The Bum's NFL November's POD'S Stats-News Etc. !

[StarDust Bum]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 10 of the NFL

- The Bengals defense gives up 18.4 points per game, but has now lost All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season. The total is currently at 45.

- The last three times these teams have met in Baltimore, the Ravens have gone 3-0 straight up, outscoring the Bengals by a combined score of 88-44.

- Reggie Bush gashed the Bears for 139 yards back in Week 4 and the Bears are ranked 29th against the run this season.

- Jay Cutler returns under center for the Bears since leaving in Week 7 with a groin injury. They average 28.6 points per game with Cutler in the lineup and have beaten the Lions five straight times at Soldier Field.

- Nick Foles has not been intercepted in 118 attempts this season and the Packers have only picked off QBs five times through eight games.

- Seneca Wallace is only the fourth QB to start for the Packers since 1992. He is 6-15 as a starter and has a career completion percentage of 59.1.

- Since rookie sensation Zac Stacey has joined the Rams backfield, he is averaging 113.2 yards per game, including 307 yards in the past 2 games. The Colts allow 124.9 rushing yards per game.

- The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record.

- Despite the Seahawks' strong start to the season, they are just 1-4 ATS in the last five games.

- Matt Ryan been picked off seven times for the Falcons in the last two games and the Seahawks are tied for the league lead in interceptions with 13.

- Darren McFadden has been ruled out for the Raiders this week, who are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

- The Giants rushing attack will look to get a boost to their as they welcome back RB Andre Brown, who broke his leg in the pre-season. The Giants only average 69.9 yards rushing per game this season, but they have out-rushed opponents the last 3 games and gone 3-0 ATS in that span.

- The Titans rushed for 198 yards last week versus the Rams. The Jaguars give up a league-worst 161.8 rushing yards per game.

- Both teams score a combined 32.4 points per game and the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings. The total is currently at 41.

- First round pick EJ Manuel will be back at QB for the Bills this week. The Bills ware 3-2 ATS with Manuel under center this season.

- The Steelers have given up 197 yards rushing to Oakland and England in the last two weeks. The Bills rank seventh in rushing.

- During the Panthers four game winning streak, Cam Newton has completed 74.8 percent of his passes and they are 4-0 ATS in that span.

- The 49ers are on a six-game winning streak and are 6-0 ATS over that stretch. The Niners have out-rushed the opponent in each game, but the Panthers own the second ranked rush defense this season.

- The Texans will try to avoid the longest losing streak in team history, and will have to do so without star running back Arian Foster and head coach Gary Kubiak. They are 1-7 ATS this season.

- The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS at home this season and 5-0 ATS in the last five games against teams with a losing record. The Cards are currently favored by a field goal.

- The Broncos are 8-0 O/U and are averaging a league best 42.9 points per game, the total is currently at 58 for their matchup against the San Diego Chargers.

- Chargers head coach and former Broncos offensive co-ordinator Mike McCoy has brought the magic back to Philip Rivers' game. Rivers averages 309.1 passing yards per game and the Broncos pass defense is ranked 30th in the league.

- The Cowboys have been up and down this year with 5-4 record, but are a league-best 7-2 ATS this season. Dez Bryant is expected to play despite a back injury.

- The Saints are 4-0 ATS at home this year and have only given up 12 points per game in that span behind Rob Ryan's defense.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 10

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Raiders at Giants: What bettors need to know
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Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-9.5, 44)

The New York Giants are rather shockingly still alive in the NFC East, where a two-game winning streak is cause for much celebration. The Giants will look to turn that into a three-game run when they host the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. New York is in last place in the East after its 0-6 start but is beginning a three-game homestand and has three divisional games remaining against the Washington Redskins (two) and the Dallas Cowboys (one).

The big change during the Giants’ two wins came on the defensive side of the ball, where they held Minnesota and Philadelphia to seven points apiece after surrendering an average of 34.8 during the 0-6 start. New York’s strength is in stopping the run while the Raiders do their best work on the ground with Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden. Oakland had plenty of trouble stropping the pass against its last NFC East opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, who threw for seven touchdowns in a 49-20 shellacking last week.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Giants are -9.5 home favorites. The total opened at 43.5 and moved up to 44.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid 50s with a 15 mph wind blowing across the field.

POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (+6.0) - Giants (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (3-5): Pryor leads the team in rushing with 485 yards and is 45 yards shy of passing Rich Gannon for the club record for a quarterback. Where Pryor struggles is in the passing game, with four interceptions and no touchdowns in the past two contests, and he could have his running attempts limited due to a knee sprain. Oakland is trying to move on from its terrible effort against the Eagles. “Absolutely, there’s no question there’s a bad taste in our mouth right now, but that one’s over with,” head coach Dennis Allen said. “That one’s done and I can promise you we’ll have a bunch of guys who will be ready to get back to work.”

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2-6): One of the reasons the defense was able to be so effective the last two games is because Eli Manning and the offense weren’t putting it into bad positions with turnovers. The former Super Bowl MVP threw 15 interceptions in the first six weeks but was not picked off in either of the two victories while focusing on shorter passing attempts. New York is ranked 30th in the league in rushing at an average of 69.9 yards but is expecting Andre Brown to make his season debut in the backfield after sitting out the first eight games with a broken leg.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.
* Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with a losing record.
* Under is 8-1 in Raiders last nine games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 4-1 in Giants last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Giants RB David Wilson (neck) was placed on season-ending injured reserve while RB Brandon Jacobs (hamstring) is questionable.

2. McFadden (hamstring) was limited to five carries against the Eagles and is questionable for Sunday.

3. New York WR Victor Cruz, who has 18 catches for 282 yards in two games against AFC opponents this season, sat out practice on Wednesday with a neck injury but expects to play Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Most popular, least popular picks in the LVH Super Contest, where 1,034 contestants pick five games each week of the NFL season........they paid $1,500 each to be in this contest, by the way.

Most pop. (14-40-1 vs spread)

1) Saints 380
2) 49ers 307
3) Cardinals 284
4) Bears 266
5) Chargers 232
6) Buccaneers 230

Least popular (30-23-1)

26) Colts 89
25) Dolphins 98
24) Raiders 109
23) Cowboys 112
T21) Jaguars 119
T21) Texans 119


*****

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday......

13) Vanderbilt 34, Florida 17-- Commodores hadn't beaten Florida since 1988, hadn't won in Gainesville since 1945, which is also the last year the Cubs played in the World Series. Go figure. Gators are 4-5 and look like a longshot to play in a bowl game. Yikes.

12) Texas 47, West Virginia 40 OT-- Mack Brown's first OT win; Horns converted 10-23 on 3rd down, have now won six games in row. McCoy had 283 passing yards and three TDs. Why is West Virginia in this league?

11) Duke 38, NC State 20-- Wolfpack led this game with 4:00 left, then the Blue Devils scored three TDs in a bizarre 0:26 span to move to 7-2. DeVon Edwards had a kick return for a TD and two pick-6's, in one of the greatest days any defensive player has ever had, ever.

10) Celtics 111, Heat 110-- Boston scored five points in last 0:01.6 to steal a game in South Beach and win its third game in a row after an 0-4 start. Not a lot of excuses for a team losing when they led by 4 with 0:03 left.

9) UCLA 31, Arizona 26-- Bruins' freshman Myles Jack ran ball six times for 120 yards; he's a defensive player!!! Kid was playing both ways like a damn high school player. Jack had eight tackles and a fumble recovery- very good. .

8) Alabama 38, LSU 17-- SEC coordinators make almost $1M a year; LSU had ball on 1-yard line with that kid Hill at RB, a future NFL star, and they give it to a fullback who fumbled and was never seen again for the rest of the night. Bama might've won anyway, but 7-0 would've been a nice start.

7) Pitt 28, Notre Dame 21-- If I ran NBC Sports and was throwing my cash at South Bend, I'd sure as hell want a better product than what they're putting out on field. 18-38 passing, in this day and age? They were lucky to beat the Naval Academy last week. Underdog is now 8-0-1 vs spread in this series.

6) Manhattan 99, LaSalle 90 (2 OT)-- Explorers have four starters back from LY's Sweet 16 team, so this is an excellent win for the Jaspers, picked to win the MAAC this winter. Manhattan made 12-27 shots behind the arc.

5) Pacers 96, Nets 91-- On the Nets TV commercials, "championship" gets said like every other second. Now they're 2-4 and Indiana in 7-0; doubt Indy touted themselves as league champs in their ad campaigns this fall.

4) Nebraska 17, Michigan 13-- Wolverines had minus-21 rushing yards, as sacks count as rushing attempts; in their last two games, Michigan, the team Bo Schembechler made famous, has minus-69 rushing yards. Oy.

