The Bum's NFL November's POD'S Stats-News Etc. !

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thurs., Nov. 28

Green Bay at Detroit, 12:30 ET
Green Bay: 13-4 ATS versus division opponents
Detroit: 3-12 ATS off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less

Oakland at Dallas, 4:30 ET
Oakland: 7-0 UNDER after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Dallas: 6-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 2-10 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Baltimore: 41-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less


Sun, Dec. 1

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 3-11 ATS versus division opponents
Indianapolis: 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

Denver at Kansas City, 4:25 ET
Denver: 12-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Kansas City: 33-56 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Jacksonville at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
Cleveland: 8-0 UNDER after having lost 4 out of their last 5

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 3-12 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Carolina: 15-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Chicago at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 2-8 ATS in all lined games
Minnesota: 9-2 OVER in all games

Arizona at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 2-10 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more
Philadelphia: 18-7 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Miami at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Miami: 6-0 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7
NY Jets: 15-29 ATS in home games in December

Atlanta at Buffalo, 4:05 ET
Atlanta: 37-20 ATS in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
Buffalo: 2-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

St Louis at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
St Louis: 10-28 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent
San Francisco: 22-9 ATS in games played on a grass field

New England at Houston, 1:00 ET
New England: 33-17 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
Houston: 0-6 ATS in home games

Cincinnati at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Cincinnati: 21-8 ATS after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half
San Diego: 0-6 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game

NY Giants at Washington, 8:30 ET
Ny Giants: 15-5 ATS in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game
Washington: 1-7 ATS against conference opponents


Mon, Dec. 2

New Orleans at Seattle, 8:40 ET
New Orleans: 10-2 OVER in road games against NFC West division opponents
Seattle: 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

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NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 28

12:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay

4:30 PM
OAKLAND vs. DALLAS
Oakland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games at home

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home


Sunday, December 1

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games at home
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CLEVELAND
Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games ,
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Arizona is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
Carolina is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. BUFFALO
Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games
St. Louis is 6-16-1 SU in its last 23 games ,on the road
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
San Francisco8-2-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing St. Louis

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SAN DIEGO
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Washington
NY Giants are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games when playing Washington
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games


Monday, December 2

8:40 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Thursday's games

Packers (5-5-1) @ Lions (6-5)—Immense pressure on Detroit here; not only have Lions lost last nine Thanksgiving games, four of last five Turkey Day losses were by 12+ points. Lions lost 15 of last 16 series games, with only win a 7-3 in ’10 when Rodgers sat out (sound familiar???). Packers are 0-3-1 with Rodgers out of lineup; Flynn came off bench to rally Pack to 26-all tie vs Vikings last week, after they trailed 23-7 in 4th quarter. Flynn has only started handful of NFL games, but he led Pack to 45-41 win over Lions on frigid day at Lambeau two years ago. Detroit was -5 in turnovers and had punt blocked in last week’s home loss to Bucs, yet they still only lost by a FG; Lions lost first meeting with Pack 22-9 (+6.5) in Week 5 when Megatron was late scratch- they were outgained 449-286 that day, with both teams scoring only one TD. NFC North divisional home favorites are 3-3-1 vs spread this season; Lions failed to cover last three home games. Pack is 0-3 as an underdog this season. Six of last eight Packer games stayed under total; four of last six Detroit games went over.

Raiders (4-7) @ Cowboys (6-5)— Oakland lost in last 0:10 at home last week; they’re 5-1 vs spread in game following a loss this year, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4 points, with win at skidding Houston. Last three Raider games were all decided by 5 or less points. This is only second home game in last eight weeks for Cowboys, who had big divisional win Sunday in Swamp; Dallas is 3-1 as home favorite this year, after being 3-17 in Garrett’s first three years. Cowboys are 3-2 SU at home, winning by 5-24-15-4 points, with only loss 51-48 shootout with Denver. Raiders turned ball over 10 times (-4) in Pryor’s last four starts; they’ve turned it over only twice (even) in McGloin’s two starts. Hard to believe they’re interested in McGloin as long-term starter, but he hasn’t been awful in his first two NFL starts. Oakland is 6-4 in this series, winning three of four visits here, with only loss 24-7 in last visit, in ’09. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; AFC West underdogs are 8-3, 5-1 on road. Over is 3-0-1 in last four Raider games, 4-0 in last four Dallas tilts.

