The bum's 2012 nfl sept. Best bets !

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Thursday, September 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:20 PM ET Chicago +5.5 500

Green Bay - Over 51.5 500

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Drew Brees, Saints Look To Bounce Back at Carolina

It was the Week 1 game that had everyone talking, and it just might end up spelling trouble for the Carolina Panthers though they had nothing to do with it.

Robert Griffin III will never forget his official NFL debut no matter what else he may achieve in his career. The 2011 Heisman Trophy winner led his Washington Redskins to a tremendous upset to get the pro football campaign rolling, tossing a pair TDs and throwing for more than 300 yards in a 40-32 victory in New Orleans against the Saints who were giving eight points. That should have Drew Brees and Company in a bad mood when they travel to Charlotte for Sunday's matchup with the Panthers.

Oddsmakers and a lot of bettors apparently think it's the Saints who are in trouble, not Carolina. New Orleans opened as a 3-point favorite, but was quickly down to -2½ at most shops in Las Vegas monitored by the Don Best Pro Odds. A couple of offshore sites had the Saints at -1 for the NFC South battle.

NFL betting windows posted a total in the 50½-51 span for Sunday's kickoff at Bank of America Stadium which is part of FOX's early broadcast lineup.

Perhaps it was a perfect storm that led to New Orleans' loss to Washington, starting with Griffin's effort and Mike Shanahan's coaching record in season openers, now 15-4 and counting. There was also all of the offseason turmoil surrounding the Saints who spent the entire preseason planning around suspensions only to have DE Will Smith and LB Jon Vilma pardoned two days before the season opener. Vilma did not play as he continues to recover from knee surgery in the offseason while Smith started and got in on four tackles.

All eyes will be on the defense this Sunday after the 'Skins rolled up 464 yards of total offense in Week 1. Saints defenders never intimidated Griffin into turning the ball over as Washington ended with a clean slate in that column. Brees and the New Orleans offense coughed up three TO's, meanwhile, his second of two picks turning into the Redskins' final seven points.

Carolina is also coming off at setback as chalk after falling 16-10 in Tampa Bay. The Panthers were laying a field goal in the contest and never could recover from a 13-zip halftime deficit that was decided on the ground in the end. The Buccaneers ran for 130 yards to help keep Cam Newton and the Carolina offense off the field with nearly a 25-minute advantage on the clock.

Newton did have over 300 yards through the air, but also threw a pair of INT's and didn't factor at all in the running game as he did so often a year ago. He didn't fare so well against the Saints last season with a combined QB rating below 80 in the two games.

New Orleans has won the last four meetings to take a narrow 6-4 lead in the last 10. The teams split ATS a year ago with home covers and Carolina is 6-2 ATS the last eight. One other winning bet in recent years has been the 'under' when the squads play in Charlotte, an 8-game streak to that side snapped last October at BoA Stadium, a 30-27 Saints win with a 51½-point mark.

Early injury reports list three Carolina players as questionable for Sunday's match, including starting DE Greg Hardy who is nursing a sore shoulder. Reserve guard Jeff Byers (knee) and backup tailback Jonathan Stewart (ankle) are in the same boat.

New Orleans may be without WR Devery Henderson due to a concussion that has him questionable. Nickle cornerback Johnny Patrick is also questionable with an injured right knee.

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NY Jets Soar Into Pittsburgh To Face Steelers

The much maligned New York Jets offense silenced its critics for at least one week. They have a much tougher test on Sunday at an angry Pittsburgh Steelers team.

New York is 6-point ‘dogs on the Don Best NFL odds screen despite their Week 1 success. The total is listed at 41½ and kickoff from Heinz Field in the Steel City is set for 4:25 p.m. (ET).

Coach Rex Ryan’s offense was the laughingstock of the NFL in the preseason (going 0-4 straight up and against the spread). The Jets scored one offensive touchdown in total and it came with third-stringer Greg McElroy at the helm. Both Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow were ineffective and the quarterback situation appeared to have disaster written all over it.

Now fast forward to last Sunday. The Jets scored six touchdowns in a 48-28 home win over Buffalo as 3-point favorites. While two of those scores came on defense and special teams, Sanchez (19-of-27 for 266 yards, three TDs and one pick) looked in midseason form, reenergizing the Jets fan base.

New York’s defense did allow 169 rushing yards to Buffalo running back C.J. Spiller, but a lot came with the game out of reach. All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis had a key interception in the first quarter and while he later suffered a concussion, he’s listed as probable for Sunday.

The Jets have to feel great about their start, but certainly can’t get too overconfident. They went 2-6 SU and ATS away last year as part of a disappointing 8-8 campaign that saw them miss the playoffs for the first time in Ryan’s three years.

Pittsburgh had a tough primetime opener at Denver, losing 31-19 as 2½-point underdogs. Peyton Manning didn’t show any rust with a 129.2 quarterback rating, although Pittsburgh still had a chance to win before Ben Roethlisberger threw a pick-six to Tracy Porter with under two minutes remaining.

