The bum's 2012 nfl sept. Best bets !

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Total Talk - Week 3

September 22, 2012

Week 2 Recap

Total players saw a stalemate in Week 2 as the 'over/under' produced an 8-8 record. On the season the 'over' stands at 17-15. The guys behind the betting counter should be pleased with the results, especially in the primetime games. So far, the 'under' has gone 6-2 in the first eight games played under the lights, which includes Thursday's affair between the Giants and Panthers.

Potential Shootouts

Gamblers have two games listed with totals of 50 or higher in Week 3 and all four of these teams in action have watched the 'over' go 2-0 in their first two affairs.

Cincinnati at Washington (50): The Bengals made the playoffs last year behind a defense that gave up an average of 21 points per game. Through two weeks, Cincinnati has surrendered 44 and 27 points, the latter coming to a rookie-led offense in Cleveland last Sunday. The Bengals will face another rookie this week as they meet RG3 and the Redskins on the road. The first-year QB has looked great so far and Washington has put up 40 and 28 points in its first two games, both coming on the road. Cincinnati watched the 'over' go 6-2-1 on the road last season but the team hasn't seen a total listed in the fifties since the 2007 season. Make a note that Washington won't have WR Pierre Garcon (foot) available and the defense also lost starters on the defensive line in Brian Orakpo (pectoral) and Adam Carriker (quad) for the season.

Kansas City at New Orleans (53): If these two teams play the same way they did in the first two weeks, then this game will be 'over' midway through the second quarter. The Chiefs and Saints have both allowed 75 points this season and it's hard to argue which defense has been worse. New Orleans did face a rookie in the aforementioned RG3 in Week 1 before getting run over by Cam Newton last weekend. The Saints' offense has put up 32 and 27 the first two weeks and getting in that neighborhood again seems real doable, especially at home. You just wonder if Kansas City can do its job offense. Last week, the Chiefs went scoreless in the first-half of last week's 35-17 blowout loss to Buffalo. Including the opener against the Redskins, the Saints have seen the 'over' go 7-3 in the last 10 battles at the Superdome.

Divisional Battles

In Week 2, we had four divisional games and the total split with a 2-2 record. When you combine the Week 1 results, the 'under' stands at 6-4 (60%) through two weeks in divisional affairs. This week we only have two divisional matchups and apparently the familiarity factor is leaning to the 'under' with two lowest totals posted on the betting board.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: This number is hovering around 41 points as of Saturday evening. The last three meetings in this series have gone 'under' the number, which includes two straight in South Florida. Both teams enter this week with identical 1-1 'over/under' marks. Miami's offense put up 35 points last week but 28 of those points came in the second-half. Will we see that explosion again from running back Reggie Bush? The Jets' defense did give up 28 and 27 points the first two weeks, so nothing would be surprising here.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Despite playing behind rookie QB Andrew Luck, the Colts have scored 21 and 23 points the first two weeks albeit the defense helped boost the scoreboard in Week 1. The offense should have opportunities do the same against a Jaguars' defense that has given up 26 and 27 points this season. The issue could be Jacksonville's offense, which only scored seven points last week and they were lucky to do that. The two meetings last year went 'under' and neither outcome (17-3, 19-13) threatened the closing number. Different faces and a fast turf could see things change on Sunday. The total is sitting at 43 points.

Line Moves

In Week 2, five totals had line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS. Of those games, only the Ravens-Eagles move was right as bettors pushed the total from 44 ½ to 46 and some other offshore outfits closed at 47. Philadelphia earned a 24-23 victory, which barely went 'over' the number for some.

As of Saturday evening, here are the totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS.

Rams at Bears: Line opened at 44 ½ and dropped to 43
Bengals at Redskins: Line opened at 46 ½ and jumped to 50
Eagles at Cardinals: Line opened at 44 and dropped to 42
Falcons at Chargers: Line opened at 49 and dropped to 47 ½
Texans at Broncos: Line opened at 47 ½ and dropped to 44 ½
Steelers at Raiders: Line opened at 43 and jumped to 45
Patriots at Ravens: Line opened at 48 ½ and jumped to 50
Packers at Seahawks: Line opened at 47 ½ and dropped to 44 1/2

Fearless Predictions

Unfortunately, our first go around didn't go as planned. We had a little bit of a rough start to the season as we split our total wagers (1-1, $-10), lost our Team Total and the Three-Team Teaser as well. Based on one-unit plays, we're down $220. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Patriots-Ravens 50

Best Under: Bills-Browns 44

Best Team Total: Under Browns 21

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Patriots-Ravens 41
Under Jets-Dolphins 50
Under Bills-Browns 53

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Week 3 Tips

September 20, 2012

Heading into Week 3 of the NFL, a handful of teams are listed as road favorites, even though these chalky squads haven't been successful this season. Through two weeks, teams laying points on the highway own a 3-7 ATS record, as the Texans were the lone team to win and cover last week at Jacksonville. In this week's early games, four clubs are laying the wood, even though only one of them is undefeated.

