The bum's november college football best bets,news,stats etc. !

[StarDust Bum]

Texas Thanksgiving highlights Big 12 week

November 26, 2014

Things to watch in Week 14 of the Big 12 Conference season, a holiday week version:

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 6 TCU at Texas, on Thanksgiving night. This will be the 1,200th game in Horned Frogs history, but only the second time since 1928 they've played on Thanksgiving Day. The last time was two years ago at Texas, when Big 12 newcomer TCU beat Texas for its 600th victory. The Horned Frogs (9-1) are now playoff contenders - still No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings - and looking to win a Big 12 title. Bowl-bound Texas (6-5) goes into its regular-season finale with a three-game winning streak for first-year coach Charlie Strong.

BEST MATCHUP: Art Briles vs. Kliff Kingsbury. Both coaches like big-play offenses. They were once at Texas Tech together, when Briles was the running backs coach from 2000-02 while Kingsbury was the starting quarterback. Kingsbury's second season at his alma mater will end with a losing record, so this is the closest the Red Raiders (4-7) get to a bowl game. Briles has Baylor (9-1) in contention for another Big 12 title and a playoff spot. Baylor is the Big 12 leader with 345 yards passing per game and 30 TDs, while Tech averages 328 yards with a league-high 34 TDs. In the last three meetings in the Dallas Cowboys' climate-controlled stadium, the teams have combined to average nearly 101 points and 1,145 total yards.

LONG SHOT: Sunflower Showdown upset. No. 11 Kansas State is a four-touchdown favorite against in-state rival Kansas. Under coach Bill Snyder, the Wildcats are 10-1 at home against Kansas - the lone loss coming in Snyder's debut season in 1989. Since the inception of the Big 12, K-State has a 14-4 series lead, with the Jayhawks' wins all coming in a five-year span (2004-08). K-State won the last four by an average margin of nearly 37 points.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: While Texas Tech and Kansas (3-8) finish up, Texas and West Virginia will have bowl games after their regular-season finales. ... Big 12 home teams are 19-18 in conference play this season. ... Baylor WR Corey Coleman has averaged 40.3 yards on his 11 career TD catches. He also has the nation's longest active streak with TD catches in seven consecutive games. ... Iowa State, which hosts West Virginia, is coming off its best non-overtime offensive game in six years. The Cyclones had 599 total yards against Texas Tech, but are still looking for their first conference victory this season.

IMPACT PLAYER: West Virginia WR Kevin White is the Big 12 leader with 98 catches for 1,270 yards, and his nine TD catches are tied with Coleman for the league lead. White's 8.9 catches per game and 115 yards per game both rank in the top five among FBS players.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 14

TCU at Texas
The Horned Frogs head to Texas on Friday to face a Longhorns team that is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 November games. Texas is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has TCU favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+7). Here are all of this Thursday and Friday's NCAA Football picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27

Game 311-312: TCU at Texas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 109.488; Texas 106.556
Dunkel Line: TCU by 3; 60
Vegas Line: TCU by 7; 55
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+7); Over

Game 313-314: LSU at Texas A&M (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 100.125; Texas A&M 98.622
Dunkel Line: LSU by 1 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: LSU by 3 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+3 1/2);Over


FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28

Game 315-316: Virginia at Virginia Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 94.556; Virginia Tech 86.332
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 8; 36
Vegas Line: Virginia by 1; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-1); Under

Game 317-318: Ball State at Bowling Green (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 68.880; Bowling Green 76.158
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 10; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+10); Under

Game 319-320: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 79.269; Western Michigan 89.499
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 10; 54
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 7 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-7 1/2); Under

Game 321-322: Buffalo at Massachusetts (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 58.252; Massachusetts 61.752
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 3 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+2)

Game 323-324: Western Kentucky at Marshall (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 71.463; Marshall 102.413
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 31; 70
Vegas Line: Marshall by 23; 74 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-23); Under

Game 325-326: Toledo at Eastern Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 76.872; Eastern Michigan 56.241
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 20 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Toledo by 23; 59
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+23); Under

Game 327-328: Nebraska at Iowa (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 94.404; Iowa 97.329
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 3; 60
Vegas Line: Pick; 56
Dunkel Pick: Iowa; Over

Game 329-330: East Carolina at Tulsa (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 83.937; Tulsa 74.360
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 19 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 17 1/2; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-17 1/2); Under

Game 331-332: Houston at SMU (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 82.126; SMU 63.158
Dunkel Line: Houston by 19; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 22 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+22 1/2); Under

Game 333-334: Navy at South Alabama (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 79.102; South Alabama 76.179
Dunkel Line: Navy by 3; 57
Vegas Line: Navy by 10; 54
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+10); Over

Game 335-336: Arkansas at Missouri (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 112.348; Missouri 104.436
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 8; 66
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-2); N/A

Game 337-338: Stanford at UCLA (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 99.745; UCLA 108.841
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 9; 45
Vegas Line: UCLA by 5; 50
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-5); Under

Game 339-340: Arizona State at Arizona (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 97.207; Arizona 97.162
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 341-342: Colorado State at Air Force (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 95.086; Air Force 84.008
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 11; 63
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 7; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-7); Over

Game 343-344: Central Florida at South Florida (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 88.825; South Florida 78.676
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 10; 47
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 12 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+12 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Thursday's games
LSU scored total of 23 points in last three games, losing last two, in OT to Alabama, 17-0 at Arkansas; Tigers completed less than 50% of passes in five of last six games, but they did beat Texas A&M 34-10/24-19 last two years, running ball for 543 yards in those games. Aggies covered one of last seven games, losing four of last six SU; Aggies are 0-2 at home in SEC this year, allowing 69 points in losses to Ole Miss/Mizzou. Aggies covered four of last five tries as a home underdog. SEC home underdogs are 9-10 this season.

