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SBPI Rankings - Week 13

November 18, 2014


Listed below are my Top 25 Rankings through Saturday, Nov. 15.

The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team checks in statistically in each for Offense, Defense and Total.

I also include the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, ESPN’s Football Power Index & Jeff Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) adjusted RATING and RANK:

TOP 25 RATINGS
Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule
Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank
Alabama 8 4 3 2 2 1 1 314.9 1
Michigan State 1 4 1 10 9 12 11 287.5 2
Georgia 5 29 6 9 10 3 3 274.9 3
Baylor 2 7 2 6 6 5 4 273.2 4
Mississippi 23 8 6 8 8 4 2 272.4 5
Ohio State 3 13 4 7 7 8 10 270.7 6
Auburn 7 56 17 16 17 6 6 265.7 7
TCU 8 23 6 5 5 11 7 255.7 8
Miami, Fl. 27 17 11 - - 22 28 250.5 9
Mississippi State 14 32 12 4 4 10 8 240.8 10
West Virginia 34 35 26 - - - 29 237.4 11
LSU 66 19 31 - - 16 14 234.9 12
USC 12 43 18 24 24 15 18 234.6 13
Louisville 64 1 9 - - - 32 233.1 14
Arkansas 22 64 33 - - 17 23 231.3 15
Wisconsin 51 3 10 14 15 14 12 228.6 16
Clemson 68 6 19 - - - 25 226.5 17
Stanford 78 8 28 - - 20 31 221 18
Oregon 4 85 30 3 3 2 5 220.7 19
UCLA 18 72 40 11 12 13 16 220.4 20
Kansas State 29 44 28 12 11 18 13 217 21
Oklahoma 37 56 43 23 22 9 9 216.9 22
Florida 86 14 44 - - 23 21 216.5 23
Boise State 18 32 14 - - - 38 215.7 24
Missouri 72 16 37 19 20 - 22 211.4 25

New breakdown we will add each week is showing where each Top 25 team ranked in the week’s prior SBPI:

RATINGS COMPARISON
Team Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
Alabama 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
Michigan State 5 6 3 3 3 2 2
Georgia 19 4 6 6 7 6 3
Baylor 3 3 5 4 6 5 4
Mississippi 6 5 4 5 4 3 5
Ohio State 12 13 10 7 5 8 6
Auburn 1 1 2 2 2 4 7
TCU 7 12 7 10 9 7 8
Miami, Fl. 36 25 20 16 14 10 9
Mississippi State 9 7 9 8 10 14 10
West Virginia 13 18 15 14 13 11 11
LSU 17 10 13 12 8 9 12
USC 11 9 12 11 15 12 13
Louisville 18 17 18 21 20 15 14
Arkansas 27 20 22 23 24 25 15
Wisconsin 28 33 33 24 23 18 16
Clemson 4 8 11 9 11 13 17
Stanford 16 15 19 18 22 19 18
Oregon 30 34 26 27 25 21 19
UCLA 29 29 27 31 27 22 20
Kansas State 24 26 21 22 17 23 21
Oklahoma 10 19 16 17 12 17 22
Florida 31 31 30 29 26 24 23
Boise State 33 35 28 19 19 20 24
Missouri 21 44 40 34 31 30 25

Here are an additional few teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25:

#27 Nebraska
#29 Arizona State
#32 Georgia Tech
#34 Marshall
#46 Duke
#47 Colorado State
#49 Utah
#56 Florida State
#59 Arizona

Conference Breakdown

AAC: 0
ACC: 3
Big 10: 3
Big 12: 5
CUSA: 0
IND: 0
MAC: 0
MWC: 1
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 9
SUN: 0

Strength of each conference taking average ranking of ALL TEAMS:

SEC: 29.00
Pac-12: 42.92
Big 12: 47.00
ACC: 49.00
Big 10: 56.29
IND: 71.00
MWC: 77.50
CUSA: 83.31
AAC: 84.09
SUN: 89.64
MAC: 91.00

Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams.

TOP 10 NON-POWER 5
Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule
Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank
Boise State 18 32 14 - - - 38 215.7 24
Memphis 51 10 14 - - - 42 206.2 30
Marshall 5 17 5 18 18 21 33 201 34
Utah State 56 12 19 - - - 52 199.3 36
East Carolina 23 42 23 - - - 58 193.9 38
Louisiana Tech 56 21 27 - - - 51 189.9 39
Western Michigan 10 44 12 - - - 78 187.4 41
Air Force 14 40 16 - - - 81 186.8 42
BYU 47 49 48 - - - 46 184 44
Central Michigan 44 25 23 - - - 88 182 45

Lastly here are the Bottom 5 teams according to College Football SBPI:

BOTTOM 5 TEAMS
Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule
Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank
Southern Mississippi 115 113 124 - - - 114 77.2 124
Kent State 123 111 125 - - - 122 63.3 125
UNLV 119 120 126 - - - 121 60.5 126
Eastern Michigan 125 126 127 - - - 128 42.8 127
SMU 127 128 128 - - - 126 38.1 128

For each of comparison remember I have adjusted “SAG” ranks to just show FBS/1A teams – that gives a better feel for where he ranks the FCS teams compared to the College Football SBPI.

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Alabama rolls to No. 1 in playoff rankings

November 18, 2014

Alabama is the new No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and Mississippi State remains in the top four after losing to the Crimson Tide.

Alabama jumped from fifth to first after handing previously undefeated and top-ranked Mississippi State its first loss on Saturday. Oregon was bumped down to second and unbeaten Florida State is now third. The Seminoles are the only undefeated team left in a Big Five conference.

TCU slipped to No. 5 while Ohio State moved up to No. 6, ahead of TCU's Big 12 rival Baylor and Mississippi.

UCLA and Georgia rounded out the top 10.

Selection committee chairman Jeff Long said Alabama controlled the game in its 25-20 victory against Mississippi State enough to earn the big promotion this week.

Alabama led by two scores in the fourth quarter and Mississippi State cut the lead to five with a touchdown with 15 seconds left.

Long referred to game control a few times this week. It's not a metric used by the committee but a subjective discussion about how the game was played.

TCU rallied for a 34-30 victory against Kansas, and Long noted how the Horned Frogs' inability to control the game against struggling team negatively affected their resume.

Long also said a second straight road victory for Ohio State, this one against Minnesota after beating Michigan State the week before, helped the Buckeyes move up two spots. Still, an early season home loss to Virginia Tech is still a mark against Ohio State.

''While they have certainly added to their resume and shown they are a better team, it doesn't erase that loss,'' Long said of the Buckeyes.

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Wednesday's games
Horrendous weather in Buffalo area, cars are stranded on highways there. Home team lost last five series games; underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six. Flashes won four of last five visits here, winning 23-7/24-21 in last two. Kent is 1-9 but covered three of last four games, losing last two both 30-20 as 13-point dogs. Bulls snapped 4-game skid with 55-14 win over Akron last week; Buffalo os 2-1 at home in MAC, winning by 8-31.