3) San Diego State 34, San Jose State 30-- Nice comeback win for Aztecs, who trailed 30-20 with 8:00 left, but RECRUIT A KICKER!!!! They missed seven consecutive FGs and five straight PATs before finally making a PAT in 4th quarter. Its not that hard; go try out some soccer players.

2) Virginia Tech 42, Miami 24-- Hurricanes got beat twice by Florida State, once last week, again Saturday, as they ran ball for only 28 yards with star RB Johnson out for year (leg). Hokies outgained Miami 549-352 after losing to Duke/Boston College the last two weeks.

1) Texas A&M 51, Mississippi State 41-- Johnny Manziel is must-watch TV; kid was 30-39/446 yards, with three of nine incompletions picked off, so he is fun to watch and never dull- he takes chances. You watch Alabama play and then realize A&M lost to them 49-42. Very, very good player.

[StarDust Bum]

I will be coming up with my 4 team parlay of the week also


Sunday, November 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +1 500
Baltimore - Over 44 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +1 500
Chicago - Over 52 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET Green Bay +1 500
Green Bay - Over 47 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -7.5 500 POD # 3
Indianapolis - Under 43 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +3.5 500 POD # 2
Atlanta - Under 47 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +7.5 500 POD # 1
N.Y. Giants - Under 41.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +11.5 500
Tennessee - Under 42 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +3 500 POD # 1
Pittsburgh - Under 42.5 500

Carolina - 4:05 PM ET Carolina +5.5 500 POD # 1
San Francisco - Over 43.5 500

Houston - 4:25 PM ET Arizona -3 500 POD # b4
Arizona - Under 41.5 500

Denver - 4:25 PM ET San Diego +7 500 POD # 1
San Diego - Under 57.5 500


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Parlay Wager - 1 Parlay of 4 Teams
Ticket #*
Picks Odds Risking To Win
* For ticket number(s) go to Open Bets

NFL[207] BUFFALO +2½ 1.95

NFL[209] OAKLAND +7 1.91

NFL[219] CAROLINA +5 1.91

NFL[224] SAN DIEGO +7 1.87

1 Parlay of 4 Teams X $50 = $50 $615.16

[Udog]

Good luck, Bum! Have fun today!

[Kaptain]

good luck today BUM.....sad to say, we're opposite on several POD's....don't like that very much..thanks my BRUDDA

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Consensus Picks


November 10, 2013 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM St. Louis +7.5 1488 39.22% Indianapolis -7.5 2306 60.78% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville +11.5 1645 43.54% Tennessee -11.5 2133 56.46% View View

4:25 PM Houston +3 1627 43.56% Arizona -3 2108 56.44% View View

8:30 PM Dallas +6 1713 44.06% New Orleans -6 2175 55.94% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo +3 1596 44.15% Pittsburgh -3 2019 55.85% View View

4:05 PM Carolina +5.5 1700 44.27% San Francisco -5.5 2140 55.73% View View

1:00 PM Philadelphia -1 1990 52.44% Green Bay +1 1805 47.56% View View

1:00 PM Oakland +7.5 2046 53.27% N.Y. Giants -7.5 1795 46.73% View View

1:00 PM Cincinnati +1 2269 55.18% Baltimore -1 1843 44.82% View View

1:00 PM Detroit +1 1759 55.84% Chicago -1 1391 44.16% View View

1:00 PM Seattle -3.5 2527 63.35% Atlanta +3.5 1462 36.65% View View

4:25 PM Denver -7 2539 64.97% San Diego +7 1369 35.03% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Cincinnati 44 1152 43.00% Baltimore 44 1527 57.00% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo 42.5 1256 51.56% Pittsburgh 42.5 1180 48.44% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville 42 1373 53.16% Tennessee 42 1210 46.84% View View

1:00 PM Seattle 47 1485 56.12% Atlanta 47 1161 43.88% View View

1:00 PM Philadelphia 47 1487 57.57% Green Bay 47 1096 42.43% View View

1:00 PM Detroit 52 1225 57.67% Chicago 52 899 42.33% View View

4:25 PM Houston 41.5 1502 60.98% Arizona 41.5 961 39.02% View View

1:00 PM St. Louis 43 1650 62.83% Indianapolis 43 976 37.17% View View

4:05 PM Carolina 43.5 1797 66.51% San Francisco 43.5 905 33.49% View View

1:00 PM Oakland 41.5 1851 68.73% N.Y. Giants 41.5 842 31.27% View View

4:25 PM Denver 57.5 2100 74.13% San Diego 57.5 733 25.87% View View

8:30 PM Dallas 53.5 2246 76.89% New Orleans 53.5 675 23.11% View View

[StarDust Bum]

Dallas at New Orleans

November 8, 2013


DALLAS COWBOYS (5-4) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New Orleans -7 & 54.5
Opening Line & Total: Saints -7 & 53.5

The Saints look to remain undefeated in the Superdome when they host the Cowboys on Sunday night.

