Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Steelers @ Browns— Since re-joining the NFL in 1999, Browns started season 0-1 18 out of 19 years; they’re 3-12 vs spread in last 15 Week 1 home games. Steelers won their last six games with Cleveland, taking last three by 3-3-4 points- they won four of last six meetings here, with three of four wins by 16+ points. Since 2015, Pitt is 14-9 vs spread as a road favorite- under is 23-7-1 in their last 31 road games. Browns are 4-15-1 vs spread in last 20 games as home underdogs; under is 12-3 in their last 15 home games. Pitt lost five of last seven road openers; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11. Steelers had a special teams TD in both series games LY. Haley is Cleveland’s new OC; he had same job for Steelers the last six years.

49ers @ Vikings— Minnesota’s OL coach Sparano died unexpectedly this summer; the OL also has injury issues now. Home side won 11 of last 12 series games; 49ers lost last five games in the Twin Cities, with three losses by 11+ points. Vikings are 5-2 in last seven series games; four of last five series totals were 37 or less. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 18-5-1 as home favorites; under is 19-13 in their home games the last four years. 49ers were 5-2 as road underdogs LY in Shanahan’s first season, after being 7-13-1 from ’13-’16. Over is 15-9 in SF road games the last three years. Minnesota won/covered its last three home openers. Cousins will be Minnesota’s 11th different #1 QB the last 15 years, 4th in last four years.

Bengals @ Colts— Home side won last eight series games; Bengals lost their last eight visits here, with last visit a ’14 playoff game- their last win here was in ’97. Since 2012, Cincy is 17-12-2 as a road underdog; under is 21-11 in their last 32 road games. Colts are 12-9-1 in last 22 games as home favorites; under is 17-7 in their last 24 home games. Bengals open on road for 8th time in last nine years; over is 8-1 in their last nine road openers. Colts lost their last four home openers, three by 4 or fewer points. Indy started season 0-1 seven of last eight years- they’re 1-9 vs spread in Week 1 the last ten years. Luck’s return at QB is a huge boost for the Colts.

Bills @ Ravens— Peterman is Buffalo’s starting QB here; he was 1-1 in two starts LY, throwing five INT’s in a half in a horrific 54-24 loss to the Chargers, then beating Colts 13-7 in a December home game. Home side won last six series games; last four were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Bills lost last four visits here, by 14-12-3-6 points. Since ’12, Ravens are 16-22-1 vs spread as home favorites; under is 19-13-1 in their last 33 road games. Since ’14, Buffalo 14-9-1 as road underdogs; under is 19-13 in their road games. Ravens won 11 of last 13 home openers; under is 4-1 in last five of those. Bills made playoffs LY for first time in 19 years, but QB Taylor is gone; top draft pick Josh Allen is Peterman’s backup.

Jaguars @ Giants— Last five years, Jags are 3-17 vs spread when playing an NFC team. Home side won all six series games; Jaguars are 0-3 vs Giants here, losing by 3-7-4 points- they’re 3-6 vs Jets in Garden State, so 3-9 overall in the Swamp. This will be first time in six years Big Blue opens the season at home; Giants lost five of their last six home openers (0-6 vs spread); five of those six games stayed under. Since ’15, Big Blue is 7-4 vs spread as home underdogs; under is 10-6 in their home games the last two years. Since ’12, Jaguars are 2-3 as road favorites; over is 28-20 in their road games the last six years. Giants are one of four NFL teams (Bills, Dallas, Panthers) whose backup QB’s have zero NFL starts.

Buccaneers @ Saints— No Jameis Winston (suspended) for Bucs; Fitzpatrick (48-70-1 as NFL starter) gets the nod at QB- Tulane alum Griffin is his backup. Saints are 10-3 in last 13 series games, but last six were split. Bucs lost six of last seven visits to Big Easy, with four of six losses by 11+ points. Under Koetter, Tampa Bay is 7-6-1 as road underdogs; since 2011, over is 29-26-2 in their road games. Since ’14, NO is 10-15-1 as a home favorite; over is 21-11 in their home games last four years. Saints lost their last three home openers; they started last four seasons 0-1. Saints scored special teams TD in both meetings vs Tampa Bay LY. Last five years, Bucs are 7-13-1 vs spread on artificial turf.

Texans @ Patriots— Last 15 years, Super Bowl loser is 2-13 vs spread in their first game the following season, 2-10 when favored. Patriots are 14-2 SU in last 16 home openers, but just 1-5 vs spread in last six. Houston is 0-6 in Foxboro, with five of six losses by 13+ points; they’re 1-9 overall vs Patriots, losing last seven- they lost 36-33 here LY. Texans are 11-15-1 in last 27 games as road underdogs; under is 9-6-1 in their road games last two years. Since ’13, Patriots are 23-10-3 as home favorites; Over is 41-23 in their home games the last eight years. Texans open on road for only 2nd time in last 10 years; they won seven of last nine road openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven season openers. Over was 5-1 in QB Watson’s six starts last year.

Titans @ Dolphins— Tennessee made playoffs LY for first time in nine years, won a playoff game, then fired the head coach; not sure why. Teams split last six meetings; Titans won two of last three visits here. LY, Miami beat Tennessee 16-10 here, in game where neither team gained 200 total yards. Since 2012, Dolphins are 12-7-2 vs spread as home underdogs; over is 11-4 in their last 15 home games. Since ’14, Tennessee is 2-5-1 as a road favorite; over is 14-10 in their road games the last three years. Titans are 9-2 vs spread in last 11 road openers; under is 16-5 in their last 21 road openers. Tannehill is back at QB for Miami, after missing all of LY; his record as a starting QB is 37-40.

Chiefs @ Chargers— 2nd career start for KC’s new QB Mahomes; he won the first one in Denver last December. Chiefs won last eight series games, with three of four wins in Golden State by 10+ points. Chiefs are 12-9 as road underdogs under Reid; over is 13-9-1 in their road games last three years. Since ’11, Chargers are 15-21 as home favorites; under was 6-2 in their home games LY, their first year playing home games in Carson. KC is on road three of first four weeks this season, with a QB who has started one NFL game- they won that game 27-24. Bolts covered five of their last six home openers; over is 12-3 in their last 15. Last three years, KC was a combined +45 in turnover margin; with Alex Smith gone, can they maintain that?

Seahawks @ Broncos— Seattle won three of last four series games, but lost seven of last eight visits here; since 2011, Seahawks are 13-8-6 vs spread as road underdogs. Under is 15-9 in their road games last three years. Since ’15, Broncos are 5-9-2 vs spread as home favorites; under is 12-10-1 in their last 23 home games. Denver opens at home for 8th year in row; they’re 26-3 SU in last 29 home openers, 6-3 vs spread in last nine. Seahawks open on road for 6th time in last eight years; they lost their first road game 10 of last 11 years; they’re 1-12 vs spread in last 13 road openers. Last couple years, Seahawks are 2-6-1 vs spread on natural grass.

Cowboys @ Panthers— Norv Turner coaching Cam Newton’s offense will be fascinating. Home side lost five of last six series games; Dallas is 9-4 overall vs Carolina, 5-2 in Charlotte- both losses were playoff games. Under Garrett, Dallas is 21-14 as a road underdog; under is 17-6 in their last 23 road games. Last two years, Carolina is 5-8 as a home favorite; under is 23-16-1 in their last 40 home games. Panthers open at home for only 2nd time in last seven years; they’re 0-5 last five times they started season at home. Carolina’s last Week 1 home win was in 2003. Dallas covered nine of last 11 road openers. Cowboys have some injury issues on OL and a rookie kicker. Panthers’ T Kalil is out for first weeks of season.

Redskins @ Cardinals— Both teams have new QB; Arizona has new coach, too- he was with the Panthers for six years, was DC last year. Redskins’ QB Smith is 88-62-1 as an NFL starter, injury-prone Bradford is 34-45-1- he played only two games LY for Minnesota. Home side won last six series games; Redskins are 9-2 in last 11 games vs Arizona, but lost 30-20/31-23 in last two visits here- they beat Redbirds 20-15 (-4) at home LY. Last three years, Arizona is 10-13-1 vs spread at home; under is 19-12-1 in their last 32 home games. Under Gruden, Redskins are 16-16 vs spread on road; over is 17-7 in their last 24 road games.

Bears @ Packers— Green Bay is 14-2 in last 16 games in this ancient rivalry, winning last four by 16-3-17-7 points, but Bears split last four visits to Lambeau. Last two years, Bears are 4-10-1 as road underdogs- under is 10-5-1 in their last 16 road games. Since ’14, Packers are 17-8-2 as a home favorite; under is 15-9 in their last 24 home games. Chicago opens on road for only 2nd time in last nine years; they’re 2-5 in last seven road openers. Under is 12-2 in their last 14 road openers. Packers won 10 of their last 11 home openers. Chicago’s new OC is former Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich, who has zero NFL experience; DC Fangio has been in Chicago since 2015, so he is familiar with Green Bay.

Monday
Jets @ Lions— Rookie QB Darnold becomes youngest QB in last 48 years to start in Week 1. Detroit coach Patricia should be familiar with Jet offense from his days coaching Patriots’ defense. Jets are 6-7 vs Detroit, but won three of last four meetings; they’re 4-3 in Motor City, winning last visit here in OT. Since 2014, Detroit is 14-5-2 as home favorites; under is 29-19 in their home games last six years. Under Bowles, Jets are 3-8-3 as road underdogs; under is 15-8 in their last 23 road games. Lions won five of their last seven home openers; over is 6-2 in their last eight. Detroit started season 1-0 six of last seven years. Jets are 15-6 vs spread in last 21 road openers. Patricia is a defensive coach; will Lions try to run ball more, to protect the defense?

