Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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JETS WEREN’T READY FOR MAYFIELD

Baker Mayfield looked great in relief of Tyrod Taylor in Week 3. There’s no denying that. But Jets safety Jamal Adams had something interesting to say about it earlier this week: “We had to be open to knowing that Baker could come in, but we were prepared for Tyrod. When Baker came in, obviously we didn't have a game plan for him.”

It makes sense that the Jets didn’t plan for Mayfield. Taylor was the starter and Mayfield might not have touched the field had it not been for Taylor’s injury. Mayfield starts this week, however, and you can bet that Jon Gruden will have the Raiders ready for him. Reports out of Oakland are that Gruden is spending almost every waking moment studying game tapes. We mentioned earlier this week that we’re leaning on the Under for Mayfield’s passing-yards total of 260, mostly because coach Hue Jackson will continue to be run-first and not set Mayfield up for failure. Mayfield might have a great career, but bettors should expect a pedestrian debut. In addition to the passing-total Under, we’re also leaning towards the Raiders at -2.5.


ELI HITTING HIS STRIDE?

A funny thing happened last weekend: Eli Manning resembled a decent NFL quarterback! After two lackluster performances in Weeks 1 and 2, Manning led the Giants to their first win of the season in Houston with a line of 25 for 29, 297 yards, and two touchdowns. Yes, he was still sacked four times, bringing his season total to 12, but luckily for Manning, he’s playing the Saints this weekend.

After playing like a decent defensive unit last season, New Orleans has regressed this season and is currently 30th in the NFL, giving up 421 yards per game. The only team they’ve been able to slow was Tyrod Taylor’s Cleveland Browns, as the Buccaneers scored 48 against them and the Falcons put up 37. The Giants aren’t quite at the offensive level of Tampa Bay and Atlanta, but you could make the argument that their skill-position players are just as good, if not better. The other thing we can bank on in this game is that the Saints will score — they’re averaging just shy of 35 points per game. If Eli isn’t terrible in this one, it’s going to be a shootout, so we’re leaning towards the Over 50.5.


SLOW START IN ARIZONA?

In Week 1, Russell Wilson threw the ball 33 times and the Seahawks lost. In Week 2, 36 times and another loss. Then in Week 3, Wilson threw just 26 times and running back Chris Carson had 32 carries — and Seattle got its first win. We should have seen this coming, as coach Pete Carroll had this to say after the Week 2 loss: “I just got a little impatient and we threw the ball a little more than we needed to. I’m just owning up to it, I need to be a little less impatient.” Obviously, Carroll knows he needs to run to be successful and he’ll likely try to get the run game going early against Arizona on Sunday.

On the other sideline, rookie Josh Rosen makes his first start of the season. He did see the field for two drives last week and threw one interception and another pick-six that got called back due to a defensive penalty. Coach Steve Wilks is going to be very cautious with his play calling, especially early on, and that could mean a lot of David Johnson. With both teams leaning heavily on the run early, we’re going to take the Under 7.5 points for the first quarter.


CARSON TO CRUSH CARDINALS

There’s one sentence in the note above that we need to talk more about: Seahawks running back Chris Carson carried the ball 32 times last week. Heading into Week 2, Carson had just 13 carries on the season. The Seahawks made a commitment to the run and it worked; they controlled the game from start to finish and won.

As Carroll game plans for this week, he’s going to notice that the Cardinals aren’t great against the run. In fact, they’re terrible. They’re giving up 131.3 yards per game and have allowed a league-high five rushing touchdowns already. All signs point towards the Seahawks trying to control the game with the rush once again this week, so we’re going to go big by backing Carson to go Over 58.5 on his rushing total and to score a touchdown at any time.


FALCONS ARE HURTING

Atlanta’s defense is an absolute mess of injuries, with safety Ricardo Allen joining safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones with multiple-game injuries. Drew Brees took full advantage of this last week, posting 396 yards and three touchdowns. Cam Newton did the same in Week 2 with 335 yards and three touchdowns. This week, it’s Andy Dalton’s turn.

The Bengals’ quarterback looked bad with four interceptions last week against Carolina, but he still managed 352 yards through the air on 46 attempts. That happened to be his first full game without running back Joe Mixon, who is expected to miss this week as well. This game is primed to be a shootout with the game total set at 53.5, which means there should be plenty of passing once again from Dalton. Bettors should look to the Over 265.5 for his passing-yards total.

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FLACCO TO CASH IN

Sunday Night Football is going to be fun with an AFC North battle between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. All eyes, as usual, will be on Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, but we’re going to look to Joe Flacco for a winner. Flacco has quietly been one of the top touchdown-producing QBs on the season with six through three games (three in Week 1, two in Week 2, one in Week 3).

On Sunday night, Flacco gets to go against a unit that ranks 31st in the NFL in red-zone defense since the beginning of 2017. It’s also a unit that ranks 29th in total defense so far in 2018. Offensively, the Steelers always put up points at home and oddsmakers expect that to happen again this week as the game has a total of 50. Flacco will be throwing a lot to keep pace and should have success in the red zone against a soft Steelers defense. Let’s back him to throw for Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-122) on Sunday Night Football.


EIFFERT GAINING STEAM

Cincinnati had high hopes for talented tight end Tyler Eifert when it drafted him out of Notre Dame in the first round of the 2013 draft. Eifert has had a rough go recently and hasn’t played in more than eight games in a season since 2015. This year, he’s finally healthy and is trending up as the season moves on.

In Week 1, he played on just 45 percent of the snaps but that number moved to 65 percent in Weeks 2 and 3. His routes-run total has also increased from 18 to 34 to 36 over the first three games. This week, he faces a beat-up Falcons defense that allowed New Orleans’ tight ends to grab six balls for 88 yards last Sunday. Yesterday, we wrote about liking the Over on Dalton’s passing yards, and we’re going to stack that with the Over 4.5 for Eifert’s receptions total.


TOUGH SLEDDING FOR HENRY

If you’ve been reading our NFL betting notes on a regular basis then you know that we love fading the Titans offense. We got a winner with the Under on the Titans team total last week and we’ve already suggested that same bet for this week. So now let’s double down and take the Under on Derrick Henry’s rushing total.

Henry hasn’t cracked the 60-yard mark in any game yet this season. Starting in Week 1, he has gone 10 carries for 26 yards, 18 for 56, and 18 for 57. This week, he faces his toughest challenge to date in Philadelphia. The Eagles own the league’s best rushing defense at 61.7 yards allowed per game. There’s also the fact that Dion Lewis continues to take away snaps from Henry as he’s rushed 39 times and caught nine balls through three weeks. Things aren’t looking great for the Titans offense or Henry, so we’re taking the Under on both.


THOMAS SLOTS IN

Denver QB Case Keenum has quickly developed a nice rapport with Demaryius Thomas. The Broncos’ top target has games with six, five, and five receptions so far this season. On Sunday, he’s in the perfect spot as Denver takes on the Kansas City Chiefs - a team with an amazing offense and a terrible defense.

It doesn’t take an expert to tell you that the Broncos are going to throw a lot to keep up with a Chiefs team that is tops in the NFL at 39.3 points per game. But we can add that the Chiefs are tied for dead last in the NFL in passing defense in giving up 1,088 yards through three weeks. They’ve also given up more targets to slot receivers than any other team since the start of 2017 and Thomas leads the Broncos in slot targets with Keenum at QB. We’re thinking a lot of passes head in Thomas' direction and we're liking the Over 5.5 on Thomas’ receptions total.


