The bum's 2012 nfl sept. Best bets !

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Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Some NFL knowledge, with Week 2 bearing down on us........

-- Carolina covered once in its last eight divisional home games.

-- Bucs are 8-2 in last 10 games as non-diviional road underdog.

-- Seahawks covered five of their last six tries as home underdog.

-- Cowboys are 1-8 vs spread in game following their last nine wins.

-- Vikings are 3-10-1 vs spread in last 14 games at AFC squads.

-- 49ers are 9-0-1 against spread in their last ten home games.


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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend........

13) The RGIII bandwagon rolls into St Louis, as Robert Griffin faces the team that got three #1 picks and a #2 pick in exchange for the draft pick Washington used to select the Baylor QB. Rams will play defense better than a rudderless New Orleans team that is still learning Steve Spagnuolo’s system. Jones Dome will be lot quieter than the Superdome was.

12) Last time Tennessee was favored to beat Florida was 2004; second tough road game in row for Gators, who came from behind to beat the Texas Aggies last week.

11) Tampa Bay Rays visit the Bronx this weekend, in a surprisingly big series, for both sides. Three weeks to go in the baseball season, and the playoff picture is still very unclear, especially in the AL.

10) Michael Vick played poorly in the Dawg Pound last week; he needs to play better against a Raven team that’s covered just twice in last 10 games following an appearance on Monday Night Football.

9) Pitt has already lost to Youngstown/Cincinnati, they’re an 11-point home dog to Virginia Tech this week. Not good for a team with a senior QB, even if they are on their 4th head coach in the last three years.

8) Has anyone asked if Stephen Strasburg will have an innings limit again next year? The actual Tommy John threw 200+ innings the first five years after he had the first TJ surgery, but he was in his 30’s then.

7) NFL schedule makers put Denver on at night five times in season’s first eight weeks; they should hit ratings gold in Atlanta Monday night, two good ballclubs.

6) Notre Dame hung 50 points on Navy in Ireland, now after a week off, the Middies visit troubled Penn State, which had another starter defect this week. Tough to prepare for Navy’s option attack in less than a week.

5) Phillies/Brewers are both charging in NL Wild Card race. Two of the three teams they’re chasing, Cardinals/Dodgers have a 4-game series with each other this weekend. The charging teams need a Card-Dodger split this weekend, and obviouly, they need to keep winning themselves.

4) Dolphins/Colts both have winnable games at home; since both are starting rookie QBs, there’s no guarantees they’ll have many more winnable games the rest of the year, especially the Dolphins, who are catching a Raider team in a brutal spot, making a cross country flight after playing the late game Monday night.

3) One of the stranger things this weekend will be arrogant Bronx Bomber fans rooting for the A’s, since the Orioles are in Oakland for three games. A’s will be in the Bronx next weekend, as part of a dicey Detroit-Bronx-Texas road trip.

2) Utah-BYU has always been a bitter rivalry, but with Utes going to Pac-12 and BYU becoming independent, it just isn’t the same. Now comes word Utah QB Jordan Wynn has given up football after suffering another shoulder injury last week. Could be a long year for the Utes.

1) Its been 10 years since the Steelers started a season 0-2; they’ll need to protect Big Ben Sunday to beat the Jets and even their record. Hard to tell how much off last week’s 48-28 Jet win was about the Jets and how much was about the woeful Buffalo Bills.

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Top 5 NFL Trends

HOU
JAC HOU are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

HOU
JAC HOU are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

HOU
JAC Under is 5-0-1 in JAC last 6 vs. AFC South.

HOU
JAC HOU are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

NO
CAR Over is 6-0 in NO last 6 games overall.

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Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 2
We’ll lead off our weekly look at what the Sharps are thinking in the NFL with the reigning SuperBowl Champions. Games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedule.

TAMPA BAY AT NY GIANTS:
The opener here was Giants by 8.5. Sharps were impressed with Tampa Bay’s intensity last week, and know that New York can be spotty as a home favorite (they’re most dangerous when expectations are low, and conversely play down to the level of their opposition when you expect them to outperform). The line has come down to NYG -7 as a result. That also keeps the game out of the two-team teaser window, as anything from 7.5 to 8.5 would encourage teaser players to move the Giants down past both the 7 and the 3 to the -1.5 to 2.5 range. I will only talk about Over/Unders that have seen Sharp influences of at least a point. Nothing yet here.

ARIZONA AT NEW ENGLAND:
No interest from Sharps in this game yet, with the line staying at New England -13.5 and 48.5 or 49 all week. It’s telling that Sharps DIDN’T drive the line to -14. I've told you in the past that any widely available line that settles within a half point of a key numbers gives away Sharp intent. If Sharps wanted the favorite here, they would have jumped all over -13.5, (since its likely that the public will jump on NE, taking the line to two full Tds or more). They didn’t. That tells you Sharps are waiting to see if that scenario plays out on the weekend so they can come in on the big dog at +14 or better.

MINNESOTA AT INDIANAPOLIS:
This line opened at pick-em, and moved to Minnesota -1. That’s not much of a move since games rarely end in a tie. Many Sharps were disappointed with the Colts last week in terms of overall team quality. Andrew Luck is going to be a star, but he’s not surrounded by a lot of talent at the moment, and the defense struggled badly in Chicago. But, even with that, the Vikes only moved a point, possibly because of previous poor performances in this spot, having lost 5 straight and 13 of the last 15 against the AFC, as well as 3 straight vs the Colts.

NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA:
Carolina received support as a home dog here, moving from +3 down to +2.5. Even though it’s only a half-point move, that’s a strong indicator because three is a key number and it takes significant money to move off key numbers. Sharps will typically bet any line TOWARD the three just based on historical percentages. Money moving a game off a three is therefore very significant. Note that there was no buyback on the Saints at -2.5. Sharps are anti-Saints after that poor showing last week vs. Washington, and given all that the franchise has gone through in the offseason. Remember Sharps are dog players by default and will usually side with the pup unless there are compelling reasons not to.

KANSAS CITY AT BUFFALO:
No interest from Sharps here that we can decipher from the line or from discussions with well-placed sources. Both teams struggled last week. An opening line of Buffalo -3 basically says the teams are even and the Bills are getting home field advantage. Sharps would fade any public line move, but this isn’t the kind of game the public usually bets with any passion. If nothing significant changes, Sharps will likely grab the points with KC, as they at least showed signs of life against a good Atlanta squad.

