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**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 03:29 AM

Bad Company - Week 11

November 4, 2014

There are plenty of huge matchups inside college football this week (Alabama at LSU, Baylor at Oklahoma, Kansas State at TCU). But there are also a number of contests between teams that are out of contention, which set up for decent wagering opportunities. We’ll take a look at these squads in Week 11 of the college football season, starting with a pair of bottom-feeders in the AAC.

SMU (+12) at Tulsa – 12:00 PM EST

These two teams have combined for just one win, while Tulsa’s only victory this season came back in August against Tulane in two overtimes. How bad has SMU’s offense been this season? The Mustangs have busted double-digits just twice in seven games, while scoring six points or less in the other five contests. In the lone game that SMU covered, the Mustangs were getting 40 ½ points in a 45-24 loss at East Carolina, while SMU has given up at least 41 points in each defeat.

Tulsa is favored for the fourth time this season, but has lost each of its past three home contests against USF, Texas State, and Oklahoma. The Golden Hurricane hasn’t been horrible offensively, but has yielded at least 31 points in all eight games. Tulsa has put together a 1-5 ATS record in its past six games in the role of a home favorite, while posting a 6-14 ATS mark overall since the start of 2013.

Syracuse (+3 ½) vs. Duke – 12:30 PM EST

The Orange last won a game at the Carrier Dome in late August against FCS squad Villanova – in overtime. Syracuse has dropped four consecutive home games, capped off by a 24-17 loss to North Carolina State as 3 ½-point favorites, ending the Wolfpack’s 12-game ACC losing streak. The Orange has played better defensively after a slow start, allowing 47 points in the past three games, but faces a Duke team that averaging 212 yards a game on the ground.

Duke has lost just once this season, as the Blue Devils are closing a stretch of four road games in six weeks. The Blue Devils outlasted Pittsburgh in overtime, 51-48, in spite of allowing nearly 600 yards to the Panthers last week. Amazingly, Duke has been outgained by at least 100 yards in all four ACC games this season, while facing Syracuse for the first time in school history.

Tulane (+17 ½) at Houston – 3:30 PM EST

The Cougars are getting back on track following a 17-12 home loss to UCF last month, as Houston is riding a three-game winning streak. After Houston knocked off Memphis as a road underdog, the Cougars crushed Temple and USF, outscoring those two squads by a combined 48-13. The Cougars will be significant favorites in the next three games, as this team faces Tulsa and SMU in the following two weeks prior to a huge conference showdown at Cincinnati to close the regular season.

Tulane embarrassed themselves in front of a nationally televised audience in a 38-14 setback to Cincinnati as a four-point home underdogs last Friday. The Green Wave has dropped three of four conference games, with the lone win coming in a 12-3 defensive struggle over UConn. Tulane has dropped 10 straight meetings with Houston, as each of the last nine matchups have been decided by 19 points or more.

Georgia State (+7) at Troy – 3:30 PM EST

The only good news regarding this matchup is someone has to win. These two teams have combined for a 2-16 record, as Georgia State’s only win came in the opener against FCS foe Abilene Christian, 38-37. The Panthers covered seven of nine games last season, but Georgia State is just 4-5 ATS this season, while this team has given up 1,082 yards rushing in the past two weeks to Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

Troy hasn’t been much better, scoring just 37 points in the past three losses since beating New Mexico State, 41-24. The Trojans have yielded 1,158 yards on the ground during this three-game losing streak, but Troy did face two stellar attacks in Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, who ran all over Georgia State. When Troy and Georgia State hooked up last season, the Trojans gained 634 yards, but won a close game, 35-28 as 15-point road favorites.

Washington State (+8) at Oregon State – 4:00 PM EST

Two struggling squads inside the loaded Pac-12 look to end losing streaks this Saturday in Corvallis. The Cougars are without the nation’s leading passer as Connor Halliday broke his leg in last Saturday’s 44-17 loss to USC. Washington State will try to snap a four-game skid as it turns to redshirt freshman Lucas Falk, who threw for 346 yards in the defeat to the Trojans. Wazoo has been limited to 17 points or less in two of the past three games, while posting a 1-4 ATS record in Pac-12 play by somehow upsetting Utah on the road as 13-point underdogs.

The Beavers have dropped four of five games inside the conference, with the only win coming against cellar-dweller Colorado. Oregon State rallied from a 17-point deficit in last week’s game against California, but the Golden Bears outscored the Beavers, 18-0 to close the game in a 45-31 win by Cal on the road. The Beavers are 3-0 in the past three meetings with the Cougars, including a 52-24 rout in Pullman last season as 2 ½-point favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 03:32 AM

ACC Report - Week 11

November 4, 2014

The ACC once again has a Thursday night battle, and this one will be hard to figure. Clemson 'should' be able to easily handle Wake Forest, but the Tigers are 0-3 ATS in their past three and more than a three-touchdown favorite. That will be an interesting game to watch. Georgia Tech looks to win on the road in a place they have fared well against the number, while hoping trends mean nothing and Duke stubs its toe on the road in the Carrier Dome. Florida State will also be in action looking to keep its playoff hopes alive, avoiding a costly mistake at home.

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 6-3 3-2 6-3 3-5-1

Clemson 6-2 5-1 4-4 3-5

Duke 7-1 3-1 5-2-1 2-5

Florida State 8-0 5-0 2-6 4-4

Georgia Tech 7-2 4-2 5-4 5-4

Louisville 6-3 4-3 5-4 2-6-1

Miami (Fla.) 6-3 3-2 5-4 3-6

North Carolina 4-5 2-3 3-6 4-4

North Carolina State 5-4 1-4 5-4 3-5-1

Pittsburgh 4-5 2-3 3-5-1 4-4-1

Syracuse 3-6 1-4 4-5 2-6-1

Virginia 4-5 2-3 5-3-1 3-6

Virginia Tech 4-5 1-4 3-6 3-5

Wake Forest 2-6 0-5 4-4 1-7

Clemson at Wake Forest (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:30p.m. ET)

This Thursday night battle might be shaping up as a low-scoring defensive tussle. The under has cashed in four straight games for Clemson, and it is 10-1 in the past 11 games on field turf. In addition, the under is 4-1 in their past five games following a bye, and the under is 9-3 in their past 12 appearances on Thursday Night Football. For Wake, the under is 5-0 in the past five home games, and 4-1 in their past five agaisnt a winning team. The under is also 23-8 in their past 31 ACC tilts, and 36-17 in their past 53 overall. In this series, the past four have gone under in Winston-Salem, and the under is 5-1 in the past six meetings overall. Clemson is 0-3 ATS in the past three overall, but Wake is just 1-5 ATS in its past six at home against a team with a winning road record.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina State (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)

The Yellow Jackets head into this one looking to maintain its dominance in the series. Georgia Tech is 5-0-1 ATS in the past six trips to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, and the Ramblin' Wreck is 8-3-2 ATS in the past 13 meetings overall against the Wolfpack. In addition, the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings. You can still get Georgia Tech favored by less than six, as of mid-week. N.C. State won its first ACC game since the 2012 season last week at Syracuse. The good news for the Pack is that the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings in this series, but that's the only trend pointing at them. N.C. State has covered just two of its past nine at home, and they're 1-5 ATS in the past six games in November. However, if you're a Pack side bettor, they are an impressive 17-5-1 ATS in the past 23 home games against a team with a winning road record, and Georgia Tech is just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 against a team with a winning overall mark.

