The bum's november college football best bets,news,stats etc. !

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 14

Ohio at Miami (OH)
The Bobcats head to Miami of Ohio tonight and face a Red Storm team that is 2-7 ATS in its last 10 home games. Ohio is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-2 1/2). Here are all of this tonight's NCAA Football picks.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Game 301-302: Ohio at Miami (OH) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 75.104; Miami (OH) 64.965
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 10; 53
Vegas Line: Ohio by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-2 1/2); Over

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4th Quarter Covers - Week 13

November 23, 2014

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 13th college football weekend as the season heads to the final two weeks of the regular season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Northern Illinois (PK) 21, Ohio 14: This Tuesday night game was tied halfway through the fourth quarter and Ohio out-rushed Northern Illinois in the game, not an easy feat. The Huskies answered a touchdown from the Bobcats with a 70-yard scoring drive, leaving Ohio with six minutes to go, down seven with the spread closing right at even after the Huskies were favored by four on the early opening number. Ohio seemed poised to answer going down the field with a big fourth down conversion and two other first downs, but on what looked like another first down conversion, Landon Smith fumbled, giving Northern Illinois the ball back with less than two minutes to go. Ohio had two timeouts left, but the Huskies converted a big third down play to run out the game.

Toledo (-7) 27, Bowling Green 20: Wednesday night MAC football featured a tight game with Bowling Green tying the score at 20-20 early in the fourth quarter. It took Toledo less than three minutes to answer, taking advantage of a strong kickoff return to push the lead back to seven with about ten minutes to go, sitting even with the closing spread. After matching punts, Bowling Green made good use of its next possession, getting inside the Toledo 30-yard line. Two sacks ended the threat as the Falcons went for it on fourth and long with over three minutes to go in the game. Bowling Green would force Toledo to punt again, but the Falcons wound up pinned on their own three-yard line and ultimately failed again on fourth and long for the their final chance.

San Diego State (-6) 30, Air Force 14: Air Force led 14-13 at the half and heading into the fourth quarter, the Falcons were still within range of the spread down nine after a late third quarter touchdown drive from the Aztecs. Air Force wound up with four turnovers in the game and twice early in the fourth quarter the Falcons were stopped going for it on fourth down. Down nine with fewer than three minutes on the clock, Air Force appeared to have a great shot to add points with even a field goal getting to even with the spread, but a Kale Pearson pass was intercepted and returned 56 yards for a touchdown to seal the game for the home favorite.

South Carolina (-25) 37, South Alabama 12: It was odd to see South Carolina as the team sitting at 5-5 going against 6-4 South Alabama with the Gamecocks needing a win to become bowl eligible. Early on it was a challenge, leading just 10-6 before an interception return for a touchdown put South Carolina up 17-6, but the Jaguars added a field goal to trail by just eight heading into the break. South Carolina managed just two field goals in the third quarter to lead by just 14, well short of the heavy favorite spread, but South Carolina would score two touchdowns in about a two minute span to take a 37-9 lead. A 31-yard South Alabama field goal in the final minutes would land the final score right on the closing number.

Ball State (-18) 45, Eastern Michigan 30: Ball State led 35-3 after a fumble return touchdown in the third quarter, seemingly in a complete control but with three consecutive scores, Eastern Michigan was within 19 and approaching the heavy underdog spread by the start of the fourth quarter. With two short drives, Ball State put the game away with a 45-16 lead with less than 11 minutes remaining, but Eastern Michigan kept playing, completing drives of 75 and 70 yards for two late touchdowns, the second of which spoiled the favorite cover.

Maryland (+6½) 23, Michigan 16: Michigan had a substantial yardage edge against Maryland in a game the Wolverines needed, but the scoring did not match up with the production with the familiar turnover storyline playing a role. Still Michigan led 16-9 and just past the favorite spread heading into the fourth quarter with the defense playing well, but Maryland tied the game early in the final frame. Michigan missed a field goal on its next drive and Maryland responded with another touchdown drive to take the lead with just six minutes to go and that would end up being the final score, leaving Michigan needing to beat Ohio State next week to become eligible for the postseason.

East Carolina (-20) 34, Tulane 6: East Carolina was in control of this game, but the Pirates led by just 14 at the half and they were short of the spread with a 20-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter. A Tulane field goal with 10 minutes to go in the game put the margin at just 14, but a few minutes later a touchdown put East Carolina past the favorite spread for the first time in the game. With less than a minute to go and the game in hand, East Carolina rushed in another touchdown to pad the final margin.

Wisconsin (-8) 26, Iowa 24: The Badgers took a 19-3 lead with just over five minutes to go in the third quarter, but it did not feel like a dominant performance. The game would tighten in a hurry as Iowa scored a touchdown just minutes later to get within eight with a successful two-point conversion. Aided by a critical and quite erroneous pass interference penalty, Iowa scored again early in the fourth quarter, but the attempt to tie with another two-point conversion failed. That allowed Wisconsin to go past the closing spread when the Badgers quickly answered with a 75-yard touchdown drive halfway through the final frame. Iowa would make things interesting with another touchdown drive to get back within two points, good enough to cover, but Wisconsin was able to run out the clock.

Texas Tech (PK) 34, Iowa State 31: After falling behind 14-0, Iowa State scored 24 straight points to lead by 10 well into the third quarter. By the start of the fourth quarter, Texas Tech was back in front by three after an 82-yard pass play. Early in the fourth quarter, the Cyclones took a four-point lead with a quick touchdown drive of only two plays, but then it was nearly 10 minutes of game clock before the next scoring play as Texas Tech failed on a fourth down try and Iowa State missed a field goal. The Red Raiders hit on another big pass play to go back in front with just over four minutes to go. Iowa State would get to the edge of long field goal range on its final possession, but they couldn’t extend the drive as Texas Tech turned in a positive late season performance in an exciting game.

Oregon (-33) 44, Colorado 10: Spreads in Oregon games keep climbing, but the Ducks snuck by another one. Oregon led 30-3 heading into the fourth before adding a touchdown to slip just past the number with less than four minutes to go in the third quarter. Colorado would answer to get back within 27, but Oregon completed the scoring trade to lead 44-10 heading into the fourth. Colorado seems like a good candidate for a backdoor cover, but in three possessions each in the final frame neither team crossed midfield.

Louisville (+2½) 31, Notre Dame 28: The Irish led by three late in the third quarter, but Louisville completed an 81-yard drive late in the third to lead 24-20. With another long scoring drive, the Cardinals started to pull away with a 31-20 lead early in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame quickly answered to get back within three and then the Irish got the big play they needed with a sack pushing Louisville back 14 yards on a key third down play. That made the field goal attempt much tougher and Louisville missed the try. The Irish were down inside the Louisville 10-yard line with under two minutes to play before getting backed up with a sack of their own. Still, the Irish seemed headed for overtime with a 32-yard field goal attempt but that kick also failed as the Cardinals escaped with a big win in South Bend.

North Texas (-2) 17, Florida International 14:North Texas led 14-0 early in this matchup but as they have done all season, Florida International put together points without its offense, scoring on a punt return and an interception return to tie the game just before halftime. With just seconds left in the third quarter, North Texas took a three-point lead with a short field goal. The Panthers had the best scoring chance in the fourth quarter, but it was Florida International giving away the big turnover with an interception in the end zone to end the threat as North Texas wound up with the win and narrow cover.

Arizona State (-14) 52, Washington State 31: This line dropped dramatically before kickoff and early on the underdog certainly looked like the side to be on with a back-and-forth start leaving Washington State up 24-21 at the half. Arizona State took a 28-24 run heading into the fourth and then the Sun Devils scored 24 points consecutively in the fourth quarter to pull away with a 52-24 lead before Washington State added a touchdown in the final minute which was not enough to impact the spread.

UL-Monroe (-6½) 30, New Mexico State 17: New Mexico State trailed by just three with less than two minutes to go in the third quarter before disaster struck the Aggies with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown to put UL-Monroe up by 10. New Mexico State was a home underdog with more than triple the rushing yards of its opponent, but they came up short as Monroe would add a fourth quarter field goal to pull away with a 13-point edge and the Aggies could not get the late spread-stealing touchdown.

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Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 13

November 24, 2014


Week 13 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Alabama (W-L vs. Western Carolina 48-14)
There was a point that Bama was only up 17-14 in the second quarter against Western Carolina.

2) Oregon (W-W vs. Colorado 44-10)
Marcus Mariota has probably made himself the Heisman favorite at this point.

3) Florida State (W-L vs. Boston College 20-17)
Is there such a thing as an FSU game which doesn't end in a heart attack anymore?

4) Mississippi State (W-W vs. Vanderbilt 51-0)
The Bulldogs might be best served if Alabama wins next week. If so and they win the Egg Bowl, they should be in the playoff.

5) TCU (Bye)

6) Ohio State (W-L vs. Indiana 42-27)
The Bucks really needed to be more impressive than this to move up in the CFP rankings.

7) Baylor (W-L vs. Oklahoma State 49-28)
The Bears were more impressive than OSU, but can they move up and at least threaten to get into the playoff?

8) Ole Miss (L-L vs. Arkansas 30-0)
Remember when the Rebels were waltzing towards the playoff? They're waltzing towards a lousy bowl bid now.

9) UCLA (W-W vs. USC 38-20)
The Bruins are now one more win away from going to the Pac-12 title game.

10) Georgia (W-W vs. Georgia Southern 55-9)
Nick Chubb posted yet another 100+ yard game this week, albeit against weak competition.

11) Michigan State (W-W vs. Rutgers 45-3)
The Spartans now have two straight great results since choking against Ohio State.

12) Kansas State (W-W vs. West Virginia 26-20)
Kansas State's win spells good news for the rest of the Big XII teams fighting for a spot in the CFP.

13) Arizona State (W-W vs. Washington State 52-31)
The Sun Devils are still alive for the Pac-12 South, but they have to beat Arizona next week.

14) Auburn (W-L vs. Samford 31-7)
Something definitely isn't right with Auburn going into the Iron Bowl.

15) Arizona (W-W vs. Utah 42-10)
The Wildcats are the first to really put the Utes in their place this year.

16) Wisconsin (W-W vs. Iowa 26-24)
Give Melvin Gordon another 200 rushing yards.

17) Utah (L-L vs. Arizona 42-10)
It looks like the magic has run out of the Utes this year.

18) Georgia Tech (Bye)

19) USC (L-L vs. UCLA 38-20)
The Trojans are now staring a 7-5 season and a trip to a third-tier bowl in the face after losing the battle of LA.

20) Missouri (W-W vs. Tennessee 29-21)
The Tigers keep defying the odds, and they are now one win away from a second straight SEC Championship Game appearance.

21) Oklahoma (W-W vs. Kansas 44-7)
One week after Melvin Gordon set the FBS record for the most rushing yards in a game, Samaje Perine killed that mark.

22) Clemson (W-L vs. Georgia State 28-0)
Clemson really hopes that its defense can put up a big fight next week to break the hex against South Carolina.

23) Nebraska (L-L vs. Minnesota 28-24)
This should finally be the year that Bo Pelini is handed his pink slip.

24) Louisville (W-W vs. Notre Dame 31-28)
Reggie Bonnafon is one of the many remarkable freshmen quarterbacks coming up in the ACC.

25) Minnesota (W-W vs. Nebraska 28-24)
Maybe the CFP committee was justified in keeping this team in the Top 25 after all.

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College Betting Recap - Week 13

November 23, 2014


Overall Notes

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 44-16
Against the Spread 31-28-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 42-18
Against the Spread 31-28-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 19-34


The largest underdog to cash
Wake Forest (+13.5, ML +450) vs Virginia Tech, 6-3 (2OT)

The largest favorite to cash
Georgia (-42.5) vs Charleston Southern, 55-9
Top 25 Notes

-- The Top 10 fared pretty well, but there was one casualty. Mississippi ran into red-hot Arkansas, and it wasn't even close. The Hogs took care of Hotty Toddy by a 30-0 count, as the Rebels limp into the Egg Bowl next weekend.