BALTIMORE AT PHILADELPHIA:
Big news on both the side and total here, as an opener of 43.5 is up to 46 because Baltimore looked so good in its up-tempo offense last week. If they’re going to strike deep and often, then they will switch from a team that plays defensive struggles to one that plays shootouts. An opener of Philly -3 has come down to -2.5 as well, because the Ravens looked so good Monday. Given how badly the Eagles played in Cleveland, Sharps are taking Baltimore on the moneyline to win outright. As mentioned in NO/Carolina, the game moved off the three and didn’t go back to the key number. Very important.

OAKLAND AT MIAMI:
Here we have another move off a key number, as Oakland opened at -3 but was bet down to -2.5. It’s not that Sharps love Miami-they looked pretty bad in Houston last week, but the Raiders were also very much out of sync Monday Night vs. San Diego, and are now flying cross country for an early start on a short week. Sharps felt the Raiders were getting too much respect at -3. Nobody of merit has stepped in on the Raiders at -2.5 after the drop. The opening total of 39.5 is down to 38.5 or 38 because both offenses look to be in trouble to start the season.

CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI:
The only interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 40 is down to 38 or 38.5. That may foreshadow weather issues. But, it’s mostly because Cleveland’s offense was so inept last week that Sharps are reluctant to bet Overs in their games! The Browns didn’t score an offensive TD, but did play valiant defense. Same story as last year. Sharps, particularly the stats guys, hit the Under hard when it went up at 40. The Bengals opened at -7 on the team side line and stayed there. Sharps would fade any public move off the key number.

HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE:
Here we have a move on a home dog toward a critical number. Houston opened -7.5 and fell to -7 even though they posted a big win vs. Miami. Jacksonville is a home underdog that tends to get up for its divisional rivals. And they gave Minnesota all they could handle last week. Sharps expect a competitive game, and are backing Jacksonville accordingly.


DALLAS AT SEATTLE:
This may end up being a heavily bet game, but it’s not one showing Sharp tendencies yet. Dallas is -3 on the road after impressing in New York and having extra time to get ready. Sharps absolutely LOVED Seattle last week in Arizona, but have rethought that passion given the disappointing Seahawks performance. The public will likely bet Dallas on game day. Sharps would come in on the home dog IF they can get them at +3.5. We may just see oddsmakers adjust the vigorish because they don’t want to risk getting sided in a game that will draw public action on game day.

WASHINGTON AT ST. LOUIS:
Interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 44 is up to 45.5. That’s based on Washington’s strong offensive showing in New Orleans. They’re playing indoors again this week…which should allow RGIII to take advantage of his legs and his arm. The team side line hasn’t moved off Washington -3 because Sharps aren’t ready yet to lay more than a Fg with a rookie QB on the road. They would bet the dog at +3.5 if the public were to start a Redskins bandwagon. A lot of games on the three this week.

NY JETS AT PITTSBURGH:
Pittsburgh opened at -6 in the marquee matchup amongst the late games. Sharps hit the dog at that line, dropping the line to Jets +5.5. Sharps weren’t impressed with Pittsburgh Sunday Night in Denver, (having backed them solidly and losing, with more than one mentioning Todd Haley's play-calling) and like New York's chances to make this a competitive game. The total hasn’t moved much yet. But, it will drop if weather becomes a factor, particularly because there’s a college game on this field Saturday.

TENNESSEE AT SAN DIEGO:
San Diego fell a point from -7 down to -6 off their Monday night game. Even though they won, they didn’t look very good. Sharps couldn’t accept them as a full TD favorite given their form last year and lackluster performance in the opener against Oakland. This is a big move off a key number, even if it’s only a point, particularly since Sharps could have waited to see if the public bet the Chargers. They didn’t want to wait, and took the TD early. The total has dropped from 44 to 43.

DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO:
This line has frozen at San Francisco by 6.5 with a total of 46. What’s that tell you? If the Sharps liked the favorite, they would have hit that -6.5 immediately. They didn’t, which means they want the dog and are hoping for a +7 (or better) in a Sunday Night TV game that the public has all day to bet. Sharps would likely come in very strong if they saw that seven, and will still get involved with authority on game day if +6.5 is the best they’re going to get.

DENVER AT ATLANTA:
Sharps were impressed with Peyton Manning last week. Atlanta opened here at -3.5 but has been bet down to the key number. That’s something, because Sharps loved Atlanta last week at Kansas City and won with them. The Falcons are a team that Sharps are currently high on…but you can now say that about BOTH of these teams. The total in this Monday Night finale has moved up two points from an opener of 49 to 51. Good quarterbacks playing indoors will draw attention from Sharps, particularly given the high scoring league tendencies last week and during the prime parts of the Preseason.

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Total Talk - Week 2

September 15, 2012

Week 1 Recap

The scoreboard operators were busy last week as a combined 791 points were scored in Week 1. That was the most for an opening week and second most in NFL history. In case you're wondering, the most points scored in a week were 837, which occurred in Week 12 of the 2008 campaign.

Despite the offensive outbursts, the 'over' only went 9-7 in Week 1 and with a couple different bounces, the 'under' could've came out on top. Some games that probably should've stayed 'under' were the Steelers-Colts, Jaguars-Vikings and 49ers-Packers.

As far as awarding the "Bad Beat" of the week, we'll go with the first-half 'under' between the Texans and Dolphins. Most shops closed the total at 21 ½ and it looked like a clear-cut lock with the score tied 3-3 with less than two minutes left in the second. Sure enough, Houston turned three turnovers into three touchdowns and led 24-3 at the break. Those not toying with the halftime wager were fortunate to see 13 points scored in the final two quarters, which helped the game go 'under' the closing number of 41.

Overtime Rules

We mentioned these changes the last two years and while it may or may not matter, it's good to know that you can still cash a late ticket or even worse, lose. From the NFL and other outlets -- each squad will have at least one possession in overtime unless the team that wins the overtime coin flip scores a touchdown on its initial possession. If the team that receives the ball first connects on a field goal, the other team will get a chance to match that score or best it with a TD. If no one scores during the first two possessions of overtime, the game ends automatically on the next score. Should the team with the ball first be forced to punt, or is forced into a turnover, the game reverts to sudden death.

Keep in mind that this was supposed to be for the playoffs only, but the change is now effective for the regular season as well. We first saw the rule come into play last year when Denver stopped Pittsburgh 29-23 in OT of the Wild Card game. Last week, Minnesota and Jacksonville went into overtime. The Vikings scored a field goal on their first possession and the Jaguars couldn't match the three points or score a touchdown, so the game ended and nothing mattered.