Favorites covered six of last eight Bowling Green-Toledo games. Toledo won its last four series games, running for 242+ yards in three of four; Falcons lost seven of last eight visits to Toledo, with favorites covering six of last seven series games played there. BG won five of last six games winning last three road games by 5-18-17 points- they held last four foes to 17.3 ppg, after first six scored 42.2 ppg. Toledo is 1-7 vs spread in its last eight games; they're 0-5 as a favorite this season.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 13

Kent State at Buffalo
The Golden Flashes (1-9 SU) travel to Buffalo tonight to face a Bulls team that is 9-2 ATS it its last 11 games versus teams with a losing SU ecord. Buffalo is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-7). Here are all of tonight's NCAA Football picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19

Game 105-106: Kent State at Buffalo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 65.115; Buffalo 75.496
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 10 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-7); Over

Game 107-108: Bowling Green at Toledo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 76.163; Toledo 81.521
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 5 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Toledo by 6 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+6 1/2); Over

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 13

Kansas State at West Virginia
The Wildcats head to West Virginia tonight following a 41-20 loss at TCU and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Kansas State is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+2 1/2). Here are all of tonight's NCAA Football picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20

Game 111-112: Kansas State at West Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 105.131; West Virginia 100.859
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 4 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 2 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+2 1/2); Under

Game 113-114: North Carolina at Duke (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 80.214; Duke 89.656
Dunkel Line: Duke by 9 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Duke by 6; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6); Under

Game 115-116: Arkansas State at Texas State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 75.462; Texas State 72.645
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 3; 51
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 6 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (+6 1/2); Under

OTHER GAMES:

SE Louisiana at Nicholls State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Louisiana 73.701; Nicholls State 29.559
Dunkel Line: SE Louisiana by 44


FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Game 117-118: UTEP at Rice (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 75.027; Rice 86.897
Dunkel Line: Rice by 12; 62
Vegas Line: Rice by 7 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (-7 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Air Force at San Diego State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 80.761; San Diego State 87.748
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 7; 55
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-4 1/2); Over

Game 121-122: San Jose State at Utah State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 80.701; Utah State 90.638
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 10; 52
Vegas Line: Utah State by 13; 46
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+13); Over

OTHER GAMES:

Eastern Washington at Portland State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 76.608; Portland State 61.096
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 15 1/2

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Thursday's games
Kansas State whacked West Virginia 35-12/55-14 the last two years, as Wildcats outgained WVU by 168.5 yards/game. K-State beat Oklahoma, Iowa State on road by combined total of 5 points, lost 41-20 at TCU in last game. Snyder is now 13-2 in his last 15 games as a road dog. WVU lost last two games, allowing 31-33 points; they're 1-3 as favorite this year, 2-2 SU at home vs D-I teams, losing to Oklahoma/TCU, beating Kansas/Baylor. Better than average Thursday game.

Duke upset North Carolina 27-25/33-30 last two years, after losing 14 of previous 15 series games; last time Blue Devils were series favorite was 2002. Tar Heels won seven of last eight visits to Durham, with dogs 4-2 vs spread in their last six. Duke had won four games in row before 17-16 home loss to Va Tech last game; Blue Devils were held to 10-16 points in their two losses. Carolina won three of last four games after 2-4 start, despite allowing 38 ppg in those games.

Arkansas State lost first two road games at Miami/Tennessee, couple of cash-grab games; they scored 40+ points in last three road games, taking two of them. ASU (-7) beat Texas State 38-21 LY, running ball for 328 yards. Texas State covered last four games but lost last two by combined total of seven points; Bobcats ran ball for 200+ points in last four wins, less than 200 in last four losses. TSU covered its last five games as a dog.

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NCAAF

Thursday, November 20

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Game of the Day: Kansas State at West Virginia
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Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5, 58)

Kansas State tries to bounce back from a devastating loss at TCU when it visits West Virginia on Thursday night, but the oddsmakers do not see it happening as the unranked Mountaineers are favored to defeat the No. 11 Wildcats. Kansas State was in the national championship picture before dropping a 41-20 decision to the Horned Frogs on Nov. 8, but still has an outside shot to win the Big 12 title with wins in its final three games and some help. The Wildcats are tied with No. 6 Baylor - one-half game behind No. 5 TCU - with a showdown looming with the Bears in Waco, Texas, on Dec. 6 to finish the regular season.

West Virginia has dropped two straight, including a 31-30 decision to TCU on Nov. 1 before falling at Texas 33-16 on Nov. 8. While the Mountaineers are not involved in the Big 12 race, they will be tough to beat on Senior Night. "We still have things to fight for like a good bowl game,'' junior safety K.J. Dillon said in Monday's press conference. "No one is down, everyone still wants to win for the seniors this Thursday and wants to win and finish out a good season."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: West Virginia opened as 1.5-point home favorites and have been bet up a point to sit at -2.5. The total has remained at the opening number of 58.

INJURY REPORT: N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be a chilly night in West Virginia with temperatures in the mid 20's for the game. There will also be a 20 percent chance of snow flurries to go along with an 11 mile per hour wind blowing across the field from west to east.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (7-2, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U): The Wildcats have two of the top receivers in the Big 12 in Tyler Lockett (60 receptions, 14.6 yards per catch, six touchdowns) and Curry Sexton (53, 13.6, four), but might be better off trying to run. Quarterback Jake Waters (63.6 completion rate, 13 TDs, four interceptions) has rushed for 406 yards and seven TDs, second in both departments to Charles Jones (430, 11), and they'll go against a defense that yields an average of 181.5 rushing yards - eighth in the 10-team Big 12. Kansas State won its first two road games versus Iowa State and Oklahoma by a combined five points.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (6-4, 6-4 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Quarterback Clint Trickett is putting together a solid season with a 68.3 completion rate and 18 touchdowns against eight interceptions. His favorite target is wide receiver Kevin White, who has 91 catches (second in the nation) for 1,207 yards (third) and eight TDs. The Mountaineers can also get it done on the ground with Wendell Smallwood (585 yards, two TDs), Rushel Shell (560, six) and Dreamius Smith (411, five).

TRENDS:

* Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.
* West Virginia is 0-7 in its last seven games following a bye week.
* Over is 5-0 in Kansas State's last five road games versus a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 6-0 in West Virginia's last six games overall.

CONSENSUS: The consensus is fairly split with just 52 percent of wagers backing West Virginia at -2.5.

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NCAAF

Thursday, November 20


Chilly conditions at Mountaineer Field Thursday

The Kansas State Wildcats travel to West Virginia to face the Mountaineers and weather looks like it won't be the most favorable Thursday.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-20s and wind blowing from sideline to sideline at around 10 mph in Morgantown, West Virginia.

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Bettors beware the week before college football's biggest rivalries

Next week is Rivalry Week in college football, which makes Week 13 “Lookahead Week” for NCAAF bettors. Many programs could get caught looking past this week’s matchup and to their yearly grudge match.

We look at some of the more heated rivalries in college football and how those teams perform the week before butting heads over the past 10 seasons.

Rivalry: Oregon vs. Oregon State (Civil War)

How does Oregon perform the week before?

4-6 SU, 1-9 ATS, 7-3 O/U

How does Oregon State perform the week before?

7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 4-6 O/U

What does this mean?

Injuries to the Oregon offensive line have held back most books from opening this game. It also doesn’t help Ducks backers that Oregon is 0-5 ATS over the last five years and 1-9 ATS in the last 10 years the week before the Civil War. Oregon State tends to play well the week before the Oregon game and is currently a 6.5-point dog against Washington.


Rivalry: Michigan vs. Ohio State (The Game)

How does Michigan perform the week before?

5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 7-3 O/U

How does Ohio State perform the week before?

7-3 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U

What does this mean?