Rams @ Raiders— Gruden returns to sidelines after 10 years away. Raiders are 8-5 against the Rams, but lost last meeting 52-0 in St Louis— lot has changed for both sides since. Rams are 2-5 in series road games. Since 2012, Oakland is 10-16-1 as a home underdog- under is 22-9 in their last 31 home games. Rams are 7-5 vs spread as favorites LY, 4-2 on road; over was 7-1 in their road games LY. Raiders lost four of last six home openers, last four of which went over the total. Rams are 2-14 in last 16 road openers, 3-15 vs spread in last 18- they did win their road opener LY. Goff’s dad played for the SF Giants; this is a homecoming for him. Rams signed star DT Donald; Raiders traded their holdout star DE Mack to the Bears.

[StarDust Bum]

Eagles down Falcons in ugly opener
September 6, 2018

PHILADELPHIA (AP) Matt Ryan to Julio Jones failed again.

Jay Ajayi had a pair of touchdown runs, Nick Foles caught another pass to jump-start a sputtering offense and the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles needed another defensive stand to open the season with an 18-12 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night.

A sloppy, mistake-filled game that featured 26 penalties came down to Ryan throwing an incomplete pass to Jones in the left corner of the end zone on the final play from Philadelphia's 5.

Jones couldn't come down with Ryan's pass from the 2 in the right corner of the end zone in Atlanta's 15-10 loss in the divisional round in January.

A weather delay pushed the kickoff back 45 minutes, forcing fans to wait for the unveiling of the ''world champions'' banner following the franchise's first Super Bowl victory. Wearing his gold Hall of Fame jacket, former safety Brian Dawkins riled up the sellout crowd with owner Jeffrey Lurie by his side and led a chorus of ''Fly Eagles Fly.''

The defense fed off that energy with a strong goal-line stand on the opening series, stopping the Falcons three times at the 1.

They did it again at the end.

After Ajayi's 11-yard TD run and 2-point conversion gave the Eagles a lead with 2:25 left, Ryan led the Falcons down the field. He completed a 36-yard pass to Jones and connected with him again for 18 yards on third-and-17.

The Falcons had a first down at the 10 but Ryan threw four straight incomplete passes. But a penalty on Jordan Hicks gave them one more chance and the Eagles held again.

Needing a spark on offense, Eagles coach Doug Pederson resorted to the ''Philly Special'' play that helped the Eagles beat the New England Patriots 41-33 in the Super Bowl. This time, Foles caught a 15-yard pass from Nelson Agholor to extend a drive that ended with Ajayi scoring a go-ahead 1-yard TD run in the third quarter.

Foles, the Super Bowl MVP still filling in for Carson Wentz, played it safe and the offense was conservative until Pederson turned to his favorite play on third-and-5 midway through the third quarter. Corey Clement took a toss and flipped to Agholor, who threw it to Foles running open down the right side for a gain to the Falcons 26.

Foles hit Zach Ertz for 18 yards on third-and-6 and Ajayi ran in a few plays later to put Philadelphia up 10-6.

Against New England, tight end Trey Burton took a flip from Clement on a reverse and threw a 1-yard TD pass to Foles to give the Eagles a 10-point halftime lead.

Philadelphia's defense overcame a pair of blunders to temporarily preserve the lead. Tre Sullivan kicked a loose ball on a punt and the Falcons recovered the fumble at the Eagles 32. A sack by Fletcher Cox on third down was negated by Derek Barnett's offside penalty to keep the drive going. But Rasul Douglas intercepted Ryan's pass at the 4.

Deion Jones then intercepted Foles' pass that bounced out of Dallas Goedert's hands and returned it 20 yards to Philadelphia's 27, setting up Tevin Coleman's 9-yard TD run that gave the Falcons a 12-10 lead in the fourth quarter. Matt Bryant hit the right post on the extra point.

On a hot, muggy night, it looked more like an August preseason game than a playoff rematch. Both teams looked rusty after many starters didn't play much in preseason. It didn't compare to the action in Kansas City's 42-27 victory at New England in the 2017 NFL opener.

Bryant kicked field goals of 52 and 21 yards in the first quarter.

ANTHEM

Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins and defensive end Michael Bennett were on the sideline when the national anthem was played. Jenkins raised his fist during ''The Star-Spangled Banner'' last year and in the first preseason game. He stayed in the tunnel for the last three weeks. Bennett mostly stayed off the field in the preseason. He wandered behind teammates near the bench and adjusted his equipment this time.

INJURIES

Falcons: S Keanu Neal left the game with a knee injury in the first half. ... LS Josh Harris had his streak of 103 consecutive games played end because of a hip injury.

Eagles: WR Mack Hollins was placed on injured reserve hours before the game because of a groin injury.

UP NEXT

Falcons: Host the Carolina Panthers on Sept. 16.

Eagles: Visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sept. 16.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, September 9, 2018

Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM San Francisco 49ers Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM Houston Texans New England Patriots
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars New York Giants
4:05 PM Kansas City Chiefs Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Washington Redskins Arizona Cardinals
4:25 PM Dallas Cowboys Carolina Panthers
4:25 PM Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos
8:20 PM Chicago Bears Green Bay Packers

Monday, September 10, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
7:10 PM New York Jets Detroit Lions
10:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Oakland Raiders


*************************

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


BEST BETS:

DATE.......................ATS................UNIT S................O/U..................UNITS..................TOTAL

09/06/2018............1 - 0................+5.00................1 - 0.................+5.00................+10.00

[Udog]

Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest

Top 6 picks in the 3,123 entries

1) Bengals +3 (1,218 picked them)

2) Rams -4 (1,052)

3) Ravens -7.5 (907)

4) Vikings -6.5 (854)

5) Texans +6.5 (848)

6) Broncos -3 (807)

[Udog]

Essentials - Week 1
Tony Mejia

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Cleveland has won two of the last 43 games, failing to come out ahead in 17 straight contests. The Browns were actually favored once last year and were an underdog of only three points or fewer three other times, but this number is still lower than one would normally expect. Is there a “Hard Knocks” influence in this line? Cleveland has been favored in all four preseason games, winning three outright. Top pick Baker Mayfield will sit behind Tyrod Taylor, who will have Josh Gordon at his disposal. The talented receiver won’t start but should factor in substantially behind Jarvis Landry and rookie Antonio Callaway. Coming off a well-publicized suspension, he’s overcome a hamstring issue that kept him from practicing much this preseason. Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb should make for a formidable running back tandem, so we’ll see if Todd Haley can secure immediate dividends as offensive coordinator of his new group against a defense he faced daily in practice for the last six seasons.

The Pittsburgh offense will have to solve a defense that has looked fantastic under Gregg Williams, who has no problem blitzing teams in the preseason when others take a more vanilla approach. Former No. 1 pick Myles Garrett has looked tremendous and others have had an excellent run leading up to this season opener, but it remains to be seen what effect cutting LB Mychal Kendricks will have after he was charged with insider training. The Steelers will be without Le’Veon Bell, who hadn’t reported to the team as of Friday due to a contract dispute. James Conner, a second-year back out of Pitt who ran for just 144 yards as a rookie will start in Bell’s place. Antonio Brown will be out there as Ben Roethlisberger’s top target despite dealing with a quad issue while veteran guard Ramon Foster has also been upgraded to probable after dealing with a knee injury. After calling out Bell, the offensive line is expected to try and ball out for Conner, so we’ll see how they fare against an improved Cleveland pass rush. The Browns haven’t won a season opener since 2004 and are 3-14 against the number in the last 17 meetings against the Steelers in Cleveland and are 1-9 straight up in their last 10, part of a run that has seen them prevail in only four of 35 encounters with their AFC North rival since 2001. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has won its last 10 divisional games.

San Francisco at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo won all five of his starts last season but faces his biggest test with one of the NFL’s top defenses getting the past month-plus to prepare for him with plenty of tape to study. We’ll see what tendencies the Vikings can identify and potentially exploit and will have CB Xavier Rhodes (hamstring) in the mix and rookie Mike Hughes in a heightened role since Mackensie Alexander is listed as doubtful. The Vikes won’t have to deal with former teammate Jerick McKinnon, who signed on in the offseason but tore his ACL, leaving all the carries to veteran Alfred Morris and second-year back Matt Breida.

Minnesota upgraded its quarterback by handing Kirk Cousins a massive contract and also welcomes Dalvin Cook back from injury, so we’ll see how the offense takes shape. Adam Thielen has been cleared after rolling his left ankle last week, so the major question mark for the Vikings’ offense comes up front since center Pat Eflein has been ruled out and Nick Easton was lost for the season with a neck injury. Brett Jones will start. The 49ers will be without top linebacker Reuben Foster, who is serving a two-game suspension. Arik Armstead will be out there despite a hamstring issue and will be out there trying to wreak havoc along the defensive line with fellow first-round picks Solomon Thomas and DeForest Buckner. San Francisco has lost its last five games in Minnesota. The Vikings have won their last six home games and are 13-4 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: After squaring off in the preseason finale, these neighbors kick off the season with Andrew Luck’s return taking center stage. After missing all of 2017, he will face an aggressive defense that will be missing their leader with Vontaze Burfict suspended for the first four games. Luck participated in the preseason but the Colts put very little on display and will be working with a young offensive line that requires No. 6 pick Quenton Nelson to perform well immediately. The run game is also a question mark with mainstay Frank Gore gone and Marlon Mack questionable with a hamstring issue. Tackle Anthony Castonzo (hamstring) should play but Denzelle Good won’t, so conditions aren’t exactly ideal for Luck to feel like he’ll be protected in his first regular-season game in 20 months.

