The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

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Playoff Results - First Round

April 18, 2011

First Round Results

Favorites are 5-3 straight up
Underdogs are 7-1 against the spread
The 'over' stands at 5-3
Home teams are 5-3 straight up



Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr. 16
Indiana Chicago (-12.5) 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Philadelphia Miami (-10.5) 97-89 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Atlanta (+9) Orlando 103-93 UNDERDOG OVER 181
Portland Dallas (-5) 89-81 FAVORITE UNDER 186

Sunday, Apr. 17
Memphis (+6.5) San Antonio 101-98 UNDERDOG OVER 195.5
New Orleans (+11) L.A. Lakers 109-100 UNDERDOG OVER 184.5
New York Boston (-6) 87-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 197.5
Denver Oklahoma City (-6) 107-103 UNDERDOG OVER 206

Monday, Apr. 18
Philadelphia Miami
Indiana Chicago

Tuesday, Apr. 19
New York Boston
Atlanta Orlando
Portland Dallas

Wednesday, Apr. 20
Denver Oklahoma City
Memphis San Antonio
New Orleans L.A. Lakers

Thursday, Apr. 21
Chicago Indiana
Miami Philadelphia
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 22
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Saturday, Apr. 23
Chicago Indiana
Dallas Portland
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Sunday, Apr. 24
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Monday, Apr. 25
San Antonio Memphis
Portland Dallas
Oklahoma City Denver

Tuesday, Apr. 26
Indiana Chicago
New York Boston
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, Apr. 27
Philadelphia Miami
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City

Thursday, Apr. 28
Chicago Indiana
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 29
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Saturday, Apr. 30
Indiana Chicago
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers
Portland Dallas

Sunday, May 1
Philadelphia Miami
New York Boston
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, April 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +9.5 500
Miami - Under 189 500

Indiana - 9:30 PM ET Indiana +12.5 500
Chicago - Over 193.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: NY Knicks get second chance at Celtics

The New York Knicks blew their opening playoff game at the Boston Celtics on Sunday. They now must rebound both physically and mentally for Game 2 on Tuesday night.

Early odds have Boston as 6 ½-point favorites with a total of 193 points. Those numbers are affected by the injury to New York point guard Chauncey Billups (more below). TNT will have the coverage from TD Banknorth Garden beginning at 4 p.m. (PT).

The Knicks (42-41 straight-up, 47-34-2 against the spread) played a solid Game 1 and found themselves up 85-82 with 37 seconds left after a Toney Douglas three-pointer. The Celtics faithful were in a state of panic, but that’s when their team went to work.

Boston coach Doc Rivers diagrammed an in-bounds play for a Kevin Garnett dunk. New York’s Carmelo Anthony was then called for a questionable offensive foul before Boston’s Ray Allen hit a gigantic three-pointer. Anthony and the Knicks had one more chance to win, but he missed his own trey with one second left.

The 87-85 final failed to ‘cover’ the six-point spread. Boston is now 5-0 SU against the Knicks this year, but just 2-3 ATS. One of those wins and ‘covers’ was a meaningless final-day regular season game when both teams rested players.

The 172 combined points scored was the slow pace Boston wanted and went way ‘under’ the 197 point total. The ‘under’ is 16-4-1 in Boston’s last 21 games.

Game 1 left open a lot of questions for both teams. Anthony had 15 points while shooting just 5-of-18 from the field, 1-of-11 in the second half. Teammate Amare Stoudemire had 28 points (12-of-18 shooting), but didn’t take a shot in the final two minutes.

Coach Mike D’Antoni has to figure out how to get the ball to Stoudemire late in contests as the Celtics were denying him the ball. D’Antoni may have a bigger problem with Billups (knee strain) leaving late in the fourth quarter and listed as doubtful for Tuesday.

Douglas will be the starter if Billups can’t go. He started nine games this year, but this would be his first playoff start. Billips was just 3-of-11 from the field (10 points), but he’s capable of breaking out at any moment. Douglas starting would also weaken bench scoring.

