Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at GB 01:00 PM
ATL +3.5
O 50.0

NO at TB 01:00 PM
TB +10.0
O 54.5

CAR at CLE 01:00 PM
CLE +1.0

NYJ at BUF 01:00 PM
NYJ +4.5
O 37.5

BAL at KC 01:00 PM
KC -6.5
U 49.5

NYG at WAS 01:00 PM
NYG -3.0
U 40.5

IND at HOU 01:00 PM
U 49.0

NE at MIA 01:00 PM
NE -9.5
O 49.0

CIN at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC -16.0
U 48.5

DEN at SF 04:05 PM
O 45.5

PIT at OAK 04:25 PM
OAK +10.5
O 51.0

PHI at DAL 04:25 PM
U 45.5

DET at ARI 04:25 PM
ARI +2.5
O 40.5

LAR at CHI 08:20 PM
CHI +3.0
U 51.5

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Chiefs 27, Ravens 24 OT— Chiefs converted a 4th-and-9 with 1:20 left that would’ve ended game, then they tied game with 0:53 left, and won it with a FG on first down of OT, followed by a defensive stop. This was a playoff-quality game. Lamar Jackson got hurt at the end of OT; not sure how severe the injury is, but Robert Griffin III played the last two plays of the game.

Ravens ran ball for 198 yards, but were outgained 441-321.

There are four teams at 7-6 in AFC, which is second Wild Card spot, so last three weeks are going to be fun. Denver’s (6-7) loss in San Francisco could be a crippler for them.

Dolphins 34, Patriots 33— One of wildest endings ever; Miami had ball on its own 31-yard line with 0:02 left, down 33-28. They complete a pass over middle about 20 yards down field, toss two fairly short laterals, and they score the game-winning TD. New England’s defense doesn’t have lot of real fast guys. Really a shocking ending.

Patriots have now lost five of their last six visits to Miami; home team won 11 of last 12 series games. New England is 3-4 on road this year; Miami is 6-1 at home. Dolphins are 8-3-1 vs spread in last dozen games as home underdogs. Dolphins’ playoff hopes are still alive.

Saints 28, Buccaneers 14— Tampa Bay’s special teams totally screwed this game up; they missed two pretty easy FG’s (46, 40 yards) when they were ahead, had a punt blocked in 3rd quarter when they led 14-3 and New Orleans looked dead.

Saints’ first six drives: 28 plays, 108 yards, 3 points
Saints’ last four drives (after blocked punt): 33 plays, 175 yards, 25 points

First time these teams played, when Bucs won 48-40 in Week 1, there were 15 plays of 20+ yards; there were only four such plays in this game.

Last five years, Saints are 15-8 vs spread coming off a loss; they’re 17-6 vs spread in last 23 road games, 6-1 this year.

Colts 24, Texans 21— Andrew Luck is Comeback Player of the Year; Indy won six of last seven games after a 1-5 start. Ravens’ loss, coupled with this result and Miami’s win, totally jumble race for second Wild Card in AFC.

Houston could’ve claimed #2 spot in AFC with win here; their 9-game win streak ends. Texans ran for only 89 yards in this game.

Browns 26, Panthers 20— Carolina was inside 10-yard line in last minute, but Newton threw two incomplete passes and Cleveland held on to improve to 5-7-1, while Panthers lost their 5th game in row- they’re 1-6 on road this season.

Carolina had 12-yard edge in field position, was +1 in turnovers, but lost. Scoring 20 points (two TDs, two FGs) on five red zone drives isn’t good enough. Cleveland is 5-7-1; how do you not consider Gregg Williams for the permanent head coaching position?

Packers 34, Falcons 20— Green Bay started this game by losing two replay challenges in first 1:23, which just never happens, but then they whacked Atlanta, scoring five of the first six times they had the ball, and also adding a defensive TD.

Falcons lost their lost their last five games, scoring 17 ppg; they’re 0-7 this season scoring 20 or less points, 4-2 scoring more- they’re 1-5 on road. If you own the Falcons, do you stay the course with this coach and this QB? They’ve got injuries, but they also look like a team that has quit.

Jets 27, Bills 23— 49ers, Raiders both won; had the Jets lost this game, they would’ve had inside track to #1 pick in the draft.

With 1:22 left and Bills up 23-20, Jets had 4th-and goal inside 1-yard line; they went for it and ran ball in for a TD. TV guys had been babbling about how Jets HAD TO GO for it— why? Where does it say that you have to?

Jets had a 20-yard edge in field position in this game; they were outgained 368-248, but snapped a 6-game losing streak. Allen was just 18-37 passing- he did run for 101 yards.

If they re-did the 2018 draft today, Mayfield/Barkley would probably still be top two picks, but what about Darnold/Allen/Rosen? How do they stack up now?

Giants 40, Redskins 16— Pet peeve of mine; NFL is a multi-billon dollar business, yet they cheap out when it comes to QB’s. Every NFL team should have three QB’s active every week, even if the #3 QB is a separate part of the roster. Why? So you don’t get situations like the Redskins have, with two QB’s on roster, neither of whom has been with the team for two weeks yet. It kills the quality of the product; you cannot compete without a QB who knows the plays.

Giants’ rookie RB Barkley only ran ball 14 times, but for 170 yards; he is definitely on a pitch count- his backup ran ball 14 times, too. Giants won four of last five games, but three of the four wins were vs backup QB’s (4th win was vs Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is now a backup). This was a horrendous day for the Redskins.

Which the score 40-16 and Washington driving with about 4:30 left, Redskins’ WR Doctson got a taunting penalty after he made a 20-yard catch; penalty took ball from 2-yard to the 17, then Washington threw an INT on next play. Grow the bleep up, shut up and play!!! Winning teams aren’t stupid. Losing teams do stuff like this all the time.

49ers 20, Broncos 14— Kyle Shanahan beats the team his dad led to two Super Bowl titles. Loss drops Denver to 6-7, a game behind four teams for the 6-seed in the AFC. Game was 20-0 at the half. Broncos converted 2-15 on third down, averaged 3.9 yards per pass attempt.

49ers are 3-3 at home; last five Denver games, four of last six 49er games stayed under total.

Chargers 26, Bengals 21— Bolts won nine of their last ten games, head to Arrowhead this week with chance to tie for AFC West lead. Cincy lost five games in row, seven of last eight- they actually outgained LA 295-288.

Lions 17, Cardinals 3— Arizona’s offense was on the field for 65 plays in this game; they were outscored on those plays 7-3 by the Detroit defense. Total yardage in this slugfest was 279-218 Arizona and it was played in a dome; there was only one play in this game (out of 120) that gained more than 17 yards, by either team.

Cardinals stayed under their team total in six of their last seven games. Six of last seven Detroit games stayed under total; under is 5-2 in Arizona home games. This snaps the Lions’s 8-game losing streak in the desert; their last previous win here was in 1993.

Raiders 24, Steelers 21— Third loss in row for Pittsburgh,, which maintains a half-game lead over Baltimore in AFC East. Roethlisberger missed the first four drives of the second half with a rib injury, then returned to lead two drives, one which put Steelers ahead, other which ended with a missed FG at the gun. Under is 6-1 in Steeler road games this season.

Cowboys 29, Eagles 23 OT— Dallas traded a first-round pick for Amari Cooper; that investment paid off here, with Cooper catching 10 passes for 217 yards and three TD’s, including the GW score in OT, catching a deflected pass and running it in.

Dallas has now won/covered five games in a row; if you had Philly/under, the gambling gods owe you one (or two). Over is now 3-1 in Philly’s road games this season, 5-1 in last six Dallas home games.

There were nine one-score games Sunday, just a great day of football.