Both of these teams, especially Ohio State seem a little guilty of looking ahead. Ohio State is a 34.5-point favorite against Indiana and, while the Hoosiers haven't played well of late, it takes a lot to paste a conference foe by that many points. Michigan is a 5-point favorite against Maryland.


Rivalry: Alabama vs. Auburn (Iron Bowl)

During the last 10 years, Auburn had five byes in weeks heading up to the Iron Bowl with Alabama enjoying one in 2009 and both teams had one game that had no total on the board.

How does Alabama perform the week before?

5-4 SU, 2-5-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U

How does Auburn perform the week before?

4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U

What does this mean?

As good as these two teams have been recently, these trends don't reflect their success. With both teams scheduling down this week, Alabama faces Western Carolina and Auburn faces Samford, put a check mark in the win column. As for the spread, some places will book these FCS punching bags with massive lines.


Rivalry: Arizona vs. Arizona State (Duel in the Desert)

How does Arizona perform the week before?

4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U

How does Arizona State perform the week before?

5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U

What does this mean?

The trends definitely aren't telling us anything about this Pac-12 bad blood. But, if you look at an eight-year window, instead of a 10, Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last eight before facing ASU. Arizona is a 4-point dog at Utah – tough to look past the Utes - and Arizona State is a 16-point favorite against Washington State.


Rivalry: Notre Dame vs. USC

This rivalry is a little strange to look at because both teams have had byes in weeks leading up the games. Notre Dame had a bye in 2004, 2005, 2009, 2011 and 2013. Southern Cal had a bye in 2004, 2008 and 2009. And what makes it even more difficult is USC is playing rival UCLA this week.

How does Notre Dame perform the week before?

3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 0-4-1 O/U

How does USC perform the week before?

5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U

What does this mean?

Notre Dame is a 3.5-point favorite versus Louisville this week but has lost three of its last four, including three straight blown covers. Quarteback Everett Golson is nursing a sore shoulder and the Irish are without defensive line leader Sheldon Day, to go along with other missing cogs on the stop unit. As mentioned above, the Trojans won’t risk looking past rival UCLA this weekend. Southern Cal has failed to cover in four of its last five meetings with the Bruins.


Rivalry: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss (Egg Bowl)

How does Mississippi State perform the week before?

3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U

How does Ole Miss perform the week before?

2-8 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U

What does this mean?

These trends are muddled a bit by the fact that both of these schools are playing at a higher level this season then they have in the past. Ole Miss is a 3.5-point favorite at Arkansas while Mississippi State gives 29 points to Vanderbilt at home Saturday.


Rivalry: Kansas vs. Kansas State

Kansas had three byes prior to the Kansas State game in 2006, 2010 and 2012. Kansas State had a bye in 2012.

How does Kansas perform the week before?

1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-6 O/U

How does Kansas State perform the week before?

3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, 9-0 O/U

What does this mean?

Kansas finds itself in a dreaded sandwich spot, coming off a strong effort versus TCU last week. A letdown could be in store for the Jayhawks, even with them getting 25 points in Norman Saturday. The Wildcats don’t have the same healthy respect for its yearly rival as other programs might have – and can you blame them. Kansas State won’t be looking past West Virginia as a 2.5-point road underdog Thursday.

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Big Ten Report - Week 13

November 19, 2014


GAME OF THE WEEK

Wisconsin (-9.5) @ Iowa – 3:30 PM EST

The Badgers – along with the Buckeyes – are playing their best football right now. There’s not much left to say about the performance of Melvin Gordon last week. He rushed for an FBS-record 408 yards along with 4 TD in just three quarters of work in Wisconsin’s blowout win over Nebraska. He absolutely couldn’t be stopped it will go down as one of the most memorable performances in Badgers history. Gordon got most of the publicity, but it’s hard to overlook the impact that the defense has had for Wisconsin this season. They held the Huskers to just 180 total yards and 11 first downs and currently rank as the top overall defense in YPG allowed, 3rd against the pass, 5th against the rush, and 3rd in scoring defense. With the Badgers’ blend of unstoppable rushing attack and stingy defense, they’re a serious threat to come out atop the B1G West and present a major challenge to OSU in the B1G Championship. Before that happens, however, Wisconsin will have to take care of business in a tricky road game at Iowa this Saturday.

Iowa returns home after back-to-back roadies, the latest of which was a 30-14 win at Illinois. It was a dominant performance all around as the Hawkeyes notched 587 total yards and 26 first downs while holding Illinois to just 235 total yards and 12 first downs. It was encouraging for Iowa that QB’s Rudock and Beathard combined to complete 17-of-24 passes for 283 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT while the rushing attack notched 304 yards on 55 carries (5.5 YPC). It’s concerning for Iowa that a team they played two weeks ago (Minnesota) has a very similar approach as Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes were completely dominated by the Gophers. Minnesota wracked up 291 rush yards and 51 points in the 37-point blowout over Iowa. The Hawks will have their hands full, but with a win over Wisconsin, Iowa still has a shot at the B1G Championship game. Wisconsin has won and covered two straight over the Hawkeyes. Last year the Badgers went into Iowa City as a 9-point favorite and won 28-9. Iowa really struggled against Wisconsin’s hybrid defense while the Badgers offense churned out 218 rush yards. The Badgers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Iowa is just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games but 5-2 ATS in the last 7 conference games. Wisconsin has covered four straight conference games.

THE REST

Nebraska (-11) vs. Minnesota – 12:00 PM EST

Nebraska jumped out to a 17-3 lead over Wisconsin thanks to two Badger fumbles that gave the Huskers a short field to work with. It all went downhill after that as Wisconsin scored the games next 56 points. Nebraska was punch-less on offense, gaining just 180 total yards and achieving just 11 first downs. QB Armstrong was terrible, completing just 6-of-18 passes for 62 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT while the rushing attack notched just 118 yards on 2.6 YPC. Granted they were playing against the top defense in the nation statistically, but to be completely hapless was without a doubt concerning for Bo Pelini’s crew. Defensively it was ugly. The Huskers couldn’t stop Badgers RB Gordon, who set a new FBS-record with 408 rush yards on just 25 carries. It was an uninspiring performance in an important game for Nebraska’s chances, but the Huskers can’t take time to sulk as they now have an important home date with Minnesota this Saturday.

Minnesota put up a solid fight at home in the cold and snow against Ohio State last week, but ultimately came up short in the seven-point defeat. David Cobb rushed for 145 yards and three touchdowns and he’s likely salivating at the thought of facing this Nebraska run-defense that was absolutely torched last week. They’ll have to get better play from the QB position as Leidner was overmatched against OSU’s defense as he completed just 7-of-19 for 85 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. Defensively they allowed OSU QB J.T. Barrett to have a huge day (389 total yards, 4 total TD), but he’s on another level compared to what they’ll see in Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong this Saturday. If Minnesota’s 55th ranked rush-defense can slow Nebraska RB Abdullah – who is slowed by an injured knee – like the Badgers did last weekend, the Gophers will have a solid chance to win this conference roadie and stay in contention for a B1G West title. Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 conference games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against a team with a winning record. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss. Nebraska has won two of three meetings since becoming a member of the B1G, but Minnesota won last year’s meeting, 34-23, as a 10.5-point underdog. Minnesota, led by RB Cobb, rushed for 271 yards on 5.0 YPC in that win.