Dallas is coming off of a tight 27-23 home victory over the Vikings, but New Orleans was unable to beat the Jets on the road. The Cowboys are just 1-3 SU on the road, but 3-1 ATS, and have another tough matchup against the Saints who are 4-0 (SU and ATS) in their own building and beating visitors by 17.2 PPG.

Last season, New Orleans earned a 34-31 win as an underdog in Dallas in a game that featured 400+ passing yards for each team. That continues the Saints' dominance in this series where they are 7-2 (SU and ATS) versus the Cowboys since 1994, including 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) at home. New Orleans is also 17-4 ATS in home games over the past three seasons, including 11-1 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less. However, Dallas has been a great underdog wager under Jason Garrett, going 7-1 ATS when getting between 3.5 points and 9.5 points from the lines.

The Cowboys defense should benefit from the return of DE DeMarcus Ware (quad), but WR Miles Austin (hamstring) is doubtful to play for the Cowboys. Both SS Roman Harper (knee) and WR Marques Colston (knee) could be out for the Saints, but RB Darren Sproles (concussion) has already returned to practice and should play on Sunday night.

With just 35 seconds remaining against the Vikings last week, QB Tony Romo connected with WR Dwayne Harris for a game-winning touchdown. Romo is having a great season, throwing for 2,553 yards (7.4 YPA), 20 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He also lit up New Orleans last year with 416 passing yards (9.7 YPA) and 4 TD. WR Dez Bryant had 224 of those yards and two scores on nine receptions (24.9 avg.), but he caught just six passes for 64 yards last week. With the Vikings keeping Bryant in check, Romo turned to his old go-to pass catcher in TE Jason Witten, who finished with eight receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown in the win.

The Cowboys ran a franchise-low eight times in the game, and will need to get back to using RB DeMarco Murray against the Saints. Murray is averaging 4.8 yards per carry this season and in his four rushing attempts against the Vikings, he ran for 31 yards (7.8 YPC). He also caught six passes out of the backfield for 19 yards.

The Dallas defense will have a tough time stopping Saints QB Drew Brees on Sunday if they don’t tweak some things. The club is allowing 305.2 YPG through the air (2nd-worst in NFL) and Brees leads the Saints offense that is third in the league with 317.6 passing YPG. The return of DE DeMarcus Ware (115 career sacks) should help put more pressure on Brees.

New Orleans suffered a disappointing 26-20 loss to the Jets last week, but now Drew Brees gets a dream matchup with a Cowboys defense that really struggles against the pass. That was certainly the case when these teams met last year when Brees completed 37-of-53 passes (70%) for 446 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Brees has thrown for 2,672 yards, 21 touchdowns and just seven interceptions this season, but two of these picks came in last week's defeat. TE Jimmy Graham, who caught two touchdowns as part of 116 yards against the Jets, remains his go-to option, especially with both RB Darren Sproles (concussion) and WR Marques Colston (knee) slowed by injury.

The Saints would like to have both Sproles and Colston back after they each tallied more than 100 receiving yards in last year's win in Dallas. But Graham, who had 88 receiving yards in the 2012 meeting, has been completely dominant this season, catching 49 passes for 746 yards and an NFL-best 10 touchdowns. The Saints will need to find a way to get their ground game going, as they rushed for just 41 yards in the loss to the Jets.

New Orleans’ defense doesn’t have a favorable matchup against Tony Romo and the explosive Cowboys offense, but they have done an excellent job against the pass so far, allowing just 211.9 yards per game through the air (5th in NFL) and a lot of the credit should be given to Rob Ryan, the team’s defensive coordinator. The Saints defense was miserable last season, and is now one of the league’s best in terms of defending third downs (34.7%, 6th in NFL) which has prevented long drives and led to its meager 27:05 time of possession on defense (2nd-best in league). SS Roman Harper would be a tough loss for New Orleans, however, as it will need all of its secondary players available to defeat pass-happy Dallas.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, November 11

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Sunday Night Football betting: Cowboys at Saints
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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 53.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have had trouble away from home and face a difficult road test when they visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. New Orleans is undefeated at home and leads the NFC South by one game, but is coming off an ugly offensive performance in a 26-20 defeat at the New York Jets last week. The game features a juicy subplot - Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan gets to face the team that fired him from the same position after last season.