Bears 15, Rams 6
— Excellent defensive game for the Bears, who had four takeaways.
— Second week in row Rams gave up a TD pass to an offensive lineman, which is odd.
— New Orleans takes over the #1 seed in the NFC.
— Chicago won six of its last seven games; they’re 9-2-2 in last 13 games as a home dog.

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Monday, December 10, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks

WEEK 15

Thursday, December 13, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Los Angeles Chargers Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday, December 15, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
4:30 PM Houston Texans New York Jets
8:20 PM Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos

Sunday, December 16, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Dallas Cowboys Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans New York Giants
4:05 PM Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers
8:20 PM Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Rams

Monday, December 17, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers

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NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/09/2018 11-13-0 45.83% -16.50
12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............27-24-0.....52.94%.....+3.00

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Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

12/09/2018............3 - 3.................-1.50.......................5 - 6.................-3.00............-4.50
12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals.....................8 - 7..................+1.50....................7 - 9................-9.50...............-8.00

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Monday’s 6-pack

Top 6 picks for Week 14 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Indianapolis Colts +5 (988)- W

2) Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (797)- L

3) Los Angeles Rams -3 (791)-L

4) Buffalo Bills -3 (761)- L

5) New Jersey Giants -3.5 (711)- W

6) Chicago Bears +3 (694)-w

Season record: 42-37-3

Quote of the Day
“In southern California, it takes 45 minutes to get out of your driveway.”
Al Michaels

Monday’s quiz
Matt Prater (then with the Broncos) holds the record for the longest FG in NFL history (64 yards); who did he kick it against?

Sunday’s quiz
Dwyane Wade played his college basketball at Marquette.

Saturday’s quiz
Tom Coughlin was the first coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.


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Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…..

Chiefs 27, Ravens 24 OT— Chiefs converted a 4th-and-9 with 1:20 left that would’ve ended game, then they tied game with 0:53 left, and won it with a FG on first down of OT, followed by a defensive stop. This was a playoff-quality game. Lamar Jackson got hurt at the end of OT; not sure how severe the injury is, but Robert Griffin III played the last two plays of the game.

Ravens ran ball for 198 yards, but were outgained 441-321.

There are four teams at 7-6 in AFC, which is second Wild Card spot, so last three weeks are going to be fun. Denver’s (6-7) loss in San Francisco could be a crippler for them.

Dolphins 34, Patriots 33— One of wildest endings ever; Miami had ball on its own 31-yard line with 0:02 left, down 33-28. They complete a pass over middle about 20 yards down field, toss two fairly short laterals, and they score the game-winning TD. New England’s defense doesn’t have lot of real fast guys. Really a shocking ending.

Patriots have now lost five of their last six visits to Miami; home team won 11 of last 12 series games. New England is 3-4 on road this year; Miami is 6-1 at home. Dolphins are 8-3-1 vs spread in last dozen games as home underdogs. Dolphins’ playoff hopes are still alive.

Saints 28, Buccaneers 14— Tampa Bay’s special teams totally screwed this game up; they missed two pretty easy FG’s (46, 40 yards) when they were ahead, had a punt blocked in 3rd quarter when they led 14-3 and New Orleans looked dead.

Saints’ first six drives: 28 plays, 108 yards, 3 points
Saints’ last four drives (after blocked punt): 33 plays, 175 yards, 25 points

First time these teams played, when Bucs won 48-40 in Week 1, there were 15 plays of 20+ yards; there were only four such plays in this game.

Last five years, Saints are 15-8 vs spread coming off a loss; they’re 17-6 vs spread in last 23 road games, 6-1 this year.

Colts 24, Texans 21— Andrew Luck is Comeback Player of the Year; Indy won six of last seven games after a 1-5 start. Ravens’ loss, coupled with this result and Miami’s win, totally jumble race for second Wild Card in AFC.

Houston could’ve claimed #2 spot in AFC with win here; their 9-game win streak ends. Texans ran for only 89 yards in this game.

Browns 26, Panthers 20— Carolina was inside 10-yard line in last minute, but Newton threw two incomplete passes and Cleveland held on to improve to 5-7-1, while Panthers lost their 5th game in row- they’re 1-6 on road this season.

Carolina had 12-yard edge in field position, was +1 in turnovers, but lost. Scoring 20 points (two TDs, two FGs) on five red zone drives isn’t good enough. Cleveland is 5-7-1; how do you not consider Gregg Williams for the permanent head coaching position?

Packers 34, Falcons 20— Green Bay started this game by losing two replay challenges in first 1:23, which just never happens, but then they whacked Atlanta, scoring five of the first six times they had the ball, and also adding a defensive TD.

Falcons lost their lost their last five games, scoring 17 ppg; they’re 0-7 this season scoring 20 or less points, 4-2 scoring more- they’re 1-5 on road. If you own the Falcons, do you stay the course with this coach and this QB? They’ve got injuries, but they also look like a team that has quit.

Jets 27, Bills 23— 49ers, Raiders both won; had the Jets lost this game, they would’ve had inside track to #1 pick in the draft.

With 1:22 left and Bills up 23-20, Jets had 4th-and goal inside 1-yard line; they went for it and ran ball in for a TD. TV guys had been babbling about how Jets HAD TO GO for it— why? Where does it say that you have to?

Jets had a 20-yard edge in field position in this game; they were outgained 368-248, but snapped a 6-game losing streak. Allen was just 18-37 passing- he did run for 101 yards.

If they re-did the 2018 draft today, Mayfield/Barkley would probably still be top two picks, but what about Darnold/Allen/Rosen? How do they stack up now?

Giants 40, Redskins 16— Pet peeve of mine; NFL is a multi-billon dollar business, yet they cheap out when it comes to QB’s. Every NFL team should have three QB’s active every week, even if the #3 QB is a separate part of the roster. Why? So you don’t get situations like the Redskins have, with two QB’s on roster, neither of whom has been with the team for two weeks yet. It kills the quality of the product; you cannot compete without a QB who knows the plays.

Giants’ rookie RB Barkley only ran ball 14 times, but for 170 yards; he is definitely on a pitch count- his backup ran ball 14 times, too. Giants won four of last five games, but three of the four wins were vs backup QB’s (4th win was vs Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is now a backup). This was a horrendous day for the Redskins.

Which the score 40-16 and Washington driving with about 4:30 left, Redskins’ WR Doctson got a taunting penalty after he made a 20-yard catch; penalty took ball from 2-yard to the 17, then Washington threw an INT on next play. Grow the bleep up, shut up and play!!! Winning teams aren’t stupid. Losing teams do stuff like this all the time.

49ers 20, Broncos 14— Kyle Shanahan beats the team his dad led to two Super Bowl titles. Loss drops Denver to 6-7, a game behind four teams for the 6-seed in the AFC. Game was 20-0 at the half. Broncos converted 2-15 on third down, averaged 3.9 yards per pass attempt.

49ers are 3-3 at home; last five Denver games, four of last six 49er games stayed under total.

Chargers 26, Bengals 21— Bolts won nine of their last ten games, head to Arrowhead this week with chance to tie for AFC West lead. Cincy lost five games in row, seven of last eight- they actually outgained LA 295-288.

Lions 17, Cardinals 3— Arizona’s offense was on the field for 65 plays in this game; they were outscored on those plays 7-3 by the Detroit defense. Total yardage in this slugfest was 279-218 Arizona and it was played in a dome; there was only one play in this game (out of 120) that gained more than 17 yards, by either team.

Cardinals stayed under their team total in six of their last seven games. Six of last seven Detroit games stayed under total; under is 5-2 in Arizona home games. This snaps the Lions’s 8-game losing streak in the desert; their last previous win here was in 1993.