49ers (-7, 43 ½) at Vikings - 1:00 PM EST

San Francisco enters the Twin Cities at 2-0 for just the third time since 2000, as the 49ers look to keep backers happy with another win. Jim Harbaugh's club followed up an impressive road triumph at Green Bay in the season opener by slowing the Lions in a 27-19 victory as seven-point home favorites. This is the first of two games for San Francisco off the West Coast, as the Niners head to New Jersey to take on the Jets next week.

Since Harbaugh's arrival last season, San Francisco owns a 14-5-1 ATS record, but three of those losses have come in the role of a road favorite. The Vikings are listed as an underdog for the first time after failing to cover against the Jaguars and Colts as short 'chalk.' Minnesota's first two games have been decided by three points, including a 23-20 setback at Indianapolis, as the Vikings overcame a 20-6 deficit to tie the game before allowing a 53-yard field goal to Adam Vinatieri in the final seconds.

The Vikings have put together a solid 6-3-1 ATS record since 2011 as an underdog, but Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games at **** of America Field. The Niners have failed to cover in each of their last three away games off a home win, but all three ATS losses came to division opponents. Minnesota rallied past San Francisco the last time these met in 2009, but the Niners cashed as seven-point road 'dogs in a 27-24 defeat.

Lions (-3 ½, 47) at Titans - 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee has compiled a pair of mediocre efforts in its first two losses to New England and San Diego, as the Titans return home to battle the Lions. Three years removed from capturing the league's rushing title, Titans' running back Chris Johnson has stumbled out of the gate with 21 yards on 19 carries in two defeats. Now, Tennessee has to slow down Detroit's explosive offense, which was silenced at San Francisco.

The Lions kicked four field goals before a late touchdown pass by Matthew Stafford gave a Detroit a more respectable result in an eight-point defeat. Jim Schwartz's team has failed to cover in two games after needing a rally in the final seconds to stun the Rams in the season opener, 27-23 as nine-point favorites. Detroit is just 3-7 ATS the last 10 games away from Ford Field, including a 1-3 ATS mark last season as road 'chalk.'

Despite Kenny Britt's return to the lineup at San Diego, Tennessee mustered 212 yards of offense in a 38-10 loss as 6 ½-point 'dogs, while the defense allowed five offensive touchdowns to the Chargers. The Titans own a 3-6 ATS record at home under Mike Munchak, while splitting a pair of games as an underdog against the Saints and Ravens.

Jets (-2 ½, 40) at Dolphins - 1:00 PM EST

These two old AFC East rivals enter Sunday's contest with a 1-1 record, as both have won at home and lost on the road through two weeks. New York's offense couldn't put together an encore performance after a 48-point effort in a Week 1 blowout of Buffalo (granted the Jets scored two non-offensive touchdowns), as the Jets were held to 10 points in a Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh. The Dolphins put together probably the biggest offensive turnaround from Week 1 to Week 2 after an impressive showing against the Raiders.

Reggie Bush rushed for 172 yards and two touchdowns, erasing a small halftime deficit en route to a 35-13 victory for the Dolphins as one-point underdogs. Miami improved to 5-1 the last six games at Sun Life Stadium, which includes a 19-17 win over the Jets to conclude last season. The Dolphins have done well against the Jets under Rex Ryan, as Miami is 4-2 SU/ATS in the series since 2009. Also, Miami is a solid 10-2 ATS the previous 12 games overall since last October.

Mark Sanchez completed just 10 passes against the Steelers, one week after tossing three touchdown passes in the season opener against the Bills. The Jets have failed to cover seven of their last nine road games, but New York is a profitable 7-4 ATS in Ryan's tenure. Following a road loss hasn't been a good spot to back New York under Ryan, as the Jets are 3-7 ATS, including a 1-4 ATS mark last season.

Bills (-3, 44) at Browns - 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo rebounded nicely from an opening week whipping at the Jets by doling out a 35-17 beatdown of the Chiefs last Sunday in their home opener. The Bills are listed as road favorites for just the second time in Chan Gailey's tenure, as Buffalo lost in this role at Cincinnati, 23-20, as three-point 'chalk.' The next test for the Bills is a winless Browns' team that has actually been a tremendous pointspread play since last season.

Cleveland may not win many games, but Pat Shurmur is keeping his team motivated, as the Browns are 7-1-1 ATS the last nine contests dating back to last November. The Browns cashed in the one-point opening week loss to the Eagles as nine-point home 'dogs, while pushing in last week's 27-20 setback at Cincinnati as seven-point underdogs. However, the Browns have had problems scoring at home since Shurmur took over as head coach last season by scoring 17 points or less in nine consecutive home contests ('under' is 6-3).