Duke at Syracuse (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

Duke heads to Syracuse looking to run its record to 8-1 and keep their hopes alive for back-to-back trips to the ACC Championship Game. The Blue Devils won a great game in double-overtime at Pittsburgh last week, 51-48, improving to 10-2 ATS in the past 12 conference games. Duke is also 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine road games against a team with a losing home record, and they are 7-0 ATS in their past seven on field turf. Overall, Duke is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22. For whatever reason, Duke continues to get no respect from Vegas, as they are favored by just three or four points depending on the shop. Duke is also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 road games, while Syracuse is just 1-5 ATS in its past six home games. If you were thinking Orange, it might be better to go under instead. The under is 6-1-1 for Syracuse in the past eight, and 4-1 in their past five ACC games while going 3-1-1 in the past five at home. The under is 6-1 in Duke's past seven ACC games, 8-3 in their past 11 and 7-2 in their past nine road games.

Virginia at Florida State (ESPN, 6:30 p.m.)

The under has been the dominant trend in this series lately, cashing in four straight meetings in Tallahassee, and each of the past nine meetings overall. For UVA, the under is 6-0 in its past six conference games, and 4-0 in their past four overall. The under is 5-0 in Florida State's past five at home, and 7-1 in their past eight on grass. However, the over has hit in 10 of their past 14 ACC games. Virginia fired out of the chute this season and looked to be a friend to bettors covering five times in the first five games. However, they are just 0-3-1 ATS in the past four, including losses in three straight both straight-up and ATS. FSU has made it interesting against good opponents, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, much to their chagrin of their detractors. After starting 0-4 ATS in the first four, and 1-6 ATS in the first seven, they did cover in impressive fashion at Louisville last Thursday. One thing to watch, QB Jameis Winston has an ankle injury, but early word is that it should not bother him or alter his status for Saturday.

Louisville at Boston College (ESPN2, 7:15 p.m.)

Louisville hits the road for Chestnut Hill in a primetime game. The Cardinals are 22-8 ATS in their past 30 road games, and 16-6 ATS in their past 22 conference games dating back to their days in the Big East and AAC. In addition, Louisville is a whopping 17-4 ATS in their past 21 road games against a team with a winning home record. Boston College is 11-4 ATS in their past 15 home games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 against a team with a winning record. They're also 9-4 ATS in the past 13 conference games. The under is 4-0 in Louisville's past four on the road, 6-1-1 in the past eight conference games and 18-7-1 in their past 26 overall. The under is 4-1 in BC's past five, 3-1-1 in their past five ACC games and 19-7-2 in their past 28 against a team with a winning overall mark.

BYE WEEKS
Miami (Fla.), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech

**jcindaville** · 11-05-2014, 12:39 PM

Thanks Stardust

Glad to see ya back

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:36 PM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- NFL teams train in obscure places: the Clippers are training in Las Vegas. Oy.

-- Texas Longhorns are a 16-point home dog this week, first time in at least 38 years they've been a double digit home underdog.

-- Former Dolphin coach Tony Sparano is interim coach of the Oakland Raiders.

-- Oregon Ducks played four games before classes started in Eugene; how big an advantage was that for the Ducks, if at all?

-- Former pro wrestler/turned actor Dwayne Johnson was once on practice squad of the Calgary Stampeders of the CFL.

-- Braves' hitting coach Greg Walker "resigned", a scapegoat for the front office stupidly signing the Upton brothers to big money contracts.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Our bottom 5, top 8 in NFL......

32) Raiders (0-4)-- When you fire your coach (by telephone) four games into the season when you’re starting a rookie QB, you’re the worst team in the league. Good news; they won’t lose this week, its their bye week.

31) Jaguars (0-4)—Saw reason for optimism with rookie QB Bortles in his first start, but the defense needs work; Chargers easily could’ve scored 50 points against them Sunday- they kicked FG on all four red zone drives. .

30) Titans (1-3)—Three lopsided losses since opening win, Locker is hurt already. Look for LSU rookie Mettenberger to emerge as their #1 QB.

29) Jets (1-3)—Vikings are only NFC North team that hasn’t beaten them and that is only because they haven’t played yet. If Geno Smith doesn’t stop turning ball over, he’s going to be playing for a new coach and GM next season.

28) Rams (1-2)—Blew 21-point lead at home to Dallas is Week 3; am encouraged by new QB Austin Davis, but at some point, this group needs to learn how to win.

8) Ravens (3-1)—Pitta’s injury is big blow to offense that likes tight ends to catch the ball. Imagine the media’s outrage if Ray Rice somehow gets reinstated? The Internet might implode.

7) Cowboys (3-1)—Jones Family could be unusual; son Steven might be wiser than his old man, who wanted to draft Johnny Manziel. In most of these rich families that own franchises, the kids turn out to be nitwits. Steven Jones is the Dallas voice of reason and they’ve improved.

6) Eagles (3-1)—Have been behind by 10+ points in all three wins; reason for concern that Foles might not finish season behind shaky OL.

5) Broncos (2-1)—The rich get richer: Peyton Manning goes to Denver, buys a few Papa John’s pizza places, marijuana gets legalized in Colorado, and #18 gets even wealthier. I’d say luck favors the prepared, but then you’d think I was talking about the Colts.

4) Seahawks (2-1)—Dicey Monday nighter in nation’s capitol, against Redskin team that turned ball over six times vs Giants last Thursday. Washington is 6-3 in last nine series games; all three losses came in playoffs.

3) Chargers (3-1)—Will be pass-oriented until they get Mathews healthy. Already on their third center this season.

2) Cardinals (3-0)—7-point underdog in Denver this week, despite their unbeaten record. Bruce Arians almost never got a chance to be an NFL head coach; in his 60’s now, he’s proving to be a very good one.