Even though it seems impossible, you could see up to 12 points scored in the extra session. How? If Team A scores 3, then Team B matches with 3. The game then heads to the regular season OT format, which could see either Team A or B win the game with a field goal or touchdown. Imagine that bad beat!

Become familiar with it folks!

Line Moves

Personally, I've had the most success following line moves with CRIS, who isn't afraid to take serious action. For this section, that's the outfit that we're going to follow this season.

As of Saturday evening, here are the totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more.

-- Minnesota at Indianapolis: Opened at 44 ½ and has jumped to 46
-- Baltimore at Philadelphia: Opened at 43 ½ and has jumped up to 46
-- Cleveland at Cincinnati: Opened at 40 and has dropped to 38
-- Tennessee at San Diego: Opened at 44 and has dropped to 42 ½
-- Denver at Atlanta: Opened at 49 and has jumped to 51

Divisional Battles

Only four of the 16 games in Week 2 are divisional battles.

Chicago at Green Bay: The Packers beat the Bears 23-10 on Thursday, and the game never threatened the closing number of 50 ½-points. Including this outcome, nine of the last 10 games have stayed 'under' the number. These two meet again on Dec. 16 from Soldier Field and one would expect to see a total in the forties.

New Orleans at Carolina: Last season these two teams saw totals of 51 and 54 points and for the first meeting between the pair this year, the number is hovering between 51 and 52. The 'over' cashed in both games last season as the teams combined for 57 (30-27) and 62 point s (45-17), which were both victories for the Saints. Despite looking sloppy last week, New Orleans still managed to put up 30 points. The problem with the Saints is their defense and it was evident last week, giving up 40 points to the Redskins and a rookie quarterback. Offensively, Carolina looked dreadful in its 16-10 road loss to Tampa Bay. The Panthers did watch the 'over' go 5-3 at home last season but that was aided by a defense that gave up 20-plus points in six of eight at Bank of America Stadium. This year's unit is now healthier and it sort of showed last week versus the Bucs. Unfortunately, the Panthers' offense is hurting and might be without Jonathan Stewart (ankle) again, plus WR Steve Smith (knee) is 'questionable.'

Cleveland at Cincinnati: This game has the lowest total (38) on the board and it's understandable why the early action knocked the number down. Neither of the two teams has a large stable of playmakers on offense and it certainly showed in the first week of the season. The Bengals posted 13 in a road loss to Baltimore while Cleveland scored 16 in a tight setback to Philadelphia. Even though you could be looking at an ugly game, you have to be careful with the low number here. In 2011, the two regular season matchups had similar totals (36.5, 38.5) and they both went 'over' the number, but barely. Cincinnati posted 27-17 and 23-20 wins, the latter of the two coming at home.

Houston at Jacksonville: Seems like a low total (41) for these teams, but the two regular season matchups in 2011 did go 'under' with a combined 38 (24-13) and 33 points (20-13) posted, both Houston victories. The Jaguars did move the ball well against the Vikings and they managed to get five scores, unfortunately three of them were field goals and two were less than 30 yards. The Texans had six scores last week, matching three field goals with three touchdowns in just 12 possessions.

Fearless Predictions

We took off the first week of the season so we can get a better feel of the league and even though we're in Week 2, you should still tread lightly and not read into all of the early outcomes. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Houston-Jacksonville 41

Best Under: Detroit-San Francisco 46.5

Best Team Total: Over Jaguars 17

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 32 Houston-Jacksonville
Under 48.5 Cleveland-Cincinnati
Under 55 Detroit-San Francisco

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Sunday, Monday Games

Bucs (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)—Schiano’s first road game as Bucs’ HC brings him back to New Jersey, where he coached Rutgers for 12 years; both his coordinators coached for Giants, DC Sheridan (’05-’09), OC Sullivan (’04-’11). Much like Green Bay, Giants can’t afford to start year with two home losses; they allowed Dallas to average 9.4 yards/pass attempt in opening loss. Big Blue was only NFL team not to gain 20+ yards on any 1st/2nd down play last week; all three of their explosive plays came on 3rd downs. Bucs held Carolina to 10 yards rushing last week, allowed them to convert only twice on 10 third downs on stormy day. Tampa Bay won its last two road openers, but is 3-5 vs spread in last eight, all as underdog. 14 of their last 19 road openers stayed under total, but only one of last four. Average total in last eight series meetings, 24.4, with Giants winning last three by average score of 22-6.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)—Arizona lost last two visits here, 31-0/47-7; they come in off high after stopping Seattle in red zone at end of 20-16 win in home opener. Looks like Kolb will get start at QB here, after starter Skelton got hurt (high ankle sprain) with Cardinals down 16-13; Kolb then directed winning TD drive. Patriots ran ball for 162 yards last week, passed for 228, unusually good balance for them. Arizona won three of last four road openers, covering all four, after 0-6 skid (1-4-1 vs spread) before that. Redbirds are 9-6-1 vs spread in last 16 tries as an underdog in road openers, with five of last six staying under total. Patriots won last 10 home openers (6-3-1 vs spread), with eight of the ten games going over total; they covered last three home openers that weren’t in Week 1. This is first time since ’00 they host an NFC team in a home opener.

Vikings (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)—Indy’s post-Manning era got off to fast start when defense scored in first 4:00 last week, but they wound up giving up 41 points, NFL-high nine plays of 20+ yards. Colts turned ball over five times, converted just 2 of 10 on 3rd down in rough debut for team with new coach, new QB, new beginning. Vikings rallied to win in OT last week, kicking FGs on four of last five drives, including game-tying 55-yarder. Home team won nine of last ten series games; Vikings lost 31-10/31-28 in two visits here, but Indy had different QB then. Not sure how much these trends mean for them, but Colts are 3-7 in last ten home openers not started by now-departed Manning. Vikes lost six of last eight road openers; since ’88, they’re 1-8 vs spread as favorite in road openers. Four of Indy’s last six home openers went over total; six of Vikings’ last eight road openers stayed under.

