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**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2012, 05:37 PM

Head Coaching Debuts

September 2, 2012

With the NFL season starting this week, there are a handful of brand new head coaches making their debut in Week 1. For the exception of Jeff Fisher (Rams), Romeo Crennel (Chiefs), and Mike Mularkey (Jaguars), who have previous head coaching experience in the NFL, we'll take a look at the four new head men and the uphill battle they face in the opener.

Chuck Pagano (Colts), Greg Schiano (Buccaneers), Joe Philbin (Dolphins), and Dennis Allen (Raiders) are all listed as underdogs in Week 1, while Tampa Bay and Oakland take on division foes at home. Pagano and Philbin are also faced with the tall task of starting on the road with rookie quarterbacks, as the likes of Carolina (2011) and Detroit (2009) lost on the highway with a first-year coach and a quarterback making his debut.

Since 2007, there have been 20 coaches making their professional debut, as these men are just 8-12 SU and 8-11-1 ATS. Six coaches were listed as favorites, with Mike Tomlin ('07) and Jim Harbaugh ('11) as the only two to win straight-up and cover the spread. We'll focus more on underdog history, since this is the situation in Week 1.

Look for low-scoring games with coaches making their debut as road underdogs, posting a 7-3-1 mark to the 'under' the last five seasons. Two of the three high-scoring affairs came in 2009, with Jim Schwartz when the Lions fell at New Orleans, 45-27 and Todd Haley's debut with Kansas City at Baltimore, a 38-24 setback. The third 'over' in this 11-game sample occurred last September when the Panthers lost in a shootout at Arizona, but two of these three 'overs' happened with a top pick under center (Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford).

The Bucs and Raiders are short home 'dogs, as teams in this situation since 2007 are just 2-2 SU/ATS. The two victories came in 2008 with clubs that ended up making the postseason as Atlanta and Baltimore both came out with wins, while rookie quarterbacks made the start. Tampa Bay and Oakland aren't in that situation as Josh Freeman and Carson Palmer return as starting quarterbacks, respectively.

The Colts finished 4-1 ATS last season when receiving at least nine points, as Indianapolis heads to Chicago in Week 1. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was the worst ATS team in the final 10 games of last season, cashing just once, while its last victory came at home against Tampa Bay in October 2011.

Miami begins this campaign with eighth overall pick Ryan Tannehill starting under center, even though Matt Moore won six of the final nine games for the Dolphins last season. The Dolphins have never beaten the Texans in six lifetime meetings, including three losses by three points or less at Reliant Stadium.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2012, 05:39 PM

Cowboys-Giants open 2012 season Wednesday

DALLAS COWBOYS (0-0)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (0-0)

Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -4, Total: 46

The 2012 NFL season gets underway on Wednesday night in New Jersey when the defending Super Bowl champion Giants host the rival Cowboys.

Although New York has a slight 21-20 edge in the overall series since 1992, the Giants have prevailed in five of the past six meetings. Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning has thrown for 333 passing YPG, 15 TD and 7 INT in this six-game stretch. However, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has also kept these matchups high-scoring, throwing for 234 passing YPG, 11 TD and 4 INT in five games during this string. Despite the tendency for both teams to throw the pigskin, the winner of this matchup could be determined on the ground. Although Dallas has rushed for a mere 75 YPG in its past five meetings in this series, New York was the NFL’s worst rushing offense in both yards (89 YPG) and yards per carry (3.5) last season. Which team will start off its season with victory on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Dallas brings in new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan, but he’s isn’t going to drastically alter this offense. Romo is coming off an excellent season, posting a career-best 102.5 QB rating with 4,184 passing yards, 31 TD and 10 INT. He has also thrived playing on the road in this series, completing 90-of-120 passes for 928 yards, 9 TD and 2 INT in his past three games at New York. If Witten and Austin aren’t close to 100 percent, Romo will need Dez Bryant to step up. Bryant had a great sophomore season in the NFL last year, catching 63 passes for 928 yards and 9 TD. But Dallas needs to establish its running game to keep the Giants fearsome front four at bay. DeMarco Murray proved he was worthy of the Cowboys starting RB job last season, rushing for 897 yards on 5.5 YPC, but had just five carries against New York last season, gaining 25 yards in limited duty. OLB DeMarcus Ware led the Dallas defense last year, piling up 19.5 sacks (2nd in NFL), and also helped the run-stop unit place seventh in the league in rushing defense (99 YPG).

Manning had arguably his best season in 2011, finishing with a career-high 4,933 passing yards, while throwing 29 TD and 16 INT. Top WR Hakeem Nicks has been battling through a foot injury in the preseason, but he will play on Wednesday. Nicks had 239 of his 1,192 receiving yards against Dallas last year. Slot man Victor Cruz busted out for 1,536 receiving yards in 2012, capping off his regular season with a 178-yard performance against Dallas. RB Ahmad Bradshaw didn’t have a great 2011 season (3.9 YPC), which is why the team drafted rookie RB David Wilson in the first round to help ease Bradshaw’s workload. Although the Giants offense is intact from a health standpoint, the defense will be missing its top two cornerbacks, Prince Amukamara (ankle), and Terrell Thomas (ACL), who is out for the season. However, the league’s most formidable front four returns, led by Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks, 4th in NFL) who had 13 tackles and three sacks in the two meetings with Dallas last year.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2012, 05:43 PM

Where the action is: NFL Week 1's biggest line moves

Tracking line moves during Week 1 of the NFL season is a different animal than any other week on the schedule.

Most games have had spreads available since the spring and have been influenced by a summer’s worth of stories, injuries and action.

With the 2012 NFL season finally kicking off this week, we dissect the biggest line moves of Week 1 with help of Mike Colbert, race and sportsbook director for Cantor Gaming.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Open: Arizona -1, Currently: Seattle -3)

Arizona opened as a slight home favorite but its issues nailing down a starting QB during the preseason pushed a lot of money towards Seattle. Football bettors are banking on the Seahawks, even though they're going with rookie QB Russell Wilson under center for Week 1.

“We’ve taken a boatload of money on Seattle. It’s one of our biggest decisions,” Colbert told Covers. “The Seahawks are going with Wilson, which I think is a good decision but it’s also a question mark. We’re not quite at -3 yet. I don’t think we’ll get there but if we do, people will start buying back on Arizona.”