The Celtics (57-26 SU, 38-43-2 ATS) are breathing a sigh of relief, but have their own worrying signs. Their bench got outscored 23-8, with Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic combining for just four points in 22 minutes. Those were the two additions from Oklahoma City in the Kendrick Perkins trade.

Stoudemire presents a real matchup problem for Garnett at this stage of his career. If Boston spends too much time focusing on him defensively, it will leave other players open. Anthony, Douglas and especially Landry Fields (no points last game) will have to take advantage.

Boston’s Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo combined to shoot just 36 percent from the field last game (43 total points). Allen (9-of-15, 24 points) was the only star to find his stroke, but all the starters must play well with the bench a big work-in-progress.

Center Shaquille O’Neal (calf) missed last game and is doubtful again for Tuesday. He really could be used although Jermaine O’Neal (6-of-6 shooting, 12 points) had a nice start in 23 minutes.

Glen Davis struggled as the backup center, just two points in 25 minutes. He always gives maximum effort defensively, but is height-challenged and isn’t a threat to block / alter shots like Shaq. He also isn’t a physical intimidator like Perkins.

New York can’t afford to fall behind 2-0 in this series. Game 3 won’t be until Friday which means an extra day of rest if Billups and Shaq are out as expected.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting Preview: Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

The first round of the NBA Playoffs saw a couple of notable upsets in the opening games, but now it’s time to see if the underdogs can continue cashing money-line tickets.

Atlanta (45-38 straight up, 38-45 against the spread) shocked Orlando (52-31 SU, 35-47-1 ATS) in Saturday’s opener, a year after getting swept out of the postseason and losing all four games to the Magic by a combined 101 points.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds shows Orlando as an 8 ½-point home ‘chalk’ over Atlanta, while the total opened at 182 ½ before moving to 183 ½. NBA-TV will provide coverage of Tuesday’s Game 2 beginning at 4:35 p.m. PT from Amway Center.

The Hawks triumphed in Game 1 as an 8 ½-point road underdog, 103-93, while the combined 196 points eclipsed the 180 ½-point closing total. The ‘under’ had cashed the previous six meetings between these squads, and is now 19-7 the last 26 encounters.

Atlanta took control of the contest by outscoring Orlando in the second quarter, 38-29, and never trailed the rest of the game. The Hawks led by as many as 18 points at one time, and finished the contest with advantages in assists, 19-15, and turnovers forced, 18-9. Those 18 turnovers directly led to 21 points.

Atlanta shot a robust 51 percent (38-of-74) from the field, and 43 percent (6-of-14) from behind the arc. During one stretch of the second and third quarters, the Hawks shot a blistering 18-of-24 from the field.

Shooting guard Joe Johnson paced the offense with 25 points, five rebounds and five assists, while guard Jamal Crawford added 23. Center Al Horford contributed 16 points and six boards, while power forward Josh Smith had 15 and eight.

Orlando grabbed more rebounds than the Hawks, 40-29, and scored more points in the paint, 48-36. The Magic finished the game by shooting 45 percent (34-of-75) from the field, and 27 percent (6-of-22) from 3-point land.

Center Dwight Howard led all scorers with 46 points and 19 rebounds, becoming the first NBA player with at least 45 points and 15 boards to lose a playoff game since Houston’s Hakeem Olajuwon in 1987. Guard Jameer Nelson netted 27 points in the loss, while no other Orlando player reached double digits.

The Magic are just 10-13 when Howard takes 16 shots or more from the field. When the 25-year-old shoots 10 times or less from the field, Orlando maintains a 17-3 ledger. Howard was 16-of-23 from the field in Saturday’s setback, and 14-of-22 from the free-throw line.

Atlanta has seen the ‘under’ go 8-3 its last 11 games overall, and the ‘under’ is also 11-5 the previous 16 road endeavors. Orlando dropped to 2-8 ATS its past 10 home games.

Neither team is reporting any injuries heading into Tuesday’s Game 2.