Saints (0-1) @ Panthers (0-1)— Takes time to learn Spagnuolo’s defense; New Orleans was riddled by rookie QB RGIII in home opener, giving up 11.5 yards/pass attempt, but they’ve won last four games vs division rival Panthers, scoring 34-30-45 points in last three meetings, winning 34-3/30-27 in last two visits here. Saints are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers (two of five losses were Thursday games)- their last four road openers went over (average total in last five, 59.4). Since ’88, NO is 2-4 vs spread as road favorite in road openers. Panthers ran ball for only 10 yards in opening loss on stormy day in Tampa; Carolina is 4-13 in home openers, 1-7 in last eight, 4-3 vs spread as underdogs. Over is 3-1-1 in last five, after under was 10-2 in their first 12. Underdogs are 13-3-1 vs spread in Panthers’ home openers.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)— Buffalo won four of last five series games, crushing Chiefs 41-7 in Arrowhead LY; KC is making first visit here since ’05- they lost last five trips to Orchard Park by average of 19 points (last win here, ’86). Kansas City lost five of last six road openers, losing 48-3 (+7.5) in Detroit LY; only last 15 years, they’re 4-7 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Buffalo is 4-7 in last 11 season openers, but covered six of last seven; since ’92, they’re 10-5 as favorite in home openers. Both teams gave up 40+ points in losses last week; Chiefs turned ball over three times on 11 plays after missing game-tying FG in 3rd quarter of 40-24 home loss. Bills gave up a TD on offense, one on special teams; none of Jets’ four TD drives was longer than 61 yards. Four of their last six home openers went over the total; five of Chiefs’ last seven road openers stayed under.

Ravens (1-0) @ Eagles (1-0)-- Short week for Raven squad that sported a wide open passing game in win over division rivals Monday; they've lost eight of last 11 road openers, including 26-12 debacle at Tennessee LY, after they crushed Steelers 35-7 in opener. Vick threw four picks in dreadful performance Sunday at Cleveland, but drove team 91 yards for win when it mattered most. Eagles won despite losing field position by 14 yards; that doesn't happen whole lot. Baltimore has covered six of last eight as underdog in road opener, which they are here. Average total in last three series games is 29.3. Four of Ravens' last five road openers went over. Philly lost five of its last six home openers, with four of last five staying under total; since ’88, Eagles are 7-10 against spread as favorite in home opener, 2-4-1 as dog.

Raiders (0-1) @ Dolphins (0-1)-- Very short week and cross country trip for Raiders, who trailed 10-6 Monday night before injury to long snapper pointed game in San Diego's favor. Miami won three in row and nine of last 11 series games, with Raiders losing six of last seven visits here, with four of six losses by 6 or less points. Over last 16 years, Oakland is 5-11 vs spread in Week 1, but they’ve won three of last four road openers, covering four of last five; over is 9-3-1 in its last 13 road openers. Dolphins are 8-30 vs spread in last 38 games as a home favorite; they've lost six in row and eight of last nine home openers, losing last six by average score of 28-18 (0-6 vs spread), with four of last five home openers going over total. Since ’93, Miami is 1-7 vs spread in home openers that were not in Week 1.

Browns (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)— Cincinnati won last three series games, by 2-10-3 points; four of last six series games were decided by three or less points. Browns lost seven of last eight visits here, losing last two trips here by total of 5 points. Cleveland is 1-5 in last six road openers, after winning four of first seven; favorites are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine road openers, with eight of last 11 going over total. Browns had Eagles down 16-10 after picking Vick off four times in opener last week, but they let him drive 91 yards for winning TD in last 2:00. Short week for Bengals after Monday night’s beating in Baltimore. Cincy lost three of its last four home openers, scoring a dismal 9.3 ppg; they covered just three of last 12 as a favorite in home openers, which they are here. Seven of Cincy’s last nine home openers stayed under total. Cleveland is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as road dog in divisional games.

Texans (1-0) @ Jaguars (0-1)-- Home teams won eight of last ten series games, with Texans losing five of last seven visits here; Houston is 12-6-1 vs spread as a favorite last 2+ years, 5-2 on road. Jaguars won 17 of 27 (63%) plays on 3rd down at Minnesota last week, but couldn't stop Vikings at end of game and lost in OT. Since '07, Jax is 6-10 vs spread as a home dog, 3-6 in divisional games. Houston won last three road openers (scored 34-30-23 points) after losing five of first seven; they won 30-27 (-3)/23-13 (-3) as favorites in last two road openers, first two times they’ve been favored in one. Seven of their last nine road openers went over the total. Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven home openers, winning last two 24-17/16-14; they actually won six of their first seven home openers, are 4-2 as underdogs in a home opener. Under is 11-5-1 in all 17 of their home openers.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Seahawks (0-1)— Seattle won/covered eight of its last nine home openers, winning last three by combined score of 72-16, but they've lost last three games with Cowboys, all by 10+ points, but all three of those were in Texas. Pokes lost three of last four visits here, with last win 43-39 back in '84. Dallas had four extra days to rest/prepare after winning its opener in Swamp; How many times will ESPN show Romo botching snap on kick in '06 playoff game played here? Home side won last five series games; Dallas is 3-3 here, 1-3 in last four visits, with last win 43-39 in ’04.Since ’88, 2-4 vs spread as dog in Seattle's home openers. Under is 19-5 in their last 24 home openers, 2-3 in last five. Seattle had only one TD on four red zone drives last week, lost 20-16 in Arizona despite 10-yard edge in field position. Under is 9-1-1 in Seahawks’ last 11 home openers.

Redskins (1-0) @ Rams (0-1)—RGIII bandwagon has gotten very crowded very quickly; Rams are team that traded its pick to Washington so they could draft him. Skins averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt last week in Superdome, #1 figure in NFL, but don't forget, Saints are learning new defense and without a head coach. St Louis is 3-2 vs Skins last six years; Rams haven’t held edge over many teams during that span. Redskins won five of last seven visits here. Rams lost last five home openers (0-5 vs spread) by average score of 34-14; they’re 0-4-1 vs spread last five times their home opener wasn’t in Week 1. St Louis played better defense in Detroit last week but couldn't finish job. Washington DC Haslett was interim coach of Rams after Scott Linehan was fired in ‘08. Under is 8-3-1 in Skins’ last dozen road openers; over is 9-5-1 in Rams’ last 15 home openers.

Jets (1-0) @ Steelers (0-1)— Last two seasons, Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 vs spread in game following a loss; they allowed 8.6 yds/pass attempt last week-- Sanchez is no Manning. Remember Tebow beat Steelers with Mile High TD in OT in LY’s playoffs; that said, Jets are 4-17 vs Steelers, with last four meetings all decided by 5 or less points, and last two Pitt wins coming in playoff games. Jets’ win here in ’10 was their only one in nine visits. Gang Green is 8-4 in last 12 road openers, 5-1 vs spread in last six, covering last four games as an underdog in road openers.. Pitt won last nine home openers (8-1 vs spread, covering last seven), allowing 10-9-0 points in last three; they upset Falcons in '10 home opener, even with Big Ben suspended. Steelers are 6-3 vs spread in home openers that aren’t in Week 1. Under is 8-5 in Jets’ last 13 road openers, 3-0 in Steelers’ last three home openers.