The Bengals have a new defensive coordinator in the very competent Teryl Austin, but this group has seen their level diminish without Burfict in the past. We’ll see how Austin compensates. Andy Dalton will start his eighth consecutive season opener for Cincy and will again have A.J. Green, but the passing game finally gets deep threat John Ross out there after he missed most of his rookie season with knee and shoulder issues after fumbling on his first snap. Tight end Tyler Eifert has also returned from a back issue, so we’ll see the offense at full strength in Bill Lazor’s second season as the coordinator. Indianapolis has won eight of 11 against the Bengals.

Buffalo at Baltimore, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: A.J. McCarron was traded and Josh Allen was beaten out for the starting gig by Nathan Peterman, whose rookie season was marred by throwing interceptions every time he tried to get something accomplished. LeSean McCoy wasn’t suspended for his offseason drama and WR Kelvin Benjamin has had an entire preseason with his new team. New coordinator Brian Daboll will match wits with Don Martindale, the long-time linebackers coach who is taking over the defense from Dean Pees. He’ll have to make up for the absence of Jimmy Smith (suspension), but has a unit that returns almost everyone and actually stayed healthy throughout camp.

Lamar Jackson should debut in some capacity since the Ravens have been experimenting with packages that can take advantage of his speed and elusiveness. Joe Flacco took to the increased competition from the rookie first-round pick and Robert Griffin III and had his sharpest camp in years, developing chemistry with new receiving weapons Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead. Flacco’s 141.4 passer rating topped all NFL quarterbacks in the preseason. It’s expected to rain most of the weekend in the Baltimore area, so be sure to check the forecast before placing a wager here. Buffalo has dropped four straight at the Big Crabcake and has only won three of its last 11 road games.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: New York opened last season as a Super Bowl contender before Odell Beckham, Jr. was injured and the bottom fell out on the Ben McAdoo era. Pat Shurmur, who has run the offense for Minnesota and Philadelphia over the past few years, will team with Mike Shula to get the most out of an offense set to debut No. 2 pick Saquon Barkley at running back in order to take pressure off 15-year veteran Eli Manning. Barkley has been dealing with a hamstring issue and tight end Evan Engram has come through concussion protocol, but the Giants are still thin at tackle and may have issues blocking against one of the NFL’s top defenses. Beckham’s duel with standout Jags corner Jalen Ramsey will get the most attention, but there are other crititcal matchups that could decide this one.

New York must find a way to harass Blake Bortles into turnovers despite missing Olivier Vernon, who was expected to be a standout in a new look 3-4. Rookie Lorenzo Carter, a third-round pick out of Georgia, will be cast in a huge role as a result. The Jags will rely on a slimmer Leonard Fournette to try and slow down New York’s pass rush and will likely utilize a heavy dose of the ground game due to potential showers being part of the forecast. Jacksonville has gone 5-1 against the number in its last six games against the Giants but will need new receivers to step up against a secondary that on paper, appears to be the strength of the defense. We’ll see if young options like Dede Westbrook and rookie DJ Chark can rise up to keep the Jags from being one-dimensional.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The week’s biggest favorite saw their advantage grow when final injury reports were released on Friday since it appears that top corner Brent Grimes will be unable to shake off a groin injury in order to play. With backup De’Vante Harris (hamstring) also doubtful, the Bucs will be thin and young at corner going on the road against a quarterback that doesn’t need help taking healthy secondaries apart. Rookies Carlton Davis and M.J. Stewart will play large roles and face a baptism by fire. First-round pick Vita Vea hasn’t played due to a calf injury, so the Bucs won’t have the No. 12 pick who they envisioned being disruptive. The Saints will be missing RB Mark Ingram to a four-game suspension but should have starting guard Andrus Peat (guard) in the mix up front to help block for Brees and open holes for Alvin Kamara.

With Jameis Winston suspended for the first three games of the season, it will be on Ryan Fitzpatrick to try to help Tampa Bay’s offense keep pace with the Saints. The 14-year veteran will lean on Mike Evans, who has a checkered history with corner Marshon Lattimore, so keep an eye on that matchup. The Bucs saw No. 38 pick Ronald Jones (USC) gain just 22 yards on 28 preseason carries, dampening enthusiasm over his addition and solidifying Peyton Barber as the starter. Tampa Bay has lost its last seven games as a road underdog but New Orleans have won only one of its last 10 September games. That includes an 0-4 record SU and ATS at home in the Superdome. The Saints have won 10 of 13 in this series since Nov. 2011.

Houston at New England, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Tom Brady vs. Deshaun Watson to start the season provides an awfully juicy matchup pairing the game’s top quarterback against one of the most promising young prospects and potential heirs to the throne. Last year’s contest produced a 36-33 The contrast in their styles adds to the entertainment value, especially since Brady will have to deal with a healthy J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney on the hunt as he tries to work. He may not have left tackle Marcus Cannon available to help keep his uniform clean, although the calf injury that kept him out this preseason has healed enough for him to participate in practices this week. Brady probably won’t have rookie RB Sony Michel in the mix but will otherwise have a loaded arsenal of weapons that includes new toys like Jeremy Hill and Cordarrelle Patterson in addition to Rob Gronkowski, James White, Rex Burkhead Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett. The Texans will have starting corner Kevin Johnson available after he cleared concussion protocol, but veteran Kayvon Webster, signed to a one-year deal to improve depth, isn’t ready to contribute yet. Safety Andre Hal and rookie corner Jermain Kelly are out.

Bill Belichick has Josh McDaniels back to run the offense after he reneged on Indianapolis’ head coaching job but will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator with Brian Flores running plays. Houston’s Bill O’Brien is expected to hold back little with Deshaun Watson at 100 percent and will look to make the Patriots work by ensuring his quarterback takes advantage of his opportunities to run. Watson threw for 301 yards against New England last season and ran for another 41 against a defense that has had its issues early in seasons of late. Watson’s chances of lighting up the Pats again would improve if Will Fuller is able to be a factor. He’s a game-time decision due to a hamstring injury. The Texans have lost seven straight in this series and have won only once in 10 career meetings.

Tennessee at Miami, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Ryan Tannehill’s ill-timed ACL tear sabotaged Miami last season, forcing them to turn to Jay Cutler. He took part in preseason action, throwing for a score while not committing a turnover, but this is going to be a major test right out of the box. Tennessee will have an aggressive defensive game plan in place with head coach Mike Vrabel and veteran coordinator Dean Pees joining forces. The Dolphins are hoping that Kenyan Drake can emerge as a workhorse and have veteran Frank Gore and rookie Kalen Ballage on board, so we might see a major emphasis on the ground game in this one in order to ease Tannehill in and survive the absence of top WR DeVante Parker, who is sitting with a finger injury. Danny Amendola should factor in heavily in his debut. Tennessee got bad news with safety Kendrick Lewis (foot) and rookie LBs Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry ruled out. The secondary already lost safety Jonathan Cyprien for the season early in camp. DE Derrick Morgan will play.

Titans tight end Delanie Walker, Marcus Mariota’s security blanket, is going to play after sitting out the preseason to rest his toe. The Dolphins struggled to cover that position well last season, so Walker and FIU product Jonnu Smith could feature prominently. The offensive line will be without starting tackle Jack Conklin, so they’ll be relying on veteran backup Dennis Kelly to help create space for Mariota, Derrick Henry and newcomer Dion Lewis, who should provide a versatile threat out of the backfield. Tennessee went winless and didn’t cover this preseason so the team is looking for its first taste of success under the new leadership. Thunderstorms are a possibility in South Florida but likely won’t factor in until late in the game if at all.

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Patrick Mahomes II won his first start last season in a meaningless Week 17 game, so he’s got that experience to draw on as he takes over as Kansas City’s starting quarterback. That victory came in Denver, so he’s performed on the road and won’t have to deal with much of an atmosphere in Carson since the StubHub Center offers the Chargers the least significant homefield edge in the NFL. Mahomes also won’t have to deal with top Chargers pass rusher Joey Bosa, who will miss the game with a foot injury. Corey Liuget is serving a four-game suspension and the secondary has already lost a few key bodies, so a few factors have lineup in his favor as he looks to build on the success Alex Smith enjoyed. The presumption is that the Chiefs may take a step back due to his inexperience and proclivity for mistakes, but the arm talent he brings to the table could help push weapons like Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill to another level.

Philip Rivers has plenty of help to try and put the Chargers over the top following a frustrating season that saw his team go 1-4 in games decided by three or fewer points. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams available in addition to Tyrell Williams and RB Melvin Gordon, L.A. should be able to put up points against a secondary that struggled last season and traded Marcus Peters to the Rams. He picked off Rivers twice in the last meeting between these teams. Starting safety Daniel Sorensen is out with a knee injury and veteran Eric Berry is doubtful due to a heel issue. Those absences put Kansas City’s streak of eight consecutive victories against their AFC West rival in jeopardy. The Chiefs have won 16 of 17 within the division under Andy Reid.

Seattle at Denver, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Case Keenum will attempt to solidify the quarterback position for Denver, which has gone 14-18 since winning Super Bowl 50. Paxton Lynch is unemployed, Trevor Siemian is a backup in Minnesota and Brock Osweiler is doing the same in Miami, so all the bad men are gone. Although C.J. Anderson and Aqib Talib will be missed, a younger determined group will look to keep Vance Joseph off the chopping block, which will likely hinge on a strong start to the season. Rookie Royce Freeman will start ahead of Devontae Booker, while Adam Jones is going to start in Talib’s spot and probably return punts after asking for Champ Bailey’s number in an attempt to “honor” his legacy. Denver lost each of its preseason home games but won the last two, looking impressive in a dress rehearsal win at the Redskins.