Home side lost last two TCU-Texas games; Horned Frogs won 20-13 in last visit here. TCU allowed 121 points (40.3 ppg) in last three games on road, losing 61-58 at Baylor, beating West Virginia 31-30, Kansas 34-30, so they've been shaky on foreign soil. Texas allowed 12 ppg in winning last three games after 3-5 start; they allowed 16 or less points in five of six wins- they're 1-4 when allowing 20+ points. Over last 10+ years, Texas is 1-6 as a home dog. Big X home underdogs are 13-5 this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, November 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: TCU at Texas
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns (+6.5, 55)

Fifth-ranked TCU and host Texas roll into their Thanksgiving Day meeting on win streaks. While the Longhorns are playing well and already bowl-eligible, the Horned Frogs have bigger goals in their sights. TCU is in striking distance of a College Football Playoff berth and can claim at least a share of its first Big 12 Conference title with two more wins.

"You don't get very many chances to win championships," TCU coach Gary Patterson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram last week. "I know our fan base would love to be in the playoffs, and so would we. But for us, right now, the best way to do that is to win a conference title." Trevone Boykin leads a TCU offense - ranked second nationally in points scored at 45.9 - that is the nation's most improved. Texas has been solid defensively during its three-game win streak, allowing a combined 36 points.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Frogs as 6.5-point road faves. The total has dropped to 55 from the opening 56.5.

INJURY REPORT: TCU - RB B.J. Catalon (Questionable, upper body). Texas - WR Jaxon Shipley (Probable, leg), WR Armanti Foreman (Out, head).

WEATHER FORECAST: Temperatres are expected to be in the mid-50s with wind blowing across the field at 3 mph.

ABOUT TCU (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS, 7-3 O/U): The Horned Frogs' improvement in total yards (plus-196.8) and points (plus-20.8) lead the nation and are on pace to set a Big 12 record while the offense can also set school marks for points, first downs, passing yards and total offense in a single season. Boykin (3,021 passing yards, 24 touchdowns; 548 rushing yards, seven scores) ranks third nationally in total offense. Josh Doctson leads TCU, winner of five straight, with 43 catches for 693 yards and seven TDs and Kolby Listenbee has 33 catches for 606 yards and three scores.

ABOUT TEXAS (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS, 3-8 O/U): Tyrone Swoopes has grown into a solid leader of the Texas offense, completing 58.8 percent of his passes for 2,152 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. Running backs Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray have combined for 1,281 yards and 13 scores while John Harris (59 catches for 976 yards and seven TDs) and Jaxon Shipley (58 catches, 571 yards, one score) lead the receiving corps. The Longhorn defense - led by linebacker Jordan Hicks' 136 tackles - has allowed just 5-of-30 third-down conversions in the past two games.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last five road games.
* Under is 14-3 in Longhorns last 17 games in November.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 65 percent of bettors are backing TCU.

[StarDust Bum]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences

Team to watch: Colorado State Rams (10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS)

This week: -7 at Air Force

Colorado State running back Dee Hart was named Mountain West Player of the Week Monday. And why not? He rushed 20 times for 230 yards and five touchdowns while also catching two passes for 42 yards and another score in a 58-20 blowout of New Mexico. Hart has three consecutive 100-yard performances and found the end zone 11 times (10 on the ground) in those three games.

In last year’s head-to-head meeting at Colorado State, the Rams racked up 629 yards of offense and hammered Air Force 58-13. The Falcons were five minutes away from being shut out for the first time since 1992 before scoring two otherwise meaningless touchdowns.

Colorado State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games. Air Force is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 conference outings and 2-7 ATS in its last nine against opponents with winning records.

Team to beware: Ball State Cardinals (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS)

This week: +9.5 at Bowling Green

Almost every team is banged up at this point of the season, but perhaps no unit has had it worse than Ball State’s defense. Five opening-game starters on the defensive side of the ball have been lost for the season, plus five backups. The Cardinals also suspended lineman Blake Dueitt for a violation of team rules earlier this month.

While the defense has been in flux the entire season, the most important position on the offensive side of the ball has also been a carousel. Ozzie Mann started BSU’s first five games before getting benched. Jack Milas took the reins for the past six contests but went down with a wrist injury against Eastern Washington last week.

Head coach Pete Lembo said earlier this week that Milas is doubtful and he’s preparing to start Mann, who has attempted only seven passes (all last week vs. Eastern Washington) since Oct. 4.

Total team: Old Dominion Monarchs (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 O/U)

This week: 68 at Florida Atlantic

Old Dominion head coach Bobby Wilder said earlier this week that running backs Ray Lawry (sore neck) and Gerard Johnson (sprained ankle) are likely to play against Florida Atlantic Saturday. Both Lawry (734 yards, 15 TDs) and Johnson (493 yards, one TD) left last week’s game vs. Louisiana Tech in the first half. Despite seeing their top two rushers go down, the Monarchs still won 30-27 in overtime.

That was the first time ODU’s defense had held an opponent to fewer than 30 points since Sept. 13. As for Florida Atlantic’s defense, Lawry and Johnson get to face a unit that gives up 224.8 rushing yards per game.