[StarDust Bum]

Orlando needs a Game 2 win at home


ATLANTA HAWKS

at ORLANDO MAGIC



Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -8.5 Total: 183.5

Atlanta defeated Orlando 103-93 in Game 1 of this series despite allowing Dwight Howard to score 46 points and Jameer Nelson to score 27—the key was that the Hawks shut down the rest of the Magic shooters, as no other Orlando player had more than six points. In fact, Atlanta’s Jamal Crawford came off the bench to score 23 points for the Hawks and by himself outscored the rest of the Magic squad, 23-20. Howard and Nelson combined to shoot 26-for-41 (63%) from the field, the rest of the team shot 8-for-34 (24%). Atlanta, meanwhile was led by Joe Johnson’s 25 points.

Saturday marked a profound turnaround for an Atlanta team that lost its final six games of the regular season. Amidst the losing streak the Hawks began to resemble the team that got swept by Orlando in last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals by an average margin of more than 25 points.

"We understood that we played this team four times this year and we won three of them,” Johnson said. “We're a confident group. I think the last six games of the season people kind of looked down on us because we lost all six. But now we have a plan. It's coming to fruition and we just have to go out and play together."

A key part of the formula for success when Atlanta has defeated Orlando this year has been on the defensive end of the floor. In the three regular season wins over the Magic the Hawks suffocated Stan Van Gundy’s team, holding them to 41.6%, 35.2% and 37.8% shooting from the floor. Also in those victories, the Hawks held an overall +15 rebounding advantage in the three games, being out rebounded only once.

The pick here, however, is for Orlando to bounce back at home in what’s close to a must-win situation, and end the team’s four game losing streak to the Hawks. The followingFoxSheets trends favor this pick.

Play On - Home teams (ORLANDO) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. (51-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. (39-14 since 1996.) (73.6%, +23.6 units. Rating = 2*)

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics trying to go up 2-0 on Knicks


NEW YORK KNICKS

at BOSTON CELTICS



Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -6.5 Total: 193

The defending Eastern Conference Champions showed they still have some magic left in them as they rallied from down 12 points at the half to defeat the Knicks 87-85 in Game One of their Eastern Conference First Round series. New York blew a golden chance to take the upper hand in the series on Sunday, and still hope to go to Madison Square Garden on Friday tied at one game apiece.

The Knicks have to be asking themselves what exactly do they have to do to beat the Celtics. For the third time this season, the Knicks led Boston by double-digits in the second half, only to lose the game in the final minutes. After missing most of the first quarter with foul trouble, Carmelo Anthony scored 12 points in the second quarter, but just like his first game against Boston as a Knick on March 21, Anthony went silent in the second half. Anthony is just 1-16 for a total of eight points in his two career games as a Knick against Boston in the second half. The Knicks will need Anthony even more on Tuesday, as Chauncey Billups will most likely not play after sustaining a knee injury late in Game One. Amar’e Stoudemire came to play in Game One, scoring 28 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. He needs to pick up some of the slack that the Knicks will miss without Billups.

Despite winning Game One, the Celtics realize they need to play a lot better if they want to advance further in the postseason. Paul Pierce finished with 18 points on just 6-16 shooting with four turnovers, while Kevin Garnett made just 5-14 shots, scoring 15 points. With Shaquille O’Neal out for Game Two, Boston hopes to get a similar performance from Jermaine O’Neal who was outstanding in Game One. O’Neal scored 12 points on 6-6 shooting, and grabbed three key offensive rebounds.

The Celtics have won 10 straight games (including postseason) against the Knicks at home. Despite the Knicks playing so well in Game One, I think that was their best chance to win a game this series. Boston is just too experienced and deep, and they don’t panic when they get down early. While the Celtics have excelled late in games, the Knicks seem to always find a way to lose. Tony Douglas played well in Billups absence when he missed a few games after first coming to NY, but Billups absence, plus the fact that Boston now having survived their scare looks like they are ready to take over the series and send a message to the Knicks for Game Two. I’m taking Boston giving the points.

