The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/26/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/25/11 3-*1-*2 75.00% +*950 Detail
04/24/11 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
04/23/11 6-*2-*0 75.00% +*1900 Detail
04/22/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/21/11 4-*1-*1 80.00% +*1450 Detail
04/20/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/19/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/18/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
04/17/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% -*200 Detail
04/16/11 2-*6-*0 25.00% -*2300 Detail

Totals 38-*31-*3 55.07% +1950



Wednesday, April 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Miami -10.5 500
Miami - Over 186 500

Memphis - 8:30 PM ET Memphis +7 500
San Antonio - Under 189 500

Denver - 9:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -7 500
Oklahoma City - Under 204.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Kobe Bryant, Lakers look to close out Hornets

Kobe Bryant is on a mission and Los Angeles has huge size and talent advantages.

But can the Lakers be trusted as a mid-sized road favorite in their first-round Western Conference playoff series against New Orleans after losing to the Hornets by five as a similar favorite in their last visit?

The teams meet Thursday night at 5:00 (PT) in New Orleans for Game 6 with TNT televising.

The Lakers lead the series 3-2. Oddsmakers believe Los Angeles will close out the series installing the Lakers as 5 ½-point favorites. The ‘over/under’ is 184.

If the Lakers beat New Orleans, they wouldn’t play again until Monday taking on the winner of the Portland-Dallas series.

Everything was in place for the Lakers on Tuesday in an impressive 106-90 home victory in Game 5. The Lakers were 9 ½-point favorites and the combined 196 points went ‘over’ the 183-point total.

Bryant shook off a sprained left ankle to score 19 points, including two intimidating dunks, in less than 29 minutes to spark Los Angeles.

The Lakers took advantage of their size edge to crush the Hornets on the board, 42-25, while scoring 22 second-chance points to New Orleans’ two second-chance points.

Andrew Bynum had 18 points and 10 rebounds, Pau Gasol scored 16 points and had eight boards and Lamar Odom contributed 13 points and pulled down seven boards to spearhead the Lakers’ inside dominance.

Finally the Lakers showed the urgency needed if they are going to win the championship for the third consecutive season. The key to this Game 6 is if the Lakers can maintain their intensity.

The Lakers were sharp in Game 3 beating the Hornets, 100-86, as five-point road favorites. However, the Hornets came back to capture Game 4 at home, 93-88, as six-point ‘dogs.

Chris Paul had a monster triple-double in that victory with 27 points, 15 assists and 13 rebounds. The Lakers clamped down on Paul in Game 5, although he still produced 20 points on six-of-12 shooting from the floor and had 12 assists.

Obviously, the Hornets will be going all out being at home with their playoff lives at stake. The underdog has covered 17 of the past 23 times between these two teams.

Bryant was on crutches following Game 4 after suffering his ankle injury. He shot 62 percent from the floor in Game 5 on his bad ankle making eight of 13 shots from the field. Bryant shot just 42 percent from the floor during the first four games of the series.

If Bryant has regained his shooting touch, the Lakers should be in good shape to cover the number given their height advantage and bench superiority. Los Angeles’ reserves outscored New Orleans’ bench players by 17 points this past Tuesday. The Hornets’ reserves are averaging 12.5 points in their last four games.

The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day rest. There are other trends favoring the Lakers: Los Angeles is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road contests when meeting a foe with a winning home mark. The Lakers have covered nine of their last 13 overall road matchups.

The Lakers also have covered in five of their last seven trips to New Orleans. The road team in this series has covered 15 of the past 21 times.

The two teams have gone ‘over’ in eight of their last 11 head-to-head meetings, including four of the last five in New Orleans. The ‘over’ has cashed in six of the Lakers’ last eight games. The ‘over’ has won six of the past seven times when the Hornets played with one day rest.

The ‘under,’ though, is 42-19 during the past 61 times the Lakers have played on one day of rest.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Dallas Mavericks at Portland

The Dallas Mavericks look to break the home court stranglehold and eliminate the Portland Trail Blazers when they travel to the Pacific Northwest on Thursday night.

The Don Best odds screen has Portland as 4 ½-point home favorites with a total of 182 points. TNT will have the broadcast from the Rose Garden at 7:30 p.m. (PT).

Dallas (60-27 straight-up, 48-36-3 against the spread) leads this series 3-2, but lost both games in Portland and is 0-4 there this season. The home team has won all five playoff games and the nine contests between the teams this season.

Coach Rick Carlisle is still having nightmares about last Saturday’s Game 4 in Portland. His team led by 23 points (64-41) with 2:30 left in the third quarter, but was outscored 43-18 the rest of the way. Portland’s 84-82 win was one of the biggest comebacks in NBA playoff history, although it didn’t ‘cover’ the four-point spread.

The Mavericks were certainly stunned heading home for Monday’s Game 5, but it didn’t stop them. Center Tyson Chandler easily had his best game of the series with 14 points and 20 rebounds and Dallas won 93-82 as five-point favorites. Dirk Nowitzki scored 25 points and he’s leading Dallas in the playoffs at 26.2 PPG.

The 175 combined points scored last game went ‘under’ the 183 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 2-0 in the last two games and 3-2 in the series (going 1-1 in Portland).