1) Bengals (3-0)—Will get stern test from New England Sunday night in Foxboro, after Patriots’ debacle in Arrowhead. Not ready to bury Pats yet; Cincy will get their best shot this week.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:38 PM

Wednesday, Nov. 5

Buffalo at Ohio, 8:00 ET
Buffalo: 26-13 OVER (+11.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents
Ohio: 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents

Northern Illinois at Ball State, 8:00 ET
N Illinois: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Ball State: 45-37 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

Thursday, Nov. 6

Clemson at Wake Forest, 7:30 ET
Clemson: 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games
Wake Forest: 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) as an underdog
College Football Betting Trends - Friday, Nov. 7

Memphis at Temple, 7:30 ET
Memphis: 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival
Temple: 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Utah State at Wyoming, 8:00 ET
Utah St: 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents
Wyoming: 41-24 UNDER (+14.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

Saturday, Nov. 8

Penn State at Indiana, 12:00 ET
Penn State: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a game at home
Indiana: 6-0 OVER as a home underdog

Georgia at Kentucky, 12:00 ET
Georgia: 7-1 OVER as a favorite
Kentucky: 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog

Louisiana Tech at UAB, 12:00 ET
Louisiana Tech: 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival
UAB: 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a home underdog

Iowa at Minnesota, 12:00 ET
Iowa: 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a win by 35 or more points
Minnesota: 5-1 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Michigan at Northwestern, 3:30 ET
Michigan: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Northwestern: 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after playing a conference game

Georgia Tech at North Carolina State, 12:30 ET
Georgia Tech: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a home win against a conference rival
N Carolina St: 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders

Wisconsin at Purdue, 12:00 ET
Wisconsin: 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Purdue: 8-2 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders

UL - Monroe at Appalachian State, 3:30 ET
UL - Monroe: 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses
Appalachian St: 0-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Duke at Syracuse, 12:30 ET
Duke: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after playing a conference game
Syracuse: 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after playing a conference game

Florida at Vanderbilt, 7:30 ET
Florida: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Vanderbilt: 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13

Louisville at Boston College, 7:15 ET
Louisville: 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Boston College: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game

Iowa State at Kansas, 3:30 ET
Iowa St: 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games after allowing 37 points or more last game
Kansas: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a loss by 35 or more points

South Alabama at Arkansas State, 3:00 ET
S Alabama: 3-10 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
Arkansas St: 14-4 ATS after playing a conference game

Tulane at Houston, 3:30 ET
Tulane: 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Houston: 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game

Georgia State at Troy, 3:00 ET
Georgia St: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game
Troy: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game

Tex San Antonio at Rice, 12:00 ET
Tex San Antonio: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Rice: 52-25 ATS (+24.5 Units) in home games after playing a conference game

Florida International at Old Dominion, 3:30 ET
Florida INT: 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses
Old Dominion: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game

West Virginia at Texas, 3:30 ET
W Virginia: 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13
Texas: 1-5 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival

UCLA at Washington, 7:00 ET
UCLA: 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games
Washington: 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) after playing a conference game

SMU at Tulsa, 12:00 ET
SMU: 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half
Tulsa: 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored

Connecticut at Army, 3:30 ET
Connecticut: 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games
Army: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Texas AM at Auburn, 3:30 ET
Texas AM: 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Auburn: 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents

Alabama at LSU, 8:00 ET
Alabama: 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite
LSU: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins

Baylor at Oklahoma, 12:00 ET
Baylor: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game
Oklahoma: 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game

Virginia at Florida State, 6:30 ET
Virginia: 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game
Florida St: 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a home favorite of 17.5 to 21 points

UTEP at Western Kentucky, 4:00 ET
UTEP: 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers
W Kentucky: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents

Washington State at Oregon State, 4:00 ET
Washington St: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
Oregon St: 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) against conference opponents

Air Force at UNLV, 4:00 ET
Air Force: 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game
UNLV: 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders

Idaho at San Diego State, 6:30 ET
Idaho: 37-62 ATS (-31.2 Units) after playing a conference game
San Diego St: 7-0 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders

Marshall at Southern Miss, 7:00 ET
Marshall: 11-3 OVER after playing 2 straight conference games
S Miss: 2-11 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Florida Atlantic at North Texas, 7:00 ET
Florida ATL: 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
N Texas: 8-2 UNDER after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Georgia Southern at Texas State, 4:00 ET
Georgia S: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games
Texas St: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Colorado at Arizona, 8:00 ET
Colorado: 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs
Arizona: 5-1 OVER off a road loss against a conference rival

Boise State at New Mexico, 7:00 ET
Boise St: 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) against conference opponents
New Mexico: 11-8 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers

Hawaii at Colorado State, 7:00 ET
Hawaii: 13-4 OVER off a loss against a conference rival
Colorado St: 5-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Ohio State at Michigan State, 8:00 ET
Ohio St: 105-73 ATS (+24.7 Units) against conference opponents
Michigan St: 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game

UL - Lafayette at New Mexico State, 8:00 ET
UL - Lafayette: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday
New Mexico St: 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) after playing a conference game

Notre Dame at Arizona State, 3:30 ET
Notre Dame: 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Arizona St: 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games

Oregon at Utah, 10:00 ET
Oregon: 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored
Utah: 57-32 ATS (+21.8 Units) as an underdog

Kansas State at TCU, 7:30 ET
Kansas State: 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less
TCU: 5-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

San Jose State at Fresno State, 10:30 ET
San Jose St: 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a road favorite
Fresno St: 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:38 PM

The best bets in college football you didn't know about

If you’re looking for college football’s biggest breadwinners, don’t waste your time betting on power conference programs. While a few top-tier teams have held their own against the spread, these small schools have consistently cashed in – and you didn’t even notice.

Georgia Southern Eagles: 7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS

The Eagles have been a 17-point or greater favorite in their last five games despite this being their first year in the FBS. They’ve covered in all of those contests except a road stop at New Mexico State.

Georgia Southern currently leads the nation in rushing yards, average yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. The Eagles are also 17th in turnover margin. An option team that doesn't turn the ball over (they've lost only nine on the year) is dangerous.

Southern has also benefited from playing a weak schedule. The last five teams it’s faced have a combined record of 8-35 SU this season. Bettor should be wary of GSU when the schedule amps up the last three weeks of the season, with two of those games (at Texas State, at Navy) on the road.

Western Michigan Broncos: 6-3 SU, 8-1 ATS

The Broncos were just 1-11 SU in 2013 so they’ve received some favorable spreads at the beginning of the year. But they've also won some impressive games outright (at Ball State and at Bowling Green).