-- Florida State nearly joined Ole Miss in the loser's lounge, but they managed a 20-17 win against Boston College.

-- Nebraska could not hold off Minnesota in Lincoln, allowing a game-winning touchdown with 3:25 left in regulation. The Huskers were unable to respond.

-- Arizona State rebounded with a 52-31 victory over Washington State, improving to 3-1 ATS over their past four home games.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- It was a weekend for the underdogs in the ACC. In seven league games, the underdog went 6-1 ATS, including the conference picture changing 45-20 win by North Carolina at Duke. ... Virginia crushed Miami-Florida by a 30-13 count despite being a short 'dog, and the loss drops the 'Canes to 1-4 SU/ATS on the road this season. UVA wrapped up the season 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS at home. ... The worst game of the entire weekend in all leagues was in Winston-Salem, as Virginia Tech-Wake Forest played to a scoreless tie through regulation. In the extra sessions it was a field goal fest, with Wake mercifully finishing off the Hokies by a 6-3 count in double-overtime.

-- For the second straight week, we have a new single-game all-time rushing king. Oklahoma's RB Samaje Perine rolled for an FBS-record 427 yards in a 44-7 win against Kansas. The ink was barely dry in the record book after Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon set the record last weekend. ... Kansas State picked up a quality road win at West Virginia Thursday night, 26-20. K-State has covered seven of their past eight heading into next week's game against Kansas. ... Oklahoma State snapped a five-game non-cover streak with a 49-28 win at Baylor. The Bears entered 3-1 ATS in four home games, but they're now just 2-3 ATS in their past five games overall.

-- The 'dogs were barking in the Big Ten Saturday, too. ... In seven games, the underdogs hit in five games, with only Michigan State and Northwestern covering as favorites. ... Everyone in the Big Ten scored at least one touchdown except for Rutgers, who was held to just three points by Sparty. It was surprising as the 'over' was 4-1 in the past five for Rutgers. ... Indiana stepped up and had over 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns from Tevin Coleman, keeping Ohio State within arm's distance all day. The Hoosiers easily covered the 36.5-point number. Ohio State entered last week's game 6-1 ATS in their previous seven, but they have now failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

-- Order was restored by favorites in the Pac-12. Only Arizona covered as an underdog, winning outright at Utah by a 42-10 score. ... Oregon barely covered a 33-point spread, winning 44-10. A scoreless fourth quarter poured cold water on the 'over' (74), which never was even close. ... In the battle of L.A., it was UCLA winning 38-20 against Southern California. The Bruins started the season 1-7 ATS, but they have covered three in a row heading into the season finale against Stanford. ... The Cardinal won the 'Big Game' 38-17 against California, and 'over' (56) bettors were left just one point short. Ouch.

-- ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit and Desmond Howard frankly do not care for FCS vs SEC matchups in late November, and it made for a boring week of games in the league. Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina paid the athletic budgets for five institutions Saturday, and there were no near-upsets, as expected. ... The Missouri-Tennessee game was pretty entertaining. The Tigers pulled out a 29-21 win despite being five-point dogs. Mizzou has won five straight, and covered three in a row heading into their big tilt against Arkansas. The Hogs blasted Ole Miss, and they have posted back-to-back shutouts. Arkansas has covered four in a row, and nine of the past 10 and the under has cashed in three straight.

Mid-Major Report

-- In Conference USA action, North Texas continues their late-season push to respectability, especially at home. They finished the season 4-2 SU/ATS in six home games. ... Old Dominion held off Louisiana Tech in OT, 30-27. It was a shocking setback for the Bulldogs, as they entered on a five-game win streak, and 8-2 ATS in their first 10 games.

-- Everything went according to plan in the Mountain West. Favorites cashed in five of the six games, with only UNLV covering at Hawaii. The Warriors have won back-to-back games for the first time this season. They head to Fresno State for the regular season finale. Hawaii is 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in five games on the mainland this season. ... Colorado State crushed New Mexico 58-20, covering for the third straight game, and for the seventh time in nine games. The 'over' has also cashed in four straight for the Rams.

-- In Sun Belt action, Louisiana-Monroe buried New Mexico State in Las Cruces by a 30-17 count. The under is 7-4 for ULM this season, while the under has hit in three of the past four for the Aggies after the over his in six straight from Sept. 6-Oct. 11. ... It took a while to get acclimated, but Appalachian State finally appears to be comfortable at the FBS level. They won as an eight-point underdog at Louisiana-Lafayette, 35-16. App State has won five in a row, and they're 4-1 ATS during the span.

Bad Beats

-- If you had Florida Atlantic on the moneyline at Middle Tennessee...ouch. FAU +240 led the entire game until the Blue Raiders converted a fourth down for a game-winning touchdown with 19 seconds left in regulation.

-- Brave souls who took the 'under' (68) in the OK State-Baylor game looked to be in good shape after 45 minutes, with Baylor up 35-14. However, the teams combined for 28 points in the fourth, including 21 points in the first 4:16, to turn a winning under ticket into a loser really quickly.

-- Minnesota trailed Nebraska 24-21 heading to the fourth quarter, and the 'over' (53) looked to be in good shape. But the first 11 1/2 minutes of the final stanza was scoreless, and a late Minnesota touchdown closed the scoring just one point short.

-- 'Over' (63) bettors were feeling good about themselves in the Fresno State-Nevada game, with 58 points after three quarters. However, the only scoring in the fourth was a Fresno safety. That's it.

-- In the islands, UNLV-Hawaii combined for 35 points, making an under look like a good possibility. However, the two teams exploded for 37 combined points in the fourth to push the total over 56.

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ACC Report - Week 14

November 25, 2014


It's the final weekend of the Atlantic Coast Conference schedule, and it's a bit anti-climactic. The ACC Championship Game is already set for Florida State and Georgia Tech. However, there are still a ton of interesting games.

Virginia and Virginia Tech play their rivalry game not only with state bragging rights on the line, but the winner will also become bowl eligible. The Bluegrass State bragging rights are also on the line, and Louisville faces a Kentucky team which has been a little better than usual. Clemson's Dabo Swinney also tries to solve his kryptonite, a.k.a. South Carolina in the Palmetto State battle. The Peach State also has bragging rights on the line. The Yellow Jackets are into the title game, but beating Georgia would be another nice feather in their caps. The Tar Heel State also has a heated contest between rivals, and of course there is Florida-Florida State. The Gators might be down, but wouldn't they love to spoil FSU's possible playoff spot and national title aspirations.


2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 6-5 3-4 7-4 4-6-1

Clemson 8-3 6-2 4-7 4-7

Duke 8-3 4-3 6-4-1 2-8

Florida State 11-0 8-0 3-8 4-7

Georgia Tech 9-2 6-2 7-4 6-5

Louisville 8-3 5-3 6-4 3-6-1

Miami (Fla.) 6-5 3-4 5-6 3-8

North Carolina 6-5 4-3 5-6 5-5

North Carolina State 6-5 2-5 6-5 5-5-1

Pittsburgh 5-6 3-4 4-6-1 5-5-1

Syracuse 3-8 1-6 4-7 2-8-1

Virginia 5-6 3-4 7-3-1 3-8

Virginia Tech 5-6 2-5 4-7 3-7

Wake Forest 3-8 1-6 6-5 3-8


Virginia at Virginia Tech (Fri. - ESPN, 8:00p.m. ET)

This is an interesting game. As mentioned above, the lose goes home with no bragging rights, and the winner not only owns the Commonwealth for a year, but also becomes bowl eligible. The Cavaliers are favored by one point in this one, and the trends are a little mixed in the head-to-head department. UVA is just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, but the favorite is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. And the road team has covered five of the past seven. For Virginia, two out of three ain't bad. The Hokies played perhaps the ugliest game of the season last week at Wake Forest, going scoreless in regulation before falling to Wake 6-3 in double-overtime. Virginia is 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 games, while Virginia Tech has failed to cover in their past five home games. The Gobblers are also 2-11-1 ATS in the past 13 against a team with a losing record. The Hoos aren't much better, going 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 road games against a team with a losing home record.

Kentucky at Louisville (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Kentucky heads into this rivalry game 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, although the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six. The Wildcats seemed to run out of steam a few weeks ago after appearing to have turned a corner. They're just 1-4 ATS in the past five games, and 0-7 ATS in their past seven games in the month of November. Louisville picked up a scintillating win at Notre Dame last week, and they're now 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games. The Cardinals are also 4-0 ATS in their past four against the SEC, but just 3-10 ATS in their past 13 home games against a team with a losing road record. Louisville is favored by 13 points in this one.

South Carolina at Clemson (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

The Gamecocks have had the number of their rivals from the upstate lately, winning five straight. The last time the Tigers tasted victory against the 'Cocks was a home game back on Nov. 29, 2008. Not only has South Carolina won five straight, but they've covered the past five, and seven of the past eight. The status of QB DeShaun Watson (knee) is in question, and backup QB Cole Stoudt (shoulder) is dealing with a sore shoulder, too. Could Clemson potentially be playing its biggest rivalry game with their third-string quarterback? That might be why the game is off the board at a lot of shops. The game opened with Clemson inexplicably favored by 4 1/2 points.

Georgia Tech at Georgia (SEC Network, 12:00 p.m.)

The Peach State battle has some added excitement with both teams fighting for their 10th win of the season. Georgia Tech is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five trips between the hedges, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five meetings overall with the Bulldogs. The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this rivalry. Both teams are hot against the number lately, with Ga. Tech going 4-0 ATS in the past four, and 4-1 ATS in the past five games. UGA is 5-1 ATS in the past six, and 4-0 ATS in the past four against a team with a winning record. However, the Dawgs are just 6-13-1 ATS in the past 20 home games against a team with a winning road record. Trends point to this game being a high-scoring affair, too. The over is 8-1 in Georgia Tech's past nine road games, and 7-1 in their past eight non-conference tilts. The over is also 5-0 in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. For UGA, the over is 4-1 in their past five non-conference battles, 20-6 in their past 26 games overall and 19-7 in the past 26 at home.

Syracuse at Boston College (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

Boston College is bowl eligible, but they can improve their standing with another win. The Eagles find themselves favored by 11, and most trends point to a cover. They're 5-0 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing home record, and 11-5 ATS in their past 16 home games overall. Syracuse is just 1-5 ATS in their past six in November, although they are 4-1 ATS in their past five road outings. The under might be a better play, as the under is 5-0 in Syracuse's past five, and 6-1-1 in their past eight against a winning team. The under is 5-2 in BC's past seven, although the over is 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a losing overall mark.

North Carolina State at North Carolina (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

The Tar Heels spoiled the league title hopes of a rival last week, and now hope to damage their other Triangle's rivals bowl prospects. The Wolfpack is bowl eligible, but the Tar Heels could drop them into a lower tier bowl rather than help them advance to a mid-tier game. NC State is 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games against a team with a winning record, and 3-8-1 ATS in their past 12 road games against a team with a winning home mark. UNC is 5-1 ATS in their past six overall, 4-1 ATS in their past five againts a team with a winning mark and 15-7 ATS in their past 22 home outings. The Wolfpack are 5-2 ATS in the past seven head-to-head battles, and the underdog has cashed in 12 of the past 16 in this rivalry.

Florida at Florida State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)

The Gators dealt their rival Georgia a costly loss a few weeks ago, and now they hope to step up for their departing coach and spoil the defending champs' chances of making the four-team playoff and repeating as national champs. Florida is 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, but they're 12-25-1 ATS in their past 38 against a winning team and 3-8 ATS in their past 11 non-conference battles. FSU is 3-8 ATS this season, and 1-5 ATS in their past six at home. The favorite has connected in 13 of the past 16 meetings in this series. The under has hit in eight of the past 10 meetings, and the undeer is 7-2 in the past nine meetings in Tallahassee.

