The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/08/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
05/07/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
05/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/04/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
05/03/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/02/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/01/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
Totals 15-*13-*0 53.57% +350

Monday, May 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 7:00 PM ET Boston +1.5 500
Boston - Over 181 500

Oklahoma City - 9:30 PM ET Memphis -2.5 500
Memphis - Over 198 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Chicago Bulls back home to face Hawks

The Chicago Bulls are getting all they can handle and more from the Atlanta Hawks in their exciting second-round series. It’s all tied 2-2 with Game 5 taking place Tuesday night in the Windy City.

The Don Best odds screen has Chicago as 8 ½-point home favorites with a total of 181 points. TNT will have the evening’s only game at 5:00 p.m. (PT) since the L.A. Lakers were unceremoniously swept by Dallas.

The Bulls weren’t supposed to struggle after winning an NBA-best 62 regular season games. However, they were fortunate to get by Indiana in five games and this series is now down to a best-of-three, with Chicago at least playing two at home.

The teams split the first two games in Chicago. Atlanta had a shocking 103-95 win in Game 1 as 9 ½-point underdogs. The Bulls responded in Game 2 with an 86-73 victory, ‘covering’ the nine-point spread.

The series shifted to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday. League-MVP Derrick Rose poured in 44 points and was an eye-popping 16-of-27 from the field. Chicago had arguably its most impressive win in the playoffs, 99-82 as 2 ½-point road favorites.

The Hawks had their back against the wall Sunday at home and it was their turn to show toughness. The game was knotted at 84-84 with just over four minutes left before a 16-4 run to close the game. Atlanta won 100-88 as 3 ½-point dogs.

The 188 combined points scored in Game 4 went ‘over’ the 178 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 2-0 the last two games and 3-1 this series.

Coach Larry Drew decided to go bigger last game with Jason Collins starting at center and Al Horford and Josh Smith moving to power and small forward respectively. Collins only played 12 minutes, but burly Zaza Pachulia had 26 minutes off the pine. Small forward Marvin Williams was the odd man out with just 15 bench minutes.

Smith had a monster game of 23 points, 16 rebounds and eight assists after playing out-of-control most of the series. Guard Joe Johnson also had 24 points and Horford 20. Point guard Jeff Teague and sixth-man Jamal Crawford added 12 each.

Those five guys account for 86.5 percent of team scoring this series. Teague is the second leading scorer (16 PPG) after taking over for the injured Kirk Hinrich, but there’s a question whether he can keep it up. Another player needs to step up offensively on Tuesday and Williams (4.8 PPG this series) is the most likely candidate.

Both teams are 2-2 against the spread this series. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in the playoffs after going just 37-45 in the regular season. Chicago is 4-5 ATS this postseason after 49-31-2 in the regular season.

Coach Tom Thibodeau needs to regroup and get back to basics, namely defense and rebounding. This was the second-best defensive team in the regular season (91.3 PPG). The Bulls allowed only two of their prior 22 opponents to hit the century mark before this series. Atlanta has done it twice already.

Chicago was the best rebounding team in the regular season (5.8 differential per game). It out-rebounded Atlanta a total of 105-73 in the two playoff wins. The offensive boards were a big factor (32-19). The rebounding totals were dead even (74-74) in the two losses.

Rose is averaging a whopping 31.4 PPG this series. His field shooting is 43.4 percent, but it’s 38.4 percent (33-of-86) if Game 3 is thrown out. He’s averaging 9.3 assists in the four games, but the next leading scorers are Luol Deng (13.8 PPG) and Carlos Boozer (11.5 PPG). There needs to be better balance from here on out.

Chicago is not listing any injuries, although Boozer (toe) and Rose (ankle) are both playing at less than 100 percent. Hinrich is not expected to play at all this series.

Game 6 will go back to Philips Arena in Atlanta on Thursday. ESPN will have the coverage beginning at 5:00 p.m. (PT).

[StarDust Bum]

Game 5 - Hawks at Bulls

May 9, 2011


The lone game on the Tuesday NBA card takes place in the Windy City as the Bulls return home looking to break a 2-2 deadlock with the Hawks. Atlanta bounced back from a blowout loss in Game 3 to run Chicago out in Sunday's Game 4. Josh Smith led the charge for the Hawks with a 23-point, 16-rebound effort, as Atlanta outscored Chicago in the final quarter, 33-19 to cash outright as 3 ½-point underdogs.