IT’S NOT ABOUT THE BENJAMIN

The Bills traded for Kelvin Benjamin at the 2017 deadline to finally solve their receiver woes but it just hasn’t worked out. Benjamin has only topped three receptions once since his acquisition and through three games this season his stats look like this: 1-10-0, 2-19-1, 3-29-0.

The Bills have a lot more attention on them after last week’s shocking upset of the Vikings. But a look into the stats sheet shows us that Josh Allen certainly didn’t light it up in last week’s win. He only threw for 196 yards and his top wide receivers were Benjamin and Andre Holmes, who both posted three catches for 29 yards. Allen did check down to Chris Ivory a lot, as the running back had three catches for 70 yards. We’re expecting a similar passing distribution as the Bills play at Green Bay on Sunday and we’re leaning to the Under 50.5 yards for Benjamin’s receiving yards total.

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Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Raiders -2.5 (1,110)

2) Bengals +5 (952)

3) Broncos +5 (863)

4) Giants +3.5 (846)

5) Colts -1 (813)

6) Seahawks -3 (740)

Season record: 9-8-1

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SuperContest Picks - Week 4
September 29, 2018

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3

Week 4

1) Oakland -2.5 (1,110)
2) Cincinnati +5 (952)
3) Denver +5 (863)
4) N.Y. Giants +3.5 (846)
5) Indianapolis -1 (813)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Minnesota (+7) 413 L.A. Rams (-7) 201
Miami (+6.5) 428 New England (-6.5) 681
Houston (+1) 547 Indianapolis (-1) 813
Cincinnati (+5) 952 Atlanta (-5) 268
Buffalo (+9.5) 231 Green Bay (-9.5) 405
Detroit (+3) 567 Dallas (-3) 488
N.Y. Jets (+7.5) 250 Jacksonville (-7.5) 455
Tampa Bay (+3) 402 Chicago (-3) 595
Philadelphia (-4) 545 Tennessee (+4) 488
Seattle (-3) 740 Arizona (+3) 268
Cleveland (+2.5) 376 Oakland (-2.5) 1110
San Francisco ( +10) 189 L.A. Chargers (-10) 556
New Orleans (-3.5) 441 N.Y. Giants (+3.5) 846
Baltimore (+3) 516 Pittsburgh (-3) 407
Kansas City (-5) 559 Denver (+5) 863
Consensus Results - 2017 | 2016

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 0-5 4-6 40%
3 3-2 7-8 47%

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
September 28, 2018
By Micah Roberts

"The game that is generating the most interest this week is the Dolphins-Patriots game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal of his NFL Week 4 action.

It's the game that carries the most intrigue considering the 3-0 Dolphins could possibly put the 1-2 Patriots three games down in the AFC East. The Patriots opened the season as 1-to-8 favorites to win the division while the Dolphins were 10-to-1. A lot has changed in just three weeks of play.

"The sharps grabbed +7 -110 and +7 -115 with the Dolphins early the week forcing us to -6.5," Simbal said. "However, public play has still been all over the Patriots."

The Patriots have lost their last two games by double digits. The last time they lost three straight was in 2002 when they lost four straight. They've won and covered their last six at home against the Dolphins, part of the home team trend that is on an 11-1 ATS run.

"This Dolphins team is for real," said Simbal. "I think Ryan Tannehill has won something like 10 of his last 11 starts."

Action has been a little different at William Hill sports books which have seen 63 percent of their action on the Dolphins as well as 59 percent of the tickets written. They currently have the Patriots -7 EVEN just like Station Casinos, Wynn and MGM Resorts. The Westgate Superbook and South Point are at -6.5 like CG Technology books.

It pays to shop around for the best number hovering around key numbers of 3 or 7 as most bettors found out last night in the Rams' 38-31 win as 7-point favorites after originally opening -6.5. Simbal says they had a couple large wagers on the Rams that refunded and they "somehow won on the total."

"The biggest divide between Pro's and Joe's we have this week is with Philly at Tennessee," said Simbal. "Sharp money took the +4 and +3.5-flat with us pushing us to Eagles -3.5 -115. We have 21x more tickets written on the Eagles, but 3x more money on the Titans."

Up north in Reno, Marc Nelson says the Eagles are the second most public bet at his Atlantis sports book and Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says the Eagles are the No. 1 public bet between his 18 books.

Is it comedian Bill Engvall that has the signature "Here's your sign" line? Well, there it is for everyone with the Titans as a home dog. That many bettors on the same side usually works out well for the house.

Marcus Mariota (elbow) is listed as probable. Tennessee has won and covered the last two weeks as underdogs while the Eagles have failed to cover their last two.

Nelson said his top public play at the Atlantis is the Packers who are now -9.5 at home against the Bills after opening -10.5 at some places. The Bills come off one of the NFL's biggest upsets winning as 17-point underdogs at Minnesota last week.

"We had one (sharp) guy take the +10, so we moved to -9.5, but that's about it on that side," said Simbal of the Bills action.

"We've had some large action come in on the Bengals taking +5.5, +5 and +4.5," said Simbal of the Bengals game at Atlanta. "They also took the money-line (+175 now) with them and the Over which has been pushed from 48 up to 53."

William Hill books have 88 percent of their money taken in on the Bengals and also 63 percent of the tickets written. All three of the Bengals games have gone Over the total and the Falcons have shown the past two weeks to have a shaky defense, losing 43-37 at home to the Saints last week.

Rookie QB Josh Rosen makes his first career start for the 0-3 Cardinals at home against the Seahawks and wise guys have made up their minds on who they like.

"Sharps laid the -3 (-110) with Seattle," said Simbal, who moved to -3 -120 and -3 -125 on Monday. "We don't want to get off the 3."

The South Point uses exclusively flat numbers and has Seattle at -3.5 with no one running to the bet windows take the home team +3.5 which means it could easily run to -4.

The Cardinals have gone 0-4-1 ATS in their five at home against the Seahawks, but have won the past three in Seattle.

Simbal said his books have also taken some sharp action on the Lions +3 at Dallas while the parlay action has been mostly on the Cowboys.

Here's a look at the top-3 Sharp and public plays at a couple books in northern and southern Nevada:

Atlantis
Top-3 Sharp plays: Texans, Bengals, Browns
Top-3 Public plays: Packers, Eagles. Chargers

Station Casinos
Top-3 Sharp plays: Broncos, Texans, Ravens
Top-3 Public plays: Eagles, Chiefs, Seahawks

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Sunday Blitz - Week 4
September 29, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Dolphins at Patriots (-6 ½, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

One of these teams is 3-0 and it isn’t New England. Miami (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) is the leader of the AFC East after three weeks, while owning a three-game edge over the Jets, Bills, and yes -- the Patriots. The Dolphins rallied past the Raiders last week, 28-20 to cash as three-point favorites thanks to a pair of long fourth quarter touchdowns. Miami has racked up three touchdowns from scrimmage this season of 50 or more yards, while offseason acquisition Albert Wilson has hauled in a pair of scores from Ryan Tannehill.

The Patriots (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) held off the Texans in Week 1, but have gone backwards the last two weeks in road defeats at Jacksonville and Detroit. The New England defense has yielded 57 points in the past two losses, while the offense scored its fewest points last Sunday (10) with Tom Brady at quarterback since 2015. Dating back to 2009, the Patriots are 5-0 off consecutive losses, while not dropping three straight games since 2002, Brady’s second year as starting quarterback.

Miami will try to end its Foxboro hex as the Dolphins last won at Gillette Stadium in the infamous “Wildcat” game in 2008 as 12 ½-point underdogs, 38-13. Brady didn’t play in that game as he tore his ACL two weeks prior, as Miami last beat New England on the road with the four-time Super Bowl MVP in the lineup back in the 2005 season finale. However, the Patriots will look to slow down Tannehill, who is 10-1 in his past 11 starts since 2016.