Raiders 24, Steelers 21— Third loss in row for Pittsburgh,, which maintains a half-game lead over Baltimore in AFC East. Roethlisberger missed the first four drives of the second half with a rib injury, then returned to lead two drives, one which put Steelers ahead, other which ended with a missed FG at the gun. Under is 6-1 in Steeler road games this season.

Cowboys 29, Eagles 23 OT— Dallas traded a first-round pick for Amari Cooper; that investment paid off here, with Cooper catching 10 passes for 217 yards and three TD’s, including the GW score in OT, catching a deflected pass and running it in.

Dallas has now won/covered five games in a row; if you had Philly/under, the gambling gods owe you one (or two). Over is now 3-1 in Philly’s road games this season, 5-1 in last six Dallas home games.

There were nine one-score games Sunday, just a great day of football.

Bears 15, Rams 6
— Excellent defensive game for the Bears, who had four takeaways.
— Second week in row Rams gave up a TD pass to an offensive lineman, which is odd.
— New Orleans takes over the #1 seed in the NFC.
— Chicago won six of its last seven games; they’re 9-2-2 in last 13 games as a home dog.

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Sharps take early shot at Chargers' odds for NFL Week 15 clash vs. Chiefs
Patrick Everson

Star tight end Travis Kelce has helped the Chiefs compile the AFC's best record. However, the surging Chargers drew early sharp money for Thursday's Week 15 AFC clash against host Kansas City.

As mid-December approaches, it’s definitely getting down to crunch time in the NFL’s race for postseason berths. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four Week 15 games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Kansas City is in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, but this Thursday night clash will be key to staying in that seat. The Chiefs (11-2 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) converted two fourth downs to get a late fourth-quarter touchdown that forced overtime against Baltimore, then won 27-24 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 14.

Los Angeles isn’t getting the headlines, but is having an excellent season and can tie K.C. for the best mark in the AFC with a win in the first game of Week 15. The Chargers (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) went off as hefty 17-point home faves against Cincinnati in Week 14 and bolted to a 14-3 lead, then held on for a 26-21 victory.

“Crazy turn of events for the Chiefs, with them pulling out the victory over Baltimore and New England’s stunning loss to the Dolphins. The Steelers and Texans both lost, too,” Murray said. “Kansas City can basically wrap up the division and home field with a win here, but this is usually when Philip Rivers and the Chargers are at their best as a road ‘dog. This should be the best Thursday night game of the season and a very high-volume game for the books.”

To Murray’s point, the Chargers got a little sharp play early at +3.5, so The SuperBook adjusted Los Angeles’ price to -120.

“The wiseguys love betting the Chargers as a road ‘dog,” he said.


New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (Off)

New England is coming off an absolutely stunning Week 14 loss. Leading at Miami 33-28 with 16 seconds left and the Dolphins at their own 31-yard line, the Patriots (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) gave up a 69-yard pass play/double lateral for a touchdown to fall 34-33 laying 9.5 points.

Pittsburgh’s wheels have fallen off over the past three weeks, with Mike Tomlin’s troops dropping three in a row SU and ATS. In Week 14, the Steelers (7-5-1 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) had a major toe-stub as 10.5-point favorites, giving up a final-minute touchdown in a 24-21 loss to Oakland.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suffered a rib injury in the setback, though he did return and nearly rallied Pittsburgh to a victory.

“We left this off the board because at the time we were doing the numbers, Roethlisberger was out of the game with the injury,” Murray said. “It should open with the Steelers a small favorite.”


Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)

Los Angeles had the best record in the league entering Week 14 and an offense averaging 34.9 points per game, second in the NFL to Kansas City. None of that was evident in the Sunday nighter at Chicago, as the Rams (11-2 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) fell 15-6 giving 3 points.

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is very likely looking at a much shorter season this year. The Eagles (6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS) desperately needed a win at Dallas in Week 14 and got a late TD to force overtime, but never saw the ball again in a 29-23 loss as 3.5-point road underdogs.

“The Rams have failed to deliver as a big favorite several times this season,” Murray said, while noting that won’t necessarily stop bettors in the Week 15 Sunday nighter. “A lot of moneyline parlays and teasers this week will go to the Rams and the Saints (at Carolina) the following night. We will need the Eagles pretty big here.”

The line quickly went to Rams -8, then -8.5, but Murray said that was more about getting in line with the market than any early action. Per standard SuperBook policy, the Eagles-Rams line was then taken off the board before the Rams-Bears game. The number will be rehung Monday morning.


Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Dallas was 3-5 through eight games, then strung together five straight wins and covers to take control of the NFC East. The Cowboys (8-5 SU and ATS) gave up a late TD to Philadelphia, tying the game at 23, but got a touchdown on the only drive of overtime for a 29-23 victory giving 3.5 points at home.

Indianapolis is having a pretty good second half of the season, too, winning six of its last seven games (4-2-1 ATS). The Colts (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) halted red-hot Houston’s nine-game win streak by notching a 24-21 victory as 4-point road pups in Week 14.

“We thought we would take some money if we opened the game Dallas +3, and we did,” Murray said, noting early action moved Dallas’ price to -120 at the +3. “We are fine with that. And the Colts were very impressive in winning at Houston.”

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MNF - Vikings at Seahawks
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

One season after sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, the Vikings (6-5-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) are in danger of missing the playoffs. It’s been an up and down season in Minnesota as the Vikings are coming off a 24-10 setback at New England as six-point underdogs. The Vikings trailed 10-0 early before Kirk Cousins hit Adam Thielen on a five-yard touchdown in the final minute before halftime to cut the deficit to 10-7.

Minnesota tied the game at 10-10 in the third quarter on a Dan Bailey field goal, but the Patriots struck for two touchdowns to pull away for the victory and cover. Cousins finished with 201 passing yards in spite of 32 completions, while getting intercepted twice. The Patriots picked up 27 first downs compared to 16 by the Vikings, as Minnesota has lost its past two road games and failed to cover each time as an underdog.

The Seahawks (7-5 SU, 7-3-2 ATS) have come back to life in the NFC Wild Card race by pulling out three consecutive victories. The latest triumph came in a 43-16 rout of the 49ers last Sunday as 10-point favorites to move above .500 at home with a 3-2 mark. Russell Wilson completed only 11 passes, but four of those went for touchdowns, including two scoring strikes to Jaron Brown.

Seattle’s rushing attack continued to punish the opposition by gaining 168 yards, while Bobby Wagner finished off the blowout with a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Although Seattle allowed 49ers’ quarterback Nick Mullens to throw for 414 yards and two touchdowns, the Seahawks allowed 17 points or less for the fifth time this season.

TOTAL RECALL

The Seahawks began the season cashing the UNDER in six of eight games. However, Seattle has turned up the offense by hitting the OVER in each of the past four contests. The offense has provided 27 points or more in each of the last four games, while eclipsing that total in seven of the past eight contests. Seattle has drilled the OVER in three of the previous four games at CenturyLink Field, while allowing 24 points or more three times in this span.

The Vikings hit the OVER in four of their first seven contests, but have finished UNDER the total in four of the last five games. The Minnesota offense has been inconsistent during this stretch by failing to score 21 points or more in consecutive games, while allowing 24 points or more in losses to New England, Chicago, and New Orleans, all division leaders.

ROAD WOES

Last season, Minnesota won six of eight games away from U.S. Bank Stadium, but has stumbled to a 2-3-1 road mark this season. The only victory for the Vikings in the road underdog role came at Philadelphia in a Week 5 triumph, 23-21 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs. Minnesota has compiled a 2-2 ATS record when receiving points on the highway, while going 4-6 ATS in this role since 2016.