Steelers (5-6) @ Ravens (5-6)—Resurgent Pitt won five of last seven games after 0-4 start; they beat Ravens 19-16 (-1.5) at home in Week 7, outrushing Ravens 141-82 (season high in RY for Pitt) in game with two TDs, seven FGs. Steelers are 8-5 in last 13 series games, 3-2 in last five here; they’re 2-3 in true road games, winning at Jets/Browns, losing other three by 10-3-24 points. Ravens are 4-1 at home, with only loss 19-17 to Packers; six of their last eight games were decided by 6 or less points, with a 7th game decided by six- they’re 3-2 as a favorite. After scoring 19 or less points in five of first seven games (11 TDs/78 drives), Steelers averaged 32 ppg in last four (12 TDs/48 drives); if Pitt makes playoffs, could see Big Ben getting MVP votes- they turned ball over only once (+7) in last three games, after being -11 in first eight. Ravens allowed only one offensive TD on 22 drives in last two games. Home teams won/covered seven of eight AFC North games this year. Five of last seven Steeler games, seven of last ten Baltimore games stayed under the total.

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NFL

Thursday, November 28

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NFL Thanksgiving betting: Packers at Lions
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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6, 50)

The Green Bay Packers have been in a tailspin since losing Aaron Rodgers to a broken collarbone, and they might have to survive another game without their star quarterback when they travel to Detroit for a Thanksgiving showdown with the Lions. The Packers need a win to stay afloat in the NFC North after a 26-26 tie against Minnesota on Sunday. Green Bay is one win behind the Bears and Lions, who wasted a chance to take the lead by losing 24-21 to Tampa Bay.

Rodgers hasn't officially been ruled out yet, but with a short week it seems Matt Flynn will get a chance to deliver Green Bay's first win since Week 8. Flynn came off the bench to pass for 218 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings, rallying the Packers from a 23-7 deficit. The Lions know Flynn all too well - he threw six touchdown passes against them in the 2011 regular-season finale.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET Fox.

LINE: The line has held steady at the Lions -6. The total hasn't moved from 50.

WEATHER: N/A.

POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+5) - Detroit (-3) + home field (-3) = Detroit -11

ABOUT THE PACKERS (5-5-1, 5-6 ATS): Green Bay's four-game winless streak can't be blamed entirely on the quarterback situation, as the defense has
allowed 409.5 yards per game over the past four contests compared to 331.1 in the first seven. The Packers also are minus-3 in turnover margin over that span, though they did not have a giveaway against Minnesota. Rookie running back Eddie Lacy has been the workhorse for Green Bay with Rodgers out, and he gained 158 yards on 31 touches against Minnesota.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-5, 5-6 ATS): Detroit has been hurt by self-inflicted wounds, committing eight turnovers in back-to-back losses since seizing control of the division with a win over the Bears in Week 10. Turnovers are the only thing slowing down the Lions' offense, which ranks sixth in total yards (412.1) and third in passing (308.4). The defense has held five straight opponents under 100 yards rushing but has struggled against the pass.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Detroit.
* Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Detroit.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lacy has recorded 22 or more carries in seven of the last eight games, averaging 94.4 rushing yards during that span.

2. Detroit has lost its Thanksgiving Day game the last nine years. It's last win was a 22-14 triumph over Green Bay in 2003.

3. Johnson has 861 receiving yards over the past five contests, the most in a five-game span in NFL history.



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NFL

Thursday, November 28

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NFL Thanksgiving betting: Raiders at Cowboys
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Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 46.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are tied atop the NFC East and can keep pressure on the competition with a win over the visiting Oakland Raiders on Thursday. The Cowboys go into their traditional Thanksgiving contest tied with Philadelphia for the division lead and riding momentum of a 24-21 road win over the New York Giants. The Raiders gave up a late touchdown in a 23-19 loss to Tennessee to fall one game behind a group of six teams tied for the final AFC wild card.