Seattle is reloading on the run, moving on from the Legion of Boom era but still clinging to one key component with Earl Thomas ending his holdout. He’s returned to practices and is considered a game-time decision in this season opener but will likely play. Rookie Shaquem Griffin has been announced as a starter for a new-look defense that saw Kam Chancellor retire, LB K.J. Wright and DE Dion Jordan ruled out due to injuries and numerous other contributors like Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, Sheldon Richardson and Cliff Avril no longer around. Ken Norton, Jr., who didn’t have much success as a defensive coordinator in Oakland, takes over those duties this season. It remains to be seen if new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer opens things up for Russell Wilson given the uncertainty surrounding the defense, but that hasn’t been his history. Top target Doug Baldwin (knee) and rookie running back Rashaad Penny (finger) will both be available. The Seahawks have dropped their last six September road games, failing to cover any of them. Conversely, Denver is 8-1 SU (7-1-1 ATS) at home over the last few years in the season’s opening month and has won 17 of 24 against the Seahawks.

Dallas at Carolina, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Over the past few seasons, Dallas’ strength has been an offensive line that has created opportunities for Tony Romo and Dak Prescott while giving Ezekiel Elliott a lot of room to work. As the 2018 season begins, that advantage appears to have diminished. Center Travis Frederick is out with Guillain-Barre syndrome, experiencing numbness in his feet, hands and arms. Replacement Joe Looney has never started at center. Rookie Connor Williams will start at left guard with Chaz Green no longer around. Zack Martin will be available but has been struggling with a knee injury. With Dez Bryant gone, Prescott will have to make the aerial attack work with Tavon Austin, Allen Hurns and rookie Michael Gallup. Can tight end Rico Gathers take the next step in his development?

The Panthers will go as far as Cam Newton takes them, but he’s got offensive line issues of his own to contend with. They’ll be looking to execute a new offense with veteran Norv Turner at the helm, going up against a familiar face in good friend Jason Garrett and his one-time former employer. Left tackle Matt Kalil is on IR, while right tackle Daryl Williams is questionable after tearing his MCL and dislocating his patella back in the team’s first practice. Guard Amini Silatolu is also questionable with a knee issue. The addition of C.J. Anderson, Torrey Smith and rookie WR DJ Moore give Newton help, while Christian McCaffrey sowed off increased explosiveness in the preseason. Carolina has won 24 of its last 30 in Charlotte, where thunderstorms may be a part of the equation late Sunday afternoon.

Washington at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Arizona begins the Steve Wilks era against visiting Washington, turning the keys over to newcomer Sam Bradford, who will play mentor to top pick Josh Rosen until the time is right to pass the torch. Or until he gets hurt, which let’s face it, is a strong possibility since he hasn’t played all 16 games of a season since 2012. He was the NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance in last year’s season opener, a Monday night home win over New Orleans, and had a solid preseason. David Johnson is returning from a wrist injury that cost him most of 2017, but center AQ Shipley already landed on IR, complicating matters since the ‘Skins arrive with an aggressive defense that can do a lot of damage with Alabama products Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne up front.

Alex Smith will make his first start with his new team, likely with Adrian Peterson lined up behind him on his first snap from scrimmage. Few could’ve seen that coming. Rookie second-round pick Derrius Guice tore his ACL in early August, so Peterson was signed to try and handle some of the workload with versatile back Chris Thompson also due to see extensive action. Tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis are also expected to see major roles as the offense takes on a new personality after Kirk Cousins moved along. Washington has won nine of 11 against the Cardinals.

Chicago at Green Bay, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC: Chicago will have LBs Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith in the lineup but both are likely to be on a pitch count due to a lack of preparation time with the Bears and veteran coordinator Vic Fangio. Leonard Floyd (hand) is also expected to play, so the Packers and their opposition going forward will have to contend with a special group once everyone gets settled. Green Bay is fortunate in that it gets to host this game and face this defense before they’ve had a chance to truly come together, so Aaron Rodgers has an opportunity to start strong. He’ll have tackles Bryan Bulaga (knee) and David Bakhtiari (ankle) in the mix in front of him and his entire receiving corps available despite losing Jordy Nelson.

The Bears are looking for growth from second-year QB Mitch Trubisky, who has himself two potential No. 1 receivers in newcomer Allen Robinson and rookie Anthony Miller out of Memphis. The 51st pick was fantastic in the preseason and could quickly emerge next to the former Jaguars standout, while Josh Bellamy and Taylor Gabriel are also on board alongside versatile tight end Trey Burton and backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The ingredients are there for first-year head coach Matt Nagy to put together a quick turnaround. Chicago has dropped nine consecutive games against NFC North competition and runs into a Green Bay squad that has won 16 of its last 19 September home games (13-5-1 ATS) and is 16-3 SU against the Bears since 2009, scoring 20 or more points in only six of those 19 contests. Conditions at Lambeau should be cool on a crisp, clear night where temperatures will dip into the low 50s.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 1
Chris David

The 2018 NFL regular season is underway and total bettors playing the ‘under’ in last Thursday’s opener between the Eagles and Falcons were treated to a wire-to-wire winner.

Philadelphia captured an 18-12 victory at home and ‘under’ 44 ½ was never in doubt. Even though the betting public usually leans high in the nationally televised primetime games, this game was bet down from an opener of 47 and the move was certainly right.

Fifteen games left in Week 1 and plenty to discuss.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 1 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: 47 to 41
Buffalo at Baltimore: 42 ½ to 40 ½
Dallas at Carolina: 44 to 42 ½

The offshore outfit opened their numbers in late April, one of the first books to do so and the lines have held steady outside of the Browns-Steelers matchup. A lot of the downward movement on this game came this week when hopes of Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell returning to the lineup were diminished.

Listed below are the largest betting trend percentages per the VI Matchup index as of Saturday.

Steelers-Browns: Under 86%
Bills-Ravens: Under 85%
Jaguars-Giants: Under 82%
Rams-Raiders: Under 77%
Titans-Dolphins: Under 75%

It’s a little surprising to see this many low-side leans knowing most bettors lean to ‘over’ tickets but I could certainly see the argument for the five leans above.

Fifty Something

Even though a lot of pundits believe scoring will increase this season due to the new rule changes helping offensive units, we only have one Week 1 total listed in the fifties.

That matchup takes place in Foxboro between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. The two teams met last season in Week 3 from Gillette Stadium and ‘over’ (44 ½) bettors cashed an easy ticket with New England holding off Houston 33-30.

That game was the coming-out party for Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, who lit up New England for 342 total yards and two touchdowns. In six games as starter before his knee injury, the Texans averaged 34.6 points per game. Watson is certainly a huge ‘wildcard’ this season but if healthy and back to last year’s form, it’s certainly hard to imagine a huge drop-off in 2018.

New England was a tough team to figure out last season from a totals perspective. They started 2017 with four ‘over’ winners in a row but the defense improved and the ‘under’ closed the regular season on a 9-3 run. The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the postseason and the last thing bettors recall is New England making Eagles backup QB Nick Foles look like an all-time great. Watching him on Thursday versus the Falcons and in the preseason, it’s safe to say that we agree Foles shouldn’t be placed in that echelon.

Historically, this series has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in the 10 meetings between the pair and the Patriots have averaged 33.1 PPG in those games. Make a note that the number jumps to 35.4 PPG with Tom Brady as starting quarterback.

One trend that could have you leaning high focuses on a Super Bowl angle with the runner-up of last year’s finale. It’s widely known to back last year’s winner and that cashed Thursday with Philadelphia. It’s also known to fade the loser, which is New England. Along with fading the Patriots, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight openers for the SB loser.

Divisional Matchups

Week 1 has four divisional matchups on tap in Week 1 and one will be played in the Sunday primetime slot.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings but we’ve seen a stalemate the past two seasons (2-2). In the last four, both games in Pittsburgh went ‘over’ while the two matchups in Cleveland saw the low side connect and many bettors believe that trend will continue.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: This series has had some high totals recently with the last five meetings closing in the fifties. Despite the high expectations, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 during this span and last year’s 31-24 win by Tampa Bay in Week 17 was fortunate to go ‘over’ as the pair combined for 25 points in the fourth quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at QB for the Bucs and in three starts for Tampa Bay last season, the club averaged 21.7 PPG. New Orleans has been a great ‘over’ bet in Week 1 recently, going 6-1 to the high side the last seven years. For those of you looking to lay the points with New Orleans, be aware that it is 1-6 during this run and the clubs has allowed an average 35.6 PPG in the setbacks.

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers: In a series dominated recently by the Chiefs (8-0 L8), we’ve also seen a strong ‘under’ (6-2) trend between the pair. The Chargers have been held to 13.8 PPG during this span. Los Angeles was the best ‘under’ bet (12-4) in the AFC last season, which was helped with the top ranked scoring defense (17 PPG). The unit is a little banged up (Bosa out) for Week 1 but should still have an edge over second-year QB Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs.

Chicago at Green Bay: (See Below)

AFC vs. NFC

Non-conference matchups are never an easy handicap but there are trends to keep an eye on for the opening weekend.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants: The Jaguars watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 versus the NFC last season and the well-respected defense allowed 30.5 PPG in those games. New York is 6-2 to the ‘under’ in its last eight matchups against AFC foes.

Seattle at Denver: Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 15-5 in its last 20 non-conference games and that includes a run of seven straight to the high side. The Broncos are 5-2 to the ‘under’ in their last seven versus the NFC.

N.Y. Jets at Detroit: The Jets saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their four matchups against the NFC last season. The Lions surrendered 21.2 PPG to the AFC last season. The team went 1-3 and the lone win came against 0-16 Cleveland, who posted 24 on Detroit. The ‘over’ went 2-1-1.

L.A. Rams at Oakland: The Rams swept their four AFC opponents last season and the offense averaged 33.3 PPG, which helped the ‘over’ go 3-1. The Raiders took a step back in 2017 against the NFC, scoring just 15.3 PPG. That production led to a 1-3 record and 4-0 ‘under’ mark.