Titans (0-1) @ Chargers (1-0)—Short week for San Diego after win in Monday night opener in Oakland, when they benefitted from Oakland losing its snapper on punts/kicks; Chargers won eight in row over old AFL rivals, with last loss in Astrodome 20 years ago. Titans lost last five visits here by average score of 29-14; their last win here was in ’90. Tennessee won three of last five road openers (4-1 vs spread), with only non-cover 16-14 loss (-1) at Jax LY; dogs covered all five of those games. San Diego is 4-5 in last nine home openers (3-6 vs spread), despite being favored in seven of those nine games. Bolts are 4-10 vs spread last 14 times their home opener wasn’t in Week 1. 13 of Titans’ last 15 road openers stayed under total, including last five in row; seven of Bolts’ last nine home openers went over. Since '04, Chargers are 32-22-2 as home favorites. since '06, Tennessee is 18-10-1 vs spread as a road underdog.

Lions (1-0) @ 49ers (1-0)—Head coaches almost had post-game skirmish after 49ers’ 25-19 win at Ford Field LY, Niners’ 8th series win in row, and 13th in last 14 meetings. 49ers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine home openers, 3-0-1 in last four as favorite-- they’re 5-2 in last seven SU. 49ers outrushed Green Bay 186-45 in impressive win at Lambeau last week; they're +29 in turnovers in 17 regular season games under Harbaugh. This year is only second time in last 8 years Niners' home opener is non-divisional game. Detroit won last week, even though they had -3 turnover ratio, first time they did that since 1972. Lions are 3-8 in last 11 road openers; since ’88, they’re 4-2 vs spread in as an underdog in road openers. Since '08, 49ers are 16-6-1 vs spread as favorites at The Stick. Six of Detroit’s last seven road openers went over total. Detroit is 11-6-2 as a non-divisional underdog under Schwartz.

Broncos (1-0) @ Falcons (1-0)—Manning looked lot like old self last week, as Denver averaged 8.6 yards/pass attempt and had three TD drives of 80+ yards. Since 2007, Falcons are 19-7-1 vs spread as a home favorite; since '05, they've covered 19 of 28 games vs AFC opponents. Since '06, Manning is 7-2 as road underdog. Denver won seven of last eight series meetings, with average total in last nine 63.6- they’ve won last four visits here, but Fox lost last three visits here with Carolina, by 17-8-21 points-- he also lost five of last seven road openers. Denver is 3-5 in its last eight road openers, with under 7-2-1 in its last ten. Manning won nine of his last 11 road openers, with LY obviously not counting, since he didn’t play. Atlanta won/covered eight of last nine home openers, winning last three by combined score of 72-16. Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons’ last 11 home openers.

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

The NFL Week 2 lines have had a chance to sizzle in the football frying pan since their release Monday. While plenty are hovering around the original number, some have moved drastically with one-sided action and sharp bets pushing the odds.

We talk to John Avello, sportsbook director at the Wynn Las Vegas, about this week’s biggest moves and where he expects them to go before kickoff:

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers – Open: Carolina +4, Currently: Carolina +1

Early bettors are fading the Saints after they fell on their face versus Washington in Week 1. Some online markets opened New Orleans as high as -4 but money on the home side has caused a severe line move.

“The Saints should scare some people after last week’s game,” Avello told Covers. “Their offense was OK, but that defense has always given up big points. They’re playing Carolina, who isn’t a Top 7 team but is a quality team – middle of the road. They always seem to hang around and are a scary team to give the points to.”

“I really don’t know what (bettors) are going to do with it,” laughs Avello, who currently has Saints -2.5 posted. “I don’t know how you can like New Orleans after last week.”

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts – Open: Indianapolis +3, Currently: Indianapolis +1

This spread has come off the key number at most books – online and Nevada – and has the Colts as slight home underdogs. Indianapolis wasn’t terrible versus Chicago in Week 1 and now gets a much weaker opponent in Minnesota. The Vikings welcomed back star RB Adrian Peterson against Jacksonville but still needed overtime to top the lowly Jaguars.

“The Colts will be better, they showed that last week,” says Avello. “This could be one of those chances that they have to win one.”

“It’ll be our least-bet game of the day, that’s for sure,” he added.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Philadelphia -2.5, Currently: Philadelphia -1

While most of the online and Nevada books have moved this spread down, the Wynn is currently dealing the Eagles -3 with sharp action on the opening line. Avello stands by the move and wasn’t overly impressed with the Ravens’ Week 1 win over Cincinnati.

“Joe Flacco had one of his best games ever, but his receivers were wide open the entire game,” says Avello. “I don’t know if Cincinnati wasn’t prepared or if they looked at Ray Rice to do more and keyed on him, leaving guys open. I don’t expect to see that kind of a game from (Flacco) again this week.”

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons - Open: Total 49, Currently: Total 51

Money on the over is no surprise for Monday night games. Early action has driven this total to the key number of 51 points. Avello says the only way this total is dropping is if sharp money comes in strong on the under before game time.

“The public isn’t going to move this down, only the sharps are going to do that,” says Avello. “I think it deserves to have a total this high. Both of these teams will have no trouble scoring this season and Peyton Manning looked damned good in his first game.”

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NFL

Week 2

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Ravens at Eagles: What bettors need to know
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Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 46.5)

With a road game looming against Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles, it was hardly a surprise to hear Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh use the term "scary good" in describing the quarterback play. The fact that Harbaugh was speaking of his own signal caller, Joe Flacco, instead of the multi-talented Vick spoke volumes of the season-opening performances of each team. Baltimore will try to make it two straight wins against the Eagles, who narrowly escaped a stunning upset at Cleveland in Week 1.

