Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[Udog]

Sunday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt

Earlier in the week I touched on what to expect from the Saturday card opening up this year's NFL Playoffs, and hopefully those two games in the AFC play out as expected. Sunday's action is all about the NFC though, and in general, I do believe it's a harder card to break down overall.

The New Orleans Saints are laying over a TD against Minnesota in a rematch of the “Minneapolis Miracle” from a couple of years ago. And then after that, you've got a Seattle team that's outperformed their stat lines all year long, have got just a +7 point differential on the year – every other playoff team except for Houston (-7) is at least +31 in that category (Philadelphia) – as a small road favorite against the Eagles who didn't exactly light the world on fire either.

Home dogs in the playoffs should always at least get some consideration, and in this case, Seattle does fit the profile of a team that deserves to be faded in their current role. But that also means you've got to back Philly, a team that's been ravaged by injuries all year long. It really is a tough card through and through, however, after stepping back for a few days and really thinking about this board, one specific solution into how to wager on these two games did seem to always get circled back around too.

Minnesota at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET)
Seattle at Philadelphia (4:40 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: 6-point Teaser: New Orleans -1.5 to Philadelphia +7.5

The fact that there are quite a lot of bettors out there in the market that have already seemingly given this game as a win to New Orleans is a little concerning. The Kirk Cousins futility in big games continually gets brought up as reasoning, and given that the weekend's action is likely going to have the Saints tied up in a lot of teasers and/or ML parlays, oddsmakers would love to see Cousins shed that 'choker' label and win this game outright. That is definitely a bit of concern in making this play, but you can count me among the masses who does believe that New Orleans will win this game outright.

The Saints at home are borderline unstoppable, at least on offense, and I'm not sure the Vikings have what it takes to put up the likely 30+ they'll need to threaten the Saints. New Orleans offense finished the year by putting up 34+ in each of their last four games, and 30 or more in eight of their last 10. Yes, their defense might have some cracks, but those types of cracks usually don't start showing up for division winners until later rounds of the playoffs. At home, with one of the best home field advantages in the league, the Saints should find a way to come out victorious. The point spread of -8 does seem a tad inflated and it's why I'm not interested in screwing around with a game that could easily land a point or two on either side of that spread.

Landing on the Eagles as the second leg of this teaser, as those of you who have read my NFL previews regarding Eagles games this year know I'm not the biggest believer in this team and especially their QB. But Wentz did step up when he needed to in the final month of the season, although let's pump the breaks on talks of him regaining his potential MVP form of 2017; Wentz absolutely needed to play hero against the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys of all teams in that final stretch.

But teasing the Eagles up is much more about fading a Seattle team who is still overvalued despite a recent decline back to Earth. The Seahawks lost their final two games, and three of their final four to slip into this #5 seed and will probably end up getting burned in the playoffs because of it. The only reason Seattle comes into this game laying chalk is based on record discrepancy, as a 7-1 SU record on the road probably doesn't hurt as well.

Yes, it's been a long time since the Eagles faced a quality foe, as their last game against a currently playoff team was actually hosting Seattle in late November, a game that finished 17-9 in Seattle's favor. That lack of competition (and overall healthy talent) the Eagles have recently dealt with is what has me shying away from backing them on the outright point spread, or even outright to win the game in general, but teasing them up through those key numbers of +3 and +7 makes a heck of a lot more sense.

This game could end up coming down to a single score one way or the other – Seattle played in single-score games (8 points or less) 12 different times this year, and did fairly well in those games. That seems to be their level of comfort late in games, and it's the most likely outcome for this one as well.

Eventually, the winner of this game probably gets their ass handed to them next week against the 49ers or Packers, but for this week, I'll take as many points as I can with the underdog and hope it's a close game throughout.

[Udog]

Saturday's AFC Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Buffalo at Houston (-2.5, 44), 4:35 pm ET, ESPN

The Texans just won their fourth AFC South title under Bill O’Brien, but he was being heavily criticized as recently as last month before his team closed out with wins in four of five before tanking their meaningless Week 17 contest against Tennessee. If Houston fails to hold serve here, it would fall to 1-4 in playoff games under O’Brien, having advanced past “Wild Card” Weekend only once. The Texans handled a Raiders team forced to start current XFL first-rounder Connor Cook at QB in 2016 before suffering a 34-16 loss at the Patriots.

Houston (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) lost to division rival Indianapolis 21-7 last year and fell 30-0 against the Chiefs back in ’15. To say there’s pressure on O’Brien to win this game is an understatement.

The same can be said about Deshaun Watson, once dubbed Michael Jordan by Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, his college coach. He’s a decided improvement on Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, the other Texans quarterbacks who have started under O’Brien. He’s better than Matt Schaub and T.J. Yates, the other two quarterbacks who won playoff games under Gary Kubiak and have therefore done something Watson has yet to. The third-year quarterback is just 0-1 but accounted for a single touchdown in a duel against Andrew Luck, throwing an interception and completing just 29 of 49 passes in an awful home loss where Houston failed to score until the fourth quarter of a game it trailed 21-0 at the break.

O’Brien and Watson are tied together in the hot seat. They’re in a situation where disappointing the home base again as they managed to last year could lead to early boos and ultimately mitigate the edge the Texans are supposed to have in welcoming the Bills into town. While O’Brien, also the team’s general manager, has improved the talent level, he’s ramped up expectations. Conservative play-calling and questionable in-game decisions have tried fans’ patience. Watson remains in their good graces, but he’s turned the ball over more this season and didn’t take a decided step forward. This is a big day for him.

Buffalo (10-6, 9-6-1) isn’t under the same type of burden. Reaching the playoffs for the second time in his three seasons makes Sean McDermott the most successful head coach since Wade Phillips was let go in ’99, and he’s indeed the winningest coach Buffalo has had of the 10 (head and interim) that have served at the helm for the team this century. Buffalo hasn’t won a playoff game since 1995. Josh Allen will be making his first playoff start and is hoping to become the first Bills quarterback to throw a touchdown in the postseason since Doug Flutie did in a game he started against Dan Marino on Jan. 2, 1999. Yes, it’s been that long.

The Bills fell at Jacksonville 10-3 a couple of years ago and have to fear a similar ending considering that points have been hard to come by in their toughest contests. Second-year QB Josh Allen will be making his first career postseason start but went just 1-4 against playoff teams this season. Buffalo averaged 14.2 points in those games. Although veteran Frank Gore is in the mix, the Bills don’t have a lot of veteran leadership on the offensive side of the ball to lean on as they hit the road. Leading rusher Devin Singletary is a rookie. Top receiver John Brown reached an NFC Championship game with Arizona in ’15 and hasn’t been back since.

Although the Texans’ defense has been vulnerable most of the season and has been taken advantage of in the red zone, the return of J.J Watt has the unit encouraged that it can perform their best when it matters most. Houston ranked 28th in total defense but gave up only four yards per rush as opposed to 5.34 without Watt, who obviously also makes the team’s pass rush all the more formidable in coming back from a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27.

Allen has props of 219.5 passing yards and 36.5 rushing yards available at Caesars. My expectation is that we’ll see him surpass the rushing prop because he’s certainly capable of putting up a big gainer or two on a scramble and often calls his own number on designed runs.

