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**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 12:34 PM

NBA Playoff Preview: Miami-Philadelphia

With the NBA regular season wrapping up on Wednesday, it’s time to look ahead to the postseason, which begins Saturday. To get you ready for the playoffs, we have analyzed all 16 playoff teams to determine just how long each would last in the postseason. Next up is the Heat/76ers series.
Betting Odds are according to Sportsbook.com.

No. 2 seed MIAMI HEAT vs.
No. 7 seed PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Series Schedule:
Game 1 at MIA: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Game 2 at MIA: Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 3 at PHI: Thursday, April 21, 8:00 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 4 at PHI: Sunday, April 24, 1:00 p.m. ET (ABC)

Game 5 at MIA: Wednesday, April 27, TBD* (TBD)

Game 6 at PHI: Friday, April 29, TBD* (TBD)

Game 7 at MIA: Sunday, May 1, TBD* (TBD)
* If necessary

MIAMI HEAT (58-24)
(7-to-2 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
LeBron James has been criticized for choking in playoff games, but it’s hard to find fault with any of these unbelievable statistics in the past two postseasons: 32.6 PPG, 51% FG, 36% 3-pt FG, 9.2 RPG, 7.4 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.3 BPG. Dwyane Wade is also coming off a brilliant 2010 playoff year, scoring 33.2 PPG on 56% FG, 41% 3-pt FG, 5.6 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.6 SPG and 1.6 BPG. The third part of the All-Star trio, Chris Bosh, has never seen the second round of the playoffs, but in his last postseason with Toronto in 2008, Bosh had 24.0 PPG and 9.0 RPG. Point guard Mike Bibby has played pretty well since arriving in Miami, but the 32-year-old hasn’t always been on the mark in the second season, shooting just 42.0% FG in his playoff career. Bibby has been a sharp shooter from downtown though, nailing 39% of his threes, including 49% (40-of-82) in the past two postseasons. Although this team isn’t blessed with a true center, Miami’s guards rebound as well as anybody, and the team is third in the NBA in rebounding margin (+2.9 RPG).

Reasons they can’t:
The Heat have had trouble beating good teams all season. Miami was 3-8 SU combined against the top three teams in the conference -- Chicago, Boston and Orlando. Miami is also likely to play Boston in the second round, and even with Sunday’s win against Boston, the Celtics had won 17 of the past 20 meetings including three of four this season. Also, head coach Erik Spoelstra has never won a playoff series, going 4-8 in his first two postseasons. He will be coaching the oldest team in the NBA, according to average age of Opening Day rosters, and this team has had its share of injuries throughout the season.

******* Brian’s projection:
The spotlight will shine on this team for however long they remain in the playoffs, as fans will be eager to see how the three All-Stars fare in their first postseason together. The Heat certainly have the talent to reach the NBA Finals, but Chicago and Boston will not go down easily for Miami to win the East.

PHILADELPHIA 76ers (41-41)
(300-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
There are no superstars on this team, but the chemistry is good and they share the basketball, ranking second in assists among Eastern Conference teams (22.7 APG). They also play tough defense without fouling, as Philly’s number of personal fouls is second-lowest in the conference, bettered only by Atlanta. The 76ers also rank among the top 10 NBA teams in both FG Pct. defense (45.1%) and three-point shooting percentage (34.0%).

Elton Brand leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and will be making his postseason debut with Philadelphia after missing its 2009 playoff campaign. Brand averaged 25.4 PPG on 55% FG and grabbed 10.3 RPG in his only postseason appearance in 2006 with the Clippers. Jrue Holiday has continued to improve greatly at the point-guard position as his numbers sky-rocketed in his second NBA season that saw him start every game. Andre Iguodala has been battling knee problems, but is still posting strong numbers in most statistical categories. His shooting percentage took a dive late in the season, which probably has something to do with his bothersome knee. Iguodala had a monster postseason during Philly’s last appearance in 2009, racking up 21.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 6.7 APG. Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young and Jodie Meeks are the other three players who average double figures for Philly.Reasons they can’t:
Philadelphia hasn’t won a playoff series since 2003. Since that series victory, the 76ers are 7-16 (.304) in the postseason. Philly also has very little shot of beating Boston or Miami in a first-round series based on its combined 8-22 record (.267) against these two teams since the 2007-08 season. Although head coach Doug Collins has been around forever, he hasn’t won a playoff series since 1989 with Chicago, and carries a subpar 15-23 (.395) career mark in the postseason.

******* Brian’s projection:
The 76ers are a mediocre team, which would not be sniffing a playoff spot if they were out west. They will be fortunate to win any games in this 2011 postseason.

******* Series Prediction: Heat in five.
Their personnel is far superior, and the Heat seem to be getting it together at the right time.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 12:48 PM

NBA Betting: Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat favored to win East

The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat could be on a collision course for the Eastern Conference Finals with each playing some of their best basketball of the season.

Chicago is the plus 130 favorite to win the conference at Bookmaker.com, followed closely by Miami (plus 155). The Bulls edged San Antonio for home-court advantage throughout the entire playoffs and are the second-favorite to win the NBA title behind the Lakers. Their 36-5 straight-up home mark was tied for best in the league.

Coach Tom Thibodeau has done tremendously in his first NBA head coaching job. He got the team to buy into his defensive system (91.3 PPG, second in the league). The 62-20 SU record was punctuated by a 21-2 SU run to close the year (14-9 against the spread).

Point guard Derrick Rose (25 PPG, 7.7 APG) is the likely league MVP. Carlos Boozer (17.5 PPG) and Luol Deng (17.4 PPG) are two other proven scorers, while Joakim Noah brings defense and rebounding (10.4 RPG). Add a solid bench and the Bulls’ hunger for their first NBA Finals since Michael Jordan in 1998, and it’s easy to justify their favorite status.

The worry spots are lack of playoff experience, starting with the coach even though he won a title as a Boston assistant. Chicago was also .500 the last two years, losing in the first round both times. It’s not used to being the top dog and it could show.

The Heat (58-24 SU) fell far short of the preseason predictions of 70-wins, but they can still meet the bigger goal of winning a title. Coach Erik Spoelstra’s guys rebounded from a five-game losing streak in early March with a 15-3 SU close. That helped overtake Boston for the second seed.

The big question is who’s going to step up offensively after LeBron James (26.7 PPG), Dwyane Wade (25.5 PPG) and Chris Bosh (18.7 PPG). A consistent low-post threat is also needed even if James has to get into the box himself. That will be key against Chicago or Boston, great defensive teams than can slow down tempo.

This is also the first playoff foray together for the ‘Big 3’ and James’ Cleveland teams underachieved in the playoffs the last few years. Wade is under less pressure with a title from the 2005/2006 Heat squad.

Now, here’s a look at the rest of the Eastern Conference odds.