Baltimore looked like an offensive juggernaut Monday night in dismantling the Cincinnati Bengals 44-13 behind a superb effort from the oft-maligned Flacco, while Vick had to overcome one of the worst games of his career to lift Philadelphia to a 17-16 victory over the Browns. Although both teams have been touted as Super Bowl contenders, the Eagles wilted under similar great expectations a year ago and their turnover-filled opener conjured up memories of last season's 1-4 start.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Eagles -2.5, O/U 46.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s and sunny skies at Lincoln Financial Field. Winds will be light out of the north.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (1-0): Baltimore has been waiting seemingly forever for the offense to catch up with the fierce Ray Lewis-led defense. That time may have arrived. The Ravens unveiled a no-huddle attack and Flacco thrived in it, carving up one of last season's best defenses for 299 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 21-of-29 passing. Running back Ray Rice had to settle for a supporting role - albeit a stellar one - with 10 carries for 68 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Despite the absence of reigning Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs, the Ravens had four sacks and forced two turnovers.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-0): Injuries limited Vick to a handful of plays in the preseason, and his lack of game action showed as he tied a career high with four interceptions before leading a 91-yard TD drive with 78 seconds to play. Vick heaved up a career-high 56 pass attempts despite the Eagles not trailing until the fourth quarter, reviving the second-guessing of coach Andy Reid's play-calling. Wideout Jeremy Maclin had a solid game with seven catches for 96 yards and a TD, as did running back LeSean McCoy with 110 yards on 20 carries. Philadelphia's defense limited the Brown to only 210 yards.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in Ravens’ last five games in September.
* Over is 4-0 in Eagles’ last four Week 2 games.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 2 games.
* Ravens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in September.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Ravens S Ed Reed, who returned an interception 34 yards for a TD last week to become the league's career leader for most interception return yards (1,497), is questionable with a hamstring injury.

2. Philadelphia starting WRs DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and Maclin (hip) each sat out practice Thursday.

3. Harbaugh, who was an assistant coach for 10 seasons with the Eagles before being named Ravens coach in 2008, is 11-5 against the NFC.

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NFL

Week 2

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Jets at Steelers: What bettors need to know
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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 41.5)

Now comes the hard part for the New York Jets. It's one thing to put up 48 points – a franchise record for a season opener - against the Buffalo Bills’ defense. It’s quite another to have success against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road – something that had eluded them up until two seasons ago. After silencing their critics - for now - with an unexpected offensive outburst, the Jets will try to validate that effort with a second straight win over the Steelers at Heinz Field on Sunday.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are seeking to bounce back from a season-opening loss to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos and will have safety Ryan Clark and possibly linebacker James Harrison back to help. The Jets, who hope to have former University of Pittsburgh star Darrelle Revis (mild concussion) in the lineup, earned their first-ever win in the Steel City 22-17 in 2010. The Steelers had won all seven previous home matchups and have won 17 of the 21 meetings, including a 24-19 victory in the 2010 AFC Championship game. Pittsburgh hasn't started 0-2 since 2002.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Steelers -5, O/U 41.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-60s and sunny skies at Heinz Field. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-0): The Jets’ dominating 48-28 win over the Bills was perhaps the biggest surprise of the first week, mainly because New York infamously failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three preseason games. Much-maligned QB Mark Sanchez threw for 266 yards and three scores – two to rookie Stephen Hill – and Antonio Cromartie returned one of three interceptions for a touchdown. There were two other surprising developments from the opener: The Jets’ suspect offensive line didn’t allow a sack and Tim Tebow (five carries, 11 yards, zero pass attempts) was a non-factor. The only negative from Sunday’s win was that Revis, who’s from nearby Aliquippa, suffered a concussion after being kicked in the head by a teammate. Revis was unable to practice again Thursday and the team will make a decision about his status Saturday.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (0-1): Pittsburgh struggled against the Broncos’ no-huddle offense without Clark (sickle cell anemia) and Harrison (knee). The top-ranked defense from a season ago allowed 334 yards and the Broncos converted 5 of 9 third downs. Clark should return this week, while Harrison is questionable. The 2008 Defensive Player of the Year is still making his way back from minor knee surgery. Ben Roethlisberger (22 of 40, 245 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), operating in Todd Haley’s new offense, was efficient at times but also threw a game-clinching pick six. As expected, the Steelers’ offensive line failed to keep Roethlisberger clean (five sacks). The running game, meanwhile, averaged just 2.9 yards per carry. Second-year back Jonathan Dwyer (nine carries, 43 yards) outplayed Isaac Redman (11 carries, 20 yards) and should get more playing time with Rashard Mendenhall still recovering from a torn ACL.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Steelers last seven Week 2 games.
* Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 2 games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Hill, a second-round pick, is the first Jets receiver to catch two touchdowns in his debut and the first receiver to do so since former Tampa Bay tight end Alex Smith in 2005.

2. Sanchez is 39 of 62 for 403 yards and two touchdowns in two career games against Pittsburgh.

3. This will be the second trip to Pittsburgh for former Steelers wide receiver Santonio Holmes – the Super Bowl XLIII MVP. He has eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown against his former team.

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Sunday, September 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -7 500
N.Y. Giants - Under 43.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +2.5 500
Carolina - Over 52.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Arizona +13.5 500
New England - Under 47.5 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota -3 500
Indianapolis - Under 45.5 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -1 500
Philadelphia - Over 46.5 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +3 500
Buffalo - Under 45 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +7 500
Cincinnati - Under 39 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +7 500
Jacksonville - Under 41 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Miami +1 500
Miami - Under 39.5 500

Dallas - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +3 500
Seattle - Under 42.5 500

Washington - 4:05 PM ET Washington -3.5 500
St. Louis - Under 43 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:25 PM ET Pittsburgh -5 500
Pittsburgh - Under 43 500

Tennessee - 4:25 PM ET Tennessee +6.5 500
San Diego - Over 43.5 500


Back later before i head for the 9er game......

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Sunday Night:

Detroit - 8:20 PM ET San Francisco -7 500

San Francisco - Under 46 500

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Books loving the Cards

September 17, 2012

The Las Vegas sports books had a winning weekend that was spurred on by a couple of big upsets, one from the college game and one from the NFL. In each case, the upset knocked down the most popular betting choices of the day, which was the root of the most popular parlays on the day.
Stanford's 21-14 victory over Southern California as a nine-point home underdog was the key to a small Saturday win. Without it, things could have been disastrous because almost everyone had USC played as the last or second-to-last leg of their parlay. With highly-ranked public favorites like Alabama, LSU, Florida State and South Carolina all covering, USC was going to be a sweet 5-teamer for a lot of bettors.

For the small few that played Stanford on the money-line, they were rewarded with a +320 payout (Bet $100 to win $320). The only other big game of the day the sports books won on was Pittsburgh beating Virginia Tech as a 10 ½-point home 'dog which paid +350 (Bet $100 to win $350) on the money-line.

Overall in college, the favorites went 22-20-3 against the spread on the regular and added board with eight of the underdogs winning outright.