SERIES HISTORY

The Seahawks and Vikings haven’t hooked up since facing each other twice in 2015. Seattle destroyed Minnesota, 38-7 in Week 13 of that season, while the Seahawks edged the Vikings, 10-9 in the Wild Card round. The playoff win for Seattle came in the bitter cold as Vikings’ kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip-shot field goal that would have given Minnesota the victory. In the two losses, the Vikings reached the end zone only once, which came on a 101-yard kickoff return in the December defeat when Minnesota trailed, 35-0.

Seattle has captured each of the past four matchups in the series, including a pair of wins at CenturyLink Field by double-digits in 2012 and 2013. Minnesota’s last win over Seattle came in 2009, back when Brett Favre was still the quarterback of the Vikings in a 35-9 blowout at the Metrodome.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Vikings are making their first appearance on Monday night football this season, as Minnesota won in each of their Monday matchups in 2017. Last season, the Vikings defeated the Saints in the season opener at home, while edging the Bears at Soldier Field, 20-17 as 3 ½-point favorites. Minnesota is listed as an underdog on Monday night for the first time since 2013, when the Vikings fell to the Giants, 23-7 as four-point ‘dogs.

Seattle last appeared under the Monday night lights in Week 2 at Chicago in a 24-17 setback as 4 ½-point underdogs. Since Wilson was drafted by the Seahawks in 2012, Seattle has won six of eight times in Monday action, but the two losses have come in each of the past two seasons, including a home defeat to Atlanta in 2017.

TREND WATCH

Trends expert Vince Akins checks in with a pair of trends to keep an eye on for Monday’s contest, both involving Minnesota. “The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (7.91 ppg) since Dec 21, 2006 as a dog coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards,” Akins notes, which includes an underdog victory at Philadelphia in Week 5.

From a totals perspective, Akins provides an UNDER situation for Minnesota, “The Vikings are 0-12 OU (-9.00 ppg) since Oct 12, 2014 when they are coming off a road game where they were not more than TD-dogs and gained less than 310 total yards.” This situation occurred back in Week 12 against Green Bay, as the Vikings won, 24-17 and stayed UNDER the total of 48 ½.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Seahawks opened up as 3 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, while the total sat at 45 last Monday. Nearly seven days later and not much movement on the number as Seattle is laying three at most spots with the juice at -115 or -120. The total has taken a split uptick to 45 ½ as the Vikings are 3-0 to the OVER on road totals of 45 ½ or less this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 14
December 9, 2018
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Dec. 10

Minnesota at Seattle, 8:15 p.m. EST, ESPN. The Vikings (6-5-1) and Seahawks (7-5) square off in a meeting filled with playoff implications. Kirk Cousins and Minnesota are in the No. 6 spot in the NFC and its tie earlier this season against Green Bay could end up being a hindrance - or a benefit. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks won't be able to catch the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West, but their three-game win streak has them sitting in the No. 5 spot in the NFC playoff picture.

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STARS

Passing

- Dak Prescott, Cowboys, threw three touchdown passes - including the winner to Amari Cooper in overtime - and set career highs in completions (42), attempts (54) and yards (455) as Dallas edged Philadelphia 29-23.

- Andrew Luck, Colts, passed for 399 yards and two touchdowns, and Indianapolis ended Houston's nine-game winning streak with a 24-21 road victory.

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, threw for 377 yards with two touchdowns and an interception as Kansas City clinched a playoff spot with a 27-24 victory over Baltimore.

- Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins, had three TD passes and finished 14 of 19 for 265 yards in Miami's 34-33 win over New England.

- Nick Mullens, 49ers, threw for 332 yards and two touchdowns on 20-of-33 passing in San Francisco's 20-14 victory over Denver.

- Baker Mayfield, Browns, completed 18 of 22 passes (81.8 percent) for 238 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions for a 126.9 passer rating in Cleveland's 26-20 victory over Carolina.

- Derek Carr, Raiders, went 25 of 34 for 322 yards and two TDs - including a 6-yard pass to Derek Carrier with 21 seconds left - to lead Oakland past Pittsburgh 24-21.

- Eli Manning, Giants, threw three touchdown passes before leaving early in the fourth quarter of New York's 40-16 rout of Washington.

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Rushing

- Saquon Barkley, Giants, rushed for 170 yards, including a 78-yard touchdown to surpass 1,000 yards for the season, and New York routed Washington 40-16.

- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, had 192 yards from scrimmage on 40 touches: 28 carries for 113 yards and 12 catches for 79 in Dallas' 29-23 overtime win over Philadelphia.

- Joe Mixon, Bengals, ran for 111 yards and a TD on 26 carries in Cincinnati's 26-21 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

- Frank Gore, Dolphins, had 92 yards rushing on just 12 attempts - a 7.7-yard average - in Miami's 34-33 win over New England.

- Josh Allen, Bills, had 101 yards rushing on nine carries in Buffalo's 27-23 loss to the New York Jets to become just the second quarterback in NFL history to top 90 yards in three consecutive games, joining Tobin Rote, who did it with Green Bay in 1951.

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Receiving

- Amari Cooper, Cowboys, had 10 catches for 217 yards and three touchdowns to help lead Dallas to a 29-23 overtime win over Philadelphia.

- George Kittle, 49ers, caught seven passes for 210 yards, including an 85-yard TD, becoming the franchise's first tight end to reach the 1,000-yard milestone and leading San Francisco past Denver 20-14.

- Julio Jones, Falcons, had two touchdown catches and finished with eight receptions for 106 yards in Atlanta's 34-20 loss at Green Bay.

- T.Y. Hilton, Colts, caught nine passes for 199 yards in Indianapolis' 24-21 win at Houston.

- JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers, had eight receptions for 130 yards and two TDs in Pittsburgh's 24-21 loss at Oakland.

- Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, had eight catches for 139 yards in Kansas City's 27-24 overtime win over Baltimore.

- Kenny Stills, Dolphins, caught eight passes for 135 yards and a TD to help Miami edge New England 34-33.

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Special Teams

- Michael Badgley, Chargers, kicked four field goals - including a team-record 59-yarder - as the Los Angeles held off Cincinnati 26-21.

- Harrison Butker, Chiefs, atoned for a 43-yard miss as time expired with a 36-yard field goal in overtime, and Kansas City topped Baltimore 27-24.

- Taysom Hill, Saints, blocked a punt in New Orleans' 28-14 win at Tampa Bay.

- Henry Anderson, Jets, blocked a field-goal attempt in New York's 27-23 victory at Buffalo, giving him blocks in consecutive games after he knocked away an extra-point try at Tennessee.

- Brett Maher, Cowboys, set a Dallas franchise record with a 62-yard field goal on the final play of the first half and had three field goals in a 29-23 overtime victory against Philadelphia.

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Defense

- Trumaine Johnson, Jets, intercepted two passes, including a victory-sealing pick in the fourth quarter of New York's 27-23 win at Buffalo.

- Curtis Riley, Giants, scored on a 9-yard pick-6 in the first quarter of New York's 40-16 win at Washington.

- Darius Slay, Lions, returned an interception 67 yards in Detroit's 17-3 victory at Arizona.

- Bashaud Breeland, Packers, had a 22-yard interception return for a score in Green Bay's 34-20 win over Atlanta.

- Chris Jones, Chiefs, got a sack in Kansas City's 27-24 overtime win over Baltimore, making him the first player to record a sack in at least nine consecutive games in a single season since the individual sack became an official statistic in 1982.

- Luke Kuechly, Panthers, forced two fumbles in Carolina's 26-20 loss at Cleveland.

