The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

[Dat Boi E]

good luck!

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Bulls visit Hawks with series tied

The Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls look to take control of their second-round series as the scene shifts to Georgia on Friday night.

The Don Best odds screen has Chicago as 2 ½-point road favorites with a total of 178 points. ESPN will tip-off its doubleheader coverage at 4:00 p.m. (PT) with the L.A. Lakers at Dallas following.

The Hawks surprised everyone in Monday’s Game 1 opener, a 103-95 win as 9 ½-point underdogs. They were supposed to be devastated by the loss of point guard Kirk Hinrich, but the unheralded Jeff Teague started in his place and acquitted himself nicely, especially guarding Derrick Rose. Joe Johnson led Atlanta with 34 points.

Game 2 on Wednesday was a must-win for the Bulls and they responded with an 86-73 triumph, ‘covering’ the lofty nine-point spread. Both teams shot less than 40 percent from the floor and Chicago was able to hold off a late Atlanta run that cut the lead to six (77-71) with four minutes remaining.

The measly 159 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 180 ½-point total. The 198 points in Game 1 went way ‘over’ the 177 ½-point number.

It was just the third Chicago ‘cover’ in the playoffs in seven games after struggling with Indiana. Atlanta dropped to a still-impressive 6-2 against the spread after its opening series with Orlando.

Injuries have been a big part of this series – for both teams. Hinrich (hamstring) is likely out the whole series and Teague has been a godsend, scoring a team-high 21 points last game. His emergence has allowed coach Larry Drew to keep Jamal Crawford in his sixth-man role. Crawford scored just 11 points last game, but he’s usually instant-offense off the bench.

Chicago’s power forward Carlos Boozer (turf toe) is listed as probable Friday. He’s clearly less than 100 percent at 11 PPG this series. League MVP Rose has hurt his ankle twice already in the playoffs and is just 21-of-54 (38.9 percent) from the floor this series, although scoring 24.5 PPG. He also committed eight turnovers last game.

The Bulls’ offense definitely takes a big hit with both Rose and Boozer hurting. Luol Deng is a quality scorer and he’s averaging 17.5 PPG this series. Joakim Noah is good for some hustle points, but there’s no one else who can be relied upon.

Atlanta’s offense has suffered a power outage up front. Marvin Williams, Josh Smith and Al Horford are the starters, but they’ve combined for just 45 total points in the two games. That puts way too much pressure on the backcourt, especially with the Cinderella Teague ready to turn back into a pumpkin at any moment.

This is essentially a six-man rotation for Atlanta right now with big men Zaza Pachulia and Jason Collins getting few minutes. Drew doesn’t like the matchup of his burly reserves against the quicker Chicago big men. The Hawks need to stay out of foul trouble and avoid any more injuries in this series or they could be in trouble.

The Hawks now return home where they were 24-17 SU and 16-25 ATS during the regular season. They were 3-0 SU and ATS at home against Orlando in the first round, winning all three games by four points or less as exactly 1 ½-point ‘dogs.

The ‘under’ went 3-0 in those games and is 8-0 in Atlanta’s last eight home games overall.

The Bulls were a very good road team during the regular season (26-15 SU and 25-16 ATS). They went 1-1 SU and ATS in the two games in Indiana, with the ‘under’ going 2-0.

The two clubs will take Saturday off before reconvening at Philips Arena for Game 4 on Sunday. TNT has that prime-time telecast starting at 5:00 p.m. (PT).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Stunned LA Lakers head to Dallas

The Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in a shocking 2-0 deficit as they head to the Dallas Mavericks for Game 3 on Friday night.

Los Angeles is a two-point road underdog on the Don Best odds screen with a total of 186 ½-points. The Lakers are also plus 230 ‘dogs in the series now with Dallas minus 270.

This is the second half on an ESPN doubleheader at 6:30 p.m. (PT). Chicago at Atlanta is up first and knotted at 1-1.

Dallas took the series opener on Monday 96-94 as six-point underdogs. It rallied from a 16-point deficit in the third quarter and ended the game on a 9-2 run. Dirk Nowitzki had 28 points, including four in the final 40 seconds.

The result was surprising as it’s usually Kobe Bryant who takes over late in games, but optimism still reigned. After all, the Lakers dropped the opener to New Orleans last round before bouncing back and couldn’t possibly lose both home games to Dallas – right?

Wrong!

The Mavericks made a huge statement on Wednesday with a 93-81 win as seven-point underdogs. The Lakers’ offense scored a paltry 32 points in the second half and was outdone again in the fourth with a 9-0 Dallas spurt to put the game out of reach.

The 174 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 188-point Game 2 total. The 190 points in the opener went ‘over’ the same 188-point total.

Only three times in NBA history has a team come back in a seven-game series after losing the first two at home.

Los Angeles (61-29 straight-up, 42-47-1 against the spread) must turnaround some bad trends in a hurry. Pau Gasol is not being aggressive enough inside, averaging 14 PPG this series while being abused by Nowitzki at the other end. Ron Artest has 13 total points and could be suspended Friday after a clothesline on Jose Barea.

Losing Artest would be huge. He’s always capable of coming up with a big game, both offensively and defensively. More minutes would be needed from bench players Lamar Odom and Shannon Brown. The Lakers bench has been a weak spot this series, getting outscored a total of 70-37.

Coach Phil Jackson’s team went just 2-of-20 (10 percent) from three-point land last game. That certainly won’t stretch the defense and allow more inside opportunities for Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

Dallas (63-27 SU, 51-36-3 ATS) is feeling good, but not overconfident. It blew the 2006 NBA Finals to the Heat after winning the first two games. The big difference was those wins were at home, having to play the next three in Miami.

The Mavericks seemed jinxed after losing that Finals, winning just one playoff series from 2007-2010. Their resurgence started with an opening round win (4-2) over Portland this year and is continuing so far this series.

