Saturday's SEC Showdowns
November 20, 2014
**Ole Miss at Arkansas**
-- As of late Thursday, most books had Ole Miss (8-2 straight up, 6-3-1 against the spread) listed as a 3.5-point favorite for Saturday's showdown in Fayetteville. The total was 45.5 points. The Razorbacks were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).
-- I've been saying all year that Arkansas (5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS) is going to clip at least one SEC West powerhouse. One down, two to go. The Razorbacks broke out the cream cheese and handed LSU a bagel Saturday night in Fayetteville. It brought a 17-game losing streak against SEC foes to an end. At long last, Hog Fans can put the Bobby Petrino Disaster behind them and look forward to a bright future under Bret Beliema.
-- Arkansas won a 17-0 decision over LSU as a one-point home favorite. The defense completely stymied LSU's offense, holding it to 123 yards of total offense. The Tigers could muster just 35 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins both rushed for one TD apiece for the Hogs.
-- Arkansas has covered the spread at an 8-1 clip in its last nine games. The Razorbacks have been dynamite at home this year, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.
-- Ole Miss has had two weeks to prep for Hogs. After dropping a 35-31 heartbreaker to Auburn three weeks ago, the Rebels stroked Presbyterian 48-0 but came up just shy of covering the 50.5-point spread. Bo Wallace threw a pair of TD passes and ran for another score. Jordan Wilkins ran for 171 yards and one TD on 10 carries, while Mark Dodson rushed for 128 yards and two TDs on just three totes.
-- For the season, Wallace has a 22/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and four rushing TDs. He must play out the rest of the season without his favorite target in sophomore WR Laquon Treadwell.
-- Arkansas QB Brandon Allen has vastly improved this season after struggling with a shoulder injury for much of the 2013 campaign. Allen has a 15/5 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing scores.
-- Williams has rushed for a team-high 932 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Collins has run for 886 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC.
-- As a road favorite during Hugh Freeze's tenure, the Rebels own a 3-3 spread record. Arkansas is 2-3 ATS as a home 'dog on Bielema's watch.
-- Ole Miss has won back-to-back games over Arkansas, but the Razorbacks took the money in last year's 34-24 loss in Oxford as 17-point underdogs. The Rebels won 30-27 as 6.5-point 'dogs in their last trip to Fayetteville.
-- The 'over' is 6-4 overall for Arkansas, 4-2 in its home games. The Hogs have seen their games average a combined score of 56.2 points per game.
-- The 'under' is 7-2 overall for Ole Miss, 3-0 in its road games. The Rebels have seen their games average a combined score of 45.3 PPG.
-- The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals.
-- CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Vanderbilt at Mississippi State**
-- As of Thursday, most betting shops had Mississippi State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) installed as a 30.5-point favorite with a total of 53 for 'over/under' wagers. 5Dimes has the Commodores available on the money line for a monster 45/1 payout (risk $100 to win $4,500).
-- Dan Mullen's team went down for the first time last week in Tuscaloosa, dropping a 25-20 decision at Alabama. However, Mississippi State covered the number in backdoor fashion thanks to Dak Prescott's four-yard TD pass to Jameon Lewis on fourth down with 15 seconds remaining. The scoring strike allowed the Bulldogs to take the cash as 10-point underdogs.
-- Despite throwing a pair of TD passes and accounting for 290 passing yards and 82 rushing yards, Prescott had his worst game of the season. He was intercepted three times, including a terrible pick deep in the red zone in the third quarter to end an outstanding drive. Prescott has been intercepted eight times in the last four SEC games. The performance at 'Bama all but ended Prescott's realistic hopes of winning the Heisman Trophy, although he's still a strong candidate to be invited to New York City.
-- Josh Robinson rushed for only 37 yards on 12 carries against the Crimson Tide. It was his second-lowest output this year. Nevertheless, Robinson surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the season. He now has 1,021 rushing yards, 11 TDs and a 6.5 YPC average.
-- For the season, Prescott has a 20/10 TD-INT ratio and 11 rushing scores.
-- As a home favorite during Mullen's tenure, MSU has compiled a 15-10 spread record.
-- This is a classic sandwich spot for the Bulldogs, who are coming off a huge game and have the biggest Egg Bowl showdown in decades on deck next week.
-- Vanderbilt (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) was on a 5-1 ATS run until its last outing when Florida came into Nashville and captured a 34-10 win as a 14-point road 'chalk.' Johnny McCrary threw a TD pass to give the Commodores an early 7-0 advantage, but he was intercepted twice later in the game. He finished with 160 passing yards.
-- McCrary, a redshirt freshman, will make his fourth career start in Starkville. He has completed 53.5 percent of his throws for 806 yards with a 9/6 TD-INT ratio.