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Open: New York -6, Currently: New York -3)

A poor performance from New York in the preseason and a growing buzz around Buffalo has sliced this Week 1 spread in half. Cantor’s Las Vegas books opened with the Jets -5.5 and have been bet all the way down to a field goal. And Colbert doesn’t see it stopping there.

“The Bills are one of the sexy teams to start the year,” he says. “They have one of the best defensive lines out there. They’re really good up front. A lot of this depends on (QB Ryan) Fitzpatrick and how he plays. You’re going to see 2.5 on this one. Then you’ll get some buyback on the Jets.”

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (Open: Houston -7, Currently: Houston -11.5)

According to Colbert, this is the biggest decision in terms of one-sided action the favorite for Cantor in Week 1. They opened Houston at -6.5 back in the spring and didn’t take any serious money until the line moved to -9.5.

“It’s all Texans,” says Colbert, who currently has Houston -11. “A lot of this has to do with the Dolphins' quarterback situation, going with (rookie QB Ryan) Tannehill. Some smart guys think Miami is willing to give away a few wins just to build him up and give him time.”

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (Open: New Orleans -11, Currently: New Orleans -9)

In the wake of "Bounty Gate", football bettors have been slowly fading the Saints for their Week 1 date against the Redskins and rookie sensation Robert Griffin III. Colbert says there are more bets riding on the dog and understands why.

“I’m not really high on the Saints and I think it’ll hurt them not having (suspended head coach Sean) Payton on the sidelines,” he says. “We’ll know right away what kind of team the Saints are going to be this year. I think 9.5 or 10 points is too many.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (Open: Denver -3, Currently: Pick)

Cantor’s books have gone up and down with this Week 1 spread. They opened Denver -1 and went to Pittsburgh -1 then to Denver -2.5 before settling at Denver -1 again. Some online books are dealing this Sunday Night Football showdown as a pick’em.

“This is a revenge game for the Steelers but they're without James Harrison and Ryan Clark has the sickle cell issue, Mendenhall is hurt. I kind of like Denver,” says Colbert. “This game has been bet pretty even so far but I could see it moving slightly to Denver -2.5.”

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2012, 05:52 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Wednesday
Cowboys @ Giants— Defending Super Bowl champs are 9-1-2 vs spread in their next season’s opener last 12 years (12-0 SU). Giants won last four home openers; since ’90, they’re 10-4 vs spread as favorite in home openers, but just 12-18-1 vs spread in last 31 games as a home favorite. Dallas owner Jones was mouthing off about “kicking the Giants’ ass; his Cowboys are 2-7 in last nine series games, losing 37-34/31-14 in LY’s meetings- they’ve lost three of last four visits here, losing by 21-7-17 points, but are 8-4 vs spread in last dozen games as road underdogs. Dallas is opening on road for fifth year in row. 14-8 vs spread in last 22 road openers, losing last two, by 6-3 points. 12 of their last 15 road openers went over total, as did four of Big Blue’s last five home openers. Average total in last six series games is 61.

Sunday
Colts @ Bears— Indy has new coach, new QB; they’re glorified expansion team, starting fresh, so they’re trends don’t mean as much, but they did cover four of five LY as double digit underdogs. Colts lost 34-24/34-7 in last two road openers, after having won nine of previous ten. Teams with rookie QBs figure to struggle on foreign soil early on. Chicago won 29-13 at Indy in last meeting in ’08, teams’ only meeting since Colts beat Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Since ’96, underdogs are 13-3 vs spread in Chicago’s home openers, with Bears just 2-8 vs spread as favorite; they’ve won six of last seven home openers, allowing 13.3 ppg last three years. Since 2007, Chicago is just 9-15-1 as home favorites, but they did cover last two tries when laying double digits. Five of Indy’s last seven road openers stayed under total.

Eagles @ Browns— Lot of commonality between coaching staffs; been rough summer off field for Coach Reid. Philly is just 4-6 as road favorite last two years, with six of 11 road wins by 7 or less points. Since being reborn in 1999, Browns are 1-12 in home openers, 1-11-1 vs spread; they were favored/even in five of the 12 losses- they’re 0-7 vs spread in last seven home openers, with under 8-4 in their last 12. 12 of those 13 home openers came in Week 1. Cleveland is 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as home underdog; they’re 3-7-2 vs spread v NFC teams last three years. Philly are 3-0 vs new Browns, scoring 35-34-30 points; they’ve won last three road openers, scoring 31+ points in last four. Since ’88, Philly is 14-8 vs spread in road openers; 6-4 as favorite, 8-4 as dog. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four road openers. Teams met in preseason two weeks ago, but Vick didn’t play.

Bills @ Jets— How will Gang Green utilize Tebow? How will Sanchez react if he struggles early and gets pulled? Fickle home folks could turn ugly if Jets stumble early vs Buffalo squad that lost last five games to Jets by average score of 30-14, losing last two visits here, 38-7/28-24. Bills are 7-3 in last ten tries as road dogs in road openers; since 2000, they’re 3-0 as Week 1 road dog. Buffalo is 12-6 as road underdogs in divisional games last six years. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under the total. Over last 20 years, Jets are 2-8 vs spread as favorite in home opener, losing 14 of 20 (2-1 last three years). Three of their last four home openers stayed under total. Jets covered five of last six season openers; since 2007, they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a home favorite in divisional games. Bills trading for Tarvaris Jackson raised some eyebrows.

Redskins @ Saints— Lot of unusual variables here. How will Saints function without Payton/Vitt on sidelines? Who will make key 4th down calls? Redskins using rookie QB in hostile environment; tough way to start. Washington won its last six visits to New Orleans, with last visit in ’06. Road team won six of last seven series games. New Orleans won four in row and 11 of last 14 home openers, scoring 28.3 ppg in last four; they’re 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine as favorite in home openers, with 11 of last 15 staying under total. New Orleans won last five Sunday openers. Washington lost nine of last 12 road openers, losing last four, scoring 14 ppg. 1-5 vs spread in last six as underdog. Under is 8-3-1 in Washington’s last dozen road openers. Since ’07, Redskins are 18-12-3 as road underdogs. Since ’08, Saints are 19-9-1 as a home favorite.