Coach Rick Carlisle’s team returns home where it was 29-12 SU and 19-20-3 ATS during the regular season. The home success rate against Portland was much better at 3-0 SU and ATS.

Dallas is getting a balanced effort offensively this series outside of Nowitzki (26 PPG). Shawn Marion and Jason Terry are both at 12 PPG, while Barea is at 10 PPG. Terry is the most capable of stepping up if Nowitzki has a bad game, but it’s hard to see Dallas winning any contest (home or away) without the ‘Big German’ scoring at least 20.

Los Angeles went 2-1 SU and ATS at New Orleans in Round 1. That includes the Game 6 clincher, a 98-80 blowout as 5 ½-point favorites. Dallas and L.A. split the two regular season meetings in Texas.

The Don Best injury report NBA Injuries Updated Reports - DonBest.com has Odom (arm) as probable. Bryant is not listed, but his ankle looks to be affecting him as he continues to take most of his shots outside of 10 feet.

Game 4 in Dallas will be Sunday with the Lakers either right back in the series or facing an unthinkable sweep.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: ‘Over’ making comeback in Round 2

The NBA playoffs are only at the beginning of the second round, but we’ve already seen big trends develop against the spread and the total.

The total made big noise in the opening round with the ‘under’ going 25-17-1 (59.5 percent). Memphis against San Antonio was the only one of the eight series that leaned ‘over’ at 4-2. Atlanta versus Orlando was the heaviest ‘under’ matchup at 5-1.

The second round has been vastly different with the ‘over’ going 6-0. That’s pending the Wednesday night games of Atlanta at Chicago (179 ½-point total) and Dallas at the L.A. Lakers (187-point total).

The ‘over’ may be 6-0 this round, but the scoring hasn’t been that high. Only two of the six games have broken the 200-point barrier, both in the Memphis and Oklahoma City series.

Scoring has been down overall in these playoffs with 14 of the 16 teams averaging 97.4 PPG or below. Compare that to the regular season when only six of the 30 teams scored below that figure.

Favorites look to gain footing

The underdog was the other big winner in the first round, going 25-15-1 ATS (62.5 percent). Atlanta was a ‘dog against Orlando in all six games and ‘covered’ in five of them.

The favorites are 3-3 ATS so far in Round 2. Miami has done its part by going 2-0 ATS as home favorites over Boson, also winning both games. The series switches to Boston on Saturday, with the veteran Celtics using the extra rest to help save their season. The long-awaited return of Shaquille O’Neal (calf) would also help.

Atlanta and Dallas both won outright as underdogs in Game 1’s respectively at Chicago and the Lakers. Atlanta is an 8 ½-point underdog in Game 2 tonight, while Dallas is getting seven-points.

A miracle in Memphis

The Memphis Grizzlies came into these playoffs with little expectations. Not only were they an eighth seed going up against powerful San Antonio, but they had never won a playoff game in franchise history (0-12 SU).

Memphis shocked the world by beating the Spurs in six games. The combination of Zach Randolph at power forward and Marc Gasol at center is arguably the best inside duo in these playoffs. The Grizzlies are doing this all without Rudy Gay, who was a 19.8 PPG scorer before getting injured (shoulder) NBA Injuries Updated Reports - DonBest.com in February.

Coach Lionel Hollins is also getting things done from an ATS perspective. As seen from the table below, Memphis is second among remaining playoff teams at 6-1-1 ATS. Atlanta and Dallas have also paid off handsomely, with Boston and Chicago bringing up the rear.

Memphis split the first two games of its series with Oklahoma City. A 114-102 road win on Sunday was followed by a 111-102 loss on Tuesday in Game 2. The Grizzlies return home for a Saturday contest (listed as early 3 ½-point favorites) where they’re 3-0 SU and ATS this postseason.

Here's a quick glance at how all eight teams in the second round have fared during the playoffs (through May 3):

•Dallas Mavericks 6-0-1 ATS
•Memphis Grizzlies 6-1-1 ATS
•Atlanta Hawks 6-1 ATS
•Miami Heat 4-3 ATS
•Oklahoma City Thunder 3-3-1 ATS
•Los Angeles Lakers 3-4 ATS
•Boston Celtics 2-4 ATS
•Chicago Bulls 2-4 ATS

[StarDust Bum]

Bettors still believe in Lakers

May 5, 2011


Nothing against the Memphis/Oklahoma City and Chicago/Atlanta series, but the two series that have everyone’s attention in both viewership and money wagered are the other two matchups. The NBA’s dream matchup for the Finals of the two-time defending champion Lakers and America’s favorite team to hate, the Miami Heat, is in major jeopardy of not happening thanks to the Lakers tanking game two in an unispired 93-81 loss to the Mavericks.

We’ve been saying all year that the Lakers can turn it on when they want. While that still may be true, they backed themselves into to a hole where the switch is going to be a little harder to flip as their odds are diminishing based on history. Only three out of 18 teams that have been down 2-0 at home have ever come back to win a best-of-seven series. However, the way the Las Vegas sports books have posted up the adjusted series price, it appears that many believe the Lakers have a chance just because the price is so low.

Following the Lakers loss I talked with Las Vegas Hilton Super Book assistant manger Jeff Sherman, who is a die-hard Lakers fan, and we discussed the adjusted series price number he might hang today. Sherman‘s mood was distraught, as if he had just came back from a funeral, as if the case for Lakers fans across the west coast.

We thought the true number should be in the range of the Mavericks -330 to -360, but acknowledged that the number wouldn’t be that high just because of public sentiment all wanting to take the Lakers at chunky prices of +270 to +290. The high number is what the price should be, but supply and demand at the bet windows play a huge role in settling on a price.

The Lakers fan case for them coming back goes somewhat like this: They had the second best road record in the NBA, with Dallas being the best. They have a cold blooded assassin in Kobe Bryant who thrives in the crunch on the road. They out rebounded the Mavericks in both games and even had less turnovers than Dallas in game 2. They’re only one Pau Gasol appearance away from making the series 2-1.