Ironically, it was Porter’s interception return for a touchdown versus Manning in the Super Bowl a few years back that iced the game for New Orleans.

Coach Mike Tomlin’s guys did control time of possession against Denver (35-25 minutes) despite rushing for just 75 yards (2.9 ypc). Running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman are carrying the load with Rashard Mendehall (knee) still out indefinitely.

One key this Sunday will be pressuring Sanchez, who was not sacked last week despite the presence of highly-paid Buffalo defensive end Mario Williams. Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau got to Manning just two times without star rusher James Harrison (knee).

Harrison is still listed as questionable this week and there are also questions on the right side of the o-line with guard Ramon Foster (eye) and tackle Marcus Gilbert (knee) both questionable. Pittsburgh should get back safety Ryan Clark (spleen).

The Steelers are consistently elite at home, going 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS last year (the ‘under’ 6-2). They are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.

Pittsburgh hasn’t started a season 0-2 since 2002 and Tomlin will pull out all the stops to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

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Indy Rookie Luck Makes Home Debut Against Vikings

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Preview

Date: 9/16/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Pick'em, O/U 44.5


Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings (1-0 straight-up, 0-1 against the spread) have failed to cover five of their last six games, including the preseason and dating back to last year’s regular-season finale. They needed to rally back for a 26-23 overtime victory in Week 1 against Jacksonville after giving up a 39-yard touchdown pass from Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert to WR Cecil Shorts with 20 seconds remaining. The good news is Minnesota rookie kicker Blair Walsh nailed a game-tying 55-yard field goal as time expired in regulation and then followed that up with a game-winning 38-yarder in OT. Second-year QB Christian Ponder also played well for the Vikings, throwing for 270 yards with no interceptions, while star RB Adrian Peterson showed no ill effects of offseason knee surgery with 84 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Expect Peterson’s workload to increase from 17 carries against an Indianapolis Colts team that gave up 114 yards on the ground and three rushing touchdowns to the Chicago Bears in a 41-21 loss last week.

Indianapolis Colts: Despite coming off a poor season, the Colts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) have still covered four of their past six regular-season games dating back to last year and will see rookie QB Andrew Luck play his first home game after a solid debut last week on the road against the Bears. Luck completed 23-of-45 passes for 309 yards with one touchdown to WR Donnie Avery in the fourth quarter, but he also threw three interceptions. Avery, WR Reggie Wayne and TE Coby Fleener combined for 36 targets from Luck and totaled 18 catches between them for 254 yards. Minnesota’s defense struggled against the pass last week, surrendering 260 yards through the air and two touchdowns from Jacksonville QB Blaine Gabbert, so Indy would be wise to throw the ball around again in hopes of earning their first win of the season.

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Detroit Lions Visit NFC Favorite San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are the newly anointed NFC favorite, but have another tough test on the docket when they host the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football.

San Fran is between a 6½-7 point favorite with a total of 46. NBC will start the broadcast from Candlestick Park in the Bay Area at 8:20 p.m. (ET).

San Francisco had a hard opening game at Green Bay last Sunday, but clearly was the better team in the 30-22 victory as a 6-point road ‘dog. The big advantage came on the ground with a huge 186-45 margin. That helped win the time of possession (33-27 minutes).

The 49ers (+250) have now replaced Green Bay as the favorite in the NFC future odds. The updated Don Best Linemakers Poll for NFL ratings has not been released yet, but San Francisco certainly should move up from the fourth-place tie shared with Pittsburgh prior to Week 1 action.

Second-year coach Jim Harbaugh knew he had an elite defense and running game heading into the season. The passing game with quarterback Alex Smith was the big question and he was 20-for-26 for 211 yards (125.6 rating) against Green Bay. Having two new receivers in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham should do wonders for his confidence all season.

San Francisco had an incredible season last year, but especially at home (8-2 straight up, 8-1-1 against the spread). The one ATS failure came in the 20-17 loss to the Giants as a 2-point favorite in the NFC title game. That outcome would have been different without two key turnovers.

Detroit had a much tougher time in its opening game, a 27-23 win over St. Louis. The Lions were big 9-point home favorites, but needed two separate fourth-quarter comebacks, the second a game-winning touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford to running back Kevin Smith with five seconds left.

Stafford threw for 355 yards overall, but also had three picks, which won’t cut it in San Francisco. Smith led the running game with 62 yards on 13 carries and Detroit will need offensive balance this week after being 31st in the league last year in rushing attempts.

Coach Jim Schwartz is breathing a sigh of relief, but needs to get his guys focused on playing away. The Lions were 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their final five road games last year, including a 45-28 loss to New Orleans in the wild-card playoff round.

Note the ‘over’ was 8-1 in Detroit’s road games last year, allowing 37 PPG in the final five where the competition was extremely tough.

The Lions have some key injuries with cornerbacks Chris Houston (ankle) and Bill Bentley (concussion) both questionable. Safety Louis Delmas (knee) is also out indefinitely. The tailback Smith is starting because Mikel Leshoure (suspension) and Jahvid Best (concussion) are still out.