Patriots @ Titans— Since 1998, Super Bowl losers are 0-13 vs spread (2-11 SU) in their next season’s opener. Teams’ first meeting since Patriots waxed Tennessee 59-0 on snowy October day in Foxboro three years ago, their fourth straight series win. Tennessee covered seven of last ten home openers, four of last five that were in Week 1; they’re 7-0 vs spread last seven times they were underdog in home opener, with last non-cover 34-17 (+5) vs Steelers in ’95. Patriots won last eight season openers (4-3-1 vs spread); they’re 6-6 in last dozen road openers, 1-2 in last three; since ’92, they’re 1-11 in road openers if they score 21 or less points, 7-1 if they score 23+. Four of their last six road openers went over total. Titans’ last three home openers went over total. Pats split two visits here, losing 24-7 in ’02, winning 40-23 in ’06.

Jaguars @ Vikings— New owner/coach/QB for Jaguars, who lost last four road openers (1-3 vs spread) by average score of 25-9, losing 38-13/32-3 in Week 2 road openers last two years. In their history, are solid 7-4 vs spread as underdog in road openers. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under total. First time in five years Vikings are opening season at home; Minnesota lost three of last four home openers, with all four decided by four or less points; since ’99, they’re 3-8 vs spread as favorite in home openers. You're reading ***************.com. Vikings won three of four series games, with none of four decided by less than 11 points. Only Jaguar win was 33-3 here in ’01. Since ’88, under is 16-7-1 in Metrodome home openers.

Dolphins @ Texans— High expectations in Houston after their first playoff appearance LY; they’re 6-0 vs Dolphins, with all three wins here by 3 or less points- only one of the six wins is by more than 7 points. Rookie QB gets the nod for Miami, which lost seven of last eight road openers (1-5-1 vs spread in last seven), with only win at Buffalo in ’10. Once-proud Fish are 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games as underdog in road opener. Texans won 34-24/34-7 in last two home openers, after losing six of first eight in franchise history; they’re 2-2 as Week 1 home favorite. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Houston allowed 24+ points in seven of last nine home openers. Under is 13-5 in Miami’s last 18 road openers.

Rams @ Lions— Third offense in three years for young QB Bradford; main question is can rebuilt OL keep him on his feet? Rams are 15-65 last five years, worst 5-year stretch in NFL history; they hired former Titan HC Fisher to right ship. His DC in Tennessee was current Lion HC Schwartz, so team will play similar defenses. St Louis lost last ten road openers (1-9 vs spread) by average score of 26-12, with five of last six staying under total. Last time Rams won season opener was 18-10 home win (+3.5) over Denver in 2006. Detroit is 14-6-1 vs spread in last 21 home openers, but lost three of last four (32-35/48-3 L2 years). First time in six years they’re opening season at home. Three of last four home openers went over. Rams are 3-2 in last five series games; ’09 Rams’ only win came here, 17-10. ’10 Rams lost 44-10 here.

Falcons @ Chiefs— Home side won five of last six series games, all decided by 11+ points; Falcons have never won here, losing 38-10/14-3/56-10 (’04). Atlanta whupped KC 38-14 at home in last meeting (’08). Chiefs started 0-1 five of last six years. Chiefs are 4-8 in last dozen home openers, scoring 13 or less points in five of last six. KC is 2-6-1 vs spread last nine games where they were favored in a home opener. Atlanta lost last five road openers, scoring average of 8.6 ppg; they even lost at Pittsburgh one year when Big Ben was suspended. Since ’88, they’re 0-4 as favorite in road openers. You're reading ***************.com. Seven of last eight road openers stayed under total; under is 16-2-1 in Chiefs’ last 19 home openers.

49ers @ Packers—Green Bay won five in row, 13 of last 14 games vs 49ers, with only loss in ’98 playoff game; SF lost last eight visits here, with five of eight by 10+ points. Pack won/covered last five home openers, by average score of 27-18. This will be 13th time in 16 years they’re at home in Week 1.. Niners *** four of last five road openers, covered six of last eight; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine tries as road dog in road opener. Since ’94, they’re 2-6 vs spread in Week 1 road games. Four of Pack’s last six home openers stayed under; under is 3-1-1 in 49ers’ last five road openers. Niners were +28 in turnovers in magical ’11 run; they made lot of own breaks, but you’re not +28 without few bounces going your way—will that continue?

Panthers @ Buccaneers— Curious to see how Newton does with full off-season program under his belt; teams didn’t have that last season, but he was still terrific as rookie, beating Bucs 38-19/48-16 in two meetings. Carolina lost last three road openers, allowing 28-31-28 points; they failed to cover last three as dog in road openers, after covering nine of first 10 (9-4 as dog overall in road openers). Tampa Bay lost five of last six season openers; since ’88, they’re 4-6 vs spread as dogs in home openers, 7-6-1 as favorite. Bucs are 4-6 in last ten home openers; over is 3-1-1 in last five, after 12 of previous 15 stayed under. Carolina’s last four road openers went over the total. Oddly, Carolina won seven of last nine visits here.

Seahawks @ Cardinals— Home side won four of last five series games; Seattle lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 6-3-13-11-3 points. Since ’00, Hawks are 4-8 in road openers, allowing 6-0-7-6 points in wins; they lost last five road openers (0-6 vs spread in last six) by average score of 29-14. Home team won their last five season openers. You're reading ***************.com, America's favorite website. Arizona has been better in home openers since they got the dome; winning five of last six home openers, but since ’88, are still just 3-10 vs spread as favorite in home openers, with five of last six going over total. Under is 19-5 in Arizona’s last 24 home openers, but 2-3 in last five.

Steelers @ Broncos— Denver KO’d Steelers from playoffs 29-23 with OT TD last January; now they’ve upgraded from Tebow to Manning at QB. Fox lost eight of his last nine home openers; before he got to Denver, Broncos had won 11 straight Mile High openers (8-3 vs spread). Manning won seven of last eight home openers, covering six of last 10 as favorite. Over is 3-1-1 in Denver’s last five home openers. Pittsburgh is just 4-8 in last 12 road openers, 4-3 in last seven, scoring average of just 10 ppg in last five, with four of those five staying under total- they scored 14 or less points in four of those five games. New OC Haley said to have installed more run-happy offense, which may explain why Big Ben didn’t get his shoulder fixed. Since ’88, they’re 4-5 in Week 1 openers on road. Steelers are 5-10-1 all-time in Denver, 3-4 vs Broncos in playoffs.