Under the Lights

SNF - Chicago at Green Bay: The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between the pair and the Bears just don’t have an answer for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is 15-4 against Chicago with him as a starter and it’s averaging 37.4 PPG in the last seven encounters. The Bears defense wasn’t exactly a pushover (20 PPG) last season and that helped the ‘under’ go 12-4 but two of the four ‘over’ tickets came vs. Green Bay. Since the SNF game is a huge ‘chase’ game for bettors, you know the books will be hoping for a Bears-Under combination.

The Monday Night Football double-header began in 2006 and continues this week with a pair of non-conference games (see above). We haven’t seen many glaring trends recently with the ‘over’ going 6-4 over the past five seasons.

N.Y. Jets at Detroit: Based on Detroit’s reputation as an ‘over’ team, I would expect this line to get juiced up by kickoff. The Lions went 10-6 to the high side last season, 6-2 from Ford Field. Also, the Lions have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 in their last seven Week 1 matchups and the offense has averaged 30.7 PPG in this span.

L.A. Rams at Oakland: The Rams were also a solid ‘over’ club last season (11-5) and a lot of that damage came on the road (7-1) because of their potent offense (32.8 PPG). Will we see a regression? Will the new-look L.A. defense keep opponents in check? We’ll find out soon enough and we’ll also get to see if head coach Jon Gruden can improve an Oakland offense (18.8 PPG) that struggled last season.

Fearless Predictions

This is my 11th year producing the “Total Talk” column on and certainly one of my favorites. For those new to the VegasInsider.com and the industry, welcome aboard and best of luck with your wagers. And to those that have circled back around, thanks for the loyalty. Remember, feedback is welcomed and appreciated. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Seattle-Denver 42 ½

Best Under: Kansas City-L.A. Chargers 48 ½

Best Team Total: Over Cincinnati 23

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 40 Bengals-Colts
Over 42 Buccaneers-Saints
Over 37 ½ Jets-Lions

[Udog]

NFL Week 1 SNF Betting Preview

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

It's always good to get a key divisional matchup for the first SNF game of the year, and given the expectations the Bears and Packers have for themselves in 2018, this could be a great way to start the primetime SNF season.

Both Chicago and Green Bay have NFC North division title hopes as Green Bay's got QB Aaron Rodgers healthy and happy with a new fat contract, while Chicago made out and made a huge deal to get LB Khalil Mack from Oakland and made him happy with a fat contract as well.

Yet, the Bears are still basically in Year 2 of their rebuilding program with QB Mitchell Trubisky at the helm, and went out and got him plenty of help earlier in the off-season. Will it be enough to find a way for the Bears to pull off a Week 1 upset?

Odds: Green Bay (-7.5); Total set at 47

Getting Mack was a huge boost for the Bears this past week as it sent a message to the players that the organization firmly believes they are in a position to compete now. Whether or not that comes to fruition over the course of 16 games these next few months remains to be seen, but as the entire division around them gets to continuously talk about how great their QB's are (Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford), the Bears went out to attack that issue head on with the Mack deal, while hopefully their own young QB matures into that class of player. Make no mistake about it, this Bears team is going to try and win with defense first this year and it'll start in Green Bay on Sunday.

The Packers might have opened up their checkbook to Rodgers this year, but they did also bring him a great redzone target in TE Jimmy Graham. Graham expects to be a big factor for the Packers down tight – ala Gronkowski in New England – but the Packers still need to find a consistent running game soon or they risk becoming too one-dimensional again with their attack. When you've got one of the best QB's in the game like Aaron Rodgers you are naturally going to want to keep the ball in his hands as often as possible, but one-dimensional attacks in the NFL can be fairly easy to defend.

Furthermore, the Packers have learned the past few years that they can't solely rely on Rodgers and the offense to win every game 35-32. Green Bay made a decided effort to improve on the defensive line and in their secondary, and with their linebacking core healthy to start the year, this Packers defense could end up being just as nasty as the Bears here.

All of that means that this game sets up as one where it's strength vs strength (Packers offense vs Bears defense), with each side hoping for some decided improvements on the other side of the ball. The former will make Green Bay drives exciting to watch as a general fan, but not so much if you like high-scoring games. Chicago played plenty of bend-but-don't-break a year ago and with the talent they've got now, their defense might not even bend all that much. Chances are we will see plenty of long Packers drives end in FG's or worse in that case as points should actually be hard to come by here.

Which leads me to this total of 47.5 being too high for this game as we could see more of the old NFC North days when this division used to be nicknamed the “black and blue” division for how hard-hitting it was. Green Bay's defense isn't about to go out and get lit up by Trubisky in the season opener, and Chicago won't exactly be taking that many offensive risks, content to play a field position game and rely on their defense.

Seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have cashed 'under' tickets, and while many of those have come in much colder and rougher weather conditions, the end result won't be any different here.

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points

[Udog]

Sunday’s six-pack
Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)
1) Bengals +3 (1,218 picked them)
2) Rams -4 (1,052)
3) Ravens -7.5 (907)
4) Vikings -6.5 (854)
5) Texans +6.5 (848)
6) Broncos -3 (807)


Quote of the Day
“I placed my first bet in fifth grade — five bucks on the Super Bowl with my brother. I lost, but what transpired the entire day epitomizes my love for sports betting. The analysis before the bet. The anticipation of the start. The rush of the game. Yes, winning is the ideal result but the range of emotions is what the experience sells.”
Doug Kezirian, ESPN.com

Sunday’s quiz
Which city used to host the Poulan Weed Eater Bowl every New Year’s Eve?

Saturday’s quiz
Green Bay won the first Super Bowl, 35-10 against the Chiefs.

Friday’s quiz
In the football scenes in The Longest Yard, Burt Reynolds’ character Paul Crewe wore number 22, one of the numbers he wore as a running back at Florida State.


Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Colorado 33, Nebraska 28— Exciting game; Cornhuskers threw a couple passes in the end zone on the last series, after Colorado took the lead on a 40-yard pass to Laviska Shenault with 1:07 left. Shenault is a great player; he caught 10 passes for 177 yards and also carried the ball a couple of times. Reminds me of Tim Brown, the old Raider.

Colorado’s kicker is a 31-year old Australian who played pro soccer for ten years before deciding to go to college and trying football. He missed a 37-yard FG with 9:56 left, when Colorado trailed 28-27. He also made two FG’s and missed another one; he needs to do better.

12) Georgia 41, South Carolina 17— Dawgs looked very fast in this game, dominant performance; right at the start of the game, this kid on Georgia picked off a pass and ran it in for a TD, but he did what one or two kids does every year, and it drives me bleepin’ crazy.

Pet Peeve of the Day: When you’re scoring an uncontested touchdown, do not drop the ball just as you cross the goal line, because many times, YOU HAVEN’T CROSSED THE LINE YET.

Georgia kid did that here, but one of his teammates picked up the ball and saved his friend from being a complete moron, someone who has to be a “cool guy” and show off, but instead gets on SportsCenter as the guy who is so cool he cost his team a touchdown for no reason.

11) Bad Beat of the Day:
Florida Atlantic (-8) 33, Air Force 27— Down 33-20 late in the game, Air Force blocked a punt and ran it in for a TD with 0:50 left, to cover the 8-point spread.

10) Upsets of the Day:
— East Carolina (+16) 41, North Carolina 19
— Eastern Michigan (+15) 20, Purdue 19
— Kentucky (+13.5) 27, Florida 16
— Colorado State (+13.5) 34, Arkansas 27
— Coastal Carolina (+9.5) 47, UAB 24
— Navy (+7) 22, Memphis 21
— Maine (I-AA team) 31, Western Kentucky 28

9) South Florida 49, Georgia Tech 38— USF ran two kickoffs back for TD’s in the first quarter; last team to have two kick return TD’s in the same game? Cal Golden Bears, in 2014. So when you see that Tech outgained the Bulls 602-426, it is misleading, since USF had two fewer possessions, thanks to the kick returns.

8) Oklahoma 49, UCLA 21— It is weird watching the A’s late Saturday afternoon and they flash the Oklahoma score on the screen— Sooners’ QB Kyler Murray was Oakland’s 1st round draft pick back in June, and will be an outfielder in the A’s minor league system starting next year.

Oklahoma has really good receivers, and a lot of them; Murray is like a point guard, getting rid of the ball quickly to one of his very fast friends.

7) Mississippi State 31, Kansas State 10— K-State’s kicker is a kid named Blake Lynch; he is 5-foot-5 and up until a couple months ago, was a custodian in the K-State athletic department. Now he is on full scholarship; good for him.

6) Navy 22, Memphis 21— Tigers outgained Navy by 62 yards, but turned ball over four times (-3) and ran 30 less plays than the Middies. Navy scored the game-winning TD with 2:37 left, and outscored Memphis 13-0 in 4th quarter.

5) Kentucky 27, Florida 16— Last time Kentucky beat Florida in football, I had a full head of curly hair; Wildcats won 10-3 that day, way back in 1986- think I weigh less now, though. Anyway it was a long time ago- Kerwin Bell was the Gators’ QB that day, Galen Hall was the Florida coach. Jerry Claiborne was Kentucky’s coach.

4) Clemson 28, Texas A&M 26— Tigers held on to win in last minute on a rainy night in Texas. Not sure how teams at this level juggle two QB’s, like Clemson is trying to do.

3) Ole Miss 76, Southern Illinois 41— This is a misleading score, since Salukis are a I-AA team, and led 38-35 at halftime. Red Flag for the Rebels here, after their win LW over Texas Tech.

