The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: LA Lakers collide with Dallas Mavericks

When you look at the Los Angeles Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks, you see a whole heck of a lot of comparable things, and NBA betting fans might find it very difficult to parse the two teams.

After all, the Lakers won 57 games this year, covering the NBA odds in 39 of them, they averaged 101.5 PPG and allowed 95.4 PPG. They struggled in the playoffs for a bit, losing two games to the New Orleans Hornets before putting them away once and for all on Thursday night.

The Mavericks also won 57 games on the season, though they had a slightly better ATS record at 44-36-2. The offensive(100.2 PPG) and defensive (96.0 PPG) numbers are both absolutely comparable, and just like the Lakers, they ended up struggling badly for a few games in the playoffs before finally putting away the Portland Trail Blazers in six games on Thursday night as well.

Both teams rely heavily on one star to really shine brightly, and they both hope that role players will fill in the missing pieces to the puzzle. Kobe Bryant has averaged 22.5 PPG in the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki is at 27.3 PPG.

Each roster had a great Sixth Man of the Year candidate in 2010-11 as well. Lamar Odom won the award, averaging 14.4 PPG and 8.7 RPG. Jason Terry probably should've won it instead, as he averaged 15.8 PPG and 4.1 APG.

So far in the playoffs, Odom is good for 12.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG. Terry's at 17.3 PPG and 3.8 APG.

Both squads have aging point guards that really aren't known for their scoring at this point in their careers. Jason Kidd and Derek Fisher averaged 7.9 and 6.8 PPG respectively in the regular season. Both have kicked it up a notch in the playoffs though, averaging 11.7 and 9.3 PPG respectively.

However, that's where the comparisons really end. On closer inspection, the Lakers have virtually everything else on their side.

Dallas has no NBA title banners hanging in its gym, and has only been to the NBA Finals once. The Lakers have 433 playoff wins in team history and already have 16 titles, including their days in Minnesota.

Head coach Phil Jackson has won 229 playoff games in his career, 118 of which have come with Los Angeles. He's got two fists full of rings, and two other NBA Finals appearances.

Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle has never made it to the NBA Finals, and only has 41 lifetime postseason wins. He only has a .488 winning percentage in the playoffs, and it would take winning this series in six games just to get him back to .500.

Bryant is a notorious champion. He has played in 204 postseason games, winning a whole boatload of them, and he has carried his team to five championships. He's had three postseasons in which he has averaged at least 30 PPG, and the 22.5 PPG that Bryant is averaging this year is two points lower than any postseason he has had since 2000.

Nowitzki is a notorious choker. He's never averaged 30.0 PPG in the playoffs, and despite the fact that he has averaged at least 26.8 PPG in each of the last four postseasons, Nowitzki still doesn't have what it takes to win games in the end when it's all on the line.

And then, we have the bottom line for the Mavericks, a very, very gloomy bottom line. They are just 3-10 SU in their last 13 games against the Lakers dating back to the end of the 2007-08 regular season, and they have only won four times here at Staples Center since 2000.

These two teams might have traveled similar paths to get here, but there is definitely a reason and a justification for the Lakers being 365 favorites to win this series.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Chicago Bulls meet Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks are a heavy underdog to the Chicago Bulls in the second round of the playoffs, but the talent level between the teams is a lot closer than most think.

Game 1 is not until Monday and Bookmaker.com has the Bulls as nine-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 179 points. They’re minus 1100 in the series price with Atlanta plus 750.

Chicago was the plus 130 favorite to win the East Conference before the playoffs and has dropped slightly to plus 140, tied with Miami. Atlanta has moved from plus 3600 to 1475, still far behind Boston (plus 220) for last place.

The Bulls (66-21 straight-up, 51-34-2 against the spread) have home court advantage throughout the entire NBA playoffs after a terrific regular season. Their first round matchup against Indiana was much tougher than expected, but they still ended it in five games (going 2-3 ATS).

Chicago was lucky to win the first three games before the Pacers staved off elimination in Game 4 at home (89-84). The Bulls finally found their rhythm in the Game 5 clincher, 116-89 as 8 ½-point favorites. They failed to ‘cover’ the first two home games as 11 ½-point favorites each time.

Point guard Derrick Rose averaged 27.6 PPG in the first round and was great in crunch time, but shot just 37.1 percent from the floor. Indiana turned up the defensive pressure as the series went on and he was just 10-of-40 (25 percent) in the two games in Indy.

Rose is the likely league MVP, but he can’t win a championship alone. Luol Deng (18.6 PPG) was a solid second scorer last round, but Carlos Boozer (10 PPG) was a disappointment after scoring 17.5 PPG in the regular season.

Chicago already has two limited scorers in the starting lineup with Keith Bogans and Joakim Noah, so Rose, Deng and Boozer must all be on offensively.

Injuries could be a factor with Rose playing through a sprained ankle and Boozer suffering a turf toe last game. Boozer is listed as probable for Game 1, while Rose isn’t on the injury report.

The Bulls scored 105.3 PPG in the three home playoff games, with the ‘over’ going 2-1. They scored just 86 PPG on the road, with the ‘under’ going 2-0.

The Hawks (48-40 SU and 42-46 ATS) had a six-game upset over the Orlando Magic in the first round despite winning eight less games in the regular season. That was a revenge series as Orlando swept the Hawks in the playoffs last year.