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MILESTONES

New England's Tom Brady passed for 358 yards with three touchdowns in the Patriots' 34-33 loss at Miami, giving him 582 career TD passes - including the postseason - to pass Peyton Manning (579) for the most in NFL history. Brady also has 47 career games with at least 300 yards passing and three TD passes, surpassing Manning (46 games) for second most in league annals. Only New Orleans' Drew Brees (63) has more. ... New York's Saquon Barkley ran for 170 yards, including a 78-yard touchdown, in New York's 40-16 rout of Washington. Barkley became the first Giants rookie to break 1,000 yards and set a single-season franchise rookie record with his 13th touchdown. ... Miami's Frank Gore has 18,530 career yards from scrimmage, surpassing LaDainian Tomlinson for the fifth-most scrimmage yards in NFL history. ... Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes was 35 of 53 for 377 yards in the Chiefs' 27-24 overtime victory over Baltimore, giving him 4,300 yards and 43 TD passes. He joins Pro Football Hall of Famers Dan Marino (1984) and Kurt Warner (1999) as the only first- or second-year QBs in league annals with at least 4,000 yards passing and 40 TD passes in a single season. ... Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald caught five passes against Detroit to move ahead of Jerry Rice for most receptions by a player for one team at 1,286. ... Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has 86 catches and 1,159 receiving yards this season, making him the first player at his position with at least 80 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive seasons. ... New Orleans' Michael Thomas has 298 receptions since entering the league in 2016, surpassing Odell Beckham Jr. (288 catches from 2014-16) and Jarvis Landry (288, 2014-16) for the most catches by a player in his first three seasons. ... Eric Ebron set a Colts franchise record for tight ends with 12 TD catches.

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STREAKS & STATS

Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers completed 21 of 32 passes for 196 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 103.1 passer rating in the Packers' 34-20 victory over Atlanta. He has not thrown an interception in 368 pass attempts dating to Week 4, surpassing Tom Brady (358 consecutive attempts from 2010-11) for the most pass attempts without an INT in NFL history. ... Kansas City's Chris Jones has at least one sack in each of the Chiefs' past nine games, becoming the first player to get at least one in at least nine consecutive games in a single season since the individual sack became an official statistic in 1982. He's the sixth player since 1982 to manage at least one in nine consecutive games at any point in time. ... Cleveland's Baker Mayfield has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his first 10 career starts, joining Kurt Warner (1999) and Brad Johnson (1996-97) as the only quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era with a touchdown pass in each of his first 10 career starts. ... Atlanta's Julio Jones leads the NFL with 1,429 yards receiving, and has at least 1,400 in each of the past five seasons, the longest streak in NFL history.

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TICKETS PUNCHED

New Orleans defeated Tampa Bay 28-14 to clinch the NFC South title for the second consecutive season. It's the first time the Saints have won back-to-back division crowns. ... Kansas City clinched a playoff berth for the fourth year in a row with a 27-24 overtime victory over Baltimore.

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SOUTH BEACH STUNNER

Miami defeated New England 34-33 on the final play from scrimmage when running back Kenyan Drake took a lateral from wide receiver DeVante Parker 52 yards for a touchdown as time expired. The Dolphins' winning 69-yard touchdown was the longest play from scrimmage to win a game with no time remaining in the fourth quarter since the 1970 merger.

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SIDELINED

Dallas right guard Zack Martin left in the second half of a 29-23 overtime win over Philadelphia with a knee injury. Eagles running back Corey Clement injured his right knee when he was stopped for a 4-yard loss late in the first quarter and didn't return. ... Buffalo was down to third-string running back Marcus Murphy after LeSean McCoy was sidelined by a hamstring injury in the first quarter and Chris Ivory hurt his ankle in the third quarter of the loss to the Jets. Starting linebacker Matt Milano was carted off the field after getting his leg tangled while stopping Jets rookie quarterback Sam Darnold at the goal line. ... Detroit was hit hard by injuries in its win over Arizona. In the span of three plays, the Lions lost defensive ends Ezekiel Ansah (knee) and Da'Shawn Hand (shoulder). Later in the half, right tackle Rick Wagner left with a concussion. ... Washington tight end Jordan Reed injured his right foot in the first quarter and did not return in a loss to the New York Giants.

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SPEAKING

''We had them right where we wanted. Not really surprised with how things turned out.'' - Miami's Ryan Tannehill after the Dolphins stunned New England 34-33 on a last-play 69-yard lateral touchdown that included a few laterals.

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''It's like telling me, `Hey, there's pizza here, don't have a slice.' I'm going to have a slice. Joe refuses to believe he's an O-lineman. It was not a smart play.'' - San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan on left tackle Joe Staley, who celebrated a rare catch, the third of his 12-year career, late in the first half of the 49ers' 20-14 win over Denver when he got his hands on a tipped pass by a defender for a 5-yard loss.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 10
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at SEA 08:15 PM

MIN +3.0

O 45.5

[StarDust Bum]

Seahawks on brink of playoffs after 21-7 win over Vikings
December 10, 2018
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SEATTLE (AP) Bobby Wagner leaped over the line of scrimmage, swatted Dan Bailey's field goal attempt and sparked the Seattle Seahawks to two late touchdowns.

Whether or not what Wagner did was entirely legal, he frankly didn't care.

''I'm not stressing about that. I made the play. They called what they called,'' Wagner said. ''There's times in games where things happen all the time. I'm not stressing on it. It was a big block and we'll definitely take it. It was amazing.''

Wagner's block midway through the fourth quarter was the catalyst in a 21-7 win over the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night that pushed Seattle to the brink of a playoff berth.

Chris Carson followed the blocked kick with a 2-yard TD run with 2:53 left, and Justin Coleman capped off the Seahawks' fourth straight victory with a 29-yard fumble return for a touchdown 18 seconds later.

What was an ugly and mostly forgettable first three quarters turned into a Seattle party in the fourth as the Seahawks (8-5) moved to the brink of wrapping up a wild-card spot in the NFC. One win in Seattle's final three games - including matchups with lowly San Francisco and Arizona - should be enough to put the Seahawks into the postseason.

''It's really about the defense. I loved the way they played, they played so hard and so spirited,'' Seattle coach Pete Carroll said. ''It was almost poetic after last week's game that Bobby would get to block the field goal and he pulled it off and did it. That was an incredible play.''

Minnesota (6-6-1) twice had scoring chances in the fourth quarter when it was still a one-score game but was turned away each time. Minnesota's chances of winning the NFC North took a major hit with its second straight loss, but the Vikings still hold the No. 6 spot in the NFC.

''Part of it is being better on third downs. We haven't really done a good job there. Part of it is being better in the red zone,'' Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said. ''We had the ball on the 2-yard line and didn't score.''

But much of the conversation centered on Wagner's block of Bailey's 47-yard attempt with 5:38 left and whether it was entirely legal. Wagner's jump through a gap in Minnesota's offensive line was fine, but it appeared he used his teammates to gain leverage, which allowed him to come through and block the kick. A flag was initially thrown but was picked up by the officials.

Wagner said he attempted it four times in practice without a problem but acknowledged it could be tough to pull off the play during the fourth quarter of a tight game.

''When I did it in practice I was pretty fresh,'' Wagner said.

Zimmer said he asked for an explanation of what happened but wasn't given one. He was told he couldn't challenge.

''Quite honestly, I didn't see what happened. I was told what happened,'' Zimmer said.

Seattle took possession and Russell Wilson immediately scrambled 40 yards deep into Minnesota territory. Five plays later, Carson scored and Seattle finally had a cushion. Two plays after that, Jacob Martin sacked Minnesota's Kirk Cousins and the ball popped to Coleman, who weaved his way for the clinching touchdown.

Cousins threw a 6-yard touchdown pass to Dalvin Cook with 1:10 remaining, but Seattle recovered the onside kick.

''I feel like all of our losses we, as an offense, we are so slow,'' Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen said. ''Our defense is keeping us in games. And we're not pulling our side of the bargain.''