Monday
Bengals @ Ravens— Baltimore won last seven home openers (5-2 vs spread), with none of wins by less than seven points; since 1988, they’re 8-3 vs spread in Week 1 home games. Ravens covered four of last five home openers vs divisional opponent. Cincinnati is 4-3 in last seven road openers; they were dog in three of four wins, favored in two of three losses (underdogs covered five of their last six road openers). Since ’88, are 6-5 vs spread as Week 1 underdog. Four of Bengals’ last five road openers went over total; over is 5-1-1 in Ravens’ last seven home openers, but seven of last nine series games had totals of 37 or less. Ravens won both meetings LY, 31-24/24-16, but are still just 6-9 in last 15 series games, albeit 3-1 in last four played here.

Chargers @ Raiders—Allen is fourth head coach in five years for Oakland, but Palmer had full camp and should be better this year under center. Raiders won three of last four series games after losing 13 in row to Bolts before that. San Diego won seven of last eight visits here, with only loss 35-27 in ’10. Chargers lost four of last five road openers, allowing average of 30.6 ppg, giving up 35+ points in three of the four losses; they’re 4-9 vs spread last 13 times road opener was in Week 1. Over is 13-7-1 in San Diego’s last 21 road openers. Raiders lost last four times they opened season at home, with three losses by 15+ points- they’re 9-5 in last 14 home openers, winning last two after losing previous seven. Four of their last five home openers went over the total. Average total in last four series games is 52.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2012, 01:09 PM

Super trends return for Week 1

September 4, 2012

It's been seven seasons since a team has repeated as Super Bowl champions and that's the task at hand in 2012 for the New York Giants. On Wednesday, the club will kick off the season at home against the Dallas Cowboys.
Even though some clubs play poorly as the hunted rather than the hunted, the Super Bowl champs haven't fallen too quickly from the pedestal, especially in their Week 1 openers!

Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2011)
Year SB Winner Opponent Result
2011 Green Bay (-4.5) New Orleans 42-34 (Cover)
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) Minnesota 14-9 (Cover)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) Tennessee 13-10 (Non-Cover)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) Washington 16-7 (Cover)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 41-10 (Cover)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) Miami 28-17 (Cover)
2005 New England (-7.5) Oakland 30-20 (Cover)
2004 New England (-3) Indianapolis 27-24 (Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) Philadelphia 17-0 (Cover)
2002 New England (PK) Pittsburgh 30-14 (Cover)
2001 Baltimore (-10) Chicago 17-6 (Cover)
2000 St. Louis (-7) Denver 41-36 (Non-Cover)

Looking at the above table, bettors can see that the Super Bowl champion has won its opener the last 12 seasons, which might not come as a big surprise to you since they're usually at home and listed as a favorite as well. What might impress you is the champion's mark against the spread over this stretch, which stands at 9-2-1 (82%).

The last champion to lose its Week 1 opener the following season was Denver, which occurred in 1999. The Broncos defeated Atlanta 34-19 in Super Bowl XXXIII and were humbled 38-21 by Miami as 5 ½-point home favorites.

Will the G-Men keep the streak alive?

The Giants opened as three-point favorites over the Cowboys and the line has jumped to 3 ½ and even 4 at some major offshore outfits. If you're afraid to lay the points, you can take New York on the money-line, which is listed as high as minus-200 (Bet $100 to win $50).

New York swept the regular season series against Dallas last year and has won five of the last six encounters against their NFC East rival. Also, the Giants have gone 6-2 straight up in their eight home openers under head coach Tom Coughlin.

If you are looking to buck the trend and back the Cowboys, you could point to familiarity. Dallas has opened its regular season on the road in eight of the past 10 seasons. The Cowboys came up short in last year's opener to the Jets (24-27) in a game they easily could've won. Dallas led 24-10 in the fourth quarter but key turnovers and a late special teams touchdown sealed their fate. Despite the tough loss, the 'Boys did manage to cover as six-point road underdogs.

According to the latest betting trends at Sportsbook.ag, over 80% of the action for Wednesday's opener is on the Giants.

Another team that's receiving heavy public attention in Week 1 is New England. The Patriots are hoping to rebound in 2012 after losing to the aforementioned Giants in last year's Super Bowl.

New England is favored to win the AFC by the oddsmakers but success might not happen right away, especially if the Super Bowl loser trend continues in Week 1. The situation has been just as strong as the above angle that focuses on New York and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week but the entire season.

Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2011)
Year Loser Opponent Line Result
2011 Pittsburgh at Baltimore +1 Loss 7-35
2010 Indianapolis at Houston -2.5 Loss 24-34
2009 Arizona vs. San Francisco -6.5 Loss 16-20
2008 New England vs. Kansas City -16 Win 17-10 (Non-Cover)
2007 Chicago at San Diego +6 Loss 3-14
2006 Seattle at Detroit -6 Win 9-6 (Non-Cover)
2005 Philadelphia at Atlanta -1 Loss 10-14
2004 Carolina vs. Green Bay -3 Loss 14-24
2003 Oakland at Tennessee +3 Loss 20-25
2002 St. Louis at Denver -3 Loss 16-23
2001 N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco +3 Loss 13-16
2000 Tennessee at Buffalo PK Loss 13-16
1999 Atlanta at Minnesota +4 Loss 14-17 (Cover)

Gamblers have watched the loser of the last year's Super Bowl go 2-11 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in Week 1 over the past 13 seasons. New England will head to Tennessee on Sunday and the Patriots are listed as six-point road favorites at most betting shops. The Pats have gone 9-3 in Week 1 openers since Bill Belichick took over the coaching duties in New England. Last year, the club opened the season in South Florida and the team blasted Miami 38-24 as seven-point favorites in wire-to-wire fashion.

The last time the Titans faced the Patriots came in 2009 when they were embarrassed 59-0 in a blizzard at Foxboro. Even though the Titans aren't considered contenders, the team did go 9-7 at home last season and that included a 5-3 mark in Nashville.

And if you delve into the numbers further, two of the three losses at home were by 7 or less. We mention that number because the Patriots will most likely be laying 7 or more come this Sunday afternoon.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2012, 01:21 PM

Tech Trends - Week 1

September 5, 2012

Sunday, Sept. 9 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Indy at Chicago Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano debuts for Indy. Lovie "over" 11-3 last 14 at Soldier Field. "Over," based on Lovie home "totals" trends.