Dallas plays three of its last five games at home - including a season-ending showdown with the Eagles - where it is 4-1 with the only loss a 51-48 shootout with Denver. Oft-criticized quarterback Tony Romo boasts a 105.7 rating at home compared to an 89.7 mark on the road. Undrafted rookie Matt McGloin will make his third straight start at quarterback for Oakland, earning another turn in favor of now-healthy Terrelle Pryor after passing for 457 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in the past two games.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Cowboys opened as 9.5-point home faves and have been bet to -10. The total opened at 45.5 and has moved up to 46.5.

WEATHER: N/A.

POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+5.5) - Dallas (-3) + home field (-3) = Dallas -11.5

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (4-7, 6-4-1 ATS): McGloin has done a credible job leading the offense considering running back Darren McFadden remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and receiver Denarius Moore (shoulder) sat out Sunday. The Raiders rank fifth in the league in rushing, but that's skewed by the 504 yards Pryor has racked up in eight games. Oakland's defense has to do a better job of getting off the field after allowing scoring drives of 16 and 14 plays on Tennessee's final two possessions.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-5, 8-3 ATS): Dallas limped into its bye week after a 49-17 loss at New Orleans, but Romo's late heroics against the Giants might have saved the Cowboys' season. The offense is still inconsistent and leans too heavily on the pass, but having DeMarco Murray back to full strength should help get the running game going. Dallas allows 432.2 yards per game - most in the league - and gave up 202 rushing yards to New York in an otherwise solid performance.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-2 in the Raiders last 10 games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last seven versus a team with a losing record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Romo's 11 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime are the most in the NFL over the past three seasons.

2. Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski is 15-of-22 on field-goal attempts after going 62-of-69 the previous two seasons, and he is 11-of-15 from inside 50 yards compared to 49-of-50 from that range the past two years.

3. Dallas CB Morris Claiborne aggravated his hamstring injury against the Giants and is not likely to play versus Oakland.

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NFL

Thursday, November 28

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NFL Thanksgiving betting: Steelers at Ravens
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 40)

The Baltimore Ravens appeared to be losing a battle to a Super Bowl hangover while the Pittsburgh Steelers merely appeared punch drunk, but the fierce rivals have each turned around their seasons to move into playoff contention. Pittsburgh goes for its fourth straight victory when it visits Baltimore on Thursday night in an AFC North clash that could have major postseasons ramifications. The Steelers edged the visiting Ravens 19-16 on Oct. 20 on a field goal as time expired.

Pittsburgh's 0-4 start was a daunting enough obstacle to overcome, but a 55-31 shellacking at New England on Nov. 3 appeared to be the knockout blow for any playoffs hopes. The Steelers rebounded with three consecutive wins to join the Ravens in a tie for second in the division. The Ravens endured three straight losses - by a total of 11 points - before beating AFC North leader Cincinnati on Nov. 10, and they bounced back from another narrow defeat in Chicago by dominating the New York Jets on Sunday.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The line opened at -1 and has jumped as high as -3 before settling at -2.5. The total opened at 41 and has been bet down to 40.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high 20s with a 7 mph wind blowing towards the East endzone.

POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (0) - Baltimore (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Baltimore -1.5

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-6, 5-6 ATS): Pittsburgh was held under 20 points in five of its first seven games but has come alive offensively during its winning streak, averaging 29 points. Ben Roethlisberger has cut down his interceptions and thrown seven touchdowns versus one pick while being sacked only once in the three-game run after getting taken down 35 times in the first nine contests. Antonio Brown has four TDs in his last four games and became the fourth wideout in franchise history to reach 80 catches, while a rejuvenated defense is allowing an average of 16 points since the beating by New England.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (5-6, 6-5 ATS): Quarterback Joe Flacco became the league's highest-paid player after delivering a Super Bowl championship to Baltimore last season but he has already thrown a career-high 14 interceptions, including six in the past four games. Ray Rice failed to build on his season-high 131-yard performance on Nov. 17, managing only 30 yards on 16 carries Sunday to mark the seventh time he has been held to 36 yards or fewer. The defense allowed its lowest point total since December 2009 by registering three sacks, forcing three turnovers and limiting New York to 220 yards of offense.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Baltimore.
* Steelers are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 7-0 in Ravens last seven home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams have split the last 10 meetings - with eight of them decided by three points.