This is a rematch of the infamous San Francisco comeback win (25-19) in Detroit last October. Harbaugh and Schwartz got into an exchange during the postgame handshake, although both say the issue is well in the past.

That final score snuck ‘under’ the 45-point total and the ‘under’ is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the teams overall, 6-0 in the last six in San Francisco.

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KC Chiefs Seek Revenge Sunday At Buffalo Bills

One rather unique aspect of English sports bookmaking is the “first manager to be sacked” prices listed at the beginning of each season in the EPL. (In case you’re interested, Southampton’s Nigel Adkins is currently the favorite at 5/2).

We suspect if similar odds were to be quoted on NFL head coaches, Buffalo’s Chan Gailey might be the shortest-priced option on the board.

Although it’s still early in the 2012 campaign, it’s already becoming nervous time for the Bills...and Gailey in particular. Last week’s humbling 48-28 loss in the opener against the Jets continued a nosedive that commenced in the middle of last season.

About the only saving grace for Buffalo is that visiting Kansas City enters Orchard Park on Sunday with its own set of concerns. It might not be much of an edge, but these days, the Bills will take any advantage they can get.

Oddsmakers in fact are suggesting that Gailey and Buffalo might have a chance to get back on the right track on Sunday. As noted on the Don Best NFL odds screen, the Bills are listed as 3-point favorites at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total at 45 shaded to the 'under.'

Kickoff time at Ralph Wilson Stadium will be 1:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing TV coverage.

The case for Buffalo, however, is not an easy one to construct, especially on the technical side. That opening loss to the Jets dropped the Bills’ 10-game mark (stretching to just before midseason a year ago) to 1-9 straight up and 2-8 against the number. Moreover, Buffalo failed to cover all four of its chances as a home favorite last season and is just 1-6 vs. the spread its last seven as home chalk.

And, while we know preseason doesn’t mean much, the Bills also lost all four of their exhibition games. Counting those, Buffalo is now 1-13 SU in its last 14 games. If the saying “winning begets winning” means anything, Gailey’s team is at a further disadvantage at the moment.

About the only technical plus we can find for the Bills this week is that they did wallop the Chiefs, 41-7, in last year’s opener at Arrowhead, although Kansas City was a decimated squad at the outset of 2011, and Buffalo was actually winning games last September. Obviously, however, much has changed since.

There is a possibility, however, that Buffalo could be the lesser of two evils in this matchup. Kansas City is also 0-1 after being humbled in its opener by Atlanta, 40-24. In addition, the Chiefs’ defense was depleted last week with the absence of four key contributors. We can only be confident about one of those (LB Tamba Hali, having served a league-mandate one-game suspension) being back on the field at Orchard Park; Safety Kendrick Lewis (shoulder), CB Brandon Flowers (heel) and DT Anthony Toribio (ankle) were all inactive last week. Those three all remain iffy for action on Sunday.

Romeo Crennel’s defense, which helped fuel a late-season charge a year ago, is also hoping that Memphis rookie NT Dontari Poe can help upgrade what was a somewhat leaky run defense a year ago. Results were mixed in the opener, as the Falcons rushed for only 85 yards but also didn’t worry too much about establishing the infantry as QB Matt Ryan was able to throw successfully whenever he wished. Poe was very active in his debut, although that is not exactly what the coaches are looking with a two-gap, 3-4 nose tackle who is supposed to stay at home and clog this middle. Poe remains a work in progress.

Capitalizing on these potential Chief shortcomings, however, could be problematic for the Bills after they lost top runner Fred Jackson to a knee injury in the Jets opener. Jackson, expected to be out at least a month, has thus ceded the feature-back role to ex-Clemson charge C.J. Spiller, who has flashed real upside in brief spurts in the past but now must assume a heavier workload.

What concerns Bills fans most, however, is not whether Jackson or Spiller carries the ball, but rather QB Ryan Fitzpatrick keeping better care of the pigskin. Picking up where where he left off in the disastrous second half of '11, Fitzpatrick tossed three more picks in the opener against the Jets, continuing a dizzying interception rate after leading the league in picks with 23 a year ago.

Belatedly, Fitzpatrick padded his stats late in the New York opener after the Jets were conceding yardage with a huge lead late in the game, but don’t be fooled; Fitzpatrick is a liability at the moment, and many AFC East sources believe the under-fire Gailey (who can’t afford a slow break from the gate if he wants to keep is job) is not far away from looking to his bullpen for help. Recently-acquired former Vikings and Seahawks starter Tarvaris Jackson could get the call soon if Fitzpatrick continues to implode.

Also disturbing to Bills fans is the continuing underachievement of a defense that continues to prove the definition of the parts being greater than the sum. Well-publicized and supposed upgrades in the offseason included landing prized free-agent DE Mario Williams from Houston, plus DE Mark Anderson from the Patriots and highly-regarded South Carolina rookie CB Stephon Gilmore in the first round of the April NFL Draft, Buffalo’s stop unit was feeble vs. the Jets.

