The Bum's NFL November's POD'S Stats-News Etc. !

[StarDust Bum]

Saints at Falcons

November 20, 2013


The Falcons were within one touchdown of making the Super Bowl last season, but Atlanta is just two wins above zero nearing Thanksgiving this season. Atlanta sits at the bottom of the NFC South with a 2-8 record, while being listed as a heavy home underdog against the division-leading Saints on Thursday night, as New Orleans is looking to set itself up for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.

The Saints start a stretch with four of the next five games away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, while heading to Seattle for an epic showdown in 11 days which may decide the top-seed in the NFC. Sean Payton's team picked up an important conference victory last Sunday against San Francisco, who suffered its second crushing defeat in New Orleans since February's Super Bowl defeat to Baltimore. The Niners were in line to grab the road win with a 20-17 lead late in the fourth quarter as San Francisco LB Ahmad Brooks sacked Saints' quarterback Drew Brees and caused a fumble. In spite of San Francisco recovering the fumble, Brooks was flagged for a personal foul and negating the turnover, even though the linebacker never hit Brees with his head.

New Orleans took advantage of the second chance by driving down to kick the game-tying field goal with two minutes remaining, then Garrett Hartley drilled the game-winner from 31 yards out to give the Saints a 23-20 triumph. The 49ers managed to cover as 3 ½-point road underdogs, but San Francisco backers felt like this team should have cashed outright. The two teams combined for just one touchdown in the second half, as the 'under' of 50 hit with little pressure.

It seems like each week the Falcons are hitting rock-bottom with every defeat, but Atlanta allowed a season-high 41 points to Tampa Bay this past Sunday. The Buccaneers picked up only their second victory of the season, equaling the Falcons in the win department with a 41-28 rout that wasn't even that close. Tampa Bay built a 38-6 lead in the third quarter, as Atlanta scored two late touchdowns to make the score closer, while Bobby Rainey rushed for a career-best 163 yards and two scores.

The Falcons have lost four straight games for the first time in the Mike Smith era, as the last skid of this length came back in 2007. Atlanta has yielded at least 27 points in its previous seven defeats, while the least amount of points given up by the Falcons in a loss came in the season-opening defeat at New Orleans.

The Saints rallied for a 23-17 home triumph to kick off the season at the Superdome, overcoming an early 10-0 deficit to the Falcons. Brees torched the Atlanta defense for 357 yards and two touchdowns, while Falcons' quarterback Matt Ryan put together the first of five 300-yard games on the season. New Orleans has won eight of the last 10 meetings with Atlanta since 2008, as the Saints are 3-1 the last four visits to the Georgia Dome.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says Atlanta won't give up in spite of its struggles, "You're starting to hear vocal support for Coach Smith from both management and key players, which means the Falcons haven't quit on him despite this nightmare season. Seeing that materialize on the field would help, too, especially on the heels of losing to Tampa. Atlanta would get up for playing New Orleans in two-hand touch at a company picnic, so if nothing else, you'll see a strong effort. The Saints can't afford to just show up, especially since they must overcome missing pieces on defense against a capable Ryan. This might wind up a blowout, but going in expecting the Falcons to just roll over against their primary NFC South rival would be a mistake."

From a totals perspective, the Saints have hit the 'over' in five of the last seven games, while Atlanta has eclipsed the 'over' in four of five home contests. The Falcons are involved in their second game with a total higher than 50 this season, as the opener at New Orleans went 'under' the total of 54 ½. The Saints are 2-2 to the 'over' in totals above 50, while scoring at least 26 points three times in this total range.

The Saints are listed as 9 ½-point road favorites, while the total is set between 53 and 53 ½. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from the Georgia Dome and can be seen on the NFL Network.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 12

November 19, 2013

Thursday, Nov. 21 - NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Falcons 1-7 vs. line last 8 TY. Saints only 1-3 vs. line away TY and home team is 8-1-1 vs. spread in N.O. games. Falcs "over" 6-1 last 7 at Georgia Dome, although "under" last three hosting Saints. Slight to "over" and Saints, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Nov. 24 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions Bucs have covered last three TY after dropping five in a row vs. line. Bucs still 2-5 vs. line last 7 away and 4-10-1 last 15 on board since late 2012. TB also "over" six in a row. Lions "over" 38-21-1 since late 2009. "Over" and slight to Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Jags 2-8 vs. line TY and 3-12 last 15 on board. Jags have also dropped 4 of last 5 spread decisions vs. Texans. But Houston 0-8 SU last eight and 2-8 vs. line TY. J'ville "over" 4-2 last 6 TY. Slight to "over" and Texans, based on "totals" and team trends.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Vikes "over" 9-1 first ten TY and "over" 10-1 last 11 reg.-season games. But Pack "under" in three since Aaron Rodgers' injury. Pack 6-2 vs. line last 8 in series. "Over," based on Vikings' "totals" trends.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs After Denver last Sunday night, KC 6-4 vs. line TY and "under" 8-2. Bolts "under" 32-16 last 48 since late in 2010 season. "Under" and slight to Chiefs, based on "totals" and team trends.

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins Cam has won and covered six straight TY. Dolphins going in opposite direction, 2-5 SU and vs. line last seven. Panthers, based on recent trends.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Steel 1-4 vs. line away TY, now 4-13 vs. number last 17 on road. Browns have covered 3 of last 4 meetings, and "under" last four in series. Steel "under" 22-10 last 31 in reg.-season games. Browns and "under," based on recent and "totals" trends.

