pennzoil Plays

Fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games has proven to be a long-term winning investment.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 17-19 ATS overall this season, including 12-13 in CFB and 5-6 in the NFL.

This week’s plays would be against…

NCAAFB: Central Michigan, Colorado, Kent State, West Virginia
NFL: Atlanta

Overwhelming

As we alluded to here last week, OVER players have been taking down the cash in non-conference games this season.

After yet another unassailable 4-0 performance last week, non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 35-11 OVER this season, including a bookie busting 11-0 the last three weeks.

This week’s potential non-conference OVERS look to be:

Detroit at Pittsburgh
Baltimore at Chicago
Arizona at Jacksonville
New England at Carolina (MNF)

Stat of The Week

The underdog in Arizona Wildcats football games is 22-2 ATS from “Game 10” out during the regular season.

[StarDust Bum]

Colts at Titans

November 13, 2013

Both the Colts and Titans are coming off embarrassing home losses last week in different fashion, as the two AFC South rivals hook up in Nashville to kick off Week 11. Indianapolis is still in control of the division at 6-3, while Tennessee is within striking distance at 4-5, but the Titans need a victory to have a reasonable shot to possibly win the AFC South.

St. Louis blindsided Indianapolis this past Sunday with a fumble return for a score and a punt return for a touchdown in the first 20 minutes. The Rams led the Colts, 28-0 at halftime, while cruising to a 38-0 advantage in the second half. Indianapolis avoided a shutout with an Andrew Luck touchdown pass and a two-point conversion, but the Colts suffered their third loss of the season, 38-8. St. Louis cashed outright as 7 ½-point road underdogs, while intercepting Luck three times.

The Titans lost by only two points, but it came at the expense of the previously winless Jaguars. Tennessee fell behind Jacksonville as 11 ½-point home favorites, 13-0, but rallied back to trail, 22-20 with four minutes remaining. However, a fumble return for a touchdown gave Jacksonville back a nine-point lead, while Tennessee scored a late touchdown to cut the game to 29-27, which proved to be the final.

Mike Munchak's squad started the season at 3-1, but the Titans have been exposed with losses in four of their last five games. Three of those defeats came at LP Field, as Tennessee has allowed at least 26 points in each of those home losses, resulting in three 'overs.' Even though the Titans are two games back of the Colts in the AFC South, Tennessee has yet to win a division contest in two tries, as a loss to Indianapolis would put Tennessee at a huge disadvantage to claim the division title.

Indianapolis has done a solid job bouncing back from a loss the first two times around this season. Chuck Pagano's club lost to Miami in Week 2, but destroyed San Francisco on the road the following week, 27-7. The Colts' offense struggled in a Week 6 setback at San Diego, but Indianapolis took care of business against previously unbeaten Denver, 39-33. However, each victory off the defeat came in the underdog role, as the Colts are short favorites on Thursday night.

Last season, the Colts swept the season series from the Titans, as each victory came by less than six points. In the first meeting in Nashville, Luck moved the Colts down the field in the final four minutes of regulation to tie the contest at 13-13. The former top pick hit Vick Ballard for a 16-yard touchdown in overtime to lift Indianapolis to a 19-13 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs.

In the next matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts needed another rally, as Indianapolis trailed by as many as 13 points in the third quarter. However, the Colts returned a Jake Locker interception for a touchdown and Adam Vinatieri kicked a pair of field goals to vault Indianapolis past Tennessee, 27-23 as 3 ½-point home favorites. This game barely finished 'over' the total of 47 thanks to a pair of defensive scores.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says this could be the last stand for Tennessee, "With Locker done, the Titans are going to have to rally around Ryan Fitzpatrick if they're going to be a factor in the AFC playoff race. Having lost to the Jaguars at home, you have to wonder whether guys will rally around the backup or fold up and quit on the season. After a flat effort against St. Louis, the Colts will surely be ready to play as they look to lock up the AFC South on the road. Whether the Titans show up remains to be seen, and Munchak's job as head coach probably hangs in the balance as his team takes the Thursday night stage. It's on him to get his football team to turn the page."

Locker suffered a season-ending foot injury in the loss to Jacksonville, the second major injury the former University of Washington quarterback has suffered this season. In two games started by Fitzpatrick, the Titans scored a total of 30 points in losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks, who are a combined 18-1 on the season.

The Colts are listed as three-point road 'chalk,' while the total is set at 42 ½. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on the NFL Network.

[StarDust Bum]

AFC-NFC Over Trend (77%)

November 18, 2013

Trending Over

VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence brought this trend to our attention in his weekly "Inside the Stats" pieces on VegasInsider.com. We've kept a tally of the trend and it's been very profitable this season.

Including Sunday's results, there have been 49 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 38-11 (77%) in those games, which includes a 14-0 record the past three weeks.

In Week 11, the first three matchups saw the 'over' cash.

Detroit 27 at Pittsburgh 37 – Over 45 ½

Baltimore 20 at Chicago 23 -- Over 41

Arizona 27 at Jacksonville 14 - Over 40 ½

The last AFC-NFC matchup takes place on Monday when Carolina hosts New England.