FoxSheets says:

Play Against - Underdogs (NEW YORK) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games. (53-22 over the last 5 seasons, 70.7%, +28.8 units. Rating = 3*)

[StarDust Bum]

Mavs look to go up 2-0 on Blazers


PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

at DALLAS MAVERICKS


Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -4, Total: 182.5

The Mavs showed uncharacteristic toughness in surviving Game 1 against Portland. They’ll be in for a similar challenge Tuesday night.

Among the teams that earned home court advantage in Round 1 of the NBA playoffs, Dallas relies on the jump shot more than any of them. That didn’t burn them Saturday night. Despite hitting just 36.2% of their two-pointers, they hit 10 of their 19 threes and made 25 free throws in 29 trips to the line. They were whistled for just 16 fouls on the night, as Portland attempted just 13 free throws. While the Mavs don’t typically get that sort of free throw discrepancy, they often defend without fouling. What might have been due more to luck was Portland’s 2-for-16 shooting from three.

Jason Kidd shot out of his mind, hitting 9 of 14 from the field and 6 of 10 from three, canceling out Dirk Nowitzki’s tough night shooting (7-for-20 from the field, but 13-for-13 from the line). Kidd shot 36.1% from the field and 34.0% from three during the regular season. And still, Dallas trailed with four minutes to go on Saturday.

On Portland’s side, LaMarcus Aldridge again owned Tyson Chandler. Aldridge scored 27 on 12 of 20 shooting. Aldridge is now averaging 27.6 PPG on 53.2% shooting from the field in five games against Dallas this season.

I can’t see Dallas—specifically Kidd—shooting as well again, nor do I think Portland will shoot as poorly from three. We’re unlikely to see that kind of free throw discrepancy either. Coming into this year’s postseason, the Mavs had dropped at least one home game in six of their past seven playoff series. There’s a great chance that Tuesday night makes if seven of eight. My pick is Portland. The FoxSheets offer up the fact that the Blazers are 37-28 (57%) against the spread versus the Mavericks since 1996.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday Playoff Tips

April 18, 2011


The first round of the playoffs continues Tuesday night with a trio of games as two of the home teams look to go up 2-0. The Hawks pulled off the lone upset on Saturday night as Atlanta tries to steal Game 2 over a stunned Orlando squad. We'll start in Boston as the Knicks will be down their veteran point guard while attempting to split the series at a game apiece.

Knicks at Celtics - 7:05 PM EST

Boston stole the series opener, 87-85, thanks to Ray Allen's go-ahead three-pointer in the final seconds. The Celtics failed to cover as six-point favorites, but the defending Eastern Conference champions picked up their fifth win in five tries against the Knicks this season. The trade for Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups from Denver was supposed to put the Knicks over the top, but Anthony converted just one of 11 shots from the floor in the second half, while Billups left the game in the final minute with a strained left knee.

Billups is listed as 'doubtful' for Tuesday's Game 2, which likely opens the door for Toney Douglas to start at point guard for the Knicks. New York has fared well as a road underdog since the blockbuster trade with Denver at the All-Star break by compiling a 7-2 ATS mark following the cover in Game 1. When Billups was out with a quad injury in early March, the Knicks managed a 2-1 ATS mark when getting points on the road, including outright wins at Atlanta and Memphis.

The Knicks blew a 12-point halftime lead in the series opener, but the second half comeback was keyed by Allen and Jermaine O'Neal, who combined to shoot 15 for 21 from the field. Amare Stoudemire paced the Knicks with 28 points and 11 rebounds, but Anthony and Billups tallied just 25 points between them, while going 8 for 29 from the floor. The Knicks almost pulled out the victory despite shooting 42% from the field, as New York got outrebounded, 44-34.

Over the last 21 games, the Celtics have cashed the 'under' 16 times, including Sunday's Game 1 of 197. Adjustments have been made as Tuesday's total is down to 193, as the Knicks are riding a nice 5-1 'under' streak the last six games. Since getting tripped up by the Clippers in early March, the Celtics are 6-3 ATS the previous nine contests at TD Garden.