Dallas is 4-0-1 ATS this series, ‘covering’ all three home games It ‘pushed’ Game 3 in Portland, a 97-92 loss as five-point underdogs. Dallas out-shot Portland from the floor (51.5-48 percent) but lost the turnover battle (16-9). Taking care of the ball will be ultra-important on Thursday.

The Mavericks have been knocked out in the first round of the playoffs three of the last four years. Carlisle was the coach the last two years, losing to San Antonio in the first round last season and to Denver in the conference semis in 2009.

The Trail Blazers (50-37 SU, 43-40-4 ATS) have been scrappy all year and aren’t about to be eliminated now without a big effort. They won 48 regular season games despite losing center Greg Oden for the year (again) and playing with guard Brandon Roy at far less than 100 percent. There have been 18 different players to suit up for them this season.

Roy is limited to being a bench player with his knee problems, but he still likes performing for the home fans. He had 18 points in the fourth quarter of Game 4’s comeback, scoring 40 in total in the two home playoff games. That’s in contrast to his big struggles in Dallas (2.3 PPG).

Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge is the star of the team and need to play up to his capabilities. He’s averaging a team-high 20.2 PPG this series, but just 16.7 PPG the last three games on 40 percent shooting. He must play a lot better because Roy can’t be counted on for another monster game.

Aldridge must also do a better job on the boards (7.0 RPG this series). Portland was out-rebounded 49-37 last game and center Marcus Camby may be forced into more minutes to help neutralize Chandler.

The two days rest for this game could be more valuable for Dallas. Aging point guard Jason Kidd looked spry in the first two games (21 PPG), shooting 16-of-25 from the field (64 percent). Both were with two days rest. The 38-year-old is averaging just 7.0 PPG the last three games, all on just one day rest.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries. Dallas could get Caron Butler (knee) back for the second round after being out since Jan. 1.

A Portland win will force a Game 7 in Dallas on Saturday in a winner-take-all scenario.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Playoff Tips

April 27, 2011


The first round of the NBA playoffs is winding down with a trio of Game 6's on Thursday night. A pair of road teams in the Western Conference try to close things out with the Lakers and Mavericks each leading their respective series, 3-2. We'll start in Atlanta with the Hawks attempting to put Tuesday's Game 5 blowout loss to Orlando behind them.

Magic at Hawks - 7:35 PM EST

The shots finally fell for Orlando in a resounding 101-76 rout of Atlanta in the pivotal Game 5 as the series shifts back to Philips Arena. The Magic looks to even the series at three games apiece with a victory on Thursday, even though Orlando is 0-4 SU/ATS this season at Atlanta. The key for the Hawks is not allowing the Magic to duplicate their long-range prowess from Game 5.

Stan Van Gundy's faced elimination thanks to shooting a horrific 19-for-100 from three-point range in the first four games of this series, including a 2-for-23 effort in the 88-85 setback in Game 4. The Magic shot significantly better in Game 5 by drilling 11 of 26 attempts from long distance, including three treys and 17 points from Jason Richardson. The Hawks reverted back to last postseason's inept play against the Magic by shooting just 36% from the floor, while Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford combined to make four field goals in 20 attempts.

Orlando ended a seven-game ATS drought against Atlanta by easily cashing as seven-point favorites in Game 5, as the Magic will lay points for the sixth time in the series on Thursday. Game 6 will mark the 14th straight meeting between these two teams that Orlando has been favored, while the Magic owns a 5-8 ATS mark in this stretch (1-8 ATS the last nine matchups). The 'under' continues to hit in this series, now riding a four-game streak and 8-1 this season.

The Magic is listed as two-point favorites, while the total is set at 178. The game will be televised nationally on NBA TV.

Lakers at Hornets - 8:05 PM EST

For the second straight postseason, the Lakers will look to close the door in a Game 6 on the road as Los Angeles travels back to the Big Easy to battle the Hornets. New Orleans took an early lead in Game 5, but the Lakers rallied back for a 106-90 triumph as 9 ½-point favorites to take a 3-2 series advantage.

The two-time defending champions didn't need a major scoring effort from the banged-up Kobe Bryant (19 points in 28 minutes) as six Lakers reached double-figures. Both teams shot 49% from the floor, but the Lakers cleaned up on the boards by outrebounding the Hornets, 42-25. In spite of three players scoring at least 20 points (Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza, and Marco Belinelli), the Hornets tallied just 39 points in the second half to stand one game away from elimination.

The Lakers managed a split in New Orleans for Games 3 and 4, winning Game 3 with a 100-86 victory as five-point 'chalk.' The Hornets evened things up in Game 4 by bouncing the Lakers, 93-88 as six-point home underdogs, while Paul put together one of his best career games with a triple-double. However, the Lakers own a killer instinct when attempting to close out a series by going 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS since 2008 in series-clinchers.

Los Angeles is listed as 5 ½-point favorites with the total set at 184. The game can be seen nationally on TNT.

Mavericks at Blazers - 10:35 PM EST

Probably the most entertaining series from a competitive standpoint has taken place between Dallas and Portland as Rick Carlisle's squad looks to eliminate the Blazers. Dallas rebounded from the Game 4 meltdown at the Rose Garden when the Mavs squandered a 23-point second half lead to beat the Blazers at home, 93-82 as five-point favorites in Game 5. Now, the Mavs hope to advance to the conference semifinals for only the second time since 2007 with a victory in Game 6.