The Bills have cashed the 'over' in five straight regular season games since Week 15 of last season, but Buffalo is 0-8 SU the last eight road contests. This is a critical game for the Bills, who take on the Patriots at home next week, followed by a pair of trips to the West Coast to battle the 49ers and Cardinals.

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Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

6) Green Bay Packers, 180
5) New Jersey Jets, 181
4) Detroit Lions, 191
3) Atlanta Falcons, 193
2) San Francisco 49ers, 197
1) Arizona Cardinals, 255

26) Chicago Bears, 65
27) Tennessee Titans, 60
28) Kansas City Chiefs, 52
29) Washington Redskins, 50
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 46
31) Jacksonville Jaguars, 38

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NFL weather watch: Rain expected in Cleveland, Miami

NFL game weather and resulting stadium conditions can have a significant impact on player performance and the outcome of football games. Bettors should take weather conditions into consideration, especially when placing over/under wagers.

Here are two key matchups that are being threatened by inclement weather Sunday:

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (3, 44)

Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and a 20 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the west.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (1, 41)

Site: Sun Life Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-80s and a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Miami area. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

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NFL

Week 3

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Chiefs at Saints: What bettors need to know
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Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-9, 53)

Whether it's the loss of head coach Sean Payton, a hangover from the ongoing bounty investigation or just an atrocious defense, the 0-2 New Orleans Saints host the Kansas City Chiefs desperate for their first win of the season. Kansas City seems to be just the right remedy. While New Orleans has been upset by the Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers, the Chiefs haven't even been competitive in losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills.

Playing from behind, both the Saints' and the Chiefs' offenses have put up big numbers in their first two games, but they are tied for last in the NFL in scoring defense, having allowed 75 points apiece on the season. Saints quarterback Drew Brees threw for 325 yards last week in rebounding from Week 1 when he completed just 46 percent of his passes.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Saints -9, O/U 53.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (0-2): Oddly enough, led by Matt Cassel, the Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games against the NFC. Cassel is 10-5 against NFC teams and Jamaal Charles has also had good success rushing for an average of over seven yards a carry against out-of-conference foes. But Kansas City has struggled offensively to start the season once again, raising questions about Romeo Crennel’s credibility as a head coach. Charles (probable) is off to a dreadful start with just 90 yards on the ground in his first two outings and he injured his surgically repaired left knee last week. Tight end Kevin Boss is questionable with a head injury.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-2): Brees has thrown for an NFL-record 300 yards in nine straight games. New Orleans, however, has lost the last three of them. The Saints appear distracted by the aftermath of the NFL's investigation into the team’s alleged bounty system that cost Payton his job for the season. The defense is still reeling from the loss of several key members, including linebacker Jonathan Vilma, and has surrendered nearly 400 yards rushing in their first two games. New Orleans couldn't contain the athletic Cam Newton in last week's loss or rookie Robert Griffin III in the opener. Newton ran for a career-high 71 yards. It could have more success against the far less-mobile Cassel.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-0 in Saints’ last seven games overall.
* Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five September games.
* Saints are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last six September games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Saints are 0-2 for the first time since 2007.

2. The Saints won the last meeting 30-20 back in 2008.

3. Kansas City began last season 0-3.

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Sunday, September 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Dallas -9 500
Dallas - Under 46 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET Chicago -7 500
Chicago - Over 43 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +6.5 500
Minnesota - Under 42.5 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Detroit -3.5 500
Tennessee - Over 47.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +3 500
Washington - Under 49.5 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +9 500
New Orleans - Over 53 500

N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -1 500
Miami - Over 41 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +3 500
Cleveland - Under 44 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +3 500
Indianapolis - Under 43 500

Philadelphia - 4:05 PM ET Arizona +3 500
Arizona - Over 42 500

Atlanta - 4:05 PM ET San Diego -3 500
San Diego - Under 47.5 500

Houston - 4:25 PM ET Denver +1 500
Denver - Over 44.5 500

Pittsburgh - 4:25 PM ET Pittsburgh -3.5 500
Oakland - Under 45.5

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SNF - Patriots at Ravens

September 23, 2012

If you were trying to adjust your odds screen or call the sports editor at your local newspaper Monday about the error that had the Ravens favored by three points over the Patriots, you weren't alone. It's hard to believe that a team like the New England Patriots could be underdogs, especially to the Ravens, a team they have beaten like a drum since 1996, going 7-1 in eight encounters.

But things are a little different this time around. The Ravens finally have a home game, they're favored and both teams are coming off a loss. Six of their last eight meetings have been in Foxboro and the last two have been about as close as possible, by identical 23-20 scores. The Patriots won both games, but the Ravens got the money.

The Patriots are coming off a 20-18 home loss to the Cardinals last Sunday, a game they were favored by 13 ½-points with the Cardinals money-line paying out at 7/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $700). Had the Patriots won the game, the spread for tonight's game would have been Pick 'em, but the shadow of doubt has been placed upon the Patriots because of the loss.