The Celtics are listed as seven-point favorites, while the total is set at 193, as the game will be televised nationally on TNT.

Hawks at Magic - 7:35 PM EST

Orlando was delivered a huge blow in the series opener as the Magic's offense disappeared past Dwight Howard in a 103-93 setback. Howard put up a playoff career-high 46 points, but Atlanta used balanced scoring by shooting 51% from the floor to beat the Magic for the fourth straight time. What's even more impressive is Atlanta snapping a six-game skid entering the playoffs, as it's tough to know which Hawks' team you'll see on a nightly basis.

The Hawks did also exorcise last season's playoff demons against the Magic when Orlando pulled off a four-game sweep in the second round with four blowouts of Atlanta. The Magic held the Hawks to under 100 points in all four games of that series, as Atlanta rebounded with five-players putting up double-figures in Saturday's series opener. The 'over' of 180 ½ was never in doubt, the first time the 'under' hasn't cashed between these two teams in seven meetings.

Orlando went on a nice ATS run down the stretch with four consecutive covers to close out the regular season, but the Magic are just 5-16 ATS the last 21 games. To make matters worse, Stan Van Gundy's club is 1-8 ATS the previous nine opportunities when laying points at home. The Magic have had problems all season scoring against the Magic by getting held to 93 points or less in all five matchups.

After being listed as 8 ½-point favorites in Game 1, the oddsmakers aren't ready to change things as the Magic are laying the same amount of points in Game 2. The total is set at 183 ½ at most outfits, while the game can be seen on NBA TV.

Blazers at Mavericks - 9:30 PM EST

Dallas was the lone favorite to cover on Saturday night with an 89-81 triumph as five-point 'chalk.' The Mavs won despite shooting 41% from the floor, but Dirk Nowitzki scored a game-high 28 points and Jason Kidd chipped in 24 points to give Dallas its third series opening win in four tries. Meanwhile, the Blazers hit just two of 16 shots from three-point range and needed to rely on Dallas native LaMarcus Aldridge for 27 points, but that wasn't enough for Portland.

The home team improved to 5-0 in this season's series, while the Blazers were limited to less than 100 points in all three losses at American Airlines Center. Portland has won two of its last nine games away from the Rose Garden, including five losses to playoff teams (including the Game 1 defeat at Dallas). Granted, the Blazers picked up a victory at San Antonio on March 28, but the Spurs played without Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili as Portland pulled out an eight-point win.

Since losing four straight games, the Mavs have won five consecutive contests, including four in a row at home. Dallas is helping out backers with a 9-3 ATS mark the previous 12 games as a favorite, while putting together a 5-2 ATS ledger the last seven games as home 'chalk.' Portland owns plenty of players that can score, but the Blazers are 6-2 to the 'under' the last eight games, while getting held to less than 100 points in five of the previous six contests.

The Mavericks are listed as 3 ½-point favorites in Game 2, while the total is set at 183. The game will be televised nationally on TNT, as Portland tries to get back on track and looks to advance to the second round for the first time since 2000.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - First Round

April 19, 2011

First Round Results

Favorites are 7-3 straight up
Underdogs are 8-2 against the spread
The 'total' stands at 5-5
Home teams are 7-3 straight up



Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr. 16
Indiana Chicago (-12.5) 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Philadelphia Miami (-10.5) 97-89 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Atlanta (+9) Orlando 103-93 UNDERDOG OVER 181
Portland Dallas (-5) 89-81 FAVORITE UNDER 186

Sunday, Apr. 17
Memphis (+6.5) San Antonio 101-98 UNDERDOG OVER 195.5
New Orleans (+11) L.A. Lakers 109-100 UNDERDOG OVER 184.5
New York Boston (-6) 87-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 197.5
Denver Oklahoma City (-6) 107-103 UNDERDOG OVER 206