The Over is 7-0 in Old Dominion’s last seven road games and 4-1 in its last five overall. The Over is 4-0 in Florida Atlantic’s last four at home.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet

November 26, 2014


**Stanford at UCLA**

-- As of Wednesday, most betting shops had UCLA (9-2 straight up, 4-7 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 50. Gamblers can take the Cardinal on the money line for a +180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Jim Mora Jr.'s squad has won five in a row and covered the number in three straight after thumping arch-rival Southern Cal 38-20 as a four-point home favorite last weekend. Brett Hundley threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for another score. Paul Perkins ran for 93 yards and one TD.

-- UCLA has compiled a 2-3 spread record as a home favorite this season. The Bruins are 2-4 ATS at home, as they also lost and failed to cover in a home loss to Oregon. On Mora's watch the last three seasons, UCLA is 8-6 ATS in 14 games as a home favorite.

-- For the season, Hundley has completed 72.0 percent of his throws for 2,873 yards with a 20/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The true junior, who will turn pro after his team's bowl game, has rushed for 566 yards and eight TDs.

-- Stanford (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) owns a 2-1-1 spread record in four games as a road underdog during David Shaw's four-year tenure.

-- Stanford will have to face the Bruins without its best WR Ty Montgomery, who is 'out' due to a shoulder injury. Montgomery has a team-best 61 receptions for 604 yards and three touchdowns. Montgomery has produced 1,220 all-purpose yards, in addition to one rushing score and two TDs on special teams.

-- Stanford cruised to a 38-17 win last weekend at California, hooking up its backers as a 5.5-point road favorite. Remound Wright ran for 92 yards and four TDs to lead the way. The Cardinal defense forced five turnovers by the Bears, who gave up a fumble and threw four interceptions between a pair of QBs.

-- The 2014 version of Stanford hasn't measured up to the previous ones under Shaw or in the last year of Jim Harbaugh, who took this program from the abyss to a 12-1 record in 2010. Since then, the Cardinal has won at least 11 games in three consecutive seasons. One of the reasons for this team's demise has been mediocre QB play from Kevin Hogan, who has a 2/3 TD-INT in the team's five defeats.

-- Since 2009, Stanford has won six in a row over UCLA, going 5-1 ATS in the process. When these Pac-12 rivals met last year, the Cardinal captured a 24-10 win as a 4.5-point home 'chalk.' Tyler Gaffney ran for 171 yards and two TDs, while the Stanford defense intercepted Brett Hundley twice.

-- The 'under' is 8-2 overall for Stanford, 4-1 in its five road assignments.

-- The 'under' is 6-4-1 overall for UCLA, 3-1-1 in its home games.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

**Virginia at Virginia Tech**

-- As of Wednesday, most books had Virginia (5-6 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 40.5. This rivalry game will determine which team's season is done and which squad is headed to the postseason.

-- Va. Tech (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) has the nation's longest bowl streak with 21 consecutive postseason appearances. That string of bowl games and a 10-game stranglehold over the Commonwealth Cup is on the line for the Hokies, who have been decimated by injuries and have lost four of their last five games both SU and ATS.

-- Frank Beamer's team dropped a 6-3 decision at Wake Forest in double overtime last weekend, failing to cover the spread as a 13.5-point road favorite. It was the first FBS game to have a scoreless regulation since 2005. The Hokies hadn't lost to the Demon Deacons since 1984.

-- Va. Tech QB Michael Brewer has struggled all season long and the health of his cast hasn't helped his cause. Three RBs have gone down to season-ending injuries, in addition to a slew of offensive linemen. Brewer has a 15/13 TD-INT ratio this year but to his credit, he's only been intercepted twice in the last five games.

-- Mike London's team snapped a four-game losing streak by smashing Miami 30-13 as a 3.5-point home underdog last week. The defense held explosive Miami RB Duke Johnson to a season-low 88 rushing yards. Khalek Shepherd rushed for 95 yards and one TD to lead the way for the Cavs, who are winless with a 2-2 spread record on the road going into Blacksburg on Friday night.

-- Virginia RB Kevin Parks has rushed for a team-best 675 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. He left the win over UM with a concussion, but UVA is hopeful that he'll be ready to play by Friday night. Gamblers should check his status.

-- Assuming this line hold with UVA as the short 'chalk,' we'll note that the Cavs are 1-2 ATS as road favorites during London's five-year tenure.

-- Va. Tech has lost four of its six home games at Lane Stadium this season, limping to a 1-5 spread record in the process.

-- The 'under' has cashed in six straight UVA games to improve to 8-3 overall and 3-1 in its four road assignments. The Cavs have seen their games average 50.5 combined points per game.

-- The 'under' is 7-3 overall for Va. Tech, 3-2 in its home games. The Hokies have seen their games average a combined score of 43.7 PPG.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Syracuse closes at BC anxious to break skid

November 27, 2014

SYRACUSE, N.Y. (AP) - This was not the season Scott Shafer envisioned after leading Syracuse to a bowl game victory last year as a rookie head coach

And no one could have foreseen all the injuries that derailed a promising start and sent the Orange (3-8, 1-6 Atlantic Coast Conference) plummeting in the ACC. The team's injury list reached a dozen players the past few weeks, many of them key performers.

''We've been through a rash of injuries that I've never been around in my 24 years of coaching,'' Shafer said this week as the Orange prepared for the season finale Saturday. ''Just looking at the depth chart, seeing who we're playing, who we're moving around, it's been difficult that way.