The Hilton eventually posted the Mavericks as a -260/+220 favorite after sorting through all the possible remaining game lines, while mixing in the public perception factor just to see where their first action would be.

If just looking at the Miami/Boston series -- a situation that is almost like the Lakers but worse considering the Celtics get to climb out of the 0-2 hole at home -- we see that there is a drastic difference in price with the Heat being -750. Even though the Heat soundly beat the Celtics, the odds shouldn’t be so far off from each other. Yet supply and demand, again, holds a drastically different opinion on the two series. Lakers fans still feel they can come back and win while Boston fans realistically see the writing on the wall. How in the world do you get anyone to bet the Celtics in this series to offset Heat money?

Simply by jacking up the price.

Sherman and I both agreed last night that anything less than -300 on the Mavericks would be extreme value. Sure, the Lakers could win both games in Dallas and tie it up, but it’s more likely that we see a split with the Lakers having to win the final three games of the series to cash a ticket on them.

The cold hard truth about the Lakers is that they are starting to look very old, kind of like the Celtics. They‘ve missed 20 free-throws in the two games and we‘re 0-for-18 in game two 3-point shots until making two meaningless 3’s at the end. They we’re lifeless, looked like they didn’t want to be there and they’re point guard situation never looked worse.

The Hilton adjusted their future prices to win the NBA title with the Heat now being a 3-to-2 favorite after the Lakers collapse. The Mavericks moved up to 9-to-2 and have become the favorites to win the western conference. The lowly Lakers are now 6-to-1. Despite being in a similar situation as Los Angeles, the Celtics are now 18-to-1 to win it all.

Right now, the value play is on the Mavericks to win the series. I also like Oklahoma City to win their series against Memphis and then I like the Thunder to beat Dallas in the west finals. The Hilton is currently offering 5-to-2 on the Thunder to win the west which looks to be a very inviting price.

I was looking forward to a Lakers-Heat Finals like most everyone else, but that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. It’s funny, we’ve come full circle with the Heat index this year like a boomerang, starting fast, slowing down, making the turn and coming home down the stretch with a fury. All the experts said they would win initially, then backed off because of team turmoil and chemistry issues, but now the Heat are right back on track and look every bit like a championship team should.

The only hope Lakers fans may have now is that some of the things former NBA official Tim Donaghy said about commissioner David Stern hold true. Most notably being how Stern allegedly told officials to assist in playoff outcomes to create better matchups, the matchups fans wanted most, for the next rounds.

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers are in trouble

May 5, 2011


Are the Lakers in trouble vs. Dallas?

You bet they are.

There is an interesting Phil Jackson playoff angle of which few Laker fans are aware or take time to acknowledge, and another reason why LA is suddenly in quicksand in this series vs. Dallas, a factor even beyond the current 0-2 deficit.

Unless the Lakers win the next three games of this series, there is a very good chance they will face a close-out game for the Mavericks AT DALLAS at some point in the series.

In similar scenarios as LA's head coach, on the road and the host team in a close-out situation, Phil Jackson is 0-4 since winning Game Seven in OT at Sacramento in the very controversial 2002 West Finals. Follow along...

Game Five, 2004 Finals at Detroit... The Lakers are down 3-1 to Detroit and are routed, 100-87, a game far more one-sided than the final score. The Lakers quit in the 3rd quarter of this game when the Pistons took complete control.

Game Seven, 2006 First Round at Phoenix... After threatening a major upset in the first round, the Lakers completely fold in Game Seven at Phoenix, routed 121-90, a game in which Kobe Bryant's petulance was never more evident as he refused to shoot when the game began to slip away. An embarrassing performance.

Game Five, 2007 First Round at Phoenix... LA was outclassed in this series, so no real shame in losing Game Five to the favored Suns. The Lakers were never really in this game, although they notched a narrow pointspread cover as a 10 1/2-point underdog in an eventual 119-110 loss (Jackson's only such cover in these close-out games for the host opponent). Certainly no special effort from the Lakers as the Suns handily close out the series.

Game Six, 2008 Finals at Boston... Laker fans have erased this one from their memory banks. To refresh them, the final was 131-92 Celtics, another quit job similar to 2004 vs. the Pistons and 2006 vs. the Suns.

In a related game, in Game Six of 2003 West playoffs vs. San Antonio, the Lakers lost 110-82, another abject surrender, although that game was at home. To the Lakers' credit, they did avoid losing close-out games for the Celtics last season when winning Games Six and Seven of the Finals at Staples Center, needing a lot of help from the refs in the last game. But the dynamics of last June's Boston series were a bit different; when the Celtics won, they were simply outexecuting the Lakers, not overwhelming them.

The bigger point is that when the Lakers have exited the playoffs under Jackson, they usually go out with a thud, and eventually surrendering without offering much of a fight. Is the same happening in the Dallas series?

Consider that the Lakers have usually been in control for most of their playoff series under Jackson. They have avoided being closed out a few times over the years when at home (besides Boston last year, Houston in 2009 comes to mind in a pure homecourt series), but they have never been able to dig deep enough on the road when facing a close-out game for the host. The collapses in most of those losses (plus the home loss to S.A. in 2003) are eerily similar, and might speak to something in the character of Jackson's teams. In the few times the Jackson Lakers teams, with their usual overwhelming talent edge, have looked overmatched, they have laid down their arms and surrendered meekly. We saw some of that in Game Two vs. Dallas, especially the frustration illustrated by Ron Artest's ejection for the clothesline on J.J. Barea in the last minute. We must wonder if more might be on the way. The Jackson Lakers have also never rallied from an 0-2 deficit to win a series, and only three NBA teams in history have rallied from 0-2 after losing the first two games at home.

Mostly, it has been easy for the Lakers to dominate in recent seasons, or during Shaq's title years, with their overwhelming talent advantage. But the Jackson Laker teams, especially the 2004 and 2008 editions, often exhibited bully tendencies, and reacted accordingly when the walls began to close around them in the final games of the playoffs in those years.