Wake Forest at Duke (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)

Wake Forest is horrible, and their offense cannot score. They hit rock bottom last weekend by going scoreless in regulation, but somehow scratched out a 6-3 double-overtime win against Virginia Tech's equally pathetic offense. The Deacs are actually 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. Despite Duke's disappointing past two games, both home losses, they're still 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine home games and 7-2 ATS in their past nine at home. Still, 18 points seems awfully high given how poorly Duke is playing lately. While the road team is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings, Wake is also just 2-6 ATS in their past eight against Duke. The under looks like the play based on recent trends, with the under 11-4 in Wake's past 15 road games, and 20-7 in their past 27 in the ACC. The under is 9-1 in Duke's past 10 ACC games, and 6-1 in their past seven overall. However, the over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in this series, and 3-1-1 in the past five meetings at venerable Wallace Wade Stadium.

Pittsburgh at Miami-Florida (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)

Miami returns home after a disappointing 30-13 thumping at Virginia. They look to regroup in the sunshine, where they are 4-1 ATS in the past five home games. However, while Miami is also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 home games against a team with a losing road record, they're also just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 ACC battles and 6-13 ATS in their past 19 overall. Pitt is just 1-3-1 ATs in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark, and 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine overall. The favorite has hit in six of the past eight, and the Panthers are just 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings with the Canes. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four, however. In this series, the under is also 6-2 in the past eight battles.

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SBPI Rankings - Week 14

November 24, 2014


Listed below are my Top 25 Rankings through Saturday, Nov. 22.

The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team checks in statistically in each for Offense, Defense and Total.

I also include the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, ESPN’s Football Power Index & Jeff Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) adjusted RATING and RANK:

TOP 25 RATINGS
Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule
Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank
Alabama 5 6 2 2 1 1 1 310.4 1
Michigan State 1 3 1 10 8 12 10 283.5 2
Georgia 5 21 5 8 9 3 2 275.5 3
Baylor 2 12 3 5 6 4 3 269.5 4
Ohio State 4 14 4 7 7 9 11 262.6 5
Auburn 11 50 15 15 16 8 6 262 6
Mississippi 42 11 13 18 19 5 7 258 7
TCU 7 23 7 6 5 11 8 257 8
Mississippi State 12 29 9 4 4 6 5 248.5 9
Arkansas 23 45 25 - - 16 17 247.5 10
Louisville 57 2 10 24 23 - 26 239.4 11
West Virginia 41 33 31 - - - 27 237.4 12
LSU 65 16 35 - - 15 12 236 13
Miami, Fl. 29 23 18 - - - 36 235.3 14
Wisconsin 47 5 10 14 14 14 14 234.2 15
Boise State 10 23 8 25 25 - 37 229.3 16
UCLA 16 67 35 9 10 13 15 228.1 17
Florida 72 9 31 - - 22 20 227.2 18
Stanford 71 7 21 - - 20 24 224.5 19
USC 18 55 29 - - 17 21 224.4 20
Clemson 67 3 15 23 24 - 23 224.4 21
Oregon 3 78 25 3 3 2 4 221.3 22
Missouri 68 15 35 17 17 - 19 219.5 23
Oklahoma 42 37 38 20 18 7 9 219.4 24
Kansas State 36 45 40 11 11 18 13 214.2 25

New breakdown we will add each week is showing where each Top 25 team ranked in the week’s prior SBPI:

RATINGS COMPARISON
Team Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14
Alabama 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Michigan State 5 6 3 3 3 2 2 2
Georgia 19 4 6 6 7 6 3 3
Baylor 3 3 5 4 6 5 4 4
Ohio State 12 13 10 7 5 8 6 5
Auburn 1 1 2 2 2 4 7 6
Mississippi 6 5 4 5 4 3 5 7
TCU 7 12 7 10 9 7 8 8
Mississippi State 9 7 9 8 10 14 10 9
Arkansas 27 20 22 23 24 25 15 10
Louisville 18 17 18 21 20 15 14 11
West Virginia 13 18 15 14 13 11 11 12
LSU 17 10 13 12 8 9 12 13
Miami, Fl. 36 25 20 16 14 10 9 14
Wisconsin 28 33 33 24 23 18 16 15
Boise State 33 35 28 19 19 20 24 16
UCLA 29 29 27 31 27 22 20 17
Florida 31 31 30 29 26 24 23 18
Stanford 16 15 19 18 22 19 18 19
USC 11 9 12 11 15 12 13 20
Clemson 4 8 11 9 11 13 17 21
Oregon 30 34 26 27 25 21 19 22
Missouri 21 44 40 34 31 30 25 23
Oklahoma 10 19 16 17 12 17 22 24
Kansas State 24 26 21 22 17 23 21 25

Here are an additional few teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25:

#29 Georgia Tech
#30 Marshall
#35 Arizona State
#44 Colorado State
#49 Minnesota
#52 Arizona
#57 Florida State

Conference Breakdown

AAC: 0
ACC: 3
Big 10: 3
Big 12: 5
CUSA: 0
IND: 0
MAC: 0
MWC: 1
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 9
SUN: 0

Strength of each conference taking average ranking of ALL TEAMS:

SEC: 28.79
Pac-12: 45.08
Big 12: 47.20
ACC: 48.29
Big 10: 55.93
IND: 69.00
MWC: 77.92
CUSA: 82.85
AAC: 84.00
SUN: 90.00
MAC: 90.69

Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams.

TOP 10 NON-POWER 5
Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule
Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank
Boise State 10 23 8 25 25 - 37 229.3 16
Marshall 7 16 5 19 20 23 34 202.7 30
Memphis 45 13 14 - - - 43 200 34
BYU 29 34 25 - - - 46 197.4 37
Utah State 57 9 17 - - - 50 197 38

For each of comparison remember I have adjusted “SAG” ranks to just show FBS/1A teams – that gives a better feel for where he ranks the FCS teams compared to the College Football SBPI.

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Thursday's Tip Sheet

November 24, 2014


While the NFL has claimed Thanksgiving as its holiday, college football is bringing two intriguing matchups to the table Thursday night as both Texas and Texas A&M continue their Thanksgiving tradition, just not against each other. Here is a look at the Thursday night games in the Big XII and SEC.

Matchup: TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns
Venue: Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET FOX 1
Line: TCU -6, Over/Under 56½
Last Meeting: 2013, Texas (+2½) 30-7 at TCU

TCU appears to be sinking in the national playoff picture as the Horned Frogs may never recover from the narrow 34-30 win over lowly Kansas. With Iowa State up next this is the last opportunity TCU has to impress the committee, getting this national spotlight game Thanksgiving night. Baylor seems poised to pass TCU as the head-to-head meeting may grow in importance and next week the Bears will get to play a highly regarded Kansas State team. The Big XII may get left out entirely with some momentum behind Ohio State’s inclusion and if Mississippi State and Alabama both win convincingly this week it may not matter as the SEC will likely get two teams in.

TCU’s season may ultimately be remembered for what could have been if not for 11 minutes of trouble in Waco in October. TCU led the game at Baylor 58-37 with less than 12 minutes on the clock after Marcus Mallet scored on an interception return touchdown but the Frogs could not get a single stop on defense and the offense failed in several key third down plays, missing the chance to take time off the clock. Ultimately Baylor scored 24 straight points to close the game and that is the difference between TCU being a lock for the national playoff compared with current less promising position.

For Texas a season that started somewhat disastrously has turned to a season of quiet promise with three straight November wins for the Longhorns. After the somewhat contentious removal of Mack Brown as the head coach last season, Charlie Strong’s tenure in Austin featured an embarrassing 41-7 loss at home against BYU in the second game. Texas started the season 2-4 but now at 6-5 the Longhorns have a chance to put a stamp on an encouraging first page in the new era this week.

The turnaround has started with defense as Texas has played very tough defense in seven of the last eight games. Against some very good offensive teams Texas has held up pretty well and the challenge will be servere this week with a TCU squad that is scoring 46 points per game while averaging 542 yards per game. Trevone Boykin may not make it to New York but he is certainly on a short list of the top players in the nation this season with over 3,000 passing yards and over 500 rushing yards, accounting for 31 touchdowns.

Texas is not getting that type of production from the quarterback position as it has been a big adjustment with sophomore Tyrone Swoopes taking over for David Ash. Swoopes has delivered a handful of productive games but he is completing just 58 percent of his passes and he is not the same dynamic two-way threat. John Harris has been one of the top receivers in the Big XII with 59 catches and he should eclipse 1,000 receiving yards this week but the offense for the Longhorns has not been consistent and Texas really only has one quality win, beating West Virginia at home.

TCU is just 6-12-1 ATS vs. Texas since 1980 including just 8-3 ATS since 1988. TCU beat Texas in Austin in 2012 but the Frogs have just two S/U wins in 19 meetings since 1980. TCU is 34-42-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 1981 including going 1-7 ATS in the last eight instances going back to November of 2011. The win for Texas over West Virginia was the first for the Longhorns as a home underdog S/U or ATS since 1999 as Texas had failed in five straight home underdog situations prior to that game. This is just the seventh time Texas has been a home underdog since 2000 and Texas is also on a 16-5 ATS run in the final home game of the season going back to 1993.

Matchup: LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies
Venue: Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: LSU -3 Over/Under 49½
Last Meeting: 2013, at LSU (-5) 34-10

For two programs accustomed to being in the national conversation in recent years this Thanksgiving showdown will leave the loser potentially in a tie for last place in the SEC West if Arkansas beats Missouri. Both teams have matching 7-4 records but with 3-4 records in conference play. Neither team will be in the discussion for a major bowl spot and by the very high standards of both programs, it will be considered a bit of a down season regardless of this week’s result.

There have been major highs and lows for both teams with Texas A&M peaking early with a 5-0 start and the blowout win at South Carolina in the opening week before crashing with three straight lopsided losses including a 59-0 self-destruction in Tuscaloosa. The Aggies did rebound with a big win at Auburn to save some face in what has been a tough second half of the season.

LSU snuck by Wisconsin in the opening week and then started 0-2 in SEC play with a home loss against Mississippi State and an ugly 41-7 loss at Auburn. The young Tigers team did respond with three straight wins in October including giving Mississippi their first loss however. LSU seemed to have Alabama beat before a painful sequence led to an overtime loss and in its last game LSU was shut out against an Arkansas team that had lost 17 straight conference games.

Texas A&M started the season under sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill who posted huge early season numbers and emerged on the Heisman short list. Hill is no longer the starter as he struggled with the decline of the Aggies and was suspended for two weeks with highly touted freshman Kyle Allen taking the job. Allen has had mixed results and an Aggies offense that is not running the ball like it used to has seen a big scoring drop from the past two seasons. The defense for Texas A&M has also struggled in several matchups and the overall figures for the Aggies look much worse if you take away an incredibly weak non-conference slate.

Last season’s LSU offense posted 453 yards per game and nearly 36 points per game but glancing at the Sunday NFL scores and seeing rookies Alfred Blue, Jeremy Hill, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Zach Mettenberger all in prominent roles shows you how much this team had to rebuild. LSU has been much better on defense than last season with just 16 points per game allowed but the offense is getting very little done consistently in the passing game. Over the past three games LSU has scored a total of just 19 points but the 17-0 loss to Arkansas could be chalked up to a letdown after the demoralizing Alabama game. The team should be ready for this finale Thursday night after a bye week last week.

In the last trip to College Station LSU escaped with a 24-19 win but it was the worst game of the season for Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel as Texas A&M had five turnovers to surrender an early lead. Last season in Baton Rouge LSU crushed Texas A&M 34-10 with nearly double the yardage total as the Aggies were held under 300 yards for their lowest output of the season.

