The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - First Round

April 22, 2011

First Round Results

Favorites are 16-3 straight up
Underdogs are 13-6 against the spread
The 'under' stands at 11-8
Home teams are 14-5 straight up



Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr. 16
Indiana Chicago (-12.5) 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Philadelphia Miami (-10.5) 97-89 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Atlanta (+9) Orlando 103-93 UNDERDOG OVER 181
Portland Dallas (-5) 89-81 FAVORITE UNDER 186

Sunday, Apr. 17
Memphis (+6.5) San Antonio 101-98 UNDERDOG OVER 195.5
New Orleans (+11) L.A. Lakers 109-100 UNDERDOG OVER 184.5
New York Boston (-6) 87-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 197.5
Denver Oklahoma City (-6) 107-103 UNDERDOG OVER 206

Monday, Apr. 18
Philadelphia Miami (-9) 94-73 FAVORITE UNDER 190
Indiana Chicago (-11) 96-90 UNDERDOG UNDER 192

Tuesday, Apr. 19
New York Boston (-6.5) 96-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 192.5
Atlanta Orlando (-9.5) 88-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 182.5
Portland Dallas (-4) 101-89 FAVORITE OVER 184.5

Wednesday, Apr. 20
Denver Oklahoma City (-4.5) 106-89 FAVORITE UNDER 206.5
Memphis San Antonio (-8) 93-87 UNDERDOG UNDER 193.5
New Orleans L.A. Lakers (-11.5) 87-79 UNDERDOG UNDER 185.5

Thursday, Apr. 21
Chicago (-3.5) Indiana 88-84 FAVORITE UNDER 189.5
Miami (-4.5) Philadelphia 100-94 FAVORITE OVER 185
Dallas Portland (-5.5) 97-92 UNDERDOG OVER 187.5

Friday, Apr. 22
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Saturday, Apr. 23
Chicago Indiana
Dallas Portland
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Sunday, Apr. 24
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Monday, Apr. 25
San Antonio Memphis
Portland Dallas
Oklahoma City Denver

Tuesday, Apr. 26
Indiana Chicago
New York Boston
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, Apr. 27
Philadelphia Miami
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City

Thursday, Apr. 28
Chicago Indiana
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 29
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Saturday, Apr. 30
Indiana Chicago
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers
Portland Dallas

Sunday, May 1
Philadelphia Miami
New York Boston
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

04/21/11 4-*1-*1 80.00% +*1450 Detail
04/20/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/19/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/18/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
04/17/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% -*200 Detail
04/16/11 2-*6-*0 25.00% -*2300 Detail

Totals 18-*19-*1 48.65% -*1450


Friday, April 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET New York -3.5 500
New York - Over 190.5 500

Orlando - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta +1.5 500 ( POD )
Atlanta - Over 180.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 9:30 PM ET New Orleans +5.5 500
New Orleans - Under 183 500 ( POD TOTAL )

[StarDust Bum]

Knicks try for long-awaited home playoff win


BOSTON CELTICS

at NEW YORK KNICKS


Eastern Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 3 – Boston leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -3.5, Total: 191

Madison Square Garden will host its first NBA playoff game in nearly seven years when the Knicks try to beat the Celtics in Game 3 of their First Round series. New York hasn’t hosted a postseason game since April 25, 2004, and hasn’t won a home playoff game since defeating Toronto exactly 10 years ago on April 22, 2001. The Knicks might not be at full strength trying to break this decade-long drought, as both Amar’e Stoudemire (back) and Chauncey Billups (knee) are game-time decisions.

Boston leads the series 2-0, but it certainly hasn’t dominated the Knicks with its two wins coming by two points and three points. After the Celtics posted a huge 57-44 rebounding advantage in Game 1, New York outrebounded Boston 65-47 in Game 2. Paul Pierce (41% FG) and Kevin Garnett (37% FG) have not shot well this series, but Ray Allen (65% FG, 78% 3-pt FG) and Rajon Rondo (49% FG) have picked up the slack. The Celtics are also playing solid defense, holding the Knicks to 39% FG and 33% on three-pointers. But the Celtics have had their share of heroics at MSG over the years. Garnett hit an overtime buzzer-beater to give Boston a 107-105 win in November of 2009 and Pierce hit a game-winner with 0.4 seconds left in a 118-116 victory this past December.

