The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Playoff Betting: Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks, seeded third in the NBA's Western Conference, are expected to roll on to the second round of the playoffs. However, the sixth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers could have other ideas.

These two foes will square off at American Airlines Center in Big D on Saturday night, with a tip time coming at 6:30 (PT). If you want to catch this NBA playoff betting battle live, you can see it on ESPN.

Portland really could be a sneaky team, not just in this series, but in the entire postseason. This is a club that went 28-14 from January 15 through the end of the regular season, one of the best marks in the league in that stretch. Business really started to pick up when the club got healthy and after the acquisition of Gerald Wallace.

We know that Brandon Roy might not ever really be the same player that he was a season and a half ago, as his knees might not let him do what he is capable of doing. However, Wallace has really been the perfect complement to LaMarcus Aldridge with injuries limiting Roy's court time.

Wallace is averaging 15.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 2.0 SPG since coming to Portland. Aldridge is good for 21.8 PPG and 8.8 RPG.

Wesley Matthews, the only member of this team to play in all 82 games this season, had a breakout year, scoring 15.9 PPG. He really wasn't used all that much at the outset of the season, but from the point that he took over the starting shooting guard spot, he was lights out.

This is going to be the start of a heck of a test for Dallas. The Mavericks have never won an NBA Championship, and Dirk Nowitzki has built up the distinction of being a player that can put up great stats but will never win the big one.

This year though, there's no denying that he should be an MVP candidate even though we know that he won't get a sniff of the award. Forget about the fact that Nowitzki averaged 23.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG on the campaign. Forget about the 16 double-doubles. Forget about a dozen 30+ point efforts.

The only stat you need to know about Nowitzki is that the team was just 3-8 in 11 games in which he was out of the lineup, meaning the Mavs were 54-17 with him in there. Prorated over 82 games, the Mavericks would have gone 62-20 and tied for the best record in the NBA.

It's not like Nowitzki doesn't have plenty of help either. Jason Terry is good for 15.8 PPG, and at times this season, some or all of Shawn Marion, Tyson Chandler, Jose Barea, Peja Stojakovic and Rodrique Beaubois have been double-digit point scorers.

Jason Kidd is no longer doing a lot of shooting, but he is good for 8.2 APG and 4.4 RPG.

The regular season series has to scare the wits out of the Mavs as well. Portland won the two meetings at home in the Rose Garden, 104-96 and 104-101, and Nowitzki was in the fold for both games.

The Blazers went 2-2 SU and 3-1 against the NBA odds this year versus Dallas, and they are now 6-2 ATS over the course of their last eight meetings overall.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Saturday, April 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia 89 Final Philadelphia +10.5 500
Miami 97 Under 189.5 500

Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET Orlando -8.5 500
Orlando - Under 179.5 500

Portland - 9:30 PM ET Portland +5 500
Dallas - Over 186 500

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Bum!

[StarDust Bum]

Sorry forgot to post the earlier game also.......

Sport Game Score Pick Amount Result Units

NBA Indiana 99 Chicago -11.5 500 LOSS -550
Chicago 104 Under 188 500 LOSS -550

NBA Philadelphia 89 Philadelphia +10.5 500 WON +500
Miami 97 Under 189.5 500 WON +500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers host Hornets

Money time. Show time. Time to turn on the switch.

Whatever cliché time phrase there is fits the Los Angeles Lakers as they open their first-round Western Conference playoff series hosting New Orleans Sunday at 12:30 p.m. PT on ABC.

The two-time defending world champion Lakers finished the regular season losing and failing to cover in five of their last seven games.

But is there any doubt that the second-seeded 57-25 Lakers won’t steamroll the seventh-seeded Hornets?

The Lakers have the shortest odds to win a third consecutive world championship at plus 185, according to Bookmaker.com. The Lakers are minus 2100 to dispatch the Hornets in the series with New Orleans plus 1250 and 90/1 to win the title.

Despite their recent struggles and center Andrew Bynum not 100 percent because of a bone bruise in his surgically-repaired right knee, the Lakers still are 10-point favorites in Game 1 with the ‘over/under’ at 183 ½. It’s only the fourth time all season the Hornets are taking double-digit points.

However, New Orleans has failed to cover its last eight playoff games when getting between five and 10 ½ points.

David West, the Hornets’ leadings scorer at 18.9 points a game, is out with a knee injury.

Point guard Chris Paul, who ranked fourth in the league in assists at 9.8 per contest and first in steals, shot just 41.5 percent from the floor in his last 10 games. Paul hasn’t been 100 percent much of the season due to a sore knee.

The Lakers swept the Hornets in four regular season games wining three of the matchups by double-digits and not allowing New Orleans to reach triple-digits in any game while going 3-1 ATS.

The team’s last meeting occurred on March 27 when the Lakers romped, 102-84, as nine-point home favorites behind 30 points from Kobe Bryant and 23 from Pau Gasol, who also grabbed 16 rebounds. The combined 186 points just dipped ‘under’ the 188 ½-point total.

This continued the Lakers’ trend of beating the Hornets. Los Angeles is 9-2 versus New Orleans during the past three seasons.

Bynum is expected to play in the series opener having had five days to get his knee in shape. The Lakers also should have Matt Barnes available. He missed the Lakers’ final two regular-season contests with knee soreness.

Reserve guard Steve Blake is out for Los Angeles due to chicken pox. The Lakers, though, still should posses the better reserves thanks to sixth man Lamar Odom. The Hornets have no one to match up against the athletic 6-foot-10 Odom, who averaged 14.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game.

The Hornets rank fifth defensively allowing 94 points per contest, but are 27th on offense averaging 94.9 points. The Lakers rank eighth defensively yielding 95.4 points a game and are ninth on offense at 101.5 points. Bryant was the league’s fifth-leading scorer at 25.3 points a game.

It’s not just Bryant and Odom who give the Hornets matchup problems. Gasol averaged 22.3 points and 12.8 rebounds versus the Hornets.

The Hornets’ only really decent front-court player with West out is Emeka Okafor, who is playing in the postseason for the first time. Okafor is a good rebounder and shot-blocker, but is not a big scorer.

Carl Landry has done a nice job replacing West, leading the Hornets in scoring the past 10 games at 14.9 points per contest and shooting 51.8 percent from the field.

Paul, though, is the key to any hope the Hornets having of being competitive. He’ll look to pick-and-roll the Lakers to death while taking advantage of a matchup against Derek Fisher.

The Lakers were just 16-25 ATS at home this season. However, they have covered 14 of the last 20 times they’ve met teams with a winning record.

The Hornets, who are 46-36, finished five games under .500 on the road. They were 19-21-1 ATS away from home.

Totals players may want to note that the ‘under’ has cashed in 22 of the Hornets’ last 32 games when taking points on the road.

Game 2 is set for Staples Center on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. PT with TNT broadcasting.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Boston Celtics, Knicks renew playoff rivalry

The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics resume their storied rivalry in a first-round playoff series beginning Sunday. This is the first playoff meeting between the teams since 1990, with Boston holding the 7-6 edge all-time.

Bookmaker.com has the Celtics as six-point home favorites with a total of 197 points. They’re minus 350 in the series price with New York plus 290.

TNT will have the broadcast at 4 p.m. (PT) from TD Banknorth Garden. It’s the third of four Sunday games, coming right after New Orleans at the L.A. Lakers on ABC.

New York (42-40 straight-up, 46-34-2 against the spread) got swept all four games by Boston this year, going 2-2 ATS. One of those was the last day of the regular season on Wednesday, when both teams rested key players. Only one of Boston’s wins came with Carmelo Anthony suited up.

Anthony was acquired from Denver on Feb. 22 along with point guard Chauncey Billups. Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Ray Felton were the key names going the other way, arguably the biggest trade in Knicks history. New York’s record post-trade was 14-14 SU (13-15 ATS) including a six-game losing streak and a seven-game winning streak.

The seven game winning streak ended last Tuesday against Chicago (103-90 loss). The Knicks scored 115.7 PPG during the winning streak (going 6-1 ATS) and allowed 105.9 PPG. They were tied for 27th in points allowed for the year at 105.7 PPG.

Power forward Amare Stoudemire (ankle) missed three recent games before getting some run last game. He’s probable for Sunday in New York’s only listed injury.

The Celtics (56-26 SU, 38-42-2 ATS) have been mired in mediocrity the last month-plus, going 10-11 SU (9-12 ATS). That dropped them down to the No. 3 seed in the conference behind Chicago and Miami.

Coach Doc Rivers decided to rest starters Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo the last two games of the season. The first game they sat was at Washington last Monday, a surprising move as Boston trailed Miami by just one game at that point.

Rivers wanted to rest his guys for the playoffs, but he might have also been sending a message to his stars. Celtics players have been vocal in their displeasure of the recent Kendrick Perkins trade. That netted them two current bench players in Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green.

Krstic and Jermaine O’Neal are the current centers with Shaquille O’Neal (calf) still questionable on Sunday. Shaq has played a total of five minutes since Feb. 1, so his time will likely be limited even if he does suit up.

The Celtics are 33-8 SU and 20-19-2 ATS at home this year. They’re 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four at home, with one the meaningless game with the Knicks. The road has been a different story lately, 0-4 SU and ATS, including terrible efforts at Chicago (97-81) and Miami (100-77).

The matchups for this series are very interesting. New York has two 25 PPG caliber scorers in Anthony and Stoudemire. They can each have success going one-on-one against Pierce and Garnett, both several years older than their Big Apple counterparts.

Boston’s biggest individual advantage is Rondo against Billups. Rondo has far too much quickness and loves to get into the lane for easy opportunities for his teammates.

Allen (16.5 PPG) also has a solid advantage at shooting guard over Landry Fields, as the latter has seen his numbers go down since Anthony’s arrival. New York will start Ronny Turiaf at center, but will rotate several guys. The biggest loss of Perkins was on defense as he made guys pay physically for coming in the lane.

Boston gets the edge on the bench despite a number of players being recently acquired. The Knicks lost most of their depth in the Anthony trade. Rivers also gets the coaching edge over Mike D’Antoni.

While the individual matchups are pretty close, basketball is a team sport and that’s where the Celtics excel. Their players are almost unselfish to a fault, passing the ball to find the open man. New York relies a lot on Anthony’s isolation moves and on the three-point shot (second most attempts in the league).

Boston is first in the league in points allowed (91.1 PPG). The ‘under’ is 16-5-1 in its last 22 games.

This looks like a very tight series, with an upset certainly a possibility.

Prediction: Celtics in seven

[StarDust Bum]

Grizzlies-Spurs Outlook

April 16, 2011


Western Conference First Round

**No. 1 San Antonio vs. No. 8 Memphis**

Series Price: San Antonio -370 Memphis +310

Series Format: San Antonio 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 – Sunday, Apr. 17
Game 2 – Wednesday, Apr. 20
Game 3 – Saturday, Apr. 23
Game 4 – Monday, Apr. 25
Game 5 - Wednesday, Apr. 27
Game 6 - Friday, Apr. 29
Game 7 - Sunday, May 1




Head to Head Comparisons
Team SU ATS Home Away O/U PPG DPPG
61-21 45-35 36-5 25-16 46-34 103.7 98
46-36 52-29 30-11 16-25 40-41 99.9 97.6




2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Dec. 18, 2010 San Antonio (-11.5) 112 vs. Memphis 106 OVER 197
Feb. 27, 2011 San Antonio (-9) 95 vs. Memphis 88 UNDER 197
Mar. 1, 2011 Memphis (+1.5) 109 at San Antonio 93 OVER 193
Mar. 27, 2011 Memphis (+1.5) 111 vs. San Antonio 104 OVER 199


Skinny: Did you know that most books had San Antonio listed as high as a 40/1 choice to win the NBA Finals at the start of the season? It's understandable, considering the Spurs didn't make any major offseason moves and most pundits believed the Western Conference went through the two-time defending champions, L.A. Lakers.

Up until the last day of the regular season, San Antonio owned the best record in the league and was clearly the most consistent team. However, the Spurs still don't get much respect and clearly isn't in this series as the top seed in the West.

What's amazing about San Antonio is that the big three of Tony Parker (17.5 PPG, 6.6 APG), Manu Ginobili (17.4 PPG) and Tim Duncan (13.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) didn't exactly have stellar seasons and some would say it was Duncan's worst in his 15-year career.

So why are the Spurs so good? They're deeper than any team in the league and they can shoot with the best of them. As a team, the Spurs shot a league-best 40 percent from 3-point land and most of the damage comes from bench players Gary Neal and Matt Bonner. While those two are the gunners, the bangers include DeJuan Blair (8.3 PPG, 7 RPG) and veteran Antonio McDyess (5.4 RPG). Plus they have complimentary players in George Hill (11.6 PPG) and Richard Jefferson (11 PPG) that can create as well. San Antonio was once known as a great defensive team but that's not the case with Greg Popovich's squad this season (98 PPG). To put things in perspective, the Spurs have never allowed over 90 PPG during their four championship runs under Pops.
Is Memphis the right team to pull off the upset? Head coach Lionel Hollins has done a great job overcoming injuries and has gotten the most out of every player on his roster. Forward Zach Randolph (20.1 PPG, 12.2 RPG) had a career season for the Grizzlies and really stepped it up when Rudy Gay (19.8 PPG) was ruled 'out' for the season with a shoulder injury. The backcourt has received nice production out of Mike Conley (13.7 PPG, 6.2 APG) and O.J. Mayo (11.3 PPG).

Defensively, the Grizzlies lean on the athletic Tony Allen, who is arguably the toughest on-ball defender in the game. Marc Gasol (11.7 PPG) might not receive the notoriety of his brother (Pau - L.A. Lakers) but he's a lot tougher and has shown his defensive prowess (1.7 blocks) in the middle.

Two weaknesses that stick out with the Grizz are being able to find "the guy" at the end of the game with Gay gone, plus they don't shoot well from 3-point land (33.4%). Defense and size can help you in the playoffs but sooner or later you have to score and that's where San Antonio holds a big edge.


Head-to-Head:The regular season series between the pair was knotted at two games a piece but the Grizzlies covered the number in all four. The home team came out on top each time and you can see that shooting was the all-important factor in each battle, especially for Memphis. The Grizz shot 55 and 52 percent in their home wins, but only 37 and 44 percent in the two losses at San Antonio.

Injuries also played a major part. Parker missed the Mar. 1 loss at Memphis while Duncan sat out the setback on Mar. 27, plus Ginobili left early in that affair too with an injury. It should also be noted that Memphis was without Gay for all four of the encounters.


Gambling Notes: Just looking at the opening number (Spurs -6) for Game 1 and the series price (Spurs -370), some bettors have to be scratching their heads on this one. That status of Ginobili (elbow) is 'doubtful' for the opener, which tells us that the line would probably be closer to eight if he's ready to go. During the season, the Spurs were as high as 11 ½ at home and they were favorites in their two trips to Memphis as well.

The question you ask yourself is do you bet on arguably the best team or do you bet on the club that's made gamblers the most money this season? Memphis has been a beast ATS (52-29) all season, especially as a road underdog (22-9). Looking for a straight up road win for Memphis might be reaching (16-25), especially when you delve into the 16 victories with only seven coming against playoff squads. On the other hand, San Antonio has been a great wager on the road (25-16 SU, 26-14 ATS) this season.

Total players saw the 'over' go 3-1 and the opener for Game 1 is hovering between 193 and 194 points, which seems a tad low. San Antonio (46-34) led the league with 'over' tickets all season, plus Memphis (41-41) was consistent too. Again, gamblers need to look at the Spurs' defense or lack thereof and the amount of bombs they toss up from 3-point land.


Outlook: NBA enthusiasts should be aware that the eighth seed has only knocked off the top seed three times in playoff history, and two of those instances (Nuggets over Seattle, Knicks over Heat) occurred in best-of-five formats. The other upset was Golden State's shocker over Dallas during the 2007 postseason. Can it happen here? Sure but at the end of the day, talent and experience usually prevail in a seven-game series and the Spurs should get the job done.

We do believe Memphis will win its first playoff game in franchise history and could notch two victories if the shots fall. That's a big if and we expect the Spurs to advance in five games. Gamblers looking to stay away from the healthy series price can take a shot at Sportsbook.com with their Exact Games Props.

Exact Games Props at Sportsbook.com
Games Odds
4 Games Grizzlies Win +4000
4 Games Spurs Win +450
5 Games Grizzlies Win +2000
5 Games Spurs Win +220
6 Games Grizzlies Win +600
6 Games Spurs Win +275
7 Games Grizzlies Win +800
7 Games Spurs Win +350

[StarDust Bum]

Hornets-Lakers Outlook

April 17, 2011


Western Conference First Round

**No. 2 L.A. Lakers vs. No. 7 New Orleans**

Series Price: L.A. Lakers -2200 New Orleans +1300

Series Format: L.A. Lakers 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 – Sunday, Apr. 17
Game 2 – Wednesday, Apr. 20
Game 3 – Friday, Apr. 22
Game 4 – Sunday, Apr. 24
Game 5 - Tuesday, Apr. 26
Game 6 - Thursday, Apr. 28
Game 7 - Saturday, Apr. 30



Head to Head Comparisons
Team SU ATS Home Away O/U PPG DPPG
57-25 38-44 30-11 27-14 33-48 101.5 95.4
46-36 39-40 28-13 18-23 31-50 94.9 94




2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Dec. 29, 2010 L.A. Lakers (-3) 103 at New Orleans 88 OVER 190
Jan. 7, 2011 L.A. Lakers (-7.5) 101 vs. New Orleans 97 OVER 188
Feb. 5, 2011 L.A. Lakers (-5) 101 at New Orleans 95 UNDER 188
Mar. 27, 2011 L.A. Lakers (-9) 102 vs. New Orleans 84 UNDER 189


Skinny: Los Angeles is gunning for a third straight NBA title and that quest begins with its first-round series against New Orleans. Phil Jackson’s core nucleus from the last two championship squad remains intact, although the team has added a few different pieces to the second unit.

Matt Barnes is a long defender with a nasty streak and plenty of postseason experience. The back-up point guard is now veteran Steve Blake, who gets the minutes that previously went to Jordan Farmer.

Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are still three of the league elite players, while Andrew Bynum is a beast on the boards when he can stay healthy. L.A. had a few disconcerting losses before the All-Star break, but it recovered to win 17 of its next 18 games.

Derek Fisher has aged quite a bit, but he can still knock down clutch jumpers when needed. As for Ron Artest, you never know what you’re going to get but his physical style of play is perfect for the playoffs.

The Monte Williams Era began in spectacular fashion as New Orleans won its first eight games both straight up and against the spread. The Hornets would improve to 11-1 before coming back to earth.

Chris Paul is one of the Association’s best point guards, but this team’s postseason hopes virtually vanished when David West went down with a season-ending knee injury at Utah in late March. Since then, New Orleans has won five of 10 games.

West was an integral part of the offense, averaging 18.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Carl Landry has moved into the starting lineup with West out and he’s done an admirable job. However, the bench now lacks firepower.

Paul averages 15.8 points, 9.8 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game. He should be able to take advantage of Fisher and get into the lane at will. This should open up quality looks for Trevor Ariza and Marco Belinelli, both of whom need to play at an extremely high level for the Hornets to be competitive.

Head-To-Head: L.A. won all four head-to-head meetings in the regular season, covering the number at a 3-1 ATS clip. The ‘over’ also went 3-1.

On Dec. 29, the Lakers captured a 103-88 win at New Orleans as three-point road favorites. Lamar Odom was the catalyst with 24 points off the bench. Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum chipped in with 20 and 18 points, respectively. Chris Paul had 20 points and seven assists in the losing effort.

The next encounter was at Staples Center on Jan. 7, with L.A. winning a 101-97 decision. However, the Hornets took the cash as 7 ½-point road underdogs. Bryant scored a game-high 25 points, while Pau Gasol finished with 21 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists. Odom produced a double-double with 17 points and 13 boards. David West had a team-high 23 points and 12 rebounds in defeat.

L.A. returned to the Big Easy on Feb. 5 and knocked off New Orleans by a 101-95 count as a five-point road ‘chalk.’ Gasol made 13-of-17 shots en route to scoring 34 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. Bryant had 32 points and nine boards. Paul kept the Hornets in the game with 21 points and 15 assists.

The last meeting was on March 27 back in Tinseltown. The Lakers cruised to a 102-84 win as nine-point home favorites. Bryant scored a game-high 30 points and Gasol finished with 23 points, 16 rebounds and four blocked shots. Carl Landry had 24 points and 10 rebounds for the Hornets.

Gambling Notes: As of Saturday night, most books were listing the Lakers as 10-point home favorites for Game 1. The total is 182 ½ at most spots, while bettors can back the Hornets to win outright for a plus-500 return (risk $100 to win $500). ABC will provide television coverage Sunday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

New Orleans has been a double-digit underdog three times this year, going 1-2 ATS. As a double-digit ‘chalk,’ L.A. has limped to an abysmal 6-11 spread record.

We’ll most likely see the Hornets as home ‘dogs in Games 3 and 4. In such spots during the regular season, they compiled a 6-5 ATS mark.

The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these clubs.

Outlook: As mentioned earlier, the Hornets’ chances are slim to none without West. With that said, we can’t ignore how the Lakers haven’t been a lucrative team to support in the first round the last two seasons. They needed six games to shake Oklahoma City last year, going just 3-3 ATS.

In 2009, the Lakers went 2-3 versus the number in dispatching Utah in five games during the first round. In the West semifinals, they had to go the distance to beat Houston in a seven-game grind.

My point? The Lakers don’t always bring maximum effort in the early going of the postseason. It is vital that they do so this time around because there are a lot of miles on Kobe’s legs, and he could use a quick sweep and some needed rest. That certainly goes for Fisher and Gasol as well and you never know how Bynum’s knees are going to respond.

I’m going to call for the Lakers to deliver broom treatment, but I’m not necessarily suggesting supporting them on the road if they’re laying 4-6 points at New Orleans.

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder-Nuggets Outlook

April 14, 2011


No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Denver Nuggets

Series Prices: Oklahoma City -215, Denver +180

Series Format: Oklahoma City, 2-2-1-1-1


HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
50-32 44-34-4 33-8 17-24 37-42-3 107.5 102.7
55-27 43-38-1 30-11 25-16 45-37 104.8 101.0



2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
04/08/11 Denver 89 @ Oklahoma City 104 (-4.5) UNDER 203
04/05/11 Oklahoma City 101 (+4.5) @ Denver 94 UNDER 206.5
01/19/11 Oklahoma City 107 @ Denver 112 (-3.5) UNDER 221.5
12/25/10 Denver 106 @ Oklahoma City 114 (-6.5) OVER 203.5



Skinny: The Thunder has made great strides since moving from Seattle to Oklahoma City, as just three seasons after settling in the center of the country, this team is a division champion. Oklahoma City was eliminated in six games of last season's first round to the eventual champion Lakers, but this time around the Thunder battles a resurgent Nuggets' squad.

Denver may have lost its stars when Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups were traded to New York at the All-Star break, but that deal brought this team together. The Nuggets won nine of their first 11 games following the blockbuster trade, while finishing 18-7 over the last 25 games to grab the fifth seed. George Karl's club led the league in scoring at 107.5 ppg, but the Nuggets cashed the 'under' 16 times after the Anthony trade.

The Thunder were thought to be that "it" team in the Western Conference this season after giving the Lakers fits in the opening round of last season's playoffs. Kevin Durant led the league in scoring for the second straight season, while Russell Westbrook elevated himself as one of the elite young point guards in this league by scoring 21.2 ppg and dishing out 8.1 assists/game. Following the trade of Jeff Green to Boston for Kendrick Perkins, the Thunder ran off 19 wins in the last 24 games to clinch the franchise's first division title since 2005.

The Nuggets mixed in new acquisitions Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler to the nucleus of Nene, Ty Lawson, J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin, Al Harrington, and Arron Afflalo to put Denver in the playoffs for the eighth straight season. The only problem is the Nuggets have failed to get out of the opening round six times in this stretch, with the only aberration coming in 2009 when Denver lost in the conference finals to the Lakers.

Scott Brooks' squad claimed three of four regular season meetings, starting with a Christmas night victory at Oklahoma City Arena, 114-106. A second-half surge by the Thunder cashed tickets as 6 ½-point favorites, as Durant put up 44 points and OKC shot nearly 50% shooting from the floor. It didn't help matters that Anthony missed his second straight game following the death of his sister, but the Nuggets shot a blistering 52% from the field in the loss.

The lone victory for the Nuggets in this series came on January 19 at the Pepsi Center in a 112-107 triumph as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' Anthony was the difference this time around with 35 points, while Durant and Westbrook combined for 50 points in the defeat. The loss by the Thunder came during a difficult stretch as OKC faced five straight playoff squads and went just 2-3.

The Thunder grabbed the final two meetings over the Nuggets in a four-day span this month. Oklahoma City picked up a hard-fought 101-94 win in Denver as 4 ½-point 'dogs as Durant and Gallinari needed to be separated in the final minutes due to some pushing and shoving. The Thunder finished off the season series with a 104-89 thumping at home on April 8, as the Nuggets were held to 40% shooting and hit just five of 18 attempts from three-point range.

Gambling Notes: Oklahoma City may have owned a solid home record at 30-11, but the Thunder was extremely average as a home favorite with a 19-19-1 ATS mark. The scoreboard was lit up at Oklahoma City Arena this season as the Thunder cashed the 'over' in 25 of 41 home contests. The Thunder will likely be listed as underdogs when the series shifts to Denver, as OKC compiled a 14-9 ATS mark as road 'dogs.

The Nuggets finished the season covering nine of 11 games when receiving points on the highway, while going an insane 20-4-1 ATS after the Anthony trade to New York. Denver dropped only one home game since the All-Star break, the early April setback to Oklahoma City, but the Nuggets went 10-1 down the stretch at the Pepsi Center.

Series Outlook: It's put up or shut up for these two teams, who are each trying to make moves in the top-heavy Western Conference. The Thunder knows they likely will face the top-seeded Spurs in the next round, but they do take on a Nuggets' team that has come together since the departure of Anthony and Billups. Even though it's not a huge upset, the Nuggets have an excellent opportunity to end their first-round jinx and advance in six games.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, April 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Memphis - 1:00 PM ET Memphis +6 500
San Antonio - Under 193.5 500

New Orleans - 3:30 PM ET New Orleans +10 500
L.A. Lakers - Under 182.5 500

New York - 7:00 PM ET New York +6 500
Boston - Over 197 500

Denver - 9:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -5.5 500
Oklahoma City - Over 199.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Spurs' Ginobili's Game 1 status in doubt

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS





Tip-off: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -6, Total: 194

Although Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said Saturday that injured guard Manu Ginobili is still doubtful for Game 1 of the first-round playoff series, Ginobili’s teammates and the Grizzlies left no doubt they expect to see him on the floor when the teams tip off at noon.

Ginobili, a left-hander, sprained his right elbow in the Spurs’ regular-season finale Wednesday. Wearing a bulky elbow pad, he practiced Saturday but did not talk to the media after the workout.

“Knowing him, I think he’ll be fine, and I’m sure he’s going to play,” Spurs point guard Tony Parker said. “He’s very tough mentally. He proved that over the years, so hopefully he’ll play.”

Asked how tough it’s been to prepare for Game 1 knowing Ginobili may not play, Parker said, “I don’t even think like that. I don’t even think he’s not going to play. For me, it’s almost impossible that he’s not going to play.”

Ginobili was the Spurs’ second-leading scorer during the regular season, averaging 17.4 points. He had 35 points, eight assists and six rebounds in a 95-88 victory against Memphis on Feb. 27 at the AT&T Center. That game, however, marks the last time the Spurs beat the Grizzlies, as Memphis won both March meetings between the teams: a 16-point victory on March 1 and seven-point win on March 27. Memphis actually improved on both ends of the court after losing Rudy Gay, becoming a team that pounds the ball down low, where Zach Randolph is a handful in the paint.

The FoxSheets like the Grizzlies to keep this one close, regardless of Ginobili’s status, and offer up this three-star trend:


MEMPHIS is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 102.0, OPPONENT 101.0

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers begin defense of their NBA title


NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS



Tip-off: Sunday, 3:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -10, Total: 182.5

Lakers center Andrew Bynum participated in a full-court practice on Saturday, and even though Coach Phil Jackson described him only as "OK," that didn't mean Bynum experienced any setbacks.

"I was a little bit concerned when we did some outright running," Jackson said of Bynum, who didn't speak with reporters after practice. "But he was all right."

The Lakers have an overwhelming size advantage over the Hornets with two 7-footers in Bynum and Pau Gasol, and versatile 6-foot-10 forward Lamar Odom against a lineup that includes a hard-working Carl Landry and an undersized Emeka Okafor but will be missing David West.

There factors that could weaken the Lakers' intensity, however: They've gone 4-3 in Sunday afternoon games this season and they swept the regular-season series against New Orleans in four games. Hornets guard Chris Paul has proven in the past that he can carry this team through a playoff series, and New Orleans does a solid job on the defensive end, ranking seventh in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The Hornets also should benefit greatly from the extra rest between postseason games: They were 6-12 in back-to-back games this year.

The FoxSheets like the Hornets to cover the double-digit Game 1 spread, and offer up this three-star trend:

Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. (43-14 over the last 5 seasons, 75.4%, +27.6 units.)

[StarDust Bum]

Bulls a big Game 2 favorite


INDIANA PACERS

at CHICAGO BULLS


Tip-off: Monday, 9:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -12, Total: 191

Indiana gave the Bulls all they could handle in Saturday’s Game 1, but did the Pacers already give them their best shot?

Indiana is a subpar offensive team, yet managed to hang 99 on the NBA’s best defensive team on Saturday. Chicago allowed 99 points at home just seven times in 41 regular season home games.

Indiana shot 46.4% from the field and, more impressively, hit 10 of 18 threes. Tyler Hansbrough was a machine from 12 to 18 feet, hitting 10 of 19 from the field for 22 points. Danny Granger scored 10 of 20, including 4 of 8 threes, for 24 points despite Luol Deng contesting just about every shot. Granger shot 36.7% from the field against Chicago during the regular season. Point guard Darren Collison scored 17 on 7 of 15 shooting and hit both his three-point attempts. He shot 34.5% in four games against the Bulls during the regular season. It will be tough for all three players to match that offensive output in Game 2.

On the other side, the Bulls survived an awful performance by Carlos Boozer, who got into early foul trouble and was atrocious on both ends of the floor. Aside from allowing a series of open jumpers to Hansbrough, he shot 4-of-11 from the field. Derrick Rose got his points going toward the basket (39 points while shooting 10-for-14 on two-pointers and hitting 19 of 21 from the line) but missed all nine of his three-point attempts.

During the regular season, the Bulls beat Indiana by 19 and 21 in their two meetings in Chicago. There might have been some playoff opener jitters on Saturday, but they should be gone now. When Saturday’s game was on the line, with the Pacers leading by 10 with less than four minutes to go, Chicago simply dominated, finishing on a 16-1 run.

That late-game run was a result of superior talent and Indiana’s luck evening out. That will carry over into Game 2. My pick is Chicago to win and cover the big spread.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend working in the Bulls’ favor:

Play On - Any team (CHICAGO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. (29-5 since 1996, 85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)

[StarDust Bum]

Sixers hope to steal Game 2 in Miami


PHILADELPHIA 76ers

at MIAMI HEAT


Tip-off: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -9.5, Total: 189.5


Miami’s star guard Dwyane Wade did not practice yesterday because of symptoms of a migraine, a problem that has plagued him for years and kept him out of a game earlier this season. His status for Game 2 against the 76ers on Monday night is unclear. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said on Sunday that it's "too soon" to know if the 2006 NBA finals MVP will be available for Game 2.

Wade told the team that he felt a headache coming on Saturday afternoon before Miami's 97-89 victory, playing 35 minutes without any obvious discomfort. Wade scored 17 points in that game, five of them in the final 1:34 as the Heat held off a huge comeback attempt by the 76ers.

Philadelphia has held the Heat under 50 percent shooting all four times they've played this season, yet they’ve lost all four those games. One of the reasons for that is the fact that Miami holds a 127-61 lead in free throws taken in its series with Philadelphia this season, including a 39-15 edge in the Heat’s Game 1 win. Fouls — for and against — have been a season-long issue for the Sixers. They were 26th in the 30-team NBA in free throws taken this season, while Miami ranked third in that department. And while the 76ers had three players get called for fouls more than 200 times during the regular season, Wade was Miami's leader with 197.

If Wade cannot go on Monday, the Sixers obviously catch a huge break. And if Wade does play, he may have to wear goggles again to protect his eyes from bright lights — one major migraine trigger. Wade wore goggles with an orange tint when Miami faced the New York Knicks on Jan. 27, around the time of his last known fight with migraines. He made 13 straight shots from the field during one stretch of that game, finishing with 34 points.

The FoxSheets correctly picked the 76ers to cover Saturday’s spread, and they offer up this three-star trend in favor of Philadelphia keeping it close again in Game 2:


Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (83-41 over the last 5 seasons, 66.9%, +37.9 units. Rating = 3*)

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: LeBron James, Heat battle 76ers in Game 2

It's been a while since the Miami Heat opened a playoff series with a victory, almost five years for those scoring at home. Saturday's Game 1 battle with the Philadelphia 76ers almost followed suit.

Miami overcame an early 14-point deficit and withstood the Sixers' late charge to take a 1-0 lead in the series with a 97-89 win. The Heat now look to grab a two-nil edge in the best-of-7 series when they host Philadelphia for Game 2 on Monday. TNT will provide the telecast from AmericanAirlines Arena beginning at 4:00 p.m. (PT).

Oddsmakers have set Monday's spread at 9½ in favor of the Heat with 189 for the total.

The last time Miami started a postseason series with a win was May 2006 in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Pistons. The Heat went on to win that series and the ensuing NBA Finals versus the Mavericks.

Miami was 0-3 in Game 1's since then, having been knocked out in the opening rounds of the 2007, 2009 and 2010 NBA Playoffs.

Philadelphia started hot Saturday while Miami came out cold. The 76ers jumped out to a 20-8 lead midway through the first quarter and had no trouble finding the net while building a 31-19 advantage during the initial 12 minutes.

Meanwhile, the Big 3 for the Heat – LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh – struggled to score. The trio was just 2-of-9 from the field to start the game before things started to click. A 16-2 Miami run during the second quarter erased Philly's early edge.

Thaddeus Young's layup with a little more than two minutes left in the game brought the Sixers to within one at 88-87, but that's as close as Miami Thrice allowed the 10½-point underdogs to get.

Bosh led all scorers with 25 points while adding 12 rebounds. James also recorded a double-double with 21 points and 14 boards. Young paced Philadelphia with 20 points in 28 minutes off the bench.

Miami took the glass battle with a 52-39 advantage in rebounding, but the real edge for the Heat came at the free throw line where they outscored the Sixers 31-12. James, held to just four field goals in 14 attempts, converted 13-of-14 charity tosses.

Twelve of the Heat's 35 points in the second quarter came via free throws. Philadelphia got to the line just four times in the second, hitting all four shots.

Saturday's defeat left the 76ers 0-4 straight up against Miami after the Heat won all three regular season encounters. Philly has split at the window, 2-2 against the spread, with the Game 1 'under' (190) also leaving the totals 2-2 in the four matchups.

Mike Miller is questionable for Miami on Monday after reinjuring his thumb in just three minutes of court time Saturday. Philadelphia is not reporting any noteworthy injuries for Game 2.

The series will take a two-day break before resuming at Philadelphia's Wells Fargo Center on Thursday. TNT will also carry that broadcast with the tip a little past 5:00 p.m. (PT