The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

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Spurs try to even series with Grizzlies


MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 2 – Memphis leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -8.5, Total: 196

Finishing with the best record in the Western Conference this season didn’t help the Spurs on Saturday as they gave up their home-court advantage by losing Game One of their First Round series against Memphis. With Manu Ginobili being a game-time decision, the Spurs will need to be at their best to avoid heading to Memphis down two games in the series. The Grizzlies’ win in Game One marked their first-ever playoff win in 13 tries.

After defeating the Spurs for the third time in five games this season, Memphis is confident they can do what only one other team has done since the NBA went to a best-of-seven format in the first round, and that’s defeat a No. 1 seed in the first round. Zach Randolph continued his domination of the Spurs on Saturday. After averaging 23.0 PPG and 14.8 RPG against the Spurs during the regular season, Randolph scored 25 and grabbed 14 rebounds in Game One. Teammate Marc Gasol also was superb in Game One, scoring 24 points and grabbing nine boards.

San Antonio held opponents to a FG percentage of 45.6 percent, but allowed the Grizzlies to shoot over 55 percent from the field on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Spurs only shot 40 percent from the field. San Antonio is hoping Manu Ginobili can return after missing Game One with a sprained right elbow. Tim Duncan (16 pts, 13 boards Saturday) needs to do a better job defensively against the Grizzlies frontcourt, as Randolph and Gasol made 19-of-25 shots.

Losing the opener of a playoff series is nothing new for San Antonio, who has now lost six straight Game One’s. In each of their last three championship runs (2007, 2005, 2003) the Spurs lost Game One at home in the first round and still won the series, so San Antonio is not panicking. However, if it falls behind 2-0, I’m not sure even a team with as many veterans and proven winners as the Spurs can rebound from that. Ginobili is a very big key for the Spurs who have outscored the Grizzlies by 26 points this season with him on the floor. Without him on the floor, Memphis has outscored the Spurs by 39. Saying that, I expect Ginobili to play and lead the Spurs to a victory. However, eight points is a lot to give, so while I am picking the Spurs to win, I don’t think they will cover. I’m taking Memphis to lose the game, but by less than eight points. These three highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with the Grizzlies.

MEMPHIS is 27-10 ATS (73.0%, +16.0 Units) versus good 3-point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 102.0, OPPONENT 100.9 - (Rating = 3*).

MEMPHIS is 35-15 ATS (70.0%, +18.5 Units) vs. good free-throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 100.6, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 3*).

MEMPHIS is 32-14 ATS (69.6%, +16.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 103.0, OPPONENT 101.9 - (Rating = 3*).

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Hornets look to take 2-0 series lead over Lakers


NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 2 – New Orleans leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -11.5, Total: 188

After losing all four of their regular-season games against the Lakers this season, the Hornets shocked the NBA world by going into the Staples Center Sunday and winning Game One. Wednesday night the Hornets will try to head to New Orleans up 2-0 against the two-time defending champions.

Chris Paul elevated himself to the NBA elite with his 33-point, 14-assist performance in Game One. Paul scored or assisted on 25 of the Hornets 34 baskets when he was on the court. The Hornets bench also was magnificent, outscoring the Lakers bench 39-21. Jarrett Jack and Aaron Gray led the charge off the bench, combining for 27 points and making 10-of-11 FG attempts. The Hornets also protected the ball very well, committing only three turnovers, which tied for the fewest in an NBA playoff game over the last 20 seasons.

Kobe Bryant recorded his 79th career 30-point playoff game, scoring 34 points, but it was not enough, as his supporting cast did not perform well. Pau Gasol scored a career-low eight points on 2-of-9 shooting, while his team allowed the Hornets to shoot 51.9 percent from the field. This was the ninth time the Lakers have lost Game One of a playoff series with Phil Jackson as their head coach and they have lost five of those previous eight series.

Preparing for Game Two, Kobe Bryant and his teammates are aware just how devastating a loss would be. The Lakers have overcome a bunch of obstacles during Kobe’s career, and I like them to recover here as well and eventually win the series. Keep in mind, Los Angeles did win all four regular-season games against the Hornets. Look for the Lakers to come out and execute defensively much better than they did in Game One, pressuring the Hornets and forcing them into more turnovers. While I like L.A. to win, the Lakers have been one of the worst teams in the NBA at covering the spread at home all season at 15-27 ATS (36%). I’m taking New Orleans to lose, but cover by keeping the score within single digits. The FoxSheets provide another trend showing L.A.’s futility in covering monster spreads like this one:

L.A. LAKERS are 13-26 ATS (33.3%, -15.6 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 104.8, OPPONENT 93.8 - (Rating = 1*).

And despite the Hornets playing 50 games Under the total this year, this highly-rated FoxSheets trend sides with the Over for Wednesday’s game.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. (63-28 since 1996.) (69.2%, +32.2 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Bulls go for 3-0 series lead Thursday at Indiana


CHICAGO BULLS

at INDIANA PACERS


Eastern Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 3 – Chicago leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -4.5, Total: 189

Having survived a scare in both of the first two games against the Pacers, the Bulls head into Indiana for Game 3 of the first-round series up two games to none. These teams split two games during the regular season at Conseco Fieldhouse.

Derek Rose has dominated the first two games of this series averaging 37.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 6.0 APG. Rose became the first Bulls player to record consecutive 35-point playoff games since Michael Jordan. Chicago has now won 11 straight games overall going back to the regular season. A big reason why the Bulls are up 2-0 outside of Rose’s spectacular play is their rebounding edge. They have outrebounded the Pacers by 39 in the first two games, including 41-22 on offensive rebounds, which has helped them overcome their 41.2 percent shooting from the field.

Indiana feels the frustration of playing very well in the first two games yet having nothing to show for it, but their home crowd will be behind them for Game 3. After scoring 17 points in Game 1, Darren Collison, sprained his ankle and only played 15 minutes in Game 2. He will be a game-time decision for Thursday’s contest. The Pacers need to stay hot from three-point range if they want to get back in this series. They have made 45.7 percent of their shots from behind the arc through the first two games. Danny Granger has been terrific in the first two games, averaging 21.5 PPG.