Best Bet: Patriots 24, Dolphins 21

Browns at Raiders (-2 ½, 44 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

These two teams have combined for only one win, but yet this is one of the most intriguing games on the Week 4 card. Cleveland (1-1-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) won first time since 2016 in a Week 3 comeback victory over the Jets. The Browns fell behind, 14-0 only to be saved by top pick Baker Mayfield, who replaced the injured Tyrod Taylor at quarterback and led Cleveland to a near-improbable 21-17 victory as three-point favorites. The most impressive part of Cleveland’s start is covering all three games, while limiting all three opponents to 21 points or less.

The Raiders (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) had high hopes as Jon Gruden returned to the sidelines this season, but Oakland enters Week 4 as one of three winless teams in the league. In the last two weeks, the Silver and Black has held a fourth quarter lead, only to give it away late in road defeats to the Broncos and Dolphins. In fact, Oakland limited Denver and Miami to seven points in the first half, but were outscored in the second half of those games, 41-17.

Oakland is listed as a favorite for the first time this season, as 0-3 teams laying points since 2008 have compiled a 5-6 SU and 4-6-1 ATS record. The Raiders have been an excellent UNDER team by cashing in nine of the past 10 games dating back to last season, while scoring 20 points or less in seven straight contests. The Browns are making their first trip to the Black Hole since 2012 when Cleveland edged Oakland, 20-17.

Best Bet: Raiders 19, Browns 17

Saints (-3 ½, 50 ½) at Giants – 4:25 PM EST

New Orleans (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) has rebounded nicely from an opening week loss to Tampa Bay to pick up consecutive close victories over Cleveland and Atlanta. Drew Brees was responsible for five touchdowns, including the game-winning scamper in overtime, while the Saints’ quarterback threw for 396 yards and three scores. The Saints have topped the 40-point mark in two games already this season, marking the third consecutive campaign that New Orleans has reached this scoring level in multiple contests.

The Giants (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) finally broke through the win column in last Sunday’s 27-22 victory at Houston as 6 ½-point road underdogs. New York jumped out to a 20-3 lead thanks to rookie Saquon Barkley’s second touchdown of the season, while Odell Beckham, Jr. eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark for the second time in three weeks. The Giants scored more than 27 points only once last season, so the offense finally clicked last week, just in time to face a New Orleans defense that is allowing 421 yards per game, which ranks 30th in the league.

The previous two matchups between these teams in 2015 and 2016 were each decided by three points and won by the home squad. The Saints outlasted the Giants at the Superdome in 2015 by a 52-49 count as Brees and Eli Manning combined to throw 13 touchdown passes. New York picked up revenge the next season in a lower-scoring affair, 16-13 as the home team has won five straight matchups.

Best Bet: Giants 23, Saints 20

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (4-1 last week, 7-7-1 on season)
Texans +1
Lions +3
Bears -3
Titans +4
Seahawks -3

Chris David (3-2 last week, 9-6 on season)
Texans +1
Browns +2 ½
49ers +10
Steelers -3
Broncos +5

SURVIVOR PICKS

(Disclaimer: Both selected the Vikings last week, which didn’t work out too well. We will still provide selections for the rest of the season.)

Kevin Rogers (2-1)
Chargers over 49ers

Chris David (2-1)
Packers over Bills

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 2-1 this season)

OVER 38 ½ - Jaguars at Jets

The UNDER has been the preference the first three weeks, including the Broncos and Ravens putting together a low-scoring second half to cash last week. However, we’ll switch it up to a higher-scoring affair at TIAA Bank Field. The Jaguars’ offense tries to get on track after scoring only six points in a home loss to Tennessee last week. The Jets faced a tough defense last week in Cleveland, but still managed to take an early 14-0 advantage. Unfortunately, New York’s offense was shut down in the second half as the Jets posted only three points in a four-point loss. The Jets are seeing their lowest total of the season but this is a spot where both teams can score 20 points apiece and eclipse the OVER.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Cowboys’ offense has struggled to get going through three games by scoring 41 points, while coming off a road defeat at Seattle last week. Although Dallas isn’t an overwhelming public favorite in this game against Detroit, there is a strong sentiment that the Lions are in a letdown spot after upsetting the Patriots last Sunday night for their first win of the season. Last season, five teams were listed as an underdog after facing New England. In those five cases, those squads finished 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS, so Detroit is definitely worth a look as it owns a 2-0 ATS mark this season in the underdog role.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The 49ers had big expectations coming into this season with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback after he won the final five games of 2017. However, Garoppolo tore his ACL late in last Sunday’s loss at Kansas City, sidelining the San Francisco quarterback for the remainder of the season. Back in May, CG Technologies released the Chargers as a 3 ½-point favorite over the 49ers. Fast-forward to this week and the Westgate Superbook put out Los Angeles as a hefty 10 ½-point favorite thanks to the Garoppolo injury. C.J. Beathard will start at quarterback for San Francisco, as both teams come in at 1-2 on the season with this being the largest line on the Week 4 board.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Falcons have not had the best luck against the AFC recently. Dating back to the 2016 season, Atlanta has compiled an ugly 0-7 ATS record against interconference foes, which includes the famous meltdown to New England in the Super Bowl. In this span, the Falcons have lost four consecutive games to the AFC at Mercedes Benz Stadium, including defeats to the Chiefs and Chargers in 2016, followed up by shocking setbacks to the Dolphins and Bills last season. The Bengals invade Atlanta on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a loss to another NFC opponent as Cincinnati lost at Carolina last Sunday.

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Total Talk - Week 4
September 29, 2018
By Chris David

For the second consecutive week, bettors saw an 8-8 stalemate in the totals market. Players who took ‘over’ 46 in the Baltimore-Denver certainly had a gripe to be angry as the pair combined for 34 points in the first-half before closing with just seven total points in the final 30 minutes.

That was the theme for Week 3 and for the first time this season we finally saw teams cool off in the second-half. Savvy bettors playing the low side in the final 30 minutes watched the ‘under’ go 12-2-2 last week.

2018 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 3 8-8 9-7 2-12-2

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 25-23 24-24 21-25-2

2018 RESULTS - OTHER
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 3 5-3 1-1 2-1 1-0

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 7-7 8-6 6-3 2-1
Keep an Eye On

Six teams have seen the ‘over’ connect in all three of their games this season.

Kansas City is averaging 39.3 points per game, ranked first in the league. The Chiefs also own the third-worst scoring defense (30.7 PPG) and the way their going, we could see their totals reach the sixties this season especially with upcoming games at the Patriots and Rams.

Only two clubs have seen the ‘under’ start 3-0 – Arizona and Dallas. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Cardinals (6.7 PPG) and Cowboys (13.7 PPG) are ranked 32nd and 31st respectively in scoring offense. Dallas actually has a solid defense (17.7 PPG) and as bad as Arizona has looked, they’re only allowing 24.7 PPG.

There are two games with totals listed in the thirties as of Saturday morning – Jets at Jaguars and Seahawks at Cardinals. Through three weeks, we’ve had two totals this season close under 40 and the ‘under’ went 2-0 in those contests, rather easily too.