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams Rams have covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 TY. Rams also "over" 8-2 in 2013, and Bears "over" 7-3 TY and "over" 9-3 last 12 since late 2012. Rams and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens Ravens "under" five straight at home and have also covered all four at home TY and six straight at M&T Bank Stadium since late 2012. Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Sunday, Nov. 24 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders Raiders have been alternating Ws and Ls since late September. Oakland "under" 4-12 last 16 since mid 2012. Titans 4-2 vs. line on road TY. Titans and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals Arians vs. old team. Big Red 4-1 SU at home TY. Colts 8-3 vs. line last 11 away and "over" 5-1 last 6 TY. "Over" and slight to Cards, based on "totals" and recent team trends.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Cowboys have not swept Giants since 2007. NYG have covered 4 of last 5 after dropping first 5 vs. number TY. G-Men "over" 5-2 last 7 at home and "overs" 7-2 last 9 vs. Dallas. Dallas 6-3 vs. line TY but no covers last 2. NYG and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Nov. 24 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots Denver "under" last 2 but "over" 8-2 TY and 44-20-1 since late 2009. Pats "over" 43-21-1 since late 2009. Last three "over" between these two since 2011. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Nov. 25 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins Harbaugh 30-14-2 vs. line with Niners, also "over" 15-6 last 21 since mid 2012. Shan "over" 9-5 last 14 reg.-season games, but 0-5 as dog TY after 6-2 in role LY. "Over" and 49ers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Teams on Bye - Week 12
Buffalo Bills Cincinnati Bengals Philadelphia Eagles Seattle Seahawks

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, November 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 8:25 PM ET New Orleans -9.5 500 POD # 1

Atlanta - Under 52.5 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 11

The mainstream media is going crazy about the renewal of the Peyton Manning/Tom Brady rivalry. The Denver Broncos visit the New England Patriots this Sunday Night. Sharps (professional wagerers) in Las Vegas and offshore are focused more of the FULL CARD rather than just a hyped media event. An easy winner in Jacksonville/Houston pays just as much as an easy winner in Denver/New England!

Let’s go through this weekend’s games in schedule order as we look at BIG MONEY MOVES from the Wise guys in NFL action…

TAMPA BAY AT DETROIT:
Sharps have been impressed with what they’ve seen from Tampa Bay in recent weeks. Many made game-day scores on the Bucs last Sunday against Atlanta. That support is most obvious this week on the total, where an opener of 45.5 has been bet all the way up to 49. They expect Mike Glennon to put points on the board. A team side opener of Detroit -9.5 has come down rather than moving toward the key number of -10. That actually shows a good amount of respect for TB as well. If Sharps liked Detroit, they would have jumped on -9.5 before the public came in on the favorite. That DIDN’T happen. Sharps bet TB +9.5…and some kept betting at +9. Sharps will use Detroit in teasers if the game drops into the classic window just below nine.

JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON:
Not much interest in this game, as it’s hard to feel passionate about either team given recent results. Houston opened at -10, and it’s stayed there. The total has been bet up from an opener of 42 to 43.5 because there’s no reason for this to be a defensive struggle since both teams are out of the playoff picture.

MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY:
Green Bay opened at -5, which is surprising given that Scott Tolzien is still the quarterback and Minnesota hasn’t obviously thrown in the towel yet on their season. Sharps took Minnesota +5, and some are still taking +4.5. The total has fallen from 45 to 44 or 43.5, and will come down more if there’s a chance for game day weather to influence play. We may see a bigger game day move from Sharps on the dog if they’re satisfied that the Vikings will be going all out in a divisional revenge game.

SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY:
Not much interest here. Kansas City opened at -4.5 with a total of 41.5. Some stores have tested half-point moves just to see if they generated action. Sharps are hesitant to support San Diego with a passion because the team has been doing so much travelling recently and this is a bad body clock game. Kansas City is hard to trust as a favorite because the offense doesn’t score a lot of points. A lot of Sharps took a hit with the Chiefs as a dog in Denver last Sunday Night, and aren’t interested in taking another shot on them just yet.

CAROLINA AT MIAMI:
We saw movement away from a key number, which is always meaningful in the NFL. Carolina opened at -3.5 and was bet up to -4 or -4.5 depending on the locale. That’s pretty strong support considering that Carolina is playing on the road after a big Monday Night game, and is facing a team that just won outright as a home underdog this week. Miami represents a classic situational play…yet the line moved against the Dolphins. A total of 40 has been bet up to 41. Bettors expecting a flat effort from the Carolina defense may be backing that sentiment with the total rather than the team side.

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND:
We have another game moving away from a key number. Cleveland opened at -2.5, but is not only -2 as we go to press. If Sharps liked the Browns, they would have jumped on them as a home favorite of less than a field goal. Sharps were impressed with Pittsburgh’s fourth quarter vs. Detroit last week. They will gladly take the Steelers in teasers if the line stays in the +1.5 to +2.5 range (moving Pittsburgh up past the 3 and the 7 to +7.5 to +8.5). Don’t be surprised if this is one of the “flipped favorite” games before kickoff that we’ve been seeing so much of in recent weeks. The total has been bet Under the opening total of 41. We’re now seeing 40 or 39.5. That number will drop even more on game day if weather is an issue.