2) Minnesota 21, Fresno State 14— Visiting Bulldogs were on Minnesota 4-yard line with 1:25 to go, tried a halfback option pass, but it was a terrible pass and got picked off in end zone.

1) Kansas 31, Central Michigan 7— Jayhawks snapped a 46-game road losing streak; their last road win was September 12, 2009.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at NO 01:00 PM
NO -10.0
U 50.0

SF at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN -6.0
U 46.5

PIT at CLE 01:00 PM
CLE +3.5
U 41.0

JAC at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG +3.0
U 43.0

CIN at IND 01:00 PM
IND +1.0
O 47.5

BUF at BAL 01:00 PM
BUF +7.5
O 39.0

HOU at NE 01:00 PM
NE -6.5
U 49.5

TEN at MIA 01:00 PM
TEN +1.0
U 43.5

KC at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC -3.5
O 48.0

SEA at DEN 04:25 PM
SEA +3.0
O 42.5

WAS at ARI 04:25 PM
ARI -2.0
U 43.5

DAL at CAR 04:25 PM
CAR -2.5

CHI at GB 08:20 PM
CHI +7.0
O 46.5

[Udog]

Monday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Jets at Lions (-6 ½, 44 ½) – 7:10 PM EST - ESPN

SAM I AM READY

Although Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson saw action at quarterback on Sunday, former USC standout Sam Darnold is the first rookie from this past NFL draft to start a regular season contest. Darnold beat out veteran Josh McCown for the starting position looking to improve a Jets’ squad that finished 5-11 last season, capped off by four consecutive losses.

Darnold began the preseason by throwing a touchdown pass in a 17-0 shutout of the Falcons, but the Jets lost the final three exhibition contests. The Jets head to Ford Field coming off a dreadful 1-7 record on the road last season, while picking up only one cover, which came as 16 ½-point underdogs in a 31-19 setback at New Orleans. In case you were wondering, the only victory away from Met Life Stadium for New York came at Cleveland, 17-14.

HE AIN’T LION

Matt Patricia makes his head coaching debut for Detroit following a successful run as defensive coordinator of the Patriots. The Lions lost three of four preseason games, including both contests at Ford Field to the Browns and Giants. In the lone preseason victory at Tampa Bay, the Lions erased a 27-6 deficit to stun the Bucs, 33-30.

Patricia inherits a team that is coming off consecutive 9-7 seasons, but the franchise is seeking its first playoff victory since 1991. The Lions began 2017 with a solid 3-1 record and even owned a 6-4 mark through 10 games. However, Detroit split its final six games as nine wins was not enough to make the postseason for the second consecutive year.

FAST STARTERS

Since losing the infamous Calvin Johnson non-touchdown catch game at Chicago in 2010, the Lions have captured six of their past seven season openers. In this span, Detroit is 4-0 at Ford Field, including rallying from an early 10-0 deficit in a 35-23 victory over Arizona as two-point underdogs in 2017. The Lions are hosting a Week 1 Monday night affair for the first time since 2014, when Detroit blew out the other New York club by beating the Giants, 35-14 as 6 ½-point favorites.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time the Lions and Jets hooked up came back in 2014 at Met Life Stadium as Detroit grabbed a 24-17 triumph as two-point underdogs. Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns, while wide receiver Golden Tate hauled in eight receptions for 116 yards. The Jets’ signal-caller that day was Geno Smith, who compiled 209 yards passing to go along with a touchdown and interception as the Lions led by as many as 14 points in the second half.

The Jets won in their most recent trip to Ford Field in 2010 as Mark Sanchez threw for 336 yards in a 23-20 overtime victory. However, Detroit covered as a 5 ½-point home underdog.

LINE MOVEMENT

This game opened with the Lions listed as six-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, but has crept up to 6 ½ points at most outlets. The total opened at 44, but is up to 44 ½ and even 45 at several books. Last season, Detroit cashed the OVER in six of eight games at Ford Field, including three of four times in the favorite role.



Rams (-4 ½, 48) at Raiders – 10:15 PM EST – ESPN

CHUCKY’S BACK

Jon Gruden spent four seasons as the head coach of the Raiders from 1998-2001 as he lead Oakland to consecutive AFC West titles in his final two seasons. Gruden’s final game with the Raiders was the famous “Tuck Rule” game in the playoff overtime loss to the Patriots, which began New England’s dynasty. After a successful run as the analyst on ESPN’s Monday Night Football, Gruden is back in the East Bay looking to restore the Silver and Black to excellence.

The Raiders started 2017 with plenty of promise after beating the Titans and Jets by double-digits. However, Oakland fell apart by losing 10 of the final 14 games, while the Raiders scored 17 points or less in all 10 defeats. Following a 6-2 record at the Oakland Coliseum in their playoff run of 2016, the Raiders slipped to 4-3 at the Black Hole last season, while their other “home” game in Mexico was a 25-point blowout at the hands of the Patriots.

RAMMING AHEAD

In his first season as the head man in Los Angeles, Sean McVay helped ramp up a mediocre Rams’ attack as L.A. scored at least 30 points in eight games. The Rams captured their first NFC West title since 2003 by finishing 11-5 before getting tripped up by the Falcons in the Wild Card round. Quarterback Jared Goff threw 28 touchdown passes compared to seven interceptions, while running back Todd Gurley racked up 1,305 yards on the ground.

The Rams didn’t own much of a home-field advantage at the L.A. Coliseum by going 4-4, but Los Angeles posted a tremendous 7-1 road record, including five wins in the favorite role. However, the Rams put together a 3-2 ATS mark in those five road chalk affairs, but finished OVER the total in all five of those opportunities.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Los Angeles is making only its third appearance on Monday night football since 2013. The Rams were last on Monday night two seasons ago following their move from St. Louis as the 49ers blasted Los Angeles, 28-0 in the 2016 opener. In this same stretch, the Raiders own a 1-2 record on Mondays, with their last win coming in Mexico against the Texans in 2016. The last time the Raiders hosted a Monday night affair came in 2012 as they lost to the Chargers in the season opener, 22-14.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time Derek Carr saw the Rams back in 2014, the Raiders were destroyed in St. Louis, 52-0. The Rams jumped out to a 38-0 halftime lead as quarterback Shaun Hill threw two touchdown passes, while running back Tre Mason found the end zone twice. That season, the Raiders finished in last place of the AFC West at 3-13, while this loss was amazingly not the worst in franchise history as they suffered a 55-0 defeat to the Oilers in 1961.

The Raiders beat the Rams in L.A.’s last trip to Oakland in 2010 by a 16-14 count as three-point favorites. The last victory for the Rams on the road in this series came in 2006 by a 20-0 shutout as Steven Jackson rushed for 127 yards and two scores.

LINE MOVEMENT

In early May, CG Technologies released the Raiders as 1 ½-point favorites, but the Rams have flipped to a 4 to 4 ½-point favorite at most books. The total opened at 49 ½ before briefly dropping to between 47 ½ and 48 at many outlets.

[Udog]

Jets vs Lions NFL betting picks and predictions: Darnold debuts on Monday Night Football

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 44.5)

QUICK HITTER

The Lions and Jets face off at Ford Field on Monday night as New York looks to rebound from a dismal season on both sides of the football, and they will turn to rookie Sam Darnold to run the offense. However, that figures to be a tough task in his NFL debut as the Lions have a serviceable secondary led by Darius Slay, and if the Jets can’t establish the ground game early and often it will force their lackluster passing game to go to work. The Lions meanwhile have a laundry list of weapons offensively and, while the Jets defense can go punch-for-punch, it will take them a sequence or two to get acclimated to the crowd noise. Look for Stafford to dissect the Jets defense early in the first quarter and get in the endzone for the game’s opening score.

Prediction: First Score: Detroit Touchdown (+170)

HALF TIME BET

The Jets offense will live and die by the run early on, as Sam Darnold gets his bearings in NFL action, and with Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell carrying the rock they are more than capable of handling the load. The Lions don’t have the greatest defense and if the game plan goes according to Todd Bowles’ intentions the Lions defense will be on the field plenty in the opening half, and allow New York to continue building momentum offensively. If Ezekiel Ansah and company can plug the holes it will force the Jets to throw the ball, but for the first half the Jets should have their way on the ground and put up enough to eclipse the 8.5-point first half team total that seems to be incredibly low.

Prediction: First Half: Jets over 8.5

TEAM/PLAYER BET

One of the key matchups in this contest will be the skill set of the Detroit receivers against the shut down capabilities of the New York cornerbacks, with Golden Tate matched up with Trumaine Johnson and Marvin Jones lined up against Morris Claiborne. The Jets defense was woeful last season but with those two corners manning the secondary, alongside sophomore sensation Jamal Adams, and Leonard Williams leading a talented defensive line they are in much better shape this time around. However, Claiborne is going to get picked on in this contest, and with most of his matchups coming up against Jones, the WR1-A for the Lions will get himself into the endzone at some point in this game.

Prediction: Marvin Jones TD (+120)

FULL-GAME TOTAL

The Lions had the league’s worst running game last season and haven’t done much to rectify their woes, with the exception of drafting Kerryon Johnson, so you can be sure Detroit will be throwing the ball all game long. The Jets though will be hammering the rock on the ground, and if successful they should keep Detroit's offense off the field and allow the clock to run - keeping the total manageable until well into the second half. Both teams struggle to score on Monday Night Football as the Lions have stayed Under the number in 9 of their last 13 contests, while the Jets have played to the Under in four of their last five Monday night games and seven of their last 10 road games overall. This one should follow a similar script and come Under the 44.5 point total.