Sources around the league have suggested from last fall that this Jackson edition is more vulnerable than the recent title winners. The brilliance of Kobe, Pau Gasol's effectiveness, and Lamar Odom's occasional bursts of explosiveness cannot camouflage all of the issues. Most of the key components on the team are on the far side of 30 years old. They're slower than past seasons. The Lakers are being exposed in this series because their reliable scoring options beyond Kobe and maybe Gasol are very erratic. The outside shooting has been suspect all season, the bench is not up to past strength, and the team generates very few transition buckets. Dallas is one of the few teams with the size to match the Lakers' bigs, and LA (like most teams) has no matchup for Dirk Nowitzki. This is a very deep Mavs team and obviously has no fear of the Lakers.

It hasn't happened often since Jackson arrived in the 1999-2000 season (remember, he was "retired" for trhe 2004-05 campaign when the Lake Show missed the playoffs under Rudy Tomjanovich and Frank Hamblen in the first season after Shaq's trade), but like a bully that is used to having its own way, Jackson's LA teams have always acted the same way when meeting their match. There is a big difference between how Dallas is dealing with the Lakers, and how Boston did a year ago. We have not seen a Jackson Lakers team look as out of sorts in a series since the 2004 Finals vs. Detroit, and we know how that one concluded.

Granted, the Mavericks will be the first to tell you that this series isn't over. They're saying all of the right things, such as Jason Kidd dismissing Charles Barkley's "the series is over" comments after Game Two. Which suggests that Dallas is unlikely to suffer from any sort of overconfidence as the series continues. But something has to change, and quickly, for the Lakers to get back in this series. There's a good chance Barkley is going to be proven correct after all.

Perhaps the Lakers dig in and rally back in this series. But if they do, it would be a first under Phil Jackson. History shows that in these rare circumstances, Jackson and the Lakers are more likely to surrender.

Meekly.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 5, 2011

First Round Results

Second Round Results


Favorites are 4-4 straight up
Favorites are 4-4 against the spread
The 'over' is 6-2
Home teams are 4-4

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Memphis (+6.5) Oklahoma City 114-101 UNDERDOG OVER 195
Boston Miami (-5) 99-90 FAVORITE OVER 181

Monday, May 2
Atlanta (+9) Chicago 103-95 UNDERDOG OVER 177.5
Dallas (+6) L.A. Lakers 96-94 UNDERDOG OVER 188.5

Tuesday, May 3
Boston Miami (-5) 102-91 FAVORITE OVER 181
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6.5) 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 197.5

Wednesday, May 4
Atlanta Chicago (-8.5) 86-73 FAVORITE UNDER 181
Dallas (+7) L.A. Lakers 93-81 UNDERDOG UNDER 188

Friday, May 6
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Saturday, May 7
Oklahoma City Memphis
Miami Boston

Sunday, May 8
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Monday, May 9
Miami Boston
Memphis Oklahoma City

Tuesday, May 10
Atlanta Chicago
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, May 11
Boston Miami
Memphis Oklahoma City

Thursday, May 12
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Friday, May 12
Miami Boston
Oklahoma City Memphis

Sunday, May 15
Atlanta Chicago
Memphis Oklahoma City
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Monday, May 16
Boston Miami




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Hawks host Bulls in Game 3 on Friday night

CHICAGO BULLS

at ATLANTA HAWKS


NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -2.5, Total: 178

The Atlanta Hawks play their franchise’s most significant home game since 1997 when they host Chicago in Game 3 of an Eastern Conference Semifinal series tied at 1-1. In that ’97 playoff season, the Bulls came into Atlanta tied 1-1, but proceeded to win the next three games as Michael Jordan eventually won his fifth NBA title.

Atlanta has been able to put itself in a 1-1 scenario with an outstanding Game 1 win, 103-95. The Hawks shot 51.3% FG that night and were only out-rebounded 46-45. Wednesday’s Game 2 was much different story, as Atlanta made just 33.8% of its shots and was dominated on the glass, 67-44. Chicago won that game 86-73, holding the Hawks to 30 points below their Game 1 output.

The Bulls continue to be led by Derrick Rose, who scored a game-high 25 points in Game 2, but needed 27 shots to do so. Hawks backup point guard Jeff Teague, who is filling in for injured starter Kirk Hinrich, has done a great job in keeping Rose out of the paint and forcing the league MVP to settle for jump shots. Rose is shooting 21-for-54 (38.9% FG) in the series, and has only gotten to the line six times in the two games. Rose had 10 assists in Game 2, but turned the ball over eight times. Another star Chicago player struggling in the series has been Carlos Boozer, who has been bothered by a turf toe injury. Boozer is averaging 11.0 PPG on 43.5% FG in the series, which is well below his regular-season numbers of 17.5 PPG on 51.0% FG. The two Bulls that starred in Game 2 were Joakim Noah (19 points, 14 rebounds) and Luol Deng (14 points, 12 boards) who have been consistently great all season.

The Hawks will need much better performances from Jamal Crawford and Al Horford in Game 3 to take the series lead. Crawford scored just 11 points on 2-of-10 shooting in Game 2, while Horford scored six points, going 3-of-12 from the floor. Teague (5.2 PPG in regular season) led his team in scoring with 21 points (7-14 FG) in Game 2, while Joe Johnson continued his strong play in the postseason with 16 points on 7-of-15 shooting. Johnson had 34 points in Game 1 of this series and has connected on 46.2% of his three-pointers in this postseason.

Chicago has done a great job on the road this season, going 26-17 ATS (61%) as the visitor, while the Hawks are just 19-25 ATS (43%) at home this season. But the Bulls haven’t had recent success in Atlanta. After winning six straight games at Philips Arena from 2005 to 2007, Chicago lost its next five visits there. But the last meeting in Atlanta was complete dominance by the Bulls, who out-rebounded the Hawks 52-31 and out-shot them 54.4% to 45.3% in a 114-81 blowout win on March 22. I certainly don’t expect another lopsided win in Game 3, but I think Chicago will easily be able to cover the small spread, with another significant advantage on the boards.