As for new DEs Williams and Anderson, they could only have been less factors had they not dressed for the game; the supposedly improved Bills pass rush, one of the worst in the league last season when recording only 29 sacks, allowed Mark Sanchez to sit unbothered in the pocket all afternoon when he was never sacked, or much less touched, helping contribute to the Jets converting 10-of-14 third-down tries.

Buffalo’s defense, which allowed a franchise-record 5,938 yards and second-worst all-time 434 points last season, hardly looks improved for defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt. This could pose severe problems against Kansas City QB Matt Cassel, who has better receiving options at his disposal than do the Jets.

If there is one technical edge to be gleaned from Buffalo’s defensive downturn it’s that it has contributed to a spate of higher-scoring games since last season; the Bills are now 'over' 11-6 since the beginning of the 2011 campaign following the 76 combined points posted with the Jets in the opener.

One positive for the Chiefs in their opener vs. the Falcons was the return to action of RB Jamaal Charles, who went down for the count in Week 2 last September due to a knee injury but looked good upon his regular-season return vs. the Falcons, gaining 87 yards on 16 carries, including one 45-yard run in which he looked like the Charles of old.

In an opening week in which neither the Bills nor the Chiefs had much to cheer about, Charles’ performance was at least an encouraging development for Kansas City. We’re hard pressed to think of one of the same for Buffalo.

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Titans Look To Even Record At San Diego Chargers

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers NFL Betting Preview

Date: 9/16/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET) CBS
Opening Lines: Chargers -7, OU 44

Tennessee Titans: New England pasted a 34-13 loss on the Titans (0-1 straight up and against the spread) in Nashville during Week 1. Tennessee trailed by 18 at the half, and the five points the Titans were getting on the closing line never came close to helping their backers. Adding injury to insult was QB Jake Locker suffering a left shoulder injury, though he is probable for Sunday's game in San Diego. Both Locker and backup Matt Hasselbeck were efficient enough (combined 29-of-43), but the Titans never could get anything going on the ground even early in the game as Chris Johnson was held to just four yards on 11 carries. Tennessee was 4-4 on the road last year, but has lost its last five in San Diego and covered just one of those.

San Diego Chargers: Norv Turner and the Chargers (1-0 SU & ATS) posted a 22-14 upset as 1-point underdogs at Oakland this past Monday evening. Nate Kaeding provided the bulk of the scoring for the Bolts with five field goals, two at the end of drive that stalled inside the Raiders' 20. San Diego benefitted from a mistake-prone Raiders squad. Philip Rivers enjoyed a 24-of-33 night for 231 yards through the air, but San Diego never got anything going on the ground with Ryan Mathews injured and on the sidelines. Mathews is questionable for Sunday's game with the same collarbone issue. The Chargers are 16-6 SU their last 22 at home, and have won and covered the last seven meetings between the clubs since the Titans moved to Tennessee. Three of the previous four clashes in San Diego have gone 'over' the total.

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Eagles And Ravens Fly Into Sunday Showdown

There’s an intense Battle of the Birds on Sunday afternoon when the Philadelphia Eagles play host to the Baltimore Ravens.

Philadelphia ranges between a 1-2½ point home favorite on the Don Best NFL odds screen, a bigger variation than normal. The total is 46½ for this 1:00 p.m. (ET) CBS broadcast from Lincoln Financial Field.

These teams play in different conferences, but there is somewhat of a natural rivalry with the cities only 105 miles apart. They met in the preseason last year, but this is the first real matchup since 2008 (Baltimore winning 36-7).

Baltimore was one of the most successful teams of Week 1, winning 44-13 at home versus Cincinnati. Getting an early division win was huge, but so was seeing quarterback Joe Flacco (21-of-29 for 299 yards, two TDs and no picks) engineer the new no-huddle offense so efficiently.

The development of Flacco as an elite quarterback could get the Ravens over the Super Bowl hump, similar to Eli Manning and the Giants. Baltimore should have won the AFC title game in New England last year, and this offense will be extremely dangerous if the passing game matches Ray Rice and the running attack.

One interesting note on the Ravens’ fast offensive start: They had three 30-plus scoring games in the first four contests last year (‘over’ 4-0 overall) and just two the whole rest of the season.

Coach John Harbaugh’s team answered some questions on defense as well against Cincy. Pass rusher extraordinaire Terrell Suggs is out at least the first six games. Linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed had huge games and aren’t slowing down much despite being age 37 and 34 respectively.

Note Baltimore is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Sunday games following an MNF tilt.

The Eagles have Super Bowl aspirations of their own, but didn’t play up to that caliber in Week 1. Their 17-16 win at Cleveland as 9-point favorites needed a Mike Vick game-winning touchdown pass with 1:18 left in the game.

Vick needed to make amends for a poor overall performance that included four interceptions and a 51 quarterback rating. His ability to produce consistent winning play at quarterback is a major question in addition to his always-present health concerns.