2. Roethlisberger is 37-11 in his career against division opponents.

3. The Ravens have recorded a sack in 22 consecutive games, matching a franchise record.

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Thanksgiving's biggest NFL betting mismatches

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6, 50)

Packers’ passive defense vs. Lions’ turnover troubles

The Lions can blame Matt Stafford’s four interceptions for last week’s upset loss to Tampa Bay. And two fumbles and an INT didn’t help matters in Week 11’s loss to Pittsburgh. Detroit is coughing up the ball at an alarming rate – or it would be alarming if Thursday’s opponent wasn’t the toothless Packers defense. According to Yahoo!Sports, Green Bay is one of only four teams without a pick-six this season.

The Packers have only four interceptions overall and have scooped up just six fumbles – the second fewest takeaways in the NFC. If the Cheese Heads are going to get by another week without Aaron Rodgers, they need the defense to give them some extra touches. And it doesn't look like they have the ball hawks to take advantage of a mistake-prone Lions offense, which sits 26th in giveaways per game (1.9).


Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 46.5)

Raiders’ rush attack vs. Cowboys’ run defense

We usually like to dig a little deeper when it comes to our betting mismatches but this deserves mention, especially with Dallas giving so many points at home. The Cowboys defense has been steamrolled by runners this season, giving up an average of 133.6 yards on the ground per game. They've been extra soft against the run in their last three outings, for an average of 204.3 yards against and five rushing TDs. The Giants, Saints and Vikings all chewed up the turf and control the pace of those games.

The Raiders lost their dual-threat QB Terrelle Pryor to a knee injury but remain a danger on the ground. Oakland is fourth in the NFL in rushing - 140.6 yards per game – and return two key cogs of that run game Thursday. Oft-injured RB Darren McFadden should be back on the field this week, giving the Silver and Black a two-pronged attack along with RB Rashad Jennings, who has 413 rushing yards in his last four games. The offensive line also welcomes back stud LT Jared Veldheer, who will help both the pass and run gameplans.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 40)

Steelers’ ramped-up attack vs. Ravens' offense stuck in reverse

The Ravens offense is grasping at straws and QB Joe Flacco knows it. The Super Bowl MVP ripped on his coaches’ use of the wildcat formation this week, stating “I think it makes you look like a high school offense”. Well Joe, the fact that Baltimore has averaged just over 18 points in its last six games makes the team look more like a high school offense. That and the fact you have as many interceptions (6) as you have touchdowns (6) in your last four games. Maybe your coaches are trying to tell you something.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has undergone an offensive renaissance in recent weeks. The Steelers are scoring almost 30 points per game over their last four outings and, as we mentioned last week, are picking up the pace with a no-huddle attack. The offensive line is finally coming together, giving plenty of running room for RB Le'Veon Bell. That’s opened things up for the passing game as well. Ben Roethlisberger has been the anti-Flacco, throwing for six TDs and zero interceptions in the last two games.

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Lions' slump and other NFL Thanksgiving betting records

Disappointment has been right there with the turkey and mashed potatoes on the Thanksgiving Day menu for Detroit Lions fans, who have suffered though a nine-game losing skid on the holiday Thursday.

Detroit has managed to cover only twice during that decade-long drought, coming through for loyal Lions bettors in a crushing 34-31 overtime loss as a 3.5-point home underdog last Thanksgiving.

Looking back, Thanksgiving has been a pretty crappy occasion for football fans in the Motor City, and not because they have the in-laws coming to town. Since 1985, the Lions are 11-17 SU and 12-16 ATS during their annual Thanksgiving game.

Hopefully, Detroit backers were also getting down on the Under every Thanksgiving. The Lions are a profitable 5-23 O/U on the holiday Thursday and aren’t the only Thanksgiving NFL staples leaning towards low-scoring games on Turkey Day.