The following two FoxSheets trends also back the Bulls on Friday night:

CHICAGO is 31-13 ATS (70.5%, +16.7 Units) after playing a home game this season. The average score was CHICAGO 99.4, OPPONENT 88.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. (54-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +27.6 units. Rating = 2*).

Both of these teams have played a lot of low-scoring games recently, as the Under is 9-4 in the past 13 Chicago games and 9-2 in the past 11 Atlanta contests. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes the Under for Game 3

.ATLANTA is 22-7 UNDER (75.9%, +14.3 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The average score was ATLANTA 86.4, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers in rare underdog role for Game 3 in Dallas

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

at DALLAS MAVERICKS


NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Semifinals
Game 3 – Dallas leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Friday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2.5, Total: 186

If panic and desperation were like pure gold, the Los Angeles Lakers could put Fort Knox out of business. Trailing 0-2 in their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal playoff series, the Lakers are by no means showing or sounding the profile of a team that has been to the NBA Finals three straight years. Andrew Bynum said after the Game 2 loss that his team has “trust issues” that are ”deeply rooted.” In somewhat of a response to that comment, Lakers great Magic Johnson tweeted on Thursday that Bynum should've kept his mouth shut. Kobe Bryant kept his mouth open as he tried to downplay the desperation angle. “Desperate, that's a strong word," Bryant said. "I think when you play desperate you don't play your best basketball. What we need to do is relax, focus on what we're doing wrong and the mistakes that we're making." If focusing and relaxing is part of a new approach, the defending champions will have to incorporate it without forward Ron Artest for Game 3 on Friday night. Artest was suspended one game without pay for his foul on Mavericks guard Jose Juan Barea with 24.4 seconds remaining in Game 2. It was a senseless play at a meaningless point of a 93-81 defeat that could have a very meaningful impact on Game 3. When asked Wednesday night what he would do to get his team to snap out of its 0-2 funk, coach Phil Jackson jokingly suggested “flogging them.” If L.A. doesn’t pick up its performance Friday night from the very start, the Mavericks might do the flogging, and the whooping, themselves.

The Lakers have appeared to be lethargic at times and undone at others. In Game 2 they shot 41% from the floor and an atrocious 10% from beyond the arc. After Bryant, who had 23 points on 9-of-20 shooting, the guard play was highly insufficient as Derek Fisher scored just four points in 32 minutes, while backup Steve Blake went scoreless, and totaled one assist in 20 minutes of play. The Lakers bench shot 6-for-23 for the game, generating just 12 points. By comparison, Mavs reserve guard Barea nearly outscored the Lakers bench by himself. As it was, his 12 points led a Mavericks bench attack that outscored the Lake Show 30-12. Barea weaved through the Lakers defense at will to create his own offense and to find open shooters, as the Mavericks high-screen-and-rolls with Dirk Nowitzki and Barea forced the Lakers big men to venture away from the hoop and defend in space, a defensive alternative they clearly were uncomfortable doing. Still, whatever Barea was executing was Plan B. Plan A for Dallas is still about getting Nowitzki unleashed, which Dallas was able to do again, as the big forward finished with 24 points and seven boards. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom have struggled to slow down Nowitzki. Meanwhile the big man combo of Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood has made the perceived advantage of Bynum and Gasol versus the Mavs less than daunting. While Bynum and Gasol both had double-doubles (18 points/13 boards and 13 points/10 rebounds respectively), Chandler and Haywood held their own, combining for 11 points and 15 boards.

Three times in NBA history a team has rallied back after losing the first two games on its home floor to win a best-of-seven series, so the task for the Lakers is not impossible. The bad news is that no team has ever come back to win a playoff series after trailing 3-0 in a series. “This series is far from over," Nowitzki said. "I've been up 2-0 before and ended up losing the series. We've seen a lot of things happen in this league so we've got to stay focused, stay together and let our home crowd ride us and get another great win."

History aside, if they do not start playing like a team that at least resembles world champions, this could be a very brutal Mother’s Day weekend in Big D for the Lakers. "We don't like being in this position," Fisher said. "It's not familiar, you know? But we are where we are, so we have to make sure we stay together as a group and figure this thing out. We're trying to make history here, and that's not easy. We have to be willing to be accountable, all of us."

The pick here is for the surging Mavericks to triumph at home in Game 3. The following two highly-rated FoxSheets trends support this Dallas pick.

Play Against - Road teams (LA LAKERS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off 3 or more consecutive road wins. (35-7 since 1996.) (83.3%, +27.3 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - Home teams (DALLAS) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (30-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%, +19 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Playoff Tips

May 5, 2011

The stakes and drama will reach a fevered pitch Friday night during ESPN’s doubleheader in the NBA Playoffs. The two-time defending champs are in a 0-2 hole as they go to Dallas in an extremely vulnerable situation. As for the Eastern Conference’s top seed, Chicago, it is also in dire need of a victory at Atlanta in Game 3.

Let’s start with the Hawks and Bulls, who are knotted at 1-1 in the East semifinals. Atlanta (49-41 straight up, 43-47 against the spread) pulled a stunner in Game 1, capturing a 103-95 win as an 8 ½-point underdog behind a game-high 34 points from Joe Johnson. Jamal Crawford chipped in with 22 points and Jeff Teague did an outstanding job of defending MVP Derrick Rose, who went 11-of-27 from the field.

Larry Drew’s team hooked up money-line backers with a monster payout in the plus-375 range (risk $100 to win $375).

Chicago (67-22 SU, 52-35-2 ATS) was in desperation mode in Wednesday’s Game 2 at the United Center. The Bulls responded by winning an 86-73 decision as nine-point favorites. The 159 combined points easily stayed ‘under’ the 180-point total.