Boston Celtics (plus 230)

The defending East Conference champ seemed destined for one more title run, but the deadline trade of Kendrick Perkins has sent the team into a funk. The third-seed Celtics (56-26 SU) are 15-12 SU and 11-16 ATS since losing their ornery big man. Shaquille O’Neal is badly needed to fill the void, but the 39-year-old behemoth is likely to miss at least the start of the playoffs. Boston clearly looks a step below Chicago and Miami.

Orlando Magic (plus 650)

The four-seed Magic (52-30 SU) took a step back from last year’s 59 wins and it’s hard to remember they made the conference finals the last two years. GM Otis Smith overhauled the team in December with two blockbuster trades, but the results before (16-10 SU) and after (36-20 SU) weren’t that different. Dwight Howard is still a force inside, but there’s too much reliance on three-pointers, leading the NBA in attempts.

New York Knicks (plus 3500)

The Knicks (42-40 SU) are just 14-14 SU since acquiring Denver’s Carmelo Anthony, but they did have a recent seven-game winning streak. Boston is a good opening round matchup as Anthony should be able to wear down 33-year-old Paul Pierce, while Amare Stoudemire can do the same with 34-year-old Kevin Garnett. The storied Celtics only have a 7-6 playoff series edge all-time, with the Knicks winning the last one in 1990.

Atlanta Hawks (plus 3600)

Atlanta (44-38 SU) gets Orlando in the opening round as the fifth seed. The Hawks have been swept in the conference semis the last two years, last season to Orlando. They have had success against the Magic the season (3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS), limiting Howard to 19.3 PPG and 43.1 percent shooting. Atlanta did end the year losing six straight, but there wasn’t a lot to play for and this should be a tight opening series.

Philadelphia 76ers (plus 4000)

Philadelphia went 1-5 SU (0-6 ATS) to end the year and now gets Miami in the first round. Seventh-seed Philly (41-41 SU) is very deep with six players averaging between 10.5-15 PPG, but doesn’t have star power. That’s usually a bad playoff formula as someone needs to step up in the fourth quarter. The 76ers got swept all three games by Miami this year (1-2 ATS) and more of the same could be in store.

Indiana Pacers (plus 6000)

Indiana (37-45 SU) is happy to make its first playoff appearance since 2006, but this below .500 eighth seed would be 12th in the Western Conference. Danny Granger (20.5 PPG) is a nice player and there’s other young talent. However, the team’s playoff inexperience combined with a 13-28 SU road record adds up to an easy first-round opponent for the powerful Bulls.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 12:49 PM

NBA Playoff Odds: Who can upset LA Lakers?

Normally speaking, regardless of the sport that you're playing, the teams that earn the best regular season record have the lowest odds to win their championship. That's not true, however, when it comes to the 2011 NBA Finals odds.

Not only are the Chicago Bulls, the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, not favored to make it to the title series, neither are the San Antonio Spurs, the top seed out west.

Today, we've got our eye on the Western Conference and the eight teams that are left standing in the dance.

The favorites to get back to the NBA Finals once again are the Los Angeles Lakers, but we don't think that they're justified as even-money favorites to get there. Sure, LA is going to have a relatively easy first round series with the New Orleans Hornets, but beyond that, the road is going to be very, very tough.

Remember that the men in purple and gold have that huge target on their backs as the defending champs, and they seem to be as fragile of a team as they have ever been. The Lakers lost a ton of home games this year to questionable teams, and before winning these final two games of the year, they had lost five in a row.

Still, the Hornets are the longest shot on the board to win the conference at plus 9500 for a reason. LA should get through the first round, but after that, things could get mighty interesting.

The Dallas Mavericks don't seem to be getting a heck of a lot of respect as the No. 3 seed in the West. Dallas is going to take on the Portland Trail Blazers in what should be a great series starting this weekend.

Portland really has come on strong with the addition of Gerald Wallace into the fold, and if there is an upset to be had in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, this would be series. 5Dimes Sportsbook features the Mavs at plus 815 and the Blazers at plus 2750 to win the conference.

Everyone's upstart team from the Western Conference is the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder have a fantastic group with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and many feel the move that was made to acquire Kendrick Perkins from the Boston Celtics might be the move that puts this team over the top.

Oklahoma City will have home-court advantage for the first time since relocating to the Sooner State, but the Denver Nuggets would love to spoil the party. It's hard to think that this team might be better without Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, though we know at this point, big game experience isn't something that is on the side of the Nugs.

Denver is a longshot at plus 2750, while the Thunder are coming in at plus 750 as the third choice on the board.

We love the fact that the Memphis Grizzlies are back in the playoffs once again, but that really doesn't necessarily mean good things for them. They have been in the postseason three times before, and they're 0-12 to show for their work in those 12 games. Yikes.

The truth of the matter is that the matchup with the Spurs is probably about as good as it could've gotten for Memphis, but that doesn't mean that there is more than maybe one game to be won. It wasn't an accident that San Antonio won 61 games in the regular season, and with the best home record in the NBA at 36-5, we find the price at plus 230 to win the Western Conference is phenomenal.

Memphis is the second longest shot on the NBA odds at plus 9000.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 01:04 PM

Heat-Sixers Outlook

April 14, 2011

No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

Series Format: Miami, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
41-41 46-35-1 26-15 15-26 40-42 99.0 97.5
58-24 40-41-1 30-11 28-13 41-40-1 102.1 94.6

2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
03/25/11 Philadelphia 99 @ Miami 111 (-8) OVER 196
11/26/10 Philadelphia 90 @ Miami 99 (-11) UNDER 196
10/27/10 Miami 97 (-8) @ Philadelphia 87 UNDER 192.5

Skinny: At one point this season, the Heat were 9-8 and the questions flew on whether or not the Big Three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh could carry this team to a championship. Miami rebounded nicely with a 49-16 run over the last four months to capture the second seed in the top-heavy Eastern Conference. The Heat accomplished two things by grabbing the second seed as they avoid the rival Knicks in the first round and Miami gets home-court advantage in a potential second round matchup against Boston. First, the Heat needs to get past a Sixers' squad that also had to overcome a slow start out of the gate.

Philadelphia began the season at 3-13 and it looked like the Sixers would be shut out of the playoffs for the second straight year. However, the Sixers slowly chipped away and finally went above the .500 mark on February 27 at 30-29. Philadelphia never fell below .500 the rest of the way, but couldn't capture the sixth seed by dropping five of six down the stretch to fall into the seventh slot.

James, Wade, and Bosh combined to score 70.9 of the team's 102.1 ppg, or nearly 70% of their total points. Miami dominated on the highway with a 27-13 mark, the second-best road record in the NBA behind Dallas. That number is important moving forward as the Heat can close a series on the highway, while the Sixers finished the season at just 15-26 away from the Wells Fargo Center.