The Dallas Cowboys have produced an 8-20 O/U record on Thanksgiving since 1985. But, unlike Detroit, America’s Team has produced a profit against the spread – be it a slight one – with a 15-13 SU and 16-12 ATS mark on Thanksgiving in that span.

Here’s a look at the other four teams taking the field on Thanksgiving and their record in the holiday spotlight since 1985:

Green Bay Packers: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Oakland Raiders: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U
Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Baltimore Ravens: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U

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Essential betting tidbits for the NFL's Thanksgiving games

We know you will be grabbing for an extra helping of juicy turkey this Thanksgiving, so why not some extra juicy betting tidbits as a perfect side to go along with Thursday's Thanksgiving NFL action.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7, 49)

- The Packers will be without Aaron Rodgers for the fourth straight game since breaking his collarbone and his absence has not only taken a toll on his team, but on bettors as well. The once high-powered Pack offense have gone 0-4 ATS without Rodgers and have only hit the Over once in that span.

- The Packers will turn to Matt Flynn at QB, whose last start for the Packers back in 2011 when he defeated the Lions in a 45-41 shootout, setting single game Packers records for yards (480) and passing TDs (6) in the process.

- The Lions have been mere kittens on Thanksgiving, losing nine consecutive games on turkey day, going 1-8 ATS. Matthew Stafford is 0-3 in three career Thanksgiving games, with only four TDs and seven INTS, which goes along with his recent trend of turning over the football.

- Calvin Johnson has scored a TD in his last four Thanksgiving games, but has only averaged 4.5 receptions and 70 receiving yards in those games.


Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 47.5)

- The Raiders are a surprising 6-4-1 ATS this season and are even better on the road with 3-1-1 ATS a record. They are 6-3 ATS when they rush for 100 or more yards, the Cowboys give up 133.6 yards rushing per game.

- Undrafted free-agent QB Matt McGloin makes only his third start for the Raiders and his first in the national spotlight. He has thrown for 457 yards and four TDs in those games. But when he is under center the Raiders need to improve on third down, going 8-for-28.

- The Cowboys have quietly become the best team in the NFL when it comes to covering the spread. After last week's road victory over the Giants, the 'Boys now sit at 8-3 ATS.

- Another undrafted free-agent QB, Tony Romo, seems to enjoy feasting on Thanksgiving, more specifically on his opponents. Romo has a 5-1 record in Thanksgiving Day games throwing for 17 TDs and only 6 INTs.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 41)

- The Steelers, who many thought were long dead in the playoff race after a 0-4 start, are back in the mix after rattling off five wins in their last seven games going 5-2 ATS in that span. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Baltimore.

- Big Ben has been a big reason for the Steelers turn-around this season. Since the bye he has thrown 15 TDs and six INTs with a QB rating of over 98.

- The Ravens are 3-0 this season straight up and ATS when they out-rush their opponents. The problem is they have only out-rushed opponents three times
in 11 games this season. Ray Rice has been a shell of his former self this season and is averaging less than three yards per carry.

- The Ravens have been a much better home team compared to when they play on the road. They are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS at home versus 1-5 SU and 2-4
ATS on the road.

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NFL Thanksgiving action report: Books 'made a mistake' with Steelers-Ravens odds

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions – Open: -, Move: -7

Without Aaron Rodgers in the lineup, books opened the Packers as low as 6-point underdogs but watched money on the Lions push that spread to the key number of a touchdown. According to Stewart, about 80 percent of the action is on Detroit, which hasn’t won a Thanksgiving Day game in a decade.

“We've seen great two-way action at that number so I doubt we'll get off the number 7,” he says. “But we might adjust the juice depending on how the late money comes in.”


Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -10.5, Move: -7, Move: -7.5

Some books dropped this spread as many as three points after opening Dallas as big as -10.5 at home. At CarbonSports.ag, the Cowboys are down to -9 with sharp money sitting on the Raiders but America’s Team is among the most public NFL bets – especially on Thanksgiving – and money is starting to come back on Dallas and could move the juice for this afternoon affair.