A popular “Total Talk” feature that I’ve touched on in the past focuses on a ‘Thursday Night Total’ system and it has started 2-0 this season. VI expert Matt Blunt covered it in his weekly Hot & Not report. The system calls for finding out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and playing the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. The Browns-Raiders game would fit this week’s angle.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 4 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Cincinnati at Atlanta: 48 to 53 ½
Seattle at Arizona: 37 to 39
New Orleans at New York: 49 to 51

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 4 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Miami at New England: Over 93%
Seattle at Arizona: Over 92%
Cleveland at Oakland: Over 91%
New Orleans at N.Y. Giants: Over 90%
Cincinnati at Atlanta: Over 82%

Divisional Matchups

Miami at New England: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series. This year’s New England squad has looked very sluggish offensively (19 PPG) through three games but it has shown the ability to dice up Miami at Foxboro, averaging 30.3 PPG in the last 10 encounters versus the Dolphins from Gillette Stadium.

Houston at Indianapolis: The ‘under’ has connected in four of the last five meetings between the pair and based on what we’ve seen so far offensively from both the Colts (20 PPG) and Texans (19.7 PPG) this season, it’s hard to justify an ‘over’ lean. Despite the poor production, the books are expecting points to be scored with this week's total (47).

Seattle at Arizona: One of the lowest totals on the board in Week 4 and the last three divisional games between these teams played in the desert all went ‘under’ the number. Arizona only averaged 9.3 PPG in those games and this year’s offense (6.7 PPG) is ranked last in the league. Rookie QB Josh Rosen will get the start for the Cardinals on Sunday.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: (See Below)

Kansas City at Denver: (See Below)

NFC vs. AFC

We’ve had solid back-and-forth total results (7-7) in the first 14 non-conference games this season and Week 4 offers up a quartet of AFC-NFC matchups.

Cincinnati at Atlanta: This total has been juiced up for this matchup and it’s hard to make a case for the low side. Looking above, you can see that games played inside this season have been strong ‘over’ bets (6-3) and the Falcons (2-0) have contributed to that mark. The Atlanta defense has been decimated with key injuries and it’s hard to imagine them holding anybody down as the season progresses. The Bengals offense (29.7 PPG) has had a nice start to the season and they’ve been scoring TDs (11) instead of FGs (4). Cincy has watched the ‘over’ cash in all three games this season.

Buffalo at Green Bay: The Packers have watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 this season and the lack of defense (27.7 PPG) has certainly helped that record. Buffalo is coming off a big upset and even though they’ve posted 27 and 20 points the last two weeks, the offense is only averaging 246 yards per game (31st).

Philadelphia at Tennessee: Low total (41) posted for this matchup and we haven’t seen much pop from either offense this season but they’ve both had to deal with QB issues. Normally I would lean to the ‘under’ based on the form, but the Philadelphia defense looks like a different unit on the road and that’s help produce a 6-2 ‘over’ mark in their last eight contests as visitors.

San Francisco at L.A. Chargers: The Chargers were a great ‘under’ bet last season (11-5) and that was attributed to a very solid defense. This year’s unit has been hampered by injuries and they’re the second worst scoring defense (31 PPG) in the league. That weak production has helped the Bolts go ‘over’ in all of their first three games. San Francisco will start C.J. Beathard at QB after losing Jimmy Garoppolo for the season last week. Beathard is clearly a drop-off at the position and the line (LA -10 ½) reflects that. Make a note that San Francisco watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 in its last five games against AFC foes and it’s averaged 29 PPG.

Under the Lights

For the second straight week, we watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in the primetime games. Overall, the ‘under’ has gone 6-5 on the season and the most recent night games were wild shootouts which includes Thursday’s back-and-forth outcome between the Vikings and Rams.

SNF – Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The recent trend in this series has watched the last two meetings in Pennsylvania go ‘over’ easily (39-38, 31-27) while the two outcomes in Maryland (26-9, 21-14) were ‘under’ tickets. Even though the offensive units for the Ravens (32.3 PPG) and Steelers (29.3 PPG) have been lighting up the scoreboard this season, we haven’t seen a total (50 ½) in this neighborhood in any of the previous 30 meetings.

MNF – Kansas City at Denver: The Chiefs-Over combination has been golden for bettors this season and they’ll be pressing the action for this matchup. Based on the recent outcomes in this series, it’s hard to argue against it with the Chiefs winning the last five against the Broncos and the ‘over’ has gone 4-0-1 in those games.

Fearless Predictions

The late score in the Dolphins-Raiders game kept us out of the black and the teaser was upended early. Still, a couple easy winners kept the deficit low ($10) and the overall bankroll ($175) is still up after 12 wagers. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New Orleans-New York 52
Best Under: Buffalo-Green Bay 44 ½
Best Team Total: Under Bills 17 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 46 Cincinnati-Atlanta
Under 54 Tampa Bay-Chicago
Over 33 ½ Philadelphia-Tennessee

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Gridiron Angles - Week 4
September 29, 2018
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Saints are 10-0 ATS (5.9 ppg) since Dec 23, 2012 on the road coming off a game where they scored at least seven points more than expected.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-12 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 as a home favorite coming off a loss where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-8 OU (-10.3 ppg) since Oct 15, 2017 following a game where Melvin Gordon rushed for at least 75 yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-9.6 ppg) since Dec 14, 2014 coming off a win where they allowed at least 400 total yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Titans are 15-0-1 OU (10.5 ppg) since Oct 01, 2006 as a dog coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Ravens are 11-0 ATS (+7.27 ppg) on the road off a win as a favorite in which their opponent scored first.

NFL USER TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-12 ATS since 2001 playing at home when the travel to face the Chargers next game.

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Trends to Watch - October
September 28, 2018
By Marc Lawrence

he first month of the 2018 NFL season in the history books it’s on to October where certain teams shine while others struggle – at least in the pointspread wars. Here is a composite of possible ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ teams throughout the month of Halloween.

HOME TEAMS

Good: Pittsburgh 37-17 ATS

For whatever reason, this is the month the Steelers start to put it together as a team. There are a few more questions about this group this season as we head into October and we will find out against Atlanta (10/7) and Cleveland (10/28).

Keep an eye on (Good): Cleveland 20-13 ATS

The Browns have been getting points for years, even at home and made themselves a good bet. Will the same be true against rival Baltimore (10/7) and the L.A. Chargers (10/14) this season?

Keep an eye on (Bad): Cincinnati 20-30 ATS, Jacksonville 14-25 ATS, Seattle 17-28 ATS, Tampa Bay 21-35 ATS

Cincinnati is in the most unique situation since they are the only team in this group with more than one home game. The Bengals could conceivably fail in all three contests versus Miami (10/7), Pittsburgh (10/14) and Tampa Bay (10/28), but chances are they get at least one cover.

Jacksonville should be in a pretty good spot with only Houston at home on the 21st. The same is true of the Buccaneers who host Cleveland (10/21).

Seattle has arguably the toughest task taking on division rival the L.A. Rams (10/7)

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta 30-20 ATS, Carolina 28-18 ATS, New England 32-20 ATS, N.Y. Giants 30-18 ATS

Atlanta has just one roadie and it's a nasty one, at Pittsburgh (10/7).

Carolina has back-to-back away contests this month, but at least the travel will not be bad, venturing to Washington first on the 14th and a week later in Philadelphia.

New England's 0-2 SU & ATS away from home to start 2018, but if they don't go 2-0 at Chicago (10/21) and at Buffalo (10/29), then you know something is wrong in Patriots land.

The G-Men will have a physical affair at Carolina on the first Sunday of the month and 15 days later they will be in Atlanta.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona 16-29 ATS, Seattle 18-29 ATS, Tampa Bay 18-29 ATS

Only one true road contest for the Seahawks who will be trying to change their fortune in the Motor City on the 28th.