Wilson had one of the worst passing games of his career, completing 10 of 20 attempts for career-low 72 yards and a baffling interception late in the first half, one of the many mistakes by Seattle that allowed Minnesota to hang around. But Seattle's ground game was outstanding against one of the better run defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks finished with 214 yards rushing, led by 90 yards from Carson.

Sebastian Janikowski hit field goals of 37 and 35 yards to account for all of Seattle's scoring until the closing minutes.

''If you run it 40-something times, you ought to win. That was pretty good,'' Carroll said.

FOURTH QUARTER WOES

Minnesota hung around despite failing to run a play in Seattle territory until there was 4:16 left in the third quarter. Cousins was 20 of 33 for 208 yards, most of that coming late. But he failed to get the Vikings into the end zone from inside the Seattle 5 while trailing 6-0 early in the fourth quarter.

The Vikings had first-and-goal at the Seattle 4 but turned the ball over on downs with 9:06 remaining. Two short runs and an incompletion brought up fourth-and-goal at the 1, and Cousins' pass for Kyle Rudolph was knocked away by Bradley McDougald. Bailey's field goal was blocked on Minnesota's next drive.

REACHING 100

Minnesota fell to 0-6 when allowing its opponents to run for at least 100 yards. The Vikings came in to the week giving up 99 yards per game on the ground, good for seventh-best in the NFL. Seattle had 136 yards rushing in the first half.

OTHER CENTURY MARK

Thielen tied Cris Carter as the fastest Minnesota player to reach 100 receptions in a season, both accomplishing the feat in 13 games. Carter did it in 1994 when he finished the year with 122 catches. Thielen is the first Minnesota receiver to get to 100 catches since Randy Moss in 2003. But Thielen didn't get his first catch until midway through the third quarter. He finished with five catches for 70 yards.

UP NEXT

Minnesota: The Vikings return home to host Miami on Sunday.

Seattle: The Seahawks play their final road game Sunday at San Francisco.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 15

Thursday, December 13, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Los Angeles Chargers Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday, December 15, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
4:30 PM Houston Texans New York Jets
8:20 PM Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos

Sunday, December 16, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Dallas Cowboys Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans New York Giants
4:05 PM Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers
8:20 PM Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Rams

Monday, December 17, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers


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NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/10/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/09/2018 11-13-0 45.83% -16.50
12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............27-26-0.....50.94%.....-8.00

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Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

12/10/2018............0 - 1.................-5.50.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-11.00
12/09/2018............3 - 3.................-1.50.......................5 - 6.................-3.00.............-4.50
12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals.....................8 - 8..................-4.00....................7 - 10................-15.00...............-19.00

[StarDust Bum]

Books hammer public in Week 14
December 10, 2018
By Micah Roberts

It was electric Sunday in Las Vegas for Week 14 of NFL action, but the wild turn of events in several key games didn't result in wins for the majority of bettors. Favorites ended up going 5-9 against-the-spread with seven underdogs winning outright capped off at night by the Bears handing the NFC-leading Rams their second loss of the season in a 15-6 win.

"It was a great day," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "It was the second best day of the season so far. We had a nice combination of large casino players mixed in with heavy public action and then the sharps didn't do particularly well, either. The few games we lost were small losses and the wins we had were significant."

The Bears (+3) win Sunday night was the cherry on top of a perfect Sunday for the MGM books. The Bears crushed any parlay liability that had survived from the first 13 games.

It was a different story over at the South Point with the late game. "We needed the favorite," said Jimmy Vaccaro who will be leaving soon for a gig in Pennsylvania. Vaccaro grew up in the Pittsburgh area, was featured on the Simpsons as a bookmaker and just about every person in the betting world knows his name. He's going home because sports betting is legal there now. He's been in Las Vegas since 1975 on what was a simple cross-country road trip. Anyway, despite the Rams losing, the South Point book still won.

There was just one popular favorite that cashed at the majority of the books.

"Surprisingly, the Saints covering wasn't that big of a deal to us," said Stoneback. "The larger bets on the game were all taking the Bucs and the smaller money was on the Saints, but with so many of the other favorites not getting there wasn't a lot live to tie the Saints into with teasers and parlays."

Tampa had a storm roll through that appeared to slow the Saints early on as they trailed 14-3 at the half. But as the sunshine came out and the rain went away, the Saints offense woke up and they went on 25-0 run in the second half to win 28-14 and covered the spread that ran from -8.5 to -9.5. Due to the Rams loss, the Saints are now the NFC's No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

"The Browns and Ravens were our big games of the day and then the Raiders win was a close third," said Stoneback. "We knocked out a lot of teasers with those and the Steelers losing was the best result for us in regards to large money-line favorite parlays."

How about those Browns? It's hard not to cheer for them after a few seasons of misery. They beat the Panthers, 26-20 sending Carolina to its fifth straight loss (0-5 ATS).

The Chiefs found themselves in another battle, this time against the No. 1 ranked defense of the Ravens. It took overtime for Kansas City to win 27-24, but you can see some drag on the Chiefs excitement level with bettors because they're not covering after starting a perfect 7-0 ATS. They're now 1-4-1 ATS in their last six with a very liberal defense having trouble stopping just about every squad they've faced lately. But there still is the reality of the Chiefs only two losses coming on the road by three points against the Patriots and Rams. They're gunning for the No. 1 seed at 11-2.

The Ravens maintain their No. 6 slot in the AFC playoff race with three other teams at 7-6 as well who are outside looking into the picture. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson got hurt during overtime so be sure to check his status before betting Sunday's game against the Buccaneers. Jackson's play is simple and he misses a lot of targets, but it's effective with his running game and the Ravens defense doing their thing. Coach John Harbaugh thinks so as well which is why regular starter Joe Flacco wasn't even active, despite being healthy, Sunday. The current back-up is Robert Griffin III.

"We moved the Chiefs down from 4/1 to 7/2 odds after today and we also dropped the Colts from 75/1 down to 60/1 after today's results," said Stoneback about his Super Bowl futures adjustments.

The Colts (+4) came up with a huge road win, 24-21, at Houston and halted the Texans' nine-game win streak. Indy is one of those 7-6 teams chasing Baltimore for the final Wild Card slot.

"The best games for us were the Raiders, Colts, and Packers," said Vaccaro.

The Raiders were the biggest underdogs of the day paying out at +475 at the Wynn in a 24-21 win against the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger is now 0-4 at Oakland as the Steelers have now lost three straight. The Packers looked sharp in a 34-20 win against a bad Falcons squad in the first game since Packers coach Mike McCarthy got fired.

The most electric play of the day happened at the end of the Patriots game at Miami when Dolphins RB Kenyan Drake was at the end of several laterals to score a 69-yard TD as time ran out to win, 34-33. It was a record for longest game-winning play to end a game. The Patriots were bet up from -8.5 to -9 and the Dolphins win paid out +360 at MGM books. It was the ultimate teaser killer for the books because the Patriots were the most popular teaser team.

In other news, Saturday produced a sweet lottery ticket for one lucky dude.

"We had a guy Saturday play a 13-team parlay for $40 with 12 college basketball games mixed with favorites and underdogs and also Army -340 on the money-line that paid out $103,040," said Stoneback.

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 15
Joe Williams

The books made a killing in Week 14, as plenty of underdogs were coming through to save the shops. Generally the public sinks money on the favorites, and 'dogs were hitting all over the boards. I am paraphrashing a user I saw post in passing: "Show me a winning parlay ticket. There weren't many."

We have three regular-season weekends to go, and with college football in the rear-view mirror we get Saturday football, in addition to the usual assortment of Sunday activity. If you love betting NFL, this time of the year is right up your alley, as you have four separate days to watch and win.

Thursday, Dec. 13

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 53)

There hasn't been a lot of movement on this game yet, as most shops have held steady at -3 1/2. If you're feeling the Chiefs, Jerry's Nugget had the line drop from -3 1/2 to -3.