First year coach Larry Drew deserves a lot of credit, especially after losing six-straight to end the regular season. His team went up 3-1 against Orlando, but got blown out on the road in Game 5 (101-76). Prior Hawks teams may have lost their composure after such a defeat, but they rebounded with an 84-81 clincher in Game 6.

Atlanta only averaged 86.8 PPG last round (the ‘under’ going 5-1), but had a balanced effort with five guys in double-digits, led by sixth man Jamal Crawford (20.5 PPG). Talent has never been an issue with Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford roaming the floor.

Defensively, Atlanta let up 27 PPG to Dwight Howard and 63 percent from the floor. However, everyone else was contained and the Magic shot 40.9 percent overall.

There is an injury concern as point guard Kirk Hinrich suffered a hamstring injury last game and is listed as questionable. He’s having an MRI on Friday.

Atlanta and Chicago met three times this season, all in March. Atlanta won 83-80 at home before losing badly there 114-91. Chicago also won handily (94-76) in the one game in the Windy City.

Rose averaged 32 PPG in the two wins over Atlanta and had just 12 in the loss. The team follows his lead, especially in the playoffs when a lot of games are decided in the final few minutes.

Johnson needs to increase his scoring output (18 PPG) from last series to help match points against Rose.

Atlanta really can’t afford an injury to Hinrich. Crawford is much better as instant-offense off the bench than as a starter. Plus, the bench is already thin with guards as Jeff Teague is not ready for prime-time play.

Horford and Smith are a good match up front with Noah and Boozer. Atlanta center Jason Collins will see less time this series with no burly center like Howard to guard. That shifts Horford to center, Smith to power forward and makes Marvin Williams the ‘three.'

Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau is in his first year as well, but he gets the coaching edge over Drew for his defensive prowess.

This should be a close series if Hinrich doesn’t miss any games and might go the distance.

Prediction: Bulls in seven

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Grizzlies, Thunder Game 1 Preview

Memphis was 3-1 vs. the Thunder in the regular season, the ’over’ going 4-0.
There is an unlikely matchup in the Western Conference semifinals between eighth-seed Memphis and fourth-seed Oklahoma City. Both teams have roots in the Pacific Northwest, with the Grizzlies relocating from Vancouver in 2001. The Thunder were originally the Seattle SuperSonics before moving in 2008.

Memphis became just the second eighth-seed to upset at top-seed since the NBA expanded the opening-round series to a best-of-seven. Things were so futile for this franchise that the Grizzlies were 0-12 in the postseason before this series.

Oklahoma City is also wading into uncharted postseason territory. This franchise had not won a playoff series since 2005 when it called Seattle home. The Thunder advanced to the postseason last year only to lose in the opening round to the eventual-champion Los Angeles Lakers in six games.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds opened Oklahoma City as seven-point home ‘chalk’ over Memphis in Sunday’s Game 1, with the total set at 195. ABC Sports will provide coverage of the opener beginning at 10:05 a.m. PT from Oklahoma City Arena.

The Thunder enter this series as a 6/1 selection to win the NBA Finals, while the Grizzlies are a 50/1 long shot.

Memphis dispatched San Antonio by winning Friday’s Game 6 as a 3 ½-point home favorite, 99-91, while the combined 190 points slithered ‘over’ the 189-point closing total. The ‘over’ has now cashed in the Grizzlies’ last three outings, but Friday’s outing only eclipsed the total because the Spurs fouled repeatedly towards the end of the game to stop the clock.

Memphis controlled the contest by leading San Antonio in rebounding, 43-32, and points in the paint, 62-38, while the Spurs delivered more assists, 15-12. The Grizzlies shot a robust 52 percent (38-of-73) from the field, but a dismal 11 percent (1-of-9) from behind the arc.

Power forward Zach Randolph led all scorers with 31 points on 12-of-22 shooting, while also grabbing 11 rebounds. At one point in the fourth quarter, Randolph scored 17 of the teams’ 29 points. Center Marc Gasol stepped up with 12 and 13, while shooting guard Tony Allen added 11 and four steals.

Oklahoma City needed five games to eliminate fifth-seed Denver, closing out the series last Wednesday as seven-point home ‘chalk,’ 100-97. The combined 197 points failed to topple the 204 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve 3-0-1 the previous four outings.

The Thunder entered the fourth quarter trailing by four points before outscoring the Nuggets, 28-21. Both teams distributed 16 assists in the outing, while Oklahoma City dominated the game in rebounding, 51-38.

Forward Kevin Durant controlled the contest with 41 points on 14-of-27 shooting, scoring Oklahoma City’s final nine points. Point guard Russell Westbrook added 14 in the triumph, while center Kendrick Perkins contributed 11 points and nine boards.

Memphis went 3-1 straight up and against the spread against Oklahoma City during the regular season, with the ‘over’ cashing each time. The Grizzlies prevailed Jan. 4 as a one-point home underdog, 110-105, Feb. 8 in overtime as a 7 ½-point road ‘dog, 105-101, and March 7 as a three-point home favorite, 107-101.

The Thunder's only triumph came Jan. 8 as 6 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 109-100. The lowest total for any of those contest was 198 ½.