Ohio State (-34.5) vs. Indiana – 12:00 PM EST

Ohio State has just two more home games to take care of before its assumed berth in the B1G Championship game. It would be shocking to see the Buckeyes fall at home to either the Hooisers this weekend or Michigan next weekend. OSU had a little trouble at Minnesota last weekend in a relatively flat performance for the Buckeyes. Granted they were off of a huge road win over Michigan State and traveling for the second consecutive week, so it wasn’t a huge surprise to see the Gophers stick around. The 31-24 win wasn’t enough to impress the Playoff committee as OSU is still on the outside looking in at the top four teams, so OSU needs to continue to dominate if it wants to ascend into the CFB Playoff field. Freshman QB Barrett continues to grow and appears to be getting better and better by the week. He tossed for 200 yards and 3 TD and added 189 rush yards and 1 TD against Minnesota last week and now has an astonishing 38 total TD on the season. Barrett will get a shot to add to his gaudy stats against this Indiana defense that ranks 104th against the pass and 81st against the rush.

The Hoosiers have now dropped five straight games and are officially not bowl eligible after last week’s loss to Rutgers. Nothing has gone right for the Hoosiers since QB Sudfeld went down with an injury. In a little over four games since Sudfeld’s injury, Indiana QB’s have combined to complete 41-of-97 passes (42%) for 313 yards with 1 TD and 5 INT. They won’t find many passing lanes yet again this week against an OSU pass-defense that allows just 189.4 pass YPG with 11 pass TD allowed and 16 INT. The one constant for Indiana this season has been the rushing of RB Coleman. Coleman rushed for a career-best 307 yards in the defeat to Rutgers last week and averages 167.8 rush YPG with 12 rush TD on the season. Look for Indiana to try to implement as much rushing into their gameplan against this OSU rush-defense that surrendered 218 rush yards on 5.0 YPC against the Gophers last week. If Coleman can churn out the yards this Saturday, Indiana will be able to control the game clock and potentially cover the 30+ point spread. Ohio State has won 69 out of 86 meetings with Indiana, including 10 straight by an average of 24.4 PPG. Indiana has covered three straight in the series, including last year as a 33.5-point underdog. The Hoosiers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Michigan State (-22) vs. Rutgers – 12:00 PM EST

It was a bit of an early hangover for the Spartans against Maryland last week after their home loss to Ohio State the week prior. Sparty settled for three early field goals against Maryland and led just 16-7 at halftime before waking up in the 3rd quarter. RB Langford led the way with 138 yards and 2 scores in a game where QB Cook wasn’t sharp (14-of-31 passing). Defensively the Spartans dominated. They held the Terps to just 6 rush yards on 17 carries, forced four turnovers, and limited Maryland to just 2-of-14 on 3rd down. Winning the East is a near impossibility at this point, but the Spartans can finish strong with wins over Rutgers and Penn State to close the season. Rutgers ended its three-game losing streak and became bowl-eligible in the process with a win over Indiana last week. It didn’t come easy as Indiana held a 16-10 lead in the 3rd quarter before Rutgers scored 35 of the final 42 points down the stretch to earn the 45-23 win. The Scarlet Knights were outgained, had fewer first downs, and allowed 307 rush yards to IU’s Tevin Coleman; but were able to take advantage of three Indiana turnovers, mitigating the impact of the Hoosiers high-yardage total. Rutgers QB Nova had a much-needed good performance (16-of-27 with 2 TD and 0 INT) after a horrendous showing against Wisconsin in the prior game. Nova and this Rutgers offense will get another tough test against this MSU defense that ranks 9th in yards per game allowed and 8th in rushing yards per game allowed. These two haven’t met since 2004 and this will be their first meeting as B1G foes. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year. Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 home games and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 conference games.

Michigan (-5) vs. Maryland – 3:30 PM EST

The Wolverines had a week off to prepare after notching their first two-game winning streak in more than a year. A visit from Maryland this week represents a solid opportunity for Michigan to become bowl-eligible before traveling to Columbus for their final game of the season. It wasn’t pretty the last time Michigan saw the field, but it was a win nonetheless. The Wolverines notched just 256 total yards, 13 first downs, and 10 points in their 10-9 win over Northwestern. QB Gardner was ineffective as he completed just 11-of-24 passes while tossing two more interceptions – giving him 13 on the season. The defense held late and stopped Northwestern’s two-point attempt to win the game. Overall Michigan held Northwestern to just 264 total yards, including -9 rush yards on 35 attempts. Michigan’s 8th ranked defense will present a huge challenge against this Maryland offense that has grown stagnant over the past three games. This Terps offense that averaged 402.3 total YPG and 35.1 PPG through their first seven games has averaged just 207 total YPG and 14 PPG. QB Brown has completed just 46.3% of his passes with 4 TD and 3 INT over that span and the rushing offense has been non-existent. Last week against Michigan State the Terps totaled six yards on 17 carries. Granted all of this offensive ineptitude has come against three of the top defenses in the B1G (Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State), but it doesn’t bode well for the Terps that they play another top defensive unit again this Saturday. Maryland is already bowl-eligible, but can move into the postseason with a bit of momentum if it can notch a win at the Big House this Saturday and finish with a win at home over Maryland next week. These two haven’t met since 1990 and this will be the first meeting as B1G East division foes. The Terps are just 1-8 ATS following a bye week but are 5-0 ATS following a SU loss. Michigan is just 0-4 ATS following a SU win and just 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Penn State (-6.5) @ Illinois – 12:00 PM EST

It has been a while since the words “Penn State” and “bowl-eligible” have been said in the same sentence – at least with a positive connotation – but that’s exactly what the Nittany Lions are after last week’s 30-13 victory over Temple. Penn State finally got a positive impact from its rushing attack against the Owls, rushing for 254 yards on 47 carries – just the 2nd time PSU has rushed for more than 162 yards in a game this season. The Nittany Lions should be able to churn out a few more yards this Saturday against an Illinois run-defense that ranks 124th nationally (allowing 266.9 rush YPG). A bigger concern for the Nittany Lions is the consistently poor performances they’re getting from QB Hackenberg. Hackenberg has just 3 TD compared to 10 INT over the past eight games and he has had three straight games where he finished with less than 47 percent completions. He still is just a sophomore and is working behind a truly terrible offensive line, but it’s a very disconcerting development for the former B1G freshman of the year. For Illinois, a bowl game is still in reach if the Illini can win the final two games of the season. The excitement over QB Wes Lunt’s return from injury was short-lived as he tossed for just 102 yards on 14-of-25 passing against Iowa last week. Illinois couldn’t run the ball either, tallying just 88 rush yards on 25 carries. Defensively the showing was even worse as the Illini allowed nearly 600 yards of total offense and 26 first downs. Penn State has won eight of the past 10, but few of them have been easy. Illinois covered seven of the 10 meetings, including three of the last four. Last year Penn State escaped in overtime, 24-17, in a very evenly matched contest. The road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings while the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four.