This is a game to watch closely in terms of the injury report. The Chargers have RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler as question marks due to injury. If they're down to their third- and fourth-string tailbacks, the Chiefs could have a big advantage and the line might be on the move.

Saturday, Dec. 15

Houston Texans (-6, 41) at New York Jets

The Texans finally saw their nine-game winning streak come to an end last week, but Vegas feels strongly that a new win streak will begin. The line at Atlantis moved from -6 1/2 to -6, as well as Southpoint and Westgate SuperBook. The Jets have a slew of injury issues of their own, including QB Sam Darnold (foot) who might be missing in action.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-3, 45.5)

The Browns actually resemble an NFL-caliber team after years of futility, led by QB Baker Mayfield. 'The Bake Show' has produced five victories this season, and they're just a half-game back of the Broncos as the teams jockey to stay in the playoff picture. A loss to either likely eliminates them from contention. The line has held steady around -3 at most shops, while Jerry's Nugget dropped the line from -3 1/2 to -3. Westgate SuperBook opened this game at -4, and bettors quickly bet it down to -3, too.

Sunday, Dec. 16

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-8, 44)

The Dolphins are coming off an upset win against the Patriots on the 'Miami Miracle'. The Vikings, meanwhile, were completely listless on offense in a 21-7 loss in Seattle on Monday night.

If you're feeling the 'Fins to do it again, Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -8 1/2, with the Dolphins at +320 on the moneyline. Southpoint and Westgate SuperBook have the game at -8. Offshore some books had the Vikings as high as -9 1/2 to open, but that is likely to drop like a rock.

Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 46)

The Raiders were a big friend of the books, cashing straight-up as a double-digit underdog in the Black Hole against the Steelers a week ago. Now, they hit the road trying to improve to 3-1 SU/ATS against the AFC North Division.

The Bengals have been skidding since QB Andy Dalton went down, but they put up a nice fight on the road to put a scare into the Chargers. There hasn't been a lot of movement on this game at all, with the only line move from -3 1/2 to -3 at Westgate.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-8, 47)

This game has held steady at -8 in favor of the home team at most shops, although if you look around Treasure Island still had it at -7 1/2. That's where it opened at Westgate SuperBook before moving to -8 to get in line with most everyone else.

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)

The first-place Cowboys head to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Colts, who topped the first-place Texans to stay squarely in the playoff chase. This might not have looked like a great game a few weeks ago, but this might be one of the more intriguing battles on the card.

Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -2 1/2 and was quickly bet up to -3 to get in line with most everyone else, although Stations and Treasure Island still have the Colts down at -2 1/2.

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 38)

This is a game, not with teams jockeying for playoff positioning, but for draft position. Surprisingly we have seen a lot of early movement on this line, going from -1 1/2 to -2 1/2 in the matter of an afternoon at the Stratosphere.

Nowhere has the movement been crazier than offshore at BetOnline.ag, however. This line opened with the Lions laying -2, quickly falling to a pick 'em within a matter of hours. The line, in less than 24 hours, has gone from Detroit -2 to Buffalo now favored -2 1/2, getting in line with most Vegas shops.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 45)

The Packers had a feel-good moment at home in interim head coach Joe Philbin's debut, topping the equally depressing Falcons. However, Green Bay's playoff hopes are on life support and they likely need to run the table with A LOT of help.

A win in Chicago would go a long way toward helping Green Bay. Bettors are feeling the Pack, at least early on. The line moved from -6 1/2 to -6 at Caesars. The line at Southpoint opened at -5, and went up to -6 1/2 before falling back down to -5 1/2 all within a few hours.

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2.5, 43.5)

The Titans emasculated the Jaguars last time out, and they have had the luxury of a couple of extra days' rest playing last Thursday. The Giants have not thrown in the towel, winning four of the past five while going 4-0-1 ATS. If you like the Titans, the line moved from -2 1/2 to -3 at the Strat.

Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, 36)

The Redskins hit the road for Jacksonville and they will start their fourth different quarterback in the past month and a half. QB Josh Johnson, recently signed a couple of weeks ago, will start for the ineffective QB Mark Sanchez. Most books have this line listed at -7, although if you're feeling the Jags, Mirage-MGM has the game listed at -6 1/2. Westgate opened it at -7 1/2, and it's down to -7 to get in line with mist everyone else. This total also could close at the lowest mark of the entire NFL season, too.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlatna Falcons (-9, 44)

There has been plenty of movement on this line, so shop around if you're interested in this game. Westgate opened the game at -7 1/2, moving up to -8 1/2 in less than 24 hours. TI hasn't had much movement, as the game has held steady at -8. Atlantis, Caesars and Mirage-MGM have held steady at -9. The total hasn't had any movement, hanging right in at 44 so far.

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 44.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks just handled the 49ers 43-16 on Dec. 2, easily covering a 10-point number with the 'over' hitting. Now, they meet 14 days later in the Bay Area. The 'Hawks have the unenviable position of coming back after an emotional Monday game before traveling on a short week. The Niners showed fortitude with surprising win against the Broncos in Week 14 to knock Denver off the rails.

Westgate opened this game at -6 on Monday afternoon, slipping to -5 1/2 before going OFF during the Monday nighter. Most of the other shops where this game has been available, including Southpoint, is listed at -5 1/2. However, Jerry's Nugget opened the 'Hawks at -5, if you like Seattle.

New England Patriots (-2.5, 49.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The marquee game of the weekend might be in the Steel City, as it's always entertaining when the Patriots and Steelers hook up. Surprisingly, both are coming off road losses despite being heavy favorites.

Caesars saw a ton of early movement on this game, and it's likely just the start. The game opened at -1, quickly moving to -4, before falling back down to -2 1/2. That was the only Vegas shop offering this one, however, as QB Ben Roethlisberger banged up his ribs and his health is a driving factor on where this line will fall.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-9, 53.5)

The defending champs are on the ropes and in desperate need of a signature win. Time is running out. The Rams have already clinched the NFC West, but still have home-field advantage at stake so they need to keep winning.

Caesars opened the game at -10, but bettors quickly jumped on that to bump it down to -9. The game has had a ton of movement at Westgate SuperBook, opening at -7 1/2, moving to -8 within an hour. It moved all the way up to -10 by midday Monday before falling back down slightly to -9 1/2. This will be a line to watch all week.

Monday, Dec. 17

New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 51.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Saints received a gift from the Bears, as they dumped the Rams to send New Orleans to the top of the NFC standings. The Panthers are tumbling down the standings, losing five in a row to go from 6-2 SU to 6-7.

This line is down to -6 1/2 at all shops, which is where it opened at a majority of shops. At Stations, TI and Westgate, the line went from -7 to -6 1/2 to get in line with everyone else. The total is on the move, going from 53 1/2 to 51 1/2 at Atlantis in rather quick order.

[StarDust Bum]

Sharps take early shot at Chargers' odds for NFL Week 15 clash vs. Chiefs
Patrick Everson

Star tight end Travis Kelce has helped the Chiefs compile the AFC's best record. However, the surging Chargers drew early sharp money for Thursday's Week 15 AFC clash against host Kansas City.

As mid-December approaches, it’s definitely getting down to crunch time in the NFL’s race for postseason berths. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four Week 15 games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Kansas City is in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, but this Thursday night clash will be key to staying in that seat. The Chiefs (11-2 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) converted two fourth downs to get a late fourth-quarter touchdown that forced overtime against Baltimore, then won 27-24 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 14.

Los Angeles isn’t getting the headlines, but is having an excellent season and can tie K.C. for the best mark in the AFC with a win in the first game of Week 15. The Chargers (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) went off as hefty 17-point home faves against Cincinnati in Week 14 and bolted to a 14-3 lead, then held on for a 26-21 victory.