Dallas owns a one-game lead atop the NFC East following a last-minute, come-from-behind victory over the Minnesota Vikings last week. It marked another close call for the Cowboys, who have lost three of their four games by a combined five points. Dallas has dropped two straight and seven of eight against the Saints, including a 34-31 overtime home loss in December 2012 - a game in which New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

LINE: The Saints opened at -7 and have been bet down to -6.5. The total opened at 52.5 and is up to 53.5.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-4): Tony Romo threw for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week to rally the Cowboys, his third 300-yard game in the past five as the running game continues to struggle. Running back DeMarco Murray returned from a two-game injury absence but had only four carries for 31 yards as the Cowboys ran the ball a franchise-low nine times. Romo had a huge game in last season's loss to New Orleans, throwing for 416 yards and four touchdown passes. Dez Bryant had nine receptions for a career-best 224 yards and a pair of scores in that game, but he missed practice Wednesday due to back tightness and was limited in Thursday's session.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (6-2): New Orleans has lost two of three following a 5-0 start and part of the problem is an inability to run the ball while stopping the opponent from doing so. The Saints managed 41 yards on 13 carries and were gashed for 198 yards on the ground by the Jets. "We've been a little bit lopsided," New Orleans coach Sean Payton said. "Pass protection becomes more manageable when you're running the football." Tight end Jimmy Graham has two TD catches in four of his last five games despite battling a foot injury, and the passing game should be helped by the return of running back Darren Sproles, who suffered a concussion last week.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 11-4 in Cowboys last 15 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games on fieldturf.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees and Romo rank 2-3 in the league with 21 and 20 TD passes, respectively.

2. Dallas is 11-0 when Murray has at least 18 carries.

3. Three-time Pro Bowl LB Jonathan Vilma (knee) was placed on season-ending injured reserve by the Saints just three days after making his season debut.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, November 11

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Tale of the Tape: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
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Two teams with shaky leads in their respective divisions face off Sunday night when the New Orleans Saints entertain the Dallas Cowboys.

This game features the second-highest total of the week, and with good reason - both offenses can put up points in bunches. The Cowboys come in with a one-game lead over the Philadelphia Eagles in the mediocre NFC East, while the Saints are up a game on hard-charging Carolina in the NFC South.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Cowboys find themselves in the middle of the pack in terms of total yards per game (342.8, 17th) thanks to a largely one-dimensional attack. Led by polarizing quarterback Tony Romo, Dallas is ninth in the NFL in average passing yards (267.1) while its 20 touchdowns through the air are third-most in the league. The run game has been far less successful, ranked 27th overall in yards per contest (75.7) with just five touchdowns and 3.7 yards per attempt.

The Saints have had one of the league's premier pass attacks for years - and that trend has continued through the first half of this season. New Orleans ranks third in the NFL with 315.6 passing yards per game - a fraction behind the second-place Detroit Lions - and has the second-most TDs in the NFL (21). Like Dallas, the Saints have had trouble generating much offense on the ground, ranking one spot ahead of the Cowboys at 79.8 yards per game.

Edge: New Orleans


Defense

If Saints quarterback Drew Brees isn't harassed by the Dallas pass rush, it could be a long day for the Cowboys. The NFC East leaders boast one of the worst pass defenses in football, allowing the second-highest average yard total (305.2) while surrendering a whopping 16 touchdowns. Dallas does have two things working for it: one of the highest interception totals in the NFL (12) and a decent run defense (114 yards against per game, 17th).

For all the grief New Orleans has taken over its past defensive struggles, the critics have rightfully fallen silent so far in 2013. The Saints have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards in the league (1,695) while limiting opponents to eight touchdowns against nine interceptions. New Orleans is also among the NFL leaders with 26 sacks, but remains relatively easy to run against - the Saints are allowing the eight-most yards per game on the ground (121.3).

Edge: New Orleans


Special Teams

Dallas has the best kickoff return average in the NFL at 31.1 yards per attempt, and sits tied with the Chicago Bears for third in punt-return average (14.3). The Cowboys also excel in the return game, ranked 12th in average kickoff yardage (21.5) and 13th in yards per punt return (7.6). Veteran kicker Dan Bailey has had a strong year to date - going 16-for-18 on field-goal attempts - and connected from 41 and 44 yards out in last week's narrow victory over Minnesota.