Memphis forward Rudy Gay is ‘out’ the remainder of the season due to a shoulder injury. Oklahoma City has no significant injuries to report for Game 1.

[StarDust Bum]

Heat-Celtics Outlook

April 29, 2011


No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Boston Celtics

Series Prices: Miami -175, Boston +155

Series Format: Miami, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Sunday, May 1
Game 2 - Tuesday, May 3
Game 3 - Saturday, May 7
Game 4 - Monday, May 9
Game 5* - Wednesday, May 11
Game 6* - Friday, May 13
Game 7* - Monday, May 16


HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
60-26 40-44 35-8 25-18 37-47 96.3 91.0
62-25 42-44-1 33-11 29-14 43-43-1 102.1 94.6



2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
04/10/11 Boston 77 @ Miami 100 (-6) UNDER 183
02/13/11 Miami 82 @ Boston 85 (+2.5) UNDER 188.5
11/11/10 Boston 112 (+6.5) @ Miami 107 OVER 183.5
10/26/10 Miami 80 @ Boston 88 (+1) UNDER 189


Skinny: One of the most anticipated playoff matchups in recent memory takes place between the Heat and Celtics as the hunters face the hunted. Boston cruised past New York in a four-game sweep following a pair of close-shave victories in the first two games. Miami couldn't pull off the sweep against Philadelphia, but the Heat finished off the feisty Sixers in five games to advance past the first round for the first time since their championship season of 2006.

The Celtics failed to cover in each of the first two wins over the Knicks, beating New York by two points in Game 1 and three points in Game 2. Boston took advantage of Chauncey Billups' absence and Amare Stoudemire's lingering injuries to roll New York in the final two games at Madison Square Garden by double-digits each. Doc Rivers' squad has advanced to the conference semifinals for the fourth straight postseason, while riding a 10-game playoff streak of holding opponents to 100 points or less.

The expectation since last summer was the Heat were going to make a lengthy run after signing LeBron James and Chris Bosh. The Big Three of Dwyane Wade, James, and Bosh lifted the Heat to a 58-24 regular season record, including a 49-16 mark the final 65 regular season games. Miami covered only two of five games in their series victory over Philadelphia, as Erik Spoelstra's club scored 100 points just once in the series. Wade stepped up the final three games by averaging 26.6 ppg, while James put up 24.2 ppg in the series. Bosh compiled an interesting home/road split with his numbers as the ex-Raptor averaged 22.6 ppg and 11.3 rebounds/game at the American Airlines Arena. However, Bosh scored just 15.5 ppg and pulled down an average of 5.5 rebounds in the two road contests.

Head-to-Head Matchups: The Celtics have owned this series over the years, including taking three of four meetings this season. Boston took care of Miami in the season opener, 88-80 as one-point home underdogs. The Heat tallied just nine points in the first quarter, while scoring 30 total points in the first half. Wade and Bosh combined to go 7-for-27 from the floor as the Heat shot 36% from the floor. Ray Allen knocked down five treys and scored 20 points for the ninth straight home victory by the Celtics over the Heat.

Boston would turn the trick again in South Florida two weeks later with a 112-107 triumph as 6 ½-point 'dogs. The C's jumped out to a 15-point halftime lead before the Heat rallied to cut the deficit to three in the final seconds. Allen led the Celtics again with 35 points, while drilling several clutch free throws to put the victory away. James equaled Allen with a 35-point effort, but Wade struggled again by shooting 2-for-12 from the floor for just eight points.

The Celtics captured the season series by beating the Heat for a third time, 85-82 prior to the All-Star break at TD Garden. Miami led after the first quarter, 20-15, while holding a halftime lead for the first time in three meetings. Boston made a furious third quarter run (35-18), thanks to Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett combining for 17 points. Rondo finished with a triple-double, while Paul Pierce failed to make a basket from the field (0-for-10). Miami's Big Three combined to score 62 of the team's 82 points, as the bench tallied only eight points.

The Heat finally broke through in the final regular season meeting with a 100-77 home blowout of the Celtics to secure the second-seed in the Eastern Conference. After a slow start, Miami took a seven-point halftime lead and didn't look back as James led the way with 27 points. Boston shot 45% from the floor and received 58 points from Garnett, Pierce, and Allen, but not much contribution beyond that.

Betting Notes: Miami struggled to cover numbers as a home favorite by compiling a 16-29 ATS record. However, keep an eye on Game 2 in the case that the Heat loses the series opener because Miami owned a dreadful 2-14 ATS mark as home 'chalk' off a defeat. The Heat was listed as a road underdog just 10 times this season, while splitting those games both from a SU and ATS standpoint. The only number that stuck out from Miami as an away 'dog was the 8-2 clip to the 'over.'

Boston cashed with a 7-4 ATS ledger as a road 'dog, including the blowout victory at New York in Game 3 of the first round. The Celtics show no fear when hosting the Heat with a 10-0 SU and 7-3 SU mark since the start of the 2007 season at TD Garden. Despite the two non-covers against the Knicks, the Celtics are 12-7 ATS the last 19 home playoff games.