LSU has won and covered in the three recent meetings between these teams going back to the Cotton Bowl after the 2010 season and the Tigers are 8-4-1 ATS vs. Texas A&M since 1986. LSU is 44-28-2 ATS as a road favorite since 1984 including going 17-11-1 ATS since 2005 when Les Miles took over. LSU is 28-15 S/U on the road under Miles, though just 21-20-2 ATS and just 3-7-1 ATS the past three seasons. Texas A&M is 21-12-1 ATS as a home underdog since 1985 including going 5-2 ATS since 2009 in that role though the team is just 0-3 S/U and 1-2 ATS as a home underdog under Kevin Sumlin.

[StarDust Bum]

Thurs, Nov. 27

TCU at Texas, 7:30 ET
TCU: 23-9 OVER off 3 straight wins against conference rivals
Texas: 46-26 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

LSU at Texas AM, 7:30 ET
LSU: 10-2 ATS in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
Texas AM: 0-7 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games


Fri, Nov. 28

Virginia at Virginia Tech, 8:00 ET
Virginia: 7-0 UNDER against conference opponents
Virginia Tech: 1-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Ball State at Bowling Green, 1:00 ET
Ball St: 17-6 ATS in road games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game
Bowling Green: 9-0 UNDER as a home favorite

Northern Illinois at Western Michigan, 11:00 AM ET
N Illinois: 13-4 ATS off an upset win as an underdog
W Michigan: 7-0 ATS against conference opponents

Buffalo at Massachusetts, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 3-12 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Massachusetts: 5-1 ATS after playing a conference game

Western Kentucky at Marshall, 12:00 ET
W Kentucky: 8-2 OVER when the total is greater than or equal to 63
Marshall: 22-9 OVER in home games after playing 2 straight conference games

Toldeo at Eastern Michgan, 1:00 ET
Toldeo: 22-9 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
E Michigan: 7-16 ATS in all lined games

Nebraska at Iowa, 12:00 ET
Nebraska: 24-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Iowa: 18-4 ATS in home games after a game where they forced no turnovers

East Carolina at Tulsa, 8:30 ET
E Carolina: 14-4 OVER after a cover as a double digit favorite
Tulsa: 7-0 OVER in home games off 1 or more straight overs

Houston at SMU, 12:00 ET
Houston: 11-3 ATS after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers
SMU: 2-16 ATS in home games after being outgained by 225 or more total yds in their previous game

Navy at South Alabama, 3:00 ET
Navy: 16-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56
S Alabama: 4-13 ATS in home games

Arkanasas Missouri, 2:30 ET
Arkansas: 7-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Missouri: 5-1 OVER after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins

Stanford at UCLA, 3:30 ET
Stanford: 0-7 ATS after a win by 21 or more points
UCLA: 11-2 ATS in home games after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Arizona State at Arizona, 3:30 ET
Arizona St: 11-3 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Arizona: 11-24 ATS off an upset win as an underdog

Colorado State at Air Force, 3:30 ET
Colorado St: 12-4 ATS as a favorite
Air Force: 25-51 ATS off a loss against a conference rival

Central Florida at South Florida, 12:00 ET
Central FL: 30-16 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49
S Florida: 4-14 ATS in home games after playing 3 straight conference games

Akron at Kent State, 1:00 ET
Akron: 0-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Kent State: 24-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread


Sat, Nov. 29

Michigan at Ohio State, 8:00 ET
Michigan: 5-14 ATS after playing a game at home
Ohio State: 9-2 ATS after playing a game at home

Syracuse at Boston College, 12:00 ET
Syracuse: 21-9 UNDER off 2 straight losses against conference rivals
Boston College: 19-7 ATS after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Old Dominion at Florida Atlantic, 12:00 ET
Old Dominion: 1-5 ATS after playing a conference game
Florida ATL: 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Wake Forest at Duke, 12:00 ET
Wake Forest: 29-14 ATS in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
Duke: 1-9 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite

Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 4:00 ET
Tennessee: 16-6 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
Vanderbilt: 19-34 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

Minnesota at Wisconsin, 3:30 ET
Minnesota: 10-24 ATS in road games after playing their last game on the road
Wisconsin: 13-2 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs

Pittsburgh at Miami Florida, 3:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 6-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
Miami FL: 14-28 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders

Rutgers at Maryland, 3:30 ET
Rutgers: 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Maryland: 0-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Rice at Louisiana Tech, 12:00 ET
Rice: 23-39 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Louisiana Tech: 12-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite

North Carolina State at North Carolina, 12:30 ET
N Carolina St: 6-11 ATS as an underdog
N Carolina: 6-0 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

Illinois at Northwestern, 12:00 ET
Illinois: 12-2 ATS in road games after a game where they committed no turnovers
Northwestern: 3-12 ATS in home games after a win by 21 or more points

Purdue at Indiana, 12:00 ET
Purdue: 7-18 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Indiana: 15-5 OVER off 1 or more straight overs

Idaho at Appalachian State, 2:00 ET
Idaho: 38-62 ATS after playing a conference game
App St: 5-1 ATS in the second half of the season

Cincinnati at Temple, 12:00 ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival
Temple: 9-2 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs

Texas State at Georgia State, 2:00 ET
Texas St: 6-0 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games
Georiga St: 6-1 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders

West Virginia at Iowa State, 12:00 ET
W Virginia: 6-0 UNDER after playing 2 straight conference games
Iowa St: 5-1 UNDER after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games

New Mexico State at Arkansas State, 3:00 ET
New Mexico St: 10-21 ATS as an underdog
Arkansas St: 11-3 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

UAB at Southern Miss, 3:30 ET
UAB: 23-44 ATS as a favorite
Southern Miss: 1-8 ATS after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Wyoming at New Mexico, 3:00 ET
Wyoming: 25-47 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game
New Mexico: 9-1 ATS in home games off 3 straight losses against conference rivals

Utah State at Boise State, 10:15 ET
Utah State: 16-6 ATS against conference opponents
Boise State: 3-12 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game

San Jose State at San Diego State, 3:30 ET
San Jose State: 1-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
San Diego State: 8-2 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Washington at Washington State, 10:30 ET
Washington: 5-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Washington St: 12-35 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Baylor at Texas Tech, 3:30 ET
Baylor: 54-35 ATS as a favorite
Texas Tech: 1-8 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Georgia Tech at Georgia, 12:00 ET
Georgia Tech: 16-6 ATS in road games after a win by 21 or more points
Georgia: 23-9 ATS against ACC opponents

Kansas at Kansas State, 4:00 ET
Kansas: 4-15 ATS in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game
Kansas St: 12-3 ATS after playing a conference game

BYU at California, 3:30 ET
BYU: 22-8 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite
California: 5-14 ATS off a loss against a conference rival

Oregon at Oregon State, 3:30 ET
Oregon: 11-3 ATS in road games after playing a conference game
Oregon State: 1-5 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

Michigan State at Penn State, 3:30 ET
Michigan St: 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Penn St: 8-20 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game

Auburn at Alabama, 7:45 ET
Auburn: 14-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Alabama: 21-7 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Florida at Florida State, 3:30 ET
Florida: 35-17 ATS after a 2 game home stand
Florida State: 2-10 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Nevada at UNLV, 10:30 ET
Nevada: 4-13 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
UNLV: 6-0 ATS after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games

UL Monroe at Georgia Southern, 6:00 ET
UL Monroe: 0-6 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game
Georgia S: 13-4 ATS in all lined games

South Carolina at Clemson, 7:00 ET
South Carolina: 9-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Clemson: 1-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game

Hawaii at Fresno State, 7:00 ET
Hawaii: 22-9 ATS after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game
Fresno State: 19-6 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival

Utah at Colorado, 7:00 ET
Utah: 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers
Colorado: 9-28 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game

Connecticut at Memphis, 4:00 ET
Connecticut: 10-1 ATS after scoring 9 points or less last game
Memphis: 20-38 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Kentucky at Louisville, 7:00 ET
Kentucky: 1-9 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Louisville: 9-1 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs

Mississippi State at Mississippi, 3:30 ET
Mississippi St: 6-1 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game
Mississippi: 9-2 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers

Mid Tennessee State at Utep, 7:00 ET
Mid Tennessee St: 0-6 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival
Utep: 6-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

UL Lafayette at Troy, 12:30 ET
UL Lafayette: 5-1 ATS after playing a conference game
Troy: 5-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

North Texas at Tex San Antonio, 12:00 ET
N Texas: 14-28 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Tex San Antonio: 0-6 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Notre Dame at USC, 8:00 ET
Notre Dame: 34-18 UNDER as a road underdog
USC: 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF line watch: Don't miss key number for Notre Dame-USC

Spread to bet now

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans (-7)

Southern Cal opened briefly as a 6.5-point home favorite versus Notre Dame, and money quickly came in on the Trojans making them 7-point chalk in all locations. I expect more USC money to come in and push this line up higher, so bettors should lay the key number now before the line ticks up.

Notre Dame comes in off a close 31-28 home loss to Louisville. That was its third straight loss and its fourth loss over the past five games. Southern Cal also comes in off a loss to rival UCLA, getting blown out 38-20. Southern Cal is playing at home, so it will have an easier time getting up for this game, especially since the Trojans have revenge on their minds after losing 14-10 at Notre Dame last season. Lay the points with the Trojans now.

Spread to wait on

Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions (+13.5)

Michigan State was initially a 13-point road favorite at Penn State and money came in quickly on the Spartans, pushing the line higher. I anticipate this line going up further, especially after Michigan State won 45-3 last week while Penn State lost 16-14.

Penn State has a solid defense that only allows 16.2 points per game on 4.1 yards per play, so giving them close to two touchdowns presents solid value. Michigan State’s biggest wins this season have come against some really bad teams. Penn State took Ohio State to double overtime, so the Nittany Lions are capable of competing. Wait this game out and take Penn State at +14 points or more later in the week.

Total to watch

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Georgia Bulldogs (64)

This rivalry game has seen Georgia win five consecutive meetings. The Bulldogs appear to be in line for a sixth straight win as they are currently 13-point favorites over Georgia Tech. This series has been high-scoring lately, with the past five games averaging 61 points.

Georgia Tech and Georgia are both playing at an extremely slow pace this season. The Yellow Jackets rank 122nd in pace while the Bulldogs rank just 102nd in pace. However, the teams are averaging a lot of points per game: Georgia Tech (37.8) and Georgia (43.3). The two defenses have gone unnoticed. Georgia Tech allows just 24.1 points per game and Georgia allows only 20.5 points per game. Based on recent history, this total may be inflated a few points too high.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Tip Sheet

November 24, 2014


While the NFL has claimed Thanksgiving as its holiday, college football is bringing two intriguing matchups to the table Thursday night as both Texas and Texas A&M continue their Thanksgiving tradition, just not against each other. Here is a look at the Thursday night games in the Big XII and SEC.

Matchup: TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns
Venue: Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET FOX 1
Line: TCU -6, Over/Under 56½
Last Meeting: 2013, Texas (+2½) 30-7 at TCU

TCU appears to be sinking in the national playoff picture as the Horned Frogs may never recover from the narrow 34-30 win over lowly Kansas. With Iowa State up next this is the last opportunity TCU has to impress the committee, getting this national spotlight game Thanksgiving night. Baylor seems poised to pass TCU as the head-to-head meeting may grow in importance and next week the Bears will get to play a highly regarded Kansas State team. The Big XII may get left out entirely with some momentum behind Ohio State’s inclusion and if Mississippi State and Alabama both win convincingly this week it may not matter as the SEC will likely get two teams in.

TCU’s season may ultimately be remembered for what could have been if not for 11 minutes of trouble in Waco in October. TCU led the game at Baylor 58-37 with less than 12 minutes on the clock after Marcus Mallet scored on an interception return touchdown but the Frogs could not get a single stop on defense and the offense failed in several key third down plays, missing the chance to take time off the clock. Ultimately Baylor scored 24 straight points to close the game and that is the difference between TCU being a lock for the national playoff compared with current less promising position.