Joakim Noah was the catalyst with 19 points, 14 rebounds and three steals. Derrick Rose scored a team-high 25 points and dished out 10 assists, but he committed eight turnovers and made just 10-of-27 attempts from the field.

Carlos Boozer is playing in pain with turf toe and his production hasn’t been there. In Game 2, Boozer finished with eight points and 11 rebounds, going 4-of-12 from the floor. Kyle Korver nailed 3-of-4 attempts from 3-point range in Game 1, but he was 1-of-9 from the field in Game 2, 1-of-5 from beyond the arc.

Atlanta second-year point guard Jeff Teague continues to acquit himself quite well. Truth be told, the Wake Forest product has been outstanding while subbing for veteran PG Kirk Hinrich, who is not expected to play in the series. Teague scored a team-high 21 points and had three steals and two blocked shots in Game 2. He has committed just one turnover in 84-plus minutes of playing time against the Bulls.

Joe Johnson was spectacular in Game 1 and was solid again in Game 2. He was money Monday night, draining 12-of-18 from the field and all five attempts from both the free-throw line and 3-point range. Johnson had 16 points, five rebounds and five steals in Wednesday’s losing effort.

The ‘under’ has cashed in eight consecutive home games for the Hawks, who have seen the ‘under’ go 54-36 overall, 27-17 in their home outings. The ‘under’ is on a 9-3 run for the Bulls, who have seen the ‘under’ go 51-38 overall, 24-19 in their road assignments.

Most betting shops are listing the Bulls as 2 ½-point favorites for Friday’s Game 3 at Philips Arena. The total is 178 and gamblers can take Atlanta to win outright for a plus-115 return (risk $100 to win $115).

According to VI’s Kevin Rogers, the Hawks are the play. “They are 3-0 both SU and ATS in their three home playoff games and I think Orlando has more offensive firepower than the Bulls. And Boozer and Rose are both playing with injuries – they’re clearly not at 100 percent.”

Tip-off is slated for 7:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Dallas (63-27 SU, 51-36-3 ATS) has taken a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Lakers in their Western Conference semifinal showdown. The Mavericks won convincingly in Game 2 on Wednesday night at Staples Center, as Dirk Nowitzki went for a game-high 24 points in a 93-81 victory.

Rick Carlisle’s squad won outright as a seven-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-300 return (risk $100 to win $300). The 174 combined points comfortably stayed ‘under’ the 188-point tally.

Shawn Marion scored 14 points and pulled down nine rebounds, while Jose Barea chipped in 12 big points in just 17 minutes of playing time from off the bench. Brendan Haywood also came off the pine to play 17 minutes, contributing five points, eight boards and three blocked shots.

Kobe Bryant scored a team-high 23 points and had five steals in defeat. Andrew Bynum finished with 18 points 13 rebounds. As for Pau Gasol, he had a double-double (13 pts., 10 boards) on 5-of-12 shooting from the field and 3-of-6 at the charity stripe.

For Game 3, most spots are listing the Mavs as 2 ½-point favorites with a total of 182 ½. Bettors can take the Lakers to win at plus-120 odds.

Los Angeles (61-29 SU, 42-47-1 ATS) has been more effective for our purposes on the road, compiling a 25-18-1 spread record. Phil Jackson’s team has only been an underdog four times this season, going 2-2 both SU and ATS. The Lakers won at San Antonio and at Boston, but they lost at Orlando and at San Antonio.

L.A. went 2-1 both SU and ATS in three road games against the Hornets in the first round. Meanwhile, the Mavs went 3-0 both SU and ATS at home in the Portland series. In fact, they have cashed tickets at an 11-0-1 ATS clip their last 12 times out.

The ‘under’ is 53-37 overall for the Lakers, 27-17 in their road games. On the flip side, the ‘over’ has cashed at a 50-39-1 overall clip for the Mavs, going 23-20-1 in their home outings.

These teams will collide Friday night at 9:35 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/04/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
05/03/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/02/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/01/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
Totals 9-*7-*0 56.25% +650

Friday, May 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 7:00 PM ET Chicago -2.5 500
Atlanta - Over 178 500

L.A. Lakers - 9:30 PM ET L.A. Lakers +2 500
Dallas - Under 187 500

[StarDust Bum]

Grizzlies host Thunder in Game 3 Saturday


OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES


NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Semifinals
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Saturday, 5:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Memphis -3, Total: 200

After coming away with a split in Oklahoma City, the Grizzlies can take this series if they win out at home again. Of course, against the Thunder, that’s easier said than done.

Memphis has been outstanding at home. Since Rudy Gay’s injury opened up more minutes for defensive specialists Tony Allen and Shane Battier, the Grizzlies have gone 15-3 SU and a phenomenal 14-4 ATS in Memphis. That included three home wins in their first-round upset of the top-seeded Spurs. They’ve also beaten the Thunder three straight times at FedEx Forum.

The Thunder have gotten it done on the road though. Since acquiring Kendrick Perkins back in mid-March, they’re 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS away from OKC. But most encouraging was the job they did defensively on Zach Randolph in Game 2.

The Thunder crowded Randolph with Serge Ibaka (and a little bit of Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison), effectively taking away the face-up jumper he used to torch OKC in Game 1. While he got to the line 12 times in Game 2 on Wednesday (and made 11 of those free throws), Randolph finished with just 15 points on 2-of-13 shooting from the field. Had Mike Conley not found the range with his inconsistent jumper (24 points on 10-of-15 shooting), the Thunder would have won Game 2 by 20-plus points.

Oklahoma City also got a superior performance from its bench on Wednesday. James Harden, held to five points in Game 1, scored 21 off the bench. Eric Maynor added 15 points in 15 minutes, posting a plus/minus of +9. Collison was outstanding defensively and had a plus/minus of +12 over 25 minutes.