Stoudemire was the star in Game 1 with 28 points and 11 boards beore hurting his back in Game 2 warmups and only playing 18 minutes. He missed the second half of Tuesday’s Game 2 loss and was unable to practice on Thursday, but he is still expected to play on Friday night. Billups’ playing status is more uncertain after straining his left knee in Game 1 and missing Game 2. The key to the Knicks’ success continues to be Carmelo Anthony. After a foul-plagued 15 points (1-11 FG in second half) and four rebounds in Game 1, Anthony carried the Knicks in Game 2 with 42 points, 17 rebounds and six assists.

The Celtics were not a great road team during the regular season (23-18 SU, 18-23 ATS), but the Knicks were nothing special at home either (23-18 SU, 20-20-1 ATS). However, Boston has owned this series recently, going 12-2 SU including a perfect 6-0 SU this season (regular season and playoffs). The Celtics are also 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) in their past 12 trips to MSG. With the Knicks not at full strength, I expect Boston to play its best game of the series and continue its perfect record versus New York this season. This four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Celtics.

Doc Rivers is 20-3 ATS (87.0%, +16.7 Units) in road games vs. excellent free-throw shooting teams - making >=80% of their shots as the coach of BOSTON. The average score was BOSTON 100.7, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Denver Nuggets, Thunder Game 3

Slowing Kevin Durant and speeding up their offense is the Nuggets’ game plan.
Can Oklahoma City defeat Denver for a fifth straight time during a span of 19 days?

The Thunder can achieve this feat if they upset the Nuggets Saturday night at 7 (PT) at Denver's Pepsi Center.

Oddsmakers don’t see it happening making the desperate Nuggets a 5 ½-point home favorite. The ‘over/under’ is 205.

Denver led the NBA in scoring at 107.5 points per game during the regular season and ranked third overall in field goal percentage at 47.6. But in falling behind 2-0 in their best-of-seven first-round Western Conference playoff series against Oklahoma City, the Nuggets have averaged 96 points and shot 45 percent from the field.

Those two games were in Oklahoma City, though. Now the Nuggets are home where they won 33 of 41 games going 21-17-3 against the spread.

It’s obvious, however, that the Nuggets are having trouble matching up to the Thunder, a budding power seeking their first playoff series win since relocating from Seattle. Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road contests.

The Thunder defeated Denver, 101-94, as 4 ½-point road ‘dogs on April 5 and then trounced the Nuggets, 104-89, as 4 ½-point home favorites on April 8. Both games went ‘under’ the total.

Center Kendrick Perkins, formerly of Boston, has provided the Thunder with a solid defensive presence and a shot-blocker to go along with defensive-minded Serge Ibaka.

The Nuggets have had two major problems against the Thunder – getting their offense going and trying to slow down Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

Denver was one of the hottest teams after February winning 19 of their last 24 regular-season games while going 12-7-1 ATS during their past 20 regular-season matchups.

The Nuggets were able to achieve this because of a major trade with the New York Knicks, which improved their depth and chemistry. They lost superstar Carmelo Anthony, but still finished as the No. 1 scoring team in the league while becoming a more unselfish team.

But the Thunder have exposed the Nuggets’ lack of a go-to-guy now that Anthony and Chauncey Billups are gone. Oklahoma City has controlled tempo by slowing things down forcing the Nuggets to operate more half-court offensive sets than they would like.

Going back to the past four head-to-head meetings – played during a span of 16 days – the Thunder have held the Nuggets to an average of 93.7 points and forced an average of 13 turnovers per game.

Durant and Westbrook combined for 72 points in the Thunder’s 107-103 Game 1 win. The Nuggets nearly won that game losing in large part on a controversial tip-in by Perkins that probably should have been ruled offensive goaltending.

The Nuggets were six-point underdogs in that game with the combined 210 points going ‘over’ the 204 ½-point total.

Durant and Westbrook combined for 44 points this past Wednesday in the Thunder’s 106-89 win as 4 ½-point favorites. Point guard Ty Lawson led Denver with 20 points. The closest the Nuggets could pull to was 10 points in the fourth quarter.