If Indiana can repeat its defensive performance of the first two games they have an excellent chance at winning on Thursday. However, the Pacers must cut down on the amount of offensive rebounds they have allowed, especially Joakim Noah who has 14. This has counteracted much of the success they have had in shutting down the Bulls offense. Although I think Chicago will win this series, the Pacers will take one game at home. I’m taking Indiana plus the 4.5 points. The FoxSheets says:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. (35-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +19.6 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Portland returns home down 2-0 to Dallas


DALLAS MAVERICKS

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 3 – Dallas leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Portland -5.5, Total: 186

After dealing with the frustration of past playoff failures, the Mavericks have answered their doubters so far by winning the first two games of their First Round series with Portland. This is the first time since the 2006 NBA Finals that Dallas has led a series two games to none. Keep in mind however, that Dallas eventually lost that series in six games, and has won only 1-of-5 playoff series since then.

Jason Kidd has found the fountain of youth through the first two games of this series. Kidd is averaging 21.0 PPG (averaged a career-low 7.9 PPG during regular season), while connecting on 64 percent of his shots from the field (shot 36.1 percent during regular season) and an amazing 56.3 percent from behind the arc. As a team, Dallas has made 47.4 percent of its three-point attempts in this series, after shooting just 36.5 percent for the regular season. Dirk Nowitzki has really taken over in the fourth quarter, averaging 16.0 PPG in the final quarter while getting to the foul line 21 total times (making 19).

The Blazers are glad to be home where they have played very well this season, going 30-11, including 10 wins in their past 11 regular-season games. They are 6-1 against the Mavericks at home in their playoff history. LaMarcus Aldridge has come to play for Portland (25.5 PPG in series), as has Andre Miller (18.0 PPG, 7.0 APG in series), but overall the Blazers have not shot well from behind the arc, making just 9-of-30 shots. While Marcus Camby has not scored many points (averaging 4.5 PPG), he has rebounded very well, pulling down 13.0 RPG in the first two games.

While many still think Portland has a chance to still win this series, it needs to get much better production out of its bench, which has been outscored 61-32 through the first two games of the series. The Mavericks still have a lot to prove and I like them to come out Thursday and show that their first two games were not flukes. I’m taking underdog Dallas plus the points. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to side with the Mavs:

Play On - Underdogs (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games. (73-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.9%, +36.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Favorites (PORTLAND) - after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games. (85-43 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +37.7 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Miami aims for 3-0 series lead over Philly


MIAMI HEAT

at PHILADELPHIA 76ers


Eastern Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 3 – Miami leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -4.5, Total: 187

So far the first round series between Philadelphia and Miami has looked very much like a No. 2 seed versus a No. 7 seed matchup. The underdog 76ers performed well enough in Game 1 to put a scare into the favored Heat before losing a close contest, and then took a fanny whooping in Game 2. Now in an 0-2 hole against the Heat, the Sixers realistically have one game left to make this a competitive series, or else face the prospect of having its Easter weekend ruined with a series-clinching sweep. Doug Collins’ team hopes to avoid that outcome by defending its home court, beginning with a victory Thursday night in Game 3 at the Wells Fargo Center.

The best thing that Philly can say about the 94-73 Game 2 defeat is, well, at least it played well in Game 1. Monday’s loss was a forgettable effort for a team that entered the contest wondering if the Heat would have Dwyane Wade available and healthy. Wade was healthy, though still slightly fatigued after battling migraines the day before, and much healthier than the Sixers offense, which only generated 31 points in the first half. The Heat didn’t need Wade at an MVP level, LeBron James and Chris Bosh took care of that. James totaled 29 points, seven boards and six assists, while Bosh added 21 points and 11 rebounds. Simply put, the 76ers failed to show up, and it started (and ended) with the starting five. The Heat starters outscored Philly’s starters 76-29 for the game, as the Sixers shot a paltry 34% from the floor. It was the second-worst playoff shooting performance for the team in 20 years. "If they're playing great, they're a better team," 76ers coach Doug Collins said after Monday’s defeat. "OK? If they're playing on top of their game, they're a better team. I mean, they won 58, we won 41. That doesn't mean that we aren't going to play and compete and fight. But when they come out tonight and defend the way they did ... it's going to be very difficult for us to beat them."

There are many numbers that do not favor the uphill climb that faces the Sixers. Philly is winless against Miami in five tries this season (regular season and playoffs). A team with LeBron James on it (Miami or Cleveland) has not lost to Philadelphia since December of 2007, a streak of 13 straight wins for James. In the five losses this season, Miami has out-shot Philadelphia in all but one game, and from a rebounding standpoint, the Heat have outrebounded Philly by an overall margin of +46.

The Sixers have been defined by their balance all year (six players average double-figure scoring), but Monday night four of the five starters never made it out of single digits as Jrue Holiday led the starters with 12 points. After two playoff games reserve forward Thaddeus Young (19.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) leads the squad in scoring and rebounding. Meanwhile Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala, who averaged 15.0 PPG and 14.1 PPG respectively in the regular season, are scoring just 10.0 PPG and 4.5 PPG so far this postseason. If the 76ers can’t get Brand and Iguodala to the top of the stat sheet in Game 3, they could be looking at the bottom of an 0-3 series hole, and the high probability of a series sweep.

Miami has never lost a series after winning the first two games (6-0). Meanwhile the Philadelphia franchise is winless in 16 series after falling into an 0-2 postseason hole. The 76ers cannot play much worse than they did in Game 2. Unfortunately for them, the Heat, with a healthier Dwyane Wade in tow, can definitely play better. I expect Miami to continue its mastery over the Sixers by taking Game 3 and covering the spread. The following three FoxSheets stats also favor the Heat pick.

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game. (42-17 since 1996.) (71.2%, +23.3 units. Rating = 2*).