CHICAGO AT ST. LOUIS:
St. Louis has been bet up from an opener of pick-em to -1. That’s an interesting move because the Bears are in a must-win situation in a very tight divisional race…while the Rams aren’t much of a contender off the pace with their backup quarterback. Some of that is bye related, as the Rams are coming in fresh off an off-week while Chicago had to go overtime in bad weather vs. Baltimore. Wise Guys hate Chicago’s defense…and think they’ll be in trouble indoors against a rested team. Not much interest on the opening total of 46. Math guys are leaning Under.

NY JETS AT BALTIMORE:
Big news here…as Baltimore was bet off the key number of -3 on the opener up to -3.5 and -4. It takes a lot of money to move off a key number and STAY there. No sentiment for a buy back on the Jets after the move. Sharps are convinced that Geno Smith is going to keep struggling on the road. That’s part of why the Over/Under has dropped from 40.5 down to 39. Key numbers are so important in evaluating the market. A move off the three represents important support.

TENNESSEE AT OAKLAND:
We already have a flipped favorite. Oakland opened at -1. But, it’s Tennessee that’s now a 1-point favorite. That may be due to rumors that Terrelle Pryor won’t be ready to return at QB this week for the Raiders. Matt McGloin fared well in Houston last week. But, now an opponent will have some game film to scout. Sharps appear to like Tennessee over McGloin or a hobbled Pryor.

INDIANAPOLIS AT ARIZONA:
Interesting one here, not just because Arizona’s head coach used to be on the Indianapolis staff. Arizona opened at -1.5, and has been bet up to -2.5. It hasn’t gone all the way to the key number of three though. It's assumed Sharps would come in heavily on Indy if they saw a three. So, we have all of the following in play…Sharps like Arizona at -2 or less…but would like Indianapolis at +3…and will love having Indianapolis in teasers at +7.5, +8, or +8.5. Sportsbooks will have to pick their poison about what they want to root for…Indianapolis +2 or Arizona -8.5.

DALLAS AT THE NY GIANTS:
Another move off a key number…and another game that will force sportsbooks to make a choice about what they want to root for. The Giants opened at -3. Dallas money came in strong enough to move off the key number and keep it there. We’re seeing Dallas +2.5 right now everywhere. If that holds true through Sunday…then Dallas +8.5 is going to be a very popular teaser play. Will sportsbooks decide they want to be one-sided on the team side or the teaser? Interesting that we’re not having any “tug-of-war” games this week. Games moving off the three are staying off! Nothing yet on the opening total of 45.5. Game day weather would bring in some Under money. But, possibly not a lot of Under money given how bad the Dallas defense is.

DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND:
Same story here…with an opener on a field goal being driven below it with authority. This time though, it’s the road team that was favored. Denver opened at -3. Sharps took the home underdog Patriots down to +2.5. Sharps would be very happy with the Patriots in teasers at +8.5. Some very tough games for sportsbooks to deal with this weekend! Awkward exposure in games that are likely to have a very high handle.

SAN FRANCISCO AT WASHINGTON (Monday): The Wise Guys jumped all over San Francisco at the opener of -4. We’re now seeing -6. Some believe that’s a sign that Michael Crabtree is ready to return and contribute to the San Francisco offense. But, the 49ers have had very good results this year vs. non-playoff teams, generally winning blowouts. Washington’s fallen so far off the pace that the line could also be based on that angle, or the off-the-field turmoil being described in the DC media. Sharps have all sorts of reasons to lay the chalk here at anything less than a TD.

That’s it for the weekend. The four bye teams this week are the LAST four teams to get byes. They are: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Seattle.
As always Good luck Den!!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Early action
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 40)

Pittsburgh is riding a resurgent Ben Roethlisberger, who was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 367 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Roethlisberger is 15-1 as a starter against the Browns and has 24 TDs and 10 interceptions against them. The defense has played inconsistently, holding six opponents under 300 total yards and giving up 393 or more in its other four games.

Cleveland has won three of its last four home games but stumbled on the road last week, committing four turnovers in a 41-20 loss at Cincinnati. The defense has kept the Browns competitive, ranking fifth in total yards (306.5) and in the top eight against both the run and the pass. It's another story on offense, where Brandon Weeden's ineffectiveness and Brian Hoyer's knee injury have forced the Browns to turn to veteran Jason Campbell.
LINE: Cleveland opened -2 but has been bet down to -1. The total is down from 41.5 to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 40 percent chance of snow and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+2.5) - Cleveland (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -2

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
* Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC foes.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5, 48.5)

While Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson leads the league in receiving yards (1,083) and touchdowns (11), Tampa Bay believes cornerback Darrelle Revis is more than up to the task of guarding him. The two All-Pros have tangled once before, with Revis limiting Johnson to one catch for 13 yards in a meeting four years ago. Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven appearances this season.

Reggie Bush fumbled twice - losing one - to find himself on the bench before receiving limited work when backup Joique Bell suffered an Achilles injury. Bush struggled on Sunday - as he has in all four of the team's losses - and has combined for at least 100 yards rushing and receiving in all of Detroit's wins. Bush, who still has the confidence of head coach Jim Schwartz, has since promised he won't fumble again this season.