Northwestern (-1.5) @ Purdue – 12:00 PM EST

The Wildcats pulled off one of the most improbable outcomes of the season in the B1G with their 43-40 win at Notre Dame last week. Not only was it surprising, but it was also a hugely entertaining game that featured six lead changes and saw Northwestern come back from 11-down in the final five minutes to tie the game and send it to overtime. It ended a four-game losing skid and kept them alive for a bowl bid. Northwestern notched 547 total yards and 28 first downs and got solid performances from QB Siemian (284 pass yards) and RB Jackson (149 rush yards). The Wildcats can’t afford to sleep on a pesky Boilermakers squad this weekend. It was a good time for Purdue’s bye week as the Boilers have dropped four straight games, the last two coming in blowout fashion to Nebraska and Wisconsin. While it’s evident that the Boilers have made a ton of progress in year two under Darrell Hazell, it isn’t translating in the standings. Purdue was briefly able to make it a competitive game with Wisconsin, but in the end it was their fourth consecutive loss and second in a row by 17 points or more. Other than a 79-yard TD pass in the 3rd quarter against Wisconsin, Purdue really struggled to move the ball against the B1G’s best defense. Take away that 79-yarder, and Purdue managed just 151 total yards. They rushed 26 times for 26 yards and QB Appleby was largely ineffective (17-of-37 passing). Defensively they had no success slowing down the Badgers’ vaunted rushing attack (who has?) as Wisconsin rumbled for 264 rush yards on 42 carries (6.3 YPC). The Boilers will try to play spoiler as a win over the Wildcats would prevent them from going to a bowl game. This series has been almost exactly even as Purdue has won six of the last 10 outright and each has covered five of the last 10 games. Purdue won the last meeting in 2010. The Boilers have dropped two out of the last three home games with Northwestern, the last of which coming in 2009. Northwestern is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games following a win but just 4-10 ATS in the last 14 conference games. Purdue is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Showdowns

November 19, 2014

The Thursday night college football schedule ramps up this week with two major conference battles of great intrigue as the Big XII features Kansas State at West Virginia and the ACC features the matchup of nearby rivals North Carolina and Duke. Here is a quick look at both games to start off the new weekend in college football.

Match-up: Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers
Venue: Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, West Virginia
Date: Thursday, November 20, 2014
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET – FOX 1
Line: West Virginia -2
Last Meeting: 2013, at Kansas State (-13) 35-12

At 7-2, including 5-1 in Big XII play, Kansas State is still ranked #12 in the nation, but two of the three remaining games are difficult road games with this week’s test in Morgantown and a finale in Waco. Baylor, along with the TCU team that beat Kansas State two weeks ago, appear to be in a better position for the Big XII title and both have eyes on sneaking into the national playoff should there be a few upsets around the country in the remaining weeks of the schedule.

Kansas State has played three big games this season, losing in a tight Thursday night game in September at home against Auburn, squeaking by Oklahoma on the road in a game they were soundly out-gained in, and then losing by 21 at TCU in a key battle on top of the Big XII Conference. With Auburn and Oklahoma slipping in stature in recent weeks, it is possible that the Wildcats are an overrated team, but Coach Bill Snyder has an impressive track record and this is never a team anyone is overly interested in laying points against.

West Virginia opened the season with head coach Dana Holgorsen facing a critical season. After a somewhat messy takeover of the program in 2011, Holgorsen delivered a great debut season with 10 wins, including a blowout victory in the Orange Bowl. The move to the Big XII has been challenging with the Mountaineers going 6-12 in the conference play the past two seasons and missing the postseason last year. While it may not be a banner year for the program, the call has been answered with much better results this season through a very difficult schedule.

West Virginia is just 6-4 this season, but they have faced three of the top six teams in this week’s AP poll, giving Baylor its only loss and playing very competitively with both Alabama and TCU. West Virginia also lost to Oklahoma and Texas as the team has had nearly two weeks to recover from a loss in Austin that bumped the Mountaineers out of the rankings. This is the home finale for a team that will be back in the bowl picture and a program that has proven it can compete in the Big XII.

The statistics are fairly close for these teams on a per play basis though West Virginia is more productive for per game average, posting over 500 yards of offense per game. West Virginia is throwing 40 times per game for one of the more prolific passing offenses in the country. It has not come without turnovers as the Mountaineers have averaged over two turnovers per game, sitting -13 for one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. The focus of this game will be who can control the tempo with West Virginia running over 85 plays per game in contrast with Kansas State averaging fewer than 70 plays per game.

Kansas State has featured a strong run defense for the most part this season and the ground game will likely tell the story for the 'Cats having success Thursday night. Kansas State has won and covered convincingly in both meetings the past two seasons and the Wildcats are on an 18-5 ATS run as a road underdog going back to 2007. West Virginia is 17-28-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2006, but this should be a great home crowd and atmosphere under the lights for the final home game in Morgantown.

Match-up: North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, November 20, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Duke -6
Last Meeting: 2013, Duke (+5) 27-25 at North Carolina

Until last week’s one-point home loss to Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils were even starting to generate some conversation about being a national playoff team. At 8-2, those discussions are over, but Duke can win the ACC Coastal title and advance to the ACC championship game for a second straight season if they win out. Georgia Tech currently leads the division, through with its conference season at 6-2, but Duke beat the Yellow Jackets on the road in October. If Duke wins Thursday night, they should be in great shape for the division title as the finale is at home against Wake Forest, who is winless in ACC play.

Despite the success there are many red flags on Duke’s profile. The yardage statistics are nearly even on both sides of the ball and Duke has been out-gained by over 100 yards in four of six ACC contests while getting out-rushed in all but one conference game. Duke faced an embarrassingly weak non-conference schedule and three wins came by seven or fewer points with some fortunate plays going its way.

The statistics are very poor for North Carolina, but the Tar Heels have played one of the ACC’s toughest schedules. Projected by many as the favorite in the division, the Tar Heels are just 5-5 overall and 3-3 in league play with the wins all coming in the last four games after a 2-4 start to the season. North Carolina has a favorable matchup with NC State at home to close the season next week, as the postseason looks much more promising than it did a few weeks ago but this has been a disappointing team.

North Carolina has allowed 512 yards per game this season on 6.5 yards per play and the numbers have been equally bad against the run or the pass. On offense, North Carolinas has been one-dimensional with the running game struggling most of the season and the Tar Heels have been out-gained in eight of the last nine games including all six ACC games. The four FBS wins for North Carolina have come by a grand combined total of 15 points with one of those wins being a late comeback last week with a touchdown in the final minute. This was a very even game last season with Duke winning 27-25 and the Blue Devils won 33-30 two years ago in the last home meeting. Those wins ended a long series win streak for North Carolina between these schools that sit about eight miles apart.

Duke is 19-13 ATS in this series since 1982, but North Carolina has won S/U in 26 of the last 34 meetings. North Carolina is just 5-9-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2010 and in five road games this season, North Carolina has allowed 244 points, surrendering at least 47 points in four of the five games. Duke is on a 12-3 ATS run as a home favorite since 2012 and the Blue Devils are 7-3 ATS overall this season though many of the covers have come by slim margins.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Friday's games
Rice won seven of last eight games with UTEP, scoring 39.3 ppg in last three; Miners lost last four visits here, by 38-4-1-8 points. Underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in last 12 series games, five of last seven here. Owls are 6-1 as favorites this year; undefeated Marshall ended their six-game win streak last week. UTEP won four of its last five games, covering all five; they're 3-2 as road dogs this season. Miners allowed 16.5 ppg last four games, after allowing 37.2 ppg in first six.

San Diego State won last four games with Air Force; Falcons lost four of last five visits here, losing 28-9/27-25 in last two. Underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in last 16 series games, 5-2 in last seven here. Air Force won last four games, scoring 37.8 ppg; they're 2-1 as underdogs this year, are 3-6 in last nine games as a road dog. Aztecs blew 20-0 lead at Boise in 38-29 loss last week; they're 2-4 in last six games as home favorites. San Diego State is 5-0 if it allows 21 or less points, 0-5 if it allows more.