After shooting 47% in the Game 3 setback, the Hawks nailed 49% of their shots from the field on Sunday to even the series. Past Smith's tremendous game, Joe Johnson and Al Horford combined for 44 points on 18-for-25 shots, while Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford each chipped in 12 points apiece. Atlanta's defense stifled Derrick Rose as the league MVP missed 20 shots from the floor after a career-high 44 points in Game 3. Rose still put up 34 points and 10 assists on Sunday, but the Chicago bench scored just 14 points after tallying 44 points in Game 3.

With the series shifting back to Chicago on Tuesday, the Bulls hope to ride one of their more reliable trends this season coming off a defeat. In this situation, Tom Thibodeau's team is 10-1 SU/ATS since January 14 when the Bulls lost their last contest with the only setback coming at Portland in early February. Chicago owns a 5-1 mark to the 'under' the last six opportunities after allowing 100 or more points, including an 'under' in the Game 2 blowout of Atlanta.

This is the 15th occurrence since 2009 with a series tied at 2-2 heading to a Game 5. The previous 14 instances saw the home team favored, which is the case again on Tuesday for the Bulls. The home squad has dominated in this role with a 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS mark, including the Lakers and Mavericks rolling in this scenario in the first round of this season's playoffs.

HOME FAVS WITH SERIES TIED AT 2-2 SINCE '09
ROUND/YR RESULT LINE ATS RESULT
QTR/09 ATL 106, MIA 91 -6 W
QTR/09 ORL 91, PHI 78 -8.5 W
QTR/09 BOS 106, CHI 104 (OT) -7.5 L
QTR/09 LAL 103, DEN 94 -6 W
SEMI/09 LAL 118, HOU 78 -12 W
SEMI/09 BOS 92, ORL 88 -2 W
QTR/10 MIL 91, ATL 87 -9 L
QTR/10 LAL 111, OKC 87 -6 W
QTR/10 PHX 107, POR 88 -7.5 W
SEMI/10 BOS 120, CLE 88 -7.5 L
CONF/10 LAL 103, PHX 101 -7.5 L
NBAF/10 BOS 92, LAL 86 -2 W
QTR/11 LAL 106, NOR 90 -9.5 W
QTR/11 DAL 93, POR 82 -5 W
*HOME TEAMS IN BOLD



Behind Dallas (9-0-1 ATS) and Memphis (7-1-1 ATS), Larry Drew's Hawks own the third-best playoff ATS record by covering seven of 10 postseason games (all as underdogs). After cashing the 'under' in five of six games against Orlando in the first round, Atlanta is 3-1 to the 'over' in this round. Dating back to late March, the Hawks are 7-2 to the 'under' off a victory, including a 4-1 mark in the postseason.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David comments on the fluctuation of the totals in this series, "Oddsmakers have been toying with the total on this series from the opening game and the adjustments have continued for Tuesday's affair. The 'over/under' on Game 5 is hovering around 181 points, which is the same number we saw in Game 2 at the United Center. The reason for the spike on the line is the Hawks' offense, which blew up in Game 1 (103) and then again in Game 4 (100) at home on Sunday."

David points out the inconsistency of the Hawks throughout the postseason, "In this year's playoffs, we know one thing about Atlanta. After this team blew up with triple-digits, they've come back to life with 82 and 73 points. Should we expecting something different on Tuesday? The team total on Atlanta is listed at 86 points and betting the 'under' seems very likely. Especially, when you're playing a Bulls' squad that is arguably the best defensive club in the league."

The Bulls have compiled a 40-6 SU mark at the United Center this season, while going 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS as a home favorite off a loss. The Hawks look to capitalize off the Game 4 victory, but that task will be tough as Atlanta owns a 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS ledger this season as a road 'dog off a victory.

Chicago is listed as an 8 ½-point favorite at most spots, but that number is slowly moving up to 9. The total is set at 181, as the game will tip off at 8:05 PM EST and be seen on TNT.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 10, 2011

Second Round Results


Favorites are 10-6 straight up
Favorites are 10-6 against the spread
The 'over' is 12-4
Home teams are 9-7

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Memphis (+6.5) Oklahoma City 114-101 UNDERDOG OVER 195
Boston Miami (-5) 99-90 FAVORITE OVER 181

Monday, May 2
Atlanta (+9) Chicago 103-95 UNDERDOG OVER 177.5
Dallas (+6) L.A. Lakers 96-94 UNDERDOG OVER 188.5

Tuesday, May 3
Boston Miami (-5) 102-91 FAVORITE OVER 181
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6.5) 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 197.5

Wednesday, May 4
Atlanta Chicago (-8.5) 86-73 FAVORITE UNDER 181
Dallas (+7) L.A. Lakers 93-81 UNDERDOG UNDER 188

Friday, May 6
Chicago (-2.5) Atlanta 99-82 FAVORITE OVER 178
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 98-92 FAVORITE OVER 187