LINE: Detroit opened -10 but has been bet down to -9.5. The total has held steady at 48.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+5.0) + Detroit (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -11

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 17-8-1 in Detroit's previous 26 games following an ATS loss.



Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4, 43.5)

Wide receiver Greg Jennings (Achilles) returned to practice Thursday while running back Adrian Peterson (groin) sat out again, but coach Leslie Frazier said they both should be ready for the game. Peterson, who vowed to break the NFL's single-season rushing mark before the campaign began, won't come close to that mark as he has only 851 yards and nine touchdowns.

Green Bay players aren't afraid to call this a must-win as the Packers sit a game behind both Chicago and Detroit in the division race. Green Bay has won seven of the last eight matchups with Minnesota, including a 24-10 victory in last season's playoff opener at Lambeau Field. The Packers have lost tight end Jermichael Finley for the season and have to wait until Week 15 for the return of wide receiver Randall Cobb.

LINE: Green Bay opened -5 but has been bet down to -4. The total has dropped a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+6.0) - Green Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -4.5

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.
* Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with losing records.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.



Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10, 43.5)

Leading tackler Paul Posluszny will be back after the middle linebacker missed last weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a concussion. Jacksonville held the Cardinals to 14 rushing yards, prompting Posluszny (88 tackles) to joke that perhaps his presence isn’t all that important. The offense’s rushing abilities were just as meager as the Jaguars had a season-worst 32 rushing yards

Houston quarterback Case Keenum tossed three touchdown passes in back-to-back games but head coach Gary Kubiak didn’t like what he was seeing in the third quarter of the Oakland contest and pulled him in favor of Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson is 10 receptions away from becoming the 15th player in NFL history to reach 900, while defensive end J.J. Watt (8.5 sacks) heads the league’s top defense (286.1 yards per game).

LINE: Houston has dropped from a -10.5 open to -10. The total is up a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+9.0) - Houston (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -7

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Texans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Under is 10-3-1 in Jacksonville's last 14 games vs. the AFC South.



Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-1, 45)

McCown's emergence is in line with an emerging theme in Chicago - a number of key players have been lost to injury but Marc Trestman's squad remains in the thick of the playoff race. Star linebacker Lance Briggs remains out with a shoulder injury but defensive end Shea McClellin (hamstring) went through a full practice on Thursday. Fellow defensive linemen Jeremiah Ratliff and Stephen Paea are expected to miss Sunday's game.

The Rams still have faint hopes of getting into the wild-card mix, although they will need lots of help and some upsets in a stretch run that includes games at San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle and a home game against New Orleans. That makes the meeting with the Bears a virtual must-win, and to find success St. Louis may lean heavily on standout rookie running back Zac Stacy, who has averaged 107.7 yards in the last three games.

LINE: Game opened as a pick before being bet up to St. Louis -1. The total is down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + St. Louis (+4.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -3.5

TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.
* Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.



New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 39)

New York is the first team to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games of the season and is due for a victory if that pattern holds. The Jets have been outscored by 85 points - worse than every AFC team except the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars - and have recorded each of their five wins by a touchdown or fewer thanks to a strong running game on offense and a strong defense against the run on the other side.

Baltimore’s Super Bowl hangover is threatening to knock it out of the playoff hunt and tight losses have been the biggest concern. The Ravens dropped a 23-20 overtime decision at Chicago last week and their last five losses have come by an average of 3.4 points. Joe Flacco has much more experience than Jets counterpart Geno Smith, but he is looking just as lost recently with four interceptions in the last two games.

LINE: Ravens have held as 3.5-point faves. The total is down one point to 39.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 16 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.5) - Baltimore (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -3.5

TRENDS:

* Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight November games.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
* New York is 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.



San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)

San Diego boasts the No. 7 offense (399.4 total yards) and the fourth-best passing game (287.9) as quarterback Philip Rivers has returned to form following two subpar seasons. Rivers leads the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has completed at least 30 passes to five different receivers. The offense has difficulty keeping pace with one of the league's most porous defenses, though, as the Chargers give up 389 total yards per contest.

Kansas City didn't have enough offensive firepower to keep pace with Denver. The Chiefs lean on Jamaal Charles, who leads the team in rushing yards (803) and receptions (49) with a combined eight touchdowns, but they need some other playmakers to step up down the stretch and in the postseason. The defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).

LINE: Chiefs opened -5 but have dropped to -4. The total is up a half-point to 42.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s under sunny skies.
POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (+1.0) + Kansas City (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -7.5

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games.
* Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC West.
* Under is 13-3 in Kansas City's last 16 home games vs. teams with losing road records.



Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5, 41)

Carolina's defense has quietly had a terrific season, allowing 24 points or less in all 10 games and yielding 12.8 points on average during the six-game winning streak. That said, standout defensive end Charles Johnson got leg-whipped against the Patriots and could be unavailable for Sunday's contest. One player who will definitely be healthy is wideout Steve Smith, who has 257 yards and four touchdowns in his last two matchups with Miami.

Tannehill has not thrown for more than 270 yards in a game since early October and has only thrown more than two touchdowns in a game once this season. Signed to a five-year, $60 million deal during the offseason, Mike Wallace only has one touchdown on the year and has totaled eight catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks. Miami has allowed 18.3 points over its last three contests.