The Heat struggled against the league's elite teams with a 7-12 record against the Bulls, Celtics, Magic, Spurs, Lakers, Mavs, and Thunder. Basically, Miami took care of its business against any team not in the upper-echelon with a 51-12 mark, including a three-game sweep of Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Sixers won just four games against the top eight teams in the league, but covered eight of 14 games versus the top four clubs in the Eastern Conference.

The first time these teams met was in late October at the Wells Fargo Center, one day after the Heat lost the much-anticipated opener at Boston. Miami rebounded nicely with a 97-87 victory as eight-point favorites, highlighted by a 31-13 third-quarter outburst. Wade put up 30 points, while James Jones drilled six treys and contributed 20 points off the bench.

The two clubs hooked up in South Florida one month later, as the Heat took care of the Sixers the day after Thanksgiving with a 99-90 triumph. Philadelphia covered as 11-point underdogs, dropping the Sixers to 3-13 on the season, despite hitting 47% of their shots from the floor. James struggled with his jump shot, nailing just five of 15 tries, as his field-goal numbers through the first two meetings with Philadelphia stood at 10 for 27 (37%).

In the final meeting in late March at American Airlines Arena, the two teams went back and forth throughout the entire contest with each squad owning a double-digit lead. The Heat would stave off the Sixers, 111-99 as Miami outscored Philaelphia by 17 points in the final quarter. James finally solved the Philadelphia defense with 32 points, while Wade put up a game-high 39. The Sixers spread the scoring around as six players finished with double-figures, led by 24 off the bench from Lou Williams.

Gambling Notes: The Heat never found their groove covering numbers at home, as they went 13-17 ATS the final 30 games at the AAA. Gamblers profited with Miami as road favorites, going 17-9 ATS when laying points on the highway since December 2. The Sixers were tied with the Knicks for the third-most ATS wins in the league at 46, even though Philadelphia dropped six straight games ATS down the stretch. Philadelphia covered nine of 13 games as a home underdog, the role it would likely be in for Games 3 and 4 (and a potential Game 6).

Series Outlook: Miami has been waiting for the postseason to start since James, Wade, and Bosh held their rock concert last summer to declare a bright future for this franchise. The Sixers did a fantastic job in digging out of a huge hole in November, but to slow down the Big Three without a legitimate superstar will hurt Philadelphia in this long series. The Heat will move on to the second round in five games against this feisty Sixers squad.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 01:05 PM

Bulls-Pacers Outlook

April 14, 2011

No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 8 Indiana Pacers

Series Format: Chicago, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
37-45 38-42-2 24-17 13-28 37-45 99.8 100.9
62-20 49-31-2 36-5 26-15 35-47 98.6 91.3

2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
03/18/11 Chicago 108 @ Indiana 115 (+4) OT OVER 189
01/29/11 Indiana 89 @ Chicago 110 (-7) OVER 193
01/14/11 Chicago 99 (-1) @ Indiana 86 UNDER 192.5
12/13/10 Indiana 73 @ Chicago 92 (-9) UNDER 191.5

Skinny: It took 13 seasons, but the Bulls are back as the top seed in the Eastern Conference for the first time since Michael Jordan's last championship in 1998. Chicago was not expected to make this kind of this fast with Boston, Miami, and Orlando are trying to get the number one seed heading into the season. However, the arrival of Tom Thibadeau as head coach and key free agent signings of Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver from Utah have boosted this team to a league-best 62-20 record.

It's tough to mention the Bulls without point guard and MVP candidate Derrick Rose, who averaged career highs in ppg (25), rebounds (4.1), and assists (7.7) this season. Chicago cleaned up within its division by going 15-1 against foes from the Central, but the lone loss came to the team its facing the opening round of the playoffs.

The Indiana Pacers are the only below .500 team that qualified for the postseason (37-45), as this team looks to pull a major upset in the first round. The Pacers went through a coaching change as Jim O'Brien was fired on January 30 following a 17-27 start, replaced by assistant Frank Vogel, who finished the season at 20-18. Vogel made the Pacers a more uptempo squad as Indiana topped the 100-point mark in each of the first 12 games since the coaching change.

Chicago's defense frustrated opponents all season long by limiting teams to 91.3 ppg, second in the league behind Boston. The Bulls led the NBA in defensive field goal percentage (43%), while holding teams to less than 100 points on 63 occasions. In three of four meetings, the Bulls' defense did its job against the Pacers by limiting them 89 points or less.

Pacers' leading scorer Danny Granger missed the first meeting between these teams with a sprained left ankle on December 13 at the United Center, a 92-73 Bulls' thrashing as nine-point favorites. Chicago limited Indiana to 32 second-half points and 35% shooting from the floor for the night, the sixth straight win for the Bulls at the time. Boozer put up his best game after missing the first 15 contests with a hand injury by pulling down 18 rebounds and scoring 22 points.

Indiana got Granger back the second time around at Conseco Fieldhouse on January 14, but it wasn't enough as the Pacers fell, 99-86 as short home underdogs. The Pacers once again struggled from the field by shooting 32%, while Granger made eight of 23 shots for a team-high 22 points. This loss starting a six-game skid for the Pacers, who were on their way to missing the playoffs for the fifth straight season.

O'Brien was let go after the Pacers got blown out at the United Center, 110-89 on January 29. The Bulls shot nearly 48% from the field, while getting another double-double from Boozer (24 points, 10 rebounds). After the coaching change to Vogel, the Pacers were ready to make a playoff run at the bottom of the shaky Eastern Conference.

Indiana won nine of next 12 games when Vogel took over to become a threat as a playoff team in the East. One of the biggest victories came at home against the Bulls on March 18, a wild 115-108 overtime triumph as four-point underdogs. Things seemed to fall apart in the final seconds of regulation when Rose was fouled on a three-pointer and nailed all three free throws to tie the game. The Pacers overcame the 42-point night from Rose as Tyler Hansbrough put up a 29-point, 12-rebound effort to finally get Indiana over the hump against Chicago.

Gambling Notes: Surprisingly, the Bulls were a solid covering machine by compiling a 49-31-2 ATS record, while going 15-12 ATS as a road favorite. Chicago profited with a 21-15-1 ATS mark as home 'chalk,' while putting together a 15-10 ledger to the 'under' when laying at least 6 ½ points.

The Pacers didn't help backers with a 12-19-2 ATS mark as road underdogs, but Indiana was 2-12 ATS with no rest when getting points on the road, which won't apply in the playoffs. Indiana won just four of 12 games as a home underdog, while going 6-6 ATS when getting points at Conseco.

Series Outlook: Only one time has a top seed lost in this round in the Eastern Conference and it happened in the strike-shortened season of 1999 when the Knicks eliminated the Heat. The Bulls will have the target on their backs during the playoffs, but it may be asking too much for Indiana to pull off four victories. Chicago will advance to the second round in five games over Indiana.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 01:57 PM

NBA Playoff Preview: San Antonio-Memphis

With the NBA regular season wrapping up on Wednesday, it’s time to look ahead to the postseason, which begins Saturday. To get you ready for the playoffs, we have analyzed all 16 playoff teams to determine just how long each would last in the postseason. Next up is the Spurs/Grizzlies series.
Betting Odds are according to Sportsbook.com.