-- Vandy redshirt freshman RB Ralph Webb has run for a team-high 838 yards and three TDs. He's averaging 4.5 YPC. Webb is the man for the present and the future for Derek Mason, who dismissed junior RB Jerron Seymour from the program on Thursday. Seymour had 14 rushing TDs in 2003, but he was only given 25 carries this year. Mason also booted junior RB Brian Kimbrow earlier this season.
-- Vandy has thrived as a road underdog for a solid decade, including this season. The Commodores are 3-0 ATS as road 'dogs this year. Going back to 2004, they own a 30-13-1 spread record in 44 games as road puppies.
-- Since 1989, these SEC rivals have met only seven times. Mississippi State is 6-1 both SU and ATS in those seven encounters. The last meeting was in 2009 when MSU collected a 15-3 win as an 8.5-point road underdog.
-- Totals have been a wash both overall (5-5) and at home (3-3) for Mississippi State
-- Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for Vandy, too. It has seen the 'under' go 2-1 in its three road assignments.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Vandy hasn't beaten a top-10 foe since besting sixth-ranked South Carolina on Oct. 20 of 2007.
-- Vandy has played an FBS-high 31 freshmen this year.
-- Just when Butch Jones seemed to be getting it going with back-to-back wins at South Carolina and vs. Kentucky, Tennessee got bad news earlier this week. Senior linebacker A.J. Johnson and sophomore CB Michael Williams have been suspended indefinitely from all team-related activities pending the result of a police investigation. Johnson and Williams are facing sexual-assault allegations stemming from an incident in Knoxville early Sunday morning. Also, DB Brian Randolph is suspended for the first half of Saturday's home game vs. Missouri. Johnson leads the SEC in tackles with 101, while Williams has started five games and made 23 tackles. Randolph has 76 tackles, one forced fumble and one interception. As of Thursday, most books had the Volunteers favored by 3.5 points.
-- After winning a 34-27 decision at Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog, Missouri has taken the cash in eight consecutive road assignments. Going back to 2007, the Tigers are on a 25-9 ATS run in their last 34 road games.
-- Florida is 7-14 ATS as a home favorite during Will Muschamp's tenure. As of late Thursday afternoon, a line had not yet been released for the Gators' home finale Saturday vs. Eastern Kentucky. A number should be out late Thursday or early Friday.
November 20, 2014
**Ole Miss at Arkansas**
-- As of late Thursday, most books had Ole Miss (8-2 straight up, 6-3-1 against the spread) listed as a 3.5-point favorite for Saturday's showdown in Fayetteville. The total was 45.5 points. The Razorbacks were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).
-- I've been saying all year that Arkansas (5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS) is going to clip at least one SEC West powerhouse. One down, two to go. The Razorbacks broke out the cream cheese and handed LSU a bagel Saturday night in Fayetteville. It brought a 17-game losing streak against SEC foes to an end. At long last, Hog Fans can put the Bobby Petrino Disaster behind them and look forward to a bright future under Bret Beliema.
-- Arkansas won a 17-0 decision over LSU as a one-point home favorite. The defense completely stymied LSU's offense, holding it to 123 yards of total offense. The Tigers could muster just 35 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins both rushed for one TD apiece for the Hogs.
-- Arkansas has covered the spread at an 8-1 clip in its last nine games. The Razorbacks have been dynamite at home this year, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.
-- Ole Miss has had two weeks to prep for Hogs. After dropping a 35-31 heartbreaker to Auburn three weeks ago, the Rebels stroked Presbyterian 48-0 but came up just shy of covering the 50.5-point spread. Bo Wallace threw a pair of TD passes and ran for another score. Jordan Wilkins ran for 171 yards and one TD on 10 carries, while Mark Dodson rushed for 128 yards and two TDs on just three totes.
-- For the season, Wallace has a 22/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and four rushing TDs. He must play out the rest of the season without his favorite target in sophomore WR Laquon Treadwell.
-- Arkansas QB Brandon Allen has vastly improved this season after struggling with a shoulder injury for much of the 2013 campaign. Allen has a 15/5 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing scores.
-- Williams has rushed for a team-high 932 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Collins has run for 886 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC.
-- As a road favorite during Hugh Freeze's tenure, the Rebels own a 3-3 spread record. Arkansas is 2-3 ATS as a home 'dog on Bielema's watch.
-- Ole Miss has won back-to-back games over Arkansas, but the Razorbacks took the money in last year's 34-24 loss in Oxford as 17-point underdogs. The Rebels won 30-27 as 6.5-point 'dogs in their last trip to Fayetteville.