Off a bye week, the Bucs have toughie at the Falcons (10/14), who as mentioned cover spreads at home. If Ryan Fitzpatrick is still starting, he'll face one of his many former teams in Cincinnati (10/28).

Arizona might catch a break with no Jimmy G. in Frisco (10/7) but it will be no such luck when they travel to land of 10,000 lakes really starting to get cold.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): L.A. Rams 22-12 ATS

The Rams have a cumbersome three-game road trip to start the month, but are thought to be favored and have likely wagering success at Seattle, at Denver and at Santa Clara, perhaps covering twice. They will be a favorite against Green Bay on the last Sunday of October.

Bad: Cincinnati 13-26 ATS

The Bengals are iffy to be favored even at home against the Steelers (10/14) but will be handing out points to the Dolphins (10/14) and the Bucs (10/28) in the Queen City and history shows that is a scary proposition.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit 14-25 ATS, Jacksonville 11-21 ATS, Seattle 17-30 ATS, Tampa Bay 16-29 ATS

Detroit will be favored vs. Seattle (10/28) and chances are in the same role when Aaron Rodgers visits on the first Sunday of the month.

The Jaguars will be handing out points to the Texans at home on the 21st. But we will take a wait see approach at Dallas (10/21) and with a trip to London a week later against the Eagles.

Tampa Bay will have one favorite role, against the Browns on 21st.

With the Seahawks not the same team, not even a trip to London to face the Raiders guarantees Seattle will be a favorite this month.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Philadelphia 24-10 ATS

This is nothing more than a maybe, doing battle at Jacksonville across the pond.

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina 31-16 ATS, Chicago 33-20 ATS, N.Y. Giants 24-15 ATS

The Panthers will be a pooch when they are in the City of Brotherly Love (10/21) and depending what oddsmakers think, they could receive digits against the Redskins (10/14).

With the Bears defense, they could be a dangerous dog at Miami (10/14) off a bye and at home the following week versus the Brady Bunch.

Eli Manning and friends will be handed points against Cam's crew in Charlotte (10/7) and on short notice in Jersey vs. Philly (10/11). They will have 11 days to prepare to face Matt Ryan in Atlanta.

Bad: Pittsburgh 14-30 ATS

Potential bad spot for Steelers when they visit Cincinnati in the middle of the month (10/14).

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): N.Y. Giants 25-16 ATS, Pittsburgh 26-14 ATS

Big Blue has two NFC East battles, but both are on short rest. On the 11th versus the Eagles and the Redskins on the 28th.

For Coach Tomlin's troops, see the Bengals just below and they have the Brownies in the Steel City on the 28th.

Bad: Cincinnati 13-30 ATS

We have mentioned Cincy facing Pittsburgh several times. We just did not share this Bengals record.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle 18-27 ATS

Pete Carroll's crew is in several negative spots this month and they get piled on playing the Rams (10/7).

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Value Plays - Week 4
September 28, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 4 Value Plays of the Week

Week 4 of the NFL season got off to an exciting start, with the LA Rams maintaining their perfect start to the season with a 38-31 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams won that one thanks to a career night from quarterback Jared Goff who threw for 465 yards in the win. The rest of the league is now playing catch-up to the Rams, which we are taking into consideration with our value plays this week.

There are some big games on the schedule in Week 4 and some potential plays that we think could add some money to your bankroll, so let’s get right to the picks for each of the games listed and all odds, props and futures for it sponsored by YouWager.eu

Green Bay Packers (-9) vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills delivered the upset of the week last Sunday with a win over the Minnesota Vikings, but I think that is one of the very few bright spots that they are going to have this season. Had it not been for that win, I think the bookies would have had the spread a good deal larger than what it is right now. Sure, the Packers have not been entirely convincing to start the year and there are dome concerns about the state of Aaron Rodgers knee, but does anyone really think that the Bills are going to head into Lambeau Field and come away with the win? I think the Packers win this one by double digits, covering the spread at odds of -110.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (OVER 53 ½)

The Atlanta Falcons offense has come to life over the last couple of weeks after stalling in Week 1 against the Eagles, yet they have gone just 1-1 in those two games. The problem with the Falcons is that the defense is not able to hold up their end of the bargain, particularly in the secondary, where they have been hammered by injuries. The Falcons will have their hands full against the Bengals this weekend, especially if AJ Green is ready to go. Reports suggest that he will be, so look for the Bengals to take some shots downfield. This is one that could turn into a shootout, so let’s take the OVER at odds of -110.

Houston Texans (ML) at Indianapolis Colts

This is one of those games where I am going on a hunch play more than anything else, so it goes without saying that this one is a little bit risky. The Texans have started the season winless and have also been unable to cover the spread in any of those games. They have had very little joy in the past when playing in Indianapolis, winning just twice in 16 attempts. There really is little here to suggest that the Texans will be able to go on the road and come away with the win, yet I have a sneaking suspicion that they will. This is a better team than their record suggests, and I think they are due for a breakout game. I am on the Texans SU at odds of +110.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (OVER 54 ½)

We have all made the mistake of getting a little too carried away by a team after just a few short weeks of the season, only for it all to blow up in our faces. It may be a little too early to be all in with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, but I am going to be riding them until they give me reason not to. This is a team that is lighting things up on the offensive side of the football, with Mahomes breaking record with his TD passes in the early going. The Chiefs D gas not been able to live up to what the offense is doing, which means we are getting some high-scoring Chiefs games. I expect more of the same this weekend at odds of -110.

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Top Total Plays - Week 4
September 28, 2018
By Bookmaker

By Kyle Markus

NFL Top Totals Plays Of Week 4

The Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings began Week 4 in style as they played a shootout at the L.A. Coliseum. Even though the scoring total was high, the teams easily zoomed past it in an entertaining shootout.

That was the first game of the week and another example of all the high-octane offenses that are currently dotting the league. That firepower is something to keep in mind when the scoring totals are dissected heading into the rest of the slate of games on Sunday and Monday.

Here is a look at some of the best total plays in Week 4 of the NFL regular season in NFL odds.

Odds Analysis

The New England Patriots are only 1-2 on the season and the offense has been clunkier than usual. The Miami Dolphins are a surprising 3-0 on the year and could really turn some heads with a win. The scoring total is 48 points in this matchup. Look for the Patriots to get back on track. The “over” is the choice as New England is going to put up some big numbers.

The Houston Texans head to Indianapolis for a matchup against the Colts. The scoring total is 47 points but that seems high. Indy quarterback Andrew Luck does not look 100 percent with his shoulder while Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is struggling. The “under” is the pick.

The Buffalo Bills head to Green Bay to face the Packers. The scoring total is interesting. It is listed at 45 points. The Bills’ offense looked really good last week in Minnesota but it seems unlikely that happens again. Look for Buffalo to lay and egg which will contribute to the “under” hitting in this matchup.

The New York Jets are hitting the road to face the stingy Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The scoring total is set low at 38.5 points, which isn’t a surprise. Look for the Jaguars’ defense to dominate, and by forcing multiple turnovers they will give the offense the ball in great field position. The Jacksonville defense will probably score a touchdown itself, too, to help the “over” hit.

The New Orleans Saints are facing off against the New York Giants. The Saints have a dynamic offense but it’s not always as potent on the road. The scoring total is set at 50.5 points. The Giants don’t have a super explosive group and wouldn’t mind keeping the pace slow. New Orleans will have some hiccups and the “under” will be the right wager.