The combined 195 points went ‘under’ the 206-point total. It was the sixth time in eight matchups that Oklahoma City has gone ‘under’ when facing a playoff opponent. This has all occurred since Perkins became the starting center.

Durant, the two-time defending league scoring champ, is averaging 32 points in the series. He’s shooting 54 percent from the floor and has made 18 of 22 free throws for 81 percent.

The ‘under’ has cashed 14 of the last 20 times Oklahoma City has been a road ‘dog. The ‘under’ also has cashed four of the past five times the two teams have met.

Game 4 is set for Monday at 7:30 p.m. PT with Denver hosting. If the Nuggets are to pull out this series, they must win four of five games during an eight-day span.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Upstart Memphis Grizzlies host Spurs

The Spurs hope to avoid the blues the next two games in Memphis.
The eighth seeded Memphis Grizzlies continue their march towards history as they host the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night. This best-of-seven series is tied at 1-1 as it moves to Memphis.

The Don Best odds screen has the Grizzlies as two-point favorites in their first home playoff game since 2006. The total is 192 points and ESPN will broadcast from FedExForum at 4:30 p.m. (PT).

An NBA eighth seed has only eliminated a No. 1 three times in history. The latest was the 2006-07 Golden State Warriors, which beat the Dallas Mavericks in six games despite losing 25 more contests during the regular season.

The Grizzles finished 46-36 straight-up this regular season, 15 games behind San Antonio (61-21 SU). The Spurs were also 36-5 SU at home, but that didn’t stop Memphis from a 101-98 opening road win last Sunday as 6 ½-point underdogs.

San Antonio was playing without Manu Ginobili, who sprained his right elbow in the regular season finale. Memphis’ big man tandem of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol combined for 49 points and 23 rebounds, with the team shooting 55.2 percent from the floor. It was the first playoff win for the expansion franchise, debuting in Vancouver in 1995.

Ginobili did play in Game 2 on Wednesday, scoring a team-high 17 points despite wearing a bulky brace. Memphis shot a much more pedestrian 39.8 percent from the field, but only trailed by two points (89-87) after a Sam Young three-pointer with 14 seconds left. Memphis lost 93-87, but ‘covered’ for the second straight game as eight-point ‘dogs.

The 180-points scored went ‘under’ the 194 ½-point total. Game 1’s 199 points went ‘over’ the 196 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 21-8 in San Antonio’s last 29 games overall.

The Grizzlies were 30-11 SU and 26-14-1 ATS at home during the regular season. That includes 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS to end the season. They’re the NBA’s best ATS team overall (54-29-1).

Memphis has done a great job shaking off the injury to second-leading scorer Rudy Gay (19.8 PPG). He was lost for the year in February with a dislocated shoulder. Young and Tony Allen are now starting at the wing positions, with Mike Conley running things from the point.

Coach Lionel Hollins has built a solid bench with the help of GM Chris Wallace. The gritty Shane Battier was a great addition at the trade deadline. O.J. Mayo is a key player after almost being traded and Darrell Arthur is a decent big man option.

The Spurs (44-38-2 ATS) haven’t had anything come easy for them lately. They had a six-game losing streak beginning in late March with Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker all missing at least one game. They did hold onto the No. 1 seed in the West, but finished behind Chicago for home court advantage throughout the playoffs.

Coach Gregg Popovich deserves a lot of Coach of the Year consideration. His nucleus was considered too old for a title, but he used a very deep bench to score 103.7 PPG (sixth in the NBA). Three-point shooting was a big factor (39.7 percent made, ranked first).

The problem in the playoffs is rotations tighten and superior depth is not that much of an advantage. Duncan also no longer dominates fourth quarters like in his youth and Ginobili needs to be healthy to help fill that role.

San Antonio was 25-16 SU and 25-15-1 ATS on the road this year, but struggled down the stretch at 1-6 SU (3-4 ATS).

The two days off should theoretically help the Spurs aging players, but they’re just 5-12 ATS on two days rest this season. Their inside guys will need their energy as Memphis leads the league in points in the paint and won’t settle for jumpers at home.