Saturday, May 7
Oklahoma City Memphis (-3) 101-93 FAVORITE UNDER 200.5
Miami Boston (-3) 97-81 FAVORITE UNDER 183

Sunday, May 8
Chicago Atlanta (+3.5) 100-88 UNDERDOG OVER 179
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 122-86 FAVORITE OVER 187

Monday, May 9
Miami (-1.5) Boston 98-90 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 181
Oklahoma City (+2.5) Memphis 133-123 (3 OT) UNDERDOG OVER 198

Tuesday, May 10
Atlanta Chicago

Wednesday, May 11
Boston Miami
Memphis Oklahoma City

Thursday, May 12
Chicago Atlanta

Friday, May 12
Miami Boston
Oklahoma City Memphis

Sunday, May 15
Atlanta Chicago
Memphis Oklahoma City

Monday, May 16
Boston Miami




Winners in BOLD

[tech fan]

gl buddy

[StarDust Bum]

Bulls heavily favored to win Game 5 over Atlanta


ATLANTA HAWKS

at CHICAGO BULLS


NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 5 – Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -8.5, Total: 181

Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls look to use their rowdy fans at the United Center to regain the series lead over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5.

Josh Smith (14.7 PPG in playoffs) silenced the critics Sunday, by dropping 23 points and adding 16 rebounds with eight assists. People have never criticized Smith’s potential and ability, but rather his inconsistent play. Earlier in the series, Smith was settling for jump shots, but in the 100-88 victory Sunday, he took the ball to the rim using his uncanny jumping ability and filled-out, 6-foot-9 frame. Jeff Teague was solid once again while filling in for the injured Kirk Hinrich, scoring 12 points on 6-of-12 shooting. In the regular season Teague averaged 5.2 PPG and only played 13.8 MPG. In the series versus Chicago, Teague is averaging 16.0 PPG and playing 41.5 MPG. Teague, who is shooting 52 percent in the series, has been very effective in letting the game come to him and not forcing shots.

Derrick Rose had a nice line if you were to just peek in the newspaper and see 34 points and 10 assists. The problem was that Rose attempted 32 shots, only making 12 of them. This left the critics discussing if Rose should shoot less since he is technically a point guard. Rose didn’t have much help that night with the Bulls only shooting 3-of-16 from three-point land and the usually sharp shooting Kyle Korver going 0-for-5 from downtown. Carlos Boozer (10.7 PPG in playoffs) played well in Game 4, scoring 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting. Luol Deng must return to form to give Rose some help in the half-court offense. Deng averaged 17.4 PPG in the regular season but has only scored 20 points combined in the past two games, making just 8-of-24 shots from the floor.

Atlanta has been terrific against the spread during the postseason (7-3 ATS), but in the past three years they are just 2-9 ATS in the second round of the playoffs. The Hawks hopefully will not come out flat as they have most of the year following a win of 10+ points (8-14 ATS). Chicago is 3-11 ATS in its past 11 home games, but 12-3 ATS following an upset loss. The Bulls are also 26-19 ATS at home and 13-8 ATS against Southeast Division opponents. I think Chicago is going to play very well, but the Hawks have shown too much fight to lose by double digits. I like the Bulls to win straight up, but Atlanta to win against the spread. Some more FoxSheets trends supporting the Hawks to cover are:

ATLANTA is 24-13 ATS (64.9%, +9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs during the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 99.3, OPPONENT 94.2.

ATLANTA is 41-26 ATS (61.2%, +12.4 Units) against Central Division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 97.0, OPPONENT 94.6.

ATLANTA is 26-17 ATS (60.5%, +7.3 Units) after playing a game as an underdog this season. The average score was ATLANTA 92.5, OPPONENT 92.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, May 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta +8.5 500
Chicago - Over 181 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Boston Celtics do-or-die at Miami Heat

Miami is a 7-point home favorite to close out Boston in Game 5.
Ever since the Boston Celtics traded away Kendrick Perkins, they've looked like a team that was old and decrepit. Now, after months of scrutiny, the Eastern Conference champs are on the ropes, as they are in a do-or-die situation in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at the Miami Heat.

The Heat hold the 3-1 series edge and can close things out at home Wednesday night at 4:00 (PT) at AmericanAirlines Arena.

Boston's biggest problem has been finding a post presence. No, it's not that the Heat have really had a great level of play from anyone playing in the paint. But just having that extra dimension would have made things significantly different down the stretch of the season and in this series, and home court advantage could have possibly belonged to the C's.

Kevin Garnett has done everything that he can to keep his team in this series, but a 1-for-10 shooting night on Monday really might have signaled the death both of his career and of this most recent chapter in Celtics history.