The “Monday Night Football” matchup is an intriguing one. The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL but have to hit the road to face off against the Denver Broncos and their stingy defense. The scoring total in this one is listed at 55.5 points. While Patrick Mahomes has been fantastic early in the year, the Kansas City quarterback may have a little bit of trouble in this one with Denver’s pass rush. The Broncos offense is not explosive so they won’t score a bunch. The “under” is the pick for this matchup.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The best wager on the scoring total of Week 4 resides in the Buccaneers-Bears game in Chicago. Tampa Bay has been great offensively through the first few weeks but is facing off against a good Bears defense. Additionally, Chicago is going to shorten the game by running the ball and using short passes.

The scoring total is listed at 46.5 points because the Buccaneers know how to get big chunk plays, but look for the Chicago defense to hold tough. The “under” is the pick and is the one bettors should take with the most confidence in NFL odds.

NFL ATS Pick: : Bears-Buccaneers go “under” on the scoring total in Week 4

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NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/27/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/23/2018 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/16/2018 17-8-0 68.00% +41.00
09/13/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/09/2018 15-10-1 60.00% +20.00
09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals...............49-33-1.....59.75%.....+63.50


NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

09/27/2018.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
09/23/2018.............6 - 4...................+8.00....................2 - 4...............-12.00..............-4.00
09/20/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1...............-5.50................-11.00
09/16/2018.............5 - 2..................+14.00...................3 - 2...............+4.00..............+18.00
09/13/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1................-5.50...............-11.00
09/09/2018.............4 - 4...................-2.00.....................8 - 3...............+23.50............+21.50
09/06/2018.............1 - 0..................+5.00.....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00

Totals....................17 - 12................+19.00..................15 - 11..............+14.50............+33.50

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Dolphins' odds improve, but there are plenty of NFL Week 4 bets on favored Patriots
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots haven't shown championship form of late, as evidenced by the pointspread for Week 4 at home vs. Miami. The Pats opened -9.5 and are down to -6.5.

NFL Week 4 Sunday includes a key AFC East clash, particularly for a perennial Super Bowl contender off to a slow start this year. We check in on the action and line movement, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – Open: -9; Move: Off; Move: -7; Move: -6.5

Defending AFC champion New England dropped its last two games and didn’t look very good in doing so. After getting dominated at Jacksonville, the Patriots (1-2 SU and ATS) lost to Detroit 26-10 as a 7-point road chalk last week.

Miami actually stands atop the AFC East and is delivering for bettors too, at 3-0 SU and ATS. Last week, the Dolphins held off Oakland 28-20 laying 3 points at home.

The Superbook initially opened New England -9.5 last Sunday night, an hour or so before the Pats kicked off at Detroit. The line was then taken down during that game and rehung Monday morning at a significantly adjusted -7.

“Tickets are about 3/1 on the Patriots, but the line has come down to 6.5,” Murray said of pointspread activity for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. “The Dolphins can open up a three-game lead in the AFC East with a win here. I think the public is still skeptical of Miami because it has played such a weak schedule.”


Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4

Cincinnati got out of the gate with a pair of 34-23 victories, at Indianapolis and against Baltimore, cashing in both. But the Bengals (2-1 SU and ATS) backed off a bit in the scoring department in Week 3, losing at Carolina 31-21 as a 2.5-point underdog.

Atlanta’s high-octane offense got back in order the past two games, but its defense gave up a mountain of points in Week 3. The Falcons (1-2 SU and ATS) went off as 1.5-point home chalk against New Orleans and lost in overtime, 43-37.

“Sharp money came in on the Bengals on Thursday and pushed this number from 5.5 to as low as 3.5 in some spots. We held it at 4,” Murray said of action on another 1 p.m. ET start. “We have liability on the Falcons from a $30,000 bet on them earlier in the week.”


New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: -9; Move: -8; Move: -7.5

Jacksonville looked like a world beater in a Week 2 home victory over New England, then looked just the opposite in Week 3 against a much lesser opponent. The Jaguars (2-1 SU and ATS) were 10-point home faves against Tennessee, but mustered just two field goals in a 9-6 slog of a loss.

New York and rookie quarterback Sam Darnold were brimming with optimism after a Week 1 wipeout of Detroit, but that’s been tempered by a pair of SU and ATS setbacks. In Week 3, the Jets (1-2 SU and ATS) fell to Cleveland 21-17 as a 3-point pup, becoming the first team to lose to the Browns since Christmas Eve 2016.

“Not much to report in this game,” Murray said, implying the line adjustment was more of a market move for the 1 p.m. ET matchup. “The Jaguars will be a very popular teaser option for players looking to cross 7 and 3. They will also be included in many moneyline parlays, despite their showing last week in a loss to the Titans.”


Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -3

As noted above, Cleveland is coming off its first victory since the 2016-17 season, a stretch that included going 0-16 SU and 4-12 ATS last year. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield came on for the injured Tyrod Taylor during the Week 3 Thursday nighter, helping engineer a 21-17 victory for the 3-point favorite Browns (1-1-1 SU), who have cashed in all three games this year.

Mayfield will get his first NFL start in this 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff.

Meanwhile, Oakland is still seeking its first victory of the season, in the second run of Jon Gruden as coach. The Raiders (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Miami as 3-point ‘dogs last week and left with a 28-20 loss.

“Straight-bet tickets on this game are about 5/1 in favor of the 0-3 Raiders, despite the Browns’ impressive second-half comeback win over the Jets and the Browns having three extra days to prepare for this game,” Murray said. “The Raiders were also the No. 1 choice in the SuperContest this week, which again is strange for an 0-3 team. Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The book will need Cleveland!”

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NFL Essentials - Week 4
Tony Mejia

Sunday

Miami at New England (-7/48.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Dolphins have a chance to go up three games on the Patriots in the AFC East inside the first month with a victory here, joining on the Rams in establishing that large a lead. With the offense routinely breaking off chunk yardage via speed and a few perfectly executed gadget plays that have paid off handsomely, the Patriots have to be concerned coming off last Sunday night’s disaster where they looked slow and disjointed. Pats safety Patrick Chung and defensive end Trey Flowers are both expected to play, which should give the defense teeth it didn’t have in Detroit.

Tackle Marcus Cannon should also play to help give Tom Brady more time to operate, but it remains to be seen if Josh Gordon will be able to improve a mediocre receiving corps due to Julian Edelman’s absence since he’s still learning the offense and working his way back from the hamstring injury that contributed to the Browns cutting him loose. The Patriots had just 209 yards of total offense against the Lions but will have Rob Gronkowski out there despite an ankle issue that’s been bugging him for the last week-plus. New England has an eight-game winning streak working and Miami hasn’t won in Foxborough since 2009, so history is playing a role in this spread. It was colder overnight than the Dolphins have grown used to in sunny South Florida, but conditions for the game will be ideal with highs in the low 70s. In other words, bitter cold won’t be a built-in advantage for New England this early in the season.

Houston at Indianapolis (PK/48), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck have only resembled their best pre-injury versions in occasional flashes as both appear to be laboring. Luck’s arm is healthy enough to get things done in front of him but he struggles to stretch the field. That contributed to 209 yards of total offense in the loss to Philly as Luck managed a minuscule 4.9 yards per completion. He won’t have tight end Jack Doyle as a weapon to lean on but will have his offensive line healthier than it has been this season. Luck came up one pass short of pulling off an upset of defending champion Philly, so whoever wins this duel is going to feel like October offers countless possibilities. The world won’t feel quite as conquerable for the loser here, especially if it’s Houston remaining winless.