LINE: Panthers opened at -3.5 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is down a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-4.5) + Miami (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Panthers -5

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Carolina's last 10 games on grass.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Late action
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+1, 41.5)

Fitzpatrick has compiled a passer rating of 111.0-plus in each of his last two starts, completing 44-of-61 for 486 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Running back Chris Johnson continues to display a maddening inconsistency, failing to surpass 39 yards rushing in five of the last seven but putting together a pair of two-TD performances in two of the past three contests.

McGloin, an undrafted free agent out of Penn State, was 18-of-32 for 197 yards in subbing for Terrelle Pryor, who was out with a knee injury. McGloin isn't the only backup to come up big for Oakland - running back Rashad Jennings rushed for a career-high 150 yards and a touchdown against Houston and has piled up 340 yards on the ground over the past three games in filling in for oft-injured Darren McFadden (hamstring).

LINE: Titans opened -1.5 but have been bet down to -1. The total is set at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+4.0) - Oakland (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -1.5

TRENDS:

* Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Raiders are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC foes.
* Under is 5-0 in Oakland's last five home games vs. teams with losing road records.



Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 45)

Indianapolis holds a three-game lead over the Tennessee Titans in one of the least-competitive division races going. The Colts have done well against the top of the NFC West, knocking off the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers, but were embarrassed 38-8 at home by the St. Louis Rams in Week 10. Indianapolis bounced back from that with a 30-27 road triumph at Tennessee as Donald Brown rushed for 80 yards and a pair of scores.

Arizona has won three straight to put itself back on the wild-card map and is rolling as Carson Palmer takes better care of the football. The veteran quarterback has thrown for six touchdowns and two interceptions during the winning streak and passed for 419 yards without throwing a pick in last week’s 27-14 win at Jacksonville. Cardinals OLB John Abraham has seven sacks in the last four contests.

LINE: The Cards opened -1 and are now -3. The total is up a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Indianapolis (-3.5) + Arizona (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -0.5

TRENDS:

* Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
* Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 7-2 in Indianapolis' last nine games on grass.



Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1, 45)

A defense that was carved up by New Orleans and Detroit will be under the gun due to the absence of injured linebackers Sean Lee and Jason Durant. Quarterback Tony Romo is routinely a lightning rod for criticism, but he has thrown for 21 touchdowns versus only six interceptions and has played exceptionally well against the Giants with 12 TD passes and a 117.7 rating in his last four meetings.

Eli Manning threw three interceptions and New York committed six turnovers in a 36-31 season-opening loss but still managed to make it a game as Victor Cruz caught three touchdown passes. Manning leads the league with 17 interceptions, although he has thrown only two in the past four games and finally has a semblance of a ground game with the return of running back Andre Brown from a broken leg.

LINE: Giants holding at -1. The total is down 1.5 points to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 18 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-2.0) - New York (0) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -1

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 12.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. the NFC.
* Under is 14-2 in New York's last 16 games following an ATS win.



Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 53.5)

Denver became the first team to put up more than 17 points against Kansas City and is averaging a league-high 39.8 points behind Manning, who has thrown for 34 TDs versus six interceptions. Welker leads the team with 61 receptions and his nine TDs are second to tight end Julius Thomas (10), who is questionable with a knee injury, but the Broncos also additional weapons in wideouts Demaryius Thomas (60 catches, 9 TDs) and Eric Decker (54 catches).

New England fell two games behind the Chiefs and Broncos in the chase for the No. 1 seed after last week's loss at Carolina that featured a reversed penalty call on the final play. Brady went four straight games without completing 60 percent of his passes, but he has raised his game the past two weeks with the return of a healthy tight end Rob Gronkowski and wideout Danny Amendola.

LINE: Broncos have held at -1. The total has dropped 2.5 points to 53.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 15 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.0) + New England (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -0.5

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 November games.
* Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
* Broncos are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions - Open: -9.5, Move: -8

The Lions are coming off a very disappointing loss last week with a big concern being the performance of the offense. Matthew Stafford and the offense struggled in the loss to the Steelers and could not put a point on the board in the third and fourth quarters.

"Tampa Bay has been resurgent in the last couple of weeks with better defense and a much more established running game, which will be in for a big test against a stingy Lions run defense," says Black. "Action has been going more with the Bucs + points at about a 2-to-1 clip, with Detroit seeing more action as a SU parlay banker."

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders - Open: -1.5, Move: +1

Though it may not seem like it, considering the teams featured, this game could be an important one for the AFC playoff picture with the loser probably destined for the golf course come playoff time. Raiders QB Matt McGloin played quite well in his debut and could be under center once again for the silver and black.

"One factor that will sway the line in Oakland's favor is if Terrelle Pryor can suit up," Black tells Covers. "He's reported to be the backup, and may possibly see the field in certain scenarios, or take the field if McGloin struggles. Given the injuries on both sides, it's a game that isn't getting any sustained action but so far it's pretty split. I expect that we will see Oakland action as the game draws closer."

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals - Open: -2.5, Move: -3

The subplot here is Cardinals coach Bruce Arians facing the team he served as interim coach when Chuck Pagano was battling leukemia. The Colts are facing some injury concerns and it's the Cards that have been a popular play among bettors since this line opened.

"Action has been loving the Cards by about a 3-to-1 clip, but SU sees more Indy action as the road dog," Black said. "The total has creeped up and sees Over play, as most non-conference games do."