The key on Saturday could be the health of Ibaka. He suffered a knee injury on Wednesday and is considered probable for Game 3. If he’s close to 100 percent, I think the Thunder have figured out how to stop Randolph. And I don’t think the Grizzlies have enough firepower otherwise to keep up with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and company. The Thunder split their road games in Round 1 against Denver, an equally tough place to play. I think Oklahoma City pulls out the win on Saturday.

The FoxSheets have a trend that shows the Thunder have gotten it done on the road against efficient offensive opponents like Memphis:

OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-11 ATS (72.5%, +16.9 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 101.6, OPPONENT 100.8 - (Rating = 2*).

Ten of the past 13 meetings have finished Over the total, and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes the Over to occur on Saturday.

MEMPHIS is 21-7 OVER (75.0%, +13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 99.9, OPPONENT 99.4 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Shaq hopes to spark Celtics in Game 3


MIAMI HEAT

at BOSTON CELTICS


NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 3 – Miami leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -3, Total: 182.5

The Celtics look to work their way back into the East semifinals, when they host Miami in Game 3 on Saturday night. Boston hopes to have three-time NBA Finals MVP Shaquille O’Neal back on the court Saturday. The dynamic duo of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have dominated thus far in giving the Heat a 2-0 series lead.

James netted 24 of his 35 points in the second half, while Wade pumped in 28 points to lead Miami to a 102-91 win Tuesday’s Game 2. James was 14-of-25 shooting and had zero turnovers in his 44 minutes of action. Wade has now scored 66 points in the series with his 38-point performance in Game 1. Neither James (7-0) nor Wade (5-0) has ever lost a playoff series after leading two games to none. Chris Bosh, who had a poor Game 1 effort (7 points, 3-10 FG), was much better in Game 2, scoring 17 points and grabbing 11 boards.

In addition to O’Neal, whose calf has prevented him from playing more than 5½ minutes since Feb. 1, the veteran Celtics are hurting. Although all of their players are expected to suit up Saturday, their injury list is long. Paul Pierce left Game 2 after straining his left Achilles and only scored 13 points in 33 minutes. Pierce also left Game 1 early, scoring 19 points with seven rebounds before getting ejected. Ray Allen had a tremendous series opener, dropping 25 points on 9-of-13 FG, but only scored seven points on 2-of-7 shooting before leaving Game 2 with what he said was a bruised chest cavity from an errant James elbow in the third quarter. Rajon Rondo’s back bothered him throughout the game, but he still scored 20 and dished out 12 assists. That was a huge improvement from his Game 1 when Rondo had just eight points, seven assists and five turnovers. Kevin Garnett, who had just six points on 3-of-9 shooting in Game 1, had 16 points on 8-of-20 shooting in Game 2.

The Heat have not had much recent success in Beantown, losing 10 straight games, and going just 3-7 ATS in those contests. The Celtics won and covered these past five home games by an average of 11.8 PPG. While this game figures to be decided by single digits, Boston will finally make this a series with a win and cover in Game 3.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons to take the Celtics:

Play On - Home favorites (BOSTON) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (82-44 since 1996.) (65.1%, +33.6 units. Rating = 2*).

BOSTON is 15-4 ATS (78.9%, +10.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The average score was BOSTON 100.8, OPPONENT 89.0 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Memphis Grizzlies home vs Thunder

The surprising Memphis Grizzlies look to convert some more believers when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. This series is tied 1-1 as it moves locations.

The Don Best odds screen has Memphis as three-point favorites with a total of 200-points. ESPN will broadcast at 2:00 p.m. (PT), with corporate partner ABC showing Miami at Boston after.

The Grizzlies are being respected by the oddsmakers with Saturday’s spread, but are plus 1600 underdogs to win the NBA title. Only Atlanta (plus 3500) from the Eastern Conference is a bigger ‘dog.

Memphis (46-36 straight-up in the regular season) continues its unlikely run as an eighth seed. The franchise had never even won a playoff game (swept in three series) before taking on top-seed San Antonio in the first round. That shocking series lasted just six games and almost ended in five.

Coach Lionel Hollins brought his guys to Oklahoma City for the second round and weren’t done making noise. The Grizzlies won 114-101 in Game 1 as 6 ½-point underdogs after getting 34 points from Zach Randolph and 20 from Marc Gasol. The big men also combined for 23 boards.

Memphis was again a 6 ½-point ‘dog in Game 2 on Tuesday, but lost 111-102. Randolph and Gasol only combined for 28 points, although they still hit the boards hard with 19.

The Grizzlies dropped to 6-1-1 against the spread in the postseason. They were the leading ATS team in the regular season at 52-29-1.

The 113 combined points scored last game went ‘over’ the 197 ½-point total. The ‘over’ has easily gone 2-0 this series and is 5-0 in Memphis’ last five games.

Hollins has done a great job managing this rotation. Point guard Mike Conley has increased his scoring in the playoffs (15.6 vs. 13.7 PPG) while fellow starters Tony Allen and Sam Young are good role players. The bench has been whittled down to mostly three guys in O.J. Mayo, Shane Battier and Darrell Arthur.

Randolph is being counted on to score every night. The team is 4-1 SU in these playoffs when he breaks 20 points and 1-2 SU when he doesn’t.

The Grizzlies are happy to return to FedEx Forum where they went 30-11 SU and 26-14-1 ATS during the regular season. They were 3-0 SU and ATS against San Antonio there last round and 2-0 SU and ATS against Oklahoma City in the regular season.

Oklahoma City (60-29 SU and 46-41-2 ATS overall) dispatched Denver in a quick five games last round, but has a tougher challenge here.

Superstar Kevin Durant has led the way this series at 29.5 PPG. He simply has too much height and can shoot over any of the Allen, Young and Battier trio. Expect Durant to continue to have a big series.

Guard Russell Westbrook is averaging 26.5 PPG this series, but shot just 9-of-23 from the floor in the loss. He was an improved 9-of-20 in the win and it’s very important he stays efficient at the offensive end.