''We're starting a quarterback that was third or fourth (on the preseason depth chart). Middle linebacker, third or fourth guys. Wide receiver, the whole (offensive) line, really. Just one of those crazy years.''

After a 2-0 start, Syracuse has lost four straight games and eight of nine to squander a chance to play in a bowl game for the fourth time in five years. The season ends Saturday at Boston College (6-5, 3-4 ACC), which will be headed to the postseason no matter what happens.

Syracuse is coming off a lackluster performance in a 30-7 loss at Pittsburgh, which forced three turnovers, outgained the Orange 445-255, and held the ball for nearly 39 minutes.

Despite a much-needed bye week before the Pitt game, Syracuse generated little momentum behind quarterbacks AJ Long and Mitch Kimble.

Long was recovering from nerve problems in his right shoulder and struggled with his accuracy in his return. The freshman completed 10 of 19 for 149 yards with a pick and added another 30 on the ground. Kimble appeared briefly and surely didn't impress, missing all six of his passes and throwing an interception.

Sending the seniors out with a victory in their last game - yes, Syracuse lost at home on Senior Day - is on Long's mind.

''It means almost the world,'' Long said of winning the finale. ''This group of seniors when I came in took me under their wing. I just really want to win it for them.''

Shafer remains upbeat and focused on doing his best to get that victory heading into the offseason. What's happened is ancient history - nothing that can be changed.

''For me, I don't look at it as we're staggering into the last game,'' Shafer said. ''I look at it as we're fighting with a lot of youth and inexperience into the last game.

''What a great way to introduce a lot of young guys ... to a great rivalry in this conference - and even before we were in this conference together. Extremely motivated to go over there and just give it our best.''

[StarDust Bum]

UCLA must overcome Stanford for Pac-12

November 27, 2014

PASADENA, Calif. (AP) - Just one hurdle remains between No. 9 UCLA and the Pac-12 South title.

Trouble is, Stanford has been an insurmountable obstacle for Brett Hundley, coach Jim Mora and the Bruins (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12).

The Cardinal (6-5, 4-4) have won six straight meetings between the California schools heading into the Cardinal's latest trip to the Rose Bowl on Friday. Hundley and Mora have lost three times to Kevin Hogan and coach David Shaw in the previous two years alone, and they were forced to watch while the Cardinal played on the Bruins' hallowed home turf on the past two New Year's Days.

With a win, UCLA advances to face Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game in Santa Clara, California, next week. With a loss, the Bruins must watch the title game on television while knowing Stanford still has their number.

''If that doesn't motivate you, I don't know,'' Bruins receiver Jordan Payton said. ''What we have at stake, what is in our grasp - everything is there for us as long as we keep winning.''

Hundley realizes the stakes in what's likely to be his home finale after three record-breaking years at UCLA, but he isn't making it personal. His 39th consecutive start is just a chance to keep the Bruins moving toward a shot at the College Football Playoff.

''I've done a lot throughout my career here, and hopefully we can pull out this win on Friday,'' Hundley said. ''That's our goal. You can't worry about what you have done, what you haven't done.''

Stanford clinched bowl eligibility last week, but a rocky regular season means that its new postseason destination won't be nearly as glamorous as the Rose Bowl, where the Cardinal went 1-1 in the past two years. Shaw doesn't believe they should be motivated by the chance to spoil UCLA's season yet again, but their familiarity with Pasadena surely won't hurt.

''The surroundings won't be foreign to us, which is great,'' Shaw said. ''But it's different than the Rose Bowl (game). The fans won't be split. The Wisconsin fans and the Michigan State fans were loud, but they didn't have the whole stadium. We're going to have a really, really small section of the Rose Bowl. It's going to be all UCLA.''

Here are some more things to watch in the schools' 86th meeting:

REAL-TIME RESULTS: We'll be able to watch the Pac-12 South race decided simultaneously on two fields about 485 miles apart Saturday afternoon: Arizona is hosting Arizona State for the Territorial Cup in Tucson at the same time UCLA takes on Stanford. The Bruins, Wildcats and Sun Devils all have 6-2 conference records, but UCLA won its head-to-head matchups with both Arizona schools. If the Bruins lose, the Territorial Cup winner takes the division.

BIG LOSS: Receiver Ty Montgomery, the Cardinal's best skill position player and kick returner, will miss the game with a right shoulder injury. Stanford already has the lowest-scoring offense in the high-octane Pac-12, but Hogan will have several experienced targets in Montgomery's place.

SHUTDOWN D: UCLA's offense has scored at least 30 points in seven of its last eight games, but Stanford has allowed 30 points just once this season. Hundley and the Bruins need a breakthrough after getting held to 51 combined points in three meetings with the Cardinal over the past two years.

BRUINS ROLL: Ever since a one-sided loss to Oregon dropped the Bruins out of the Top 25 in mid-October, they've won five straight in increasingly impressive fashion. Another win would give UCLA its first back-to-back 10-victory seasons since 1997-98.

NO SURPRISES: These teams' familiarity should lead to a high-level game. UCLA has studied Stanford's old-school approach on both sides of the ball. ''Lots of runs, lot of power, and some physicality up front that we haven't seen in the Pac-12 yet,'' said Bruins linebacker Eric Kendricks, one of 12 seniors likely finishing their Rose Bowl careers. ''They do different things than everyone else, but this is my fourth time playing them in three years, so I know what to expect. We're ready.''