KG, who will turn 35 years old next week, has had one great game in this series (Game 3 when Boston won) and three lousy ones (Games 1, 2 and 4 when Boston lost). If he can't figure out how to produce like he did in seasons past, the Celtics stand no chance of beating the NBA odds and getting back in this series.

Of course, potentially the biggest problem that head coach Doc Rivers and company has to deal with has nothing to do with age. Rajon Rondo's ugly elbow dislocation didn't cost him the end of Game 3 or any part of Game 4, but he is definitely not at his best right now, and it's showing.

Rondo, who only scored six points in Game 3, had 10 points and five assists in a very lackluster showing in Game 4.

The three big guns that the Heat have at their disposal all came up big when they had to in overtime of Game 4 against the Celtics on both sides of the court. They outscored Boston 12-4 in the extra frame and held the Celtics to just 59 points in the last 41 minutes of the duel.

Dwyane Wade scored 28 points and had nine boards in what amounted to be a fairly ho-hum game for him in this series. LeBron James rebounded from his 15-point night in Game 3 to come up with 35 points and 14 rebounds two nights later.

Even Chris Bosh, who scored just six points and admitted to being frazzled by the setting in Beantown, showed no signs of those issues and scored 20 points while bringing down 12 rebounds on the night.

After a dominating first part of the regular season which saw the Celtics win and cover three games in this series, the post-Perkins C's are 1-4 SU and ATS against the Heat. Boston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games. Miami is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the Atlantic Division, including its marks of 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in the playoffs.

Miami is a 7-point favorite on the NBA lines. The 'total' has been set at 181. Three of the first four games have gone 'over' in this series.

If there is a Game 6, it will be played back at TD Garden on Friday night.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Grizzlies, Thunder continue grueling series

The battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder is turning into a war of attrition as the series continues Wednesday night.

The Don Best odds screen has Oklahoma City as six-point home favorites with a total of 197 points. TNT will have the second half of its doubleheader at 6:30 p.m. (PT), with Miami trying to eliminate Boston in the opener.

This battle between the 8-seed Grizzlies and 4-seed Thunder is tied 2-2. Series odds have been adjusted and Memphis is +210 compared to Oklahoma City at -250. That’s mostly due to the home court as these teams are very evenly matched.

The last game was on Monday night, a triple-overtime affair. The home Grizzlies needed dramatic three-pointers to force the first two extra sessions. They finally ran out of steam in the third OT period, getting outscored 14-4 for a 133-123 Oklahoma City victory. It was a must-win for the Thunder, which could have been down 3-1.

The 256 combined points scored made a mockery of the 197 ½-point total. However, there were only 192 points scored in regulation, which would have gone ‘under.'

Monday’s marathon comes on the heels of the Game 3 thriller on Saturday. The Grizzlies rallied from a 15-point deficit late in the third quarter to send the game into overtime. They continued their surge with a 15-7 OT margin for a 101-93 win.

The series now returns to Oklahoma City where it began. The Thunder were upset by Memphis in the opener (114-101) before rebounding in Game 2 (111-102). Both contests were as 6 ½-point favorites.

The ‘over’ went 2-0 in the games in Oklahoma City and is 4-0 there in meetings between the teams this year.

Coach Scott Brooks has relied heavily on his stars this series with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook each averaging 29 PPG. Both played over 50 minutes last game and combined for 75 points, getting to the line 29 times (making 26).

Westbrook has been a lightning rod for criticism. He’s only shooting 40.8 percent from the field, 45.3 percent in the wins and 35.6 percent in the losses. That’s not a coincidence as the team plays much better when he takes quality shots.

Oklahoma City has gotten good contributions from James Harden (14.3 PPG) and Serge Ibaka (11.3 PPG). The problem is the next leading scorer is reserve guard Eric Maynor at just 5.8 PPG.

The Thunder have two non-scorers in the starting lineup in Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha. That puts a lot of pressure on the other guys to produce, mostly Durant and Westbrook. Perkins’ knee is clearly less than 100 percent, but he’s still battling hard and brings a rare toughness to the team.

Memphis has a similar issue as Oklahoma City, relying mostly on four players to score. Power forward Zach Randolph (26 PPG) has been the big gun. He’s only shooting 37.8 percent from the field, but he’s an incredible 41-of-46 from the line (89.1 percent), including 16-of-17 last game.

Coach Lionel Hollins has also gotten solid performances from big man Marc Gasol (18.8 PPG), point guard Mike Conley (18.3 PPG) and bench player O.J. Mayo (14.5 PPG). Memphis will continue to pound the ball down low and try to get the Thunder ‘bigs’ in foul trouble.