Fortunately, the Eagles were matched up against a rookie signal caller in Brandon Weeden, who threw four picks of his own and had an embarrassing 5.1 rating. The Eagles run defense does get credit for holding rookie running back Trent Richardson to 39 yards on 19 carries, but he was coming off a knee injury and Rice will be a much tougher challenge.

A look at the Don Best injury report shows Baltimore center Matt Birk (thigh) listed as questionable. There has been shifting on the offensive line already with Michael Oher moved to the left tackle ‘blindside,’ made famous by the movie on his life.

Philadelphia has both of its starting receivers dinged up in DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and Jeremy Maclin (hip). However, both returned to practice on Friday after sitting out Thursday and are listed as probable.

Vick certainly needs both healthy, but mostly has to focus on his own game and play-mistake free. He can’t count on the running attack against Baltimore even with the talented LeSean McCoy.

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Week 2 Tips

September 13, 2012

Starting the NFL season at 0-2 is usually bad news for teams that want to qualify for the playoffs. Back in 2007, the Giants lost their first two games and won the Super Bowl against the previously unbeaten Patriots, while three teams in 2008 made the postseason after beginning 0-2. However, those are the exceptions as many clubs try to get on track this Sunday. Four games involve teams that are each 0-1, including two playoff clubs from last season (Saints and Bengals). We'll start in Buffalo with a pair of squads that each lost by double-digits last week.

Chiefs at Bills (-3, 45) - 1:00 PM EST

The expectations were raised for Buffalo in the preseason following the signing of defensive end Mario Williams and a healthy team returning. However, the Bills were knocked down early in a 48-28 drubbing to the Jets as three-point road underdogs, as Buffalo has won just one game since last Halloween (including preseason). The Chiefs head to Orchard Park following a 40-24 loss to the Falcons as short home 'dogs, the fifth consecutive opening day loss for Romeo Crennel, dating back to his time in Cleveland.

Kansas City outgained Atlanta, 393-376, but turned the ball over three times, while allowing three touchdown passes by Matt Ryan. The Chiefs were plagued by the three turnovers, all from quarterback Matt Cassel, while getting outscored 23-7 after the game was tied at 17-17 late in the first half. Kansas City cashed in four of five opportunities as a single-digit road underdog last season, including outright victories at Chicago, Denver, and Oakland.

The Bills were pretty much even in first downs and yardage against New York, but the Jets picked up a pair of touchdowns via defense and special teams. Buffalo will likely be without top running back Fred Jackson, who suffered a knee injury after six carries. Former Clemson standout C.J. Spiller filled in with 169 yards, including a 56-yard touchdown scamper. The Bills look for another blowout of the Chiefs after destroying Kansas City in last season's opener, 41-7 as 3 ½-point 'dogs.

Saints (-2 ½, 51 ½) at Panthers - 1:00 PM EST

Both these NFC South rivals were tripped up in the favorite role in Week 1, as New Orleans heads to Charlotte going for its fifth straight win over the Panthers. The Saints allowed 459 yards of offense to Robert Griffin III and the Redskins in a 40-32 loss at the Superdome as eight-point favorites, the first home defeat (both SU and ATS) since Week 17 of 2010. The Panthers couldn't get any offense going at Tampa Bay, dropping a 16-10 decision as three-point 'chalk,' as Carolina rushed for just 10 yards on 13 carries.

New Orleans continues to play without head coach Sean Payton, who is suspended the entire season due to the "Bountygate" scandal. The Saints' defense looked disjointed in the opener, but New Orleans comes into Sunday's matchup owning a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS record inside the NFC South last season. The history between these two teams is tough to gauge since they have met in Week 17 five times since 2004 in meaningless games. In 2011, the Saints swept the season series from the Panthers, including a 30-27 victory as six-point favorites last October.

The Panthers were an exciting team last season with Cam Newton throwing the ball all over the field, but Carolina won just six games. Since starting 2011 with a 5-2 ATS record, the Panthers are just 4-6 ATS, including the loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday. Expect a high-scoring game from Carolina this week, as the Panthers cashed the 'over' four of five times last season after scoring 21 points or less.

Raiders (-2 ½, 38 ½) at Dolphins - 1:00 PM EST

Oakland's offense was disappointing in Monday night's home defeat to San Diego, scoring just one touchdown in a 22-14 setback as short favorites. The Raiders now travel cross-country to take the Dolphins, who are also struggling to find a rhythm offensively after getting blown out at Houston, 30-10. Miami failed to cash as 13-point underdogs, while the lone touchdown came on a Marcus Thigpen 72-yard punt return for a score in the third quarter.

The Dolphins turn to Ryan Tannehill once again under center, as the rookie threw three interceptions against the Texans, leading to a pair of Houston touchdowns. After going 2-12 SU from 2009 through midway 2011, Miami has won four of its last five games at Sun Life Stadium, including a 34-13 rout of the Raiders. In that victory, the Dolphins rushed for 209 yards, but Miami will be without third-down running back Daniel Thomas, who suffered a concussion last week.