Buffalo would be favored at home given the spread in this contest, which is a nod to its superior defense. The Bills ranked third in yards allowed and gave up just 16.2 points per game. The Texans were 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite while Buffalo has yet to not cover a rod game this season (6-0-2 ATS), winning six of their eight outright. Watson threw for 26 touchdowns and 3,852 yards, while DeAndre Hopkins finished with 1,165 receiving yards and seven touchdown passes. A prop on Hopkins going over 72.5 receiving yards is also attractive, as are any TD props involving tight end Jordan Akins.

Houston has won four of the last five meetings against the Bills, falling in Buffalo in 2015 but owning home victories in ’12, ’14 and most recently, last season. The Texans won 20-13 on Oct. 14, 2018, pulling away on a Jonathan Joseph pick-six of embattled former backup Nathan Peterman, who was in for Allen in the final quarter. Buffalo managed just 12 first downs and 229 total yards. Watson threw for just 177 yards and was picked off twice, but did hook up with Hopkins for a score.

The individual matchup between Hopkins and star Bills corner Tre’Davious White, a first-team All-Pro, should be this game’s most important. Houston’s x-factor will likely be RB Carlos Hyde, who will be tasked with keeping Watson and the offense in manageable passing situations as the workhorse. He topped the 100-yard mark in the big win in Tennessee in Week 15 that ultimately helped the Texans claim the division and will be key in keeping the Buffalo defense from being overly aggressive.

Wrapping up the AFC South entering Week 17 and being locked into the No. 4 seed allowed the Texans to rest starters last season, so they’re well-rested. While Watt is certain to play, O’Brien wasn’t as sure he’d have the services of No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller, who really makes the Texans offense far more dynamic when he’s been able to play. ESPN Stats & Info reports Houston’s QBR with him in the lineup is 75.2 with him and 59.8 without him while the team’s third-down conversion rate is 51.9 percent when he’s out there and way down at 32.9 when he’s been unavailable. Fuller has dealt with hamstring issues and now a groin injury that has him listed as a game-time decision.

Corners Johnathan Joseph and Bradley Roby are questionable but should play. The Bills list DE Shaq Lawson, WR/KR Andre Roberts, RT Ty Nsekhe and CB Levi Wallace as questionable.

The ‘under’ went 12-4 in Bills games this season and favored the low side (9-7) in Houston games. For all “Total Talk” on Saturday’s AFC Wild Card games, read Chris David’s piece click here.


Tennessee at New England (-5, 44.5), 8:15 pm ET, CBS

A pair of Bill Belichick’s proteges may ultimately wind up teaming to end the Tom Brady era in New England with a thud few could’ve seen coming.

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who was one of Brady’s favorite teammates and won three Super Bowls with the Patriots over an eight-year span as a player before going into coaching upon his retirement a decade ago, will bring a team that has won five of their last seven games into Foxboro for a “Wild Card Weekend” date Belichick wanted no part of.

The six-time Super Bowl-winning coach just saw his Patriots fall to his most recent defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, who guided Miami to a stunning 27-24 upset at Gillette Stadium as a 17-point underdog. The talent disparity between both rosters dictated that the game should’ve never been close, yet the Dolphins led for most of Sunday afternoon before Tom Brady led a late rally that Ryan Fitzpatrick erased with one final flourish.

Instead of getting to rest up their ailing bodies while watching the Chiefs welcome in the scary-looking Titans, the Patriots fumbled away the AFC’s second seed and the bye that went along with it and will have to suit up against Tennessee to try and avoid elimination. A defense that had barely allowed 13 points per game suddenly looks vulnerable too since Miami receiver DeVante Parker dominated Stephon Gilmore, arguably the NFL’s top corner, to help seal New England’s demise.

The Titans not only have their passing game clicking behind Ryan Tannehill, who has teamed with rookie A.J. Brown to terrorize defenses over the past few weeks, they also can lean on NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry, who came back after taking a week off to rest a hamstring injury and ran for 211 yards and three scores in a dominant Week 17 win in Houston. The Texans didn’t play starters last week, but the Titans still answered the bell and come in looking sound on both sides of the ball in a must-win game. Tennessee ranks fourth in the NFL in 6.1 yards per play (6.1). Tannehill led the league averaging 9.59 yards per pass attempt and led the Titans to a 30.4 scoring average in his starts.

Beyond the fact that Vrabel played 17 playoff games under Belichick’s watch, giving him great insight to what he’s up against here, he’s also won the only meeting against his mentor as a head coach. The Patriots had won seven straight matchups with Tennessee prior to a 34-10 rout in Nashville on Nov. 11, 2018. Brady threw for 254 yards but failed to throw for a touchdown, while Henry ran for two scores and combined with backup Dion Lewis, a former Patriot, to run for 115 yards. Davis, who had a quiet injury-plagued ’19 regular season, caught seven passes for 125 yards. He’s healthy again.

Top receiver Julian Edelman finished with nine catches for 104 yards in that loss but has been limited to just 10 receptions over the past three weeks and has appeared hampered by a sore knee. There are also physical limitations to worry about as far as Brady is concerned. Although he’s ignored questions about what looks to be pretty obvious elbow discomfort, Brady has been noticeably flapping his arm and jogging in place to stay loose on the sideline.

Midseason acquisition Mohamed Sanu hasn’t had the impact the team expected and rookies N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers are about to learn that playoff football ramps up the intensity to another level. New England scored over 30 points only once over its last nine games, though it did average 27.3 over its past three games.

Brady threw for 4,057 yards in his 20th season but threw for just one 300-yard game since mid-October. He threw for one or fewer touchdowns in half his games. Brady’s completion percentage (60.8%) was its lowest since ’13 and his passer rating ranked 27th in the regular season (88.0), its lowest since he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the ‘08 opener. I’d back the ‘under’ on a passing yards (257.5) prop featuring the legend.

Despite the fact most bettors are likely to tie their fortunes to Brady’s right arm for at least one last time in a home playoff game that might his last as a Patriot, oddsmakers didn’t even set the opening line at six or more points in the matchup against the No. 6 seed. The Westgate Superbook installed the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite, but that figure was bet down to 4.5 points before climbing back up.

Tannehill is 0-6 in his career at Gillette Stadium, playing victim in New England’s dominance over the Dolphins, so it’s ironic that a Miami win made Foxborough the setting for his first career playoff start instead of Kansas City. While Patrick Mahomes is still feeling his way out through this playoff thing, the 42-year-old Brady will be making his 41st postseason start. Opposing Vrabel in his first playoff game as head coach is Belichick, who is 31-11 in his career (22-19-1 ATS).

Tennessee topped 400 yards six times this season for the first time since 1991. They finished with 5,805 yards of net offense, fourth-highest in team history. Most of New England’s injury-related question marks entering this game lie on the defensive end with CB Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, safety Terrance Brooks and linebackers Jamie Collins and Ja’Whuan Bentley all listed as ‘questionable.’ Edelman will also don that tag but should play. The Titans list WR Adam Humphries as out but will have tackle Adoree Jackson and tackle Jack Conklin in the mix. Backup WRs Kalif Raymond and Cody Hollister, as is safety Dane Cruikshank due to illness.