Even though we're talking about a Cardinals team that has now won nine of their past 11 games, a team that has been shutting down opposing offenses since the latter half of 2011, the public perception of 'Zona is that it's a bad loss -- almost to the same degree of a loss to Cleveland, Tennessee or Jacksonville.

It's not the same, but that's the perception!

The high point-spread from last week dictates the measure that we all place the severity of the loss. Sure, it was a bad loss, but the Cardinals did exactly what the Giants have done to Tom Brady in their last two Super Bowl meetings; they made him uncomfortable and beat him up.

That's been the secret to beating the Patriots over the years. It's just hard for teams to execute the game plan. The question in this game is whether the Ravens defense can put the pressure on Brady.

When we think about the Ravens defense, we have this image of Ray Lewis being MVP and carrying his team to a Super Bowl win, and the only reason we still think that way is because the freak of nature is still playing.

But that Super Bowl win was over a decade ago. While Lewis may be wiser and craftier at his old age, he is much slower, which is part of the reason the Eagles were able to put almost 500 yards up against the Ravens last week. The Eagles turned the ball over four times and still were able to pull out a 24-23 win.

Another reason the Ravens defense has been faltering lately is because the defense is on the field more now with their offense running more hurry-up plays. The thing that has hurt Baltimore over the years is not being able to keep up offensively late in big games because Joe Flacco isn't a money quarterback. It's not because he can't be, but more because he's never been given the chance to run an offense like the other top quarterbacks in the league, which in the process, has hurt his chances at being the most confident QB possible.

Everyone in the league is running schemes for the quarterback to maximize their talents, while Flacco has been playing the Bob Griese role from the 1970's Dolphins.

Now that Flacco throws more, less time is taken off the clock and the Ravens defense spends more time on the field. If this is the game plan for Sunday night, the Ravens will have a tough time beating the Patriots, especially without last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Terrell Suggs, out of the game, and not harassing Brady.

We seem to think Brady's excellence can last forever, but it's about time maybe we start speculating that his run might be close to being over, and through the first two games this year, you'd have some pretty good ammunition for the argument. Let's face it, he's 35 years-old, he's not in sync with Wes Welker yet, he's missing tight end Aaron Hernandez (ankle) to injury and newcomer Brandon Lloyd doesn't look to be the answer as expected on the outside.

Bettors took all that data in and jumped on the Patriots +3, eventually forcing every sports book in Las Vegas to drop them to +2 ½.

We all know about Pats coach Bill Belichick's 26-3 record after a loss since 2003, which applies here, but what you may not know is that the Ravens have won their past 13 games in a row coming off a loss. They also have a won a league high 11 games in a row at home.

So now the final decision comes down to you, the bettor. You now you have to take a side. It's a difficult one to make and there are several angles to look at here. We'll certainly know a lot more about each team and what they're made of after tonight. The loser goes to 1-2 and finds themselves in all kinds of bad tie-breaking scenarios in regards to home field when the playoffs start. That is, of course, assuming both teams make the playoffs.

Kickoff is slated for 8:30 p.m. ET, with NBC providing national coverage.

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NFL

Week 3

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Patriots at Ravens: What bettors need to know
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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 49.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have some bad memories of the last time they faced the New England Patriots - a last-second loss in the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens will get home field advantage in Sunday night’s rematch and have the more confident kicker this time around. The Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowski missed badly on a 42-yarder in the final seconds last weekend, dooming the team to a rare home loss. Billy Cundiff, who missed a last-second 32-yard attempt in the title game last January, has been replaced by rookie Justin Tucker, who is 6-for-6 so far. Both teams looked strong in Week 1 but will be trying to avoid dipping below .500 after disappointing showings in Week 2.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Ravens -1.5, O/U 49.5. Most sportsbooks opened the Ravens as -3 favorites, but that line has since been bet down to -1.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s and clear skies at M&T Bank Stadium. Wind won’t be a factor.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (1-1): The record-setting offense from past years did not show up against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, with Tom Brady not throwing a touchdown pass until late in the fourth quarter. That unit could be in trouble again on Sunday without tight end Aaron Hernandez, who suffered an ankle sprain against the Cardinals and will miss 4-to-6 weeks. New England signed free agent Kellen Winslow and brought back wide receiver Deion Branch during the week. Wes Welker, who led the NFL in receptions last season and has been one of the most prolific receivers in the game since joining the Patriots, was replaced in the starting lineup by Julian Edelman last week as new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels continues to tinker with the offense. The bright spot has been a much-improved defense, especially rookie DE Chandler Jones.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (1-1): Baltimore will catch a break without Hernandez on the field but will still have to account for Rob Gronkowski. The Ravens had trouble containing Philadelphia Eagles tight end Brent Celek in a 24-23 loss last Sunday. Baltimore’s defense is under the direction of new coordinator Dean Pees, who spent the previous few seasons with the Patriots, and is ranked just 27th through the first two weeks. The offense looked strong enough to overcome those deficiencies in the Week 1 thrashing of Cincinnati, but quarterback Joe Flacco was just 22 of 42 against the Eagles and the Ravens converted only 4 of 14 third downs. Flacco actually outperformed Tom Brady in last January’s meeting but was let down when his sure touchdown pass was knocked out of the hands of Lee Evans right before Cundiff’s missed kick.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in Ravens’ last six September games.
* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Patriots’ last five road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Baltimore S Bernard Pollard, who knocked out Brady for the 2008 eason with a low hit in the opening weekend and was responsible for Gronkowski’s ankle injury in last season’s meeting, is questionable for Sunday with a rib contusion.