[StarDust Bum]

NFL betting: Top 5 key Week 12 injuries

With the last of the bye weeks upon us, teams are officially out of additional rest time - and judging by the Week 12 injury list, some rosters could use plenty more.

The Minnesota Vikings will have a hobbled superstar in the lineup this week, while the Washington Redskins will be missing one of their top playmakers. And the San Francisco 49ers may be on the verge of getting back one of the key members of their NFC championship team from a season ago.

Here's a look at five of the most important injuries heading into Week 12:

Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers (PUP, Achilles)

There's some thought that Crabtree might be activated from the physically-unable-to-perform list as early as this week after he made an appearance at practice on Thursday. The 49ers remain mum about a timetable for the standout wide receiver, who hasn't played all season after suffering an Achilles injury over the summer. It may be a stretch to expect him back Monday night - but Crabtree could be back in Week 13, a development that would greatly bolster a pass attack that ranks last in the league in yards per game (168).

San Francisco is a 4.5-point favorite for the Monday nighter against the Redskins. The total is set at 47.


Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins (out, concussion)

While San Francisco goes into its tilt with Washington having known that Crabtree wouldn't be ready for Week 12, the Redskins face a key absence that is no less significant but slightly more of a surprise. Washington had hoped that Reed would be able to pass his concussion protocol in time for the game, but he remains in limbo and hasn't practiced all week. Reed has been one of quarterback Robert Griffin III's favorite targets to date - racking up 499 yards and three touchdowns - and leaves Pierre Garcon as the only pass-catching asset in Washington's arsenal.


Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos (questionable, knee)

The week's most highly anticipated showdown - Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, Chapter 14 - may be missing one of the Broncos' key contributors. Thomas was limited in practice throughout the week, and interim head coach Jack Del Rio offered little information to reporters about the tight end's availability for the showdown in New England. Joel Dreessen would step into the starting role if Thomas couldn't go; the roster move would give Manning one fewer reliable option in his aerial attack, but Denver has plenty of other weapons where that is concerned.

The Broncos come into the Sunday nighter at New England as a 1-point favorite, with the total at 53.5.


Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (questionable, groin)

Last year's most dynamic offensive player hasn't been nearly as explosive so far in 2013 - and a nagging groin injury will likely hamper him even further. Peterson sat out Thursday's practice but returned to the field the following day and assured reporters that the ailment wouldn't keep him out of action. While the injury may have had a hand in limiting the defending rushing champion to just 140 yards on 42 carries over back-to-back weeks, he'll be facing a Green Bay defense that allows more than four yards per carry.

Minnesota is a 4.5-point underdog in Green Bay on Sunday. The total is set at 43.5.


Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys (probable, hamstring)

The Cowboys will have a full complement of healthy receiving options for the first time since Week 3 as Austin makes his return from a nagging hamstring injury. After it was thought that he might be ready to return as soon as Week 10, Austin was a full participant in practice this week and declared himself close to 100 percent. Austin is expected to slide into the No. 2 receiver slot opposite Dez Bryant, though he and rookie Terrance Williams will both see plenty of targets - and may provide Bryant with a break from the weekly double-teams he has faced.

Dallas is installed as a one-point underdog against the host New York Giants. The total is 45.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 40)
There is a 43 percent chance of snow. Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 19 mph.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 43.5)
Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph. Temperatures will be in the high-teens with partly cloudy skies.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 39)
Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 16 mph. There is a small chance of snow with temperatures in the mid-30s.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5, 41)
There is a 40 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 15 mph.

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+1, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1, 45)
Temperatures will be in the high-20s with wind blowing toward the SE endzone at 17 mph.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 53.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-teens with wind blowing across the field at 15 mph.

[StarDust Bum]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 12 of NFL football

- Browns CB Joe Haden will be lined up against Steelers WR Antonio Brown Sunday. Haden held Bengals star-WR A.J. Green to two catches and seven yards last week.

- Pittsburgh is beginning to pick up the tempo on offense. The Steelers are averaging 71 plays per game over their last three games. For the season, they are averaging 64.8.

- Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven appearances this season - and two in four of his last six. Glennon will face Detroit's 30th-ranked pass defense on Sunday.

- Detroit's offense struggled mightily in the second half of last week's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They will welcome the (probable) return of WR Nate Burleson to the huddle. It will, at the very least, alleviate some of the pressure that Calvin Johnson has seen from opposing secondaries.

- An NFC North rivalry pits the Minnesota Vikings at the Green Bay Packers Sunday. The Vikes are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings at Lambeau Field.

- The Packers have lost back-to-back games at home and haven't lost three straight since 2006.

- Jacksonville QB Chad Henne passed for 354 yards and four touchdowns against the Texans in last season’s game. The Jags are currently 10-point road dogs Sunday.

- The Houston Texans have scored just two rushing touchdowns all season.

- New York Jets WR Jeremy Kerley has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens.

- The Baltimore Ravens have won seven-straight games SU versus the New York Jets and are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

- The top Covers consensus ATS pick is Kansas City (-4) over the San Diego Chargers (67.37 percent).

- The Kansas City Chiefs defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).

- The Bears have not fared well ATS versus NFC opposition. They are 3-13 against the spread in the last 16 matchups versus teams within the same conference.