Watson is moving around better but accuracy remains an issue. Throwing a last-gasp “meaningless” TD pass in last week’s loss to the Giants not only delivered the ‘over,’ but helped his offense see that he’s out there battling and trying to figure things out. Guard Senio Kelemete couldn’t go last week due to knee pain and is a game-time decision. A receiving corps that has been dealing with hamstring issues is getting healthier, so DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Sammie Coates should be more productive and rookie Keke Coutee finally gets a chance to make an impact. Houston has lost 14 of 16 in Indianapolis against its AFC South rival and has dropped 10 straight outright. The Texans haven’t even covered a spread since Nov. 27 of last season, .

Cincinnati at Atlanta (-4/53), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Even though he’s reportedly close to returning, Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (knee) isn’t ready to so today, so Tevin Coleman will again get the work. Despite losing to New Orleans in OT, last week’s developments were largely positive since Matt Ryan threw five touchdowns and found himself a shiny new weapon in Calvin Ridley. Steve Sarkisian hasn’t gotten a lot right since being hired to run the Falcons offense but last week’s work was impressive. Ridley’s emergence means the Bengals can’t key in on Julio Jones, so expect the Falcons to build on a run of nine touchdowns over the past two games.

Cincinnati is seeing Todd Boyd emerge in similar fashion as Andy Dalton has utilized the respect A.J Green commands as a weapon to get him and speedy John Ross more touches. Green came off the injury report after dealing with groin soreness earlier in the week, while Dre Kirkpatrick will also be in the mix after overcoming back pain and is looking forward to reuniting with fellow ‘Bama products and former teammate Mohamed Sanu, calling this matchup “personal.” Linebacker Preston Brown is also back, while Atlanta will have pass rusher Takk McKinley back. The Falcons’ attrition on defense has been well-documented and now includes DE Derrick Shelby (groin) and Justin Bethel (knee) missing games since neither will participate here.

Buffalo at Green Bay (-9.5/44) 1 p.m. ET, CBS: This game features banged-up superstars playing to their strengths in order to help their teams avoid disastrous starts. LeSean McCoy is suffering from cracked ribs and has been limited in practice but should play, splitting carries with Chris Ivory. Aaron Rodgers will take every snap he needs to but isn’t doing much moving around on his injured knee. The Packers couldn’t get out of their own way in Landover last week, losing to the ‘Skins due to a drop epidemic from Rodgers’ receiving corps and a defense that got pushed around all day. The injury news isn’t great either since Bryan Bulaga (back) is a game-time decision and guard Justin McGray (shoulder) has been ruled out, which means Rodgers will have to deal with suspect offensive line play. That’s nothing new but disconcerting since the franchise isn’t moving fluidly. The expectation is Bulaga will play to give an offensive line that has already surrendered 12 sacks a fighting chance to block the disruptive Bills’ defensive front. Buffalo excelled in harassing Vikings QB Kirk Cousins into miscues and will have Shaq Lawson and Trent Murphy on board to help make life difficult for Rodgers on a day where the hope is the rain will stay away.

Rookie Josh Allen delivered at a high level in his first career start, executing a game plan that was designed to take advantage of Minnesota being aggressive and underestimating his poise. He’s still going to have the element of surprise at his disposal here, but it remains to be seen whether last week was a fluke or if he’s capable of accurately hitting his mark and applying touch to his passes, both big concerns. The Packers won’t be as stacked defensively as they’ve been, having lost DT Muhammad Wilkerson to IR last week and potentially missing LB Nick Perry, CB Kevin King and safety Josh Jones.

Detroit at Dallas (-3/44), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Jason Garrett looks more and more like a lame-duck coach by the quarter. Despite averaging six yards per carry, the Cowboys’ offense has been anemic. Dax Prescott has already been sacked five times in a game twice this season, something that happened to him only once in his first two years under center. That reflects poorly on the suspect offensive line, but don’t lose sight of the fact receivers have struggled to get open, forcing Prescott to hold it longer. Cole Beasley will shake off an ankle injury to play today, but there hasn’t been much to get excited about from a group that badly needs someone like rookie Michael Gallup to take off.

Rookie Kerryon Johnson was a spark plug for the Lions last Sunday night, becoming the first Lions running back in 70 games to top the 100-yard mark, snapping a streak that dates back to Thanksgiving 2013. He’s capable of catching the ball out of the backfield, but the presence of Theo Riddick and LeGarrette Blount means the Auburn product won’t take the job full-time but certainly serves to upgrade the position. Matthew Stafford should be able to take advantage here and benefits from not having to match wits with standout Cowboys LB Sean Lee, who has long been the lynchpin of the Dallas defense. He’s out 2-4 weeks due to a bum hamstring, so the Lions have an opportunity to win outright and get back to .500 after suffering demoralizing losses to the Jets and 49ers.

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (-7/39) 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Jags RB Leonard Fournette has been a full participant in practice this week and will return to at least split carries with T.J. Yeldon. After not throwing the ball downfield against Tennessee following a breakout game against New England, Blake Bortles is counting on Fournette’s return to loosen up the Jets defense so he can take some shots against their secondary, which comes in vulnerable since safeties Doug Middleton and Marcus Maye are nursing injuries and CB Buster Skrine is working his way back from a knee injury suffered against the Browns.

Speaking of which, there are probably some bruised egos to deal with if you’re New York’s defense, getting picked apart by a rookie coming in cold off the bench. Maybe that’s why Jets safety Jamal Adams was so quick to admit that the staff hadn’t prepared players to contend with Mayfield, focusing solely on Tyrod Taylor. Rookie Sam Darold will be facing a Jags defense that comes in close to full strength, but the absence of rookie corner D.J. Hayden was felt against Tennessee and could factor in a once again. Temperatures on the field will feel like they’re in the high 90s, so conditioning and stamina over four quarters should be major factors.

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-3/46.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Mitchell Trubisky has been the subject of criticism since the Bears had a tougher time than they should’ve against overmatched Arizona due to how many plays last year’s first-round pick left out on the field. It’s too early to call for Chase Daniel, especially given how vital Trubisky’s development is for the future of the franchise, but an offensive mind like Matt Nagy doesn’t want his defense to do the heavy lifting in carrying the Bears into contention even though they’re definitely equipped to. In this one, Chicago needs to produce offense to pull off a win since corners Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper will be sidelined by hamstring injuries.

That’s good news for Ryan Fitzpatrick as he looks to stretch his NFL-record streak of 400-yard passing game to four. He’s getting the nod ahead of Jameis Winston, though Tampa Bay isn’t publicly admitting it. The Bucs are hoping that Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin continue to create explosive pass plays, but the offensive line will need to buy time for plays to develop downfield, so count on an interesting chess match there. Tampa Bay will see first-round pick Vita Vea, a powerful defensive tackle, make his debut after missing most of the preseason with a calf injury. Be advised that it’s expected to rain most of the day in Chicago but the forecast is that large portions of this game should be unaffected.

Philadelphia (-3/41) at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Titans have given up just 50 points over their first three games and should give Carson Wentz some trouble with their aggressive schemes. The presence of new head coach Mike Vrabel and coordinator Dean Pees has immediately impacted the defense they’re playing in Nashville since the new coaching staff is making good use of all their athleticism. LB Kemalei Correa and safety Kendrick Lewis are going to play, so the unit will be at full strength.