MIAMI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after allowing 85 points or less this season. The average score was MIAMI 103.3, OPPONENT 87.5 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 75 points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (93-52 since 1996.) (64.1%, +35.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The Heat have played five straight games Under the total and Philly has logged eight straight contests finishing Under. This highly-rated FoxSheets coaching trend also expects the Under streaks to continue on Thursday night.

Erik Spoelstra is 25-7 UNDER (78.1%, +17.3 Units) after a blowout win by 20 points or more as the coach of MIAMI. The average score was MIAMI 95.2, OPPONENT 90.2 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Indiana Pacers host Chicago Bulls in Game 3

The Chicago Bulls may be up 2-0 against the Indiana Pacers, but it’s been a lot harder than anyone expected. The teams move the series to Conseco Fieldhouse for Game 3 on Thursday night with Indiana facing a big injury to point guard Darren Collison.

The Don Best odds screen has Chicago as 4 ½-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 189 points. NBA-TV will broadcast the opening jump at 4 p.m. (PT).

The Bulls (64-20 straight-up, 49-33-2 against the spread) looked shaky in Game 1, trailing 98-88 with under four minutes left in the fourth quarter before ending on a 16-1 spurt (104-99 win). Point guard Derrick Rose had seven points in that final run and 39 for the game, showing why he’ll likely be named league MVP.

Game 2 last Monday was another nail biter. Indiana led 78-76 with just over five minutes left, but Rose scored 11 of his 36 points from there in the 96-90 victory. Power forward Carlos Boozer was the other big gun with 17 points and 16 rebounds after getting into foul trouble in the opener.

The Bulls didn’t come close to ‘covering’ the spread as 11 ½-point favorites each time. They were an impressive 24-15-2 ATS at home during the regular season and 25-16 ATS on the road (9-3 ATS in the last 12 away).

Game 1 went ‘over’ the 188-point total, while Game 2 went ‘under’ the 193-points. Chicago was the second-stringiest team on defense during the regular season (91.3 PPG).

Chicago’s critics point out its never won a playoff series with Rose and the Bulls also have a rookie head coach in Tom Thibodeau. It was great earning home court advantage throughout the NBA Finals, but the playoffs are an entirely different animal.

The Pacers (37-47 SU, 40-42-2 ATS) are playing a lot better than their record indicates. Their improvement began in late January when assistant Frank Vogel took over for Jim O’Brien, amassing a 20-18 SU (18-20 ATS) record heading into the postseason.

Vogel has shown confidence in his young players and it’s paid off. Tyler Hansbrough has blossomed since he took over and had 22 points in Game 1. He did struggle last game (2-of-12, six points), but he’s turning into a good second scorer behind Danny Granger (20.5 PPG).

Vogel’s coaching skills will be tested if Collison (listed as questionable) misses Thursday. He sprained his ankle in the second quarter last game after stepping on a cameraman. Second-year guard A.J. Price will start if he can’t go, with veteran T.J. Ford also getting minutes.

Price scored 13 points last game and some feel his drop-off is not that great from Collison, but it’s never good to lose a starting point guard mid-series. Price starting would also hurt bench scoring, a 43-22 Pacers advantage last game.

Indiana has to do something about the rebounding differential. It was 49-34 in the opener and 57-33 last game, with the offensive glass a big factor each time. Center Roy Hibbert needs to get his 7-foot-2, 280 pound frame in better position.

Indiana is 24-17 SU and 21-19-1 ATS at home this year. Chicago won the first meeting in mid-January in Indiana (99-86) and the Pacers took the second (115-108 OT) in March with Vogel at the helm.

Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. The ‘over’ is 6-0 in its last six games as a home ‘dog.

The series will continue Saturday afternoon in Hoosier country. It will either be a tight 2-1 margin or the Pacers trying to avoid a sweep.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Playoff Odds: Dallas Mavericks at Portland

Dirk Nowitzki may have led Dallas in scoring each of the first two games in their playoff series with Portland, but it's a sudden burst by Jason Kidd on the offensive end of the court that has keyed the Mavericks' 2-0 lead.

The Trail Blazers will try and regroup in Game 3 as the series moves northwest to Portland's Rose Garden. TNT has Thursday's broadcast starting at 7:30 p.m. (PT).

The Las Vegas Hilton opened Portland as a six-point favorite with 186 for the total.

Dallas was laying five points in Game 1, an 89-81 Mavs victory that never got close to the 186½-point total. Nowitzki's 28 points included a perfect 13-for-13 from the foul line where Dallas held a huge 25-9 scoring advantage.

Kidd scored a season-high 24 points in the contest, only the third time in 91 games dating back to the end of the 2009-10 regular season that he reached the 20-point plateau. The bulk of his scoring came from long range with the veteran of 17 seasons making good on six of his 10 three-point attempts.

The former All-American from Cal averaged less than eight points per game during the regular season when he rarely attempted more than five shots behind the arc.

Oddsmakers cut both the spread and total for Tuesday's second game, making the Mavs 3½-point chalk and setting the total at 183½. Kidd responded with 18 points this time with Nowitzki pouring in 33 to lead Dallas to the 101-89 triumph. Nowitzki again had a big fourth quarter when the Mavericks broke open a one-point game by outscoring the Blazers 28-17.

Dallas' final 11 points came on three Nowitzki field goals and five free throws where he was 15-of-17 for the game.

Both playoff battles have followed script from the four regular season meetings. The home team, which has been favored in all six matchups, is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread. The lone ATS exception came the first time the Mavs and Blazers met this season, a 103-98 Dallas win in December as seven-point chalk.

Portland has dominated scoring in the paint, topping Dallas all six contests. The Trail Blazers have averaged nearly 46 points per game inside on the Mavericks, almost half of Portland's scoring. Over 63 percent of Dallas' points in the series have come from outside or from the line.

Keeping the Mavericks and especially Nowitzki off the line in Game 3 is crucial for the Blazers who could get an assist in that area by having home-court advantage. Nowitzki ranked seventh in the NBA during the regular season hitting over 89 percent of his charity tosses, the Dunking Deutschman just outside the top 10 averaging 5.4 PPG via free throws.