Series Outlook: The early-season doubts of whether the Heat can jell have slowly disappeared with the Big Three playing at a high level. However, it's tough to ignore the dominance of the Celtics in this series, regardless of who the Heat throws out on the floor. Miami may have the best two pure players on the floor, but Boston has been here before time and time again. When it's all said and done, the Celtics will advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in six games.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

April 30, 2011

First Round Results

Second Round Results

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Memphis Oklahoma City
Boston Miami

Monday, May 2
Atlanta Chicago
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Tuesday, May 3
Boston Miami
Memphis Oklahoma City

Wednesday, May 4
Atlanta Chicago
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Friday, May 6
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Saturday, May 7
Oklahoma City Memphis
Miami Boston

Sunday, May 8
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Monday, May 9
Miami Boston
Memphis Oklahoma City

Tuesday, May 10
Atlanta Chicago
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, May 11
Boston Miami
Memphis Oklahoma City

Thursday, May 12
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Friday, May 12
Miami Boston
Oklahoma City Memphis

Sunday, May 15
Atlanta Chicago
Memphis Oklahoma City
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Monday, May 16
Boston Miami




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Grizzlies look for more playoff success visiting Thunder

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


Western Conference Playoffs – Second Round
Game 1
Tip-off: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -6.5 Total: 195.5

After becoming just the fourth No. 8 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed, the Memphis Grizzlies try to pull off another big upset when they travel to Oklahoma City for Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Memphis won three of the four meetings during the regular season against the Thunder.

The Grizzlies have to feel good about their chances this round, having had success against Oklahoma City this season. However, all three of their wins were close, with one going into OT and the other two decided by a total of 11 points. Zach Randolph abused the Thunder, averaging 26.0 PPG, 13.0 RPG and shot 58.0 percent from the field. Randolph did not face Kendrick Perkins in any of those games, so it will be interesting to see how he plays against one of the best low-post defenders in the league. Tony Allen was also excellent against the Thunder this season, averaging 18.8 PPG while shooting 57.1 percent from the field.

After winning their first playoff series since moving to Oklahoma City, the Thunder and their fans are very glad that they get home-court advantage for the second round. Kevin Durant was outstanding in the Thunder’s first round win over the Nuggets, averaging 32.4 PPG and taking over games in the fourth quarter. Russell Westbrook was OK, averaging 23.8 PPG, but shot just 39.6 percent from the field, and averaged four turnovers per game in the series. The Thunder were able to get by Denver without much production from any one other than Durant or Westbrook (no one else averaged over 11.0 PPG), but they need a third player to join the fray and become a consistent scorer if they want to advance to the West Finals. James Harden is the only other player outside of Durant and Westbrook to average double-figures (13.8 PPG) this season against the Grizzlies. Serge Ibaka only scored three points in Game 1 and one point in Game 5, but in the middle three contests, he averaged 15.7 PPG. Ibaka also contributed greatly in terms of rebounding and defense, with 11.0 RPG and 4.8 BPG in the Nuggets series.

Despite Durant’s regular-season success against the Grizzlies (30.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG), Tony Allen also has shown himself to be one of the few players who defends Durant well, holding him to 0.65 points per play and 34.6% FG when he defended him this season. Durant also struggled against the Grizzlies this season coming off of screens, averaging just 0.61 points per play and 29% FG against them, compared to 0.91 points per play and 43% FG against the rest of the NBA.

Memphis dominated in the paint in its first-round series against the Spurs, averaging 45.3 PPG (the most among playoff teams), while the Thunder averaged just 30.4 PPG in the paint (the fewest among playoff teams). Without really analyzing the numbers, it’s easy to think that the Grizzlies will lose and lose quickly against the Thunder, since Durant is clearly the best player on the court. However, Memphis has proven it can defend him well, and I like the Grizz to pull the upset, not only in Game 1, but taking this series in six games. The FoxSheets gives two highly-rated reasons to take Memphis in Sunday’s Game 1:

MEMPHIS is 19-5 ATS (79.2%, +13.5 Units) when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 100.7, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 3*).

MEMPHIS is 24-9 ATS (72.7%, +14.1 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 102.8, OPPONENT 102.0 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics-Heat open series on Sunday afternoon


BOSTON CELTICS

at MIAMI HEAT


Eastern Conference Playoffs – Second Round
Game 1
Tip-off: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -4.5, Total: 181.5

After disposing of their First Round opponents, the Celtics and Heat meet in the second round with Game 1 taking place in Miami. The Celtics took three of the four regular-season meetings against the Heat, including splitting both games at the AmericanAirlines Arena.

Rajon Rondo recorded a triple-double in Game 3 against the Knicks and was clearly the best player on the court during their series, averaging double-figures in PPG (19.0) and APG (12.0). Paul Pierce and Ray Allen each averaged over 22.0 PPG in the first round, while combining to shoot 58.7 percent (27-of-46) from behind the arc. Allen also averaged 20.3 PPG and made 16-of-28 three-point attempts against Miami during the regular season. If the Celtics get that type of production against the Heat, then they will have an excellent chance to win this series.

Miami’s Big Three each averaged over 19.0 PPG and 8.0 RPG during their first round series against Philadelphia. LeBron James averaged 28.8 PPG against the Celtics during the regular season, but Dwyane Wade really struggled, averaging 12.8 PPG and connecting on just 28.1 percent of his shot attempts. If Miami can get similar contributions from role players like Mario Chalmers (20 points in Game 5) and James Jones (8-of-19 three-point FG in playoffs), then it has a great shot at winning this series.