Monday, Apr. 18
Philadelphia Miami (-9) 94-73 FAVORITE UNDER 190
Indiana Chicago (-11) 96-90 UNDERDOG UNDER 192

Tuesday, Apr. 19
New York Boston
Atlanta Orlando
Portland Dallas

Wednesday, Apr. 20
Denver Oklahoma City
Memphis San Antonio
New Orleans L.A. Lakers

Thursday, Apr. 21
Chicago Indiana
Miami Philadelphia
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 22
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Saturday, Apr. 23
Chicago Indiana
Dallas Portland
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Sunday, Apr. 24
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Monday, Apr. 25
San Antonio Memphis
Portland Dallas
Oklahoma City Denver

Tuesday, Apr. 26
Indiana Chicago
New York Boston
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, Apr. 27
Philadelphia Miami
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City

Thursday, Apr. 28
Chicago Indiana
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 29
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Saturday, Apr. 30
Indiana Chicago
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers
Portland Dallas

Sunday, May 1
Philadelphia Miami
New York Boston
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, April 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New York - 7:00 PM ET Boston -6.5 500
Boston - Over 193 500

Atlanta - 7:30 PM ET Atlanta +9.5 500
Orlando - Over 183.5 500

Portland - 9:30 PM ET Dallas -3.5 500
Dallas - Under 183 500

[StarDust Bum]

Memphis Grizzlies, Spurs resume NBA betting series

Last Sunday was filled with carnage for high seeds in NBA playoff betting action. Since the field was expanded to 16 teams, never before had the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the same conference lost a Game 1 on the same day.

However, now the Los Angeles Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs can say that they share that dubious distinction.

The Spurs are back in action in a Game 2 that almost feels like a do or die against the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Tip time from the AT&T Center in San Antonio is slated for 5:30 p.m. (PT), and the duel can be viewed live on NBA TV.

We've ripped Shane Battier before for how he didn't really do much in the way of helping out the Grizz after they traded for him right at this year's deadline. We're not bashing him or the team any longer.

Battier knocked down the go-ahead three-pointer with less than a minute to play in Game 1 to absolutely shock the faithful in San Antonio.

Of course, the argument could be made that a trade deadline deal that never happened – OJ Mayo to the Indiana Pacers – might have saved Memphis' season as well. Mayo and Battier combined to hit five of the team's six three-point baskets on the day, and they combined for 23 of the bench's 28 points.

The big days belonged to Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Conley had a double-double with 15 points and 10 assists, but the heroes for the day were the big men in the middle. Randolph and Gasol combined for 49 points and 23 rebounds, a tremendous effort in Game 1, especially against a gritty San Antonio side with a ton of great bigs.

The Spurs really need to tighten up their interior defense which allowed a whopping 40 points in the paint against Memphis on Sunday afternoon. There are other issues as well.

San Antonio needs to shoot better than 40.0 percent from the floor, and it probably needs more than 13 assists on 28 baskets. Committing fewer than 27 personal fouls would probably help, though Memphis committed 33 fouls and sent San Antonio to the charity stripe 47 times in the game.

However, the biggest problem that head coach Gregg Popovich has is getting Manu Ginobili back into the lineup after missing the series opener with an elbow injury. Ginobili averaged 17.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 4.9 APG this year, and he's officially listed as probable for Wednesday's second game.

Believe it or not, the Grizzlies have dominated this series of late, so the Game 1 upset should really come as no surprise. Last April, Memphis shocked San Antonio as 10 ½-point underdogs here at the AT&T Center. Since then, the Grizzlies have won four of six meetings straight up and covered the spread in all six games.

In Game 2, the Spurs are 8 ½-point favorites on the NBA odds at 5Dimes, while the only 'total' that is posted as of Tuesday morning is at the Las Vegas Hilton, a number set at 197.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Los Angeles Lakers host Hornets

The New Orleans Hornets look to build on their shocking Game 1 win at the Los Angeles Lakers when they meet Wednesday night at Staples Center.