For Texas a season that started somewhat disastrously has turned to a season of quiet promise with three straight November wins for the Longhorns. After the somewhat contentious removal of Mack Brown as the head coach last season, Charlie Strong’s tenure in Austin featured an embarrassing 41-7 loss at home against BYU in the second game. Texas started the season 2-4 but now at 6-5 the Longhorns have a chance to put a stamp on an encouraging first page in the new era this week.

The turnaround has started with defense as Texas has played very tough defense in seven of the last eight games. Against some very good offensive teams Texas has held up pretty well and the challenge will be servere this week with a TCU squad that is scoring 46 points per game while averaging 542 yards per game. Trevone Boykin may not make it to New York but he is certainly on a short list of the top players in the nation this season with over 3,000 passing yards and over 500 rushing yards, accounting for 31 touchdowns.

Texas is not getting that type of production from the quarterback position as it has been a big adjustment with sophomore Tyrone Swoopes taking over for David Ash. Swoopes has delivered a handful of productive games but he is completing just 58 percent of his passes and he is not the same dynamic two-way threat. John Harris has been one of the top receivers in the Big XII with 59 catches and he should eclipse 1,000 receiving yards this week but the offense for the Longhorns has not been consistent and Texas really only has one quality win, beating West Virginia at home.

TCU is just 6-12-1 ATS vs. Texas since 1980 including just 8-3 ATS since 1988. TCU beat Texas in Austin in 2012 but the Frogs have just two S/U wins in 19 meetings since 1980. TCU is 34-42-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 1981 including going 1-7 ATS in the last eight instances going back to November of 2011. The win for Texas over West Virginia was the first for the Longhorns as a home underdog S/U or ATS since 1999 as Texas had failed in five straight home underdog situations prior to that game. This is just the seventh time Texas has been a home underdog since 2000 and Texas is also on a 16-5 ATS run in the final home game of the season going back to 1993.

Matchup: LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies
Venue: Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: LSU -3 Over/Under 49½
Last Meeting: 2013, at LSU (-5) 34-10

For two programs accustomed to being in the national conversation in recent years this Thanksgiving showdown will leave the loser potentially in a tie for last place in the SEC West if Arkansas beats Missouri. Both teams have matching 7-4 records but with 3-4 records in conference play. Neither team will be in the discussion for a major bowl spot and by the very high standards of both programs, it will be considered a bit of a down season regardless of this week’s result.

There have been major highs and lows for both teams with Texas A&M peaking early with a 5-0 start and the blowout win at South Carolina in the opening week before crashing with three straight lopsided losses including a 59-0 self-destruction in Tuscaloosa. The Aggies did rebound with a big win at Auburn to save some face in what has been a tough second half of the season.

LSU snuck by Wisconsin in the opening week and then started 0-2 in SEC play with a home loss against Mississippi State and an ugly 41-7 loss at Auburn. The young Tigers team did respond with three straight wins in October including giving Mississippi their first loss however. LSU seemed to have Alabama beat before a painful sequence led to an overtime loss and in its last game LSU was shut out against an Arkansas team that had lost 17 straight conference games.

Texas A&M started the season under sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill who posted huge early season numbers and emerged on the Heisman short list. Hill is no longer the starter as he struggled with the decline of the Aggies and was suspended for two weeks with highly touted freshman Kyle Allen taking the job. Allen has had mixed results and an Aggies offense that is not running the ball like it used to has seen a big scoring drop from the past two seasons. The defense for Texas A&M has also struggled in several matchups and the overall figures for the Aggies look much worse if you take away an incredibly weak non-conference slate.

Last season’s LSU offense posted 453 yards per game and nearly 36 points per game but glancing at the Sunday NFL scores and seeing rookies Alfred Blue, Jeremy Hill, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Zach Mettenberger all in prominent roles shows you how much this team had to rebuild. LSU has been much better on defense than last season with just 16 points per game allowed but the offense is getting very little done consistently in the passing game. Over the past three games LSU has scored a total of just 19 points but the 17-0 loss to Arkansas could be chalked up to a letdown after the demoralizing Alabama game. The team should be ready for this finale Thursday night after a bye week last week.

In the last trip to College Station LSU escaped with a 24-19 win but it was the worst game of the season for Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel as Texas A&M had five turnovers to surrender an early lead. Last season in Baton Rouge LSU crushed Texas A&M 34-10 with nearly double the yardage total as the Aggies were held under 300 yards for their lowest output of the season.

LSU has won and covered in the three recent meetings between these teams going back to the Cotton Bowl after the 2010 season and the Tigers are 8-4-1 ATS vs. Texas A&M since 1986. LSU is 44-28-2 ATS as a road favorite since 1984 including going 17-11-1 ATS since 2005 when Les Miles took over. LSU is 28-15 S/U on the road under Miles, though just 21-20-2 ATS and just 3-7-1 ATS the past three seasons. Texas A&M is 21-12-1 ATS as a home underdog since 1985 including going 5-2 ATS since 2009 in that role though the team is just 0-3 S/U and 1-2 ATS as a home underdog under Kevin Sumlin.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12, SEC heat up Thursday

November 26, 2014


LSU TIGERS (7-4) at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (7-4)
TV/Time: FS1, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: LSU -3.5, Total: 50.5

Two struggling SEC teams desperate for a win will collide on Thanksgiving night when LSU visits Texas A&M.

The Tigers are certainly talented, as they have victories this season against both Wisconsin and Ole Miss, but have also lost SU and ATS to Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. Overall they are 7-4 ATS while covering in each one of their victories and are coming off a bad loss to the Razorbacks by a score of 17-0 as 2-point underdogs on the road on Nov. 15. It was Arkansas’ first win against the Tigers in 18 tries as LSU managed a putrid 123 yards of offense and 2.3 yards per play.

The Aggies have had a similar season with huge wins over South Carolina and Auburn, but ran into a juggernaut in the middle part of their schedule as they were defeated by Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama by a combined 91 points over three consecutive games. They most recently absorbed a loss to Missouri on Nov. 15 by a score of 34-27 as 3.5-point favorites at home, bringing their ATS record this season to just 4-7, while they have covered only once in their past seven attempts.

The Aggies defense just could not hold the Tigers offense in check as they totaled 587 yards, which included 335 yards on the ground (6.8 YPC). LSU has won this matchup (SU and ATS) in each of the past three seasons while having an average margin of victory of 15.3 PPG.

Last year the Tigers dominated in a 34-10 game as 3-point favorites at home behind 517 yards of offense and two forced turnovers. Bettors should also know that LSU is an impressive 17-4 ATS (81%) in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in its previous contest since 1992 while Texas A&M is 33-18 ATS (65%) in home games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the same timeframe.

On the injury front, HB Kenny Hilliard (undisclosed) is out for the remainder of the season for LSU, while the Aggies come into this one without any significant omissions from their lineup.

The Tigers have had a solid year rushing the ball (204.5 YPG) as they rank 35th in the nation while gaining a meager 169.1 YPG through the air (112th in FBS) and just 28.0 PPG of offense (74th in nation).

QB Anthony Jennings (1,353 pass yards, 9 TD, 6 INT) has really struggled in the past two games, combining to go 20-for-48 (42%) for 163 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He is not leaned on much for this team as he has eclipsed 200 passing yards just once on the year.

HB Leonard Fournette (745 rush yards, 7 TD) has been a bright spot for this team as a freshman, as he has hit triple digits in rushing yards three times this season. HB Terrance Magee (471 rush yards, 3 TD) has also done well while averaging 5.4 YPC and is now the primary backup with Hilliard out for the year. WR Travis Dural (747 rec yards, 7 TD) has posted an excellent 21.3 yards per catch, but does not get the volume as he has caught a mere 14 balls over the past six games combined. Meanwhile, WR Malachi Dupre (277 rec yards, 5 TD) has also been a big red-zone threat while getting tons of yards per catch (21.3 avg).

The defense is what keeps this team winning, as it has allowed 16.4 PPG (5th in FBS) this year behind the strong play of LB Kwon Alexander (72 tackles, 7 TFL) and DL Danielle Hunter (63 tackles, 12 TFL).

Texas A&M has focused on the passing game and excelled with 321.2 YPG through the air (10th in nation) while adding 148.2 rushing YPG (88th in FBS), all resulting in them scoring the 23rd-most points in FBS (36.0 PPG).

The downfall of QB Kenny Hill (2,649 pass yards, 23 TD, 8 INT) has given way to freshman QB Kyle Allen (884 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) who has thrown seven touchdowns and two interceptions over the past two games while hitting on better than 65% of his passes each time. He has seen his attempts increase in each of the past three contests, and was rated the No. 1 pocket passer among college QB prospects coming into the year.

HBs Tra Carson (431 rush yards, 5 TD) and Trey Williams (412 rush yards, 5 TD) have combined to average 5.4 YPC while neither player has really had a breakout performance this season. WRs Josh Reynolds (746 rec yards, 12 TD), Malcome Kennedy (526 rec yards, 4 TD), Speedy Noil (513 rec yards, 4 TD) and Ricky Seals-Jones (443 rec yards, 4 TD) all have 40+ receptions on the year while Reynolds is coming off his best game of the season in which he caught five passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns.

The Aggies have not done well on the defensive side of things while giving up 27.7 PPG on the year (75th in nation) and have surrendered an average of 36.0 PPG and 584.5 total YPG over their past two contests. DL Myles Garrett (11 sacks, 46 tackles) and DB Deshazor Everett (65 tackles, 1 INT) will need to perform at their highest levels to have a chance come Thursday.

TCU HORNED FROGS (9-1) at TEXAS LONGHORNS (6-5)

TV/Time: ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: TCU -6.5, Total: 56.5

No. 5 TCU looks to get closer to a playoff berth as they travel to Austin to take on Texas on Thanksgiving night.

The Horned Frogs were off last week, which followed a major struggle in a narrow 34-30 win at 28-point underdog Kansas. However, TCU was still able to win its fifth straight game (3-2 ATS) where it has averaged 46.0 PPG. The Longhorns have had some ups and downs in head coach Charlie Strong’s first season, but the team is playing its best football right now.

Texas has won its past three games (SU and ATS) by a combined score of 95 to 36, which included a 33-16 win against then-No. 23 West Virginia. But that was the only ranked team the Longhorns have beaten, as they are 1-4 SU versus top-25 schools, with two of those defeats coming at home.

Last year, these two teams played in Fort Worth, with the 3-point underdog Longhorns winning, 30-7. Texas dominated the game, outgaining the Horned Frogs 415 to 246, including 187 to 45 on the ground. But in the first Big 12 meeting between these schools in Austin in 2012, TCU prevailed 20-13 by outrushing the Longhorns 217 to 86. Both schools have powerful betting trends against them, as excellent offensive road favorites (34+ PPG) facing an average defense (21 to 28 PPG allowed) after a win by six points or less are just 9-31 ATS (23%) in the past 10 seasons, but underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two straight conference wins facing an opponent coming off a road win are just 25-63 ATS (28%) in the past 10 seasons.

There are a couple of key offensive injuries in this game with TCU RB B.J. Catalon (shoulder) considered questionable to play, while Texas WR Jaxon Shipley (leg) has been upgraded to probable.

The Horned Frogs have been great on both sides of the ball this year, but it is the improvement of the offense that has this team within striking distance of the first college football playoffs. The offense ranks 2nd in FBS scoring (45.9 PPG), 8th in passing (323.6 YPG) and 28th in rushing (218 YPG).

Junior QB Trevone Boykin (3,021 pass yards, 548 rush yards, 31 total TD) had many doubters last season when he threw just 7 TD with 7 INT, but is now one of the top candidates for the Heisman trophy with 24 passing TD and only 5 INT. He is a tremendous athlete, but his improved composure and poise has helped him take the next step as a quarterback.