New Orleans' return team pales in comparison to that of the Cowboys, averaging the third-fewest yards per kick return (20.4) while ranking 18th in punt return average (7.8). The Saints haven't defended kick returns well - allowing a whopping 26.4 yards per attempt - but have limited foes to just 5.9 yards per punt return on 12 opportunities. Kicker Garrett Hartley has struggled from long-range, making just 7-of-11 attempts from at least 40 yards out.

Edge: Dallas


Notable Quotable

"They're probably pretty similar. Calvin's probably a bit faster but Graham is probably better at using his body, shielding you off because he is so big. He's a tough matchup because of his size and his speed. He can jump and run and he's got some shiftiness to him. So we're going to have to find him before the play and play accordingly." - Cowboys S Jeff Heath, comparing Saints TE Jimmy Graham to Detroit Lions star WR Calvin Johnson

"It's frustrating ... and it's everybody. On one play, it's not blocked correctly, on the next one it's not hitting the right hole ... it's obviously frustrating, especially as a lineman, protecting a guy like Drew Brees and becoming one-dimensional. That's not a good situation for us." - Saints T Zach Strief on his team's struggles running the ball

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night POD'S:


Dallas - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -6 500 POD # 1

New Orleans - Over 54 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, November 11

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Monday Night Football betting: Dolphins at Buccaneers
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Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 41)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the NFL's poster boys for Team Discord for much of the season, but the Miami Dolphins have seized that mantle in the midst of an explosive soap opera developing in South Beach. The Dolphins will try to overcome a highly publicized rift by offensive linemen Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin when they visit the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. “The whole thing is kind of mind-blowing to me," Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill said.

The Dolphins will have 10 days between games since a stunning 22-20 overtime victory against Cincinnati that snapped a four-game losing streak, but new developments continue to emerge in the ongoing saga in which Martin left the team after accusing Incognito of repeated bullying. Tampa Bay is dealing with another gut-wrenching loss, blowing a 21-point lead in Seattle last week. Coach Greg Schiano has been on the hot seat amid reports that several players are unhappy with his demanding style

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Tampa Bay opened at +3.5 home dogs, but have been bet up to +1. The total has move up slightly from 40.5 to 41.

WEATHER: Temperature will be in the mid 70s with a 7 percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+3.0) - Tampa Bay (7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -1

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-4): Incognito has been suspended and Martin is on leave while the league goes forward with an investigation, leaving the players to deal with the fallout while attempting to stay in the postseason hunt. The most pressing on-field question for Miami is how to overcome the loss of 40 percent of an offensive line that has already allowed Tannehill to be a sacked a league-high 35 times. The Dolphins may have salvaged their season by rallying to beat Cincinnati after blowing a 14-point second-half lead for the second consecutive week. Running back Lamar Miller is coming off his first 100-yard day for Miami, which is averaging 156.5 yards rushing in the past two games.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-8): Tampa Bay's 27-24 overtime loss in Seattle was its fourth defeat by three or fewer points this season, prompting Schiano to say his squad did a lot of "things we can build off." Running back Doug Martin, who rushed for 1,454 yards as a rookie last season, has been sidelined with a torn labrum since Oct. 20 and could be headed to injured reserve. Rookie Mike James has been a capable replacement, running for a career-high 158 yards in last week's loss while rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has thrown five touchdown passes and zero interceptions over his past three games.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in thier last four Monday night games.
* Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Dolphins last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four games following a straight up loss.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Dolphins DE Cameron Wake had three sacks against the Bengals, including a game-winning safety in OT.

2. The Buccaneers rank 31st in scoring (15.5 points) and total offense (304.3 yards) per game.

3. Miami hasn't won in Tampa Bay since October 1988.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, November 11

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Tale of the Tape: Dolphins at Buccaneers
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Football fans will be treated to an all-Florida battle as the Miami Dolphins visit the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this week's Monday nighter.

The Dolphins come into this one fresh off a 22-20 overtime win over the Cincinnati Bengals that halted a four-game losing skid and vaulted Miami back to the .500 mark for the season. Things are decidedly more dire in Tampa, where the Buccaneers find themselves the lone winless team left in the NFL.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Between quarterback Ryan Tannehill gaining a year of experience and the addition of wide receiver Mike Wallace, the Dolphins had high hopes for their offense coming into the season. So far, those expectations have not been met - Miami is generating just 315.3 total yards per game - among the worst averages in the league - and has produced only 11 passing touchdowns. The running game has improved in recent weeks, but still averages just 97.6 yards per contest.