2. Patriots rookie Jones will be playing for the first time against his brother, Ravens DE Arthur Jones.

3. New England is 7-1 against Baltimore, including the playoffs.

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Sunday Night Play:

New England - 8:20 PM ET Baltimore -1.5 500

Baltimore - Under 49.5 500

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Packers Play First Road Game Monday At Seattle

The Green Bay Packers will play their first real game outside of Lambeau Field since last December when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football.

Green Bay is down to a 3-point favorite at most locales on the Don Best odds screen after opening at -4 ½. The total is 46 ½ and ESPN will have the coverage from CenturyLink Field at 8:30 p.m. (ET).

The Packers (1-1 straight-up and against the spread) opened with tough home games against San Francisco (30-22 loss) and Chicago (23-10 win). They will have had 10 full days of rest as the Bears game was on Thursday, September 13.

Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy was happy with the defensive effort against Chicago, sacking Bears quarterback Jay Cutler seven times and picking him off four times. Cutler had trash talked the Pack before the game, but got so flustered during it that he pushed one of his offensive linemen.

The Packers offense has yet to fully click at 22.5 PPG after a league-leading 35 PPG last season (the ‘over’ 11-5). The running game is currently tied-for-26th at 75.5 YPG with James Starks (turf toe) out and Cedric Benson carrying the load. Starks is questionable for Monday. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is still extremely dangerous, but his 3:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio is far different than the incredible 45:6 he posted last year. It should help that star receiver Greg Jennings (groin) is probable after missing last game.

The Packers went 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) on the road last year. The loss was 19-14 as 11-point favorites at Kansas City on December 18. That really stung as it ended their perfect season and was a prelude to the 37-20 home loss to the Giants in the divisional playoff round.

The Seahawks (1-1 SU and ATS) opened with a 20-16 loss at Arizona as 1-point favorites before surprising Dallas last week, 27-7 as 3-point home ‘dogs. Both games went ‘under’ the total and fit with coach Pete Carroll’s philosophy of solid defense and special teams, plus managing the offense.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson surprisingly beat out Matt Flynn and is averaging just 152 passing yards at 6.53 per attempt. The latter figure ranks 31st in the NFL. The rookie who played college ball at both North Carolina State and Wisconsin has a very good arm, but makes even New Orleans’ Drew Brees look tall at just 5-foot-11.

The Seahawks want to first-and foremost run the bruising Marshawn Lynch (207 yards) out of the two, tight-end set. That helps keep Wilson out of third-and-long situations and sets up play-action. He can also tuck it and run if the opportunity presents itself.

The Seattle defense is stout up front and only allowing 46 YPG rushing (ranked second). Benson will not scare them despite rushing for 81 yards last week. Look for the ‘D’ to take away Rodgers’ deep options, force him to throw it underneath, and then come up with some solid tackling.

Green Bay has started playing a lot of rookies on defense and while that worked against Chicago, it’s much different doing it in the hostile environment. That could be the biggest reason for the spread move in Seattle’s direction.

The Seahawks have one of the healthier teams in the league with just six players showing up on the Don Best injury report. Starting left tackle Russell Okung (ankle) is probable after missing last game. They have played well on Monday Night Football historically, 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five, and beat St. Louis 30-13 as 9-point home favorites last year.

The Packers won and covered the last three meetings between the teams, the latest in December 2009. The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 in the last four with 55.5 the average total points scored.

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Books dominate weekend

September 24, 2012

The Las Vegas sports books had one of those epic type of weekends, where three or four years down the road when discussing some of their biggest winning weeks, they’ll always refer back to Week 3 of the 2012 season. Between Saturday’s college football action and Sunday’s NFL slate, the recreational bettor -- the type that comprises the majority of the handle -- never had a chance.

There were some instances of bettors changing their habits a little by siding with a few underdogs, but for the most part, it’s not easy for them to bet against the favorites they all know and love. Saturday’s college action saw the favorites go 17-28-2 against-the-spread, and it got even worse Sunday when almost every elite favorite went down for the count, going 4-10 ATS.