Road teams are 8-0 against the spread over the past two seasons on “Wild Card Weekend,” winning outright five times. Be aware that the forecast calls for a wet, windy night. Temperatures should reside in the 40s and scattered showers are expected throughout.

[Udog]

NFL Wild Card Weekend betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Dalvin Cook took a breather in Week 17 to rest his shoulder, but he'll be good to go for Minnesota on Sunday at New Orleans. The Vikings opened +8, and sharp play moved the number to +7.5.

NFL Wild Card Weekend has arrived, and with it a little primer on the four games – two Saturday, two Sunday. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Injury Impact

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The biggest news is that running back Dalvin Cook (shoulder), who sat out last week probably as more a precaution than anything, will play Sunday at New Orleans. “Cook is worth a half-point,” Osterman said. “He was one of the top backs in the league this year when he was healthy.” The Vikings opened +8 and moved to +7.5 Tuesday.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Wideout Will Fuller (groin) is questionable Saturday against Buffalo, but Osterman said if he sits, it would probably only be reflected in the juice. “He is a big part of the Texans’ offense. It wouldn’t affect the spread too much, most likely a move from Texans -2.5 (-120) to -2.5 (-110).”

Star defensive end J.J. Watt is returning from a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27. “I would say Watt has a similar effect to Fuller at this point. If he goes out there and plays well, then it could be more of an adjustment if the Texans move on.”

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Put on your Macaulay Culkin shocked face: Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable for the umpteenth week in a row. Osterman said that had no impact, as The SuperBook fully expected him to play Saturday night at home against Tennessee. The Patriots are -5.5.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Tight end Zach Ertz (ribs/back) sat out last week against the Giants and is questionable Sunday at home against Seattle. However, Ertz’s status was already factored into the number by The SuperBook’s oddsmaking team, as was wideout Nelson Agholor (knee) being ruled out for the fifth time in six weeks. The Eagles are 1.5-point underdogs.


Weather Watch

TENNESSEE AT NEW ENGLAND: There’s a 70 percent chance of rain Saturday in Foxborough, Mass., along with winds approaching 20 mph and temperatures in the mid- to high-30s. However: “No effect on the total in this game. It’s actually gone up.” Indeed, The SuperBook opened the total at 41.5 and reached 44.5 Thursday.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: No precipitation is expected, but it could be a little windy, approaching 20 mph. “The total has come down a half-point” from the opener. After opening at 45.5 and ticking up to 46, it’s now at 45.
Pros vs. Joes

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: “A lot of public money on the Saints, and we’ve seen some sharp bets come in on the Vikings. That’s why the line has come down from 8 to 7.5.”

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: “The Seahawks are the most-bet team so far of all four games. Public money on Seahawks spread and moneyline. Sharps on Eagles a little bit so far.” Seattle is laying 1.5 points.
Reverse Line Moves

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: Picking up on the Pros vs. Joes action, the public cash on the Saints outweighs the sharp play on the Vikings, but the number tightened from New Orleans -8 to -7.5.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Same situation. This line quickly flipped Sunday night from Eagles -1 to Seahawks -1 and stretched to Seattle -2.5 Monday morning. But later Monday, it tightened to Seahawks -1.5 after sharp play on Philly +1.5, even though the public cash on Seattle is greater.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, JANUARY 4
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BUF at HOU 04:35 PM
BUF +2.5
O 43.5

TEN at NE 08:15 PM
TEN +4.5
U 45.0

[Udog]

WC - Vikings at Saints
Kevin Rogers

The NFC Wild Card round kicks off at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans as the Saints (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) finished with the exact same record as last season when they held home-field advantage in the playoffs. However, since San Francisco and Green Bay owned tiebreakers with identical 13-3 marks, New Orleans was relegated to the Wild Card round for the fifth time since 2010.

The Saints cruised to their third consecutive NFC South title as their three division foes all finished below the .500 mark. New Orleans actually concluded the 2019 season with a better road record (7-1) than at home (6-2), as five playoff teams posted a 7-1 away mark (Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, and Seahawks the others). The road ledger doesn’t mean much here as the Saints have compiled a 21-6 SU and 13-14 ATS mark in the last three seasons at the Superdome.

After losing the NFC Championship rematch with the Rams in Week 2 and quarterback Drew Brees to a thumb injury, the Saints banded together behind backup Teddy Bridgewater to win five consecutive games. During that unexpected hot stretch, New Orleans won at Seattle and knocked off Dallas in the underdog role, while four of the five wins came as a ‘dog. Brees returned in Week 8 against Arizona and continued the winning streak with a blowout of the Cardinals, 31-9 as 12 ½-point favorites.

New Orleans was tripped up by Atlanta following the bye week as 14-point home favorites, 26-9, but the Saints won the next three games to wrap up the NFC South championship on Thanksgiving night. The Saints fell short in the most exciting game of the season against the top-seeded 49ers in Week 14 in a 48-46 setback in spite of 349 yards and five touchdown passes from Brees. New Orleans closed out the regular season with three straight wins by double-digits each, but the scenarios didn’t work out for the Saints to grab a first-round bye.

The Vikings (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) were on the doorstep of the Super Bowl two seasons ago after shocking the Saints in the NFC divisional round (more on that in a moment), but were flattened by the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles in the conference title game. Minnesota fell flat in 2018 with a 8-7-1 record and missed the postseason, but the Vikings rebounded to make the playoffs for the third time in the last five seasons.

Following a 2-2 start, the Vikings won four consecutive games, although only one of those victories came against a playoff squad (Philadelphia in Week 6). Minnesota was in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card berth, but couldn’t catch Green Bay for the top spot in the NFC North as the Vikings lost their final two games of the season to settle for an opening weekend contest in the playoffs.

The Vikings split eight games away from U.S. Bank Stadium this season, as Minnesota eclipsed the 28-point mark in five of those contests. In the role of a road underdog, Mike Zimmer’s squad won at Dallas, but lost to a pair of playoff teams on the road in setbacks to Green Bay and Seattle, while also falling on the highway at Kansas City as a favorite. Dating back to last season, the Vikings have lost seven of eight games to playoff clubs, with the lone victory coming at Philadelphia in 2018.

In one of the most famous playoff finishes in recent memory, the Vikings stunned the Saints, 29-24 in the 2017 divisional round. The “Minneapolis Miracle” began as a Vikings’ blowout with them cruising past New Orleans to a 17-0 halftime lead before Brees rallied the Saints to a 24-23 advantage in the final minute. Case Keenum kept Minnesota’s season alive by hooking up with wide receiver Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard touchdown strike as time expired to give the Vikings the dramatic triumph. However, the Vikings failed to cash as 5 ½-point favorites as Keenum kneeled on a pointless two-point conversion, which ultimately led to a rule change eliminating extra point tries on a walk-off touchdown.

New Orleans and Minnesota didn’t meet this season, but the Saints picked up a modicum of revenge in 2018 with a 30-20 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Saints fell behind in the first half again, trailing 13-7 before New Orleans scored 23 unanswered points, which included three Wil Lutz field goals, an Alvin Kamara touchdown run and an interception return for a touchdown. Brees only threw for 120 yards, compared to the 359 yards racked up Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins, but the former Michigan State standout owns a 2-10 record with the Vikings against teams with winning records.