Tampa Bay's pass attack has been one of the most anemic in the NFL no matter who has been at the helm. Josh Freeman's early-season struggles, combined with Mike Glennon's relative inexperience, have resulted in the Buccaneers averaging just 197 yards through the air - one of only three teams entering Week 10 to sit below the 200 mark. The running game has been equally inept, producing 107.5 yards per outing but registering just one touchdown so far.

Edge: Miami


Defense

The Dolphins have bent but not broken when it comes to pass defense. Miami is surrendering 252 yards through the air per game - putting it in the middle of the pack - but has allowed just nine touchdowns while racking up 11 interceptions. The Dolphins haven't been nearly as effective in run defense, ranked in the bottom third of the league in yards allowed per game (116.5) while allowing nine rushing touchdowns and recovering just a pair of fumbles.

Despite having lost eight straight games to open the season the Buccaneers' pass defense actually hasn't been that bad. Tampa Bay is in the top third in fewest passing yards surrendered (241 per game) but has given up 15 touchdowns while snagging just eight interceptions. The run defense has also been respectable so far in 2013, limiting opponents to 107.5 yards per game and four yards per carry while giving up just four scores all season.

Edge: Tampa Bay


Special Teams

Miami's kick-return unit has been solid to date - averaging 25.2 yards per attempt - but the punt-return game has managed just 62 total yards on 12 chances. The Dolphins are surrendering 24.2 yards per kick return opportunity while holding foes to 8.8 yards per punt return. Rookie placekicker Caleb Sturgis has had an up-and-down season, connecting on just 13-of-18 field-goal attempts - including a 2-for-3 showing in last week's win over the Bengals.

Tampa Bay's return game has been another bright spot despite the winless stretch, averaging a robust 25.8 yards per kickoff return and 8.6 yards per punt return. Opponents are averaging a paltry 21.1 yards per kickoff return attempt versus the Buccaneers, but have an 11.2-yard average on punt returns. Kicker Rian Lindell hasn't been busy, but has been solid when called upon, making 11-of-13 field-goal opportunities.

Edge: Tampa Bay


Notable Quotable

"We're definitely not beleaguered. At this point in the season we have eight winnable games ahead of us and we could have a very good second half of the season. We're definitely not focusing on the circus you guys have made in our locker room." - Dolphins OL Tyson Clabo, addressing the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin controversy

"I'm 0-8. That's enough on my back. On Monday, when everybody lines up, distractions go out the window ... that's just the way it is. Nobody cares about your problems when you get out there on that field." - Buccaneers OL Donald Penn when asked about the controversy surrounding the Dolphins

[StarDust Bum]

Trend leans to Miami on MNF

November 10, 2013


This week’s Monday Night Football matchup between Miami (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) and Tampa Bay (0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS) will receive extra attention this week and it’s certainly not for the two teams on the field

The Miami Dolphins will attempt to move past national headlines involving an alleged internal harassment between players, notably offensive linemen Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito. Martin has left the team for personal reasons and Incognito has been suspended indefinitely.

Looking to pile on Miami’s mess will be Tampa Bay, who is still searching for its first win of the season. The Buccaneers almost pulled off the biggest upset of the season last week but came up short to the Seahawks 27-24 as 16 ½-point road underdogs.

Combining the Bucs’ effort last week and the locker room issues for the Dolphins, some pundits are expecting Tampa Bay to capture its first victory of the season on Monday. That could easily happen but before you run to the betting counter and wager on Tampa Bay, make sure you’re aware of a very strong trend that’s been followed by many handicappers and bettors this season.

Play against any team in their “Next Game” after they played Seattle

If you’ve followed the above trend blindly, you would be looking at a 7-1 record both straight up and against the spread.

The only team to post a win after playing Seattle this season was Arizona, who defeated the Falcons 27-13 at home in Week 8.

Another common theme with the losses has been the points allowed by the teams who just faced the Seahawks. In the eight games this season, the teams have given up an average of 26.9 points per game in the next game.

Miami opened as a 3 ½-point road favorite against Tampa Bay and most betting shops have dropped the number to 2 ½ as of late Sunday.