- The St. Louis Rams have been a hot Over play in recent weeks. The Rams are 6-1 O/U in their last seven games overall. At 8-2 O/U on the season, they are tied with Denver and Minnesota for the best O/U marks.

- With last week's win versus the New England Patriots, the Carolina Panthers extended their SU and ATS winning streak to six games.

- Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has not thrown for more than 270 yards in a game since early October and has only thrown more than two touchdowns in a game once this season.

- Colts QB Andrew Luck has completed just 56.25 percent of his passes since Reggie Wayne went down with an injury.

- The Arizona Cardinals have won three-straight games and QB Carson Palmer has tossed six TDs and just two picks during that stretch.

- The fave is 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings between the Titans and Raiders. Tennessee is currently a 1-point road fave.

- The top Covers consensus Totals pick is the Over 45 in the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants (75.60 percent).

- Cowboys WR Dez Bryant hasn't scored a TD in his last four games versus the Giants.

- Tom Brady leads the all-time matchup versus Peyton Manning 9-4 SU and 6-5-2 ATS.

- The Pats have allowed teams to score touchdowns in 70 percent of their trips in the red zone over the last three games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chargers at Chiefs: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)

With their first loss behind them and another showdown looming next week, the Kansas City Chiefs look to get back to their winning ways when they host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. The Chiefs suffered their first defeat a week ago, falling 27-17 at Denver, and they have one game to get tuned up for another shot at the Broncos next week. The Chargers are within a game of the last wild-card spot despite losing three straight by a combined 18 points.

A victory isn't critical to the Chiefs' playoff hopes - they're virtually a lock for the postseason - but they're tied with the Broncos for the best record in the AFC and need to bounce back the next two weeks. "Everything we want is still ahead of us," Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith told reporters. "We can't have an emotional letdown off of a big week last week." The Chargers have won 10 of the last 13 meetings including wins by 17 and 18 points last season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Chiefs opened -5 and are now -4. The total is up to 42 from the opening 41.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-6): San Diego boasts the No. 7 offense (399.4 total yards) and the fourth-best passing game (287.9) as quarterback Philip Rivers has returned to form following two subpar seasons. Rivers leads the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has completed at least 30 passes to five different receivers. The offense has difficulty keeping pace with one of the league's most porous defenses, though, as the Chargers give up 389 total yards per contest.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (9-1): Kansas City didn't have enough offensive firepower to keep pace with Denver. The Chiefs lean on Jamaal Charles, who leads the team in rushing yards (803) and receptions (49) with a combined eight touchdowns, but they need some other playmakers to step up down the stretch and in the postseason. The defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last five games in November.
* Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Chargers last six vs. AFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kansas City coach Andy Reid needs one win to become the 21st NFL coach to win 150 games, including the postseason.

2. Chargers TE Antonio Gates needs two catches and 15 yards to become the fourth tight end in NFL history with at least 700 catches and 9,000 receiving yards.

3. Smith (317) needs 70 rushing yards to surpass Tyler Thigpen for the most in a season by a Chiefs quarterback.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Most popular, least popular picks in the LVH Super Contest, where 1,034 contestants pick five games each week of the NFL season........they paid $1,500 each to be in this contest, by the way.

Most pop. (19-46-2 vs spread)

1) Patriots 314
2) Cardinals 282
3) Cowboys 276
4) Steelers 265
5) 49ers 256
6) Chargers 255

Least popular (34-30-2)

28) Texans 61
T24) Raiders 92
T24) Raiders 92
T22) Redskins 103
T22) Lions 103
21) Vikings 113


*****

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday........

13) It was November 23 yesterday and we saw these scores.........
-- Georgia Tech 66, Alabama A&M 7
-- Clemson 52, Citadel 6
-- North Carolina 80, Old Dominion 20-- Tar Heels get a semi-pass because ODU is in process of moving up to I-A.
-- Alabama 49, Chattanooga 0
-- South Carolina 70, Coastal Carolina 10

Florida State hung 80 on Idaho, but Idaho is I-A, so they're big boys and need to recruit better. Playing I-AA teams rips off your fans, especially this late in the season. if you lose to a I-AA team, you should become ineligible to play in a bowl game that year. Speaking of which.......

12) Georgia Southern 26, Florida 20-- GSU didn't complete one pass, not one; they were 0-3 passing, ran ball 54 times for 429 yards. Florida is 4-7, will have its first losing season since I was in college-- 1979. Do you think Mike Gundy would leave Stillwater to coach the mighty Gators?

11) Oklahoma State 49, Baylor 17-- Game was 35-3 after three quarters; Bears haven't won in Stillwater since WWII. Gundy's stock is pretty high; if Florida came calling, he'd have an interesting choice to make. The coach who preceded Gundy in Stillwater is doing pretty well in the SEC.....

10) LSU 34, Texas A&M 10-- Tigers ran ball for 324 yards on a rainy day in Baton Rouge, beating A&M for third time in row over last four years. Aggies outgained LSU last year but were done in by turnovers; they were physically thrashed in this game.

9) San Diego State 34, Boise State 31, OT-- Aztecs are first conference rival to beat Boise in consecutive years since Broncos were playing in the old Big West Conference; Aztecs' two 4th quarter TDs came on a pick-6 and a punt return. Boise's 7-4 record is their worst in a long time.