Memphis is 3-1-1 against the spread on the road in these playoffs (2-3 straight-up). It was 2-0-1 ATS in San Antonio, with the one ‘push’ a bad beat in overtime, losing 110-103 as seven-point dogs.

Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU at home this postseason, but just 2-3 ATS. It won a couple of tight home games with Denver, failing to ‘cover’ the spread.

The Don Best injury report is not listing any significant players for either team.

Game 6 will switch back to Memphis’ FedEx Forum on Friday. ESPN will have the broadcast with the time still to be announced. The Dallas Mavericks are already awaiting the winner and gaining valuable rest as each day passes.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Playoff Action

May 10, 2011


Following a pair of wild Game 4's on Monday night that went to overtime, the four clubs hit the court again on Wednesday under different circumstances. The Grizzlies and Thunder are knotted up at two games apiece after Oklahoma City rallied for a stunning triple-overtime victory at FedEx Forum. We'll start in South Florida as the Heat tries to cool off the Celtics one last time and move on to the Eastern Conference Finals with a win.

Celtics at Heat - 7:00 PM EST

Miami finally snapped an 11-game losing streak at TD Garden that dated back to 2007 with Monday's thrilling OT triumph, 98-90 to take a 3-1 series lead over Boston. The Heat has three shots to win one game over the feisty Celtics to advance, including a pair of contests at the American Airlines Arena where Miami has beaten the C's handily in the first two games of this series.

LeBron James hit several big shots down the stretch to cap off a 35-point night, while pulling down a game-high 14 rebounds. Dwyane Wade's step-back shot in overtime gave the Heat a six-point lead, as the Heat guard boosted his average in the series to 29 ppg. The third member of the Big Three, Chris Bosh, overcame a slow start to convert a handful of baskets in the extra session to give Miami its first win in four tries this season in Beantown.

The Celtics cooled off following a hot start from the field as Doc Rivers' squad tallied just 37 points after halftime. Paul Pierce was the only reliable scorer for Boston with 27 points, while Kevin Garnett couldn't duplicate his strong Game 3 performance (27 points) by getting held to one field goal and seven points in Game 4.

Now, Miami tries to shut the door on the most recent dynasty in the Eastern Conference with a win on Wednesday. The Celtics have not overcome a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs to win a series since 1981 against the Sixers in the Eastern Conference Finals (Boston eventually beat Houston to win the title). Since 2005, the Heat owns a 2-4 ATS record as a favorite in close-out games, including an 0-2 ATS mark against Philadelphia in the first round.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David points out that the 'over' was rolling on Monday before things slowed down, “Game 4 between Boston and Miami saw 59 points posted in the first quarter and 103 at the half but the pace wasn’t as hot as the shooting. Sure enough, the game got tight and we witnessed more misses than makes. Fortunately, ‘over’ bettors caught the extra session and benefited with 16 points.”

Several other numbers to keep an eye on for Game 5 include Boston's 5-1 SU/ATS ledger as a road underdog off a loss this season, with the only blemish coming in Game 2 at Miami. The Heat has put together a 13-2 SU and 9-6 ATS record as home 'chalk' off a road victory, while going 2-2 SU/ATS following an overtime contest. The Celtics took care of business after an overtime affair with a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark in the regular season.

David comments that the 'over' has cashed in the close-out situation this postseason, “If you believe the Heat will close the deal at home, don’t be surprised to see some points put up by the team that can afford to lose. Just look at what Dallas did to Los Angeles in Game 4 (122-86) of its recent sweep. Or you can revert back to Chicago in its Game 5 win (116-89) over Indiana when it exploded offensively.”

The Heat is listed as seven-point favorites, while the total is set at 181. Game 5 can be seen nationally on TNT.

Grizzlies at Thunder - 9:30 PM EST

Oklahoma City needed a bounce back effort after squandering a 16-point lead in Game 3's overtime setback at Memphis. The Thunder turned the tables in Game 4 by overcoming an 18-point deficit in a 133-123 triple-overtime triumph to even up the series at 2-2. The series now shifts back to Oklahoma City as the Grizzlies go for their third road win in five tries against the Thunder.

Memphis drilled several key shots by Mike Conley and Greivis Vasquez to extend the game, but Russell Westbrook put in a game-high 40 points in 51 minutes to lift the Thunder to victory. Kevin Durant played 57 minutes for Oklahoma City, while scoring 30 or more points for the fifth time in the postseason (35 points). The frontcourt of the Grizzlies dominated again thanks to Zach Randolph (34 points, 16 rebounds) and Marc Gasol (26 points, 21 rebounds), but Memphis was limited to 36% shooting from the floor.