Dallas broke away from Portland on Monday thanks to a strong third quarter in which the Mavs outscored the Blazers, 31-20. The Mavs didn't shoot well from the floor (41%), but Dirk Nowitzki carried the scoring load with a game-high 25 points and Tyson Chandler pulled down 20 rebounds to move Dallas closer to the second round.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David says there's no reason to get off the home bandwagon in this series, "It's hard not to back Portland in this spot, considering the home team has won all five games in this series and the four encounters during the regular season as well. The difference in this postseason is that the Mavericks have covered all five of the battles, including the third and fourth installments from Rose Garden."

The Mavs are riding an 8-0-1 ATS run since April 8, even though Dallas has been listed as an underdog only twice in this span (Games 3 and 4 at Portland). The Blazers haven't covered a game in this series, while going 13-3 SU and 8-8 ATS at the Rose Garden off a defeat this season.

David gives a solid breakdown of how gamblers can cash assuming this series goes to the brink, "The money-line price on the Trail Blazers in Game 6 is minus-200 (Bet $200 to win $100), which is a little steep but certainly doable. Rather than laying the points or the money-line price in tonight's contest, the smarter approach might be taking Portland on the current series price, which is close to plus-325 (Bet $100 to win $325). If the Blazers force a Game 7, then you're going to see a short spread in Dallas for the clincher on Saturday. And then that's when you hedge back."

The Blazers will try to force a Game 7 as 4 ½-point favorites, while the total is set at 182. The game will be televised nationally on TNT.

[StarDust Bum]

Hawks try to finish off Magic at home


ORLANDO MAGIC

at ATLANTA HAWKS

Eastern Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 6 – Atlanta leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -2, Total: 178

The last one is always the toughest one. Thursday night the Atlanta Hawks will try and close out the Orlando Magic in Philips Arena in Game 6 of its quarterfinal series. The Magic recovered their swagger Tuesday in Orlando with a 101-76 victory over the Hawks. You might have felt that with a chance to end the series the Hawks may have put forth a stronger effort, but this game was pretty much over by halftime when Atlanta entered intermission trailing by 23. Sometimes teams leading 3-1 facing a Game 5 on the road will lack that sense of urgency, knowing that they have the buffer of another home game to clinch matters. But the longer a series goes on the longer for the unexpected and unforeseen circumstances to play a role. Now that this series has reached a Game 6, simple math dictates that Thursday night means entirely different things to each squad. Yet in reality, Game 6 is a must win for both teams, because Orlando does not want its season to end, while Atlanta does not want this series to extend.

Larry Drew’s Hawks had two players show up Tuesday in Orlando, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams, who scored 22 and 12 points respectively. No other player scored in double figures. Reserve guard Jamal Crawford who has averaged 20.8 PPG in the series could only tally eight points on 2-for-8 shooting. Joe Johnson is averaging 17.0 PPG in the series, but was a miserable 2-for-12 from the field with just five points. Nothing that Atlanta did offensively was particularly impressive, as it shot 36% from the floor, 25% from beyond the arc, and 69% from the FT line. "They had a good run," Crawford said. "They were making shots. They came out with a nothing-to-lose-type attitude. You could sense it and you have to tip your hat to them." Now Atlanta must hope for the power of the home court, where it was a respectable, but far from intimidating, 24-17 at home in the regular season, to quench its thirst for a series-clinching win. "We're in a situation where we still feel good about ourselves," Drew said. "We'll go back home. We still have an opportunity. Our fans are gonna be behind us, just as their fans were behind them. So we're gonna put this game behind us as fast as we can."

If there is one good sign for the Magic to take into Thursday, it is the knowledge that the rest of the team came through in a must-win situation on a night that leading scorer and rebounder Dwight Howard (27.4 PPG, 15.6 RPG in the postseason) only mustered eight points and eight boards. The Magic only had three players in double figures, compared to the Hawks two, but Orlando had greater balance, and finally began to hit some shots. Despite a 41% FG mark for the game, Orlando’s 42.3% from beyond the arc (11-for-26) was in stark contrast to the 2-for-23 effort they displayed in Game 4. Jason Richardson bounced back from his Game 4 suspension to score a team-high 17 points. Meanwhile J.J. Redick bounced back from his 0-for-9, two-point performance in Game 4 to add 14 points of his own. "The law of averages is eventually going to even out," Redick said. "We didn't shoot amazing tonight, but we shot very well."

What kind of team would it take to win a Game 6 elimination game on the road? Probably a team that was above .500 on the road during the regular season. Orlando was 23-18. What kind of team might be vulnerable at home? Maybe a squad that was 24-17 during the regular season, which is what Atlanta was. Long story short, the closest games in this series have been in Atlanta, and if Orlando has gotten all of its 2-for-23 three-point shooting nights out of its system, Van Gundy’s team has an excellent shot at forcing a Game 7.

Orlando is the pick here, as I think the Magic will force the first Game 7 of the postseason in the Eastern Conference. The following three FoxSheets trends support the pick.

Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game. (28-7 since 1996.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Road favorites (ORLANDO) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games. (159-100 since 1996.) (61.4%, +49 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Blazers try to stay alive hosting Dallas in Game 6


DALLAS MAVERICKS

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 6 – Dallas leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Portland -4.5, Total: 182

Home-court advantage has been key in the Mavericks-Blazers first-round series with no team winning on the road. The series shifts to Portland on Thursday night, and the Blazers have won 12 of their past 13 games at the noisy Rose Garden.

Dallas is looking for its first win in Portland this year where it is 0-4. Luckily Dallas is up 3-2 in the series after an impressive 93-82 home win on Monday. The Mavs recorded 20 offensive rebounds and Tyson Chandler grabbed 13 of them. Chandler (6.0 PPG 10.0 RPG in series) finished with 14 points and 20 rebounds on only four field-goal attempts. Dirk Nowitzki has been great all series long, averaging 26.2 PPG and shooting 50 percent from behind the arc. Dallas’ play often reflects how Nowitzki is playing. In the three victories, Nowitzki is averaging 28.6 PPG, but that drops to 22.5 PPG in the two defeats. Jason Kidd also spread the ball very well in Game 5 by dropping 14 assists and getting everyone involved.

Portland loves to play at its rambunctious and energetic home court. The Blazers were 30-11 at the Rose Garden during the regular season compared to 18-23 on the road. The home team has won nine in a row in this matchup over the past two years. Portland would love a spark off the bench like it received from Brandon Roy in Game 4 when he scored 18 points in the fourth quarter and led the Trail Blazers back from 23 points down. Roy (9.4 PPG in series) finished with 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting in that contest. Game 5 was a different story for Roy who only scored five points on 2-of-7 shooting from the field. He is an important part of Portland’s offense and must get in a rhythm and play well. The Blazers’ new leader, LaMarcus Aldridge (20.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG in series), will have to battle down low with a tough defender Tyson Chandler. Aldridge only managed 12 points in the 93-82 defeat Monday.

Dallas has been good against the spread on the road notching a 27-16 ATS record (63%) this season. Even with the series at 3-2, the Mavs are 5-0 ATS in the series with nine straight ATS victories overall. Dallas is also 15-8 ATS (65%) against Northwest Division opponents. Portland, who is 24-18 ATS (57%) at home, is a surprising 3-10 ATS when being favored by 3.5 to 6 points. The Blazers have been hot as of late at home though, going 9-4 ATS in their past 13 home games. I think the trend of the home team winning will continue, and I like Portland to win in a close game that may come down to some free throws at the end in order to cover the four points.

Some more FoxSheets trends that lean toward the Blazers include:

Play Against - Underdogs (DALLAS) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball-handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's). (54-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.4%, +26.5 units. Rating = 2*).

PORTLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. The average score was PORTLAND 103.1, OPPONENT 90.7 - (Rating = 1*).

Nate McMillan is 50-32 ATS (61.0%, +14.8 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points as the coach of PORTLAND. The average score was PORTLAND 92.2, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 0*).

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers look to close out series with Hornets


LOS ANGELES LAKERS

at NEW ORLEANS HORNETS


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 6 – Los Angeles leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -5.5, Total: 184

The Lakers are breathing a little easier after Kobe Bryant played through his ankle injury and they pulled out a win in Game 5. Their return to New Orleans Thursday night certainly won’t be easy though.

In Tuesday night’s Game 5 win, Bryant played through a sprained ankle suffered in Game 4, logging only 28 minutes but scoring 19 points on 8-for-13 shooting. A better performance from Pau Gasol (16 points, eight rebounds), sharp-shooting from Derek Fisher (13 points on 5-for-6 FG, 2-for-3 from three), and Andrew Bynum’s low-post dominance (18 points, 10 rebounds) helped make up for the slightly hobbled Bryant. After falling behind by nine after the first quarter, L.A. controlled the game in a 106-90 win. The keys to the win were simple. The Lakers went to the line frequently and converted (25-30 FT), and they owned the boards, outrebounding the Hornets 42-25, including 15 offensive rebounds to New Orleans’ three.

There were some bright spots for the Hornets in Game 5. Shooting guard Marco Belinelli finally showed up, scoring 21 while shooting 8-for-14 from the field and 3-for-5 from three. The Lakers still haven’t been able to contain Chris Paul (24.4 PPG, 11.6 APG, 6.4 RPG in series), who had 20 points and 12 assists on Tuesday. But getting beat that badly on the boards is how you can shoot 49.3% from the field, and hit 10-of-21 threes, but still lose by 16.

With a chance to close out the series, Lakers head coach Phil Jackson says he’s open to giving Bryant more minutes if needed. But the fact is, if Gasol and Bynum outplay Emeka Okafor and Carl Landry as badly as they did in Game 5 (and from a talent standpoint, they should), L.A. should pull away before the final minutes.

Since the 2008 playoffs, the Lakers are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS when they have a chance to close out a series. I expect them to close out yet another one with ease. My pick is Los Angeles.

The FoxSheets provide some more ammunition for a Lakers win and cover, including:

Play On - Road favorites (LA LAKERS) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's). (159-100 since 1996, 61.4%, +49 units. Rating = 2*).

Eight of the past 11 meetings between these teams have finished Over the total, but this FoxSheets trend supports the Under for Thursday’s matchup.

L.A. LAKERS are 50-32 UNDER (61.0%, +14.8 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season. The average score was L.A. LAKERS 101.0, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - First Round

April 28, 2011

First Round Results

Favorites are 28-13-1 straight up
Underdogs are 26-14-2 against the spread
The 'under' stands at 27-15
Home teams are 32-10 straight up

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr. 16
Indiana Chicago (-12.5) 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Philadelphia Miami (-10.5) 97-89 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Atlanta (+9) Orlando 103-93 UNDERDOG OVER 181
Portland Dallas (-5) 89-81 FAVORITE UNDER 186

Sunday, Apr. 17
Memphis (+6.5) San Antonio 101-98 UNDERDOG OVER 195.5
New Orleans (+11) L.A. Lakers 109-100 UNDERDOG OVER 184.5
New York Boston (-6) 87-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 197.5
Denver Oklahoma City (-6) 107-103 UNDERDOG OVER 206

Monday, Apr. 18
Philadelphia Miami (-9) 94-73 FAVORITE UNDER 190
Indiana Chicago (-11) 96-90 UNDERDOG UNDER 192

Tuesday, Apr. 19
New York Boston (-6.5) 96-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 192.5
Atlanta Orlando (-9.5) 88-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 182.5
Portland Dallas (-4) 101-89 FAVORITE OVER 184.5

Wednesday, Apr. 20
Denver Oklahoma City (-4.5) 106-89 FAVORITE UNDER 206.5
Memphis San Antonio (-8) 93-87 UNDERDOG UNDER 193.5
New Orleans L.A. Lakers (-11.5) 87-79 UNDERDOG UNDER 185.5

Thursday, Apr. 21
Chicago (-3.5) Indiana 88-84 FAVORITE UNDER 189.5
Miami (-4.5) Philadelphia 100-94 FAVORITE OVER 185
Dallas Portland (-5.5) 97-92 UNDERDOG OVER 187.5

Friday, Apr. 22
Boston (+3) New York 113-96 UNDERDOG OVER 191
Orlando Atlanta (+1.5) 88-84 UNDERDOG UNDER 180
L.A. Lakers (-5) New Orleans 100-86 FAVORITE OVER 180

Saturday, Apr. 23
Chicago Indiana (+4.5) 89-84 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Dallas Portland (-4) 84-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 187
San Antonio Memphis (-2) 91-88 FAVORITE UNDER 191
Oklahoma City (+5) Denver 97-94 UNDERDOG UNDER 208

Sunday, Apr. 24
Miami Philadelphia (+5.5) 86-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 188.5
Boston (-3.5) New York 101-89 FAVORITE UNDER 194
Orlando Atlanta (+2) 88-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 178.5
L.A. Lakers New Orleans (+6) 93-88 UNDERDOG UNDER 183.5

Monday, Apr. 25
San Antonio Memphis (+1.5) 104-86 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Portland Dallas (-5) 93-82 FAVORITE UNDER 184
Oklahoma City Denver (-3) 104-101 PUSH UNDER 205.5

Tuesday, Apr. 26
Indiana Chicago (-9) 116-89 FAVORITE OVER 186.5
Atlanta Orlando (-7) 101-76 FAVORITE UNDER 178.5
New Orleans L.A. Lakers (-9.5) 106-90 FAVORITE OVER 183

Wednesday, Apr. 27
Philadelphia Miami (-11) 97-91 UNDERDOG OVER 187
Memphis San Antonio (-7) 110-103 (OT) PUSH OVER 190
Denver Oklahoma City (-7) 100-97 UNDERDOG UNDER 205

Thursday, Apr. 28
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 29
San Antonio Memphis

Saturday, Apr. 30
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers
Portland Dallas

Sunday, May 1
Memphis San Antonio




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/27/11 2-*3-*1 40.00% -*650 Detail
04/26/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/25/11 3-*1-*2 75.00% +*950 Detail
04/24/11 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
04/23/11 6-*2-*0 75.00% +*1900 Detail
04/22/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/21/11 4-*1-*1 80.00% +*1450 Detail
04/20/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/19/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/18/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
04/17/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% -*200 Detail
04/16/11 2-*6-*0 25.00% -*2300 Detail
Totals 40-*34-*4 54.05% +1300

Thursday, April 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Orlando - 7:30 PM ET Atlanta +1.5 500
Atlanta - Over 179 500

L.A. Lakers - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans +5.5 500
New Orleans - Under 183 500

Dallas - 10:30 PM ET Dallas +4 500
Portland - Over 182.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Memphis tries to finish off Spurs on Friday


SAN ANTONIO SPURS

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 6 – Memphis leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Friday, 9:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Memphis -3, Total: 190

Memphis was just seconds away from winning its first-ever playoff series on Wednesday, before the Spurs hit two shots in the final 2.2 seconds to force overtime and win Game 5. The Grizzlies get a second chance to advance when they host the Spurs on Friday.

Coming so close to advancing and not coming through, Memphis will be devastated if it doesn’t recover and finish off the Spurs in Game 6. Very few people will give the Grizzlies a chance in Game 7 if it gets that far. After scoring just 11 points in Game 4, Zach Randolph recorded his third 20-point performance of the series, with 26 points and 11 rebounds in Game 5. Marc Gasol continued his strong series, grabbing 17 rebounds and scoring 11 points. Memphis has done an excellent job guarding the perimeter in this series, holding the Spurs to 31 percent shooting from three-point land.