Stopping Kidd and playing better perimeter defense will be another factor if Portland is to avoid going down 3-0 in the series. If Kidd does come back down to earth, it will put extra pressure on Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic to step up in his place if Dallas is to win in Portland for the first time in more than two years.

Stojakovic canned 5-of-10 from three-point range in Game 2 on his way to a 21-point evening, only the second time he has eclipsed the 20-point line since joining the Mavs in January.

Portland's Wesley Matthews is probable for Thursday's contest according to the Don Best Sports injury report. The second-year guard scored 13 in Tuesday's loss, playing 36 minutes despite knocking heads pretty hard with Terry in the first quarter.

Friday's off day is followed by Saturday afternoon's fourth game of the series. TNT will have the broadcast starting at 2:00 p.m. (PT).

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Playoff Tips

April 20, 2011


Gamblers have six wagering options Thursday night thanks to a tripleheader in the NBA Playoffs. The action will start at Conseco Fieldhouse, where the Pacers will try to avoid going down 0-3 to top-seeded Chicago.

Next, we’ll go to the City of Brotherly Love, where the 76ers will try to avoid a similar fate against the Heat, who took a 2-0 series advantage in Miami. Finally, Portland will return home to the Rose Garden to take on Dallas, which also owns a 2-0 series lead.

**Bulls at Pacers**

--As of late Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Chicago (64-20 straight up, 49-33-2 against the spread) installed as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 189. Gamblers can take the Pacers to win outright for a plus-170 payout (risk $100 to win $170).

--Chicago had to play from behind for nearly all of Game 1, yet Derrick Rose led a furious late fourth-quarter rally that netted the Bulls a 104-99 win. However, the Pacers comfortably hooked up their backers as 11 ½-point underdogs. Rose scored a game-high 39 points, leading his team on a 16-1 run to close the game. He also had six assists, six rebounds and three blocked shots. Kyle Korver added 13 points off the bench, burying all four of his attempts from 3-point range.

--Tyler Hansbrough scored seven straight points to put the Pacers in front 98-88 with 3:38 left in Game 1. He would finish with 22 points, but it wasn’t enough. Danny Granger had a team-high 24 points in the series’s lid-lifter, while Darren Collison finished with 17 points, nine assists and six rebounds.

--In Game 2, the Bulls closed as 11 ½-point favorites again. And once again, the Pacers took the cash but came up short in their bid for an outright upset. Chicago captured a 96-90 triumph thanks to Rose, who produced 36 points, eight rebounds and six assists. Carlos Boozer added 17 points and 16 boards for the winners. In the losing effort, Indiana didn’t get as much from Hansbrough, who was 2-of-12 from the field and had just six points. Collison was bothered by a sprained ankle sustained late in Game 1, limiting him to just 14 minutes of playing time. Collison’s status for Thursday is ‘questionable.’

--Indiana (37-47 SU, 40-42-2 ATS) had the same regular-season record that Atlanta had when it gave eventual-champion Boston fits in the first round of the 2008 postseason. But unlike the Hawks, the Pacers were extremely competitive in Games 1 and 2. They blew a golden opportunity in Game 1 and certainly had their chances in Game 2 as well. But now Indiana must do what the Hawks did, answer with a pair of home wins to make this a series that’s going to go deep.

--Indiana owns a 6-8 spread record in 14 games as a home underdog, but we should point out that it has won outright in its last three such situations, including a 115-108 win over Chicago on March 18.

--Indiana is 24-17 SU and 21-19-1 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 26-15 SU and 25-16 versus the number on the road.

--The ‘under’ is 46-38 overall for the Pacers, 23-18 in their home games. The ‘under’ is 48-36 overall for Chicago, 22-19 in its road assignments.

--VegasInsider.com’s Chris David likes the Bulls to win outright and isn’t against a money-line wager. David said, “I often hear handicappers say that they don’t like to lay heavy money on a team, but that seems like the best option for Game 3 with Chicago. Most books have the Bulls as -210 favorites (Bet $210 to win $100) on the money-line and while that might be rich for some, it’s the smart play when you look at the Bulls in the second-half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Chicago has gone 26-4 straight up which includes the two victories over the Pacers in this series. Rather than lay the 4 ½ points on the road, or what will probably be higher by tipoff, the money-line wager can also set you up with nice hedge opportunities at halftime if the Bulls jump out early. That’s certainly a big “If” considering Chicago has trailed by three and four points, respectively, in the first two battles.

--Tip-off from Conseco Fieldhouse is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Eastern on NBA-TV.

**Heat at 76ers**

--As of late Wednesday, most books had Miami (60-24 SU, 41-42-1 ATS) listed as a 4 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 187. The 76ers are plus-170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).

--Eric Spoelstra’s squad failed to cover the spread in a 97-89 win as a 10 ½-point home favorite in Saturday’s Game 1. The Heat trailed 31-19 at the end of the first quarter, but it surged back into the lead midway through the second quarter. Chris Bosh finished with 25 points and 12 rebounds, while LeBron James chipped in with 21 points and 14 boards.

--In Game 2, Miami raced out to an early lead and cruised to a 94-73 win as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’ James led the way with 29 points, seven rebounds and six assists, while Bosh produced another double-double with 21 points and 11 boards.

--Philadelphia (41-43 SU, 47-36-1 ATS) has lost seven of its last eight games both SU and ATS dating back to the regular season. Also, the ‘under’ has cashed in eight consecutive outings.

--Doug Collins’ team has thrived as a home underdog, posting a 9-4 spread record with seven outright victories. For the season, the 76ers are 26-15 SU and 23-18 ATS at home.

--Miami has won nine in a row over Philadelphia, including all five meetings this year. Only one of this season’s encounters was played at the Wells Fargo Center. That was way back on Oct. 27 and the Heat cruised to a 97-87 win that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. LeBron and Co. led by 26 at the end of the third quarter of this blowout. Dwyane Wade scored a game-high 30 points.

--Miami has won 28 of its 41 road games, going 24-16-1 ATS.

--The ‘under’ is 44-40 overall for the 76ers, 22-19 in their home outings.

--The ‘under’ is 42-41-1 overall for the Heat, 21-20 in its road assignments.

--David had these thoughts on the Philly-Miami total: “I usually stay away from ‘over/under’ wagers after seeing a line drop based off the outcome of the previous game, which is the case here. Miami and Philadelphia combined for 167 in Game 2, which never threatened the total (190) and now the number came out at 187 for Game 3. Ironically, Game 1 had a total of 190 as well and that game could’ve gone ‘over’ but the Heat didn’t help the cause with a 17-point effort over the last 12 minutes. So is the line adjustment too much or just right? I feel the move is right and it should probably be lower. The 76ers have busted 100 points just once in their last eight games, which has helped the ‘under’ go 8-0. Plus, Miami has slowed it down in the playoffs (72 and 74 shots) so far and we expect more of the same in Game 3.”

--TNT will have the telecast Thursday night at 8:05 p.m. Eastern.

**Mavericks at Trail Blazers**

--Most books are listing Portland (48-36 SU, 43-38-3 ATS) as a 5 1/2-point favorite with a total of 186. Bettors can back the Mavs to win outright for a plus-220 payout (risk $100 to win $220).

--Dallas (59-25 SU, 46-35-2 ATS) won Tuesday’s Game 2 by a 101-89 count as a four-point home favorite. Dirk Nowitzki led the way with a game-high 33 points, but Peja Stojakovic provided the biggest lift with 21 points thanks to five 3-pointers. Jason Kidd another solid game, going for 18 points, eight assists and zero turnovers. LaMarcus Aldridge had 24 points and 10 rebounds in defeat. The Blazers also got 18 points, seven rebounds and six assists from Gerald Wallace.

--Nowitzki and Kidd were the catalysts in Game 1, an 89-81 Mavs’ win as five-point favorites. Nowitzki scored 28 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. Kidd scored 24 points by burying 6-of-10 from 3-point range. He also had five rebounds, four assists and only one turnover. Aldridge’s team-high 27 points kept the Trail Blazers within striking distance for most of the game.

--Portland has covered the number at a 9-2 ATS clip in its last 11 home games. The Blazers won both regular-season meetings against Dallas at the Rose Garden, winning by scores of 104-96 and 104-101.

--Rick Carlisle’s team has been a dynamite road underdog, compiling a 14-6 spread record with 12 outright victories. The Mavs took the cash in each of their first 11 games as underdogs this season, collecting outright wins in 10 of those 11 spots.

--The ‘under’ has gone 44-39-1 overall for Portland, 22-18-1 in its home games.

--The ‘over’ is 47-36-1 overall for Dallas, 24-17 in its road games.

--Tip-off is slated for 10:35 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - First Round

April 21, 2011

First Round Results

Favorites are 13-3 straight up
Underdogs are 12-4 against the spread
The 'under' stands at 10-6
Home teams are 13-3 straight up



Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr. 16
Indiana Chicago (-12.5) 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 189
Philadelphia Miami (-10.5) 97-89 UNDERDOG UNDER 190
Atlanta (+9) Orlando 103-93 UNDERDOG OVER 181
Portland Dallas (-5) 89-81 FAVORITE UNDER 184.5

Sunday, Apr. 17
Memphis (+6.5) San Antonio 101-98 UNDERDOG OVER 195.5
New Orleans (+11) L.A. Lakers 109-100 UNDERDOG OVER 184.5
New York Boston (-6) 87-85 UNDERDOG UNDER 197.5
Denver Oklahoma City (-6) 107-103 UNDERDOG OVER 206

Monday, Apr. 18
Philadelphia Miami (-9) 94-73 FAVORITE UNDER 190
Indiana Chicago (-11) 96-90 UNDERDOG UNDER 192

Tuesday, Apr. 19
New York Boston (-6.5) 96-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 192.5
Atlanta Orlando (-9.5) 88-82 UNDERDOG UNDER 182.5
Portland Dallas (-4) 101-89 FAVORITE OVER 184.5

Wednesday, Apr. 20
Denver Oklahoma City (-4.5) 106-89 FAVORITE UNDER 206.5
Memphis San Antonio (-8) 93-87 UNDERDOG UNDER 193.5
New Orleans L.A. Lakers (-11.5) 87-79 UNDERDOG UNDER 185.5

Thursday, Apr. 21
Chicago Indiana
Miami Philadelphia
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 22
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Saturday, Apr. 23
Chicago Indiana
Dallas Portland
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Sunday, Apr. 24
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans

Monday, Apr. 25
San Antonio Memphis
Portland Dallas
Oklahoma City Denver

Tuesday, Apr. 26
Indiana Chicago
New York Boston
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, Apr. 27
Philadelphia Miami
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City

Thursday, Apr. 28
Chicago Indiana
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers New Orleans
Dallas Portland

Friday, Apr. 29
Miami Philadelphia
Boston New York
San Antonio Memphis
Oklahoma City Denver

Saturday, Apr. 30
Indiana Chicago
Atlanta Orlando
New Orleans L.A. Lakers
Portland Dallas

Sunday, May 1
Philadelphia Miami
New York Boston
Memphis San Antonio
Denver Oklahoma City




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, April 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 7:00 PM ET Indiana +4 500
Indiana - Under 189 500

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami -4.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 186 500

Dallas - 10:30 PM ET Dallas +5.5 500
Portland - Under 186.5 500

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Magic-Hawks meet in Friday's Game 3 in Atlanta


ORLANDO MAGIC

at ATLANTA HAWKS

Eastern Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Friday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -1.5, Total: 181

After having split the first two games of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series in Orlando, the Hawks and Magic head to Atlanta for a pivotal Game 3 Friday night.

The Magic squandered Dwight Howard’s 46-point, 19-rebound effort in a 10-point loss on Saturday before bouncing back to even the series on Tuesday behind Howard’s 33 points and 19 boards. Unlike Game 1 when no Orlando player besides Howard and Jameer Nelson scored more than six points, six Magic players tallied eight or more in Game 2.