The ATS loss by the Grizzlies was only the second suffered in the playoffs, dropping Memphis' ATS record to 7-2-1. Oklahoma City improved to 2-1-1 ATS as an underdog in the postseason, as Scott Brooks' club has eclipsing the 100-point mark for the seventh time in nine playoff games. The Thunder hasn't profited as a home favorite off a road victory by going 6-7 ATS, while the Grizzlies went 7-2 ATS when getting points on the highway off a home defeat.

The Thunder has played 12 overtime games this season, as Oklahoma City is just 3-8 ATS following a game that has gone past regulation, including a 1-4 ATS record at home. Memphis has seen its share of overtime action this season with nine contests, as the Grizzlies own a 3-4-1 ATS ledger in this situation.

Oklahoma City is listed as 6 ½-point favorites, while the total stands at 197. The game will be televised nationally on TNT.

[StarDust Bum]

Notes from the Book

May 11, 2011


Baseball Been Very Good.....

These are supposed to be the dog days of baseball for the sports books, but so far, the books are loving baseball and having a great first few weeks of the season. The problem is that when the players lose at a higher rate, they lose the churn factory of volume which may cause some of the books to show lower handle despite the higher win.

If a regular bettors bankroll for the week is $100 and he loses it quickly, it doesn’t leave them much of a chance to create more action. Normal circumstances have the bettor being able to churn that $100 into $300 or $400 worth of action over the course of a week showing a small win or loss. With the way it’s going now, the books should expect to see some slight drops in volume.

Part of the reason is that there are no whipping boys any more. You can’t just pick on the Pirates or Royals on a daily basis, nor can you blindly hit a three-game parlay by just taking the Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox like in years past. The pitching is better, less runs are being scored and games are tighter than ever.

Heat Are Who We Thought They Were, Crown Them!

We’ve come full circle on the Miami Heat index from being the clear cut overwhelming choice to win the championship when LeBron James made his announcement, went through some turmoil that caused skepticism, and now they are back on top in public opinion.

When James made that announcement, the Heat were 5/2 favorites (Bet $100 to win $250) to win the title. When the Heat started playing the blame game and pointing fingers at the coach, it was around the same time the Lakers kicked into gear which vaulted Los Angeles to the favorite and sent the Heat to as high as 5/1.

Now, with the Lakers gone, the Heat are 7/4 (Bet $100 to win $175) to win the NBA championship, a price much lower than when the season started even though they were expected to be in this situation. Their play, dominating at times, has validated all the initial trust on the early short price to begin the season.

While most basketball fans will be rooting against the Heat, a group of professional bettors here in town can’t wait until they spray the champagne. When rumors were circulating where James might take his talents to, this group took advantage of the Miami odds around town that were still on the board at 25 and 20/1.

Not every book offered lines on the NBA futures until James decision was announced, but a handful did so immediately after the 2010 NBA Finals. So needless to say, there will be a few books that will be rooting for the Heat Index to go cold quickly.

Because the Lakers are now out, so is a large portion of NBA bettors. Books can expect a 10% drop off in action from the last three year average of NBA Finals action the Lakers were involved in. Should the Heat get knocked off before the Finals, that number could fall even lower. It’s not that the Heat has that many fans, but they keep people’s attention just to see what they’ll do next with many rooting against them. Let’s face it, the Mavericks, Grizzlies and Thunder aren’t the most popular teams in the league and one of them will be in the Finals.

Champions League

With no Euro or World Cup coming up because it’s an odd numbered year, our summer fix of soccer will end with the UEFA Champions League final of Manchester United and Barcelona. The Hilton posted odds on the match immediately following their semi-final matches last week with Barcelona being a huge minus-200 favorite (Bet $200 to win $100) to win outright over the mighty Reds Devils.

Although soccer doesn’t generate the volume of other major sports, the last Cup action in June and July of 2010 were pretty large and the few hundred thousand in handle, and 16% win, will be missed during those months when baseball is the main source of action. June and July are usually the toughest months a sports book has with forecasted win being more unpredictable than any other set of months.

Sports Betting Systems

Last week I speculated about the impact of William Hill taking over CBS (Computerized Bookmaking Systems), the company that services many Las Vegas race and race sports books betting systems. I got quite a few calls on the matter from many different points of view, which makes the subject all the more interesting and warrants more discussion. Next week, we’ll explore all the options that Nevada sports books and bars have available to them in addition to CBS.

I also wanted to clarify something I mentioned last week regarding company financial records for the sports books. Under GCB (Gaming Control Board) regulations, CBS currently has to call their client to get approval should they need to enter the sports book's system or it becomes a violation. The hub operation usually keeps a hand written log for these types of activities which is most common when there is a system issue, stoppage or regular programming needs to be updated.