After Gary Neal’s shot sent Game 5 into OT, the Spurs outscored Memphis 13-6 to force Game 6. Manu Ginobili was outstanding, hitting a shot with 2.2 seconds left to pull the Spurs within one, and scoring 33 points to lead all scorers. If San Antonio continues to get scoring from Ginobili, and Tony Parker can take care of the ball like he did in Game 5 (nine assists, one turnover), then the Spurs will be back in San Antonio for Game 7.

Having been brought back from the dead, the Spurs look ready to take advantage of their second chance. If overtime of Game 5 is any indication, Memphis might just be too shell-shocked to regain its composure. Even head coach Lionel Hollins said his team was not in the game mentally after allowing the Spurs to force the extra session. We will find out quickly just where the Grizzlies psyche is in Game 6, but I’m guessing that they will be unable to recover. I’m taking San Antonio plus the points to force Game 7.

The FoxSheets give another reason to side with the Spurs:

SAN ANTONIO is 21-11 ATS (65.6%, +8.9 Units) in road games after playing a game as favorite this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 101.1, OPPONENT 99.6 - (Rating = 1*).

Seven of the past 10 meetings between these teams have finished Over the total and this FoxSheets trend also expects the Over to occur on Friday night.

SAN ANTONIO is 14-5 OVER (73.7%, +8.5 Units) as a road underdog this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 101.5, OPPONENT 104.3 - (Rating = 1*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Memphis Grizzlies, Spurs Game 6

There have only been three times in the history of the NBA playoffs that a No. 8 seed has knocked off a No. 1 seed, and only once has it come in a best of seven series. On top of that, the Memphis Grizzlies have never won a postseason series in team history.

Needless to say, the Grizz have their work cut out for them to beat history, and if they're going to do it once and for all, their best chance is to beat the San Antonio Spurs at home on Friday night. This NBA betting battle at FedEx Forum will take place at 6:00 p.m. (PT) with San Antonio trying to level the series that is 3-2 in Memphis' favor.

However, the Spurs should really count their lucky stars that they are even still in this series. They needed a furious fourth-quarter rally just to get into overtime in Game 5 against Memphis on Wednesday night before taking care of business in the bonus period by outscoring the Grizzlies, 13-6.

This might have been just what the doctor ordered though for the boys in silver and black. Sure, it was a tough-fought victory, but the Spurs got great games out of Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. The Argentine scored 33 points and had six assists with six boards, clearly the best game that he has had in the playoffs this year. Parker's 24 points and nine assists were both his best numbers of the series as well.

Tim Duncan had a double-double, and the bench pitched in with some solid contributions to boot.

Memphis has gotten a mammoth series out of Zach Randolph, their leading scorer from the regular season. Randolph is just shy of 20 PPG in this series, and he had 26 points, 11 boards and six assists on Wednesday in the OT thriller, giving him his second double-double of the series.

Marc Gasol has been a double-double machine against the Spurs, averaging 14.6 PPG and 12.2 RPG. Officially, Gasol has only had two double-doubles, but he's grabbed at least nine boards and scored at least nine points in all five games.

The real difference maker has been Mike Conley, Jr. The much heralded, yet highly criticized point guard from Ohio State is definitely proving his worth in this series. Conley has scored at least 13 points in all of his games, and he had a series-high 20 on Wednesday to go with five rebounds and five assists.

At just 23 years old, Conley is standing toe-to-toe with Parker and Ginobili, and if this keeps up, Memphis is going to be very, very hard to knock off.

It's just really hard to ignore the NBA trends in this game. The Spurs are just 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, and they are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 clashes with Memphis. San Antonio was very, very lucky to escape with a push on Wednesday night, something that provided NBA betting fans of the Grizzlies with a horrible beat.

On top of that, Memphis had the best ATS record in the league in the regular season at 52-29-1, and now is 4-0-1 ATS in the playoffs.

The Grizzlies are one-point favorites to finish off the Spurs once and for all. The total has been lined at 190 ½.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Playoff Notes

April 28, 2011


Those following the NBA on Wednesday this week watched Miami and Oklahoma City advance to the conference semifinals by defeating Philadelphia and Denver in five games respectively. Another squad, Memphis, had an opportunity to move on but it couldn’t close the deal at San Antonio. The Grizzlies watched the Spurs hit two clutch jumpers in the final 2.2 seconds, including a 3-pointer by rookie Gary Neal at the buzzer which forced overtime.

Sure enough, San Antonio carried over the momentum in the extra session and outscored Memphis 13-6 for the Game 5 win. Some bettors might’ve earned a win with the Spurs as 6 ½-point favorites, which definitely goes into the bad beat category. Total bettors also playing the ‘under’ are probably a little steamed too considering the total was 189 and the two teams only had 133 points (68-65) after three quarters. The fourth quarter needed 56 and the pair put up 61 points but 15 of those came in the last half minute.

Those setbacks are unfortunate but gamblers betting the Association on a regular basis see those things happen all the time and the losses always seem to linger longer. While those were tough to stomach, bettors who had the ‘under’ (187.5) in Game 5 between Miami and Philadelphia probably aren’t big fans of Dwyane Wade these days.

The ‘under’ looked decent at half when Miami led 45-42 at the break but catching 101 point is still very doable. The duo had a decent third quarter but the game turned into your typical playoff possession game late. The Heat led 95-91 with less than 10 seconds and Philadelphia missed a late jumper, with the rebound going to Wade. The 76ers decided not to foul but Wade not only dribbled out the ball, he turned it up a notch and ran down the court for an uncontested dunk as Philly players just watched him flush away ‘under’ winners.