No. 1 seed SAN ANTONIO SPURS vs.
No. 8 seed MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Series Schedule:
Game 1 at SAS: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 2 at SAS: Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV)

Game 3 at MEM: Saturday, April 23, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Game 4 at MEM: Monday, April 25, TBD (TBD)

Game 5 at SAS: Wednesday, April 27, TBD* (TBD)

Game 6 at MEM: Friday, April 29, TBD* (TBD)

Game 7 at SAS: Sunday, May 1, TBD* (TBD)
* If necessary

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (61-21)
(9-to-2 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
The Spurs have clearly been the best team in the NBA this season, as they have the league’s best record despite a six-game losing skid late in the year while their star players rested. This team has all the ingredients to hang another championship banner from the rafters. San Antonio has playoff experience, great depth, and an elite head coach whose teams play with an intelligence and unselfishness that is truly unique in the modern-day NBA. San Antonio led the Western Conference in FG Pct. (47.6%), and was tops among the entire NBA in three-point shooting (39.7% FG) and fewest fouls committed.

Tim Duncan should be well-rested for the playoffs after averaging a career-low 28.4 minutes per game this season. Although he turns 35 on April 25, Duncan can still get it done when it counts. He has averaged 23.0 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 3.5 APG and 2.6 BPG in his 170-game playoff career. Tony Parker also enters the postseason well-rested, and will try to maintain his gaudy numbers over the past four postseasons (21.4 PPG, 5.9 APG, 49.2% FG). Manu Ginobili is coming off maybe his best NBA campaign, and the Spurs have developed some capable role players in George Hill, Gary Neal and DeJuan Blair.

Reasons they can’t:
Durability is certainly an issue for this veteran team, and despite the past championships, San Antonio enters the 2011 postseason just 11-18 (38%) in its most recent 29 playoff games, including 2-13 (13%) on the road during this span. The Spurs’ lack of team speed was exposed in last year’s sweep by Phoenix, and they still do not boast the greatest athletes on the floor.

******* Brian’s projection:
The Spurs should breeze through the first two rounds with favorable matchups. They are 11-5 versus Memphis and 10-4 against Oklahoma City over the past four seasons. But San Antonio will likely be the underdog if it met the Lakers in the conference finals, and it would take an enormous showing from all the big three of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili to win another NBA Championship.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (46-36)
(200-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
When this team is focused, it can hang with the best squads the East has to offer. Since the 2007-08 season, Atlanta is 9-5 versus Chicago and 12-11 against Miami. Josh Smith (knee) and Jason Collins (ankle) have gotten plenty of rest down the stretch to keep them fresh for the playoffs. Smith is second on the team in both points and rebounds, while leading the Hawks in both steals and blocks.

Joe Johnson has seen a drop in numbers across the boards, but he still leads the team in scoring and always fills out the stat sheet in numerous categories. He averaged 17.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG and 5.0 APG in the 2010 playoffs, but only shot 38.7% FG and 9-for-41 from downtown (22.0%). Al Horford continues to improve each and every year, as he increased his scoring and shooting averages for the third straight season. Horford averaged 14.6 PPG and 9.0 RPG, while shooting 52% FG and 84% FT during last year’s playoffs. Kirk Hinrich has been shooting the three-ball at an impressive clip (42%) since being traded to Atlanta. He also shot lights out from three-point range in the past two postseasons, going 21-for-46 (46%). Jamal Crawford has had a down year in just about every statistical category, but he still provides instant offense off the bench, and had 16.3 PPG in last year’s playoffs.

Reasons they can’t:
Although the Eastern Conference has plenty of green coaches, Larry Drew just finished his first season as an NBA head coach. Drew’s first order of business will be to figure out how to win on the road in the playoffs as his team is 2-19 in its past 21 postseason road games. If Josh Smith’s knee is still bothering him, this team takes a big hit. Smith has made just 43.6% FG (17.9% on threes) in his playoff career and only scored 14.1 PPG last postseason.

******* Brian’s projection:
The Hawks certainly have the overall talent to put a scare in most teams in the conference, but they haven’t shown the consistent excellence that is necessary to thrive in the postseason.

******* Series Prediction: Spurs in five.
A shaky shooting night could allow the Grizzlies to steal one in Memphis, but the Spurs should have no problem moving on to round two.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 01:58 PM

NBA Playoff Preview: Dallas-Portland

With the NBA regular season wrapping up on Wednesday, it’s time to look ahead to the postseason, which begins Saturday. To get you ready for the playoffs, we have analyzed all 16 playoff teams to determine just how long each would last in the postseason. Next up is the Mavericks/Trail Blazers series.
Betting Odds are according to Sportsbook.com.

No. 3 seed DALLAS MAVERICKS vs.
No. 6 seed PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Series Schedule:
Game 1 at DAL: Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Game 2 at DAL: Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 3 at POR: Thursday, April 21, 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 4 at POR: Saturday, April 23, 5:00 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 5 at DAL: Monday, April 25, TBD* (TBD)

Game 6 at POR: Thursday, April 28, TBD* (TBD)

Game 7 at DAL: Saturday, April 30, TBD* (TNT)
* If necessary

DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25)
(20-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
Dirk Nowitzki is reason enough to respect this Mavericks team, which had the league’s best road record at 28-13 (.683). Dallas also has one of the top five shooting percentages (47.5% FG) in the NBA. Nowitzki came on strong late in the season, averaging 24.6 PPG on 52% FG and 7.9 RPG during the month of March. Despite the Mavs only winning one playoff series in the past three seasons, Nowitzki has been a monster during this span with 26.8 PPG on 53% FG and 10.0 RPG.

Jason Kidd is the biggest key to Dallas’ playoff hopes, and the 38-year-old really took care of the basketball in the 2010 postseason with 42 assists and just nine turnovers in the six games. Off-season acquisition Tyson Chandler has had a solid first year with Dallas, averaging nearly a double-double (10.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG) and sporting a career-high 65.4% FG percentage. Jason Terry (16.8 PPG in playoff career), Shawn Marion (16.4 PPG in playoff career) and Peja Stojakovic (16.2 PPG in playoff career) are all veterans capable of breaking out with 25-point playoff games. This team has been very adept at stringing together winning streaks this season, as Dallas was 43-13 (.768) after a win.

Reasons they can’t:
The Mavericks are just 2-13 (13%) in their past 15 road playoff games. Over the past four seasons, they have losing records versus five of the other seven West playoff clubs (all but Memphis and Oklahoma City). Dallas has not played as well since Caron Butler (16.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG) suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Mavs are only an average rebounding team, and Chandler is playing with a bad back.