Philly at Cleveland Andy Reid only 4-6 as road chalk the past two years but is 14-9 vs. line overall away the past three seasons. Pat Shurmur just 2-6 vs. line at home with Brownies LY and Cleveland 2-10 vs points last 12 as host since mid 2010. Browns also "under" 14-6-1 last 21 since late 2010, and Birds "under" 5-3 away LY. Eagles and "under", based on team and "totals" trends.

Buffalo at New York Bills have lost last five SU vs. Jets and are just 1-4 vs. number in those games. Chan Gailey closed 2011 on 2-7 spread run and Bills just 2-6-1 against spread their last nine on road. Jets "over" 28-12 last 40 since late 2009. "Over" and slight to Jets, based on "totals" and series trends.

Washington at New Orleans Saints were 13-5 vs. number LY and a spotless 9-0 against spread as home chalk. Shanahan "under" 12-3 last 15 away, but Saints were 6-3 "over" at home LY. Saints, based on team trends.

New England at Tenn Belichick "over" 28-10 last 38 since late in 2009 season, though Titans "under" 10-6 for Munchak LY. Belichick also 10-3 vs. spread last 13 as visitor. "Over" and slight to Patriots, based on "totals" and team trends.

Jacksonville at Minnesota Mularkey Jags debut. Vikes only 3-8-1 vs. line last 12 as host and 9-17-1 against number last 27 on board overall. Vikes also "over" 8-2 last 10 as host. Jags only 4-9 as dog LY and were "under" 5-11 in 2011 as well. slight to Jags, based on extended Vike spread woes.

Miami at Houston Looks bad for Miami after winless and cover-less preseason. Dolphins were 8-1-1 vs. line last 10 in 2011 but now Philbin debuts as HC. Kubiak 13-5 vs. line as year ago (10-2 last 12) and now 8-2 last 10 on board at Reliant Stadium. Texans, based on recent Kubiak win trends.

St. Louis at Detroit Lions faded late last year, just 3-9 their last 12 on the board after 17-3-1 stretch vs. spread previously. Lions are 8-4-2 as chalk since 2010, however. Fisher Rams debut, nowhere to go but up for St. Louis after 2-14 SU and 3-13 spread marks LY. Lions also "over" 23-12-2 last 37 since late in 2009 campaign. "Over", based on extended Lions "totals" trends.

Atlanta at Kansas City Falcs "under' 6-3 on road LY, Chiefs "under" 12-4 in 2011 and "under" 17-5 last 22 since late 2010. Chiefs also 6-0 as home dog the past two years. "Under" and Chiefs, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Sept. 9 - All games to start at 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

San Fran at Green Bay Harbaugh failed to cover his last four on the road LY but overall was 12-5-1 vs. line in 2011. SF 4-1-1 as dog LY. Pack 11-3 vs. line last 14 at Lambeau and is "over" 14-6 last 20 overall. "Over" and slight to Pack, based on 'totals" and team trends.

Carolina at Tampa Bay Schiano TB debut. Cam won and covered both vs. Bucs LY, both of those "over" as well. Cam "over" 10-5-1 LY, Bucs "over" 10-6 in 2011. Bucs lost last 10 SU last year and were 1-9 vs. line in those games. "Over" and slight to Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Seattle at Arizona Doesn't mean much, but note Seattle 4-0 SU and vs. line in preseason while Cards 0-5 vs. points in exhibition play. Pete Carroll "over" 22-11-1 the past two seasons and is 3-1 SU and vs. spread against Whisenhunt that span. Cards "over" 7-2-1 last 10 in desert. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Sept. 9 - NBC, 8:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pittsburgh at Denver Peyton Manning Denver debut, also quick rematch from LY's Tebow-flavored playoff thriller won by Denver in OT, 29-23. Broncos "over" 27-12 last 39 since late 2009, Steel "over' 5-4-1 last 10 away from Heinz Field. Steel just 2-8 vs. points last 10 away from home, and Tomlin just 1-5 last 6 as dog since early 2010. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and recent Tomlin road trends.

Monday, Sept. 10 - ESPN, 7:00 & 10:15 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Cinny at Baltimore Marvin Lewis 18-9-1 as dog since late in 2008 season. Bengals also 4-1-1 vs. line last six in series although Ravens won both meetings SU last season. "Unders" 6-3 last nine in series, although Cincy "over" 10-6-1 LY. Bengals, based series and Lewis dog trends.

San Diego at Oakland Dennis Allen Oakland debut. Raiders have covered five of last six in series although Bolts at one time had a seven-game win and cover streak at Coliseum between 2002-08 in what for many years was a road-oriented rivalry. Norv 4-7 as road chalk last two years. Raiders, based on recent series and Norv trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2012, 01:24 PM

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

If the Week 2 college football schedule wasn’t already littered enough with puzzling pointspreads, football fans get their first taste of NFL action and a few more head scratchers.

Each week, we take a quick glance at the football odds making bettors go “hmmmm…”, whether it be the opening lines, early action or mid-week adjustments:

NCAAF

UCF Knights at Ohio State Buckeyes (-17.5, 50.5)

This Week 2 matchup pits two programs under NCAA lock and key. Both UCF and OSU are suffering through bowl bans for underhanded dealings but, despite the lack of a postseason prize, it would appear that keeping up appearances is more important to the Buckeyes and new head coach Urban Meyer.

This spread opened as low as -17 OSU online and is sitting as high as -18 at the LVH in Las Vegas. The Knights are a quality C-USA squad, but last week’s one-sided win over Akron was more the Zips’ fault than anything – three fumbles, two inside their own 10-yard line.

Duke Blue Devils at Stanford Cardinal (-14, 58.5)

This battle of brains may be the Super Bowl of the debate team calendar but the ACC-vs. Pac-12 football contest is the “Late Night Degenerate Special” in Week 2, with a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Cardinal escaped with a “W” and little else versus San Jose State last Friday, but is still an elite program and will tighten the bolts following the Week 1 scare.

The Blue Devils were impressive – for Duke standards – in a blowout win over FIU. However, they did allow Golden Panthers RB Kedrick Rhodes to rumble for 130 yards and a score and now face Stanford RB Stepfan Taylor. Duke was second last in rushing defense in the ACC last year, giving up 180.67 yards per game on the ground.

NFL

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 45)

The Niners were the sexy offseason pick to win the Super Bowl this summer, marching all the way to the top of the futures board at some Las Vegas books. So why would San Francisco be a 5.5-point pup in Green Bay for Week 1?