The Silver and Black held the Chargers to five field goals on Monday, but Oakland also had several special teams' mishaps that gave San Diego excellent field position. The Raiders own a dreadful 1-12 ATS mark since 2005 as a favorite off a loss, while laying points on the highway for the first time in seven seasons.

Browns at Bengals (-7, 38 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

The battle of Ohio takes place at Paul Brown Stadium as Cincinnati attempts to put Monday night's ugly loss at Baltimore behind them. The Bengals were blown out by last season's AFC runner-up, 44-13, as the Ravens scored the final 27 points of the game. The Browns had an excellent opportunity to knock off the Eagles as nine-point home underdogs, but Michael Vick's late touchdown pass gave Philadelphia a 17-16 victory.

Cleveland has showcased five different starting quarterbacks the last five opening days, as Brandon Weeden barely impressed by putting up a quarterback rating of 5.4 The former Oklahoma State standout tossed four interceptions, while the Browns' defense picked off Vick four times. In spite of the loss, the Browns improved to 7-1 ATS in the last eight games since November, while posting a 4-0 ATS record on the road.

Cincinnati has lost nine of its past 13 divisional contests, as the Bengals are 4-8-1 ATS in this stretch. The Bengals look to sure up their pass defense after Joe Flacco threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns in Monday's rout. Since 2009, Marvin Lewis' team is just 3-12 ATS as a home favorite, including a non-cover against Cleveland last season in a 23-20 win as 6 ½-point 'chalk.'

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Gridiron Angles - Week 2

September 14, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Saints are 10-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since 2008 after a loss where they allowed at least 28 points.

-- The Bengals are 0-11 OU (-8.8 ppg) since January 2006 following a game where they allowed at least 10 points more than expected and the game went over by 5+ points.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- East Carolina is 12-0-1 ATS (12.3 ppg) since 2003 without an extra week’s rest as a dog of more than a point, when they allowed at least 41 points last game.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Purdue is 0-7 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since 2006 when facing a team which suffered one of its first two losses of the season last game and it was by at least 13 points.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams which won in week one after winning four or fewer games last season are just 10-20-3 ATS in database history in week two. Active against Minnesota and Tampa Bay.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Jets are 8-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) since January 2010 when they are off a game that went over the total in which they benefitted from a two-plus takeaway margin.

USER TREND:

-- Home teams are 0-14-1 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since 1994 at home after losing as a dog in week one while playing a team while lost as a favorite. Active against Miami.

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NFL Week 2 Preview: Jets at Steelers

NEW YORK JETS (1-0)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -5½, Total: 41½

The Jets look to build on their surprising offensive success in Week 1 when they go on the road to face the Steelers’ aging defense on Sunday afternoon.

Gang Green definitely got an assist from four Buffalo turnovers in their opener, but their offense still managed four touchdowns (after scoring only one in the preseason). Pittsburgh is coming off its second straight loss dating to last season, both in Denver. FS Ryan Clark returns for Week 2, and Pittsburgh could also have OLB James Harrison (knee) back as well. The Steelers once again have a rash of injuries across the offensive line, though the Jets’ middling pass rush didn’t record a sack on 32 Ryan Fitzpatrick drop backs last week.

Can the Steelers avoid an 0-2 hole with a convincing win over the Jets? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Jets QB Mark Sanchez had a tremendous game to begin the 2012 season, completing 19-of-27 passes for 266 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. This will be the third time Sanchez faces the Pittsburgh defense. In 2010, he led his Jets to a 22-17 win in the Steel City, completing 19-of-29 passes for 170 yards, while rushing for a touchdown. The teams met again in the AFC Championship that year, with Sanchez nearly bringing his club back from a 24-0 deficit, by throwing two touchdown passes as part of 233 yards in a 24-19 loss. New York will try to run the football, even using backup QB Tim Tebow in the wildcat formation, but the Jets have gained just 176 yards on 49 carries (3.6 YPC) in the past two meetings with Pittsburgh. New York rushed for only 3.3 YPC in last week’s win over Buffalo, but Shonn Greene had an adequate 94 yards on 27 carries (3.5 YPC) and a touchdown. Defensively, the Jets will try to build upon their four turnovers forced against the Bills. Although they will probably have the services of CB Darrelle Revis (concussion), DT Sione Po’uha (back) and S Eric Smith (knee) are both not likely to play.