[StarDust Bum]

Colorado St. braces for Air Force's option

November 27, 2014

AIR FORCE ACADEMY, Colo. (AP) - Even as Colorado State rolls up wins this season, coach Jim McElwain can't quite forget the game in which he felt like his team quit.

Two years ago at Air Force, the Rams were drubbed 42-21 - and it could've been much, much worse, in McElwain's estimation.

He's harped on that loss with No. 21 Colorado State (10-1, 6-1 Mountain West) returning to Falcon Stadium on Friday and putting its nine-game winning streak on the line against Air Force (8-3, 4-3).

McElwain described that game on Sept. 29, 2012, as ''the worst day ever, whether I was playing or in my coaching career.''

''To see the quit and the disrespect for the game of football and Colorado State University that we showed that day,'' McElwain added. ''We've grown since then. Still, it doesn't deny the taste of walking off that field.''

This version of the Rams is off to their best start since 1994. What's more, they're trying to keep the pressure on Boise State, which leads the Mountain Division.

Colorado State needs to beat Air Force in the regular season finale and hope Utah State wins at Boise State - the Broncos are a nine-point favorite - to sneak into the league's title game.

Won't be easy for Colorado State, though, given that Air Force is 5-0 at home and has trailed for only 12 minutes, 47 seconds of game time.

For the second straight week, the Rams will encounter an option offense. They bottled up New Mexico in a 58-20 win, holding the Lobos' high-powered rushing attack in check most of the game. But they realize it's a different task with Air Force, which averages nearly 275 yards on the ground.

''I told the team after the New Mexico game to tear off the rearview mirror. That one is over,'' McElwain said. ''We've got a short week against a team we have the ultimate respect for.''

And one that embarrassed the Rams the last time they set foot in Falcon Stadium.

''They were staring at the clock in the second half and snapping it at one,'' McElwain said. ''They could have been at 100 (points). That was embarrassing.''

Falcons coach Troy Calhoun maintains they didn't let up, though.

''No, sir. We didn't,'' said Calhoun, whose team is 35-14 at home since he began in 2007. ''Everybody we play, we have the utmost respect for.

''We appreciate the chance to play football and whoever we play, we know on the other side they are going to work hard. That's the way the game should be played.''

Things to consider as Colorado State and Air Force contend for the Ram-Falcon Trophy, an awarded presented annually since 1980:

PASSING MARKS: Already the holder of 13 school records, quarterback Garrett Grayson goes for another at Air Force. The senior needs 11 passing attempts to break the mark held by Kelly Stouffer (1,015 attempts from 1984-86).

IRONMAN TRAINING: Tailback Dee Hart almost looked as if he were training for a triathlon last week. The graduate transfer from Alabama spent time working out in a pool leading up to the New Mexico game. That Saturday, he rode the stationary bike to stay loose in between offensive possessions. And when his number was called, he ran for 230 yards. He also tied a school record with six TDs - five rushing and another on a reception. It was a video game-like performance. ''I'm not keen on video games,'' Hart said. ''I like the field.''

MEETING OF THE MINDS: The other day, McElwain chatted with legendary CSU coach Sonny Lubick. They discussed all things Rams, including the rivalry with Air Force and the team's recent success. Lubick knows plenty about success, since he took the Rams to new heights in his 15-year tenure. ''(Lubick) was good enough to give me insight,'' McElwain said. ''It's invaluable.''

KALE IS GOOD FOR YOU: Don't underestimate senior QB Kale Pearson's arm just because he's running the option. Pearson's thrown for 14 TDs this season, which matches the most by a Falcons QB in the option era. Tim Jefferson also threw for 14 TDs in 2011. Bob Parker holds the all-time school record, throwing 21 TD passes in 1970.

TAILBACK: Leading rusher Jacobi Owens is out for the season with a foot injury. The Falcons are still loaded in the backfield with Devin Rushing, along with fullbacks Shayne Davern and D.J. Johnson. ''Whoever they put in there, we've got to tackle,'' McElwain said.

[StarDust Bum]

SC-Clemson brawl 10 years later

November 27, 2014

CLEMSON, S.C. (AP) - Clemson's Dabo Swinney can't ever forget his final few, horrified on-field moments with South Carolina coach Lou Holtz at Death Valley 10 years ago.

Swinney, the head coach who was then a Tigers assistant, had rushed the field to break up an ugly brawl that erupted near the end of Clemson's 29-7 rivalry win in 2004. When he looked left, Swinney spied Holtz on the ground clinging to a players' leg.

''Oh my,'' Swinney recalled thinking, ''This guy's fixing to get killed. It was total chaos.''

A decade later, the frightening scene still brings chills for those who witnessed it. The schools renew that rivalry on Saturday when South Carolina (6-5) travels to No. 23 Clemson (8-3).

In a state without pro teams, fans' focus has long been on the annual matchup between its two Football Bowl Subdivision powers - and fault line cuts straight through the heart of the Palmetto State.

In 2004, the rivalry was stained forever by the fight.

''It was an embarrassing chapter for both schools,'' Tommy Bowden, the Tigers head coach at the time, said this week.

Bowden said the seeds of a potential problem were all around, even before kickoff.

The famed ''Malice at the Palace'' brawl between the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers took place the night before the football game and dominated sports' highlight shows. Holtz was coaching his final game and the Gamecocks were eager to get a seventh win to better their chances to get to a bowl game to prolong the coach's career. Then the Southeastern Conference officiating crew allowed some Gamecock players to gather at the bottom of the hill for Clemson's traditional entrance. There were some pre-game shoves between the sides.