RB Aaron Green (677 rush yards, 8.3 YPC, 6 TD) is a speedster who is tough to stop once he gets to the second level of the defense. His backfield mate, junior RB B.J. Catalon (493 rush yards, 5.0 YPC, 10 TD) has battled some injuries, but he is the guy that can take over the game late when TCU needs some first downs.

At receiver, junior WRs Josh Doctson (693 rec yards, 7 TD), Kolby Listenbee (606 rec yards, 3 TD) and Deante' Gray (486 rec yards, 7 TD) are all capable of going for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns on any given game.

Other than the 61-58 loss at Baylor, the TCU defense has played very well this season. The unit gives up 23.1 PPG (35th in FBS), and has one of the biggest playmakers in the country on that side of the ball in LB Paul Dawson (105 tackles, 15 TFL, 5 sacks, 3 INT, 2 FF). Dawson can make plays anywhere on the field, in any kind of situation. He has the ability to guard slot receivers when needed, and can cause a lot of havoc in the backfield. In the secondary, S Chris Hackett (6 INT, 66 tackles, 3.5 TFL) can not only cover, but he is not afraid to come up and make plays against the run as well.

It has been a tough season in Austin, but the Longhorns are playing their best football at the end of the season. The offense has been up-and-down, ranking 77th in FBS rushing (154.0 YPG), 80th in passing (212.9 YPG) and 98th in scoring (23.7 PPG).

Sophomore QB Tyrone Swoopes (2,152 pass yards, 12 TD, 6 INT) has steadily improved since being thrown into the starting job, showing the potential that has Longhorns fans' hopes high for the future. He is a threat to make plays with both his arm and legs, and at 6-foot-4, 243 pounds, he can be very difficult for defenses to tackle. The ground game of RBs Malcolm Brown (654 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 TD) and Johnathan Gray (627 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 7 TD) has been inconsistent, but both backs are capable of having big days.

The Horned Frogs are going to focus on stopping those two, so the Texas air attack will have to perform at a high level. WR John Harris (59 catches, 976 yards, 7 TD) is the big-play threat on the roster, using his size and speed to get behind the defense. Senior WR Jaxon Shipley (58 catches, 571 yards, 1 TD) complements him perfectly, going over the middle and making the tough catches. He is being slowed by a leg injury, but he should be good to go on Thursday night.

The defense has been great all year, ranking 24th in the country in points allowed (21.0 PPG). LBs Jordan Hicks (136 tackles, 12 TFL, 2.5 sacks) and Steve Edmond (116 tackles, 12 TFL, 4.5 sacks) are one of the best tackling duos in college football. Both of them do a great job of stopping the run, while also getting pressure on the quarterback. In the secondary, senior CB Quandre Diggs (60 tackles, 5 TFL, 3 INT) is the heart and soul of this defense, always rallying the team when it needs it.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet

November 26, 2014


**Stanford at UCLA**

-- As of Wednesday, most betting shops had UCLA (9-2 straight up, 4-7 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 50. Gamblers can take the Cardinal on the money line for a +180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Jim Mora Jr.'s squad has won five in a row and covered the number in three straight after thumping arch-rival Southern Cal 38-20 as a four-point home favorite last weekend. Brett Hundley threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for another score. Paul Perkins ran for 93 yards and one TD.

-- UCLA has compiled a 2-3 spread record as a home favorite this season. The Bruins are 2-4 ATS at home, as they also lost and failed to cover in a home loss to Oregon. On Mora's watch the last three seasons, UCLA is 8-6 ATS in 14 games as a home favorite.

-- For the season, Hundley has completed 72.0 percent of his throws for 2,873 yards with a 20/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The true junior, who will turn pro after his team's bowl game, has rushed for 566 yards and eight TDs.

-- Stanford (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) owns a 2-1-1 spread record in four games as a road underdog during David Shaw's four-year tenure.

-- Stanford will have to face the Bruins without its best WR Ty Montgomery, who is 'out' due to a shoulder injury. Montgomery has a team-best 61 receptions for 604 yards and three touchdowns. Montgomery has produced 1,220 all-purpose yards, in addition to one rushing score and two TDs on special teams.

-- Stanford cruised to a 38-17 win last weekend at California, hooking up its backers as a 5.5-point road favorite. Remound Wright ran for 92 yards and four TDs to lead the way. The Cardinal defense forced five turnovers by the Bears, who gave up a fumble and threw four interceptions between a pair of QBs.

-- The 2014 version of Stanford hasn't measured up to the previous ones under Shaw or in the last year of Jim Harbaugh, who took this program from the abyss to a 12-1 record in 2010. Since then, the Cardinal has won at least 11 games in three consecutive seasons. One of the reasons for this team's demise has been mediocre QB play from Kevin Hogan, who has a 2/3 TD-INT in the team's five defeats.

-- Since 2009, Stanford has won six in a row over UCLA, going 5-1 ATS in the process. When these Pac-12 rivals met last year, the Cardinal captured a 24-10 win as a 4.5-point home 'chalk.' Tyler Gaffney ran for 171 yards and two TDs, while the Stanford defense intercepted Brett Hundley twice.

-- The 'under' is 8-2 overall for Stanford, 4-1 in its five road assignments.

-- The 'under' is 6-4-1 overall for UCLA, 3-1-1 in its home games.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

**Virginia at Virginia Tech**

-- As of Wednesday, most books had Virginia (5-6 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 40.5. This rivalry game will determine which team's season is done and which squad is headed to the postseason.

-- Va. Tech (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) has the nation's longest bowl streak with 21 consecutive postseason appearances. That string of bowl games and a 10-game stranglehold over the Commonwealth Cup is on the line for the Hokies, who have been decimated by injuries and have lost four of their last five games both SU and ATS.

-- Frank Beamer's team dropped a 6-3 decision at Wake Forest in double overtime last weekend, failing to cover the spread as a 13.5-point road favorite. It was the first FBS game to have a scoreless regulation since 2005. The Hokies hadn't lost to the Demon Deacons since 1984.

-- Va. Tech QB Michael Brewer has struggled all season long and the health of his cast hasn't helped his cause. Three RBs have gone down to season-ending injuries, in addition to a slew of offensive linemen. Brewer has a 15/13 TD-INT ratio this year but to his credit, he's only been intercepted twice in the last five games.

-- Mike London's team snapped a four-game losing streak by smashing Miami 30-13 as a 3.5-point home underdog last week. The defense held explosive Miami RB Duke Johnson to a season-low 88 rushing yards. Khalek Shepherd rushed for 95 yards and one TD to lead the way for the Cavs, who are winless with a 2-2 spread record on the road going into Blacksburg on Friday night.

-- Virginia RB Kevin Parks has rushed for a team-best 675 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. He left the win over UM with a concussion, but UVA is hopeful that he'll be ready to play by Friday night. Gamblers should check his status.

-- Assuming this line hold with UVA as the short 'chalk,' we'll note that the Cavs are 1-2 ATS as road favorites during London's five-year tenure.

-- Va. Tech has lost four of its six home games at Lane Stadium this season, limping to a 1-5 spread record in the process.

-- The 'under' has cashed in six straight UVA games to improve to 8-3 overall and 3-1 in its four road assignments. The Cavs have seen their games average 50.5 combined points per game.

-- The 'under' is 7-3 overall for Va. Tech, 3-2 in its home games. The Hokies have seen their games average a combined score of 43.7 PPG.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 14

November 25, 2014

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OHIO at MIAMI-OHIO
Miami 4-1 vs. line last five and has covered last 3 in series as well.
Miami, based on recent trends.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TCU at TEXAS
Road team has won and covered last two meetings. Frogs 8-2 vs. line TY but only 1-2 last three. Horns have covered last three in 2014.
Slight to TCU, based on team trends.

LSU at TEXAS A&M
Les has won and covered last two vs. A&M. Ags 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY and 6-14 last 20 on board. But LSU 1-6 vs. spread last 7 away from Baton Rouge.
LSU, based on series trends.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

AKRON at KENT STATE (Moved from Tuesday)
Bowden no covers last five and 1-7-1 vs. line last nine TY, though Zips 4-1 vs. line last five in series.
Slight to Kent State, based on recent trends.

VIRGINIA at VIRGINIA TECH
Beamer has not lost SU to UVa since 2003, though has failed to cover last two. But Beamer 16-34-1 vs. line since late 2010.
Slight to Virginia, based on recent trends.

BALL STATE at BOWLING GREEN
Falcs no covers first three MAC games as host TY. Lembo still 3-2 vs. line away, and 16-8 vs. line as visitor since 2011.
Slight to Ball State, based on extended trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WESTERN MICHIGAN
WMU stellar 11-0 vs. line TY! NIU 2-6 vs. spread last eight TY, though covers came in last two on road.
WMU, based on recent trends.

BUFFALO at UMASS
UMass has covered last six and eight of last nine TY.
UMass, based on recent trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at MARSHALL
Herd 9-1-1 vs. spread last 11 at Huntington.
Marshall, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at EASTERN MICHIGAN
Rockets have covered 6 of last 7 in series.
Toledo, based on series trends.

NEBRASKA at IOWA
Hawkeyes have covered last two meetings, but only 8-12 last 20 vs. lien at Iowa City. Bo Pelini 6-1 vs. line last seven away from Lincoln.
Nebraska, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA at TULSA
ECU no covers last five TY but has won and covered last three vs. Tulsa. Golden Hurricane only 7-16 vs. spread since 2013.
ECU, based on series and extended team trends.

HOUSTON at SMU
UH 5-3 vs. spread last 8 TY. Cougs 4-1 SU and vs. line last five meetings.
UH, based on series trends.

NAVY at SOUTH ALABAMA
Jags 0-4 vs. line at Mobile TY and no covers last six. Mids have covered last three in 2014 and 3-1 vs. spread away from Annapolis TY, 8-1 last nine.
Navy, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at MISSOURI
Hogs 9-1 last nine vs. line TY and covered last three away,
Arkansas, based on recent trends.

STANFORD at UCLA
Bruins have not beaten Tree since 2008, 6 SU losses since, 1-5 vs. line. But Shaw 1-5 last six vs. points away from Palo Alto.
UCLA, based on recent Stanford road woes.

ARIzONA STATE at ARIZONA
Historically road-oriented series though ASU won big at home LY. Visitor had covered previous four. ASU 8-2 vs. spread last 10 at Tucson.
ASU, based on series trends.

COLORADO STATE at AIR FORCE
McElwain on 21-7 spread run since mid 2012. Rams 11-2 vs. spread last 13 away from Fort Collins. Force has covered 5 of last 7 TY.
CSU, based on McElwain trends.

UCF at USF
USF 5-18-1 vs. spread last 24 at Tampa. UCF 6-2 vs. points last eight TY.
UCF, based on USF home woes.


SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MICHIGAN at OHIO STATE
OSU 9-1 SU last 10 in series (7-3 vs. line in those games). Wolverines no covers last three at Columbus. Hoke 4-8-1 last 13 as dog.
OSU, based on team and series trends.

SYRACUSE at BOSTON COLLEGE
Cuse 4-2 vs. line last six away from Carrier Dome, but only 4-7 vs. spread TY. BC was 5-1 as home chalk past two seasons, 13-8 vs. points last 20 on board.
BC, based on team trends.

OLD DOMINION at FLORIDA ATLANTIC
ODU 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY. FAU 23-9 last 32 vs. spread.
FAU, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at DUKE
Blue Devils sagging with two Ls in a row as home favorite, though they were 11-1 vs. line previous 12 as Durham chalk. Cutcliffe 2-0-1 vs. line last five vs. Deacs.
Duke, based on extended trends.

TENNESSEE at VANDERBILT
Dores have won and covered last two meetings, unprecedented in recent series history. Vandy once went 22 straight (1983-2004) without beating UT. Vandy just 2-5 vs. line as host TY, Vols have covered 4 of last 6 in 2014.
UT, based on recent trends.