-- The 'over' is 6-4 overall for Arkansas, 4-2 in its home games. The Hogs have seen their games average a combined score of 56.2 points per game.
-- The 'under' is 7-2 overall for Ole Miss, 3-0 in its road games. The Rebels have seen their games average a combined score of 45.3 PPG.
-- The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals.
-- CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Vanderbilt at Mississippi State**
-- As of Thursday, most betting shops had Mississippi State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) installed as a 30.5-point favorite with a total of 53 for 'over/under' wagers. 5Dimes has the Commodores available on the money line for a monster 45/1 payout (risk $100 to win $4,500).
-- Dan Mullen's team went down for the first time last week in Tuscaloosa, dropping a 25-20 decision at Alabama. However, Mississippi State covered the number in backdoor fashion thanks to Dak Prescott's four-yard TD pass to Jameon Lewis on fourth down with 15 seconds remaining. The scoring strike allowed the Bulldogs to take the cash as 10-point underdogs.
-- Despite throwing a pair of TD passes and accounting for 290 passing yards and 82 rushing yards, Prescott had his worst game of the season. He was intercepted three times, including a terrible pick deep in the red zone in the third quarter to end an outstanding drive. Prescott has been intercepted eight times in the last four SEC games. The performance at 'Bama all but ended Prescott's realistic hopes of winning the Heisman Trophy, although he's still a strong candidate to be invited to New York City.
-- Josh Robinson rushed for only 37 yards on 12 carries against the Crimson Tide. It was his second-lowest output this year. Nevertheless, Robinson surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the season. He now has 1,021 rushing yards, 11 TDs and a 6.5 YPC average.
-- For the season, Prescott has a 20/10 TD-INT ratio and 11 rushing scores.
-- As a home favorite during Mullen's tenure, MSU has compiled a 15-10 spread record.
-- This is a classic sandwich spot for the Bulldogs, who are coming off a huge game and have the biggest Egg Bowl showdown in decades on deck next week.
-- Vanderbilt (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) was on a 5-1 ATS run until its last outing when Florida came into Nashville and captured a 34-10 win as a 14-point road 'chalk.' Johnny McCrary threw a TD pass to give the Commodores an early 7-0 advantage, but he was intercepted twice later in the game. He finished with 160 passing yards.
-- McCrary, a redshirt freshman, will make his fourth career start in Starkville. He has completed 53.5 percent of his throws for 806 yards with a 9/6 TD-INT ratio.
-- Vandy redshirt freshman RB Ralph Webb has run for a team-high 838 yards and three TDs. He's averaging 4.5 YPC. Webb is the man for the present and the future for Derek Mason, who dismissed junior RB Jerron Seymour from the program on Thursday. Seymour had 14 rushing TDs in 2003, but he was only given 25 carries this year. Mason also booted junior RB Brian Kimbrow earlier this season.
-- Vandy has thrived as a road underdog for a solid decade, including this season. The Commodores are 3-0 ATS as road 'dogs this year. Going back to 2004, they own a 30-13-1 spread record in 44 games as road puppies.
-- Since 1989, these SEC rivals have met only seven times. Mississippi State is 6-1 both SU and ATS in those seven encounters. The last meeting was in 2009 when MSU collected a 15-3 win as an 8.5-point road underdog.
-- Totals have been a wash both overall (5-5) and at home (3-3) for Mississippi State
-- Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for Vandy, too. It has seen the 'under' go 2-1 in its three road assignments.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Vandy hasn't beaten a top-10 foe since besting sixth-ranked South Carolina on Oct. 20 of 2007.
-- Vandy has played an FBS-high 31 freshmen this year.
-- Just when Butch Jones seemed to be getting it going with back-to-back wins at South Carolina and vs. Kentucky, Tennessee got bad news earlier this week. Senior linebacker A.J. Johnson and sophomore CB Michael Williams have been suspended indefinitely from all team-related activities pending the result of a police investigation. Johnson and Williams are facing sexual-assault allegations stemming from an incident in Knoxville early Sunday morning. Also, DB Brian Randolph is suspended for the first half of Saturday's home game vs. Missouri. Johnson leads the SEC in tackles with 101, while Williams has started five games and made 23 tackles. Randolph has 76 tackles, one forced fumble and one interception. As of Thursday, most books had the Volunteers favored by 3.5 points.
-- After winning a 34-27 decision at Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog, Missouri has taken the cash in eight consecutive road assignments. Going back to 2007, the Tigers are on a 25-9 ATS run in their last 34 road games.
-- Florida is 7-14 ATS as a home favorite during Will Muschamp's tenure. As of late Thursday afternoon, a line had not yet been released for the Gators' home finale Saturday vs. Eastern Kentucky. A number should be out late Thursday or early Friday.
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