The bum's 2012 nfl sept. Best bets !

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/16/12 14-*10-*4 58.33% +*1500 Detail
09/13/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
09/10/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/09/12 11-*15-*0 42.31% -*2750 Detail
09/05/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 27-*31-*4 46.55% -*3550


Monday, September 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Denver - 8:30 PM ET Atlanta -3 500

Atlanta - Over 52 500

The totals were here is a reflection on monday of last week....the line has since dropped to 50-51 depending on where your placing your bets.....i still like the over at either numbers......

GOOD LUCK !

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NY Giants Hit The Road At Carolina Panthers

The New York Giants are breathing a sigh of relief, but know they must play a lot more consistent football when they travel to the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night.

Don Best has just released the Week 3 NFL odds and New York is anywhere between a pick’em and 1½-point road favorite. The total is much steadier at 52 across the board. The NFL Network has the 8:20 p.m. (ET) broadcast.

The Giants were shocked in their opener versus Dallas, 24-17 as 3½-point home favorites and were trailing Tampa at home last week, 27-13 deep into the third quarter. Another loss would have been disastrous as only three of 46 eventual Super Bowl winners started their season 0-2.

New York made a furious comeback against Tampa that included 22 points in the final 6:48. Quarterback Eli Manning again showed the flair for the dramatic after winning two Super Bowls in the last five years. He threw for 510 total yards to make up for a dreadful first half (three picks).

The 9-point spread against the Bucs did drop the Giants to 0-2 against the spread, although Tom Coughlin could care less about that right now. The coach needs to find a third receiver for Manning outside of the explosive Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Mario Manningham is playing for San Fran now and really missed in that regard.

The running game also has questions with Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) leaving the game last week and questionable Thursday. The seldom-used Andre Brown was given carries over first round rookie David Wilson, not a good sign for the latter.

The Giants will not be fazed playing in the hostile environment however, finishing 5-0 SU and ATS away from home last year (including the Super Bowl).

Carolina (1-1 straight up, 1-1 ATS) also had trouble with Tampa, losing 16-10 as 3-point road favorites opening week. They then rebounded last week with a 35-27 home win over a reeling New Orleans bunch playing without suspended coach Sean Payton.

It was a huge win for the Panthers who went just 3-5 SU (5-3 ATS) at home last year.

Quarterback Cam Newton is trying to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump after a fine rookie season. He only had 20 pass attempts last week, but still managed to throw for 253 yards. He also didn’t have an interception after two against Tampa.

Carolina is now 6-1 SU and ATS in Newton’s career when he throws less than 30 passes and 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS when over 30.

Coach Ron Rivera would love to keep Newton’s passes down against New York, but he needs the running game to be working effectively. Newton combined with backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams for 191 yards on 38 rushes (5.0 ypc) versus New Orleans. Stewart missed the opening week with an ankle injury and makes a big difference.

The Giants have one of the best pass rushes in football, but it’s not as effective against Newton who has the speed to break containment and then pass or run. That keeps guys like Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck more honest and not just rushing with abandon.

The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams, playing three straight years from 2008-2010, right before the Newton era began.

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Redskins, Griffin Play Home Opener Vs. Bengals

The Washington Redskins have experienced a range of emotions from euphoria to grief in this young NFL season. They hope to see more of the former in their home opener against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon.

The Don Best NFL odds screen has Washington as 3½-4 point favorites with a total of 48½-49. The total has jumped from the 46½ open with the ‘over’ 2-0 for both squads. CBS will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from FedEx Field in the home debut for rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III.

The euphoria came in Week 1 in New Orleans, a 40-32 win as 8-point ‘dogs. Griffin (320 passing yards, two TDs, 139.9 rating) looked worth every penny the team paid in trading up in the draft to get him.

Things weren’t so rosy last Sunday, a 31-28 loss at St. Louis as 3½-point favorites. Griffin saw his passing numbers cut to 206 yards and one TD, but he also rushed for 82 yards and two TDs. The defense allowed 452 total yards to a Rams offense considered one of the worst in the league.

The real grief came with the injury news. Pass rusher Brian Orakpo (pectoral) and defensive end Adam Carriker (knee) were both lost for the season. Orakpo led the team with nine sacks last year and can’t be replaced by the proposed duo of Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson. Jarvis Jenkins, a second round pick last year, has a much better chance of replacing Carriker’s production.

Coach Mike Shanahan also has some offensive injury concerns. Tight end Fred Davis (concussion) is doubtful, while leading receiver Pierre Garcon (foot) is questionable after missing last week. Washington doesn’t have a lot of weapons even when everyone is healthy, so keep checking the injury report for the latest.