As always in the sports betting world, somebody was upset and somebody happy. Time to have amnesia and fast forward to tonight’s Game 6 between the Grizzlies and Spurs.

San Antonio is trying to become the ninth team in NBA history come back from a 3-1 deficit while Memphis is hoping to be the fourth No. 8 seed in the Association to beat a No. 1 seed in a playoff series.

Despite losing on Wednesday, the oddsmakers have installed the Grizzlies as three-point favorites for Game 6. This season, Memphis has gone 27-8 straight up and 23-12 against the spread when listed as a home favorite and that includes wins and covers in Game 3 and 4 of this series.

Did the Spurs leave everything out on the court in Game 5? Or can we expect Greg Popovich’s club to bounce back and force a decisive Game 7 on Saturday? VegasInsider.com handicapper and contributor Marc Lawrence has dug up some nice trends on San Antonio in this spot.

“The Spurs will take the court knowing that No. 1 seeds that are underdogs against division opponents are 23-10 ATS in the playoffs, including 5-0 ATS in Game 6 when playing off a win. And San Antonio is 18-8 SU and ATS as a division ‘dog of less than three points off a win, including 4-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs, look for the Spurs to extend this series to seven games here tonight," explained Lawrence.

Those trends are sound, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that San Antonio has dropped four straight games at Memphis and two were by double digits.

The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in this series but it could easily be 4-1 to the ‘under’ if it wasn’t for some late buckets and a lot of luck. The total for Game 6 is hovering between 189 and 190 points. Make a note that Memphis has watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 when it’s listed as a home favorite.

Tip-off is slated for 9:05 p.m. EST with ESPN providing coverage.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - First Round

April 28, 2011

First Round Results

Favorites are 29-15-1 straight up
Underdogs are 28-15-2 against the spread
The 'under' stands at 29-16
Home teams are 33-12 straight up

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr. 16
Indiana Chicago (-12.5) 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Philadelphia Miami (-10.5) 97-89 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Atlanta (+9) Orlando 103-93 UNDERDOG OVER 181
Portland Dallas (-5) 89-81 FAVORITE UNDER 186

Sunday, Apr. 17
Memphis (+6.5) San Antonio 101-98 UNDERDOG OVER 195.5
New Orleans (+11) L.A. Lakers 109-100 UNDERDOG OVER 184.5
New York Boston (-6) 87-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 197.5
Denver Oklahoma City (-6) 107-103 UNDERDOG OVER 206

Monday, Apr. 18
Philadelphia Miami (-9) 94-73 FAVORITE UNDER 190
Indiana Chicago (-11) 96-90 UNDERDOG UNDER 192

Tuesday, Apr. 19
New York Boston (-6.5) 96-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 192.5
Atlanta Orlando (-9.5) 88-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 182.5
Portland Dallas (-4) 101-89 FAVORITE OVER 184.5

Wednesday, Apr. 20
Denver Oklahoma City (-4.5) 106-89 FAVORITE UNDER 206.5
Memphis San Antonio (-8) 93-87 UNDERDOG UNDER 193.5
New Orleans L.A. Lakers (-11.5) 87-79 UNDERDOG UNDER 185.5

Thursday, Apr. 21
Chicago (-3.5) Indiana 88-84 FAVORITE UNDER 189.5
Miami (-4.5) Philadelphia 100-94 FAVORITE OVER 185
Dallas Portland (-5.5) 97-92 UNDERDOG OVER 187.5

Friday, Apr. 22
Boston (+3) New York 113-96 UNDERDOG OVER 191
Orlando Atlanta (+1.5) 88-84 UNDERDOG UNDER 180
L.A. Lakers (-5) New Orleans 100-86 FAVORITE OVER 180

Saturday, Apr. 23
Chicago Indiana (+4.5) 89-84 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Dallas Portland (-4) 84-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 187
San Antonio Memphis (-2) 91-88 FAVORITE UNDER 191
Oklahoma City (+5) Denver 97-94 UNDERDOG UNDER 208

Sunday, Apr. 24
Miami Philadelphia (+5.5) 86-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 188.5
Boston (-3.5) New York 101-89 FAVORITE UNDER 194
Orlando Atlanta (+2) 88-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 178.5
L.A. Lakers New Orleans (+6) 93-88 UNDERDOG UNDER 183.5

Monday, Apr. 25
San Antonio Memphis (+1.5) 104-86 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Portland Dallas (-5) 93-82 FAVORITE UNDER 184
Oklahoma City Denver (-3) 104-101 PUSH UNDER 205.5

Tuesday, Apr. 26
Indiana Chicago (-9) 116-89 FAVORITE OVER 186.5
Atlanta Orlando (-7) 101-76 FAVORITE UNDER 178.5
New Orleans L.A. Lakers (-9.5) 106-90 FAVORITE OVER 183

Wednesday, Apr. 27
Philadelphia Miami (-11) 97-91 UNDERDOG OVER 187
Memphis San Antonio (-7) 110-103 (OT) PUSH OVER 190
Denver Oklahoma City (-7) 100-97 UNDERDOG UNDER 205

Thursday, Apr. 28
Orlando Atlanta (-1.5) 84-81 UNDERDOG UNDER 179
L.A. Lakers (-5) New Orleans 98-80 FAVORITE UNDER 182
Dallas (+4) Portland 103-96 UNDERDOG OVER 182.5