The Heat have now had a full regular season and first round of the playoffs to get used to each other to undertake what is their first real challenge. Boston is deep and full of veteran players who know what it takes to win. While the Celtics looked old and disinterested in their first two games against the Knicks, they really answered the bell in the final two games. They have also owned Miami recently, going 17-3 SU and 14-6 ATS in the past 20 meetings. I’m taking Boston plus the points to take the early lead in this series.

The FoxSheets provide two more trends supporting the Celtics:

BOSTON is 13-2 ATS (86.7%, +10.8 Units) in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 99.9, OPPONENT 90.7 - (Rating = 2*).

MIAMI is 6-19 ATS (24.0%, -14.9 Units) in home games vs. good free-throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The average score was MIAMI 100.1, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Four of the past five meetings have finished Under the total and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Under for Sunday’s game.

BOSTON is 12-1 UNDER (92.3%, +10.9 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 90.2, OPPONENT 88.2 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

April's NBA Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/29/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
04/28/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/27/11 2-*3-*1 40.00% -*650 Detail
04/26/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/25/11 3-*1-*2 75.00% +*950 Detail
04/24/11 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
04/23/11 6-*2-*0 75.00% +*1900 Detail
04/22/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/21/11 4-*1-*1 80.00% +*1450 Detail
04/20/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/19/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/18/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
04/17/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% -*200 Detail
04/16/11 2-*6-*0 25.00% -*2300 Detail
Totals 45-*37-*4 54.88% +2150


Sunday, May 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Memphis - 1:00 PM ET Memphis +6.5 500
Oklahoma City - Under 195.5 500

Boston - 3:30 PM ET Miami -5 500
Miami - Under 181.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Chicago favored by 9.5 over Hawks in Game 1

ATLANTA HAWKS

at CHICAGO BULLS


Western Conference Playoffs – Second Round
Game 1
Tip-off: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -9.5, Total: 178

The Hawks look to steal Game 1 at the United Center, but that won’t be easy without their point guard and leader Kirk Hinrich.

Hinrich (10.2 PPG, 50% FG in playoffs) will likely miss the series against the Bulls with a hamstring strain. In his absence, Jeff Teague will have to step up (2.5 PPG in playoffs) even though he only played a total of 10 minutes in the previous series. Atlanta has received a nice scoring burst from veteran gunner Jamal Crawford. He averaged 14.2 PPG in the regular season, but is scoring 20.0 PPG in the playoffs including is 46% shooting from downtown. Crawford has never been known for his defense, but must use his lanky body to contain the explosive Derrick Rose. Joe Johnson (18.0 PPG) was Atlanta’s leading scorer during the regular season and must have a good series to give the Hawks any shot against the league’s best Bulls.

The Bulls had a harder time than expected with the Indiana Pacers before finishing them off in five games. Chicago’s leader Derrick Rose had a fantastic series averaging 27.6 PPG and 6.2 assists. Rose started out the series scoring 39 in Game 1 and 36 in Game 2 before slowing down in the next three contests. Rose could definitely use some help from Carlos Boozer who only averaged 10.0 PPG during the Pacers series. Boozer is considered questionable for Monday’s contest with a turf toe injury. With Boozer slowed down if not out, Joakim Noah will have to step up big and contribute more than the 12.0 PPG he averaged against Indiana. Noah is a good defender and rebounder (10.6 RPG in postseason), but will also have to supply some scoring if Boozer’s toe keeps him off the court.

Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in the playoffs this year, but only 21-19 ATS for the year as an underdog. The Hawks are also average on the road (23-21 ATS), but decent against Central Division opponents (11-7 ATS). Chicago is 8-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5-to-9 points and 25-18 ATS (58%) in home games overall. Head-to-head, Atlanta has won seven out of the last 10 against the spread. I think the Bulls will win this game but with Boozer likely out, Atlanta will keep it close enough to cover getting 9.5 points.

The FoxSheets also supports the Hawks with this trend:

ATLANTA is 33-18 ATS (64.7%, +13.2 Units) after a combined score of 175 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 97.2, OPPONENT 94.4.

[StarDust Bum]

Mavericks-Lakers open series Monday night


DALLAS MAVERICKS

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS


Western Conference Playoffs – Second Round
Game 1
Tip-off: Monday, 10:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -6, Total: 189

After each disposing of their First Round opponents in six games, the Mavericks and Lakers prepare to face off against each other in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Despite all of their regular season and postseason success over the last 10 years, this is the first time since 1988 that they are facing each other in the postseason.

The Mavs answered some of their critics in the First Round by defeating an opponent that many picked them to lose against. Unlike in years past, Dallas was able to show grit and toughness by rallying to win the series after blowing a 23-point lead in Game 4. Dirk Nowitzki played excellent, showing his true leadership abilities in defeating the Blazers in the First Round. Nowitzki averaged 27.3 PPG against the Blazers, while shooting 45.2 percent from the field. The Mavericks had real success when isolating Nowitzki this season, as he averaged 1.10 points per play, and shot 56.8 percent in isolation during the regular season, ranking first in both categories.