Prediction: Game Total: Under 44.5 (-110)

FULL-GAME SIDE

The Lions are favoured by a touchdown, as the oddsmakers are banking on a rocky start from Sam Darnold, and while that may still come to fruition Darnold’s performance shouldn't play much of a factor in the outcome of this game. Detroit will rely solely on the passing game to win and cover and that should allow New York’s defense to double-cover downfield and prevent the deep threat from burning them multiple times. Also, the Jets defense should be able to get to Matt Stafford and they should win the turnover battle in this game giving the Jets the chance to win the game outright, let alone cover the 6.5 points. Take the Jets to keep this one close.

Prediction: Game Side: Jets +6.5 (-110)

[Udog]

Rams vs Raiders NFL betting picks and predictions: Great expectations in L.A.

Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+4, 47.5)

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Jon Gruden’s return to the sidelines should give the Raiders, and their fans, something to be excited about but that novelty should wear out fast as they are in big trouble in this spot, despite playing at home on Monday Night Football. The Rams come into the regular season as one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl, as they added some big time pieces to an already impressive roster that should have no trouble eating up yards on a Raiders defense that was terrible last season, and is now without their cornerstone piece as they shipped Khalil Mack to the Bears. Los Angeles has so many weapons on offense and with Sean McVey having plenty of time to game plan for a lackluster Raiders defense, they should have no issues starting the season on the right foot and score the game’s first major.

Prediction: First Score: Los Angeles Rams Touchdown (+190)

HALF TIME BET

The Raiders will be leaning heavily on Derek Carr this season as they are going to be in plenty of shootouts, with their defense shaping up to be a bottom-five unit in the NFL, but luckily the Silver and Black have some nice pieces on the offensive side of the football. Jordy Nelson came over from the Packers, and both Marshawn Lynch and Amari Cooper are primed for a bounce back season, but they are going to be in tough against a Rams defense that features the best interior defensive line in football with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald stuffing the run. This should allow the Rams offense plenty of time to operate in the first half and the Rams will score at least two first half touchdowns.

Prediction: First Half: Los Angeles Rams Over 1.5 Touchdowns (+100)

TEAM/PLAYER BET

Los Angeles became a Super Bowl threat a season ago, thanks to the breakout season from both Todd Gurley and Jared Goff, and as the core of their team’s offense the Rams should be able to compete with anybody offensively. Furthermore, the Rams boast one of the league’s best defenses and should seriously be considered a threat to win the Lombardi Trophy and against the Raiders expect the Rams to attack the Oakland defense from a number of different directions. Despite the number of mismatches in favour of the Rams in this spot, the biggest could be Gurley against the Raiders run defense - and with a price tag of +400 for Gurley to score the game’s first touchdown it is too good to pass up in what looks to be a clock-work effort for the Rams.

Prediction: Gurley First TD (+400)

FULL-GAME TOTAL

The Raiders received a ton of criticism when they dealt Khalil Mack, and rightfully so, but the one consolation is that former Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther is taking over and he has shown he can game plan a pretty imposing defensive scheme. Oakland’s offense is still a decent group when healthy, and while the Rams defense is very imposing the Raiders should still be able to put up some points in this spot, whether it happens in garbage time or otherwise. We have already highlighted the dangerous Rams offense and with all things considered this game should eclipse the total. The Over is 7-3 in Oakland’s last 10 September games while the Rams have gone Over in seven of their last eight games on the road. This game follows a similar script.

Prediction: Game Total: Over 47.5

FULL-GAME SIDE

The Rams have covered in their last four meetings against the Raiders and the line has moved from -2.5 in favor of Los Angeles and spiked up to -4 thanks to the Khalil Mack trade. Los Angeles is a very dangerous team and if this game was at a neutral site the Rams would be favoured by at least a touchdown which indicates the separation between these two clubs. The Black Hole deserves some kind of consideration, as does hosting a Monday Night Football game, but when you look at these two teams side-by-side there is clearly a ton of separation and that should be reflected in the final score. It might be worthwhile buying up a few points, as well, as a double digit victory is a very plausible finish.

Prediction: Game Side: Rams -4

[Udog]

NFL Week 2 bettors hit Cowboys' odds early, briefly pushing line up against Giants
Patrick Everson

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys had little success in Week 1 at Carolina, but early bettors liked the Cowboys at home against the Giants in Week 2, moving the line from Dallas -3 to -3.5.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Two teams that combined for just 23 total points in Week 1 get together in the Sunday night game, both trying to avoid an 0-2 start.

Dallas was the more impotent offense, held scoreless through 3½ quarters before an Ezekiel Elliott 4-yard TD run and subsequent Dak Prescott 2-point conversion run. But that was it for the Cowboys, who lost to Carolina 16-8 as a 3-point road underdog.

New York debuted running back Saquon Barkley, the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, and he delivered a 68-yard fourth-quarter touchdown run. But the Giants were otherwise inept, losing to Jacksonville 20-15 as a 3-point home pup.

Despite Dallas’ flagging start, early bettors at the Superbook seem to like the Cowboys.

“We moved to -3.5 quickly on this game,” Murray said. “These teams look pretty even to me. Big game for the Cowboys. They need that one at home.”

Later Sunday night, the Superbook went back to the opener of 3.


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Green Bay took a collective gulp after Aaron Rodgers was carted off with a knee injury in the first half of the Week 1 Sunday nighter against Chicago. However, with the Packers down 20-0 at home, Rodgers came back in the second half and led a huge rally as Green Bay won 24-23 victory giving 7 points.

Rodgers missed a big chunk of last season with a shoulder injury, and the Pack missed the playoffs. This time, it appears he might be OK.

After reaching last year’s NFC Championship Game, Minnesota featured a new quarterback this season in Kirk Cousins and started with similar results. Cousins had two TD passes and no interceptions as the Vikings beat San Francisco 26-14 laying 6 points at home.

“The Vikings looked good today,” Murray said. “That line could move, depending on how the Packers look (Sunday night).”

Murray and his Superbook crew were almost prophetic with their weekly ritual on Sunday night games.

“We take them off the board when that prime-time game kicks off, as a pre-emptive move in case something like this happens,” he said of the Rodgers injury.

The line was still at 2.5 when the Superbook took the game down.


New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (Pick)

Defending AFC champion New England opened the 2018-19 campaign with a rather run-of-the-mill win and cover. The Patriots got out to a 21-6 halftime lead against Houston, then held on with relative ease for a 27-20 victory as a 6.5-point home chalk.

Jacksonville, which had New England on its heels in that AFC Championship Game, got the new season off to a good start. The Jaguars’ defense gave up one big Saquon Barkley TD run, but otherwise kept the New York Giants in check in a 20-15 victory laying 3 points on the road.

“Both teams had solid games today,” Murray said Sunday night. “I expect to need Jacksonville pretty big on Sunday.”

Indeed, after opening this game a pick ‘em, the Patriots moved to -1.5 in short order at the Superbook.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (no line)

Tennessee also got bit by the quarterback injury bug in Week 1, but in this case, Marcus Mariota left late in the third quarter and did not return after hurting his right elbow. The Titans were largely ineffective to that point, trailing 10-3 at Miami, then put up 17 fourth-quarter points before ultimately losing 27-20 in a pick ‘em game. There were two weather delays totaling nearly four hours.

Blaine Gabbert finished for Mariota, whose status is uncertain.

Houston welcomed the return of Deshaun Watson at quarterback, after he missed half of last season with a knee injury. But the Texans never really threatened New England, losing 27-20 as a 6.5-point road ‘dog.

“This game is off the board due to the Titans’ injuries,” Murray said, noting that left tackle Taylor Lewan suffered a concussion and wideout Delanie Walker dislocated an ankle, likely ending his season. “With a quarterback injury, it’s just too hard to say where we’ll open this line.”

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 1 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 9-4-1
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5-1
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+10, ML +425) at Saints, 48-40
Chiefs (+3.5, ML +165) at Chargers, 38-28
Redskins (+2.5. ML +115) at Cardinals, 24-6

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-8) vs. Bills, 47-3
Vikings (-6.5) vs. 49ers, 24-16
Patriots (-6) vs. Texans, 27-20

Kissing Your Sister

-- It's been said a tie is like kissing your sister. Kissing your sister sounds like a loss to me. Anyway, the Pittsburgh Steelers likely feel like they suffered a loss in their Week 1 game on the road against the rival Cleveland Browns. The Browns were more likely to come out of this game feeling good about themselves, erasing a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to snap a 17-game losing streak, albeit not with a victory. Still, their 0-0-1 record signifies Cleveland's best start since the 2004 season. How bad is that? It was also the league's first tie in the opening weekend of the regular season since 1971, and first in the NFL since Oct. 30, 2016.

Bad Beat Time...

-- It isn't officially football season until there is a bad beat. Moneyline bettors for the Chicago Bears (+7, ML +260) and 'under' (45) bettors took it in the shorts when Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (knee) returned from the medical tent, cart and locker room to play in the second half. The Packers ralled from a 20-0 deficit to pick up a 24-23 win against the Bears. Chicago kicked a field goal with 2:39 to go, taking a 23-17 lead. It appeared all hope with 2:13 to go in regulation and the Packers in their own end trailing by six with a 3rd and 10. However, Rodgers dropped one off to WR Randall Cobb across the middle and he did the rest, squirting free for a 75-yard touchdown to miraculously take a 24-23 lead. The 10 points in the final 2:39 push the total from 'under' to 'over', and it killed moneyline bettors who had watched the Bears tied or in the lead for the first 57:47 of the game.

Total Recall

-- The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon wreaked havoc on the Midwest and East Coast during Saturday's college football schedule, and the rain shield was firmly in place over Northeast Ohio for the Steelers-Browns game. The right call was the 'under' (41) in this one, as there were just seven points on the board at halftime, and 28 points on the board after three quarters. However, the Browns decided to resemble and NFL caliber club in the fourth quarter, and they took advantage of a couple of miscues by the Steelers to rally for a 14-point quarter and a tie. Even if there were a score in the overtime period, the 'over' was already in the books.