''With time to reflect, you could see it was a perfect storm that was building,'' Bowden said.

The bad blood finally boiled over with 5:48 to go in the game when Clemson's Bobby Williamson threw down Gamecocks quarterback Syvelle Newton.

Offensive lineman Chris White then pushed Williamson, and players rushed in from both sidelines as mobs of white-shirted Gamecocks and purple-jerseyed Tigers stretched nearly 60 yards along the center of the field. Local and state authorities came on the field to separate players in the five-minute brawl.

Clemson runner Yusef Kelly was photographed kicking a South Carolina player who was on the ground, then throwing a Gamecocks helmet into the stands. South Carolina tailback Daccus Turman punched Clemson's Duane Cole near the end zone as fans shouted and strained near the small fence.

Afterward, Holtz angrily chided his players.

''This is the first time that this has ever happened to me in a football game,'' Holtz said. ''There is no excuse, I take responsibility.''

Both teams declined bowl games as punishment. The SEC suspended six South Carolina players for one game while the Atlantic Coast Conference did the same for six Clemson participants.

''It was a pretty strict punishment,'' Bowden said, calculating that players lost about $2,000 in bowl stipends and gifts. ''But it helped us educate our players.''

Former Tigers defensive end Charles Bennett said he didn't fully understand how wrong the players were until he helped at a Special Olympics event several months later and one of the competitors told him, ''You shouldn't do that'' referring to the fight.

A year later, the teams organized a pre-game handshake where each side walked out from the sidelines in a line that stretched almost the entire field that South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier said put the melee to rest once and for all.

''That was a bad day for our state and I don't think either team has come close to anybody throwing a punch since then,'' said Spurrier, who in 2004 was only days away from starting his tenure as Gamecocks coach when fight occurred.

Bowden, now a college football TV analyst, said he doesn't hear much about the fight since leaving Clemson in the middle of 2008. He believes both sides have used what happened to teach players about what they can lose by letting their emotions and anger surface.

Clemson defensive tackle DeShawn Williams was a 12-year-old Clemson fan from Central, a five-minute drive from campus. Williams watched the fight unfold and couldn't imagine that taking place again.

''I don't want anything like that to happen,'' he said. ''We don't want to lose a bowl game like happened that year. We have respect for them.''

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Friday/Saturday games

Top games of week

Iowa won 38-17 at Nebraska LY, its first win in last five seiries games; Cornhuskers won 13-7/42-7 in last two visits here. Nebraska allowed 87 points in losing last two games after an 8-1 start; they're 3-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread, 2-2 SU on road. Iowa lost three of last five games, losing 26-24 at home to Wisconsin last week. Home teams are 29-26 vs spread in Big 14 games this season.

Arkansas blanked LSU/Ole Miss at home last two weeks; they're bowl eligible now, but are 1-3 on road, with only win 49-28 at Texas Tech in mid-September. Missouri might be quietest 9-2 team in country, taking last five games, three on road, holding four of five opponents under 300 total yards. Both of Mizzou's losses are at home, one was to Indiana, so that could explain lack of hype around them.

Stanford won its last six games with UCLA, five by 8+ points, covering five of six; Cardinal won 35-17/35-0 in last two visits here, but lost three of last four road games, winning rivalry game at Cal six days ago, losing other three by 3-16-29 points. UCLA won last five games, beating USC in its rivalry game Saturday; QB Hundley said he's going to go to NFL next season. Bruins covered last three games after a 1-7 start vs spread.

Underdogs are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten Arizona-ASU games, 6-2 last eight played here. Sun Devils won 41-34/58-21 last two years; they are 5-2 in last seven visits to Tucson. 9-2 Arizona has five wins by seven or less points; they're 5-1 at home, losing to USC; underdogs covered four of their last five at home. ASU allowed 32.3 ppg in its last three games, after giving up 12 ppg in three before that; they're 4-1 SU on road.

10-1 Colorado State won last nine games, scoring 47.5 ppg in last four; Rams lost seven of last eight games with Air Force, losing last five here, four by 21+ points- favorites covered five of last six in series. Air Force lost at San Diego State last week but is 4-0 at home, winning SU as home underdogs vs Boise State/Navy. Mountain West home dogs are just 5-15 vs spread this season. Rams' only loss was 37-24 at Boise Sept. 6th.

Rest of card
-- Virginia Tech won its last ten games with Viginia, which scored total of 27 points in last four series games and covered just two of last seven visits to Blacksburg. Both teams are 5-6; winner is bowl eligible.

-- Bowling Green won its last six games with Ball State, winning three in row here by 41-16 average; Falcons are 0-3 as home favorite this season. Ball State is 3-2 as a road dog this season.

-- Western Michigan won its last six games, covered last nine; they lost last five games with Northern Illinois. four by 14+ points. Huskies won their last five games. Western is 4-0 as a favorite this year.

-- Buffalo won last two games with UMass, 32-3/29-19; not sure how much snow disrupted Bulls' practices last couple weeks. UMass won its last two home games, covered six of last seven overall.

-- Unbeaten Marshall covered five of last seven games; they're 3-1 as a home favorite this year. Western Kentucky won its last three games, scoring 44 ppg; they're 2-3 as an underdog this year.