The Saints have failed to cover in their last three home playoff games since 2017, including in the Wild Card round two seasons ago against Carolina. New Orleans jumped out to a 21-6 advantage as 6 ½-point favorites, while leading 31-19 with 5:08 remaining. However, Panthers’ star running back Christian McCaffrey broke away on a 56-yard touchdown pass from Cam Newton to help Carolina grab the road cover in spite of a 31-26 defeat.

Last season, the Saints erased a 14-0 deficit to the Eagles by outscoring Philadelphia, 20-0 over the final three quarters for a 20-14 win in the divisional round as 8 ½-point favorites. The NFC Championship at the Superdome wasn’t so super for the Saints, who squandered a 13-0 lead in a 26-23 overtime setback to the Rams, which was capped off by the pass interference not called in the final two minutes, which would have given New Orleans a first down and run the clock down for the game-winning field goal.

The Vikings last won a Wild Card game in 2004 at Green Bay, while dropping Wild Card contests in 2008, 2012, and 2015. The only good news for Minnesota is at least one road underdog has escaped Wild Card weekend in the NFC in three of the past four seasons, including Philadelphia’s 16-15 triumph of Chicago last season.

[Udog]

WC - Seahawks at Eagles
Kevin Rogers

The final Wild Card contest of the weekend takes place at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia showcasing the lone home underdog in this round. The Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) owned the worst record of any of the 12 playoff teams, but by virtue of winning the NFC East crown, they are able to remain at home in the opening round.

Philadelphia didn’t look like it would head to the playoffs after getting shocked at Miami as 10 ½-point road favorites, 37-31 in Week 13. The Eagles slipped to 5-7, but finished December strong by winning their final four games, including a crucial 17-9 home triumph over the Cowboys in Week 16. Philadelphia moved into the driver’s seat of capturing the division title as the Eagles grabbed the crown in the season finale against the Giants in a 34-17 rout to clinch their third straight playoff berth under head coach Doug Pederson.

Quarterback Carson Wentz is making his playoff debut after injuries derailed the past two seasons for the second pick of the 2016 draft. Wentz is coming off a career-high 4,039 yards passing this season, which included not one wide receiver racking up more than 500 yards. Two tight ends posted above 500 yards receiving, including Zach Ertz, who put up 918 yards and six touchdowns as he looks to suit up after missing the Week 17 win at New York with a rib injury.

The Eagles are not only riding a four-game winning streak, but have covered each of their last three contests. Only two of Philadelphia’s nine victories came against playoff squads an each of those wins came on the road at Green Bay and Buffalo. In three opportunities as a home underdog, the Eagles scored a total of 36 points, while owning a 1-2 SU/ATS record with a win over Dallas and losses to New England and Seattle.

The Seahawks (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) squandered an excellent opportunity to take home the NFC West title for the first time since 2016, but couldn’t take care of its business at CenturyLink Field. Seattle headed into Week 16 tied with San Francisco at 11-3 atop the division with two home games remaining, but lost to Arizona in Week 16 as eight-point favorites, 27-13.

In spite of that unexpected defeat, Pete Carroll’s squad still had a chance to win the NFC West by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker against San Francisco, but the Seahawks didn’t pull off the season sweep of the 49ers. San Francisco jumped out to a 13-0 halftime lead, as Seattle rallied to creep within 26-21, while having an opportunity to win in the final minute. The Seahawks were within one yard of a division title, but were stuffed at the goal line on fourth down as Seattle has to travel cross-country for the playoff opener.

Quarterback Russell Wilson likely won’t win the league MVP due to the breakout season from Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, but the Seattle signal-caller racked up the second-most passing yards in his career (4,110), while throwing 31 touchdowns and a career-low five interceptions. The battered Seahawks’ backfield received some help from a familiar face as Marshawn Lynch came out of retirement to sign with Seattle and scored a one-yard touchdown in the loss to San Francisco.

Seattle excelled away from the Pacific Northwest this season by compiling a 7-1 record on the highway. The Seahawks ventured to the Eastern Time Zone five times and won all five games at Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Carolina. Granted, Seattle faced three backup quarterbacks (Mason Rudolph, Matt Schaub, and Kyle Allen), but the Seahawks topped the 28-point mark in three of those contests. Seattle handed San Francisco its first loss of the season in Week 10 as an underdog, while putting together a 2-1-1 ATS mark as a road favorite.

The Eagles have covered all five playoff games under Pederson the last two seasons, although Nick Foles was the quarterback and not Wentz. Philadelphia knocked off Atlanta and Minnesota as an underdog on its run to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title in 2017, while cashing in the ‘dog role against Chicago and New Orleans last season. The last time a home team was listed as an underdog in the Wild Card round came in 2015 when a trio of clubs lost as the Bengals (+2) fell to the Steelers, 18-16, the Texans (+3) were blanked by the Chiefs, 30-0, and the Vikings (+4 ½) dropped a 10-9 decision to the Seahawks.

The Seahawks have won the past five meetings with the Eagles dating back to 2011, capped off by a 17-9 triumph at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 12 as one-point favorites. Seattle put together its best defensive effort of the season as Philadelphia was limited to a field goal until scoring its lone touchdown with 20 seconds remaining trailing, 17-3. The Eagles shot themselves in the foot multiple times by turning the ball over five times, including a pair of interceptions thrown by Wentz. In three career starts against Seattle, Wentz is 0-3, while the Eagles have scored 9, 10, and 15 points in those matchups.

Seattle thrived on the road this season, but that hasn’t been the same story in the playoffs of late. The Seahawks have lost three consecutive away contests in the postseason, including a 24-22 setback at Dallas last January. Seattle owns a 2-4 SU/ATS record as a road favorite in the playoffs with Wilson at quarterback, as the last postseason victory away from CenturyLink Field came in the 2015 Wild Card round at Minnesota.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 5
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at NO 01:05 PM
NO -7.5
U 49.5

SEA at PHI 04:40 PM
SEA +1.0
U 45.0

[Udog]

[Udog]

AFC Divisional Notes

Tennessee at Baltimore

Saturday, Jan. 11 (CBS, 8:05 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Ravens Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card Results

Tennessee: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Baltimore: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U

Opening Odds

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Baltimore as a 10-point favorite while the total was sent out at 49. The number on the Ravens has dropped to -9 ½ and the ‘over/under’ has dropped to 48 at the Westgate while a couple other sportsbooks have gone down to 47 ½.

2019 Off the Bye

Baltimore has been one of the best teams when playing with rest under head coach John Harbaugh. Since he started in 2018, the Ravens have gone 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. This season, they blasted the Patriots 37-20 in Week 8 after their bye week. During Harbaugh’s tenure, Baltimore has only earned a playoff bye once when it was the No. 2 seed during the 2011 campaign. The Ravens defeated the Texans 20-13 but failed to cover as 7 ½-point favorites. Following that win, Baltimore would end up losing 23-20 at New England in the AFC Championship.

Head-to-Head

Prior to 2019, these teams met in each of the previous regular seasons with Tennessee capturing a 23-20 win at home in 2017 before Baltimore avenged that loss with a 21-0 victory at Nashville in 2018. The Ravens had Joe Flacco at quarterback in that road win while the Titans has Marcus Mariota under center.