“Crazy turn of events for the Chiefs, with them pulling out the victory over Baltimore and New England’s stunning loss to the Dolphins. The Steelers and Texans both lost, too,” Murray said. “Kansas City can basically wrap up the division and home field with a win here, but this is usually when Philip Rivers and the Chargers are at their best as a road ‘dog. This should be the best Thursday night game of the season and a very high-volume game for the books.”

To Murray’s point, the Chargers got a little sharp play early at +3.5, so The SuperBook adjusted Los Angeles’ price to -120.

“The wiseguys love betting the Chargers as a road ‘dog,” he said.


New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (Off)

New England is coming off an absolutely stunning Week 14 loss. Leading at Miami 33-28 with 16 seconds left and the Dolphins at their own 31-yard line, the Patriots (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) gave up a 69-yard pass play/double lateral for a touchdown to fall 34-33 laying 9.5 points.

Pittsburgh’s wheels have fallen off over the past three weeks, with Mike Tomlin’s troops dropping three in a row SU and ATS. In Week 14, the Steelers (7-5-1 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) had a major toe-stub as 10.5-point favorites, giving up a final-minute touchdown in a 24-21 loss to Oakland.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suffered a rib injury in the setback, though he did return and nearly rallied Pittsburgh to a victory.

“We left this off the board because at the time we were doing the numbers, Roethlisberger was out of the game with the injury,” Murray said. “It should open with the Steelers a small favorite.”


Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)

Los Angeles had the best record in the league entering Week 14 and an offense averaging 34.9 points per game, second in the NFL to Kansas City. None of that was evident in the Sunday nighter at Chicago, as the Rams (11-2 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) fell 15-6 giving 3 points.

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is very likely looking at a much shorter season this year. The Eagles (6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS) desperately needed a win at Dallas in Week 14 and got a late TD to force overtime, but never saw the ball again in a 29-23 loss as 3.5-point road underdogs.

“The Rams have failed to deliver as a big favorite several times this season,” Murray said, while noting that won’t necessarily stop bettors in the Week 15 Sunday nighter. “A lot of moneyline parlays and teasers this week will go to the Rams and the Saints (at Carolina) the following night. We will need the Eagles pretty big here.”

The line quickly went to Rams -8, then -8.5, but Murray said that was more about getting in line with the market than any early action. Per standard SuperBook policy, the Eagles-Rams line was then taken off the board before the Rams-Bears game. The number will be rehung Monday morning.


Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Dallas was 3-5 through eight games, then strung together five straight wins and covers to take control of the NFC East. The Cowboys (8-5 SU and ATS) gave up a late TD to Philadelphia, tying the game at 23, but got a touchdown on the only drive of overtime for a 29-23 victory giving 3.5 points at home.

Indianapolis is having a pretty good second half of the season, too, winning six of its last seven games (4-2-1 ATS). The Colts (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) halted red-hot Houston’s nine-game win streak by notching a 24-21 victory as 4-point road pups in Week 14.

“We thought we would take some money if we opened the game Dallas +3, and we did,” Murray said, noting early action moved Dallas’ price to -120 at the +3. “We are fine with that. And the Colts were very impressive in winning at Houston.”

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 14
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 14 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-4
Against the Spread 9-6

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 131-73-2
Against the Spread 92-107-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 127-78-2
Against the Spread 102-97-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 98-108

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Raiders (+10, ML +425) vs. Steelers, 24-21
Dolphins (+9, ML +350) vs. Patriots, 34-33
Jets (+4.5, ML +180) at Bills, 27-23
Colts (+4, ML +170) at Texans, 24-21

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-9.5) at Buccaneers, 28-14
Titans (-5.5) vs. Jaguars, 30-9
Packers (-4) vs. Falcons, 34-20
Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Eagles, 29-23 (OT)

Bay Area Winners

-- The Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers each won on the same day for the first time since Dec. 3, 2017, making Bay Area football fans happy for the first time in a while. The Raiders surprised the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 as double-digit home 'dogs, while the 49ers fired out to a big lead against the Denver Broncos and they held on for a 20-14 victory as short 'dogs at home. The 49ers entered the day 1-5 ATS in their first six games, and 3-9 ATS overall on the season. One of those wins and covers for the Niners were against the Raiders back on Nov. 1.

Carolina Reaper

-- The Carolina Panthers are skidding hard after opening the season 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS. The Panthers took a 26-20 loss against 'The Bake Show' and the Cleveland Browns, losing and failing to cover for the fifth consecutive outing. The defense has allowed 20 or more points in seven straight outings, and 11 of the past 12. On the flip side, the Browns are suddenly resembling an NFL caliber team for the first time in years, winning three of their past four outings while also going 3-1 ATS during the span. They're also 8-5 ATS overall in their 13 outings while going 5-7-1 SU.

Total Recall

-- The game with the highest total on the board (55) never even came close to going 'over'. The New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended up well 'under' in a 28-14 win for the Saints. New Orleans held up their end of the bargain, but head coach Dirk Koetter said after the game he was disappointed in his offense. The second-highest total on the board was the Pittsburgh-Oakland (51) game, and that game ended up going under, too. In fact, there were just 24 points on the board through three quarters and only a 21-point outburst in the fourth made that a closer total that maybe it should have been.

-- The lowest totals on the board were a pair of 37-point lines in the New York Jets-Buffalo Bills contest, and that ended up with a total of 50 points. The Jacksonville Jaguars-Tennessee Titans on Thursday night saw a total of 39 points, as the Titans routed the Jags 30-9. It looked like the total was close, but it was actually over by the end of the third quarter before a scoreless fourth.

-- The 'over/under' is 1-1 this week with the Monday nighter between the Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks (45.5) still pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 22-20 (52.4%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring) pulled a hamstring in Sunday's battle against the Jets in the first quarter and he wasn't able to return. We've seen this movie before.

-- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (thigh) suffered a thigh injury in the team's road loss in San Francisco and he was unable to return.

-- Jets RB Isaiah Crowell (foot) left Sunday's game in Buffalo and he was unable to return to action.

-- Redskins TE Jordan Reed (foot) suffered a foot injury against the Giants and he was helped to the locker room and unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Chargers and Chiefs will square off on Thursday in a key AFC West Division battle. The Chiefs punched their ticket to the postseason with a win on Sunday, and they can take charge (see what I did there?) of the AFC West with a win over the visitors from Los Angeles, currently one-game back of K.C. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, while the Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 inside the division. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, while the Chargers are 0-4 ATS in the past four in this series.

-- The Packers travel down to Chicago to take on the red-hot Bears, who looked good in their win over the Rams on Sunday night. The Pack are just 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight road games and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in the past five divisional games, and 6-1 ATS in the past seven overall. The Packers have dominated this series lately, at least against the number, going 16-5 ATS in the past 21 at Soldier Field and 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five in Chicago, and each of the past four overall in this series.

-- The Seahawks and 49ers do battle in the Bay Area, and San Francisco looks to play spoiler. Seattle is 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four overall. San Fran has failed to cover four in a row inside the division, five in a row against NFC foes and they're just 7-19-1 ATS in the past 27 aginst teams with a winning record while going 6-15 ATS in the past 21 at home. Seattle is 11-2-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings overall, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to San Francisco. The under is also 5-1 in the past six meetings in the Bay Area.

-- The skidding Panthers host the Saints on Monday night in Week 15. New Orleans is 16-6 ATS in the past 22 inside the division, while going 20-6 ATS in the past 26 on the road. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a losing overall mark. Carolina is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 at home, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. However, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. New Orleans has covered four in a row in Charlotte, while going 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The under is also 11-4 in the past 15 in Carolina