The underdogs didn’t just cover the spread, a large portion of them also won outright, which not only rakes in a ton of win through parlays, but also wipes out the bulk of all teaser and money-line plays. Fourteen of the 28 underdogs that covered in college won outright. Eight of the 10 ’dogs that covered in the pros won straight-up, an obscene amount that is nearly comparable to an eclipse occurring.

Saturday’s college action was helped by some of the top-ranked college teams not covering, such as Alabama, LSU, Florida State, and Oklahoma. Bettors also took it on the chin when they surprisingly sided No. 23 Arizona at No. 3 Oregon, taking the 23 points, only to watch their attempt at adapting to recent trends blow up in their face when Oregon rolled, 49-0 for their first cover of the season.

One of the sports books' biggest wins on Saturday was when No. 19 UCLA lost at home as a seven-point favorite to Oregon State, 27-20. The Bruins had covered all three of their games this season, and looked to be a changed team under Jim Mora Jr., putting all kinds of points of the board and covering easily, traits bettors love to see. It didn’t matter that sharp money had backed the Beavers, pushing the line from 9 ½ to 7 early in the week, because the bettors were enamored with what UCLA did the first three weeks.

When the bettors regrouped their thought process and went to the ATM to reload funds, they came into Sunday’s action full of confidence. Many reports around town say that Sunday’s handle was above Week 3 last season, continuing an upswing through the first three weeks.

In Week 2, the NFL teams showed a glimpse of how anything can happen on any given day with six underdogs winning outright. That should have been a nice introductory course on how to handle Week 3, but instead, their process went like this: the 49ers look indestructible, the Saints can’t start off 0-3, the Jaguars might be one of the worst teams in football and if they’re not, the Titans are.

The 49ers were the most lopsided one-way action of the day, laying seven points on the road at Minnesota. The majority of the betting public had the 49ers on at least one of their tickets, if not all of them, as one of the gimmes of the day. The public likes to bet what they saw last, and wiping out two playoff teams -- the Packers and Lions -- was a pretty impressive resume. The Vikings controlled the game from the outset, winning 24-13 in a game that was probably one of the least competitive on the day.

The Saints are one of the biggest mysteries of all, and this last of act of theirs, may have finally had the last bettor jumping off their wagon. Last season they covered all nine of their home games, a hard habit to break for bettors that had been cashing in on them. On Sunday, beyond not covering, they also lost in overtime, at home, 27-24 to the Chiefs, one of the least respected teams in the bettors’ mind.

Those two games alone would have been enough for the sports books to salvage a winning day. The 49ers were the root of most every parlay and the Saints were the second. But things got even better for the books. The Titans, who have looked uncompetitive in their first two games, played inspired and beat the Lions, 44-41 as 4-point ‘dogs. The Bengals were getting three points in Robert Griffin III’s home debut at Washington and won, 38-31. The Jaguars beat the Colts, 22-17 as a three-point dog with some more impressive late game heroics by Blaine Gabbert.

If a bettor had bet a five-team money-line parlay with those underdogs, $10 would have fetched $3,034, or at least got them to the books’ cap price on off-the-board parlays. It’s hard for people to change their patterns, but we have witnessed almost the same thing happen the past two weeks.

Is it likely to continue? Probably not, it could just be one of those things the sports books loves that keeps bettors guessing. What is likely to happen is as soon as bettors start sided with the dogs more, the cycle will shift, lines won’t be as inflated, and the favorites begin to go on a run. When that happens, the books won’t be as hurt as much in the past because a portion of their patrons will have come up with new strategies to try and beat the number.

During the afternoon games, we started to see a shift in the public betting patterns as they sided with two underdogs, the Cardinals and Falcons. Granted, both aren’t your average underdog, but both were getting three points and found lots of support. Even though those wins were small consolations on the day, the bettors didn’t have anything live going into them so instead of paying 20-to-1 on a five-team parlay, they maybe only paid out 10/11 on a straight bet or 13-to-5 on a two-teamer.

By the time the big Sunday night came out between the Patriots and Ravens, bettors were either busted or had to run to the ATM again. Wouldn’t you know it, the majority sided with the Ravens laying 2 ½ points. The Ravens won 31-30, but didn’t cover. The books win again and it was the ultimate cherry on top of the days‘ sundae, a weekend that will be hard to top for the remaining 14 weeks.

Hang in there folks, it will get better.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Packers at Seahawks

September 23, 2012

Two weeks are in the books this season with mixed results all over the board. Green Bay bounced back from a disappointing opening week loss to San Francisco with a Thursday night triumph over Chicago to even its mark at 1-1. The Packers trek to the Pacific Northwest for a meeting with a Seahawks' squad that continues to hold up their home-field advantage after a Week 2 blowout of the Cowboys.

Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks own a 13-5 ATS record at home since his arrival in 2010 after Seattle dispatched Dallas, 27-7 as three-point home underdogs. Seattle's special teams set up two scores out of the gate, including a blocked punt returned for a touchdown to grab a 10-0 lead. Russell Wilson put together an efficient performance in his first NFL win, completing 15 of 20 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown, while Marshawn Lynch ran all over the Dallas defense for 122 yards.

Wilson secured his job as Seattle's starting quarterback for another week with the Week 2 victory, denying a Packers reunion with Matt Flynn, who signed with the Seahawks in the offseason after four seasons in Green Bay. Flynn's former team avoided an 0-2 start by beating the rival Bears, 23-10 as five-point home favorites. The Packers managed the win without top receiver Greg Jennings, who missed the game with a groin injury, as the former Western Michigan standout is listed as 'probable' on Monday. Aaron Rodgers hooked up with his second favorite target, Donald Driver on a 26-yard touchdown strike to give the Packers a commanding 23-3 lead and their first victory of the season.

The Packers leave Lambeau Field for the first time in 2012, as Green Bay won seven of eight road contests last season. The lone loss by Mike McCarthy's team came at Kansas City as 11-point favorites in a 19-14 setback, while the Pack finished 4-4 ATS on the highway. However, Green Bay put together a perfect 4-0 ATS mark as a road favorite of six points or less, which is the pointspread range for Monday.

The Seahawks keep finding ways to produce for backers at home, including a 6-1 ATS record since the start of last season as an underdog at CenturyLink Field. Seattle beat Baltimore and Philadelphia outright in 2011 when receiving points at home, while hanging tough in covers against Atlanta and San Francisco. The Seahawks posted a 1-5 SU/ATS ledger in Carroll's first season off a home win, but improved to 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS last season in this situation.

Amazingly, the Packers were featured on Monday Night Football just once in 2011, a season after winning the franchise's fourth Super Bowl. Green Bay sliced up Minnesota, 45-7 as 13-point home favorites in Week 10, but the Packers own a dreadful 1-6 SU/ATS in McCarthy's tenure in Monday action away from Lambeau Field. The lone victory in this span came at Denver in 2007, as Brett Favre hooked up with Jennings on an 82-yard bomb to start overtime in a 19-13 triumph as three-point underdogs. Rodgers is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in road Monday affairs since being named the starting quarterback in 2008.

Seattle has won each of its last four home Monday night games the last six seasons, including a 34-24 victory over Green Bay in 2006 as 9 ½-point favorites. Granted, this number is a bit skewed since Mike Holmgren won three of those games when the Seahawks were a consistent playoff team. However, the Seahawks did beat the Rams last season on a Monday night in December, 30-13, as eight-point 'chalk.'

The Packers are listed three-point favorites at most spots, but the juice is at -120 at that number, while several books have Green Bay set at 3 ½. The total is listed between 46 ½ and 47, as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 3 Preview: Packers at Seahawks

GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-1)

at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-1)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 46½

Seattle looks for a rare win over Green Bay when the teams meet Monday Night at CenturyLink Field.

Since the turn of the century, the Packers have won six of seven meetings in this series, going 4-1-2 ATS. The Seahawks just dominated the Cowboys in a 27-7 win at home last week, and now they’ll have a chance to surprise a Green Bay offense that isn’t quite hitting on all cylinders yet. The Pack did get some extra prep time after playing a Thursday night game last week, a win over Chicago behind a great defensive performance. They’ve faced two top-notch defenses in San Francisco and Chicago, both at home, and their offense has managed as many turnovers as touchdowns (three). Seattle is playing conservatively on offense with rookie QB Russell Wilson under center, but its defense has been excellent through the first two games. The Seahawks have the best Monday Night Football record in the history of the league at 17-8 SU (68%).

Can the Packers prevail in a tough Monday night environment? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been pretty good against Seattle in his career, completing 62% of his passes for 445 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in two starts. He’s struggled somewhat to begin the 2012 season with 6.9 YPA, 3 TD and 2 INT, while taking eight sacks. Last year, Rodgers threw for 9.2 YPA, 45 TD and 6 INT. One of the reasons his numbers are down is because top WR Greg Jennings hasn’t been healthy. He missed the last game with a groin injury and is questionable to suit up on Monday as well. TE Jermichael Finley has been the team’s most-targeted pass catcher, but he has a mere 73 yards on these 17 targets. WR Jordy Nelson (16 targets) leads the team with 148 yards, while Randall Cobb has caught 10 of his 11 targets, but has gained just 97 yards. Green Bay’s ground game more than doubled its production from Week 1 against San Francisco (45 yards) to last Thursday versus Chicago (106 yards), but the team also carried the ball twice as much. The Packers forced four Bears turnovers last week, which helped contribute to the paltry 168 total yards they gained on the day. Green Bay has the league’s best pass rusher in OLB Clay Matthews Jr. who has tallied an NFL-best six of his team’s 11 sacks so far this season.