I also regret that I forgot to mention horse racing handicapper Richard Eng in my Kentucky Derby piece last week who was doing a free seminar at Terrible‘s, after naming several others. The last thing I would want was for Eng to feel slighted in any way because he has been such true friend to me over the last decade. The man has done countless favors for me over the years with promotions and lent his time and name to those efforts.

He probably didn’t even read it, but I just wanted him, and everyone, to know that it was just a short mental lapse. Eng is one of the top horse racing handicappers in all the land.

Over the summer I’ll also have a few series of articles on the origins of some of the current sports book directors around town. It’s a small community of people that many would be surprised how closely linked they all are. We’ve all heard of the six degrees of Kevin Bacon or the branches of Bill Walsh and Bill Belichick‘s trees, soon you’ll read about the roots of the bookies, many of which began in Pittsburgh.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 11, 2011


Second Round Results


Favorites are 11-6 straight up
Favorites are 11-6 against the spread
The 'over' is 12-5
Home teams are 10-7

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Memphis (+6.5) Oklahoma City 114-101 UNDERDOG OVER 195
Boston Miami (-5) 99-90 FAVORITE OVER 181

Monday, May 2
Atlanta (+9) Chicago 103-95 UNDERDOG OVER 177.5
Dallas (+6) L.A. Lakers 96-94 UNDERDOG OVER 188.5

Tuesday, May 3
Boston Miami (-5) 102-91 FAVORITE OVER 181
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6.5) 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 197.5

Wednesday, May 4
Atlanta Chicago (-8.5) 86-73 FAVORITE UNDER 181
Dallas (+7) L.A. Lakers 93-81 UNDERDOG UNDER 188

Friday, May 6
Chicago (-2.5) Atlanta 99-82 FAVORITE OVER 178
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 98-92 FAVORITE OVER 187

Saturday, May 7
Oklahoma City Memphis (-3) 101-93 FAVORITE UNDER 200.5
Miami Boston (-3) 97-81 FAVORITE UNDER 183

Sunday, May 8
Chicago Atlanta (+3.5) 100-88 UNDERDOG OVER 179
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 122-86 FAVORITE OVER 187

Monday, May 9
Miami (-1.5) Boston 98-90 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 181
Oklahoma City (+2.5) Memphis 133-123 (3 OT) UNDERDOG OVER 198

Tuesday, May 10
Atlanta Chicago (-9) 95-83 FAVORITE UNDER 180

Wednesday, May 11
Boston Miami
Memphis Oklahoma City

Thursday, May 12
Chicago Atlanta

Friday, May 12
Miami Boston
Oklahoma City Memphis

Sunday, May 15
Atlanta Chicago
Memphis Oklahoma City

Monday, May 16
Boston Miami




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Grizzlies-Thunder meet for Game 5 in OKC

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


NBA Western Conference Semifinals
Game 5 – Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -6.5, Total: 197.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder return home Wednesday to play the resilient Grizzlies in a pivotal Game 5.

Memphis needs to keep its spirits up after a heart-breaking 133-123, triple-overtime loss Monday to the Thunder. The Grizz fought back at the end of regulation with a deep three by Mike Conley to tie the game, and then tied the game again in the final seconds of the first overtime with an off-balance prayer from Greivis Vasquez with 9.4 seconds. The third overtime was set up by a tip-in by Marc Gasol who had 26 points and 21 rebounds. The Grizzlies finally came up short in the third overtime. Zach Randolph (23.1 PPG in playoffs) led the way with 34 points and added 16 rebounds. Memphis may have suffered a shot to the gut after a loss like that, but now know it can stick with the favored Thunder and handle whatever’s thrown its way.

The Thunder were a two-man show Monday with Russell Westbrook (26.1 PPG in playoffs) scoring 40 points and Kevin Durant (30.9 PPG in playoffs) adding 35 points and 13 rebounds. The critics have questioned Westbrook’s shot selection since he heaved up a whopping 33 shots and only finished with five assists. Many believe that Westbrook, who is supposed to be the point guard, should not be taking 13 more shots than Durant, who is one of the best scorers in the league. James Harden (12.1 PPG in playoffs) chipped in with 19 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists in the Game 4 win.

Memphis has been phenomenal as an underdog this year going 30-13 ATS and 9-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Thunder are an average 30-30 ATS as a favorite and just 4-4 ATS in this year’s playoffs. I truly think the Grizzlies are more than just a hot team right now with their consistent inside play of Gasol and Randolph. I like Memphis to win and take control of the series with a hard-fought victory.