8) Arizona 42, Oregon 16-- In the history of football, teams that rush for 300+ (304) yards and have a +3 turnover ratio never lose, not even if they're 19-point home underdogs. Wildcats lost to Wazzu last week, win this game, which would make you question why you bother handicapping games.

7) Vanderbilt 14, Tennessee 10-- Commodores have beaten Tennessee in consecutive seasons for first time since 1926; they've also won their last eight November games. "Coach Franklin, I have a Mr Haden on Line 1....."

6) Brian McCann: 5 years, $85M to play in the Bronx- their catchers hit .213 with eight homers LY. Think 5-year contracts are the ceiling now.

5) Boston College 29, Maryland 26-- Andre Williams had 263 yards on 32 carries as Eagles rallied from a 24-13 deficit to win on a last-second 52-yard FG, when kid had missed first try that was nullified by a Maryland timeout. Williams had TD runs of 74/72 yards.....in the 4th quarter.

4) Wizards 98, Knicks 89-- If Knicks could re-think getting rid of Jeremy Lin, you think they would still do it? Rockets are 9-5, Knicks 3-9. They're a team that lacks toughness with Chandler out injured.

3) Iowa 24, Michigan 21-- Watching this game before the LSU-A&M game was like watching the JV game before the varsity; how does Michigan not have better athletes at RB/WR? TV guys kept saying how great #87 is; all the kid did all day was drop balls right in his hands. .

2) Clippers/Lakers both have games in Staples Center Sunday; would be curious to know how many people were at both games.

1) Wyoming 59, Hawai'i 56 OT-- Cowboys gained 793 yards but needed a FG in OT to beat 0-11 Hawai'i, which at least got back to go back to paradise after the game, while the Cowboys had to stay in Laramie. Wyoming will be bowl eligible if they upset Utah State next week, but Aggies will be playing for a division title because of Boise State's loss.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, November 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +1 500
Cleveland - Under 39.5 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Detroit -7.5 500 POD # 1
Detroit - Over 48.5 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Green Bay -5 500
Green Bay - Over 44.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +10 500
Houston - Over 44 500

N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET New York Jets 500 POD # 1
Baltimore - Over 38.5 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City -3.5 500 POD # 1
Kansas City - Over 44.5 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Chicago +1 500
St. Louis - Over 44.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Miami +4.5 500 POD # 1
Miami - Under 40.5 500


Love all these 4 POD'S Equally...........Good Luck !!

[StarDust Bum]

Late Game POD'S


Indianapolis 0 0th Indianapolis +3.5 500 POD # 1
Arizona 0 Under 44.5 500

Tennessee 0 0th Tennessee -2.5 500 POD # 3
Oakland 0 Over 42 500

Dallas - 4:25 PM ET N.Y. Giants -2.5 500 POD # 2
N.Y. Giants - Under 44.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Broncos at Patriots: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 53.5)

The stakes are typically high when Peyton Manning and Tom Brady square off and that will again be the case Sunday night when the Denver Broncos visit the New England Patriots. The Broncos are in the midst of a grueling three-game stretch, sandwiching a pair of games with AFC West co-leader Kansas City around Sunday's matchup. The Patriots, coming off a controversial last-second loss at Carolina, need a win to maintain any hopes of securing home field for a potential playoff matchup.

Brady is 9-4 in his career against Manning, who is on a record-setting pace for passing yards thanks to the addition of former New England wide receiver Wes Welker. In six seasons in New England, Welker amassed a staggering 672 receptions, but his status is in question due to a concussion sustained in last week's 27-17 victory over the Chiefs. "This is a big game for both teams so you have to expect their best players," Brady said. "I'm sure all those guys will be ready to go."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Pats opened as 1-point dogs. The total is down from the opening 56.

WEATHER: Wind will blow across the field at 15 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-20s.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (9-1): Denver became the first team to put up more than 17 points against Kansas City and is averaging a league-high 39.8 points behind Manning, who has thrown for 34 TDs versus six interceptions. Welker leads the team with 61 receptions and his nine TDs are second to tight end Julius Thomas (10), who is questionable with a knee injury, but the Broncos also additional weapons in wideouts Demaryius Thomas (60 catches, 9 TDs) and Eric Decker (54 catches). Knowshon Moreno is a dual threat out of the backfield for Manning, but overlooked has been the recent play of Denver's defense, which has yielded 19.3 points in its last three after giving up an average of 35.3 points in the previous three.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-3): New England fell two games behind the Chiefs and Broncos in the chase for the No. 1 seed after last week's loss at Carolina that featured a reversed penalty call on the final play. Brady went four straight games without completing 60 percent of his passes, but he has raised his game the past two weeks with the return of a healthy tight end Rob Gronkowski and wideout Danny Amendola. Running back Shane Vereen had eight catches last week in his first game since the season opener, but the Patriots have serious issues on defense - their top three cornerbacks are hurt and they have already lost starting nose tackle Vince Wolfork and middle linebacker Jerod Mayo for the season.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Broncos last five road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning's 3,572 yards are the most in history through the first 10 games of a season.

2. Brady is 4-6 lifetime against Denver but has won the last three, including a 45-10 rout in the playoffs in January 2012.

3. The weather could be a great equalizer, with temperatures below freezing and 20 mph winds forecast for the contest.