As he continues to chase the golden icon, Michael Jordan, in titles won, Kobe Bryant moved one step closer to his sixth NBA title when helped the Lakers defeat the Hornets. Bryant played a lesser role in the first round then he did during the regular season, averaging more than seven PPG less and five FG per game less. Andrew Bynum was excellent both offensively, averaging a double-double (15.2 PPG, 10.3 RPG), and defensively as the Lakers held the Hornets to 44.1% FG when he was on the court, compared to them shooting 49.0% FG when he was on the bench.

No matter how much success the Mavericks have had (they have averaged 56.3 wins per season over their past 11 regular seasons), they have never won an NBA title and advanced to the NBA Finals just once. The Lakers meanwhile, have averaged 54.5 wins per season over their past 11 regular seasons, but have won four titles over that span, and reached the finals six times. L.A. is 24-4 SU at home versus Dallas since 1996, and won the last two meetings by 28 points (110-82 on March 31) and 35 points (131-96 on 1/3/10).

While the Dallas faithful would like to believe this is the year the Mavs finally get over the hump, the Lakers are still the defending champs and until they are knocked out, I like them to win the West. I’m taking Los Angeles to win Game 1 and the series in six games.

The FoxSheets also backs the Lakers for Monday’s series opener:

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, playing with 3 or more days rest. (86-42 since 1996.) (67.2%, +39.8 units. Rating = 3*).

And this highly-rated FoxSheets trend sides with the Under for Game 1.

L.A. LAKERS are 27-11 UNDER (71.1%, +14.9 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. The average score was L.A. LAKERS 100.8, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Lakers and Mavericks tip series in LA

Dallas begins the series with LA on a 10-0 run against the spread.
This is the city, Los Angeles, California. There are 75,000 rapists, murderers and thieves, some of them also playing professional basketball. I was cruising the beach and catching some rays in El Segundo when the boys in Vegas called and assigned me to the Lakers, Dallas Mavericks Game 1 case.

This is their story. None of the names have been changed to protect any of the innocent or guilty.

Welcome to the Jack Webb Appreciation Society, or as it's also called the preview of Monday's Western Conference semifinal matchup between LA and Dallas. The best-of-7 set tips Monday night at Staples Center; TNT will begin its broadcast at 7:30 p.m. (PT).

The Lakers opened as 6-point Game 1 favorites and the line has been stuck there since. Monday's total started at 189-189½ but has since come down to 188½ at most NBA betting outlets.

As my colleague Adam Markowitz pointed out in his series preview, this would be a very tight series if it was played in a statistical vacuum. Dallas and Los Angeles enter with identical win totals on the season, 61 counting their playoff triumphs, their offensive and defensive numbers are comparable and the rosters are also similar in makeup.

But make no mistake, the stats are where the analogous proceedings begin and end. Setting aside intangibles like franchise histories and the home-court advantage Los Angeles begins the series with, the outcome comes down to a game of inside-outside. Simply put, the Lakers have the big edge inside with their deep front court and the Mavericks will have to shine outside the paint or it's going to be a short series.

Dirk Nowitzki can negate some of LA's inside strength by dragging one of the Lakers' Big 3 – Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom – from under the bucket. But that won't be enough for the Mavs to win the series or even Game 1.

Ironically, Nowitzki's worst statistical effort vs. the Lakers this season (14 points, 8 rebounds) resulted in Dallas' only win in the three regular season meetings. He averaged 26 points and 11.5 boards in the two Mavericks losses.

Tyson Chandler has to stay out of foul trouble in order to remain on the floor at least 75 percent of the time in this series. Jason Kidd is also going to have to make his shots. He won't have to make a lot like he did in scoring 24 and 18 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 vs. the Blazers, but he'll have to find the net with more consistency than he did in the ensuing four games.

After popping 9-of-16 three's to start that series, Kidd cooled and made just 6-of-22 from long range.

Likewise, Los Angeles can't just sit back and wait for the big guys to take over the game. Disrupting Dallas' half-court offense will fall on the shoulders of Ron Artest and Derek Fisher.

Health is always crucial this time of the season, especially in a series that figures to be 6-on-6. News surfaced this week that Dallas could get forward Caron Butler back for the LA series, but that appears to have been nothing more than wishful thinking on Butler's part. The 10-year veteran out of UConn is not expected to suit up for the series according to the Don Best injury report as well as his coach, Rick Carlisle.

Kobe Bryant is reportedly still hobbling on a bum ankle, that injury suffered in Game 5 of the Lakers' series with the Hornets. I'm not buying into that. Bynum is ok to go now, but is one awkward landing on his right knee away from dramatically affecting the matchups in this series.

Dallas has cashed 10 straight spread wagers after sweeping the NBA odds in the Portland series. The Lakers were 3-3 ATS in their 6-game battle with New Orleans after closing the regular season 1-6 ATS.

Los Angeles begins the series as 2/1 favorites to three-peat as NBA champions. The Lakers are 2/3 chalk to win the conference title and nearly 1/4 to win this series. Dallas enters 15/2 to raise its first league banner, 7/2 to tame the wild west and a 3/1 underdog to take four games over the next week or two from LA.

Tuesday's off day is followed by Game 2 of the series on Wednesday. TNT will have that broadcast at 7:30 p.m. (PT). The series will shift to Dallas for Game 3 this Friday and Game 4 on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Chicago Bulls meet Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks are a heavy underdog to the Chicago Bulls in the second round of the playoffs, but the talent level between the teams is a lot closer than most think.