******* Brian’s projection:
Until Dallas beats a great team in the postseason, it’s a difficult proposition to ride the Mavericks no matter what seed they are. Many have labeled Dallas a “soft” team, and that description won’t fade until they show some true grit and knock off an elite West team.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (48-34)
(50-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
Portland has more than held its own against the conference’s elite squads. The Blazers are 32-27 (.542) against this season’s top four seeds in the West since 2007-08, including a 6-2 mark to finish this season. This team has thrived on little rest, going 38-27 (.585) with zero or one day off this season.

LaMarcus Aldridge has had a career-best season and has also strung together two quality playoff campaigns (19.3 PPG on 46% FG with 6.8 RPG). Gerald Wallace was a great mid-season pickup who continued to get more comfortable in Portland’s offense as the season moved on. In a 10-game stretch ending April 8, Wallace averaged 20.0 PPG on 53% FG and added 8.0 RPG. He also put together a strong 2010 postseason for Charlotte, scoring 17.5 PPG on 48% FG (5-of-11 threes) and 9.0 RPG. Andre Miller is still one of the better point guards in the league with an assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly 3-to-1 during the regular season. However, the playoffs have been a different story as his Ast/TO ratio has fallen to 1.8 in his postseason career.

Reasons they can’t:
Going back all the way to 2000, Portland is 7-19 (.269) in its past 26 playoff games and 2-13 (.133) on the road. They were below .500 on the road during the regular season (18-23), including 6-15 (.286) when pitted as the road underdog. Portland had the lowest field-goal percentage of any 2011 West playoff team (44.7%) and had the second-worst FG Pct. defense among all 16 playoff teams (46.7%), better than only New York. Brandon Roy just hasn’t been the same after double knee surgery, and his minutes and points have fallen by about nine per game in both categories since last year. He was also terrible in the 2010 playoffs, with 9.7 PPG on 30.3% FG.

******* Brian’s projection:
The Blazers will not be an easy team to eliminate in the first round because they always seem to play at a high level against great teams. Aldridge and Wallace create mismatches for opposing defenses, and they play great basketball at the Rose Garden.

******* Series Prediction: Blazers in seven.
Portland’s young guys will be up to the task, and Dallas is simply not built for playoff success. The Blazers will control the tempo all series long and steal one on the road, propelling them to the series win.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 01:59 PM

NBA Playoff Preview: L.A. Lakers-New Orleans

With the NBA regular season wrapping up on Wednesday, it’s time to look ahead to the postseason, which begins Saturday. To get you ready for the playoffs, we have analyzed all 16 playoff teams to determine just how long each would last in the postseason. Next up is the Lakers/Hornets series.
Betting Odds are according to Sportsbook.com.

No. 2 seed LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs.
No. 7 seed NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Series Schedule:
Game 1 at LAL: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Game 2 at LAL: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 3 at NO: Friday, April 22, 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Game 4 at NO: Sunday, April 24, 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 5 at LAL: Tuesday, April 26, TBD* (TBD)

Game 6 at NO: Thursday, April 28, TBD* (TBD)

Game 7 at LAL: Saturday, April 30, TBD* (TNT)
* If necessary

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (57-25)
(2-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
The Lakers certainly have the experience and talent to win a third straight championship. Over the past four campaigns (including postseason), the Lakers have a winning record against each of the seven other West playoff teams, combining for a stellar 83-38 record (.686).

They also have the most proven postseason performer in the world in Kobe Bryant, who is averaging 30.0 PPG on 46.4% FG in his past four postseasons. But this team isn’t just about Bryant. Pau Gasol averaged 19.6 PPG and 11.1 RPG during last year’s postseason title run, and sixth-man Lamar Odom is averaging 11.0 PPG and 8.9 RPG in the past two postseasons. Center Andrew Bynum averaged 34.3 minutes and 13.3 rebounds per game in his first six contests in April before suffering a knee bruise Tuesday versus San Antonio. Ron Artest and Derek Fisher are clutch performers, especially come playoff time.

Los Angeles leads the Western Conference in both FG Pct. defense and rebounding margin this season, which shows the Lakers are as physically tough as any team out West.

Reasons they can’t:
Los Angeles has been wildly inconsistent all season, playing down to the level of its opponents. The Lakers dropped five straight games in April (two to non-playoff teams), failing to surpass 90 points in the first four of those defeats. Bynum could miss a game or two to start the playoffs and he is always an injury waiting to happen. Considering the other four starters are all at least 30 years old, fatigue could be factor moving forward. The question is just how hungry is this team in its quest for a three-peat.

******* Brian’s projection:
This team is too good not to make it to at least the conference finals for a likely showdown with San Antonio. Phil Jackson has done a great job of cutting back on Bryant’s minutes from 38.8 last season to 33.9 this season for the sole purpose of keeping his legs fresh for the playoffs. If L.A. avoids the injury bug and continues its defensive commitment, it should win its third straight championship.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (46-36)
(200-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
The Hornets boast the best scoring defense in the Western Conference, and have committed the fewest turnovers among all West teams. Much of their success in these categories can be attributed to Chris Paul. The All-Star leads the NBA in both steals and assist-to-turnover margin, posting an amazing ratio nearing 4.5 assists per turnover. He has only played in two postseasons, but he made the most of those 17 games with 21.9 PPG on 48% FG, 80% FT, 4.8 RPG, 11.0 APG and just 2.7 turnovers per game (4.1 Ast/TO margin).

Emeka Okafor has averaged nearly a double-double this season (10.4 PPG, 9.6 RPG) and also blocks about two shots per game. Okafor also posted a career-best shooting performance this season, and the seven-year pro is eager to play his first career playoff game. Carl Landry has performed very well since his mid-season acquisition from Sacramento, and is eager to play more than his 18.2 minutes per game average in his first two postseason campaigns. Trevor Ariza is a streaky shooter who started heating up in his first four games of April (17.8 PPG on 53% FG), but finished the season 7-of-22 in his final three games. He helped the Lakers win the 2009 NBA Championship by scoring 11.3 PPG while shooting an excellent 48% (40-of-84) from three-point land.

Reasons they can’t:
New Orleans also has the lowest scoring offense in the conference, and no longer has the services of its leading scorer. David West (18.9 PPG, 51% FG, 7.9 RPG) suffered a season-ending knee injury in late March that has left a scoring void on the club. Monty Williams has done a nice job this season, but he is still a rookie coach who has a lot to learn about playoff basketball. The Hornets were only 27-25 in conference play, and 12-15 against West playoff teams.

******* Brian’s projection:
The Hornets are a quality team that could probably do a lot more damage in the East than in the stacked West. Their defense will keep them close in most games, but they don’t have the offensive firepower to hang with the likes of San Antonio, L.A. and Dallas, especially without David West.