Sure, the Packers are still the Packers and Lambeau is Lambeau. But, in a battle of Super Bowl faves, wouldn’t you expect a tighter spread than touchdown books were giving the 49ers when this game opened back in the spring? This line has come down from that opening but still seems a little hefty, which is why some markets are dealing Green Bay -5 at plus money.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-1, 44.5)

Depending on where you wager, this spread has been up and down more than Prince Harry’s pants during a Vegas bender. At certain Nevada books, the line moved all the way to Steelers -1 before going back to Denver -2.5. Some online books have it tagged as a pick’em.

Pittsburgh is missing some key cogs on defense and despite this being a “revenge” game following last year’s postseason shocker, the Broncos are very much a different team with Peyton Manning calling the shots at the line. Denver has moved up the futures board in a hurry this offseason but it appears that respect isn’t translating to Week 1’s odds.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2012, 08:03 PM

Wednesday, September 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 8:30 PM ET N.Y. Giants -4 500

N.Y. Giants - Over 45 500

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 08:29 PM

Luck, Indianapolis Colts Open Season At Chicago Bears

The Andrew Luck era gets underway for real on Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts visit the Chicago Bears in the Windy City.

The Don Best NFL odds screen has the Colts as 9½-point ‘dogs with a total of 43½. The latter is up a couple of points after opening at 41. This game from Soldier Field is part of the CBS local coverage at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

This is also a rematch of Super Bowl XLI in February 2007, won by Indianapolis (29-17). That was with Peyton Manning at quarterback, but the Colts decided to part ways after he missed all of last season (neck) and they were able to tank enough (2-14 straight up) to get Luck.

The Stanford product has made the quarterback change almost seamless. He has all the physical tools, including incredible poise and pocket awareness that far exceeds a normal 22-year-old.

Luck will have some offensive weapons in rookie tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. The former was his college teammate. Veteran receivers Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie also returned, with Wayne a surprise as a free agent. Collie can’t really be counted on with his concussion history.

Donald Brown (645 yards last year) is the featured back, but he’s nothing to get too excited about. That means more early pressure on Luck.

New head coach Chuck Pagano is the former defensive coordinator with Baltimore. He’s switched the ‘D’ over to the 3-4 that was so successful with the Ravens. The problem is that a lot of Indy’s best personnel are suited to the 4-3, like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis who are now converted outside linebackers.

Both Freeney and Mathis could struggle early on in their new roles, with Mathis (shoulder) also questionable this week.

The Colts made an aggressive move by acquiring cornerback Vontae Davis from Miami for a second round pick. He’ll start next to Jerraud Powers in a good duo on paper, and the safeties aren’t bad either with Antoine Bethea and Tom Zbikowski.

However, going against this newly constructed Bears offense at home is a huge challenge.

Chicago started out last season at 7-3 SU, but limped down the stretch (1-5 SU) after quarterback Jay Cutler missed the final six games with a thumb injury. The backup combination of Caleb Hanie and Josh McCown simply couldn’t get it done, with Jason Campbell in that role this year.

Cutler is healthy now and looking forward to playing at home on Sunday. Chicago was 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in his home games last year, with the offense extremely potent at 31.3 PPG. The ‘over’ was 5-1 in those contests.

The 29-year-old Cutler is excited to be reunited with former Broncos teammate Brandon Marshall. He combines with rookie Alshon Jeffery to form a very solid 1-2 receiver punch. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice is known for running the ball and adding Michael Bush from Oakland to incumbent Matt Forte is another plus.

The Bears question marks come along the offensive line and having several key defensive players on the wrong side of 30.

Brian Urlacher (age 34) is one of those and he’s not on the injury report despite missing the whole preseason with a knee ailment.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 08:31 PM

Saints Host Redskins In Intriguing Week 1 Matchup

Drew Brees and the Saints look to put bounty-gate behind in their season opener.

The New Orleans Saints try to put one of the most tumultuous offseasons in NFL history behind them when they host the Washington Redskins on Sunday afternoon.

Kickoff will come at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as part of the FOX regional coverage. This is also the debut of Washington rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III.

There has been major line movement for this game on the Don Best Pro Odds screen. New Orleans opened as 9½-point favorites, but is now down to seven at most shops. The total has remained steady and sits at 50-50½ points.

New Orleans went 9-0 SU and ATS at home last year. The ‘over’ went 4-1 in the last five of those contests.

The Saints players, fans and management are still trying to wrap their minds around the bounty scandal that cost them coach Sean Payton and linebacker Jonathan Vilma for the year. Assistant head coach Joe Vitt coached through the final preseason game, but is now suspended for the first six of the regular season.

Aaron Kromer takes over as interim coach even though he has never been a head coach at the college or NFL level. The 45-year-old will rely heavily on offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, but concerns on how they will function together is a big reason for the spread move.

New Orleans’ quarterback Drew Brees has always been under the gun, but even more so this season. He led the league’s top ranked offense in total yards (467.1 YPG) and most of the key pieces are back except receiver Robert Meachem and offensive guard Carl Nicks.

The defense struggled last year (368.4 YPG, ranked 24th) and lost cornerback Tracy Porter and linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar. Defensive end Will Smith is another bounty casualty for the first four games, although there is a small chance his suspension will be lifted in time for this game.

Injuries are also a concern for Spagnuolo in his first year with the team. Starting linebackers Curtis Lofton (ankle) and David Hawthorne (knee) are both questionable, in addition to cornerback Jabari Greer (groin). Lofton was signed from Atlanta to replace Vilma and should play.

Washington begins its third season under Mike Shanahan. The two-time Super Bowl champion coach with Denver is just 11-21 SU (15-15-2 ATS) with the Redskins. Shanahan did bring new hope to the franchise with the expensive draft trade-up to get Griffin, but the pressure is on to deliver wins fast.

Griffin had a solid preseason, 20-of-31 for 193 yards, two TDs and no picks. His athletic ability is unquestioned, but reading defenses in a regular season game is hard for any rookie and the Saints defense does fly to the ball much faster playing in the dome.

The just 22-year-old Griffin doesn’t have a great receiving core with Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan and Leonard Hankerson on the outside and the fading Santana Moss in the slot. The running back situation is unsettled right now with Evan Royster and Roy Helu Jr. in the mix.

Shanahan needs to get a good year out of the defense after ranking 13th overall last season (339.8 YPG). The secondary is the biggest concern with safety Tanard Jackson suspended for the year and Brandon Meriweather out 2-4 games. Cornerback Josh Wilson (abdominal) is also questionable.