Baltimore has won four straight (2-2 ATS) games against AFC South foes, which includes a 41-7 rout of Houston in Week 11 of this year’s season. Tennessee blasted Cleveland 43-13 in Week 1 as a 5 ½-point road underdog and that helped the team improve to 5-2 over their last seven encounters against teams from the AFC North.

Playoff Notes

Baltimore has gone 10-6 SU and 11-5 all-time in the playoffs under Harbaugh but only three of those games took place at home where the team went 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. This is the largest point-spread that Baltimore has been favored by in the playoffs under Harbaugh. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has only played in one playoff game and he’s 0-1 after the Ravens dropped a 23-17 decision to the Chargers as three-point home favorites in the Wild Card round.

Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel won his first career playoff game last Saturday as the Titans defeated the Patriots 20-13 as five-point road underdogs. Tennessee went 1-1 in the 2017 postseason, both games played on the road. The win over New England was also the first for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill.

Total Notes

Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ go 10-7, which included a 5-4 mark away from home. Since Tannehill took over as starter, the Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 9-2 and the team has scored 20 or more points in every game. Baltimore averaged 33.2 points per game on offense, which was ranked first in the league but the attack was more explosive (36.5 PPG) on the road than at home (29.9 PPG). The ‘over/under’ produced 4-4 results at M&T Bank Stadium and that was helped with strong defensive scoring averages (18.6 PPG).

Dating back to 2000, the Ravens have seen the ‘under’ cash in six straight home playoff games and only two opponents were able to score more than 20 points. Including last Saturday’s result at Foxboro, Tennessee has watched the ‘under’ cash in six of their last seven playoff games.

Going back to 2014, the Ravens have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2-1 against AFC South opponents and that includes a 4-0-1 mark at home. The defense only allowed 14.6 PPG. Meanwhile, the Titans have watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 versus AFC North teams during the same span.


Houston at Kansas City

Sunday, Jan. 12 (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Texans Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Chiefs Home Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Houston: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Kansas City: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 5-1 O/U

Opening Odds

The SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a 7 ½-point home favorite and that number was quickly pushed up to Chiefs -9. The total opened 50 and has been moved to 49 at the Las Vegas outfit.

Off the Bye

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid owns an eye-opening 18-3 overall record in his career when his teams are playing with rest in the regular season. While most of the success came during his tenure with Philadelphia (13-1), he does own a 5-2 record with the Chiefs. This season, Kansas City diced up Oakland 40-9 in Week 13 after its ‘bye’ week. When playing with rest in the playoffs, Reid has gone 4-1 in the Divisional Playoff round.

Head-to-Head

The two teams have met twice in the last three regular seasons and the road team has won both matchups. Kansas City captured a 42-34 win at NRG stadium in 2017 while Houston earned a 31-24 at Arrowhead this year in Week 6.

Houston has gone 5-2 in its last seven games against the AFC West and it’s been perfect on the road versus this division, going 3-0 both SU and ATS as underdogs.

Kansas City defeated Jacksonville 40-26 in Week 1 but it closed the season with three consecutive losses to AFC South clubs, two of the setbacks coming at home.

Playoff Notes

Reid owns a 12-14 career record in the playoffs and he hasn’t had much success with Kansas City, going 2-5. At Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs have gone 1-3 under Reid in the playoffs and the lone win came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round against Indianapolis (31-13). Prior to the win over the Colts last season, Kansas City had dropped six straight at home in the playoffs with the last win coming in 1994.

Houston’s 22-19 overtime victory against Buffalo in last week’s Wild Card matchup pushed the club to 4-5 all-time in the postseason. Texans head coach Bill O’Brien is 2-3 and that includes a 0-1 mark on the road. Houston is 0-3 in the Divisional Playoff round, losing by an average of 12.6 PPG.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Texans signal caller Deshaun Watson both own 1-1 records in the playoffs. The difference is that Kansas City has scored exactly 31 points in their games with him at QB while Watson has managed 7 and 22 points, the latter coming last Saturday at home. The Texans failed to score in the first-half of both those games and this will be the first road playoff start for the former Clemson standout.

Total Notes

The Texans own a 10-7 ‘under’ record this season and the low side went 5-3 away from home but the defense surrendered 31.6 PPG in three road games versus playoff teams. Kansas City saw the ‘over/under’ go 8-8 overall in the regular season, but it closed the season on a 5-1 ‘under’ run. The defense only allowed 11.5 PPG during this final stretch but that number could be misleading with five games against non-playoff squads. The ‘over’ went 5-3 at Arrowhead this stadium and that includes a 4-0 mark to the high side against postseason teams. The defense gave up 28.3 PPG in those games.

Houston has watched the ‘under’ go 5-4 in its only nine playoff games. Kansas City has watched the ‘under’ go 4-3 with Reid on the sidelines in the postseason. In his two coaching playoff wins with the Chiefs, they allowed a combined 13 points scored and the ‘under’ connected easily in both games.

[Udog]

NFC Divisional Notes

Minnesota at San Francisco

Saturday, Jan. 11 (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Vikings Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U
49ers Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Minnesota: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U
San Francisco: 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-2-1 O/U

Opening Odds

After the Vikings defeated the Saints 26-20 in their Wild Card matchup, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out San Francisco as a seven-point home favorite with a total of 45 ½. Early money came in on the Vikings and the currently line is 49ers -6 ½ while the ‘over/under’ has held in check.

2019 Off the Bye

San Francisco defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 after its ‘bye’ week and that snapped an eight-game winless streak (0-7-1) for the 49ers when playing with rest. It was also the first win for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan when playing with rest since he took over the team in 2017 after starting 0-2.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 1 of the 2018 regular season and Minnesota stopped San Francisco 24-16 as a six-point home favorite. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo tossed a career-high three interceptions in that loss while his counterpart Kirk Cousins passed for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the win for the Vikings.

Minnesota dropped a 37-30 loss to Seattle in Week 13 on Monday Night Football. Including that loss, the Vikings have lost three of their last four encounters against NFC West foes and they haven’t captured a road win against this division since 2004.

San Francisco blitzed Green Bay 37-8 as a three-point home favorite in Week 11. Prior to that win, the 49ers went 1-3 in the 2018 regular season when matched up against the NFC North but Garropolo missed two of those games due to injury.

Playoff Notes

Minnesota’s win over New Orleans on Sunday was the first road playoff victory for the club since 2005. The win pushed head coach Mike Zimmer’s record to 2-2 overall in the postseason. The last appearance for the Vikings in the Divisional Playoff round came in 2017 and it snuck past the Saints 29-24 with a late touchdown reception. Cousins owns a 1-1 career playoff record as a starter.

San Francisco hasn’t been in the playoffs since the 2013-14 season. The club won its first two games on the road but came up short to Seattle (17-23) in the NFC Championship game. This will be the first career playoff start for Garropolo.

This will be the first playoff game for Shanahan but he does have experience in the postseason as a coordinator, most recently with Atlanta in 2016. The Falcons averaged 36 PPG during that playoff run, but the offense took the blame in their Super Bowl LI loss (28-34) to the Patriots when they were held to just seven points in the second-half.

Total Notes

Prior to Sunday’s ‘under’ result versus New Orleans, Minnesota was on a 5-0 ‘over’ run in its last five away games. Since being held to 16 and 6 points to divisional foes in the Packers and Bears respectively in September, the Minnesota offense has averaged 30.8 PPG in its last seven as a visitor.