Sunday turned out a little better thanks to the Arizona Cardinals beating the New England Patriots 20-18 as 13 ½-point underdogs at Foxboro. Not only were the Patriots the center-piece of the most popular parlays wagered, but they also were the most bet teaser team and some gamblers threw them in money-line parlays, which some people like to bet.

When the New Orleans Saints lost as three-point road favorites at Carolina, the second most wagered upon parlay team, the sports books immediately knew the day should turn out to be a winner, even if the Chargers, Steelers and 49ers covered later in the day, which they all did.

The biggest losses in the morning games came from the Ravens covering in a 24-23 loss at Philadelphia and the Texans easily winning 27-7 as seven-point road favorites at Jacksonville.

The books went 2-2 against the public in the afternoon games, the biggest win coming from the Rams beating the Redskins 31-28 as 3 ½-point home underdogs. The Redskins were a popular choice by both sharp and small money. While we marvel at rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III, there are plenty of bettors that are sick of him already because they've lost two straight weeks with him. Last week, the big public team was the Saints and Griffin made their bets losers. This week they jumped on the Griffin wagon and once again, they were losers.

There weren't many takers with the Titans at San Diego, and they were wise to stay away as the Chargers rolled 38-10 in perhaps the easiest win of the day, next to Buffalo's 35-17 blowout over Kansas City.

The sports books need NFL teams to be competitive on a regular basis and right now they are worrying a bit about the Titans and Jaguars after watching them for two weeks, especially the Titans. The Raiders don't look to be in that category yet and the Browns showed some life that may have bettors taking a shot with them, but how do you sell the Titans to anyone?

The day would have been outstanding had the Lions covered as seven-point underdogs at San Francisco. They came close, but fell short in a 27-19 loss. Because of it being the last game of the day that always attracts action from those that either won and are trying to press their profits, or lost and are trying to get it back, Sunday night is always a huge game that can sometimes wipe out a book's entire win from the early games. Most reports had the 49ers win taking away about 25% of what they had won from the first 13 games.

Favorites ended up going 5-7-2 ATS on the day with the OVER going 8-6. Six of the seven underdogs the covered also won outright, including five home 'dogs. The lone home underdog that didn't win was Jacksonville.

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday..........

13) WE NEED THE REGULAR REFEREES BACK!!!!!!

Was that clear enough?
12) First half of the Ram-Redskin game was a debacle; incompetent refs screwing up a game. Apparently the best refs do the primetime games, the Dallas game, and the Jet/Giant games, because they get the most media coverage. The rest of the teams? Moe, Larry and Curly are reffing.

When the network announcers bitch about the refs, you know they're bad. Those guys are usually very slow to criticize.

11) I would compare the replacement refs to when we were in high school and there was a substitute teacher; kids ran amok, doing what they want, showing little respect for the sub. A certain lawlessness is emerging on the field, a lot more chippy play in almost every game. Its not good.

Anyway, on to the action from Sunday.......
10) New Orleans is 0-2, allowing 11.5/11.6 yards/pass attempt in those two games. There have been 31 games this season; of those 62 teams, those are the two best passing games in the NFL so far this season.

NFL screwed the Saints bigtime by suspending Sean Payton for the season.

Roger Goodell is going to need a solid security detail at the Super Bowl in February. Did I mention its in New Orleans?

9) Justin Tucker is a tremendous kicker for the Ravens; he made kicks of 56-51-48 yards at Philly Sunday. Very powerful leg.

8) Five teams who started rookie QBs turned ball over 15 times last week, only twice this week. After two weeks, they're 5-5 against spread.

7) I'm guessing lot of knockout pools took a serious hit when Patriots got knocked off by Arizona. Not often a 13-point underdog wins in the NFL.

6) In case you keep track of stuff like this, NFC West teams are 6-0 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East/North teams are combined 2-10.

5) Last week, there were 140 plays from scrimmage of 20+ yards, an average of 4.38 per team; this week so far, there have been 138, an average of 4.6 per team. Teams don't do as much during exhibition games anymore, so they're getting their offenses into gear during the actual games.

4) Last week, Giants had three explosive plays, all on 3rd down plays; against Tampa Bay Sunday, they had nine, with six of the nine coming on first down. If they let Eli Manning be more aggressive, they'd score a lot more points. Imagine that.......what a concept!!! Trying to score!!!

3) Redskins had a punt blocked for second week in row; this almost never happens in the NFL, unless there's an injury to the long snapper. Wouldn't be surprised if Washington changed punters this week.

2) Ugly start to the game on special teams for Dallas; they fumble the opening kickoff, Seattle kicks a FG. Dallas goes 3-and-out, Seahawks block the punt and go ahead 10-0, without having done a damn thing on offense.

1) If you were picking a Super Bowl matchup right this second, Houston-San Francisco would make a lot of sense. Thats not how it works, though.

Did I mention we need the regular refs back. Please?!?!?!

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NFL

Week 2

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Tale of the tape: Broncos at Falcons
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons:

Offense

Broncos QB Peyton Manning was dominant in a 31-19 win over Pittsburgh last Sunday night, completing 19 of 26 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns. Manning connected with Demaryius Thomas, who is probable against the Falcons after sustaining a shoulder injury against the Steelers, five times for 110 yards in the victory.

The Falcons averaged 6.8 yards per play and finished with 376 total yards in their 40-24 victory over the Chiefs last Sunday. Quarterback Matt Ryan completed 23 of 31 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Second-year wideout Julio Jones was his favorite target, hauling in six passes for 108 yards and two scores. Veteran wide receiver Roddy White (groin) was downgraded from probable Friday to questionable Saturday on the team’s injury report.

Edge: Falcons


Defense

The Denver defense threw all kinds of different looks at Ben Roethlisberger and held him to just 209 yards passing last week. The Broncos have a stout stop unit that boasts playmakers like Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller and Tracy Porter.

The Falcons’ defense struggled in the first half against Kansas City, but forced three turnovers and held the Chiefs scoreless in the second half until the game’s last possession. More troubling was the season-ending Achilles injury sustained by star cornerback Brent Grimes.

Edge: Broncos


Special teams

Special teams was key for the Falcons last Sunday, with Matt Bryant converting all four of his field goal attempts and Jacquizz Rodgers racking up 104 yards on two kick returns.

Matt Prater converted both of his field goal attempts against the Steelers in a relatively uneventful game on special teams for the Broncos. The cover team did a great job containing Pittsburgh returners Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders.