Utah State won last five games with San Jose State, covering four times, averaging 278.6 rushing yards; they won 40-12/49-27 the last two years. Spartans lost three of last four visits here, losing by 1-15-7. Aggies are way down the QB depth chart; they are 3-4 as favorites this year, 0-4 when laying double digits. San Jose lost last four games, none by more than 14 points; they lost 13-0 at home last week but never punted, with three missed FGs, three turnovers, losing ball three times on downs.




NCAAF

Friday, November 21

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Game of the Day: Air Force at San Diego State
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Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs (-6, 50.5)

Few teams in the Mountain West Conference are running as hot as the Air Force Falcons, who carry a four-game winning streak into a Friday night encounter with the host San Diego State Aztecs. Air Force wasn't as sharp defensively last time out as it would have liked, but got a Shayne Davern touchdown in overtime to upend Nevada 45-38. The Falcons have leaned on the run game all season, ranked eighth in the nation at 288.4 yards per game.

It may be a good time for Air Force to catch the Aztecs, who have dropped two of their last three to fall to the .500 mark in conference play. San Diego State has had one of the strongest defensive units in the country so far this season but fell flat last weekend, surrendering 399 total yards in a 38-29 defeat at the hands of Boise State. The Aztecs are a perfect 4-0 so far at Qualcomm Stadium in 2014, scoring at least 34 points in three of those contests.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened -4 but has since jumped two points. The over/under has risen a half-point to 50.5.

INJURY REPORT: Air Force: OL Sevrin Remmo (foot) is questionable. RB Jacobi Owens (foot) is doubtful. LB Joey Nichol (groin) and OL Allen Caunitz (ankle) are out. San Diego State: DL Alex Barrett (foot) is doubtful. LB Jake Fely (wrist) is out.

WEATHER REPORT: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies and calm winds.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Just how run-reliant are the Falcons? They've racked up a whopping 628 carries through 10 games, with 26 touchdowns and 15 different players registering at least one rush attempt. Jacobi Owens leads the way with 204 attempts for 1,054 yards and five scores, but he's doubtful with a foot injury - leaving quarterback Kale Pearson (143 carries, 587 yards, six TDs) and Shayne Davern (80 carries, 340 yards, five TDs) to pick up the slack in his absence.

ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 1-9 O/U): The Aztecs are led by running back sensation Donnel Pumphrey, who erupted for 147 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries against Boise State and has seven 100-yard games on his resume this season. Quarterback Quinn Kaehler was solid in a win over Idaho two weeks ago, throwing for 249 yards and three touchdowns, but had just 173 yards and a score in last week's defeat. San Diego State has just nine receiving touchdowns on the year, with no player recording more than two.

TRENDS:

* Air Force is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win.
* San Diego State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games.
* Over is 7-1 in the Falcons' last eight November games.
* Under is 9-1 in the Aztecs' last 10 games.

CONSENSUS: Voters are 54.54 percent in favor of Air Force +6.


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NCAAF

Friday, November 21


Aztecs still top under team, despite first over

In their last matchup against Boise State, San Diego State managed to tally their first over of the season. The Aztecs now have a 1-9 over/under mark on the season, which is the top under record in the nation.

SDSU has averaged 24.1 points per game this season, while their defense has been stellar holding teams to a mere 22 ppg. Despite games involving the Aztecs averaging just 46.1 points, the average total for their games have been nearly 55.

The current total for San Diego State hosting Air Force is 50.5.


San Jose State's defense a boon for overs

After starting trending towards the under, San Jose State's defense has fallen apart causing the team to become a hot over play. In the past five games, the Spartans are 4-1 over/under with their defense allowing an average of 30 points per game.

San Jose State travels to Utah State with a total currently set at 46.


UTEP cashing out against the spread this season

Through the NCAAF season, there have been few teams better at covering the spread than UTEP. The Miners are a stellar 8-2 against the spread, including a perfect 5-0 in their last five contests.

In the eight games the Miners have covered, they have covered by an average of 15 points per game. UTEP is also a perfect 4-0 ATS when they have been favorites this season.

UTEP is currently +7.5 against Rice Friday.

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 13

November 20, 2014


There are just two weekends of Atlantic Coast Conference regular season football left, and there are still some HUGE games to be played. Thursday's North Carolina-Duke game will have a huge impact on whether or not Duke has a chance to return to the ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech can just sit idly by and watch, as they're off this week and done with their ACC portion of the schedule in an odd twist. They play rival Georgia next week after their bye. If the Blue Devils slip up against UNC or Wake Forest next week, Georgia Tech is in.

One of the more underrated games on the card this weekend might be Louisville-Notre Dame. The game has lost a lot of luster since the Irish have gone in the tank recently, but this still could be a very entertaining game. It's very important for Louisville, who could get a signature road win and secure an upper-tier bowl with a win. Nationally, not many have talked about this game, but it looks good on paper.

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 6-4 3-3 6-4 4-5-1

Clemson 7-3 6-2 4-6 4-6

Duke 8-2 4-2 6-3-1 2-7

Florida State 10-0 7-0 3-7 4-6

Georgia Tech 9-2 6-2 7-4 6-5

Louisville 7-3 5-3 6-4 3-6-1

Miami (Fla.) 6-4 3-3 5-5 3-7

North Carolina 5-5 3-3 4-6 5-4

North Carolina State 6-5 2-5 6-5 5-5-1

Pittsburgh 4-6 2-4 3-6-1 5-4-1

Syracuse 3-7 1-5 4-6 2-7-1

Virginia 4-6 2-4 6-3-1 3-7

Virginia Tech 5-5 2-4 4-6 3-6

Wake Forest 2-8 0-6 5-5 3-7


North Carolina at Duke (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:30p.m. ET)

The Tar Heels are looking to secure bowl eligibility, and an even bigger prize would be knocking their rivals out of contention for the ACC Championship Game. While UNC is 4-1 ATS in their past five games, they are just 5-11 ATS in their past 16 road games - even though this is just a short jaunt up 15-501, and essentially a home game just eight miles or so from campus. I'll be at this game, and it doesn't come close to their rivalry on the hardwood, but lately it has been a spirited battle when the Battle of the Blues takes place on the gridiron. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five installments of this series. Duke is 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight at home, and 15-5-1 ATS in their past 21 games overall, not including last week's disappointing 17-16 home loss to Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Virginia Tech has been an odd team to figure out. They have road wins against ranked teams Ohio State and Duke, but don't count them out from laying an egg in a game they are supposed to win. They're installed as 15-point road favorites in Winston-Salem this weekend, but they're still just 2-10-1 ATS in their past 13 against a team with a losing record, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight ACC games. They're also 3-12 ATS in their next 15 following an ATS win. Wake Forest simply cannot score. The under has hit in 22 of their past 29 games overall, and is 19-7 in their past 26 ACC battles. The under is also 5-1 in their past six home outings. Virginia Tech has had the under come in four times in the past five, and is 6-1 in their past seven conference battles. Still, a college line of 39 screams stay away. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, with the Hokies 4-0 ATS in the past four.