******* Series Prediction: Lakers in five.
Even if Bynum isn’t 100 percent, the Lakers’ frontcourt will be too much for the Hornets big men. Factor in Kobe Bryant, and L.A. shouldn’t be tested too much.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 04:15 PM

NBA Playoff Preview: Oklahoma City-Denver

With the NBA regular season wrapping up on Wednesday, it’s time to look ahead to the postseason, which begins Saturday. To get you ready for the playoffs, we have analyzed all 16 playoff teams to determine just how long each would last in the postseason. Next up is the Thunder/Nuggets series.
Betting Odds are according to Sportsbook.com.

No. 4 seed OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER vs.
No. 5 seed DENVER NUGGETS
Series Schedule:
Game 1 at OKC: Sunday, 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 2 at OKC: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 3 at DEN: Saturday, April 23, 10:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Game 4 at DEN: Monday, April 25, 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 5 at OKC: Wednesday, April 27, TBD* (TBD)

Game 6 at DEN: Friday, April 29, TBD* (TBD)

Game 7 at OKC: Sunday, May 1, TBD* (TBD)
* If necessary

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (55-27)
(12-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
This is certainly not a team that can be taken lightly. The Thunder were playing their best basketball late in the season, going 14-2 in the month of March. They went 13-3 in their division and showed their resiliency with a 20-6 record following a straight-up loss. They were a top-six rebounding club in terms of RPG margin (+2.2 RPG), and despite their youth, the Thunder also led the NBA in free-throw percentage (82.3%).

The dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook averaged nearly 50 points per game this season at 49.6 PPG. Durant put up some nice numbers in his playoff debut last year against the Lakers (25.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG), but he only shot 35% FG and 29% FG on threes. Westbrook had a superb first postseason, scoring 20.5 PPG on 47% FG with 6.0 RPG and 6.0 APG. There are also other pieces in place besides these two. Kendrick Perkins averaged nearly eight rebounds per game after being traded from Boston and James Harden is a great scorer off the bench (12.2 PPG). Serge Ibaka improved greatly in his second season in all facets of the game, and he will be counted on to give quality minutes in the postseason.

Reasons they can’t:
In the past four seasons (including playoffs), Oklahoma City has a losing record versus all seven Western Conference playoff teams, combining for a 35-73 record (.324). The Thunder have very little playoff experience on their roster and head coach Scott Brooks only has six career playoff games under his belt. Like most young teams, they struggled on the road, losing to inferior teams when traveling outside of Oklahoma City.

******* Brian’s projection:
This team surprised many experts last season when they put a real scare into the Lakers and took them to six games before ultimately losing. Kevin Durant and Company won’t be sneaking up on anybody this season, but the Thunder played a notch below the top dogs in the conference. They are certainly talented enough to win their first-ever postseason series this year.

DENVER NUGGETS (50-32)
(30-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
Denver has been playing excellent basketball since trading Carmelo Anthony, going 17-6 (.739) in the 23 games immediately following the blockbuster deal. In that 23-game stretch, the Nuggets allowed just 96.0 PPG on 44% FG and 30% three-pointers. They were allowing 105.2 PPG on 46% FG and 35% three-pointers with Anthony on the roster. Denver has held its own with all of its fellow playoff teams out West, but especially versus Oklahoma City (11-5). No player is hotter than Ty Lawson, who scored a career-high 28 points on April 5, then crushed that mark with a 37-point explosion four days later on April 9 versus Minnesota. Lawson buried his first 10 three-pointers he attempted in that game, and also had seven rebounds and six assists. Nene Hilario leds the NBA in FG Pct. (61.5%) and is coming off a 2010 playoff campaign where he made 62.1% of his shot attempts. Kenyon Martin is another high-percentage shooter who averaged 10.0 PPG and 8.3 RPG in last year’s playoffs.

Reasons they can’t:
No team is more injured heading into the postseason than Denver is. The list of walking wounded includes: Danilo Gallinari (right ankle), Wilson Chandler (left ankle), Arron Afflalo (left hamstring), Chris "Birdman" Andersen (right ankle), Al Harrington (undisclosed) and Timofey Mozgov (left knee and ankle). This team is lacking a big-time star to carry this team to victory, and it has not played well on the road all season (17-24, .415).

******* Brian’s projection:
The Nuggets always have a great home-court advantage in the thin air (33-8 home record), and could certainly make life difficult for any playoff opponent. George Karl has seen it all and his team’s focus on defense will have Denver competitive in the first round. The Nuggets just have too many injuries and not enough star power to knock off any of the top four seeds in the Western Conference.

******* Series Prediction: Thunder in seven.
This is the only first-round matchup that features two elite teams, and in the end it’s going to come down to a star making some big shots. That star will be Kevin Durant.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 04:16 PM

NBA Playoff Preview: Boston-New York

With the NBA regular season wrapping up on Wednesday, it’s time to look ahead to the postseason, which begins Saturday. To get you ready for the playoffs, we have analyzed all 16 playoff teams to determine just how long each would last in the postseason. Next up is the Celtics/Knicks series.
Betting Odds are according to Sportsbook.com.

No. 3 seed BOSTON CELTICS vs.
No. 6 seed NEW YORK KNICKS
Series Schedule:
Game 1 at BOS: Sunday, 7:00 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 2 at BOS: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 3 at NY: Friday, April 22, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Game 4 at NY: Sunday, April 24, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Game 5 at BOS: Tuesday, April 26, TBD* (TBD)

Game 6 at NY: Friday, April 29, TBD* (TBD)

Game 7 at BOS: Sunday, May 1, TBD* (TBD)
* If necessary

BOSTON CELTICS (56-26)
(7-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
Boston allowed the fewest points in the NBA during the regular season and was 37-14 (73%) against Eastern Conference teams. The Celtics aren’t an explosive offensive team, as their scoring average ranks in the bottom third of the league, but they did lead the NBA in field-goal percentage (48.6%), and were tops in the East in assists (23.4 APG).

This is mainly thanks to Rajon Rondo who was the conference’s top passer this season at 11.2 APG. Rondo was a big key to Boston’s 2010 postseason run with 15.8 PPG, 9.3 APG and 1.9 SPG. Paul Pierce, who posted a career-best shooting percentage this season (49.7% FG), scored 18.8 PPG on 39.2% from three-point land in last year’s playoffs. But nobody shoots the rock like Ray Allen, the league’s all-time leader in three-pointers. Allen, who also posted a career-high 49.1% FG this season, has averaged 19.5 PPG and made 40.2% of his threes in his playoff career. But the key to this team’s playoff success could come down to how well inconsistent Kevin Garnett plays. Garnett, who turns 35 in May, has usually performed very well in the postseason, with career averages of 20.0 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 4.0 APG and 78% FT.