As for the total, books opened at 46 and took instant wiseguy money, driving the number up as high as 47 points before the public – which loves to bet the Over on Thanksgiving – tacked on another point to this total.

“If we're seeing sharp action on the over, we know our recreational players are also going to bet it over,” says Stewart. “We have to move much more aggressively towards the Over to help stem some liability. Sure enough the public is betting it Over and we've further adjusted this total to 48, where we're finally seeing a bit of Under money come in.”


Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5, Move: -3, Move: -2.5

Books opened the Ravens under the key number of a field goal and took early action on the home side, only to draw more money on Pittsburgh at +3. That forced the line back to its original post, where action has remained balanced heading into the late game.

However, books are sweating a three-point final in this AFC North grudge match, where three is the margin of victory in the Ravens and Steelers last four meetings and eight of their past 10 clashes.

“While we've booked this game relatively even, if it were to land Ravens by three, we're going to lose a decent amount of money to bettors that laid -2.5 and we've going to refund a ton of tickets on the Steelers +3,” says Stewart. “It's not an ideal position to be in and we probably made a mistake going to three earlier in the week. But it is what it is.”

As for the total, Stewart says 75 percent of the early money was on the Over after opening at 40.5. That pushed the total to 41 where action has leveled out.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

Pittsburgh at Baltimore
The Steelers travel to Baltimore on Thanksgiving and look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games against the Ravens. Pittsburgh is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28

Game 303-304: Green Bay at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 129.104; Detroit 133.189
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Detroit by 7; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+7); Under

Game 305-306: Oakland at Dallas (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.900; Dallas 137.166
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Over

Game 307-308: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.133; Baltimore 135.207
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, November 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Green Bay - 12:30 PM ET Green Bay +7 500 POD # 1

Detroit - Over 48.5 500 POD # 1

Oakland - 4:30 PM ET Dallas -7.5 500 POD # 1

Dallas - Under 47.5 500

Pittsburgh - 8:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +2.5 500 POD # 1

Baltimore - Over 41 500

[Kaptain]

happy Thanksgiving to one of my favorite members here............

gl today BUM..........you have a good/safe/FAMILY day

[wayne1218]

Happy Thanksgiving BUM

[libertypl]

Happy Thanksgiving SDB. BOL to ya and thanks.

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks guys.......hope you all had a great time with your families..............

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 13

November 29, 2013


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Chargers are 10-0 ATS (14.55 ppg) since Oct 14, 2007 at home when one game under 500.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-11 ATS (-8.82 ppg) since Dec 19, 2004 after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Carson Palmer is 0-8 ATS (-14.44 ppg) since December 2011 as more than a two-point dog when he threw for between 205 and 370 yards last week.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-17-2 OU (-9.3 ppg) since January 2005 when the total in the game is at least 47.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that scored at least 27 points while gaining less than 255 yards last game are 79-52-7 OU. Active on Cincinnati.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Panthers are 0-12 OU (-8.21 ppg) since Dec 12, 2004 as a home favorite when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

The playoff picture is slowly starting to take shape as we flip the calendars to December and following Dallas’ win over the Raiders, Sunday night’s game between the New York Giants and Washington Redskins essentially becomes an elimination game. Washington was already manhandled by the 49ers in the first of its three-game home stand and if they even want anyone to show up for next week’s game against the Chiefs, the Skins better learn to play some defense and quick!

The Giants followed their Week 9 bye with three consecutive home games and they won the first two before getting swept in the season series vs. the Cowboys in Week 12. So far this season, teams who travel after an extended home stand are 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS and 1-5 O/U. The longterm look-back (since 1989) shows a 50-percent record ATS with a slight lean to the under (55-percent) and the more recent record for totals is 27-46 O/U (63-percent UN).

Totals of 44 or more resulted in 6 overs and 18 unders the past six years and when the ATS line is single-digits, either way, that mark reduces to 3-18 O/U (85-percent UN). The Sunday night total is available at 46.5 and for this week’s tip we are taking the Giants and Redskins UNDER.