This home opener is vital to the Redskins after losing their final six games there last year (2-4 ATS). The ‘over’ was 4-0 in the last four of those, and is 7-1-1 in their last nine games overall after the first two this year.

The Bengals are 1-1, just like Washington. A 44-13 whitewashing by Baltimore in their opener was followed by a much more productive 34-27 home win over Cleveland. The latter was as 7-point chalk, dropping them to 0-1-1 against the spread.

Quarterback Andy Dalton had a good performance against Cleveland (24-of-31, 318 yards, 3 TDs) after struggling against the tough Ravens. The pass offense is going to be responsible for most of Cincy’s points as the recently-signed BenJarvus Green Ellis is a solid back, but far from explosive.

Coach Marvin Lewis can’t be happy about his defense ranking 30th in the league (434.5 YPG) so far. Even Cleveland rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden threw for 322 yards against them, after not even looking like Pop Warner caliber in his first contest.

Getting defensive end Carlos Dunlap and cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick to suit up for the first time this year would really help. Both are questionable with knee injuries. Cincinnati really needs to make Griffin pay physically when he scrambles around in the pocket or runs down the field.

This is an interconference matchup with the teams last meeting in 2004 and 2008. Cincinnati won both outright as an underdog and will try to accomplish the feat again.

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Steelers In Oakland For Week 3 NFL Betting Battle

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Just ask Oakland Raiders fans who are seeing their team disappoint once again heading into a Sunday contest versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Raiders are between 4½-5 point home ‘dogs on the Don Best Pro Odds screen with a total of 44. CBS will be live from Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum for the 4:25 p.m. (ET) broadcast.

The Raiders had a fresh start this year without deceased owner Al Davis. New GM Reggie McKenzie brought in coach Dennis Allen, and while he was the third head man in as many years, there was some optimism after going 8-8 the last two seasons.

Now fast forward to today. Oakland has started 0-2 straight up and against the spread after losses versus San Diego (22-14) and at Miami (35-13). The San Diego game had some bad luck after Oakland’s long snapper got injured and the backup made three miscues. The Miami game fell apart quickly after Oakland led (10-7) at halftime.

Quarterback Carson Palmer is third in the league in passing yards (670), but just 22nd in yards per attempt. He’s been hurt by the fact that receiver Denarius Moore (hamstring) missed the first game and Jacoby Ford (foot) is out for the year. Starting right tackle Khalif Barnes (groin) was also just lost indefinitely.

The running game has also been horrible (34 YPG, ranked 31st) with Darren McFadden limited to 54 total yards on 26 carries. McFadden had a great chance to put up big rushing numbers with Michael Bush signing with Chicago, but doesn’t look comfortable in the new zone-blocking scheme.

Pittsburgh (1-1 SU and ATS) rebounded from a 31-19 loss at Denver with a 27-10 home win over the Jets. They were able to hold quarterback Mark Sanchez to just 139 passing yards last week (5.1 per attempt) despite playing without star linebacker James Harrison and safety Troy Polamalu.

Harrison (knee) is likely out until after the Week 4 bye, while Polamalu (calf) is listed as questionable. Pittsburgh should be able to shut down McFadden’s rushing and dial up the defensive pressure on Palmer, who is known to throw it up for grabs when under duress.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, on the other hand, is feeling a lot more comfortable heading in. He threw for 275 yards and two TDs last week, with receiver Mike Wallace (74 yards) looking more comfortable in the new Todd Haley offense after his preseason holdout.

Roethlisberger should be throwing early and often with the Raiders losing both starting cornerbacks in Shawntae Spencer (foot) and Ron Bartell (shoulder) the first two weeks. Pat Lee and Joselio Hanson are the presumed starters, and there’s very little depth behind them.

The Pitt running game does miss Rashard Mendenhall (knee) with the replacement combo of Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer a drop-off. However, they are at least running enough (tied-for-15th in attempts) to keep defenses honest, even if at only 2.6 yards per carry.

Some betting trends to consider Sunday: Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games (2-3 SU) and the Raiders are 1-4-1 ATS (1-5 SU) in their last six at home.

This is the first meeting between the teams in Oakland since 2006 (20-13 Raiders win). The underdog is 7-2 in the last nine matchups.

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Close Calls - Week 2

September 18, 2012

Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the 4th quarter last week of the Week 2 NFL games. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

New York Giants (-8) 41, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 (43½): Those on the underdog Buccaneers looked like clear winners most of the way as Tampa Bay led 27-13 late in the 3rd quarter. The Giants put together an incredible rally that resulted in over 500 yards passing for Eli Manning. New York went up by seven late in the 4th quarter but Tampa Bay would answer only to have the Giants deliver the game winning touchdown with about 30 seconds to go. New York won by seven which was short of the opening and closing numbers but the line was steady at seven for big chunks of the week leading to an improbable push for many on the game.

Indianapolis Colts (+3) 23, Minnesota Vikings 20 (45½): The Colts were in control most of the way despite failing to put up by yardage numbers, leading 20-6 heading in the 4th quarter. A week after an amazing late win for the Vikings, there was nearly some more late game magic as the Vikings tied the game with back-to-back scoring drives, getting the tying score with just over 30 seconds to go. Andrew Luck hit two big pass plays in the remaining time and it was enough to get Adam Vinatieri in position for the 53-yard game winner. Overtime would have given totals players a lot more to sweat out as the game just barely stayed 'under'.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) 24, Baltimore Ravens 23 (47): This was a tie game entering the 4th and the this line jumped around throughout the week from -1 up to -2½ and then back down to -1 Friday before jumping up to -3 on Sunday morning with a lot of sharp action on the Eagles. Not many games end in with a one-point margin but the Eagles won a second straight one-point game as they got into the end zone with less than two minutes to go after two Baltimore field goals. Baltimore got close to midfield on its final possession but could not get it done, leaving the Eagles with another narrow win and a push for many on the game. The total also closed right on the closing number but most likely got a win for the 'over'.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) 34, Cleveland Browns 27 (39½): The Bengals led by seven after the 2nd and 3rd quarters and that was the margin the final ended at, right on the spread. The 4th quarter was filled with drama however as the Bengals pushed the lead to 10-points with just over two minutes to go. The Browns moved quickly into Bengals territory but then on 4th and six from the Cincinnati seven-yard line Cleveland kicked a field goal and then went for the onside kick with just 20 seconds to go.

St. Louis Rams (+3½) 31, Washington Redskins 28 (42½): Washington built an early lead in this game, benefiting from a few questionable calls in a poorly officiated game. By halftime the Rams had cut the margin to five points and that was the margin entering the 4th quarter as well. Sam Bradford threw an interception in the end zone going for the go-ahead touchdown late in the 3rd quarter but his defense bailed him out, blocking the subsequent Washington punt and setting up a touchdown pass early in the 4th quarter. The Rams also got the two-point conversion on that score and then both offenses disappeared in a sloppy 4th quarter. The Rams got the ball back and drove into Washington territory with less than three minutes to go, simply trying to burn the clock but a huge fumble by rookie Darryl Richardson gave the Redskins another chance. Washington moved to the edge of field goal range and then got a to the St. Louis 29 to set-up a 4th down kick to tie the game, but an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on receiver Josh Morgan after throwing the ball at a Rams defender pushed the kick back 15-yards for a 62-yard attempt that missed.

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NFL Week 3 Preview: Giants at Panthers

NEW YORK GIANTS (1-1)

at CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-1)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -1, Total: 52

Two teams riding high after explosive wins meet in Charlotte on Thursday night when the Panthers host the Giants.

The Giants’ patchwork defense will have their hands full in this one. With their injury-plagued secondary still rounding into form, not to mention their banged-up linebackingcorps, Tampa’s underwhelming offense scored 27 points against them in New York. The Panthers got their offense back on track in a home win over New Orleans last week, rushing 41 times for 219 yards (5.3 YPC) as they steamrolled their way to a 35-27 victory. Eli Manning was strong in the Giants’ 41-34 comeback win against Tampa, finishing the victory with a career-high 510 passing yards, but also had three first-half interceptions to put them in a hole.

Which NFC team will improve to 2-1 on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning’s 510 passing yards were three shy of Phil Simms’ franchise record, but New York became the first team in NFL history to have two receivers catch at least 10 passes for 175 yards in the same game. Hakeem Nicks finished with 199 yards on 10 catches and Victor Cruz grabbed 11 passes for 179 yards. Both players also scored touchdowns. The Giants may need to air it out again on Thursday because top RB Ahmad Bradshaw is not likely to play in this game after leaving the Week 2 victory with a neck injury. However, Andre Brown filled in nicely for Bradshaw last week with 13 carries for 71 yards (5.5 YPC) and a touchdown. New York’s offense may also be without OT David Diehl, who injured his knee against Tampa Bay. On the defensive side of the ball, injuries abound, specifically CB Prince Amukamara (ankle), LB Keith Rivers (hamstring) and DE Adewale Ojomo (hamstring) who are all questionable to suit up on Thursday. When these teams last met in 2010, a 31-18 Giants win, New York’s defense forced five Carolina turnovers and held the Panthers to a mere 237 total yards of offense.

Panthers QB Cam Newton bounced back from a poor Week 1 showing (1 TD, 2 INT, four rushing yards) and exploded on the Saints for 253 passing yards (12.7 YPA), 71 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and two total touchdowns. His 14 completions went for an average of 18.1 yards per reception, led by Steve Smith’s 104 yards on just three catches. The three-headed RB monster of DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert rushed for a combined 123 yards (4.6 YPC) and two scores. Defensively, the Panthers allowed the high-powered Saints to roll up 486 total yards of offense, a huge jump from Week 1 when they limited the Bucs to just 258 total yards. Carolina enters this game relatively healthy, but G Mike Pollak will likely miss this game because of a shoulder injury.

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NFL Tech Trends - Week 3

September 19, 2012

Thursday, Sept. 20 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

G-Men ended 2012 by covering their last five away from home. Cam 4-1 as home dog since LY and Panthers "over" 11-6-1 since 2011. Slight to Giants, based on recent road mark.

Sunday, Sept. 23 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Note that Jay Cutler has covered his last five games when made a favorite (not counting late LY with Hanie at QB for Bears) and now 8-1 last nine as chalk since late 2010. Lovie also 11-3 "over" last 14 at Soldier Field. Rams already have as many road covers in 2012 (one) as they had away from home all of LY. "Over" and slight to Bears, based on "totals" and Cutler chalk trends.

Dallas 3-11-1 its last 15 as chalk since late 2010. Jerry Jones also "under" 13-6 last 19 since late 2010. Slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.

After Det. Sept. 16, Harbaugh 14-5-1 vs. line since LY; road cover at GB was first after dropping last four vs. spread away LY. Vikes no covers last five at Metrodome. 49ers, based on Harbaugh marks and Vike home woes.

Note that Munchak only 6-11-1 vs. line since taking over at Tennessee LY and has now dropped last six vs. spread since late 2011 as well. Lions now "over" 24-12-3 last 39 since late in 2009 season, and Jim Schwartz just 3-11 vs. spread last 14 on board since early 2011. "Over," based on extended Lions' "totals" trends.

Marvin Lewis fading vs. number since mid 2011, only 2-7-2 vs. spread last 11 on board. Bengals also "over" 12-6-1 since 2011. Shan "over" 7-2 last 9 since late 2011. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Miami has won and covered 4 of 6 vs. Rex Ryan since 2009 but that was with Rexy's new o.c. Sparano as the Dolphins' HC. Rexy also "over" 29-13 since late in 2009 campaign, though Miami "under" 13-5 since LY. Slight to Jets and "over," based on team and Jets' extended "over" trend.

Chiefs "over" first two but had been "under" 17-5 previous 22. Saints stubbed toe vs. Skins in opener but still 9-1 vs. line last 10 at Superdome since LY. Saints also "over" 14-7 last 21 overall. "Over" and Saints, based on "totals" and extended team trends.

Bills now "over" 13-6 last 19 overall. Buffalo has lost 10 of last 12 SU and is just 3-9 vs. line in those games since mid 2011. "Over" and slight to Browns, based on "totals" and Bills trends.

Colts 9-16 vs. spread since since mid 2010. Slight to Jags, based on team trends.

Sunday, Sept. 23 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Cards won in a mild upset at Linc LY. Andy Reid only 4-8 last 12 as chalk, Whisenhunt 9-3 vs. points last 11 on board, also 12-5 as home dog since 2007. Cards, based on team trends..

ATLANTA at SAN DIEGO...Norv 7-9-1 vs. line first 3 games of season since taking over Bolts in 2007. Norv "under" 9-3 last 12 at Qualcomm. Slight to "under" and Falcs, based on Norv trends.

HOUSTON at DENVER...Kubiak 15-5 vs. line since LY and 12-2 last 14 on board. Kubiak also covered last five as dog in 2011. Broncos "over" 28-12 since late 2009, though Kubiak "under" 13-7 since LY. Slight to Texans and "over," based on Texans team and extended Bronco "over" trends.

PITTSBURGH at OAKLAND...Raiders 3-5 vs. line last 8 at home, but Steelers only 2-5 last 7 on board since late LY. Tomlin has also dropped last five vs. line on road and 2-9 last 11 away. Slight to Raiders, based on recent Steel road woes.

Sunday, Sept. 23 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

AFC title rematch. Last four meetings between these two have been at Foxborough, Pats 3-1 SU and 2-2 vs. line. If getting points, Belichick has covered last 4 and 6 of last 7 chances as dog. Belichick also 10-4 vs. line last 14 on road. And Belichick also "over" 28-12 since late 2009. Slight to "over" and Belichick, if dog, based on Belichick trends.

Monday, Sept. 24 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll 13-5 vs. line at home since arriving at Seattle in 2010, also "over" 11-6 last 17 at Century Link Field. Pack on 18-8 spread run since late 2010. "Over" and slight to Seahawks, based on Pete Carroll trends..

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Turnover Tendencies

September 19, 2012

We're just two weeks into the NFL season but wanted to point out a significant statistic relevant to the point spread. It's an 'after the fact' stat but the results are truly remarkable. If you take the time to look you'll find that teams that win the turnover battle are a ridiculous 23-2 (92%) against the spread this season.

This is something we've followed for years and the point-spread numbers for teams that win the turnover battle are staggering. It goes to show the fine line between winning and losing in the NFL and because of that, how important it is to protect the football.

Through two full weeks of the season there are six teams in the NFL that are +1.5 or better in turnover margin per game.

Those teams are Atlanta, Washington, Houston, Baltimore, New England and Tampa Bay who have a combined spread record of 10-2 ATS.

Teams that have a negative or -1.5 average turnover margin per game this season are just 3-11 ATS which includes Kansas City, New Orleans, Denver, Miami, Indianapolis, Detroit and Philadelphia.

Teams to keep an eye on as potential 'play against' are the Eagles (0-2 ATS) and Saints (0-2 ATS) who were 31st (Eagles) and 24th (Saints) in turnover margin a season ago.

Conversely, teams such as Atlanta, Baltimore and Houston (all 2-0 ATS this year) were all top 8 in TO margin last year and currently trend as 'play on' teams.

Again, hindsight is 20-20 when it comes to analyzing turnovers and ATS records. It’s obviously very tough if not impossible to handicap turnovers. The best way we can try and forecast turnovers is by analyzing matchups and team’s tendencies when it comes to protecting the ball.

For example a few potential favorable matchups in regards to turnovers this week are…

Houston (-2) at Denver
Houston is +5 in TO margin so far in 2012 & it finished 7th in the NFL in 2011. Denver is -4 in TO margin so far this season and the Broncos finished 27th in TO margin last season.

San Francisco (-7.5) vs. Minnesota
San Fran is just +1 so far this season. But that could be attributed to the fact that they played two strong offenses in Green Bay and Detroit. The 49ers led the NFL in 2011 with a +28 margin. Minnesota is -16 the last three years combined (finished in the bottom half of the NFL in 2010 and 2011).

Tampa Bay (+7.5) vs. Dallas
The Buccaneers have been more aggressive on defense and smarter with the ball on offense this season and that’s led to a +3 turnover margin (finished dead last in the NFL last year with a -16 margin). The Cowboys are -2 so far this season after last week’s debacle at Seattle.

Washington (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati
The Redskins are +5 in TO margin this season as new QB RG3 is a huge upgrade over turnover machines Rex Grossman and John Beck from a year ago (Washington finished -14 in TO margin). Cincinnati finished even in TO margin in 2011 but is already -2. And the defense has looked shaky here in 2012.

Continue to keep an eye on TO margin and certain matchups in the upcoming weeks and you may be able to get an inside edge on ATS winners in the NFL.

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Week 3 Tips

September 20, 2012

Heading into Week 3 of the NFL, a handful of teams are listed as road favorites, even though these chalky squads haven't been successful this season. Through two weeks, teams laying points on the highway own a 3-7 ATS record, as the Texans were the lone team to win and cover last week at Jacksonville. In this week's early games, four clubs are laying the wood, even though only one of them is undefeated.

49ers (-7, 43 ½) at Vikings - 1:00 PM EST

San Francisco enters the Twin Cities at 2-0 for just the third time since 2000, as the 49ers look to keep backers happy with another win. Jim Harbaugh's club followed up an impressive road triumph at Green Bay in the season opener by slowing the Lions in a 27-19 victory as seven-point home favorites. This is the first of two games for San Francisco off the West Coast, as the Niners head to New Jersey to take on the Jets next week.

Since Harbaugh's arrival last season, San Francisco owns a 14-5-1 ATS record, but three of those losses have come in the role of a road favorite. The Vikings are listed as an underdog for the first time after failing to cover against the Jaguars and Colts as short 'chalk.' Minnesota's first two games have been decided by three points, including a 23-20 setback at Indianapolis, as the Vikings overcame a 20-6 deficit to tie the game before allowing a 53-yard field goal to Adam Vinatieri in the final seconds.

The Vikings have put together a solid 6-3-1 ATS record since 2011 as an underdog, but Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games at **** of America Field. The Niners have failed to cover in each of their last three away games off a home win, but all three ATS losses came to division opponents. Minnesota rallied past San Francisco the last time these met in 2009, but the Niners cashed as seven-point road 'dogs in a 27-24 defeat.

Lions (-3 ½, 47) at Titans - 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee has compiled a pair of mediocre efforts in its first two losses to New England and San Diego, as the Titans return home to battle the Lions. Three years removed from capturing the league's rushing title, Titans' running back Chris Johnson has stumbled out of the gate with 21 yards on 19 carries in two defeats. Now, Tennessee has to slow down Detroit's explosive offense, which was silenced at San Francisco.

The Lions kicked four field goals before a late touchdown pass by Matthew Stafford gave a Detroit a more respectable result in an eight-point defeat. Jim Schwartz's team has failed to cover in two games after needing a rally in the final seconds to stun the Rams in the season opener, 27-23 as nine-point favorites. Detroit is just 3-7 ATS the last 10 games away from Ford Field, including a 1-3 ATS mark last season as road 'chalk.'

Despite Kenny Britt's return to the lineup at San Diego, Tennessee mustered 212 yards of offense in a 38-10 loss as 6 ½-point 'dogs, while the defense allowed five offensive touchdowns to the Chargers. The Titans own a 3-6 ATS record at home under Mike Munchak, while splitting a pair of games as an underdog against the Saints and Ravens.

Jets (-2 ½, 40) at Dolphins - 1:00 PM EST

These two old AFC East rivals enter Sunday's contest with a 1-1 record, as both have won at home and lost on the road through two weeks. New York's offense couldn't put together an encore performance after a 48-point effort in a Week 1 blowout of Buffalo (granted the Jets scored two non-offensive touchdowns), as the Jets were held to 10 points in a Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh. The Dolphins put together probably the biggest offensive turnaround from Week 1 to Week 2 after an impressive showing against the Raiders.

Reggie Bush rushed for 172 yards and two touchdowns, erasing a small halftime deficit en route to a 35-13 victory for the Dolphins as one-point underdogs. Miami improved to 5-1 the last six games at Sun Life Stadium, which includes a 19-17 win over the Jets to conclude last season. The Dolphins have done well against the Jets under Rex Ryan, as Miami is 4-2 SU/ATS in the series since 2009. Also, Miami is a solid 10-2 ATS the previous 12 games overall since last October.

Mark Sanchez completed just 10 passes against the Steelers, one week after tossing three touchdown passes in the season opener against the Bills. The Jets have failed to cover seven of their last nine road games, but New York is a profitable 7-4 ATS in Ryan's tenure. Following a road loss hasn't been a good spot to back New York under Ryan, as the Jets are 3-7 ATS, including a 1-4 ATS mark last season.

Bills (-3, 44) at Browns - 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo rebounded nicely from an opening week whipping at the Jets by doling out a 35-17 beatdown of the Chiefs last Sunday in their home opener. The Bills are listed as road favorites for just the second time in Chan Gailey's tenure, as Buffalo lost in this role at Cincinnati, 23-20, as three-point 'chalk.' The next test for the Bills is a winless Browns' team that has actually been a tremendous pointspread play since last season.

Cleveland may not win many games, but Pat Shurmur is keeping his team motivated, as the Browns are 7-1-1 ATS the last nine contests dating back to last November. The Browns cashed in the one-point opening week loss to the Eagles as nine-point home 'dogs, while pushing in last week's 27-20 setback at Cincinnati as seven-point underdogs. However, the Browns have had problems scoring at home since Shurmur took over as head coach last season by scoring 17 points or less in nine consecutive home contests ('under' is 6-3).

The Bills have cashed the 'over' in five straight regular season games since Week 15 of last season, but Buffalo is 0-8 SU the last eight road contests. This is a critical game for the Bills, who take on the Patriots at home next week, followed by a pair of trips to the West Coast to battle the 49ers and Cardinals.

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NFL Week 3 Preview: Giants at Panthers

NEW YORK GIANTS (1-1)

at CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-1)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -1, Total: 52

Two teams riding high after explosive wins meet in Charlotte on Thursday night when the Panthers host the Giants.

