The bum's 2012 nfl sept. Best bets !

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NFL Week 4 Preview: Saints at Packers

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (0-3)

at GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -7½, Total: 53

Two teams desperate for a win will meet on Sunday when the winless Saints visit the 1-2 Packers.

These teams played a classic in the 2011 opener, a 42-34 Packers win that came down to the last possession, but so far in 2012 the teams have combined for one win. New Orleans hasn’t missed Sean Payton on the offensive side of the ball, but they can’t tackle, allowing 200-plus rushing yards in each of the past two weeks (including 273 to the Chiefs last week). Green Bay had serious problems in pass protection in last week’s bizarre last-second loss in Seattle. The Packers have scored just 57 points on the season, but have faced three excellent defenses so far. The Saints might be the worst defensive team in the NFL.

Can the Saints finally win a football game, either SU or ATS? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Drew Brees has thoroughly enjoyed facing the Packers in his career, throwing for 1,458 yards (365 YPG), 11 TD and 2 INT in four meetings. In last year’s contest, he completed 32-of-49 passes for 419 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Six different players had at least four catches in that game led by WRs Devery Henderson (6 rec, 100 yds, 1 TD) and Marques Colston (6 rec, 81 yds), RB Darren Sproles (7 rec, 75 yds) and TE Jimmy Graham (4 rec, 56 yds, 1 TD). Brees (7 TD, 5 INT) has not been particularly sharp this season, with a 54.7% completion rate falling well below last year’s record-setting 71.2% rate. The ground game has averaged a healthy 5.0 yards per carry, but New Orleans has rushed the football just 56 times, the lowest total in the NFC. Pierre Thomas (7.3 YPC) and Sproles (8.9 YPC) have both been tough to bring down, but Mark Ingram has just 79 yards on a team-high 27 carries (2.9 YPC). On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints are allowing a league-worst 215 rushing YPG and their 262 passing YPG allowed ranks 25th in the NFL. The one positive is that they’ve forced four turnovers in the past two games.

Like Brees, Aaron Rodgers also had a huge performance in last year’s season opener, completing 27-of-35 throws for 312 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. The scoring passes, all in the first quarter, went to WRs Greg Jennings (7 rec, 89 yds, 1 TD), Jordy Nelson (6 rec, 77 yds, 1 TD) and Randall Cobb (2 rec, 35 yds, 1 TD). And also like Brees, Rodgers is off to a slow start with just 217 passing YPG, 3 TD, 2 INT and an 87.0 QB rating. These numbers represent a huge drop-off from last season when he finished with 310 passing YPG, 45 TD, 6 INT and an NFL-record-setting 122.5 QB rating. The Packers have the fourth-fewest rushing attempts in the league (63), which is why they have the fifth-fewest yards on the ground (78 YPG). The Green Bay defense has played pretty well, leading the league in passing defense (125 YPG). It has certainly helped that OLB Clay Matthews has six of his team’s 12 sacks (T-3rd in league). Green Bay’s run-stop unit has also improved greatly since allowing 186 rushing yards and 5.8 YPC in Week 1. In the past two games, the Packers are surrendering just 221 yards on 52 carries (4.3 YPC).

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NFL Week 4 Preview: Panthers at Falcons

CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-2)

at ATLANTA FALCONS (3-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -7, Total: 48½

The unbeaten Falcons (SU and ATS) look for a sixth straight home win when division rival Carolina flies south to Atlanta on Sunday.

The Panthers have some serious issues coming into this game. They were hammered at home by the Giants last Thursday night, failing to generate a pass rush, cover anyone in the secondary, or stop the run. And Cam Newton continues to look less decisive in his second season. The Falcons, meanwhile, continue to play great overall and especially at home, where they’ve won five in a row at the Georgia Dome SU (3-0-2 ATS). They’ve also handled the Panthers four straight times overall (SU and ATS), as well as four in a row at home (SU and ATS).

Will the Falcons roll to another victory to start the year? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Newton is off to a terrible start in his second season, throwing for just two touchdowns and five interceptions. Those are the exact same numbers he had in last year’s two meetings with Atlanta (2 TD, 5 INT) connecting on just 54% of his passes and posting a 56.9 QB rating. Newton has run for a mere 3.4 yards per carry this season and the Panthers ground game as a whole (96 rushing YPG, 19th in NFL) has also been much worse than last season (151 rushing YPG, 3rd in NFL). However, they should be able to chew up some yards versus a Falcons run defense allowing 129 rushing YPG (24th in league), especially with Jonathan Stewart’s ankle finally close to 100 percent healed. WR Steve Smith was critical of the way Newton carried himself on the sidelines of the 36-7 loss to New York, and Smith will look to set a good example by building on his 1,066 yards and five touchdowns in 17 career games against Atlanta. Last year, Smith caught 11 passes for 191 yards in the two meetings.