The supporting cast played well against Denver and guys like power forward Serge Ibaka and sixth man James Harden need to get into double digits every night. Center Kendrick Perkins is a non-factor on offense this series (2.0 PPG) and must earn his keep with rebounding and defense.

The Thunder were 25-16 SU and 23-18 ATS away during the regular season. They split two close games in Denver last round, going 1-0-1 ATS.

Ibaka (ankle) is listed as probable. Memphis doesn’t have any current significant injuries, adapting nicely after losing Rudy Gay (shoulder) in February.

Game 4 will be in Memphis Monday night, with TNT concluding its doubleheader coverage at 6:30 p.m. (PT).

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Playoff Notes

May 6, 2011

After taking three straight days off, the Oklahoma City-Memphis and Miami-Boston series will start back up again on Saturday. Since neither team has played since Tuesday, the obvious question is whether or not the layoff will help or hurt the four clubs in Game 3.
Let’s take a closer look.

Game 3 - Oklahoma City at Memphis – Series 1-1
Updated Series Price – Oklahoma City -155 Memphis +135
TV (ESPN, 5:05 p.m. EST)

Memphis did its job by earning a split in the first two games played at Oklahoma City. The Thunder came out flat in the opener but rebounded nicely in Game 2, capturing a 114-101 decision. OKC led by 10 at the break (54-44) and did enough to hold off a late Memphis run to cover the 6 ½-point number. The Thunder shot 53 percent from the field, including an 8-of-14 (57%) mark from 3-point land. Two numbers that stuck out from Oklahoma City’s win was the bench play by the Thunder (48 points) and the lack of production from the Grizzlies’ Zach Randolph (15 points, 2-of-13 shooting).

For Game 3, oddmakers installed Memphis as a three-point favorite. The Grizzlies have been the best team in the Association against the spread (57-30) this season, and that includes a 6-1-1 mark in the postseason as well. Do you continue riding that streak or expect things to balance out? VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers has dug into some more detailed numbers on the two clubs.

He said, “Memphis has been known to bounce back quickly this season, especially after a setback. The Grizz have compiled an 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS record as a home favorite off a loss. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has been known to play even better off victories this season. The Thunder is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 opportunities on the road off a win and that includes Game 3’s win at Denver (97-94) in the first round.

The Grizzlies have been tough outs (33-11 SU, 29-14 ATS) at home this season. Just ask San Antonio, who couldn’t muster up any wins in three attempts at Memphis in the first round.

In this year’s two regular season meetings from Memphis, the Grizzlies captured both games but the margins were by six (107-101) and five points (110-105).

On three days rest or more, Memphis (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) and Oklahoma City (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) have both been respectable. Under the same circumstances, it should be noted that both the Grizzlies (104.2 PPG) and Thunder (105.1 PPG) have had nice offensive performances.

With that being said, we turn our attention to the ‘over/under’ of 200 for Game 3. Total bettors have now watched the ‘over’ cash in the last seven encounters between this pair, including both games in this series. Even though some of the outcomes were lucky, Memphis owns a 6-2 mark to the ‘over’ in this year’s playoffs.

Miami at Boston – Miami leads 2-0
Updated Series Price – Miami -750 Boston +525
TV (ABC, 8:05 p.m. EST)

Can the Celtics bounce back? That’s the question gamblers are facing come Saturday night when Miami battles Boston in Game 3 from TD Garden. The Heat was made favorites over the Celtics in this best-of-seven series and they’ve lived up to the billing and more. Miami captured Game 1 by double digits (102-91) and nearly duplicated that effort in Game 2 (99-90) as well. The Celtics certainly looked outclassed in the first loss and then again at the end of Tuesday’s setback. In that particular loss, the game was tied (80-80) before Miami ran off 14 straight points en route to the home win.

Despite the late collapse, Boston has been made the favorite (-3) for Game 3, which will mark the first time this season that the Celtics are giving up points to the Heat. Doc Rivers’ team has gone 35-8 SU at home this season and gamblers should make a note that seven of the losses were against Western Conference opponents. The one team from the East to knock off Boston at home was Charlotte (81-83), which saw the C’s get outscored by 15 points (30-15) in the final 12 minutes.

Since the spread is short, it’s fair to say that you could ignore Boston’s ATS numbers at home (19-22). However in the first round against the Knicks, the Celtics’ wins came by two (87-85) and three (96-93) points.

One interesting tidbit you might not be aware of is Boston’s tendencies off back-to-back losses. This Celtics team has never lost three straight during the regular season and what they’ve done defensively off the second setback is pretty impressive. In the seven instances where they dropped two in a row, Boston has given up an average of 81.7 PPG in the following game. Five of the seven wins came by double digits and the other two were by three points a piece.

We understand Miami (29-14 SU, 25-18 ATS) has lost 10 straight battles at Boston, but this year’s team is far from a slouch on the road. The Heat went 1-1 both SU and ATS in their two road trips to Philadelphia in the first round as favorites. In this spot, they’re catching points and Rogers has detailed that situation for us.

“The Heat compiled a 5-3 ATS mark as a road underdog, but three of those games can be taken out thanks to injuries to LeBron James and all the three All-Stars missing the final regular season contest at Toronto. In the other four, Miami put together a 2-1-1 ATS ledger when getting points on the highway against the Bulls, Lakers, Thunder, and Mavs.” explained Rogers.

Boston should get a boost in the frontcourt with the return of Shaquille O’Neal (calf) in the lineup for Game 3. His presence should help but his production is hard to gauge, especially after missing 27 games. Another injury to note is Paul Pierce, who tweaked his Achilles in Game 2 and is much more important to the Celtics than Shaq.

The Celtics have definitely benefited with rest this season, posting a 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS mark when playing on three days of rest or more. They’ve averaged 103.4 PPG in these spots, which have helped the ‘over’ go 6-2.