Edge: Falcons


Word on the street

"The most important thing is we have to play sound technique and make sure we're in the right place…If you're in the wrong place by a half-yard, you're going to pay for it. (Manning) has a good understanding of how you're trying to defend him. If you give him pre- snap reads, he's going to know where to go with the football." -- Falcons head coach Mike Smith on his plan to contain Peyton Manning.

"He's made me a smarter receiver and taught me how to run routes the way he wanted them, the way to get open…Basically, I had to change up some things that I wasn't doing before. Working with Peyton helped me." -- Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas on how Peyton Manning has improved his game.

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MNF - Broncos at Falcons

September 16, 2012

The Broncos and Falcons each picked up victories in Week 1, as the two interconference foes hook at the Georgia Dome on Monday night. One of the biggest stories from opening week was the return of Peyton Manning to the field after missing last season due to neck surgery, as the former MVP sliced up the Steelers in a 31-19 triumph as short home favorites. Now, Denver makes the trip to Atlanta looking for the franchise's first 2-0 start since 2009, when the Broncos began 6-0.

Manning rallied the Broncos from a 19-14 fourth quarter deficit to grab the 12-point victory in his Denver debut last Sunday, while picking up his first opening week cover since 2007. The Broncos didn't have the ball for long against the Steelers (24:55 time of possession), but Manning made it count with a 71-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas to give Denver a one-point halftime edge. Following a one-yard touchdown dart to old teammate Jacob Tamme, Manning watched new Bronco Tracy Porter intercept Ben Roethlisberger and take it back for a touchdown to give Denver a win in its home opener for the 10th time in 11 seasons.

The Falcons struggled to shrug off a feisty Chiefs' squad at Arrowhead Stadium, as Atlanta led Kansas City, 20-17 at the half. However, Matt Ryan orchestrated a brilliant game for the Falcons, passing for 299 yards and three touchdowns, including one to former Chiefs' standout Tony Gonzalez that gave Atlanta a 34-17 advantage after three quarters. Matt Bryant kicked four field goals, as the Falcons managed eight scores in the game to cash as 2 ½-point favorites, while finally winning a road opener after falling at Pittsburgh and Chicago the previous two seasons.

Under Mike Smith, the Falcons have been a productive team at the Georgia Dome for bettors, putting up a 21-11-1 ATS record since 2008. In the role of a favorite, Atlanta improves to 14-6-1 ATS since 2009, while the Falcons have won each of their four home openers in his tenure. The Falcons have performed well at home following a road victory by winning eight of the last 11 in situation, but two of the losses came last season against Green Bay and New Orleans.

John Fox has been regarded as a solid road underdog dating back to his days in Carolina, as the Broncos cashed in six of eight games in this role last season. Of course, this was during the incredible Tim Tebow run of fourth quarter rallies, as the Broncos won outright in four consecutive road contests when receiving points. Tying this back to Manning, the Colts lost both games as an away 'dog in 2010 to the Eagles and Patriots, but Indianapolis managed to cover each time in defeats of less than three points.

This is only the fourth game that Manning is playing since 2002 as a road underdog on Monday night, as the Colts went 1-2 SU/ATS in this stretch. The lone victory felt like a defeat for 3 ½ quarters as Indianapolis rallied past Tampa Bay, 38-35 as 4 ½-point 'dogs back in 2003, coming back from a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

The Falcons are riding an 0-5 SU/ATS run in the last five games under the Monday night lights, which have all coincidentally come against the rival Saints. In the Smith/Ryan era, this is only the second Monday night contest at the Georgia Dome, with the first game coming in December 2010, a 17-14 setback to New Orleans as short favorites.

The Broncos have compiled a 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record the last seven away games against NFC opponents, but Denver did grab a victory at the Georgia Dome in 2006 in a 24-20 triumph as 6 ½-point underdogs. That loss by the Falcons was the only setback in Smith's tenure against AFC opponents at home, as Atlanta owns a 7-1 SU/ATS mark in interconference action at the Georgia Dome.

The Falcons opened up as four-point favorites, but Broncos' money has dropped this number down to three. The total is set at a hefty 52, with several 51 ½'s floating around heading into Monday. The game can be seen nationally on ESPN starting at 8:30 PM EST.

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NFL

Week 2

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Monday Night Football: Broncos at Falcons
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Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 51)

While Peyton Manning showed he still bears mention among the NFL's elite quarterbacks, Matt Ryan performed at quite the high level himself in last week's season opener. Ryan, who threw for three touchdowns and ran for another in Atlanta's 40-24 triumph over Kansas City, will look to keep the Falcons flying high in Monday's tilt versus Manning and the Denver Broncos. Ryan is blessed with plenty of weapons - including second-year stud wideout Julio Jones, who reeled in six catches for 108 yards and two scores.

Manning didn't look the worse for wear after his 20-month absence, tossing a pair of scores in Denver's 31-19 victory over Pittsburgh last week. The future Hall of Famer took the reins of the no-huddle offense and sliced the Steelers' defense - highlighted by a 71-yard scoring strike to Demaryius Thomas for his 400th career touchdown. Manning will face a Falcons defense that struggled versus Kansas City and lost top cover cornerback Brent Grimes to a season-ending Achilles tendon tear in the process.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Falcons -3, O/U 51.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (1-0): Veteran cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter will be put to the test as they shadow Jones and Roddy White all over the field on Monday. Porter showed he was up to the challenge in the season opener with eight tackles and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Linebacker Von Miller, the No. 2 overall pick in 2011, tied a career high with two sacks as Denver's defense limited Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh to just 284 total yards last week.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-0): While Atlanta's high-octane passing game drew headlines, running back Michael Turner had trouble getting untracked in the opener. Turner, who rushed for an NFC-best 1,340 yards last season, mustered just 32 on 11 carries versus the Chiefs. Veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez, who found the end zone against his former team, has scored in three straight games versus Denver. Ryan has dominated at home, winning 26 of 30 career regular-season games in the Peach State.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six Monday games.
* Over is 5-1 in Falcons’ last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Broncos last four games as an underdog.
* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Falcons have fared well at home during Mike Smith's tenure, posting a 26-6 mark since 2008.

2. Denver has won eight of the 12 regular-season meetings - including six of the last seven contests. The Broncos also defeated the Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII, marking Hall of Famer John Elway's final game.

3. Atlanta will shuffle Dunta Robinson back to right cornerback in place of Grimes. Reserve Christopher Owens, who returned from a hamstring injury, will see additional time at nickel back.