Game 4 will be played Monday in Memphis with San Antonito really in a bind with a Saturday defeat.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday Early Playoff Tips

April 22, 2011


The Saturday NBA playoff card is loaded with four games as just one team looks to advance to the second round. The Bulls tip off the action going for the sweep of the feisty Pacers, while the Blazers look to even things up with the Mavs at the Rose Garden. We'll start in the Hoosier State with Indiana attempting to stretch out its series with Chicago to a fifth game.

Bulls at Pacers - 2:35 PM EST

The top seed in the Eastern Conference looks to become the first team to move towards the second round of the playoffs as Chicago battles Indiana. The Bulls haven't won a game by more than six points in this series, but Chicago has found ways to close out Indiana in the waning moments. The key for the Bulls in Saturday afternoon's game is to close things out while watching Atlanta and Orlando beat each other up in the 4/5 series.

Derrick Rose closed out the Pacers in Game 3 with a left-handed layup in the final seconds to give Chicago the lead for good and the decisive 3-0 series lead. Rose missed 14 of 18 shots from the field, but knocked down 13 of 15 from the line for a game-high 23 points. The Pacers had their opportunities as they led by five points with 9:30 left, but a 10-0 run by the Bulls in a 2:30 minute span gave Chicago some breathing room.

From the betting standpoint, the Bulls finally managed a cover in Game 3 as the game closed with Chicago laying 3 ½ points. Not everyone cashed in on the Bulls if you jumped on them as four or 4 ½-point favorites through most of Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. The Pacers have held their own by leading in the fourth quarter all of three games, but this team is in an impossible hole to get out of heading into Game 4.

However, just trying to stay alive at this point isn't profitable from a betting standpoint. Since 2004, 23 teams have been stuck in a 3-0 deficit; these clubs are 6-17 SU and 5-16-2 ATS in Game 4's, including a 2-4 SU/ATS mark last postseason. The only team not to close out a series was Boston, who actually lost a pair of Game 4's to Miami (first round) and Orlando (second round).

Following a high-scoring Game 1 (104-99), the 'under' has cashed the last two games rather easily. The Game 2 total was jacked up to 193 after a 188 total in the series opener, but the defense stepped up with a 96-90 Bulls' win in the second game. The total dropped 4 ½ points from Game 2 to Game 3, as Saturday's total is down to 187 ½.

The Bulls are listed as 4 ½ point favorites as the game will be televised nationally on TNT.

Mavs at Blazers - 5:05 PM EST

Portland fell short in each of the first two games at American Airlines Center, but the Blazers bounced back with a 97-92 victory in Game 3. The Mavs had only two players in double-figures as Jason Terry (29 points) and Dirk Nowitzki (25 points) carried the Dallas offense, which shot 51% from the floor. The Blazers shared the scoring load with four players in double-figures, including four three-pointers and 25 points from Wesley Matthews.

This is the only series in the playoffs that has seen two 'overs,' each coming in the last two games. The Game 3 'over' of 187 ½ barely hit following a strong first half that saw a combined 106 points. Portland has outscored Dallas in the second half of Game 1 and Game 3, while the Blazers have shot the ball extremely well in this series despite the 2-1 hole.

Depending on which line you bet for Game 3, the Mavs cashed as a 5 ½-point underdog, improving Dallas to 14-6 ATS as a road 'dog. However, Rick Carlisle's team is just 4-6 ATS the last 10 games in this spot following a 10-0 ATS start to the season when receiving points on the highway. Portland owns a 15-5 SU and 12-7-1 ATS mark as a home favorite off a win, but the Blazers sport a 2-9-1 ATS ledger as home 'chalk' of between 3 ½ and six points.

The Blazers have won four of the last five meetings at the Rose Garden, but Nate McMillan's squad is just 1-5 ATS the last three postseasons as a home favorite. On the flip side, the Mavs are 4-8-1 ATS as a road underdog in the playoffs since 2008, while the cashing the 'over' eight times in this role.

Portland is listed as four-point favorites with the total set at 186 ½. The game will be televised nationally on TNT, as this is a 2:05 PM local tip-off, which could be an 'under' look with the early start.

[StarDust Bum]

Chicago tries to complete sweep of Indiana Saturday


CHICAGO BULLS

at INDIANA PACERS


Eastern Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 4 – Chicago leads series 3-0
Tip-off: Saturday, 2:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -4.5, Total: 188

The Chicago Bulls dominated the regular season so they could set themselves up for the easiest possible playoff run. So far through the first three games of their series against the sub-.500 Pacers, Chicago is wondering if that was the best way to go.

Despite taking a 3-0 lead in the series, Chicago has received all it can from Indiana. The Bulls have become just the fourth team since 1970 to win the first three games of a best-of-seven series when they trailed at the half in each game. Derrick Rose put the Bulls on his back the first two games, averaging over 37.0 PPG in leading them to wins. On Thursday however, Rose struggled a bit, making just 4-of-18 shots, but he did hit the game-winning basket, driving to the hoop and laying the ball in over three Pacers. Luol Deng played a huge part in the Bulls win, scoring 21 points and playing great defense on Danny Granger during the last possession of the game for Indiana when it had a chance to tie or take the lead.

Another game, another frustrating loss for the Pacers, who must be wondering what exactly they have to do to beat the Bulls. Indiana has now lost each of the first three games despite holding at least a five-point lead in the fourth quarter of every contest. Besides dealing with Rose, the Pacers might want to figure out what to do with Kyle Korver, who after leading the NBA in three-pointers made in the fourth quarter during the regular season, is 5-for-5 from deep range in this series. While Indiana has been excellent in holding the Bulls down overall from the field (Chicago is shooting just 40.5 percent in this series), the Pacers need to defend the three better, as the Bulls are making 37 percent of their attempts. Indiana has also done an excellent job forcing turnovers, as the Bulls have just as many assists (53) as they do turnovers this series.

By now, Indiana has proven it can without a doubt, compete and play with the Bulls. What the Pacers haven’t been able to do is prove they can beat the Bulls. Despite having their heart ripped out three straight times, I like the Pacers to come out and play the same ball they have the first three games, with the exception of figuring out a way to finish the job and get a win. I’m taking Indiana plus the points to extend this series back to Chicago.

The FoxSheets show two trends supporting the Pacers:

INDIANA is 14-4 ATS (77.8%, +9.6 Units) in home games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was INDIANA 106.3, OPPONENT 100.4 - (Rating = 1*).

INDIANA is 77-44 ATS (63.6%, +28.6 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points since 1996. The average score was INDIANA 93.2, OPPONENT 91.3 - (Rating = 1*).

[StarDust Bum]

Portland tries to even series with Dallas Saturday


DALLAS MAVERICKS

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 4 – Dallas leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Saturday, 5:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Portland -4.5, Total: 187

The Blazers got on the board in this series with a Game 3 win on Thursday night, and if the Mavs’ recent postseason road record is any indication, Portland has a great chance to pull even on Saturday.

A lot was made of Dallas’s 2-0 lead, and not all of it good for the Mavs. The last time they had a 2-0 series lead was in the 2006 NBA Finals, and they proceeded to lose the next four to the Heat. Since that series, Dallas has gone 2-14 SU and 4-11-1 ATS on the road in the postseason.

Of course, those road struggles are in direct contrast to the Mavs performance during the 2010-11 regular season, when they went 28-13 SU on the road, tied with Miami for the best mark in the NBA. And they had a great shot to steal a win in Portland on Thursday. Dallas shot 51.5% from the field and hit 9-of-22 threes. The Mavericks were within three in the final minute (two if officials had correctly ruled a Jason Kidd jumper a three-pointer) of a 97-92 loss, and they were uncharacteristically poor from the free-throw line (13-for-23, 56.5%) after shooting 77.7% from the line during the regular season. Jason Terry was huge off the bench, scoring a game-high 29 on 10-of-13 shooting from the field, including 5-for-7 from three-point land.

Portland did its part offensively in Game 3. Wesley Matthews, who was invisible in Game 1, continued to progress nicely in this series. He had 13 points on 6-of-11 shooting in Game 2, then erupted for 25 on 8-for-12 FG, including 4-for-6 from three, on Thursday night. Matthews made a name for himself as an undrafted rookie for the Jazz in last year’s postseason, averaging a surprising 13.2 PPG. He could be on his way to another big playoff series.

The Blazers also got a big night off the bench from former star Brandon Roy. A shadow of his former self because of knee problems, Roy had scored two points on 1-of-7 shooting in Game 1, then went scoreless in eight minutes off the bench in Game 2. On Thursday, he shot 6-for-10 from the field and contributed 16 points off the bench. This was huge considering LaMarcus Aldridge’s off night (20 points on 9-of-21 shooting and just four rebounds).

Assuming they can get Aldridge going again on Saturday—he was averaging 27.0 PPG on 52.7% shooting and 8.7 RPG in six games against Dallas this season prior to Thursday—the Blazers should be able to extend the Mavs’ playoff road woes even if they don’t get huge nights from guys like Matthews and Roy. My pick is Portland, which is supported by this highly-rated FoxSheets trend:

Play Against - Underdogs (DALLAS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games. (73-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.2%, +38.9 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Spurs-Grizzlies series shifts to Memphis for Game 3


SAN ANTONIO SPURS

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Saturday, 7:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Memphis -2, Total: 192

After coming close to taking a shocking 2-0 lead in their best-of-seven series with San Antonio, the eighth-seeded Grizzlies instead head home for Saturday’s Game 3 in a 1-1 deadlock with the Spurs.

San Antonio was able to bottle up Memphis big man Zach Randolph on Wednesday, holding him to just 11 points and five rebounds, while Marc Gasol was limited to 12 points. The duo was a combined 7-of-23 from the floor in Wednesday night’s 93-87 Game 2 loss after having helped Memphis lead the NBA this season with a per-game average of 51.5 points in the paint. The Grizzlies instead ended up settling for far more jump shots than usual, which resulted in them shooting under 40 percent Wednesday night, far below their usual 47 percent shooting. Randolph knows one way the Grizzlies can improve immediately.

“We’ve just got to get the ball to the paint,” Randolph said. “We’ve got to drive the basketball. We can’t settle for jump shots. I don’t think they did nothing different. We just didn’t try to get the ball down there.”

The Spurs took Thursday off, taking advantage of the two-day break between games and the chance to rest up in what’s already a very physical series. Spurs center Tim Duncan said Memphis is the toughest No. 8 seed he’s seen in a long time.

“More than anything those guys have a nose for the ball,” Duncan said. “Even when we do get stops, they find a way to get second and third chances on the board. They never quit.”

The Spurs have had a big edge at the free-throw line so far, taking advantage of the physical Grizzlies. San Antonio hit more free throws (22-of-32) than Memphis attempted (14-of-20) in Game 2. Manu Ginobili provided a big boost to the Spurs, returning Wednesday night after having sat out Game 1, scoring 17 points with his sprained right elbow wrapped in a brace.

Memphis has had San Antonio’s number lately, going 4-3 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS in the teams’ last seven meetings dating back to their final regular-season matchup of 2009-10. The Game 3 line opened at Pick, but has since moved to the Grizzlies by 2, indicating that the smart money is backing Memphis. This following four-star trend from the FoxSheets also likes the Grizzlies to prevail in Game 3:

MEMPHIS is 15-2 ATS (88.2%, +12.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 101.9, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder try to take 3-0 series lead in Denver


OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

at DENVER NUGGETS


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 3 – Oklahoma City leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Saturday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -5.5, Total: 205

The Nuggets have fallen behind Oklahoma City 2-0 in what was thought to be one of the most evenly matched series of the playoffs. But things could turn around quickly when the series shifts to Denver on Saturday night.

Possibly because of the altitude change, the Nuggets have always enjoyed one of the bigger home-court advantages in the NBA. That has been especially true since they retooled the team after trading Carmelo Anthony in February. Post-Anthony, Denver is 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS at the Pepsi Center. They’ve outscored opponents by an absurd average of 18.1 PPG during those 12 games.

Game 1 in Oklahoma City was tight (and included a ridiculous non-call on a clear OKC goaltend that swung the momentum late), but Game 2 was not. While Denver got to the line 37 times on the night, they came out ice cold (trailing by as many as 26 early in the second quarter) and shot just 39.1% from the field in the game. Kevin Durant lit them up in both games, averaging 32.0 PPG while shooting 54.1% from the field and 46.2% from three.

Like most teams, the Nuggets typically shoot much better at home. Since the Anthony trade, they’ve shot 50.4% from the field and 41.4% from three in Denver, and 45.7% and 35.7% on the road. The Nuggets are also calling defensive stopper Arron Afflalo (hamstring) probable for Game 3 after he sat out the first two games.

Unfortunately for Denver, that one home loss in the post-Anthony era was to the Thunder. Oklahoma City came into the Pepsi Center on April 5 and jumped on the Nuggets early, outscoring them 27-16 in the first quarter then holding on for a 101-94 victory. Despite playing without Afflalo, the Nuggets managed to hold Russell Westbrook and James Harden to a combined 9-for-29 shooting from the field. But Durant scored 32 points that night, going 11-for-12 from the line while the Thunder shot 35 free throws as a team.

Still, this is a Denver team with its back against the wall, and the Nuggets rarely play a dud game in their own building. The Thunder lost all three of their road playoff games to L.A. a year ago (the only time they’ve been in the playoffs since moving to Oklahoma). I think the Nuggets start to make this series interesting, and they do it with an easy win on Saturday. My pick is Denver.

The FoxSheets have a few trends working in Denver’s favor, including this one that shows George Karl’s teams rarely come out flat two games in a row:

George Karl is 25-7 ATS (78.1%, +17.3 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of DENVER. The average score was DENVER 107.6, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 3*).

Four of the past five meetings between these teams have finished Under the total, and this four-star FoxSheets trend also likes the Under for Saturday’s matchup.

DENVER is 20-5 UNDER (80.0%, +14.5 Units) when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. The average score was DENVER 102.4, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - First Round

April 23, 2011

First Round Results

Favorites are 16-5 straight up
Underdogs are 15-6 against the spread
The 'under' stands at 12-9
Home teams are 15-6 straight up



Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr. 16
Indiana Chicago (-12.5) 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Philadelphia Miami (-10.5) 97-89 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Atlanta (+9) Orlando 103-93 UNDERDOG OVER 181
Portland Dallas (-5) 89-81 FAVORITE UNDER 186

Sunday, Apr. 17
Memphis (+6.5) San Antonio 101-98 UNDERDOG OVER 195.5
New Orleans (+11) L.A. Lakers 109-100 UNDERDOG OVER 184.5
New York Boston (-6) 87-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 197.5
Denver Oklahoma City (-6) 107-103 UNDERDOG OVER 206

Monday, Apr. 18
Philadelphia Miami (-9) 94-73 FAVORITE UNDER 190
Indiana Chicago (-11) 96-90 UNDERDOG UNDER 192

Tuesday, Apr. 19
New York Boston (-6.5) 96-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 192.5
Atlanta Orlando (-9.5) 88-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 182.5
Portland Dallas (-4) 101-89 FAVORITE OVER 184.5

Wednesday, Apr. 20
Denver Oklahoma City (-4.5) 106-89 FAVORITE UNDER 206.5
Memphis San Antonio (-8) 93-87 UNDERDOG UNDER 193.5
New Orleans L.A. Lakers (-11.5) 87-79 UNDERDOG UNDER 185.5

Thursday, Apr. 21
Chicago (-3.5) Indiana 88-84 FAVORITE UNDER 189.5
Miami (-4.5) Philadelphia 100-94 FAVORITE OVER 185
Dallas Portland (-5.5) 97-92 UNDERDOG OVER 187.5

Friday, Apr. 22
Boston (+3) New York 113-96 UNDERDOG OVER 191
Orlando Atlanta (+1.5) 88-84 UNDERDOG UNDER 180
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Saturday, Apr. 23
Chicago Indiana
Dallas Portland
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Sunday, Apr. 24
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Monday, Apr. 25
San Antonio Memphis
Portland Dallas
Oklahoma City Denver

Tuesday, Apr. 26
Indiana Chicago
New York Boston
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, Apr. 27
Philadelphia Miami
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City

Thursday, Apr. 28
Chicago Indiana
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 29
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Saturday, Apr. 30
Indiana Chicago
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers
Portland Dallas

Sunday, May 1
Philadelphia Miami
New York Boston
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/22/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
04/21/11 4-*1-*1 80.00% +*1450 Detail
04/20/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/19/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/18/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
04/17/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% -*200 Detail
04/16/11 2-*6-*0 25.00% -*2300 Detail
Totals 20-*21-*1 48.78% -*1550

Saturday, April 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 2:30 PM ET Indiana +4.5 500
Indiana - Over 187.5 500

Dallas - 5:00 PM ET Dallas +4 500
Portland - Over 186.5 500

San Antonio - 7:30 PM ET Memphis -2 500
Memphis - Under 192 500

Oklahoma City - 10:00 PM ET Oklahoma City +5.5 500
Denver - Under 204.5 500

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Bum!