MINNESOTA at WISCONSIN
Paul Bunyan Axe! Slab of Bacon! Badgers 4-1 vs. line last 5 TY but only 2-2 vs. line last four at Camp Randall. Jerry Kill 4-1 as dog TY and 9-3 in role since 2013. Gophers haven't beaten Badgers since 2003.
Slight to Wisconsin, based on series trends.

PITTSBURGH at MIAMI-FLA
Canes 5-1 last 6 as chalk TY. Pitt 3-6 last 9 vs. line but 2-1 as dog in 2014.
Slight to Miami, based on recent trends.

RUTGERS at MARYLAND
Rutgers 3-2 as road dog TY, 10-5 in role since 2011.
Slight to Rutgers, based on team trends.

RICE at LA TECH
Both 8-3 vs. line TY. Owls 22-10 last 32 on board and covered last 2 vs. LT.
Slight to Rice, based on series trends.

NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA
After Duke win, Fedora now 5-1 last six vs. line TY, closing fast as in 2013. NCS 3-1 vs. line as visitor in 2014. Fedora has won and covered last two years vs. Pack.
UNC, based on team trends.

ILLINOIS at NORTHWESTERN
Illini now 2-11 vs. line as visitor since 2012. Pat Fitz, however, only 2-10 vs. points last 12 at Evanston. NU has won SU last two years vs. Illini.
Slight to NU, based on Illinois negatives.

PURDUE at INDIANA
Old Oaken Bucket! Hazell has covered four straight away from Ross-Ade, while IU just 4-7 vs. points in 2014. Purdue has covered last three and five of last six meetings.
Purdue, based on team trends.

IDAHO at APP STATE
Vandals 5-0 vs. line away TY, App 1-3 vs. spread last four at Boone.
Idaho, based on recent trends.

CINCINNATI at TEMPLE
Tuberville has won and covered last five TY after slumping previously. Owls only 2-4 last six vs. spread as spread magic has cooled, and 2-3 last five as dog.
Slight to Cincy, based on recent trends.

TEXAS STATE at GEORGIA STATE
Franchione has now covered five straight. GSU 1-4 vs. line as host TY.
TSU, based on recent Franchione marks.

WEST VIRGINIA at IOWA STATE
Holgorsen 1-4 last five as chalk and just 5-15 in role since 2012. ISU 2-0-1 as road dog TY, 3-0-1 last four in role.
ISU, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at ARKANSAS STATE
Red Wolves 4-1 vs. spread at Jonesboro TY and 4-2 as DD chalk. NMSU no covers last five TY, and 0-4 last four vs. line on road.
ASU, based on team trends.

UAB at SOUTHERN MISS
USM 0-4-1 vs. line at home TY, 2-11-1 last 14 as host. Blazers had covered four straight in series prior to LY.
UAB, based on team and extended series trends.

WYOMING at NEW MEXICO
Davie 4-1 last 5 and 5-2 last 7 vs. line TY. Wyo 2-6 vs. line last eight TY.
UNM, based on recent and series trends.

UTAH STATE at BOISE STATE
USU 5-2 vs. spread on MW road since LY, 6-2 vs. line last 8 TY, 10-5 last 15 as dog.
USU, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE
SJSU no covers last four or 7 of last 9 TY.
Slight to SDSU, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON at WASHINGTON STATE
Apple Cup. Leach has covered past two years in Apple Cup. Huskies have covered 4 of last 5 on Pac-12 road since late LY.
Slight to WSU, based on recent series trends.

BAYLOR vs. TEXAS TECH (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)
TT 2-6 vs. spread last seven Big 12 reg season games away from Lubbock. Kingsbury 4-11-1 last 16 vs. spread in reg. season. Baylor has won and covered big last three meetings vs. Red Raiders.
Baylor, based on team and series trends.

GEORGIA TECH at GEORGIA
Paul Johnson has covered last four and 6 of last 8 TY, also 4-1 vs. spread away this season. Long-standing road trends in this rivalry as visitor 13-2-1 last 16 vs. spread in series. Richt only 2-3 as home chalk TY, 7-11 in role since 2012.
GT, based on recent and extended series trends.

KANSAS at KANSAS STATE
Bill Snyder 5-0 SU and vs. line against Jayhawks since 2009. KSU on 15-6 spread run at home and has covered 7 of last 8 this season. KU 4-2-1 vs. line for Bowen.
KSU, based on Bill Snyder trends.

BYU at CAL
Cougs only 1-7 last 8 vs. line TY, Cal 7-3-1 vs. spread for Dykes in 2014.
Cal, based on recent trends.

OREGON at OREGON STATE
Beavs woeful 2-9 vs. line this season. Ducks 5-0-1 vs. line last six TY. Ducks had covered three straight Civil Wars before close escape LY.
Oregon, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at PENN STATE
Dantonio only 2-2 vs. line away TY but 11-3 vs. spread in role as visitor since 2012. Franklin only 2-5 vs. line last six TY and 1-4 last five Big Ten games vs. number.
MSU, based on team trends.

AUBURN at ALABAMA
Malzahn has really cooled vs. number after that 13-game cover streak, now just 2-6 last eight, but still 6-1 as dog with Auburn (1-1 TY). Tide only 3-9 last 12 vs. line.
Slight to Auburn, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE
Road team has covered last three in series. Jimbo just 3-9 last 12 vs. line. Gators 7-3-1 last 11 as dog and covered last 3 away from Swamp TY.
Florida, based on team and series road trends.

NEVADA at UNLV
Pack had won nine straight vs. Rebs before home loss LY, though UNLV has covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Pack has won last four at Sam Boyd Stadium.
Nevada, based on extended series and team trends.

ULM at GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Eagles 4-1 vs. spread in Statesboro TY. ULM 3-1 vs. line last 4 after 0-5-1 run.
Slight to GSU, based on recent trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON
Spurrier only 4-7 vs. line TY but Dabo no covers last six in 2014. Spurrier 3-0 as dog TY (dog 10-1 in each Gamecock game TY!) and 7-2 in role since 2012. Spurrier has also won and covered five straight vs. Clemson.
SC, based on team and series trends.

HAWAII at FRESNO STATE
Chow finally got road W and cover at San Jose but had dropped all four vs. line on mainland previously TY. FSU 5-2 vs. line in MW play this season.
Slight to Fresno, based on Chow road woes.

UTAH at COLORADO
Buffs have covered last 3 vs. Utes! CU 8-3 vs. line at home since LY. Utah 5-0 vs. line away TY.
CU, based on series trends.

UCONN at MEMPHIS
Diaco 2-8 vs. line TY. Tigers 4-2 laying DD since last season.
Memphis, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at LOUISVILLE
Cats no covers last 3 or 4 of last 5 TY. Ville 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 vs. line last three years vs. UK. Cats no covers last 3 or 5 of last 6 away from Lexington.
'Ville, based on series and team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at OLE MISS
Dan Mullen has covered seven straight away from Starkville. Hugh Freeze no covers last four TY after 34-11 mark prior.
MSU, based on recent trends.

MTSU at UTEP
Miners 5-0 vs. line at Sun Bowl TY. MTSU 1-5 vs. points last six in 2014 and 1-3 last four away TY.
UTEP, based on recent trends.

ULL at TROY
ULL 6-1 SU last 7 and 5-1 vs. line last 6 TY. Also covered 3 of last 4 vs. Troy. Trojans 5-2 vs. line last 7 TY.
ULL, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at UTSA
Coker no covers last 4 or 8 of last 9 TY. UNT 0-5 vs. points away TY.
Slight to UTSA, based on recent UNT road woes.

NOTRE DAME at SOUTHERN CAL
Irish have won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. SC. But fading Irish no covers last four TY and just 10-15 last 25 vs. line.
Slight to ND, based on recent series trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12, SEC heat up Thursday

November 26, 2014


LSU TIGERS (7-4) at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (7-4)
TV/Time: FS1, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: LSU -3.5, Total: 50.5

Two struggling SEC teams desperate for a win will collide on Thanksgiving night when LSU visits Texas A&M.

The Tigers are certainly talented, as they have victories this season against both Wisconsin and Ole Miss, but have also lost SU and ATS to Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. Overall they are 7-4 ATS while covering in each one of their victories and are coming off a bad loss to the Razorbacks by a score of 17-0 as 2-point underdogs on the road on Nov. 15. It was Arkansas’ first win against the Tigers in 18 tries as LSU managed a putrid 123 yards of offense and 2.3 yards per play.

The Aggies have had a similar season with huge wins over South Carolina and Auburn, but ran into a juggernaut in the middle part of their schedule as they were defeated by Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama by a combined 91 points over three consecutive games. They most recently absorbed a loss to Missouri on Nov. 15 by a score of 34-27 as 3.5-point favorites at home, bringing their ATS record this season to just 4-7, while they have covered only once in their past seven attempts.

The Aggies defense just could not hold the Tigers offense in check as they totaled 587 yards, which included 335 yards on the ground (6.8 YPC). LSU has won this matchup (SU and ATS) in each of the past three seasons while having an average margin of victory of 15.3 PPG.

Last year the Tigers dominated in a 34-10 game as 3-point favorites at home behind 517 yards of offense and two forced turnovers. Bettors should also know that LSU is an impressive 17-4 ATS (81%) in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in its previous contest since 1992 while Texas A&M is 33-18 ATS (65%) in home games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the same timeframe.

On the injury front, HB Kenny Hilliard (undisclosed) is out for the remainder of the season for LSU, while the Aggies come into this one without any significant omissions from their lineup.

The Tigers have had a solid year rushing the ball (204.5 YPG) as they rank 35th in the nation while gaining a meager 169.1 YPG through the air (112th in FBS) and just 28.0 PPG of offense (74th in nation).

QB Anthony Jennings (1,353 pass yards, 9 TD, 6 INT) has really struggled in the past two games, combining to go 20-for-48 (42%) for 163 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He is not leaned on much for this team as he has eclipsed 200 passing yards just once on the year.

HB Leonard Fournette (745 rush yards, 7 TD) has been a bright spot for this team as a freshman, as he has hit triple digits in rushing yards three times this season. HB Terrance Magee (471 rush yards, 3 TD) has also done well while averaging 5.4 YPC and is now the primary backup with Hilliard out for the year. WR Travis Dural (747 rec yards, 7 TD) has posted an excellent 21.3 yards per catch, but does not get the volume as he has caught a mere 14 balls over the past six games combined. Meanwhile, WR Malachi Dupre (277 rec yards, 5 TD) has also been a big red-zone threat while getting tons of yards per catch (21.3 avg).

The defense is what keeps this team winning, as it has allowed 16.4 PPG (5th in FBS) this year behind the strong play of LB Kwon Alexander (72 tackles, 7 TFL) and DL Danielle Hunter (63 tackles, 12 TFL).

Texas A&M has focused on the passing game and excelled with 321.2 YPG through the air (10th in nation) while adding 148.2 rushing YPG (88th in FBS), all resulting in them scoring the 23rd-most points in FBS (36.0 PPG).

The downfall of QB Kenny Hill (2,649 pass yards, 23 TD, 8 INT) has given way to freshman QB Kyle Allen (884 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) who has thrown seven touchdowns and two interceptions over the past two games while hitting on better than 65% of his passes each time. He has seen his attempts increase in each of the past three contests, and was rated the No. 1 pocket passer among college QB prospects coming into the year.

HBs Tra Carson (431 rush yards, 5 TD) and Trey Williams (412 rush yards, 5 TD) have combined to average 5.4 YPC while neither player has really had a breakout performance this season. WRs Josh Reynolds (746 rec yards, 12 TD), Malcome Kennedy (526 rec yards, 4 TD), Speedy Noil (513 rec yards, 4 TD) and Ricky Seals-Jones (443 rec yards, 4 TD) all have 40+ receptions on the year while Reynolds is coming off his best game of the season in which he caught five passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns.