Week 1 - Carolina vs. Seattle
Next Game: Panthers lost at Buffalo, 24-23

Week 2 - San Francisco at Seattle
Next Game: 49ers lost at home to Colts, 29-3

Week 3 – Jacksonville at Seattle
Next Game: Jaguars lost to Colts, 37-3

Week 4 – Houston vs. Seattle
Next Game: Texans lost at 49ers, 34-3

Week 5 – Indianapolis at Seattle
Next Game: Colts lost at Chargers, 19-9

Week 6 – Tennessee at Seattle
Next Game: Titans lost at home to 49ers, 31-17

Week 7 –Arizona vs. Seattle
Next Game: Cardinals defeated Falcons at home, 27-13

Week 8 –St. Louis vs. Seattle
Next Game: Rams lost at home to Titans, 28-21

Week 9 – Tampa Bay at Seattle
Next Game: TBD

[StarDust Bum]

Bucs look for 1st win

November 11, 2013


MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-4) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (0-8)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Miami -2.5 & 41
Opening Line & Total: Dolphins -3.5 & 41.5

The Buccaneers will be going for their first win of the NFL season when they host the Dolphins on Monday night.

Tampa Bay jumped out to a 21-0 first quarter lead in Seattle last week and was still up 24-7 in the third quarter, but blew the lead and eventually lost 27-24 in overtime. Miami, on the other hand, defeated the Bengals on a game-winning overtime safety on Halloween night. However, all the news out of south Florida has been the alleged hazing incident of OG Richie Incognito, which forced OT Jonathan Martin to check into a hospital.

Despite the distraction, the Dolphins are still playing .500 football this season while the Buccaneers appear to be heading towards a very early draft pick in 2014. Tampa Bay is only 2-6 ATS this season, but is 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) against Miami since 1997. But over the past three seasons, the Bucs are 1-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three out of their past four games, and 4-16 ATS after two or more consecutive losses during that same timeframe.

On the bright side for Tampa Bay, the club is 50-31 ATS (62%) in November games since 1992. The Buccaneers will still be without top RB Doug Martin (shoulder), who is out indefinitely after tearing his labrum, while both teams have key wide receivers out for the year in Miami's Brandon Gibson (knee) and Tampa's Mike Williams (hamstring).

Miami improved to 4-4 SU with last week’s overtime victory over the Bengals. After gaining 156 rushing yards in New England, the Dolphins ran the ball effectively for a second straight week versus Cincinnati, racking up 157 yards on the ground behind 105 yards on 16 carries (6.6 YPC) from Lamar Miller. However, with the absence of the two starting linemen involved in the hazing incident (OG Richie Incognito and OT Jonathan Martin), the Miami O-Line is not in great shape right now.

QB Ryan Tannehill must do a better job against the Buccaneers than what he's done in the past five games, completing 57% of his passes for 1,150 yards (6.3 YPA), 7 TD and 7 INT. Last week, Tannehill was very accurate (71.4% completions) and threw no interceptions, but he also didn’t throw any touchdown passes while finishing with just 208 passing yards. The Dolphins need to do a better job of moving the ball as their 28th-ranked offense (315 total YPG) must be able to sustain more drives and improve its 28:30 time of possession (6th-worst in league). Miami has been quite effective in the red zone though with a 64.0% efficiency rate (6th-best in NFL).

The Dolphins defense has also been mediocre this year, allowing 252.3 yards per game through the air (22nd in NFL) and 116.5 yards per game on the ground (21st in NFL). However, star DE Cameron Wake showed that he's finally healthy last week with a monster performance of three sacks, a forced fumble and the game-winning safety in overtime. They will need him to provide a consistent pass rush to shut down a Tampa Bay offense that has struggled all season.

After blowing a 24-7 lead with just over 20 minutes to play versus the Seahawks, the Buccaneers are still searching for their first win of the season. Their strength is on defense where they allow just 240.5 passing yards per game (15th in NFL) and 107.5 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). Backed by a good secondary led by shutdown CB Darrelle Revis, the Bucs defense has not been the root of their problems.

The issues come on offense where the team averages only 15.5 PPG and 304 total YPG, which both rank second-worst in the NFL. Rookie QB Mike Glennon leads a passing attack that averages just 196.8 yards per game (2nd-worst in NFL) on a league-low 5.26 net yards per attempt. But Glennon has been a major upgrade from Josh Freeman, as the rookie has completed 60.3% of his passes for 1,165 yards, 8 TD and just 3 INT. With RB Doug Martin out indefinitely, rookie RB Mike James has stepped up nicely, rushing for 158 yards on 28 carries (5.6 YPC) last week.

This game is winnable for Tampa, but they must play mistake-free football like in Seattle when a +3 turnover margin nearly gave the 16-point underdogs a straight-up victory.