A positive note is that WMU is getting better as the season goes on and has covered the spread by double-digits in each of the last three weeks (Broncos averaging plus-10.5 vs. the spread this season).

The Broncos are also doing it on both sides of the football, as they have the third-ranked offense and the third-ranked defense in the MAC. The next two games are against Central Michigan (5-5 ATS) and Eastern Michigan (4-5 ATS) – two in state rivalries for Western Michigan.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS

Like Western Michigan, the Bulldogs had a bad 2013 which resulted in them receiving some favorable spreads to start the season. With that, they still had to back into a cover in the opener against Oklahoma. Their last two wins have been solid, crushing Western Kentucky and winning at Southern Mississippi (the Golden Eagles scored late to make this look closer than it was).

What should scare you about the Bulldogs is their inconsistency. On the year, Louisiana Tech has three losses: Oklahoma, Auburn and Northwestern State. One of these things is not like the others. A team that loses to an FCS school is probably not the wisest place to invest your money but keep an eye on the line for the Old Dominion game in two weeks (ODU is 2-7 ATS).

UMass Minutemen: 2-7 SU, 7-2 ATS

The Minutemen are a team that is performing way above their previous versions and have won two of their last three games outright. They do have a backdoor cover against Bowling Green and they've blown some late leads (Miami (Ohio) and Vanderbilt) but they’re getting better.

Massachusetts has covered in five straight games, set as an underdog in all but one of those outings. In fact, UMass was a 15-point favorite versus Eastern Michigan two weeks ago – the first time it’s been favored since Week 9 of last season (-4 vs. Western Michigan).

The Minutemen have Ball State (4-4 ATS), Akron (2-6 ATS) and Buffalo (3-5 ATS) left on their schedule and enjoy a bye in Week 11 before playing two of their next three at home, where they’re 3-1 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:39 PM

NCAAF

Wednesday, November 5

After hot start, NIU has become awful ATS play

After starting the season 3-0 straight-up and against the spread, the Northern Illinois Huskies have fallen on hard times. The past five games have seen the Huskies post a 3-2 SU record while failing to cover in all the contests.

Three times NIU failed to cover by 20 or more points while missing the spread win by an average of 17 points per game.

Ohio's low scoring offense pandering to low total

Fans of the Ohio Bobcats have not been treated to high scoring games as of late. In Ohio's past five contests, the under has paid out four times.

Those five games have seen the Bobcats average a mere 20 ppg. Ohio quarterbacks have also thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3) during that span.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:40 PM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Wednesday's games
Buffalo lost its last three games, allowing 31 ppg; they're 0-4 as dogs in 2014, 0-2 on road- they've lost road games by 8-1-10 points. Bulls lost seven of last eight visits to Ohio, losing 38-31/34-17 in last two; the dog is 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games played here. Bobcats are 1-3 in last four games; two of their three I-A wins were by 3 points. MAC home favorites are 5-13 against spread. Hard to back team that fired its coach in-season (Buffalo). Ohio is 3-0 when it scored 23+ points 1-5 if it scored 21 or less.

Northern Illinois won its last five games with Ball State (3-2 vs spread); Huskies ran ball for 910 yards in last three series games- they won last two visits to Muncie, 35-23/59-21. NIU is 5-2 SU but 0-5 vs spread in last five games; they're 3-1 on road this year, winning by 8-14-11, with only loss at SEC's Arkansas. MAC home underdogs are 7-7 this year. Ball State won last two games, scoring 32-35 points, after losing its first five I-A games; Cardinals covered four of five as an underdog this year.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:41 PM

NCAAF

Thursday, November 6

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Wednesday college football betting preview: Buffalo at Ohio, Northern Illinois at Ball State
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Buffalo Bulls at Ohio Bobcats (-4, 55.5)

The Buffalo Bulls have been a fan favorite this season - for all the wrong reasons. Buffalo will look to improve its road performance Wednesday night as it takes on the host Ohio Bobcats in Mid-American Conference action at Peden Stadium. The Bulls are 0-3 away from Buffalo on the season while allowing a whopping 120 points combined in those three games - a welcome sight for an Ohio team that is coming off a 42-21 rout at the hands of Western Michigan.

The Bulls would love nothing more than to repeat the success they had against Ohio last season, when they rolled to a 30-3 victory a year to the day of their next encounter. But they'll need to sort out a problem-riddled defense that has surrendered an average of 31 points during its three-game losing streak. The Bobcats have been inconsistent all season and are languishing in their worst stretch of the season, having dropped three of their past four games overall.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPNU

WEATHER: Fans at Peden Stadium should expect overcast skies with a 63 percent chance of rain, temperatures in the low-50s and calm winds.

ABOUT BUFFALO (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U): The Bulls have one of the most potent passing attacks in the nation - led by quarterback Joe Licata, who has racked up 2,125 yards through the air with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. But good luck trying to figure out which of Licata's receivers to cover; the junior QB has completed passes to 15 different players on the season, with Ron Willoughby's 36 receptions leading the way. Junior running back Anthone Taylor ranks third in the conference in rushing yards (951) and touchdowns (nine).

ABOUT OHIO (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 O/U): The Bobcats boast a largely underwhelming offensive attack, having scored just 19 offensive touchdowns through the first nine games of the season. This has played a major role in Ohio representing one of the strongest O/U plays in the conference, with only a porous defensive effort last time out against Western Michigan ending a four-game Under streak. Prior to last week, their only two Over plays exceeded the respective totals by a combined 3 1/2 points.

TRENDS:

* Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams with losing records.
* Ohio is 1-6 ATS in its last seven November games.
* Over is 6-1 in the Bulls' last seven road games.
* Under is 4-1 in the Bobcats' last five home games.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Ball State Cardinals (+3, 63)

If the Northern Illinois Huskies are going to take over top spot in the Mid-American Conference, they'll have to earn it. The Huskies begin a grueling stretch to end the season Wednesday as they visit the Ball State Cardinals in a pivotal MAC tilt at Scheumann Stadium. Northern Illinois is coming off impressive back-to-back victories, the latest a 28-17 triumph over Eastern Michigan; the Cardinals have also won two straight, most recently a 35-21 rout of Akron.