Going against Brees and the Saints passing offense is tough enough at full strength, so this is the key matchup of the game.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 08:33 PM

Manning Begins Broncos Career Against Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger passed for over 4,000 yards during th 2011 season.

Quarterback Peyton Manning gets a tough first test in a Denver Broncos uniform in hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football.

Denver is getting a lot of respect on the Don Best NFL odds screen as 1½-point favorites, although it is down slightly from the -2 opening. The total is 44½. This is not surprisingly the prime-time game at 8:20 p.m. (ET) as NBC knows the ratings will be extra big for Manning’s debut.

These teams met in the playoffs last year with Denver getting a shocking 29-23 OT home win as 7½-point ‘dogs. Tim Tebow threw probably the most important pass he’ll ever make in his career, an 80-yard hookup with Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime.

That game was only eight months ago, but might as well be a lifetime. Tebow was jettisoned to the Jets as soon as the Broncos won the Manning sweepstakes. Manning will be making his first real pass since January 2011 after sitting out last year with a neck injury.

The now 36-year-old signal caller has looked good in preseason, but has diminished arm strength and reportedly is struggling throwing to his right. Coach John Fox will likely keep his throws down the first few games and feature the league’s top-ranked rushing attack from last year (164.5 YPG). Willis McGahee will be the featured back after almost reaching 1,200 yards.

When Manning does throw, he has a solid tandem in Thomas and Eric Decker. Manning always loved using Dallas Clark and other tight ends while with Indy, and Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme (former Manning teammate) will fill that role.

Fox is considered a very good defensive mind and he did get the ‘D’ to stiffen up in the second half last year. There is a new coordinator in Jack Del Rio after Dennis Allen left for Oakland, but the continuity should be fine. However, there are big questions at defensive tackle and linebacker D.J Williams is also suspended the first six games.

Pittsburgh is one of the most stable franchises in the NFL, but this offseason has seen some turmoil. The fiery Todd Haley has replaced Bruce Arians as offensive coordinator and it remains to be seen if Haley can get along with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

The 30-year-old Roethlisberger threw for over 4,000 yards last year and is extremely feared for his ability to scramble and make plays down the field. However, explosive receiver Mike Wallace is still learning the new offense after a contract holdout and could struggle as a starter on Sunday.

The running game is also a question with Rashard Mendenhall likely out after recovering from knee surgery. Isaac Redman (ankle) should play despite being banged up, while Jonathan Dwyer will also get some carries. The offensive line has been shaky in recent years and there was another big blow with rookie guard David DeCastro (knee) possibly injured for the year.

The Steelers defense ranked first last year (271.8 YPG) under legendary coordinator Dick LeBeau. There are injury concerns with outside linebacker James Harrison and his backup Jason Worilds questionable and probable respectively with knee injuries.

Safety Ryan Clark is being held out with his sickle cell trait dangerous in the thin Denver air. Inside linebacker Larry Foote (ankle) is listed as questionable, but will probably play.

LeBeau has his work cut out for him this week, but he’s used to mixing and matching players. He will certainly put the pressure on Manning to see how his body responds to the layoff.

Pittsburgh looks like a dangerous ‘dog in this contest.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 08:35 PM

September Records

September 5, 2012

When getting a gauge on the first month of the NFL season, there are several factors to consider. How long has each head coach been patrolling the sidelines? Do these clubs employ the same starting quarterback? Some of those questions can be answered when comparing teams and how they fare in the month of September.

Dating back to 2008, eleven squads have won at least eight games in September, while the Ravens and Giants each own 9-3 straight-up records. Baltimore and New Orleans each possess the highest success rate against the spread in this period as the Ravens are 9-3 ATS, while the Saints have compiled a solid 9-4 ATS mark. These teams are consistent at the quarterback position and have not had any significant coaching changes, but that will change in New Orleans this season with Sean Payton being suspended the entire season.

The worst teams in this time frame are not a surprise, as the Browns, Dolphins, and Rams are the least effective clubs in September. Cleveland managed two wins in three September contests last season (including one over Miami), but the Browns are just 4-8-1 ATS in the opening month since 2008. Miami put together a winless September in 2011, while posting a 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS record the last four Septembers. Taking the prize for biggest September dud is St. Louis, who has won a grand total of one game in the last 13 opening month contests, while cashing just three times in this span.

Below is a list of each team with their September (SU/ATS) records from last season, 2008-2010, and their schedule for the month.

2012 SEPTEMBER BREAKDOWN
Category 2011 2008-10 Week
TEAM SU ATS SU ATS 1 2 3 4
ARZ 1-2 2-1 5-5 5-5 SEA @ NE PHI MIA
ATL 1-2 1-2 6-4 6-4 @ KC DEN @ SD CAR
BAL 2-1 2-1 7-2 7-2 CIN @ PHI NE CLE
BUF 3-0 2-1 5-5 5-5 @ NYJ KC @ CLE NE
CAR 1-2 2-1 3-7 2-7-1 @ TB NO NYG @ ATL
CHI 1-2 1-2 6-4 5-4-1 IND @ GB STL @ DAL *
CIN 1-2 2-1 4-6 5-4-1 @ BAL CLE @ WSH @ JAX
CLE 2-1 1-1-1 1-9 3-7 PHI @ CIN BUF @ BAL
DAL 2-1 1-1-1 6-4 5-5 @ NYG @ SEA TB CHI *
DEN 1-2 1-2 7-3 5-4-1 PIT @ ATL HOU OAK
DET 3-0 2-0-1 1-8 3-6 STL @ SF @ TEN MIN
GB 3-0 2-1 6-4 6-4 SF CHI @ SEA NO
HOU 2-1 2-1 3-6 4-5 MIA @ JAX @ DEN TEN
IND 0-3 2-1 6-3 5-4 @ CHI MIN JAX --
JAX 1-2 1-2 4-6 4-6 @ MIN HOU @ IND CIN
KC 0-3 1-2 4-6 5-5 ATL @ BUF @ NO SD
MIA 0-3 0-2-1 3-6 3-6 @ HOU OAK NYJ @ ARZ
MIN 0-3 1-1-1 5-5 4-6 JAX @ IND SF @ DET
NE 2-1 2-1 6-3 3-6 @ TEN ARZ @ BAL @ BUF
NO 2-1 2-1 7-3 7-3 WSH @ CAR KC @ GB
NYG 2-1 2-1 7-2 5-3-1 DAL TB @ CAR @ PHI
NYJ 2-1 1-2 7-3 7-3 BUF @ PIT @ MIA SF
OAK 2-1 3-0 3-7 5-5 SD @ MIA PIT @ DEN
PHI 1-2 1-2 6-4 6-4 @ CLE BAL @ ARZ NYG
PIT 2-1 1-2 7-3 4-6 @ DEN NYJ @ OAK --
SD 2-1 0-3 5-5 4-5-1 @ OAK TEN ATL @ KC
SF 2-1 2-0-1 4-6 6-4 @ GB DET @ MIN @ NYJ
SEA 1-2 1-2 4-5 4-5 @ ARZ DAL GB @ STL
STL 0-3 0-3 1-9 3-7 @ DET WSH @ CHI SEA
TB 2-1 2-1 5-5 5-5 CAR @ NYG @ DAL WSH
TEN 2-1 1-2 6-4 7-3 NE @ SD DET @ HOU
WSH 2-1 2-1 5-5 4-5-1 @ NO @ STL CIN @ TB
* Game played on Monday, Oct. 1