The Hawks led by as many as 10 in the second quarter, 32-22, before a 12-2 run by the Magic tied it at 34-34. Orlando led 48-42 at halftime and used a 10-1 run to close the third quarter and take an 11-point lead into the fourth. The Hawks battled back, going on a 12-2 run to cut the Magic's lead to 78-76 with 2:14 remaining in regulation. That’s when Jameer Nelson, who played 38 minutes despite having missed part of the Magic's morning shoot-around with a migraine headache, made the key play in the game. He sprinted toward a loose ball, dove onto the parquet floor and collected it before Atlanta’s Kirk Hinrich could, then made a pass that eventually led to a Hedo Turkoglu hoop to culminate the possession. Jason Richardson’s three-pointer with 1:08 left increased Orlando’s margin to 83-76 and put the game out of reach.

Jamal Crawford led Atlanta with 25 points while Josh Smith, playing through an elbow injury, scored 17. The Hawks got 14 points from Joe Johnson and 10 points and 10 rebounds from Al Horford. The Hawks are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS in their six meetings with the Magic during the 2010-11 regular and postseasons, and they won both regular-season meetings in Atlanta despite being an underdog both times. That’s a far cry from last postseason’s four-game sweep in which the Hawks lost all four contests by an average of more than 25 points per game.

This following three-star trend from the FoxSheets likes Atlanta to keep its ATS success going against the Magic in Game 3:

ORLANDO is 5-19 ATS (20.8%, -15.9 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The average score was ORLANDO 91.0, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers-Hornets play pivotal Game 3 Friday


LOS ANGELES LAKERS

at NEW ORLEANS HORNETS


Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Friday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -5, Total: 183.5

After starting the series with a surprising split in L.A., the Lakers and Hornets seem ready for another defensive struggle Friday night in New Orleans.

After Chris Paul torched Derek Fisher and the Lakers in the Hornets’ Game 1 win (32 points, 14 assists), the Lakers changed up their defense and put Kobe Bryant on Paul. It worked well, as Paul was relatively contained (20 points, nine assists) and playing without second option David West, the Hornets didn’t have nearly enough firepower to keep up. The result was an 87-78 win for L.A.

Of course, the Lakers paid a price too. Because he was focusing on his defense, Bryant had a terrible offensive night. After scoring 34 in Game 1, he took only 10 shots and made just three of them in Game 2. His 11-point output was his lowest in a postseason game since Game 3 of the 2004 Finals, a span of 83 playoff games. With Pau Gasol having a second straight terrible night (he’s scored just eight points in each of the first two games of the series, shooting 4-for-19 from the field), Andrew Bynum (17 points on 8-for-11 shooting), Lamar Odom (16 points, 8-12 FG) and Ron Artest (15 points, including two three-pointers) stepped up to lead a balanced Lakers attack.

The Hornets are undermanned, but their deliberate, defensive style works in their favor. Only Portland played at a slower pace than New Orleans during the regular season. The Hornets allowed just 92.3 PPG at home during the regular season.

It’s a tough game to call because you don’t know when Gasol is going to turn it back on. But considering the Lakers seem likely to trade Bryant’s offense for defense again, and the fact that the Hornets have a tendency to make games as ugly as possible, I like New Orleans to keep it close and at least cover on Friday night.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend that shows the Lakers don’t often respond well after the kind of slugfest they saw in Game 2:

LA LAKERS are 2-16 ATS (11.1%, -15.6 Units) after a combined score of 175 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 98.9, OPPONENT 100.4 - (Rating = 4*).

And this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also expects a low-scoring game coming in Under the total.

NEW ORLEANS is 23-8 UNDER (74.2%, +14.2 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 92.6, OPPONENT 93.4 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: New York Knicks host Boston Celtics

The New York Knicks have done everything right in their playoff series against the Boston Celtics except win a game. They’ll try to break through Friday night as the scene shifts to New York, but injuries are a big question mark.

The Don Best odds screen has New York as two-point home favorites despite point guard Chauncey Billups being listed as doubtful. The total is 191 points and ESPN will broadcast from Madison Square Garden at 4 p.m. (PT).

The Knicks (42-42 straight-up, 48-34-2 against the spread) are down 2-0 after their 96-93 loss on Tuesday. Billups (knee) didn’t play and power forward Amare Stoudemire (back) sat out the second half, but they still led 93-92 with 19 seconds remaining. A big bucket by Boston’s Kevin Garnett and his subsequent steal were the difference.

Carmelo Anthony was absolutely brilliant with 42 points and 17 rebounds. He quieted his critics after struggling in the opener (5-of-18 shooting, 15 points). New York blew a three-point lead with 37 seconds left in that game, losing 87-85.

Billups’ status is a major cause for concern. He had a cortisone shot and fluid drained on Wednesday and missed practice Thursday. Toney Douglas had 14 points last game in his first playoff start, but had just two assists in over 34 minutes and was a turnstile on defense against Rajon Rondo (30 points).

Stoudemire missed practice on Thursday, but is probable Friday. Back injuries are tricky and he could be less than 100 percent. Shooting guard Landry Fields and center Ronny Turiaf are two non-scorers in the starting lineup right now, so big point production from Stoudemire, Anthony and Douglas will be vital.

New York is 2-0 ATS in this series and 4-2 ATS on the year against Boston despite losing all six games. There’s been a strong underdog trend in this year’s opening round, 12-4 ATS pending Thursday’s results.

The ‘under’ is 2-0 this series and 17-4-1 in Boston’s last 22 games. However, the ‘over’ is 6-1 in New York’s last seven home games and 24-17 for the season there.

The fortunate Celtics (58-26 SU, 38-44-2 ATS) are up 2-0 in the opening round for the second straight year. Last year, they took Game 3 in Miami 100-98 as 4 ½-point underdogs before losing Game 4 (101-92). The Heat had yet to sign free agents LeBron James and Chris Bosh.

Rondo’s scoring was badly needed last game. Paul Pierce is averaging 19 PPG this series, but shooting just 41.2 percent. He can’t be counted on for much more, expending so much energy covering Anthony.

Center Shaquille O’Neal (calf) has missed the first two games and is listed as doubtful Friday. The latest rumors have him out for the playoffs. Starter Jermaine O’Neal played well in Game 1 with 12 points, but had just two in 20 minutes last game. He’s probable with a wrist injury.

Boston out-rebounded New York in Game 1 (44-34), but the Knicks dominated in Game 2 (53-37). Their 20 offensive rebounds last game and free throw attempt differential (27-16) allowed them to hang in there despite being out-shot from the floor 47-35.6 percent.

The Boston bench has been anemic, scoring just 22 total points in the series. Glen Davis seems the best hope to turn it around, but he has just six total points. The Jeff Green acquisition from Oklahoma City for Kendrick Perkins looks worse every day. He has 10 total points and appears uncomfortable in a reserve role.

Boston is 8-5-1 ATS on two days rest this season. The 30-somethings of Garnett, Pierce and Ray Allen always appreciate a little extra time off.

Game 4 will be played Sunday in the Big Apple. Spike Lee and the rest of the celebrity fans would love to see New York aiming to tie the series instead of fighting elimination.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic split their NBA playoff betting proceedings in the City Beautiful in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Now the scene shifts to the Peach State, where Atlanta will hope to fly high and the Magic will try and make the Hawks disappear.

Tip-off on Friday night from Phillips Arena is slated for 5:00 (PT).

The first two games in this series have been vastly different. The Hawks shot the lights out at Amway Center in Game 1, especially in the middle two quarters, to take the 103-93 win, while Orlando's defense cracked down in an 88-82 victory in Game 2.

The big, big problem that the Magic have is their big man, Dwight Howard, really can't do this all by himself. Sure, Howard is shooting 71.4 percent from the field and averaging 39.5 PPG with 19.0 RPG in this series. No one is stopping him, and Atlanta has conceded that fact.

The problem for the man they call "Superman" is that he already has a whopping 15 turnovers in two games, and he has picked up five fouls in both efforts as well.

Jameer Nelson has come up big in the postseason once again for Orlando, averaging 20.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG. However, beyond these two, there really isn't much for head coach Stan Van Gundy to be happy about.

Jason Richardson was brought to the Sunshine State to score in situations like this, and he only has 12 total points against seven fouls. Gilbert Arenas, also brought to Orlando to bring an offensive spark off the bench, has only managed eight total points in 19 minutes of game time.

Howard is also the only player on the team shooting better than 42 percent from the floor, and the rest of the team outside of Howard and Nelson is shooting less than 30 percent for the series.

The Hawks haven't had a ton of help from their bench, but this really has been their story for quite a few seasons now. Sure, technically Jamal Crawford does come off of the bench, but we know that Zaza Pachulia is effectively a bench player who happens to be out there to start the game.

Crawford is the team's leading scorer in the playoffs with 24.0 PPG, and he is shooting 58.3 percent from beyond the arc as well.

Joe Johnson has come alive in the playoffs, playing virtually every minute of both games and accounting for 19.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 5.0 APG. Josh Smith and Al Horford are both bordering on double-doubles per game in the postseason, while Kirk Hinrich, generally known as a defensive point guard, is doing his share on the other end of the court by averaging 11.0 PPG.

It was well documented what happened when these two teams met in the playoffs last year, as the Magic absolutely crippled Atlanta in four straight games in the biggest beat-down in NBA postseason history for a series. However, since that point, the Hawks have fired back, covering the NBA odds six meetings in a row, including these two in the playoffs.

The Game 2 'under' marked the seventh time in the last eight in this series that a game has failed to reach the 'total.'

Oddsmakers have the Magic lined as short one point favorites on Friday, while the 'total' has been set at 181.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Playoff Tips

April 22, 2011


Bettors have a tripleheader treat on tap for Friday night in the NBA Playoffs. The Knicks will finally host a postseason game at Madison Square Garden, as they look for their first win against Boston.

In Atlanta at Philips Arena, the Hawks will try to take a 2-1 series advantage over Orlando, which swept them in last year’s second round. The nightcap contest will go down in the Big Easy, where the Hornets will take on the Lakers at New Orleans Arena.

New York (42-42 straight up, 48-34-2 against the spread) covered the number in Games 1 and 2 in Beantown. However, the Knicks came up short in a pair of upset bids.

They held a 51-39 lead at halftime of Game 1, but the Celtics rallied to capture an 87-85 win as six-point home favorites. Ray Allen drained the game-winning 3-pointer with 11.6 seconds remaining. On the ensuing possession, Carmelo Anthony settled for a deep 3-point attempt from the right wing that was off the mark.

All five Boston (58-26 SU, 38-44-2 ATS) starters scored in double figures led by Allen, who had 24 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor. Paul Pierce added 18 points and Garnett chipped in with 15 points and 13 rebounds. Rajon Rondo nearly had a triple-double, tallying 10 points, nine boards and nine assists.

Stoudemire finished with 28 points and 11 rebounds, but Anthony was just 5-of-18 from the field and had just 15 points. Nevertheless, Mike D’Antoni’s team took the cash.

Chauncey Billups went down with a knee injury late in the fourth quarter and was unable to continue. He missed Game 2 and his status for Game 3 remains ‘doubtful.’

In Game 2, it was Stoudemire who had to leave the game with back spasms. With him out and the Celtics leading by double digits, the Knicks looked dead in the water. But Anthony would have nothing of the sort, exploding in the fourth quarter en route to a 42-point effort.

The Syracuse product, who led the Orange to the 2003 national title as a freshman, also pulled down 17 rebounds and dished out six helpers. Anthony couldn’t deliver on the final possession, though.

He made the right play but it didn’t work. Anthony got doubled and fed Jarred Jeffries in the lane, but Jeffries didn’t even look at the basket and had the ball stolen by Kevin Garnett when he tried to make a pass in traffic.

Rondo was the catalyst for the winner, scoring 30 points and dishing out seven assists. Pierce went for 20 points and Allen added 18. KG had another double-double with 12 points, 10 boards and six assists.

Stoudemire was only able to for 17 minutes, finishing with just four points and five boards. Toney Douglas got most of Billups’ minutes, scoring 14 points, but he was unable to do anything to slow down Rondo on the defensive end.