Paced by one of the nation's most potent rushing attacks, Northern Illinois has rolled to 79 points in its past two games but will finish the season with three of four games away from Huskie Stadium. And if that weren't enough, its last three opponents - Toledo, Ohio and Western Michigan - come into the week a combined 10-4 in conference play. But first, a date with a Ball State team that has been impressive in its own right, scoring 69 points in its past two games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2

WEATHER: Temperatures at Scheumann Stadium will be in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the length of the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Any discussion of Northern Illinois' offensive prowess begins in the backfield, where QB Drew Hare (76 carries, 581 yards, five TDs), Cameron Stingily (91 carries, 477 yards, five TDs) and Joel Bouagnon (76 carries, 414 yards, five TDs) represent one of the most lethal three-pronged attacks in the country. The Huskies are averaging 5.3 yards per carry as a team, and their 21 rushing touchdowns are tied for second in the conference. Hare has been solid throwing the ball, as well, with 11 touchdowns and just one interception.

ABOUT BALL STATE (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U): The Cardinals made a quarterback switch in mid-season, taking Ozzie Mann out of the starting role despite the third-year sophomore throwing six TD passes against just two interceptions. He was replaced by fellow sophomore Jack Milas, who hasn't been any more accurate than his predecessor but has a 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while leading Ball State to consecutive victories. Jahwan Edwards is the star of the show on offense, rushing for 828 yards and eight touchdowns while racking up four 100-yard performances.

TRENDS:

* Northern Illinois is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine road games against teams with losing home records.
* Ball State is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.
* Over is 8-2 in the Cardinals' last 10 November games.
* The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:42 PM

NCAAF

Thursday, November 6

Small chance of rain at Peden Stadium Wednesday

The MAC is back on the Wednesday night schedule and their is a small chance of rain as the Ohio Bobcats host the Buffalo Bulls from Peden Stadium Wednesday.

Forecasts are calling for a 26 percent chance of rain early, but that will increase to 40 percent as the game progresses.

Temperatures will start in the low-50s and drop to the high-40s and will blow toward the north endzone at 2 mph.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:44 PM

Pac-12 Report - Week 11

November 5, 2014

The Pac-12 has a couple of huge games, and many others of intrigue. Notre Dame and Arizona State have a game with huge implications, as do Oregon and Utah. However, all eyes will be on the game between UCLA and Washington, as neither can afford another setback. All games will be very interesting this weekend, even the Washington State-Oregon State tilt.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 6-2 3-2 3-5 3-5

Arizona State 7-1 5-1 4-4 3-5

California 5-4 3-4 6-3 6-3

Colorado 2-7 0-6 4-5 6-3

Oregon 8-1 5-1 5-4 5-3-1

Oregon State 4-4 1-4 2-6 4-3-1

Southern California 6-3 5-2 6-3 4-5

Stanford 5-4 3-3 4-5 2-6

UCLA 7-2 4-2 2-7 3-5-1

Utah 6-2 3-2 7-1 2-5-1

Washington 6-3 2-3 4-5 3-6

Washington State 2-7 1-5 3-6 4-5

Notre Dame at Arizona State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

The Sun Devils host the Irish in a game with huge implications. Last season the teams met on a neutral field and Arizona State suffered a 37-34 heartbreaker against the Irish, so now they look to return the favor. Arizona State is just 1-4 ATS over its past five home games, and 1-4 ATS in the past five non-conference tilts. They're also just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games in the month of November. The Irish are an impressive 6-0 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS in their past five against the Pac-12, including a win against Stanford last month. Total players will want to note the under is 22-8 in the past 30 for the Irish against Pac-12 teams, and 5-1 in their past six road games. The under is also 7-3 in AZ State's past 10, and 5-2 in their past seven against a winning team.

Washington State at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Washington State heads to Corvallis for its first game since losing a seventh game, and therefore becoming bowl ineliglble. It will be interesting to see how the Cougs respond, especially after losing QB Connor Halliday (ankle) to a season-ending injury. While the road team has covered in five straight meetings in this series, Washington State is 3-11 ATS in their past 14 meetings against Oregon State. The total has some conflicting trends. The under is 15-5-1 in the past 21 road games for Wazzu, and 5-2 in their past seven Pac-12 games, but the over is 23-10-1 in their past 34 on field turf. The over is 3-0-1 in Oregon State's past four, and 9-2 in their past 11 in November, but the under is 3-1-1 in their past five at Reser Stadium.

UCLA at Washington (FOX Sports 1, 7:00 p.m.)

The Bruins head to Seattle to battle with the Huskies. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five league games and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. Washington is 17-8 in their past 25 home games, however they are just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against the Bruins, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven home games against UCLA. The under might be the play, as it has cashed in five of the past seven meetings in this series. The under is 3-1-1 in their past five overall, and 9-2 in their past 11 road games. The under is 8-3 in Washington's past 11, and 19-7-1 in their past 27 home games. The under has also hit in 11 of the past 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Colorado at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)

The Buffaloes aren't a terrible team, losing three of their past five games by five or fewer points. The over has also cashed in five straight games for Colorado, and 10 of the past 11 against a team with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in their past six games away from Folsom Field, too. Arizona started the season 5-0 SU, but they have lost two of the past three games and they're also 1-2 ATS during the span. The under has hit in three of the past four games, too, and is 8-2 in their past 10 games at home. The over has hit in six of the past seven for Arizona at home against a team with a losing road record.

Oregon at Utah (ESPN, 10:00 p.m.)

Oregon hits the road for Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City looking to maintain its dominance in the Pac-12 and keep their playoff hopes on track. Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their past four conference games, and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Ducks are also 15-4 ATS in their past 19 road games. Utah is 7-0 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in their past four games overall. The Utes are also 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 at Rice-Eccles against a team with a winning road record. The total trends are conflicting a bit, as the over is 3-0-1 in the past four for Oregon, but the under is 5-1-1 in their past seven road games. The under is 5-0-1 in Utah's past six, and 6-2 in their past eight home games while going 19-7-1 in their past 27 against a team with a winning record.

BYE WEEKS

California, Southern California

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:46 PM

WF looking for home upset

November 5, 2014

CLEMSON TIGERS (6-2) at WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS (2-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Clemson -21, Total: 42

No. 19 Clemson tries to stay within striking distance of an ACC title-game appearance when it travels to struggling Wake Forest on Thursday night.

After losing to both Georgia and Florida State over the first three weeks of the season, the Tigers have won their past five games SU. They have been at least six-point favorites in each game during their SU win streak while going 2-3 ATS and have failed to cover the spread in each of their past three contests. Their offense struggled at home against Syracuse most recently as they won 16-6 as 17-point favorites while allowing a mere 170 yards of offense in a sloppy contest in which the schools combined for seven turnovers.

The Demon Deacons have really had a poor season, and after going 2-2 (SU and ATS) in their non-conference games, they have gone 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS) in ACC play where they average a pathetic 9.2 PPG and 164 total YPG. The team put up a valiant effort in its last game on Oct. 25 as it covered the 13-point spread against Boston College at home with a 23-17 loss. In the defeat, Wake had a mere 261 yards of offense while doing basically nothing on the ground (19 yards on 33 carries).