San Francisco started the season with a 5-1 ‘under’ run before closing on a 7-2-1 ‘over’ surge. The Niners played their first eight games of the season against non-playoff teams before losing to Seattle (24-27) in Week 10. Make a note that All-Pro tight end George Kittle was ‘out’ for San Francisco in that setback to the Seahawks.

At home, the ‘over’ went 5-3 for the 49ers behind the top-ranked scoring offense at home this season with 32.4 PPG. As mentioned above, they scored 31 when playing with rest but the ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in games played after the ‘bye’ for San Francisco under Shanahan.

Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 in its last five postseason games, which includes the Wild Card result this past weekend at New Orleans. The 49ers have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their last postseason appearance (2013-14).

Going back to 2003, the ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run in this head-to-head series.


Seattle at Green Bay

Sunday, Jan. 12 (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Seahawks Road Record:
7-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS, 4-4-1 O/U
Packers Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Seattle: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U
Green Bay: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U

Opening Odds

The Superbook opened Green as a 3 ½-point favorite and the Packers were pushed up quickly to -4. The total dropped from 47 to 46.

Off the Bye

The Packers have lost their last three regular season games after their ‘bye’ week. Two of those defeats came on the road, which includes a humbling 37-8 loss at San Francisco this season in Week 12 on Sunday Night Football.

Head-to-Head

This series has been one-sided to the home team with the host winning the last eight encounters between the pair. The most recent meeting took place in the 2018 regular season when Seattle defeated Green Bay 27-24 as a three-point home favorite. Prior to that game, the Packers had won three straight games against the Seahawks. The pair met in the 2014-15 playoffs and Seattle pulled off an improbable 28-22 comeback victory at home over Green Bay.

Including that outcome, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 all-time against Seattle and all four of the losses came at CenturyLink Field. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-3 in his career against Green Bay but he’s 0-3 in his career at Lambeau Field and those teams were held to 17, 10 and 9 points.

Seattle has won four straight against the NFC North while Green Bay is on a 0-4 skid versus teams from the NFC West.

Playoff Notes

Green Bay hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2016 when they won its first two games before falling to Atlanta 44-21 in the NFC Championship. This will be the playoff coaching debut for Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers owns a 9-7 career record in the playoffs as a starter and that includes a 3-2 mark at home.

Wilson improved to 9-5 in the playoffs in Sunday’s 17-9 Wild Card win at Philadelphia. That victory snapped a three-game road losing streak in the playoffs for the Seahawks. Since he took over as a starter in 2012, Wilson is 2-4 away from home in the postseason and that doesn’t include his 1-1 record in the Super Bowl.

Total Notes

Seattle has tallied the most road wins (8-1) in the NFL this season and the defense has traveled well (19.7 PPG). That effort has helped the ‘under’ go 5-4.

Green Bay’s total results had a tail of two seasons as the ‘over’ started 5-3 through the first eight games but the ‘under’ produced a 7-1 mark down the stretch. The offense only averaged 20.1 PPG during this span while the defense held opponents to 18.8 PPG. The ‘under’ went 5-3 at Lambeau Field and that includes a 3-0 run entering the playoffs.

The Packers have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their last six playoff games, five of those contests taking place on the road. In the lone home game, the Packers put up 38 points during the 2016 postseason.

Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 4-3 in its last seven road playoff games with Wilson at QB. The defense has looked sharp in three wins over this span, allowing 10.6 PPG. However, the unit has surrendered 30.3 PPG in four losses.

The Texans have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their last three road games versus the AFC West and the defense has only allowed 20.3 PPG. The Chiefs saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 against AFC South teams this season.

Sticking with the ‘bye’ factor above, Kansas City has outscored opponents 74-12 in its last two games at home when playing with rest.

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - DP Angles
Matt Blunt

Week of January 6th

Wildcard Weekend is in the books, and with both No. 6 seeds advancing, knocking off two future Hall-of-Fame QB's at home in the process, it makes for a changing of the guard the rest of the way. There are only two starting QB's left of the eight remaining teams that have played in a Super Bowl before, and after next week that number will be down to one with the Seahawks and Packers meeting in Green Bay.

But with just three weeks left in the season before a new champion is crowned, I thought it best to take a look back at a couple of different statistical categories that may not have a direct correlation to playoff success from the Divisional Round on, but have performed fairly well over the years.

So do what you will with this information going forward, but it won't be hard to see if it continues to follow suit. Although maybe the changing of the guard we've seen with the old guard at QB going down could apply to how bettors approach the rest of the NFL playoffs as well.

Who's Hot

During the past three years, from the Divisional Round on, backing the team that finished the regular season with a Turnover Margin per game that was at least 0.2 better than their opponent has gone 15-2 ATS

Turnovers are something that are hard to handicap, but if a team's been on the positive side of them all year long, that tends to hold true in the playoffs. Using a margin of +0.2 or better helps eliminate some potential rounding errors if you were to look at say, giveaways and takeaways per game, so that's why I went with that.

A 15-2 ATS record does mean it's not applied to four different games over the past years (4 Div games +2 Conf +1 Super Bowl). Last year's AFC Championship and Super Bowl were two of those four occurrences with the Chiefs and Patriots being tied in turnover margin per game at +0.6, and with the Rams checking in at +0.7, the difference of 0.1 between them and New England doesn't fit.

The other omissions here were the “Minneapolis Miracle” game between the Saints and Vikings after the 2017 season (New Orleans was 0.1 better then Minnesota that year and the Saints did end up covering that game by the hook), and the Super Bowl between New England and Atlanta. That Super Bowl fell into the same scenario as the “Minneapolis Miracle” with New England being 0.1 better in turnover margin per game and ultimately covering the spread.

What that does ultimately mean as well, is that if you just want to take the team that finished the regular season with the better turnover margin per game, you'd still be sitting with a 17-3 ATS record in this span, with the Chiefs-Patriots game last year being the only one that doesn't apply. Turnovers might be somewhat random, but a run like this does put a bit of a crack in that argument.

It hasn't always worked as well during Wildcard Weekend, as evidenced by the two best teams in turnover margin per game this season being eliminated (New England and New Orleans), while Buffalo was the other Wildcard team to fall while facing a team with a worst number in this stat. But, with the cream rising to the top from the Divisional Round and beyond, this regular season turnover margin stat is something to consider.

And looking forward for the Divisional games next weekend, we've got Minnesota (+0.8) vs San Francisco (+0.2), Tennessee (+0.4) vs Baltimore (+0.6), Houston (0.0) vs Kansas City (+0.5), and Seattle (+0.8) vs Green Bay (+0.8).

Those would suggest that backing Minnesota, Baltimore, and Kansas City next week should result in a profitable outcome should this trend hold, with the Seahawks/Packers game not applicable given their dead heat. Whether or not that's how it plays out remains to be seen, but if you are looking for a bit more support in supporting one of those sides you may already like, don't shy away from this data.


Who's Not

Expecting teams with a regular season point differential that wasn't +100 or better to make the Super Bowl; Only seven of 32 Super Bowl teams with a point differential of +99 or less since the 2003-04 season have made the big game

This trend was a little hard to formulate the correct statement for, because in other words, you really want to expect teams that finished the year with a point differential of +100 or better to be involved in the Super Bowl. In fact, since that 2003-04 season (the New England/Carolina Super Bowl), there has been at least one team involved in Super Bowl that did finish the year with a +100 or better point differential.