Philly’s offensive line surrendered five sacks of Wentz in his debut against the Colts. Wentz’s debut was rocky all the way around, but he did find a new tight end to mold in rookie Dallas Goedert, getting him his first pro touchdown. He also engineered a go-ahead scoring drive in the fourth, making it a wildly successful debut, albeit bumpy. A virus going around the Eagles facility may keep Alshon Jeffery from making his return. Marcus Mariota’s elbow prevents him from throwing much, but he’s still able to move the offense by using his legs and making solid reads in running the spread option alongside Derrick Henry , who has been quiet of late. Philly will have its bellcow, RB Jay Ajayi, back to anchor a ground attack that also has Corey Clement available but will again be missing versatile veteran Darren Sproles. If Mariota is unable to finish for any reason, newly acquired Austin Davis will take over.

Seattle (-3/40) at Arizona, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: The Seahawks earned their first win of the season against Dallas by utilizing Russell Wilson’s ingenuity, a strong running game and a stifling defense that grows empowered by a blissfully conspiratorial 12th Man. Same recipe, new faces. Chris Carson can be this team’s Marshawn Lynch if he stays healthy and Earl Thomas can guide this group as long as he’s still in town. It was easy to be engaged last week against his hometown Cowboys that he wanted to be traded to. We’ll see whether winless Arizona warrants the same intensity. Linebacker K.J. Wright is out again and pass rusher Dion Jordan is questionable, but the Seahawks are otherwise pretty healthy on both sides of the ball.

Seattle hopes to make Josh Rosen’s starting debut as forgettable as the Bears made his first appearance, which came in crunch time in relief of an ineffective Sam Bradford. Chicago came after him relentlessly and Rosen didn’t handle it well, so we’ll see how he fares with a full week of normal reps and preparation with the knowledge he’d be starting. Tackle Andre Smith is a game-time decision while WR Larry Fitzgerald should be available to help play safety valve despite not being 100 percent. The Cards are going to need their defensive front to play a large role here and expect Robert Nkemdiche, Corey Peters and Olsen Pierre to be available despite being listed as questionable.

Cleveland at Oakland (-3/44.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: The Raiders haven’t been able to establish a pass rush since trading Khalil Mack and have ran out of gas in the second half of games. Oakland has been outscored 37-3 in the fourth quarter of its three losses this season and have been unable to cover when it counts or move the ball effectively. Part of the issue is the continued lack of chemistry between Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, who haven’t grown like they were expected to. Tackle Donald Penn, who has been in concussion protocol, has been cleared and will play, but the Raiders have major concerns in the secondary since they’ve been victimized by big plays and will again be missing suspended corner Daryl Worley, serving the last of a four-game suspension. Safety Karl Joseph won’t play due to a hamstring, which is the same issue rendering veteran Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie a game-time decision.

The Browns are looking to build off their first win in years and made the right choice in sticking with rookie Baker Mayfield after he delivered the goods when Tyrod Taylor got banged up. This will be his first road start, but anyone who has watched him work in college or in his brief pro career can assure you that he won’t be rattled by the Black Hole or Jon Gruden’s sideline glares. If he gets comfortable, the Browns could win outright in order to improve to 4-0 ATS. Taylor will be available to back up Mayfield, while the defense will be bolstered by the availability of safety Jabrill Peppers and LBs Christian Kirksey and Emmanuel Ogbah.

San Francisco at L.A. Chargers (-10/46), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: After a tough 35-23 loss in the “Battle for L.A.” at the Coliseum saw them get outclassed, the Chargers again look to prove they’re a resilient group under Anthony Lynn. After last season’s near-misses, they rallied to nearly make the playoffs, so this year’s group will look to try and build on a favorable schedule over the next four weeks that will see them at “home” in Carson. While the advantage may not be meaningful – there will likely be more 49ers fans in the house today and more Raiders fans next week – not facing an undefeated league power should aid the cause considering their losses have come against the Chiefs and Rams. Keenan Allen will play through knee pain after not practicing most of the week, while Travis Benjamin (foot) will join the receiving corps for the first time. Up front, tackle Joe Barksdale (knee) won’t play but counterpart Russell Okung will.

San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss in Kansas City and is done for the season. He was off to a rough start, but considering how much of an investment the 49ers made to get his services, this is a disaster. The tune 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is singing is ‘next man up,’ which is really all he can do but sounds hollow given how committed his offense was to Jimmy G. Beathard played at Iowa and had some nice moments last season but looked best suited for a backup role. We’ll see what he does with this opportunity. With Matt Breida and Alfred Morris both cleared to participate after knee injuries, Beathard will have his ground game to help ease him in.

New Orleans (-3/53) at N.Y. Giants, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: Drew Brees reconnected with Cameron Meredith, who is now ready to contribute after getting back to full strength from being limited most of the preseason. That gives the Saints yet another option in addition to Mark Ingram, who is serving out the last of a four-game suspension. The loaded Saints have been dominating through force-feeding Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas but will now be able to spread the ball around even more, which should make Brees even more formidable. Since the defense has looked so suspect in losing to Tampa and hanging on for tight wins against Cleveland and Atlanta, another shootout is expected here.

The Giants won't have Olivier Vernon to help rush Wade and corner Eli Apple is set to miss another game, but DT Damon "Snacks" Harrison and LB Connor Barwin will play through knee injuries. The new-look offensive line got a game together last week and helped give Eli Manning a chance to get his key playmakers involved, Saquon Barkley has already shown he can break one whenever he touches the ball, while receivers Odell Beckham, Jr. and Sterling Shephard should be able to take advantage as Barkley becomes more consistent.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3/51), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC: The Steelers have been carved up by opposing QBs and rank 28th in pass defense since Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick each had big games against their zone coverage. You can stretch the field on them, which gives Joe Flacco an opportunity to continue his impressive start. Even Cleveland’s offensive success in Week 1 came on passes over the top to ultimately force OT. The Ravens have scored touchdowns the first 12 times they reached the red zone, becoming the first NFL team to ever do so. The addition of TE Hayden Hurst, who debuts after dealing with a foot issue, provides another big target that Flacco can utilize in the end zone.

The Steelers aren’t far behind Baltimore, ranking third in red-zone efficiency despite Le’Veon Bell sitting out, which is a credit to the team’s offensive line. Tackle Marcus Gilbert and guard David DeCastro have been banged up with nagging injuries but have been cleared to participate. JuJu Smith-Schuster, dealing with an abdominal strain, will play and make life easier for James Conner as he continues to fill in for the absent Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers have won its last 13 night games and is 10-0-1 against the AFC North. Baltimore has dropped 24 of the last 33 in Pittsburgh.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/27/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/23/2018 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/16/2018 17-8-0 68.00% +41.00
09/13/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/09/2018 15-10-1 60.00% +20.00
09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals...............49-33-1.....59.75%.....+63.50


NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

09/27/2018.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
09/23/2018.............6 - 4...................+8.00....................2 - 4...............-12.00..............-4.00
09/20/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1...............-5.50................-11.00
09/16/2018.............5 - 2..................+14.00...................3 - 2...............+4.00..............+18.00
09/13/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1................-5.50...............-11.00
09/09/2018.............4 - 4...................-2.00.....................8 - 3...............+23.50............+21.50
09/06/2018.............1 - 0..................+5.00.....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00

Totals....................17 - 12................+19.00..................15 - 11..............+14.50............+33.50



SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BUF at GB 01:00 PM
BUF +8.5
O 43.5

CIN at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL -3.5
O 52.0

NYJ at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC -7.5
U 40.5

PHI at TEN 01:00 PM
TEN +3.0
U 41.5

TB at CHI 01:00 PM
CHI -3.0
O 46.0

HOU at IND 01:00 PM
IND +1.0
U 48.0

MIA at NE 01:00 PM
MIA +6.5
U 50.5

DET at DAL 01:00 PM
DAL -2.5
U 43.5


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MORE LATER FOR LATE GAMES..............GOOD LUCK !