Ryan has enjoyed great success in this series over the years, beating Carolina in six of the eight meetings while throwing for 226 YPG, 12 TD and just four picks. His top three receivers each have 15+ catches this season, as WR Roddy White has a team-best 244 receiving yards, TE Tony Gonzalez leads the team with 21 catches and three scores, and WR Julio Jones also has three touchdowns. When the Falcons most recently faced Carolina last December, this trio combined for 17 catches, 270 yards and three touchdowns (two by Jones and one by White). The success of the passing game has not translated to the ground, as Atlanta has gained just 90 rushing YPG (25th in NFL). Top two rushers Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers have combined for a paltry 3.4 yards per carry. However, the last time Carolina visited Atlanta last October, Turner rushed for 139 yards (5.1 YPC) and 2 TD. The Falcons have struggled to limit opposing rushing attacks, surrendering 129 rushing YPG (24th in NFL), but they have done a great job against the pass despite facing two great quarterbacks in a row (Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning). Atlanta ranks seventh in the NFL with 208 passing YPG allowed.

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Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........(Thursday games were lightly played)

6) New Jersey Giants, 170
5) St Louis Rams, 171
4) Cincinnati Bengals, 209
3) Minnesota Vikings, 219
2) San Francisco 49ers, 262
1) New England Patriots, 278

25) Oakland Raiders, 77
26) Jacksonville Jaguars, 72
27) New Orleans Saints, 71
28) Atlanta Falcons, 65
29) Tennessee Titans, 57
30) Detroit Lions, 29

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Cleveland at Baltimore, 8:20 ET NFL
Cleveland: 13-5 Under in all games
Baltimore: 9-1 ATS in home games after a win by 3 or less


Sunday, September 30, 2012

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New England: 13-4 ATS in road games
Buffalo: 10-2 Over as an underdog

Minnesota at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 0-6 ATS off a home win
Detroit: 9-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 40-23 Under in the first month
Atlanta: 1-12 ATS at home after 3 wins ATS

San Francisco at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
NY Jets: 9-1 Over off a road win

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 0-7 ATS where the total is between 42.5 and 45
Kansas City: 13-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 11-2 Under in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Houston: 7-0 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 8-1 ATS after playing a game at home
St. Louis: 5-13 ATS in all lined games

Miami at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Miami: 13-4 Under in road lined games
Arizona: 5-15 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins

Oakland at Denver, 4:05 ET
Oakland: 6-0 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Denver: 51-29 Over as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Cincinnati at Jacksonville, 4:05 ET
Cincinnati: 4-17 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game
Jacksonville: 10-2 ATS after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half

New Orleans at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
New Orleans: 32-17 Over against NFC North division opponents
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Washington at Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET
Washington: 12-2 ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards
Tampa Bay: 50-28 Under in the first month of the season

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET NBC
NY Giants: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Philadelphia: 6-0 Under versus division opponents


Monday, October 1, 2012

Chicago at Dallas, 8:35 ET ESPN
Chicago: 6-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Dallas: 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins


** Week 4 Byes: Indianapolis, Pittsburgh **

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NFL

Week 4

Sunday, September 30

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49ers at Jets: What bettors need to know
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San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4, 40.5)

The New York Jets suffered a crushing blow when it was revealed that star defensive back Darrelle Revis would miss the rest of the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. If that news wasn’t bad enough, they are also going to have to find a way to get their offense going against the San Francisco 49ers this week. For the third time in the first four weeks, the 49ers will have to travel at least two time zones to play on the road.

The Minnesota Vikings used a mobile quarterback to get around San Francisco’s fearsome defense, which means Tim Tebow could see more touches this week for New York. Tebow has been most effective on special teams early in the season and has yet to assert himself as an offensive playmaker with the Jets. New York will be looking to drop San Francisco to .500 when the teams meet in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the 49ers as 3-point road favorites which was bet up to -4. The total dropped from 40.5 to 39.5 before being bet back to the original number.

WEATHER: The forecast for MetLife Stadium is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with temperatures dipping into the mid-60s. Winds will blow NNE at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): San Francisco was on the very short list of the best teams in the NFL after convincing wins over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, but slipped up last week in a 24-13 loss at Minnesota. The 49ers struggled to contain Christian Ponder in the pocket, and Alex Smith was uncharacteristically sloppy at quarterback. They just have to get through New York before enjoying a stretch of five of their next six games at home. San Francisco could try to exploit the Jets’ Revis-less secondary by featuring Randy Moss, who has been limited to eight catches in the first three weeks. Smith got a pair of new receivers in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in the offseason but is still focusing on tight end Vernon Davis in the passing game.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): There is plenty of doom and gloom surrounding New York after Revis’ diagnosis. The Pro Bowler served as the quarterback of the Jets defense, and his ability to lock down a receiver in single coverage made it easier for Rex Ryan to call multiple blitz packages. Now that Revis is done, Antonio Cromartie steps into the No. 1 cornerback slot and Kyle Wilson will replace Revis in the lineup. New York showed several areas of weakness in a sloppy 23-20 overtime win in Miami last weekend, including a running game that is averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt. Tebow lined up for 12 plays with the offense against Miami and accounted for zero yards. The Wildcat packages designed to get him onto the field have not worked and Tebow spent most of his time at H-back in Miami. Mark Sanchez has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in each of the last two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* 49ers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. team with winning road record.
* Over is 26-11 in Jets' last 37 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Sanchez will be without one of his weapons on Sunday, with rookie receiver Stephen Hill (hamstring) expected to sit out.

2. The 49ers are 10-1 under coach Jim Harbaugh when winning the time of possession battle and 5-3 when coming out on the short end.

3. San Francisco KR Kyle Williams set a career high with 144 yards on returns last week, outgaining the offense by himself at one point.

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NFL

Week 4

Sunday, September 30

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Saints at Packers: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 53)

Drew Brees recently said the replacement referees were “an embarrassment to the league.” Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers agreed. The good news is the regular referees will be back on the field - the NFLRA and the league reached an agreement late Wednesday - when the Packers try to rebound and send the the New Orleans Saints to just their second 0-4 start in 16 seasons Sunday at Lambeau Field. Brees’ Saints may be searching for answers after blowing an 18-point lead to fall to 0-3 last week, but the Packers are feeling the biggest losers heading into their Week 4 matchup after being robbed of a win Monday night.

Green Bay was leading Seattle 12-7 when the replacement referees ruled that Golden Tate hauled in a Hail Mary and upheld the call upon review, despite visual evidence that showed M.D. Jennings clearly had made a game-clinching interception. The backlash quickly forced a deal between the league and the officials. This is the first meeting since the memorable 2011 season-opening shootout that was won by the Packers 42-34 thanks to a last-second goal-line stand.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -9, O/U 53

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and sunny skies at Lambeau Field. Winds will be light out of east.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-3): Who ‘Dat? The answer, lately, is everyone. The Saints, who are still dealing with the fallout of Bountygate, are 0-3 for the first time since 2007 after losing to Kansas City 27-24 in overtime last week. Brees, who signed a five-year, $100 million contract this summer, hasn’t looked the same without suspended head coach Sean Payton calling the plays, and the defense has been atrocious (league-worst 477.3 ypg). Brees broke his own completion percentage record last season (71.6), but is connecting on just 54.7 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate since he became a full-time starter. He has a pedestrian touchdown-to-interception ratio (7 TDs, 5 INTs). Brees’ main target has been running back Darren Sproles, who leads the team with 18 catches. The speedy Sproles failed to record a reception for the first time since 2010 last week. Meanwhile, TE Jimmy Graham has a touchdown catch in six straight games.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-2): Green Bay is seething after having a game literally ripped away from it on Monday night. Several Packers players took to Twitter, bashing the league and the outcome. But they have other issues to address, mainly the fact that Rodgers has been sacked more times (16) than any quarterback after being taken down eight times in the first half of Monday’s loss. The poor protection has led to the Packers being ranked 24th in scoring (19.0). Like Brees, something is amiss about Rodgers as well. After throwing 45 touchdowns last season, the reigning league MVP has just three thus far. Green Bay’s defense is markedly improved, perhaps in part to Charles Woodson’s move to safety, and is No. 1 in the league against the pass (125.3 ypg). Linebacker Clay Matthews is well on his way to a bounce-back season, leading the league with six sacks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. “(The) 13th man beat us tonight.” – a tweet from Green Bay tight end Tom Crabtree in reference to Seattle’s famed 12th man – the 13th man being the officials.

2. The Saints are 2-9 on the road against the Packers.

3. New Orleans didn’t record a single first down in its final 12 offensive snaps last week. Brees was 0-for-6 in the fourth quarter and overtime.

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NFL weather watch: Six matchups threatened by rain

NFL game weather and resulting stadium conditions can have a significant impact on player performance and the outcome of football games. Bettors should take weather conditions into consideration, especially when placing over/under wagers.

Here are the matchups being threatened by inclement weather Sunday:

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (4, 48.5)

Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 60 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the north.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (4, 41)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with a 30 percent of precipitation. Winds will blow out of the west at 5 mph.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-7, 48.5)

Site: Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Forecasts are calling for mild temperatures in the low-70s with a slight 15 percent of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 11 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (1, 44.5)

Site: EverBank Field

It will be a hot and humid day in Florida. Temperatures are expected to soar into the high-80s with a 60 percent chance thunderstorms throughout the afternoon. Winds will be light out of the east.

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 47.5)

Site: Raymond James Stadium

Forecasts are predicting temperatures in the high-80s with a 20 percent of thunderstorms in the Tampa area. Winds will blow out of the south at 10 mph.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 47)

Forecasts suggest temperatures will dip into the high-50s for the Sunday nighter. There is also a 65 percent chance of showers and winds will blow out of the west at 7 mph

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Las Vegas Money Moves

September 29, 2012

It’s been a wild week in Las Vegas with all the hoopla surrounding the bad call in Monday night’s Packers-Seahawks game. Because the story was so big and the play of Golden Tate cleverly taking the ball away for the winning score was replayed by ESPN for almost 48 straight hours in Tim Tebow-like coverage from last season, one of the stories that found its way into the mainstream was the swing Las Vegas sports books took on the one play.

Reports came from all over the place with all kinds of misinformation being spread around due to writers misquoting sports book directors and also gathering their information from other unworthy sources such as Danny Sheridan, who was always one of my favorites growing up, but never realized how irrelevant he was to the betting world until I started working in a sports book.

Outlandish claims of a $1 billion swing on the game around the world was the headline that grabbed the most attention. It’s hard enough gathering quality factual information in Nevada where the betting is regulating and charted, let alone coming up with a figure for the entire world. But facts didn’t seem to matter in the story. The wow factor of $1 billion was enough to show the magnitude of the bad call on the most sensationalized level. Someone could have really got big headlines by saying they thought the swing was worth $2 billion, or why even stop there, $3 billion. Now that's a story.

The truth of the matter in Nevada was that there was anywhere from $10 to $15 million wagered on the game with about a $2 to $5 million swing on the game, not a $15 million swing as some were misquoted. People around the country wanted to make believe like this game was bet on Super Bowl proportions with a huge decision at stake, but there were several games that the books won more with on Sunday. Although the Seahawks winning was beneficial for most books, the deciding factor in the game was more about the game staying UNDER the total, as is the case for most high-profile isolated games.

The two-team parlay, with either side to the UNDER was what most books -- particularly the local books -- were sweating. I mention the local books because they are collectively the busiest in the state on a Monday night with volume, compared to the strip properties that have their occupancy fall by up to 50% with guest leaving on Sunday. Walk down the strip on a Monday through Thursday when a convention isn’t in town; it’s a ghost town compared to Friday through Sunday.

The spillover effect carried on all week as some sports books tried to make a marketing ploy out of the publicity, which I like. Why not make a splash and ride the wave of a story? Irish bookmaker Paddy Power immediately jumped into the fray with refunds on the Packers as part of their “Justice Payouts” their known for whenever an official or judge makes a bad call.

Here in Las Vegas, no one wanted to enter that territory. It’s a bad precedent to set -- refunding losing wagers. But one casino said the heck with it, and did it anyway despite the chain of sports books they’re affiliated with apparently not knowing anything about it. The D casino on Fremont, formerly the Fitzgerald, sent out a press release on Wednesday saying they would refund all wagers. William Hill runs their sports book, but couldn’t stop the casino promotion if they wanted to. If the boss wants to refund wagers by hand paying at the cage, that’s his choice.

The sports book at the D gets very limited action and it would be a fair estimation to say the wagers on the Packers totaled less than $10,000, and probably only half of that will be cashed in between tickets being ripped up, or others not knowing about the promotion. The likes of Floyd Mayweather do not make their bets at the D.

William Hill sports books didn’t follow suit with the payout at all their books, but they did offer a nice gesture to everyone betting the Packers this week. All wagers on the Packers will be offered at EVEN money with no juice attached. It’s not a refund, but it’s still a nice way to gain some publicity off a such a unique situation. And instead of losing $110 on the Packers this week, you might only lose $100.

Week 4 Line Moves

Either because bettors are busted from the past two weeks of getting mugged by the sports books, or they are skeptical of the lines and indecisive, the action has been light this week with not a lot of movement.

The Packers have held steady at -7 ½ for most of the week for their home game against the Saints. There was a bump up to -8 on Tuesday, but that number was gone by Wednesday. Both teams are combined 1-5 straight-up and against-the-spread this season.

The Patriots could lose their third straight game for the first time in 10 years, but bettors aren’t buying into it. The Pats opened -3 and have been bet up -4 for their game at Buffalo. The total in this game is the puzzling part, as it's gone down from 51 to 50. In last season;s game at Buffalo, the Bills won, 34-31.

Sports books didn’t have a line posted on the Lions all week because of Matthew Stafford’s questionable status (hip), but when he was upgraded to probable, the books posted a number of -4 at home against the Vikings as if Shaun hill was going to be starting. This game was set to be at least -7.5 with Stafford playing. Expect a run on the game and if you like the Lions, get it now.

The Panthers found a little support this week in their road game at Atlanta. Despite the Falcons being perfect in virtually every category imaginable, and the Panthers looking awful last Thursday night, the Panthers went from +7 ½ to +7.

The 49ers are staying in the Eastern time zone this week -- no travel back to San Francisco following the Minnesota game, just as they did last season when they had back-to-back road games afar. The 49ers opened as three-point favorites against the Jets and have been bet up -4.

The Cardinals have been the underdog in each of their first three games, and won them all. This week they opened as a seven-point home favorites against the Dolphins. Money came in on the Dolphins immediately, dropping the game to -6.5. And then on Thursday, after Reggie Bush was announced to be playing, the game dropped to -5.5.

The Broncos have lost four straight home games to the Raiders, and haven’t covered their past six, but they still opened as 6 ½-point favorites and have been bet up to -7. Peyton Manning has gotten off to slow starts in each of his three starts this season, leading to a disappointing 1-2 record, a start that some believe Tebow could have matched.

It’s apparent that the Redskins are going to score a lot of points this season, but also give up a ton too, which makes the total dropping in their game at Tampa Bay a little perplexing. The total opened at 48 ½ and has been bet down to 47 ½, likely because of the Bucs defense looking to be their strength. The money has been on the Redskins side as bettors took +3, dropping the line to +2 ½.

The Eagles opened as three-point favorites for their Sunday night home game against the Giants, but G-Men money dropped the game to -1. When it was announced that Hakeem Nicks would not play, the game moved back up to -2 ½. The Nicks angle didn’t work out too well for bettors who jumped on the Panthers under the same circumstances last Thursday.

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Total Talk - Week 4

September 29, 2012

Week 2 Recap

The 'under' produced a 10-6 record in Week 3 and almost all of the outcomes were on great paces at halftime. The Dolphins and Jets was one exception, as the two teams turned a 7-6 game at the break into a 23-20 final. Also, Arizona led Philadelphia 24-0 after two quarters but neither team could execute in the second-half and gamblers saw the 27-6 final score go 'under' the closing number of 42. On the year, the 'under' stands at 25-23 through 48 games.

Early Thoughts

I've often been asked by users how I handicap totals in the NFL. Everybody has their own unique style but I believe the starting point is the matchup between the offensive and defensive units for the teams involved. VegasInsider.com has plenty of power ratings available, where you can differentiate those units.

I personally put more stock into yards gained and yards allowed, rather than points scored and allowed. If you can move the chains consistently, you'll eventually score. And if you can force three-and-outs, teams won't score. The perfect combination for an 'over' team is a great offense and bad defense. Conversely, a great 'under' club has a sound defense and an inconsistent offense. It's pretty simple to grasp and you can see those facts have already played out.

Cincinnati and Washington are the only teams to see all three of their games go 'over' the number this season. Most would assume it's the offense that's the reason behind those results, but the lack of defense shouldn't go unnoticed. The Bengals (416) and Redskins (429) are ranked 29th and 30th in yards allowed.

Dallas (250) and Houston (255) own the two best defensive units in the NFL in terms of yards allowed and to no surprise, the Cowboys (3-0) and Texans (2-1) have combined for a 5-1 'under' mark. Similar to Dallas, the Cardinals and Seahawks both own 3-0 records to the 'under' and both have stout defensive units, plus the aforementioned inconsistent offense.

Head-to-Head Trends

New England at Buffalo: The Patriots have scored 49, 31, 34 and 38 in the last four encounters with the Bills, which has helped the 'over' go 3-1 during this span
Minnesota at Detroit: The 'over' went 2-0 last year but the 'under' was on a 6-0 prior to 2011
Carolina at Atlanta: Last year, the total went 1-1 but the combined points were 48 and 54
San Diego at Kansas City: The 'under' has cashed in four straight here and the total is hovering in the same neighborhood
Tennessee at Houston: Three straight 'over' tickets in this series
Seattle at St. Louis: The 'under' is on a 3-1 run in this series
Oakland at Denver: The 'over' has gone 5-0 in the last five encounters
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Three of the last four have gone 'under'

Line Moves

Week 3 had eight games that saw the line move 1 ½ points or more at CRIS. Unlike Week 2 when the moves went 1-4 overall, the action came out on top in Week 3 with a 7-1 record. Here are the totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS.

Minnesota at Detroit: Line opened 47 and jumped to 48 1/2
Carolina at Atlanta: Line opened 50 and dropped 48 1/2
San Diego at Kansas City: Line opened 46 and dropped 44 ½
Seattle at St. Louis: Line opened 40 ½ and dropped to 39
Miami at Arizona: Line opened 41 and dropped to 39
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Line opened 41 ½ and jumped to 44 1/2
Washington at Tampa Bay: Line opened 49 and dropped to 47 1/2
Chicago at Dallas: Line opened 45 and dropped to 41 ½

50-Spots

Based on closing numbers, there have been six games this season with totals listed at 50 or higher. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests and three of the six have had New Orleans involved. The Saints saw their first two games go 'over' as they gave up 40 and 35 points to the Redskins and Panthers respectively. Last week, New Orleans lost to the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime and despite the high output, the game closed at 51 ½ points and stayed 'under.'

This week, the Saints head to Green Bay and once again the total is in the fifties but the number might be too high here. The line opened 54 and has already dropped to 53 at most outfits. If you look at the matchup based on past history, you would lean to the 'over.'

However, Green Bay's offense is far behind its defense, which is real good. We understand the Saints' defense is awful (34 PPG, 477 YPG), but their offense isn't clicking and it looked horrible last week (288 yards) against the Chiefs, especially quarterback Drew Brees, who failed to complete a pass in the fourth quarter or overtime during last week's home setback.

Last year, this pair put up 76 points in the 2011 Week 1 opener at Lambeau Field and the 'over' ticket (47) was never in doubt. If you're smart, forget that outcome and expect a complete change on Sunday.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday's affair between the Browns and Ravens, the 'under' has now produced an 8-3 (73%) record in primetime games.

Fearless Predictions

Just like that, we're in the black! After losing $220 in Week 2, we swept all of the wagers for a profit of $400 based on one-unit plays. With season profits of $180, let's try to keep it rolling. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Buffalo 50 1/2

Best Under: Chicago-Dallas 41 1/2

Best Team Total: Under St. Louis 18 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 42 ½ New England-Buffalo
Under 48 Seattle-St. Louis
Under 62 New Orleans-Green Bay

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NFL

Sunday, September 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England -4 500 ( GOM )Buffalo - Under 48.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Houston -13 500
Houston - Over 45 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +1 500
Kansas City - Under 44 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +3.5 500
Detroit - Under 48.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +7 500
Atlanta - Over 48 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +2.5 500
St. Louis - Over 39.5 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco -3.5 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 40.5 500

More later.....GOOD LUCK !

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Not sure why this wasn't posted....

Miami - 4:05 PM ET Miami +4.5 500
Arizona - Under 40.5 500

Oakland - 4:05 PM ET Denver -6.5 500
Denver - Under 48 500

Cincinnati - 4:05 PM ET Jacksonville -1 500
Jacksonville - Over 44.5 500

New Orleans - 4:25 PM ET Green Bay -9 500
Green Bay - Over 53.5 500

Washington - 4:25 PM ET Washington +1 500
Tampa Bay - Under 45.5 500


Sunday night play:

N.Y. Giants - 8:20 PM ET N.Y. Giants +1 500

Philadelphia - Under 46.5 500

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NFL

Week 4

Monday, October 1

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Bears at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 41.5)

Tony Romo and Jay Cutler have come under fire for less-than-stellar performances thus far this season. While their respective stat lines haven't been aesthetically pleasing, the end results have still been promising. Both quarterbacks will look to guide their respective teams to an impressive 3-1 start when Romo's Dallas Cowboys host the Chicago Bears on Monday night. The clubs rode solid defensive efforts to their victories last week as Dallas held Tampa Bay to just 166 total yards en route to a 16-10 victory. Not to be outdone, Chicago benefited from six of its NFL-leading 14 sacks in last week's 23-6 triumph over St. Louis. The Cowboys' beleaguered offensive line is on notice after committing several penalties while struggling with pass protection.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Cowboys -3.5, O/U 41.5.

ABOUT THE BEARS (2-1): Cutler has been erratic at best this season, and will now have to keep a wary eye on right outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (four sacks). Left tackle J'Marcus Webb, who was on the receiving end of a sideline shove from Cutler, will bear most of the responsibility for protecting his quarterback. Pro Bowl RB Matt Forte resumed practicing after injuring his ankle against Green Bay in Week 2, but it's unknown how much - if at all - he'll play on Monday. Michael Bush had 55 yards last week and scored his third touchdown of the season.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-1): Dallas would be well served to get DeMarco Murray untracked. The Cowboys' starting rusher had an 11-yard touchdown last week, but mustered just 38 yards on 18 carries - with seven of those coming for a loss. Keeping Bears stud wide receiver Brandon Marshall in check would be wise as well. Marshall has scored a touchdown in both career contests versus Dallas, but he'll likely be paid a visit by Gerald Sensabaugh. The safety missed last week's game with a calf strain, but expects to play on Monday.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games overall.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Under is 7-3 in Bears’ last 10 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Dallas S Danny McCray will replace starter Barry Church, who underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon. In addition, the Cowboys signed punter Brian Moorman to fill in for an injured Chris Jones (sprained knee).

2. Cutler's passer rating of 58.6 is second worst among qualifiers, ahead of only Miami rookie Ryan Tannehill (58.3).

3. Although Dallas boasts big CBs Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne, no member of the team's secondary has an interception this season. Cutler, who has thrown six, is tied with Cleveland rookie Brandon Weeden and Philadelphia's Michael Vick for the most this season.

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MNF - Bears at Cowboys

September 30, 2012

The Week 4 card closes out in Arlington on Monday night with a pair of NFC squads hooking up. The Cowboys have alternated wins and losses in each of their first three contests, coming off last week's victory over the Buccaneers, while the Bears also seek consistency following a home triumph over the Rams.

Dallas started the season with an impressive road underdog showing against the rival Giants, 24-17, but the Cowboys failed to cover in a loss at Seattle and a 16-10 home win over Tampa Bay. Both ATS losses came in the favorite role, as Dallas owns a dreadful 4-17-1 ATS record when laying points since the start of the 2010 season. The Cowboys defense held the offensively inept Buccaneers in check, giving up an early touchdown and a field goal in the final minute, while allowing just 166 yards.

Chicago's defense has always been its staple and it showed again last week with a late interceptions return for a touchdown in a 23-6 rout of St. Louis as seven-point favorites. The Bears played without running back Matt Forte, who suffered an ankle injury in a Week 2 loss at Green Bay, but the Pro Bowler is expected back on Monday night. The Rams were held to 160 yards, while the Bears have given up just one offensive touchdown in the last two weeks.

The last time these two teams met up came in Week 2 of 2010 in Texas, as the Bears knocked off the Cowboys, 27-20 as seven-point underdogs. One of Dallas' two touchdowns came on a 62-yard punt return from Dez Bryant, while Jay Cutler carved up the Cowboys' defense for three touchdowns. Both clubs struggling running the ball, as the Bears rushed for 38 yards, while the Cowboys amassed 36 yards on the ground.