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 08:37 PM

NFL Week 1 Preview: Titans vs. Patriots

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (0-0)

at TENNESSEE TITANS (0-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6, Total: 47

The Titans seek long-awaited payback when they host the Patriots on Sunday, the same team that beat them 59-0 in their last meeting in 2009.

New England led 45-0 at halftime that game, and that was before the addition of its star tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots offense gets richer this year with deep threat WR Brandon Lloyd, Tom Brady’s best outside weapon since Randy Moss’ prime. Lloyd joins Gronkowski, Hernandez and dominant slot WR Wes Welker on an offense that threw for 313 yards per game in 2011. The Pats’ makeshift offensive line is dealing with some injuries, but their young defense is a year older and wiser and should be somewhat improved. The Titans need RB Chris Johnson to find his old form, as second-year QB Jake Locker is a flawed passer right now. Their defense will have its hands full against Brady and Company, especially with a toothless pass rush (28 sacks last year) and a secondary that lost both CB Cortland Finnegan and S Chris Hope to free agency.

Can the Patriots start their 2012 season with a big road win? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Brady has led his team to eight straight season-opening wins, which ties the fifth-longest such run in NFL history. In last year’s Week 1 victory over Miami, Brady threw for a Patriots record 517 yards in a 38-24 victory. Brady threw for 380 yards and six touchdowns in the 59-0 blowout over Tennessee three years ago. While the passing game gets all the recognition, New England is also a decent running team when it wants to be. The Patriots averaged 110 rushing yards on 4.0 YPC in 2011, and that should improve this year with Stevan Ridley’s emergence within this offense. Ridley is coming off a strong preseason where he rushed for 152 yards on 34 carries (4.5 YPC), establishing himself as the featured back in this offense. The much-maligned defense allowed 402 total YPG last season, but the addition of rookies DE Chandler Jones and LB Donta’ Hightower helps shore up what could be a very good front seven that could take pressure off the secondary.

Locker won the starting job over Matt Hasselbeck in the preseason, but he didn’t throw all that effectively, completing just 31-of-60 of his passes for 316 yards (5.3 YPA), 2 TD and 1 INT. Locker will be making his first career start on Sunday, but he did see significant action in 2011, completing 34-of-66 passes for 542 yards (8.2 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT. For the Titans to hang around in this game, Chris Johnson will have to regain his 2,000-yard form from a couple years ago. Johnson posted a career-low 1,047 rushing yards (4.0 YPC) in 2011, but he did rumble for 128 yards in the blowout loss to New England back in 2009. WR Kenny Britt will not play on Sunday, as he’ll be serving his one-game suspension, which allows rookie Kendall Wright to start opposite veteran Nate Washington in this passing offense.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 08:39 PM

NFL Week 1 Preview: Redskins vs. Saints

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (0-0)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (0-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -7, Total: 50

The Redskins usher in the RG3 era with dual threat rookie Robert Griffin III looking to spark a listless offense on the road in New Orleans.

Griffin III will have his hands full against an aggressive Saints defense. The ‘Skins are also still looking for answers on the offensive line and the secondary. Though Saints head coach Sean Payton is suspended for the season, they should be fine on offense with Drew Brees running the show. New Orleans added numerous new LBs over the offseason, but new starters Curtis Lofton (ankle) and David Hawthorne (knee) are working their way back from preseason injuries. The Saints run defense is once again a question mark, but the Redskins rushing offense is also weak.

Can Griffin III lead the Redskins to the upset on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Griffin III had a strong preseason, completing 20-of-31 passes for 193 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. He also ran for 22 yards on five carries. His receiving corps got an upgrade over the summer with the signing of Pierre Garcon and the healthy return of Leonard Hankerson. The passing game shouldn’t be an issue, but the running game has plenty of question marks with a makeshift offensive line and RB carousel of Roy Helu, Evan Royster and Alfred Morris. The good news is that whoever Mike Shanahan decides on, or if he uses a committee approach, all three players are coming off strong preseason performances. Helu rushed for 107 yards on 19 carries (5.6 YPC) and 2 TD, Royster also carried the ball 19 times, gaining 85 yards and 1 TD, while the rookie Morris received the most action, rumbling for 195 yards on 39 carries (5.0 YPC). Although S Tanard Jackson is suspended for this game, the injury prognosis is looking good for Royster (knee), LB Brian Orakpo (shoulder) and S Brandon Meriweather (knee), who have all been upgraded to probable.

Brees is coming off an NFL record 5,476-yard season, where he completed an NFL record 71.2% of his passes. Although New Orleans parted ways with WR Robert Meachem, the top three receivers all return in TE Jimmy Graham, WR Marques Colston and RB Darren Sproles, who each caught 80 passes in 2011. New Orleans will also continue to share the rushing workload between Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram, who is healthy after an injury-riddled rookie campaign. Speaking of injuries, Colston (foot) will start, but CB Jabari Greer (groin) is questionable. LB Jonathan Vilma was suspended for the season for his role in past bounties, and top DE Will Smith will be serving a four-game suspension for the same pay-to-injure scandal.

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The bum's 2012 nfl sept. Best bets !

The bum's 2012 nfl sept. Best bets !

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