Syracuse at Pittsburgh (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)

The only interesting thing about this game is the Panthers trying to keep their flickering bowl eligibility hopes alive. Does Pitt even deserve it after their up-and-down season? The Orange head in 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, and 4-0 ATS in their past four against a team with a losing overall record, and they're 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on grass. Pitt is on a slide, going 1-3-1 ATS in their past five conference tilts, 1-4 ATS in their past five home outings, and 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight overall. However, Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against Syracuse, and 4-0-1 ATS in their past five against the Orange overall. The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings between these two former Big East rivals. Pittsburgh is favored by seven and a hook, and that seems a bit extreme, but it's hard to back the 'Cuse, too.

Georgia State at Clemson (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

Clemson is a 40.5-point favorite against the Panthers of the Sun Belt, making the quick trip up I-85 to the upstate. The Tigers are done in ACC play, finishing up with South Carolina next week. Might they be looking ahead to a rivalry game they desperately need to win? It's uncertain if the team will risk playing QB Deshaun Watson (knee) in this game, or try to keep him healthy for the 'Cocks. Watson suffered a lateral collateral ligament injury in last week's game, but avoided the dreaded ACL tear some feared. QB Cole Stoudt has been atrocious when leading this offense, and the Panthers might be the play with 40 points to play with if the backup gets the nod as expected.

Louisville at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m.)

This game features a pair of 7-3 teams, but one team is happy to be where they are, while another is stunned to have three losses after such high hopes just a few weeks ago. Louisville comes in with a freshman QB Reggie Bonnafon leading the way after Will Gardner (knee) was lost for the season due to a season-ending knee injury. Still, the Cardinals have given him experience, and he has shown he is a good thrower and a dual threat. Louisville is 5-2 ATS in its past seven against teams with a winning record, and 23-8 ATS in the past 31 road games, but that all appears out the window with a frosh under center. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record, although they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. Still, as three-point favorites at home, you have to like Everett Golson, even with all of his mistakes, over a newbie signal caller.

Boston College at Florida State (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)

The Eagles hit the road for a somber Tallahassee following on-campus shootings. Not that it is important, but the school has announced all athletic events will be played as scheduled. Condolensces to the victims of such a senseless tragedy. Boston College heads in 9-1 ATS in their past 10 following an ATS loss, and they're 11-5 ATS in their next 16 games following offensive production of 20 or fewer points in their previous outing. However, they're still just 5-11 ATS in the past 16 road games. Florida State heads in just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 overall, and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home. But they're sure to come out with a lot of emotion, and the football game serves as a catharsis for the Florida State community. At 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games against a team with a winning record, and emotion on their side, we might see the best from the Seminoles all season. The newly re-crowned No. 1 team in the land is a 17-point favorite.

Miami-Florida at Virginia (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)

Virginia looks to end its slide and keep their bowl hopes alive with a win against Miami. The Hurricanes look for a rare road victory to keep their possibilities of a decent bowl alive. The Canes are just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and 6-14 ATS in their past 20 against a team with a losing record. Including last weekend's crushing home loss to Florida State, a game which they looked to be in control at times, they're just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 conference outings. Will there be any hangover at Scott Stadium for UM? Virginia covered last week, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine against a team with a winning record. They're also 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven at home. They're a 5.5-point dog on their own grass, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. However, the road team is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over has hit in four of the past five meetings, too, although the under has been the play for both sides this season. The under is 6-0 in Miami's past six ACC games, and 4-1 in their past five on the road. The under is 5-0 in UVA's past five overall, and 7-0 in their past seven conference tilts.

BYE WEEKS
Georgia Tech, North Carolina State

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's SEC Showdowns

November 20, 2014

**Ole Miss at Arkansas**

-- As of late Thursday, most books had Ole Miss (8-2 straight up, 6-3-1 against the spread) listed as a 3.5-point favorite for Saturday's showdown in Fayetteville. The total was 45.5 points. The Razorbacks were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).

-- I've been saying all year that Arkansas (5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS) is going to clip at least one SEC West powerhouse. One down, two to go. The Razorbacks broke out the cream cheese and handed LSU a bagel Saturday night in Fayetteville. It brought a 17-game losing streak against SEC foes to an end. At long last, Hog Fans can put the Bobby Petrino Disaster behind them and look forward to a bright future under Bret Beliema.

-- Arkansas won a 17-0 decision over LSU as a one-point home favorite. The defense completely stymied LSU's offense, holding it to 123 yards of total offense. The Tigers could muster just 35 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins both rushed for one TD apiece for the Hogs.

-- Arkansas has covered the spread at an 8-1 clip in its last nine games. The Razorbacks have been dynamite at home this year, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.

-- Ole Miss has had two weeks to prep for Hogs. After dropping a 35-31 heartbreaker to Auburn three weeks ago, the Rebels stroked Presbyterian 48-0 but came up just shy of covering the 50.5-point spread. Bo Wallace threw a pair of TD passes and ran for another score. Jordan Wilkins ran for 171 yards and one TD on 10 carries, while Mark Dodson rushed for 128 yards and two TDs on just three totes.

-- For the season, Wallace has a 22/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and four rushing TDs. He must play out the rest of the season without his favorite target in sophomore WR Laquon Treadwell.

-- Arkansas QB Brandon Allen has vastly improved this season after struggling with a shoulder injury for much of the 2013 campaign. Allen has a 15/5 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing scores.

-- Williams has rushed for a team-high 932 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Collins has run for 886 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC.

-- As a road favorite during Hugh Freeze's tenure, the Rebels own a 3-3 spread record. Arkansas is 2-3 ATS as a home 'dog on Bielema's watch.

-- Ole Miss has won back-to-back games over Arkansas, but the Razorbacks took the money in last year's 34-24 loss in Oxford as 17-point underdogs. The Rebels won 30-27 as 6.5-point 'dogs in their last trip to Fayetteville.

-- The 'over' is 6-4 overall for Arkansas, 4-2 in its home games. The Hogs have seen their games average a combined score of 56.2 points per game.

-- The 'under' is 7-2 overall for Ole Miss, 3-0 in its road games. The Rebels have seen their games average a combined score of 45.3 PPG.

-- The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals.

-- CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Vanderbilt at Mississippi State**

-- As of Thursday, most betting shops had Mississippi State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) installed as a 30.5-point favorite with a total of 53 for 'over/under' wagers. 5Dimes has the Commodores available on the money line for a monster 45/1 payout (risk $100 to win $4,500).

-- Dan Mullen's team went down for the first time last week in Tuscaloosa, dropping a 25-20 decision at Alabama. However, Mississippi State covered the number in backdoor fashion thanks to Dak Prescott's four-yard TD pass to Jameon Lewis on fourth down with 15 seconds remaining. The scoring strike allowed the Bulldogs to take the cash as 10-point underdogs.

-- Despite throwing a pair of TD passes and accounting for 290 passing yards and 82 rushing yards, Prescott had his worst game of the season. He was intercepted three times, including a terrible pick deep in the red zone in the third quarter to end an outstanding drive. Prescott has been intercepted eight times in the last four SEC games. The performance at 'Bama all but ended Prescott's realistic hopes of winning the Heisman Trophy, although he's still a strong candidate to be invited to New York City.

-- Josh Robinson rushed for only 37 yards on 12 carries against the Crimson Tide. It was his second-lowest output this year. Nevertheless, Robinson surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the season. He now has 1,021 rushing yards, 11 TDs and a 6.5 YPC average.