Friday, Apr. 29
San Antonio Memphis

Sunday, May 1
Memphis San Antonio




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/28/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/27/11 2-*3-*1 40.00% -*650 Detail
04/26/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/25/11 3-*1-*2 75.00% +*950 Detail
04/24/11 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
04/23/11 6-*2-*0 75.00% +*1900 Detail
04/22/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/21/11 4-*1-*1 80.00% +*1450 Detail
04/20/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
04/19/11 2-*4-*0 33.33% -*1200 Detail
04/18/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
04/17/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% -*200 Detail
04/16/11 2-*6-*0 25.00% -*2300 Detail
Totals 44-*36-*4 55.00% +2200

Friday, April 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 9:00 PM ET Memphis -3 500
Memphis - Under 189 500

[StarDust Bum]

Boston Celtics meet Miami Heat in NBA odds series

The Boston Celtics meet the Miami Heat in the second round of the NBA playoffs, by far the most anticipated matchup to this point in the season.

The series starts Sunday and Bookmaker.com has the Heat as 4 ½-point home favorites with a total of 182 points. They’re minus 160 in the series price with Boston plus 140.

Miami was plus 155 to win the Eastern Conference before the playoffs began. That only trailed Chicago (plus 130) and was directly ahead of Boston (plus 230). Future odds will be updated shortly.

The Celtics (60-26 straight-up, 40-44-2 against the spread) saw their conference odds tumble after struggling down the stretch in the regular season (10-11 SU, 9-12 ATS) for the second consecutive year. They shook off last year’s malaise to make the NBA Finals.

This year was supposed to be tougher facing an upstart Knicks team in the first round that had two legitimate superstars in Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. However, Stoudemire and point guard Chauncey Billups both had key injuries and the Celtics survived shaky Game 1 and 2 performances for a four-game sweep (2-2 ATS).

The two games in New York were the sign that the Celtics won’t go easily in these playoffs. They averaged 107 PPG, finally getting their offense going after breaking 100 points just five times in the prior 22 games.

The Celtics have four All-Stars in Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo and it often doesn’t matter who’s on the court with them when they’re clicking.

Kendrick Perkins used to be the final ‘starting five’ member, but he was shipped to Oklahoma City at the trade deadline. Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic came in return, but both are riding the bench and making little impact. The Celtics veterans openly complained about the Perkins trade, but won’t continue to gripe as long as they’re winning.

Veteran center Jermaine O’Neal was a godsend in the first round. His numbers were modest (5.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG), but he gave a good effort defensively with 10 blocked shots. He needs to keep it up with Shaquille O’Neal (calf) still not fully practicing and doubtful for the opener.

The Heat (62-25 SU and 42-44-1 ATS) dispatched the Philadelphia 76ers 4-1 in the first round, but had more trouble than expected. Victories in Games 1, 3 and 5 were all too close for comfort. Miami also failed down the stretch in Game 4 (86-82 loss) in which Philly avoided the sweep.

Coach Erik Spoelstra has come up with a game-plan late in contests – get the ball to Wade. He’s the leader of the team and James has never been a great finisher, especially in the playoffs with Cleveland.

Miami is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games, but just 13-10 ATS. That includes going 2-3 ATS last round.

The ‘Big 3’ of LeBron James (24.2 PPG), Dwyane Wade (22.2 PPG) and Chris Bosh (19.8 PPG) carried the team offensively last round. That’s been happening all year, but it’s worrisome when the fourth-leading scorer is James Jones at 7.6 PPG.

The matchups for this series are intriguing. Boston dominated the first three meetings, going 3-0 SU and ATS, including opening night in Boston (88-80) when Miami’s hype was in full force after signing James and Bosh.

Miami did get a big 100-77 win in the last meeting on April 10. Boston coach Doc Rivers decided to rest his starters the next night at Washington, basically conceding home court advantage in this round to the Heat. He may regret that decision come Game 7 on May 16.

Pierce has a lot of experience guarding James the last few years in the playoffs. Boston knocked out James and Cleveland in the conference semis in 2008 and last year. Pierce’s offense can suffer some from the physical toll of guarding James and he’s coming off another tough assignment in New York’s Anthony.

Garnett matches up well with Bosh, with each having similar builds and offensive games. Allen is still a very good defender at age 35, but he’ll need help with Wade. Both teams aren’t expecting much scoring from the center position.

Boston’s biggest mismatch is whoever checks Rajon Rondo. He’s at his best when creating opportunities for teammates, averaging 12 APG last series. Miami point Mike Bibby was awful against Philly and Mario Chalmers will get a lot of minutes, especially for defensive purposes.

The loss of Perkins could haunt Boston as James and Wade used to pay a physical price for driving to the hoop. That’s not as feared now even with Jermaine O’Neal playing hard.

Boston will have had a week between games. That would be too much for other teams, but its veterans need all the rest they can get.

The Celtics bench is slightly better on paper, but Glen Davis need to find his mojo offensively and the same for Green and Delonte West.

Boston gets the coaching edge with Rivers having the full faith of his players. Spoelstra is pushing the right buttons, but will the team start to question his authority again if Boston takes control early?

This looks like a very tight series, with the home court the decider.

Prediction: Heat in seven