-- Toledo is 13-1 in last 14 games with Eastern Michigan, winning seven in row (6-1 vs spread), scoring 49 ppg. Favorites are 5-1-1 vs spread in Toledo's last seven visits to Ypsilanti.

-- East Carolina won last four games with Tulsa, scoring 51 ppg in last three and dogs covering three of four; this is Pirates' first visit to Tulsa in five years. ECU covered one of last six games, losing last two on road.

-- Houston won seven of last eight games with SMU; only loss was last visit here, 72-42 two years ago; Mustangs have fallen apart since, losing all 10 games this year, covering one of five at home.

-- Navy (-7.5) beat South Alabama 42-14 at home LY, running ball for 337 yards; Middies scored 45.8 ppg in last four games, are 2-1 in true road games. USA is 0-5 vs spread as an underdog this year.

-- South Florida won four of last five games with Central Florida, losing 23-20 to Knights LY; USF lost three of last four games, with only win 14-13 at winless SMU. UCF won last two games, 31-7/53-7.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, November 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Arizona State at Arizona
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats (-2.5, 62.5)

No. 12 Arizona will host No. 13 Arizona State on Friday in a Territorial Cup battle that could very well determine the Pac-12 South's representative in the conference championship game. The Wildcats have won three consecutive contests and another victory - along with a UCLA loss to Stanford - would see Rich Rodriguez's team punch its ticket to the title tilt against Oregon. However, Arizona has lost two straight and three of the last four meetings in the series.

Arizona State also needs the Bruins to fall to the Cardinal in order to reach the Dec. 5 Pac-12 Championship Game at Levi's Stadium. The Sun Devils have won six out of their last seven games, but their unexpected loss to unranked Oregon State on Nov. 15 took them out of the driver's seat in the division. Arizona State has lit up the scoreboard in its last two meetings with Arizona - scoring 99 combined points - and hopes for more of the same as it looks to advance to its second straight Pac-12 title tilt.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: The lines have not moved from their opening mark of Arizona -2.5 and 62.5.

INJURY REPORT: Arizona State - WR Jaelen Strong (Prob-Concussion), DB Ezekiel Bishop (Ques-Knee), DL Jaxon Hood (Ques-Personal) Arizona - QB Anu Solomon (Ques-Ankle), S Trevor Emisch (Ques-Arm), LB DeAndre Miller (Ques-Shoulder)

WEATHER FORECAST: Clear sunny skies are expected for the game. Temperatures should hit a high of 80°F and winds gusting to five mph.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Taylor Kelly went 15-of-25 for 232 yards and four touchdowns in the 52-31 win over Washington State. D.J. Foster - who is the only active FBS running back to gain 900 rushing yards and over 500 receiving yards this season - ran for three touchdowns versus the Cougars. Jaelen Strong - who leads the team with 71 receptions for 982 yards and nine touchdowns - is expected to return to the lineup after missing the Washington State game with a concussion.

ABOUT ARIZONA (9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS, 3-8 O/U): Freshman quarterback Anu Solomon accounted for 180 yards and a touchdown before sitting out the second half with an ankle injury in the 42-10 win over Utah and his status for Friday's game in uncertain. Nick Wilson was named the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week after rushing for a career-high 218 yards and three touchdowns versus the Utes. Wilson has scored three touchdowns in each of his last two games and became the only freshman in program history to top the 1,000 yard mark (1,085) in a single season.

TRENDS:

*Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Wildcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 6-0 in Sun Devils last 6 games following a ATS win.
*Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 60.62 percent of users are backing Arizona -2.5 with 65.8 percent taking the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, November 28


Western Michigan still top play against spread

There has been no better spread team in college football this season than Western Kentucky. The Broncos are a stellar 10-1 ATS this season, with their one failure to cover coming in the first game.

In those 10 consecutive covers, the Broncos have beaten the spread by an average of 12.1 points per game. Those games saw Western Michigan favored four times, dogs five times and one game closed as a pick'em.

WMU are 7.5-point home faves against Northern Illinois Friday.


Poor defense has made Tulsa top over play

It may come as a surprise that Tulsa is leading the nation in anything, but they are currently tied for the most overs in the nation. The Golden Hurricane have a 9-2 over/under mark, thanks in large part to a horrible defense.

Tulsa is giving up 484.6 yards per game, while opposing teams are averaging 38.4 points per game.

The Golden Hurricanes host East Carolina with a current total of 66.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet

November 26, 2014


**Stanford at UCLA**

-- As of Wednesday, most betting shops had UCLA (9-2 straight up, 4-7 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 50. Gamblers can take the Cardinal on the money line for a +180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Jim Mora Jr.'s squad has won five in a row and covered the number in three straight after thumping arch-rival Southern Cal 38-20 as a four-point home favorite last weekend. Brett Hundley threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for another score. Paul Perkins ran for 93 yards and one TD.

-- UCLA has compiled a 2-3 spread record as a home favorite this season. The Bruins are 2-4 ATS at home, as they also lost and failed to cover in a home loss to Oregon. On Mora's watch the last three seasons, UCLA is 8-6 ATS in 14 games as a home favorite.

-- For the season, Hundley has completed 72.0 percent of his throws for 2,873 yards with a 20/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The true junior, who will turn pro after his team's bowl game, has rushed for 566 yards and eight TDs.

-- Stanford (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) owns a 2-1-1 spread record in four games as a road underdog during David Shaw's four-year tenure.