Most books are listing the Knicks as two-point favorites with a total of 191 ½. Stoudemire was listed as ‘probable’ as of Thursday night.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David wasn’t expecting to see the Celtics as underdogs. David said, “I was surprised that the Knicks opened as short favorites, especially with the injury issues. Maybe the books are looking for action on the Celtics?

“Not sure, but you have to be aware that Boston owns a 6-4 record ATS as a road underdog this season but the last two instances were losses and against playoff teams in Chicago (81-97) and Miami (77-100). Those following this Celtics squad all season know that they go through the motions and they’re next to impossible to handicap. So which team shows up in Game 3? Will it be the one that is happy with taking one victory at Madison Square Garden or does Doc Rivers put some sense into his troops and let them know that Miami could be resting for the next round? Keep in mind that the Knicks have gone 11-5 ATS as home favorites of six points or less this season. This line is tricky for a reason.”

The ‘over’ has been a money maker for New York at home, cashing at a 24-17 clip. On the flip side, the’ under’ has gone 25-15-1 in Boston’s road assignments.

ESPN will have the telecast at 7:05 p.m. Eastern.

Like the Knicks, Atlanta (45-39 SU, 39-45 ATS) hooked up its backers as road underdogs in Games 1 and 2 at Orlando. Unlike New York, the Hawks were able to get an outright win and return home with the series knotted at 1-1.

Larry Drew’s team took Game 1 by a 103-93 count as an 8 ½-point underdog. Gamblers backing Atlanta on the money line brought home a lucrative return in the plus-360 range (risk $100 to win $360).

Joe Johnson scored a team-high 25 points, while Jamal Crawford supplied 23 points from off the bench. Al Horford and Josh Smith added 16 and 15 points, respectively. In the losing effort, Dwight Howard had a monster game with 46 points and 19 rebounds.

Despite winning outright in Game 1 for its fourth win in five head-to-head meetings against the Magic, Atlanta found itself catching 9 1/2 points in Game 2. Even with Horford saddled with foul trouble, the Hawks raced out to a double-digit lead in the first half. The advantage wouldn’t last, however, with Orlando winning the second quarter by a 32-20 margin.

When Atlanta fell down by 14 in the second half, Stan Van Gundy’s team appeared poised to run away and hide. But that didn’t happen. In fact, the Hawks trimmed the deficit to two on a Horford dunk in transition off a sweet pass from Josh Smith.

On the next possession, Hedo Turkoglu got a bucket in the lane but not before the ball bounced out and rolled around the rim for what seemed like an eternity. After a defensive stop, Jason Richardson inserted the dagger with a clutch 3 from the right wing and the Magic eventually won an 88-82 decision.

The ‘over’ hit in Game 1, but the ‘under’ prevailed in Game 2. The ‘under’ is now 5-1 in the six encounters between these Eastern Conference rivals.

Tip-off at Philips Arena is scheduled for Friday night at 8:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

New Orleans (47-37 SU, 41-41-2 ATS) stunned the two-time defending champs Sunday afternoon, beating the Lakers 109-100 behind an incredible performance from Chris Paul at Staples Center. Paul dominated with 33 points, 14 assists, seven rebounds and four steals. The Hornets won outright as double-digit underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a payout of at least plus-500 (and +675 at the Las Vegas Hilton!).

Jarrett Jack played a huge role in the Game 1 shocker. Jack came off the bench to scored 15 points and dish out five assists without committing a turnover. Aaron Gray also provided a lift from off of the pine, making all five shots on his way to a 12-point effort.

In Game 2, the line went from 10 to 12 in favor of the Lakers, who won 87-78 despite getting next to nothing from Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. Phil Jackson’s squad got ahead of the number several times in the second half, but the Hornets scored enough points in the final minutes to cover the healthy spread.

Bryant was just 3-of-10 from the field and barely got into double figures with 11 points. The perennial All-Star had just as many turnovers (two) as assists (two). Gasol was even worse with the Staples crowd cringing every time he got a touch on the blocks in the second half. He would score just eight points on 2-of-10 shooting.

Fortunately for Los Angeles, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom came to play. The big man Bynum produced 17 points and 11 rebounds, while Odom added 16 points and seven boards.

Paul beat the buzzer to end the second and third quarters, but he didn’t get enough help this time around. He finished with 20 points and nine assists compared to merely one turnover. Trevor Ariza was outstanding, completely shutting down Kobe on the defensive end and scoring 22 points.

L.A. won both regular-season meetings in the Crescent City, but it will need to bring much more effort and execution into Friday’s showdown. It would help to get Gasol going, too. He appears to have completely lost his confidence and the physical play of Carl Landry is clearly bothering the All-Star power forward.

The Hornets own a 6-5 spread record as home underdogs. Without David West, Monty Williams can’t ask for much more out of his team. Even in Wednesday’s loss, the fight and intensity was evident for 48 minutes.

The one exception might have been a Lakers’ fast break that resulted in an offensive rebound and then a give-away foul by Paul. But after that sequence, Jack ripped into Landry and Emaka Okafor for not hustling back on defense. In essence, Jack made it clear that he’d be dealing out eye dots to his teammates if the same thing happened again. (LOVED IT!!!)

David provided this analysis on the total: “Game 2 saw the Lakers and Hornets combine for 165 points, which never threatened the closing total of 187. And that result occurred after the pair combined for 209 in the opener of the best-of-seven series.

“For Game 3, the number is back down to 184 which is still a little higher than the total (182.5) in Game 1. In the six meetings this season, the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 but the second installment could have total bettors scratching their head. For starters, Kobe decided to put defense ahead of offense and guard Paul for the majority of the game. He took a total of 10 shots, making just three.

“The pace was off as well, plus both teams only took a combined 22 treys and they combined for 19 misses from the free-throw line. A lot of question marks but if you’re looking for a consistent trend, then check out the total mark on New Orleans, which stands at 52-31 to the ‘under’ and that includes a 25-16 (61%) mark in The Big Easy.”