The total opened at 44 and has been pushed up to 47.

Carolina (5-3-1) and New England (5-4) have both leaned to the 'under' this season.

Prior to last week's 'over' result between Tampa Bay and Miami, the 'under' had cashed in four straight games on Monday. The 'over' has gone 6-5 on Monday Night Football this season.

Chris David, who provides a weekly Total Talk column on VegasInsider.com, offered up his quick thoughts on the AFC-NFC trend and the MNF matchup.

He explained, "Like I said last Monday, I'm amazed that this total trend continues to cash. I'm a little hesitant to bet against the trend right now but I do believe it should be part of your handicapping for the rest of the season."

"Similar to the Chiefs-Broncos matchup, this game pits offense versus defense. Denver captured a 27-17 win and the 'under' (49) cashed as the game slowed down in the second-half. The Patriots offense (26 PPG) haven’t been as explosive as past seasons but they can still score and it seems like they're getting healthy. On the other side, the Panthers defense (12.8 PPG) has been lights out albeit against offensive units that have struggled."

"I did find a solid angle on New England for this matchup and it involves rest. The Patriots are coming off their bye week and bettors should be aware that the team is 9-1 in its last 10 regular season games with rest. During this span, the Patriots have been held under 20 points once and they put up 27 or more points six times."

"Also, New England is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread versus the NFC South this season, defeating Tampa Bay (23-3), Atlanta (30-23) and New Orleans (30-27). The ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. This will be Carolina's second game agaisnt the AFC East this season as it lost at Buffalo (24-23) on Sept. 15 in a game they collapsed down the stretch."

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Patriots at Panthers

November 18, 2013


The Panthers have been notorious slow starters since Cam Newton was the top draft pick in 2011. That trend continued to begin this season, as Carolina lost a pair of close contests to Seattle and Buffalo. However, Newton and the Panthers are finally living up to the hype as Carolina is riding a five-game winning streak as New England heads to Charlotte tonight.

Carolina's offense has lifted them in its six victories this season, scoring at least 30 points five times, but last Sunday's effort at San Francisco proved even more. The Panthers held off the 49ers, 10-9 at Candlestick Park as six-point road underdogs, as Carolina overcame a 9-0 deficit. Ron Rivera's defense limited San Francisco to just 151 yards of offense and three field goals. In all six wins, the Panthers have given up 15 points or less, including a combined 32 points in the last three road victories.

The Patriots are fresh off the bye week after scoring a season-high 55 points in a 55-31 trouncing of the Steelers. New England dropped 28 points in fourth quarter to cash as 5 ½-point home favorites, as Tom Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns. Three different Patriots' receivers hauled in at least 100 yards, while Stevan Ridley paced the New England ground game with a season-best 115 yards rushing.

New England leads the AFC East with a 7-2 record, but the Patriots have been an average squad away from Foxboro with a 2-2 mark. Since winning at Buffalo and Atlanta, the Patriots have lost each of their last two road contests, including an overtime setback against the Jets in Week 7. Bill Belichick's squad has failed to cash in three road favorite opportunities this season, but knocked off the Falcons as three-point away 'dogs in Week 4.

Since a 12-7 home defeat to Seattle in the season opener, Carolina has dominated in each of its last three home contests, winning each time by at least 15 points. However, five of six wins by the Panthers this season have come against teams that currently own records below .500, with the lone victory against a winning team coming at San Francisco last Sunday.

The last time these teams met up in 2009, the Patriots held off the Panthers, 20-10 at Gillette Stadium. Carolina grabbed the road cover as 12 ½-point underdogs, limiting Brady to just 192 yards passing. New England is making its first trip to Charlotte since 2005, when the Panthers knocked off the Patriots as short home 'dogs, 27-17.

The Patriots are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against the NFC South this season, after putting together a 1-3 SU/ATS mark in interconference play last season. Carolina has played just one AFC opponent this season, giving up a touchdown in the final minute in a 24-23 defeat at Buffalo in Week 2. In 2012, the Panthers split four games within the AFC West, including a 1-1 mark at Bank of America Stadium.

Both teams are 5-4 to the 'under' this season, as the Panthers have cashed three of four 'unders' at home. The defense has limited all four opponents at home to 15 points or less, as Carolina is seeing its highest total of 2013 tonight. The Patriots are 2-2 to the 'over' on the highway, as New England is 6-0 to the 'over' the last six road games against the NFC.

New England is making its Monday night debut this season, as the Patriots have won five consecutive Monday games since 2010. In this span, New England has put up at least 34 points each time, with each victory coming by 14 points or more. Newton is making his second Monday night start, as the Panthers dominated the Eagles last November, 30-22 as three-point road favorites.

Carolina is listed as three-point home favorites tonight, with the total set at 47. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Bank of America Stadium and can be seen on ESPN.

Early Week 12 notes:

-- Of the eight Sunday games that have lines displayed, all eight of those home teams are listed as favorites. Only six contests involve division opponents, led off by New Orleans visiting Atlanta on Thursday night. The Saints opened up as 7 ½-point favorites at the Georgia Dome, the first time New Orleans is laying points in Atlanta since 2009.