Clemson has won five straight meetings in this series, going 4-1 ATS and winning by an average of 27.2 PPG. The club has piled up 1,183 passing yards (394 per game) in the past three meetings, including 407 in last season’s 56-7 laugher as 28.5-point favorites. In that big win, the Tigers held Wake Forest to a putrid 222 yards of total offense while forcing two turnovers.

Trends show that the Tigers are 8-2 ATS after allowing 100 yards or less in their previous game over the past three seasons while being a poor 2-12 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in five straight contests since 1992.

The offense for Clemson could be thin, as QB Deshaun Watson (finger) and WR Charone Peake (knee) are both listed as doubtful. Watson will reportedly dress for the game and could be available if the score gets close or backup QB Cole Stoudt (shoulder) isn't healthy enough to play. The Demon Deacons will also miss some offense as WR Matt James (hand) continues to be out.

Clemson started out the year playing like a potent offense, but has recently slowed down with 23 or fewer points in each of the past three games. For the season, the Tigers are averaging 291.3 YPG through the air (22nd in FBS) and 140.8 YPG on the ground with 32.3 PPG. With QB Deshaun Watson (1,176 pass yards, 12 TD, 2 INT) only available in an emergency situation, QB Cole Stoudt (1,143 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) will get the start. He has already started five games this season with unspectacular results. In those contests he has averaged just 6.3 YPA while attempting at least 29 passes in each of his starts.

Freshman HB Wayne Gallman (299 rush yards, 1 TD) has been the lead back for this program and was really leaned on against Syracuse when he went for 101 yards on 28 attempts (3.6 YPC) while also having at least one catch in every game thus far. There are two receivers that need to be watched carefully by the opposing defense as WRs Mike Williams (743 rec yards, 4 TD) and Artavis Scott (502 rec yards, 3 TD) bring different styles of play while being productive.

The defense has actually been a big strength for the Tigers as they are allowing a very low 18.3 PPG (10th in FBS) and the second-fewest total yards in the nation (268.8 YPG). Much of the strong play stems from senior DL Vic Beasley (20 tackles, 8 sacks) while LB Stephone Anthony (49 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT) leads the team in tackles.

While Clemson’s offense has been average, the Demon Deacons offense has been horrendous as they rank 108th in the nation in passing (179.0 YPG) and 128th in rushing (34.5 YPG) while scoring a miniscule 14.8 PPG (126th in FBS). QB John Wolford (1,377 pass yards, 7 TD, 13 INT) has had his issues as a freshman and has thrown at least one pick in every game on the season while attempting 30 or more passes in 5-of-8 contests.

No runner has done well in this backfield, but HB Orville Reynolds (143 rush yards, 1 TD) is the best of the bunch despite averaging just 2.4 YPC. WRs E.J. Scott (373 rec yards, 4 TD) and Cam Serigne (340 rec yards, 2 TD) each have over 30 receptions while averaging less than 11 yards per catch.

The defense is not as embarrassing as the offense, as the unit allows 24.6 PPG (54th in nation) to the opposition. DB Ryan Janvion (79 tackles, 5 TFL) and LB Brandon Chubb (70 tackles, 1 sack) hope they can breathe some life into the team with a solid defensive effort on Thursday.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:52 PM

Tech Trends - Week 11

November 5, 2014

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BUFFALO at OHIO
Solich only 2-6 last eight on board TY and a mere 4-11 against number last 15 on board since mid 2013. Solich has also dropped last three vs. spread against Bulls.
Slight to UB, based on recent Solich negatives.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BALL STATE
NIU no covers last 5 TY. Lembo, meanwhile, rallying with wins and covers last two TY, though Cards just 1-3 vs. spread in Muncie TY after 8-4 spread mark at home past two years. NIU has won last five SU in series and has covered last two and 3 of last 4 vs. Cards.
Slight to Ball State, based on recent NIU spread woes.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST
Clemson no covers last 3 TY but Tigers have won and covered last two and 4 of last 5 vs. Wake. Dabo 2-3 as road chalk since LY (0-1 TY). Clawson 4-3 as dog TY, now 14-9 in role since 2011 at BGU and Wake.
Slight to Clemson, based on series trends.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MEMPHIS at TEMPLE
Owls 9-4 as dog for Matt Rhule since 2013 (2-2 as home dog). Memphis 3-1 vs. line away TY and 5-2 vs. spread last seven on road.
Slight to Memphis, based on recent trends.

UTAH STATE at WYOMING
Utags have won and covered big last two meetings (2011 & '13). Utags 5-2 last seven as road chalk (0-0 TY).
USU, based on team and series trends.

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 8

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PENN STATE at INDIANA
Home team has covered last three meetings. Though James Franklin no covers last two on road or 4 of last 6 TY. Franklin was 25-14 vs. line at Vandy, now 4-4 vs. line with Nittany. Hoosiers 1-3 vs. line at Bloomington TY and 2-5 vs. spread last seven as host.
Slight to Penn State, based on extended James Franklin numbers.

GEORGIA at KENTUCKY
Dogs have not lost to Cats SU since 2009 but only 1-2 vs. line last three meetings. Richt 8-6 as visiting chalk since 2011. UK 6-2 vs. line TY (5-1 at home) and has covered 7 of last 9 since late LY. Cats 2-0 as home dog for Stoops TY.
Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.

LOUISIANA TECH at UAB
LT 7-2 vs. line in 2013 and 5-0 vs. spread away.
La Tech, based on recent trends.

IOWA at MINNESOTA
Floyd! Iowa has won and covered last two Floyd battles and Ferentz is 8-1 vs. spread last 9 away from Iowa City. But Gophers 8-4 vs. spread last 12 at home.
Iowa, based on Ferentz road trends.

MICHIGAN at NORTHWESTERN
Pat Fitz 2-6 vs. line TY and now 3-15 last 18 vs. number since early 2013. Hoke has beaten Fitz in OT each of past two seasons (took 3 OT LY). If Fitz a dog note 3-6 spread mark last nine in role (1-2 as home dog since LY). Hoke, however, 1-7 SU last eight away from Ann Arbor.
Slight to NU, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at NC STATE
Pack only 2-7 vs. line last 9 at Raleigh. Paul Johnson 3-0-1 as visiting chalk since 2012 and has covered 3 of 4 away TY.
Georgia Tech, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at PURDUE
Boilermakers very surprising 4-0 last four and 6-1 vs. spread last seven TY, so dismissing some of the poor Hazell numbers LY. Recent series, however, has been all Wiscy, wins and covers in eight straight dating to 2004 (didn't play in 2007-8). But Badgers only 4-8 last 12 vs. line since late 2013 for G Andersen.
Purdue, based on recent trends.