-- For the season, Prescott has a 20/10 TD-INT ratio and 11 rushing scores.

-- As a home favorite during Mullen's tenure, MSU has compiled a 15-10 spread record.

-- This is a classic sandwich spot for the Bulldogs, who are coming off a huge game and have the biggest Egg Bowl showdown in decades on deck next week.

-- Vanderbilt (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) was on a 5-1 ATS run until its last outing when Florida came into Nashville and captured a 34-10 win as a 14-point road 'chalk.' Johnny McCrary threw a TD pass to give the Commodores an early 7-0 advantage, but he was intercepted twice later in the game. He finished with 160 passing yards.

-- McCrary, a redshirt freshman, will make his fourth career start in Starkville. He has completed 53.5 percent of his throws for 806 yards with a 9/6 TD-INT ratio.

-- Vandy redshirt freshman RB Ralph Webb has run for a team-high 838 yards and three TDs. He's averaging 4.5 YPC. Webb is the man for the present and the future for Derek Mason, who dismissed junior RB Jerron Seymour from the program on Thursday. Seymour had 14 rushing TDs in 2003, but he was only given 25 carries this year. Mason also booted junior RB Brian Kimbrow earlier this season.

-- Vandy has thrived as a road underdog for a solid decade, including this season. The Commodores are 3-0 ATS as road 'dogs this year. Going back to 2004, they own a 30-13-1 spread record in 44 games as road puppies.

-- Since 1989, these SEC rivals have met only seven times. Mississippi State is 6-1 both SU and ATS in those seven encounters. The last meeting was in 2009 when MSU collected a 15-3 win as an 8.5-point road underdog.

-- Totals have been a wash both overall (5-5) and at home (3-3) for Mississippi State

-- Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for Vandy, too. It has seen the 'under' go 2-1 in its three road assignments.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Vandy hasn't beaten a top-10 foe since besting sixth-ranked South Carolina on Oct. 20 of 2007.

-- Vandy has played an FBS-high 31 freshmen this year.

-- Just when Butch Jones seemed to be getting it going with back-to-back wins at South Carolina and vs. Kentucky, Tennessee got bad news earlier this week. Senior linebacker A.J. Johnson and sophomore CB Michael Williams have been suspended indefinitely from all team-related activities pending the result of a police investigation. Johnson and Williams are facing sexual-assault allegations stemming from an incident in Knoxville early Sunday morning. Also, DB Brian Randolph is suspended for the first half of Saturday's home game vs. Missouri. Johnson leads the SEC in tackles with 101, while Williams has started five games and made 23 tackles. Randolph has 76 tackles, one forced fumble and one interception. As of Thursday, most books had the Volunteers favored by 3.5 points.

-- After winning a 34-27 decision at Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog, Missouri has taken the cash in eight consecutive road assignments. Going back to 2007, the Tigers are on a 25-9 ATS run in their last 34 road games.

-- Florida is 7-14 ATS as a home favorite during Will Muschamp's tenure. As of late Thursday afternoon, a line had not yet been released for the Gators' home finale Saturday vs. Eastern Kentucky. A number should be out late Thursday or early Friday.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 13

November 21, 2014


We've rounded the corner and are heading for home. After this weekend's slate, there is just one more regular season week left of Pac-12 action, and all the dust will have settled and we'll know where everyone is heading to play their postseason games. Seven teams are already bowl eligible, and either Stanford or California will join that list since they each play each other, battling for a sixth overall win. ORegon State could also join the club with a road win in Seattle.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 8-2 5-2 3-7 3-7

Arizona State 8-2 5-2 5-5 4-6

California 5-5 3-5 7-3 6-4

Colorado 2-8 0-7 5-5 6-4

Oregon 9-1 6-1 6-4 6-3-1

Oregon State 5-5 2-5 3-7 5-4-1

Southern California 7-3 6-2 6-4 4-6

Stanford 5-5 3-4 4-6 2-7

UCLA 8-2 5-2 3-7 4-5-1

Utah 7-3 4-3 8-2 3-6-1

Washington 6-5 2-5 5-6 4-7

Washington State 3-7 2-5 4-6 5-5

Washington State at Arizona State (Pac-12 Network, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Arizona State heads home looking to bounce back after a loss at Oregon State, while Washington State actually beat Oregon State last time out. The Cougars are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 road games, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five conference games. The Sun Devils have struggled against the lesser teams, but they usually take care of business against winning teams. They're 5-1 ATS in their past six against teams with a losing record, and 10-3 ATS in their past 13 at home against a team with a losing road record. In this series, the favorite has cashed in 11 of the past 16 meetings, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five. Washington State is also just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Arizona State.

Arizona at Utah (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Arizona and Utah are battling for a better bowl bid in this game. The Wildcats are just 1-4 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. They're also 1-6 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. Utah have been cover kings lately, cashing in eight of their past nine against teams with a winning record. They're also 5-1 ATS in their past six conference tilts, and 5-1 ATS in their past six following a straight-up win. All series trends appear to point to Arizona, as the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings between these sides. The underdog is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and the road team has hit in four of the past five.

Stanford at California (FOX Sports 1, 4:00 p.m.)

Not many expected 'The Game' to feature a pair of 5-5 clubs. While California probably has overachieved at some points this season to get to .500, Stanford's .500 record is an abject failure. The Cardinal are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference games, and 0-5 ATS in their past five road tilts. Cal has covered seven of their 10 games this season, although they are still just 3-12 ATS in their past 15 games at home. The road team has dominated the series lately, going 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Cal enters as a six-point underdog at home.

Colorado at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 4:30 p.m.)

The Ducks are favored by 32 1/2 points in this one, and many will be taking the home team. The Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games, 5-0 ATS in their past five overall and 26-10-2 ATS in their past 38 against a team with a losing record. They're also coming off a bye, and they're 12-5 ATS in their past 17 after a week of rest. For Colorado, they're just 18-38 ATS in their past 56 road games, although they are an impressive 7-3 ATS in their past 10 conference tilts. The over might be a popular play, too. The over is 5-1 in Colorado's past six, 10-2 in their past 12 against a winning team, and 9-3 in their past 12 road contests. The over is 4-0-1 in Oregon's past five, 5-2 in their past seven against a losing team, and 35-15-1 in their past 51 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. The total sits at 72 1/2.

Southern California at UCLA (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)

Not long ago this was THE game in what was the Pac-10, and it's good to see both teams relevant in the same season to make this a marquee game again. The Trojans have had their troubles against the Bruins, covering just one of their past five trips to the Rose Bowl. The home team has cashed in eight of the past 11 meetings in this rivalry. USC is just 5-13 ATS in their past 18 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 road outings against a team with a winning home mark. UCLA is 3-7 ATS in their past 10, although they're 15-6 ATS in their past 21 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Oregon State at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)

If there is to be any late night Pac-12 magic, it will have to come in Oregon State-Washington. This season, the final game on the conference slate has usually been a doozy. The Beavers won last week, but they're still just 1-4 ATS in their past five conference battles and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. Washington has covered four of their past five following a straight-up loss, but they're also just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 on a field turf surface, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven following a cover. Oregon State is 17-8-1 ATS in their past 26 road games against a team with a winning home record, and they have dominated this series lately. OSU is 5-1 ATS in their past six trips to the shores of Puget Sound, and 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings with U-Dub. The dog has hit in four straight. Oregon State is currently a six-point underdog.