The Giants’ patchwork defense will have their hands full in this one. With their injury-plagued secondary still rounding into form, not to mention their banged-up linebackingcorps, Tampa’s underwhelming offense scored 27 points against them in New York. The Panthers got their offense back on track in a home win over New Orleans last week, rushing 41 times for 219 yards (5.3 YPC) as they steamrolled their way to a 35-27 victory. Eli Manning was strong in the Giants’ 41-34 comeback win against Tampa, finishing the victory with a career-high 510 passing yards, but also had three first-half interceptions to put them in a hole.

Which NFC team will improve to 2-1 on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning’s 510 passing yards were three shy of Phil Simms’ franchise record, but New York became the first team in NFL history to have two receivers catch at least 10 passes for 175 yards in the same game. Hakeem Nicks finished with 199 yards on 10 catches and Victor Cruz grabbed 11 passes for 179 yards. Both players also scored touchdowns. The Giants may need to air it out again on Thursday because top RB Ahmad Bradshaw is not likely to play in this game after leaving the Week 2 victory with a neck injury. However, Andre Brown filled in nicely for Bradshaw last week with 13 carries for 71 yards (5.5 YPC) and a touchdown. New York’s offense may also be without OT David Diehl, who injured his knee against Tampa Bay. On the defensive side of the ball, injuries abound, specifically CB Prince Amukamara (ankle), LB Keith Rivers (hamstring) and DE Adewale Ojomo (hamstring) who are all questionable to suit up on Thursday. When these teams last met in 2010, a 31-18 Giants win, New York’s defense forced five Carolina turnovers and held the Panthers to a mere 237 total yards of offense.

Panthers QB Cam Newton bounced back from a poor Week 1 showing (1 TD, 2 INT, four rushing yards) and exploded on the Saints for 253 passing yards (12.7 YPA), 71 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and two total touchdowns. His 14 completions went for an average of 18.1 yards per reception, led by Steve Smith’s 104 yards on just three catches. The three-headed RB monster of DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert rushed for a combined 123 yards (4.6 YPC) and two scores. Defensively, the Panthers allowed the high-powered Saints to roll up 486 total yards of offense, a huge jump from Week 1 when they limited the Bucs to just 258 total yards. Carolina enters this game relatively healthy, but G Mike Pollak will likely miss this game because of a shoulder injury.

[StarDust Bum]

Giants at Panthers

September 19, 2012

The defending Super Bowl champions will hit the road for the first time this season when they travel to Charlotte on Thursday to face Carolina at 8:20 p.m. Eastern on the NFL Network.

From Sunday night to early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Giants installed as one or 1 ½-point favorites. However, as of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had adjusted the number and made the Panthers two-point favorites.

As of early this afternoon, most spots had Carolina as a 2 1/2-point 'chalk' with a total of 49 1/2. Gamblers can now take the G-Men on the money line for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).

New York (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) bounced back from a 24-17 season-opening loss to Dallas by rallying for a 41-34 win over Tampa Bay in Week 2. The Giants trailed the Bucaneers 24-13 at intermission and were still down 27-13 with one minute remaining in the third quarter.

Eli Manning shook off three interceptions, including a pick-six with only eight ticks left in the first half, to throw for a pair of touchdowns in the final stanza. Manning finished with a career-high 510 passing yards, but the G-Men failed to cover the spread as 8 ½-point ‘chalk.’

Subbing for running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who sustained a neck injury in the first half, Andre Brown rushed 13 times for 71 yards, including a two-yard TD plunge for the game-winning points with only 31 seconds remaining. Brown, a North Carolina St. product, had just two career carries going into the game.

He’ll get the first start of his career Thursday since Bradshaw has been ruled ‘out.’ Also, Tom Coughlin’s club will be without two other starters on offense, OT David Diehl and WR Hakeem Nicks.

The loss of Nicks, who didn’t make the trip due to a foot injury, is especially disconcerting. Nicks went wild against the Bucs, garnering NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after hauling in 10 receptions for 199 yards and one TD.

The Giants won’t have back-up WR Domenik Hixon, either, because of a concussion. But they will have Victor Cruz, who had 11 catches for 179 yards and one TD against Tampa Bay.

Carolina (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) lost a 16-10 decision at Tampa Bay in Week 1, but it responded nicely by knocking off New Orleans by a 35-27 count as a three-point home underdog. The 62 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 53 ½-point total. The Panthers hooked up money-line supporters with a plus-150 payout (paid $150 on $100 wagers).