-- The highest total on the board was that way for a reason. In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New Orleans Saints battle, the Vegas oddsmakers weren't put off by the fact backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center for the suspended QB Jameis Winston. It was a smart call, as the Bucs nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 48 points. They posted 14 points in the first quarter, 17 points in the second and 10 points in the third before cooling off for just seven in the final period. The Saints scored 10 or more points in the first, second and fourth in this insanely entertaining battle under the dome. No rain here to slow things down.

-- The Buffalo Bills-Baltimore Ravens (38.5) was the lowest listed game on the board, but someone apparently forgot to tell the Ravens that they weren't a good offensively club. They ran roughshod over the Bills, firing out to a 26-0 lead to make 'under' bettors feeling uneasy. It got worse, as they took a 40-0 lead before the end of the third quarter when the Bills finally got on the board with a field goal.

-- There are three primetime games in Week 1, with one already in the books and an 'under' result 0-1 (0.0%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Buccaneers WR DeSean Jackson (concussion) suffered a concussion in Sunday's game in New Orleans. He'll have to go through the league's mandated concussion protocol before he is cleared to return.

-- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) checked out of the game against the New York Giants and he was unable to return.

-- Panthers TE Greg Olsen (foot) left Sunday's game against Dallas in the first half due to a foot injury, and he returned to the sidelined on crutches while wearing a walking. It's the same foot he injured in the 2017 season.

-- Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin (knee) sustained a sprained medial collateral ligament in the first half Sunday's game in Denver and he was unable to return.

-- It was a long afternoon for the Titans due to lengthy lightning delays. It got even longer when play resumed in Miami, as QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) suffered an elbow injury, and he missed most of the second half. TE Delanie Walker (ankle) suffered a dislocated ankle and associated fracture and he is expected to be out for the season.

Looking Ahead

-- The Ravens will look to carry over their momentum into Thursday's game with the Bengals in a battle of 1-0 clubs in the AFC North. Cincinnati has won seven of the past nine in this series straight-up while going 6-3 ATS during the span. Cincinnati has won five of the past six at Paul Brown Stadium against Baltimore while going 4-2 ATS. The underdog has cashed in seven of the past eight in this series, too. In addition, the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall between these rivals.

-- The Dolphins and Jets will do battle at MetLife Stadium and it has been a coin-flip series lately. The teams are 4-4 SU/ATS against each other over the past eight meetings, with a slight edge to the 'over' 5-3. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, however.

-- The Chargers and Bills each lost their opening games, although Buffalo was a lot worse overall in a 47-3 embarrassment in Baltimore. These teams met in Los Angeles last season, with the Chargers coming away with a 54-24 victory on Nov. 19 to cover a seven-point spread.

-- The Panthers will travel to meet the Falcons, and that never seems to end well for Carolina. They're 1-4 SU/ATS over the past five meetings, and they have lost three straight in Georgia. When these teams get together it's usually a defensive battle, as the 'under' is 8-1-1 over the past 10 meetings in this series, including 2-0 last year.

-- The Cowboys host the Giants are Jerry World, and Dallas is looking for its third straight win in this series. While Dallas is 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings, they won and covered both in 2017. The 'under has also cashed in each of the past four meetings in this series.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday’s six-pack

Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Bengals +3 (1,218)- W
2) Rams -4 (1,052)
3) Ravens -7.5 (907)- W
4) Vikings -6.5 (854)- W
5) Texans +6.5 (848)- L
6) Broncos -3 (807)- T (3-1-1)

Quote of the Day

”Tyrod (Taylor) got hit way too much.”
Cleveland guard Joel Bitonio, a master of understatement, after Taylor was sacked seven times by Pittsburgh Sunday

Monday’s quiz

Where did Aaron Rodgers play his college football?

Sunday’s quiz

Poulan Weed Eater Bowl used to be played in Shreveport, LA every New Year’s Eve; it is still played there, but goes by a different name now.

Saturday’s quiz

Green Bay won the first Super Bowl, 35-10 against the Chiefs.


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Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Packers 24, Bears 23— Epic comeback by Green Bay, which trailed 20-0 with 4:00 left in the third quarter; Aaron Rodgers left the field on a golf cart in the first half with an injured knee, his backup threw a pick-6 that gave Chicago a 17-0 halftime lead, but then Rodgers came back and led the Packers to a memorable win in this ancient rivalry.

When Chicago went ahead 10-0 in the second quarter, it was the first time they led Green Bay by 10+ points in any game since 2007— these teams play twice a year. Just a horrible way to start a coaching tenure for new Bears’ coach Matt Nagy, but they did look like an improved team.

Moving forward, Rodgers does seem to have a fairly significant knee injury, but also looks like he can play through it.

Buccaneers 48, Saints 40— Think Jameis Winston enjoyed this game? Bucs averaged 14.9 yards/pass attempt, had 31 points at the half and cruised to a divisional road win, handing Saints their fifth Week 1 loss in a row. There is a now a pretty good chance that Ryan Fitzpatrick will still be the starting QB when Winston’s suspension ends.

Three of Tampa Bay’s TD’s were on plays of 36+ yards; Saints threw 45 passes, ran the ball only 13 times. Drew Brees averaged 9.4 yards/pass attempt- not too shabby.

Ravens 47, Bills 3— If owned the Buffalo franchise, I’d damn sure want to know why we traded Tyrod Taylor, since the Bills made the playoffs last year for the first time in 19 years. This was a hideous performance on a dismal, rainy day— Nathan Peterman was 5-18 for 24 yards in this game- he might be the worst NFL QB since the strike replacement games in 1987.

If I was Colin Kaepernick’s lawyer, when his collusion trial starts we’d show video clips of Peterman starting an NFL game to show that there is collusion against Kaepernick ever suiting up again in the league.

Steelers 21, Browns 21— Speaking of Tyrod Taylor, he rallied Cleveland back from down 21-7 in 4th quarter to tie this game with 1:58 left on a rainy day by Lake Erie. Browns had FG blocked at end of overtime that would’ve won game, but this is only 2nd time in 20 years that Cleveland didn’t lose its season opener.

As for the Steelers, James Conner ran ball for 135 yards and two TD’s, caught five passes for 57 yards, as Le’Veon Bell’s leverage shrunk considerably.

This was the first NFL tie in Week 1 since Dolphins-Broncos in 1971.

Bengals 27, Colts 23— Bengals salted away this game with an 83-yard fumble return for a TD when Colts had completed a pass inside the Cincinnati red zone in the last minute.

Colts converted 11-17 on 3rd down; they picked off a Dalton pass on the first series, took over on the Cincy 9-yard line, but turned ball over themselves. Indy had 53 pass plays, 22 runs— I’m guessing that Frank Reich wants a more balanced offense than that.

Vikings 24, 49ers 16— Niners turned ball over four times (-3) as Garoppolo loses for first time in eight NFL starts- he completed only 15 of 33 passes. SF had ball in red zone four times, scored only 13 points. Vikings scored on a pick-6.

Jaguars 20, Giants 15— You think Tom Coughlin enjoyed this win? Jacksonville led 13-6 at half, then did nothing but punt in second half; their one 2nd half score came on a defensive TD. Giants’ rookie RB Barkley scored their only TD on a 68-yard run. Beckham caught 11 balls for 111 yards but no TD’s.

Patriots 27, Texans 20— New England started 11 of its 13 drives 75+ yards from end zone, lost field position by 10 yards, turned ball over three times (-1), but scored 24 yards on four red zone drives. Texans completely only half (17-34) their passes, averaging 4.3 yards/attempt.

Eagles 18, Falcons 12— Atlanta had ball in Philly’s red zone five times Thursday night, scored a total of 9 points- they lost despite a 13-yard edge in field position, which doesn’t happen much.

Philly had three red zone drives, scored 18 points. Eagles scored on three of their four drives that started outside their own 25- they scored zero points on the five drives that started 75+ yards from the goal line.

Dolphins 27, Titans 20— This game had two weather delays, took almost seven hours to play; game was 10-3 after the third quarter, so if you bet under, it was a long, miserable afternoon. Both teams returned a kickoff for a TD in the 4th quarter.

Miami won despite scoring only six points on four drives that started in Tennessee territory. Titans’ QB Mariota got hurt; former Jags’ QB Gabbert took his place.

Chiefs 38, Chargers 28— Patrick Mahomes was 15-27/256 passing with four TD’s, as Chiefs beat the Chargers for the 9th straight time. Tyreek Hill caught seven passes for 169 yards and two TD’s— he also had a 91-yard punt return for a score.

Mahomes was the 10th pick in the 2017 Draft; think the Browns would like to have taken him with the first pick?

Broncos 27, Seahawks 24— Denver/New England both turned ball over three times and won Sunday; that doesn’t happen a whole lot. Seattle turned turnovers into short TD drives of 15, 41 yards- they were outgained 470-306, had only 13 first downs. All three of Denver’s TD drives were 75 yards long- they had seven plays of 20+ yards, and 25 first downs.

Panthers 16, Cowboys 8— Former Dallas WR/current free agent Dez Bryant trolled Cowboys on social media after this game, which should really help him catch on with a new team. Rookie kicker Maher missed a 47-yard FG; the old kicker Dan Bailey hasn’t signed wth a new team yet.

Total yardage in this game was 293-232, Carolina; Panthers won field position by 17 yards. Teams combined to convert only 6-23 on third down.

Redskins 24, Cardinals 6— Washington led 21-0 at half, outgained Arizona 429-213, as Alex Smith won his Redskins’ debut and improved his career W-L record to 89-62-1. Washington ran ball for 182 yards, threw for 247— pretty good balance.