Two more highly-rated FoxSheets trends leaning towards Memphis are:

MEMPHIS is 31-12 ATS (72.1%, +17.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 101.0, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*).

MEMPHIS is 28-10 ATS (73.7%, +17.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 99.8, OPPONENT 99.0 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Heat look to close out Celtics on Wednesday

BOSTON CELTICS

at MIAMI HEAT


NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 5 – Miami leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -7, Total: 181

Wednesday night in south Florida could either be the beginning of a courageous stand, or the end of an era for the defending Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics. Facing a 3-games-to-1 deficit, with a battered and bruised starting lineup, a point guard whose left arm would have sidelined most other mortals, and a road crowd eager to exact revenge for last year’s first-round shellacking suffered by the Heat, Doc Rivers’ team will put the meaning of the phrase “Celtics Pride” to the ultimate test.

To prevail in what is a must-win game, the Celtics must first shake the bitter aftertaste of an overtime loss in Game 4, a contest that they had numerous chances to win. Paul Pierce missed a fadeaway jumper as time expired at the end of regulation that could have won the game and evened the series at 2-2. Boston was uncharacteristically out of position in the half-court set for the final play that it wanted to execute. In the overtime, the Celtics looked fatigued and sloppy as they committed as many turnovers (four) as they scored points.

If bouncing back after winning a high-energy Game 3 was a concern, bouncing back off the Game 4 loss should be a greater concern for Boston. Thirty-four-year-old Kevin Garnett played 41 minutes on Monday night, scoring just seven points on 1-for-10 shooting. Thirty-five-year-old Ray Allen played 45 out of a possible 50 minutes, shooting just 5-for-12 on the night for 17 points. Chasing Dwyane Wade all over the court certainly did not make matters easier. Pierce, who tallied 45 minutes in the loss, led the team with 27 points, but committed two key turnovers in overtime.

Now the Celtics version of the big three must summon the energy and will to stave off elimination when their point guard, Rajon Rondo, is still slowed from his dislocated elbow suffered in Game 3. He finished with 10 points and five assists in 38 minutes, and with one good arm. Delonte West spelled Rondo and contributed 30 key minutes, but he was also plagued by two late turnovers near the end of the game, squandering precious possessions. As for Shaquille O’Neal, he only played four minutes. A shell of his former all-NBA self, speculation has been rampant that the end of the Celtics season could also mark the end of his Hall-of-Fame career. Head coach Rivers, who is not under contract beyond this season, hears that ticking clock grow more ominous by the game. Still, an aging, wounded squad remains dangerous in the eyes of Heat coach Erik Spoelstra. "We can expect their best," Spoelstra said. "We know we're getting their best effort and I'm sure they'll play well. We'll have to play better."

The Heat’s big three of Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James performed Monday as team president Pat Riley had dreamed they would when he orchestrated the off-season signings to bring the trio together. James and Wade scored 35 and 28 respectively, while Bosh chipped in with 20 points and 12 rebounds, including a key rebound and put-back in overtime which sealed the deal. James made a clutch three-point shot with two minutes to go in regulation that tied the game at 84, and was described as a back-breaker by Allen. Wade’s basket with 2:01 to go in overtime gave the team a six-point lead, robbing the sellout crowd of most of its hope. "We executed well down the stretch defensively and offensively," said Heat forward James Jones. "I think it was just our presence of mind, our determination.”

While Wade’s Heat went down to Boston in five games last spring, James’s squad, the Cleveland Cavaliers fell to the Celtics in six games in the conference semifinals. While each player is motivated by a need to exorcise postseason demons against Boston, they are also keenly aware of how dangerous the Celtics still are, adversity aside, and do not want to give Rivers’ team a second chance to make a championship impression. "This is not a team that you let your guard down against," Wade said. "No way," instantly chimed in James, as he stood on Wade's left. Which Garnett appears Wednesday night could go a long way towards determining whether the Celtics get to show up for a Game 6 Friday night (Friday the 13th of course) at home. Garnett’s 28-point, 18-rebound Game 3 performance dwarfed his abysmal seven-point, 10-rebound game Monday. The big ticket knows that the hour is late, and the margin for error is non-existent. "When our back is against the wall, that's when we show great resilience," Garnett said. "We'll see what we're made of."

The pick here is for Miami to win the toughest one of them all, the close-out game, on its home court. The following two FoxSheets trends support picking the Heat to win and cover.

Play On - Home teams (MIAMI) - when leading in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (54-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +29.8 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - poor foul-drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season. (192-119 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.7%, +61.1 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, May 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Boston +7.5 500
Miami - Over 181 500

Memphis - 9:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -6.5 500
Oklahoma City - Over 197 500