The Steelers also have some injuries of concern, with RB Jonathan Dwyer (foot) and OLs Ramon Foster (eye) and Marcus Gilbert (knee) all questionable for this game. QB Ben Roethlisberger played terribly in that 2011 AFC Championship win over the Jets, completing just 10-of-19 passes for 133 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. He wasn’t spectacular in the season-opening loss to Denver either, completing just 22-of-40 passes for 245 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. But because the Steelers’ ground game is in bad shape with Dwyer, Isaac Redman (groin) and Rashard Mendenhall (torn ACL recovery) not close to 100 percent, the game plan will probably call for a pass-heavy offense. Defensively, getting star OLB James Harrison back will help put the pressure on Sanchez. Pittsburgh sacked Peyton Manning twice last week, but the new Broncos QB burned them for 253 passing yards and two touchdowns.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 2 Preview: Ravens at Eagles

BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-0)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -2½, Total: 46½

After a struggle in Cleveland, the Eagles will look to straighten things out when they host the Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

The Browns proved to have a surprisingly fast defense in Week 1, forcing five Philly turnovers. The Eagles still managed 456 yards of offense, including 91 on a game-winning drive in the final two minutes. Baltimore’s D is big and physical, but may not match up quite as well with the Eagles’ speed. The Ravens might have the offense to keep up with Philly, after they’ve adopted a no-huddle, more up-tempo attack this season, which resulted in a 44-13 drubbing of the Bengals on Monday night.

Which team will improve to 2-0 on the season? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco had a huge performance on Monday night, completing 21-of-29 passes for 299 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. The no-huddle offense seemed to fluster the Bengals, as Baltimore scored on seven of its nine full drives. Flacco completed multiple passes to seven different teammates, but targeted TE Dennis Pitta nine teams, completing five of those passes for 73 yards. The Ravens’ ground game was also clicking with 122 yards on just 23 carries (5.3 YPC). Ray Rice rumbled for 68 yards and two touchdowns, needing only 10 carries to do so. Baltimore’s defense has a new coordinator in Dean Pees, but some familiar faces led the way in Week 1. DT Haloti Ngata notched two sacks, LB Ray Lewis had 14 tackles (11 solo) and one sack, while S Ed Reed had an interception return for a touchdown. Reed scored on a 107-yard INT return the last time the Ravens faced the Eagles, as part of a 36-7 blowout win back in 2008. The one negative for the Baltimore defense in Week 1 was allowing Cincinnati to run for 129 yards on 28 carries (4.6 YPC), which could be a problem with the talented ball carriers for Philadelphia.

The Eagles know they can move the football, but they’ll have a much harder time if WR Jeremy Maclin (hip flexor) doesn’t play. Maclin was targeted 14 times on Sunday, catching half of those passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. Even with QB Michael Vick throwing the football 56 times against the Browns (career-high-tying 4 INT), the Eagles still rushed the ball 30 times, picking up 150 yards. McCoy had 110 of those on his 20 carries and could get even more action if Maclin can’t play. Philly’s defense came out aggressive against rookie QB Brandon Weeden and picked off four of his passes and saddled him with a 5.1 QB rating (12-for-35, 118 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT). Cleveland gained just 210 yards and 3.6 yards per play for the afternoon.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 2 Preview: Lions at 49ers

DETROIT LIONS (1-0)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -6½, Total: 46

After knocking off the Packers in Week 1, the 49ers meet another playoff team when they host the Lions on Sunday night.

The lasting image from the Niners’ win in Detroit last October was the head coaches jawing on the way to the locker room. It overshadowed an incredibly tight game. The Lions had the edge in turnovers (2-0) and were outgained by only four yards (314-310), but San Francisco ran all over them (203 yards) and shut down two potential game-winning drives in the final minutes. This time the game will be in San Francisco, where the 49ers were dominant a year ago. They looked as good as ever in last week’s win in Green Bay, while the Lions needed last-second heroics just to knock off the lowly Rams at home.

Can the 49ers win comfortably for the second straight week? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Lions QB Matthew Stafford had a mistake-filled Week 1 (three interceptions), but he still finished with 355 passing yards and a game-winning TD pass to Kevin Smith with 10 seconds left. Stafford targeted five players at least five times each, led by WR Calvin Johnson (6 rec, 111 yds) and TE Brandon Pettigrew (5 rec, 77 yds). Detroit actually did a decent job running the football with 4.6 yards per carry, as Smith rushed 13 times for 62 yards (4.8 YPC) and 1 TD. On the other side of the ball, the Lions held St. Louis to 250 total yards and just 3.0 yards per carry. However, San Francisco’s rushing offense will present a much greater challenge for this Detroit team that has lost 11 straight road trips to San Francisco.

Niners QB Alex Smith came out throwing in Week 1, connecting on 20-of-26 passes for 211 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. The one negative is that he was sacked four times. Despite Smith’s heroics, the star of the upset win in Green Bay was RB Frank Gore who rushed for 112 yards on just 16 carries (7.0 YPC) including a 23-yard TD run in the fourth quarter. Gore has also run all over Detroit in his career. In four games (all 49ers wins), he has 501 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and 4 TD, while adding 132 more yards on 12 receptions. The 49ers defense has been outstanding in the past eight games in this series, holding Detroit to less than 20 points in each contest.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 2 Preview: Titans at Chargers

TENNESSEE TITANS (0-1)

at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (1-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -6, Total: 43

The Chargers look to retain their dominance over the Titans when the two teams meet Sunday afternoon at San Diego.