The Cowboys are known as America's Team, but they sure don't take care of business under the Monday night lights. Dallas has compiled a 1-6 ATS mark since 2006 on Mondays, but has found a way to win four of the last five straight-up in this situation. Last season, the Cowboys edged the Redskins in their only Monday night contest, 18-16 as three-point favorites, as Dan Bailey tied a rookie NFL record by kicking six field goals in the win.

Lovie Smith's club has won five of the last six Monday night games, while covering four of six Monday road contests since 2004. In 2011, the Bears split a pair of Monday nighters against Lions and Eagles, as Chicago lost, 24-13 at Detroit as seven-point underdogs. The Bears rebounded at Philadelphia in a 30-24 shootout win, cashing outright as 7 ½-point underdogs.

From a totals standpoint, Dallas' defense has stepped up by cashing the 'under' in all three games, while allowing just 17 points or less in both victories. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have combined to score just 23 points the last two weeks after tallying 24 points in the series opener at New York. The Bears look to duplicate a Week 1 effort against the Colts in which they scored 41 points, as Chicago has cashed the 'under' each of the last two weeks by tallying a combined 33 points.

The favorites have split the first four Monday night contests this season, but were on the verge of going 3-1 SU/ATS if it wasn't for the disputed touchdown at Seattle last Monday. The 'under' has hit in each of the last three Monday nighters following an 'over' in the Cincinnati/Baltimore opener.

The Cowboys are listed as 3 ½-point favorites in most spots, while the total is set at 41 ½. The game kicks off at 8:35 PM EST from Cowboys Stadium and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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NFL Week 4 Preview: Bears at Cowboys

CHICAGO BEARS (2-1)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-1)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -3, Total: 41½

A pair of 2-1 teams close out Week 4 with a marquee Monday night matchup when Dallas hosts Chicago.

Both of these teams are still feeling their way offensively, as the Bears have been without RB Matt Forte (ankle) and QB Jay Cutler is playing erratic. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have failed to move the ball the past two games after an impressive opening win against the Giants. Chicago had just 168 yards of offense and four turnovers in its Week 2 loss at Green Bay, and a mere 274 yards in last week’s home win over the Rams. The probable return of Forte should help jump-start the offense. Dallas has been riding its much-improved defense this year, and it smothered the Bucs in Week 3 despite having to move newly signed top CB Brandon Carr to safety in their increasingly patchwork secondary.

Which team will prevail on Monday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Cutler has completed just 52.7% of his passes for 642 yards, 3 TD and 6 INT this season, while taking 11 sacks. However, in his lone trip to Dallas two years ago, Cutler lit up the Cowboys for 277 yards on 21-of-29 completions, throwing 3 TD and 0 INT in a 27-20 victory. Forte was held to 29 yards on 10 carries in that meeting, but in his only full game this season, he compiled 120 total yards and a touchdown in a 41-21 win over Indianapolis. Michael Bush has gotten the full workload with Forte out, but Bush hasn’t done much in the past two games, apparently slowed by a shoulder injury, rushing for just 109 yards on 32 carries (3.4 YPC). Cutler has been zeroing in on his favorite target, WR Brandon Marshall, probably too much as he’s thrown exactly one-third of his passes to his former Denver teammate. Marshall has 16 catches for 214 yards, but no other Chicago player has even 10 receptions in the three games. Defensively, the Bears have been strong in both facets, ranking sixth in the NFL in both rushing defense (76 YPG) and passing defense (203 YPG). These yardage numbers have been kept to a minimum thanks to nine forced turnovers in three games.

The Cowboys need more balance on offense, ranking 13th in the NFL in passing (265 YPG), but fifth-worst in rushing yards (77 YPG). This team was most certainly not balanced the last time they faced Chicago in 2010, as Tony Romo threw for 374 yards, but the rushing offense gained a paltry 36 yards on 20 carries. In the past two weeks versus Seattle and Tampa Bay, Dallas has gained a pathetic 87 yards on 39 carries (2.2 YPC). DeMarco Murray, who had 131 rushing yards on 6.6 YPC in Week 1, has just 82 rushing yards on 2.7 YPC over these past two weeks. One of the reasons Dallas has thrown so often is because Romo has great depth in his receiving corps as four receivers have gotten a nearly equal amount of targets -- WR Miles Austin (22 targets), TE Jason Witten (21 targets), WR Kevin Ogletree (20 targets) and WR Dez Bryant (20 targets). Defensively, OLB DeMarcus Ware has sparked the pass rush with four sacks, but the team has just one interception all season, by LB Sean Lee. However, Dallas still ranks second in the NFL in passing defense (137 YPG) despite three injured safeties -- Gerald Sensabaugh (calf), Matt Johnson (hamstring) and Barry Church (Achilles). Also, DTs Jay Ratliff (ankle) and Kenyon Coleman (knee) are both questionable for Monday night.

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Bettors strike back!

October 1, 2012

Everyone loves a good comeback story which is why we always enjoy some variation of the little guy making good at the end of a movie or book. It’s inspirational, uplifting and makes us feel good about the possibilities we all have within ourselves to perceiver against the odds a system stacks against us. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Rocky Balboa, Billy Jack or even Return of the Jedi, we all can’t get enough of that type of feel-good story that avenges some past wounds.
Here in Las Vegas, we had a story of vengeance fulfilled and pride restored as the bettors finally got the best of the sportsbooks in Week 4 of NFL action. The first three weeks of the season got progressively worse for the player, and Week 3 was the point in a typical Hollywood script where you felt the most sympathy for the character wronged.