Oddsmakers have New Orleans as big 11 ½-point road ‘dogs with a total of 188 points. TNT will have the tip-off at 7:30 p.m. (PT).

The Hornets (47-36 straight-up, 40-41-2 against the spread) were double-digit underdogs for Game 1 on Sunday, but won 109-100 in a result that even coach Monty Williams couldn’t have imagined.

The 209 combined points scored went way ‘over’ the 182 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the meetings between the teams this year, but this is the first where more than 198 points were scored.

Point guard Chris Paul had 33 points on 11-of-18 shooting. He also got to the line 12 times and had 14 assists, continually breaking down the Lakers defense. Los Angeles tried to do switches with its big men as 36-year-old Derek Fisher has no shot of guarding Paul, but that didn’t work either.

Backup guard Jarrett Jack (15 points, five assists) also had success against the Lakers defense, playing alongside Paul at some points.

The Hornets shot much better than L.A. (51.9-45.9 percent) and only committed only three turnovers. That made up for the deficiency on the boards (41-33).

New Orleans was one of the lowest scoring teams in the regular season (94.9 PPG, ranked 27th). That was even with leading scorer David West (18.9 PPG), who was lost for the year in late March (torn ACL).

Coach Williams knows his guys are out-gunned offensively, so he used a different strategy on Sunday. The Hornets pushed the ball whenever they could, trying to beat the Lakers’ big men down the court. That worked well with Carl Landry (17 points) and Aaron Gray (12 points) both contributing big.

Landry was a huge pickup at the trade deadline from Sacramento. He’s now the starting power forward with West out and he’s a proven playoff performer. Gray sprained his ankle last game and is listed as doubtful for Wednesday. That would weaken an already mediocre bench.

The Lakers (57-26 SU, 39-43-1 ATS) are trying not to push the panic button after just one outing. After all, they’re likely to get a lot more production from Pau Gasol than last game (2-of-9, eight points). He was called out by Kobe Bryant and usually responds to such motivation.

Help is also on the way with reserve point guard Steve Blake. He missed Game 1 with chicken pox, but was back at practice on Monday and listed as probable. Blake’s defense is needed against Paul, although it’s still going to take a team effort to contain him.

Blake also needs to infuse a bench that was outscored 39-21. Lamar Odom had just 10 points and Matt Barnes was shutout in eight minutes while battling a sore knee.

Bryant had 34 points, but it took him 26 field goal attempts (making 13). He’s usually the one pulling out close games in the fourth quarter, but Paul outscored him 17-7 as the Hornets beat the Lakers by eight (36-28).

Los Angeles won the four regular season meetings with New Orleans, going 3-1 ATS. Paul averaged just 15.8 PPG in the four games. That was very close to his season average (15.9 PPG), which was a career low.

Paul can’t be counted on for another monster game, which means starter Trevor Ariza (2-of-13, six points) must play a lot better against his former team.

The series shifts back to New Orleans for Game 3 on Friday. The Hornets hope they’re still shocking the world with a 2-0 lead.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - First Round

April 20, 2011

First Round Results

Favorites are 10-3 straight up
Underdogs are 10-2 against the spread
The 'under' stands at 7-6
Home teams are 10-3 straight up



Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr. 16
Indiana Chicago (-12.5) 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Philadelphia Miami (-10.5) 97-89 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Atlanta (+9) Orlando 103-93 UNDERDOG OVER 181
Portland Dallas (-5) 89-81 FAVORITE UNDER 186

Sunday, Apr. 17
Memphis (+6.5) San Antonio 101-98 UNDERDOG OVER 195.5
New Orleans (+11) L.A. Lakers 109-100 UNDERDOG OVER 184.5
New York Boston (-6) 87-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 197.5
Denver Oklahoma City (-6) 107-103 UNDERDOG OVER 206

Monday, Apr. 18
Philadelphia Miami (-9) 94-73 FAVORITE UNDER 190
Indiana Chicago (-11) 96-90 UNDERDOG UNDER 192