-- Stanford will have to face the Bruins without its best WR Ty Montgomery, who is 'out' due to a shoulder injury. Montgomery has a team-best 61 receptions for 604 yards and three touchdowns. Montgomery has produced 1,220 all-purpose yards, in addition to one rushing score and two TDs on special teams.

-- Stanford cruised to a 38-17 win last weekend at California, hooking up its backers as a 5.5-point road favorite. Remound Wright ran for 92 yards and four TDs to lead the way. The Cardinal defense forced five turnovers by the Bears, who gave up a fumble and threw four interceptions between a pair of QBs.

-- The 2014 version of Stanford hasn't measured up to the previous ones under Shaw or in the last year of Jim Harbaugh, who took this program from the abyss to a 12-1 record in 2010. Since then, the Cardinal has won at least 11 games in three consecutive seasons. One of the reasons for this team's demise has been mediocre QB play from Kevin Hogan, who has a 2/3 TD-INT in the team's five defeats.

-- Since 2009, Stanford has won six in a row over UCLA, going 5-1 ATS in the process. When these Pac-12 rivals met last year, the Cardinal captured a 24-10 win as a 4.5-point home 'chalk.' Tyler Gaffney ran for 171 yards and two TDs, while the Stanford defense intercepted Brett Hundley twice.

-- The 'under' is 8-2 overall for Stanford, 4-1 in its five road assignments.

-- The 'under' is 6-4-1 overall for UCLA, 3-1-1 in its home games.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

**Virginia at Virginia Tech**

-- As of Wednesday, most books had Virginia (5-6 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 40.5. This rivalry game will determine which team's season is done and which squad is headed to the postseason.

-- Va. Tech (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) has the nation's longest bowl streak with 21 consecutive postseason appearances. That string of bowl games and a 10-game stranglehold over the Commonwealth Cup is on the line for the Hokies, who have been decimated by injuries and have lost four of their last five games both SU and ATS.

-- Frank Beamer's team dropped a 6-3 decision at Wake Forest in double overtime last weekend, failing to cover the spread as a 13.5-point road favorite. It was the first FBS game to have a scoreless regulation since 2005. The Hokies hadn't lost to the Demon Deacons since 1984.

-- Va. Tech QB Michael Brewer has struggled all season long and the health of his cast hasn't helped his cause. Three RBs have gone down to season-ending injuries, in addition to a slew of offensive linemen. Brewer has a 15/13 TD-INT ratio this year but to his credit, he's only been intercepted twice in the last five games.

-- Mike London's team snapped a four-game losing streak by smashing Miami 30-13 as a 3.5-point home underdog last week. The defense held explosive Miami RB Duke Johnson to a season-low 88 rushing yards. Khalek Shepherd rushed for 95 yards and one TD to lead the way for the Cavs, who are winless with a 2-2 spread record on the road going into Blacksburg on Friday night.

-- Virginia RB Kevin Parks has rushed for a team-best 675 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. He left the win over UM with a concussion, but UVA is hopeful that he'll be ready to play by Friday night. Gamblers should check his status.

-- Assuming this line hold with UVA as the short 'chalk,' we'll note that the Cavs are 1-2 ATS as road favorites during London's five-year tenure.

-- Va. Tech has lost four of its six home games at Lane Stadium this season, limping to a 1-5 spread record in the process.

-- The 'under' has cashed in six straight UVA games to improve to 8-3 overall and 3-1 in its four road assignments. The Cavs have seen their games average 50.5 combined points per game.

-- The 'under' is 7-3 overall for Va. Tech, 3-2 in its home games. The Hokies have seen their games average a combined score of 43.7 PPG.

[StarDust Bum]

By Dave Cokin

Here’s this week’s Wise Guy Report for the colleges. This will be the final report for season, as it’s the last full card of the year. Info gathered from various sources within Nevada, as well as underground shops stateside plus offshore outlets. Comments are not mine, and these are not necessarily plays I’ll be on. Hope this report has been enjoyable and helpful!

316 Virginia Tech has gotten some fairly steady sharp money since the opener on Sunday night. The Hokies are at home in a rivalry battle with Virginia.

Heavy wise guy action on 320 Western Michigan, and the Broncos went through key numbers in a hurry as they prep for a showdown with Northern illinois.

327 Nebraska is drawing a bit of pro dough. But a couple of my sources believe that Iowa money will show between now and Friday.

There has been some wise guy support for 349 Old Dominion as road dogs at Florida Atlantic. It’s not heavy, but steady according to what I was told.

Sharps have been trying to beat 352 Duke for much of the season, and succeeded the last two weeks. But it’s an about face this week, with the Blue Devils finally attracting some professional action as they host Wake Forest.

The smarts are backing 363 North Carolina State in the Wolfpack’s rivalry clash with North Carolina.

Nothing much showed early, but wise guy dollars started to trickle in on 367 Purdue on Tuesday. The Boilermakers are small road dogs at Indiana.

383 Utah State is attracting some support from the sharps as a good sized dog against Boise State.

The sharps lost with 387 Washington State last week, but the Cougars are again drawing some action for the Apple Cup game with Washington. But not nearly the avalanche of dollars that showed last week.

403 Florida is a very popular play. The sharps hit the opening number decisively and the steam chasers are out in force as the Florida State fade machine rolls on.

Another rivalry dog getting some smart money action is 417 Kentucky as the Wildcats visit Louisville on Saturday.

Last but not least, 424 Troy is getting wise guy play as a home dog against UL Lafayette.