The Aggies have not done well on the defensive side of things while giving up 27.7 PPG on the year (75th in nation) and have surrendered an average of 36.0 PPG and 584.5 total YPG over their past two contests. DL Myles Garrett (11 sacks, 46 tackles) and DB Deshazor Everett (65 tackles, 1 INT) will need to perform at their highest levels to have a chance come Thursday.

TCU HORNED FROGS (9-1) at TEXAS LONGHORNS (6-5)

TV/Time: ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: TCU -6.5, Total: 56.5

No. 5 TCU looks to get closer to a playoff berth as they travel to Austin to take on Texas on Thanksgiving night.

The Horned Frogs were off last week, which followed a major struggle in a narrow 34-30 win at 28-point underdog Kansas. However, TCU was still able to win its fifth straight game (3-2 ATS) where it has averaged 46.0 PPG. The Longhorns have had some ups and downs in head coach Charlie Strong’s first season, but the team is playing its best football right now.

Texas has won its past three games (SU and ATS) by a combined score of 95 to 36, which included a 33-16 win against then-No. 23 West Virginia. But that was the only ranked team the Longhorns have beaten, as they are 1-4 SU versus top-25 schools, with two of those defeats coming at home.

Last year, these two teams played in Fort Worth, with the 3-point underdog Longhorns winning, 30-7. Texas dominated the game, outgaining the Horned Frogs 415 to 246, including 187 to 45 on the ground. But in the first Big 12 meeting between these schools in Austin in 2012, TCU prevailed 20-13 by outrushing the Longhorns 217 to 86. Both schools have powerful betting trends against them, as excellent offensive road favorites (34+ PPG) facing an average defense (21 to 28 PPG allowed) after a win by six points or less are just 9-31 ATS (23%) in the past 10 seasons, but underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two straight conference wins facing an opponent coming off a road win are just 25-63 ATS (28%) in the past 10 seasons.

There are a couple of key offensive injuries in this game with TCU RB B.J. Catalon (shoulder) considered questionable to play, while Texas WR Jaxon Shipley (leg) has been upgraded to probable.

The Horned Frogs have been great on both sides of the ball this year, but it is the improvement of the offense that has this team within striking distance of the first college football playoffs. The offense ranks 2nd in FBS scoring (45.9 PPG), 8th in passing (323.6 YPG) and 28th in rushing (218 YPG).

Junior QB Trevone Boykin (3,021 pass yards, 548 rush yards, 31 total TD) had many doubters last season when he threw just 7 TD with 7 INT, but is now one of the top candidates for the Heisman trophy with 24 passing TD and only 5 INT. He is a tremendous athlete, but his improved composure and poise has helped him take the next step as a quarterback.

RB Aaron Green (677 rush yards, 8.3 YPC, 6 TD) is a speedster who is tough to stop once he gets to the second level of the defense. His backfield mate, junior RB B.J. Catalon (493 rush yards, 5.0 YPC, 10 TD) has battled some injuries, but he is the guy that can take over the game late when TCU needs some first downs.

At receiver, junior WRs Josh Doctson (693 rec yards, 7 TD), Kolby Listenbee (606 rec yards, 3 TD) and Deante' Gray (486 rec yards, 7 TD) are all capable of going for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns on any given game.

Other than the 61-58 loss at Baylor, the TCU defense has played very well this season. The unit gives up 23.1 PPG (35th in FBS), and has one of the biggest playmakers in the country on that side of the ball in LB Paul Dawson (105 tackles, 15 TFL, 5 sacks, 3 INT, 2 FF). Dawson can make plays anywhere on the field, in any kind of situation. He has the ability to guard slot receivers when needed, and can cause a lot of havoc in the backfield. In the secondary, S Chris Hackett (6 INT, 66 tackles, 3.5 TFL) can not only cover, but he is not afraid to come up and make plays against the run as well.

It has been a tough season in Austin, but the Longhorns are playing their best football at the end of the season. The offense has been up-and-down, ranking 77th in FBS rushing (154.0 YPG), 80th in passing (212.9 YPG) and 98th in scoring (23.7 PPG).

Sophomore QB Tyrone Swoopes (2,152 pass yards, 12 TD, 6 INT) has steadily improved since being thrown into the starting job, showing the potential that has Longhorns fans' hopes high for the future. He is a threat to make plays with both his arm and legs, and at 6-foot-4, 243 pounds, he can be very difficult for defenses to tackle. The ground game of RBs Malcolm Brown (654 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 TD) and Johnathan Gray (627 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 7 TD) has been inconsistent, but both backs are capable of having big days.

The Horned Frogs are going to focus on stopping those two, so the Texas air attack will have to perform at a high level. WR John Harris (59 catches, 976 yards, 7 TD) is the big-play threat on the roster, using his size and speed to get behind the defense. Senior WR Jaxon Shipley (58 catches, 571 yards, 1 TD) complements him perfectly, going over the middle and making the tough catches. He is being slowed by a leg injury, but he should be good to go on Thursday night.

The defense has been great all year, ranking 24th in the country in points allowed (21.0 PPG). LBs Jordan Hicks (136 tackles, 12 TFL, 2.5 sacks) and Steve Edmond (116 tackles, 12 TFL, 4.5 sacks) are one of the best tackling duos in college football. Both of them do a great job of stopping the run, while also getting pressure on the quarterback. In the secondary, senior CB Quandre Diggs (60 tackles, 5 TFL, 3 INT) is the heart and soul of this defense, always rallying the team when it needs it.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Tip Sheet

November 24, 2014


While the NFL has claimed Thanksgiving as its holiday, college football is bringing two intriguing matchups to the table Thursday night as both Texas and Texas A&M continue their Thanksgiving tradition, just not against each other. Here is a look at the Thursday night games in the Big XII and SEC.

Matchup: TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns
Venue: Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET FOX 1
Line: TCU -6, Over/Under 56½
Last Meeting: 2013, Texas (+2½) 30-7 at TCU

TCU appears to be sinking in the national playoff picture as the Horned Frogs may never recover from the narrow 34-30 win over lowly Kansas. With Iowa State up next this is the last opportunity TCU has to impress the committee, getting this national spotlight game Thanksgiving night. Baylor seems poised to pass TCU as the head-to-head meeting may grow in importance and next week the Bears will get to play a highly regarded Kansas State team. The Big XII may get left out entirely with some momentum behind Ohio State’s inclusion and if Mississippi State and Alabama both win convincingly this week it may not matter as the SEC will likely get two teams in.

TCU’s season may ultimately be remembered for what could have been if not for 11 minutes of trouble in Waco in October. TCU led the game at Baylor 58-37 with less than 12 minutes on the clock after Marcus Mallet scored on an interception return touchdown but the Frogs could not get a single stop on defense and the offense failed in several key third down plays, missing the chance to take time off the clock. Ultimately Baylor scored 24 straight points to close the game and that is the difference between TCU being a lock for the national playoff compared with current less promising position.

For Texas a season that started somewhat disastrously has turned to a season of quiet promise with three straight November wins for the Longhorns. After the somewhat contentious removal of Mack Brown as the head coach last season, Charlie Strong’s tenure in Austin featured an embarrassing 41-7 loss at home against BYU in the second game. Texas started the season 2-4 but now at 6-5 the Longhorns have a chance to put a stamp on an encouraging first page in the new era this week.

The turnaround has started with defense as Texas has played very tough defense in seven of the last eight games. Against some very good offensive teams Texas has held up pretty well and the challenge will be servere this week with a TCU squad that is scoring 46 points per game while averaging 542 yards per game. Trevone Boykin may not make it to New York but he is certainly on a short list of the top players in the nation this season with over 3,000 passing yards and over 500 rushing yards, accounting for 31 touchdowns.

Texas is not getting that type of production from the quarterback position as it has been a big adjustment with sophomore Tyrone Swoopes taking over for David Ash. Swoopes has delivered a handful of productive games but he is completing just 58 percent of his passes and he is not the same dynamic two-way threat. John Harris has been one of the top receivers in the Big XII with 59 catches and he should eclipse 1,000 receiving yards this week but the offense for the Longhorns has not been consistent and Texas really only has one quality win, beating West Virginia at home.

TCU is just 6-12-1 ATS vs. Texas since 1980 including just 8-3 ATS since 1988. TCU beat Texas in Austin in 2012 but the Frogs have just two S/U wins in 19 meetings since 1980. TCU is 34-42-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 1981 including going 1-7 ATS in the last eight instances going back to November of 2011. The win for Texas over West Virginia was the first for the Longhorns as a home underdog S/U or ATS since 1999 as Texas had failed in five straight home underdog situations prior to that game. This is just the seventh time Texas has been a home underdog since 2000 and Texas is also on a 16-5 ATS run in the final home game of the season going back to 1993.

Matchup: LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies
Venue: Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: LSU -3 Over/Under 49½
Last Meeting: 2013, at LSU (-5) 34-10

For two programs accustomed to being in the national conversation in recent years this Thanksgiving showdown will leave the loser potentially in a tie for last place in the SEC West if Arkansas beats Missouri. Both teams have matching 7-4 records but with 3-4 records in conference play. Neither team will be in the discussion for a major bowl spot and by the very high standards of both programs, it will be considered a bit of a down season regardless of this week’s result.

There have been major highs and lows for both teams with Texas A&M peaking early with a 5-0 start and the blowout win at South Carolina in the opening week before crashing with three straight lopsided losses including a 59-0 self-destruction in Tuscaloosa. The Aggies did rebound with a big win at Auburn to save some face in what has been a tough second half of the season.

LSU snuck by Wisconsin in the opening week and then started 0-2 in SEC play with a home loss against Mississippi State and an ugly 41-7 loss at Auburn. The young Tigers team did respond with three straight wins in October including giving Mississippi their first loss however. LSU seemed to have Alabama beat before a painful sequence led to an overtime loss and in its last game LSU was shut out against an Arkansas team that had lost 17 straight conference games.

Texas A&M started the season under sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill who posted huge early season numbers and emerged on the Heisman short list. Hill is no longer the starter as he struggled with the decline of the Aggies and was suspended for two weeks with highly touted freshman Kyle Allen taking the job. Allen has had mixed results and an Aggies offense that is not running the ball like it used to has seen a big scoring drop from the past two seasons. The defense for Texas A&M has also struggled in several matchups and the overall figures for the Aggies look much worse if you take away an incredibly weak non-conference slate.

Last season’s LSU offense posted 453 yards per game and nearly 36 points per game but glancing at the Sunday NFL scores and seeing rookies Alfred Blue, Jeremy Hill, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Zach Mettenberger all in prominent roles shows you how much this team had to rebuild. LSU has been much better on defense than last season with just 16 points per game allowed but the offense is getting very little done consistently in the passing game. Over the past three games LSU has scored a total of just 19 points but the 17-0 loss to Arkansas could be chalked up to a letdown after the demoralizing Alabama game. The team should be ready for this finale Thursday night after a bye week last week.

In the last trip to College Station LSU escaped with a 24-19 win but it was the worst game of the season for Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel as Texas A&M had five turnovers to surrender an early lead. Last season in Baton Rouge LSU crushed Texas A&M 34-10 with nearly double the yardage total as the Aggies were held under 300 yards for their lowest output of the season.

LSU has won and covered in the three recent meetings between these teams going back to the Cotton Bowl after the 2010 season and the Tigers are 8-4-1 ATS vs. Texas A&M since 1986. LSU is 44-28-2 ATS as a road favorite since 1984 including going 17-11-1 ATS since 2005 when Les Miles took over. LSU is 28-15 S/U on the road under Miles, though just 21-20-2 ATS and just 3-7-1 ATS the past three seasons. Texas A&M is 21-12-1 ATS as a home underdog since 1985 including going 5-2 ATS since 2009 in that role though the team is just 0-3 S/U and 1-2 ATS as a home underdog under Kevin Sumlin.