Game 1 is not until Monday and Bookmaker.com has the Bulls as nine-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 179 points. They’re minus 1100 in the series price with Atlanta plus 750.

Chicago was the plus 130 favorite to win the East Conference before the playoffs and has dropped slightly to plus 140, tied with Miami. Atlanta has moved from plus 3600 to 1475, still far behind Boston (plus 220) for last place.

The Bulls (66-21 straight-up, 51-34-2 against the spread) have home court advantage throughout the entire NBA playoffs after a terrific regular season. Their first round matchup against Indiana was much tougher than expected, but they still ended it in five games (going 2-3 ATS).

Chicago was lucky to win the first three games before the Pacers staved off elimination in Game 4 at home (89-84). The Bulls finally found their rhythm in the Game 5 clincher, 116-89 as 8 ½-point favorites. They failed to ‘cover’ the first two home games as 11 ½-point favorites each time.

Point guard Derrick Rose averaged 27.6 PPG in the first round and was great in crunch time, but shot just 37.1 percent from the floor. Indiana turned up the defensive pressure as the series went on and he was just 10-of-40 (25 percent) in the two games in Indy.

Rose is the likely league MVP, but he can’t win a championship alone. Luol Deng (18.6 PPG) was a solid second scorer last round, but Carlos Boozer (10 PPG) was a disappointment after scoring 17.5 PPG in the regular season.

Chicago already has two limited scorers in the starting lineup with Keith Bogans and Joakim Noah, so Rose, Deng and Boozer must all be on offensively.

Injuries could be a factor with Rose playing through a sprained ankle and Boozer suffering a turf toe last game. Boozer is listed as probable for Game 1, while Rose isn’t on the injury report.

The Bulls scored 105.3 PPG in the three home playoff games, with the ‘over’ going 2-1. They scored just 86 PPG on the road, with the ‘under’ going 2-0.

The Hawks (48-40 SU and 42-46 ATS) had a six-game upset over the Orlando Magic in the first round despite winning eight less games in the regular season. That was a revenge series as Orlando swept the Hawks in the playoffs last year.

First year coach Larry Drew deserves a lot of credit, especially after losing six-straight to end the regular season. His team went up 3-1 against Orlando, but got blown out on the road in Game 5 (101-76). Prior Hawks teams may have lost their composure after such a defeat, but they rebounded with an 84-81 clincher in Game 6.

Atlanta only averaged 86.8 PPG last round (the ‘under’ going 5-1), but had a balanced effort with five guys in double-digits, led by sixth man Jamal Crawford (20.5 PPG). Talent has never been an issue with Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford roaming the floor.

Defensively, Atlanta let up 27 PPG to Dwight Howard and 63 percent from the floor. However, everyone else was contained and the Magic shot 40.9 percent overall.

There is an injury concern as point guard Kirk Hinrich suffered a hamstring injury last game and is listed as questionable. He’s having an MRI on Friday.

Atlanta and Chicago met three times this season, all in March. Atlanta won 83-80 at home before losing badly there 114-91. Chicago also won handily (94-76) in the one game in the Windy City.

Rose averaged 32 PPG in the two wins over Atlanta and had just 12 in the loss. The team follows his lead, especially in the playoffs when a lot of games are decided in the final few minutes.

Johnson needs to increase his scoring output (18 PPG) from last series to help match points against Rose.

Atlanta really can’t afford an injury to Hinrich. Crawford is much better as instant-offense off the bench than as a starter. Plus, the bench is already thin with guards as Jeff Teague is not ready for prime-time play.

Horford and Smith are a good match up front with Noah and Boozer. Atlanta center Jason Collins will see less time this series with no burly center like Howard to guard. That shifts Horford to center, Smith to power forward and makes Marvin Williams the ‘three.'

Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau is in his first year as well, but he gets the coaching edge over Drew for his defensive prowess.

This should be a close series if Hinrich doesn’t miss any games and might go the distance.

Prediction: Bulls in seven

[StarDust Bum]

Round # 2 Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/01/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
Totals 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100

Monday, May 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -9 500
Chicago - Under 178 500

Dallas - 10:30 PM ET Dallas +5.5 500
L.A. Lakers - Over 187.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Boston Celtics look to even NBA odds series at Miami Heat

The Boston Celtics were supposed to have the edge over the Miami Heat in playoff experience and acumen, but it hasn’t worked out that way so far heading into Game 2 on Tuesday night.

Bookmaker.com has Miami as five-point home favorites with a total of 182 ½-points. TNT has the broadcast at 4 p.m. (PT) from AmericanAirlines Arena. The series price has been updated with Miami minus 300 and Boston plus 250.

The Heat (63-25 straight-up, 43-44-1 against the spread) took the series opener 99-90 as five-point favorites on Sunday, but it was how they won that was surprising. Boston didn’t play with poise and Paul Pierce was ejected with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter after separate incidents with James Jones and Dwyane Wade.

Miami controlled the game all the way with a 15-point halftime lead, 14 at the end of three and 13 when Pierce was ejected. The Celtics did cut the lead down to eight with 4:22 remaining, but it was too little, too late with Pierce (19 points) no longer available.

The 189 combined points scored went ‘over’ the 179 ½-point total. The ‘under’ was 3-2 and 3-1 in Miami and Boston’s opening round series against Philadelphia and New York respectively.

The Heat are 20-4 SU in their last 24 games after also beating Philadelphia 4-1. Their ATS mark improved to 3-3 in the playoffs.

Wade had 38 points for Miami in Game 1 and was a terrific 14-of-21 from the field. That effort was needed with fellow ‘Big 3’ member Chris Bosh (seven points) struggling. LeBron James had 22 points, but was just 8-of-19 from the floor.

Wade scored just 12.8 PPG (28.1 percent shooting) during the four regular season meetings. Boston won and ‘covered’ the first three before a 100-77 road loss on April 10. Wade’s value can not be overstated especially with Bosh and James still question marks in big series.

Jones was also a star of Game 1 and not just for helping get Pierce ejected. He scored 25 points off the bench, including 5-of-7 from three-point land and 10-of-10 from the line. That helped Miami’s bench outscore Boston 29-23.

The Celtics (60-27 SU, 40-45-2 ATS) know they must play a lot smarter in Game 2, but they can still meet their goal of splitting the first two in Miami.

Boston lost a Game 1 on the road in the playoffs twice last year. Once was in the second round to LeBron and Cleveland. The second was in the Finals to the Lakers. The Celtics won both Game 2’s as solid underdogs.

The Celtics will need a much better game from point guard Rajon Rondo. He played just eight minutes in the first half due to foul trouble and finished with eight points and seven assists. He’s the engine that makes the team go and has a huge mismatch against the defensively-challenged Mike Bibby.

Power forward Kevin Garnett must also bounce back after a 3-of-9 shooting effort and six points. Ray Allen (25 points) was the only one of Boston’s four All-Stars to play really well.

The Celtics were coming off a sweep of New York (2-2 ATS), but they got fortunate with injuries to both Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. There was a week between games, but the delay wasn’t the reason for the Miami loss.

Boston center Shaquille O’Neal (calf) is listed as questionable after playing in just one game since Feb. 1. He would love to face his former team and would be a good backup for Jermaine O’Neal. Miami’s Udonis Haslem (foot) has been out since November and is listed as doubtful.

The teams will head up the East Coast for Game 3 on Saturday. That will mean more rest for the aging Celtics, but they won’t be happy about it if down 0-2.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Grizzlies, Thunder Game 2 Preview

It's been a little like watching VCU's run to the NCAA Final Four, only Lionel Hollins has more hair than Shaka Smart.

The Memphis Grizzlies grabbed another 1-0 series lead with Sunday's road upset at the Oklahoma City Thunder. Zach Randolph scored a personal playoff-best 34 points to lead the Grizz to the 114-101 win as 6½-point underdogs.

Memphis committed just seven turnovers and used an 18-5 run in the second quarter to build on a lead that was in place after the first 2:30 of the game.

Oklahoma City will now face a Game 2 in the series that could indeed define this franchise for seasons to come. A shot to at least advance to the Western Conference Final is on the line for Kevin Durant and Company. Anything other than a winning response Tuesday might have far-reaching effects.

TNT has the telecast starting at 6:30 p.m. (PT). The Las Vegas Hilton opened Oklahoma City 6½-point chalk with 198½ for the scoreboard tally.

Though it's naturally surprising to see an 8th-place team from the regular season skating through the postseason like Memphis is doing, it really shouldn't be. The Grizzlies have been beating the odds all season, cashing 52 wagers during the regular season before a 6-1 run against the spread so far in the playoffs.

Remember also that Memphis' 46-36 regular season mark would've been seeded fifth in the Eastern Conference postseason.

Game 1 on Sunday pretty much followed the same script as the four regular season meetings between the Thunder and Grizzlies. Memphis won three of those matchups, twice as the underdog. All four games went 'over' the total. Both teams also reached the century mark on the scoreboard as they did in each of the regular season contests.

NBA scoring champ Kevin Durant had 33 points in the losing effort and added 11 rebounds, three on the offensive end. Russell Westbrook scored 29 to help OK City's dynamic duo keep pace with the Randolph, Marc Gasol tandem of Memphis. But Westbrook also turned it over seven times and was a lackluster 9-of-23 from the field.

One more similarity was Memphis dominating the scoring in the paint. The Grizzlies' 13-point margin of victory was just one point less than their 52-38 scoring advantage in the paint.

The bulk of that inside offense came from Gasol. The 3rd-year center tallied 20 points on the afternoon on 9-of-11 shooting from the field. He added 13 boards for his fourth double-double in seven playoff games.

Finding a body to stick on Gasol and taking him out of his comfort zone with so many good looks inside will be Scott Brooks' biggest adjustment to make for his Oklahoma City troops. Memphis led the NBA at scoring inside this season, so it won't be an easy task.

Gasol is supposedly nursing a sore elbow, though he certainly showed no ill-effects of that in Game 1. Westbrook is officially listed as probable on the Don Best Sports injury report with a minor ankle injury.

Following a 3-day rest, this Western Conference semifinal will move east to Memphis for Game 3. ESPN will have Saturday's broadcast from FedExForum beginning at 2:00 p.m. (PT) and you can count on Don Best to have the game previewed long before that.