UL-MONROE at APP STATE
App has romped big in last two games TY. ULM, 1-5-1 last seven TY. Warhawks were 10-6 as road dog since 2011 entering this season but 1-2-1 in role TY.
Slight to App, based on recent trends.

DUKE at SYRACUSE
Cuse only 3-6 vs. line last nine at Dome and just 3-4-1 as home dog since 2011. Cutcliffe 6-2 vs. line TY and 16-5-1 vs. number since 2013.
Duke, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at VANDERBILT
Curious series trend with road team covering last five meetings. Dores are 3-0 vs. line away TY but 2-4 vs. number in Nashville. Muschamp 7-17-1 last 24 on board since later 2012. Gators 3-13 last 16 as chalk.
Vandy, based on Muschamp negatives.

LOUISVILLE at BOSTON COLLEGE
Cards 3-1 vs. line away TY and 5-1 last six vs. spread away from Papa John's (4-1 last five as chalk away from home). Eagles, however, 10-3 vs. spread last 13 as host (1-1 as home dog TY).
BC, based on extended home mark.

IOWA STATE at KANSAS
Jayhawks 2-1-1 vs. line since Weis dismissed, though still just 4-8 vs. line last 12 at Lawrence. KU no SU wins vs. ISU since 2009 and Cyclones have covered last two meetings. ISU on 5-1-1 spread run last six in 2014.
Slight to ISU, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA at ARKANSAS STATE
Note that road team is 7-2 vs. line in USA games TY, with Jags 3-1 SU and vs. spread away. Jags 7-3 vs. line away since LY. Ark State, however, 3-0 vs. line at Jonesboro TY and 11-3 vs. line last 13 since late 2013.
Slight to USA, based on team trends.

TULANE at HOUSTON
UH on 5-1 spread run last six TY. Tulane 1-3 vs. line away TY.
UH, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA STATE at TROY
Troy and its 1-8 SU is nonetheless favored in this game, Trojans 1-2 vs. line as chalk TY, 5-15 vs. number last 20 as home chalk. GSU 7-2 vs. spread last nine as visitor.
GSU, based on team trends.

UTSA at RICE
Coker 1-5 vs. line last six in 2014. Owls covers in 5 straight and 6 of 7 this season, also on 20-9 spread run since mid 2012.
Rice, based on team trends.

FIU at OLD DOMINION
FIU has actually covered three straight on road since late 2013. ODU no covers last five TY and 0-4 vs. spread in Norfolk TY.
FIU, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS
Horns 1-3 vs. line at home TY and 6-10 last 16 vs. spread at Austin. Charlie Strong only 2-3 as dog TY after 8-1 mark in role past three years at 'Ville.
WVU, based on recent Texas negatives.

UCLA at WASHINGTON
Bruins just 2-7 vs. line this season, 1-4 as road chalk. Chris Petersen just 3-5 as dog since last season at Boise & UW.
Slight to UW, based on recent UCLA woes.

SMU at TULSA
Helpless SMU 1-6 vs. line TY, but Tulsa just 6-14 vs. spread since 2013.
Slight to Tulsa, based on SMU woes.

UCONN vs. ARMY (at Yankee Stadium)
Diaco has covered last two at UConn after dropping first six vs. line. Army just 1-23 SU last 24 away from West Point.
UConn, based on Army road woes.

TEXAS A&M at AUBURN
Malzahn 15-4 last 19 on board. Ags no covers last five or six of last seven TY, just 5-13 last 18 on board since early 2013.
Auburn, based on team trends.

ALABAMA at LSU
LSU has covered last two and 4 of last 5 vs. Bama at Baton Rouge. Miles 5-3 last 8 as dog. Tide 0-4 vs. line away from Tuscaloosa TY and no covers last seven away from Bryant-Denny Stadium.
LSU, based on team and series trends at Baton Rouge.

BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA
Art Briles only 3-6 vs. spread last 9 away from Waco (2-2 TY) but 7-1 last eight as dog. Bears have covered last three and four of last five vs. Sooners. Stoops only 2-3 last five in revenge.
Baylor, based on team and series trends.

VIRGINIA at FLORIDA STATE
FSU on 2-7 spread run last nine since late 2013. Cavs no covers last four TY.
Slight to FSU, based on team trends.

UTEP at WKU
Miners only 3-8 vs. line away for Kugler since LY but 2-2 in 2014 and off of 34-0 rout of UTSA on road. WKU just 2-5 last seven TY vs. line but has covered 2 of 3 at home.
Slight to WKU, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE
Road team has covered last four meetings. Leach 7-2 vs. line as visitor since LY, Beavs 1-7 vs. line TY, just 1-6 vs. mark last six at Corvallis.
WSU, based on team and series trends.

AIR FORCE at UNLV
Hauck has won and covered last two vs. Force and covered 3 of 4 vs. Falcs since 2010. Force has dropped last four vs. line at Sam Boyd. Hauck 13-6-1 as home dog since 2010 (3-3 since LY. Note Falcs 0-9 vs. line last nine after Commander-in-Chief's games vs. Army & Navy. Falcs no covers last four as road chalk.
UNLV, based on team and series trends.

IDAHO at SAN DIEGO STATE
Vandals impressive 4-0 as visitor against spread.
Idaho, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at SOUTHERN MISS
Herd 5-1-1 vs, line last seven TY. Herd has won and covered last three meetings and big blowouts last two years. Herd 3-1 vs. line away TY after 2-5 as visitor last season.
Marshall, based on team and series trends.

FAU at NORTH TEXAS
UNT no covers last four or 5 of last 6 TY. FAU 5-1 vs. line last six TY, now 22-7 last 29 on board.
FAU, based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at TEXAS STATE
Franchione no covers last three at Bobcat Stadium TY. GSU 7-2 vs. spread.
GSU, based on team trends.

COLORADO at ARIZONA
CU has covered 5 of last 7 TY, though only 1-3 vs. spread on road. Cats have won big last two years vs. Buffs (but no cover in 2012). UA 1-3 last four as home chalk.
UA, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at NEW MEXICO
Davie has covered last two years vs. Boise and Lobos have covered all three since 2011 (though getting 25 or more each time). But Davie no covers last five at Albuquerque (0-6 last 6 as home dog) Boise 24-10 as visiting chalk since 2008.
Boise, based on team trends.