Wilson showed much better poised last week (112.7 QB rating) than he did in his NFL debut against Arizona (625 QB rating). He completed 15-of-20 passes for 151 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT in the drubbing of Dallas. Wilson knows his offense is not powerful enough to overcome his mistakes, which is why he’s more of a game manager than gunslinger. Wilson will also be more comfortable with the likely return of starting LT Russell Okung, who missed last week due to a bruised knee. The Seahawks will continue to pound the football with bruising back Marshawn Lynch. He already has 207 rushing yards this season (3rd-most in league) with an NFC-most 47 carries. He has faced Green Bay just once in his career, posting a pedestrian 64 yards on 17 carries (3.8 YPC) in a 34-7 loss in Week 2 of the 2010 season when Lynch was with Buffalo. With Lynch on offense and a stout front seven on defense, the Seahawks are crushing their opponents on the ground, outgaining them 297 to 92 in the two games. Seattle has forced two turnovers in each of its two contests, but has not been strong in pass defense, surrendering 457 passing yards and 6.0 YPA. That doesn’t bode well against the potent Green Bay air attack.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 3

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Monday Night Football: Packers at Seahawks
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Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (3, 44.5)

After splitting their first two games at Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will take their high-octane offense to the Pacific Northwest for a Monday night date with the Seattle Seahawks. Rodgers wasn't even the star of the show in the Packers' last game on Sept. 13 as the defense flustered Jay Cutler and the NFC North rival Chicago Bears in a 23-10 triumph. Seattle's defense wasn't too shabby in its own right last week, keeping Tony Romo and Dallas under wraps en route to a 27-7 victory.

As for Rodgers, the Packers quarterback is used to being the target of opposing defenses. This past week, however, the league's reigning MVP was on the receiving end of a jab from Green Bay tight end Jermichael Finley's agent, who used his Twitter account to take aim at Rodgers' leadership abilities. Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch has certainly stepped up as the leader for his team, amassing 207 yards and a touchdown while dealing with the lingering effects of a balky back.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Packers -3, O/U 44.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with a 20 percent chance of showers. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-1): Greg Jennings sat out last week's game versus Chicago with a groin injury, but returned to practice earlier this week. The talented wideout, however, was held out of practice on Thursday following a setback in his recovery and is uncertain in his return for Monday game. Running back Cedric Benson responded to criticism following a paltry season-opening performance to rush for 81 yards in Week 2. The backfield, however, will likely be crowded with the return of last season's leading rusher James Starks, who has been plagued by a nagging turf toe injury.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-1): While coach Pete Carroll would be well served to utilize Lynch and keep Rodgers and company off the field, rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will still need to come up timely plays. The former Wisconsin star, who beat out ex-Packers backup Matt Flynn for the starting job, will need to cast a wary eye on NFL sacks leader Clay Matthews (six sacks). Seattle has enough trouble throwing the ball as it is, averaging a league-low 136 passing yards this season.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 3-0-2 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Packers haven't fared well on Monday nights since Rodgers took the helm of the club. Green Bay is 0-4 when playing away from Lambeau Field.

2. Seahawks WR Sidney Rice suffered an apparent head injury during the third quarter against Dallas. Rice returned to the contest and was not listed on the
team's injury report this week.

3. Green Bay has won the last three meetings versus Seattle and six of seven dating to 2003. The clubs have split their four games in the Pacific Northwest.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Monday Night Football line moves

As the crowd noise rises in CenturyLink Field, the total for Monday night’s game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks falls.

The over/under number has been bet down from as high as 47.5 points to as low as 44 heading into Monday’s primetime game in Seattle. As of Monday, nine of the 15 Week 3 games have finished below the number.

According to Jay Rood, sportsbook director for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, the smart money has come in on the under but, as is the case with most standalone games, there is no shortage of over bets made by the public. The total is currently sitting at 45 points.

“I think the best unit on the field right now is Seattle’s defense,” Rood told Covers. “They’re playing at the highest level, compared to Seattle’s offense, Green Bay’s offense and Green Bay’s defense. If you believe that, the 46 and 45 points seem too high.”

Rood also points to the Packers' once-potent offense, which is averaging just 247 passing yards per game after putting up 307.8 yards an outing last season. Star QB Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played to his MVP-caliber level, tossing three touchdowns to two interceptions and touting an 89.9 passer rating -14th in the NFL.

Green Bay also has a laundry list of ailments for some of Rodgers’ top targets, like Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb and tight end Tom Crabtree. All three are expected to play through injuries Monday.

Rood doesn’t expect the spread, which stands at Green Bay -3, to move from the key field-goal number, even though the majority of wagers are coming in on the favorite.

“If I believe it’s going to be a short game, and I do, looking to go to 3.5 could be detrimental,” he says. “If it lands on three, everybody kisses their sisters and goes home. If we go to 3.5, then we’re on the hook for a side.”

The Packers are 3-0-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Seahawks. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four encounters between these teams.