-- Three games take place between teams that are currently .500 or above. Miami hosts Carolina, Indianapolis travels to Arizona, and Denver heads to New England. Meanwhile, five squads below .500 are listed as home favorites, which include the Ravens (vs. Steelers), Giants (vs. Cowboys), Raiders (vs. Titans), Browns (vs. Steelers), and Texans (vs. Jaguars).

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Most popular, least popular picks in the LVH Super Contest, where 1,034 contestants pick five games each week of the NFL season........they paid $1,500 each to be in this contest, by the way.

Most pop. (19-44-2 vs spread)

1) Saints 416 - T
2) Chiefs 307
3) Patriots 272
4) Chargers 245 - L
5) Jets 214 - L
6) Bengals 213 - W

Least popular (34-30-2)

29) Vikings 79 - L
28) Falcons 86 - L
27) Jaguars 96 - L
26) Ravens 105 - T
25) Giants 111 - W
24) Dolphins 117 - W


*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday......

13) Bills 37, Jets 14-- WLWLWLWLWL; Jets are first NFL team ever to start its season by alternating wins/losses for their first ten games. QB Smith was 8-23 passing and was relieved by Matt Simms on a windy day. K Nick Folk even missed a FG, ending a streak of 23 straight made FGs.

12) Buccaneers 41, Falcons 28-- Tampa Bay may be 2-8, but they led their last three games 21-0/15-0/24-6, all in the first half. If I didn't know better, I'd swear the Falcons are tanking games, thats how bad they've been playing.

11) Steelers 37, Lions 27-- Detroit scored 27 points in second quarter, led 27-20 at halftime....then never scored again. Lions' second half output: five drives, 30 plays, 67 yards- they gained 274 yards in second quarter alone. Steelers need to lose their dreadful throwback uniforms- simply hideous.

10) Eagles 24, Redskins 16-- Philly snapped a 10-game home losing streak (and 12-game home streak vs spread) by racing out to 24-0 lead, then hanging on for dear life. RGIII threw an awful INT on last series, with Skins driving to score and tie the game. Philly gets to its bye week at 6-5.

9) Dolphins 20, Chargers 16-- San Diego was penalized 10 times for 76 yards; Miami had three 5-yard penalties, thats it-- marginal roughing passer call nullified a Dolphin fumble in red zone. Dolphins had 104 rushing yards after having two rushing yards in their Monday loss to Tampa Bay.

8) Bears 23, Ravens 20 OT-- Baltimore led 10-0 before game was delayed 2+ hours by bad weather; Flacco threw a pick-6 after the delay as teams went back and forth on a sloppy field. McCown is playing well enough to create doubt in some Bear fans minds as to who the #1 QB should be.

7) Bengals 41, Browns 20-- Cincy scored a defensive TD and a special teams TD within 0:31 of each other in the second quarter, overcoming an early 13-0 deficit. Bengals scored 31 points in the second quarter. Teams combined to convert only 5 of 32 third down plays. Cleveland was in red zone three times, could manage only six points.

6) Raiders 28, Texans 23-- Houston lost its 8th game in row to a 3rd-string QB making his first NFL start; McGloin is just second Penn State QB to start an NFL game in the last 20 years-- he was 18-32/197 and looked better than he did during most of his career at Penn State.

5) Cardinals 27, Jaguars 14-- Carson Palmer threw for 419 yards, two TDs, which means one thing: he was playing against my hapless fantasy team. An unusually high nine teams didn't have a turnover this week; they all won. 6-4 Cardinals are doing well; 49ers' struggles give them hope for playoffs.

4) Seahawks 41, Vikings 20-- FOX's Tim Ryan called Russell Wilson the #3 QB in the NFC; who is he better than? I'd rather have Cam Newton than Wilson. Rodgers? No. Brees? Hell no. Manning? No. Romo? No. Stafford? No. Football analysts tend to suck up to the teams they've covering.

3) Giants 27, Packers 13-- Hall of Fame coach Bud Grant once said "Its not who you play. Its when you play them." Playing the Packers during the Scott Tolzien era is better than playing them when Aaron Rodgers plays. Giants are now 4-6 after starting the season 0-6- they play Dallas next week.

2) Saints 23, 49ers 20-- 11 teams Sunday had turnover ratios of +2 or better; all of them won except 49ers, who were outgained by 181 yards, but covered because the Saints didn't score a TD in the second half. It looks like the 49ers don't want Kaepernick running because he doesn't have a competent backup, but passing/running dual threat is what made Kaepernick special last year.

1) Broncos 27, Chiefs 17-- I'm reading now that Jack Del Rio wouldn't be a popular choice to be USC's next football coach. He's an alum, was an NFL head coach for nine years; doesn't he basically have same resume that Pete Carroll had? I know this: UCLA fans want Ed Orgeron hired full-time as the next USC coach- they see him as a recruiter, not a coach. We shall see.