Cam Newton was the catalyst against the Saints, connecting on 14-of-20 throws for 253 yards and one touchdown without an interception. Newton also rushed for 71 yards, including a five-yard TD scamper.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined to run for 120 yards on 25 carries, while Steve Smith had three receptions for 104 yards.

Carolina’s defense intercepted Drew Brees twice, but the unit is surrendering 146.5 yards rushing per game and it allowed the Saints 486 yards of total offense.

These NFC rivals last met two years ago in Week 2 with the Giants capturing a 31-18 win as 5 ½-point home favorites. They haven’t played in Charlotte since 2006 when New York won 27-13 as a three-point road ‘chalk’ behind three TD passes from Manning.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--In comeback mode most of the day, the Giants produced 604 yards of total offense compared to Tampa Bay’s 307 yards. New York had a 31-14 advantage in the first-downs department.

--The Falcons have gone west of the Rockies five times during Mike Smith’s tenure and they’ve returned home to Atlanta with a victory in each instance. They are three-point underdogs Sunday at San Diego on a short week after beating Denver on Monday Night Football.

--San Diego RB Ryan Mathews (clavicle) was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Wednesday and is expected to make his regular-season debut.

--Atlanta RB Michael Turner will not be suspended against the Bolts after getting a DUI following MNF earlier this week.

--Houston’s defense limited the Jags to merely 117 yards of total offense last week.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 3

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Thursday Night Football: Giants at Panthers
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New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (+1, 51)

THE STORY: The New York Giants have little time to get healthy as they take to the road Thursday to face the Carolina Panthers.

New York rallied from a 14-point deficit in the second half and pulled out a thrilling 41-34 home victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday as Eli Manning threw for a career-high 510 yards and three touchdowns, including two in the fourth quarter. But the win came at a price as running back Ahmad Bradshaw (neck), receiver Domenik Hixon (concussion) and tackle David Diehl (knee) suffered first-half injuries and did not return.

Carolina is coming off an exciting win of its own as it held off the New Orleans Saints for a 35-27 triumph, the Panthers' first victory over their NFC South rivals since 2009. Carolina carried a 15-point lead into the fourth quarter but needed an interception by Jon Beason with 31 seconds remaining to keep New Orleans winless after two weeks.

The Panthers and Giants last met in Week 1 of the 2010 season, when New York posted a 31-18 victory in its inaugural game at MetLife Stadium. Carolina does have the distinction of being the last team to play New York at Giants Stadium as it cruised to a 41-9 win in Week 16 of the 2009 campaign and eliminated the Giants from playoff contention.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the Giants as 1.5-point road favorites and it really depends on the book to see where the line has moved. Some have the Panthers favored by as much as 2.5 while others have the Panthers as low as -1. Either way, it's a big move for a Thursday night primetime NFL game. The total has fallen from 52 to 51 points.

WEATHER: The forecast for Bank of America Stadium is calling for clear skies, temperatures in the lows 60s and zero chance of rain. Winds will blow slightly South.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS): Manning erased his three-interception first half by throwing for 295 yards after halftime, three shy of Phil Simms' club record. He passed for 243 of those yards during a 25-point fourth quarter, the team's biggest since 2006. Manning shattered his previous career high of 420 passing yards set last season against Seattle. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz were Manning's favorite targets. Nicks had 10 receptions for 199 yards and a TD while Cruz hauled in 11 passes for 179 yards and a score.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS): Receiver Steve Smith, who battled a knee injury, caught three passes for 104 yards against the Saints. It was the 39th time in his career he has amassed at least 100 receiving yards. Being interception-free is key for Cam Newton as Carolina is 6-1 over the past two seasons in games in which he has not been picked off. Newton led the Panthers' rushing attack against New Orleans with 71 yards, two more than DeAngelo Williams on one less carry.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Giants are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New York's 604 total yards against the Buccaneers fell five shy of the franchise record set on Dec. 3, 1950, in a 51-7 triumph over the New York Yanks.

2. After rushing for a dubious franchise record-tying 10 yards against Tampa Bay in their season opener, the Panthers gained 219 yards on the ground versus New Orleans.

3. The Giants became the second team in NFL history to have a 500-yard passer and two 150-yard receivers in a game, joining the 1951 Los Angeles Rams.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, September 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Giants - 8:20 PM ET Carolina -2.5 500

Carolina - Under 49.5 500

[LeRoy]

GL tonite Bum

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks LeRoy....but the panthers sucked .....