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Record as of Sunday Morning:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/23/11 6-*2-*0 75.00% +*1900 Detail
04/22/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/21/11 4-*1-*1 80.00% +*1450 Detail
04/20/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/19/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/18/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
04/17/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% -*200 Detail
04/16/11 2-*6-*0 25.00% -*2300 Detail
Totals 26-*25-*1 50.98% -*750

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Knicks face elimination vs. Celtics

The New York Knicks are on the brink of elimination as they host the Boston Celtics in Game 4 of their series on Sunday. No NBA team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit in the playoffs.

The Don Best odds screen will be updated soon with the latest lines. The national broadcast from Madison Square Garden will shift to ABC beginning at 12:30 p.m. (PT).

New York’s celebrity crowd on Friday was pumped up for the first home playoff game since 2004. It might have been better waiting one more year.

The Knicks (42-43 straight-up, 48-35-2 against the spread) surprisingly didn’t come to play, trailing by eight points at halftime and a whopping 23 after three quarters. The 113-96 final was an embarrassment for a team that was 3 ½-point favorites. That spread actually moved up as it got closer to game time.

New York has to be extra disappointed after fighting so hard the first two games in Boston. The Knicks lost 87-85 and 96-93, ‘covering’ the spread as six and 6 ½-point ‘dogs respectively. They’re now 0-7 SU against Boston this year (4-3 ATS).

Amare Stoudemire had just seven points in Game 3 on 2-of-8 shooting. He’s clearly still bothered by his sore back and there’s no guarantee it will be better by Sunday. Carmelo Anthony followed up his dominant 42-point performance in Game 2 with 15 points, going a woeful 4-of-16 from the field.

Point guard Chauncey Billups missed his second consecutive game and is listed as doubtful for Sunday. His replacement Toney Douglas scored 15 points last game, but had just three assists and isn’t doing anything defensively to stop Rajon Rondo.

Rondo put on a clinic with a triple-double of 15 points, 11 rebounds and 20 assists. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combined for 70 points while shooting 25-of-37 from the field (67.6 percent). That includes an incredible 14-of-19 (73.7 percent) from three-point land.

The 209 combined points scored last game went way ‘over’ the 191 point total. The ‘over’ is 7-1 in New York’s last eight home games. The ‘under’ was 2-0 in the two playoff games in Boston.

The Celtics (59-26 SU, 39-44-2 ATS) have to be feeling great about themselves after this effort. It was a championship type performance for a team that could have easily lost the first two games.

Center Jermaine O’Neal has given quality minutes in the middle. He had modest numbers (six points, three rebounds) in just 27 minutes last game, but was a presence defensively with three blocks. He needs to keep playing well with Shaquille O’Neal (calf) doubtful and backup Glen Davis in a funk offensively, 10 total points the first three games.

The rest of Boston’s bench is also struggling with 100 of the 113 points last game coming from the starters.

Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni is reportedly fighting for his job and has a big motivation task for Sunday. His guys have to feel snake-bitten with the injuries to both Billups and Stoudemire. Billups’ leadership is really missing on both ends of the court.

The first thing D’Antoni has to do is address the lack of defensive effort. Rondo can’t be allowed to whatever he wants on the court. He’s continually creating great looks for his teammates. The only good news is Allen and Pierce can’t possibly be that hot from long range again.

Boston did take a 3-0 lead against Miami in the opening round last year, but lost 101-92 in Game 4 as 1 ½-point road ‘dogs. New York certainly hopes history repeats itself.

Game 5 of the series will be played on Tuesday if necessary, but the Knicks will have to give a much better effort on Sunday.