Reasons they can’t:
Boston’s inside game was supposed to be manned by the two O’Neals (Jermaine and Shaquille), but neither contributed much during the regular season due to injury. Shaq is day-to-day with a calf injury, but Jermaine was only able to play 18.8 minutes per game in April. Without these two big men, the Celtics were outrebounded by their opponents this season. Jeff Green and seven-footer Nenad Krstic have done all right since being traded by Oklahoma City, but Boston will miss Kendrick Perkins’ interior defense in the postseason.

******* Brian’s projection:
Boston is littered with playoff-tested veterans who know what it takes to win the NBA Championship. The Celtics are hungry after losing in Game 7 of the NBA Finals last year and have all the components for another championship run.

NEW YORK KNICKS (42-40)
(40-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
The Knicks have two of the top five scorers in the NBA as Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire have combined for 50.9 points per game. Anthony has been a scoring machine in his past two playoff campaigns, averaging 28.1 PPG on 46% FG and 84% FT, while adding 6.5 RPG and 3.9 APG. Stoudemire has also thrived in his past four postseasons with 25.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 1.8 BPG. Chauncey Billups has the reputation of hitting big shots in big games, but he has only connected on 41% FG during his 139-game playoff career. He has improved in the past two postseasons though, averaging 20.5 PPG on 45% FG. Toney Douglas ended his season on a high note with 12.4 PPG and 4.2 APG in the month of April. Head coach Mike D’Antoni led the Suns out of the first round in three of his four seasons and his offensive scheme is not easy to defend. New York is the highest-scoring offense (106.5 PPG) in the Eastern Conference by 4.4 PPG, but the Knicks also surrender the most points in the East (105.7 PPG).

Reasons they can’t:
New York hasn’t played in the postseason since 2004 and it hasn’t won a playoff game outright since April 29, 2001 at Toronto, going 0-6 since that victory. The Knicks have a losing record versus all other seven Eastern Conference playoff teams in the past four seasons, combining to go 35-69 (.337). This includes a 2-14 mark versus Boston and 3-12 record against Orlando. They are barely over .500 SU at home this season (23-18) and reside below .500 SU as an underdog (18-21). New York also has some injury concerns, as Stoudemire (ankle) and Billups (thigh) are not 100 percent healthy.

******* Brian’s projection:
The Knicks will create a lot of buzz and may even scare their opponent with a longer series than they would expect, but New York will be hard-pressed to advance to round two. The Knicks have hovered around .500 all year, and were 14-14 in the 28 games following the trade for Anthony.

******* Series Prediction: Celtics in seven.
The Knicks played Boston close three times this year, and with their shaky finish the Celtics should get a run for their money. Still, because of their postseason track record, Boston should prevail.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 04:17 PM

NBA Playoff Preview: Orlando-Atlanta

With the NBA regular season wrapping up on Wednesday, it’s time to look ahead to the postseason, which begins Saturday. To get you ready for the playoffs, we have analyzed all 16 playoff teams to determine just how long each would last in the postseason. Next up is the Magic/Hawks series.
Betting Odds are according to Sportsbook.com.

No. 4 seed ORLANDO MAGIC vs.
No. 5 seed ATLANTA HAWKS
Series Schedule:
Game 1 at ORL: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Game 2 at ORL: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV)

Game 3 at ATL: Friday, April 22, 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Game 4 at ATL: Sunday, April 24, 7:00 p.m. ET (TNT)

Game 5 at ORL: Tuesday, April 26, TBD* (TBD)

Game 6 at ATL: Thursday, April 28, TBD* (TBD)

Game 7 at ORL: Saturday, April 30, TBD* (TNT)
* If necessary

ORLANDO MAGIC (52-30)
(20-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
Over the past four seasons (including playoffs), the Magic have a winning record against each of the other seven Eastern Conference playoff teams. Orlando’s combined record in these games is a superb 88-40 (.688). The Magic were 10-5 against the Bulls, who will be their second-round opponent should both teams win round one.

The Magic continue to lean on monster big man Dwight Howard who posted a career-best 22.9 PPG average this season. Howard’s production hasn’t faded in the playoffs, as he has posted 19.0 PPG, 60% FG, 14.2 RPG and 2.9 BPG in his four-year postseason career. Jameer Nelson, who posted a career-best in assists during the regular season (6.0 APG), pumped in 19.0 PPG on 48% FG in last year’s playoffs. An unsung hero for Orlando could be Gilbert Arenas who scored 25 points on 6-of-11 threes in a win at Charlotte on April 6, when he started in place of Jason Richardson. Arenas was always a great scorer in the postseason, averaging 24.2 PPG in his 20 career playoff games. Orlando is not a team that needs a lot of rest, evidenced by its 34-14 record (.708) with one day’s rest.

Reasons they can’t:
Orlando was barely above .500 in road games this season (23-18), and posted a league-worst free-throw percentage (69.2%), mostly due to Howard’s foul-line bricklaying (59.6%). Speaking of missing shots, J.J. Redick has made only 39.6% of his FG attempts over his past two playoff campaigns. This is a very streaky team that won six straight in late November, then lost eight of nine before ripping off a nine-game win streak. The Magic also don’t play particularly well against the few teams actually better than they are. Orlando was 3-8 SU (4-6-1 ATS) as an underdog this season.

******* Brian’s projection:
Not many people are expecting the Magic to make a deep run in the playoffs, but Stan Van Gundy is the best head coach in the conference and he will have his team ready to play in every game. They may not beat the Bulls in the second round, but the Magic will certainly not go quietly.

ATLANTA HAWKS (44-38)
(200-to-1 odds to win NBA Finals)

Reasons they can win:
When this team is focused, it can hang with the best squads the East has to offer. Since the 2007-08 season, Atlanta is 9-5 versus Chicago and 12-11 against Miami. Josh Smith (knee) and Jason Collins (ankle) have gotten plenty of rest down the stretch to keep them fresh for the playoffs. Smith is second on the team in both points and rebounds, while leading the Hawks in both steals and blocks.

Joe Johnson has seen a drop in numbers across the boards, but he still leads the team in scoring and always fills out the stat sheet in numerous categories. He averaged 17.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG and 5.0 APG in the 2010 playoffs, but only shot 38.7% FG and 9-for-41 from downtown (22.0%). Al Horford continues to improve each and every year, as he increased his scoring and shooting averages for the third straight season. Horford averaged 14.6 PPG and 9.0 RPG, while shooting 52% FG and 84% FT during last year’s playoffs. Kirk Hinrich has been shooting the three-ball at an impressive clip (42%) since being traded to Atlanta. He also shot lights out from three-point range in the past two postseasons, going 21-for-46 (46%). Jamal Crawford has had a down year in just about every statistical category, but he still provides instant offense off the bench, and had 16.3 PPG in last year’s playoffs.