Tuesday, Apr. 19
New York Boston (-6.5) 96-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 192.5
Atlanta Orlando (-9.5) 88-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 182.5
Portland Dallas (-4) 101-89 FAVORITE OVER 184.5

Wednesday, Apr. 20
Denver Oklahoma City
Memphis San Antonio
New Orleans L.A. Lakers

Thursday, Apr. 21
Chicago Indiana
Miami Philadelphia
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 22
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Saturday, Apr. 23
Chicago Indiana
Dallas Portland
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Sunday, Apr. 24
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Monday, Apr. 25
San Antonio Memphis
Portland Dallas
Oklahoma City Denver

Tuesday, Apr. 26
Indiana Chicago
New York Boston
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, Apr. 27
Philadelphia Miami
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City

Thursday, Apr. 28
Chicago Indiana
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 29
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Saturday, Apr. 30
Indiana Chicago
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers
Portland Dallas

Sunday, May 1
Philadelphia Miami
New York Boston
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, April 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Denver - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -4.5 500
Oklahoma City - Over 206 500

Memphis - 8:30 PM ET Memphis +8 500
San Antonio - Over 194.5 500

New Orleans - 10:30 PM ET New Orleans +12 500
L.A. Lakers - Under 187.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder aim for 2-0 series lead over Denver


DENVER NUGGETS

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 2 – Oklahoma City leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -4.5, Total: 206.5

George Karl and his Denver Nuggets know that the job of tying up their playoff series against the Oklahoma City Thunder comes down to stopping Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Just because they are coming off a victory in which the duo combined for 72 points, and just because they are the second-highest scoring tandem in the league behind Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, does not mean they’re not human. Sunday night, they were super human. "We did some things that we really wanted to do against them," Karl said. "So, do you want to change up to maybe take more concern about Westbrook and Durant scoring big numbers, or do you want to make sure you keep your foundation of what you definitely want to do against them? I personally think it's a game of little adjustments more than big adjustments."

With five players in double figures in Game 1, and shooting 50% from the floor, the offensive adjustments Karl makes will likely be minimal. Denver got a strong 22-point, eight-rebound effort from Nene, and Danilo Gallinari chipped in with 18. Still, the matchup problems created by Durant and Westbrook were numerous, as the 6-foot-9 Durant shot over and drove past every defender the Nuggets ran at him. Meanwhile the 6-foot-3 Westbrook was too much for Denver’s smallish guards Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton. The 72 points combined for Durant and Westbrook were the most they totaled this season in a regulation game. They shot 25-for-45 from the field as a tandem, scoring all but 13 of the Thunder’s field goals on the night. “We have to limit one of them,” Kenyon Martin (10 points, seven rebounds) said. "They can't go for 30 or 40. I think our concepts of paying attention to everyone else was great. Everything we needed to do, we did -- except for limit Durant and Westbrook."

In defeating Denver three out of four times in the regular season, the Thunder never shot lower than 44.3% from the floor, and were as high as 49.2%. They also held an overall rebounding advantage of +13. With the trade deadline addition of Kendrick Perkins’ toughness and attitude, expect Oklahoma City to continue to hold an advantage in the paint. It was Perkins’ offensive rebound and put back Sunday that put the Thunder up for good with 1:02 remaining in the 4th quarter. It was a controversial tip in, as Karl and the Nuggets players were convinced that Perkins touched the ball while it was in the cylinder. The next day the NBA issued an apology, saying that the referees missed the call and should have disallowed the basket. Officiating aside, Denver cannot deny that it scored just two points in the final 3:05 of the game. If they cannot execute better down the stretch on the road, particularly in a tight game, the Nuggets will return to their Mile High home with a mile deep 0-2 hole to overcome.

Oklahoma City is the pick here to take the 2-0 series lead and cover the spread. The following two FoxSheets trends support this pick.

Play Against - Underdogs (DENVER) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (47-14 since 1996.) (77%, +31.6 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - Home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - when leading in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (49-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71%, +27 units. Rating = 2*).