The wronged in this story was the bettor. The evil tyrant is the Las Vegas sports book. But there was no back story involving mischief by the book like a power hungry mayor squeezing upon his small town citizens. Bettors could have just as easily bet the winning side over the first three weeks just as they did the losing side. But it’s a hard sell.

The recreational bettor loves to play the favorites. They can‘t help it, whether it’s a straight bet, point-spread parlay, money-line parlay or teasers. In all facets during Week 3, they got crushed by the sports books. It may be a lousy strategy to side with the favorites weekly, but it’s hard to change habits, especially when a few teams in the past have produced nice consistent pay days.

In Week 4, instead of jumping off the wagon on a few teams, bettors tried a new strategy by cautiously playing some of their favorite teams on the money-line and teasers. The payouts are less, but it helped them all exact revenge and force the books to feel some of the pain they’ve felt through this young football season.

The root of all strategies began with taking the Patriots laying four points at Buffalo and the 49ers laying 4 ½-points at the Jets. While it looked like the Bills would provide another upset the books have been ringing in the cash register with all season -- up 21-7 early in the third-quarter, the Patriots showed their faithful some of the magic they all remembered from days of yesteryear in a 52-28 blowout.

The 49ers have been one of the top bet teams all season, and despite losing last week at Minnesota, bettors stayed the course and rode out the mini-storm. And it paid off as the 49ers thoroughly dominated the Jets, 34-0.

From there, the rest of the Sunday was gravy. In addition to 13-to-5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260) being paid on parlays from the Patriots and 49ers to almost everyone, the two teams started an avalanche of larger parlays and teasers.

The game that gave long life to money-line parlays and teasers on the day was the Falcons 30-28 win against the Panthers. The Falcons were a popular choice laying seven, which didn’t cover, but their link to the rest of the day on money-line parlays and teasers assured the books that they were in a no-win situation.

When you throw in the Broncos 37-6 win over the Raiders and the Texans 38-14 blowout over the Titans, the liability just continued to grow. And then the books had the all-way teaser payouts -- both sides and both totals -- on the Cardinals 24-21 over the Dolphins and the Redskins 24-22 win at Tampa Bay.

The only hope the sports books had of salvaging something at the end of the day was the Eagles covering 2 ½-points at home against the Giants. As fate would have it, the Eagles won by two, 19-17. The UNDER was good for the house, but the Eagles 2-point win was the defining blow in the script finale.

Overall, the weekend was awful for the sports books, and it wasn’t just the NFL. Saturday’s college football action was sort of a push with small winners or losers around town, a big change from the consistent win through the first four weeks of action.

Perhaps the worst part for the books has been the daily losses in baseball as the big favorites seem to be getting there, not just on the money-line, but on the run-line as well. The only silver lining here has been that baseball has been on the back-burner ever since football started. Had baseball been front and center like it was in July, with these types of favorites coming in, Saturday and Sunday would have been an absolute blood bath for the books.

Each week the wind seems to blow in a different direction, but let what happened in Week 4 of the NFL be a friendly reminder of how to beat the books. There is a reason why NFL teasers pay less than college and it’s because the spreads are sharper and more dependable. When you can add 6 to 7 points on any of the pro lines, you’re getting the best of the value. Also, two-team parlays are the extent of where real value lies within the parlays, unless we’re discussing several line moves on a stale parlay card in your favor.

Week 5 has some great opportunities, go get ’em, and may the force be with you.

Jets out of Fuel

When watching quarterback Mark Sanchez stink up his own stadium Sunday against the 49ers, you have to wonder what is going through coach Rex Ryan’s mind. Most of us figured at some point that Tim Tebow would be taking over the helm as starting quarterback for the Jets, but no one figured that he would be treated like some kind of pariah through the first four weeks.

When Ryan brought in Tebow, he talked openly about all the things he would bring to the Jets in key short-yardage situations and his skills inside the red zone, all attributes he has yet to utilize. He’s watched Sanchez week after week struggle in goal line situations and last week may have been the worst.

So the question is - why did Ryan bring in Tebow? There are so many areas offensively -- their weak link -- that Tebow could improve upon, especially in their running game. Ryan loves to pound the ball on the ground and he hates turnovers, yet he uses Sanchez in every situation and eliminates so much potential by not including Tebow anywhere.

The fear could probably be knowing that once Tebow gets in, there’s no way to take him out because of success, the same type of success John Elway hated in Denver. Ryan loves Tebow, so the problem is probably more deep rooted within the Jets’ executives. It may take another ineffective week of Sanchez for the entire nation to watch on Monday night against the Texans this week for senses to kick in and say a change is needed. Right now, it looks like their best option to win is by letting Tebow run the show.

Love him or hate him, there’s no denying that Tebow in the spread option is hard to defend and above all, he's a winner. The Jets could sure use some of that right now.