HAWAII at COLORADO STATE
Rams on 19-7 spread uptick for McElwain. Chow no covers first three on road TY as visiting team 7-1 vs. spread in Leahey games. Rams have won and covered last two meetings.
CSU, based on team and series trends.

OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE
Dantonio on 15-5 spread run last 20 on board. Urban 6-2 vs. line TY. If dog note Meyer 3-0 in role at OSU, and 11-2 in rare role since 2003 with Utah.
Slight to MSU, based on recent team trends.

ULL at NEW MEXICO STATE
ULL 8-4 vs. spread on Sun Belt road for Hudspeth, also wins and covered last 3 TY. Ags have covered first three as Las Cruces dog TY after 9-18 mark previous 27 in role.
ULL, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME at ARIZONA STATE
Irish 12-6 SU last 17 away from South Bend. But Graham 12-4 SU at Tempe since arriving at ASU in 2012. Irish won close 37-34 at Jerry Jones LY.
Slight to ASU, based on team trends.

OREGON at UTAH
Utes 7-1 vs. line TY for Whittingham, also 4-0 as dog. Utes 5-1 last six as home dog. Ducks 3-0-1 last four vs. line TY but were 1-10 previous 11 in reg season play.
Utah, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE at TCU
Bill Snyder 23-9 as dog since returning to K-State in 2009. Cats have also covered last six TY. But TCU a smashing 7-1 vs. line in 2014.
Slight to K-State, based on extended Bill Snyder dog numbers.

SAN JOSE STATE at FRESNO STATE
Spartans have now won last two and covered last three in series (didn't play in 2012). Caragher is 4-1 vs. line on MW road since LY.
SJSU, based on team and series trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2014, 02:54 PM

Final Four Analysis

November 5, 2014

Although my Power Rankings differ on a few teams, my main takeaway from Tuesday's second release of the College Football Playoff rankings was that the selection committee is doing an excellent job.

After last week’s release, I suggested on multiple radio shows that those outside of SEC Country needed to pop a chill pill. Four of the top six teams hailed from the SEC West, but those teams were going to knock each other off in November. Alas, Auburn beat Ole Miss, which was fourth last week, sending the Rebels down to No. 11. (See, wasn’t that easy?)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF - TOP 4

Rank Team Record Future Odds (Sportsbook.ag)

1 Mississippi State 8-0 15/2

2 Florida State 8-0 7/1

3 Auburn 7-1 12/1

4 Oregon 8-1 9/2

Although it struggled to sneak past Arkansas, Mississippi State was rewarded with the No. 1 seed once again last night. The Bulldogs are again followed by the defending national champs, the Florida State Seminoles, at No. 2. Yet again, FSU had to rally from a double-digit deficit to get out of Louisville with a 42-31 win in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated.

The third and fourth seeds are Auburn and Oregon, respectively. The Ducks, by virtue of a 45-16 win over Stanford in a double-revenge spot, climbed one notch into the coveted four hole.

Alabama moved up a spot from sixth to fifth. The Crimson Tide is joined by TCU at No. 6 to complete the First Two Out category. Since Alabama plays Auburn and Mississippi St. later this month, the Horned Frogs have no reason to complain about their current position.

With TCU and Kansas State (#7 this week) squaring off Saturday in Ft. Worth, the winner will be in fine shape. In fact, all of the fringe contenders want to root for the Wildcats in that showdown, because Gary Patterson’s team will be heavily favored in its three remaining games: at Kansas, at Texas (after an open date, albeit on a Thursday night) and vs. Iowa State.

On the flip side, Kansas State will still have to navigate through daunting road assignments at West Va. (#23) and at Baylor (#12).

The rest of the Top 10 looks like this: Michigan St. (#8), Arizona St. (#9) and Notre Dame (#10). The Sun Devils and Irish will collide Saturday in Tempe, while the Spartans will take on Ohio State (#14) in East Lansing.

We saw a pair of one-loss Pac-12 teams go down in Week 10. Utah lost an overtime heartbreaker at Arizona St. in a game that came down to field-goal kickers. Meanwhile, Arizona got zero help from its kicker and gave up a long third-quarter TD pass from Brett Hundley, who was otherwise held in check all night.

Oregon and Arizona St. remain on track – if they win out – to meet in the Pac-12 title game, but don’t expect that to happen. The Ducks might win out, but they could go down this weekend at Utah. ASU has multiple challenges in front of it, including Notre Dame as previously noted.

Although FSU is second, still unbeaten and has the easiest path of all teams in terms of remaining schedule, it is the one team that can’t afford a loss. The ACC is weak, Oklahoma State’s season has gone South and the ‘Noles haven’t had to face the ACC Coastal’s top teams, Duke and Georgia Tech.

FSU wants Florida and Oklahoma State to finish strong and needs Notre Dame to play well. But how well? If FSU and Notre Dame both had one loss, would the ‘Noles get in ahead of the Irish based on the head-to-head victory? I’m not so sure. First of all, the game was in Tallahassee and decided by a flag in the final minute.

Secondly, Notre Dame would have wins at Arizona State and at Southern Cal if it wins out, not to mention a decent home scalp over Louisville. Again, though, if FSU does indeed lose (presumably at Miami with the Hurricanes demonstrating rapid improvement in recent weeks), it will need a slew of upsets to occur to even be a factor in the conversation.

But these things do happen. In 2007, lots of teams in front of LSU -- most notably West Virginia, which lost outright at home to Pitt as a 28.5-point favorite in the Backyard Brawl -- lost to allow the Tigers, who had lost overtime games at Kentucky and vs. Arkansas, to get to the BCS Championship Game and win it all with a dominant victory over Ohio State. On that note, especially now that we're dealing with four teams, there is the potential for a two-loss team to get invited to the semifinals.

I think the most-likely candidate could be Auburn. Gus Malzahn's squad already owns huge road wins over Ole Miss and Kansas St. It can add another at Georgia in two weeks. The folks on The Plains want Mississippi State to lose to Alabama and Ole Miss and in that scenario, Auburn might get the advantage among two-loss teams if it loses a serious nail-biter to ‘Bama in the Iron Bowl.

Sure, Mississippi State would have a head-to-head win over Auburn, but the Tigers’ non-conference slate was much tougher and so was its SEC schedule (AU had UGA and South Carolina from the East, while MSU drew Vandy and Kentucky). Most of all, Auburn would have more impressive road wins and its non-conference scalp of K-St. certainly looms larger than any of Dan Mullen’s non-con triumphs.

There’s lots of football left and too many potential scenarios to cover them all. It’s going to be exciting and we’re going to love every minute of it.

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The bum's november college football best bets,news,stats etc. !

The bum's november college football best bets,news,stats etc. !

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