Taking it a bit further, you generally want to back teams that finished 1st or 2nd in their conference in point differential to go all the way, as the last time we had a Super Bowl game that didn't involve the at least one of the Top 2 teams from their conference in this category was back in 2008-09 season when Pittsburgh (who was 3rd in the AFC in point differential) beat Arizona (who was dead last among NFC playoff teams that year). That's 10 straight Super Bowls of having at least one of the top two teams in this category (among playoff teams) go all the way.

What that means for this year, is that Baltimore (+249 for 1st in AFC) and San Francisco (+169 for 1st in NFC) are on the fast track to be Super Bowl bound. As the respective #1 seeds in both conferences, that's not exactly a ground breaking statement, but before last year's game when the Patriots and Rams came in ranked 2nd in point differential in their respective conferences, the last time we didn't have at least one top ranked team in their conference in point differential in the Super Bowl, was oddly enough, the Baltimore/San Francisco Super Bowl after the 2012 season. In fact, at least one of the top teams in their respective conferences has made the Super Bowl in 12 of those 16 Super Bowls.

More importantly, with 16 different combinations left for this year's Super Bowl, what this trend does suggest is that we will NOT see a Super Bowl between Green Bay (+63) and Houston (-7), Green Bay (+63) and Tennessee (+71), Seattle (+7) and Houston (-7) or Seattle and Tennessee (+71).

Sure, one of these teams could go the distance, and I actually believe one will, but they'll likely be up against a powerhouse from this year, as the rest of teams, and historically at least one Super Bowl team has had a point differential of +100 or better.

Oh and for those that are curious, the sub-100 point differential team I do believe will go the distance this year are the Green Bay Packers. And the team that I hope they'll be up against is the team in the AFC I've liked since the summer; the Kansas City Chiefs (+143 point differential).

State Farm Super Bowl here we come.

[Udog]

301MINNESOTA -302 SAN FRANCISCO
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (10 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

303TENNESSEE -304 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.

305HOUSTON -306 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 18-8 ATS (9.2 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

307SEATTLE -308 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 39-14 ATS (23.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.




NFL
Long Sheet

Divisional Round

Saturday, January 11

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MINNESOTA (11 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 3) - 1/11/2020, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (10 - 7) at BALTIMORE (14 - 2) - 1/11/2020, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 124-158 ATS (-49.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 12

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HOUSTON (11 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (12 - 4) - 1/12/2020, 2:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (12 - 5) at GREEN BAY (13 - 3) - 1/12/2020, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 116-84 ATS (+23.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 199-144 ATS (+40.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 76-48 ATS (+23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Divisional Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 11

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 13 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Minnesota is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 13 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Baltimore's last 12 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Tennessee is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 11 games
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tennessee's last 12 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore


Sunday, January 12

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay


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[Udog]

NFL playoffs divisional round opening odds and early action: Chiefs draw quick money vs Texans
Patrick Everson

A wild Wild Card Weekend – featuring two overtime games and the dethroning of the defending Super Bowl champion – gives way to the NFL’s divisional playoff round. We check in on the opening odds and early action for all four games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

No. 4 seed Houston barely survived its Saturday wild-card game to advance to this AFC showdown. The Texans (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) laid a goose egg for nearly three quarters, falling behind No. 5 Buffalo 16-0, before rallying to tie it at 19 and force overtime. Bill O’Brien’s troops then squeaked out a 22-19 win and cover as 2.5-point home favorites Saturday.

Kansas City won its regular-season finale and grabbed the No. 2 seed and a bye when New England lost to Miami in Week 17. The Chiefs (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) topped the Los Angeles Chargers 31-21 for a sixth consecutive SU win, though they pushed as 10-point favorites, halting a five-game spread-covering run.

This game, with a 3:05 p.m. ET start Sunday, has seen the most early movement.

“We opened the Chiefs -7.5 and have been bet up,” Murray said of a line that posted late Saturday evening and reached -9.5 by Sunday morning. “The Chiefs will close any parlays that are left from the first two favorites (on Saturday). The books will need Houston pretty big on Sunday.”

Houston went on the road in Week 6 and beat Kansas City 31-24 as a 3.5-point pup.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Sixth-seeded Minnesota is the surprise guest at the NFC divisional-round party after an upset win in the wild-card round. The Vikings (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) went to New Orleans as 7.5-point underdogs Sunday and emerged with a 26-20 overtime victory, knocking out the Saints for the second time in three years.

Meanwhile, San Francisco rested up as the No. 1 seed, giving it a bye and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. The 49ers (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) capped the regular season with a big win over rival Seattle, 26-21 laying 3.5 points on the road.

“The Vikings will see a lot of support off that upset of New Orleans,” Murray said, noting the first move on this 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday game was tightening the Niners to -6.5. “The Saints really gave that game away. The 49ers will be in their share of teasers and parlays, but not as many as the two AFC favorites.”

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

Tennessee, the AFC’s sixth seed, also sent a little shockwave around the league by upending the reigning Super Bowl champ. The Titans (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) fended off No. 3 seed New England 20-13 as 4.5-point road pups Saturday.

Baltimore hasn’t lost a game since September, nabbing the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a bye week in the process. The Ravens (14-2 SU, 10-6 ATS) finished with a 28-10 victory over Pittsburgh as 2-point home ‘dogs, despite playing a host of backups in what was a meaningless Week 17 game for John Harbaugh’s squad.

“The Ravens will be in every moneyline parlay, every parlay and every teaser,” Murray said of anticipated action for this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday contest. “Baltimore has been on cruise control for the last couple of months, and there’s nobody left that they wouldn’t be a big favorite against.”

That said, the first move in this line was a tick down to Baltimore -9.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Seattle blew a shot at a postseason bye and a divisional home game by falling short to San Francisco in Week 17, but bounced back just fine on Wild Card Weekend. The fifth-seeded Seahawks (12-5 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) beat No. 4 Philadelphia 17-9 catching 1 point on the road Sunday.

Green Bay won its last five games to snare the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a playoff bye. The Packers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) edged Detroit 23-20 at Detroit on a final-seconds field goal, falling well short of cashing as hefty 13.5-point favorites in Week 17.

“The Packers were one of the big winners this weekend,” Murray said. “They would’ve been a small ‘dog to New Orleans and now host a Seattle team that caught a break of its own, with Carson Wentz going down in the wild-card game. This will be the most-divided game of the weekend.”

The line moved from Packers -3.5 to -4 early Sunday evening. This matchup is the last of the divisional round, with a 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff next Sunday.

[Udog]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Divisional Round odds: Go grab the total for this ground game
Jason Logan

The Titans have a very run-heavy offense which could soak up the play clock and keep the dangerous Baltimore offense off the the field in their Divisional Round matchup this weekend.

The NFL playoffs roll into the Divisional Round, where the betting markets reacts to the Wild Card results, forcing some interesting movement versus teams that earned a bye week in the opening round.