Reasons they can’t:
Although the Eastern Conference has plenty of green coaches, Larry Drew just finished his first season as an NBA head coach. Drew’s first order of business will be to figure out how to win on the road in the playoffs as his team is 2-19 in its past 21 postseason road games. If Josh Smith’s knee is still bothering him, this team takes a big hit. Smith has made just 43.6% FG (17.9% on threes) in his playoff career and only scored 14.1 PPG last postseason.

******* Brian’s projection:
The Hawks certainly have the overall talent to put a scare in most teams in the conference, but they haven’t shown the consistent excellence that is necessary to thrive in the postseason.

******* Series Prediction: Magic in six.
Orlando has such a huge advantage in coaching and at the center position with Dwight Howard. Don’t be surprised to see all of these games to be decided by five points or less.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2011, 11:06 AM

76ers a big Game 1 underdog at Miami

PHILADELPHIA 76ers

at MIAMI HEAT

Tip-off: Saturday, 3:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -10.5, Total: 190.5

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are both playoff tested, with James carrying a weak Cavs supporting cast to the 2007 NBA Finals, and Wade winning Finals MVP in 2006. After Wade returned from a bruised hip, Miami dominated their last three opponents to clinch the 2-seed (a nine-point win over Charlotte, 23-point win over Boston and eight-point road win in Atlanta). They were the NBA’s third-most efficient offensive team and fifth-most efficient defensive team despite working in new faces throughout the season. Mike Bibby (45.5% from three in 22 games with Miami) has stepped up. They scored easy wins in all three match-ups with Philadelphia this season, and quietly compiled the best road record in the East (28-13).

The 76ers appear to be out-manned in this matchup and don’t have the kind of low-post strength to take advantage of Miami’s biggest weakness. They don’t get to the free throw line often and don’t have the kind of perimeter shooting to outscore Miami, and with the shortened rotations of the postseason, Philly’s bench won’t be able to make a major impact against Miami’s second unit. First-year head coach Doug Collins did do an effective job, however, of using Philadelphia’s ‘tweener-heavy personnel this year. Elton Brand emerged as a serviceable player again, and Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala have meshed nicely. Philly has one of the best benches of the postseason teams, with Louis Williams providing instant offense and Thaddeus Young becoming a force playing his more natural power forward spot this season. That should be enough, at least, to keep this game a competitive one.

The FoxSheets agree with that assessment and have a few trends that play in the 76ers’ favor against the double-digit Game 1 spread, including this one:

Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. (42-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2011, 11:07 AM

Mavs and Blazers meet in Game 1

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

at DALLAS MAVERICKS

Tip-off: Saturday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -5, Total: 186

This Mavs supporting cast is the best Dirk Nowitzki has had in years, and they entered the playoffs with a fresher Jason Kidd. Tyson Chandler has made them a better defensive rebounding team and Shawn Marion has settled into an energy role. Jason Terry and J.J. Barea give them an edge over opposing second-unit guards. After returning from a neck injury in late March, Peja Stojakovic hit 49.1% of his threes over his final 12 games. He needs to keep up that kind of pace because this is a team that relies heavily on jump shooting: Dallas was one of only four NBA squads to take more than 60% of their shots from outside 10 feet during the 2010-11 regular season.

The Blazers, meanwhile, finished strong, winning five of their last six meaningful games, including home wins over Oklahoma City, Dallas and the Lakers. They’ve meshed nicely since inserting Gerald Wallace into the starting lineup and bringing Marcus Camby off the bench. But with Brandon Roy a shadow of his former self, this team lacks a true shot maker. LaMarcus Aldridge will get his points, but Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum, who have been role players on postseason teams (Batum for Portland and Matthews for Utah last year), will have to take and make some big shots.

It’s not an easy call, but the FoxSheets show a two-star trend in the Mavericks’ favor:

DALLAS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. The average score was DALLAS 102.8, OPPONENT 96.2 - (Rating = 2*)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2011, 11:10 AM

Hawks and Magic in NBA playoff betting rematch

Atlanta and Orlando collide in the NBA Playoffs for the second consecutive season, but the Hawks are hoping for a vastly different outcome. Last year's second-round series was completely one-sided, with the Magic sweeping Atlanta and winning the games by an average of 25 points.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds lists Orlando as eight-point home ‘chalk’ over Atlanta, with Game 1's total set at 179 ½.

The Magic are also installed as decided minus 600 favorites to win this series, while the Hawks are a plus-475 underdog.

ESPN will provide coverage of Saturday’s series opener beginning at 4:00 p.m. PT from Orlando’s Amway Center.

The good news for fifth-seed Atlanta (44-28 straight up, 37-45 against the spread) is it went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS versus Orlando this season. The Hawks were a dismal 2-10 SU the previous 12 encounters with the Magic.

The ‘under’ is also a stellar 9-1 the past 10 games in this series, and 19-7 the previous 26 meetings.

The bad news for Atlanta is the fact that the team ended the regular season by losing its last six games SU, and final five ATS. That marks the Hawks' longest SU losing skid the past three years.

Atlanta concluded the regular campaign with Wednesday’s setback to Charlotte as a 1 ½-point road underdog, 96-85. The combined 181 points failed to topple the 192-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest. The ‘under’ is now 11-4 in Atlanta’s last 15 road endeavors.

The Hawks rested many of their starters to remain fresh for the playoffs, and finished the contest by shooting 43 percent (34-of-79) from the field and a dismal 1-of-8 from behind the arc. Both teams grabbed 37 rebounds, while Atlanta was on the short end of assists, 27-16.

Backup center Josh Powell paced the offense with 16 points and five rebounds, while forward Damien Wilkins provided 14 and four. Guard Jamal Crawford accounted for 14 in the setback, while guard Kirk Hinrich had 10.

Fourth-seed Orlando (52-30 SU, 35-46-1 ATS) finished the regular season eight games ahead of Atlanta in the Southeast Division standings. The Magic concluded the regular season by going 4-1 SU and ATS their last five games.

Orlando cruised past Indiana Wednesday as a 5 ½-point home favorite, 92-74, while the combined 166 points never seriously threatened the 193-point closing total. The ‘under’ has cashed their last two outings, and the ‘under’ is now 20-6 their previous 26 home contests.

The Magic dominated the Pacers on the glass, 55-35, while also recording more points in the paint, 34-18, and delivering more assists, 17-16. Orlando finished the contest by shooting 44 percent (32-of-73) from the field, and 31 percent 8-of-26) from 3-point land.

Power forward Ryan Anderson posted 14 points and seven rebounds in the victory, while center Dwight Howard provided 13 and 13. Small forward Hedo Turkoglu accounted for 13 and five, while forward Brandon Bass had 12 and six.

Atlanta center Jason Collins (ankle injury) is ‘probable’ for Saturday’s contest versus the Magic. Orlando guard Gilbert Arenas (knee) and forward Brandon Bass (Achilles) are ‘probable’ against the Hawks, while guard JJ Redick (abdominal) is ‘questionable.’

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The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

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