Since relocating from Houston to Tennessee, the Titans are 0-7 in this series, losing those games by a combined 206-96 margin. Tennessee will get top WR Kenny Britt back from a one-game suspension in some capacity, though he will not play full-time coming off multiple knee surgeries. Meanwhile, RB Chris Johnson is coming off the worst game of his career (11 carries, four yards against New England). San Diego has question marks of its own and historically starts slow. And with LT Jared Gaither (back) likely out again, the Chargers could have trouble keeping Philip Rivers upright. But they could have starting RB Ryan Mathews (shoulder) back for this one, which would be a big help to a running game that struggled to a paltry 32 yards in the Monday night win in Oakland.

Will the Chargers roll past the Titans yet again? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Chris Johnson is coming off a horrible game versus New England, but he’s certainly capable of carving up San Diego with 261 total yards and 2 TD in two career games versus the Chargers. With backup RB Javon Ringer (elbow infection) questionable, the Titans will need to ride Johnson for most of the afternoon. Jake Locker injured his left shoulder in last week’s loss, but will probably be able to start this game. He was 23-of-32 for 229 yards (7.2 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT against the Patriots, while backup Matt Hasselbeck was 6-of-11 for 43 yards (3.9 YPA), 0 TD and 0 INT. Hasselbeck is actually 4-1 in his career versus San Diego, but has thrown just 3 TD and 5 INT in these five meetings. Whoever takes the snaps will finally have talented WR Kenny Britt as an option in the passing game, but he will be limited to approximately 25 snaps. Starting WR Nate Washington (leg) is also expected to play on Sunday. Defensively, the Titans should have an easier time with a San Diego offense that doesn’t measure up to New England’s. However, the Chargers rolled up 456 yards of offense when these teams last met in 2010, a 33-25 San Diego victory.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers is 4-0 in his career versus Tennessee, completing 68% of his passes for 1,032 yards (258 YPG), 7 TD and 3 INT. He also looked pretty strong in the opener in Oakland, completing 24-of-33 throws for 231 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. Only three of those passes went for more than 20 yards though, as San Diego wide receivers caught a total of eight passes. Star TE Antonio Gates (ribs) has been limited in practice this week, but is expected to start. Mathews thinks he’ll be able to play, but head coach Norv Turner has not yet made a decision on his playing status. The three San Diego running backs combined for 22 yards on 17 carries last week, as neither Curtis Brinkley (10 rush, 12 yds), Ronnie Brown (5 rush, 5 yds) or Le’Ron McClain (2 rush, 5 yds) gained more than six yards on any carry. San Diego’s run-stop unit was top-notch in Week 1 though, holding Oakland to 45 yards on 20 attempts (2.3 YPC). That was the first game for new defensive coordinator John Pagano.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 2 Preview: Broncos at Falcons

DENVER BRONCOS (1-0)

at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-0)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -3, Total: 51

Two high-flying offenses look to continue their air attacks for another week when the Broncos visit the Falcons on Monday night.

Peyton Manning makes his first road start as Denver’s quarterback, but the bigger change among these teams seems to be Atlanta’s offensive philosophy. In Week 1,the Falcons jumped all over the Chiefs in K.C. with an aggressive downfield passing attack. QB Matt Ryan threw for 299 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT with a 136.4 passer rating. Atlanta did have some issues though, as it allowed 152 rushing yards to the Chiefs and lost top CB Brent Grimes to a season-ending injury. The Broncos are coming off a game in which Manning utilized a no-huddle offense to come back and beat the Steelers.

Who will win this expected shootout between the Broncos and Falcons? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Monday will be Peyton Manning’s only indoor game of 2012, a climate in which he has been tremendous in his career. In 111 dome games, Manning has averaged 262 passing YPG with 230 TD and just 97 INT. He has also cleaned up on NFC South opponents in his career, going 7-1 with 2,351 passing yards (8.9 YPA), 24 TD and 4 INT. Manning did a great job spreading the wealth last Sunday night, as WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Eric Decker and TE Jacob Tamme caught five passes each. The running game had its moments against Pittsburgh’s top-ranked yardage and scoring defense from a year ago, grinding out 94 yards on 27 carries (3.5 YPC). Defensively, Denver’s run-stop unit stifled the Steelers (75 yards on 26 carries), and should be able to handle Atlanta’s less-than-stellar ground game.

Falcons QB Matt Ryan completed multiple passes to five different receivers in Week 1, connecting with WR Julio Jones for two of his touchdowns and finding TE Tony Gonzalez for the other score. None of the running backs could get anything going, as Michael Turner (11 rush, 32 yds), Jacquizz Rodgers (7 rush, 22 yds) and Jason Snelling (2 rush, 5 yds) were all bottled up against the Chiefs. Atlanta’s defense also showed some holes, allowing 393 total yards (241 passing, 152 rushing) despite forcing three turnovers. Since 1994, the Falcons have lost five of six meetings (3-3 ATS), including Super Bowl XXXIII following the 1998 season.