Getting the best of the number is vital in the postseason and with only four games on the board, bookmakers have plenty of time to fine tune the lines before kickoff. Covers’ senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the opening odds and early action, giving you his Bet Now/Bet Later sides and totals for this weekend’s divisional matchups.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+4) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS

There are plenty of people down on the Packers and the fact that Green Bay enjoyed a first-round bye after a 13-3 SU record built on the back on softer opposition. Books opened the Cheeseheads at the dead number of -4 hosting the Seahawks, giving themselves some breathing room to move off action.

While most books are sticking to Green Bay -4, the juice on the pointspread is trending towards a move to -3.5 at some online markets as of Monday morning. Seattle was able to escape Philadelphia with a 17-9 win over the Eagles in the Wild Card Round, thanks in part to knocking QB Carson Wentz out of the game with a concussion after only two series.

If you like the Seahawks to cover in Lambeau this Sunday, grab all the points you can with Seattle right now. The Packers were able to slow down the Vikings offense in Week 16, but this defense hasn’t faced many challenges down the stretch. The banged-up Seahawks could also return some key bodies on the offensive line as well (Duane Brown and Mike Iupati), so try to stay ahead of those injury updates.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: HOUSTON TEXANS (+10) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Houston’s Wild Card Weekend win over Buffalo wasn’t pretty. There were bad decisions made by both teams on the field and the sideline but in the end, the Texans were able to get on the back of QB Deshaun Watson and squeeze one out in overtime.

This line opened as low as Houston +7.5 (most at +8) visiting the Chiefs but that quickly moved as high as +10 and many books are dealing a double-digit spread for this Divisional Round game in Kansas City. The Chiefs enjoyed a first-round bye and, as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, get to host this game at Arrowhead, which will be deafening come Sunday.

The Texans did earn a 31-24 victory over the Chiefs in K.C. back in Week 6 but Kansas City finished the season on a six-game winning run and posted a 5-0-1 ATS record in that span, playing its best football to finish the schedule. While this line made a big move, pushing from the dead number of -8 to -10 isn’t as risky. Houston backers can grab +10 and wait it out to see if you can get +10.5 once the public plays the Chiefs.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

The total for Titans at Ravens opened as big as 48.5 and is on the way down, with the number dipping as low as 47 at some books. Both teams put up a pile of points in the second half of the schedule, but postseason football is a different beast.

Tennessee is coming of a grinding win over New England, in which it handed the ball off more than 70 percent of the time and controlled the clock for over 31 minutes. The Titans must take a similar approach this Saturday, pounding the Baltimore defense with RB Derrick Henry and keeping MVP Lamar Jackson on the sideline.

When the Ravens do get the ball, there’s no secret to their game plan. This playbook went with the run on more than 56 percent of its play calls this season, which should keep the game clock draining and leave little time for scoring.

Beyond the offenses, both teams have solid stop units as well. Tennessee handcuffed Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Wild Card Round and Baltimore allowed just four opponents to score more than 20 points all season. If you’re on the Under, get in on this number now.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 45 MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Behind a methodical rushing game (almost 37 minutes in TOP) and persistent pass rush, the Vikings defense looked good against the Saints, at least in the first three quarters of Sunday’s Wild Card game. Then, New Orleans stormed back and forced overtime.

San Francisco is very much cut from a similar cloth: control time and tempo with the run and disrupt the passing game with a rush that racked up 48 sacks on the season. That said, the Niners gave up some bigger offensive numbers in December and finished 3-1-1 Over/Under in the final five games.

Minnesota’s defense has been extremely inconsistent this season and got beat up on the road, allowing almost five points more per game as a visitor. This Over/Under opened 45.5 and has come down a tick to 45 points (even flashed a 44.5 at one book). If you think there are more points in store for this NFC Divisional Round battle in the Bay, take your time and see if you can land something sub-45.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


COOKING IN THE BAY

Dalvin Cook looked healthy, racking up 120 total yards and two touchdowns in the Wild Card win over the Saints. Minnesota fed its workhorse running back, as Cook amassed 31 touches - a trend we hope carries into this weekend versus the San Francisco 49ers.

The Niners have an exceptional pass defense — the second-best in the league — which leaves Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota offense to try to exploit San Fran’s No. 11 rush defense, which allowed a middle-of-the-pack 113 yards rushing per game over the course of the year.

Cook will be going from turf to grass this week which helps the Minnesota RB. Cook’s splits favor grass over turf: 4.77 yards per carry and 10.16 yards per reception on grass versus 4.54 ypc and 8.52 ypr indoors.

With the Niners giving up the fewest passing yards to running backs, we're going to avoid Cook’s total yards and instead take the Over on his 80.5 rushing yards as the Minny RB has averaged 107.5 rushing yards per game against Top-10 teams this year.


TAKING HENRY OUT OF THE EQUATION

The Baltimore Ravens have come out of the gates strong this year, leading the league in first-quarter points at eight per game. The Ravens scored 22 times in the first quarter in 2019 with 16 of those being touchdowns. Baltimore will have its hands full with Derrick Henry, but if Lamar Jackson & Co. can jump out to an early lead, they could force Mike Vrabel and the offense to lean on the pass a bit more than they are used to. Tennessee finished last in the league in pass attempts per game over the final three weeks of the regular season.

Now that it's not his birthday and that Henry's hype is at its peak, Saturday night might be a great time to fade the league’s best rusher as his stock has never been higher.

The Ravens have allowed 101.2 rushing yards per game to opposing teams at home, which is the sixth-lowest production and included five Top-15 DVOA rushing offenses. We're taking a stab and fading the league’s leading rusher. Take Henry’s 93.5 rush yards and hit the Under.

If you want to somewhat hedge against yourself and against the elite skills of the Titans’ RB, look at Henry’s Over 0.5 rushing TDs for a very reasonable -117. Henry has scored a rushing touchdown AND been held to Under 93 rushing yards six times this year.


WORST PASSING D IN PLAYOFFS

The Houston Texans are going from seeing Josh Allen in the pocket to the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes. This is a serious worry for a Houston secondary that gave up 266.4 passing yards during the season (fourth-most) and even more on the road at 293.4 yards (second-most).

Although Mahomes hasn’t looked like his 2018-self since the injury — over 260 yards just twice since Week 11 — the added rest will only help the K.C. QB, who averaged 276 yards passing at Arrowhead Stadium this season. Over the last five weeks of the regular season, Houston allowed 300-plus yards passing three times.

With RB Damien Williams receiving plenty of looks through the air and Houston giving up the fifth-most passing yards to RBs, these extra gains should help us push Mahomes’ passing total north of 298.5 yards - a total we're taking the Over on.


ONCE DESHAUN A TIME

We cashed last weekend with a Russell Wilson Over rushing total and are setting our sights on this weekend’s second-best running quarterback. Last week, Houston QB Deshaun Watson took off a season-high 14 times which he turned into 55 yards — with a long of 20 yards. Even leading up to the playoffs, with his team’s postseason survival at stake, Watson used his legs to get things done, averaging 6.7 rushes for 37.7 yards from Weeks 15 through 17.

Back in Week 6, Watson terrorized the Chiefs on the ground, racking up two rushing TDs on 42 yards on 10 carries. With the game on the line, Watson knows how to extend the plays and get yards - something he might have to do a lot if Houston trails early and throughout this game. We're backing the Over on Watson’s rushing total of 30.5 yards and putting a little something on his Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns.